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April 16, 2024 44 mins

In hour one of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and JVT preview the NBA play in games, Tuesday's MLB slate, and Matt Youmans joins the show to discuss Circa releasing their NFL props.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Follow the Money. That's why I say you always follow.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Yeah, Yeah.

Speaker 3 (00:04):
This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly
Howard on VSON.

Speaker 1 (00:11):
Here we go.

Speaker 3 (00:12):
It is Follow the Money on VSON, the Sports Betty Network.

Speaker 4 (00:15):
This show is brought to you by DraftKings Mitch Moss
along with Jonathan von tobol in for Paully Howard. This
week we are live in downtown Las Vegas from the
Circa Resort and Casino. Big, big show lined up for
you today, plenty on the NBA with the playing games
beginning tonight, some adjusted numbers now with news that came
out yesterday. In this sport we'll get to fresh NFL

draft props that we're going to discuss in fifteen minutes.
Good guests on the program, including Matt Humans with his
best bets for the NFL Draft and the NBA playing
games as well. And we do have this Lakers number
tonight JBT against the Pelicans. It's around the money line,
so it's really not that significant, but at DraftKings, for example,

the Pelicans are a one point favorite at home tonight
against the Lakers. If you look around at other spots,
either in Las Vegas or National Sports books, you can
find it pick them and in fact, there is a
Lakers minus one and a half out there in this game.

Speaker 5 (01:13):
Wow, anthy end to day is questionable. Yeah, so that's
the real thing. And we see the market do this
all the time, right, which is all right. If Anthony Davis,
once he's ruled active, then you'll probably see that one
point bump toward the Los Angeles Lakers wherever it's at.
Obviously the spot is already one and a half. I
don't think you're gonna go to two and a half
because it'd be a pretty off market there. But it's
not going to be surprising where we're sitting as a pick,
and I wouldn't be surprised if this closes. Pick the

Lakers minus one and you could really get involved whenever
you want. Pre flop one either way is not going
to make the biggest difference in the world. But the
more I've like kind of dove into this matchup, the
more I find it kind of hard not to come
in and back the Lakers, assuming that Anthony Davis is
going to play, and assuming that I want to say
yes because it's the play in and you don't want

to play games with this injury report anymore, and if
he's going to be healthy to he's going to be
ready to go, and it would seem that the indications
are that he is healthy and ready to go. So
I'm going to kind of assume that you're going to
get ad out there and that this is eventually going
to close.

Speaker 4 (02:09):
Pick Lakers, if I made Anthony Davis right now minus
two dollars to play in this game.

Speaker 1 (02:13):
Tonight, would you bet the Yes, I would say yes,
you would bet two dollars.

Speaker 5 (02:17):
I know we were talking and kind of laughing about
the ability or the potential for the Lakers try to
thread the needle right, which is lose this game, then
play the losers the winner of the nine to ten matchup,
and try to get the Oklahoma City Thunder. The reality
is is that you don't want to put it up
to a one game elimination and that you want to
come in and win this matchup. So I do think
that you're going to put your best foot forward. I

do think that Anthony Davis is going to play here,
So I would say yes, I think it's a fair
price that minus two hundred he plays.

Speaker 4 (02:43):
They just played on Sunday. Was never even a game
Lakers blew them out. Are we going to get a
repeat of that? Where are you at with Brandon Ingram
and his status overall?

Speaker 5 (02:55):
Well, his here's the thing, So he misses a bunch
of time and then of course he comes back at
the end of the year, not that you know, I
would say ready to go in terms of like the
health and the continuity. But to me, that's not the
biggest problem. So it's going over some of the things
for this matchup, and obviously, like the big thing that
sticks out, Mitch is what are you going to do
defensively here? So the Lakers in their three games sorts
could be their four games that they played against the

New Orleans Pelicans, they got an offense rating a one
twenty four point one, So every one hundred possessions they're
scoring one hundred and twenty four point one points against
the Pelicans. And the real big issue and you saw
in that last game Jonas Valentunis only played seven minutes
in that last game against the Lakers. His by the way,
I think it's points and rebounds. I got a double check.
I was kind of half asleep and I was looking
up late last night. I think we're sitting in like

eleven and a half. We don't know how long he's
going to be out there, and the reason is he's
kind of been a nightmare defensively for them. How about
a couple of numbers here, Anthony Davis in the four
games against Jonas Valentiunas twenty two points seven assists, nine
to fourteen from the floor. Lebron James eighteen points five assists,
seven to ten from the floor. That's what Jonas vallencunis
is a primary defender. You can't really do anything there.

Zion Williamson has been having to defend the Lebron James
certain possessions.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
Yeah, it's the same thing with Ruy Hatchmore.

Speaker 5 (04:02):
Ruy Hatchmore is a perfect seven to seven in this
series against Zion Williamson is a primary defender.

Speaker 1 (04:07):
Lebron's been to the free throw and ten times.

Speaker 5 (04:09):
As Zion Williamson is a primary defender, what adjustments are
you making defensively that is going to change this thing
for you?

Speaker 1 (04:16):
If you're the New Orleans Pelicans.

Speaker 4 (04:17):
Well, and we know that going in right, because again
this year for the Lakers, the discrepancy in shooting free
throws is heavily in their favor yep. And so if
they're going to play their basketball game and it's going
to be a typical Lakers refereid contest, they're probably going
to outshoot the Pelicans by a significant amount at the stripe.
And if they're hitting all those free throws, then they
are going to win this game. And if Ad plays,

they are going to win this game. You the valen
Tunis then is just what's more likely to happen here.
He's a total non factor in the game, or he
doesn't even play. And when I say that, I mean
he's not going to get that many minutes.

Speaker 5 (04:49):
Yeah, I think you start him still, and he's played
in all of them, but their minus nineteen in the
four games with him on the floor. It's just not good.
So you start him. You try to do something with them.
Obviously you're in a little bit of a type bind
because Anthony Davis does like to play a little bit
like elbow extended. And then of course can use an
athleticism in those spots. It's not like a traditional post
up and use your size and you to me, you

mentioned the biggest thing, which is the free throws. The
New Orleans Pelicans are tenth in free throw rate. They
make twenty point two free throws for every one hundred
shot attempts. It's the tenth best in the NBA. The Lakers.
The underrated thing about what the Los Angeles Lakers do.
It's not so much that they make as many free throws.
They're second in both offensive and defensive free throw rate.
So not only do they get a ton of free throws,

they don't foul teams, or I guess we'll say they
don't foul teams.

