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April 16, 2024 44 mins

In hour three of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and JVT are joined by Raheem Palmer do preview the NBA playoffs, reveal their in pocket plays, and Chris Dempsey joins the show to discuss the Denver Nuggets championship repeat push.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Always follow the Money.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's why I always say you always follow. Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 3 (00:04):
This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Paully.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Howard on VSON.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in.

Speaker 4 (00:11):
It is Follow the Money here on VSON, the Sports
Betty Network. The show is brought to you by DraftKings
Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel, who was in
for Pauli Howard this week. And as always, we are
live in downtown Las Vegas from the Circa Resort and
Casino JVT. We get the two playing games tonight, two
more tomorrow and then the Game one starting this weekend.
And Raheem Palmer joins the program. Now he loves the NBA,

(00:34):
he loves to fire. He's on the Progressive guest line.
He's with the Ringer dot Com the one hundred part
of one hundred plays in the NBA Playoffs at the
website as well in the Ring of Gambling podcast as well.

Speaker 1 (00:46):
Raheem, great to talk to you man. How are you
great to see?

Speaker 3 (00:50):
Great to stick you as well. I'm very excited right now,
got the in game playoffs coming up, so the best
time of the year right now.

Speaker 4 (00:56):
Do you have a bet on the first play in
game tonight, which is the Lakers on the road against
the Pelicans. Of course, the Lakers went to New Orleans
on Sunday blew their doors off. And now this number
has been kind of it's around the money line, so
it's not the biggest of deals, obviously, but some spots
posting Pelicans still minus one. Others earlier this morning had
the Lakers minus one and a half. What are your

(01:17):
thoughts on this game tonight?

Speaker 3 (01:18):
So this game is very interesting because a lot of
times you see those two games series during the course
of the regular season that started since the COVID season,
and you have teams playing back to back in the
same venue, and a lot of times you see an
over adjustment to the spread based on what happened in
the first game. So you're the first game, we had
the Pelicans minus three and the Lakers blew them out,

(01:40):
and now you had the Lakers getting bet up to
a favorite, and now you're seeing sharp money start to
take the Pelicans because they're saying, how can that line
be three and the same venue between the same teams
and the same players, and then come back and in
the line be Lakers minus one. So now you're seeing
the sharp money on the Pelicans, and look, there's a
little present for this. I don't know if you guys

(02:01):
remember in twenty twenty one, the Golden State Warriors, they
played the Memphis Grizzlies on a Sunday. Steph Curry, you
look it up on YouTube. Steph Curry hit that big
three and he did the Baron Davis celebration. They've played
two days later and the Memphis Grizzlies knocked out the
Golden State Warriors out of the playoffs. So I think
a lot of sharps are thinking that. But when I

(02:21):
look at the matchup between these two teams, I think
it's just a bad matchup for the Pelicans. I mean,
Lebron James has absolutely dominated this team this year. Twenty
eight point three points per game, sixty percent from three,
fifty five percent from the field, twelve twelve assist per game,
six and a half rebounds, and one and a half steals.
And if you look at the four games of which
the Pelicans have played the Lakers this year, they've had

(02:42):
half core offense rings of seventy four ninety eight, one
fifteen in ninety two and the only game that they
won was the game where they made eighteen threes, so
I might find myself on the Lakers today.

Speaker 5 (02:52):
What do you make of the questionable tag for Anthony Davis?
And where does this number snap back to once he's
active for game, because we see it all the time
in the regular season.

Speaker 2 (02:59):
Right now, it's.

Speaker 5 (03:00):
Questionable line moves maybe a point half point one direction
that snaps back when he's in. What's the expectation for
Davis today you think? And where the line goes when
he's active.

Speaker 3 (03:09):
Well, you see the Sharper books are sitting at two
and minus one and a half. I think you'll probably
get back to closer to a pick them, So this
probably closes either a pick them or minus one. But
I think I mean pick them is probably you'll probably
see the Sharper books at minus one, and then I
think you'll see every other book at it close to
will pick them.

Speaker 4 (03:26):
Oh you know what, guys, as we're talking about this,
CIRCA has Pelicans minus two right now against the Lakers
at CIRCA Super Bowl.

Speaker 3 (03:33):
We're going to say that, But I didn't know if
I was allowed to stay circle on the after guys
on move by draft games.

Speaker 2 (03:38):
We're all good.

Speaker 4 (03:39):
We're broadcasting live right now. From the spot. What about
the other game that we have tonight. Now, money's been
coming in and the Warriors pretty much the entire time,
they're up to two and a.

Speaker 1 (03:46):
Half at most spots.

Speaker 4 (03:47):
I do three see a three here in Las Vegas
that's at Station Casinos, but again here at Circa they're
down to two.

Speaker 1 (03:53):
Do you have a bet on this game?

Speaker 2 (03:54):
Rahiem?

Speaker 3 (03:56):
I don't have a bet on this game, but I
think the thing that stands out to me is I
think you're going to see the public all over the Wars,
and I think you're going to see sharp money on
the Kings. I just think this game is very interesting
because obviously you look at the Kings throughout Malik Monks,
they're out Kevin Herder, but I think with Kean Ellis
and Davion Mitchell, I think the defense gets a little better.

(04:19):
You're looking at two teams who have really been locking
down defensively over the last couple of weeks and since
the alsobreaker. I think Kings are top ten in the
defensive rates last two weeks. Warriors are attempt of defensive
rad and Kings are nice. But the the wild cart
in this matchup, and I think one of the reasons
to play the Warriors is that Demonta's timotus, he's such
a big part of this Kings team. Well, he's really

(04:40):
struggled against the Wars. He was minus forty nine against
the Warriors in the postseason. He was minus eighty four
against the Warriors during his career and minus eight against
the Warriors this season. He's only going to play more minutes,
and I think he's averaging fifteen point nine points per
game against Draymond Green for his career. So I gotta
understand why the public gets all over the Warriors. But

(05:01):
I think at this current price, you're looking at minus
threes in the market. I think that's a little too steep.
So I think you're gonna see sharp, sharp, sharp money.
Just grab the number on the Kings. But I personally,
I think this is an under I noticed open up
a two twenty seven. I think you'll I mean, I
think it's two twenty four. It is probably a little
bit too high, especially when you consider that monkt hurt.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
Or out Rahiem.

