November 14, 2023 • 55 mins
UFC returns to Vegas this weekend as Brendan Allen and Paul Craig will headling UFC Vegas 82!
Host Dave Ross is joined by Lou Finocchiaro, Dan Vreeland, Jordan Sherwood, and Reed Kuhn to deliver all their best bets!
Plus former NFL LB Shawne Merriman stops by to talk all things MMA!!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Welcome to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host
Dave Ross.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
For the next how we're gonna break down UFC Fight
Night coming up this Saturday night, a middleweight clash between
Brendan Allen and Paul Craig, big favorite here in Brendan Awen.
We'll get to that and maybe some pathways to victory
for both. But before we look ahead, let's look back
at what we saw at UFC two to ninety five
Exhale two title belts on the line at Madison Square Garden.
(00:39):
There he is Alex Pahara, now a two division champ
after knocking out ur A pro Hashka via TKO in
round number two. Maybe a fight he was losing up
until that point, but that power that Poeton has is
devastating and he knocks out ur A pro Hashka to
claim that strap and the comin event, we have a
(01:00):
new interim heavyweight.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Champion of the world. His name is Tom Aspinall from
England as he.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Walks through Sergey Pavlovitch in around number one with the KO.
There so two new title contenders and champions now on
the scene at both white heavyweight and heavyweight. Without further ado,
let's bring the man. You can file on X as
I do at Gamblu. He is the one and only
Loof and Kara, the host of About Business podcast Lou.
I was admittedly on the wrong side, but I was
(01:28):
thrilled nonetheless to see what we saw in the Komaine
In the main event, What is your takeaway from an
absolutely wild night at Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
First day? Thanks for having me on eye side stepped
both of those fights. I did get Peira Perchowska to
start too. I had asked Spinal Pavlovitch to start round two.
I thought Pavlovitch could make it at least that far.
For him to be done that way, like overar Eim
(01:59):
did the him and his debut against a guy in
Aspinall with a strained back. We've come to learn it
really drops Pavlovich a few notch in my notches in
my book. It takes nothing away from Aspinall, who unfortunately
has no shot at getting steep A or John Jones.
And we're just going to have to see how they
(02:21):
dole the whole thing out. But overall, New York City,
what a great card top to bottom. And now we
go from having some shine on a big card to
going to a card with less name recognition, five debuting fighters.
But this card is deep and rife and betting opportunity,
and Lou.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
That's exactly the point here, because you have a star
started event like UFC two ninety five, and then you
kind of ex sale and then you have this card
you go, oh, well, this isn't going to draw the attention.
This is a draws people like you and gets your
attention because as you mentioned, you sidestepped the comaine and
the main last week because you have better betting opportunities
this week's get to that main event here in this one.
(03:01):
Because you do look at Brendan Allen, you can understand
why he's such a big favorite here over Paul Craig.
But what's interesting is if the fight gets to the ground,
is where Paul Craig, obviously we know, can be dangerous here.
Is it as simple as that in your estimation that
if Brennan Allen keeps his fight standing, he should be
(03:22):
almost what a over four dollars betting favorite as we
have here on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Dave, I don't think Brendan Allen should be over a
four dollars favorite in this fight in any way, shape
or form. I don't believe his striking is enough to
expose Craig. Let's not forget Craig thought at two to
oh five, he's two inches taller. He's going to have
a reach advantage when the night of the fight occurs.
Craig's going to be much the larger, heavier man in
(03:51):
this fight. And we've seen as lacking as Craig is
in stand up, it's evolving and is lacking as Allen
is in IQ, he's been able to masquerrate it over
the last few fights. Allen is not going to be
able to hold himself back from trying to beat Craig
(04:13):
at his own game if he follows the plan, and
that said plan will be tire Craig out a little bit,
get him desperate on the feet, then take him down
to do it. I believe that's Allan's plan. I believe
he has the ability to execute that plan. But you're
dealing with a guy with some shaky IQ and a
(04:34):
guy in Craig that is massive next to Alan, and
you got to give him his respect. I think, even
though he's so singularly dimensioned.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
And that is fascinating, that really for Paul Craig, and
I love the way you phrased it.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
It's not a strength by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
The hands game, right, and we've seen this before like
Damian Maya comes to mind, where you have a specialist, right,
like Kron Gracie still has not learned how to use
his hands at all.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Craig has. So I look at the total.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Here and it's set right now at a round and
a half, remember five round here, main event and basically
minus star ten for a round and a half. Can
Paul Craig survive enough to make this over playable in
your mind?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
That one and a half with a pick to the
you know to the under over indicates a submission by
Craig to me, That's how I read this.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
Again.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
I may be flawed and how I'm approaching Alan's approach
to this fight, but Alan has to take this. If
Alan goes.
Speaker 4 (05:44):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
All to the wall for lack of a better term,
then I don't think this is the way he wins.
I think he runs right into a submission for when
he's dry and given Craig every chance he has to
win the fight. No, I think the al inside has
taking this fight into a couple rounds on their side.
(06:07):
I've been wrong before, plenty wrong. I could be wrong here,
but I think that I really like the over looking
at that total, as do I.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
I got to a first glance here, and these lines
get populated, which is why I love when we do
the shows. We try to get those two You kind
of hot off the press, if you will. And what's
fascinating to me too, lou Is you look at just
if you want to just take Paul Craig as a
dog at plus three thirty, you can do that. The
submission price is not that much higher five to one.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Is that the only pathway that we possibly see?
Speaker 2 (06:38):
I mean, you could get a bizarre club and sub
if somehow he hurts Brendan out on the ground or
he gets him in the comprising position, that's nine to one.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
But if you're on the Craig side, do you take
the added value of the five to one sub price?
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yeah, I think there's enough price difference to make it worthwhile.
I also believe it's the most and singular logical app
for Craig to earn victory is to jeopardize Allen on
a mistake. Yeah, and it'll be an IQ mistake for
Allen if he makes one.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
That's a great way to phrase it right there.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
If he makes a mistake, it'll be one that Craig's
going to look to take advantage of, certainly in a
submission type scenario. There so probably playable in LU and
I's both of our eyes here at five to one.
I want to get to a couple of fights that
are intriguing to me for a couple of different reasons. One,
you've got the Youngster and Chase Hooper back in there
against the Monkey King and Jordan Levitt, And right now
(07:31):
you're seeing Chase as a solid two twenty five betting
favorite against Levitt, and you know Levitt is They're both
got a comical in their own way. I've seen them
on social media this week. And you got a young
kid in here at twenty four, but it's not like
Jordan's that much older at twenty eight. He can be
one of those unorthodox type fighters against a guy in
Chase who's starting to round out his MMA game.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
What do you make of this match up here on
the main on the main card.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
I'm glad you picked this one, Dave, and I'm going
to try and remain monotone here because I believe this
Vice fight is mispriced. I look at Levitt as a man,
he doesn't act that way. He's goofy and geeky, but
he's married, he has a family, and he has goals,
and his goals include staying in the UFC. If he
(08:21):
loses this fight, he's out. Chase has done very well,
but he's a gangly young kid, and he's actually showed
even better since he went to fifty five from one
forty five. But he's not ready yet for a twenty
eight year old man in Levitt that's desperate that needs
(08:42):
to stay. This fight's miss priced. I like Levitt as
an underdog.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, I think you get some live dogs at are
barking here the co main event. You got Jake Matthews
from Australia and there solid underdog right here. We're seeing
at plus two thirty against Michael Morales. Is this a
potential spot where another dog could be barking.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
No question about it.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
This one.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
The story is the experience and inconsistency on the Matthews
side against the guy in Morales. It's looked great, but
he hasn't been in with near the ilk that has
competed against Matthews. Albeit Matthews has had uneven results, but
he comes in ready to bounce again off a loss,
and I think Matthews is dangerous. Do I look at
(09:27):
Matthews as a potential bet on I'm not sure if
I'm that far this at this point in the week.
But what you're showing now total rounds over one and
a half, over one and a half minus one eighty five,
I'll be looking at that over starts round three even
(09:47):
that kind of a prop here, because I don't believe
the young kid's gonna get Matthews out of there.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
And you see there, Lou, without picking a winner, that
this fight just hits the cards plus a dour sixteen.
I know you're looking at to begin round three? Is
that something kind of in an elevator, if you will,
we call it these days, If you have the fight
to go over one and a half, then maybe to
start around two or start round three rather? Would you
look at that as another playable piece here plus a
dollar sixty that the fight hits the cards.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
Abe, I'm starting to get nervous that you're anticipating how
I look at these fights correctly. But that's exactly right.
If I like that over one and a half, my
next challenge is how do I get rid of minus
one eighty five, and so I have to take it up.
That's exactly how I would approach it.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
I always say that I feel better when what I'm
thinking matches what our experts think on the show.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
So you're already making me feel better about this fight card, Lough.
I want to get into a couple things here.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Got about a minute ago, tell the people about the
sneak teep this week that you've already given out and
what they get on the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
The sneak Teep is simply a Monday look at the
opening lines, and really it's a great practice for me
to sharpen my steel, and it's a great way to
really I'm reading lines that early in the week. And
on some of those debuting fighters, one of the debuters
has gone from dog to favorite. Three of them have
gotten bet out of their minds. And then in one
(11:10):
of the debuting fights, the debuter is a five or
six hundred favorite, the young man tellot. So I'll be
watching those. I think in those three fights with the debuters,
you might find some information on the sneak peep regarding
those fights, and.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
That is why you get to check out the bout
Business podcast Loop Nikara. Always appreciate you, my friend, and
enjoy the fights. We'll catch up again when do you
take a break for the UFC next week, So it'll
be the week after that when we see Lou back
here on the program.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Don't go in here much more to get to just
getting it.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Started alright here at his first strike on VS. Before
(12:07):
you make your next wager, be sure to visit vison
dot com check the current betting splits data. I want
to know where the money and bets are moving for
every single game. With the betting splits pages updated with
drafting zods every five minutes.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
You can see the changes in all.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
The action, find out where the public is betting based
in the number of tickets, and where the money doesn't
match the public opinion. You can check out not just
today's action, but future events as well. Betting splits another way.
Vson is here to make you a smarter, better year round.
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vson
dot com. It's time to ship up to Boston to
catch up with our guy Dan Reeland. You can follow
him on X as I do at Gumbyreland, and he's
(12:40):
all over the MMA space. Dan, tell the peeps where
they can find you on so many different outlets.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
You can find me writing at both the Sportscambling podcast
dot com and cage Side Press, which is where I
do most of my MMA writing. And then you can
also hear me on podcasts in book those places, the
SGPN MMA podcast and the Top Turtle MMA podcast on
Cagey Press where I interview a few of these fighters
on this card this week.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Oh I love that.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Before I get to that and pick up what you've
been able to glean from the fighters in action this week,
we always love to ask you the fight you can't
wait to wager on, and the fight you can't wait
to watch?
Speaker 6 (13:17):
The fight I can't wait to watch.
Speaker 7 (13:18):
It's easy.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
It's Jonathan Piers versus Joe Anderson bree Too. I've always
been a big fan of Jonathan Pierce. I think his
size is really intriguing in this weight class. I think
the speed of jo Anderson bree Too is like an
interesting challenge that he's never dealt with, so I'm seeing
a close line. I think it makes a lot of sense.
These two are both dangerous in very different ways. So
I'm just looking forward to seeing how how that one
(13:39):
plays out. The one I'm hoping to wager on in
the one of the most excited to wager on is
one that's probably not even on your board yet.
Speaker 6 (13:47):
Christian Leroy Duncan.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Was supposed to fight Caesar Almeida, and I've got a
little bit of insider information. Almeida out of that fight
with an infection. Insert welter weight from the regional scene.
What the bec oral buy? Who is a little known
guy out of LFA who is an absolute beast of
a wrestler. I'm guessing because he's coming in here on
short notice and at.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
Least I'm big told he is.
Speaker 5 (14:08):
He's gonna come in here as a very steep price,
and I think he's gonna wrestle Leroy Duncan two deaths.
So look for that guy as soon as he comes
on the board.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
That is not on the board, but that is breaking
news here from Dan Freeland. Wow to be watching that
for maybe fading Christian Leroy Duncan here with that news
of Gummy Vreeland. So we'll wait until see what those
numbers get populated as the week goes on, but that
is not on the.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Board just yet. So literally, fresh off the presses from Boston. Okay,
let's get to this.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Main event here, because again, you know after UFC two
ninety five sometimes.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
You go, ah, this card.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I am intrigued by the main event, right because you
look at Brendan Allen. This is guy in the middleweight division.
And we talked to Lufinicar in the last segment. You know,
maybe if he can stay on schedule and stay disciplined,
you can understand why he's over a four dollar betting favorite.
But Paul Craig is a guy you don't want to
mess with. If the fight hits the ground, he's gonna
look for unorthodox submissions.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Should Allen be this big a favorite to you, Dan,
what do you think?
Speaker 5 (15:08):
No, not at all, and both because of the thing
you just pointed out with him sometimes making a bad
decision and going somewhere he shouldn't in two We've only
really seen Paul Craig at this weight class one time, right,
and in that one time, his wrestling seems to be
playing up quite a bit, right, because that was the
knock on him at L like heavyweight. He's not a
(15:28):
big enough guy, not with good enough wrestling to be
taken down these bigger light heavyweight dudes drop him down
a weight class and suddenly his size plays up, his
wrestling plays up. Will it play up against Brendan Allen
that much? I'm not sure Brendan Allen's a good grappler,
but that much to be you know, over a three
to one underdog here, that price is wacky as all
(15:50):
can be. I think Paul Craig is the only possible
bet you can have here with value, and that includes
all the props on Brendan Allen.
Speaker 6 (15:57):
This is a dogg or a pass spot for me.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
And again, if you're looking at Craig's pathways to victory,
is it sub and sub only because that's five to
one instead of the plus three thirty or do you think?
Speaker 1 (16:07):
I mean?
