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April 19, 2024 44 mins

In hour three of Follow the Money, Tim Murray and JVT give their final thoughts on the NBA play in games, the NHL playoffs, and reveal their in pocket plays.

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Always to follow the money.

Speaker 2 (00:02):
That's what I always say, you always follow.

Speaker 3 (00:04):
Yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Polly Howard on vson Our three on this Friday Money
Morning of Follow the Money alongside Jonathan von Tobel. I'm
Tim Murray in for the fellas, I'm in for Mitch Moss.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Jvt's been in for Pauli Howard all week long.

Speaker 3 (00:23):
Paulie back on Monday, Mitch back on Tuesday, and we
will have the NFL Draft just around the corner on Thursday.
Me and JBT love betting this event. It's one that
moves very rapidly, as we saw with the number two
overall pick mark.

Speaker 2 (00:38):
What's on here? Are you smiling?

Speaker 1 (00:39):
I'm just excited, excited for our next guest. All right.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
JP Finley, who covers the Washington Commanders for NBC four
and also hosts a show on one O six seven
the Fan in my hometown of Washington, DC, joins us
right now.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
Jp. I was texting with you last night.

Speaker 3 (00:54):
We heard from Adam Peters did the obligatory press conference.
Didn't really reveal all that much, but we saw a
massive shift in the betting market, and I'm curious your
thoughts on it, because my assumption is just we're moving
back to normalcy because we had no legitimacy saying that
Jaden Daniels was going to be the guy.

Speaker 4 (01:18):
It's interesting because I think folks around the league believe
Daniels is going to be the guy, but I think
nobody in Washington has hinted at all who it's going
to be. And you know, Adam Peter spoke yesterday to
your point and really said nothing. I'd also say, you know,

(01:41):
they've had they had this kind of wacky or at
least different process earlier this week where they invited about
twenty prospects in to their practice facility, including four quarterbacks,
all at the same time. They had Pennix, McCarthy, May
and Daniels all here at once. They went to Top

(02:03):
Golf on I guess it would be Tuesday night, and
then they all had individual meetings on Wednesday, And certainly
that's a different process, and Peters talked about how he
really enjoyed seeing all the guys in a relaxed atmosphere
and kind of how they interact him with one another.
But after that process, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk

(02:27):
had he just said that he expressed that he thought
it was kind of low rent. I would say, like,
he just didn't think it made any sense to do
that with quarterbacks when you can spend individual time with them.
And Jadeen daniels agent quote tweeted the Florio video with
like the the thinking emoji, and it's pretty clear that

(02:52):
the agent was mad about it or didn't like the process.
In the time since, Pelli Sero reported that Daniels is
meeting with Minnesota with the Vikings. So you've got this
bit of intrigue to add to the draft process, which

(03:12):
is just drags on forever and ever and ever, and
maybe they really are back to square one where it's
may or Daniels and who knows who it will be.

Speaker 1 (03:21):
So we've heard that there were what were the term
signs in signals this whole time that it was Jadon Daniels,
that they're leaning toward that direction. Can you tell us
what those signs and signals are, Like, how do we
get to the point where we thought this was going
to be Daniels? What were the signs that were there?

Speaker 4 (03:37):
Well, to start, Daniels had a monster season, right like
I think ultimately we had to circle back to football
with this, and I think Daniels was awesome last year
and that's kind of what started it all. And then
you know, various times dan Quinn has talked about wanting

(03:58):
a game changing quarterback, and yesterday something that was kind
of interesting. I have Adam Peters how you balance drafting
a guy that could be really good in a couple
of years versus somebody that could, you know, play right away,
and he said, you know, in the first round, we're
not really looking for somebody that needs a couple of
years to develop. I don't know that's the case with

(04:18):
Drake May, but people will tell you kind of his
footwork and the inaccuracy close to the line of scrimmage
is something they'd like to see him work on. And
Daniels seems a little more pro ready, but you know,
the side and signals like that kind of stuff would

(04:38):
probably be national level. Like Schefter has kind of hinted
that that he has heard from from people around the
league that he thinks it will be Jaden to Washington.
But I mean, there's never been like a firm it's
Daniels report.

Speaker 3 (04:56):
Ever, JP Finley joining us on our progressive guest line.
You can see him on NBC four in Washington, DC.
Can also hear him on one oh six to seven
The Fan with former Washington Redskin Brian Mitchell. We just
had Jay Gruden on former Commander head coach or former
Washington head coach, I should say last hour, and I
was joking with him. I don't know if I said
it on air off air, but we all know. In

(05:18):
twenty nineteen, the ownership group walked in and said, hey,
you're taking Dwayne Haskins at fifteen. So we have a
new ownership group in Washington, a new front office, a
new head coach. Have you got any indication of how
this could potentially play out.

Speaker 2 (05:33):
I'm not naive enough to think that Josh Harris.

Speaker 3 (05:35):
The new owner of Washington, is going to completely stay
out of it, JP, But what's your feel. Adam Peters
is a new GM, dan Quinn's a new head coach.
They bring in Cliff Kingsbury. What's the process from what
you understand, going to be like when they come to
this decision on number two?

Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, so Peter's yesterday said that they're really close towards
making that decision. But this has been involved. He was
involved at the combine he was at the top Golf
and subsequent meetings. Now he Josh Harris explained the combine.
He's like, yeah, this was my first time doing it.
I just wanted to observe and see the process it's been.

