January 9, 2024 • 44 mins
The return of First Strike!!! We are back and ready to go for 2024!!!
UFC Fight Night goes down this Saturday, headlined by a Light Heavyweight match between number 3 ranked Magomed Ankalaev versus number 7 ranked Johnny Walker!!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
And for the first time in twenty twenty four. Welcome
to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host Dave Ross.
For the next hour, gonna break.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Down UFC Maine event.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Yes, we finally are back to fighting in twenty twenty
four of Macha Man Nclive against Johnny Walker in a
rematch of sorts for these guys after what happened three
months ago with a no contest, They're finally gonna finish
what they started three months ago in Abu dab right
here in Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Cannot wait for that fight to come on Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
So gonna have Dan Rieland, Jordan Sherwood, Loop Nacaro and
Reed Koon for the next hour. We begin by shipping
up to Boston to say hello for the first time
in twenty twenty four to our guy Dan Rielin following
him on X at gumby Verewin. Dan, what did you
do during this historic break that the UFC took.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Well, the Sports Gambling Podcast Network's MMA Gambling Podcast takes
no break. So we broke down Samurai Fight House from
Buenos Aires, Argentina. We broke down Octagon MMA out in Prague.
You know, we broke down regional MMA all over the world,
because guess what, MMA doesn't stop what the USC does,
so neither do we.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Beautiful love it. That's the way you buy your time here.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
When we are back to the big boys here, certainly
in the light heavyweight division, when we get to Akalive
against Johnny Walker, and again I mentioned it off the top,
what happened three months ago Nabu Dhabi look like a
fight that Uncliath had control of. Then an illegal knee,
some confusion, some language barriers as to whether or not
Johnny Walker could go on or not, they stopped the fight.
You know, I think what gets lost in translation a
(01:47):
little bit is the fact that it did look like
unc Calive was dominating that fight. He's now a huge favorite,
almost a five dollar betting favorite to dominate again. Do
you think the pause is good for Johnny Walker to
see kind of what he did wrong? Or like we've
said before, Dan, you never know what to expect of
what Johnny Walker's thinking in a Johnny Walker fight.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, I don't think there's any idea what Johnny Walker's
thinking because they asked him what country he was in,
and he was like, I wouldn't have known that if
I hadn't gotten it in the hand. So, you know,
Johnny Walker is a tough guy to handicap all the
time anyway. But I will say this, you know, like
everybody has that narrative that Megan at ank Alive was
sort of the dominant fighter in that fight, and like
clearly looked like he was gonna win that, you know,
(02:26):
until he hit that body shot about two and a
half minutes in. I actually think Johnny Walker was getting
the better of the striking and it buckled Johnny Walker
a little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
He throws the flying.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Knee, winds up getting taken down, and yeah, it didn't
work out for him once it hit the mat.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
It looked pretty bad there.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
But he seemed to be doing good digging for underhooks
and keeping Anklive at range with strikes before that moment
before he got kind of stunned.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
And I actually.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Think that Johnny Walker holds a much better chance than
the odds sit here. I don't know necessarily that I like,
you know, I'm rushing out to grab myself a Johnny
Walker ticket plus three sixty, But I think the way
that this line has risen on Magnet Ankoliath is just
put it in an unplayable range for me, negative four
to seventy. I don't want any part of that. I
don't want any part of that in a you know,
(03:10):
a parlay. I don't want any part of that in
straight money line. And if you look at all of
the different props, you know, like, yeah, he probably gets
it done with the TKO. If he does, we saw
him hurt Johnny Walker to the body, and even that
line doesn't look interesting in any way, shape or for him.
So for me, it's kind of played itself into a
dogg or pass spot.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
You look at the total rounds here and again five
round even though it's not a title fight obviously main
event where it could potentially go on all five. It's
juiced here not that much at seven and a half
minutes to over is just a dollar forty again getting
in the head of Johnny Walker to pace himself to
not throw something wild, so a takedown can occur for
(03:50):
Rounc alive because.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
He's got a seven inch reach advantage here. If he
can keep the fight standing and keep it there, he'd
have some built in advantages. Is there a lean one
way or the other? I think this gets done quickly
inside of five minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Definitely did the over.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I mean, I think the first fight would have gone
over seven and a half minutes had it not been
an illegal strike, right Like, if you let Johnny get
up in that spot, I think he survives him minute
twenty left. And I don't think there's any doubt with
the way that he was establishing range and staying away
from the big shots to Ank Live while he over
exerted himself, I don't think there's any doubt that Johnny
Walker stays alive for another two and a half minutes there,
or you know, for that it mattered Magmatical Lives stays
(04:26):
a live for two and a half minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Because this Johnny Walker at Straight.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Blast Gym so far has been infinitely more patient than
the Johnny Walker that we were used to seeing when
he was up and coming, when he was doing lots
of spinning stuff getting into lots of trouble that way.
And I mean like the only spinning thing that he
threw against Anklive kind of got him into trouble. I
expect him to be even more patient the second time.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I tend to agree with you. To me, Mileen would
be towards that over as well.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Again not as big a price to pay there, just
a dollar forty to go over seven and a half minutes, Dan,
I always love to talk undercards with you and find
some value out there and.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Certainly fighters that you like.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
One of them early on here in the bantamley division
Marcus McGee back in there over a two dollars betting
favorite here. Is the price too steep for you against
as a guest on blonas here? Or do you think
that McGee should be this rifle favorite here at over
two dollars I'm seeing right now? What about I got
(05:20):
pau mcglass. Two fifty eight is what I'm seeing right
here from Marcus McGee.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, I think two fifty eight is still undervaluing him. Man,
this dude throws absolute hammers when he boxes. I love
how composed he is. Clearly, you know, having John Crouch
in his corner has been really great for him. He's
developed well. He's also one of those fighters that spend
enough time in the regional scene where he clearly has
worked out some of the kinks in his fight game
(05:43):
before he's gotten to the UFC. So we're looking at
a guy who's not a prospect, but a fully formed
fighter at this point, and Bolanos is a guy who's
been tagged a whole bunch of times in his career,
and that's a problem against the guy who hits as
hard as Marcus McGee now negative two fifty. You know,
I'm never one of the ones who's going to tell
you to go out there and empty the bank account
on somebody who's you know, that big of a favorite
(06:04):
and so to speak. But I do think when the
Koprop shows up here, and I've seen them, you know,
dabbling around to different places, I think you're going to
see a great number on the Koprop here, you know,
Like I think it's an obvious outcome for me that
Marcus McGee is going to knock out Gaston Belongos. I
think he's going to do it early. You could probably
find round props here and stuff like that on him too.
But yeah, Marcus McGee couldn't be higher on the gay.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Yeah, I love that.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Again, that's a great way to identify and turn those
prices around there instead of paying a lot of money
here from Gee either will first round if it think
it's going to be early, and get some plus money there,
or by KOTK or two to one right now you
can get on the Ko prop. So how about that
set at Lance two fifty can get plus two dollars
there on McGee at a really.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Nice price tag.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
You know, every time, I can't believe in twenty twenty
four now that we're talking about a fighter as Britain
has O steam producer likes to point out that the
pitbull Andre Lowski was fighting professionally in nineteen ninety six. Dan,
you and I are both big Cowboy fans Dallas Cowboy's
won a super Bowl in nineteen ninety five. Orlovsky's getting
ready to get into an octagon the next year has
(07:08):
been that long, and here we are now, Orlobski, you
can understand why against Waldo Costio Cortez is a big
dog against the Costa here plus four fifty five is
what I'm seeing for Orlovsky. Can the pitbull turn back
the hands of time against a guy like Waldough?
Speaker 5 (07:25):
I think so.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
And here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I'm first of all big on Verarolovski fan grew up
watching him, which is an insane sentence to be saying
about a guy still fighting in twenty twenty four. But
two things that I really like about his game is,
first of all, he is re established basically a point
fighting system since he's turned you into his late thirties,
early forty. He's working with Matt Brown. He's hitting leg kicks,
(07:48):
he's hitting jabs, he's staying out of the range of
big fighters. And it's worked sometimes against some of the
guys who you know, maybe are a little bit more sloppy,
the Carlos Felipees of the world, and it's not worked
against Tom Maspital. So when you're looking for where does
Waldo Costa or Costa Costa a Cortes following this range,
(08:09):
I don't trust him. What I've seen from him, both
when he was on Contender series, when he was you know,
on the regional scene, what he's done so far in
the UFC. He's a guy who doesn't have a great
gas tank in the first place. He's a guy who,
when he's pushing forward against the guy like Andrea Arolovski,
I think is going to over exert himself and he
for once is not going to be fighting a heavyweight
who will be tempted to turn around a knockout blow. Right,
(08:31):
Andrea Arolowski does the smart thing. He does the simple thing,
which has hit him with a jab and get the
hell out of there. And I think at plus four
fifty five, which is an insane return on this guy,
even if you just want to fade WCA here, I
think that's the right move.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
You know, by decision for Alovsky is six to one,
but again, you're not getting that much more than.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
The plus four to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Would you just play the four to fifty five in
case Orlovski actually hurt Waldough and went in for the finish.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
I don't think there's any way he tries to, is
the thing. And I don't even mean that is disparaging
to Andrea Irolowski. I think if Waldo Cortez a Costa
absolutely tired himself out to the point where he could
not punch anymore Homer Simpson style here, I don't think
Andrea Rolofski would go over and nudge him over. I
think he would just stay at range.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Yeah, just winning on points if that's what it takes
for the former champion.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Here.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Let's get to the main card, and Ricky Simone's back
in there against Mario Bautista. Simone probably didn't end twenty
twenty three the way he wanted to now against Bautista.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
My star eighty here is we're.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Seeing here Bautista the comeback there is plus a doar fifty.
How do you measure out these two bandam wites?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
You know, I think this line is actually a little
bit too low on Ricky Simone. And the reason basically is,
you know, I bet against Mario Batista last time he fought,
when he fought Demon Black Chear, and you know, it
was kind of maybe against my better judgment because Demon
Black Shair was coming off of like what fourteen fourteen
days from his last fight seven days notice. But the
thing I know about Mario Batista is while he is
(10:02):
an exceptional offensive wrestler, he does have some holes in
his defensive wrestling. He's given up takedowns two guys like
Deman Black Cheer, and some people even argue Black Sheer
won that fight because of his offensive grappling right against
a guy like Ricky Simon who scores take down. I mean,
he scored two on Sonya Dong, which, like, in retrospect
watching what Sonya Dong did to Chris Gutierrez, it's insane
(10:22):
to think that he was the one establishing the wrestling
against Sonya don man. I think he's gonna have an
easy day in the wrestling department with Mario Batista, and
at the end of the day, this negative one to eight,
he's gonna look silly.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
Yeah, that song youa don Loss doesn't look as bad
as it did on fight night on that in that's
showing there in five rounds, getting stopped in that fifth
and final very quickly.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
About a minute ago here Jim Miller twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
He's still back out there, Gabriel Benitez, What do you
make of bad moon rising here?
