Jason Timpf reacts to Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' STUNNING 109-108 Game 2 win over Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals. Jason discusses Luka's game-winner, how the Mavs have figured out the Minnesota defense, and whether he thinks this series is OVER heading back to Dallas for Game 3. #volume #herd
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You're at the volume. Happy Friday, everybody, hop all of
you guys have had a great week. Game two of
the Western Conference Finals goes to the Dallas Mavericks on
a game winner from Luka Doncics in a hell of
a game. With three seconds left, Lucas steps back over
ride Goobert. Now Dallas is up to oh and they're
headed home and Minnesota is in a world of trouble.
We're gonna break it down from the perspective of both teams.
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the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So obviously, from the Minnesota perspective, it would be easy
to talk yourself into kind of a positive outlook for
(03:00):
being down two oh, right, like you led late in
game one, you lead late in game two, just as
easily be up two oh as you are currently in
your situation where you're down oh two right. I mean,
just look at tonight, Like if Luca misses a step back,
or if nas Reid hits his three from the right wing,
then it's one to one, right, or something goes differently
in game one, maybe you're up to oh right. I
(03:20):
see it very differently, And like, for the record, I
picked Minnesota to start the series, but like, I don't
care about being right. That means nothing to me. To
quote the great Colin Coward. What really matters is getting
it right to me, and I genuinely feel that way.
I take this job very seriously, and I just my
job is to look at what's happening on the basketball
court and try to interpret it into something right. And
(03:42):
regardless of what may or may not have happened to
Minnesota to be in this predicament down two oh, the
reality is is that Dallas is way more capable of
manipulating Minnesota's defense and getting what they want then Minnesota
is on the other end of the floor. Nas three
with I think it was like a couple minutes left.
(04:03):
I can't remember, but they put them up one oh
two to one oh one, and I tweeted at that moment,
I was like, Minnesota's up one. They very well might
win this game, but it doesn't matter. Dallas is going
to win the series. And it's because of these specific
dynamics that I'm talking about. We're gonna get into the
the to the details, but like it just it wouldn't
have mattered if they would have won this game. I
(04:23):
had a mail bad question last night. Someone asked me
about overreacting to game ones, Right, Like that's always what happens, right,
Like somebody wins a game one, and then everybody that
picked that particular team to win starts running on victory laps,
and then everyone else is like scared that they're wrong,
and it's like, actually, a lot can just be weird
in a game one, Right, You need a substantial sample
(04:43):
size of basketball to really interpret what the advantages are
for either team, and regardless of the result, forget about
like beause Dallas, what did Dallas win one oh nine
to one oh eight tonight? Forget about the scoreboard. If
you actually just look at what was happening on the court,
it's very clear that Dallas has more advantages than Minnesota
does in this series. Let's talk them through Luca versus
(05:07):
Jada McDaniels and then Anthony Edwards versus Derek Jones Jr.
Who looks more comfortable getting to their spots Against those
individual matchups. Luca's too big and strong for Jada McDaniels.
Darrek Jones Jr. Is another top tier NBA athlete with length,
and he can actually match up with Anthony Edwards a
little bit better. Obviously, there's a team scheme element to it,
(05:28):
and we'll get a little bit into that in a
little bit, but there's no doubt that even just on
an island, Luca has a better matchup. Minnesota does not
have a guy that can make Luca feel uncomfortable. Dallas does,
at least to a certain extent with Anthony Edwards. The
Kyrie matchup Kyrie versus Anthony Edwards, and then Carl Anthony
Towns versus PJ. Washington. Those are your secondary stars, right
(05:50):
who looks more comfortable getting to their spots and contributing
offensively Kyrie Irving or Karl Anthony Towns. Very clearly, Karl
Anthony Towns right. I pulled these stats because these are
absolutely crazy. Game one, Dallas got one point one point
one points per ISO, Minnesota got zero point three to nine.
Game two Dallas gets one point two to nine points
(06:11):
per ISO, Minnesota gets zero point four to four points
per ISO. So even just on an island scoring, Luca
and Kyrie clearly have better advantages in this series than
Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Towns do. Right. Look at
the pick and roll. When the MAVs run pick and roll,
Luka Nancic can very easily get Jaden McDaniels into trail
(06:33):
position where he can put him into jail and either
operate somewhere in the mid range or get downhill and
manipulate Rudy Gobert into helping in some way, shape or
form so that he can throw a drop off pass
or he's making the kickout reads the other end of
the floor. Derek Jones and PJ. Washington go for seven
from three tonight. They're still not shooting well by the way.
Jump shooting in this game. It was really bad. In
Game one, Minnesota one point one four points per jumper,
(06:56):
Dallas zero point nine to three. So Dallas is still
on the short end of the stick in terms of
shooting result in this areas we've seen in this playoff run, PJ.
Washington and Derek Jones Junior convert spot up possessions at
a hell of a higher rate than they have so
far in this series. Dallas looks way more comfortable in
pick and roll. Look at the Wolves. On the Wolves front,
it's like high drop against Anthony Edwards. They're able to
(07:19):
contest his pull up three better than Denver did. There,
Like literally, Anthony Edwards is incapable of getting into the lane.