(06:17):
Peters was asked about Harris being involved yesterday. He's like,
he's been extremely supportive. He's given us every tool we
need and allow us to do what we need to do.
I think there is like perhaps a healthy level of
involvement where he's there and able to chime in or
are I think the smartest way for I mean, having

(06:41):
watched closely this Washington organization for twenty years and professionally
for a decade, I think there's a healthy way for
a good general manager to kind of manage up with
the owner versus the completely toxic and unhealthy way that
Dan Snyder kind of managed down. I think with the
number two pick and a franchise quarterback, every GM in

(07:04):
football is going to, you know, kind of go to
the owner before the pick gets made and say, hey,
this is what we're doing and make sure everybody's kind
of on board. But I don't get the sense at
all that Harris is demanding, you know, I mean you
go back to the Dan Hassmans thing and the rumors
that like Dan's son knew Haskins from high school and
that was a big factor. Like I had somebody from

(07:28):
the football world say to me, you know, if Dan
was still running things, do you think he would trade
everything to go get Caleb Williams because Caleb Williams is
the DC guy. And part of me is like, yeah,
I think he would. Frankly, and that's not the case
at all anymore. So I just think they are is
the owner involved, yes, it is his involvement in a professional,

(07:52):
healthy manner, I would say yes.

Speaker 1 (07:54):
Also, so we also know that you know, we're obviously
obsessing over this because it's the second pick and it
could shape the draft as we know, whoever they decide
to take. Washington also has the thirty sixth pick here JP,
What do you think they do there in terms of
targeting a position in their second round selection?

Speaker 4 (08:10):
Tackle? They desperately need a left tackle, probably like a
left tackle of the future. They have thirty six and
forty and it would shock nobody if they try to
move up Like so, they have five I'm sorry they
have six picks now in the top one hundred if
they tried to get to twenty five or something and

(08:33):
get a tackle there. Especially you know, you get in
that first round, you get that fifth year rookie option
for a position where if you hit on it is
really expensive once you get into a second contract. I
would not be stunned whatsoever if they try to get
aggressive at tackle. There's a big guy out of Arizona
they've kind of been connected with. I really like, there's

(08:55):
a guy that doesn't have a lot of experiences, Kid
Mims out of Georgia, but he's just a physical beast
and I think he can grow into that position. For
you, you really got something. So I think it's I mean,
they were bad last year. They had no Pro bowlers
last year. They got holes all over the roster, and

(09:16):
they were really active in free agency to try to
fill a lot of those holes. But if you think
about it, it's not they didn't give out a lot
of long term deals. It's a lot of one year
deals or deals and only have guaranteed money on one year.
They got a bunch of band aids to make them
competitive this season. So there's hardly a position where I

(09:36):
would look at on this team. But that they don't
need Frankly, so could they go edge rusher there? Sure?
Could they go corner there?

Speaker 5 (09:44):
Sure?

Speaker 4 (09:45):
Some of it will depend on how the draft board falls,
but I think there's concern at the tackle position that
there's it's kind of a top heavy group. If you
listen to the scouts, where you know, if you get
somebody in that first round or by thirty six or forty,
you've got a real prospect. But after that it kind

(10:06):
of falls off.

Speaker 3 (10:07):
JP Finley joining us here from from NBC and one
O six seven the fan in Washington, DC. All right, Jp,
I'll let you run on this. Let's just circle back
at two on Thursday night in Detroit the card gets
handed in. I'm not telling you report anything, just your
gut feel right now from what you've heard from around
the league. Is it Jaden Daniels, Is it Drake May?

(10:28):
Is it anybody else? What's your feel right now?

Speaker 4 (10:30):
Don't I don't know, dude, I truly don't know. My
gut feel is Daniels, but I do not know it
could be May, for sure. It's wild watching these odds
go crazy. But I'm trying to remind myself that this
time last year, the odds went crazy around CJ. Stroud.

Speaker 2 (10:52):
Yes, I did, Will Levis CJ.

Speaker 3 (10:53):
Stroud, And I think your answer is why the odds
have moved back. Nobody knows, and you cover the team,
so you would be telling us if it was Jayden Daniels. Hey, JP,
appreciate it, brother, Talk to you soon, man.

Speaker 4 (11:05):
Thanks, guys, take care there.

Speaker 2 (11:06):
He is JP Finley on a progressive guest line. And
I know, I know we've been talking about it a lot.

Speaker 3 (11:12):
The odds have been moving like crazy, but I just
I think that's where we're at.

Speaker 1 (11:17):
I think actually the big takeaway is the offensive line bit.
With nine and a half for the first round offensive
lineman not shaded too high, but Washington is a candidate.
Get back to that first round rapp one of these
guys and talking.

Speaker 3 (11:27):
Too high end second round picks. You look at the
tackle market also, I'll mention this Olo Fushanu from DC.
If he slides a little bit, could Washington look up
to get the tackle out.

Speaker 2 (11:39):
Of Penn State.

Speaker 3 (11:40):
We will see NBA playoffs start on Saturday. Play in
tournament wraps up tonight.

Speaker 1 (11:57):
You know we were just talking about the run in
tennis up into the French Open. Is that what they
say a clay season. Well, you can get some tennis
best bets for Friday, April nineteenth up on this sid
of bsin dot com. Part of everything that's up on
the website, absolutely tremendous amount of content and of course
rolling out more and more NFL draft content. Matt Humans
has his first and only mock draft of the season,

(12:20):
so you can check that out and more right now
at vsin dot com.

Speaker 3 (12:24):
I remember last year I did a mock draft I'm
gonna do I'm gonna do a one this year, and
then I updated it and you gotta update it, like yeah,
nor news coming out, so he should update it.

Speaker 1 (12:35):
Humans updated well. Matt is resting on the laurels up.
I want to say it was three years ago that
he finished. What's the site that aggregates all of them
great report. I think he finished top five if I remember correctly.
When you're for a huddle report draft pretty solid. So
resting on those laurels.

Speaker 2 (12:54):
MAT's not the way you know, you know who had
the best mock draft in all the land last year?