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Can he get it done again in the old vet?
Speaker 6 (10:50):
I think so?
Speaker 3 (10:50):
And it was crazy to me that he opened up
as an underdog. He's now moved his way into being
a you know, decent sized favorite, right and it does
the line keep seeming to go up, So jump on
that as quickly as you can. But the bottom line
for me is that Gabriel Benitez is a guy who
likes to get into a firefight and is fighting a
guy who's shown I can't believe we're saying about this
about Jim Miller really heavy hands lately, Like this is
(11:11):
a guy who now is a power puncher and has
been knocking people out much younger than him. I think
Jim Miller's got the ability to outgrapple him. I think
if it does get turned into a firefight, Jim Miller's
got the chin to take it.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
I like Miller by ko.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Wow, forty years young, still kicking Dan. Great to see
it in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
Man, appreciate it as always, and we'll catch up again
soon when we come back.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
We're shipping up to Chicago, to the second City to
catch up with Jordan Sheran would come all back.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
It's first strike here on Lisa.
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we go to the second city, the great City of Chicago,
to catch up with our guy, Jordan Gerl, which you
can follow him on X as I do at Wood
on ESPN one thousand. Jordan, is it snowing in Chicago?
(12:48):
You know I only lived there for eight years. I
don't recall snow.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, we're getting dumped on for the first time pretty
heavily this winter. About six inches expected. But look, I
knew it was gonna happen at some point.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
You guys had a mild mile winter so far.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
So mild winter so far. It's just unfortunate for me
that it's happening now while the kids are back at school,
and now while they were on break where we could
go sledding and nice skating and do all that fun
stuff when it's snowing, So I might be shoveling tonight, Dave,
if you remember that.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Oh I'm trying not to laugh. No, it's it's it's
lovely the summertime. Those two weeks of summer are fantastic. Okay,
let's let's get to this card, Jordan, because the UFC
is in fact back and in this main event, you
look at Akalave against Johnny Walker. Here you go back
to what happened three months ago in Abu Dhabi and
(13:40):
again kind of look like Anklia walk outd his moments
early illegal strike. This fight is then a no contest officially.
How do you see the quote unquote rematch breaking down?
And how much do you take away from what you
saw before it was stopped the first time?
Speaker 4 (13:55):
I'm gonna take away a lot, I am. I think
we saw both fights were extremely tentative. Both guys were
kind of respectful of each other's strengths during the first
couple of minutes of that fight. Then we saw, you know,
some interaction, and then Kali gets the fight to the ground.
I think he knows that now, he knows that likely
(14:17):
he can get this fight to the ground whenever he
wants to. And I yes, Walker was on his way
up to his feet when those illegal strikes were thrown.
But I think on Cliff understands now. Look, he knows
where the advantage is. The odds are certainly indicated we're
expecting a domination for Maga on calliab so I don't
(14:37):
really believe these guys are gonna waste each other's time
now that we're into the the main event. Now, albeit
Johnny Walker talked about, you know his two wage under
SPG Ireland. Cardio's good, he can go hard for five rounds.
I just don't think he's going to have that luxury.
I think Maga leg and Cliab knows he's got the
advantage on the feet. He knows he can get this
(14:59):
fight to the ground, and he wants he's gonna not
waste any time whatsoever, get this fight to the ground
and get Johnny Walker out of there as quickly as
he probably envisioned he was going to be able to
do the first time that they met.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
So would you look to the under a round and
a half?
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Would you can get plus money on here I've seen
about plus a doar ten.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Here early in the week.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Or would you look at an Uncle eliav Via subs
plus two eighty fifty other it doesn't seem likely. There's
the ko prop you could cut that navit minus two
sixty five. Would you look that way if you like
the uncle I have said aside, or say, hey, Johnny
Walker could still hurt him with hands. So there's a
couple of ways to get it done inside of seven
and a half minutes.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
Yeah, I think I'm playing it safe and just understanding
Walker and just how you look how dangerous he is,
and we'll talk about it. I mean, he's a different
fighter with the new coaching staff, and I think he's
a more cerebral fighter with the coaching staff. I mean
the way that he put away Paul Craig is crazy
on one leg. So he's got that versatility in his game.
(15:59):
I just think, look, we're talking about Maga leg and
Clive that like great probably should be the light heavyweight
champion of the world. But he's had a you know,
an absolute ag of a fight when he fought Yaan Bolohovich.
So here we go. Let's get him in the title
mix with the dominating win over guy that's surging in
Johnny Walker.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
Did you say intelligence and Johnny Walker in the same sentence,
because that normally I did.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
Didn't I maybe it's a new thing for twenty twenty four.
We're going opoh. But look, I mean he has been
fighting a lot smarter. Yeah, you do have to give
him credit. But outside of the cage, if you fail
him on Instagram and social he's a great follow. He
makes some pretty interesting choices with his livelihood.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Yeah, he's a very interesting guy. But you're right, I
mean it's all jokes aside. He really has been more
cerebral inside the octagon that we've seen in years past.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
That'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
But you're right, aglive has a decided advantage on the ground.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
I wonder if he'll implement that early and often.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
To Jordan's point, to get plus money here at under
seven and a half minutes, I want to get to
a that I did not think we'd still be talking
about in twenty twenty four, and certainly not as a
small fave, and that's Jim Miller.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
I mean, he just he won't retire certain guys.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
And by the way, why would he at forty when
he's still fighting the way he is against Gabriel, against
Ramiro Benitez. Rather, here, Gabriel is a small dog here
plus a dollar twenty. I'm the Benita size. Miller is
right now minus dollar eighteen. We've seen the updated odds here.
What do you make of old man Jim now at forty?
Speaker 4 (17:28):
Well, look, those the odds are updated, I mean when
the fight was released and up until I think Monday
or even Sunday or Monday. He was the underdog was
Jim Miller, so money clearly coming in on him. You
could also probably handicap it like minus eighteen hundred. No
matter the result of this fight, he will be fighting
at UFC three hundred. I'm confident in that the Dana
White's gonna find a way to get him on that
(17:50):
card because he was on one hundred, he was on
two hundred. It makes sense for him on b a thread.
But look, he's still dangerous, He's still got power. We
saw that in a recent first round fin that he had.
He's a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, and in a
guy against Benita is a guy that's bit around the block,
a veteran that's been in there with some of the best.
Is a perfect stylistic matchup for him because of his aggression,
(18:13):
because of the fact that he also wants to look
to get in a phone move and possibly take this
fight to the ground. So look, Benita is certainly from
America Kickboxing Academy, good coaching staff there. Wins and loss
is kind of alternating for him. He's got power, but
I don't think Miller is gonna be threatened anywhere. I'll
(18:33):
say this, I think we're getting an under. But I'm
gonna look at at two and a half just playing
it safe, So probably a would have, you know, juice
to that as those odds reflect there under at one
and a half. But I think we're seeing a finish
in this fight. I think Jim Miller that's the type
of fighter that he's become, and he's a guy that
can get stoppages a variety of different ways. Benita is
(18:55):
the same. Benita's also really puts himself in some dangerous
position and situations. That's not something you do against a
veteran as savvy as Jim Miller. So I'm side with Miller.
How could you not love the guy. I'll take him
at a dollar eighteen, would have loved him at plus money.
But I think I think we're getting a finish in
this fight. I think one guy is getting put to
(19:16):
sleep or getting.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Knocked out Beninaz it's not likely twelve to one prop
for the sub Now the Kotko prop you can get
over two dollars there for the Benita side.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Would you go win by finish for Jim at.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Plus a dollar fifty versus the Kotkr sub price, because
for Jim, both those things could be in play.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Yeah, I think he's an equal opportunitist. I think probably
more likely he stuns Benitez, gets him to the ground
and submits him. But as we've seen, Miller's power still
carries with him. That's like literally the last thing to
go in MMA. So yeah, let's just do inside the distance.
Put a little bit more value on Jim Miller to
win the.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Fight, all right, plus a dollar fifty there for Miller
to get it done inside the distance. Bruni Ferira is
a small favorite over Phil Hawes. See I'm seeing about
dow thirty today, basically pus ten on the Hawes side.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
How do you handicap this fight?
Speaker 4 (20:03):
Yeah? Look, I mean look, obviously he had a humbling
experience his last time out, losing that. Oh coming in
as an unefeated fighter and a big favorite, but now
he's getting served. The guy that's gonna just stylistically a
matchup that's perfect for him, Ferrera, who's known as the Hope,
that's his body type, and he just goes Holks smash
in there, and look, Hawes is kind of gonna give
him that fight. He's gonna give him a fight that's standing,
(20:25):
give him a guy that's susceptible to the knockout. We've
seen Hawes, you know, lights go out of intwo it
of his last three losses that come via Ko. So
I think we all, you know, every single fighter needs
to you know, eventually they're gonna lose, They're going to
learn from that experience. And I think Ferra comes out, uh,
you know, as respective of a fighter it as he is,
and gets the win and likely gets the knockout as well.
(20:48):
So I think you could add a little bit more
for him inside the distance in him via Ko Hawes's chin,
just as you can't trust it anymore.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yeah, you know, it feels like a pretty good price
act there on Bruno coming off that law. This would
be way inflated if he didn't have that, if he
still had.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
That O in his record. So probably pretty good value
right there.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
And again kotk R TQ is plus a dollar twenty five.
I want to go to an early fight that you like,
and that's Tom Nolan against Nicholas Mada here and now
no one right now over a three dollar betting favorite.
But I think you have a different way that you
do like to play this to shorten that price tag.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Yeah, look, if we don't know much about Noan, obviously
he's coming making his UFC debut, but the film on
him on the regional scene is that he does have power.
And what we do know about Mada is that he's
a guy that's susceptible to the knockout or getting a knockout.
But I think in his last three fights, two of
them have he's been knocked out. He's an extremely short
stout fighter for the weight class. I think he's five
(21:44):
nine to five to ten. He's going in there against
a guy that's six foot three, so it's going to
have the reach advantage, going to have the size advantage,
and just look, just hasn't corrected the defense. He hasn't
corrected the fact that he leaves his chin susceptible, whether
it be the hands or an elbow in the case
of his most recent defeat getting knocked out. So I
think No. One, certainly maybe a little bit risky because
(22:07):
he's a new guy in the UFC. So add a
little bit more value to it and do it via
Ko to add a little bit to the newcomer to
the UFC.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Only about twenty seconds ago, Jordan, how's Chicago after losing
again to the Packers.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
What are they doing at quarterback?
Speaker 4 (22:20):
Jesus, I will at your guest is as good as mine.
