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April 18, 2024 44 mins

In hour two of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and JVT are joined by Doug Kralstein to take a look at MLB props, and D. Orlando Ledbetter joins the show to discuss what the Falcons could do next week during the draft.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Always the money.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's what I always say.

Speaker 1 (00:03):
You always follow.

Speaker 3 (00:03):
Yeah, yeah.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Polly
Howard on Vson.

Speaker 1 (00:09):
Good to have you on board here on a Thursday morning.
It is Follow the Money on Vson, the Sports Betting Network.
This show is brought to you by Draft Kings. Mitch
Moss along with Jonathan von Tobel, who was in Pauli.
Howard Paully is on vacation this week, starting this hour
off talking betting on some props as Doug Crostein joins
the program. Now he does a great job for Action Network.

He's on x at prop bet Guy. He joins us
here in the progressive guest line, Doug, good morning, how
are things?

Speaker 4 (00:36):
What's up guys?

Speaker 1 (00:37):
How are you doing really well? So we do have
two more playing games. Uh, there is a number currently
up on the Heat Bulls. Heat's favored by about two
and a half in this game. But that's gonna be
one where I think books are going to be slow
to roll out other markets because of the Jimmy Butler injury.
Let's concentrate on the Pelicans and the Kings. Now know

Zion Williamson in this game, King's favored by one and
a half on the road. Which player or players caught
your eye with their numbers in this matchup, Doug.

Speaker 4 (01:07):
Yeah, so nos Ion obviously, that's that's a big deal
for the Pelicans, to say the least. So a guy
that I really like and a guy who I liked
in April in general, Trey Murphy on the Pelicans, who
I expect to come back into the starting lineup. He
was kicked back to the bench because Ingram came back.
But when he was playing in April, mainly without brandon Ingram,

he was playing with Zion obviously no Ingram. He was
averaging twenty points a game. He's got seventeen points a
game since the All Star breaking thirty four minutes. This
is obviously a do or die game. He has been
playing big minutes down the stretch. I expect, you know
that they can unleash him up to about forty ish
minutes today or it's sorry on Friday. So his point
line right now in DraftKings sixteen and a half, that's

one that I'm looking to lock in now because I
think that can only go up when he's confirmed to
be the starter, which I'm expecting him to be we
already know that Zion's out Ingram didn't look great at all.
I mean he only played I don't think even crack
thirty minutes. He didn't playing crunch time. So they're gonna
need scoring, and Murphy's their best bet. Besides, you know,
a banged up Ingram and CJ. McCollum in this one,

Kings give up a lot of spot up shooting. That's
Trey's forte. So I like Murphy in.

Speaker 2 (02:19):
This one, Doug. When you watch a game like that
transpire between the Pelicans of Lakers and you see a
guy like Willie Green willing being willing to not only
bench brandon Ingram because he wasn't playing very well. I mean, frankly,
I think CJ. McCollum was going to get benched until
Zion got hurt, right and they didn't really have any
other choice to put him back in there. How does
that affect you from a player prop standpoint when you
see a coach that's willing to be that aggressive and going, no,
screw this, I'll roll with Josey Alvarado and Trey Murphy

and Zion Williamson and our guys off of the bench
as opposed to some of the starters you would expect
to be out there in crunch time.

Speaker 4 (02:45):
Yeah, well, it's a little scary when, you know, when
when I'm looking at bed and over because it does
show that he is willing to go with whatever he
needs to do to win and benchao guy likes CJ,
who was on fire in the regular season. I mean,
it did definitely made sense, and it was their best
bet and their best chance to win. You know, there's
no predicting I think now without Zion and Ingram's still

not looking great, what this rotation is gonna shake out
as so I'm using my best, you know, my best
guess in terms of what I think they'll need, which
is scoring, which is why I'm going with Murphy. But yeah,
you know, it's definitely something to keep in mind if
the Pelicans do move forward that hey, you know, Willie
Green will do what he needs to do in minutes.
Maybe are in a solid in the playoffs as we thought.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
Okay, let's go to Sunday. The Mavericks are favored by
now one some spots have one and a half on
the road against the Clippers, and they keep taking money
on the series price. By the way, they keep going up.

Speaker 4 (03:38):
Up and up.

Speaker 1 (03:39):
Luca's numbers are going to be extremely high because the
way that this guy finished and played the entire year,
he's just he's superman out there. What do you what
kind of caught your eye with him? What do you
want to do with Luca?

Speaker 2 (03:50):

Speaker 4 (03:50):
You know, so look Luca, like you said, superman. He's
playing big minutes all season, averaging over nine rebounds a
game to finish the season since they moved Derek Jones
Junior into the starting lineup, which obviously worked out fantastically.
I think the Mavericks were, you know, the best team
in the NBA arguably over the stretch. Luca in the
thirteen games sample was averaging over ten rebounds a game

with him. So when I saw the rebound line at
eight and a half, yes, it's a lower volume matchup
against the Clippers, but he's hit this in mind that
he's you know, he's cleared eight and a half rebounds
in nine of the last twelve excuse me, regular season
games against LA. It's just too low for a playoff game.
He's gonna play forty minutes, maybe even more. You know,
he's already averaging ten of late, So I mean I

locked in Luke over eight and a half rebounds last night.
I think there's still some playable numbers out there, so
I hopped on that pretty quickly.

Speaker 1 (04:41):
Yeah, uh, did you have an opinion at all on
that series price? That's been JVT and I end up
talked about this a lot this week. He just keeps
going up again. I mean I saw his heisman almost
one forty five yesterday on the Mavericks in some spots.

Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, you know, I didn't jump on any early lines
like I know a lot of people obviously did, but
I definitely like the Mavericks in this one. I mean,
we don't know how healthy KWHI really is. He didn't
play an all damn stretch. The Mavericks were on fire.
The late the Clippers sorry, you know, showed, you know,
definitely stumbled a bit. It's hard to kind of flip
that switch. So I definitely think the Mavericks should have

been favored from the get go. I know they weren't.
I'm not jumping on the current price, but I think
they pull it out.

Speaker 2 (05:22):
So Doug, general question when it comes to these player props,
because you kind of and mentioned a little bit when
you see numbers that are hung up. Are they adjusted
for a playoff performances increased minutes or are these a
little bit more tied still into player averages from a
regular season, because I feel like in general, if they're
tied to regular season averages a bit more, you probably
find some value, right because the markets on accounting enough
for maybe some increased minutes for some of these best

players for sure.

Speaker 4 (05:45):
Yeah, that's the first thing I look at. You know,
like you expect some of these star players to get
a few more minutes or maybe even extra shift of
playing time. Even though it's just game one, I still
think you know, coaches love to go out win game one,
so they're going to ride their players. You know, they're
guys like guy like Luca who played big minutes but
should play even bigger minutes in the playoffs. So that's

the first thing I look at, is minute adjustice stats.

Speaker 1 (06:08):
All Right, It's followed the money here on VS and
D Sports, Betty Network. Our guest Doug Crostein, he's with
Action Network. You can follow him on X he is
at PROP that guy. So in terms of other series
prices that have been posted now, there's really only I
would say, well, there's one really prohibitive favorite that's Denver
Lane higher than three dollars against the Lakers. The Cavaliers
are a little bit shorter than two dollars against the Magic.

Everything else really much closer to a pick them. Did
you like anything? Was there a number out there that
you thought I should maybe grab a piece of that?

Speaker 4 (06:37):
Yeah, you know, it's awesome. I love that. I mean,
in the first round you're used to having heavy favorite,
Oh yeah, underdogs, but it's but the parody is incredible
this year. Look, at risk of sounding like a Homer,
I do like the Knicks. I know, you know they
opened up plus one oh five on DraftKings last night.
I think you had mentioned there now minus one oh
five that might be one I pulled the trigger on. Look,

we watched the game last night and Beat does not
look one hundred percent healthy. He does not look one
hundred percent conditioned either, and the Knicks could throw forty
eight minutes of Hartenstein and Mitch Robinson at him, which, look,
nobody can guard a healthy EMP, but those two guys
can make it as tough as almost anybody can in
the NBA. Then they stick ogn and Obi on Tyres
MAXI Jalen Brunson. I don't think the Sixers have a

good matchup for him at all. Stevencenzol has been fantastic.
I just see too many advantages for the Knicks to
make this one in home court obviously, I don't see
why they would be underdogs.

Speaker 2 (07:31):
Well, I mean by extension then, right, Dougah, there's a
pretty clear path for whoever wins this series to the
Eastern Conference Finals potentially. I mean, you could get Indiana
in the next round. It seems pretty likely. A lot
of people are making the same comp like winner of
Mavericks and Clippers Western Conference Finals. Birth seems likely and
maybe they could be the other team that gets out.
It's the same thing with this series. Is it not
in the East?

Speaker 3 (07:51):

Speaker 4 (07:51):
Yeah, for sure, for sure. I mean, we don't know
how bad Giannie is banged up, but the fact that
he's already going to miss the first few games of
this series does not bode well, and calf injuries obviously
could lead to something more significant. We don't know. But yeah,
you know, this is going to be a big series.
I know a lot was you know, made of the
Knicks potentially lose, you know, trying to lose, so they

get the three seats, so they have to play the
pacers instead of you know what winds up being the sixers.
But yeah, this one, this one's going to be an
interesting series and I could potentially see you know that
whoever wins this one winning the next one as well.

Speaker 1 (08:23):
Doug, it's a short card today in Major League Baseball.
That said, any k props at the moment that may
be worth a stab at in your opinion.

Speaker 4 (08:32):
Yeah, I you know Ryan Pepiott on the race, who
I know a lot of people are looking at to
have kinds of breakout year this year. The under of
six and a half strikeouts just makes a lot of
sense to me. You know, he's under two of three
this year, eleven of thirteen in his career. Weirdly, the
two times he went over were at cores, which might
not be might just be coincidence, but I do find

it kind of weird that he hit both in those environments.
But you know, he's facing an Angels team. It's actually
been much better from strikeout perspective of the last week.
They're only at twenty two percent strikeout rate versus raighties.
They've been hitting actually above average over that same span two.
So I think the books are devaluing the Angels a
little bit and overvaluing a guy like Peppy who just

hasn't shown that he can consistently hit this line. So
under six and a half, I think you could get
that at minus one oh five. So I'm gonna lock
that in right now.

Speaker 1 (09:21):
Very cool, follow Doug on X. He's at prop bet
guy does a great job for action. Now where can
he join us here on the Progressive guest line? Doug,
good to talk to you. Best of luck tonight and
this weekend. We appreciate it.

Speaker 4 (09:33):
Hey, thanks for having me, Guys appreciate it.

Speaker 1 (09:35):
Is it a uh get rich quick plan? Just to
bet on Nicholas batoum every every over after last night?

Speaker 2 (09:45):
Clearly that's the way to go, right. What's gonna be
interesting is, actually, let me look, have they hung up
the player? Proud for that is his point? PROP gonna
be at like twenty and a half now, right, it's
got to be the clear and obvious adjustment that you
have to make That game came out of nowhere is
the underrated aspect I know we're gonna talk about like
the three, the block, the putback that he had.

Speaker 1 (10:05):
Oh it's impossible.

Speaker 2 (10:07):
Four minutes where he's like contorting his body and putting
it back up. That was insane.

Speaker 4 (10:11):
You know what.