He is two for eight in the restricted area so
far in this entire series through two games. So that's
bad no matter how you look at it. The percentages
twenty five percent in the restricted area. That's bad. Eight
(07:41):
attempts in two games. He averaged over seven attempts in
the restricted area per game in the entire seven game
Denver Nugget series. So like, no matter how you look
at it, the only opportunity for Minnesota to score effectively
is to get out in transition off of stops, Whereas
anytime Dallas wants to, they can methodically execute and get
(08:05):
to a high quality shot in the half court They've
been up over one hundred points per one hundred half
court plays in both games. They are dominating the half
court battle in the series. The only reason that it
has appeared as close as it has is because of
the fact that they've knocked down three point shots. Guys
like Jade McDaniel's hitting in Game one, guys like naseried
Hitten in Game two. They've shot the ball better and
(08:26):
it's the only reason it is looked as close as
it has. But the advantages are very clear. Dallas is
more capable of manipulating Minnesota's defense and getting quality shots
than Minnesota is capable of doing on the other end
of the floor. So regardless of what would happen tonight,
and by the way, Dallas is up to oh so
it's manifested in the result. But regardless of what would
(08:48):
have happened tonight, or if Minnesota would have split it
to split the two games, or if Minnesota would have
been up to to OH, I think Dallas would have
gone home and one two and regained control of the series. Anyway, now,
who knows if Dallas will relax in some sort of
profound way going home in Minnesota manages to steal one
of those games. But I think this series is over.
I think it's over regardless of what happened down the
(09:10):
stretch tonight. Dallas just it's a lot of it's matchup based.
And that's the fascinating piece of this right, Like looking back,
Minnesota goes up against a couple of really poor rim
protection teams in Phoenix and Denver, and their offense wakes
up in a wait, never did all season, right, And
Dallas has the ability to kind of play them into
(09:32):
those situations, right, But like that's how it goes, right,
Like matchups are are what determines basketball games in so
many different ways, and Dallas is just very well equipped
to beat this Minnesota Timberwolves team. And the Timbrelves do
not have many more cards they can play. They can
try benching Rudy Gobert and playing their shooting bigs instead
to try to space the floor for ant. That might
(09:53):
get them going offensively. But I think they're gonna get picked,
like they're getting picked apart now with Rudy go bear
on the floor. Just wait until you see what it
looks like when you ditch Rudy Gobert. And here's the thing,
Rudy Gobert. He's getting slandered all over the place. And
by the way, he did a very poor job on
that final possession. I clipped a little screenshot you guys
can see where Rudy Gobert like they're down two. Everybody
(10:16):
in the entire world knows Luca's hunting the three there,
everybody except for Rudy Gobert, apparently, because on the last
move that Luca Adanci hits, Rudy takes a negative step
with his right foot, so he's got his back turned
to Luca. I took a screenshot of this and put
on my Twitter feed. His right foot is about seventeen
feet from the rim, so just behind the foul line,
(10:37):
and his back is turned as he's getting ready to
turn back to close out on Luca. He bit on
a dribble drive fake on a possession where everybody knew
that the dribble drive doesn't hurt you, because at the
worst case scenario, you are going to overtime and everybody
knows Luca's a psychopath and he's gonna be going for
the three point shot. But here's the thing, Rudy Gobert
did a poor job on that final possession. But he's
(11:00):
a very good defensive player, and Minnesota has fared better
in this series when he's been on the floor. So
if you think that benching Rudy Gobert is just going
to magically solve all of your problems, I disagree. I
think that your defense will just get substantially worse than
any sort of increase you might get on the offensive
end of the floor. Minnesota can try switching in pick
and roll more, right, that's an option they could go to. Well,
(11:21):
we just saw that on the final possession of today's game,
and my guess is Luca would just figure out Rudy
Gobert as well over the course of some sort of
large sample size. They can try to blitz more. Dallas
still hasn't really shot well though, And you know, Derek
Jones and PJ. Washington went zero for seven from three tonight.
That might be their best strategy for Minnesota to try
(11:41):
to sell this offense down, but it hasn't yielded good results. Like,
I don't think that that's going to be some sort
of magical fix in this series. Again, jump shooting tonight,
Minnesota was better again. Dallas dominated points in the paint again, like,
I don't think that there's some sort of magical hard
that Minnesota can play that can flip the obvious dynamic
(12:04):
that Dallas is a better half court offense. And this
is where we got to get to Luca. He just
unbelievably amazing again, you know, in terms of like actually
operating from the perimeter, Like I think, I think that
you can we can get into arguments about this kind
of thing over the summer. But like Nikola Jokic is
(12:24):
the guy that you would point to as someone who
might be better than Luka Doncic. But in terms of
like operating from the perimeter in the ball with the
ball in your hands, live dribble, there is nobody in
the NBA that can dissect an elite defense in the
half court the way that Luka Doncic can. There aren't
very many perimeter defenders that can even make him feel
(12:46):
remotely uncomfortable, Like lou Dort did about as good of
a job as he could, and Lucas still found a
way with the with with the strength of their defense
and with support from Kyrie Irving, they knocked off the
one seed. Even with a perimeter defender that is like
built in some bizarre NFL lab to be the guy
who guards Luka dancis right, So you can't find a
guy who can guard him on an island. There's no
(13:07):
coverage that works. You try switching, he's gonna barbecue you're
big man. That's the That's what I don't. I don't
think Rudy Gobert is as good defensively as his accolades
would lead you to believe. But he's still a very
good defensive player. Is he as good as Anthony Davis
or bam Adebayo or Victor Webbin Yama or Draymond Green.