Speaker 4 (05:34):
The referees don't bawl the whistle against the Lakers as
much as they do to every other team in the league.

Speaker 1 (05:39):
Bab correct.

Speaker 5 (05:40):
And so when you can't, when you as a team
are dependent on that, but you can't get there while
the other team can consistently do it, it's absolutely nuts.
And when you look too, how about this this is
the big thing, and it goes back to again like
for me, that's why I keep going back to the Lakers,
because these physical matchups are always still there. In these
four games Mitch that they have played, forty point nine
percent of the Lakers attempts have come within four feet

of the basket. They have shot seventy six percent on
those attempts.

Speaker 1 (06:06):
Now, that is bonkers.

Speaker 5 (06:07):
They're just killing them inside. They're getting to the free
throw line, and you just you don't know what you're
gonna do because you have good to wing defenders like
Herb Jones is awesome. Herb Jones gives up like a
million pounds to Lebron James. Oh yeah, you're not gonna
hill contest, right. So like when I this is why
I like the playoffs so much, because you look at
these matchups, you go, what are you gonna do? How
are you going to adjust? And for me, there's not

much adjustment you're doing here in this series that's going
to change what has been going wrong for you to
the first four games.

Speaker 4 (06:35):
What if we get absolute peak a plus game out
of Zion Williamson Me, it could be. I mean, then
he goes for thirty five eight rebounds in ten assists.

Speaker 5 (06:43):
Then I think you're looking to play this thing over
because I don't. I don't think there's a reality in
which you're stopping the Lakers like Lebron again is matching
up with Zion pretty frequently in this matchup. You're not
feeling comfortable putting Zion pretty much anywhere else you could
put him in that role of kind of like a
roving defender, but he's not like a Rudy Gobert or
anybody else that's gonna come over and tightly can test
some shots. So maybe this thing goes over the total,

but that's what you're looking for. You're also looking, of course,
if that's going to be the case. You're getting a
three throw line a little bit more than you were
in this series against the Lakers. But I think that's
really the only change here because I don't think there's
a reality because here's the thing, Like in the four games,
if the Lakers just bombing away from three, then you're like, okay, cool,
maybe in one off you're gonna be able to kind
of get some good shooting regression. They're not going to

hit those shots.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
But when you're giving.

Speaker 5 (07:25):
Up shots within four feet of the basket that regularly
against this team, that's not changing. When you get back
to another game here, even if it's on your own floor.

Speaker 4 (07:33):
Do people need to tread lightly betting this game live tonight?
The thought is here because it basically is around to
pick them that you're going to potentially get a much
better number than this on either side because runs happen
in the NBA. But what about if let's say either
team gets out to a fifteen point second quarter lead,
or they're leading by doubles in a third quarter. Could

could the team that's losing at some point decide, you
know what, we lose this one, We're gonna punt on
the rest of this game, we have one more I'll
set my guys here, and you want to be careful
with maybe watching how they're gonna do what they're gonna
do with the rotations.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
That could that be in play?

Speaker 5 (08:10):
I mean, I think it is, but I don't think
it's in play until late in the fourth quarter. Late
in the fourth quarter because, like, as we kind of
discussed here, like if you're the Lakers and for whatever reason,
you find yourself in the fourth quarter with like two
and a half minutes left, you know, two minutes left
and you're down by like thirteen points, do you give
it like one more possession and if you can't get that.

Speaker 1 (08:28):
Three or whatever it is, do you pull the plug?

Speaker 5 (08:30):
Because not only do you have one more shot at
this whoever's gonna win the late game, there's also the
added benefit of you know, if we win that game,
we get the much more favorable matchup there in the
Oklahoma City Thunder, and then, by the way, we get
the winner of LA and Dallas, so that would be
a fascinating matchup for them as well. So the path
just becomes a little bit more easier. So I think
that's kind of the worry. But I still think, like

first half, I wouldn't be shy about doing what you
usually do in NBA games. Like you said, it's a
one point spread. Oh, if the Pelicans go up six nothing,
you're gonna get a pretty solid number here.

Speaker 4 (09:00):
What you want, like if you're if you're if that's
your plan, you want like sixteen five out of the gates? Yeah,
time out? Okay, what's the new line? I'm going to
come and bet the Lakers at that point. I would
also flip it though, and say the Pelicans, I mean,
could the writing be on the wall early for this team?
They just got blown out again against the Lakers on Sunday,
Ingram has not, I mean, he was hurt for a while,

recently came back, and they could look at it as well,
we do.

Speaker 1 (09:25):
Have another home game here, suh.

Speaker 4 (09:27):
Yeah, I mean that would be the team that would
want to probably stay away from grabbing a big number
getting blown out.

Speaker 1 (09:33):
I think so.

Speaker 5 (09:33):
And by the way too, I mean it's just the
mental aspect of it, right, which is great. Here we
go again. The Lakers go up like sixteen to five
immediately in this matchup. If if you're the Pelicans, where
are you at mentally?

Speaker 4 (09:45):
Well, even if it's like sixty two forty three at
halftime or something where it's totally lopsided, what.

Speaker 1 (09:50):
Are you going to get in the second half?

Speaker 2 (09:51):

Speaker 1 (09:51):
I remember I was there.

Speaker 5 (09:52):
I was so excited to watch this ind season tournament
game between them and the Lakers.

Speaker 1 (09:57):
Left after the second quarter. It was like that this
is a the there's no need to be here.

Speaker 5 (10:00):
Yeah, they're again run off the floor and again you
see that, you know, big matchup. Obviously, everything on the
line for the Pelicans. You know, you got to get
out of the play in you get ramped up and
ready to go. I mean they essentially played this game
that was a playoff game for both those teams at
the end of the regular season. Yep.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
And that's what transpired. It was an absolute slaughter.

Speaker 4 (10:17):
I will point out that the public they are six
and ten ats playing the playing games, and tonight the
Lakers at DraftKings sixty eight percent of the handle, seventy
four percent of the bets, and in the Lake game
the Warriors now bumped up to three. At some spots,
they're getting ninety two percent of the handle at draft kings,

seventy seven percent of the bets.