I think if you're a gun in my head. They're
keeping everybody rinsing and repeating and bringing everybody back. And
that sucks.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
They're keeping everybody, so says Jordane Drewood. Appreciate it. Give
him a follow.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
What on esbo one thousand, the host of the unnamed
MMA pod. When we come back, We're going to Arizona
Kitchen with our got a looping and grow next to here.
Speaker 7 (22:41):
I'm fust right.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Before you make your next mat, be sure to visit
visa dot com check the current betting splits data. Want
to know the money and bets some moving for every
single NFL or Bowl game. Well, those are all done,
but the betting splits page is updated with draftingsides every
five minutes. You can see the changes in all the action,
find out where the public is betting based in the
number tickets where the money doesn't match the public opinion.
We're always improving our betting splits and recently added soccer
(23:31):
betting splits from around the world. Betting splits another way.
Vs is here to make you a smarter vetter year round.
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vison
dot com slash splits. We now catch up with our
guy Lufinacaro. You can follow him on x as I
do at Gamblo. Coming to us from the great state
of Arizona, lou for the first time.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Happy New Year. We're back here.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
In twenty twenty four. It's been a minute. How did
you take some time away? The UFC took almost a
month off.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
Well, first of all, thanks for having me. Happy New
Year to everyone. The rest is always great, specifically Dave,
there's a seven hundred member database that has to be
updated and you know, cleaned up, and so the old
fighters go off, the new fighters go on. I also
(24:24):
am a football NFL only handicapper, and so it was
really nice to be able to focus solely on that
for a few weeks and get a little break from
the UFC. But boy, the UFC is our bread and butter.
We're the only sport that goes January one to December thirty. First,
(24:46):
we're not seasonal. I love the setup. I love what
the UFC does for us. By way, of offering US
forty to forty four cards per year, and I'm ready
to rock and roll.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Could have said it better myself, will very well put here,
very very appreciative of what the UFC does for people
like you and me. Let's get to it here, because
about business podcast. You get that each and every week.
And I know the Sneak Teap is already out, lou
What do you have out there for everybody that gives
that great podcast to listen?
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Sneak Teap just takes a seven minute look at opening
lines for each week's fight card. At this point in time,
and I mentioned this on the pod, we're in the
throes of NFL playoffs, so there are no pay per
views until next week because they really know their place
(25:34):
and so we get overshadowed a bit by the NFL.
But that changes come February. You'll see much more dynamic
and volatile market movement once we get to February. This
card showed just a couple of favorite switches and modest changes.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Obviously, with the main event here Malcolm Man An Calive
against Johnny Walker, you can understand why an Calive is
a big favorite. Again, almost a five hour betting favored
against the wild Brazilian who's not as wild I guess
these days inside the octagon, but Lou, I know we're
not in the business of land big price tags like this.
When you look at the main event, will it be
different from the first time around, which was a new
(26:15):
contest after you know, three months ago in Abu Dhabi
where looked like Akalav was starting to take control until
that Ilia strike caused the postponement of the rest of
that matchup.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
How do you view this quote unquote rematch boy.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
That's I'm glad you bring me right to that. That
was very very odd outcome and overall evolution in that fight.
On the one hand, it's clear that Uncle I have
made a mistake and hit Walker grounded. But after that,
the oddity was to me that it looked like Walker
(26:53):
didn't want any part of the fight anymore until they
called it off and then he put on a show.
And so I'm maybe, and I'd love people to correct
me if I'm wrong. I thought he didn't want anymore.
And quite honestly, the way this fight sets up is
you got this flamboyant striker and Johnny Walker that I
(27:15):
think needs to get back to some flamboyance. Clearly, if
you just take a Brazilian off the street and a
Russian off the street, they hate each other. Now you
take a Brazilian fighter and a Russian fighter, you add
a little stringency to that formula. These guys want to
kill each other. Walker by knocking ank Eliah's head into
(27:35):
the fourth row, and Uncliah by being able to take
Walker down. Now, the difference in this fight is we've
got five rounds instead of three. I think you see
Uncliath take a measured approach, systematically tate, let Johnny get
some of his juice out of him, but ground him
and then sub him out. I think Uncliah is in
(27:58):
a very good position provided he doesn't get it, provided
he doesn't try and take care of his business too
quickly and rush in to a knee, to a spinning
elbow or something that Johnny can catch him with. Now,
Walker is a brown belt and BJJ, but we don't
(28:18):
see him use it that much. His takedown defense is substandard,
and it's clear the path that each man wants to take.
I believe, and I'm cheating now by looking to see
if there's a total on this far.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Yet one and a half. Yeah, we got seven and
a half minute there for you, Lou.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
And again it's slightly juiced to the over at minus
doar forty the under plus a dollar ten if you
think it gets done inside of seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
But I guess you're right. I mean Walker wants to
look at that.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
If you're on the Walker side, that ko prop at
six to one, would you look at the at the
subside for alcohol, I have at plus a fifty. You
think it's ground and pound if he gets him down
to the ground.
Speaker 5 (28:53):
Yeah, these are these are great questions, and usually those
that watch our fine show know that I I'm a
little tepid when it comes to taking risk, and so
I leaned to the itd that way I get both
inside the distance. And I do believe that's how Magamed
Uncle Elijah will finish this fight. I believe he'll accomplish
(29:15):
a victory inside the distance.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
Yeah, minus four dollars fronk alive to get it done
inside of five rounds for that prop, let's get to
a rematch in the comin event mental cape, Yeah is
a cop brother is minus two sixty five. I guess
with thea Nikolau now plus two fifteen and plus two tens.
It would have been of money changing there. Mano is
an interesting fighter. We saw him go off recently at
(29:38):
a press conference and there's a when you look at him,
he feels like he's got championship style potentially in the
flyweight division. What do you make of this rematch here?
And again, Cop right now is minus two fifty eight.
I'm seeing here on the big board.
Speaker 5 (29:53):
Well, we have Nicolao on a bounce. Here's a guy
that won four good fights before he ran into one
against to Brandon Roy Vallen, and that can happen to anyone.
I think compelling to this fight, Dave, is that they
fought previous and Cop was just a young, up and
coming talent. He wasn't near as developed or capable or
(30:16):
athletic and powerful as he's grown into at this day.
And in that fight, Nicolau won a close split decision,
and at the time watching the fight, I thought Cop
might have won it, be that as it may a
different day, different time, and I think CoP's just too athletic,
(30:37):
too fast, too powerful. The Brazilian Nicolau was going to
have to try and engage somehow, and that's where he
is going to find himself in some risk. This fight
opened some time ago. Cop was only minus one eighty.
I tried like heck to get him tied into a
parlay one way or another. I couldn't make the other
(30:58):
side work, and so I've lost good sixty cents in
value and it's going to have to be maybe an
inside the distance now, which I feel pretty confident for
Cop as well.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Plus money on that one, Lou, you can get plus
an hour fifty for Cop inside the distance there, So
again instead of laying the bigger number now as it
has ballooned a.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Little bit, I think it's really good advice there.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
If you're on the mental side here, you can get
him at plus an hour fifty to get this done
inside of three rounds in the comin event.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Another fight that I don't think many.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
People will hit the cards is Gabriel Benitez against Jim Miller.
The ageless Jim Miller, now forty years young, doesn't look
like he's lost a whole lot off his fastball of anything.
Lou looks like he's picking up some power maybe even
in his advancing age. He has flipped to a smaller
favors about minus a dollar eighteen here against Benitez. Do
(31:49):
you trust old man Jim to get it done once again?
Speaker 5 (31:54):
Benitez opens one fifty five in this fight the way
I handicap, I think that is close to correct. So
I disagree with Miller going to the favorite. And I'm
not taking anything away from Jim Miller, but he's fighting
a guy that's five years younger, hasn't really had problems
being subbed. He's a He goes out there and wants
(32:16):
to throw down, and when he gets in trouble, it's
by the ko because other guys tee off on him,
and so I don't see that threat from Miller. I
consider Benitas a live dog.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
I want to get to another fight because again, sometimes
we get the recency bias in the betting market.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
We saw Ricky smoone.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
It did not look good against Songa Dong in a
fight he was favored to win at a main event.
And now I don't know that that loss to Songa
Dong looks as bad as it did maybe the first
time we all watched it happen right. And now he
is a favorite against Mario Bautista, but maybe not as
big a favorite because he's bouncing back or coming back
off of that loss. Is there any value here in Simone?
Here at minus a dollar eighty in a fight again,
(32:55):
you think I would think? Ricky Smoonan says, I just
want to take Bautista down to the ground and keep
taking him down and wear them down.
Speaker 5 (33:02):
That's right. And if you want to take advantage of Mario,
that's what you want to do his takedown defense. Even
though he's at a gym at the lab that really
specializes in grappling and wrestling, he can improve there a little.
Here's a fight that hasn't really moved much. Ricky Simone
(33:23):
opens minus one fifty five, minus one sixty. We've seen
just a little action come in on him. The one
thing that I will say is that Bautista and that
Jim with Kyler Phillips trained and beat Ricky Simone. I
leaned bout Pista.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Well, it's great to have you back.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
It's twenty twenty four, my friend. Always appreciate your time.
The information again, check out the Bout Business podcast. We're
going to DC next Verkun come on back gets first right.
(34:12):
We roll on the first twenty to twenty four edition,
the first rike Dave Ross here in Las Vegas, Nevada
at Fabulous Circus Sportsbook.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Always a pleasure to go to the Nation's capital.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Catch up with our got Redcoon. You can follow read
as I do on X at Fight Nomics. He is
the author of a book of the same name. Read
you know, We've gone to Boston with Dan Freeland. Bad weather,
They're Chicago, they got snow, Jordan Sherwood beautiful for loof
and a Carol in Arizona.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
What's it like in DC right now, my friend?
Speaker 8 (34:39):
And it looks like a hurricane outside, except it's too
cold to be a hurricane. So I'm just hoping the
power stays on. Stay with me. If it doesn't, I'll
call in. I'll call in my cell phone in the
old fashioned way.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
All right, Hope, We're going to keep you in, keep
the power on. Here for this edition of First Drake,
Let's get right to it here. The first bout here
of twenty twenty four in the main event is Michael
man Calia, obviously a big favorite that we've seen in
the rematch against Johnny Walker. And I'm always curious, you know,
talking to different handicappers out there, how much do the numbers,
if at all, play into what happened before the fight
(35:13):
was ruled a no contest. Do you do you take
that data into our account or throw the whole fight
out since it was officially not not a fight that
they're going to keep for the history books.
Speaker 8 (35:22):
I do take that data, but it was a brief fight,
so it's really not going to skew their historical numbers
all that much. And we're still stacking them up in
terms of kind of a five year look back or
you know, longer career of view. So yes, it's in there.