Probably not, but he's still damn good. And Luca barbecued
his ass. Right. You can try blitzing, He's gonna make
(13:29):
the read every single time, and it's gonna end in
either lob dunks or corner threes. Again, Derek Lively in particular,
has has been so damn good on the short roll,
making decisions when he kind of gets into space off
of those blitzes, Like there's literally nothing you can do
with Luca, He's gonna find a way. The amount of
(13:49):
comically easy shots that he generated against Minnesota's defense in
these first two games is insane Dallas hasn't shot nearly
as well as they are capable of. It hasn't even
manifested in the way that it can manifest. But still,
when push comes to shove late in these games, he's
found a way to keep the ball in his hands
through straight iso and he's been able to get the
(14:11):
looks that he needs to close the deal. Kyrie Irving
once again came up huge when it mattered. Hits three
threes at the beginning of the fourth quarter that kind
of like erased any sort of benefit that Minnesota got
out of nas Reed's hot streak. He missed those two
clutch free throws late, they were weird two kind of
his release looked kind of weird. That was kind of
(14:33):
a funky sequence. But then he makes up for it
by hitting that huge corner three later that cuts the
lead to two. And like, once again, like there's always
the shot before the shot that gets looked over right.
It's like it's like the Ray Allen corner three in
the twenty thirteen finals, Lebron hit a three on the
previous possession, Like it's there's always like a shot before
the shot. Kyrie's three in that corner was the shot
before the shot that Luca hit that like put them
(14:55):
in a position where they could get there. That was
a massive, massive bucket. And it's been kind of a
theme in this postseason that he can kind of ease
into games and then like he just finds a way.
It's always like that early fourth quarter stretch when Luca's
off the floor that Kyrie just goes super saying and
finds a way to get baskets for his team and
put them over the edge. And then I just have
to shout out Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford. They are
(15:16):
kicking ass in this series. They're protecting the hell out
of the rim. I pointed out that Anthony Edwards two
for eight and the restricted areas that here's another crazy
stat for you. Minnesota shot sixty five percent in the
restricted area against Denver. They're shooting fifty four percent in
the restricted area against Dallas. That is an eleven percent
reduction inefficiency there, fifty four percent. They're barely making more
(15:40):
than half of their layups against this minute against this
Dallas defense. Like, and that's Lively and Gafford. They've been incredible.
What a Gafford have four blocks tonight? Derek glively had
a huge stop on a switch against Anthony Edwards late
in the game. They've just been absolutely awesome. I can't
I can't say enough about him. Luca's playing like Luca's
(16:00):
banged up, and he's playing like the best player in
the world. Kyrie Irving is in a perfectly suited role
for him on this team where he's contributing on both
ends of the floor in a big way. They've just
absolutely hit slam dunk signings in the on the margins
and the offseason, like Derek Jones Junior, even again, the
even the Grant Williams signing to sign in trade that
(16:22):
was a vehicle which with which they used to bring
back guys like PJ. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Like it
just they they just look like they just have put
this together in such a beautiful way to accentuate their stars.
I just can't say enough about how impressed I've been
with Dallas in this series. Again, like I very you
guys know me, I very rarely am like this series
(16:44):
is over. Guy. Even when Minnesota went up two oh,
if you guys remember, I was like, yeah, I think
Minnesota is gonna win. But I can't say the series
is over. This series is over that like Minnesota cannot
solve these problems that Dallas presents to them. And it's
all of these guys. Luca and Kyrie are kicking the
shit out of Anton Karl Anthony Towns, and Derek Lively
(17:05):
and Daniel Gafford are kicking the shit out of Rudi Gobert.
It is a matchup by matchup. Dallas is just outclassing them.
And the only reason it has appeared as close as
it has is three point shooting. Like yeah, if PJ.
Washington and Derek Jones Junior shoot remotely the way they've
been shooting the remainder of this the rest of this postseason,
(17:27):
they're They're winning both of these games comfortably, like Minnesota
is in a world of trouble on the Minnesota front.
I want to talk about Anthony Edwards for a second.
I had another nightmare games five or seventeen from the field.
The main thing that's standing out to me. I talked
a lot about this dynamic in the Phoenix series, but
Anthony Edwards is such a profoundly gifted downhill athlete that
(17:49):
his pull up jumper becomes really easy because he's just
coming downhill at you and every defenders on their heels.
But because of the way that Dallas can protect the rim,
it has allowed Derek Jones Junior to press up a
little bit more on ant in a way that the
other opponents could not, and it is put him in
(18:09):
a predicament where now the majority of his shot attempts
are coming in the form of pull up jump shots.
He's taken eight shots in the restricted area, eight of
them in two games. Everything else is from the perimeter,
everything else. And so as a result, instead of that
being that give and take of like downhill force pull
(18:30):
up jump shooting, instead it's like there's nothing downhill and
it's all pull up jump shooting. By the way, this
is a credit to Dallas's defense. You don't think Anthony
Edwards knew coming into the game he needed to get
downhill more. Early in this game, he had two downhill
drives in transition where he got fouls. He had a
playing pick and roll where he got downhill and made
a kick out pass to Karl Anthony Towns. But like
(18:51):
when Dallas really really loads up on him, he cannot
turn the corner, he cannot get into the lane, like
and there's a like that has manifested in his jumper
not going in. This is the worst. This series has
been the worst he's shot from the perimeter in his
entire playoff career. He's had four series before this where
(19:12):
he's been deadly as a pull up jump shooter. This series,
he has not been able to get that part of
his game going. And to me, it's because there's not
that balance. He can't turn the corner. So now he's
he offensively is effectively on his heels, which is allowing
Derek Jones to be on his toes and more forward aggressive.