Speaker 1 (12:59):
It was like some ten year olds Sean Green from.

Speaker 3 (13:01):
Sports Camera Hu Yes, yeah, SGP Fellaws. So we'll see
I gotta pipe into Sean see what he's thinking. But yeah,
I gotta get working online safe to say that you're
going to be You've already bet it offensive lineman over
nine and a half, right.

Speaker 1 (13:15):
Yeah, over nine and a half. The price I guy
was minus one forty. I think we're still floating around
that range. I have a check for a couple of days.
I'll double check right now, but yes, that was one
of the early ones that I had bet. If you
look at it for the offensive line, obviously it's a
pretty deep class. It is a position of value and
just kind of reading the tee leaves talking to people,
if there was a position you were going to kind
of let go to the wayside in order to jump

(13:36):
on some of the premier guys you're going to get
along the offensive line. Could be wide receiver that you
kind of let go, could be corner. But it does
seem that there is kind of an emphasis on what
this could be in JP bringing that up, Jp Finley,
it's a really good point, which is, you know, if
you hit on an offensive tackle, these guys do tend
to be expensive. So we always talk about these fifth
year options for guys, and in terms of the quarterback position.

(13:57):
You get fifth year options for everybody, and so if
you he had a fifth year option on a stud
offensive tackle, if you hit it right, that could be
a really big tool. So I do think that you're
probably going to see this happen with these offensive line
the going pretty quick. I haven't found in mock draft
that is anything less than ten going in the first round,
so I thought nine and a half of that that
price was worth it.

Speaker 3 (14:15):
Yeah, and you've shared a couple reports like Graham Barton,
the kid out of Duke, versatility, play center, could play tackle.
He's been linked to the Steelers at twenty. I think
it was Daniel Jeremiah who said earlier this week that
he is he is someone he would buy stock in
right now. So that was a bet that I put
in under twenty one and a half for Graham Barton.
You could have got a better number at twenty three

(14:35):
and a half. I think go open here at circa and.

Speaker 1 (14:37):
It does lead to too. I think the other popular one,
the one we've seen move a little bit total offensive
players in the first round twenty one and a half. Now, yes,
it's gone for twenty and a half to now twenty
one and a half shade it to the under at
minus one seventy five. By the way, offensive lineman still
nine and a half, but over minus two hundred. These
are just numbers of DraftKings, so shop around and find
those out. But it does seem that we could get
a record number of offensive players selected in the first round,

(14:58):
at least the market definitely thinking and does make sense
right four and a half, five quarterbacks, the general thought
process there ten to eleven offensive lineman, six wide receivers.
Like you're talking about quite a few offensive pieces going
here in the first round.

Speaker 3 (15:11):
It looks like, yeah, we don't know when that first
defensive player is going to come. Most mocks have quarterbacks one, two, three,
then Marvin Harrison at four. Is it a trade up
for another quarterback? Lak Nabors is finding his way into
the top six or seven? Roma Doonze Joe Alt. Is
it going to be Dallas Turner at eight? If it's
not Dallas Turner at eight, who could be that first

(15:32):
defensive player? We could see a lot of offensive players
off the board rather quickly. Does Brock Boers go in
the top ten. That's been a discussion this week as well,
So we'll wrap up the show obviously with What's in pocket,
and we'll give kind of final thoughts on the NFL
Draft as we head into the weekend. But of course
we do have the play in tournament wrapping up this evening.

(15:53):
Two games New Orleans is the late late night game,
New Orleans hosting Sacramento. Market right now sits at New
Orleans catching one and a half or one. Circa was
sitting at Pick yesterday but that got banged up to
Sacramento minus one. And in the early game is Miami
in Chicago. Miami right now laying we'll say one and
a half at DraftKings, two and a half here at Circus.

(16:15):
Some Miami money has hit the market. No Jimmy Butler
from Miami. As we know, Alex Caruso very up in
the air status. Adrian Wojinarowski said, they were, I guess
cautiously optimistic that he could potentially play look better than
what we had initially been told. And then obviously know
zion for New Orleans. So two games tonight, JVT, how

(16:37):
do you look at these two games from a side
and total perspective and anything you're looking to put in
your pocket?

Speaker 1 (16:42):
Yeah, sacrament in New Orleans is kind of interesting too,
because I'll say this, I don't think we're probably gonna
get much movement there anymore. Right, it seems fair to
say for Sacramento New Orleans, the injuries are known, we
know the personnel that's going to be available, market shaped itself,
and now it just kind of floats out there, maybe
half point moving in one direction or the I think
what's going to be really fun to watch is going

(17:03):
to be where this game is played from a pay standpoint,
us scoring. The total, as you mentioned, really really no low.
Now after the injuries in the market settled in down
to two ten and a half, and on the surface,
you would think between these two teams, like go, it's
extremely low. Right, Like these two teams generally you would
think of his over teams, but that hasn't really been
the case. For Sacramento. They've been one of the best

(17:23):
unders teams since March tenth. They have played very very
strongly to the under, and in fact, for the season,
I think they got a pretty big decent edge to
the under. And they double check here in the notes. Yeah,
forty four and thirty seven and two to the under
so far for Sacramento and a lot of that damage
has come in the last few weeks, and in fact,
six and one to the under in their last seven
sample size grows out past there. So I'm really curious

(17:45):
to see where this is played, because Sacramento does tend
to get a little hot pretty quickly. Right you hit
a couple of three point shots, you drive these totals up,
and then maybe you can get in game on this under.
But I don't think you're gonna move much here, Tim,
So I think you can probably just pick your side
and right stake your claim when it comes to Sacramento
in New Orleans.

