April 15, 2024 • 44 mins
In hour two of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and Jonathan Von Tobel discuss the opening series prices for four NBA Playoff matchups plus go through the latest odds in various NFL Draft betting markets.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I always follow the money. That's why I say you
always follow. Yeah. Yeah. This is Follow the Money with
Mitch Moss and Paully Howard on Vson. Welcome in.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Follow the Money here on Vson, the Sports
Betty Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings
Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel. This week, PAULI
is on vacation. We're live in downtown Las Vegas from
the Circa Resort and Casino. And the NBA's regular season
is finally over with which means we get to play
(00:31):
in games tomorrow and Wednesday night. We also have the
first round playoff series numbers available and at DraftKings. The
menu at DraftKings for everything is gigantic and they did
not mess around at all with the NBA playoffs as well.
Like to bet these series, you can find pretty much
anything that you're looking for and they put them up
almost immediately. No, they're up a bang, just like that.
So let's begin in the Western Conference. My prediction not
(00:54):
so much for the series at this point, but my
prediction is going to be, and I think yours as well, right,
is going to be You're not going to find too
many people make the case for the Clippers to beat
the Mavericks in this series. No, and I say that
because Dallas has been red hot, and I think when
ESPN sends out like to I'll use them as the
example here. I think when they send out their predictions overall,
(01:17):
they probably have between like fifteen and twenty people at
the network give their predictions. My guess is going to
be it's going to be something in the fifteen to
two range sure of people picking the Mavericks compared to
people picking the Clippers.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
Yeah, I think so. I think that we also and
to be fair too, because we've seen this series price
some spots open the Clippers as a small underdog DraftKings
open them up a small like dollar twenty favorite. It's
not like about a pick and there. We don't know
what's happening with Kawhi Leonard. That's like the big thing
that hangs over this series. Now. The Clippers have said
the reports are Mri was clean, He's fine. I will
(01:51):
also remind everybody that last year they lied about his
flat out lied about his knee right he allegedly injured
in Game one, and that went over. The Phoenix played
Game two without popping up on the injury report, and
then Game three was out, and then they said he
heard it in Game one. So I wouldn't trust them
as far as you could throw them, but I will
say this, if if he is healthy, let's just let's
(02:14):
assume the truth. Then let's just say that he's going
to be out there healthy and ready to go for
Game one of this series. The Clippers can win this series.
They should be favored to win this series. And there's
kind of this weird like this thought that the Mavericks
and Luka Doncic owned the Los Angeles Clippers. They got
winning a record against the last three seasons. They're two
to zero against them in the postseason. You know, the
(02:35):
Dallas Mavericks and the Mavericks have gotten much better. And
for me, that's the fascinating part. You mentioned how good
they are. So their new starting lineup, Luka Doncich, Kyrie Irving,
Derek Jones, Junior PJ. Washington, Daniel Gafford at about four
hundred possessions total play together, Mitch a plus fifteen point
nine net rating and the most impressive part at defensive rate,
and it gives him just barely over a point per possession, Like,
that's how good they've been. And that, for me is
(02:57):
where it starts because the reason why I like playoff
basketball so much, it's all about those matchups. So like,
if you're the Clippers in past years, each zu watch
has been eating alive by Luka Doncic. He picks on
him every possession down the floor. Could you play small ball?
Because if you put PJ. Tucker in there, well then
all of a sudden, Daniel Gaffer's gonna catching lobs all
over the place, absolutely destroying you. And so the intricacies
(03:17):
of those matchups, what they're going to do, I'm absolutely
fascinated by what the series is going to be.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
So people that make the case for the Mavericks, I
think they're also going to say it's going to be
maybe a five or six game series.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
I'm not going to buy into that.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
However, you can bet the Mavericks minus one and a
half games at DraftKings plus one fifty five, and you're right.
If you go back to like March eleventh, that was
the game against the Balls where it really flipped for
this Mavericks team. They blew out the Bulls in that
spot and that's when the defense really just looked like
it did a total turnaround. They're basically the best team
in the NBA, yes, right, since that since that point.
(03:49):
But if Kawhi, that's the biggest if of the entire playoffs,
probably if Kawhi plays total game changer. If not, they're
not going to win the series. In my opinion, and
I ran this you last night. I don't like laying
big prices. However, the Mavericks plus two and a half
games is minus four seventy five. I can no, I
(04:11):
totally agree with what everything that you just said. I
can see the Clippers winning the series. In fact, if
Kawhi place, I think they're going to. But I don't
think the Clippers are going to beat them in a
sweep or a five game series.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
No, I think.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I think if the Clippers win this series, it's going
to be six or seven.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
You can get two. I know it's minus.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Nobody ever wants to talk about lame big numbers, me included,
but minus four seventy five on plus two and a
half games, I don't hate it.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
No, I don't at all, especially when you look at
the way that the Clippers are going to pull up
the exact number. But the way that they've been playing defensively,
We'll call it like since the post the post All
Star Break hasn't really been great for him. Post All
Star Break, they are twenty fourth and non garbage time
defensive efficiency. Now, their offense has still been very good,
but their defense just hasn't been there. And so when
you're going to have these certain mismatches that Luka Doncis
(04:54):
is going to be able to pick on, well, you
yourself are going to be able to do that too.
Like each one of these series that they had played
with them was extremely tight. I remember the last time
they played they were down three to two. Going back
to Dallas, Kawhi Leonard scored like forty five points, was incredible.
Pushed at the seven, they eventually won that series two. Like, no,
these are gonna be hard, tight, like fought. This is
a series in which, even if Kawi Leonard plays, I'm
sure the Clippers will probably only be like a dollar
(05:16):
dollar thirty dollars forty five favorite. I would argue it
should be higher, but either way, it's going to be
a tight series. If Kuhi is going to be out
there and down to the wire, I would agree with
that sentiment. At all.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
It sounds to me though, like you don't have a
bet on this yet. No, because you need to know.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
I need to know now, and I think too instead
of because you said, what now, what was it? The
Clipper Mavericks plus two and a half games plus two
and a half games, that's the what's the series total?
Because you could also do that, right, I think it's yeah,
you can. Oh they got everything. It's absolutely incredible. So
you can go over you know a certain amount of games,
like if something like that and that nature, I think
you would totally look at something there in terms of
total games played for the series, and they totally problem.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Five and a half overs minus one ninety five.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
There you go, I see something like that.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
You could also find over six and a half at
a pretty nice plus price.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Right, So essentially asking yea is this game? Yes? No?
Will it go seven? And I think that it's a
very plausible reality.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Okay, so this is incredible. Great tweet from at Powertrip Bets.
Powertrip is a morning show in Minneapolis on Kfan. The
Minnesota Timberwolves have been underdogs in an NBA longest twenty
two consecutive playoff games. The street goes back to May nineteen,
two thousand and four and the Sacramento King's Western Conference
(06:25):
semi final series. They opened up a two point favorite
against the Suns in Game one. Will they go off
the favorite here in this game? They're not even the
favorite to win the series?
Speaker 1 (06:34):
And here they are. They've been one of the best
teams in the NBA the entire year. I mean, that's
the fascinating dynamic, right Like, yes, two is a coin flip.
It's barely being favored, but your favorite to win your
first game, and yet you're a small underdog for the
series against Phoenix. And I'll say this, look, I think
from a matchup standpoint Minnesota, it probably did not want
to see Phoenix. Like when you have guys who can
are elite shot makers no matter who is defending them,
(06:57):
that's a problem. And as good as Mike Conley is
to defensively, he's very sound. He's not shutting down Devin
Booker or anything. And maybe that's Andreward's assignment when we've
seen him play in the past. That's kind of the
guy who's picked up. But you know, the way I've
been putting in mitches, the market has been waiting for
the opportunity to bet on Phoenix to ratchet up that
power rating. I was hoping they were going to get
(07:18):
Oklahoma City so I could lay the crap out of
a very short price for the Oklahoma City Thunder against Phoenix,
because I just I think the market is too high
here on the Suns, and I, like I find myself
gravitating towards Minnesota. Like I get the matchup as poor.
I get they played them poorly the last few times
that they have played them as well. But you give
a guy like Finch, Chris Finch, their head coach, time
to get ready with the defensive scheme, and you get
(07:39):
a Suns team that, yes, down the stretch, has played better,
but over the grand scheme of things, has also fallen
flat on their face multiple times. Oh, they're losing to
the Clippers the way they did in that game against Phoenix.
Remember two weeks ago, Shake Gills Alexander gets ruled out,
Jaalen Williams isn't playing. They go to Oklahoma City, get
boat raced by the Oklahoma City Thunder. There's so many
different spots in which this team has fallen short, but
(08:01):
the market's been waiting for them to be so good.
I want to say that Phoenix is overvalued coming into
the series.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Okay, so you're holding Timberwolves at a nice big number
to win the Western Conference this year. You grab that
right away this season. What is your advice here for
others who are in the same boat. It sounds to
me like you almost want to add more Minnesota in
the series.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Part of me wants to. I mean, the perfect thing
is that you can't do anything right. You can't do
anything now at the very especially if if you have
something to win the Western Conference at the minimum, you
need them to make it to a Western Conference semifinals.
You need it to be the second round. So you
could take a piece off of this, but you don't
want to start taking things, you know, stay taking out
of your stake. You'll three rounds in because by the
time you gets the Western confence finding do it right,
(08:40):
you can't do it. So that's part of my push
and pull with this as well, is I feel like
there is some value here in Minnesota, but as somebody
who already has something on them do, I just want
to sit back and wait and see what's going to
happen with the series, because I've already got an investment
that says I think they are better than what the
market believes.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Okay, if you did not have the Wolves till thirty
to one, you'd betting them here.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Yeah, I think so, and I'd be fascinated to see
we got a couple of days, right obviously until the
series begins, and what the market does with this, right,
I mean, we're talking about Phoenix minus one fifteen. Does
it get up to the point where you might get
you know, even money plus one oh five plus one
ten on Minnesota by the time we get to tip off.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Yeah, how about the Eastern Conference, the Bucks and the
Pacers play in the first round.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
It's the three versus the six.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
It did not go well for the Bucks against Indy
in the regular season, and yet the Bucks are at
DraftKings a two forty five favorite the Pacers plus one
ninety five on the take back.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
By the way, so this is I tweeted this out yesterday.
How about this little nugget. Average closing total in the
regular season series between the Bucks and the Pacers. So
they played five games, let me guess two forty eight
and a half two fifty four point nine that was
the average. The average closing total this one opened up
for Game one two thirty eight and a half. Yeah,
so like we've come a long way. But what I'm
interested in is while the Bucks are one and four
(09:54):
against Indiana, they haven't played since January third. Yeah, it's
been a long time. They have not faced pascalci with
the Indiana Pacers, and the Pacers have not played them
since Doc Rivers has taken over. And while it hasn't
gone particularly well, Doc has a losing record. The one
thing you could say, Mitch is they've gotten better defensively.