Speaker 1 (10:11):
I liked a little bit last night. Now it can
get in trouble. He can get in trouble for this
a little bit later on down the road. But he
knew that he had to hot the hot hand. Oh yeah, so,
I mean shots were going up. It doesn't matter if
it was from downtown to the guy in his face
or from fifteen feet tough contested. Yep, we'll see. I mean,
because if he comes out cold in the next game,

it's gonna have to be hot potato time.

Speaker 2 (10:34):

Speaker 1 (10:34):
That lasted for one game, and one game only my favorites.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
And he does those every once in a while where
he'll catch it and then a one fluid motion just
do it like he won't even bring it back down
and she's like whoop, and it'll just push it back up.
All he was feeling himself. And then when I saw
him catch it at the top of the key like
he was gonna run the offense, I was like, all right,
set it down, Nick, let's say. But hey man, he
was on that was incredible.

Speaker 1 (10:54):
So if the Heat beat the Bulls. Miami would get
Boston then as the eight to one matchup in the East.
Based on what happened last year, how many people do
you think are going to say, can't cut out the heat?
Of course most was too good Jimmy Butler in the playoffs.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
I mean that performance yesterday kind of probably emboldened to
a lot of people. I know they lost, but looked
like the zombie Heat. We're gonna do it again.

Speaker 1 (11:14):
Yeah, it really did.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
That was that first half was incredible for Philly, like
just throwing the ball directly to their defenders. They had
just played them, not even a like a week ago.
It looked like there was the first time they'd ever
seen his own defense.

Speaker 1 (11:24):
Well, that game was drunk last night. Yes, the second
quarter was all Miami, the third quarter was off Philadelphia,
and then the fourth quarter. Yes, that's right. We will
get into today's Major League Baseball card and there's a
really good race going on in what has turned into
a really fun market to bet at the start of
the season.

Speaker 2 (11:58):
Vsin dot Com slash splitzv so you can check it
out now get all the current betting splits data for
the day of action. It also works for future events
as well. So check it out now. It is open
to everybody. That's right. You don't even need a pro subscription.
Feast it dot com, slash splitz.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
Oh in three weeks so far from me in Major
League baseball, doesn't matter what it was. Strikeout prop first
five full game, oh and three loser yesterday, Ace Cardinals
first five hunderd four and a half. Nope, exploded, Blackburn
got roasted. Same thing with the A's offense. Sticks were
alive against Matts. No good. So oh in three week
in Major League baseball. Tough to grind out day to day.

I don't know. For those of you who can do it,
good for you.

Speaker 2 (12:37):
And a volume two. It's oh, it's absolutely nuts to me, NonStop.

Speaker 1 (12:42):
Actually, the best way to do baseball would probably be
just RB numbers a whole time. Oh yeah, that's that's
It's in front of your computer all day long and
just go back and forth and.

Speaker 2 (12:50):
Get the jugger urine. Just sit under you know, just
put it under your desk, just pick it up.

Speaker 1 (12:53):
Yep, stay in the same seat for twelve hours and
then there you go. Grind it out that way. The uh,
there are.

Speaker 2 (12:58):
Two the idiots on social media.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
Two things I wanted to point out today. So are
you know the Malenski Special, which is a team going
on a long road trip and then coming back home
for the first game. It's the first game back. You
might have a wife, you might have kids, you're back
at home, you see the family, the friends, whatever. And
now we're talking about no days off. By the way,
I don't think the Cubs would typically qualify here because

it was only a six game at checked out. The
Cubs do qualify the Giants, I don't think would Cubs
played a nine game West Coast road trip San Diego, Seattle, Arizona.
They do not get a day off. They're right back
at Wrigley tonight and they get well. One of the
worst teams in baseball with AJ Puck going mind you,
who's eras around six. He has fourteen walks and three

starts so far this year. Cubs with jameson Taie on
on the hill, but a buck fifty. That is a
long time away from home here, just to know something
to keep in mind. And the other one potentially would
be the Giants. Although it was only a six game trip.
They went to the East Coast, they played three in
Tampa three in Miami back today to take on a

solid Diamondbacks team Logan Web on the hill and they're
laying a buck sixty six as we speak in this game.

Speaker 2 (14:14):
I think i'd yeah, I think I'd rather go this route.
I just I don't know if I want to put
my faith in the hands of aj Pucks.

Speaker 1 (14:20):
I don't disagree.

Speaker 2 (14:22):
You know, the last start against New York and I
had the Yankees in a first five there and they
just got through. I think they were up one nothing
at the end of the first five. He walked five,
and that the Yankees only hit like two hundred a
little bit less on balls and play. It kind of
felt like he got away with one. If you look
at the underlying numbers just for the start alone, they
get an ERA that was just hovering around one, but
a FIP that was around eight. Just given how much

traffic he gave up on the base paths. I don't
want to trust my faith to that guy. But having
said that, you understand it, and Tyani mentioned getting the
first start of the season. You don't know what exactly
he's going to have, but I think I would definitely personally,
I just don't want to do that. I think I
always give Doug his Aeron credit for this one. It's like,
you know what, my be the right side, But do
you want to like, do you want to sweat that out?
Oh shit, do you want to actually sit there and

do this?

Speaker 1 (15:04):
But I will point out too just betting a Mallinsky
special blindly. And I know a couple of our viewers
have been tracking this. Chris bellm has been doing it
in the NHL, and he and Dunk has been doing
in the NBA. They've been doing a litmus test this
year just by going with every Malinsky special to see
what it's going to be. Like, great job out of
the art of those two guys, say track it for

the full year. It might be just something where if
you're thinking about the Cubs and you're leaning that way,
it might be something a factor in su just to
make you say, yeah, I was going to force it
on the Cubs anyway, and now I don't want to
bet them. Yeah, it might be enough just to get
you off a bet, as opposed to making you definitely
want to bet that just because a team is back

at home and fade them.