Speaker 5 (05:22):
But regular season matchups are obviously a little bit different.
These teams obviously played four times with each other, but
the big difference is trace Jackson Davis only played five
total minutes in the four games he's now starting matchups.
He's been a big part of one of their betting
starting lineups. So how do you make the like, what
is the difference now with Trace Jackson Davis along with
Raymond Green in this front court? How much of a
difference does he make? And how do you take away

(05:43):
anything from a regular season when there's such a big
change with the Warrior starting lineup.

Speaker 3 (05:48):
Yeah, I don't think you can take much from it either,
and I think you if you're using full season metrics,
it's kind of a mistake just based on how the
Warriors have played this season. I think the only thing
that you can really take from it, I mean, it's
just how well Draymond Green has played against the Bonus
and how much the Bonus has really struggled against this
Warriors team. So I definitely think that makes a huge impact.

Speaker 4 (06:11):
Follow the money here on viisen d Sports Betting Network.
Rahem Palmer our guest on the Progressive guest Line. The
Ringer dot Com is the website. He also is going
to do the one hundred again this year at The Ringer,
where he's going to give out one hundred bets during
the NBA Playoffs and the Ringer Gambling podcast as well.

Speaker 1 (06:27):
How about the games that we have tomorrow night. JBT
mentioned earlier he's.

Speaker 4 (06:31):
Probably going to take the Hawks again because he's you know,
he's like me. I was snake bitten with the Hawks
this year betting on them.

Speaker 1 (06:39):
They would lose.

Speaker 4 (06:39):
Betting against him, they would beat me. They're getting three
against the Bulls tomorrow night. Initial thoughts on this game
rahiem So.

Speaker 3 (06:46):
I'm going to take the Hawks and I'm waiting for
the public to bet this up and I'm hoping it
goes up. A lot of people are all on the Bulls.
I haven't spoken to one person who said they like
the Bulls in this matchup. And for me, if if
you look at the Bulls this year, if they've played
forty four clutch games, and we all know how the
NBA dot Com the defense clutch Games's games where the
game is in the last five minutes of the game

(07:07):
with the points the virtual is five or less. They're
twenty seven and seventeen against the clutch with the net
rating of twenty three and a half. But we know
there's a lot of variance to that. But if you
look at all the clutch games that they played, they're
basically telling you that this is going to be a
one or two possession game, because that's all they played
all this year. Now, when you look at the Hawks,
they're they've been lighting teams up from three lately. And

(07:28):
I know they haven't been good against uspread a year,
but the Bulls are second in opponent three point shooting
percentage since the All Star Break. A lot when I'm
a thirty eight percent from three and twenty ninth in
opponent three point shooting frequency, the Hawks are top ten
in both of those categories since the ausin breaks, you
should thirty seven percent from three. So I think they
should be able to light up this Bulls team from

(07:50):
behind the art. And I think you got Trey Young back.
I just think it's this is this is a game
where I think the Hawks can hit more shots. And
look they played on April four. This is one of
my first picks for one hundred. Hawks won one thirteen,
one oh one on the roll and they were eighteen
of thirty eight from behind the part. And then let's
look at some trends. The Bulls are eighteen and thirty

(08:11):
eight twenty eighteen to twenty three against the spread. At home,
they're just ten and ten to fourteen and one as
a home favorite this year, just forty one percent, and
they failed to cover three straight at home and six
out of their last seven at home. So that tells
me that the Bulls are they're just being overvalue in
this spot because people are looking at the full season
metrics on the Hawks. Before the All Star Break, Hawks

(08:33):
had a net rating of minus eight point seven. Post
All Star Break, Hawks have a net rating of minus
one point four. So these are two equally matched teams,
but the Hawks are the better three point shooting team,
and we know this game's going to come down to
the clutch. So I'm taking the Hawks here with the
plus three, and I'm hoping I can get a better number.

Speaker 5 (08:51):
YEP, I would agree with all those points, all right,
So let's go to your neck of the woods. Then,
Miami taken on Philadelphia. Rahiim four and a half. The
predominant number totals from two os and a half up
to two oh eight, so you can get whatever number
you want here for the total. I believe in your
seventy six ers. I think here in the spot against Miami.
What say you?

Speaker 3 (09:08):
I believe in the Philadelphia seventy six Ers as well.
I mean, you're talking about a team that was sixteen
to twenty seven without Joel ANDB net rating of minus
three point seven with Joel MB thirty one and eight
net rating of ten point five. So I mean with
the two games in which Joel and B has played
against this Miami eight team, they absolutely dominated. And I
look at Tyrese Maxi. He's averaged twenty seven point three

(09:31):
points per game against the Heat this year, and he
had a game in which he had just twelve points.
So for me, I'm looking at Tyrese Maxi over twenty
three and a half points. Now, I think that line
is sure. If the Sixers are going to win this game,
it's going to be because of Tyres Maxi and Joel
and B. I think the Sixers could have done with
the four and a half. But I really like that
Maxi problem.

Speaker 2 (09:51):
Raheem.

Speaker 4 (09:51):
We have a two minutes left in this segment, assuming
you're correct they win this game to the seven seed
against the Knicks, what would you make a series price
on that?

Speaker 1 (10:00):
And would you like the Sixers chances to win it?

Speaker 2 (10:02):
Outright?

Speaker 3 (10:04):
I would probably make it around And this one was
tough for me because I can't really model the Sixers
this year with you know, all of the yeah sures
of Joel and B. But it'd probably be around Nicks
minus one, forty one fifty or something like that. It's
just really tough for me to come up with a
line right now.