With Adrian and Griffin, they had a defensive rating a one
to seventeen point eight. They gave up one hundred and
(10:16):
nineteen point two points every one hundred plays off of
live rebounds defensively with Doc Rivers one hundred and fourteen
point two, so about three point six points fewer per
one hundred possessions defensively overall and off a live rebounds
are transition defense has gotten way better, in fact, five
point one points fewer per one hundred plays off of
live rebounds. So you're playing an Indiana Pacers team that
is not playing as fast anymore because Pascal Siakam likes
(10:38):
to play through the post and they're effective, but they've
gotten better defensively. Giannis again is the big thing, right
is he going to play? If you take Damian Lillard
at his word after he got hurt, Lillard told them
that he suffered the same injury it caused it it
took two weeks for him to recover. That would put
you right at the start of this series. And if
Giannis isn't going to be available, I understand the price
(10:59):
moving and favor of Indiana. But if you're telling me
Giannis is going to be there at started game one,
I don't know. I feel like we might get to
a point where, if the price gets low enough, you
could talk me into getting back here in Indiana or
excuse me, I'm Milwaukee, you know. So.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
I was watching the NBA show last night, the Playoff
special on ESPN, and I totally agree with what Stephen A.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Smith said.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
He says that just by watching it doesn't look like
Damian Lillard even wants to be there.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Sure, and we should know too, By the way, since
Tyre's Aliburton's injury. Remember he got hurt really bad. He
went for twenty three points a game, essentially twenty four
to just seventeen. Yeah, forty nine percent, shooting from the
four forty five percent. Since the injury, he's not been
the same.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
NFL Draft up next, It's coming up Thursday, Next Thursday.
Could this be a tell for who this team is
drafting in the top ten?
Speaker 1 (11:57):
This is follow the Money, I said, folks. It's still
open for free, so check it out now. If you
use betting splits as part of your handicapping tools, well
you can check them out for free over at vson
dot com. Slash Splitz page is still open. You don't
even need a pro subscriptions. You could check out where
the money in bets are moving today in Major League
(12:18):
Baseball and future events, as well as you get a
early look at the play in games in the NBA.
Check it out now Vson dot com slash.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Plit April is awesome. Next Thursday, already we get the
NFL track.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
I can't believe it came quickly and slowly at the
same time.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
You're right, yep, okay, So the quarterback market here in
the first round, the right here you go. This gets
you fired up more than anything I believe. So here
in Las Vegas at Station Casinos, the prop opened up
a long time ago. I want to say that was
either late February or early March.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yeah, Chuck coping U pretty early.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
He didy it did a great job with all these markets, right,
and that I think peaked late last week. Over four
and a half quarterbacks go in the first round. What
was the biggest number you saw.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
On the overs? Like minus three?
Speaker 2 (13:00):
I want to say, I think I saw minus three fifty.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Okay, yeah, somewhere in that range. And that range.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
So the under was plus two sixty, that's for sure
the high point. Yep, Yeah, that's coming down here. Also
at DraftKings now over four and a half quarterbacks is
minus two dollars.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
The under is plus one sixty this morning.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
So you've been saying this since the I think I
think the college football season was still going on. Why
you were basically saying, I can't wait to bet the
under on the quarterback prop.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Well, so this is my thing for for years now.
I have I've bet under on quarterbacks in the first
round every single year since the draft is good for you,
I have not good and my whole thing. And for
those who don't know, so we've had seven years now,
this will be the eighth year in the last seven years,
six years we've got under the total for quarterbacks in
the first round. And as I always point out, there's
a caveat the one year it went over, that was
(13:46):
Lamar Jackson's year, the number actually closed five. So if
you got the right number, you're actually sitting at six
zero to one to the under if you've played this
the right way. Since NFL Draft betting has been a thing,
and my thing has just always been, like, you know,
we we give quarterbacks too much credit right when it
comes to the conversations around them. We also overvalue where
these guys might end up going, and you get like
perfect examples, you know, Mitch the I always think the
(14:09):
perfect example is the Malik Willis Kenny Pikett year, right
where everybody their mother was telling you, you know, I watched
these guys, I don't think their first round picks, and
yet the market's like that three and a half shaded
to the over one guy goes in the first one.
I think was that also, Desmond Ritter, Yes, as Rider,
I think it was the Matt Croud draft as well.
If I remember, I think you're right. I mean, you
go back to last year and and it's even around
the mock drafts and the information that are out there.
(14:30):
There's headlines Will Levis Indianapolis cults right, that was supposed
to be the connection. Will Levis was supposed to go
number four to Indianapolis a year ago.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
Next week it took off on Reddit, thing he might
go number one overall. Mike told my Milkman that time
to fill up.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Will Yeah, Will Levis is telling people's going number one overall.
And by the way, you obviously the market fell for it.
But this has always just kind of been my thing,
is we kind of we do this all the time,
and sure enough it happened again this year. So I've
actually been very like some alone on this where I
actually kind of feel like we're doing this again with
JJ McCarthy, where I don't think he's actually going to
go as high as we expect. You know, a lot
of people keep going, you know, one, two, three, four,
(15:07):
it could be quarterbacks. We're starting to see some pushback
on that. Dan Brugler, for those who don't know, works
the Athletic, one of the more respected NFL draft guys
out there, came out with his beast. He's got JAJ
McCarthy as actually twenty first select you know, twenty first. Overall,
he's got him in a first second grade, first round,
second round grade, so I think he's going to go
a little bit later than we expect. But guys like
bo Nick and Michael Pennock Junior solidly second to third
(15:27):
round guys. According to Brugler. You see guys like Todd mcshan.
I know you guys played the audio right last week
where he's telling Ryan Risillo. Everybody that I have spoken
to has a what at best a second round grade
on bo Nix and they're calling him a backup y
if they all think he's going to be a backup
Pennix polarizing, but again consistently by the way I think
it's crazy, but consistently behind Bonnicks in a lot of
(15:48):
the different things I don't get right. But either way,
I have become more and more because of the returns
over the last six years, but also just because as
more information comes out and as we get closer to
the draft, it's becoming more and more likely that again
Bo Nick and Michael Pennix Junior are going to be
second to third round selections. And I think it would
it just makes more sense let me ask you this.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
If a book posted five and a half quarterbacks and
the underwa like, how high would you bet that to
the under?
Speaker 1 (16:17):
I mean that's to me the value would be insane
on five and a half?
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Would you go would you go like under you would
easily bet like minus three dollars?
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Yeah? Yeah? Would you bet like minus five dollars on that? Yeah?
If you have the bank, will do it? Yes. I
mean because I was texting with Doug Cazering about this
and he brought this up to me too. Where on
five and a half, Like, given the way the market opened,
theoretically you should be opening that like minus one thousand
on an under or something like that, Like if you
really look at how that should be priced. So oh yeah,
Like if for whatever reason you've got five and a
(16:45):
half under minus like three p fifty, I think the
actual like value in that percentage would be astronomical. Here's
what I'm gonna do.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Because there are so many books, I don't have access
to all of them, But if anybody sees that number
out there, can you please tweet the show with the
screen grab of that at vsen Live at Mitch Moss Radio.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
He's at me JVT.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I'm looking specifically for how many quarterbacks will go in
the first round. If a book has five and a half,
I'm curious of what the juice is as we sit
here now a week and a half before the event
takes place. Now, this is a good tweet from Steve
Palozzolo Pro Football Focus. He pointed out, did the math
on this, looked at all the numbers New Falcons head
coach Raheem Morris. His Rams defense had three hundred and
(17:27):
fifty five snaps where at least one edge defender dropped
into coverage last year, most in the league. He broke
down the most coverage snaps among top edges this year
in the draft. Look at this, Dallas Turner sticks out
like a sore thumb. It's two hundred and thirty eight
JVT and nobody else is even This is like he's
lapping the field by five times the amount.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Yes, so he seems like, you know, at this timely reference,
he seems like a hand in glove fit, right, you know,
with Raheem Morris. So when you look at what Raheem
Morris wants to do with some of his ed rushers,
I think it makes a lot of sense. And by
the way, like I've seen two mock drafts that have
Jared Verse at that position in terms of for Atlanta
instead of a guy like Dallas Turner.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Land Zerline one of them, and he said, I'm going
to plant my flag on Verse going eighth overall to
the falcon.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Sure, and look it makes sense, but this to me
pushed it over the edge. So I added a little bit.
But by the way, the numbers move, I know was
texting about you this last week, Dallas Turner, to go
eighth overall one point was plus three forty. It's now
plus two to fifty to go eighth over It came
down the much humber, So it came down almost you know,
a full buck. But like I think that's still worth it.
When you were talking about again just like a plus
price and going back to what we're talking about with
the quarterbacks, you know, like betting under at plus two
(18:35):
sixty totally worth it when you have the history that
we do with quarterbacks. Same thing here where you have
this at least fit. You have a team that's clearly
looking for an edge rusher that a lot of people
think are going to go with that direction. You have
a coach that likes to use his edge rushers in
certain situations, and you have an edge rusher coming out
that has experience dropping into coverage and doing those things.
And I thought at plus three forty, I actually still
(18:56):
think of plus two fifty, that's still worth putting something
on here. With Turner going eight, and by the way,
specifically it's Turner to go eighth overall. So if the
Falcons trade back and draft them, obviously get screwed because
you're not going to be there. I don't think there's
any reason for the Falcons, who are going to get
their first pick of the best defensive player, to move
out of that spot.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
I don't know if they're going to trade out right,
you know, I don't think that's going to be a
team that does.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Maybe they do.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Maybe I'm wrong on that, because somebody trade's gonna happen.
I think they're going to stay put at number eight.
You're going to get your pick of every defensive player.
And if you're exactly right, and if they do like
the edge position to be selected by the Falcons, I
saw at minus two fifty, yep. So if it's going
to be an edge player, if that's if it's that
big of a favorite. Well, it's probably going to be
Turner or Verse.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Yeah, well it's so cool. It's crazy how they stuff
like this shapes markets. So, for example, if you actually
look at the first defensive player drafted market, the three
edge guys are actually all the top three picks. So
it's like, so it's Dallas Turner, it's Jared Verse, and
it's layout to a lot to who are those top
three selections because we just know that he Atlanta seems
really likely. Yet they're going to have the first defensive
(19:55):
player off the board and they want an edge rusher,
so it's more than likely going to be one of
these three guys. I'll give you another one too.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
You can find the first position drafted by the Chargers
offensive lineman is minus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
That number. Actually, I like it so much it scares me. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I mean, is Jim Harball the biggest bser in the
NFL by his comments two weeks ago where he basically
said he was talking glowingly about the offensive line and
how important it is to build success and they're going
to run the football. Greg Roman's a new offensive coordinator
based on his history with other teams, they love to
run the ball. Everybody just thinks because there's no more
(20:32):
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are automatically going to go
wide receiver fifth or wherever they might pick in the
first round. If they trade back, that's to me, it's
not going to be the case. To me, it's going
to be offensive lineman.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Yeah, and I also think I get I would say
the only the reality in which they don't is if
Marvin Harrison Junior is their five, right, if they actually
go quarterbacks for the first four picks, which I don't
think is going to happen, and then you sitting there
if you're the Chargers and the best wide receiver prospect
in a while, so just sitting there, that's probably where
you get burned. But I would agree with you, and
I would actually say two, if you trade back, I
would say that increase is the likelihood of them potentially
(21:04):
going after one of these offensive linement. It's a deep class.
I mean, that's by the way, that's also one of
the ones. I bet over nine and a half offensive
lineman first round. About I haven't seen anything less than
ten in like every mock everything or more.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Yeah, Okay, how about the cornerbacks, prop, did you do
anything with that number? No, I always tho those are
the three big ones that are available, the offensive line,
the cornerbacks, well, the wide receivers are in there as well,
along with the qbs.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Yeah, the common number that I've seen in these mocks
that I've put together is five. For the corners. On
the low end, it's four, but like five is the
most common number that you see in the first round,
and I think you're looking at five and a half
as the number for them. Yeah. Yeah, so I think
I guess you'd lean under because it doesn't seem like
there's it seems to be strong, but it seems to
be top heavy, also attempted by a big price on
under safeties under a half. The only kid that might
(21:55):
come in is I think it's the safety out of Minnesota.