Speaker 2 (15:47):
Yeah, I think that makes sense. I mean, that's the
you speak that with any single trend, right, which is
you use it as part of the process, not the
entire process.

Speaker 1 (15:54):
Sure, although I don't mind. Maybe wet Web's really good. Yes,
But the Diamondbacks nothing wrong with that team.

Speaker 4 (16:04):

Speaker 1 (16:04):
I think they're pretty decent again this year.

Speaker 2 (16:06):
I mean, oh absolutely, when you look at what they've
been able to do so far at this point of
the season. I mean, record wise, it hasn't been spectacular,
but they're still checking some boxes, especially offensively. I think
that's why too, Like they're just when you're looking at
these it's a very general assumption. This is just a
generally more competent team that you're asking in this situation
to take care of business as opposed to the market.

The worst, Yeah, the worst team in baseball with a
terrible pitcher and the worst lineup in baseball to go
on the road and do that. And I think too
the Cubs might be first and way to runs create
a plus against lefties, and Pucket, of course, is a
lefty coming into that.

Speaker 1 (16:39):
I will fully admit that I like betting baseball futures
anyway more than I like the day to day stuff.
Oh yeah, A I'm better at it. B I get
more enjoyment out of it, and see the day to
day stuff is really difficult anyway. So one of the
newer markets to bet on over the last couple of
years is most wins by month, and this year, because

we had so many games scheduled for the month of
March here at CIRCA anyway, it was phrased most wins
in March and April. I think at DraftKings they phrased
it most wins by the end of April. A lot
of fun to be involved in. And what a race
we have going on JVT. The Yankees lead right now
with thirteen wins. What a come from behind win that
was yesterday against the Blue Jays against that pen, down

four to one, doing nothing, showing no signs offensively, they
put together a five spot to win the game in
Toronto to get them to thirteen wins they now get.
They finish out the month with three against Tampa, four
against Oakland, three at Milwaukee, and two l Baltimore. They're
currently leading with thirteen. Five teams have twelve wins Orioles, Guardians, Royals, Braves,

and Dodgers. And who would have thought this going into
the season that suddenly this weekend. A massive series being
played in April between Baltimore and Kansas City. Yep, and
that is in case each team with twelve wins. In fact,
you know what, So I bet two teams in this market.

One of them is Baltimore. Now they were a very
short number, it was only six to one, but I
bet them because of the schedule, thinking that Casey was
not going to be nearly this good. Because after case
they get three at EU Angels, three versus Oakland, they
close out with two against the Yankees.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
They can pull it off through that lineups good like,
and all of a sudden, they're getting these performances from
the rotation that you just never expect. Yeah, that we're
gonna happen. Brady Singer to start the season was absolutely incredible.
Other guy thinks, is Luca still pitch away?

Speaker 1 (18:38):
Like the goes off to a yeah, great start.

Speaker 2 (18:41):
They're getting these in Like I so I have I
bet them over their win total. And I thought they
were just gonna be like, hey, plucky better than you think.
I put a little bit more like, I put a
little bit on the win the division, Like they look
like they're going to be at least a pain in
the ass.

Speaker 1 (18:54):
I brought them up, brought that up last week. I
bet two futures on the Royals that was seven to
one to win the division. I took all slice of
one hundred and one to win the American League. You
ever know what have if they can make the playoffs.
Everybody is live come playoff time in Major League Baseball.

Speaker 2 (19:07):

Speaker 1 (19:07):
And I think it appears as if they have a
true ace and Cole Reagan's too.

Speaker 2 (19:11):
Yes, that killed yep, I would say so too. No,
the Royals have been a good surprise. And like you said,
I mean they went to Baltimore as a competitive series,
but they lost it earlier this month. But I wouldn't
put anything past them and their ability to take advantage
of that series at all.

Speaker 1 (19:23):
The Guardians, with twelve wins, lost last.

Speaker 2 (19:25):
Night to ten or Hawk in like ten minutes, right,
It took I.

Speaker 1 (19:28):
Think seven minutes, but he went complete game three, hit,
nine K, shutout. He was awesome. He's been terrifics so
far this year. He was down to I think around
the sixty to one neighborhood. I grabbed a little bit
more one hundred to one last night to win the
saw Young Ice might be this year's Blake Snell. Were
we were talking about that the other day. All the
numbers are gone. He might be this year's Blake Snell.

Speaker 2 (19:49):
Yeah, I wouldn't say they should have had and they
had this right. So Sanner Howick the first Major League
baseball pitcher to toss a nine plus strike or a
nine plus strikeout Maddox nine more innings, completely game shut
out under one hundred pitches in an hour or in
fifty minutes or less since Greg Maddox himself did so
on August twentieth, nineteen ninety five. They should have attracted
helmet tosses yesterday too. You know how many Guardians batters

were throwing their helmets after they could not figure him out,
the breaking stuff, everything. It was awesome watching him. He
dominated them yesterday.

Speaker 1 (20:17):
So the Guardians have one more aganst Boston, three against Oakland,
three more at against Boston at home, three at Atlanta,
one at Houston with no Shane Bieber. Might be tough
for the Guardians to pull this one off, I think.
So Royals are in the mix. Baltimore, Toronto, Detroit, Toronto again,
They're alive to win this thing.

Speaker 2 (20:36):
It sounds a lot tougher though, right when you're talking
about Baltimore Toronto, I don't.

Speaker 1 (20:41):
Know about Toronto. I don't know Toronto. I don't know, man.

Speaker 2 (20:44):
I mean, it's the very least pitching's been good. But right,
you're saying the short end of the bolt, right, we
talked about like the you know, they banged up back
into the bullpen that kind of reared it zuggily had yesterday.
I though that was a bad loss. But just in
terms of like rated opponents more coin flippy than anything else,
that's going to be pretty tough for Kansas City to
consistently went through that stretch.