Speaker 4 (10:21):
Okay, okay, would you think over seven games though, and
even the season that Brunson had, I think that he
deserves an MBC MVP consideration.

Speaker 1 (10:32):
Not that he had to win, but he should be
in the mix.

Speaker 4 (10:34):
Is mb the best player on that court for a
seven game series, even though like the full health is
maybe still a little bit up in the air.

Speaker 3 (10:42):
I think Brunson is the best player at this point
in time, just because at least when it comes to
Joel and B you just don't know. I mean, over
a course of a seven game series, you just I mean,
we've seen him in the postseason struggle and now I
mean he's coming in off of him in this injury.
It's just really tough and I just think Jellen bronstons
he should be First team or NBA, but we know

(11:03):
it's probably not gonna happen.

Speaker 4 (11:05):
Yep, all right, Hank tight, We're gonna kick around some
more NBA numbers with you. Next, it's Follow the Money
here on vson D Sports Betty Network. Raheem Palmer, our
guest from The Ringer dot Com, and he is doing
something called the one hundred again at the website, one
hundred NBA bets over the span of the playoffs.

Speaker 1 (11:21):
We'll get into the round one.

Speaker 4 (11:23):
Series prices that we have if he didn't bet the
Pelicans at this point.

Speaker 1 (11:28):
Actually, that number is way way gone.

Speaker 4 (11:30):
Now, what do you actually think there might be some
value on the bucks now that it's come down where
it is and they're laying around minus one seven you
we'll get his thoughts on that and the MAVs Clipper series.

Speaker 1 (11:39):
Next, I Follow the Money. It's VSA D Sports Betty Network.

Speaker 2 (11:59):
Vson dot Com. Check it out now.

Speaker 5 (12:00):
We've got all of the inside getting you ready for
the NBA play in and play offs with the series
set or NBA postseason primer up right now. You can
check it out at vson dot com, as well as
the articles in every single sport, every single day and
Burke with the Major League Baseball Best Bets and more.

Speaker 2 (12:14):
Vson dot com.

Speaker 1 (12:15):
We continue with gambler Raheem Palmer.

Speaker 4 (12:18):
He is with the Ringer dot com and he's doing
something called the one hundred on the website. Hunter bets
on the NBA Playoffs. Over the course of the entire thing,
he joins us here on the Progressive guest line. So, Raheem,
did you grab a little bit of a Pacers series
price against the Bucks before the Yannis news anticipating that
he might not be ready for game one? And if
you didn't, with the current change in that number, do

(12:42):
you actually think there might be some value on the
Bucks as low as it got.

Speaker 3 (12:47):
I do think there's some value on the Bucks at
this current number. I'm seeing like minus one fifty four
on the Bucks. But I think the biggest thing for
me is that I do want to wait to find
out this Gianna news because you know he has the
same injury Kevin Durant had in twenty nineteen calf injury tours.
I mean like it was a calf's strain, I believe,

(13:07):
and Kevin Durant missed three weeks and when he came back,
he tore his achilles. I actually tore my calf back
in twenty twenty two and I'm not like a high
level athlete, but it had me down for quite a while.
So I think the biggest thing with the NBA these
days is that these teams like to you know, they
like to be secretive and have you game plan for
multiple options. So there's a scenario where you know, indianterplacers

(13:30):
can go in there and beat the Bucks in game
one and then you're in a tough spot. So I
don't want to really grab anything right now.

Speaker 4 (13:38):
Okay, fair enough. Is there a scenario here and I've
seen this kicked around. Maybe you believe in this where
Giannis has turned into kind of a boss stopper on
offense and with him out, potentially here this could be
Damian Lillard that we had in Portland for so many years.

Speaker 3 (13:55):
See, I want to believe it, but based on how
Damian Lillard has played this year, I'm having trouble believing that. Like,
this game does not look like the same guy at all.
I mean, like you look at that game against the Magic.
The Magic, I mean, this guy was two for fourteen
for sixteen points and that game meant something. So like
I just I just don't know how you trust this team,

(14:16):
right now, and it's just since the All Star Break,
this team has just, I mean been absolutely abysmal. You're
talking about a team who lost to the Wizards, they
lost to the Raptors, they lost to the Grizzlies, all
at home in a row as double digit favorite. So like,
as much as there's value from a numbers perspective, I
need you got to show me something. They're fourteen and
twelve since the All Star Break net rating of plus

(14:38):
one and a half. So while there's value from just
a numbers perspective, like, show me something first.

Speaker 2 (14:45):
So raheem.

Speaker 5 (14:45):
One of the things that I keep pointing out here
with this series is the changes for both teams right
since they last met. Pascal Siakams down Indiana Pacer, your
favorite head coach, Doc Rivers is now in charge of
the Milwaukee Bucks. What are these changes mean? Because you
look at some of the numbers for Indiana posts to
Siakam trade, they're slower, they don't run and transition as much,
they're not as effective in transition off of live rebounds,

(15:08):
and frankly, since Tyres Halliburton's come back from injury, rahim
he has not been the same in any way, shape
or form. Especially with his efficiency numbers. Are we still
going to get the same team that would exploited this
Bucks team in transition the way they did in those
early games before January.

Speaker 3 (15:21):
I don't think we are, and I think that's where
the Sharks. I mean, you're going to see shars with
that argument for the Bucks here, because we all know
playoff basketball is in an entirely different game than a
regular season, and it's tough to imagine that a lot
of what Indiana did in the regular season is going
to translate into the postseason. And you got to remember,

(15:42):
they don't have Ill, they don't have Mavern Macknun's out
for the season. They traded Hill, so the shooting is
not going to be the same. And then Halli Burton
hasn't looked like the same guys, So while they do
have Siakam, it's just tough to imagine that they're going
to be able to exploit this Bucks team in the
same way. So I'm still like sitting back and waiting.