I think, yeah, they might sneak in there.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
I've seen actually some mocks of the Packers taking him there. Really,
who knows, because the Packers pick has been all over
the map. Yeah, either offensive lineman cornerback generally is the
number one pick, but also people are making the case
for linebacker as well for Green Bay. So you still
like the Titans offensive lineman, even though it's minus three dollars.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Now, yeah, they'll be worth it sub spots or as
high as minus five hundred bas big, Okay, given what
you've seen the mad given where the market's going, if
you can find like three dollars or better. Again, in
the NFL's draft, you mentioned it. You don't like the
lay point, and the NFL draft is based off information,
you're gonna be laying prices a lot.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
I thought that was worth it, all right, So up
next we're gonna do door number one or door number two.
JBT is going to be great on this. He has
to pick one. Which quarterback is going as a first rounder.
We'll ask him coming up next.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
This is part of the money on fe said, it's
time to play everyone's favorite follow the Money Game live
from the Vson Studios. Hey guys, here he lets the
dogs out. This is door number one. What is high score? Me?
Who high scores a bell? What's that? Meanes? I break it?
(23:15):
Or door number two? Yes, studs, good day, sir. Here's
Mitch Moss and Pauli Howard.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
So Paully John the patient, Jonathan von Tobol sitting in
this week. This is going to be a fun one
to expand on the NFL Draft. Both of these are
up at DraftKings, kind of telling you, by the way,
with the prices of my opinion.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
So door number one and you have to bet one
of these.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Door number one bow knicks under thirty two and a
half with the draft position is plus one thirty. Michael
Pennock's under thirty two and a half is plus one ten.
Which door do you want to go through?
Speaker 1 (23:47):
All right? So if I have to pick one, I
think i'd go with door two. Like so, we we
had Tom McShay say that everybody that he's talked through
thinks Bonix second third round backup. He called panics polarizing,
which means obviously that means there's opinion on both ends
of the spectrum. And I also, I think Pennix is
better than bo Nicks. I'm kind of surprised at they're
pretty convinced that he's right. I've been kind of surprised
(24:08):
ford this whole process. The group think is that Bonix
is solidly ahead of Penix. I would disagree with that.
So I don't think either's going to happen. But if
I'm betting one of them, I'd rather go with Pennix.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
So you're telling me that the numbers here, the odds
are suggesting that bone he's favored to go over thirty
two and a half. Yep, Michael Pennix is favored to
go over thirty two and a half as well. And
yet four and a half quarterbacks over is favored to
go in the first round.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Yep. Does that correlate to you, Spencer Rattley, you're forgetting
about him?
Speaker 2 (24:38):
Oh yeah, yeah, silly me.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
First round thing. I'm telling you, man, the quarter of
the first round quarterbacks happens every year and you see
it in the coverage too when you see mock drafts.
What's the headline? Four quarterbacks top six, six quarterbacks top twelve.
Oh yeah, that's all it's about. You just got to
get that because you know what, I always make fun
of it because he's a funny name. If I were
to put out a mock draft and I were to
tell you that Jackson Powers Johnson goes the center for Oregon,
(25:02):
like nobody cares, right, of course, but you got to
get these quarterbacks in. So like that's it's such a
great example. And by the way, we were on the
air for vis in prime time when that Knixt position
that had DraftKings opened up. That went from like under
minus one twenty to over minus one p fifty within
an hour, and.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
They put it at thirty two and a half. That
was the opening number.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
There was another book, a national book that had and
I don't see it this morning.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
They may have yanked it.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
They had Nix's position at twenty six and.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
A half a little off. Yeah, it's a little off.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
You'll probably reassess, and posted it for number here.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Sometimes sin it's kind of a od number because there's
nobody really around them right now. It's like tied to him,
which is kind of odd.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
So all these mocks that have had Nicks going twelve,
specifically the Broncos because of the Drew Brees connection. Right,
short white guy playing quarterback under Sean Payton.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
That's a little too convenient. It is well actually, and
I can I commend like mel Kiper so he had
a mock draft on it was March nineteenth, okay, and
he had he had him Bonex going twelve. But even
put in there, I don't think that he is a
first round talent, but I'm going to put him in here. Anyway,
because the Broncos need a quarterback. His latest mock draft
that came out about four days ago, he had somebody
(26:11):
else going I can't remember who was, but he put
in there. I can't do it anymore. He's not a
first round talent essentially, I'm paraphrasing. Okay, and so he
didn't have bonicks here. This is you're starting to see
this turn in terms of where we're at with these guys.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
I know, by the way, like this chatter of the
Broncos being one of those teams that could move up
ahead of the Vikings to take a quarterback because the
Vikings need one as well.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
They appear to be obsessed with J. G. McCarthy.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
They've made a move now in recent weeks, adding a
second first round pick where they could eventually move up
and take a guy that they would want higher than
where they're currently selecting. Did the Broncos want to go
down that path? They just did it for Russell Wilson
and clearly they you know, Sean Payton anyway thought it
was a ridiculous move.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Yep. Well, and the other thing too is so you
don't have them any assets, you would sacrifice more assets
to go get this quarterback, then you would have none
to us to build around him as you move forward
in future years. And by the way, Sean Payton is
reportedly the second highest paid head coach in American sports
right not just the NFL. So if that's the case,
(27:12):
he's not on any rush in terms of a timeline.
So use your assets wisely, build up the roster, Go ahead,
roll with Jared Stidham for a year, see what happens.
And if you finish inside of the top five again,
well guess what. Then use that opportunity to go get
a quarterback. There were in no rush to make this happen.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Now, that's solid logic, honestly, and so do they Just
at twelve though, to me is a complete reach for
either of these guys, including bon Nicks.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Yep, and for Penix. I thought Adam brought up a
brilliant point at which I totally forgotten about. We talked
about all the injuries of the course of his year
he had. He had another injury at the end of
the regular season last year. He was not the same guy.
There's no way he gets a month off and then
comes back in the playoff and looks much better like
there is a there is something worried. And then again
with both of these guys, Mitch rookie year. At the
end of that, at the end of your rookie contract,
(27:59):
you're gonna be talking about into your thirties. That's not
pretty much or touch of your thirties. That's not what
you want for a quarterback at the end of his
rookie deal.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
Door number one the Max Holloway finish Saturday Night UFC
three hundred or door number two, a walk off winner
in any other sport well as.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
A pure alpha male who's knocked out many men in
his life. I've seen it. Yeah, but I'll go with
the door number two because I've been there and done
that with door number one. No, door number one, are
you serious, man, especially with the rush of the crowd
and everybody's screaming and doing all that just in that
moment and of course leading up to it too, where
they's true like a lot of people didn't think he
was gonna be able to do it. Oh, that was awesome.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
I'll go with the finish in my opinion, like that
win for at least a twenty four hour period, the
biggest ego on the planet for anybody.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Yes, could have been Max Holloway.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
He could have strutted into any room in the world
with the cockiest right like look on his face attitude
out of anybody. Forget Scotty Cheffer running away with the masters.
It's Max Holloway finishing. He didn't have to do that,
by the way. He was going to win the fight, right,
and he decided let's go to war baby, and in
the final ten seconds are swinging for the fences and
he just I mean it's over with one second to go, yep.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
And to do that, like you know, over a fellow competitor,
the closest you'll get touch in the line, to take
in somebody's life, you know, just right there, eliminating their consciousness.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Will never, unless you're a UFC or a boxer, will never.
I mean, what, what what's that feeling? Like?
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Want's try it out?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
I mean, I honestly don't want. They're not rooting to
kill somebody, obviously, but to actually finish the job like that, right.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Oh man, fan hard not to think it, Oh j Joe.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Door number one the Oklahoma City Thunder lose their first
round playoff series, or Door number two, they win the
West and yes, yes, it has to be one or
the other. Yeah, I know that's tough. That's a good one.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
I will go with let me double check to see
what this path looks like. Ooh, I'll go with door
number one because there is a reality. Say it ain't
so that the Lakers lose. Here's the real question. They're
not going to do it. But here's the real question.
If you're the Lakers, I know where you're going to go.
(30:11):
Do you tank this? Then you got to you risk it?
Then maybe you got to beat the Warriors. You gotta
you get a home game. You'll get a home games
I can play in. But you would get the opportunity
to take on a team that you were three and
one against and have absolutely man handled them, and they
read that needle.
Speaker 2 (30:25):
Right, they lose their playing game to the Pelicans, then
come back and in theory beat the Warriors.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
Yeah, I mean it would be right. It would be
the perfect because I don't think that I don't think
the Lakers want to see the Nuggets. I like the
Nugget team a lot. I think they match up well
with the Lakers. That everybody got, you know, all Randy
about ruer hatchemore reg guarding Nicole Yoakis for like five
seconds in the Western Conference Finals last year. If they
got swept, I I it's not going to happen, but
(30:51):
it would be kind of funny if it did. And
if what if they just lose They're only there one
point under. Yeah, so what if they just lose a
coin flip and then win the second game and then
you get okay, see and the who would you like
in that series matchup? Please? I think so too.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
They did very well against them in the regular season.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
Their side, they're just they have too much size for him.
This is uh on the air. It was after the
draft last year.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I said, the team that you want you need to
bet on this upcoming season right now is Oklahoma City.
There was a book I grabbed it at sixty to
one to win the West ooh nice, back in June.
So it's been that money's been tied up for a
long time now. I am deathly afraid of that bet.
If they get the Lakers in Round one.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Any of these other teams you'd rather see? If I would,
I would. You don't want the Lakers to fall to
eight and then get in door number one.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Jackson Holiday plus four to fifty to win the American
League Rooki of the Year or Door number two his
own teammate Colton Kowser. He was plus five point fifty
still yesterday until he went yard again, down to three
to one.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
I want to say Door number one only because with
these awards, for like preseason hype is is really important.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I think, I mean, the narrative was already built in
for this game.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Yes, like he just has to come up and just
have an average an average season. Now I get hurt,
and I think he's probably gonna win this thing.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
I'll tell you though, this Cowsard he's been the spring
training that he had, Yep, it was absurd. He was
blistering hot, and it's actually carried over into the regular season,
which debt does not happen.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
For Homer's and thirty eight played appearances.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
Yeah, I mean he's he's forcing their hand because there
was going to be basically a platoon because they have
so much talent offensively and they don't want to rush
the young guys up.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
There's no way that this guy can sit. Although I
do think Jackson Holllett it ground it out in his
first bat, so he's probably a fraud.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Yeah, he probably stinks. In fact, he finally got his
first head after like ten or eleven at bats. So
let's let's chill out here a little bit.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Under the single a rookie ball, let him develop a
little bit. They will they have to make another move.
I would think for a pitcher, Oh, you can't. They
have too much young talent that needs to play. You
got to force the window open. You just you can't.
There's no way you can't do this. You would be
doing good disservice to the team, to the fans, everything.
I totally agree. They are good.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
I mean, we saw last year they were the one
seed and they didn't have enough pitching and.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Even some like even some of these rough series losses,
like I watched that whole series with the Royals. Man,
they were just it was just bad luck in terms
where they were hitting these balls. They're good, man, yeare
really freaking good. Ye.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
So up next, we will get into a very heavy
Major League Baseball card. Today we'll go for some of
the numbers on the card and who were buying and
who were not buying at the early stage of the season.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
That's next.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Unfollow the money. It's vsen D Sports Betting network.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
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(34:09):
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Speaker 2 (34:19):
Major League Baseball today. It is a very busy card, including,
by the way, the annual Patriots Day game for the
Red Sox, which starts in a couple of hours. Here
for those of you watching and listening to this show
live their nemesis, the Yankees have the most wins in
Major League Baseball at twelve and four. They're playing the
(34:40):
Blue Jays today in Toronto. It's Louis Heel versus Chris Bassett.
Bassett small favorite here Yankees. You can find at even
money in this spot. I want to go to war here.