He's not getting good looks, and because he's not getting
(19:34):
good looks, he's not making them. And this is where, like,
you know, if it's too early to get into like
big offseason kind of big picture stuff with Minnesota, but
this is the go Beart problem, and there is a
conversation to be had about the compros and cons of
having him on the floor because he does not have
good hands. He does not catch and finish everything. He
does not make good decisions on the roll. How many
(19:56):
times did he smoke shots at the rim tonight? Like
that's not his game. He does not provide much in
the way of spacing at all whatsoever. And so as
a result, like the game is going to be difficult
for Aunt whenever he runs into a team that can
truly protect the rim in a playoff setting. Anytime he
runs into that problem, this kind of thing will manifest. Now,
(20:19):
obviously there's an opportunity there based on Gobert's contract, in
the realities of his limitations, He's probably gonna be a
timberwolf for a long time. Right, So, if you're Anthony Edwards,
what's the move there? What does ant have to get
better at to solve this kind of problem? And again,
(20:40):
every all time great runs into a certain type of problem, right,
Like for Luca over the years, it's kind of like
Andrew Wiggins in the twenty twenty two Western Conference finals.
Whenever somebody can actually put on a big, strong athlete
that Luca can't bully, that's kind of like his big
Rubik's cube that he has to solve. By the way,
he solved it against lou Dort and won the series, right,
(21:01):
didn't in twenty twenty two. He solved it this year, right,
But like that's his big challenge that they has to
figure out, what if there's somebody that actually he can't
bully right every like for Lebron James, what if everyone
just SAgs back and dares you to shoot jumpers? What
are you gonna do? For Anthony Edwards, it's what if
someone can protect the rim and you're this downhill slasher.
(21:22):
What are you going to do? And that piece for
Anthony Edwards, in my opinion, is going to be very
similar to what you're seeing from Luca. Ant has to
learn to add that kind of like in between change
of pace gear. He has to be able to put
defenders into jail, manipulate rim protectors, find a way to
get past Derek Jones in a ball screen, but then
(21:43):
methodically work downhill and generate some kind of opening where
you can pick a team apart in the ball screen. Again,
Dallas is guarding these ball screens three on two. They
are up at the level and they have somebody tagging
the roller. It's three on two. The openings are gonna
be through and dissecting the defense in a similar way
(22:05):
to what Luca is doing. That's the next step for him.
He's twenty two years old. He's got a lot of
time to figure it out. But he's this is not
the last team that he's gonna run into. That's gonna
have a seven footer that can jump underneath the rim,
and a good athlete on the perimeter that can load
up on him and enough speed around him to kind
of put three into a ball screen action. Right, So,
(22:27):
like that's gonna be the that's gonna be the next
step for it is figuring out how to solve this
particular type of problem overall for Minnesota. You know, every
year I cover the NBA, I learn more and uh again,
Like as as I said at the beginning of the show,
I don't care about being right. I care about getting
it right, and so much is about learning from what
(22:48):
the game is teaching us in these results. And I
had all of these concerns about Minnesota during the regular season,
like oh, do they have reels like the real ability
to space the floor and counter rim protection Anthony Edwards
and Karl Anthony Towns's decision makers. Look at the decision
making at the end of this game from Anthony Edwards
(23:09):
throwing the ball out of bounds, just like inability to
kind of solve what's happening in front of him. The
late game offense in general, this team was one of
the worst late game offenses in the league all year long,
and I think we myself got dissuaded by virtue of
Phoenix and Denver's inability to protect the rim into thinking
that their offense had like figured something out. But all
(23:31):
that is is like ant superpower is downhill athleticism, and
those teams just couldn't match up with that problem, whereas
Dallas has something that can counter that. Now it's kind
of exposing that issue. And so I mean, matchups determine
most of this stuff over the course of the NBA.
But like all you're seeing from Minnesota is the same
(23:51):
sort of issues they had all season. They've just been
brought to the forefront by virtue of a matchup that
can shine a flashlight on those things. But again, I
think Dallas is gonna go home. I think this series
is This could very easily be a sweep. I'll say
in five, just because I have too much respect for
Minnesota and what they've accomplished to this point. But I
think this series is over. I do not see a
(24:13):
move that Minnesota can make to flip the script. The
pieces are not there, the chess move is not there.
This is checkmate. There's nothing they can do. So the
Dallas fans, I think it's I think you a barring injury,
can start getting a little excited about the fact that
the NBA Finals is a very realistic goal for you here. Obviously,
(24:33):
we're going to cover the rest of the series as
though Minnesota does have a chance, just because that's the
nature of the profession, and we're gonna give We're gonna
go live after Game three and see if they can't
turn it around. But I don't see it. I just
don't see any sort of of easy fix there on
the table. All Right, guys, that is all I have
for tonight. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting the show. We will be back tomorrow morning with
(24:54):
a little bit of film session on this game, and
then we'll be covering Game three of the Eastern Conference Finals.
I will so you guys did the volume
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and responsible gambling resources. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight.