(16:03):
I think if you grab the Pacers with the earlier number,
you're in a really good spot. But at this point
in time, it's either Bucks or passed, and me personally
based on what I've seen recently, I'm going to pass.

Speaker 1 (16:13):
You're going to pass.

Speaker 4 (16:14):
Okay, which series price sticks out the most to you
that's currently available on the betting board.

Speaker 3 (16:22):
I think it is. I mean, well, the Mavericks have
already gotten that up. I like the Mavericks, but I'm
starting to like this Orlando Magic team. And look, yeah,
because I mean, look, my model likes the Magic and
I look at this Cavs team. We all know that
they take down the stretch to get the Cavaliers. I
know the Magic can't score, but there are top ten

(16:43):
defense and you look at the Cavs versus top ten
defenses this year nine to fifteen, twenty fifth is spread
differential minus three point four. And since the All Star Break,
you're talking about a team who is just twelve and
seventeen since the All Star Break net rating of minus
three point six twenty second month NBA teams, they're twenty
for offensive rating and twenty different defensive rate. So Donovan Mitchell, look,

(17:06):
if you look, and this is the craziest stat I
always laugh at it every year, but if you look
at like the top ten scores in points per game
in the postseason, Donovan Mitchell is like six or seven.
But Donovan Mitchell is not that same guy right now,
Like he looks like I mean, the worst kept secret
in the league is that he's on his way out.

(17:27):
But also he's been dealing with a knee injury. He's
played seven games since the All Star breaks, so I
don't think he's that same guy. And I think if
he's not that same guy, with how this Cavs team
has struggled against top ten defenses, I think the Magic
might be able to sneak this out just based on
their defense. And then imagine, you know, Donovan Mitchell on
a bum knee has to deal with with Suggs. This

(17:47):
is one of the best perimeter defenses, I mean, defensive
players in the league. So I'm definitely taking the Magic
plus four and a half of Game one, and I
kind of want to sprinkle something on them to get
getting this series done because we all know the acid. Well, guys,
they don't reward whatever the Cavs did the other day.

Speaker 5 (18:05):
Yeah, well we've seen the Clippers get burned by that too,
So let's go there. Why in the world would you
bet against future NBA Finals champion Los Angeles Clippers in
the first round.

Speaker 3 (18:14):
Run, I mean the Clippers. Look, outside of that run,
this Clippers team has, I mean, they've kind of looked
like a mess. And you look since the All Star break,
this Clippers team has not been the same. They're fifteen
and fourteen net ring of minus, they're at half point.
I just think the Mavericks are rolling right now. We

(18:34):
know what that new start line up. They've had one
of the best defense in the league. And are we
sure Kawhi Leonard is healthy. They're very secretive about it,
and it's just like it wouldn't surprise me if Kawhi
Leonard miss game won, And I think you're kind of
getting a bargain on the Dallas Mavericks, who've been playing
lights out now. I think the counter argument against the

(18:54):
Dallas Mavericks is that they haven't really beaten too many
teams above five hundred. They're just twenty seven against teams
above five hundred. But the way the Clippers are playing,
they're playing like a five hundred team. So I think Luca, like, look,
what are they saying to guy five? Luca Brose sleeps
with the fishes. He's sleeping with the fishes. The last
two times he played the Clippers. I don't think he

(19:16):
sleeps with the Fishes this year. I think the Mavericks
get it done. So even at minus one twenty, I'm
seeing value on the Mavericks.

Speaker 4 (19:21):
Raheem who comes out of the West.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
It's it's very hard to say anybody but Denver. But
if it's not Denver, it's going to be the Mavericks.
It's actually going to be the it's going to be
the winner of this mav Clippers series.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
Oh it's not Denver, that's goods Well accept that.

Speaker 1 (19:42):
What do you think of OKAC overall?

Speaker 3 (19:45):
I love OKC, but I just I think they're struggle.
They're going to struggle inside, and I think that's the
scary thing. Like I think if this was the league
like three year, three, four years ago when the Wars
were making a run, where everybody was going small, Oh,
that would be great. But now you've got to have
size to you. I don't think you're gonna be able
to deal with let's just say that they played the Lakers,

(20:07):
or they played Minnesota, or they played Denver. I just
think we just haven't seen young teams perform like this
in the postseason, so I can't buy in on them,
but it wouldn't surprise me if they made a deep
run to the Western Conference finals. But at some point,
I don't think they have the experience.

Speaker 5 (20:25):
Iraen last two minutes with you here, I've kind of
figured we saw this coming. I was actually hoping Phoenix
would get Oklahoma City in the first round so I
could bet against them. Figured the market would very much
be all over the Suns. They're not favorites in the
series against Minnesota. Do you trust the Suns?

Speaker 3 (20:42):
This is a tough series. This is a very tough
series for me, just because all the models say take Minnesota,
but we know that this is a pretty bad matchup
for them. And if you look at the Wolves in
the clutch, they can't score in the clutch. And I
trust Bradley Bill, I trust Devin Booker Kevin Durant in

(21:02):
the clutch to hit their shots. I think this is
a series where you just play on the zigxact theory.
I think whoever wins game one, you take them game two.
I think this is probably going to be a two
two series in a long series, so I'm going to
be looking to play like series long props. I think
Rudy Gobert is going to have a monster series. It's
gonna be serious. There's any games where he's gonna have

(21:22):
double digit points and double digit rebounds and just going
to destroy the sun that they're going to get into
foul trouble. So this is a long series and that's
how I'm going to try to play it.

Speaker 1 (21:30):
All right, very good.

Speaker 4 (21:32):
You can get Raheem's plays in the one hundred at
the Ringer dot com the Ringer Gambling podcast as well
follow him on x at I Am Roster Dramas. That
was awesome, Rahem thinks much for the time, Good luck
betting the playoffs.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
Thanks for having me. I appreciate y'all.

Speaker 2 (21:45):
Yeah, be good.

Speaker 1 (21:47):
He joined us here in the progressive guest.