Speaker 1 (21:02):
I would say, I will say, we have all these
great stories going on, right, Yeah, with these teams, who
are you know, in the Mexican to have the most
wins at the end of April? Is it just going
to be Braves or Dodgers not only at the end
of this month, but they're going to be priced at
like plus two point fifty to win every single month
in that range, they each have twelve wins, like gout
of nowhere, It's like all of a sudden, you're like, okay,
they each have twelve. You're not going to find a

good number. I didn't have a good number of Baltimore's.
I love this team and I love the schedule to begin.

Speaker 2 (21:28):
I don't know Dodgers, got the Mets coming up, and
like we talked, Met's lineup starting to wake up a
little bit here.

Speaker 1 (21:35):
Eleven win teams, Podreys, Cubs, Pirates, Brewers. One of those
four teams, there are only two back of the Yankees,
they could pull this off.

Speaker 2 (21:44):
I mean, the Cubs might be the team that might
sneak into this thing. You get what four games coming
up with the Marlins, the Astros bullpen can't.

Speaker 1 (21:52):
Hold Reagan's Houston. That could be a Cub sweep.

Speaker 2 (21:54):
Yep, the bullpen can't do anything right. And then after
that you get the Red Sox before you take on
the Mets to end to end the month of two games.
That could be a sneaky one.

Speaker 1 (22:06):
Fun it's fun. Way to bet it, man, Yeah, it
really is. You got action every single day.

Speaker 2 (22:10):
Little instant gratification. Ye a bit right, it is, and
just month by month essentially.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
Up next NFL Draft talk, d Orlando Ledbetter is going
to join the program covers of Falcons for the Atlanta
Journal Constitution. Who's the pick overall at eight and is
he buying into the GM's comments about taking a quarterback.

Speaker 2 (22:46):
Welcome back.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
It is Follow the Money here on v SIN, the
sports betting network. Mitch Moss along with Jonathan von Tobele
in for Paul Howard today. NFL Draft is one week
from tonight and the Atlanta Falcons are picking number eight overall.
To talk about their pick and if they could add
a quarterback during the event next week. D Orlando Ledbetter,

who has covered the team for a long time, joins
the program now on the Progressive guest line. Good morning, sir,
Thanks for the time.

Speaker 3 (23:14):
How are you hey, I'm doing great, mitching JBG, thanks
for having me this morning.

Speaker 1 (23:19):
You bet you bet so? At number eight, and I've
been reading prop Let's be honest here the I'm probably
reading too many mock drafts on a daily basis, But
it appears pretty obvious at that at this point that
if the Falcons remain at number eight overall, the position
that they're going to take would be defensive line slash edge.

Does it seem that obvious to you or could something
kind of screw that up?

Speaker 3 (23:46):
Yeah? It does seem rather obvious at first take, but
then you start looking at Okay, it's just too obvious.
Some else is afoot here, and so then you gotta
look at, hey, how do they you lots of medical situation.
Could they have him ready to higher than Turner? Or
would Verse be the second guy? And then you're starting

to hear a little bit about Brian Murphy, the Texas
defensive tackle. You know, pressure players what the Falcons call them.
They don't really go by position. They're like, which player
can win their matchup and create more pressure? Now? Is
that Murphy that Lata that versus that Turner? So yeah,
we got a lot They got a lot of options there.

We got a lot of things to look at at
the eighth position now other than just what's on the surface.

Speaker 2 (24:35):
So one of the things that we've stuck on the
guys over a Pro Football Focus had pointed out that
Rahee Morris likes to drop his ed rushers into coverage
and that Dallas Turner among the prospects, has dropped back
in coverage the most. Has that come up in any
conversations like schematic fit the Turner fits best with Atlanta?

Speaker 3 (24:52):
Yes, that has come up, and that is a fact.
And you know they were over at their pro day
at Alabama. He didn't do much, but definitely he's a
scheme fit for the Falcons.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
Dallas Turner, all right, that makes a lot of sense. Obviously.
I've seen other people mocking maybe another offensive position, like
a wide receiver type to the Falcons at number eight.
That's not the consensus, not the majority, obviously, but they're
not gonna go I mean, think about this for a
second here again, back to back to back drafts with London,

Pits and Bjon. They wouldn't go offense, would they.

Speaker 3 (25:29):
I wouldn't think so unless some crazy like all drops
to them. If Odouze is the third receiver, you know,
he's pretty much Drake London. They're the big guys that
go up and get the ball and so far. So
you don't need two of those. But you know so
some really really strange would have to happen in front

of them for them to go offense. But I don't
see wide receiver. The other wild card spot for me
would be cornerback. Hey, do you you know do you
go with Arnold? Did he trade back and get Arnold?
Do he trade back and get McKinstry. You know, quinnyon
Mitchell from Toledo? You know, four three to three, So

you know, you got some options there that you know
could develop on draft day that may change your direction
here for the Atlanta Falcon.

Speaker 1 (26:20):
I'm glad you brought up the possibility of trading back
into the draft. It seems like that could be a
pretty decent play on their part as well. Has there
been much chatter that you've heard anyway about that would
they prefer to actually move back in the draft.

Speaker 2 (26:35):
They're looking for.

Speaker 3 (26:36):
Value wherever it is, back up and so forth. But
so far under Terry find those administration. You know, they
went up later, they haven't made the big blockbuster move.
They went up in the second to get bergeron you know,
that was by his biggest move, and they've moved around
the board in the middle in late rounds. But having

made the blockbuster deal that was always in play with
Thomas de Mittrof. You know, once he made that Julio
Jones trait, we were always on edge just see what
he was going to do to go up and get
the player they want. That was definitely one of his staples.
But find no kind of lucks to let the boy
come to him so far, and he's been in the

top spot in the prime position every year, so that
kind of.