Speaker 2 (10:41):

Speaker 5 (10:42):
I mean, look, he's intered to those six and ten.
There's six covers in there. They're right sometimes right. So
I just when there's so many mismatches that go in
favor of one side and it's not reliant on shooting
from distance things like that, I find it hard to Obviously,
the looming thing is whether Anthony Davis is going to play,
But if you give me both of them, I find

it hard to really come off of the side of
the Lakers here.

Speaker 4 (11:05):
Side note, there is also a massive game tonight in
the NHL for Atlantic Division futures. Because the Bruins lost
last night. It's up for grabs. It's either the Bruins
or the Panthers to win it tonight. The Bruins win
the Atlantic one of three different ways. If they beat
Ottawa tonight, Florida has to lose against Toronto and Regulation

or Boston and Florida both lose their games in overtime,
then Boston will win.

Speaker 1 (11:30):
If it comes down to a tie.

Speaker 4 (11:31):
Florida owns the tiebreaker tonight, so and Florida was a
massive number to win this division.

Speaker 3 (11:35):
Earlier on in the season craziness NFL Draft up Next
Circa released all their props yesterday. It was crazy with
the four and a half quarterbacks.

Speaker 1 (11:58):
Desn dot com. Check out the newsletter, folks.

Speaker 5 (12:00):
You can start your morning with the daily dose of
winning strategies insider tips in the latest buzz in today's newsletter.
I was working hard yesterday. Our NBA postseason primer is
out and it is free to download if you're a
subscriber of the newsletters. Check it out now. I have
Eastern Conference. Zach Cohen had the Western Conference previews of
the two series that are set. It's an analysis on

the top seeds in the respective conferences as well and
more on the play in games up on the website
of Vson dot com. Check it all out vson dot
com slast newsletter.

Speaker 4 (12:27):
Did you make a decision on the Bullshawks game as
long as you were writing up the Eastern Conference?

Speaker 5 (12:32):
Yes, so I'll have the Eastern Conference playing article up
later today after we're done here. But yeah, I'm gonna
do it one more time. I'm going to give these
Hawks my trust last time, last time. Although I don't
know if this is good or bad? Did she the
report this morning? Ray Young potentially on the way out. Well,

that's you want to know what the deal? This is
the ideal spot? You ready for it?

Speaker 3 (12:58):

Speaker 1 (12:58):
Because I don't think he has an ideal spot.

Speaker 5 (13:00):
Oh, I think you'll like it once I throw it
at you. Drum roll please, Trey Young teaming up with
Mitch Moss's defensive player of the Year, I.

Speaker 1 (13:08):
Absolutely hate it. What that's awesome. It'll it'll make the
defense worse. No, but that's perfect.

Speaker 5 (13:14):
You just get blown by every time and allow Victor
Wembama to just swallow up every single.

Speaker 3 (13:18):
Drive to the best opposite of what they need.

Speaker 1 (13:20):
It's gonna be great.

Speaker 5 (13:22):
It's gonna be so dude, those with him, those picking
rolls of him and Webbe, it's gonna be.

Speaker 1 (13:26):
Sick the game.

Speaker 3 (13:27):
What are their totals going to be if that happens
next year to sixty No.

Speaker 5 (13:30):
It's gonna be like ninety eight and a half because
Victor Wim Bayama is like the best defensive player on
the planet.

Speaker 3 (13:34):
Well he is, but overall that makes the team defense
much worse.

Speaker 1 (13:38):
I think it works.

Speaker 2 (13:40):
It'd be cool.

Speaker 1 (13:40):
I I'd watch a lot of those games, say you
that much.

Speaker 4 (13:44):
They would be entertaining. Yes, uh, if Spurs were entertaining
this year anyway.

Speaker 3 (13:47):
Spur Spurs circa opened up their draft props yesterday and
very intriguing.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
It came around one o'clock.

Speaker 3 (13:56):
Eastern ten am Pacific, and the numbers were moving very quickly.
For example, bone Nicks, all that talk about him going
around number twelve to the Broncos or certainly being a
first round pick. They opened him up here thirty two
and a half juice to the over. It quickly moved

to thirty four and a half over minus one seventy.
So betters were instantly gravitating towards that prop and playing
him over, saying he's not going to be.

Speaker 1 (14:28):
A first round pick. Yep.

Speaker 4 (14:30):
The quarterback who was holding steady at last check, Michael
Pennox thirty two and a half did not budge.

Speaker 5 (14:37):
I got over minus one ninety. Yeah, yeah, that's where
it opened up.

Speaker 4 (14:40):
Yeah, that's that's what I That's the first number that
I saw as well. So if we do get five quarterbacks,
I think it's gonna be Penix and not Nicks.

Speaker 5 (14:50):
I agree with that. So if I'm wrong about that,
That's been one of the things that's also kind of
shocked me about this whole thing. And I think I
mentioned this y yesterday. This whole time, I've thought Pennix
was the better quarterback than Bone. He is, so I've
always thought it was weird that Nicks was the one
people kept hanging their hat on as the guy who
could sneak into the first round. Like I think Pennix
is like a left handed Aaron Rodgers, the way he

could zip the ball down, the athleticism, like, he's awesome.
I don't understand why Nix was the guy that the
rest were settling on. It's like, just got to be
the dude that's going to go in the first I
think he's worse than Michael Penix.

Speaker 4 (15:21):
Bo Nicks was completely forced all this talk about I
I no offense to the kid. I mean, I hope
he goes to the NFL, turns out, makes millions, whatever
that I'm never rooting against anybody. I just did not
see it at all, watching him up close and personal,
by the way twice last year did not.

Speaker 1 (15:38):
I never once thought this guy his first round pick
written all over him.

Speaker 3 (15:41):
Well, you have the work in Washington, game up in Seattle,
and the one here.

Speaker 1 (15:44):

Speaker 4 (15:45):
I mean their offense was awesome, but there was never
anything deep. It was all dink and dunk. It was
Derek Carr. Would you take Derek Carr with a first
round pick today?

Speaker 1 (15:54):
They literally didn't. He never did any So now this
is interesting too.

Speaker 4 (15:59):
Marvin Garrison's draft position four and a half the under
open full minus four dollars at last check, Again, it
was still in that range, so nobody wanted to touch
that one.