I don't see it skewing it. I was on Uncle
IAB the first time. I'm still going to be on
him again. I think his price has gone through the roof,
(35:42):
But yeah, I think it's deserving. I mean, he is
an insanely accurate power striker, and we have seen that
Johnny Walker has a weirdly vulnerable chin and he eats
a lot of punches and that's a huge liability. So
as long as it's standing, I see Uncle IAV having
the edge, And then factor in the fact that he
has almost a quarter of all his fight time is
(36:02):
controlling people on the ground. He's very dominant in his
wrestling and Walker, yes, he has submissions, but if you
know Ankalive is just pressing him to the mat, it's
not gonna be worth anything. So I do see Uncle
Ive as having the edge on both levels here.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Yeah, that's the fascinating part because I think if people
want to back the dog here in Johnny Walker, they say, well,
he's got the seven inch reach advantage, so obviously the
striking is going to favor Johnny.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
But the numbers that you have, that's that's not accurate.
Speaker 1 (36:32):
So could you see a scenario where Anklive and I
get again the KO prop you can shorten that price
tag here?
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Would you look to that?
Speaker 1 (36:39):
And that's maybe why the submission prop is plus a
fifty because if Ankolive either can get a straight KO
on the feet or ground and pound once it hits
the ground, is that a playable number for you at
two sixty five.
Speaker 8 (36:52):
I do like a striking finish here more than I
like a submission finish because I think if he gets
on the ground, Walker is pretty crappy with submissions. He
has to play a conservative. But your point about Walker
being the better striker because he has a range advantage,
it's true he has a range advantage, but on paper
he eats more punches.
Speaker 6 (37:08):
Than he gives out, and that is a liability.
Speaker 8 (37:11):
So if he is so good at being a long
range striker, why is he getting hit so much? And
why is his accurate accuracy so poor? So nclive is
going to be the more accurate guy. He likes to
use kicks, and that is one way to fight a
long range fighter. When you're giving up a reach advantage,
go for those head kicks, and those are dangerous.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
At light heavyweight. So I do like on Calive. I
think he is the more violent threat here.
Speaker 8 (37:34):
I just wonder if Walker might throw something crafty, something ridiculous.
I mean that is in his repertoire, our flying knees,
spinning stuff.
Speaker 6 (37:43):
Who knows.
Speaker 8 (37:44):
So there is a wildcard here at light heavyweight, lots
of finishing potential. You could be using that hedge of
an inside the distance in a parlay just in case
Walker comes out with something crazy.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
Yeah, that's the thing with a Johnny Walker fight. You
never know truly what to expec from Johnny Walker. He's
been more disciplined in recent times, out three fight win
streak before that no contest the first time round against
AKOLIAV in the comin event. Here we have a true rematch,
a fight that actually did play itself out the first
time round Mantiaz Nikolau did get that win against a
much younger mental Cop back in the day. Cop now
(38:17):
is a big favorite here in this rematch. What are
the data points showing you and how much are you
taking from that first fight?
Speaker 8 (38:25):
Yeah, Now, this is an example where we are using
that fight in the data. Both guys have looked pretty
good since that fight. It was a split decision if
you go look back. Clearly Nikolao had the takedowns and
he does have the more dominant grappling game in the
first round of that fight, and then maybe Kop had
the edge in striking. It was very close to call.
That's why it was a split decision at the end there.
(38:47):
But he probably got the edge of the striking.
Speaker 6 (38:48):
He was landing more.
Speaker 8 (38:50):
And so you look at this seventy seven takedown seventy
seven percent takedown.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
Defense for Cop that is way above average. So he
is good at.
Speaker 8 (38:58):
Defending takedowns and outside of the first round, he did
stuff the takedowns against Nicolau. So if he can get
that traction earlier, he forces this fight to be where
he wants it, which is on the feet, and he
did prove that first time. He's capable of outworking Nicolau.
And if you look at Nikolau, he's lost only three
times in his career, all three times by strikes. That
(39:19):
is the most common form of victory for Kape. So
I see lots of factors here lining up for Manel Cop.
Speaker 6 (39:25):
I like him.
Speaker 8 (39:26):
The prices maybe getting a little bit too high. I
think you had to grab him early to see a
lot of value. We'll see where we end up on Friday.
I'm thinking maybe a little bit of attraction. People are
going to remember, hey, he did lose that first fight,
and Nicolau's only loss is against Roydal, which is a
pretty you know, elite talent. So I think this should
be a little bit closer in the odds, But my
lean is towards Cop.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
If Cop can keep the fight standing.
Speaker 1 (39:49):
Do you see finishing potential because you mentioned Nikolau may
be susceptible to strikes, or do you think this is
a fight more than likely that ends up potentially hitting
the cards or over two and a half rounds.
Speaker 6 (39:59):
Yeah, you know, it's interesting. The flyweights don't really show
up abnormally low.
Speaker 8 (40:03):
In terms of the knockout rate as a division, as
we used to see a steeper trend in terms of
smaller fighters not landing the knockouts, It's not really true anymore.
These guys add up to thirteen combined knockdowns, and if
you look up and down the cart, it's hard to
find that many outside of the main event, and those
guys are light heavyweights. So there is plenty of knockdown
potential in these guys. And if they're fighting for fifteen
(40:24):
rounds back and forth and it stays on the feet, yeah,
I do see.
Speaker 6 (40:27):
Some finishing potential.
Speaker 8 (40:28):
Nikolau has been dropped three times, so he is susceptible,
and I think Cop may have more confidence in his
hands due to his finishes, So yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:36):
I'll see.
Speaker 8 (40:37):
I would like to see some plus money on a
striking finish for Cop, but yeah, that could be an angle.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
Plus a R seventy there krt kr dq on the
Cop side if he can get it done with those hands.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
I see a bad moon rising.
Speaker 1 (40:48):
I always hear CCR whenever Jim Miller makes that ring
walk here. It's going to do it against Gabriel Bernitez here,
and Miller is now flipped to the favorites. Role does
the data support forty years young Jim Miller being a
favorite in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8 (41:06):
I mean, he continues to set records. The guy's pretty timeless.
And it's funny because he's not even nearly the oldest
guy on this card because we also have Andre Rolovski
competing this weekend. But Jim Miller has proven to be
a dual threat guy. He is competent with his hands.
He always has awesome submissions in grappling, and I think
that could be the difference here because Benitez doesn't have
(41:26):
above average takedown defense, and once he's on the ground
he has mostly been dominated to the tune of nearly
eighty percent of control time for his opponents. That's pretty lopsided.
I think if Miller gets this down, he owns this fight.
It was interesting he was actually briefly the underdog and
now he's back in the favorite, So the market can't
really decide if they want to trust a forty year
(41:47):
old guy, But in this case, I think they found
an opponent that actually works to his favor So probably
I'm going to be leaning towards Jim Miller on fight
night even if I have to lay a little bit
of juice.
Speaker 6 (41:57):
Not too much.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
Though.
Speaker 1 (41:58):
You know, every time I see these fights before I
ever look at the numbers, and I know stylistically I
can hear reed Koon and the fights data points coming
out for a fighter, say like Ricky Simone, because I
know how much the numbers are. You guys value those
wrestlers against Mario Bautista here and Simone is a big
favorite Misty already, but maybe would be even bigger if
(42:20):
it didn't look so bad the last time out against
Songa Dong. Do the numbers support Simone as close to
a two dollars betting favorite.
Speaker 8 (42:28):
Yeah, it's not that Batista has bad grappling metrics. They're
actually pretty good. It's just that Simone is awesome with
his wrestling control time and actually, up and down the card,
he has the most total control time per fight of
any fighter. He's spending over a quarter of his time
in control on the mat. So that's a startling metric.
So if Batista, who has generally been successful when he
(42:50):
uses his grappling, not as much so on striking but
more in his grappling, that's going to get negated. And
if you're taking away his best strength, and then you're
pitting them against Ricky Simone, who's maybe going to have
the edge on the ground, or at least a neutral
situation on the ground, but he's definitely going to have
the edge with the hands because Ricky Simone hits hard,
(43:10):
and I think eventually that could make a difference. So
I think he gets to choose where this fight goes,
and you know, give me Ricky Simone. That's a fairly
affordable price for a guy with advantages on both levels.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Got about a minute ago, but i'd bever miss in
twenty twenty four if we didn't talk about fire that
was fighting in nineteen ninety six, the former heavyweight champion
of the world, Andre Rolobski back in there against Waldo
Cortez Acosta almost a five dollars betting under a look
six dollar betting underdog for a cost. If you want
to back to fave, how do you handicap a fight
(43:42):
like Orlovski in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6 (43:44):
I don't know, this is ridiculous.
Speaker 8 (43:47):
You really got to go back and cherry pick someone
who was north of nearly forty five years old to
step into the octagon. James Tony might be alone exception,
and maybe Randy Point came in that old, but this
is definitely rare air for a UFC fighter to enter
the octgon at that age. Statistically speaking, Yeah, Waldo has
(44:11):
much crisper striking and you got to think the speed
advantage for someone fourteen years younger.
Speaker 6 (44:16):
He's gonna find the chin at some point.
Speaker 8 (44:18):
Orlowski has been dropped ten times in UFC competition. That
is probably in the top five if I had to
think about who's been dropped that.
Speaker 6 (44:27):
Many times, dangerous, dangerous. Hopefully it's a retirement plight.
Speaker 2 (44:31):
Wow, I'm glad you're not retired.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
I'm glad I'm not because, yeah, we keep punching here
in twenty twenty four, so thanks to Britain has Rob Marino.
Speaker 2 (44:39):
We are back baby, cashing tickets.
Speaker 1 (44:40):
We'll see you next week here on first right
And for the first time in twenty twenty four. Welcome
to First Strike here on Visa. I'm your host Dave Ross.
For the next hour, gonna break.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
Down UFC Maine event.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Yes, we finally are back to fighting in twenty twenty
four of Macha Man Nclive against Johnny Walker in a
rematch of sorts for these guys after what happened three
months ago with a no contest, They're finally gonna finish
what they started three months ago in Abu dab right
here in Las Vegas.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Cannot wait for that fight to come on Saturday night.
Speaker 1 (00:44):
So gonna have Dan Rieland, Jordan Sherwood, Loop Nacaro and
Reed Koon for the next hour. We begin by shipping
up to Boston to say hello for the first time
in twenty twenty four to our guy Dan Rielin following
him on X at gumby Verewin. Dan, what did you
do during this historic break that the UFC took.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Well, the Sports Gambling Podcast Network's MMA Gambling Podcast takes
no break. So we broke down Samurai Fight House from
Buenos Aires, Argentina. We broke down Octagon MMA out in Prague.
You know, we broke down regional MMA all over the world,
because guess what, MMA doesn't stop what the USC does,
so neither do we.