Speaker 2 (27:22):
Makes sense, all right. So Mitch asked about offense. One
of the things that has been thrown out there. Adam
Schefter I was talking about these quarterbacks in the first
round and said, people aren't thinking of certain teams like
Atlanta for example. They need insurance past kirk Cousins. I
don't think they'd go quarterback first round, but where would
they start to target? Potentially a quarterback here maybe of
the future to put behind kirk Cousins. Is this a

real target for them in the later rounds?

Speaker 3 (27:46):
Yeah? No, guy, They only got two arms in the
in the on the roster right now, Kurt, and I
think he so, yeah, they're getting a quarterback. It's just
a matter of where. You know, eight's too high for Pinnick.
Do you trade back with Denver and those people and
take a bow? Nixt I don't think so. You got
too many issues to be worried about the quarterback of

the feature in the first round. But hey, in the
second and third, Hey, Spence Rattler could be there from
South Carolina, formerly one of the top prospects in the
country coming out of high school in Arizona. Ostar We're
keeping our eye on Michael Pratt, the two lane quarterback
who throws a nice deep ball, kind of shaky underneath,

but just kind of making the connection there. With him
in front and no being from Tulay, we know he's
been heavily scouted, So yeah, they could go quarterback, developmental
quarterback later. Don't expect to see that anytime before the third.

Speaker 1 (28:43):
Round, though, would that be a wise move in your opinion?
As follow the money here on VS and D Sports
Betting Network, our guest the Orlando Ledbetter, who's covered the
Falcons for a long time for the Atlanta General Constitution.
I mean, on paper, they are the best team in
their division, their odds on favorites in fact to win
the NFC South next year. I think they can win
right now, and they can make a run potentially here

in the playoffs. A quarterback and the third round to
me would be a little puzzling. How about you?

Speaker 3 (29:11):
I would yeah, normally it would make be a little
bit puzzle with but given the fact that they botched
the transition from Matt Ryan to this, you know, I
could understand that them wanting to have a transition plan
with a quarterback that's thirty five going into the season
at thirty six, you know, do you do it this year?
Do you do it next year? At some point you
can't get caught flat foot like they did when Matt

Ryan at thirty seven was you know, they decided to
go chase de Sean Watson. You lost that and then
you follow yourself playing with Marcus Mariota and Desert Ritter.
So you want to go ahead and start working on
that project, that little homework project as soon as possible
and maybe get a year or two with the Air
Apparent Underkirk Cousins. But you might be you know, you know,

it might not be this year, but it may be next.
But you gotta do it at some point. You gotta
have a transition plan. Don't want to get caught flat
footed like Denver where they're still looking for the quarterback.

Speaker 1 (30:08):
Sure, but you would agree with that correct And when
you look at the numbers overall, they are the despite
the Buccaneers winning a playoff game last year bringing back
both Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans. Crucial job by them
to get both those players signed for next year and beyond,
But that to me doesn't matter. Like the Falcons are
the best team in this division as we speak. Don't

you agree with that?

Speaker 3 (30:32):
Yes, I agree with Vegas. I never never go to
get Vegas, folks. If that's how they got it, I'm
with him, I'm rolling with them. But yeah, I still
need to see some stuff coming together. The quarterbacks gotta
be healthy, uh, you know, and all those things that
are given. But certainly they have overtaken the Bucks. But
the Bucks have won of division three years in a row,

but you know, two of those with Tom Brady, so gay,
we've got factor that in there as one of the variables. Yeah,
no doubt. They're the odds on favorite here as we
stand here in April, right before the draft.

Speaker 1 (31:09):
Well, it's going to be a surprise to basically nobody.
I think if Kirk Cousins goes there, if he plays
the entire season d and based on his history playing
in a dome with their weapons, if he plays sixteen games,
I think Cousins is going to put up forty five
hundred yards and thirty touchdowns.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
Kyle Pitts might actually have a thousand yards exactly right, Yeah,
no doubt about it.

Speaker 3 (31:31):
Yea, Kyle Pitts should be in play for sure. They're
definitely counting on him to have a big year.

Speaker 1 (31:36):
You can follow d on X. He's at d Orlando. A. J.
Seed is a great job covering the Falcons for the
Atlanta Journal Constitution. Do you thinks so much for the
time today. We appreciate that.

Speaker 3 (31:47):
All right, thanks for having me Mitching JVT. You all
take care and have a great day.

Speaker 1 (31:51):
You bet you two? Okay, So yeah, he joined us
here in the Progressive guest line. If Cousins plays sixteen
seventeen games, I fully expect the numbers to be there
at the end of the season.

Speaker 2 (32:01):
Oh yeah, no, they should. I agree with you. I
think that they are obviously the best team in the
NFC South right now. And again I pointed this out
when we talked about this on primetime that whin the
trade happened, which is just from a future standpoint, Mitch,
I think they're worth it. You're going to get a
schedule that is manageable for them. You're a team that
could is going to be the favorite to win your
division or is the favorite to win your division. You
should have a home game in the postseason, like if

those things kind of matter when you're talking about potentially
making a run By the way, can I also say
I do like that if they get Michael Pratt kids
only twenty two years old, Like, that's what you're kind
of trying to do, right, if you're going to get
a guy to sit around for a year or two.

Speaker 1 (32:34):
Where would you like it at all?

Speaker 3 (32:36):
Like third?

Speaker 1 (32:37):
At the highest they can go quarterback this year's third run.

Speaker 2 (32:40):
Yes, your team with aspirations like you can't. As we
pointed out yesterday, Green Bay did it in the first
round as you well know, two times with Aaron Rodgers
Jordan Love. Both times, especially with Love, they were criticized.
But the bigger point is both of them were twenty
one years old when they were drafted, right, that makes
a little bit more sense as opposed to Bonux and Panix.

Right now, we're going to be twenty four when the
season starts.