Speaker 3 (16:12):
That eliminates the idea.

Speaker 4 (16:15):
Of quarterback quarterback quarterback quarterback, sure right, So if Arizona
holds tight at number four, the thought is Harrison's going
to be the guy hence to minus four dollars. Does
that also mean that JJ McCarthy his draft prop number
is five and a half. Does that mean if the
Vikings trade is going to be with the Chargers at

number five to get head of the Giants, and that's
where McCarthy's going to go.

Speaker 1 (16:39):
Yeah, I think that's always plausible.

Speaker 5 (16:41):
I mean, I guess the Patriots are always kind of
an interesting spot because the Patriots, I think, are a
team that is going to look at this realistically and go,
we need to build up the roster first. We don't
need to grab one of these quarterbacks, and so maybe
you trade up the third to go and get him
and that's going to be the case, or maybe they
take Marvin Harrison junior. But I would say that, like
as we've kind of discussed and where like my draft

portfolio is kind of shaken out to be, is I
think that McCarthy ends up going a little bit later.
I know it's like fun to say that, hey, top
four quarterbacks, all that kind of stuff, but I think
it's more of a realistic scenario.

Speaker 1 (17:11):
Like we talked about, the.

Speaker 5 (17:12):
Chargers haven't really taken top thirty visits with these offensive linemen.
Do you trade back, get some more assets, and then
use a couple of picks on that offense, get one
of the wide receivers, like, get one of the the
offensive linemen in a deep class in the first round,
and grab those two picks from Minnesota. I think that
makes a little bit more sense than trading up to
three or even trading up to four. You know all

the reports that we've gotten and there's not that many,
but they indicate that Arizona's infatuated with Marvin Harrison. So
why would they pass up on the opportunity to draft
the guy that they reportedly love to then move back like, yeah,
you get the capitol, but they really want Harrison Junior.

Speaker 4 (17:46):
By all accounts, Yah, unless they're completely blown away by
the trade offer, it's simply something that they cannot refuse,
right where the team just comes in over the top
and they play the points system and they realize weight
they're offering us way too many points here via that
draft capital, like you mentioned, we have to take it.

Speaker 5 (18:00):
Yes or in Like Sam Monson came out with his
mock draft for Pro Football Focus, he had JJ McCarthy
going too. So let's say, like that reality happens if
you're Minnesota. If we're believing all the smoke that JJ
McCarthy's the guy that they want, would they then trade
up to just get whoever's left?

Speaker 1 (18:17):
Probably not right, I don't think so.

Speaker 4 (18:20):
I mean maybe the Raiders would be the one team
that would make the phone call then and say, wait,
our guy is still available at past number two. The
Raiders could then be on the horn immediately because that's
the guy they're infatuated with, or Antonio Pierce loves anyway.

Speaker 1 (18:32):
Jane Daniels, Yep, you know, I do think.

Speaker 4 (18:33):
There is a path by the way for the Vikings
to not trade up and still get McCarthy at number eleven.
I completely agree, right, because if it does go quarterback
quarterback quarterback, Cardinals go Harrison, Chargers go Joe Alt Do
the Giants need to take JJ McCarthy number six?

Speaker 1 (18:49):
Why would they?

Speaker 4 (18:51):
I don't think that they would want to start all
over hit the reset button with that guy at number six.
I think they want to give Danny Dimes certainly more time,
and they just brought in Drew Locke. I don't think
McCarthy would be the pick Titans. Why would they. They
took Roll Levis last year, Atlanta has Kirk Cousins number nine.
In Chicago, Well, they're gonna take Kila Williams number one
overall number ten. The Jets picking up, They're not going

to take quarterback. So the Vikings are picking at number eleven,
unless that a team like the Broncos or the Raiders
would leap frog the Vikings to take JJ McCarthy, and
I think there's a possibility of that not happening.

Speaker 5 (19:23):
Right well, And like I said this to Tim when
we were on Primetime last week, to that point, let's
say you get to a point where like let's let's
say you get to ten and JJ McCarthy's still there,
you have more in your cabinet to trade regardless. Right, So,
if you're the New York Jets, if you're getting calls
from Denver and Las Vegas to leap Minnesota for that spot,
you're always going to call Minnesota and you're gonna tell them, Hey,

this is what they're offering. What do you have no
doubt you're always going to play them. So I always
think that Minnesota is always going to have the availability,
even just to move up one spot if they need
to to go get JJ McCarthy. So I would agree
with that sentiment too. That's why I kind of go
back to McCarthy potentially just not sliding, because I think
that this is the reality, like Dan Brugler had him
as the twenty first, you know, pick ranking course the second.

I think that this is more of a reality where
we do this all the time, but you look at
it and you go, oh, well, like if Washington takes
Jayden Daniels and new Eland was sitting there and goes like, yeah,
we like Drake may like he was actually our second
guy and he's here at three, let's take him. You
mentioned the rest of the scenario is there for the
Rose teams and for the Giants. It was pointed out
by I think it was the guys at PFF again,
but you know this front office everything, there's some questions

as to whether or not, like what's happening at the
top of this, you know this team, why would you
take a guy that you're probably not going to be
able to be around to.

Speaker 1 (20:31):
Develop at quarterback?

Speaker 5 (20:33):
Reality is you're probably gonna want to take a guy
that makes the team better, so you guys don't lose
your jobs here this year.

Speaker 1 (20:38):
Totally agree.

Speaker 4 (20:39):
In fact, I thought this was when I was tracking
the and I made a couple of bets on the
props that I'll get to here in a second. But
when I was looking at all the line movement and
the odds changing here at CIRCA and I took a
screen grab of this, tweeted it out at Mitch Moss
Radio the total number of first round quarterbacks four and
a half. At one point JBT, the odds moved to

minus one twenty five.

Speaker 1 (21:01):
To the over. So what we're talking about now.

Speaker 4 (21:03):
They were moving these props by you know, thirty cents
fifty cents on one or two bets yesterday, and in fact,
they were moving some draft positions on guys like seven, eight,
ten spots immediately by.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Taking a couple of bets.

Speaker 4 (21:18):
But at minus one twenty five they finally took over
money on that. That's how low the market got on
that prop here yesterday, yep.