Speaker 2 (21:48):
Line right the Twitter handle.

Speaker 4 (21:51):
You guys are in lockstep in a lot of that stuff,
except for his prediction of the Mavericks.

Speaker 5 (21:54):
Yeah well, and I also think too what he's right
in the reason why this is gonna come back and
burn me. Let's play this over and over again with
a laugh track when it burns me. I'm trusting that
what the Clippers are saying is true and that Kawhi
Leonard is healthy.

Speaker 2 (22:12):
You're better than that. I trust behind should be You
should be better. I should be better than that. A
team that is actively lied about his name multiple times.

Speaker 1 (22:19):
Now, good luck pal, Yeah, he was questionable with a
torn Aco.

Speaker 4 (22:23):
We'll get into the Nuggets up next with Chris Dempsey
Altitudes Sports in Denver. If the Lakers win tonight, do
they give the Nuggets a better series than last year
when they were swept.

Speaker 1 (22:33):
Let's follow the money on Vson d Sports petty.

Speaker 5 (22:35):
Network now ninety two percent of the handle seventy seven
percent of the bets on the Golden State Warriors minus
two and a half in their matchup with the Sacramento Kinges.
You can see that information of more right now. Vson

(22:55):
dot com slash splitz page is open to anybody.

Speaker 2 (22:57):
That's right.

Speaker 5 (22:58):
I don't even have a vsent Pro subscription. I'm looking
at it right now. Check it out Visa dot com slash.
But we'll continue to here talking NBA.

Speaker 4 (23:04):
Chris Dempsey joins the program now Nuggets reporter and analyst
for Altitude Sports. Also, we'll get his thoughts on bo
Nicks going number twelve overall. Question mark to the Broncos
coming up here in a few minutes. Chris, thanks for
the time today. I'll begin with this. Excuse me. Of course,
the Lakers were swept by the Nuggets last year in
the Western Conference Finals.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
Did not go well for LA. It's not a great
matchup for this team.

Speaker 4 (23:26):
But I will ask you, if the Lakers win this
game tonight, and that's the two to seven matchup we
get in the West, do you think the Lakers make
it a little more interesting this year against Denver?

Speaker 6 (23:37):
I don't, okay, but you know what, But no, I'll
say this about the Lakers. You know, I think the
version of that basketball team that has ended this regular
season is actually it's a much better version than the
Nuggets played last year in the Western Conference Finals. So
in those games, even though it was a sweep, obviously

(23:58):
there was fourth quarter games because we're able to get
to push the Nuggets at least within those games, Nuggets
were able to close them out each time. So do
I think it would be an interesting series? Yeah? I do.
I mean, look, Lebron's gonna score a bunch of points.
You never know what you're gonna get with Anthony Davids,
although he's playing obviously much better, Just to you know,

(24:20):
is he gonna give you thirty and then go twelve,
the next game is kind of what they obviously they
want to avoid. But ultimately I think the Nuggets would
win that series. I don't think the Lakers would get
swept this year. I don't think that would be a thing,
but certainly the Nuggets would prevail in five or six games.

Speaker 5 (24:38):
So, Chris, obviously, the bench for Denver looks a little
bit different than it did last year when they won
the postseason. Reggie Jackson has a pretty big role here.
What do you make of just the difference in this
bench and the depth for Denver and how that translates to,
you know, looking maybe a little bit different from the
guys like Bruce Brown and of course Jeff Green, who
contributed in a big way last season.

Speaker 6 (24:55):
Yeah, it's a big deal. It's a lot different because
Bruce Brown was kind of a Swiss army, and I
if he could just do whatever you needed to do.
You needed some ball handling, he could do that. He
needed to score, he could do that. Obviously as a defender,
he was one of the best on the team. And
so in one player, they don't have that the way
they had that in Bruce Brown and so, but they

(25:17):
have that, and they have some of his traits in
three players, and so what I think we'll see is
is Reggie Jackson, Peyton Watson, and Christian Brown be the
main players off the bands. He might be the only
as the playoffs go on, they might be the only
players coming off the bench. I fully expect the Nuggets
to also use Aaron Gordon at the center spot again

(25:38):
the way they did last season.

Speaker 3 (25:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (25:40):
Absolutely, So you know, look at Reggie Jackson. If he
can just score consistently, that's that's been the big deal.
I mean, when he has scored, he has looked great
and running that second unit. And they'll also keep Jamal
Murray on the court with that second unit as well,
so you have either Jamal or Joker or both on

(26:03):
the court for every minute of a basketball game. So
Jambal's presence with that second unit also helps greatly. But
they do need Reggie Jackson to score and score consistently,
and then they need defensive effort from Christian Brown and
Peyton Watson. And Peyton Watson is a guy who has
now collected something like my last four games, something like

(26:23):
fifteen blocks in the last three or four games. So
he is a guy that can certainly bring in on
the defensive end.

Speaker 5 (26:29):
You know why they called Reggie Jackson Big Government Mitch,
because he's always bailing you.

Speaker 6 (26:34):
Out there there you go, Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 4 (26:38):
Well, Chris, he did not bail him out against the
Spurs over the weekend. What was the reaction by the
players and the coaches when they blew that game and
a chance really at the one seed?

Speaker 6 (26:48):
Yeah, that was that was as dejected a locker room
and a plane ride cock, quite honestly, as I've seen
all season long. Because you know that, you feel like
when they beat the Minnesota Timberwolves a couple of days before,
you that that that was the that was the you
did the heavy lifting at that point. Yeah, and now

(27:12):
you knew you had two bad record teams to end
the season, and and like San Antonio, think about the
San Antonio game as well as they if you were
even going to be complacent at any point in that game,
that would have been a hard team to do that against,
because just a week prior, they pushed the Nuggets in
a game in Ditver, and so you knew what you

(27:33):
were facing with that San Antonio Spurs team. And and
so to get up by twenty three to then take
your foot off the pedal and and and I will
say this, this was one, this is one of the
kind of the the bad cracks in their armor. Over
the course of the season, they had a great record
against teams that were under five hundred, but in those games,

(27:54):
if they were up big, they almost always took their
foot off the off the gas pedal and and never
really got burned. They just flipped the switch at some
point and won the game anyway. And that was the
day that it burned them, And it was really really
bad for them. But I was, you know, for them
to be able to still finish second, I think was deserving.
That's like, they won four more games they did last season.