Speaker 2 (01:22):
Beautiful love it. That's the way you buy your time here.
Speaker 1 (01:25):
When we are back to the big boys here, certainly
in the light heavyweight division, when we get to Akalive
against Johnny Walker, and again I mentioned it off the top,
what happened three months ago Nabu Dhabi look like a
fight that Uncliath had control of. Then an illegal knee,
some confusion, some language barriers as to whether or not
Johnny Walker could go on or not, they stopped the fight.
You know, I think what gets lost in translation a
(01:47):
little bit is the fact that it did look like
unc Calive was dominating that fight. He's now a huge favorite,
almost a five dollar betting favorite to dominate again. Do
you think the pause is good for Johnny Walker to
see kind of what he did wrong? Or like we've
said before, Dan, you never know what to expect of
what Johnny Walker's thinking in a Johnny Walker fight.
Speaker 3 (02:06):
Yeah, I don't think there's any idea what Johnny Walker's
thinking because they asked him what country he was in,
and he was like, I wouldn't have known that if
I hadn't gotten it in the hand. So, you know,
Johnny Walker is a tough guy to handicap all the
time anyway. But I will say this, you know, like
everybody has that narrative that Megan at ank Alive was
sort of the dominant fighter in that fight, and like
clearly looked like he was gonna win that, you know,
(02:26):
until he hit that body shot about two and a
half minutes in. I actually think Johnny Walker was getting
the better of the striking and it buckled Johnny Walker
a little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
He throws the flying.
Speaker 3 (02:34):
Knee, winds up getting taken down, and yeah, it didn't
work out for him once it hit the mat.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
It looked pretty bad there.
Speaker 3 (02:39):
But he seemed to be doing good digging for underhooks
and keeping Anklive at range with strikes before that moment
before he got kind of stunned.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
And I actually.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Think that Johnny Walker holds a much better chance than
the odds sit here. I don't know necessarily that I like,
you know, I'm rushing out to grab myself a Johnny
Walker ticket plus three sixty, But I think the way
that this line has risen on Magnet Ankoliath is just
put it in an unplayable range for me, negative four
to seventy. I don't want any part of that. I
don't want any part of that in a you know,
(03:10):
a parlay. I don't want any part of that in
straight money line. And if you look at all of
the different props, you know, like, yeah, he probably gets
it done with the TKO. If he does, we saw
him hurt Johnny Walker to the body, and even that
line doesn't look interesting in any way, shape or for him.
So for me, it's kind of played itself into a
dogg or pass spot.
Speaker 5 (03:29):
You know.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
You look at the total rounds here and again five
round even though it's not a title fight obviously main
event where it could potentially go on all five. It's
juiced here not that much at seven and a half
minutes to over is just a dollar forty again getting
in the head of Johnny Walker to pace himself to
not throw something wild, so a takedown can occur for
(03:50):
Rounc alive because.
Speaker 2 (03:51):
He's got a seven inch reach advantage here. If he
can keep the fight standing and keep it there, he'd
have some built in advantages. Is there a lean one
way or the other? I think this gets done quickly
inside of five minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:02):
Definitely did the over.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
I mean, I think the first fight would have gone
over seven and a half minutes had it not been
an illegal strike, right Like, if you let Johnny get
up in that spot, I think he survives him minute
twenty left. And I don't think there's any doubt with
the way that he was establishing range and staying away
from the big shots to Ank Live while he over
exerted himself, I don't think there's any doubt that Johnny
Walker stays alive for another two and a half minutes there,
or you know, for that it mattered Magmatical Lives stays
(04:26):
a live for two and a half minutes.
Speaker 4 (04:28):
Because this Johnny Walker at Straight.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Blast Gym so far has been infinitely more patient than
the Johnny Walker that we were used to seeing when
he was up and coming, when he was doing lots
of spinning stuff getting into lots of trouble that way.
And I mean like the only spinning thing that he
threw against Anklive kind of got him into trouble. I
expect him to be even more patient the second time.
Speaker 2 (04:46):
I tend to agree with you. To me, Mileen would
be towards that over as well.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Again not as big a price to pay there, just
a dollar forty to go over seven and a half minutes, Dan,
I always love to talk undercards with you and find
some value out there and.
Speaker 2 (04:57):
Certainly fighters that you like.
Speaker 1 (04:59):
One of them early on here in the bantamley division
Marcus McGee back in there over a two dollars betting
favorite here. Is the price too steep for you against
as a guest on blonas here? Or do you think
that McGee should be this rifle favorite here at over
two dollars I'm seeing right now? What about I got
(05:20):
pau mcglass. Two fifty eight is what I'm seeing right
here from Marcus McGee.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah, I think two fifty eight is still undervaluing him. Man,
this dude throws absolute hammers when he boxes. I love
how composed he is. Clearly, you know, having John Crouch
in his corner has been really great for him. He's
developed well. He's also one of those fighters that spend
enough time in the regional scene where he clearly has
worked out some of the kinks in his fight game
(05:43):
before he's gotten to the UFC. So we're looking at
a guy who's not a prospect, but a fully formed
fighter at this point, and Bolanos is a guy who's
been tagged a whole bunch of times in his career,
and that's a problem against the guy who hits as
hard as Marcus McGee now negative two fifty. You know,
I'm never one of the ones who's going to tell
you to go out there and empty the bank account
on somebody who's you know, that big of a favorite
(06:04):
and so to speak. But I do think when the
Koprop shows up here, and I've seen them, you know,
dabbling around to different places, I think you're going to
see a great number on the Koprop here, you know,
Like I think it's an obvious outcome for me that
Marcus McGee is going to knock out Gaston Belongos. I
think he's going to do it early. You could probably
find round props here and stuff like that on him too.
But yeah, Marcus McGee couldn't be higher on the gay.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
Yeah, I love that.
Speaker 1 (06:27):
Again, that's a great way to identify and turn those
prices around there instead of paying a lot of money
here from Gee either will first round if it think
it's going to be early, and get some plus money there,
or by KOTK or two to one right now you
can get on the Ko prop. So how about that
set at Lance two fifty can get plus two dollars
there on McGee at a really.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Nice price tag.
Speaker 1 (06:47):
You know, every time, I can't believe in twenty twenty
four now that we're talking about a fighter as Britain
has O steam producer likes to point out that the
pitbull Andre Lowski was fighting professionally in nineteen ninety six. Dan,
you and I are both big Cowboy fans Dallas Cowboy's
won a super Bowl in nineteen ninety five. Orlovsky's getting
ready to get into an octagon the next year has
(07:08):
been that long, and here we are now, Orlobski, you
can understand why against Waldo Costio Cortez is a big
dog against the Costa here plus four fifty five is
what I'm seeing for Orlovsky. Can the pitbull turn back
the hands of time against a guy like Waldough?
Speaker 5 (07:25):
I think so.
Speaker 4 (07:26):
And here's the thing.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I'm first of all big on Verarolovski fan grew up
watching him, which is an insane sentence to be saying
about a guy still fighting in twenty twenty four. But
two things that I really like about his game is,
first of all, he is re established basically a point
fighting system since he's turned you into his late thirties,
early forty. He's working with Matt Brown. He's hitting leg kicks,
(07:48):
he's hitting jabs, he's staying out of the range of
big fighters. And it's worked sometimes against some of the
guys who you know, maybe are a little bit more sloppy,
the Carlos Felipees of the world, and it's not worked
against Tom Maspital. So when you're looking for where does
Waldo Costa or Costa Costa a Cortes following this range,
(08:09):
I don't trust him. What I've seen from him, both
when he was on Contender series, when he was you know,
on the regional scene, what he's done so far in
the UFC. He's a guy who doesn't have a great
gas tank in the first place. He's a guy who,
when he's pushing forward against the guy like Andrea Arolovski,
I think is going to over exert himself and he
for once is not going to be fighting a heavyweight
who will be tempted to turn around a knockout blow. Right,
(08:31):
Andrea Arolowski does the smart thing. He does the simple thing,
which has hit him with a jab and get the
hell out of there. And I think at plus four
fifty five, which is an insane return on this guy,
even if you just want to fade WCA here, I
think that's the right move.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
You know, by decision for Alovsky is six to one,
but again, you're not getting that much more than.
Speaker 2 (08:52):
The plus four to fifty five.
Speaker 1 (08:53):
Would you just play the four to fifty five in
case Orlovski actually hurt Waldough and went in for the finish.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
I don't think there's any way he tries to, is
the thing. And I don't even mean that is disparaging
to Andrea Irolowski. I think if Waldo Cortez a Costa
absolutely tired himself out to the point where he could
not punch anymore Homer Simpson style here, I don't think
Andrea Rolofski would go over and nudge him over. I
think he would just stay at range.
Speaker 1 (09:18):
Yeah, just winning on points if that's what it takes
for the former champion.
Speaker 2 (09:22):
Here.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Let's get to the main card, and Ricky Simone's back
in there against Mario Bautista. Simone probably didn't end twenty
twenty three the way he wanted to now against Bautista.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
My star eighty here is we're.
Speaker 1 (09:34):
Seeing here Bautista the comeback there is plus a doar fifty.
How do you measure out these two bandam wites?
Speaker 3 (09:40):
You know, I think this line is actually a little
bit too low on Ricky Simone. And the reason basically is,
you know, I bet against Mario Batista last time he fought,
when he fought Demon Black Chear, and you know, it
was kind of maybe against my better judgment because Demon
Black Shair was coming off of like what fourteen fourteen
days from his last fight seven days notice. But the
thing I know about Mario Batista is while he is
(10:02):
an exceptional offensive wrestler, he does have some holes in
his defensive wrestling. He's given up takedowns two guys like
Deman Black Cheer, and some people even argue Black Sheer
won that fight because of his offensive grappling right against
a guy like Ricky Simon who scores take down. I mean,
he scored two on Sonya Dong, which, like, in retrospect
watching what Sonya Dong did to Chris Gutierrez, it's insane
(10:22):
to think that he was the one establishing the wrestling
against Sonya don man. I think he's gonna have an
easy day in the wrestling department with Mario Batista, and
at the end of the day, this negative one to eight,
he's gonna look silly.
Speaker 1 (10:33):
Yeah, that song youa don Loss doesn't look as bad
as it did on fight night on that in that's
showing there in five rounds, getting stopped in that fifth
and final very quickly.
Speaker 2 (10:40):
About a minute ago here Jim Miller twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
He's still back out there, Gabriel Benitez, What do you
make of bad moon rising here?
Speaker 2 (10:47):
Can he get it done again in the old vet?
Speaker 6 (10:50):
I think so?