(02:16):
You're at the volume. Happy Friday, everybody, hop all of
you guys have had a great week. Game two of
the Western Conference Finals goes to the Dallas Mavericks on
a game winner from Luka Doncics in a hell of
a game. With three seconds left, Lucas steps back over
ride Goobert. Now Dallas is up to oh and they're
headed home and Minnesota is in a world of trouble.
We're gonna break it down from the perspective of both teams.
You guys know the joke before we get started. Subscribe
(02:38):
to the Hoops and I YouTube channels. You don't miss
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under Hoops Tonight, and keep dropping mail back questions in
those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout
the rest of the postseason. All right, let's talk some basketball.
So obviously, from the Minnesota perspective, it would be easy
to talk yourself into kind of a positive outlook for
(03:00):
being down two oh, right, like you led late in
game one, you lead late in game two, just as
easily be up two oh as you are currently in
your situation where you're down oh two right. I mean,
just look at tonight, Like if Luca misses a step back,
or if nas Reid hits his three from the right wing,
then it's one to one, right, or something goes differently
in game one, maybe you're up to oh right. I
(03:20):
see it very differently, And like, for the record, I
picked Minnesota to start the series, but like, I don't
care about being right. That means nothing to me. To
quote the great Colin Coward. What really matters is getting
it right to me, and I genuinely feel that way.
I take this job very seriously, and I just my
job is to look at what's happening on the basketball
court and try to interpret it into something right. And
(03:42):
regardless of what may or may not have happened to
Minnesota to be in this predicament down two oh, the
reality is is that Dallas is way more capable of
manipulating Minnesota's defense and getting what they want then Minnesota
is on the other end of the floor. Nas three
with I think it was like a couple minutes left.
(04:03):
I can't remember, but they put them up one oh
two to one oh one, and I tweeted at that moment,
I was like, Minnesota's up one. They very well might
win this game, but it doesn't matter. Dallas is going
to win the series. And it's because of these specific
dynamics that I'm talking about. We're gonna get into the
the to the details, but like it just it wouldn't
have mattered if they would have won this game. I
(04:23):
had a mail bad question last night. Someone asked me
about overreacting to game ones, Right, Like that's always what happens, right,
Like somebody wins a game one, and then everybody that
picked that particular team to win starts running on victory laps,
and then everyone else is like scared that they're wrong,
and it's like, actually, a lot can just be weird
in a game one, Right, You need a substantial sample
(04:43):
size of basketball to really interpret what the advantages are
for either team, and regardless of the result, forget about
like beause Dallas, what did Dallas win one oh nine
to one oh eight tonight? Forget about the scoreboard. If
you actually just look at what was happening on the court,
it's very clear that Dallas has more advantages than Minnesota
does in this series. Let's talk them through Luca versus
(05:07):
Jada McDaniels and then Anthony Edwards versus Derek Jones Jr.
Who looks more comfortable getting to their spots Against those
individual matchups. Luca's too big and strong for Jada McDaniels.
Darrek Jones Jr. Is another top tier NBA athlete with length,
and he can actually match up with Anthony Edwards a
little bit better. Obviously, there's a team scheme element to it,
(05:28):
and we'll get a little bit into that in a
little bit, but there's no doubt that even just on
an island, Luca has a better matchup. Minnesota does not
have a guy that can make Luca feel uncomfortable. Dallas does,
at least to a certain extent with Anthony Edwards. The
Kyrie matchup Kyrie versus Anthony Edwards, and then Carl Anthony
Towns versus PJ. Washington. Those are your secondary stars, right
(05:50):
who looks more comfortable getting to their spots and contributing
offensively Kyrie Irving or Karl Anthony Towns. Very clearly, Karl
Anthony Towns right. I pulled these stats because these are
absolutely crazy. Game one, Dallas got one point one point
one points per ISO, Minnesota got zero point three to nine.
Game two Dallas gets one point two to nine points
(06:11):
per ISO, Minnesota gets zero point four to four points
per ISO. So even just on an island scoring, Luca
and Kyrie clearly have better advantages in this series than
Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Towns do. Right. Look at
the pick and roll. When the MAVs run pick and roll,
Luka Nancic can very easily get Jaden McDaniels into trail
(06:33):
position where he can put him into jail and either
operate somewhere in the mid range or get downhill and
manipulate Rudy Gobert into helping in some way, shape or
form so that he can throw a drop off pass
or he's making the kickout reads the other end of
the floor. Derek Jones and PJ. Washington go for seven
from three tonight. They're still not shooting well by the way.
Jump shooting in this game. It was really bad. In
Game one, Minnesota one point one four points per jumper,
(06:56):
Dallas zero point nine to three. So Dallas is still
on the short end of the stick in terms of
shooting result in this areas we've seen in this playoff run, PJ.
Washington and Derek Jones Junior convert spot up possessions at
a hell of a higher rate than they have so
far in this series. Dallas looks way more comfortable in
pick and roll. Look at the Wolves. On the Wolves front,
it's like high drop against Anthony Edwards. They're able to
(07:19):
contest his pull up three better than Denver did. There,
Like literally, Anthony Edwards is incapable of getting into the lane.