(28:17):
They won a title last season, so could they finished second?
And they did, and I think that was a deserving
spot for them.

Speaker 4 (28:23):
Follow the money Here on vsen d Sports Betty Now
were Chris Dempsey, our guest Nuggets reporter and analysts for
All to Dude Sports in Denver. He's here on the
progressive guest line. So let's pretend you're right for a second.
Here they get by the Lakers. They're looking at the
winner of Phoenix in Minnesota. Both those teams played the
Nuggets well, this season, would you give either one of
those teams like a legit chance to actually beat Denver

(28:45):
in a seven game series?

Speaker 6 (28:47):
Yeah, Minnesota, I would. Minnesota is really good. And you know,
I think for the biggest I of relief for the
Nuggets is that that they would have home court in
that scenario, because if Minnesota were to have home court
in that scenario, that would be a very very difficult
task for for for for the Nuggets to come out

(29:08):
of that series in seven games. I mean, I could
see a that series basically the home team just winning
every single game, you know, and and the Nuggets winning
in seven. Uh. The Phoenix Suns is an interesting basketball
They are interesting basketball team. But you know, I think
that their last game of the season at Minnesota is
exactly how they envisioned themselves looking the entirety of the season.

(29:32):
But the reality, yeah, but the but the reality of
the situation is they just did not play that way.
And you know, and and and partly because those players,
you know, Beal and Booker and Durant were not able
to be on the court for the lion's share of
the season, that was obviously part of it, but also
because their defense, defense is wishy washy, and it's kind
of in and out. You never know what you're gonna

(29:52):
get on that end of the court. Sometimes one of
those three players also has an off night and that
seems to to greatly affect their chances of wearing on
that particular night. So the Phoenix Suns, I would need
to see them actually do this thing through an entire
playoffs to believe that they are who they want to be,

(30:14):
Whereas the Minnesota Timberwolves have shown this this the entire
season and although I think troubling for them is the
way Phoenix defended Anthony Edwards in that game. Is that
a way that can be copied and if it's copied
by other teams, does that immediately make them vulnerable to

(30:37):
losing a series. They got to get that sorted out
and make sure that Anthony Edwards can score the way
he needs to score to have the impact on the
game so that they can continue to move on. But
I think of those two teams and Nuggets would be
a lot more a lot more pushed by Minnesota.

Speaker 5 (30:54):
All Right, So let's transition over the National Football League
Broncos twelfth overall pick.

Speaker 2 (30:59):
Is this really gonna be Bonnicks.

Speaker 6 (31:02):
Now, I don't think so. Not at twelve. I think
if the Broncos take bo Nicks, they'll trade down to
do that. I fully expected the the Broncos to try
to trade up, to be honest with you, I I
still think that they have eyes for JJ McCarthy and
if they can put together a package that can move
them up to that four uh, then then then they

(31:24):
will do that. You know, you know, the Arizona Carginals
are in just a great spot, man, because so many
quarterback needy teams. They all have to all want to
move up to about that spot to get them, and
so they can just kind of pick and choose the
package as they want, and so can The question is
can the Broncos offer something that Arizona would want over
something that Minnesota would be offering them as well. I

(31:46):
think that's their first choice. If they pick at twelve.
I think they don't pick a quarterback at twelve. I
think they pick Brock Boers or just one of the
great players that's gonna that's probably gonna get pushed down
because so many quarterbacks are gonna get taken early on
in that first round. And then again, if if they
do Bonix. It's going to be a trade down situation,
a trade back situation and then you know, maybe get

(32:09):
another pick as well, take bon MITx and then whatever
else they need for for for their team. But it's
been an interesting, interesting question. I do a radio show
here in town, and you know, trying to put your
finger on what is going to happen with this football
team has been This has been one of the hardest
years to figure that out, and because they just they

(32:32):
need so many things on offense. But you know, they
need a quarterback, but they're in a weird situation that
they cannot necessarily. There's so many quarterback meeting teams. Can
you get the guy that you want? I think Michael
Pennriks Junior here is also a sleeper for for for
the Broncos, so I wouldn't rule out them kind of
snatching him at some point either.

Speaker 4 (32:51):
You can listen to Chris on his radio show Altitude
Sports Radio ninety two point five from ten until noon
in the great City of Denver. Follow him on x
at Chris a dem See Chris. That was a great spot.
Thanks so much for the time today.

Speaker 6 (33:03):
Yeah, absolutely, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1 (33:05):
Chris joined us on the progressive guest line up.

Speaker 4 (33:07):
Next, we'll recap our in pocket place last night and
tell you what we're betting coming up on Follow the Money.

Speaker 1 (33:12):
It's vs in the Sports Betting Network.

Speaker 3 (33:42):
The guy has an algorithm to determine the winner of
any given college basketball games. Someone gives you ten thousand
to one on anything, you take it, take it.

Speaker 2 (33:53):
I'll bet you twenty bucks. I can get you gambled
before the end of the day.

Speaker 3 (33:55):
No way, or give you three to one odds none
from five to one.

Speaker 1 (33:59):
In serious all right, loser.

Speaker 4 (34:02):
Yesterday in Major League Baseball, Yankees did not get the
job done. They couldn't really muster anything offensively against Chris Bassett.
The good news is Toronto really did nothing on offense either,
because Luis Heel walked seven.

Speaker 1 (34:17):
Guys and they only scored three runs overall in the game. Loser.
More on that in a minute.