Speaker 3 (10:50):
And it was crazy to me that he opened up
as an underdog. He's now moved his way into being
a you know, decent sized favorite, right and it does
the line keep seeming to go up, So jump on
that as quickly as you can. But the bottom line
for me is that Gabriel Benitez is a guy who
likes to get into a firefight and is fighting a
guy who's shown I can't believe we're saying about this
about Jim Miller really heavy hands lately, Like this is
(11:11):
a guy who now is a power puncher and has
been knocking people out much younger than him. I think
Jim Miller's got the ability to outgrapple him. I think
if it does get turned into a firefight, Jim Miller's
got the chin to take it.
Speaker 4 (11:22):
I like Miller by ko.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Wow, forty years young, still kicking Dan. Great to see
it in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
Man, appreciate it as always, and we'll catch up again
soon when we come back.
Speaker 1 (11:34):
We're shipping up to Chicago, to the second City to
catch up with Jordan Sheran would come all back.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
It's first strike here on Lisa.
Speaker 1 (12:07):
If you're looking for a betting edge throughout the NFL
Playoffs and the Super Bowl, the.
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Vson experts have got you covered. Become a vcent Pros
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we go to the second city, the great City of Chicago,
to catch up with our guy, Jordan Gerl, which you
can follow him on X as I do at Wood
on ESPN one thousand. Jordan, is it snowing in Chicago?
(12:48):
You know I only lived there for eight years. I
don't recall snow.
Speaker 4 (12:51):
Yeah, we're getting dumped on for the first time pretty
heavily this winter. About six inches expected. But look, I
knew it was gonna happen at some point.
Speaker 2 (13:02):
You guys had a mild mile winter so far.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
So mild winter so far. It's just unfortunate for me
that it's happening now while the kids are back at school,
and now while they were on break where we could
go sledding and nice skating and do all that fun
stuff when it's snowing, So I might be shoveling tonight, Dave,
if you remember that.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Oh I'm trying not to laugh. No, it's it's it's
lovely the summertime. Those two weeks of summer are fantastic. Okay,
let's let's get to this card, Jordan, because the UFC
is in fact back and in this main event, you
look at Akalave against Johnny Walker. Here you go back
to what happened three months ago in Abu Dhabi and
(13:40):
again kind of look like Anklia walk outd his moments
early illegal strike. This fight is then a no contest officially.
How do you see the quote unquote rematch breaking down?
And how much do you take away from what you
saw before it was stopped the first time?
Speaker 4 (13:55):
I'm gonna take away a lot, I am. I think
we saw both fights were extremely tentative. Both guys were
kind of respectful of each other's strengths during the first
couple of minutes of that fight. Then we saw, you know,
some interaction, and then Kali gets the fight to the ground.
I think he knows that now, he knows that likely
(14:17):
he can get this fight to the ground whenever he
wants to. And I yes, Walker was on his way
up to his feet when those illegal strikes were thrown.
But I think on Cliff understands now. Look, he knows
where the advantage is. The odds are certainly indicated we're
expecting a domination for Maga on calliab so I don't
(14:37):
really believe these guys are gonna waste each other's time
now that we're into the the main event. Now, albeit
Johnny Walker talked about, you know his two wage under
SPG Ireland. Cardio's good, he can go hard for five rounds.
I just don't think he's going to have that luxury.
I think Maga leg and Cliab knows he's got the
advantage on the feet. He knows he can get this
(14:59):
fight to the ground, and he wants he's gonna not
waste any time whatsoever, get this fight to the ground
and get Johnny Walker out of there as quickly as
he probably envisioned he was going to be able to
do the first time that they met.
Speaker 2 (15:10):
So would you look to the under a round and
a half?
Speaker 1 (15:13):
Would you can get plus money on here I've seen
about plus a doar ten.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Here early in the week.
Speaker 1 (15:18):
Or would you look at an Uncle eliav Via subs
plus two eighty fifty other it doesn't seem likely. There's
the ko prop you could cut that navit minus two
sixty five. Would you look that way if you like
the uncle I have said aside, or say, hey, Johnny
Walker could still hurt him with hands. So there's a
couple of ways to get it done inside of seven
and a half minutes.
Speaker 4 (15:39):
Yeah, I think I'm playing it safe and just understanding
Walker and just how you look how dangerous he is,
and we'll talk about it. I mean, he's a different
fighter with the new coaching staff, and I think he's
a more cerebral fighter with the coaching staff. I mean
the way that he put away Paul Craig is crazy
on one leg. So he's got that versatility in his game.
(15:59):
I just think, look, we're talking about Maga leg and
Clive that like great probably should be the light heavyweight
champion of the world. But he's had a you know,
an absolute ag of a fight when he fought Yaan Bolohovich.
So here we go. Let's get him in the title
mix with the dominating win over guy that's surging in
Johnny Walker.
Speaker 2 (16:17):
Did you say intelligence and Johnny Walker in the same sentence,
because that normally I did.
Speaker 4 (16:23):
Didn't I maybe it's a new thing for twenty twenty four.
We're going opoh. But look, I mean he has been
fighting a lot smarter. Yeah, you do have to give
him credit. But outside of the cage, if you fail
him on Instagram and social he's a great follow. He
makes some pretty interesting choices with his livelihood.
Speaker 1 (16:39):
Yeah, he's a very interesting guy. But you're right, I
mean it's all jokes aside. He really has been more
cerebral inside the octagon that we've seen in years past.
Speaker 2 (16:47):
That'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Speaker 1 (16:49):
But you're right, aglive has a decided advantage on the ground.
Speaker 2 (16:53):
I wonder if he'll implement that early and often.
Speaker 1 (16:55):
To Jordan's point, to get plus money here at under
seven and a half minutes, I want to get to
a that I did not think we'd still be talking
about in twenty twenty four, and certainly not as a
small fave, and that's Jim Miller.
Speaker 2 (17:06):
I mean, he just he won't retire certain guys.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
And by the way, why would he at forty when
he's still fighting the way he is against Gabriel, against
Ramiro Benitez. Rather, here, Gabriel is a small dog here
plus a dollar twenty. I'm the Benita size. Miller is
right now minus dollar eighteen. We've seen the updated odds here.
What do you make of old man Jim now at forty?
Speaker 4 (17:28):
Well, look, those the odds are updated, I mean when
the fight was released and up until I think Monday
or even Sunday or Monday. He was the underdog was
Jim Miller, so money clearly coming in on him. You
could also probably handicap it like minus eighteen hundred. No
matter the result of this fight, he will be fighting
at UFC three hundred. I'm confident in that the Dana
White's gonna find a way to get him on that
(17:50):
card because he was on one hundred, he was on
two hundred. It makes sense for him on b a thread.
But look, he's still dangerous, He's still got power. We
saw that in a recent first round fin that he had.
He's a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, and in a
guy against Benita is a guy that's bit around the block,
a veteran that's been in there with some of the best.
Is a perfect stylistic matchup for him because of his aggression,
(18:13):
because of the fact that he also wants to look
to get in a phone move and possibly take this
fight to the ground. So look, Benita is certainly from
America Kickboxing Academy, good coaching staff there. Wins and loss
is kind of alternating for him. He's got power, but
I don't think Miller is gonna be threatened anywhere. I'll
(18:33):
say this, I think we're getting an under. But I'm
gonna look at at two and a half just playing
it safe, So probably a would have, you know, juice
to that as those odds reflect there under at one
and a half. But I think we're seeing a finish
in this fight. I think Jim Miller that's the type
of fighter that he's become, and he's a guy that
can get stoppages a variety of different ways. Benita is
(18:55):
the same. Benita's also really puts himself in some dangerous
position and situations. That's not something you do against a
veteran as savvy as Jim Miller. So I'm side with Miller.
How could you not love the guy. I'll take him
at a dollar eighteen, would have loved him at plus money.
But I think I think we're getting a finish in
this fight. I think one guy is getting put to
(19:16):
sleep or getting.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Knocked out Beninaz it's not likely twelve to one prop
for the sub Now the Kotko prop you can get
over two dollars there for the Benita side.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Would you go win by finish for Jim at.
Speaker 1 (19:26):
Plus a dollar fifty versus the Kotkr sub price, because
for Jim, both those things could be in play.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
Yeah, I think he's an equal opportunitist. I think probably
more likely he stuns Benitez, gets him to the ground
and submits him. But as we've seen, Miller's power still
carries with him. That's like literally the last thing to
go in MMA. So yeah, let's just do inside the distance.
Put a little bit more value on Jim Miller to
win the.
Speaker 1 (19:49):
Fight, all right, plus a dollar fifty there for Miller
to get it done inside the distance. Bruni Ferira is
a small favorite over Phil Hawes. See I'm seeing about
dow thirty today, basically pus ten on the Hawes side.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
How do you handicap this fight?
Speaker 4 (20:03):
Yeah? Look, I mean look, obviously he had a humbling
experience his last time out, losing that. Oh coming in
as an unefeated fighter and a big favorite, but now
he's getting served. The guy that's gonna just stylistically a
matchup that's perfect for him, Ferrera, who's known as the Hope,
that's his body type, and he just goes Holks smash
in there, and look, Hawes is kind of gonna give
him that fight. He's gonna give him a fight that's standing,
(20:25):
give him a guy that's susceptible to the knockout. We've
seen Hawes, you know, lights go out of intwo it
of his last three losses that come via Ko. So
I think we all, you know, every single fighter needs
to you know, eventually they're gonna lose, They're going to
learn from that experience. And I think Ferra comes out, uh,
you know, as respective of a fighter it as he is,
and gets the win and likely gets the knockout as well.
(20:48):
So I think you could add a little bit more
for him inside the distance in him via Ko Hawes's chin,
just as you can't trust it anymore.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
Yeah, you know, it feels like a pretty good price
act there on Bruno coming off that law. This would
be way inflated if he didn't have that, if he
still had.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
That O in his record. So probably pretty good value
right there.
Speaker 1 (21:07):
And again kotk R TQ is plus a dollar twenty five.
I want to go to an early fight that you like,
and that's Tom Nolan against Nicholas Mada here and now
no one right now over a three dollar betting favorite.
But I think you have a different way that you
do like to play this to shorten that price tag.
Speaker 4 (21:21):
Yeah, look, if we don't know much about Noan, obviously
he's coming making his UFC debut, but the film on
him on the regional scene is that he does have power.
And what we do know about Mada is that he's
a guy that's susceptible to the knockout or getting a knockout.
But I think in his last three fights, two of
them have he's been knocked out. He's an extremely short
stout fighter for the weight class. I think he's five
(21:44):
nine to five to ten. He's going in there against
a guy that's six foot three, so it's going to
have the reach advantage, going to have the size advantage,
and just look, just hasn't corrected the defense. He hasn't
corrected the fact that he leaves his chin susceptible, whether
it be the hands or an elbow in the case
of his most recent defeat getting knocked out. So I
think No. One, certainly maybe a little bit risky because
(22:07):
he's a new guy in the UFC. So add a
little bit more value to it and do it via
Ko to add a little bit to the newcomer to
the UFC.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
Only about twenty seconds ago, Jordan, how's Chicago after losing
again to the Packers.