I want to bet the best team in baseball at
this point, and even money Blue Jays. I mean, the
struggles continue with them. I know they won yesterday, but
the bats very alarmed with the lineup so far for Toronto, and.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
I think give make the argument for Luis there that
maybe he's being a little undervalued. Two starts, three flat ERA,
but a two eighty one fielding independent expected era's under two.
Like he's been freaking lights out. The command's kind of
been walky, but he strikes out a ton of dudes
in terms of the K right right, balancing that out,
So think you probably I don't know, man, I hate
this Yankees tam because I've got the under and they
got off to a really good starts. Yeah, I hope
(35:21):
they lose. I'll just play that with there to me.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
By the way, when you look at early season numbers
like that you just threw out there with heel Man,
how much stock do you put into that at this
point of the season. Like there are certain guys I
would look at again, it happened yesterday. Blake Snell rough one.
He had no spring training, yep, so this is basically
his spring training right now. You expected a guy like that,
I mean, hell, he didn't even sign with his team
until a couple of weeks ago. You would expect somebody
(35:44):
like that to struggle. He'll get better throughout the season.
How many starts will it take? I'm not ready to
bet Blake still next time. But I'm also I don't
think Luis Hill is going to put up this good
of numbers the entire year. But do I want to
bet against some today against the Bluejays team that struggles
to hit the ball?
Speaker 1 (35:59):
No, not really know. And I think too when it
comes to like some of the early season stuff. And
I wrote a little bit about this on Thursday for
the first five innings piece. You're looking for more like So,
what I like to do is I think a lot
of people do.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Right.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
You look at the ear then you look at the
underlying metrics for him, and you try to find the
discrepancies and play on them. But you're always looking for
reasons why. I don't think you want to just blindly
bet those differences. So for me, a good example is
a guy like Hunter Brown. So like, Hunter Brown is awful,
and if you looked at the numbers, you would say, like, well,
you know the batting average of balls and play like
he's just getting really unlucky. Teams are batting over four
hundred against him. Yeah, you wonder know why because the
(36:30):
average EXI velocity is like one hundred miles an hour. Yeah,
they were given am hard contact like crazy, So like
that's they think. What you're looking for is you're looking
for those discrepancies, but you're also looking for the reasons why.
And if you find strong enough reasons, I think you
can kind of just pounce on those things. Yeah, Hunter
Browns stings Yankees most wins at twelve. Right behind them
the Dodgers with eleven. They lost last night to the
pod Race, tied with the Pirates at eleven and five.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
Overall. Pittsburgh is plus money against the Mets today and
it opened up around minus one thirteen. Adrian Houser and
the Mets, he's non minus one twenty three. You can
get Martine Perez at like plus one thirteen at this point.
Is that good enough to back the Pirates today?
Speaker 1 (37:09):
I feel like the Pirates are due potentially to kind
of fall from I mean we saw this last year, right,
we were the twenty and tenth, the first thirty.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
They got off to a great April last year yep.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
No. Like for me, it's just when they walk a lot,
they're actually I think, are they like top five? Yeah,
their second Actually in walk rate, they've been great, but
they strikeout a lot. They've been pretty good. They're getting
pretty lucky on balls and play. I feel like there's
a point where you're going to come back down to
earth and does that start to play consistently here? Now
The question is we're still talking small sample size, so
you could continue to do this. But I feel like
(37:39):
I'm looking for more opportunities to go against Pittsburgh than
I think back then. There's a lot of signs that
they're playing a little bit above their head. Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
I did not rush out to bet that team to
win the National League Central because last week or about
ten days ago, they were still plus eleven to fifty
I believe, or twelve to one. I did not add
that one to the portfolio. Also, I think that it's
just that division can be had by almost any of
those teams.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Oh yeah, I mean I like the coming into this.
I like the Cubs a lot. Now, Steel we don't
know you, we don't know the future Justiceteel obviously with
what's going on as hamstring, but like their lineup can
be effective. They're getting good pitching. You know, the Cardinals
lineup hasn't been great, but they can still be pretty good. Now,
I think that that thing's going to be a slavery knocker.
I think the entire way through and the all of
a sudden, the Brewers their lineup looks awesome. How about that?
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Yeah, I did not expect that coming into the season.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
And like their numbers are kind of tight, like they
look like they're going to be good and consistently good.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
They're kind of mashing the ball.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Yeah, Like the joke was coming in, like the Brewers
just want to win every game one nothing. Sure, that's
not the case. They continue to kind of just smack
the cover off the ball.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
I'm pleasantly surprised by that. So I mentioned this early year.
The Red Sox playing a very early game today for PE.
So they get the Guardians right, and this number is
all over the board, but it's been going up a
little bit. Are the Boston Red Sox sneaky good?
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Is it possible? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (38:54):
They are sitting right now in the American League East
at nine and seven. They're a half a game back
of the oriel sitting in third place as we speak.
The one trepidation I would have, but buying in they
did get the a's, you know right away in the season,
your Angels, they were taken apart by the it's a
huge series win, come on against the Orioles. But they
played the Angels twice. I mean that's world series with
(39:16):
champion Angels of course. Yeah, yeah, so that I'm a
little scared there. But and the Guardians are pretty good overall.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Yeah. I think Boston, like I always figured Boston would
kind of be like a like, I think we all
kind of figured they'd be a decent offensive team, right sure,
it was just whether or what you were going to
get over the large sample size when it comes to pitching. Now,
I do think like when you look at something like
they strike out a ton, so you don't really like that,
Like overquart of their appearances, they're striking out, they're walking
at a pretty decent rate, but not something insane. I
think that maybe that's the worry, is that that kind
(39:44):
of falls off. But I think for what the expectations
were for them, I think they're better than what we
thought they were going to be for sure. Okay, agreed.
Speaker 2 (39:51):
Now, I mentioned this in a recent shows here on
the network that betting the cy Young Award. To me,
it's a lot of fun because you, basically, I like
the way Mike Palm said it here at CIRCA, you
have action almost every single day because your pitcher is
going to go sometimes twice a week, so you have
action essentially every time that your pitcher goes. But basically
(40:12):
you have action every other day because you want to
fade the guys who are going to be in competition
to win that award. But with all of these injuries,
I am slow to going nuts with adding guys. Your
guy read Debt Mers On the Angels. They are seven
and eight right now, they are a half a game
back of Texas for first place in the West. That
(40:32):
division looks completely bonkers at this point of the season.
Red Debt Meers has basically a one era. He's got
the highest strikeout per nine rate right now in baseball
as a starting pitcher. He's definitely got great case stuff.
This is not an aberration with that. Could that guy
be in the mix to win a Cy Young even
(40:52):
if the Angels win let's say seventy four seventy five games.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
I mean, I think he can. We've got some precedent
right that, you know that doesn't really matter to an
individual performance. Yeah, the strike one number is gonna be awesome,
and like he's it doesn't seem that it's going to
be anything like that's unsustainable. He's changed things. He's throwing
his fastball more, his change of the way. The rate
at which he's using his change up has increased. It's
one of his highest rate of pitches now that he's using.
You mentioned like the way that he can blow by guys.
(41:17):
The rate in which he's inducing swings that misses inside
the strike zone is so much higher. I think so.
And like the Angels have done a pretty like low key,
sneaky job in developing some of these guys to be
pretty decent pitchers. And like we like we'll see what
happens with As we were talking about why why am
I blanking on my to this animal is going today.
But the guy that just a sil seth, Yeah that
(41:38):
just went on. I l with the inflammation. But like
there's signs that he's going to be pretty solid too.
I know, I don't think that there's any reason why
he wouldn't believe it's for me, it was him or
you know, Expencer turnbulls off to an awesome start. Yeah,
and he's still flowed around like one hundred to one here.
If you look at some of the numbers, two, like
you know, the fielding independence floating right around three. Looks
like he can be kind of sustainable. Turnbull has been
great for the Philly so far too.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
Yeah, So I'm pretty convinced as well, like a player
on a team we don't need. The wins really aren't
going to matter that much anymore in Major League Baseball
when it comes to the awards. So it's going to
be the overall metrics and the numbers and how good
a guy is overall. He can't control whose teammates are,
so what is record, what the record is in his starts?
That would help too, right if they're a bad team,
but they're winning his games more often. The biggest problem
(42:18):
I have for Reed Deptmers is no more Otani on
the team. I just don't know if you figure they're
not going to be that good this year overall, maybe
they could surprise.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
I doubt it, But Out's gonna get traded of the deadline.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
That's not gonna happen. I'll never trade this guy, evidently,
But will Deptmers do enough? Like will he ever be
able to get into the national narrative? That's my biggest
doubt about yours.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
But I also think, like, are there going to be
voters who are just like not like even if he's
sitting there with like, you know, like a two three
era near the end of the year and team case
per nine. Sure, yeah, but will they just be like
now the team stinks, like I feel like pitchers are good,
like Cy Young is a good enough individual war that
you can overlook something like that. But to your point,
I mean, dude, the Angels. The biggest example what you're
(42:59):
talking about, CHOEO. Toney played for the Angel swat six years.
They were trotting him out on Thursday Night football with
the Rams like he just got to LA for the
first time. Yeah, they had no idea that he'd been
there in their backyard the entire time. They're giving up jerseys,
everybody's clapping, he'd been there for six years. The Angels
have no pull when it comes to some of the narrative, No, none,
And that was with him. Now you're asking for detmors
(43:21):
to get that another guy who was off to a
great start, Paul Blackburn. Again, DA's might win sixty four games.
Who knows he hasn't allowed to run yet. Yep, eras
at zero point. I'm guessing that's going to regress a
little bit. But here's one more realistic guy. Was he Burials? Dude?
Is it possible? Is the turnaround real?
Speaker 2 (43:39):
I love his stuff, always have, but I think it's
never really panned out overall.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
I think one of the big changes I was looking
at some of his numbers earlier. I think of what
is using his fastball like a little bit more? And
I don't know he's I'm with you. I have believed,
but it's never really been their consistency. But consistently it
looks really good though.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
In fact, over the years it's like trying to find
spots on a day to day basis to fade him
how you can, but ah, he.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
Some kind of. It's a small sample size regardless for
a full season for starting pitchers, you just got to
maintain it. For for a smaller sample size over the
course of the year, it's do it. Tom Burns going
to join the show up next.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
He covers the NBA Mad Dog Sports Radio on Series XM,
who does he like in the playing games and in
the first round will ask him next year on Vison
I always follow the money. That's why I say you
always follow. Yeah. Yeah. This is Follow the Money with
Mitch Moss and Paully Howard on Vson. Welcome in.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
It is Follow the Money here on Vson, the Sports
Betty Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings
Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel. This week, PAULI
is on vacation. We're live in downtown Las Vegas from
the Circa Resort and Casino. And the NBA's regular season
is finally over with which means we get to play
(00:31):
in games tomorrow and Wednesday night. We also have the
first round playoff series numbers available and at DraftKings. The
menu at DraftKings for everything is gigantic and they did
not mess around at all with the NBA playoffs as well.
Like to bet these series, you can find pretty much
anything that you're looking for and they put them up
almost immediately. No, they're up a bang, just like that.
So let's begin in the Western Conference. My prediction not
(00:54):
so much for the series at this point, but my
prediction is going to be, and I think yours as well, right,
is going to be You're not going to find too
many people make the case for the Clippers to beat
the Mavericks in this series. No, and I say that
because Dallas has been red hot, and I think when
ESPN sends out like to I'll use them as the
example here. I think when they send out their predictions overall,
(01:17):
they probably have between like fifteen and twenty people at
the network give their predictions. My guess is going to
be it's going to be something in the fifteen to
two range sure of people picking the Mavericks compared to
people picking the Clippers.