Speaker 1 (33:03):
Yeah, and when would they play with Kirk Cousins going
there right by the time they're twenty six, twenty seven?

Speaker 2 (33:08):
Yeah, that's not correct.

Speaker 1 (33:09):
Up next, we will dive into NBA Finals exacta markets
coming up. I will ask JBT which number looks appealing,
especially to those who are currently without futures. Here on
follow the money, it's Vista the Sports Betty Network.

Speaker 2 (33:41):
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and DraftKings Sportsbook at official sports betting partner of the NBA.
From the playing tournament with the finals, Draftking Sportsbook as
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The Crown is yours.

Speaker 1 (34:04):
Mike palm VP circa resort of casino coming up in
studio in fifteen minutes. So excited, get into the ajunteporter
story at that point the book where we broadcast from
every single day circa they posted NBA Championship exactas the
other day. They're down right now. I think we're waiting
news on like Jimmy Butler, for example, and what's going

to happen with his health overall. But for those who
have already dabbled in this market, or for those who
are looking to add something to their future portfolio, did
anything jump out to you, like is it too chalky
to go Celtics Nuggets this year in the NBA.

Speaker 2 (34:44):
I mean, it's it's hard not to tie Boston into anything,
right because it's if again, it very much seems that
the Celtics should be able to make it through the
Eastern Conference. On the inter fact, thoughts on favorites to
do so, like this should be something that if you're
attacking it, you're tying in a lot of Boston to
whatever it's going to be. Now, as far as the
West is concerned, I really like Denver a lot. I

think that obviously, just like the odds would say, the
most probable outcome is Denver makes it out of the
Western Conference. But I like when you look at the
way that this could go down, if everybody is right,
and especially if Kawhi Leonard is not going to play
a path to at the very least the Western Conference finals,
seems very likely for a team like the Dallas Mavericks,
think they can match up pretty well with the Oklahoma

City Thunder, potentially win that series, make it there, and
then anything you know, have no holds barred in any
Western Conference finals. So like a Boston over Dallas or
a Dallas over Boston potentially tying those in at those
prices is something that's pretty interesting. You're talking about the
range of twenty to one Dallas fitting Boston to twenty
two to one nineteen seventy five the other way. I
think that's probably the way you're going. Or again, say

a similar line of thought, which is, if you believe
that the Western Conference finalist on the other end is
going to be the winner of this Mavericks and Clipper
series and Kawhi Leonder plays tying in a longer shot
on the Clippers in that regard, could be something worth
looking at to.

Speaker 1 (36:03):
You're doing a lot of what mainstream media has done
this week. What you are poopooing the one seed in
the West.

Speaker 2 (36:09):
Oh, the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Speaker 1 (36:10):
Oh yeah, that's correct.

Speaker 2 (36:12):
I am you're right now. I will say this, I
do think that Oklahoma City's I don't think it's poo pooing.
I think that there are clear shortcomings for the roster
that tend to manifest in the postseason. When you don't
have like size, when you lack the ability to really
attack teams up front of the glass, when you're not
really strong in your front court in terms of your physicality,

that does tend to manifest in losses more often than
not in the postseason, if that's fair.

Speaker 1 (36:40):
As someone who was holding Oka see futures, Yeah, you're
like you No.

Speaker 2 (36:45):

Speaker 1 (36:46):
The part that disappointed me the most this year was
at the deadline, speaking to your point, when they did
not go out and help chet Holmgren down low. They
added Gordon Hayward right, which signed seven years ago. Great, sure,
but today no, thank you, including the fact that they
passed on somebody big down low who can actually spell

home grin and then be kind of effective, right, And
so that is a major concern of mine.

Speaker 2 (37:12):
Yeah, and I don't want to say too like. That's
why I kind of prefaced it as if you are
one that believes that the Western You're right, the Western
Conference other semi finalists or spinal list is coming out
of that side of the bracket, right, like, because I
agree with you in that.

Speaker 3 (37:23):

Speaker 2 (37:24):
Oklahoma City is awesome, Shake Kills Alexander is one of
the best individual players you're gonna have at the Western Conference.
Mark Dagnold is arguably one of the best head coaches
in the conference or maybe in the NBA. I still
think Michael Malone is probably the best coach in the
NBA at this point right now, he's been absolutely incredible.
But yeah, I don't want to discount Oklahoma City in
any way, shape or form given their individual players, but
the fact that you lack that size and we shouldn't

look shake kills. Alexander didn't look incredible coming back from
that quad injury, right, So that's something you have to
consider too as you kind of come into this. I
do think he's going to be fully healthy. But I
think that is kind of why a lot of people.
If you're saying Oklahoma City can't do it because the team,
like it was just regular season team, you're wrong. I
think if you're drawing the conclusion because they lack true
size up front and thus against some of these teams

might be up against it, I think that's more of
a fair criticism.

Speaker 1 (38:10):
All right, So the path going through Denver right like
the next if they if they do beat the Lakers
and they're a minus three ten favor to do so
at DraftKings as we're trying to like fill out the bracket,
then I think the winner of Suns Wolves can no
doubt give the Nuggets a run for their money. I
know the Wolves can. I'm absolutely convinced that they can

play them to a seven game series, and maybe wine
is that wishful thinking on my part with Phoenix because
I don't like this Suns team in general, but I
cannot ignore how they played Denver in the regular season.

Speaker 2 (38:40):
So that for me, that's the other one, and it's
not Phoenix, it's actually it's Minnesota because I agree, like
I like we've kind of talked about this a little bit.
I don't trust Phoenix either, Like I think that there's
there's been this team. The signs of this team is
of somewh oft fraudulent. We could look at the atask record.
The market's been a little too high on them. The
market has been waiting for any opportunity to bet them.
Here we are again. So and you mentioned the way

that Minnesota played Denver and the right like the way
they could play match up with Denver, especially Karl Anthony
Town's back if you make it out of this series.
You know, you talk to people out in Denver and like,
there's there's the one team that would worry you if
you get them, would be the team that's on their
side of the bracket of the CA face in the
Western Conference. Semis which is Minnesota. You know, it's funny
we you know, the narrative coming out of last postseason

the most competitive sweep in basketball history, I mean, the
most competitive gentleman sweep of basketball history. Minnesota like made
them grind in that first round quite a bit and
even stole a game.