Speaker 5 (21:25):
And now sitting at one sixty. And that's to me,
that's a more palatable number when you're talking about you know,
at one point here in town, we were looking at
minus three twenty over four and a half. That's just
a little too much when you know what we know
about the guys that are potentially flirting with going the
first round of Nickson Pennicck.

Speaker 2 (21:41):

Speaker 4 (21:41):
I bet Packers first pick to not be an offensive
player at plus one oh five. That's a minus one
fifty five at last check. And here's one that I missed.
I believe they opened up the Vikings first pick to
be an offensive player as a small favorite. I want
to say that ballooned all the way to minus six dollars. Yeah,
and that was sitting there. We're going to have Dylan

Sullivan on the program tomorrow. He was in charge of
all the numbers here at CIRCA. That's one thing will
to ask him about for sure. I think that I
want to say it was a minus one twenty five
in that neighborhood. I could be wrong on that, but
I believe they opened up a short favorite there. Now
that another one here, Wisconsin running back Braylan Allen opened
in the low eighties for his reposition.

Speaker 1 (22:20):
He got his high as one hundred and twenty.

Speaker 2 (22:22):

Speaker 4 (22:22):
Really, so I think they were probably taking bet after
bett after bet on him and just moving him the
entire time. We will touch on today's Major League Baseball
card up next. I wanted nothing to do with this
picture in previous years. Dare I say it's now time
to have faith as he's off to a rock solid start.

Speaker 5 (22:46):
Lisa dot Com slash splits. The betting Splits page is
still open for free folks to check them out. Now
you can get all the betting Splits access you need
to handicap the play in matchups later tonight between the
Los Angeles Lakers and the New Orleans Pelicans, and then
the nightcap between the Gold State Warriors in the Sacramento Kings.
Again two weeks, it's been open man petty Splits access.
You don't need a pro subscription. Check it out now
Visa dot COM's lash Fitz.

Speaker 4 (23:08):
Wild day yesterday in Major League Baseball, capped off by
a four dollars dog winning out right. Last night, Nationals
beating Tyler Glassnow and the Dodgers. How about that, Yeah,
money line parlays down the drain, down the tube. Glasnow
was beautiful. He was magnificent in his last outing.

Speaker 1 (23:26):
I don't think I've ever called the picture beautiful before
my entire life. He had a beautiful performance.

Speaker 3 (23:30):
How about that he struck out fourteen, came back to reality.

Speaker 4 (23:34):
You like to do that quite often? Is that when
a guy is completely lights out, or maybe for example,
throws a no hitter or combined no hitter or comes
close to that, you want to go against him in
the next game. Well, for people who were betting the
Nationals last night, that was a winner. I don't know
how many people were, maybe some sharp people were, But
the Dodgers, that's a huge favorite.

Speaker 1 (23:53):
They go down.

Speaker 4 (23:55):
I'll be honest. The picks were not good at all
yesterday in baseball. I was wrong on the Yankees, got
that one wrong. That was a loser.

Speaker 3 (24:02):
The Leans as well with the Pirates and the Brewers
no good.

Speaker 5 (24:07):
Yeah, yeah, I was really impressed by that performance by
the Padres in that one. Huh, going out there and
beating up on Milwaukee, holding them down, winning that thing
seven to three, down.

Speaker 4 (24:16):
Three nothing immediately, Brewers had runners on the entire time.
No Sunday night baseball doesn't matter. Flew halfway across the
country for a night game against Milwaukee, came back.

Speaker 5 (24:25):
About the Angels yesterday, coughing it up. Plus the half
run bottom of the fifth inning. Sandoval's wheeling and dealing
then allows the first three guys to reach.

Speaker 1 (24:34):
Looks like he's gonna out of it.

Speaker 5 (24:35):
Then let's one get through and they go into the
bottom innings down one nothing.

Speaker 3 (24:40):
Oh your boy, Mike Trout hit another home run.

Speaker 1 (24:41):
He has seven?

Speaker 4 (24:42):
What kind of season are we talking about for this guy?
First of all, how many games will he play in?

Speaker 5 (24:47):
I mean, look, I just said this a thousand times
because it'll be cool. He's going to play at one
hundred and fifty six games now, he's going to hit
about forty five home runs in batle like three seventy.

Speaker 3 (24:56):
I joked with you about this when you sat in
like two months ago.

Speaker 2 (24:59):

Speaker 5 (24:59):
And and they're gonna get outlier pitching performances all year long.
Sand of All's gonna turn things around. We talked about
Dettvers yesterday. He's gonna have a cy young career, Orcv
a career year, and they're gonna win like eighty seven
games to make the playoffs. Yeah, now that Otani's not there,
it's gonna be agonizing.

Speaker 3 (25:14):
He has seven Are we talking? Are we like realistically?

Speaker 1 (25:17):

Speaker 3 (25:18):
Are we talking about thirty five plus bombs for chrout
this year?

Speaker 2 (25:20):

Speaker 1 (25:21):
I think he's healthy. He seems on. Man, Is he
is seven at this point? Yep? He is on. He's
seeing it well.

Speaker 5 (25:27):
Guy, he got one lower the strike zone yesterday. It's
a sweet spot and he nailed that thing the second
that left the bat.

Speaker 1 (25:32):
You knew some numbers. I want to run by you. Today.

Speaker 4 (25:34):
It's ro Don and the Yankees in Toronto again against
Kokuchi and the Blue Jays. Kakuchi is the guy I
was talking about before the break. I was looking to
try to find ways to fade him in previous years.
Well gbt this year so far in three starts, eleven
point four to nine case per nine a two point
three e RA expected ERA of two point seven three,

the fifth two point eight seven. Those are tremendous numbers.
Bab up three twenty. He's got to cut down in
the walk rate. It's four plus per nine innings, and
his last two starts he had nine k's and seven k's.
His k prop was five and a half each time.
It's five and a half against the Yankees again in

this game tonight.