He is two for eight in the restricted area so
far in this entire series through two games. So that's
bad no matter how you look at it. The percentages
twenty five percent in the restricted area. That's bad. Eight
(07:41):
attempts in two games. He averaged over seven attempts in
the restricted area per game in the entire seven game
Denver Nugget series. So like, no matter how you look
at it, the only opportunity for Minnesota to score effectively
is to get out in transition off of stops, Whereas
anytime Dallas wants to, they can methodically execute and get
(08:05):
to a high quality shot in the half court They've
been up over one hundred points per one hundred half
court plays in both games. They are dominating the half
court battle in the series. The only reason that it
has appeared as close as it has is because of
the fact that they've knocked down three point shots. Guys
like Jade McDaniel's hitting in Game one, guys like naseried
Hitten in Game two. They've shot the ball better and
(08:26):
it's the only reason it is looked as close as
it has. But the advantages are very clear. Dallas is
more capable of manipulating Minnesota's defense and getting quality shots
than Minnesota is capable of doing on the other end
of the floor. So regardless of what would happen tonight,
and by the way, Dallas is up to oh so
it's manifested in the result. But regardless of what would
(08:48):
have happened tonight, or if Minnesota would have split it
to split the two games, or if Minnesota would have
been up to to OH, I think Dallas would have
gone home and one two and regained control of the series. Anyway, now,
who knows if Dallas will relax in some sort of
profound way going home in Minnesota manages to steal one
of those games. But I think this series is over.
I think it's over regardless of what happened down the
(09:10):
stretch tonight. Dallas just it's a lot of it's matchup based.
And that's the fascinating piece of this right, Like looking back,
Minnesota goes up against a couple of really poor rim
protection teams in Phoenix and Denver, and their offense wakes
up in a wait, never did all season, right, And
Dallas has the ability to kind of play them into
(09:32):
those situations, right, But like that's how it goes, right,
Like matchups are are what determines basketball games in so
many different ways, and Dallas is just very well equipped
to beat this Minnesota Timberwolves team. And the Timbrelves do
not have many more cards they can play. They can
try benching Rudy Gobert and playing their shooting bigs instead
to try to space the floor for ant. That might
(09:53):
get them going offensively. But I think they're gonna get picked,
like they're getting picked apart now with Rudy go bear
on the floor. Just wait until you see what it
looks like when you ditch Rudy Gobert. And here's the thing,
Rudy Gobert. He's getting slandered all over the place. And
by the way, he did a very poor job on
that final possession. I clipped a little screenshot you guys
can see where Rudy Gobert like they're down two. Everybody
(10:16):
in the entire world knows Luca's hunting the three there,
everybody except for Rudy Gobert, apparently, because on the last
move that Luca Adanci hits, Rudy takes a negative step
with his right foot, so he's got his back turned
to Luca. I took a screenshot of this and put
on my Twitter feed. His right foot is about seventeen
feet from the rim, so just behind the foul line,
(10:37):
and his back is turned as he's getting ready to
turn back to close out on Luca. He bit on
a dribble drive fake on a possession where everybody knew
that the dribble drive doesn't hurt you, because at the
worst case scenario, you are going to overtime and everybody
knows Luca's a psychopath and he's gonna be going for
the three point shot. But here's the thing, Rudy Gobert
did a poor job on that final possession. But he's
(11:00):
a very good defensive player, and Minnesota has fared better
in this series when he's been on the floor. So
if you think that benching Rudy Gobert is just going
to magically solve all of your problems, I disagree. I
think that your defense will just get substantially worse than
any sort of increase you might get on the offensive
end of the floor. Minnesota can try switching in pick
and roll more, right, that's an option they could go to. Well,
(11:21):
we just saw that on the final possession of today's game,
and my guess is Luca would just figure out Rudy
Gobert as well over the course of some sort of
large sample size. They can try to blitz more. Dallas
still hasn't really shot well though, And you know, Derek
Jones and PJ. Washington went zero for seven from three tonight.
That might be their best strategy for Minnesota to try
(11:41):
to sell this offense down, but it hasn't yielded good results. Like,
I don't think that that's going to be some sort
of magical fix in this series. Again, jump shooting tonight,
Minnesota was better again. Dallas dominated points in the paint again, like,
I don't think that there's some sort of magical hard
that Minnesota can play that can flip the obvious dynamic
(12:04):
that Dallas is a better half court offense. And this
is where we got to get to Luca. He just
unbelievably amazing again, you know, in terms of like actually
operating from the perimeter, Like I think, I think that
you can we can get into arguments about this kind
of thing over the summer. But like Nikola Jokic is
(12:24):
the guy that you would point to as someone who
might be better than Luka Doncic. But in terms of
like operating from the perimeter in the ball with the
ball in your hands, live dribble, there is nobody in
the NBA that can dissect an elite defense in the
half court the way that Luka Doncic can. There aren't
very many perimeter defenders that can even make him feel
(12:46):
remotely uncomfortable, Like lou Dort did about as good of
a job as he could, and Lucas still found a
way with the with with the strength of their defense
and with support from Kyrie Irving, they knocked off the
one seed. Even with a perimeter defender that is like
built in some bizarre NFL lab to be the guy
who guards Luka dancis right, So you can't find a
guy who can guard him on an island. There's no
(13:07):
coverage that works. You try switching, he's gonna barbecue you're
big man. That's the That's what I don't. I don't
think Rudy Gobert is as good defensively as his accolades
would lead you to believe. But he's still a very
good defensive player. Is he as good as Anthony Davis
or bam Adebayo or Victor Webbin Yama or Draymond Green.