Speaker 4 (34:24):
He didn't have six strikeouts, by the way in the game,
so that was a loser. Pending grabbed the Pacers plus
one ninety five on the series price, adding today, there's
a reason why I'm going to go under Yuseay Kakuchi
on the k prop, which just five and a half
minus one oh five as we speak now, so far
off to a rip ron start eleven point four to

(34:45):
nine k's per nine fairy good. Last two starts nine
k's and seven k's, his k prop was five and
a half each time. It's at that number again today
against the Yankees. Bassett went under his k prop last night.
That now is nine straight opposing Yankee starters staying under
their k prop. Nine straight opponents to face. The Yankees

(35:11):
have gone under their k prop. They strike out nineteen
point one percent of the time. That is tied for
the fifth best mark or fifth lowest mark in Major
League Baseball. With the pod race, they don't strike out
that often. I don't think they will against Kakuchi in
this game today. I'm betting him under five and a
half for the k prop.

Speaker 2 (35:29):
Here.

Speaker 4 (35:30):
I would also look at maybe Rodin going over four
and a half in this game. Blue Jays strike out
a lot. Opposing starters are thirteen to three over their
k prop against Toronto this year. I got Lakers money
line plus one oh five against the Pelicans. That number
is available at many spots right now. The Pelicans are
laying two several books. I think they win the game.
Move on and take on the Nuggets and uh jbt

(35:52):
to here point, Well, you know what, you have that
back coming up too, so you'll expand on that.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
And this is.

Speaker 4 (35:59):
Via Paul Howard out this week on a vacation. Peter Burrow,
you know the deal. It's like, but thirty two and
five over something like that, thirty four and five overrun
over two and a half goals minus one ninety is
the play. I guess we'll put this on my mark.
If this is a loser, goes on Paulie's record, but
if it's a winner, goes on mine.

Speaker 1 (36:18):
Peter Burrough to do it league one over two and
a half goals.

Speaker 4 (36:21):
And like I said, I have the Pacers penny plus
one ninety five yesterday I grabbed that before the Yannis news.

Speaker 1 (36:27):
I got I bet it again actually a plus one
sixty five.

Speaker 2 (36:29):
Yeah, you figured that would be the case.

Speaker 5 (36:31):
He is in doubt, made too much sense, all right, angels,
first five, This is a tough one to take on
the chin. Actually, a couple of folks in the follow
the Money Army, if you will, sent me some tweets
yesterday with some condolences, and I think a couple of
people were in on it too. Patrick Sandoval pitched a
gym yesterday, Mitch he did Yep, went into the bottom
of the fifth inning without a blemish. Problem was Angels
gave him no support, so it's scoreless going into it.

(36:53):
Then of course allows the first three guys to reach.

Speaker 2 (36:56):
Looks like maybe he's gonna get out of it.

Speaker 5 (36:58):
I even got a guy out at home and then
ultimately just let's one squeak through and lose it one nothing.
Bottom of the fifth inning is how you lose the
half run plus at even money there, So we move on.
You mentioned it. We're on the same thing here. Lakers
money line plus one oh five against the Pelicans. For me,
it's all about this defense and what the Pelicans are
going to be able to do to change things on

(37:19):
that end of the four and I just don't think
there don't they're not going to be able to when
you talk about a team that has been able to
get to the free throw line as often as the
Lakers have and not give up free throw something the
Pelicans want to do. The fact that they have taken
over forty percent of their attempts at the rim against
the Pelicans and shot seventy six percent on those attempts.
Jonas Valanciunas has no option defensively. He can't guard Anthony Davis,

(37:39):
he can't guard Lebron James. Zion Williamson hasn't done well
against Roriey Hodgemoor hasn't done well against Lebron James. I
think the Lakers are going to have their offensive success here.
You're gonna be able to get in here, get this
win out, right, Let's go Lakers money line.

Speaker 4 (37:50):
You also brought up during one of the breaks, You're
expecting Anthony Davis to be announced a full go in
this game at some point today.

Speaker 1 (37:57):
Yeah, and when that happens, the number is probably going
to shift back a little bit.

Speaker 2 (38:01):
I would assume that's going to be the case. We
see that all the time, right, He's questionable.

Speaker 5 (38:04):
If you get a small move in the opposite direction,
it's very small, you can kind of, as I say it,
like steal some coov here and there. With spots like this,
You expect that Anthony Davis is going to be out
there today. Once he's officially announced his in probably goes
back to like one, maybe picking some spots, as we
talked about with Rahem Palmer from The Ringer and I
think you're you're grabbing plus one one oh five and
probably looking at it like minus one fifth minus one

(38:24):
tennis clothes there on the money line.

Speaker 4 (38:25):
I don't miss out at any of the NBA playoff
action at Draft Kings sports Book and official sports betting
partner of the NBA, from the playing tournament through the finals.
Draft Kings sports Book as you covered with same game
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Download the Draft Kings sports Book app and use the
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(38:45):
hundred dollars in bonus bets instantly. That's code vsin only
at Draft Kings. The crown is yours. I wanted to
quickly give you some reaction. We had a hedging discussion
on the show an hour ago. If you missy, you
can search follow all the money wherever you your podcast.
Go back and look at the back end of the
It would have been eight a m. Eastern hour. This

(39:06):
is from Loof and o'carl. Covering bets is a part
of business. I use future wagers solely as a device
to ensure that I make it a posit. It's business,
and you take your money to the bank. Not positive ev.

Speaker 2 (39:22):
Okay, I don't think I understand what that is. Sure
you do read that again?

Speaker 1 (39:29):
You take your money to the bank and not positive
via right.

Speaker 4 (39:33):
Yes, you could have all the positive ev in the
world that you have closing line value. It could still
be a loser. You're not taking to the bank with you.
You lock in stuff. Other people are giving me feedback
on the cash out option.

Speaker 1 (39:48):
This is from Jason.