Speaker 5 (26:16):
I mean, I wouldn't blame you. And the other part
is the underlying numbers. Redone would tell you that he's
maybe doue for some regression. You look at the ERA
and the fielding independent split. You're talking about one seventy two,
but a four to fifty six fifth like would indicate
that maybe there is some room for regression there, and
quite a bit if you look at that large of
a gap. The problem is for Redona at least, I

feel like you know you're not getting enough of the
underlying numbers, they really tell the story. His walks are
up this year, so he's allowing a lot of free
runners but not giving up a ton of hard contact.
Maybe you're playing this thing under if you believe in
Kakoujie and the fact that he could have come out
here and have a really good showing, while also believing
that Redon can come in and just pitch the contact,
give up some softies and then that's about it and
get out in a low scoring game. I think that's

maybe the way you're going here because I've been wanting
to kind of play against Redne but he hasn't really
shown any cracks so far.

Speaker 4 (27:03):
Yeah, Luis Heel for the Yankees yesterday walk seven guys.
He also struck out six, so he went over as
K prop. That means opposing starting pitchers are thirteen and
three to the over their kprop this year against the
Blue Jays. Yeah, and Rodin today is four and a
half with manageable juice. However, Rodn is three and oh
to the under this year is k prop. He's only

striking out. I have seven point four to seven k's
per nine.

Speaker 3 (27:26):
Which is very low for him. He's always one of
the highest guys in the entire league.

Speaker 5 (27:30):
And to the point of getting against redone. If the
command issues are real, the Blue Jays are turning into
one of the more patient lineups out there in Midge
League baseball. They're walking ten percent of the time essentially,
so it's a pretty high rate for them getting on
basin and not swinging a junk essentially outside of the
strike zone.

Speaker 4 (27:44):
All right, So you mentioned this guy yesterday, Hunter Brown
goes for the Astros. It's going to be a Lopez
going for the Braves. Braves beat the Strogs last night,
six to one. Brown's numbers on the year three starts.
Think about this for one second. He's made three starts.
He is not an He's not an opener. By the way,
he's pitched seven to two thirds innings. You're like, wait,

what went wrong? Well, he went wrong. ERA higher than
sixteen expected ERA is hovering around nine. The fifth is
seven point twenty nine. He does have almost nine and
a half k's per nine, but the walk rate is
eight point two two per nine, two point three five

home runs per nine. The BABU is five point eighty
three batting average of balls in play. That is pretty
much a double the league average, So that will come
back at some point, but so far, so bad for
Hunter Brown. Like, if this continues, what do you want
to do against the Braves lineup? By the way, you
want to go your fee? Yeah, yes, to the run

in the first inning? You want to go a Braves
team total over the total is.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
Ten in the game. It's hard not it's hard not to.

Speaker 5 (28:55):
And here's the thing when it comes to Brown, because
you mentioned the batting average of balls to play, You're like, yeah, truly,
that's some bad luck. He's getting smoked. His hard hit
rate is over fifty five percent. So like, the reason
why the balls are getting our region is because guys
are just nailing them all over the place. So he's walking, dudes,
he's giving up hard contact. He's not generating swings and misses.

Speaker 1 (29:16):
You met.

Speaker 2 (29:17):
You know.

Speaker 5 (29:17):
The most impressive part about his resume so far. His
last start, he gave up nine earned runs in a
two thirds of an inning, two thirds of an inning,
two thirds of an inning. Didn't make it out of
the first. The Royals destroyed him last week, absolutely wrecked him.
How do you that's impressive giving him nine runs in
two thirds of an inning? Right, I want no part
of it. It seems it's one of those that seems

too easy. Right, you're looking at this right now, it's
minus one fifteen. He's been awful with this, with this
brazed lineup.

Speaker 1 (29:45):
I don't know, man.

Speaker 5 (29:46):
I think Brown's like on the straight fat trade. And then,
by the way we talked about it too, your bullpen
hasn't been.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
Great if you're the Astros.

Speaker 5 (29:52):
No, not at all, like bottom five in terms of
fielding independence of other numbers. I don't know, man, it
seems like this this is one that's a little too easy.
And the other side too is Renald the Lopez pitched
pretty well for the Braves and two starts.

Speaker 4 (30:04):
Okay, so you're thinking just Braves on the money line
in the game and then don't get cute nothing else.

Speaker 5 (30:08):
No, I mean I think you could go Braves. I
don't think either. Think the run line is probably something
you can look at here too.

Speaker 3 (30:13):
Oh so you want to do like ladder bets here, Yeah,
let's just Braves everything.

Speaker 5 (30:16):
Climb that ladder all the way to Heaven, baby, every
which way, but loose what you're saying.

Speaker 4 (30:20):
Jordan Hicks has been a revelation for the Giants. Says
they converted him from a reliever to a starter this year.
He was great in the spring. He gets the Marlins
tonight on the road. So what is fake about Jordan
Hicks anything. He's made three starts, his record is two
to zero. He's pitched eighteen innings. His ERA is a
flat one, the expected era is two point one five,

the fips slightly higher three point one nine, only six
point five k's per nine babib of two twenty nine JBT.
He's allowing a hard hit rate of eighteen point four percent.
Like guys are not getting to him whatsoever through eighteen
innings so far.

Speaker 1 (31:00):
I mean, I'd say there's nothing. I don't know.

Speaker 5 (31:02):
I'd feel pretty comfortable here if you're looking at especially
the way that the Marlins are swinging the bat, like
they're not in effective lineup in any way, shape or
form early part of the season, dead lasts a way
to runs create a plus. They're not heading for average,
they're striking out at the decent rate, they're not walking,
and especially with your guy like this just pitches to
soft contact and allows your defense eat those things up. Like,
I don't see why you wouldn't feel comfortable here. I
don't think there's anything real fake about Jordan Hicks numbers

when you look through at all.

Speaker 1 (31:24):
I don't think so either.

Speaker 4 (31:26):
Nope, and I'll give you one more rookie sensation. Jared
Jones goes today for the Pirates. His k prop is
sitting between five and a half and six and a half.
The way it looks right now, over six and a
half is plus one point forty at DraftKings. He's made
three starts, eighteen innings, twelve point five k's per nine,

ten k's, seven ks, and eight k so far, he's
three oh to the over. The k prop started this
year at four and a half, moved to find five
and a half, then at six and a half. The
Mets strike out the second fewest no check that the
fourth fewest amount, though of times in the entire league.
Their strikeout rate is below nineteen percent.

Speaker 1 (32:07):
See I like both these Like I like Jones a lot.