Speaker 2 (22:18):
What are they doing at quarterback?
Speaker 4 (22:20):
Jesus, I will at your guest is as good as mine.
I think if you're a gun in my head. They're
keeping everybody rinsing and repeating and bringing everybody back. And
that sucks.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
They're keeping everybody, so says Jordane Drewood. Appreciate it. Give
him a follow.
Speaker 1 (22:34):
What on esbo one thousand, the host of the unnamed
MMA pod. When we come back, We're going to Arizona
Kitchen with our got a looping and grow next to here.
Speaker 7 (22:41):
I'm fust right.
Speaker 1 (23:10):
Before you make your next mat, be sure to visit
visa dot com check the current betting splits data. Want
to know the money and bets some moving for every
single NFL or Bowl game. Well, those are all done,
but the betting splits page is updated with draftingsides every
five minutes. You can see the changes in all the action,
find out where the public is betting based in the
number tickets where the money doesn't match the public opinion.
We're always improving our betting splits and recently added soccer
(23:31):
betting splits from around the world. Betting splits another way.
Vs is here to make you a smarter vetter year round.
Check out today's betting splits for every game at vison
dot com slash splits. We now catch up with our
guy Lufinacaro. You can follow him on x as I
do at Gamblo. Coming to us from the great state
of Arizona, lou for the first time.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Happy New Year. We're back here.
Speaker 1 (23:55):
In twenty twenty four. It's been a minute. How did
you take some time away? The UFC took almost a
month off.
Speaker 5 (24:02):
Well, first of all, thanks for having me. Happy New
Year to everyone. The rest is always great, specifically Dave,
there's a seven hundred member database that has to be
updated and you know, cleaned up, and so the old
fighters go off, the new fighters go on. I also
(24:24):
am a football NFL only handicapper, and so it was
really nice to be able to focus solely on that
for a few weeks and get a little break from
the UFC. But boy, the UFC is our bread and butter.
We're the only sport that goes January one to December thirty. First,
(24:46):
we're not seasonal. I love the setup. I love what
the UFC does for us. By way, of offering US
forty to forty four cards per year, and I'm ready
to rock and roll.
Speaker 1 (24:58):
Could have said it better myself, will very well put here,
very very appreciative of what the UFC does for people
like you and me. Let's get to it here, because
about business podcast. You get that each and every week.
And I know the Sneak Teap is already out, lou
What do you have out there for everybody that gives
that great podcast to listen?
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Sneak Teap just takes a seven minute look at opening
lines for each week's fight card. At this point in time,
and I mentioned this on the pod, we're in the
throes of NFL playoffs, so there are no pay per
views until next week because they really know their place
(25:34):
and so we get overshadowed a bit by the NFL.
But that changes come February. You'll see much more dynamic
and volatile market movement once we get to February. This
card showed just a couple of favorite switches and modest changes.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Obviously, with the main event here Malcolm Man An Calive
against Johnny Walker, you can understand why an Calive is
a big favorite. Again, almost a five hour betting favored
against the wild Brazilian who's not as wild I guess
these days inside the octagon, but Lou, I know we're
not in the business of land big price tags like this.
When you look at the main event, will it be
different from the first time around, which was a new
(26:15):
contest after you know, three months ago in Abu Dhabi
where looked like Akalav was starting to take control until
that Ilia strike caused the postponement of the rest of
that matchup.
Speaker 2 (26:25):
How do you view this quote unquote rematch boy.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
That's I'm glad you bring me right to that. That
was very very odd outcome and overall evolution in that fight.
On the one hand, it's clear that Uncle I have
made a mistake and hit Walker grounded. But after that,
the oddity was to me that it looked like Walker
(26:53):
didn't want any part of the fight anymore until they
called it off and then he put on a show.
And so I'm maybe, and I'd love people to correct
me if I'm wrong. I thought he didn't want anymore.
And quite honestly, the way this fight sets up is
you got this flamboyant striker and Johnny Walker that I
(27:15):
think needs to get back to some flamboyance. Clearly, if
you just take a Brazilian off the street and a
Russian off the street, they hate each other. Now you
take a Brazilian fighter and a Russian fighter, you add
a little stringency to that formula. These guys want to
kill each other. Walker by knocking ank Eliah's head into
(27:35):
the fourth row, and Uncliah by being able to take
Walker down. Now, the difference in this fight is we've
got five rounds instead of three. I think you see
Uncliath take a measured approach, systematically tate, let Johnny get
some of his juice out of him, but ground him
and then sub him out. I think Uncliah is in
(27:58):
a very good position provided he doesn't get it, provided
he doesn't try and take care of his business too
quickly and rush in to a knee, to a spinning
elbow or something that Johnny can catch him with. Now,
Walker is a brown belt and BJJ, but we don't
(28:18):
see him use it that much. His takedown defense is substandard,
and it's clear the path that each man wants to take.
I believe, and I'm cheating now by looking to see
if there's a total on this far.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
Yet one and a half. Yeah, we got seven and
a half minute there for you, Lou.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
And again it's slightly juiced to the over at minus
doar forty the under plus a dollar ten if you
think it gets done inside of seven and a half.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
But I guess you're right. I mean Walker wants to
look at that.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
If you're on the Walker side, that ko prop at
six to one, would you look at the at the
subside for alcohol, I have at plus a fifty. You
think it's ground and pound if he gets him down
to the ground.
Speaker 5 (28:53):
Yeah, these are these are great questions, and usually those
that watch our fine show know that I I'm a
little tepid when it comes to taking risk, and so
I leaned to the itd that way I get both
inside the distance. And I do believe that's how Magamed
Uncle Elijah will finish this fight. I believe he'll accomplish
(29:15):
a victory inside the distance.
Speaker 1 (29:16):
Yeah, minus four dollars fronk alive to get it done
inside of five rounds for that prop, let's get to
a rematch in the comin event mental cape, Yeah is
a cop brother is minus two sixty five. I guess
with thea Nikolau now plus two fifteen and plus two tens.
It would have been of money changing there. Mano is
an interesting fighter. We saw him go off recently at
(29:38):
a press conference and there's a when you look at him,
he feels like he's got championship style potentially in the
flyweight division. What do you make of this rematch here?
And again, Cop right now is minus two fifty eight.
I'm seeing here on the big board.
Speaker 5 (29:53):
Well, we have Nicolao on a bounce. Here's a guy
that won four good fights before he ran into one
against to Brandon Roy Vallen, and that can happen to anyone.
I think compelling to this fight, Dave, is that they
fought previous and Cop was just a young, up and
coming talent. He wasn't near as developed or capable or
(30:16):
athletic and powerful as he's grown into at this day.
And in that fight, Nicolau won a close split decision,
and at the time watching the fight, I thought Cop
might have won it, be that as it may a
different day, different time, and I think CoP's just too athletic,
(30:37):
too fast, too powerful. The Brazilian Nicolau was going to
have to try and engage somehow, and that's where he
is going to find himself in some risk. This fight
opened some time ago. Cop was only minus one eighty.
I tried like heck to get him tied into a
parlay one way or another. I couldn't make the other
(30:58):
side work, and so I've lost good sixty cents in
value and it's going to have to be maybe an
inside the distance now, which I feel pretty confident for
Cop as well.
Speaker 1 (31:09):
Plus money on that one, Lou, you can get plus
an hour fifty for Cop inside the distance there, So
again instead of laying the bigger number now as it
has ballooned a.
Speaker 2 (31:17):
Little bit, I think it's really good advice there.
Speaker 1 (31:19):
If you're on the mental side here, you can get
him at plus an hour fifty to get this done
inside of three rounds in the comin event.
Speaker 2 (31:26):
Another fight that I don't think many.
Speaker 1 (31:29):
People will hit the cards is Gabriel Benitez against Jim Miller.
The ageless Jim Miller, now forty years young, doesn't look
like he's lost a whole lot off his fastball of anything.
Lou looks like he's picking up some power maybe even
in his advancing age. He has flipped to a smaller
favors about minus a dollar eighteen here against Benitez. Do
(31:49):
you trust old man Jim to get it done once again?
Speaker 5 (31:54):
Benitez opens one fifty five in this fight the way
I handicap, I think that is close to correct. So
I disagree with Miller going to the favorite. And I'm
not taking anything away from Jim Miller, but he's fighting
a guy that's five years younger, hasn't really had problems
being subbed. He's a He goes out there and wants
(32:16):
to throw down, and when he gets in trouble, it's
by the ko because other guys tee off on him,
and so I don't see that threat from Miller. I
consider Benitas a live dog.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
I want to get to another fight because again, sometimes
we get the recency bias in the betting market.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
We saw Ricky smoone.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
It did not look good against Songa Dong in a
fight he was favored to win at a main event.
And now I don't know that that loss to Songa
Dong looks as bad as it did maybe the first
time we all watched it happen right. And now he
is a favorite against Mario Bautista, but maybe not as
big a favorite because he's bouncing back or coming back
off of that loss. Is there any value here in Simone?
Here at minus a dollar eighty in a fight again,
(32:55):
you think I would think? Ricky Smoonan says, I just
want to take Bautista down to the ground and keep
taking him down and wear them down.
Speaker 5 (33:02):
That's right. And if you want to take advantage of Mario,
that's what you want to do his takedown defense. Even
though he's at a gym at the lab that really
specializes in grappling and wrestling, he can improve there a little.
Here's a fight that hasn't really moved much. Ricky Simone
(33:23):
opens minus one fifty five, minus one sixty. We've seen
just a little action come in on him. The one
thing that I will say is that Bautista and that
Jim with Kyler Phillips trained and beat Ricky Simone. I
leaned bout Pista.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
Well, it's great to have you back.
Speaker 1 (33:38):
It's twenty twenty four, my friend. Always appreciate your time.
The information again, check out the Bout Business podcast. We're
going to DC next Verkun come on back gets first right.
(34:12):
We roll on the first twenty to twenty four edition,
the first rike Dave Ross here in Las Vegas, Nevada
at Fabulous Circus Sportsbook.
Speaker 2 (34:19):
Always a pleasure to go to the Nation's capital.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Catch up with our got Redcoon. You can follow read
as I do on X at Fight Nomics. He is
the author of a book of the same name. Read
you know, We've gone to Boston with Dan Freeland. Bad weather,
They're Chicago, they got snow, Jordan Sherwood beautiful for loof
and a Carol in Arizona.
Speaker 2 (34:36):
What's it like in DC right now, my friend?
Speaker 8 (34:39):
And it looks like a hurricane outside, except it's too
cold to be a hurricane. So I'm just hoping the
power stays on. Stay with me. If it doesn't, I'll
call in. I'll call in my cell phone in the
old fashioned way.