Probably not, but he's still damn good. And Luca barbecued
his ass. Right. You can try blitzing, He's gonna make
(13:29):
the read every single time, and it's gonna end in
either lob dunks or corner threes. Again, Derek Lively in particular,
has has been so damn good on the short roll,
making decisions when he kind of gets into space off
of those blitzes, Like there's literally nothing you can do
with Luca, He's gonna find a way. The amount of
(13:49):
comically easy shots that he generated against Minnesota's defense in
these first two games is insane Dallas hasn't shot nearly
as well as they are capable of. It hasn't even
manifested in the way that it can manifest. But still,
when push comes to shove late in these games, he's
found a way to keep the ball in his hands
through straight iso and he's been able to get the
(14:11):
looks that he needs to close the deal. Kyrie Irving
once again came up huge when it mattered. Hits three
threes at the beginning of the fourth quarter that kind
of like erased any sort of benefit that Minnesota got
out of nas Reed's hot streak. He missed those two
clutch free throws late, they were weird two kind of
his release looked kind of weird. That was kind of
(14:33):
a funky sequence. But then he makes up for it
by hitting that huge corner three later that cuts the
lead to two. And like, once again, like there's always
the shot before the shot that gets looked over right.
It's like it's like the Ray Allen corner three in
the twenty thirteen finals, Lebron hit a three on the
previous possession, Like it's there's always like a shot before
the shot. Kyrie's three in that corner was the shot
before the shot that Luca hit that like put them
(14:55):
in a position where they could get there. That was
a massive, massive bucket. And it's been kind of a
theme in this postseason that he can kind of ease
into games and then like he just finds a way.
It's always like that early fourth quarter stretch when Luca's
off the floor that Kyrie just goes super saying and
finds a way to get baskets for his team and
put them over the edge. And then I just have
to shout out Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford. They are
(15:16):
kicking ass in this series. They're protecting the hell out
of the rim. I pointed out that Anthony Edwards two
for eight and the restricted areas that here's another crazy
stat for you. Minnesota shot sixty five percent in the
restricted area against Denver. They're shooting fifty four percent in
the restricted area against Dallas. That is an eleven percent
reduction inefficiency there, fifty four percent. They're barely making more
(15:40):
than half of their layups against this minute against this
Dallas defense. Like, and that's Lively and Gafford. They've been incredible.
What a Gafford have four blocks tonight? Derek glively had
a huge stop on a switch against Anthony Edwards late
in the game. They've just been absolutely awesome. I can't
I can't say enough about him. Luca's playing like Luca's
(16:00):
banged up, and he's playing like the best player in
the world. Kyrie Irving is in a perfectly suited role
for him on this team where he's contributing on both
ends of the floor in a big way. They've just
absolutely hit slam dunk signings in the on the margins
and the offseason, like Derek Jones Junior, even again, the
even the Grant Williams signing to sign in trade that
(16:22):
was a vehicle which with which they used to bring
back guys like PJ. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Like it
just they they just look like they just have put
this together in such a beautiful way to accentuate their stars.
I just can't say enough about how impressed I've been
with Dallas in this series. Again, like I very you
guys know me, I very rarely am like this series
(16:44):
is over. Guy. Even when Minnesota went up two oh,
if you guys remember, I was like, yeah, I think
Minnesota is gonna win. But I can't say the series
is over. This series is over that like Minnesota cannot
solve these problems that Dallas presents to them. And it's
all of these guys. Luca and Kyrie are kicking the
shit out of Anton Karl Anthony Towns, and Derek Lively
(17:05):
and Daniel Gafford are kicking the shit out of Rudi Gobert.
It is a matchup by matchup. Dallas is just outclassing them.
And the only reason it has appeared as close as
it has is three point shooting. Like yeah, if PJ.
Washington and Derek Jones Junior shoot remotely the way they've
been shooting the remainder of this the rest of this postseason,
(17:27):
they're They're winning both of these games comfortably, like Minnesota
is in a world of trouble on the Minnesota front.
I want to talk about Anthony Edwards for a second.
I had another nightmare games five or seventeen from the field.
The main thing that's standing out to me. I talked
a lot about this dynamic in the Phoenix series, but
Anthony Edwards is such a profoundly gifted downhill athlete that
(17:49):
his pull up jumper becomes really easy because he's just
coming downhill at you and every defenders on their heels.
But because of the way that Dallas can protect the rim,
it has allowed Derek Jones Junior to press up a
little bit more on ant in a way that the
other opponents could not, and it is put him in
(18:09):
a predicament where now the majority of his shot attempts
are coming in the form of pull up jump shots.
He's taken eight shots in the restricted area, eight of
them in two games. Everything else is from the perimeter,
everything else. And so as a result, instead of that
being that give and take of like downhill force pull
(18:30):
up jump shooting, instead it's like there's nothing downhill and
it's all pull up jump shooting. By the way, this
is a credit to Dallas's defense. You don't think Anthony
Edwards knew coming into the game he needed to get
downhill more. Early in this game, he had two downhill
drives in transition where he got fouls. He had a
playing pick and roll where he got downhill and made
a kick out pass to Karl Anthony Towns. But like
(18:51):
when Dallas really really loads up on him, he cannot
turn the corner, he cannot get into the lane, like
and there's a like that has manifested in his jumper
not going in. This is the worst. This series has
been the worst he's shot from the perimeter in his
entire playoff career. He's had four series before this where
(19:12):
he's been deadly as a pull up jump shooter. This series,
he has not been able to get that part of
his game going. And to me, it's because there's not
that balance. He can't turn the corner. So now he's
he offensively is effectively on his heels, which is allowing
Derek Jones to be on his toes and more forward aggressive.