Speaker 1 (01:30):
Yeah, I think so. I think that we also and
to be fair too, because we've seen this series price
some spots open the Clippers as a small underdog DraftKings
open them up a small like dollar twenty favorite. It's
not like about a pick and there. We don't know
what's happening with Kawhi Leonard. That's like the big thing
that hangs over this series. Now. The Clippers have said
the reports are Mri was clean, He's fine. I will
(01:51):
also remind everybody that last year they lied about his
flat out lied about his knee right he allegedly injured
in Game one, and that went over. The Phoenix played
Game two without popping up on the injury report, and
then Game three was out, and then they said he
heard it in Game one. So I wouldn't trust them
as far as you could throw them, but I will
say this, if if he is healthy, let's just let's
(02:14):
assume the truth. Then let's just say that he's going
to be out there healthy and ready to go for
Game one of this series. The Clippers can win this series.
They should be favored to win this series. And there's
kind of this weird like this thought that the Mavericks
and Luka Doncic owned the Los Angeles Clippers. They got
winning a record against the last three seasons. They're two
to zero against them in the postseason. You know, the
(02:35):
Dallas Mavericks and the Mavericks have gotten much better. And
for me, that's the fascinating part. You mentioned how good
they are. So their new starting lineup, Luka Doncich, Kyrie Irving,
Derek Jones, Junior PJ. Washington, Daniel Gafford at about four
hundred possessions total play together, Mitch a plus fifteen point
nine net rating and the most impressive part at defensive rate,
and it gives him just barely over a point per possession, Like,
that's how good they've been. And that, for me is
(02:57):
where it starts because the reason why I like playoff
basketball so much, it's all about those matchups. So like,
if you're the Clippers in past years, each zu watch
has been eating alive by Luka Doncic. He picks on
him every possession down the floor. Could you play small ball?
Because if you put PJ. Tucker in there, well then
all of a sudden, Daniel Gaffer's gonna catching lobs all
over the place, absolutely destroying you. And so the intricacies
(03:17):
of those matchups, what they're going to do, I'm absolutely
fascinated by what the series is going to be.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
So people that make the case for the Mavericks, I
think they're also going to say it's going to be
maybe a five or six game series.
Speaker 1 (03:27):
I'm not going to buy into that.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
However, you can bet the Mavericks minus one and a
half games at DraftKings plus one fifty five, and you're right.
If you go back to like March eleventh, that was
the game against the Balls where it really flipped for
this Mavericks team. They blew out the Bulls in that
spot and that's when the defense really just looked like
it did a total turnaround. They're basically the best team
in the NBA, yes, right, since that since that point.
(03:49):
But if Kawhi, that's the biggest if of the entire playoffs,
probably if Kawhi plays total game changer. If not, they're
not going to win the series. In my opinion, and
I ran this you last night. I don't like laying
big prices. However, the Mavericks plus two and a half
games is minus four seventy five. I can no, I
(04:11):
totally agree with what everything that you just said. I
can see the Clippers winning the series. In fact, if
Kawhi place, I think they're going to. But I don't
think the Clippers are going to beat them in a
sweep or a five game series.
Speaker 1 (04:20):
No, I think.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
I think if the Clippers win this series, it's going
to be six or seven.
Speaker 1 (04:24):
You can get two. I know it's minus.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
Nobody ever wants to talk about lame big numbers, me included,
but minus four seventy five on plus two and a
half games, I don't hate it.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
No, I don't at all, especially when you look at
the way that the Clippers are going to pull up
the exact number. But the way that they've been playing defensively,
We'll call it like since the post the post All
Star Break hasn't really been great for him. Post All
Star Break, they are twenty fourth and non garbage time
defensive efficiency. Now, their offense has still been very good,
but their defense just hasn't been there. And so when
you're going to have these certain mismatches that Luka Doncis
(04:54):
is going to be able to pick on, well, you
yourself are going to be able to do that too.
Like each one of these series that they had played
with them was extremely tight. I remember the last time
they played they were down three to two. Going back
to Dallas, Kawhi Leonard scored like forty five points, was incredible.
Pushed at the seven, they eventually won that series two. Like, no,
these are gonna be hard, tight, like fought. This is
a series in which, even if Kawi Leonard plays, I'm
sure the Clippers will probably only be like a dollar
(05:16):
dollar thirty dollars forty five favorite. I would argue it
should be higher, but either way, it's going to be
a tight series. If Kuhi is going to be out
there and down to the wire, I would agree with
that sentiment. At all.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
It sounds to me though, like you don't have a
bet on this yet. No, because you need to know.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
I need to know now, and I think too instead
of because you said, what now, what was it? The
Clipper Mavericks plus two and a half games plus two
and a half games, that's the what's the series total?
Because you could also do that, right, I think it's yeah,
you can. Oh they got everything. It's absolutely incredible. So
you can go over you know a certain amount of games,
like if something like that and that nature, I think
you would totally look at something there in terms of
total games played for the series, and they totally problem.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Five and a half overs minus one ninety five.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
There you go, I see something like that.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
You could also find over six and a half at
a pretty nice plus price.
Speaker 1 (05:56):
Right, So essentially asking yea is this game? Yes? No?
Will it go seven? And I think that it's a
very plausible reality.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Okay, so this is incredible. Great tweet from at Powertrip Bets.
Powertrip is a morning show in Minneapolis on Kfan. The
Minnesota Timberwolves have been underdogs in an NBA longest twenty
two consecutive playoff games. The street goes back to May nineteen,
two thousand and four and the Sacramento King's Western Conference
(06:25):
semi final series. They opened up a two point favorite
against the Suns in Game one. Will they go off
the favorite here in this game? They're not even the
favorite to win the series?
Speaker 1 (06:34):
And here they are. They've been one of the best
teams in the NBA the entire year. I mean, that's
the fascinating dynamic, right Like, yes, two is a coin flip.
It's barely being favored, but your favorite to win your
first game, and yet you're a small underdog for the
series against Phoenix. And I'll say this, look, I think
from a matchup standpoint Minnesota, it probably did not want
to see Phoenix. Like when you have guys who can
are elite shot makers no matter who is defending them,
(06:57):
that's a problem. And as good as Mike Conley is
to defensively, he's very sound. He's not shutting down Devin
Booker or anything. And maybe that's Andreward's assignment when we've
seen him play in the past. That's kind of the
guy who's picked up. But you know, the way I've
been putting in mitches, the market has been waiting for
the opportunity to bet on Phoenix to ratchet up that
power rating. I was hoping they were going to get
(07:18):
Oklahoma City so I could lay the crap out of
a very short price for the Oklahoma City Thunder against Phoenix,
because I just I think the market is too high
here on the Suns, and I, like I find myself
gravitating towards Minnesota. Like I get the matchup as poor.
I get they played them poorly the last few times
that they have played them as well. But you give
a guy like Finch, Chris Finch, their head coach, time
to get ready with the defensive scheme, and you get
(07:39):
a Suns team that, yes, down the stretch, has played better,
but over the grand scheme of things, has also fallen
flat on their face multiple times. Oh, they're losing to
the Clippers the way they did in that game against Phoenix.
Remember two weeks ago, Shake Gills Alexander gets ruled out,
Jaalen Williams isn't playing. They go to Oklahoma City, get
boat raced by the Oklahoma City Thunder. There's so many
different spots in which this team has fallen short, but
(08:01):
the market's been waiting for them to be so good.
I want to say that Phoenix is overvalued coming into
the series.
Speaker 2 (08:06):
Okay, so you're holding Timberwolves at a nice big number
to win the Western Conference this year. You grab that
right away this season. What is your advice here for
others who are in the same boat. It sounds to
me like you almost want to add more Minnesota in
the series.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Part of me wants to. I mean, the perfect thing
is that you can't do anything right. You can't do
anything now at the very especially if if you have
something to win the Western Conference at the minimum, you
need them to make it to a Western Conference semifinals.
You need it to be the second round. So you
could take a piece off of this, but you don't
want to start taking things, you know, stay taking out
of your stake. You'll three rounds in because by the
time you gets the Western confence finding do it right,
(08:40):
you can't do it. So that's part of my push
and pull with this as well, is I feel like
there is some value here in Minnesota, but as somebody
who already has something on them do, I just want
to sit back and wait and see what's going to
happen with the series, because I've already got an investment
that says I think they are better than what the
market believes.
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Okay, if you did not have the Wolves till thirty
to one, you'd betting them here.
Speaker 1 (09:00):
Yeah, I think so, and I'd be fascinated to see
we got a couple of days, right obviously until the
series begins, and what the market does with this, right,
I mean, we're talking about Phoenix minus one fifteen. Does
it get up to the point where you might get
you know, even money plus one oh five plus one
ten on Minnesota by the time we get to tip off.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
Yeah, how about the Eastern Conference, the Bucks and the
Pacers play in the first round.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
It's the three versus the six.
Speaker 2 (09:21):
It did not go well for the Bucks against Indy
in the regular season, and yet the Bucks are at
DraftKings a two forty five favorite the Pacers plus one
ninety five on the take back.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
By the way, so this is I tweeted this out yesterday.
How about this little nugget. Average closing total in the
regular season series between the Bucks and the Pacers. So
they played five games, let me guess two forty eight
and a half two fifty four point nine that was
the average. The average closing total this one opened up
for Game one two thirty eight and a half. Yeah,
so like we've come a long way. But what I'm
interested in is while the Bucks are one and four
(09:54):
against Indiana, they haven't played since January third. Yeah, it's
been a long time. They have not faced pascalci with
the Indiana Pacers, and the Pacers have not played them
since Doc Rivers has taken over. And while it hasn't
gone particularly well, Doc has a losing record. The one
thing you could say, Mitch is they've gotten better defensively.
With Adrian and Griffin, they had a defensive rating a one
to seventeen point eight. They gave up one hundred and
(10:16):
nineteen point two points every one hundred plays off of
live rebounds defensively with Doc Rivers one hundred and fourteen
point two, so about three point six points fewer per
one hundred possessions defensively overall and off a live rebounds
are transition defense has gotten way better, in fact, five
point one points fewer per one hundred plays off of
live rebounds. So you're playing an Indiana Pacers team that
is not playing as fast anymore because Pascal Siakam likes
(10:38):
to play through the post and they're effective, but they've
gotten better defensively. Giannis again is the big thing, right
is he going to play? If you take Damian Lillard
at his word after he got hurt, Lillard told them
that he suffered the same injury it caused it it
took two weeks for him to recover. That would put
you right at the start of this series. And if
Giannis isn't going to be available, I understand the price
(10:59):
moving and favor of Indiana. But if you're telling me
Giannis is going to be there at started game one,
I don't know. I feel like we might get to
a point where, if the price gets low enough, you
could talk me into getting back here in Indiana or
excuse me, I'm Milwaukee, you know. So.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
I was watching the NBA show last night, the Playoff
special on ESPN, and I totally agree with what Stephen A.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Smith said.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
He says that just by watching it doesn't look like
Damian Lillard even wants to be there.
Speaker 1 (11:23):
Sure, and we should know too, By the way, since
Tyre's Aliburton's injury. Remember he got hurt really bad. He
went for twenty three points a game, essentially twenty four
to just seventeen. Yeah, forty nine percent, shooting from the
four forty five percent. Since the injury, he's not been
the same.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
NFL Draft up next, It's coming up Thursday, Next Thursday.
Could this be a tell for who this team is
drafting in the top ten?
Speaker 1 (11:57):
This is follow the Money, I said, folks. It's still
open for free, so check it out now. If you
use betting splits as part of your handicapping tools, well
you can check them out for free over at vson
dot com. Slash Splitz page is still open. You don't
even need a pro subscriptions. You could check out where
the money in bets are moving today in Major League
(12:18):
Baseball and future events, as well as you get a
early look at the play in games in the NBA.