Speaker 2 (16:08):
Dare I say, could he get a ground and pounded
that fight hits the ground and gets him in a
unorthodox position nine to one? If you think he could
do that. But it's got to be on the ground
in some capacity, right.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
I would think it's got to be on the ground.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
I would say you're not getting enough extra value on
the submission prop to play here with Paul Craig, and
I'll just be honest. I remember being burned by Paul
Craig versus Showgun Huah, he grounded, pounded out showgun hua,
and I was like, there was no way ko showgun
who from Paul Craig was going to happen, and then
it did.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
So unless I'm getting a big enough bump in the.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
Odds there, I don't like Paul Craig in any particular
method because he's already such a value here on the
money line.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
We see some weird things in main events recently, and
certainly one comes to mind Jelton. I'll not being able
to finish terrec Lewis, but I'm gonna try to.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Let that go. Okay.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
You mentioned and Britten has who does a great job
putting together these shows. He wrote on the rundown with
a fight card feature so many debutants, Like we don't
use debutants in the English language very often, but there
are a bunch of newcomers on this fight guard.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
You've spoken to some of them this week.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Tell me maybe a fighter you've spoken to this week
that is basically on what they said to you, maybe
gives you a little bit of either paws or green
light go on their fight this week.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
I talked to host Johnson this week, and I can't
believe how much he boosted my feelings about him fighting
Chad and Helliger.
Speaker 6 (17:27):
And the reason was really simple.
Speaker 5 (17:28):
I talked to him about said, hey, you've had a
really long layoff and a couple of canceled fights. What's
going on? You know why you've been out for that long?
He said, I'll be.
Speaker 6 (17:35):
Honest with you.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
I had a surgery that I've been waiting for for
a really long time, and it cleared some things up.
And I said, oh, you know, knee shoulder, He said, eyeballs.
He has basically been legally blind since he was born,
and he has been fighting what he said was blurry figures,
and he's been knocking dudes out on the regional scene,
basically boxing without being able to see his opponent. Now
(17:56):
he's got twenty twenty vision and he's sniping people at
the You know, just going from being damn near legally
blind to having twenty twenty vision is enough of a
huge uptick for him and for me. I already liked
his wrestling improvements that we saw in Contender series now
grant at the short notice fight against Demon Black Chear
didn't show that, but you know, a guy who canting
(18:17):
out box and see, which he hasn't been able to
do before back to me, gives me a lot more
credibilit or a lot more of a pop on that number.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
He's minus one eighty five right now.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
A guy who can box and now see is quite
the line Dan, and look, you know he brings back
blood sport of everybody at MMA probably has watched that
movie at some point.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
But blinded fighter me, it's tough to fight these these
high level guys when you don't have your eyesight. That
is fascinating to me.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
And it's the one thing you can glean from actually
talking to fighters as you have this week, to know
that he's gotten that corrective surgery. So seems very playable
at a small price tag year under two dollars.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Any other fighter this week that you spoke to that
really maybe one way or another gave you something to
think about.
Speaker 5 (18:58):
Nobody else I spoke to, but I will say I
went back and did some research on Raphaelis Stithium, who
a lot of people might now remember, because you know,
we get these Contender Series guys who've been on the
Contender Series and we get all jacked up about and
then you know they have a fighter too, or have
a long layoff, and we kind of forget about him.
You know, everybody's excited about Peyton Talbot this weekend because
he's recent, he's fresh on our mind. Resseale's Stiffium won
(19:20):
his contract in twenty twenty two on Contender Series and
since then has been out for various different reasons. And
he's going to get a debut fight against Charles Johnson.
And I think a lot of people will see that
Charles Johnson, a widely veteran. Would you want to bet
a guy coming off of a year long layoff, you know,
at favorite money against Charles Johnson. But if you go
back and you watch that fight that he had on
(19:41):
Contender Series, the guy is so crafty on the ground,
and he's so smart on the ground. He's got good
double leg takedowns. And really, when you think about the
biggest weakness of Charles Johnson, that's it. It's his wrestling,
right We saw it in that Cody Dirton fight. Cody
Durton just ragged olled him to the map over and
over and over and over again, and with us to VM.
You know, having that long leg I think is making
the price a little bit shorter, and I think for
(20:03):
that reason alone, I think you got to get in
on him at this light price.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Yeah, it's amazing because Charles Johnson right now plus a
dollar fourteen. I'm sure it's going to be a popular
dog side here, but I'm picking up what you're putting
down very small.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
That you're getting a small price tag here in.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
The favorite just because he's been out of action and
maybe out of out of people's minds, if you will.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
In the fight game here you mentioned Peyton Talbot.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
He's the biggest favorite of the card at minus a
fifty against Nick Aguire. I can't play eight nine dollars
favorites anymore. After getting burned by Valentine chev Chenko against
Alexa Grosso the first time.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
Out, what do we make here of Talbot? Young fighter here?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Now down to six dollars, so maybe a little bit
better value here, but against another young fighter in Nick Aguire.
Speaker 5 (20:45):
You know, I actually think you might look for specific
round props to make this interesting, and I know you
usually don't see those until a little bit later in
the week, or they don't start to you know, pop
up all the places. But the reason I like later
round props for this one is that Peyton Talbot is
a guy who likes to be crafty in there, who
likes to show off a little bit. I think he
is going to go for the kill, and Nick Aguire
has shown that maybe he's not the most durable guy
(21:07):
on the whole planet. But I think as this fight
goes on, you're gonna start to see Peyton Talbot move
more and more towards that finish because he's gonna want
that finish.
Speaker 6 (21:15):
He's gonna want that stamp on his UFD debut.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
So I think if you look for him in like
a third round KO prop, you're gonna find a much
more manageable number, a number that's a little bit more
interesting because you know, yeah, looking at it right now,
it's on your screen. Just looking at that KO prop
maybe not the most enticing thing in the whole world,
you know, to get just one one type of potential finish,
I think he is gonna win by TKO. But to
make it a little juicier, I like I like late
(21:40):
in the fight.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Wow, okay, so minus two ten if you just wanted overall,
but look for maybe a late round prop there, second
round or third round ko to get a better price
tag there.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I look at a man hebas.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
I've been on her side a couple of times, haven't
cashed all those tickets. She's backing now against Louisana Pinhero.
She is a about a two to fifty betting favorite.
Speaker 3 (21:57):
Here.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Is there any concern now for a man of kind
of dropping I don't want to say dropping down a competition,
but when you kind of get to that mountaintop, don't
get there and they gotta pick up the pieces again
and you're you're laying two fifty, does that give you
a little pause?
Speaker 6 (22:10):
She's given me a little pause.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
I didn't like what I saw in the Macy Barber fight.
It concerned me quite a bit, you know that she
just kind of got bodied up and put down really easily.
It seemed like so I am worried about those things
with EBAs. But I will say this, the thing that
gives me a little bit more faith in this fight
is Luana Pinero as somebody who has had trouble with
people with physicality. She had trouble with Michelle Watterson's takedowns
(22:32):
Eebas should have.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
No problem, Dann. We look forward to it each and
every week. My friend always great to catch up with you,
and we will catch up with you when the UFC
comes back after the Thanksgiving holiday. There is everybody.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Give them a follow at gumby Breeland. Come on back,
just get it started right here, first strike on VC.
(23:11):
With so many games of the board, there's no better
time to put the Vison experts to work for you.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Become a vcent Pro subscriber today. Get access to our
daily best bets with the leaderboard to see which.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
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Visit Visa dot com sash subscribe and sign up. Now
we are.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Heading to the Second City to catch up with our guy,
Jordan Surewood. You can follow him on X as I
do at Wood on ESPN one thousand.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
He is also the host of the.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
Unnamed MMA podcast and Jordan. Before we get into this
card this week, I do want to look back with
you at last week's chaos of UFC two ninety five.
What's your biggest takeaway now that we have a new
interim heavyweight champion and we have a new light heavyweight
champion of the World.
Speaker 7 (24:02):
Well, I think personally I should have been smarter in
my handicapping of Tom Aspinall. I'm just reflecting back of
this was a guy that was pegged to be a
future heavyweight champion, and despite you know, the injury, and
despite the circumstances of a short notice fight, I should
have noticed at the end of the day, you got
serving a Paddlevich that that has leaky defense from a
striking standpoint. Curtis Blades was was tagging him in their
(24:25):
previous in the previous fight, and Aspinall was gonna find
the opening.
Speaker 4 (24:29):
So I missed that.
Speaker 7 (24:31):
But now I look forward, like what's next for Tom Aspinall, Like,
is he gonna just wait around for Steep b A
and John Jones to do their thing likely next summer,
or are we gonna you know, smart en up and
get Tom Aspinall a fight sooner rather than later, because look,
UFC three hundred is right around the corner, and although
we want Connor McGregor on the card, we don't want
(24:53):
Connor McGregor headlining the card. Do we want a title
fight headlining that card?
Speaker 6 (24:57):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (24:57):
What an interesting question you pose.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Should Connor McGregor still be a headliner at UFC three hundred.
That is a bizarre theory since we haven't seen him
fighting forever. I'm with you on the Aspiral thing. I
was on the wrong side too on Pavlovitch. I was
concerned about the no working.
Speaker 1 (25:14):
His back was out.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
We didn't even know that before the fight, but we
knew he didn't even have a camp and yet to
roll through Sergey Pavlovitch like that, It is different level stuff.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
I wonder if Jalton Almeida could be next.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
That would be interesting to me to see if you
put that kind of overblown white heavyweight against a real
heavyweight here in tom Aspiral. Fascinating potential matchmaking to come.
Let's get to this week's card in the main event
here and do you like this matchmaking?
Speaker 1 (25:40):
Paul Craig a guy.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Who he's becoming more well rounded, but we know he's
got big time deficiencies at the fight states standing against
a guy like Brendan Allen who feels like he can
do everything but sometimes maybe mentally makes mistakes inside the octagon.
Should Brendan Allen be over a four hour betting favorite.
Speaker 4 (26:02):
I don't.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
I don't think so. I mean, I yes, Brendan Allen
is extremely well rounded. He's obviously going to have a
decisive advantage on the feet. And look, he's only been
submitted one time in his mixed martial arts career, and
surprisingly it was against Travon Giles, like way back when
or early on in his career, and he's been in
(26:22):
there with some very good grapplers. I think the intriguing
thing is like how good is Paul Craig at won
eighty five? He looked good in his in his debut.
He shocked a lot of people with his ability to
submit Munez, a guy that Brendan Allen also you know
has a victory over. So are you are you trusting
Brendan Allen to do what he should do in this fight?
(26:43):
Push the pace, look to score on the stand up
and not make the mental mistake of going into Paul
Craig's guard. We've seen that happen before, and we know
what Paul Craig, the bear Jew can do, so I
think look the way to handicap This is certainly not
Brendan Allen at that four hour or favorite. I think
you've got to look at either guy, both fighters being finisher.
(27:05):
Paul Greg is lethal with his submissions and can find
opportunities there, and quite frankly Brendan Allen, I think it
could finish Paul Craig either via submission or all likelihood
which strikes either take k on the feed or ground
and pound. So my methodology, at least early on this
this fight week is look for the under, look for
the under the cash, knowing it's a five round fight,
(27:27):
that there's a plenty of time and opportunity to do so,
because I still think there's question marks about Paul Craig
and what he could do at one eighty five.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
There it is the under right now, not too much juice,
just a dollar twenty for under a round and a half,
so seven and a half minutes there in this potential
five round made event. You mentioned Craig with the finishing
potential k T k R DQS nine to one.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
The sub is five to one. You know, we didn't.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
We never thought al Mada and Derek Lewis would go
the distance the fight just to go to the distance
here is five to one plus five hundred. I mean,
we're not going to get another crazy night like we
had a couple weeks ago, are we No?
Speaker 4 (28:01):
I don't think so.
Speaker 7 (28:02):
I think that that had to do with the fact
that the two fighters matching up. I'll made it just
as we were just alluding to undersized heavyweight and not
able to get the submission that he did, and once
he had control firm grass of the fight, he was
just you know, happy enough to remain in the guard
of Derek Lewis and control him. That's not going to
be the case. Paul Craig too active of a guard
to fall into that trap. And Allen is an all
(28:24):
action type of fighter, So I suspect certainly the unders
to play.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
All right, So minus the dollar twenty there in the
co main event, you got Michael Morales, undefeated prospect, not
a prospect anymore when you're in the comin event of
a UFC card against Jake Matthews, a guy who can
be perplexing at time. But what we do know, obviously
he's got real ability to at twenty nine years young
against the twenty four year old and Morales, is this
too much too soon for Morales are the right next
(28:51):
opponent in his evolution?
Speaker 7 (28:53):
Now, look, I think Morales is victory over Griffin is
is you know in his previous fight is right there?
You know, Jake Matthews's guy been around the UFC for
quite some time, a stalwart of the welterweight division, wins
and losses.
Speaker 8 (29:05):
He's actually rotated wins and losses.
Speaker 7 (29:07):
So if pattern holds up, he's due for Ronel on Saturday.
And I think Morales is showcase. He's skilled everywhere, He's
good on his feed, very athletic, and obviously well versed
on the ground. I just think that that Jake Matthews,
you know, is that type of opponent similar to Griffin,
or he's going to challenge Morales and Morales is not
going to have the ability to go out and finish
(29:29):
to fight. I think Morales takes his foot off the
gas pedal the scores it controls with grappling and submission attempts.
But I think really Morales at a two dour plus
favorite I understand it, but I think I'm looking for
value there. So Morales via decision. I think this fight's
going to the judge of scorecards. I think Morale is
(29:49):
going to be content to continue to improve, evolve and
get probably the biggest name on his resume in the w.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Cowle love what you've done there, So you're going to
turn a relatively big favorite to Morale to getting nice
juicy plus number plus two fifty via decision for Morales.