He's not getting good looks, and because he's not getting
(19:34):
good looks, he's not making them. And this is where, like,
you know, if it's too early to get into like
big offseason kind of big picture stuff with Minnesota, but
this is the go Beart problem, and there is a
conversation to be had about the compros and cons of
having him on the floor because he does not have
good hands. He does not catch and finish everything. He
does not make good decisions on the roll. How many
(19:56):
times did he smoke shots at the rim tonight? Like
that's not his game. He does not provide much in
the way of spacing at all whatsoever. And so as
a result, like the game is going to be difficult
for Aunt whenever he runs into a team that can
truly protect the rim in a playoff setting. Anytime he
runs into that problem, this kind of thing will manifest. Now,
(20:19):
obviously there's an opportunity there based on Gobert's contract, in
the realities of his limitations, He's probably gonna be a
timberwolf for a long time. Right, So, if you're Anthony Edwards,
what's the move there? What does ant have to get
better at to solve this kind of problem? And again,
(20:40):
every all time great runs into a certain type of problem, right,
Like for Luca over the years, it's kind of like
Andrew Wiggins in the twenty twenty two Western Conference finals.
Whenever somebody can actually put on a big, strong athlete
that Luca can't bully, that's kind of like his big
Rubik's cube that he has to solve. By the way,
he solved it against lou Dort and won the series, right,
(21:01):
didn't in twenty twenty two. He solved it this year, right,
But like that's his big challenge that they has to
figure out, what if there's somebody that actually he can't
bully right every like for Lebron James, what if everyone
just SAgs back and dares you to shoot jumpers? What
are you gonna do? For Anthony Edwards, it's what if
someone can protect the rim and you're this downhill slasher.
(21:22):
What are you going to do? And that piece for
Anthony Edwards, in my opinion, is going to be very
similar to what you're seeing from Luca. Ant has to
learn to add that kind of like in between change
of pace gear. He has to be able to put
defenders into jail, manipulate rim protectors, find a way to
get past Derek Jones in a ball screen, but then
(21:43):
methodically work downhill and generate some kind of opening where
you can pick a team apart in the ball screen. Again,
Dallas is guarding these ball screens three on two. They
are up at the level and they have somebody tagging
the roller. It's three on two. The openings are gonna
be through and dissecting the defense in a similar way
(22:05):
to what Luca is doing. That's the next step for him.
He's twenty two years old. He's got a lot of
time to figure it out. But he's this is not
the last team that he's gonna run into. That's gonna
have a seven footer that can jump underneath the rim,
and a good athlete on the perimeter that can load
up on him and enough speed around him to kind
of put three into a ball screen action. Right, So,
(22:27):
like that's gonna be the that's gonna be the next
step for it is figuring out how to solve this
particular type of problem overall for Minnesota. You know, every
year I cover the NBA, I learn more and uh again,
Like as as I said at the beginning of the show,
I don't care about being right. I care about getting
it right, and so much is about learning from what
(22:48):
the game is teaching us in these results. And I
had all of these concerns about Minnesota during the regular season,
like oh, do they have reels like the real ability
to space the floor and counter rim protection Anthony Edwards
and Karl Anthony Towns's decision makers. Look at the decision
making at the end of this game from Anthony Edwards
(23:09):
throwing the ball out of bounds, just like inability to
kind of solve what's happening in front of him. The
late game offense in general, this team was one of
the worst late game offenses in the league all year long,
and I think we myself got dissuaded by virtue of
Phoenix and Denver's inability to protect the rim into thinking
that their offense had like figured something out. But all
(23:31):
that is is like ant superpower is downhill athleticism, and
those teams just couldn't match up with that problem, whereas
Dallas has something that can counter that. Now it's kind
of exposing that issue. And so I mean, matchups determine
most of this stuff over the course of the NBA.
But like all you're seeing from Minnesota is the same
(23:51):
sort of issues they had all season. They've just been
brought to the forefront by virtue of a matchup that
can shine a flashlight on those things. But again, I
think Dallas is gonna go home. I think this series
is This could very easily be a sweep. I'll say
in five, just because I have too much respect for
Minnesota and what they've accomplished to this point. But I
think this series is over. I do not see a
(24:13):
move that Minnesota can make to flip the script. The
pieces are not there, the chess move is not there.
This is checkmate. There's nothing they can do. So the
Dallas fans, I think it's I think you a barring injury,
can start getting a little excited about the fact that
the NBA Finals is a very realistic goal for you here. Obviously,
(24:33):
we're going to cover the rest of the series as
though Minnesota does have a chance, just because that's the
nature of the profession, and we're gonna give We're gonna
go live after Game three and see if they can't
turn it around. But I don't see it. I just
don't see any sort of of easy fix there on
the table. All Right, guys, that is all I have
for tonight. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for
supporting the show. We will be back tomorrow morning with
(24:54):
a little bit of film session on this game, and
then we'll be covering Game three of the Eastern Conference Finals.
I will so you guys did the volume
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