Check it out now Vson dot com slash.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
Plit April is awesome. Next Thursday, already we get the
NFL track.
Speaker 1 (12:27):
I can't believe it came quickly and slowly at the
same time.
Speaker 2 (12:29):
You're right, yep, okay, So the quarterback market here in
the first round, the right here you go. This gets
you fired up more than anything I believe. So here
in Las Vegas at Station Casinos, the prop opened up
a long time ago. I want to say that was
either late February or early March.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Yeah, Chuck coping U pretty early.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
He didy it did a great job with all these markets, right,
and that I think peaked late last week. Over four
and a half quarterbacks go in the first round. What
was the biggest number you saw.
Speaker 1 (12:58):
On the overs? Like minus three?
Speaker 2 (13:00):
I want to say, I think I saw minus three fifty.
Speaker 1 (13:02):
Okay, yeah, somewhere in that range. And that range.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
So the under was plus two sixty, that's for sure
the high point. Yep, Yeah, that's coming down here. Also
at DraftKings now over four and a half quarterbacks is
minus two dollars.
Speaker 1 (13:14):
The under is plus one sixty this morning.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
So you've been saying this since the I think I
think the college football season was still going on. Why
you were basically saying, I can't wait to bet the
under on the quarterback prop.
Speaker 1 (13:24):
Well, so this is my thing for for years now.
I have I've bet under on quarterbacks in the first
round every single year since the draft is good for you,
I have not good and my whole thing. And for
those who don't know, so we've had seven years now,
this will be the eighth year in the last seven years,
six years we've got under the total for quarterbacks in
the first round. And as I always point out, there's
a caveat the one year it went over, that was
(13:46):
Lamar Jackson's year, the number actually closed five. So if
you got the right number, you're actually sitting at six
zero to one to the under if you've played this
the right way. Since NFL Draft betting has been a thing,
and my thing has just always been, like, you know,
we we give quarterbacks too much credit right when it
comes to the conversations around them. We also overvalue where
these guys might end up going, and you get like
perfect examples, you know, Mitch the I always think the
(14:09):
perfect example is the Malik Willis Kenny Pikett year, right
where everybody their mother was telling you, you know, I watched
these guys, I don't think their first round picks, and
yet the market's like that three and a half shaded
to the over one guy goes in the first one.
I think was that also, Desmond Ritter, Yes, as Rider,
I think it was the Matt Croud draft as well.
If I remember, I think you're right. I mean, you
go back to last year and and it's even around
the mock drafts and the information that are out there.
(14:30):
There's headlines Will Levis Indianapolis cults right, that was supposed
to be the connection. Will Levis was supposed to go
number four to Indianapolis a year ago.
Speaker 2 (14:38):
Next week it took off on Reddit, thing he might
go number one overall. Mike told my Milkman that time
to fill up.
Speaker 1 (14:46):
Will Yeah, Will Levis is telling people's going number one overall.
And by the way, you obviously the market fell for it.
But this has always just kind of been my thing,
is we kind of we do this all the time,
and sure enough it happened again this year. So I've
actually been very like some alone on this where I
actually kind of feel like we're doing this again with
JJ McCarthy, where I don't think he's actually going to
go as high as we expect. You know, a lot
of people keep going, you know, one, two, three, four,
(15:07):
it could be quarterbacks. We're starting to see some pushback
on that. Dan Brugler, for those who don't know, works
the Athletic, one of the more respected NFL draft guys
out there, came out with his beast. He's got JAJ
McCarthy as actually twenty first select you know, twenty first. Overall,
he's got him in a first second grade, first round,
second round grade, so I think he's going to go
a little bit later than we expect. But guys like
bo Nick and Michael Pennock Junior solidly second to third
(15:27):
round guys. According to Brugler. You see guys like Todd mcshan.
I know you guys played the audio right last week
where he's telling Ryan Risillo. Everybody that I have spoken
to has a what at best a second round grade
on bo Nix and they're calling him a backup y
if they all think he's going to be a backup
Pennix polarizing, but again consistently by the way I think
it's crazy, but consistently behind Bonnicks in a lot of
(15:48):
the different things I don't get right. But either way,
I have become more and more because of the returns
over the last six years, but also just because as
more information comes out and as we get closer to
the draft, it's becoming more and more likely that again
Bo Nick and Michael Pennix Junior are going to be
second to third round selections. And I think it would
it just makes more sense let me ask you this.
Speaker 2 (16:10):
If a book posted five and a half quarterbacks and
the underwa like, how high would you bet that to
the under?
Speaker 1 (16:17):
I mean that's to me the value would be insane
on five and a half?
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Would you go would you go like under you would
easily bet like minus three dollars?
Speaker 1 (16:24):
Yeah? Yeah? Would you bet like minus five dollars on that? Yeah?
If you have the bank, will do it? Yes. I
mean because I was texting with Doug Cazering about this
and he brought this up to me too. Where on
five and a half, Like, given the way the market opened,
theoretically you should be opening that like minus one thousand
on an under or something like that, Like if you
really look at how that should be priced. So oh yeah,
Like if for whatever reason you've got five and a
(16:45):
half under minus like three p fifty, I think the
actual like value in that percentage would be astronomical. Here's
what I'm gonna do.
Speaker 2 (16:52):
Because there are so many books, I don't have access
to all of them, But if anybody sees that number
out there, can you please tweet the show with the
screen grab of that at vsen Live at Mitch Moss Radio.
Speaker 1 (17:03):
He's at me JVT.
Speaker 2 (17:05):
I'm looking specifically for how many quarterbacks will go in
the first round. If a book has five and a half,
I'm curious of what the juice is as we sit
here now a week and a half before the event
takes place. Now, this is a good tweet from Steve
Palozzolo Pro Football Focus. He pointed out, did the math
on this, looked at all the numbers New Falcons head
coach Raheem Morris. His Rams defense had three hundred and
(17:27):
fifty five snaps where at least one edge defender dropped
into coverage last year, most in the league. He broke
down the most coverage snaps among top edges this year
in the draft. Look at this, Dallas Turner sticks out
like a sore thumb. It's two hundred and thirty eight
JVT and nobody else is even This is like he's
lapping the field by five times the amount.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
Yes, so he seems like, you know, at this timely reference,
he seems like a hand in glove fit, right, you know,
with Raheem Morris. So when you look at what Raheem
Morris wants to do with some of his ed rushers,
I think it makes a lot of sense. And by
the way, like I've seen two mock drafts that have
Jared Verse at that position in terms of for Atlanta
instead of a guy like Dallas Turner.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
Land Zerline one of them, and he said, I'm going
to plant my flag on Verse going eighth overall to
the falcon.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
Sure, and look it makes sense, but this to me
pushed it over the edge. So I added a little bit.
But by the way, the numbers move, I know was
texting about you this last week, Dallas Turner, to go
eighth overall one point was plus three forty. It's now
plus two to fifty to go eighth over It came
down the much humber, So it came down almost you know,
a full buck. But like I think that's still worth it.
When you were talking about again just like a plus
price and going back to what we're talking about with
the quarterbacks, you know, like betting under at plus two
(18:35):
sixty totally worth it when you have the history that
we do with quarterbacks. Same thing here where you have
this at least fit. You have a team that's clearly
looking for an edge rusher that a lot of people
think are going to go with that direction. You have
a coach that likes to use his edge rushers in
certain situations, and you have an edge rusher coming out
that has experience dropping into coverage and doing those things.
And I thought at plus three forty, I actually still
(18:56):
think of plus two fifty, that's still worth putting something
on here. With Turner going eight, and by the way,
specifically it's Turner to go eighth overall. So if the
Falcons trade back and draft them, obviously get screwed because
you're not going to be there. I don't think there's
any reason for the Falcons, who are going to get
their first pick of the best defensive player, to move
out of that spot.
Speaker 2 (19:13):
I don't know if they're going to trade out right,
you know, I don't think that's going to be a
team that does.
Speaker 1 (19:16):
Maybe they do.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
Maybe I'm wrong on that, because somebody trade's gonna happen.
I think they're going to stay put at number eight.
You're going to get your pick of every defensive player.
And if you're exactly right, and if they do like
the edge position to be selected by the Falcons, I
saw at minus two fifty, yep. So if it's going
to be an edge player, if that's if it's that
big of a favorite. Well, it's probably going to be
Turner or Verse.
Speaker 1 (19:34):
Yeah, well it's so cool. It's crazy how they stuff
like this shapes markets. So, for example, if you actually
look at the first defensive player drafted market, the three
edge guys are actually all the top three picks. So
it's like, so it's Dallas Turner, it's Jared Verse, and
it's layout to a lot to who are those top
three selections because we just know that he Atlanta seems
really likely. Yet they're going to have the first defensive
(19:55):
player off the board and they want an edge rusher,
so it's more than likely going to be one of
these three guys. I'll give you another one too.
Speaker 2 (20:01):
You can find the first position drafted by the Chargers
offensive lineman is minus one twenty five.
Speaker 1 (20:08):
That number. Actually, I like it so much it scares me. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
I mean, is Jim Harball the biggest bser in the
NFL by his comments two weeks ago where he basically
said he was talking glowingly about the offensive line and
how important it is to build success and they're going
to run the football. Greg Roman's a new offensive coordinator
based on his history with other teams, they love to
run the ball. Everybody just thinks because there's no more
(20:32):
Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are automatically going to go
wide receiver fifth or wherever they might pick in the
first round. If they trade back, that's to me, it's
not going to be the case. To me, it's going
to be offensive lineman.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
Yeah, and I also think I get I would say
the only the reality in which they don't is if
Marvin Harrison Junior is their five, right, if they actually
go quarterbacks for the first four picks, which I don't
think is going to happen, and then you sitting there
if you're the Chargers and the best wide receiver prospect
in a while, so just sitting there, that's probably where
you get burned. But I would agree with you, and
I would actually say two, if you trade back, I
would say that increase is the likelihood of them potentially
(21:04):
going after one of these offensive linement. It's a deep class.
I mean, that's by the way, that's also one of
the ones. I bet over nine and a half offensive
lineman first round. About I haven't seen anything less than
ten in like every mock everything or more.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Yeah, Okay, how about the cornerbacks, prop, did you do
anything with that number? No, I always tho those are
the three big ones that are available, the offensive line,
the cornerbacks, well, the wide receivers are in there as well,
along with the qbs.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
Yeah, the common number that I've seen in these mocks
that I've put together is five. For the corners. On
the low end, it's four, but like five is the
most common number that you see in the first round,
and I think you're looking at five and a half
as the number for them. Yeah. Yeah, so I think
I guess you'd lean under because it doesn't seem like
there's it seems to be strong, but it seems to
be top heavy, also attempted by a big price on
under safeties under a half. The only kid that might
(21:55):
come in is I think it's the safety out of Minnesota.
I think, yeah, they might sneak in there.
Speaker 2 (22:00):
I've seen actually some mocks of the Packers taking him there. Really,
who knows, because the Packers pick has been all over
the map. Yeah, either offensive lineman cornerback generally is the
number one pick, but also people are making the case
for linebacker as well for Green Bay. So you still
like the Titans offensive lineman, even though it's minus three dollars.
Speaker 1 (22:16):
Now, yeah, they'll be worth it sub spots or as
high as minus five hundred bas big, Okay, given what
you've seen the mad given where the market's going, if
you can find like three dollars or better. Again, in
the NFL's draft, you mentioned it. You don't like the
lay point, and the NFL draft is based off information,
you're gonna be laying prices a lot.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
I thought that was worth it, all right, So up
next we're gonna do door number one or door number two.