So that's going to be the player from Jordan True
would have loved that when you can ever flip those
numbers around the.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Way you just did. I do you want to get
to the first.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Fight of the night, because this is interesting seeing Charles
Johnson on Twitter, he's excited to get back in there
first fight of the night. He is a small dog
here against Raphael Lestevi, a guy we haven't seen in.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
A while now, small favorite here for Raphael.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
Do you think he's playable? I'm seeing minus a dollar
thirty five right now.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
I think he is.
Speaker 7 (30:29):
But I think you've got a way to see what
he looks like Friday. This is the Gamblu special. You
gotta wait till way in to see what this guy
looks like because he struggled. He was supposed to make
his UFC debut in May, struggled away, didn't get to
the cage.
Speaker 6 (30:44):
So let's see what he looks like.
Speaker 7 (30:45):
But this is a guy with a lot of notoriety,
you know, a champion in SHOOTOU and LFA, respectable promotions
outside the UFC, and a guy that just grabs onto
you and holds you and gramples you to death. And
the one thing that we've seen Charles Johnson. Look, he's
got good cardio, he's got good take down the fence.
He'll probably have the stand up advantage, you know. Estvom
(31:08):
is more of a body, you know, utilizing his kicks
and stuff, not really going to the head. But Charles
Johnson struggles with guys that are like kind of like
wet blankets and just hold on to you, chain wrestle
you if you will. So that's why I like Estevon
because that's his skill set that I've seen that I
think is going to pay dividends at least early on
in his UFC career. So that's why I think as
(31:28):
a small favorite, I get it, I like it, I'm
going to play it. But I'm going to hold off
into just to be sure that Esteban gets through the scale,
the tough weight cut and is ready to fight on
Saturday afternoon, if you will.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
And I think Johnson's going to be a popular dog
pick there, so I'm picking up what you're putting down there.
You might get pretty good of value here with Rafael
as a small favorite. I want to get to the
wetsweight division here with Johnny Parsons against Euros medic in
medic right now nine to one, Parsons nine to three,
and Euros is a rather large favorite here at minus
two thirty.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Should he be that big a favor?
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Well, first off, Parsons obviously shocked some people with his
victory over Danny Roberts when he go overseas and gets
into a just a barn burner of a fight and wins.
But I think people knew about Parsons or always you
know people that are in the know. So I cashed
on him as a dog. I think you did as well.
But I think this is a fight again, firefight. Someone's
lights are going out. Either one guy likes to stand
(32:23):
there in trade, look for a variety of strikes. Medick
certainly He's got some power in both hands. We've seen
him finish people before. Parsons can do the same. That's
how he fights, fights like a dog. So I think,
you know, not necessarily going to go on either side.
I think it might be a little bit of a
risk for Parsons because he's got some leaky defense. But
I think someone is going to sleep, you know, in
this fight. So I actually like to finish in this fight.
(32:45):
The under is what I'm going to pay attention to
between these two wealth Away.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
And plus anwer fifteen right now for the under a
round and a half, got about a minute ago.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
I want to get to Jonathan Pierce. I guess jo Anderson.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
Brito here, this has got a potential sneaky fight of
the night written on.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
What do you make of this matchup?
Speaker 6 (33:02):
Oh? Look at I mean that Brito victory.
Speaker 7 (33:03):
Ever Diego Lopez holding up pretty well in the Contender series,
but Brito, you know, three finishes.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
I think the outlier is Bill l Jail.
Speaker 7 (33:10):
That's a concern because Jonathan Pierce kind of fights similarly
to Bill Lgo.
Speaker 6 (33:14):
But then you look at Jonathan Pierce.
Speaker 7 (33:16):
What happened in that Joe los On time man, the
UFC Jitters, I mean good for.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Joe los On. We love j Lo.
Speaker 7 (33:21):
That was great to see him perform like that. But
I just worry about again Parson's taken a big shot
from Joe Anderson Brito at some point, so I'm certainly
on the side right now with Britto.
Speaker 6 (33:32):
I think he could shot.
Speaker 7 (33:33):
Some people and get tears out of there in a
rather quick fashion. It won't be surprised if your strangles
him at some point towards the end of the fight.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Plus an hour ten right now and Britos, I like
you figured out some plus money on a lot of
these fights. Appreciate it as always. Jordan will catch up
again very soon. Come on back, First Strike rolls on
here on visa. We are back here on first right.
(34:16):
Dave Ross here at Circus Sports Book in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
What a pleasure to be joined by former three time
NFL All Pro linebacker Shaan Merriman, who now runs Lights
Out xf MMA. It's great to have the man nickname
Lights Out back in the program.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Sean, thanks for joining us today.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
You've got accept twelve coming up Saturday, November eighteenth, Thunder
Studio in Long Beach tell the people about their promotion
and how it's been coming along.
Speaker 9 (34:44):
Yeah, Lights Out Extreme Fighting twelve this Saturday in Long Beach, California.
If you're in Long Beach, you want to make sure
you get there. Get your tickets at LIGHTSOUTEXCEF dot com.
And if you can't make it there, we'll be live
on footbo TV Footbow Sports.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
If you don't have football, make sure you get it.
But Art is big man.
Speaker 9 (35:00):
We got something special coming up. Victor Rohads as you
see right now on the screen is fighting Boys Junior.
Victor's coming up from San Diego. You know, got Album
Morales on his card. Who fought in the USC for
a bid. He's fighting Ramos, who's out of Nick and
a DS camp. So I'm expecting one of those guys
to be there at some point. Tommy Aaron is fighting
(35:21):
on his card again. Who's Tony Ferguson's guys. We're locked
and loaded for this card, so make sure you guys
get there on Long Beat this Saturday, and again we'll
be live on Football TV for both sports.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
You know, Sean, it's amazing to see you make the transition,
obviously from your playing days in the NFL. Now to promoter, owner,
operator and running your own thing. Here, what's it been
like for you doing this?
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Because I can only think maybe a handful of former
athletes and then go on to do something else kind
of like this Oscar Dale Joya being a big, big
time promoter obviously in boxing. How has this been this
transition for you?
Speaker 4 (35:54):
Well, it's hectic, it's chaotic, hum.
Speaker 9 (35:56):
But you know again, I've been around this sport for
seventeen years and I wouldn't want to do anything else.
And more importantly, man, look, we want to get these
next up and cooming guys an opportunity, right, That's what.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
This thing is about.
Speaker 9 (36:08):
Obviously a lot of their aspirations is to go to
the UFC, have that opportunity to go there.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
We going to be a big platform to provide that form.
You know, we're jumping fifty to sixty.
Speaker 9 (36:18):
Percent sometimes even more than that on Fuboa to viewership,
and so people are finding out about us in the country.
So you know, we started out not a lot of
fire fighters, kind of trying to figure out who we were,
and now you know, we're getting calls from all over
the country for people coming to fight in lights out
extream fighting.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
Yeah, pretty cool man, And good on you for doing
it and giving these guys a platform, because that's exactly
what they need to show their skills.
Speaker 1 (36:40):
Tell the people what these fights have been like.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
The atmosphere for him you mentioned if you can't make
it down too long Beach, you can get on Fubo Sports.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
But for that crowd, for people that are.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
In attendance, what have they been seeing on a regular basis.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
It's crazy in there. It's intense. It's very intense.
Speaker 9 (36:57):
You know, we have rainbows Is coming down from Northern
California fighting somebody in southern California, Album Morales, and you
know that DS army man. They traveled, They traveled pretty tough.
And so you know last fight we sold out. We
had almost two hundred and fifty people outside, you know,
so I had to send someone out there to kind
of relay the update to the and the results of
(37:17):
the fight. So I felt bad for them, But that's
why I try to tell people. You know, you walk
ups are cool. If we have them, more than likely
we won't to get your tickets at lights out accept
dot com.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
There it is everybody, so check it out. Saturday, November eighteenth.
Pretty cool stuff what you're doing there. I do want
to get your thoughts because you mentioned you've been around
the sport now for almost two decades. Obviously goes back
into your playing days. When did you get involved with
MMA and was it helpful to you as a football
player learning another skill while still an active member and
a star in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
Yeah, yeah, no doubt about that.
Speaker 9 (37:48):
It actually happened between my two thousand and five and
two thousand and six off season. I was with a
good friend of mine, Jay Glaize, over there at Fox Sports.
You know, he saw me boxing, which I grew up
in cre Pc County, Washington. I grew up boxing uncles
and were professional boxes, and so I just got in
the MMA. I wanted to help my hand out coordination.
He sent me an address. I started training with Randy
(38:09):
Gator and all these guys, and I never left his
sports since. And look, I try to tell a lot
of active players, especially, but even former players to kind
of pick up some kind of combat sports discipline.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
Man, it can really really help you out a lot.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
Yeah, no question about it.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
And know that area of the Neck of the Woods
very well from my DC days. And remember you obviously
in your Maryland days. And I remember when you were
picking this stuff up, and it is Is it interesting
now to see more athletes gravitating towards MMA. Would you
give them a doing a dot like, hey, don't go
at it too hard? Maybe from the from the beginning
where you mentioned the discipline in that aspect that it
brings to their careers.
Speaker 9 (38:45):
Yeah, just don't go into the to the wrong gym,
talking too much. That's what you don't want to do,
because look, a lot of us got pride. Man, we
are big, strong and close of athletic. But these guys
have been doing it for a very long time. They're dangerous,
they're very skilled. H and so it's a humbling experience
when you have a big athlete that's explosive. They can
(39:06):
do all these things, learning something new and getting your
butt kicked once in a while.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Yeah, it is exactly right.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
You're gonna be humbled, certainly the first couple of times
you get in that gym.
Speaker 1 (39:14):
Are you still practicing? Are you still an MMA practitioner?
Speaker 4 (39:19):
I am? I am.
Speaker 9 (39:20):
I I feel some days now spar once a week
open Matt whether I'm in La uh Vegas, Texas, Arizona.
You know, most of the guys, you know, a lot
of USC fighters. They'll they'll see me hop on the
open matt Day and somethingy. They'll kind of they already
don't know me. They'll look at me like, what is
Sean Merriman doing down there, you know, kind of throwing
throwing hands. But I like to work, man and stay disciplined.
(39:41):
It keeps me in shape, gives me something to get
up for in the morning. And you know what, if
one of these guys don't like their contract, I got
to hold my own.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
So you know what, what are you walking around at
these days? What way class be putting you in?
Speaker 4 (39:55):
Way too damn heavy?
Speaker 9 (39:57):
We had a uh, look, we had we had a
charity event, a charity flag football event. I played against
last night, played last night for the charges for their
charges impact fun. And I wish they putting to Sean
Jackson that quarterback chase him around.
Speaker 4 (40:11):
I'm gonna be sore for the next three days. So
those days are done.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
Yeah, you can't be chasing around the Sean Jacksons of
the world. It's too fast these days.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
You mentioned, certainly, I got to ask you about UFC
two ninety five year takeaways from what you saw at
Madison Square Garden. We've got a new interim heavyweight champion
now and Tom Aspinall, and we got a two time
champion now in Alex Pahara.
Speaker 1 (40:31):
What was your biggest takeaway from either of those two
the co Maine and the main event?
Speaker 9 (40:36):
Perera Man, he's scary as hell, you know, just and
look the fights against Izy Man for him to kind
of bounce back, because when you get knocked out in
that caliber, you kind of you kind of lose a
lot of your confidence, you start doubting yourself a little bit.
And this guy is just a damn machine man. So
I'm happy for him. I think that every time in
the UFC. I've been to two of their fights, three
(40:59):
or three, two or three that fights in Madison Square
Garden and they just turned that place out.
Speaker 4 (41:03):
Man, it's a different atmosphere when you.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
Get that, it really is.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
And now we kind of play that waiting game now
with Tom Aspinall as the interim heavyweight champion.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
We don't know if it's going to be John Jones
next year in twenty twenty four. How do you for
a guy with.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
Your perspective, because you hear these debates and all kinds
of sports. Well, let me tell you about this guy
in my day was better than your guy this day.
John is kind of that guy that's gone to both
worlds because he's regarded as the greatest mixed martial arts practitioner.
And yet some are saying now that Aspinall is the
next and maybe that's a bad matchup for John.
Speaker 1 (41:35):
A fully healthy John Jones, you know north of forty. Now,
would you make him a betting underdog against Tom Aspinall?
Speaker 4 (41:43):
No?
Speaker 9 (41:44):
And it's like, you know when people bet against their chiefs, right,
how are you going to bet against his defending champ?
And they've already they're the ones with the title. How
do you bet against them?
Speaker 4 (41:52):
Now?
Speaker 9 (41:53):
You know, Dominic Rays was the closest guy that we've
seen ever probably give John Jones a problem, and we
have as anybody else.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
John Jones has walked for everyone else.
Speaker 9 (42:02):
So until you showed me someone else that's going to
do what John Jones have done, he is the greatest
HMMA fighter of all time. And I don't think that
should be any question to anybody.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
I'm with you on that.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
The other part that I absolutely loved that for UFC
two ninety five is when Pehara won, he called out
is He again even though Israel's out of signing, says,
I'm taking some time away from the sport. He's not
even the middleweight champion anymore, and yet Pehara still wants
one more shot at that. Do you want to see
that as a fight? Van Sean Merriman, see those two guys,
(42:34):
I don't care what the weight classes, go at it
one more time.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
I do. I do.
Speaker 9 (42:38):
And you know what, I couldn't understand that anything but
come to daddy when he said come to daddy, I
got that part of it. So look, it'll be a
great fight, great matchup that I think that that trilogial,
how do you want to call it? After that will
be around for a long time.
Speaker 2 (42:52):
Yeah, I'm right there with you. I don't care what
weight they happen to fight at. If that's what he
wants and is he's been back on him in social
media and the like. We'll see if that fight happens
very quickly. NFL, do you do you miss the playing days?
You're still watching either the Chargers of the Bills or
your former.
Speaker 9 (43:10):
Guys every Sunday, every Monday night, every Thursday night football
I'm locked in, and you know, for me, mats kind
of being away from the game, former former guys. You
started to become a fan of the past rushers. You know,
I love watching guys like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.