Speaker 1 (34:49):
All right, Hope, We're going to keep you in, keep
the power on. Here for this edition of First Drake,
Let's get right to it here. The first bout here
of twenty twenty four in the main event is Michael
man Calia, obviously a big favorite that we've seen in
the rematch against Johnny Walker. And I'm always curious, you know,
talking to different handicappers out there, how much do the numbers,
if at all, play into what happened before the fight
(35:13):
was ruled a no contest. Do you do you take
that data into our account or throw the whole fight
out since it was officially not not a fight that
they're going to keep for the history books.
Speaker 8 (35:22):
I do take that data, but it was a brief fight,
so it's really not going to skew their historical numbers
all that much. And we're still stacking them up in
terms of kind of a five year look back or
you know, longer career of view. So yes, it's in there.
I don't see it skewing it. I was on Uncle
IAB the first time. I'm still going to be on
him again. I think his price has gone through the roof,
(35:42):
But yeah, I think it's deserving. I mean, he is
an insanely accurate power striker, and we have seen that
Johnny Walker has a weirdly vulnerable chin and he eats
a lot of punches and that's a huge liability. So
as long as it's standing, I see Uncle IAV having
the edge, And then factor in the fact that he
has almost a quarter of all his fight time is
(36:02):
controlling people on the ground. He's very dominant in his
wrestling and Walker, yes, he has submissions, but if you
know Ankalive is just pressing him to the mat, it's
not gonna be worth anything. So I do see Uncle
Ive as having the edge on both levels here.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
Yeah, that's the fascinating part because I think if people
want to back the dog here in Johnny Walker, they say, well,
he's got the seven inch reach advantage, so obviously the
striking is going to favor Johnny.
Speaker 2 (36:28):
But the numbers that you have, that's that's not accurate.
Speaker 1 (36:32):
So could you see a scenario where Anklive and I
get again the KO prop you can shorten that price
tag here?
Speaker 2 (36:38):
Would you look to that?
Speaker 1 (36:39):
And that's maybe why the submission prop is plus a
fifty because if Ankolive either can get a straight KO
on the feet or ground and pound once it hits
the ground, is that a playable number for you at
two sixty five.
Speaker 8 (36:52):
I do like a striking finish here more than I
like a submission finish because I think if he gets
on the ground, Walker is pretty crappy with submissions. He
has to play a conservative. But your point about Walker
being the better striker because he has a range advantage,
it's true he has a range advantage, but on paper
he eats more punches.
Speaker 6 (37:08):
Than he gives out, and that is a liability.
Speaker 8 (37:11):
So if he is so good at being a long
range striker, why is he getting hit so much? And
why is his accurate accuracy so poor? So nclive is
going to be the more accurate guy. He likes to
use kicks, and that is one way to fight a
long range fighter. When you're giving up a reach advantage,
go for those head kicks, and those are dangerous.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
At light heavyweight. So I do like on Calive. I
think he is the more violent threat here.
Speaker 8 (37:34):
I just wonder if Walker might throw something crafty, something ridiculous.
I mean that is in his repertoire, our flying knees,
spinning stuff.
Speaker 6 (37:43):
Who knows.
Speaker 8 (37:44):
So there is a wildcard here at light heavyweight, lots
of finishing potential. You could be using that hedge of
an inside the distance in a parlay just in case
Walker comes out with something crazy.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
Yeah, that's the thing with a Johnny Walker fight. You
never know truly what to expec from Johnny Walker. He's
been more disciplined in recent times, out three fight win
streak before that no contest the first time round against
AKOLIAV in the comin event. Here we have a true rematch,
a fight that actually did play itself out the first
time round Mantiaz Nikolau did get that win against a
much younger mental Cop back in the day. Cop now
(38:17):
is a big favorite here in this rematch. What are
the data points showing you and how much are you
taking from that first fight?
Speaker 8 (38:25):
Yeah, Now, this is an example where we are using
that fight in the data. Both guys have looked pretty
good since that fight. It was a split decision if
you go look back. Clearly Nikolao had the takedowns and
he does have the more dominant grappling game in the
first round of that fight, and then maybe Kop had
the edge in striking. It was very close to call.
That's why it was a split decision at the end there.
(38:47):
But he probably got the edge of the striking.
Speaker 6 (38:48):
He was landing more.
Speaker 8 (38:50):
And so you look at this seventy seven takedown seventy
seven percent takedown.
Speaker 6 (38:55):
Defense for Cop that is way above average. So he
is good at.
Speaker 8 (38:58):
Defending takedowns and outside of the first round, he did
stuff the takedowns against Nicolau. So if he can get
that traction earlier, he forces this fight to be where
he wants it, which is on the feet, and he
did prove that first time. He's capable of outworking Nicolau.
And if you look at Nikolau, he's lost only three
times in his career, all three times by strikes. That
(39:19):
is the most common form of victory for Kape. So
I see lots of factors here lining up for Manel Cop.
Speaker 6 (39:25):
I like him.
Speaker 8 (39:26):
The prices maybe getting a little bit too high. I
think you had to grab him early to see a
lot of value. We'll see where we end up on Friday.
I'm thinking maybe a little bit of attraction. People are
going to remember, hey, he did lose that first fight,
and Nicolau's only loss is against Roydal, which is a
pretty you know, elite talent. So I think this should
be a little bit closer in the odds, But my
lean is towards Cop.
Speaker 2 (39:47):
If Cop can keep the fight standing.
Speaker 1 (39:49):
Do you see finishing potential because you mentioned Nikolau may
be susceptible to strikes, or do you think this is
a fight more than likely that ends up potentially hitting
the cards or over two and a half rounds.
Speaker 6 (39:59):
Yeah, you know, it's interesting. The flyweights don't really show
up abnormally low.
Speaker 8 (40:03):
In terms of the knockout rate as a division, as
we used to see a steeper trend in terms of
smaller fighters not landing the knockouts, It's not really true anymore.
These guys add up to thirteen combined knockdowns, and if
you look up and down the cart, it's hard to
find that many outside of the main event, and those
guys are light heavyweights. So there is plenty of knockdown
potential in these guys. And if they're fighting for fifteen
(40:24):
rounds back and forth and it stays on the feet, yeah,
I do see.
Speaker 6 (40:27):
Some finishing potential.
Speaker 8 (40:28):
Nikolau has been dropped three times, so he is susceptible,
and I think Cop may have more confidence in his
hands due to his finishes, So yeah.
Speaker 6 (40:36):
I'll see.
Speaker 8 (40:37):
I would like to see some plus money on a
striking finish for Cop, but yeah, that could be an angle.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
Plus a R seventy there krt kr dq on the
Cop side if he can get it done with those hands.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
I see a bad moon rising.
Speaker 1 (40:48):
I always hear CCR whenever Jim Miller makes that ring
walk here. It's going to do it against Gabriel Bernitez here,
and Miller is now flipped to the favorites. Role does
the data support forty years young Jim Miller being a
favorite in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 8 (41:06):
I mean, he continues to set records. The guy's pretty timeless.
And it's funny because he's not even nearly the oldest
guy on this card because we also have Andre Rolovski
competing this weekend. But Jim Miller has proven to be
a dual threat guy. He is competent with his hands.
He always has awesome submissions in grappling, and I think
that could be the difference here because Benitez doesn't have
(41:26):
above average takedown defense, and once he's on the ground
he has mostly been dominated to the tune of nearly
eighty percent of control time for his opponents. That's pretty lopsided.
I think if Miller gets this down, he owns this fight.
It was interesting he was actually briefly the underdog and
now he's back in the favorite, So the market can't
really decide if they want to trust a forty year
(41:47):
old guy, But in this case, I think they found
an opponent that actually works to his favor So probably
I'm going to be leaning towards Jim Miller on fight
night even if I have to lay a little bit
of juice.
Speaker 6 (41:57):
Not too much.
Speaker 3 (41:57):
Though.
Speaker 1 (41:58):
You know, every time I see these fights before I
ever look at the numbers, and I know stylistically I
can hear reed Koon and the fights data points coming
out for a fighter, say like Ricky Simone, because I
know how much the numbers are. You guys value those
wrestlers against Mario Bautista here and Simone is a big
favorite Misty already, but maybe would be even bigger if
(42:20):
it didn't look so bad the last time out against
Songa Dong. Do the numbers support Simone as close to
a two dollars betting favorite.
Speaker 8 (42:28):
Yeah, it's not that Batista has bad grappling metrics. They're
actually pretty good. It's just that Simone is awesome with
his wrestling control time and actually, up and down the card,
he has the most total control time per fight of
any fighter. He's spending over a quarter of his time
in control on the mat. So that's a startling metric.
So if Batista, who has generally been successful when he
(42:50):
uses his grappling, not as much so on striking but
more in his grappling, that's going to get negated. And
if you're taking away his best strength, and then you're
pitting them against Ricky Simone, who's maybe going to have
the edge on the ground, or at least a neutral
situation on the ground, but he's definitely going to have
the edge with the hands because Ricky Simone hits hard,
(43:10):
and I think eventually that could make a difference. So
I think he gets to choose where this fight goes,
and you know, give me Ricky Simone. That's a fairly
affordable price for a guy with advantages on both levels.
Speaker 1 (43:21):
Got about a minute ago, but i'd bever miss in
twenty twenty four if we didn't talk about fire that
was fighting in nineteen ninety six, the former heavyweight champion
of the world, Andre Rolobski back in there against Waldo
Cortez Acosta almost a five dollars betting under a look
six dollar betting underdog for a cost. If you want
to back to fave, how do you handicap a fight
(43:42):
like Orlovski in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 6 (43:44):
I don't know, this is ridiculous.
Speaker 8 (43:47):
You really got to go back and cherry pick someone
who was north of nearly forty five years old to
step into the octagon. James Tony might be alone exception,
and maybe Randy Point came in that old, but this
is definitely rare air for a UFC fighter to enter
the octgon at that age. Statistically speaking, Yeah, Waldo has
(44:11):
much crisper striking and you got to think the speed
advantage for someone fourteen years younger.
Speaker 6 (44:16):
He's gonna find the chin at some point.
Speaker 8 (44:18):
Orlowski has been dropped ten times in UFC competition. That
is probably in the top five if I had to
think about who's been dropped that.
Speaker 6 (44:27):
Many times, dangerous, dangerous. Hopefully it's a retirement plight.
Speaker 2 (44:31):
Wow, I'm glad you're not retired.
Speaker 1 (44:33):
I'm glad I'm not because, yeah, we keep punching here
in twenty twenty four, so thanks to Britain has Rob Marino.
Speaker 2 (44:39):
We are back baby, cashing tickets.
Speaker 1 (44:40):
We'll see you next week here on first right
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