Speaker 3 (18:00):
Yeah, and you know we mentioned the betting splits are
showing you the graphic right now. By the way Vson
dot com slash splitch, you can get it for free
for two weeks. Not pretty good time to get it
for free with the NBA playoffs NHL Playoffs getting rolling here.
But right now at DraftKings, overwhelming support for Sacramento eighty
three percent of the bets, eighty five percent of the

(18:20):
handle on the Kings. My initial gut and I texted
you last night and I said, am I crazy for
kind of liking the Pelicans? I think your response was
without Zion kind of ye, I would be Pelicans are
pass here because I do anticipate a much better performance
from CJ. McCollum the wildcard. And why I haven't gotten
to the window yet is brandon Ingram right. I mean,

(18:41):
it was his first game in three weeks. He looked terrible,
he got benched. You know, I know they were, you know,
talking positively about he came into the gym the next
day and was ready to go. And also you look
at Sacramento and the performance that they just had JVT
on Tuesday night. I thought they were, you know, they
shot out of their minds in that performance. You saw

(19:02):
what Keegan Murrigo eight of thirteen from three. So I
think there's a little bit of you know, negative regression
coming for this King's team, and I think a little
positive regression for the Pelicans. That said, the reason I
haven't gotten to the window yet is well, Zion Williams
said was playing the best game of his career and
he's not going to play tonight, So that certainly would

(19:22):
be a bit of an issue.

Speaker 1 (19:24):
By the way, I went back and looked really quickly
sixteen and four to the under for the Kings in
their last twenty games, so something of something to monitors.

Speaker 4 (19:31):
To get into this.

Speaker 3 (19:32):
But as you look at this, right, we've seen up
until the Bulls Heat game which flew over the total
sit boll Hawk's a bigger pardon, and then heat and sixers,
which yeah, flew over with a last second three from
Tyler Hero.

Speaker 1 (19:46):
Don't forget the foul. Don't forget the off ball foul
the game with tech fre you throw that. I allowed
that to happen.

Speaker 3 (19:51):
So up until that point, Unders were twelve and two
in the playing tournament. Now they're twelve and four. You
get that kind of game seven field that I know
will be regurgitated a lot all week. But man, you've
seen a movement of what eight points off of the
open twenty nine actually nine points I think it was
two nineteen and a half. Yeah, so you get no zion,
but I would say I would look a little under

(20:13):
two ten and a half more if anything, right, I mean, I.

Speaker 1 (20:16):
Think potentially, I think so much. It's so it's so
low that, like I said, like you, they open this game,
they both hit threes, You're gonna be able to get
under it. You know, a better number in this matchup
two and as I mentioned as well, Sacramento does have
a tendency to get kind of hot pretty early. They
did it against Golden State, you know, and before that
kind of died down we saw multiple times down the
stretch as well. So I think that's probably the angle

(20:37):
you're going for here. And look, I think the real
angle too is this kind of boring, right, because you
want some action going into it. It is a one
point spread. I mean you're going to be able to
find angles in game. Look at that. Look at all
of these games you could go back to for Okay,
Miami and Philadelphia. Miami goes down, goes up big in
the first half, Philadelphia comes storming back, eventually wins that game.
Plenty of the game opportunity there. Chicago and Atlanta. Chicago

(20:59):
actually got off a really hot start. Atlanta closed it
to a three point game in the third quarter. So
you know, there's definitely a lot of different opportunities there
to get inside of either numbers or or lay cheap numbers,
whatever it is. If you didn't get involved and you
thought Chicago pulled that back out, you can lay it
when they were only up by three whatever it was,
they end up winning by a wide margin. We can
go up and down the list. I mean, shoot, Golden State, Sacramento.
Golden State right before halftime, goes on a run, cuts

(21:21):
it to four. Looks like, hey, maybe they're gonna get
right back into this. But you came back in on
the other side and just lay it with the Sacramento Kings.
They go off and win by margin. I mean every
single game has an example of this.

Speaker 3 (21:31):
And of course Day was minus two in the second half.
It was a four point game and they lost by
you know, twenty yep.

Speaker 1 (21:36):
And of course the Pelicans and Lakers one of the
better examples where Lakers led by as much as I
think eighteen and then they needed Zion Williamson to get
hurt in the fourth quarter before that happened. So as
boring as it is, really for these games, I mean,
in game opportunities are abound. If you're just watching from
start to.

Speaker 3 (21:54):
Finish, Yeah, no, no doubt, I mean yeah, I mean
you think about the way the Heat and Sixers games started,
where it looked like the at you know, Sixers were
kind of dead and buried real quickly.

Speaker 2 (22:03):
We haven't hit on this series.

Speaker 3 (22:04):
Caves minus one ninety five, Magic plus one sixty five
the NBA TV series.

Speaker 2 (22:09):
Any thoughts on this one.

Speaker 1 (22:11):
Yeah, I mean I have thoughts. I don't know if
anybody really like it's on the bottom. Yeah, it's an
on NBA TV for a reason. Nothing that I can
succinctly put in fifteen seconds, So I'll just say that
I'll watch it. We got thirty minutes left. We can
get more on this on the other side, you know.

Speaker 3 (22:26):
But well, last Tom Habistrow if he has some in
depth thoughts on Magic Cavaliers. It's VSA in Follow the Money.

Speaker 1 (22:45):
Get access to the betting splits, folks. It is still
open for anybody who wants it. Yep, no pro subscription required.
Go Vson dot com slash splits. They have been opened
and ready for you to check out. Of course, get
all of the latest splits info from DraftKings for the
playing games, Major League Baseball Today and more. Check it
out now dot com slash Flitz.

Speaker 2 (23:01):
That's Jonathan von Tobol. I'm Tim Murray.