You know, Joey Bosa I watched, I would Michael Parsers.
You become a fan of further away you step away
(43:31):
from the game.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (43:34):
You still appreciate certainly good linebacker play that you're seeing
from some of those guys that you mentioned.
Speaker 1 (43:38):
Okay, we're gonna wrap it up. Got about forty five
seconds ago, but once again Lights out excep twelve, Saturday,
November eighteenth, Thunder Studio in Long Beach. Tell the people
again how they can access it if they can't get
there in person.
Speaker 9 (43:51):
Yeah, if you can get there, likesoutextpt dot com where
you get your tickets. If you can't whooping live on
football TV, Foo Mooth sports. Guys don't have footbo makes
you get it. This one is our biggest card. But
I'll tell you what, man, we got we got a
couple of guys. Well, I think what's gonna move on
to the USC after they're done with done with Lights Out?
Speaker 8 (44:07):
It's so it'll be.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
Nice and there it is again.
Speaker 2 (44:09):
It's the it's the proving ground, and all of a
sudden sometimes you can go from that level and keep
on ascending up. Lights Out Sean Merriman. It's great to
catch up with you man. Appreciate everything that you're doing
and continued success with Lights out XCEP.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
We appreciate it having me there.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
It is everybody, Sean Merriman, three time NFL All Pro linebacker.
Speaker 10 (44:30):
All right, much more to get you don't go anywhere.
It is first strike right here on VS in the
Sports Betting Network. We continue first strike by going to
(45:01):
our nation's capital right now.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
To catch up with Reidkoon. You can follow him on
X as I do at Fight Nomics. He's the author
of a book of the same name. Reid, it's been
wild weekend since UFC two ninety five. Two new champions now,
an interim heavyweight champion and a light heavyweight champion.
Speaker 1 (45:17):
But for those who missed it, like yours truly.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
What was the menu that you had for fight night
at UFC two ninety five, because in the break it
sounded decadent.
Speaker 8 (45:28):
I am returning to my roots full steakhouse mode for
a big pay per view card at MSG, you gotta
go big New York style steak filet mignon. All the
trimming is very good wine pairing, So yeah, I went
all out. It was a small audience, so I was
able to put a lot into the menu. Next time,
when I'm cooking for a lot of people, I can't
quite go that well on the plating.
Speaker 2 (45:49):
Mom is gonna just love this when she hears this,
because she always looks forward to that and her son
cannot cook like you can cook.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
I'll just leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Also, we always talk about, obviously how you got to
fight nomics in becoming the author of the book and
kind of inventing, if you will, the tail of the
tape that we use a.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
Lot in MMA.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
And I want to talk about something that you've kind
of greenlighted recently, and this is with MMA Odds Breakers
as well, where people can actually practice kind of what
you do and kind of create some of their own models.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
Can you tell the people how to do that?
Speaker 8 (46:23):
Yeah, you're probably familiar with Nick Kolikas who founded Breaker.
He's an old school MMA Odds guy betting expert and
is still in the game. So my uber tapes have
been showing up on his website for years now for
paying customers to go behind pine a paywall to get those,
but we decided to automate that and working with Nate Latshaw,
(46:43):
who is also on Twitter. In Nate Latshaw, he's been
tweeting a lot of statistics that he built after reading
the book Fight Nomics to sort of automate this, you know,
so he gets the latest stats after every card, he
updates fighter Metrics, and now you can go to that
website and basically pick any two fighters and your own
ubertail of the tape, or you see a preview for
(47:03):
each of the next two weeks of matchups. So as
of right now you can go in and see who
are the matchups this weekend, see how they stack up.
You've got comparison to an average for that division, which
helps you put some of these numbers into context, some
of the more nuanced numbers. So hopefully it's a nice
tool that people can bookmark and come back to and
use that as a research tool.
Speaker 1 (47:23):
Absolutely fascinating. Again. Nick Klik is one of the ogs
here of First Trike.
Speaker 2 (47:27):
You can follow him at fight Odds whenever you and
Nick are doing something together.
Speaker 1 (47:31):
I know it's going to be very successful.
Speaker 2 (47:32):
So looking forward to that, and again, everybody, that's a
tool that you can use as reads given it there
to use to try to increase your knowledge in the
fight game, certainly from a gambling perspective. So let's get
right to that and let's get to the main event
this week with Brendan Allen against Paul Craig. Craig's one
of those guys it's kind of fluctuated in waight back
down to one eighty five.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
He's fought it up at two oh five.
Speaker 2 (47:51):
Where he was kind of thought to be a little
bit too small for that division. Brendan Allen feels like
he's coming into his own right now.
Speaker 1 (47:57):
Twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
I know the number is normally going to favor the
young guy eight years the junior of Paul Craig, But
did the number support that Allen should be over a
four dollar betting favorite?
Speaker 8 (48:07):
Yeah, price here is going to matter. Yes, the numbers
do favor the younger guy in this matchup Paul Craig.
He is thirty six, but I think it feels like
he's been around longer. He's been in some crazy wars.
I mean, if you go back to Showgun Hua, he
had a crazy fight with that guy, and so it's
a weathered thirty six. He's been around for a while
and taking some damage and Brendan Allen is the new blood.
(48:29):
But Brendan Allen succeeded primarily through his grappling. You know,
he'll point strike for a while, but it's really his
submission game that's been finishing fights. And when you think
about what is the number one thing that you don't
want to do with Paul Craig, it's go on the
ground with him. And so that's why I feel like
things are stacked up for Brendan Allen to get another
marquee victory in a main event, But there is that
(48:51):
wild card. So what price do you back off and
maybe take a flyer on Paul Craig to spoil the
show with a finish. Now that's the key I think,
bets or the way to go on this one, because
straight up, I'm not seeing much value in four to
one for Brendan Allen, and.
Speaker 1 (49:05):
There it is.
Speaker 2 (49:06):
Five to one is the prop number for sub for
Paul Craig. Now, again, if this fight does go down
to the ground, as you allude to with Brendan Allen
because that isn't normally what he likes to do.
Speaker 1 (49:17):
Maybe a club and sub happens. Paul Craig has done
that before as well. Nine to one.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
There is that because you see the prop price at
five to one. Obviously he increase from the plus three
thirty of just picking the Craig side. Would it only
be sub or pass for you if you like the
dog here.
Speaker 8 (49:32):
With Craig he does have striking finishes also on the ground.
It's one of those scenarios you might want to go
itd or just put a limit on it, you know,
under two point five. If Craig is going to pull
off the upset, it's probably going to be sooner rather
than later. With Brandon Allen, if he chooses not to
take this to the ground, and he chooses to point strike,
he is favorably positioned here. He does have much better accuracy,
(49:54):
he does have some power, and Craig probably doesn't want
to stand and take punches for a while. The problem
with Allen is he also has very bad defense, so
he gets hit and all of a sudden, Paul Craig,
with all the intensity that he brings into the cage.
He likes to swing for the fences. When he does swing,
he may not be very accurate. But you also don't
want to get hit by a former light heavyweight that way.
(50:14):
So there's a lot of wild cards here. I think
if I am going the Paul Craig route, especially if
there's more price inflation as the week goes on, I
think it would be a Craig inside the distance play
just for a small bit, because you're going to get
a very good return on that. Otherwise, you know, if
you're one of those parlay hunters, you want to play
it safe. Brendon Allen is still the safe pick. I
just don't know if I want to pay.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
Four to one for him plus three seventy right now.
Speaker 2 (50:36):
If you like Paul Craig inside the distance, by the way,
it's reverse for Brennan Allen. You're not getting that much
better value win by finishes, yet still lay three dollars
for Brendan Allen to finish via decision. You know you
want to get this sneaky prop way there, kotkr dq.
You can get plus money on Brendan Allen a plus
an hour twenty five subs plus two twenty five, but
you're playing that guessing game there if that fight does
(50:57):
hit the ground.
Speaker 1 (50:58):
I'm interested with the model show.
Speaker 2 (50:59):
And you have a young fighter like Michael Morales who's
been nothing but impressive every time we've seen him in
the octagon here still undefeated against the guy like Jack Matthews,
who I think we've expected maybe a little bit more
so far in his career. It's been flashy at times,
been disappointing at others. Morales now lane two eighty five here,
come back on Jake is plus two thirty? Any value
(51:22):
in the dog according to the numbers, I'm.
Speaker 8 (51:25):
Not seeing it currently, But you called that the important thing,
which is we don't know a whole lot about Michael Morales,
and the fights he's had so far were so impressive
that it's almost like looking back at last week when
we had Tom aspinall in there and you just don't
have a big sample size. But the numbers are amazing,
and so it's a question of do you believe it?
And right now, like, yeah, I would go with Michael Morales.
(51:48):
I do see him as having the more impressive numbers.
He's also bigger and rangier, And you're right about Jake
Matthews I mean, I was a big supporter of him
early on, but he's been pretty hit or miss lately,
kind of a five hundred fighter the last couple of years,
and so I think this is a favorable matchup for Morales,
whose striking metrics are kind of insane at the moment.
(52:09):
That's probably going to even out after he spends a
round or two with Jake Matthews. I don't think Jake
Matthews goes down quickly, but even for a young guy
at twenty nine, Jake Matthews has been dropped four times
and in a shootout he might be at risk here,
And so yeah, the price, the price isn't so crazy
that I can't believe the numbers. If we were getting
into the steam category four to one with Morales, I
(52:31):
would probably back off and say I just don't see
enough that I can believe yet. But right now he
is looking pretty amazing, and at minus two fifty, I'll
go with the favorite here.
Speaker 2 (52:40):
You know, I look at Chase Hooper and he's a
fascinating fighter to watch kind of grow up before our
mmais right. We've seen this before with other fighters, and
Hooper's now falling in that category here and It's odd
because sometimes he's a big fave, sometimes he feels like
a big dog. Now he's back to being over a
two dollars favorite against the Monkey King and Jordan Levitt,
who is as unorthodox as they come, but yet he
(53:03):
can surprise sometimes. I think when people start to count
him out. Is this a live dog scenario? Or should
the youngster now twenty four be over a two dollars
betting favorite this one.
Speaker 8 (53:15):
It's currently a pass, I think, and that's only because
the price came down quite a bit from where it opened.
I was seeing some early value on Levitt, and I'm
gonna I'm gonna have to wait, I think later in
the week and see where things land. But you're right,
Hooper looks good on paper, terrible defense, a pretty good offense.
He's gotten by with his ground game, so as Jordan Levit.
(53:36):
Jordan Levitt is actually the more eager wrestler of the
two and arguably has some better control metrics, maybe not
in the submissions, but in terms of pure wrestling, And
so that's why I'm leaning towards Levitt here for the upset,
but just barely. I do want to see where the
price lands, but that's because I think he's flying under
the radar a little bit. It seems like maybe the
(53:56):
market picked up on some of that earlier this week
and started throwing down on the under That's the one
I'm going to keep close tabs on, you know.
Speaker 2 (54:03):
With so many fighters making their debut. Just to kind
of a rule of thumb, you guys are not going
to when you run in the numbers for Yeah, you
might have other you know, other establishments that they've been
fighting in and other programs, but once I get to
the UFC, you're going to discount the old numbers until
you see it in the UFC.
Speaker 1 (54:19):
Correct, That's right.
Speaker 8 (54:21):
We need at least three appearances in the UFC. I
am not even including data White Contender Series. Depending on
the website, if you're on UFC Stats, you might see
those stats in there included. So I think other analysts
that are out there scraping the internet they might be
bucketing that in I personally exclude that. I just see
it as fundamentally a different platform, and that's just how
(54:43):
we've done it in the past. You know, when we
had Strikeforce in WEC coming over, we had to use
some of that data for a brief period of time
just to get enough critical mass. Now it's purely UFC
fights only, and.
Speaker 2 (54:53):
Really that shows discipline too, right that Look, you've got
a system that's been very profitable.
Speaker 1 (54:58):
It works that way.
Speaker 2 (55:00):
We're not gonna just because you Seemon Contender series now
they get to this stage. We're not gonna upset the model. Correct,
We're gonna stay with what what the model is.
Speaker 6 (55:08):
That's right.
Speaker 8 (55:08):
You want confidence more than anything else. It's okay to
be wrong as long as in the long run you're
being right more often than not in finding price value.
But yeah, you got to have a clean system, a
nice algorithm, and stick with what works.
Speaker 2 (55:21):
And Reid koons system is right much more than it
is wrong. Reid, appreciate you as always, my friend. Enjoy
the fights this week. That's going to do it for
this edition of First Strike. We'll see you after the holiday,
right back here on Vson
Welcome to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host
Dave Ross.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
For the next how we're gonna break down UFC Fight
Night coming up this Saturday night, a middleweight clash between
Brendan Allen and Paul Craig, big favorite here in Brendan Awen.
We'll get to that and maybe some pathways to victory
for both. But before we look ahead, let's look back
at what we saw at UFC two to ninety five
Exhale two title belts on the line at Madison Square Garden.
(00:39):
There he is Alex Pahara, now a two division champ
after knocking out ur A pro Hashka via TKO in
round number two. Maybe a fight he was losing up
until that point, but that power that Poeton has is
devastating and he knocks out ur A pro Hashka to
claim that strap and the comin event, we have a
(01:00):
new interim heavyweight.
Speaker 1 (01:01):
Champion of the world. His name is Tom Aspinall from
England as he.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
Walks through Sergey Pavlovitch in around number one with the KO.
There so two new title contenders and champions now on
the scene at both white heavyweight and heavyweight. Without further ado,
let's bring the man. You can file on X as
I do at Gamblu. He is the one and only
Loof and Kara, the host of About Business podcast Lou.
I was admittedly on the wrong side, but I was
(01:28):
thrilled nonetheless to see what we saw in the Komaine
In the main event, What is your takeaway from an
absolutely wild night at Madison Square Garden.
Speaker 3 (01:39):
First day? Thanks for having me on eye side stepped
both of those fights. I did get Peira Perchowska to
start too. I had asked Spinal Pavlovitch to start round two.