JBT is going to be great on this. He has
to pick one. Which quarterback is going as a first rounder.
We'll ask him coming up next.
Speaker 1 (22:51):
This is part of the money on fe said, it's
time to play everyone's favorite follow the Money Game live
from the Vson Studios. Hey guys, here he lets the
dogs out. This is door number one. What is high score? Me?
Who high scores a bell? What's that? Meanes? I break it?
(23:15):
Or door number two? Yes, studs, good day, sir. Here's
Mitch Moss and Pauli Howard.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
So Paully John the patient, Jonathan von Tobol sitting in
this week. This is going to be a fun one
to expand on the NFL Draft. Both of these are
up at DraftKings, kind of telling you, by the way,
with the prices of my opinion.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
So door number one and you have to bet one
of these.
Speaker 2 (23:38):
Door number one bow knicks under thirty two and a
half with the draft position is plus one thirty. Michael
Pennock's under thirty two and a half is plus one ten.
Which door do you want to go through?
Speaker 1 (23:47):
All right? So if I have to pick one, I
think i'd go with door two. Like so, we we
had Tom McShay say that everybody that he's talked through
thinks Bonix second third round backup. He called panics polarizing,
which means obviously that means there's opinion on both ends
of the spectrum. And I also, I think Pennix is
better than bo Nicks. I'm kind of surprised at they're
pretty convinced that he's right. I've been kind of surprised
(24:08):
ford this whole process. The group think is that Bonix
is solidly ahead of Penix. I would disagree with that.
So I don't think either's going to happen. But if
I'm betting one of them, I'd rather go with Pennix.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
So you're telling me that the numbers here, the odds
are suggesting that bone he's favored to go over thirty
two and a half. Yep, Michael Pennix is favored to
go over thirty two and a half as well. And
yet four and a half quarterbacks over is favored to
go in the first round.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Yep. Does that correlate to you, Spencer Rattley, you're forgetting
about him?
Speaker 2 (24:38):
Oh yeah, yeah, silly me.
Speaker 1 (24:39):
First round thing. I'm telling you, man, the quarter of
the first round quarterbacks happens every year and you see
it in the coverage too when you see mock drafts.
What's the headline? Four quarterbacks top six, six quarterbacks top twelve.
Oh yeah, that's all it's about. You just got to
get that because you know what, I always make fun
of it because he's a funny name. If I were
to put out a mock draft and I were to
tell you that Jackson Powers Johnson goes the center for Oregon,
(25:02):
like nobody cares, right, of course, but you got to
get these quarterbacks in. So like that's it's such a
great example. And by the way, we were on the
air for vis in prime time when that Knixt position
that had DraftKings opened up. That went from like under
minus one twenty to over minus one p fifty within
an hour, and.
Speaker 2 (25:17):
They put it at thirty two and a half. That
was the opening number.
Speaker 1 (25:19):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (25:20):
There was another book, a national book that had and
I don't see it this morning.
Speaker 1 (25:24):
They may have yanked it.
Speaker 2 (25:25):
They had Nix's position at twenty six and.
Speaker 1 (25:27):
A half a little off. Yeah, it's a little off.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
You'll probably reassess, and posted it for number here.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
Sometimes sin it's kind of a od number because there's
nobody really around them right now. It's like tied to him,
which is kind of odd.
Speaker 2 (25:39):
So all these mocks that have had Nicks going twelve,
specifically the Broncos because of the Drew Brees connection. Right,
short white guy playing quarterback under Sean Payton.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
That's a little too convenient. It is well actually, and
I can I commend like mel Kiper so he had
a mock draft on it was March nineteenth, okay, and
he had he had him Bonex going twelve. But even
put in there, I don't think that he is a
first round talent, but I'm going to put him in here. Anyway,
because the Broncos need a quarterback. His latest mock draft
that came out about four days ago, he had somebody
(26:11):
else going I can't remember who was, but he put
in there. I can't do it anymore. He's not a
first round talent essentially, I'm paraphrasing. Okay, and so he
didn't have bonicks here. This is you're starting to see
this turn in terms of where we're at with these guys.
Speaker 2 (26:23):
I know, by the way, like this chatter of the
Broncos being one of those teams that could move up
ahead of the Vikings to take a quarterback because the
Vikings need one as well.
Speaker 1 (26:31):
They appear to be obsessed with J. G. McCarthy.
Speaker 2 (26:34):
They've made a move now in recent weeks, adding a
second first round pick where they could eventually move up
and take a guy that they would want higher than
where they're currently selecting. Did the Broncos want to go
down that path? They just did it for Russell Wilson
and clearly they you know, Sean Payton anyway thought it
was a ridiculous move.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
Yep. Well, and the other thing too is so you
don't have them any assets, you would sacrifice more assets
to go get this quarterback, then you would have none
to us to build around him as you move forward
in future years. And by the way, Sean Payton is
reportedly the second highest paid head coach in American sports
right not just the NFL. So if that's the case,
(27:12):
he's not on any rush in terms of a timeline.
So use your assets wisely, build up the roster, Go ahead,
roll with Jared Stidham for a year, see what happens.
And if you finish inside of the top five again,
well guess what. Then use that opportunity to go get
a quarterback. There were in no rush to make this happen.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
Now, that's solid logic, honestly, and so do they Just
at twelve though, to me is a complete reach for
either of these guys, including bon Nicks.
Speaker 1 (27:37):
Yep, and for Penix. I thought Adam brought up a
brilliant point at which I totally forgotten about. We talked
about all the injuries of the course of his year
he had. He had another injury at the end of
the regular season last year. He was not the same guy.
There's no way he gets a month off and then
comes back in the playoff and looks much better like
there is a there is something worried. And then again
with both of these guys, Mitch rookie year. At the
end of that, at the end of your rookie contract,
(27:59):
you're gonna be talking about into your thirties. That's not
pretty much or touch of your thirties. That's not what
you want for a quarterback at the end of his
rookie deal.
Speaker 2 (28:06):
Door number one the Max Holloway finish Saturday Night UFC
three hundred or door number two, a walk off winner
in any other sport well as.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
A pure alpha male who's knocked out many men in
his life. I've seen it. Yeah, but I'll go with
the door number two because I've been there and done
that with door number one. No, door number one, are
you serious, man, especially with the rush of the crowd
and everybody's screaming and doing all that just in that
moment and of course leading up to it too, where
they's true like a lot of people didn't think he
was gonna be able to do it. Oh, that was awesome.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
I'll go with the finish in my opinion, like that
win for at least a twenty four hour period, the
biggest ego on the planet for anybody.
Speaker 1 (28:45):
Yes, could have been Max Holloway.
Speaker 2 (28:47):
He could have strutted into any room in the world
with the cockiest right like look on his face attitude
out of anybody. Forget Scotty Cheffer running away with the masters.
It's Max Holloway finishing. He didn't have to do that,
by the way. He was going to win the fight, right,
and he decided let's go to war baby, and in
the final ten seconds are swinging for the fences and
he just I mean it's over with one second to go, yep.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
And to do that, like you know, over a fellow competitor,
the closest you'll get touch in the line, to take
in somebody's life, you know, just right there, eliminating their consciousness.
Speaker 2 (29:19):
Will never, unless you're a UFC or a boxer, will never.
I mean, what, what what's that feeling? Like?
Speaker 1 (29:25):
Want's try it out?
Speaker 2 (29:25):
I mean, I honestly don't want. They're not rooting to
kill somebody, obviously, but to actually finish the job like that, right.
Speaker 1 (29:34):
Oh man, fan hard not to think it, Oh j Joe.
Speaker 2 (29:36):
Door number one the Oklahoma City Thunder lose their first
round playoff series, or Door number two, they win the
West and yes, yes, it has to be one or
the other. Yeah, I know that's tough. That's a good one.
Speaker 1 (29:50):
I will go with let me double check to see
what this path looks like. Ooh, I'll go with door
number one because there is a reality. Say it ain't
so that the Lakers lose. Here's the real question. They're
not going to do it. But here's the real question.
If you're the Lakers, I know where you're going to go.
(30:11):
Do you tank this? Then you got to you risk it?
Then maybe you got to beat the Warriors. You gotta
you get a home game. You'll get a home games
I can play in. But you would get the opportunity
to take on a team that you were three and
one against and have absolutely man handled them, and they
read that needle.
Speaker 2 (30:25):
Right, they lose their playing game to the Pelicans, then
come back and in theory beat the Warriors.
Speaker 1 (30:31):
Yeah, I mean it would be right. It would be
the perfect because I don't think that I don't think
the Lakers want to see the Nuggets. I like the
Nugget team a lot. I think they match up well
with the Lakers. That everybody got, you know, all Randy
about ruer hatchemore reg guarding Nicole Yoakis for like five
seconds in the Western Conference Finals last year. If they
got swept, I I it's not going to happen, but
(30:51):
it would be kind of funny if it did. And
if what if they just lose They're only there one
point under. Yeah, so what if they just lose a
coin flip and then win the second game and then
you get okay, see and the who would you like
in that series matchup? Please? I think so too.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
They did very well against them in the regular season.
Speaker 1 (31:07):
Their side, they're just they have too much size for him.
This is uh on the air. It was after the
draft last year.
Speaker 2 (31:15):
I said, the team that you want you need to
bet on this upcoming season right now is Oklahoma City.
There was a book I grabbed it at sixty to
one to win the West ooh nice, back in June.
So it's been that money's been tied up for a
long time now. I am deathly afraid of that bet.
If they get the Lakers in Round one.
Speaker 1 (31:35):
Any of these other teams you'd rather see? If I would,
I would. You don't want the Lakers to fall to
eight and then get in door number one.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Jackson Holiday plus four to fifty to win the American
League Rooki of the Year or Door number two his
own teammate Colton Kowser. He was plus five point fifty
still yesterday until he went yard again, down to three
to one.
Speaker 1 (31:56):
I want to say Door number one only because with
these awards, for like preseason hype is is really important.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
I think, I mean, the narrative was already built in
for this game.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Yes, like he just has to come up and just
have an average an average season. Now I get hurt,
and I think he's probably gonna win this thing.
Speaker 2 (32:11):
I'll tell you though, this Cowsard he's been the spring
training that he had, Yep, it was absurd. He was
blistering hot, and it's actually carried over into the regular season,
which debt does not happen.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
For Homer's and thirty eight played appearances.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
Yeah, I mean he's he's forcing their hand because there
was going to be basically a platoon because they have
so much talent offensively and they don't want to rush
the young guys up.
Speaker 1 (32:31):
There's no way that this guy can sit. Although I
do think Jackson Holllett it ground it out in his
first bat, so he's probably a fraud.
Speaker 2 (32:37):
Yeah, he probably stinks. In fact, he finally got his
first head after like ten or eleven at bats. So
let's let's chill out here a little bit.
Speaker 1 (32:43):
Under the single a rookie ball, let him develop a
little bit. They will they have to make another move.
I would think for a pitcher, Oh, you can't. They
have too much young talent that needs to play. You
got to force the window open. You just you can't.
There's no way you can't do this. You would be
doing good disservice to the team, to the fans, everything.
I totally agree. They are good.
Speaker 2 (32:59):
I mean, we saw last year they were the one
seed and they didn't have enough pitching and.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Even some like even some of these rough series losses,
like I watched that whole series with the Royals. Man,
they were just it was just bad luck in terms
where they were hitting these balls. They're good, man, yeare
really freaking good. Ye.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
So up next, we will get into a very heavy
Major League Baseball card. Today we'll go for some of
the numbers on the card and who were buying and
who were not buying at the early stage of the season.
Speaker 1 (33:25):
That's next.
Speaker 2 (33:25):
Unfollow the money. It's vsen D Sports Betting network.