Speaker 4 (39:49):
Jason the cash out offers are sporadic in New York,
not on every bet, and then saw this feedback as
well that the cash out offers really vary between book
as far as offering them. Some books will actually take
a player cash out option away if the player uses.

Speaker 1 (40:06):
It too often. Really interesting.

Speaker 4 (40:09):
One can have the same exact bet as a friend
and one will have a cash out offer and the
other will not.

Speaker 2 (40:15):
Wow, that's interesting.

Speaker 5 (40:17):
Yeah, I haven't seen them very often, like I was
telling you, you know, like they're sitting around in like
Live bet and NBA and stuff like that they'll give
you cash out options. At least I've seen them pretty
frequently with those, uh huh. But yeah, it's been few
and far between, and I don't think I've got these futures.
I don't think I have a cash out option on
the Timberwolves indoor. Well, not the Clippers because that's here,

(40:38):
But yeah, I don't think I have a cash out
option for the Timberwolves for sure.

Speaker 4 (40:41):
I was surprised because I had that open ended parlay
and I needed Scheffler to win the Masters.

Speaker 1 (40:48):
Yeah, and Yu Khan was the other leg it already cashed.

Speaker 4 (40:50):
I was never once offered the cash out yet I
have I think four futures to win the College World Series,
and I presently have a cash out option on every.

Speaker 1 (40:59):
Single one of them. Yeah, So what do you see
from Adam Schefter?

Speaker 5 (41:02):
How about this Schefter was on let's see, I don't
know which show, whatever ESPN show was doing this. This
was a later yes late yesterday, but quote, I think
there's gonna be at least five quarterbacks going the first
possibly all six. We mentioned these teams in the quarterback
market that aren't talked about enough. What about the Los
Angeles Rams with Stafford having no guaranteed money after this year,
Dallas with Dak at his last year in Atlanta wanting

(41:23):
quarterback insurance behind.

Speaker 1 (41:25):
Kirk Atlanta first round. That's not what he's he's saying.

Speaker 5 (41:30):
He's saying, we think at least five, possibly all six
go in the first round. No, you gotta think you
mean if the Falcons are going to trade back in
he said first, I mean, I guess they're not. Why
would you sacrifice assets to go get a guy that's
not going to contribute to you in the next like
two years you signed Kirk?

Speaker 2 (41:46):
Why would you do that?

Speaker 4 (41:47):
I've noticed a lot of the steam wrung word, a
lot of the talking points on ESPN. First of all,
it's Jets and Cowboys every single day, Yes at nauseum,
which is just gone to the head.

Speaker 1 (41:59):
Well enough, already get it.

Speaker 4 (42:00):
But there's been a lot of talk on that network
about the Cowboys addressing the quarterback position in the draft.

Speaker 2 (42:06):
I mean, maybe you give a fifth round whatever, it's
not gonna happen to go first.

Speaker 1 (42:09):
Round right now, Dallas Cowboys quarterback that.

Speaker 2 (42:12):
Was good like that is a very good quarterback. Why
would they do that? Why in the world would they
do that?

Speaker 1 (42:18):
I don't I mean in all three of these because
in Jerry.

Speaker 5 (42:21):
Jones, right, all three of these teams have aspirations to
make it to the playoffs and potentially compete for a
Super Bowl. Why would you spend first round capital on
a quarterback that is not going to contribute for you
this year?

Speaker 1 (42:32):
And the Rams haven't had a first round pick since
twenty sixteen.

Speaker 5 (42:36):
Yep, and we're gonna go a guy who they're gonna
go at quarterback now, by the way, and not even
just quarterback. You're gonna spend that first round pick on
possibly the fifth or the sixth option.

Speaker 2 (42:45):
At quarterback in the first round.

Speaker 4 (42:47):
I don't know, man, they were a playoff team last year.
It was a great story. Stafford was awesome. They have
to go quarterback at some point. I could actually see
Rams going quarterback this year, but that would be more
along the lines of a later round pick.

Speaker 2 (42:58):
That's like Spencer Rattler is a dry yes.

Speaker 4 (43:01):
Yes, or if Penix or Knicks drop, not even Nicks,
but if Pennix is there, I've heard.

Speaker 2 (43:06):
I've heard some.

Speaker 1 (43:06):
Rumlings and Rams might actually like Pennox quite a bit.

Speaker 5 (43:09):
No, what you do is you spend a first round
pick on a guy who's going to be twenty four
when the season begins, and then you sit him for
two years.

Speaker 2 (43:14):
That's how you do it. They're supposed to do it
good plan.

Speaker 1 (43:17):
You think that's a great plan. Front office knows what
they're doing at that point.

Speaker 4 (43:20):
Actually, the front office has been despite not having those
first round picks. Look at the success the Rams have
had without them.

Speaker 2 (43:26):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (43:27):
And last year they killed the draft with no first
round pick.

Speaker 2 (43:31):
Like, think about that.

Speaker 5 (43:32):
You signed Kirk Cousins, Right, yeah, let's go draft bon Knicks,
who's twenty four.

Speaker 2 (43:35):
Let's set him for two years behind her?

Speaker 4 (43:37):
That the Cowboys could you here's a but Jerry Jones
is the ultimate wildcard.

Speaker 2 (43:43):
They did have to tackle him, right. He wanted the draft,
Johnny Manziel.

Speaker 6 (43:46):
He was.

Speaker 5 (43:47):
He wanted to take the guy was talked off the
ledge by the way, like Jordan Love sat for a
million years. He's only twenty five. Oh, like that's how
you do it. You don't do that with twenty four guys.
We're going to be twenty four.

Speaker 1 (43:57):
We're going to get six quarterbacks in the first round.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
How Falcons screw Dallas Turner? I got bone next a't overall?

Speaker 4 (44:05):
If you miss any of the show again, you can
search Follow the Money wherever you get your podcasts. We
have shows all day long on this network, including a
numbers game which is up next. You can listen at
vsin dot com. Good luck betting tonight,
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