I thought Pavlovitch could make it at least that far.
For him to be done that way, like overar Eim
(01:59):
did the him and his debut against a guy in
Aspinall with a strained back. We've come to learn it
really drops Pavlovich a few notch in my notches in
my book. It takes nothing away from Aspinall, who unfortunately
has no shot at getting steep A or John Jones.
And we're just going to have to see how they
(02:21):
dole the whole thing out. But overall, New York City,
what a great card top to bottom. And now we
go from having some shine on a big card to
going to a card with less name recognition, five debuting fighters.
But this card is deep and rife and betting opportunity,
and Lou.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
That's exactly the point here, because you have a star
started event like UFC two ninety five, and then you
kind of ex sale and then you have this card
you go, oh, well, this isn't going to draw the attention.
This is a draws people like you and gets your
attention because as you mentioned, you sidestepped the comaine and
the main last week because you have better betting opportunities
this week's get to that main event here in this one.
(03:01):
Because you do look at Brendan Allen, you can understand
why he's such a big favorite here over Paul Craig.
But what's interesting is if the fight gets to the ground,
is where Paul Craig, obviously we know, can be dangerous here.
Is it as simple as that in your estimation that
if Brennan Allen keeps his fight standing, he should be
(03:22):
almost what a over four dollars betting favorite as we
have here on a Tuesday.
Speaker 3 (03:28):
Dave, I don't think Brendan Allen should be over a
four dollars favorite in this fight in any way, shape
or form. I don't believe his striking is enough to
expose Craig. Let's not forget Craig thought at two to
oh five, he's two inches taller. He's going to have
a reach advantage when the night of the fight occurs.
Craig's going to be much the larger, heavier man in
(03:51):
this fight. And we've seen as lacking as Craig is
in stand up, it's evolving and is lacking as Allen
is in IQ, he's been able to masquerrate it over
the last few fights. Allen is not going to be
able to hold himself back from trying to beat Craig
(04:13):
at his own game if he follows the plan, and
that said plan will be tire Craig out a little bit,
get him desperate on the feet, then take him down
to do it. I believe that's Allan's plan. I believe
he has the ability to execute that plan. But you're
dealing with a guy with some shaky IQ and a
(04:34):
guy in Craig that is massive next to Alan, and
you got to give him his respect. I think, even
though he's so singularly dimensioned.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
And that is fascinating, that really for Paul Craig, and
I love the way you phrased it.
Speaker 1 (04:48):
It's not a strength by any stretch of the imagination.
Speaker 2 (04:51):
The hands game, right, and we've seen this before like
Damian Maya comes to mind, where you have a specialist, right,
like Kron Gracie still has not learned how to use
his hands at all.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
Craig has. So I look at the total.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
Here and it's set right now at a round and
a half, remember five round here, main event and basically
minus star ten for a round and a half. Can
Paul Craig survive enough to make this over playable in
your mind?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
That one and a half with a pick to the
you know to the under over indicates a submission by
Craig to me, That's how I read this.
Speaker 4 (05:33):
Again.
Speaker 3 (05:34):
I may be flawed and how I'm approaching Alan's approach
to this fight, but Alan has to take this. If
Alan goes.
Speaker 4 (05:44):
You know.
Speaker 3 (05:46):
All to the wall for lack of a better term,
then I don't think this is the way he wins.
I think he runs right into a submission for when
he's dry and given Craig every chance he has to
win the fight. No, I think the al inside has
taking this fight into a couple rounds on their side.
(06:07):
I've been wrong before, plenty wrong. I could be wrong here,
but I think that I really like the over looking
at that total, as do I.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
I got to a first glance here, and these lines
get populated, which is why I love when we do
the shows. We try to get those two You kind
of hot off the press, if you will. And what's
fascinating to me too, lou Is you look at just
if you want to just take Paul Craig as a
dog at plus three thirty, you can do that. The
submission price is not that much higher five to one.
Speaker 1 (06:35):
Is that the only pathway that we possibly see?
Speaker 2 (06:38):
I mean, you could get a bizarre club and sub
if somehow he hurts Brendan out on the ground or
he gets him in the comprising position, that's nine to one.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
But if you're on the Craig side, do you take
the added value of the five to one sub price?
Speaker 3 (06:51):
Yeah, I think there's enough price difference to make it worthwhile.
I also believe it's the most and singular logical app
for Craig to earn victory is to jeopardize Allen on
a mistake. Yeah, and it'll be an IQ mistake for
Allen if he makes one.
Speaker 1 (07:09):
That's a great way to phrase it right there.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
If he makes a mistake, it'll be one that Craig's
going to look to take advantage of, certainly in a
submission type scenario. There so probably playable in LU and
I's both of our eyes here at five to one.
I want to get to a couple of fights that
are intriguing to me for a couple of different reasons. One,
you've got the Youngster and Chase Hooper back in there
against the Monkey King and Jordan Levitt, And right now
(07:31):
you're seeing Chase as a solid two twenty five betting
favorite against Levitt, and you know Levitt is They're both
got a comical in their own way. I've seen them
on social media this week. And you got a young
kid in here at twenty four, but it's not like
Jordan's that much older at twenty eight. He can be
one of those unorthodox type fighters against a guy in
Chase who's starting to round out his MMA game.
Speaker 1 (07:54):
What do you make of this match up here on
the main on the main card.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
I'm glad you picked this one, Dave, and I'm going
to try and remain monotone here because I believe this
Vice fight is mispriced. I look at Levitt as a man,
he doesn't act that way. He's goofy and geeky, but
he's married, he has a family, and he has goals,
and his goals include staying in the UFC. If he
(08:21):
loses this fight, he's out. Chase has done very well,
but he's a gangly young kid, and he's actually showed
even better since he went to fifty five from one
forty five. But he's not ready yet for a twenty
eight year old man in Levitt that's desperate that needs
(08:42):
to stay. This fight's miss priced. I like Levitt as
an underdog.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, I think you get some live dogs at are
barking here the co main event. You got Jake Matthews
from Australia and there solid underdog right here. We're seeing
at plus two thirty against Michael Morales. Is this a
potential spot where another dog could be barking.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
No question about it.
Speaker 4 (09:02):
This one.
Speaker 3 (09:03):
The story is the experience and inconsistency on the Matthews
side against the guy in Morales. It's looked great, but
he hasn't been in with near the ilk that has
competed against Matthews. Albeit Matthews has had uneven results, but
he comes in ready to bounce again off a loss,
and I think Matthews is dangerous. Do I look at
(09:27):
Matthews as a potential bet on I'm not sure if
I'm that far this at this point in the week.
But what you're showing now total rounds over one and
a half, over one and a half minus one eighty five,
I'll be looking at that over starts round three even
(09:47):
that kind of a prop here, because I don't believe
the young kid's gonna get Matthews out of there.
Speaker 2 (09:52):
And you see there, Lou, without picking a winner, that
this fight just hits the cards plus a dour sixteen.
I know you're looking at to begin round three? Is
that something kind of in an elevator, if you will,
we call it these days, If you have the fight
to go over one and a half, then maybe to
start around two or start round three rather? Would you
look at that as another playable piece here plus a
dollar sixty that the fight hits the cards.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
Abe, I'm starting to get nervous that you're anticipating how
I look at these fights correctly. But that's exactly right.
If I like that over one and a half, my
next challenge is how do I get rid of minus
one eighty five, and so I have to take it up.
That's exactly how I would approach it.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
I always say that I feel better when what I'm
thinking matches what our experts think on the show.
Speaker 1 (10:36):
So you're already making me feel better about this fight card, Lough.
I want to get into a couple things here.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
Got about a minute ago, tell the people about the
sneak teep this week that you've already given out and
what they get on the Bout Business podcast.
Speaker 3 (10:47):
The sneak Teep is simply a Monday look at the
opening lines, and really it's a great practice for me
to sharpen my steel, and it's a great way to
really I'm reading lines that early in the week. And
on some of those debuting fighters, one of the debuters
has gone from dog to favorite. Three of them have
gotten bet out of their minds. And then in one
(11:10):
of the debuting fights, the debuter is a five or
six hundred favorite, the young man tellot. So I'll be
watching those. I think in those three fights with the debuters,
you might find some information on the sneak peep regarding
those fights, and.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
That is why you get to check out the bout
Business podcast Loop Nikara. Always appreciate you, my friend, and
enjoy the fights. We'll catch up again when do you
take a break for the UFC next week, So it'll
be the week after that when we see Lou back
here on the program.
Speaker 1 (11:39):
Don't go in here much more to get to just
getting it.
Speaker 2 (11:41):
Started alright here at his first strike on VS. Before
(12:07):
you make your next wager, be sure to visit vison
dot com check the current betting splits data. I want
to know where the money and bets are moving for
every single game. With the betting splits pages updated with
drafting zods every five minutes.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
You can see the changes in all.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
The action, find out where the public is betting based
in the number of tickets, and where the money doesn't
match the public opinion. You can check out not just
today's action, but future events as well. Betting splits another way.
Vson is here to make you a smarter, better year round.
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vson
dot com. It's time to ship up to Boston to
catch up with our guy Dan Reeland. You can follow
him on X as I do at Gumbyreland, and he's
(12:40):
all over the MMA space. Dan, tell the peeps where
they can find you on so many different outlets.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
You can find me writing at both the Sportscambling podcast
dot com and cage Side Press, which is where I
do most of my MMA writing. And then you can
also hear me on podcasts in book those places, the
SGPN MMA podcast and the Top Turtle MMA podcast on
Cagey Press where I interview a few of these fighters
on this card this week.
Speaker 1 (13:05):
Oh I love that.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Before I get to that and pick up what you've
been able to glean from the fighters in action this week,
we always love to ask you the fight you can't
wait to wager on, and the fight you can't wait
to watch?
Speaker 6 (13:17):
The fight I can't wait to watch.
Speaker 7 (13:18):
It's easy.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
It's Jonathan Piers versus Joe Anderson bree Too. I've always
been a big fan of Jonathan Pierce. I think his
size is really intriguing in this weight class. I think
the speed of jo Anderson bree Too is like an
interesting challenge that he's never dealt with, so I'm seeing
a close line. I think it makes a lot of sense.
These two are both dangerous in very different ways. So
I'm just looking forward to seeing how how that one
(13:39):
plays out. The one I'm hoping to wager on in
the one of the most excited to wager on is
one that's probably not even on your board yet.
Speaker 6 (13:47):
Christian Leroy Duncan.
Speaker 5 (13:48):
Was supposed to fight Caesar Almeida, and I've got a
little bit of insider information. Almeida out of that fight
with an infection. Insert welter weight from the regional scene.
What the bec oral buy? Who is a little known
guy out of LFA who is an absolute beast of
a wrestler. I'm guessing because he's coming in here on
short notice and at.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
Least I'm big told he is.
Speaker 5 (14:08):
He's gonna come in here as a very steep price,
and I think he's gonna wrestle Leroy Duncan two deaths.
So look for that guy as soon as he comes
on the board.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
That is not on the board, but that is breaking
news here from Dan Freeland. Wow to be watching that
for maybe fading Christian Leroy Duncan here with that news
of Gummy Vreeland. So we'll wait until see what those
numbers get populated as the week goes on, but that
is not on the.
Speaker 1 (14:32):
Board just yet. So literally, fresh off the presses from Boston. Okay,
let's get to this.
Speaker 2 (14:36):
Main event here, because again, you know after UFC two
ninety five sometimes.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
You go, ah, this card.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I am intrigued by the main event, right because you
look at Brendan Allen. This is guy in the middleweight division.
And we talked to Lufinicar in the last segment. You know,
maybe if he can stay on schedule and stay disciplined,
you can understand why he's over a four dollar betting favorite.
But Paul Craig is a guy you don't want to
mess with. If the fight hits the ground, he's gonna
look for unorthodox submissions.
Speaker 1 (15:04):
Should Allen be this big a favorite to you, Dan,
what do you think?
Speaker 5 (15:08):
No, not at all, and both because of the thing
you just pointed out with him sometimes making a bad
decision and going somewhere he shouldn't in two We've only
really seen Paul Craig at this weight class one time, right,
and in that one time, his wrestling seems to be
playing up quite a bit, right, because that was the
knock on him at L like heavyweight. He's not a
(15:28):
big enough guy, not with good enough wrestling to be
taken down these bigger light heavyweight dudes drop him down
a weight class and suddenly his size plays up, his
wrestling plays up. Will it play up against Brendan Allen
that much? I'm not sure Brendan Allen's a good grappler,
but that much to be you know, over a three
to one underdog here, that price is wacky as all
(15:50):
can be. I think Paul Craig is the only possible
bet you can have here with value, and that includes
all the props on Brendan Allen.
Speaker 6 (15:57):
This is a dogg or a pass spot for me.
Speaker 2 (15:59):
And again, if you're looking at Craig's pathways to victory,
is it sub and sub only because that's five to
one instead of the plus three thirty or do you think?
Speaker 1 (16:07):
I mean?
Speaker 2 (16:08):
Dare I say, could he get a ground and pounded
that fight hits the ground and gets him in a
unorthodox position nine to one? If you think he could
do that. But it's got to be on the ground
in some capacity, right.
Speaker 6 (16:18):
I would think it's got to be on the ground.
Speaker 5 (16:19):
I would say you're not getting enough extra value on
the submission prop to play here with Paul Craig, and
I'll just be honest. I remember being burned by Paul
Craig versus Showgun Huah, he grounded, pounded out showgun hua,
and I was like, there was no way ko showgun
who from Paul Craig was going to happen, and then
it did.
Speaker 6 (16:37):
So unless I'm getting a big enough bump in the.
Speaker 5 (16:40):
Odds there, I don't like Paul Craig in any particular
method because he's already such a value here on the
money line.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Yeah, I'm with you.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
We see some weird things in main events recently, and
certainly one comes to mind Jelton. I'll not being able
to finish terrec Lewis, but I'm gonna try to.