Speaker 3 (23:03):
We're in for the fellas on this Friday morning. We've
got the final night of the play in tournament and
the big boys get rolling tomorrow. Four games Tomorrow, four
games Sunday has to be JVT one of your favorite
weekends of the year.

Speaker 1 (23:18):
Oh yeah, very excited to watch it all the way
through four games each day. Just sit down, tell everybody
get out, let's go.

Speaker 3 (23:24):
And a man who knows a thing or two about
the NBA doing some analytical work for the Portland Trailblazers
writing for Yahoo Sports and also catch them on his substack,
Tom theefinder dot com. It is Tom Habstro who joins
us here on our progressive guest line. Tom, good morning.
We appreciate you jumping on. We'll start with Miami without
Jimmy Butler. The questions about Alex Caruso. The injuries are

(23:47):
piling up here, which is kind of unfortunate to see,
but you know.

Speaker 2 (23:50):
We've talked about it a lot.

Speaker 3 (23:52):
How do you expect Miami to perform tonight without Jimmy
Butler on the floor.

Speaker 5 (23:58):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (23:59):
I used to cover them Miami Heat six years in Miami,
and I got up close and personal with the team
and the organization, and this is just going to be
fueling them in this game against the Chicago Bulls. Now
you can look analytically and not just how they operate
as an organization. Pat Riley likes to say, you know,
we're going to burn the boats. Basically, once you go

(24:19):
into battle and you can't go back, now you're going
to burn the boats and go into battle, and that's
kind of the mentality they're going to go into this game,
and I expect that they will win in this game. Analytically,
they are thirteen and eight this season when bam Adebayo
plays and Jimmy Butler does not, so they do have
a good track record this year. When they're having to

(24:41):
play shorthanded without Jimmy Butler and that very unfortunate injury
they're spraining his mcl in the playing game against the
Philadelphia seventy six ers, was hobbled throughout, and I think
when you look at the Miami Heat, they are going
to be shorthanded. But they've done this before and Eric Spolster,
I think it's the best coach in the game, and

(25:02):
scheming wise, I suspect that the Chicago Bulls will struggle
to deal with bam Audebaio and that zone defense that
did throttle a lot of what Philadelphia wanted to do
in that game. And if you had had a healthy
Jimmy Butler against Philadelphia, I think they win that game handily.
So I expect the Miami heap to miss Jimmy Butler,
but much less than I think what people expect. Give

(25:26):
him that in those twenty one games where they did
not have Jimmy Butler this year, but bam Audebaio did play,
there were actually five games over five hundred.

Speaker 1 (25:34):
Yeah, in the market would agree with that. And we
went from minus one and a half to minus two
and a half now from Miami. So there are some
thought from betters as well that the heater are going
to pull this out. You kind of answered the question
I have for you. Are we going to see plenty
of this? As I called it in the first hour,
there's amorphous zone defense that had many different shapes against Philadelphia.
You think there's gonna be plenty of that tonight.

Speaker 6 (25:51):
Yeah, And remember Eric Spolster has a bunch of stuff
up his sleep.

Speaker 5 (25:54):
He always does.

Speaker 6 (25:56):
And he'll throw Duncan Robinson at the top of a one,
three to one and hide Tyler Hero defensively, and that's
kind of the.

Speaker 5 (26:05):
Kind of trick that he pulls up his sleeve.

Speaker 6 (26:07):
Is in today's NBA you want to target poor defenders,
and he by going zone with two guys, Duncan Robinson
and Tyler Hero. Oftentimes the offense can't get that targeting.
They can't headhunt for those defensive matchups, and that really
neutralizes a lot of what opposing teams want to do.
And the zone defense has been very effective and Jimmy

(26:30):
Butler or not in some ways. Without Jimmy Butler, I
suspect that they will go to that zone more because
Jimmy Butler is such a good on ball defender. Going
zone kind of gets back to what they do best
in that zone, throwing the opposing offense off. And I
suspect that Alex Caruso, as good as he is, hobbled

(26:50):
Alex Caruso is going to be tough because you're gonna
want to play that guy for forty minutes, but he's
in any way compromised. Alex Caruso at sixty percent is
not an average NBA player, so they're gonna want to
play him a lot.

Speaker 5 (27:07):
But we'll see.

Speaker 6 (27:08):
The Miami Heat will be testing him every minute of
this game.

Speaker 3 (27:11):
Tom Havistrow joining us here on Follow the Money. You
could follow him on Twitter at Tom Havistrow. He joins
us on our Progressive guest line. The nightcap is New
Orleans and Sacramento, and once again another injury to note.
Of course, Zion Williamson out and he was playing phenomenally
well against the Los Angeles Lakers. So brandon Ingram, his
second game back from injury, going up against a Sacramento

(27:32):
team has got their own injury problems to deal with.
But they looked fantastic against Golden State. What do you
expect to see late night? Right now? New Orleans a
slight home underdog around one one and a half to Sacramento.

Speaker 6 (27:44):
Didn't you guys find it interesting that Willie Green kept
brandon Ingram on the bench during that final few yeates.
I mean I was sitting there being like, wait, Zion's
out and you're still keeping Bi on the bench.

Speaker 5 (27:57):
And that told me one or two things.