Speaker 5 (32:10):
Save my fantasy season, please, and also like as we
talked about yesterday, I think the Bets are a little
underrated with the way that they've played. You mentioned the
low strikeout rate. They actually do walk at a pretty
high clip. I think they're sitting well inside of the
top ten in terms of walk rate too. I think
that they've been pretty unlucky, So I don't know if
you're going to get there, especially with the way the
strikeout prop has been with this kid. But this is

the one where i'd stay away. But Jones has been
awesome so far, terrific. Yes, do you have any bets
on him doing NL Rookie of the Year?

Speaker 1 (32:37):
No, I did bet.

Speaker 5 (32:38):
I did throw a little bit on Skeens, though hopefully
he'll come up at some point.

Speaker 1 (32:41):
You're not the only one. Yeah.

Speaker 2 (32:42):
Yeah. A few weeks.

Speaker 3 (32:44):
Somebody reached out to me recently and said, you need
to get on this guy right now.

Speaker 4 (32:47):
He's blown away the competition. He's going to get called
up eventually. However, from what I don't really track the
Rookie of the Year that often. From what I understand,
pictures have a tough time winning that award.

Speaker 1 (32:56):
Yeah, would be the only thing.

Speaker 5 (32:58):
My whole thought was, it's the preseason hype, and the
ETA was about the beginning of May. Yeah, so if
you get here at the beginning of the May and
he's just kind of what you expect, it's a pretty
good shot he could do it.

Speaker 4 (33:09):
At least a bed shot. You know, I will have
a best bet today in Major League Baseball.

Speaker 3 (33:13):
It involves that Yankees Blue Jays game coming up a
little bit later on in the program, Vsent hosts Matt
Evemans on the show coming up next?

Speaker 4 (33:19):
Which NFL draft bets does? He suggest at this point
find out next.

Speaker 5 (33:40):
Don't miss out on any of the NBA playoff action
at DraftKings Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the
NBA from the play and tournament of the finals. DraftKings
Sportsbook as you covered with same game parlays, live betting odds, boosts,
end much more. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app. Use code
vs in new customers that five bucks and get two
hundred dollars in bonus bets in so v SID only

on DraftKings.

Speaker 1 (34:02):
The crown is your.

Speaker 4 (34:03):
VSENT host Matt Humans joins the program. Now you can
get his show v SIN tonight. It's weeknights eleven Eastern
a Pacific time. Matt, thanks for the time, as always,
we appreciate it. As he joins us here on the
progressive guest line, let's uh, we're going to get to
your best NFL Draft prop bets coming up here in
a few minutes, But your takeaways from Scottie Scheffler winning

the Masters. We were talking yesterday about how we're probably
not gonna betting him to win the PGA next month. Somehow,
some way, he's actually still listed to play. Why would
he even consider playing this weekend? And what do you
want to do about that?

Speaker 2 (34:39):
Yeah, I'm a bit skeptical that Scotty Scheffler is going
to play this week at hilton Head, South Carolina and
RBC Heritage. You know, you go back to the Masters
and a week ago we're talking about I don't want
to bet a lot of guys on the futures board
this week because Scheffler is such a strong favorite. Line
ended up making some bad bets on guys like Brooks Kopka,
Tony Finow trying to hit longer shots, and by Friday,

I just gave up. I said, this reminds me of
yukon the previous week, where Yukon going into the final four,
he had a pretty good idea that Husky's going to
win it. By Friday, I had a pretty good idea
Scotty Scheffer's going to win the Masters, like most people,
So I broke down about the favorite of plus one
twenty three to cover the other losses on the futures board,
and Scotty Scheffer was steady. He made a few uncharacteristic mistakes,

but a bunch of the other guys in contention made
more mistakes, and Scheffler's is too solid. He's got an
advantage of a gust that he knows how to play
that course. He's one of two of the last three years.
He really doesn't have that same edge in the obviously
in the majors that are coming up later this summer,
so that was the one where he's going to be
the strongest bet this week in South Carolina. I do

think maybe there's a little bit of value on some
of the other players. If for some reason Scheffer withdraws
this week, Maybe Ludwig Oberg at fourteen to one, can't
Ley at seventeen, Cameron Young at thirty three. Who knows
one of these guys could break through. Cantley's get impeccable
form on this course. Even though I don't like him

at seventeen to one, it might be a decent play. Scotti.
Scheffler could not wait to get home to Texas at
for the Masters with his wife about to deliver the baby.
JVT knows what that's all about. And you know, I
would say that it seems unlikely that he is going
to play this week, and he's a round of plus
four fifty favorite, and that does give you some value
on some other players if you think there's a chance

he's going to withdraw, and you got to think there's
a decent chance that's going to happen.

Speaker 5 (36:33):
That resonates with you, right, Matt. You'd go home and
take care of your pregnant wife, wouldn't you.

Speaker 2 (36:38):
I would stay there and play golf.

Speaker 4 (36:40):
But yeah, so I'm looking at one of the first
matchup I see, by the way on the board is
Scotty versus Enner Schawfley, and of course Scotty's a big favorite.

Speaker 1 (36:48):
He's minus two fifteen.

Speaker 4 (36:50):
Would you want to take Schoffley there at all, just
in case, like he starts doesn't finish and that possibility
might be distracted anyway not have a great follow up
round to his Master's win.

Speaker 2 (36:59):
Yeah, it was probably going to be a bit of
a hangover from the Masters win too, and everything going
on with his family life. So I think you have
to look at all those sorts of bets this week.
I hate to say it again, trying to find a
way to beat the favorite in Scottie Shuffler. But this
week I think it makes a lot more sense.

Speaker 5 (37:15):
All Right, Matt, we did the edge for a while.
You know me pretty well, and you have betrayed me
here when it comes to one of my favorite things
to do every single year. Tell me why you're going
against the bible of JVT and we're going over on
four and a half quarterbacks.