Speaker 1 (16:51):
Let that go. Okay.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
You mentioned and Britten has who does a great job
putting together these shows. He wrote on the rundown with
a fight card feature so many debutants, Like we don't
use debutants in the English language very often, but there
are a bunch of newcomers on this fight guard.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
You've spoken to some of them this week.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
Tell me maybe a fighter you've spoken to this week
that is basically on what they said to you, maybe
gives you a little bit of either paws or green
light go on their fight this week.
Speaker 5 (17:21):
I talked to host Johnson this week, and I can't
believe how much he boosted my feelings about him fighting
Chad and Helliger.
Speaker 6 (17:27):
And the reason was really simple.
Speaker 5 (17:28):
I talked to him about said, hey, you've had a
really long layoff and a couple of canceled fights. What's
going on? You know why you've been out for that long?
He said, I'll be.
Speaker 6 (17:35):
Honest with you.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
I had a surgery that I've been waiting for for
a really long time, and it cleared some things up.
And I said, oh, you know, knee shoulder, He said, eyeballs.
He has basically been legally blind since he was born,
and he has been fighting what he said was blurry figures,
and he's been knocking dudes out on the regional scene,
basically boxing without being able to see his opponent. Now
(17:56):
he's got twenty twenty vision and he's sniping people at
the You know, just going from being damn near legally
blind to having twenty twenty vision is enough of a
huge uptick for him and for me. I already liked
his wrestling improvements that we saw in Contender series now
grant at the short notice fight against Demon Black Chear
didn't show that, but you know, a guy who canting
(18:17):
out box and see, which he hasn't been able to
do before back to me, gives me a lot more
credibilit or a lot more of a pop on that number.
Speaker 1 (18:24):
He's minus one eighty five right now.
Speaker 2 (18:27):
A guy who can box and now see is quite
the line Dan, and look, you know he brings back
blood sport of everybody at MMA probably has watched that
movie at some point.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
But blinded fighter me, it's tough to fight these these
high level guys when you don't have your eyesight. That
is fascinating to me.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
And it's the one thing you can glean from actually
talking to fighters as you have this week, to know
that he's gotten that corrective surgery. So seems very playable
at a small price tag year under two dollars.
Speaker 1 (18:52):
Any other fighter this week that you spoke to that
really maybe one way or another gave you something to
think about.
Speaker 5 (18:58):
Nobody else I spoke to, but I will say I
went back and did some research on Raphaelis Stithium, who
a lot of people might now remember, because you know,
we get these Contender Series guys who've been on the
Contender Series and we get all jacked up about and
then you know they have a fighter too, or have
a long layoff, and we kind of forget about him.
You know, everybody's excited about Peyton Talbot this weekend because
he's recent, he's fresh on our mind. Resseale's Stiffium won
(19:20):
his contract in twenty twenty two on Contender Series and
since then has been out for various different reasons. And
he's going to get a debut fight against Charles Johnson.
And I think a lot of people will see that
Charles Johnson, a widely veteran. Would you want to bet
a guy coming off of a year long layoff, you know,
at favorite money against Charles Johnson. But if you go
back and you watch that fight that he had on
(19:41):
Contender Series, the guy is so crafty on the ground,
and he's so smart on the ground. He's got good
double leg takedowns. And really, when you think about the
biggest weakness of Charles Johnson, that's it. It's his wrestling,
right We saw it in that Cody Dirton fight. Cody
Durton just ragged olled him to the map over and
over and over and over again, and with us to VM.
You know, having that long leg I think is making
the price a little bit shorter, and I think for
(20:03):
that reason alone, I think you got to get in
on him at this light price.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Yeah, it's amazing because Charles Johnson right now plus a
dollar fourteen. I'm sure it's going to be a popular
dog side here, but I'm picking up what you're putting
down very small.
Speaker 1 (20:13):
That you're getting a small price tag here in.
Speaker 2 (20:15):
The favorite just because he's been out of action and
maybe out of out of people's minds, if you will.
Speaker 1 (20:21):
In the fight game here you mentioned Peyton Talbot.
Speaker 2 (20:23):
He's the biggest favorite of the card at minus a
fifty against Nick Aguire. I can't play eight nine dollars
favorites anymore. After getting burned by Valentine chev Chenko against
Alexa Grosso the first time.
Speaker 1 (20:34):
Out, what do we make here of Talbot? Young fighter here?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Now down to six dollars, so maybe a little bit
better value here, but against another young fighter in Nick Aguire.
Speaker 5 (20:45):
You know, I actually think you might look for specific
round props to make this interesting, and I know you
usually don't see those until a little bit later in
the week, or they don't start to you know, pop
up all the places. But the reason I like later
round props for this one is that Peyton Talbot is
a guy who likes to be crafty in there, who
likes to show off a little bit. I think he
is going to go for the kill, and Nick Aguire
has shown that maybe he's not the most durable guy
(21:07):
on the whole planet. But I think as this fight
goes on, you're gonna start to see Peyton Talbot move
more and more towards that finish because he's gonna want
that finish.
Speaker 6 (21:15):
He's gonna want that stamp on his UFD debut.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
So I think if you look for him in like
a third round KO prop, you're gonna find a much
more manageable number, a number that's a little bit more
interesting because you know, yeah, looking at it right now,
it's on your screen. Just looking at that KO prop
maybe not the most enticing thing in the whole world,
you know, to get just one one type of potential finish,
I think he is gonna win by TKO. But to
make it a little juicier, I like I like late
(21:40):
in the fight.
Speaker 2 (21:40):
Wow, okay, so minus two ten if you just wanted overall,
but look for maybe a late round prop there, second
round or third round ko to get a better price
tag there.
Speaker 1 (21:48):
I look at a man hebas.
Speaker 2 (21:49):
I've been on her side a couple of times, haven't
cashed all those tickets. She's backing now against Louisana Pinhero.
She is a about a two to fifty betting favorite.
Speaker 3 (21:57):
Here.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Is there any concern now for a man of kind
of dropping I don't want to say dropping down a competition,
but when you kind of get to that mountaintop, don't
get there and they gotta pick up the pieces again
and you're you're laying two fifty, does that give you
a little pause?
Speaker 6 (22:10):
She's given me a little pause.
Speaker 5 (22:11):
I didn't like what I saw in the Macy Barber fight.
It concerned me quite a bit, you know that she
just kind of got bodied up and put down really easily.
It seemed like so I am worried about those things
with EBAs. But I will say this, the thing that
gives me a little bit more faith in this fight
is Luana Pinero as somebody who has had trouble with
people with physicality. She had trouble with Michelle Watterson's takedowns
(22:32):
Eebas should have.
Speaker 1 (22:32):
No problem, Dann. We look forward to it each and
every week. My friend always great to catch up with you,
and we will catch up with you when the UFC
comes back after the Thanksgiving holiday. There is everybody.
Speaker 2 (22:42):
Give them a follow at gumby Breeland. Come on back,
just get it started right here, first strike on VC.
(23:11):
With so many games of the board, there's no better
time to put the Vison experts to work for you.
Speaker 1 (23:15):
Become a vcent Pro subscriber today. Get access to our
daily best bets with the leaderboard to see which.
Speaker 2 (23:19):
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Speaker 1 (23:33):
Visit Visa dot com sash subscribe and sign up. Now
we are.
Speaker 2 (23:37):
Heading to the Second City to catch up with our guy,
Jordan Surewood. You can follow him on X as I
do at Wood on ESPN one thousand.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
He is also the host of the.
Speaker 2 (23:46):
Unnamed MMA podcast and Jordan. Before we get into this
card this week, I do want to look back with
you at last week's chaos of UFC two ninety five.
What's your biggest takeaway now that we have a new
interim heavyweight champion and we have a new light heavyweight
champion of the World.
Speaker 7 (24:02):
Well, I think personally I should have been smarter in
my handicapping of Tom Aspinall. I'm just reflecting back of
this was a guy that was pegged to be a
future heavyweight champion, and despite you know, the injury, and
despite the circumstances of a short notice fight, I should
have noticed at the end of the day, you got
serving a Paddlevich that that has leaky defense from a
striking standpoint. Curtis Blades was was tagging him in their
(24:25):
previous in the previous fight, and Aspinall was gonna find
the opening.
Speaker 4 (24:29):
So I missed that.
Speaker 7 (24:31):
But now I look forward, like what's next for Tom Aspinall, Like,
is he gonna just wait around for Steep b A
and John Jones to do their thing likely next summer,
or are we gonna you know, smart en up and
get Tom Aspinall a fight sooner rather than later, because look,
UFC three hundred is right around the corner, and although
we want Connor McGregor on the card, we don't want
(24:53):
Connor McGregor headlining the card. Do we want a title
fight headlining that card?
Speaker 6 (24:57):
Oh?
Speaker 1 (24:57):
What an interesting question you pose.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
Should Connor McGregor still be a headliner at UFC three hundred.
That is a bizarre theory since we haven't seen him
fighting forever. I'm with you on the Aspiral thing. I
was on the wrong side too on Pavlovitch. I was
concerned about the no working.
Speaker 1 (25:14):
His back was out.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
We didn't even know that before the fight, but we
knew he didn't even have a camp and yet to
roll through Sergey Pavlovitch like that, It is different level stuff.
Speaker 1 (25:21):
I wonder if Jalton Almeida could be next.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
That would be interesting to me to see if you
put that kind of overblown white heavyweight against a real
heavyweight here in tom Aspiral. Fascinating potential matchmaking to come.
Let's get to this week's card in the main event
here and do you like this matchmaking?
Speaker 1 (25:40):
Paul Craig a guy.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
Who he's becoming more well rounded, but we know he's
got big time deficiencies at the fight states standing against
a guy like Brendan Allen who feels like he can
do everything but sometimes maybe mentally makes mistakes inside the octagon.
Should Brendan Allen be over a four hour betting favorite.
Speaker 4 (26:02):
I don't.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
I don't think so. I mean, I yes, Brendan Allen
is extremely well rounded. He's obviously going to have a
decisive advantage on the feet. And look, he's only been
submitted one time in his mixed martial arts career, and
surprisingly it was against Travon Giles, like way back when
or early on in his career, and he's been in
(26:22):
there with some very good grapplers. I think the intriguing
thing is like how good is Paul Craig at won
eighty five? He looked good in his in his debut.
He shocked a lot of people with his ability to
submit Munez, a guy that Brendan Allen also you know
has a victory over. So are you are you trusting
Brendan Allen to do what he should do in this fight?
(26:43):
Push the pace, look to score on the stand up
and not make the mental mistake of going into Paul
Craig's guard. We've seen that happen before, and we know
what Paul Craig, the bear Jew can do, so I
think look the way to handicap This is certainly not
Brendan Allen at that four hour or favorite. I think
you've got to look at either guy, both fighters being finisher.
(27:05):
Paul Greg is lethal with his submissions and can find
opportunities there, and quite frankly Brendan Allen, I think it
could finish Paul Craig either via submission or all likelihood
which strikes either take k on the feed or ground
and pound. So my methodology, at least early on this
this fight week is look for the under, look for
the under the cash, knowing it's a five round fight,
(27:27):
that there's a plenty of time and opportunity to do so,
because I still think there's question marks about Paul Craig
and what he could do at one eighty five.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
There it is the under right now, not too much juice,
just a dollar twenty for under a round and a half,
so seven and a half minutes there in this potential
five round made event. You mentioned Craig with the finishing
potential k T k R DQS nine to one.
Speaker 1 (27:48):
The sub is five to one. You know, we didn't.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
We never thought al Mada and Derek Lewis would go
the distance the fight just to go to the distance
here is five to one plus five hundred. I mean,
we're not going to get another crazy night like we
had a couple weeks ago, are we No?
Speaker 4 (28:01):
I don't think so.
Speaker 7 (28:02):
I think that that had to do with the fact
that the two fighters matching up. I'll made it just
as we were just alluding to undersized heavyweight and not
able to get the submission that he did, and once
he had control firm grass of the fight, he was
just you know, happy enough to remain in the guard
of Derek Lewis and control him. That's not going to
be the case. Paul Craig too active of a guard
to fall into that trap. And Allen is an all
(28:24):
action type of fighter, So I suspect certainly the unders
to play.
Speaker 2 (28:28):
All right, So minus the dollar twenty there in the
co main event, you got Michael Morales, undefeated prospect, not
a prospect anymore when you're in the comin event of
a UFC card against Jake Matthews, a guy who can
be perplexing at time. But what we do know, obviously
he's got real ability to at twenty nine years young
against the twenty four year old and Morales, is this
too much too soon for Morales are the right next
(28:51):
opponent in his evolution?
Speaker 7 (28:53):
Now, look, I think Morales is victory over Griffin is
is you know in his previous fight is right there?
You know, Jake Matthews's guy been around the UFC for
quite some time, a stalwart of the welterweight division, wins
and losses.
Speaker 8 (29:05):
He's actually rotated wins and losses.
Speaker 7 (29:07):
So if pattern holds up, he's due for Ronel on Saturday.
And I think Morales is showcase. He's skilled everywhere, He's
good on his feed, very athletic, and obviously well versed
on the ground. I just think that that Jake Matthews,
you know, is that type of opponent similar to Griffin,
or he's going to challenge Morales and Morales is not
going to have the ability to go out and finish
(29:29):
to fight. I think Morales takes his foot off the
gas pedal the scores it controls with grappling and submission attempts.
But I think really Morales at a two dour plus
favorite I understand it, but I think I'm looking for
value there. So Morales via decision. I think this fight's
going to the judge of scorecards. I think Morale is
(29:49):
going to be content to continue to improve, evolve and
get probably the biggest name on his resume in the w.
Speaker 2 (29:55):
Cowle love what you've done there, So you're going to
turn a relatively big favorite to Morale to getting nice
juicy plus number plus two fifty via decision for Morales.
So that's going to be the player from Jordan True
would have loved that when you can ever flip those
numbers around the.