Speaker 6 (28:00):
Either brandon Ingram they have a really load management mandate
to keep his minutes down so that he would be
fresh for this game, or that injury is more serious
than we believe, or that is publicly known. Because Brandon
Ingram is an All Star. He's a guy that could
have rescued them offensively down the stretch without Zion Williamson

(28:21):
and Willie Green not going to him tells me one
or two things to be true, and so that is
really alarming to me. I think if you're the Pelicans,
you really hope that they're saving brandon Ingram down the
stretch there so that he doesn't overdo it to over
extend himself and then they have another major injury that
can knock him out for this game. But I think
that might have been overprotective. So maybe we'll see brandon

(28:44):
Ingram carry them in this game. But it is certainly
alarming to me that they did not go to brandon
Ingram in that down the stretch in that game. They
certainly needed him, but CJ. McCollum might have to carry
this offense all the way. I think the Sacramento kings
them being shorthanded as well. Without Malik Monk and Kevin
They looked great against the Golden State Warriors, but to me,
I think brandon Ingram maybe they were resting him for

(29:06):
this game tonight, and I expect them to come out firing.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
Let's get to some of these series, and we're the
one that I think is the most intriguing. Tom is
Milwaukee in Indiana. We know what's going on with Giannis.
The market has reacted quite heavily here. They opened this
series price up as Milwaukee minus three fifty. The Pacers
are now favored in this series. Am I crazy to
kind of want to buy back a little bit here
on Milwaukee? They haven't seen each other since Adri mcgiff
got fired and Pascal Siakam was a Toronto Raptor. A

(29:32):
lot has changed here JVT.

Speaker 6 (29:34):
I kind of feel the same way is that seems
like an overreaction. But what I also noticed in this
series is that the Pacers play the exact brand of
basketball that usually crushes the Milwaukee Bucks. The Milwaukee Bucks
have an atrocious transition defense this season. They have not
gotten back on defense. It was true with Griffin, it

(29:57):
was true with Doc Rivers, and I suspect that they
are just going to try to run the Milwaukee Bucks
out of the gym. And what we know about NBA defense,
if you're not locked in, if you're having chemistry issues
or camaraderie or just locker room issues where not everyone's
on the same page, that's where it shows up is
in the transition defense, because that, more than anything, is

(30:18):
about everybody being on the same page and wanting go
the extra mile, and we know this about the Indiana Pacers.
They want to run you out of the gym. Tyrese
Haliburton has been kind of hampered with the hamstring injury
from earlier this year. The player participation policy prompted him
to try to get back earlier than I think what
he wanted to do. But we know even without Tyrese Haliburton,

(30:39):
it's not just a one man system. This isn't a
James Harden situation where he believes he is the system.
No matter who's on the floor, TJ. McConnell or Tyrese Haliburton,
they're going to try to run the Milwaukee Bucks out
of the gym. And with Brook Lopez at his age,
and they're so much better as a set defense. I
think the Indiana Pacers have kind of this Dave versus Goliath.

Speaker 5 (31:01):
The slingshot is that pace.

Speaker 6 (31:03):
Of play, So I hear you that I think it
is a little over the top how much it's swung
in the Indiana Pacers direction, But I do think that
they have the one thing that the Milwaukee Bucks hate
to space in this series is a team that wants
to run on every opportunity.

Speaker 1 (31:20):
And the other one I really want your opinion on.
We'll go back to last postseason. The market made Phoenix
a favorite over the Denver Nuggets in that Western Conference
semifinals and they ended up losing that series in six.
They are favored again and it's not slowing down over Minnesota.
Is the market getting this wrong again?

Speaker 6 (31:38):
I've been kind of bearish on the not the Philadelphia
seventy six, So is the Phoenix Suns in this entire season.
Is because I just feel like Bradley Beal, while he
has a star name, he does not have a star
impact and he has a very.

Speaker 5 (31:50):
Redundant skill set.

Speaker 6 (31:52):
With Devin Booker and Kevin duramt can Bradley Beal play
it be a two way star in the postseason.

Speaker 5 (31:59):
I don't see it.

Speaker 6 (32:00):
I just think that Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are
the two, by far the best players on this team,
and then the depth really falls off. They need two
way guys on this roster. I just don't see it.
Minnesota Timberwolves, I'm going to pick them in this series.
I think it's going to go long. But when you
look at the Minnesota Timberwolves with Karl Anthony townsback. They
have so many more weapons, and if KD or Devin
Booker don't have it, I just think this seeds.

Speaker 5 (32:22):
This series could be over quickly.

Speaker 1 (32:23):
Tom.

Speaker 3 (32:24):
Before we let you run, Tom, have a show joining
us on our progressive guest line. Lakers and Denver certainly
most high profile series we'll see if it's the most competitive,
Nuggets a pretty sizable favor understandably, so how much of
a shot do you give the Lakers here?

Speaker 6 (32:39):
How are the referees going to be calling this series?
Because that's the biggest thing on Yahoo Sports. We had
a video I put out called the Big Number where
the Lakers had a plus five hundred and seven free
throw differential this season, by far the most in the NBA,
and I think that is going to dictate this series.
How many whistles are the are the Los Angeles Lakers

(33:01):
gonna get? And Nikola jokicch if he gets in early
foul trouble, that's exactly what the Lakers want. And the
referees have so much power in this series, so watch
out how the officiating works out in this series.

Speaker 3 (33:12):
His substack Tom theefinder dot Com. He's doing work for
Yahoo Sports as well as analytics swore the Blazers.

Speaker 2 (33:18):
Tom Havistro, Tom appreciate it next time.

Speaker 5 (33:20):
Anytime as there is.

Speaker 3 (33:22):
Tom Havistrow will put a bow on. Follow the money,
and when we come back, what's in pockets?

Speaker 2 (33:43):
If the cornback was not, if his girlfriend was not.
These Kings are a burial, a blowout of you. In luck.

Speaker 1 (33:51):
You can bet your children's on board, children's children the
saks I was so good whenever I bet, I could
change the odds for.

Speaker 4 (33:59):
Everyth make it in a CURSI.

Speaker 3 (34:03):
All right, let's head into the weekend with some plays
in our pocket. I will do one NFL draft play,
a new NFL draft play. We have been building that
portfolio JBT for the past couple of weeks on vs.