Speaker 1 (33:49):
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(34:09):
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Speaker 2 (34:19):
Major League Baseball today. It is a very busy card, including,
by the way, the annual Patriots Day game for the
Red Sox, which starts in a couple of hours. Here
for those of you watching and listening to this show
live their nemesis, the Yankees have the most wins in
Major League Baseball at twelve and four. They're playing the
(34:40):
Blue Jays today in Toronto. It's Louis Heel versus Chris Bassett.
Bassett small favorite here Yankees. You can find at even
money in this spot. I want to go to war here.
I want to bet the best team in baseball at
this point, and even money Blue Jays. I mean, the
struggles continue with them. I know they won yesterday, but
the bats very alarmed with the lineup so far for Toronto, and.
Speaker 1 (34:59):
I think give make the argument for Luis there that
maybe he's being a little undervalued. Two starts, three flat ERA,
but a two eighty one fielding independent expected era's under two.
Like he's been freaking lights out. The command's kind of
been walky, but he strikes out a ton of dudes
in terms of the K right right, balancing that out,
So think you probably I don't know, man, I hate
this Yankees tam because I've got the under and they
got off to a really good starts. Yeah, I hope
(35:21):
they lose. I'll just play that with there to me.
Speaker 2 (35:23):
By the way, when you look at early season numbers
like that you just threw out there with heel Man,
how much stock do you put into that at this
point of the season. Like there are certain guys I
would look at again, it happened yesterday. Blake Snell rough one.
He had no spring training, yep, so this is basically
his spring training right now. You expected a guy like that,
I mean, hell, he didn't even sign with his team
until a couple of weeks ago. You would expect somebody
(35:44):
like that to struggle. He'll get better throughout the season.
How many starts will it take? I'm not ready to
bet Blake still next time. But I'm also I don't
think Luis Hill is going to put up this good
of numbers the entire year. But do I want to
bet against some today against the Bluejays team that struggles
to hit the ball?
Speaker 1 (35:59):
No, not really know. And I think too when it
comes to like some of the early season stuff. And
I wrote a little bit about this on Thursday for
the first five innings piece. You're looking for more like So,
what I like to do is I think a lot
of people do.
Speaker 2 (36:09):
Right.
Speaker 1 (36:10):
You look at the ear then you look at the
underlying metrics for him, and you try to find the
discrepancies and play on them. But you're always looking for
reasons why. I don't think you want to just blindly
bet those differences. So for me, a good example is
a guy like Hunter Brown. So like, Hunter Brown is awful,
and if you looked at the numbers, you would say, like, well,
you know the batting average of balls and play like
he's just getting really unlucky. Teams are batting over four
hundred against him. Yeah, you wonder know why because the
(36:30):
average EXI velocity is like one hundred miles an hour. Yeah,
they were given am hard contact like crazy, So like
that's they think. What you're looking for is you're looking
for those discrepancies, but you're also looking for the reasons why.
And if you find strong enough reasons, I think you
can kind of just pounce on those things. Yeah, Hunter
Browns stings Yankees most wins at twelve. Right behind them
the Dodgers with eleven. They lost last night to the
pod Race, tied with the Pirates at eleven and five.
Speaker 2 (36:53):
Overall. Pittsburgh is plus money against the Mets today and
it opened up around minus one thirteen. Adrian Houser and
the Mets, he's non minus one twenty three. You can
get Martine Perez at like plus one thirteen at this point.
Is that good enough to back the Pirates today?
Speaker 1 (37:09):
I feel like the Pirates are due potentially to kind
of fall from I mean we saw this last year, right,
we were the twenty and tenth, the first thirty.
Speaker 2 (37:15):
They got off to a great April last year yep.
Speaker 1 (37:17):
No. Like for me, it's just when they walk a lot,
they're actually I think, are they like top five? Yeah,
their second Actually in walk rate, they've been great, but
they strikeout a lot. They've been pretty good. They're getting
pretty lucky on balls and play. I feel like there's
a point where you're going to come back down to
earth and does that start to play consistently here? Now
The question is we're still talking small sample size, so
you could continue to do this. But I feel like
(37:39):
I'm looking for more opportunities to go against Pittsburgh than
I think back then. There's a lot of signs that
they're playing a little bit above their head. Yeah, I don't.
Speaker 2 (37:47):
I did not rush out to bet that team to
win the National League Central because last week or about
ten days ago, they were still plus eleven to fifty
I believe, or twelve to one. I did not add
that one to the portfolio. Also, I think that it's
just that division can be had by almost any of
those teams.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Oh yeah, I mean I like the coming into this.
I like the Cubs a lot. Now, Steel we don't
know you, we don't know the future Justiceteel obviously with
what's going on as hamstring, but like their lineup can
be effective. They're getting good pitching. You know, the Cardinals
lineup hasn't been great, but they can still be pretty good. Now,
I think that that thing's going to be a slavery knocker.
I think the entire way through and the all of
a sudden, the Brewers their lineup looks awesome. How about that?
Speaker 2 (38:22):
Yeah, I did not expect that coming into the season.
Speaker 1 (38:24):
And like their numbers are kind of tight, like they
look like they're going to be good and consistently good.
Speaker 2 (38:28):
They're kind of mashing the ball.
Speaker 1 (38:30):
Yeah, Like the joke was coming in, like the Brewers
just want to win every game one nothing. Sure, that's
not the case. They continue to kind of just smack
the cover off the ball.
Speaker 2 (38:38):
I'm pleasantly surprised by that. So I mentioned this early year.
The Red Sox playing a very early game today for PE.
So they get the Guardians right, and this number is
all over the board, but it's been going up a
little bit. Are the Boston Red Sox sneaky good?
Speaker 1 (38:52):
Is it possible? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (38:54):
They are sitting right now in the American League East
at nine and seven. They're a half a game back
of the oriel sitting in third place as we speak.
The one trepidation I would have, but buying in they
did get the a's, you know right away in the season,
your Angels, they were taken apart by the it's a
huge series win, come on against the Orioles. But they
played the Angels twice. I mean that's world series with
(39:16):
champion Angels of course. Yeah, yeah, so that I'm a
little scared there. But and the Guardians are pretty good overall.
Speaker 1 (39:23):
Yeah. I think Boston, like I always figured Boston would
kind of be like a like, I think we all
kind of figured they'd be a decent offensive team, right sure,
it was just whether or what you were going to
get over the large sample size when it comes to pitching. Now,
I do think like when you look at something like
they strike out a ton, so you don't really like that,
Like overquart of their appearances, they're striking out, they're walking
at a pretty decent rate, but not something insane. I
think that maybe that's the worry, is that that kind
(39:44):
of falls off. But I think for what the expectations
were for them, I think they're better than what we
thought they were going to be for sure. Okay, agreed.
Speaker 2 (39:51):
Now, I mentioned this in a recent shows here on
the network that betting the cy Young Award. To me,
it's a lot of fun because you, basically, I like
the way Mike Palm said it here at CIRCA, you
have action almost every single day because your pitcher is
going to go sometimes twice a week, so you have
action essentially every time that your pitcher goes. But basically
(40:12):
you have action every other day because you want to
fade the guys who are going to be in competition
to win that award. But with all of these injuries,
I am slow to going nuts with adding guys. Your
guy read Debt Mers On the Angels. They are seven
and eight right now, they are a half a game
back of Texas for first place in the West. That
(40:32):
division looks completely bonkers at this point of the season.
Red Debt Meers has basically a one era. He's got
the highest strikeout per nine rate right now in baseball
as a starting pitcher. He's definitely got great case stuff.
This is not an aberration with that. Could that guy
be in the mix to win a Cy Young even
(40:52):
if the Angels win let's say seventy four seventy five games.
Speaker 1 (40:55):
I mean, I think he can. We've got some precedent
right that, you know that doesn't really matter to an
individual performance. Yeah, the strike one number is gonna be awesome,
and like he's it doesn't seem that it's going to
be anything like that's unsustainable. He's changed things. He's throwing
his fastball more, his change of the way. The rate
at which he's using his change up has increased. It's
one of his highest rate of pitches now that he's using.
You mentioned like the way that he can blow by guys.
(41:17):
The rate in which he's inducing swings that misses inside
the strike zone is so much higher. I think so.
And like the Angels have done a pretty like low key,
sneaky job in developing some of these guys to be
pretty decent pitchers. And like we like we'll see what
happens with As we were talking about why why am
I blanking on my to this animal is going today.
But the guy that just a sil seth, Yeah that
(41:38):
just went on. I l with the inflammation. But like
there's signs that he's going to be pretty solid too.
I know, I don't think that there's any reason why
he wouldn't believe it's for me, it was him or
you know, Expencer turnbulls off to an awesome start. Yeah,
and he's still flowed around like one hundred to one here.
If you look at some of the numbers, two, like
you know, the fielding independence floating right around three. Looks
like he can be kind of sustainable. Turnbull has been
great for the Philly so far too.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
Yeah, So I'm pretty convinced as well, like a player
on a team we don't need. The wins really aren't
going to matter that much anymore in Major League Baseball
when it comes to the awards. So it's going to
be the overall metrics and the numbers and how good
a guy is overall. He can't control whose teammates are,
so what is record, what the record is in his starts?
That would help too, right if they're a bad team,
but they're winning his games more often. The biggest problem
(42:18):
I have for Reed Deptmers is no more Otani on
the team. I just don't know if you figure they're
not going to be that good this year overall, maybe
they could surprise.
Speaker 1 (42:26):
I doubt it, But Out's gonna get traded of the deadline.
Speaker 2 (42:29):
That's not gonna happen. I'll never trade this guy, evidently,
But will Deptmers do enough? Like will he ever be
able to get into the national narrative? That's my biggest
doubt about yours.
Speaker 1 (42:38):
But I also think, like, are there going to be
voters who are just like not like even if he's
sitting there with like, you know, like a two three
era near the end of the year and team case
per nine. Sure, yeah, but will they just be like
now the team stinks, like I feel like pitchers are good,
like Cy Young is a good enough individual war that
you can overlook something like that. But to your point,
I mean, dude, the Angels. The biggest example what you're
(42:59):
talking about, CHOEO. Toney played for the Angel swat six years.
They were trotting him out on Thursday Night football with
the Rams like he just got to LA for the
first time. Yeah, they had no idea that he'd been
there in their backyard the entire time. They're giving up jerseys,
everybody's clapping, he'd been there for six years. The Angels
have no pull when it comes to some of the narrative, No, none,
And that was with him. Now you're asking for detmors
(43:21):
to get that another guy who was off to a
great start, Paul Blackburn. Again, DA's might win sixty four games.
Who knows he hasn't allowed to run yet. Yep, eras
at zero point. I'm guessing that's going to regress a
little bit. But here's one more realistic guy. Was he Burials? Dude?
Is it possible? Is the turnaround real?
Speaker 2 (43:39):
I love his stuff, always have, but I think it's
never really panned out overall.
Speaker 1 (43:44):
I think one of the big changes I was looking
at some of his numbers earlier. I think of what
is using his fastball like a little bit more? And
I don't know he's I'm with you. I have believed,
but it's never really been their consistency. But consistently it
looks really good though.
Speaker 2 (43:55):
In fact, over the years it's like trying to find
spots on a day to day basis to fade him
how you can, but ah, he.
Speaker 1 (44:03):
Some kind of. It's a small sample size regardless for
a full season for starting pitchers, you just got to
maintain it. For for a smaller sample size over the
course of the year, it's do it. Tom Burns going
to join the show up next.
Speaker 2 (44:12):
He covers the NBA Mad Dog Sports Radio on Series XM,
who does he like in the playing games and in
the first round will ask him next year on Vison
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