Speaker 1 (30:09):
Way you just did. I do you want to get
to the first.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Fight of the night, because this is interesting seeing Charles
Johnson on Twitter, he's excited to get back in there
first fight of the night. He is a small dog
here against Raphael Lestevi, a guy we haven't seen in.
Speaker 1 (30:21):
A while now, small favorite here for Raphael.
Speaker 2 (30:24):
Do you think he's playable? I'm seeing minus a dollar
thirty five right now.
Speaker 4 (30:28):
I think he is.
Speaker 7 (30:29):
But I think you've got a way to see what
he looks like Friday. This is the Gamblu special. You
gotta wait till way in to see what this guy
looks like because he struggled. He was supposed to make
his UFC debut in May, struggled away, didn't get to
the cage.
Speaker 6 (30:44):
So let's see what he looks like.
Speaker 7 (30:45):
But this is a guy with a lot of notoriety,
you know, a champion in SHOOTOU and LFA, respectable promotions
outside the UFC, and a guy that just grabs onto
you and holds you and gramples you to death. And
the one thing that we've seen Charles Johnson. Look, he's
got good cardio, he's got good take down the fence.
He'll probably have the stand up advantage, you know. Estvom
(31:08):
is more of a body, you know, utilizing his kicks
and stuff, not really going to the head. But Charles
Johnson struggles with guys that are like kind of like
wet blankets and just hold on to you, chain wrestle
you if you will. So that's why I like Estevon
because that's his skill set that I've seen that I
think is going to pay dividends at least early on
in his UFC career. So that's why I think as
(31:28):
a small favorite, I get it, I like it, I'm
going to play it. But I'm going to hold off
into just to be sure that Esteban gets through the scale,
the tough weight cut and is ready to fight on
Saturday afternoon, if you will.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
And I think Johnson's going to be a popular dog
pick there, so I'm picking up what you're putting down there.
You might get pretty good of value here with Rafael
as a small favorite. I want to get to the
wetsweight division here with Johnny Parsons against Euros medic in
medic right now nine to one, Parsons nine to three,
and Euros is a rather large favorite here at minus
two thirty.
Speaker 1 (31:58):
Should he be that big a favor?
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Well, first off, Parsons obviously shocked some people with his
victory over Danny Roberts when he go overseas and gets
into a just a barn burner of a fight and wins.
But I think people knew about Parsons or always you
know people that are in the know. So I cashed
on him as a dog. I think you did as well.
But I think this is a fight again, firefight. Someone's
lights are going out. Either one guy likes to stand
(32:23):
there in trade, look for a variety of strikes. Medick
certainly He's got some power in both hands. We've seen
him finish people before. Parsons can do the same. That's
how he fights, fights like a dog. So I think,
you know, not necessarily going to go on either side.
I think it might be a little bit of a
risk for Parsons because he's got some leaky defense. But
I think someone is going to sleep, you know, in
this fight. So I actually like to finish in this fight.
(32:45):
The under is what I'm going to pay attention to
between these two wealth Away.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
And plus anwer fifteen right now for the under a
round and a half, got about a minute ago.
Speaker 1 (32:53):
I want to get to Jonathan Pierce. I guess jo Anderson.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
Brito here, this has got a potential sneaky fight of
the night written on.
Speaker 1 (33:00):
What do you make of this matchup?
Speaker 6 (33:02):
Oh? Look at I mean that Brito victory.
Speaker 7 (33:03):
Ever Diego Lopez holding up pretty well in the Contender series,
but Brito, you know, three finishes.
Speaker 6 (33:08):
I think the outlier is Bill l Jail.
Speaker 7 (33:10):
That's a concern because Jonathan Pierce kind of fights similarly
to Bill Lgo.
Speaker 6 (33:14):
But then you look at Jonathan Pierce.
Speaker 7 (33:16):
What happened in that Joe los On time man, the
UFC Jitters, I mean good for.
Speaker 4 (33:19):
Joe los On. We love j Lo.
Speaker 7 (33:21):
That was great to see him perform like that. But
I just worry about again Parson's taken a big shot
from Joe Anderson Brito at some point, so I'm certainly
on the side right now with Britto.
Speaker 6 (33:32):
I think he could shot.
Speaker 7 (33:33):
Some people and get tears out of there in a
rather quick fashion. It won't be surprised if your strangles
him at some point towards the end of the fight.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
Plus an hour ten right now and Britos, I like
you figured out some plus money on a lot of
these fights. Appreciate it as always. Jordan will catch up
again very soon. Come on back, First Strike rolls on
here on visa. We are back here on first right.
(34:16):
Dave Ross here at Circus Sports Book in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada.
What a pleasure to be joined by former three time
NFL All Pro linebacker Shaan Merriman, who now runs Lights
Out xf MMA. It's great to have the man nickname
Lights Out back in the program.
Speaker 1 (34:33):
Sean, thanks for joining us today.
Speaker 2 (34:35):
You've got accept twelve coming up Saturday, November eighteenth, Thunder
Studio in Long Beach tell the people about their promotion
and how it's been coming along.
Speaker 9 (34:44):
Yeah, Lights Out Extreme Fighting twelve this Saturday in Long Beach, California.
If you're in Long Beach, you want to make sure
you get there. Get your tickets at LIGHTSOUTEXCEF dot com.
And if you can't make it there, we'll be live
on footbo TV Footbow Sports.
Speaker 4 (34:58):
If you don't have football, make sure you get it.
But Art is big man.
Speaker 9 (35:00):
We got something special coming up. Victor Rohads as you
see right now on the screen is fighting Boys Junior.
Victor's coming up from San Diego. You know, got Album
Morales on his card. Who fought in the USC for
a bid. He's fighting Ramos, who's out of Nick and
a DS camp. So I'm expecting one of those guys
to be there at some point. Tommy Aaron is fighting
(35:21):
on his card again. Who's Tony Ferguson's guys. We're locked
and loaded for this card, so make sure you guys
get there on Long Beat this Saturday, and again we'll
be live on Football TV for both sports.
Speaker 2 (35:33):
You know, Sean, it's amazing to see you make the transition,
obviously from your playing days in the NFL. Now to promoter, owner,
operator and running your own thing. Here, what's it been
like for you doing this?
Speaker 1 (35:42):
Because I can only think maybe a handful of former
athletes and then go on to do something else kind
of like this Oscar Dale Joya being a big, big
time promoter obviously in boxing. How has this been this
transition for you?
Speaker 4 (35:54):
Well, it's hectic, it's chaotic, hum.
Speaker 9 (35:56):
But you know again, I've been around this sport for
seventeen years and I wouldn't want to do anything else.
And more importantly, man, look, we want to get these
next up and cooming guys an opportunity, right, That's what.
Speaker 4 (36:07):
This thing is about.
Speaker 9 (36:08):
Obviously a lot of their aspirations is to go to
the UFC, have that opportunity to go there.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
We going to be a big platform to provide that form.
You know, we're jumping fifty to sixty.
Speaker 9 (36:18):
Percent sometimes even more than that on Fuboa to viewership,
and so people are finding out about us in the country.
So you know, we started out not a lot of
fire fighters, kind of trying to figure out who we were,
and now you know, we're getting calls from all over
the country for people coming to fight in lights out
extream fighting.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
Yeah, pretty cool man, And good on you for doing
it and giving these guys a platform, because that's exactly
what they need to show their skills.
Speaker 1 (36:40):
Tell the people what these fights have been like.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
The atmosphere for him you mentioned if you can't make
it down too long Beach, you can get on Fubo Sports.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
But for that crowd, for people that are.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
In attendance, what have they been seeing on a regular basis.
Speaker 4 (36:53):
It's crazy in there. It's intense. It's very intense.
Speaker 9 (36:57):
You know, we have rainbows Is coming down from Northern
California fighting somebody in southern California, Album Morales, and you
know that DS army man. They traveled, They traveled pretty tough.
And so you know last fight we sold out. We
had almost two hundred and fifty people outside, you know,
so I had to send someone out there to kind
of relay the update to the and the results of
(37:17):
the fight. So I felt bad for them, But that's
why I try to tell people. You know, you walk
ups are cool. If we have them, more than likely
we won't to get your tickets at lights out accept
dot com.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
There it is everybody, so check it out. Saturday, November eighteenth.
Pretty cool stuff what you're doing there. I do want
to get your thoughts because you mentioned you've been around
the sport now for almost two decades. Obviously goes back
into your playing days. When did you get involved with
MMA and was it helpful to you as a football
player learning another skill while still an active member and
a star in the NFL.
Speaker 4 (37:47):
Yeah, yeah, no doubt about that.
Speaker 9 (37:48):
It actually happened between my two thousand and five and
two thousand and six off season. I was with a
good friend of mine, Jay Glaize, over there at Fox Sports.
You know, he saw me boxing, which I grew up
in cre Pc County, Washington. I grew up boxing uncles
and were professional boxes, and so I just got in
the MMA. I wanted to help my hand out coordination.
He sent me an address. I started training with Randy
(38:09):
Gator and all these guys, and I never left his
sports since. And look, I try to tell a lot
of active players, especially, but even former players to kind
of pick up some kind of combat sports discipline.
Speaker 4 (38:19):
Man, it can really really help you out a lot.
Speaker 1 (38:21):
Yeah, no question about it.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
And know that area of the Neck of the Woods
very well from my DC days. And remember you obviously
in your Maryland days. And I remember when you were
picking this stuff up, and it is Is it interesting
now to see more athletes gravitating towards MMA. Would you
give them a doing a dot like, hey, don't go
at it too hard? Maybe from the from the beginning
where you mentioned the discipline in that aspect that it
brings to their careers.
Speaker 9 (38:45):
Yeah, just don't go into the to the wrong gym,
talking too much. That's what you don't want to do,
because look, a lot of us got pride. Man, we
are big, strong and close of athletic. But these guys
have been doing it for a very long time. They're dangerous,
they're very skilled. H and so it's a humbling experience
when you have a big athlete that's explosive. They can
(39:06):
do all these things, learning something new and getting your
butt kicked once in a while.
Speaker 1 (39:10):
Yeah, it is exactly right.
Speaker 2 (39:11):
You're gonna be humbled, certainly the first couple of times
you get in that gym.
Speaker 1 (39:14):
Are you still practicing? Are you still an MMA practitioner?
Speaker 4 (39:19):
I am? I am.
Speaker 9 (39:20):
I I feel some days now spar once a week
open Matt whether I'm in La uh Vegas, Texas, Arizona.
You know, most of the guys, you know, a lot
of USC fighters. They'll they'll see me hop on the
open matt Day and somethingy. They'll kind of they already
don't know me. They'll look at me like, what is
Sean Merriman doing down there, you know, kind of throwing
throwing hands. But I like to work, man and stay disciplined.
(39:41):
It keeps me in shape, gives me something to get
up for in the morning. And you know what, if
one of these guys don't like their contract, I got
to hold my own.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
So you know what, what are you walking around at
these days? What way class be putting you in?
Speaker 4 (39:55):
Way too damn heavy?
Speaker 9 (39:57):
We had a uh, look, we had we had a
charity event, a charity flag football event. I played against
last night, played last night for the charges for their
charges impact fun. And I wish they putting to Sean
Jackson that quarterback chase him around.
Speaker 4 (40:11):
I'm gonna be sore for the next three days. So
those days are done.
Speaker 1 (40:14):
Yeah, you can't be chasing around the Sean Jacksons of
the world. It's too fast these days.
Speaker 2 (40:19):
You mentioned, certainly, I got to ask you about UFC
two ninety five year takeaways from what you saw at
Madison Square Garden. We've got a new interim heavyweight champion
now and Tom Aspinall, and we got a two time
champion now in Alex Pahara.
Speaker 1 (40:31):
What was your biggest takeaway from either of those two
the co Maine and the main event?
Speaker 9 (40:36):
Perera Man, he's scary as hell, you know, just and
look the fights against Izy Man for him to kind
of bounce back, because when you get knocked out in
that caliber, you kind of you kind of lose a
lot of your confidence, you start doubting yourself a little bit.
And this guy is just a damn machine man. So
I'm happy for him. I think that every time in
the UFC. I've been to two of their fights, three
(40:59):
or three, two or three that fights in Madison Square
Garden and they just turned that place out.
Speaker 4 (41:03):
Man, it's a different atmosphere when you.
Speaker 1 (41:05):
Get that, it really is.
Speaker 2 (41:07):
And now we kind of play that waiting game now
with Tom Aspinall as the interim heavyweight champion.
Speaker 1 (41:11):
We don't know if it's going to be John Jones
next year in twenty twenty four. How do you for
a guy with.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
Your perspective, because you hear these debates and all kinds
of sports. Well, let me tell you about this guy
in my day was better than your guy this day.
John is kind of that guy that's gone to both
worlds because he's regarded as the greatest mixed martial arts practitioner.
And yet some are saying now that Aspinall is the
next and maybe that's a bad matchup for John.
Speaker 1 (41:35):
A fully healthy John Jones, you know north of forty. Now,
would you make him a betting underdog against Tom Aspinall?
Speaker 4 (41:43):
No?
Speaker 9 (41:44):
And it's like, you know when people bet against their chiefs, right,
how are you going to bet against his defending champ?
And they've already they're the ones with the title. How
do you bet against them?
Speaker 4 (41:52):
Now?
Speaker 9 (41:53):
You know, Dominic Rays was the closest guy that we've
seen ever probably give John Jones a problem, and we
have as anybody else.
Speaker 4 (42:00):
John Jones has walked for everyone else.
Speaker 9 (42:02):
So until you showed me someone else that's going to
do what John Jones have done, he is the greatest
HMMA fighter of all time. And I don't think that
should be any question to anybody.
Speaker 1 (42:12):
I'm with you on that.
Speaker 2 (42:13):
The other part that I absolutely loved that for UFC
two ninety five is when Pehara won, he called out
is He again even though Israel's out of signing, says,
I'm taking some time away from the sport. He's not
even the middleweight champion anymore, and yet Pehara still wants
one more shot at that. Do you want to see
that as a fight? Van Sean Merriman, see those two guys,
(42:34):
I don't care what the weight classes, go at it
one more time.