Speaker 2 (34:15):
In primetime.

Speaker 1 (34:16):
Great numbers in there. I can't wait to lose them.

Speaker 2 (34:18):
All, absolutely looking forward to that. These numbers move very quickly.

Speaker 3 (34:22):
But this is the current price for Texas wide receiver
Aden I Mitchell, and we're gonna go horns down because
I believe it will.

Speaker 2 (34:31):
Be a long first round.

Speaker 3 (34:33):
I would not be surprised if at and I Mitchell
fell out of the first round. I think the price
here is important. DraftKings is offering twenty seven and a half.
CIRCA has twenty eight and a half. Why is that
important Because the Buffalo Bills are sitting there twenty eight,
a team that I believe is around minus two to
fifty to draft the wide receiver in the first round.
While I do think he could drop out of the
first round, twenty seven and a half is my comfort zone.

(34:56):
I'll play over twenty seven and a half for Adanai Mitchell.
Things coming out the Bob McGinn articles, you know, regarding
ad Mitchell, But I just think, all in all, and
I heard Luke Swain talk about this on Gills Show
yesterday at Vegas Refund, there's a belief that the wide
receivers after the top three of Harrison, Neighbors and a
Dooonsday could.

Speaker 2 (35:17):
Be dropping a little bit.

Speaker 3 (35:18):
So I think Mitchell falls into that group. So I
will go over twenty seven and a half current price
at DraftKings minus one thirty.

Speaker 2 (35:26):
And then my other.

Speaker 3 (35:27):
Play gave it out earlier this week on VS in primetime.

Speaker 2 (35:30):
It has not moved.

Speaker 3 (35:31):
I'm gonna go nuggets on the series price here, they're
minus three ten favorites in the series at DraftKings, which
by the way is the shortest price that any book
is offering for the Nuggets to just win that series.
I'm gonna go minus one and a half games, So
they have to win this in six, four, five or six.
We catch this at minus one forty, so if it
goes to game seven, it's a losing bet. You just

(35:51):
heard from Tom Havistrow saying how is this going to
be officiated? Certainly a fair question. I think the Lakers
are better than what we saw last year. I like
the fact that for the Lakers, you're getting them on
relative good rest, where you're getting from Tuesday all the
way to Saturday, and first round matchups, as we know,
get stretched out a little bit longer. I guess they're
just a better team. I don't think they have much

(36:12):
of an answer for Nicola Yoki. So Nuggets minus one
and a half series price at minus one forty, both
of those currently available at draft camps.

Speaker 1 (36:21):
All right, now, I feel comfortable doing this now, all
right now that Mitch is not here, but this is
the way this is gone. Here, Mitch has Pacers win
this series at plus one ninety five. Now you're getting
about even money and maybe a little bit more. You
can hold out and see where it goes. But it's
just a number play here. I think that we've gone
a little too far now in one direction, Tom was.

(36:43):
I thought the analogy there was really smart with you know,
David Degli from the sling shot being the transition defense.
I still trust that this Pacers defense is subpar along
the perimeter. I get that they're a little bit better
in half court situations, but numbers would all dictate they're
still very below average. And still trust that Damian Lillard
can get this thing done. It might be a long series.
And guess what if it's a long series and increases

(37:05):
the chances of getting Yannasant to the Kompa back out
there on the floor. Give me the bucks to win
the series against the Indiana Pacers. You bet not. You
know we can't both win.

Speaker 4 (37:14):
Stinks.

Speaker 1 (37:15):
Wish you commitle it. Don't miss out any of the
NBA playoff action at DraftKings sports book and official sports
Betty partner of the NBA from the play in tournament
of the Finals. Draftking Sports because he covered same game parlays,
live betting odds boost send more. Download the Draftking Sports
with a gap use code v sin new customers bet
five dollars, get two hundred dollars in bonus bets instantly.
That's code vsen only on DraftKings. The crown is yours.

Speaker 3 (37:37):
Every NBA series starts this weekend. The NHL series are
all set and ready to roll as well. How about
that the Golden Knights.

Speaker 1 (37:48):
I don't care with that. Well, just yesterday, so we
had Mike Palman yesterday. I tried to fit in a
selfish question about an NHL future that I have that
I totally totally bet on my own accord and was
not just a connect Mike. Yeah, Mike Samich who convinced
me to do it, and I was like, you know what,
I need something to sweat. Let's do this thing. When
I had two tickets, but Derek Stevens and Wilbo's Detroit

(38:08):
wed Wings Red Wings did not make it a cap baby.

Speaker 2 (38:11):
Yeah, suck on that, Wilbo.

Speaker 1 (38:14):
So when I asked Mike about this yesterday, I mean
I was asking producer Luke. I was like, you know
the reaction and I was like, hey, what about Nashville,
and Mike like give me like five words on it.
I was like, oh man, they must be like they
must be they're probably gonna open up is like you know,
four dyke, I don't know, like three to one to
win this year, it's only minus one fifty five. My
pred's got some life here, man.

Speaker 3 (38:32):
Because they want thirty at DraftKings. Ye, right now against
the Canucks.

Speaker 1 (38:35):
Come on, I thought, by my judge of by Mike's reaction,
I thought they're gonna be dead in the water. I
was looking at a massive underdog. My preed's got some life.
Let's go Sunday night, puck drop. Can't wait to watch it.

Speaker 2 (38:47):
I love the Stanley Cup playoffs. They're they're incredible to watch.
The drama.

Speaker 3 (38:52):
Uh and got some sid serious prices, no doubt outside
of you know, my CAP's being plus three forty against
the Rangers.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
Can they win a game? Come on, win one game?