Speaker 2 (37:29):
It was one bet you know JVT is going to
make every year, actually two bets. One is going to
be the Clippers on the West. The other is under
the quarterback prop number in the first round. I have
not made this bet yet, but I'm thinking about it.
And it's four and a half over Chuck us Zito.
Red Rock Sportsbook had this number over four and a
half minus three dollars last week, and right now at CIRCA,

the four and a half and the quarterbacks is what
minus won sixty after. By the way, props to CIRCA
for putting up a ton of NFL draft props yesterday.
So now we got Station Casinos, Circa DraftKings. You get
a bunch of different stuff to look at here. So
Joe Klatt on NFL Network tonight is predicting six quarterbacks

in the first round. I don't think that's going to happen. Obviously,
really good chance we're going to see four in the
top ten. Some people think four in the top five.
Then who's that fifth quarterback? Michael Pinnix I think has
a better shot than Bo Nicks to go in the
first round. But we're going to get late in the
first round, I believe, until one of those guys has
a chance to get off the board. So I'm not
crazy about this over four and a half bet, But

there are so many teams need a quarterback. You could
see somebody trade into the back end of the first round,
like happened with Lamar Jackson when the Ravens traded into
the last pick to take him. So yeah, I'm leaning
over four and a half on that, thinking that Pinnis
or Knicks have a decent chance to go late in
the first round. But I'll tell you what I'm more

interested in here A little bit more right now is
JJ McCarthy under five and a half, because I do
think he's going to be a top five pick. I'm
reading a lot more that the Washington Commanders might like
him at two, the Patriots at three. You know, Jayden
Daniels is probably going to go two. But I think
JJ McCarthy is one of those guys who's liked a

lot more by the NFL teams and the average fans.
Do average fan thanks, well, he was a game manager
at Michigan. He's not a dynamic quarterback. I think a
lot of these NFL teams are looking at him like, hey,
this could be the next Tom Brady. You know, I
don't know if that's the case, But at the number
five spot, I don't think the Charger is going to
trade that pick to the Broncos. I think it's the Vikings.

Vikings move up to five if McCarthy's there, they take him.
So under five and a half minus one fifty five,
I think Circa's got the right number on that. But
the more and more I look at this and the
more I read about it and then listen to the
draft analyst, I think McCarthy is going to be a
top five pick.

Speaker 1 (39:58):
So, okay, how does his play out then? Exactly?

Speaker 4 (40:00):
And I know what you just said, but let's run
through this. Then under that scenario is going to be
Williams one, of course, then Daniel's number two. Drake may
still goes third. Overall, I'm guessing to the Patriots Cardinals
say now we're not going to trade teams.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
Don't want to go up that high anyway.

Speaker 4 (40:16):
Potentially they take Marvin Harrison number five, number four, and
then the Chargers there on the board, they could easily
move back and take an offensive lineman anyway, So that's
going to be the dance partner of the vikis are
going to find to take McCarthy there.

Speaker 2 (40:27):
Well, it looks like it because the Chargers would be
in a great position to trade down. They've got some
other needs and they don't need a quarterback. And I
don't think, you know, like you said, I don't think
Jim Harbaugh wants to trade that fifth pick to the
Broncos and let McCarthy into the division. You know, Drake
may might be the quarterback who slides. And I did
read something that in the Patriots organization are really high

on JJ McCarthy. So if he's there at three, maybe
the Patriots take them at three. You know, that's the
possible too. I'm not a big proponent that taking wide
receivers in the top ten. You know, I know everybody
loves Marvin Harrison Junior. A lot of it has to
do with his name, But you can get really good
receivers later in the draft. You got to look at

it like an advantage gambler. I think when you're drafting
and say, what's the value of taking these receivers in
the top ten? Hey, DeVante Adams is the second round pick.
Puka Nakua was a fifth round pick. You don't have
to take these guys in the top ten. So I'm
not sure all three of those top rated receivers are
going to go in the top ten. I wouldn't do it,
but they're probably going to go there. I think it's

a better bet that JJ McCarthy is going to be
off the board in the top five picks. You know,
there are a lot of draft position props here the
circuit put up that I like. I'm going to put
a callum up at VSN dot com this week with
my best bets on these draft positions, because going through them,
I've already highlighted about seven or eight that I really like,
and I don't want to get into too much of them

here because I want to bet them before. I talked
about them, but I didn't want to write about them.
I'll put them up on the vs in site, and
I give I do give Circle a lot of credit
for putting news up because most bookmakers don't want to
do this. Yeh.

Speaker 5 (42:06):
By the way, we're going to have a lot of
draft content up on the website Visa dot com, so
check it out in the next few days. All right,
NBA play in starts today, Matt late night matchup Warriors Kings.

Speaker 2 (42:16):
What do you got, Well, I'm playing the Warriors and
play this is on the money line about minus one
forty five DraftKings one forty two Circle one p fifty.
What an oddity that the last three games between these
teams have been decided by exactly one point if you
leave the Warriors nineteen and ten, since we all start
break playing a lot better, Klay Thompson's coming around twenty

seven and fourteen against the spread on the road is
Golden State and JBT. I don't know about you, but
I think the Malik Monk absence is going to hurt
the Kings a little bit. Maybe the top six man
in the league fifteen points a game, and it seems
like teams are trending in opposite directions in a way,
and I agree with the betting market move on the

Warriors here. I think they're the play tonight. To me,
the by far and away, the best first round series
is going to be the Mavericks and the Clippers. I
can't wait to see how that one plays out if
there's an upset in the first round. Mitchell, I know
you were on this. I saw the vs and pro plays.
I agree there's not the same value now. You got
about two to one with the Pacers yesterday. Now it's

about plus one thirty five. But I could really see
the Pacers taking down of the Bucks in the first round.

Speaker 4 (43:26):
Oh yeah, with the news that came out yesterday with
the honest doubt forces for Game one and that point
spread moved anyway, and the Pacers. We'll get into this
top of the hour, but the Pacers own the Bucks
this year in the regular season. You're off to Hawaii
what tomorrow night, Matt, have a great time to be Chilli.

Speaker 1 (43:42):
Yeah, thanks for the time. Enjoyed the vacation.

Speaker 2 (43:44):
Okay, you bet, Thanks, there you go.

Speaker 4 (43:46):
Matt Human has joined the program here on the Progressive guestline,
who show is called Vson Tonight eleven pm Eastern APMO
here in the West Coast.

Speaker 5 (43:51):
I don't know what he's talking about, though we know
it's going to happen in the Clippers Maverick series.

Speaker 4 (43:55):
Well you yeah, you're pretty well convinced we'll get into
the NBA up next. And does JBT think the regular
season results matter come playoff time? It's followed the Money
on Vison, the sports betting network.
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The Nikki Glaser Podcast

Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.

Music, radio and podcasts, all free. Listen online or download the iHeart App.


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