Speaker 1 (39:31):
You know, Denver players actually talked about that after they
won the title. They reflected on that run and they
were asked which team gave them the most. They said, Minnesota. Yeah,
and Minnesota plays them tight all the time, and that's
a me That team presents plenty of matchup problems for
the Nuggets.

Speaker 2 (39:47):
And they are better this year. You could get it.
You could have with hell question like Nasried obviously looks
like he could win six Man of the Year. You
added Monty Morris to your bench. This is a team
that has been Anthony Edwards has obviously taken another step
forward in his development too. No, I think that that's
one where you might be sleeping on that. So tying
that in right, like Boston defeating Minnesota or Minnesota defeating Boston,
like those kind of exactness too might be worth looking

at because I do think Minnesota defensively presents challenges and
think about that too, Like, if you're right right, let's
say that Oklahoma City wins their first round series agains
whoever comes out, I think they will say they win
that semi final matchup against out of the Clippers of
the Mavericks, and then you get a matchup of the
Western Conference finals with this massive Minnesota team that can
exploit exactly what we're talking about here, right, no true

answer upfront for taking that team on a path out
of the West is not unplausible at all from Minnesota.

Speaker 1 (40:37):
Okay, So the way I would not bet both them,
by the way, yeah, like you're throwing out there if
you wanted to bet Boston over Dallas and Dallas over Boston.
What I would do is for people who are looking
to maybe make a profit, and I agree with you.
I think you need the key in the Celtics and
if you lose, you lose, because a it's beyond an
upset if they don't come out of the Eastern Conference.

Can they lose, Sure they can have all the time.
But they I think are clearly head and shoulders above
the field this year in the Eastern Conference. Because if
you want to if that, if you that happens. Right,
if you bet one of those, and you bet Boston
over Dallas, you're going to be able to hedge off that,
right if you want to in the playoffs anyway, where

you could take Dallas plus a game and a half,
or you could take Dallas a little bit to win
the series, because any of going to any of these
teams are going to be dogs against the Celtics in
the finals.

Speaker 4 (41:29):

Speaker 2 (41:29):
Now that's a really good point. Like the side that
you're backing there at Boston defeat, you're going to have
the favorite side off the may of the playoff, even
if it's the Nuggets, regardless of injury, if they make
it out.

Speaker 1 (41:38):
Like I want to sit here and tell you that, No,
let's look beyond the board here in the.

Speaker 2 (41:41):
End, it's Lakers over Knicks. Huh, that's a let's.

Speaker 1 (41:45):
Let's tie in the Knicks, let's tie in the Sixers,
Let's tie. But I can't do that. I just do
you think Cleveland or Orlando would give any resistance to
Boston the second round.

Speaker 2 (41:55):
I mean they'll play them for the course of forty
eight minutes per game, that's right, They'll try to stop them.

Speaker 1 (42:02):
Orlando has actually played them quite well.

Speaker 2 (42:04):
They did last year. They were wing three and one
straight up four to zero against the spread against them
last year. Yeah, that kind of wore out a little
bit this year, and it's a little different now now
that you have forzingis two and man the way that
that math battle you talk about like a math battle.
If Orlando does win and move on the discrepancy from
beyond the three point line in that series between those two,
it is gonna be huge. Yeah, Boston's just gonna walk
into each game up like thirteen just because they just

make more threes on average.

Speaker 4 (42:27):

Speaker 1 (42:28):
I don't give the Bucks a chance. I don't I
the Pacers in a seven game series that might be
fun against the Celtics, but I think the Celtics blow
by them offensively. I think maybe the two to seven matchup,
that's one of those two teams basically the only two
I think that can give the Celtics any run at all.

Speaker 2 (42:47):
Sure, yes, I would agree with that in general, but
I think that's what you were looking at. I mean, look,
we should we should, we shouldn't ignore. I mean, there's
a reality that Milwaukee still wins this series against Indiana
and then all of a sudden you're in the second round,
Giannis's back, he's held healthy, and you've got a guy
who's won an NBA Finals before and another dude that's
the best of his generation to Damian Lillard, and all
of a sudden, you know, make a noise there and

you have to face him at the East Like, that's
not implausible. We should mention Milwaukee. The injury just of
course still rails things.

Speaker 1 (43:14):
I would not like their chances against the Celtics.

Speaker 2 (43:16):
No, I think it's fair.

Speaker 1 (43:18):
But what you just said though, now that it's a
pick him against the Pacers, which is just I mean crazy, but.

Speaker 2 (43:23):
It seems a little nuts to me. Yeah, like I
talked to yesterday, I was talking with a couple of people,
and I feel like if that plus sign appears, might
be go time on Milwaukee again.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Who's to say that Dame for a couple of games
here potentially without Giannis doesn't go off in average thirty
five a.

Speaker 2 (43:38):
Game against against a very bad perimeter defense.

Speaker 1 (43:41):
Exactly right, he could torch them and look absolutely brilliant.

Speaker 2 (43:44):
And remember too, the other change in that series, bened
mc matherin's out for the season. Yeah, it's a pretty
big deal.

Speaker 1 (43:49):
Up next Mike Palm on the program VP Resort of Casino.
What are his thoughts on the jhont Porter story and
the eighty thousand dollars bet that was frozen as a
result of him trying to fix games he was playing in.
That's next year and follow the Moneys vs. In the
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