Speaker 1 (39:04):
Biggest robbery that team making it in any better teams
in there, like the Detroit Red Wings.

Speaker 3 (39:09):
Tell your Red Wings not to lose what both games
against the Caps down the stretch?

Speaker 1 (39:12):
You can't do that?

Speaker 5 (39:13):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (39:15):
And then the Caps won.

Speaker 1 (39:16):
With the yeah, I say they win because the Flyers
of course have to pull because they need a regulation wins.

Speaker 3 (39:21):
That was one of the craziest endings I've seen to
a hockey game that you know at And also if
if if they had known that the Red Wings game
had gone to overtime, which I think in real time
it had like a minute prior, they would have known
they were eliminated, so they probably wouldn't have pulled the goalie.
But thank you Flyers for pulling the goalie. So my

(39:42):
Caps can get hammered by the fighting Johnny Lazarus's and
the New York Rangers. So all eight series prices are up.
Let's uh jump back to the NBA as we run
through these series prices. We I gave you very limited time,
so poor poor hosting on my hand my part there
Cleveland and Orlando, I know, and I've made my jokes

(40:05):
too about Cleveland ducking Uh, you know the two seed
in Philadelphia and and and did blowing the Hornets game, uh,
which was just an embarrassment.

Speaker 1 (40:15):
Three at one time. Yeah, in the fourth quarter.

Speaker 3 (40:17):
That's not a way to win. And Amani baits as
your point guard. But they are a minus one ninety
favorite here against the Magic. This series will start on Saturday.
It's the first game, I believe, right Saturday at one
o'clock Eastern where it deserves to be. Yeah, this these uh,
these games will be you have to look hard for
the NBA TV series that is the Cavaliers without Lebron

(40:38):
and the magic.

Speaker 2 (40:38):
But uh, just quick thoughts on this series.

Speaker 3 (40:41):
I think this is the only series we haven't really
touched on here, uh in the show.

Speaker 1 (40:44):
Yeah, this is going to be uh like I get
them like we'll call them get them out Special, which
is let's get the kids out early. This is where
we go to the park. This is when we uh,
you know, we go do stuff on Saturday. Because you
could track this game on your phone, you don't really
I'll say that, I don't know. I'm not gonna bet
this series. I think that the Cavaliers deserve to be
favored here, and to this degree you think it is
something you can quibble with. I think it's probably about

(41:05):
fair by my judgment, because here's the thing Orlando. The
one thing we saw from Orlando down the stretch outside
of just the results, right, which were, yeah, they kind
of floundered a little bit, got a really big win
over Milwaukee to maintain their spot here inside of the
top six. Had they lost it, lose the division and
they're in the play it, but they struggle on offense,
like they're not a good offensive team, and that has
led to some of their shortcomings down the stretch. And

(41:27):
while Donovan Mitchell is not healthy, he has been abys
mulsince receiving the ejections in his knee. I don't know
to Kwhi Leonard, that might not be great and coming
back from that, but at the very least with Cleveland,
Tim you've got a good defensive front court and Evan
Mobiley and Jarrett Allen. You have added shooting to your
roster in Georgi Yang and Max Struz. You still have

(41:47):
Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell. Those are edges that over
the course of a series right should play out in
favor of Cleveland. And even though it was bad last year,
you are the veteran team. You've been here before, this
Orlando's first time around. Donovan Mitchell has played a multiple
playoff series. This team together, they did get embarrassed by
the Nicks last season, but they were at least there.

(42:07):
They've They've got this experience and spattering of these guys
I think they namely Garland. I believe Garland was on
that playing team as well a couple of years back
for Cleveland, So like, this is a team that's been
there and kind of done that a bit, and given
the edges you have, I think that they should win
this series. But in my confidence, coming in and laying
a Buck ninety five with a team whose best offensive
player is been abysmal since he's come back from set injury,

(42:30):
or whose other offensive piece in Darius Garland has been
very inconsistent, and he's gonna play with two non shooters
at a time, I'm not really like running to go
and bet that. So I think for me it's, hey,
if you're picking it, it's gonna be Cleveland, the deserve
to be favored. Maybe it should be more like a
Bucks seventy five Bucks sixty. So thus there is some
value in Orlando. But I do think Cleveland wins, this
moves on, and then he's snuffed down in the next round.

Speaker 3 (42:51):
So we got two games tonight, no official plays from
you on either one of those. Both worth looking at
end game. Just the way the win kind of blows
it up.

Speaker 1 (43:00):
I think I'll be on Miami time, you know, minus
one and a half, like later today when you just
want to do something. By the way, yeah, so I
think one and a half is a fair number to
play there on Miami, and it'll also sit back and wait.
Like again at crucill plays, this will bump back to
like you know, two minus one and a half. Potentially.
We saw exactly the same thing happen with the Los
Angeles and New Orleans when we talked about that dynamic
where a d he's questionable market in the morning moves

(43:22):
toward New Orleans. You're looking at one and a half
in a plus one oh five of the money line.
You can steal a little CLV come back, and of
course that game closes where it does. So I think Miami,
of the two playing games, Miami would be the side
for me, with their their blob of his own defense
to go out there and muck things up against Chicago.

Speaker 3 (43:38):
All right, Gils coming up next. We'll be back on
Monday in our normal spot vs. In primetime six to
nine pm Eastern time. Diamond strong hands was your phrase
over under on quarterbacks four and a half. It's plus
one sixty right now. If you listen to our show,
you would have got a better price. How many quarterbacks

(43:58):
we go in the first round? M hm three three,
jj oh Babe, thanks to Jay Gruden, thanks to Eric Eager,
thanks to Tom Habistrow and JP Finley For JBT, I'm
Tim Murray Gil He's up next right here on v
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