Speaker 4 (42:37):
I do. I do.
Speaker 9 (42:38):
And you know what, I couldn't understand that anything but
come to daddy when he said come to daddy, I
got that part of it. So look, it'll be a
great fight, great matchup that I think that that trilogial,
how do you want to call it? After that will
be around for a long time.
Speaker 2 (42:52):
Yeah, I'm right there with you. I don't care what
weight they happen to fight at. If that's what he
wants and is he's been back on him in social
media and the like. We'll see if that fight happens
very quickly. NFL, do you do you miss the playing days?
You're still watching either the Chargers of the Bills or
your former.
Speaker 9 (43:10):
Guys every Sunday, every Monday night, every Thursday night football
I'm locked in, and you know, for me, mats kind
of being away from the game, former former guys. You
started to become a fan of the past rushers. You know,
I love watching guys like Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.
You know, Joey Bosa I watched, I would Michael Parsers.
You become a fan of further away you step away
(43:31):
from the game.
Speaker 1 (43:32):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2 (43:34):
You still appreciate certainly good linebacker play that you're seeing
from some of those guys that you mentioned.
Speaker 1 (43:38):
Okay, we're gonna wrap it up. Got about forty five
seconds ago, but once again Lights out excep twelve, Saturday,
November eighteenth, Thunder Studio in Long Beach. Tell the people
again how they can access it if they can't get
there in person.
Speaker 9 (43:51):
Yeah, if you can get there, likesoutextpt dot com where
you get your tickets. If you can't whooping live on
football TV, Foo Mooth sports. Guys don't have footbo makes
you get it. This one is our biggest card. But
I'll tell you what, man, we got we got a
couple of guys. Well, I think what's gonna move on
to the USC after they're done with done with Lights Out?
Speaker 8 (44:07):
It's so it'll be.
Speaker 1 (44:08):
Nice and there it is again.
Speaker 2 (44:09):
It's the it's the proving ground, and all of a
sudden sometimes you can go from that level and keep
on ascending up. Lights Out Sean Merriman. It's great to
catch up with you man. Appreciate everything that you're doing
and continued success with Lights out XCEP.
Speaker 1 (44:22):
We appreciate it having me there.
Speaker 2 (44:25):
It is everybody, Sean Merriman, three time NFL All Pro linebacker.
Speaker 10 (44:30):
All right, much more to get you don't go anywhere.
It is first strike right here on VS in the
Sports Betting Network. We continue first strike by going to
(45:01):
our nation's capital right now.
Speaker 2 (45:03):
To catch up with Reidkoon. You can follow him on
X as I do at Fight Nomics. He's the author
of a book of the same name. Reid, it's been
wild weekend since UFC two ninety five. Two new champions now,
an interim heavyweight champion and a light heavyweight champion.
Speaker 1 (45:17):
But for those who missed it, like yours truly.
Speaker 2 (45:19):
What was the menu that you had for fight night
at UFC two ninety five, because in the break it
sounded decadent.
Speaker 8 (45:28):
I am returning to my roots full steakhouse mode for
a big pay per view card at MSG, you gotta
go big New York style steak filet mignon. All the
trimming is very good wine pairing, So yeah, I went
all out. It was a small audience, so I was
able to put a lot into the menu. Next time,
when I'm cooking for a lot of people, I can't
quite go that well on the plating.
Speaker 2 (45:49):
Mom is gonna just love this when she hears this,
because she always looks forward to that and her son
cannot cook like you can cook.
Speaker 1 (45:56):
I'll just leave it at that.
Speaker 2 (45:57):
Also, we always talk about, obviously how you got to
fight nomics in becoming the author of the book and
kind of inventing, if you will, the tail of the
tape that we use a.
Speaker 1 (46:07):
Lot in MMA.
Speaker 2 (46:08):
And I want to talk about something that you've kind
of greenlighted recently, and this is with MMA Odds Breakers
as well, where people can actually practice kind of what
you do and kind of create some of their own models.
Speaker 1 (46:20):
Can you tell the people how to do that?
Speaker 8 (46:23):
Yeah, you're probably familiar with Nick Kolikas who founded Breaker.
He's an old school MMA Odds guy betting expert and
is still in the game. So my uber tapes have
been showing up on his website for years now for
paying customers to go behind pine a paywall to get those,
but we decided to automate that and working with Nate Latshaw,
(46:43):
who is also on Twitter. In Nate Latshaw, he's been
tweeting a lot of statistics that he built after reading
the book Fight Nomics to sort of automate this, you know,
so he gets the latest stats after every card, he
updates fighter Metrics, and now you can go to that
website and basically pick any two fighters and your own
ubertail of the tape, or you see a preview for
(47:03):
each of the next two weeks of matchups. So as
of right now you can go in and see who
are the matchups this weekend, see how they stack up.
You've got comparison to an average for that division, which
helps you put some of these numbers into context, some
of the more nuanced numbers. So hopefully it's a nice
tool that people can bookmark and come back to and
use that as a research tool.
Speaker 1 (47:23):
Absolutely fascinating. Again. Nick Klik is one of the ogs
here of First Trike.
Speaker 2 (47:27):
You can follow him at fight Odds whenever you and
Nick are doing something together.
Speaker 1 (47:31):
I know it's going to be very successful.
Speaker 2 (47:32):
So looking forward to that, and again, everybody, that's a
tool that you can use as reads given it there
to use to try to increase your knowledge in the
fight game, certainly from a gambling perspective. So let's get
right to that and let's get to the main event
this week with Brendan Allen against Paul Craig. Craig's one
of those guys it's kind of fluctuated in waight back
down to one eighty five.
Speaker 1 (47:50):
He's fought it up at two oh five.
Speaker 2 (47:51):
Where he was kind of thought to be a little
bit too small for that division. Brendan Allen feels like
he's coming into his own right now.
Speaker 1 (47:57):
Twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (47:58):
I know the number is normally going to favor the
young guy eight years the junior of Paul Craig, But
did the number support that Allen should be over a
four dollar betting favorite?
Speaker 8 (48:07):
Yeah, price here is going to matter. Yes, the numbers
do favor the younger guy in this matchup Paul Craig.
He is thirty six, but I think it feels like
he's been around longer. He's been in some crazy wars.
I mean, if you go back to Showgun Hua, he
had a crazy fight with that guy, and so it's
a weathered thirty six. He's been around for a while
and taking some damage and Brendan Allen is the new blood.
(48:29):
But Brendan Allen succeeded primarily through his grappling. You know,
he'll point strike for a while, but it's really his
submission game that's been finishing fights. And when you think
about what is the number one thing that you don't
want to do with Paul Craig, it's go on the
ground with him. And so that's why I feel like
things are stacked up for Brendan Allen to get another
marquee victory in a main event, But there is that
(48:51):
wild card. So what price do you back off and
maybe take a flyer on Paul Craig to spoil the
show with a finish. Now that's the key I think,
bets or the way to go on this one, because
straight up, I'm not seeing much value in four to
one for Brendan Allen, and.
Speaker 1 (49:05):
There it is.
Speaker 2 (49:06):
Five to one is the prop number for sub for
Paul Craig. Now, again, if this fight does go down
to the ground, as you allude to with Brendan Allen
because that isn't normally what he likes to do.
Speaker 1 (49:17):
Maybe a club and sub happens. Paul Craig has done
that before as well. Nine to one.
Speaker 2 (49:20):
There is that because you see the prop price at
five to one. Obviously he increase from the plus three
thirty of just picking the Craig side. Would it only
be sub or pass for you if you like the
dog here.
Speaker 8 (49:32):
With Craig he does have striking finishes also on the ground.
It's one of those scenarios you might want to go
itd or just put a limit on it, you know,
under two point five. If Craig is going to pull
off the upset, it's probably going to be sooner rather
than later. With Brandon Allen, if he chooses not to
take this to the ground, and he chooses to point strike,
he is favorably positioned here. He does have much better accuracy,
(49:54):
he does have some power, and Craig probably doesn't want
to stand and take punches for a while. The problem
with Allen is he also has very bad defense, so
he gets hit and all of a sudden, Paul Craig,
with all the intensity that he brings into the cage.
He likes to swing for the fences. When he does swing,
he may not be very accurate. But you also don't
want to get hit by a former light heavyweight that way.
(50:14):
So there's a lot of wild cards here. I think
if I am going the Paul Craig route, especially if
there's more price inflation as the week goes on, I
think it would be a Craig inside the distance play
just for a small bit, because you're going to get
a very good return on that. Otherwise, you know, if
you're one of those parlay hunters, you want to play
it safe. Brendon Allen is still the safe pick. I
just don't know if I want to pay.
Speaker 1 (50:34):
Four to one for him plus three seventy right now.
Speaker 2 (50:36):
If you like Paul Craig inside the distance, by the way,
it's reverse for Brennan Allen. You're not getting that much
better value win by finishes, yet still lay three dollars
for Brendan Allen to finish via decision. You know you
want to get this sneaky prop way there, kotkr dq.
You can get plus money on Brendan Allen a plus
an hour twenty five subs plus two twenty five, but
you're playing that guessing game there if that fight does
(50:57):
hit the ground.
Speaker 1 (50:58):
I'm interested with the model show.
Speaker 2 (50:59):
And you have a young fighter like Michael Morales who's
been nothing but impressive every time we've seen him in
the octagon here still undefeated against the guy like Jack Matthews,
who I think we've expected maybe a little bit more
so far in his career. It's been flashy at times,
been disappointing at others. Morales now lane two eighty five here,
come back on Jake is plus two thirty? Any value
(51:22):
in the dog according to the numbers, I'm.
Speaker 8 (51:25):
Not seeing it currently, But you called that the important thing,
which is we don't know a whole lot about Michael Morales,
and the fights he's had so far were so impressive
that it's almost like looking back at last week when
we had Tom aspinall in there and you just don't
have a big sample size. But the numbers are amazing,
and so it's a question of do you believe it?
And right now, like, yeah, I would go with Michael Morales.
(51:48):
I do see him as having the more impressive numbers.
He's also bigger and rangier, And you're right about Jake
Matthews I mean, I was a big supporter of him
early on, but he's been pretty hit or miss lately,
kind of a five hundred fighter the last couple of years,
and so I think this is a favorable matchup for Morales,
whose striking metrics are kind of insane at the moment.
(52:09):
That's probably going to even out after he spends a
round or two with Jake Matthews. I don't think Jake
Matthews goes down quickly, but even for a young guy
at twenty nine, Jake Matthews has been dropped four times
and in a shootout he might be at risk here,
And so yeah, the price, the price isn't so crazy
that I can't believe the numbers. If we were getting
into the steam category four to one with Morales, I
(52:31):
would probably back off and say I just don't see
enough that I can believe yet. But right now he
is looking pretty amazing, and at minus two fifty, I'll
go with the favorite here.
Speaker 2 (52:40):
You know, I look at Chase Hooper and he's a
fascinating fighter to watch kind of grow up before our
mmais right. We've seen this before with other fighters, and
Hooper's now falling in that category here and It's odd
because sometimes he's a big fave, sometimes he feels like
a big dog. Now he's back to being over a
two dollars favorite against the Monkey King and Jordan Levitt,
who is as unorthodox as they come, but yet he
(53:03):
can surprise sometimes. I think when people start to count
him out. Is this a live dog scenario? Or should
the youngster now twenty four be over a two dollars
betting favorite this one.
Speaker 8 (53:15):
It's currently a pass, I think, and that's only because
the price came down quite a bit from where it opened.
I was seeing some early value on Levitt, and I'm
gonna I'm gonna have to wait, I think later in
the week and see where things land. But you're right,
Hooper looks good on paper, terrible defense, a pretty good offense.
He's gotten by with his ground game, so as Jordan Levit.
(53:36):
Jordan Levitt is actually the more eager wrestler of the
two and arguably has some better control metrics, maybe not
in the submissions, but in terms of pure wrestling, And
so that's why I'm leaning towards Levitt here for the upset,
but just barely. I do want to see where the
price lands, but that's because I think he's flying under
the radar a little bit. It seems like maybe the
(53:56):
market picked up on some of that earlier this week
and started throwing down on the under That's the one
I'm going to keep close tabs on, you know.
Speaker 2 (54:03):
With so many fighters making their debut. Just to kind
of a rule of thumb, you guys are not going
to when you run in the numbers for Yeah, you
might have other you know, other establishments that they've been
fighting in and other programs, but once I get to
the UFC, you're going to discount the old numbers until
you see it in the UFC.
Speaker 1 (54:19):
Correct, That's right.
Speaker 8 (54:21):
We need at least three appearances in the UFC. I
am not even including data White Contender Series. Depending on
the website, if you're on UFC Stats, you might see
those stats in there included. So I think other analysts
that are out there scraping the internet they might be
bucketing that in I personally exclude that. I just see
it as fundamentally a different platform, and that's just how
(54:43):
we've done it in the past. You know, when we
had Strikeforce in WEC coming over, we had to use
some of that data for a brief period of time
just to get enough critical mass. Now it's purely UFC
fights only, and.
Speaker 2 (54:53):
Really that shows discipline too, right that Look, you've got
a system that's been very profitable.
Speaker 1 (54:58):
It works that way.
Speaker 2 (55:00):
We're not gonna just because you Seemon Contender series now
they get to this stage. We're not gonna upset the model. Correct,
We're gonna stay with what what the model is.
Speaker 6 (55:08):
That's right.
Speaker 8 (55:08):
You want confidence more than anything else. It's okay to
be wrong as long as in the long run you're
being right more often than not in finding price value.
But yeah, you got to have a clean system, a
nice algorithm, and stick with what works.
Speaker 2 (55:21):
And Reid koons system is right much more than it
is wrong. Reid, appreciate you as always, my friend. Enjoy
the fights this week. That's going to do it for
this edition of First Strike. We'll see you after the holiday,
right back here on Vson
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