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April 13, 2024 17 mins

Kelley Bydlon and Wes Reynolds take a look at The 2024 Masters after Friday's cut. The cut was 6 over par, which helped some notable players make it to the weekend. Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, and Bryson DeChambeau share the lead at -6. Scott Scheffler is the favorite to win the green jacket. Kelley and Wes take a look at the odds board and try to find betting value going into the weekend.

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Episode Transcript

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Visan's premiere golf betting podcasts.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome to long Shots after the cut for the Masters,
Kelly Bidlin, Wes Reynolds. Here Matt Brown at the Masters,
so we're gonna give him the night off. He's probably
had a couple of cocktails out there and Tougusta, Georgia having
a good time. Wes, how you do a buddy a
stressful a couple of days of golf watching.

Speaker 3 (00:28):
Uh, yeah, I'm doing. I'm doing okay today.

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Today could have been a little bit better for I
think all of us involved, but still okay in the placements.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
But yeah, I don't know whether today whether to say
today could have been better or it could have been worse, because.

Speaker 3 (00:44):
Both are the case.

Speaker 1 (00:45):
As we as we wrap up round two play here
we do see the cut line move all the way
back to six over par. You and I were just
talking a little bit before we started recording of how
it might have saved us on a couple guys just
squeaking in making the cut probably hit Decky Matzie up
the most notable considering I think you meet and Matt
Brown all have some type of bets on him, matchup,

(01:06):
finishing positions. I haven't outright now, I don't think that's
getting come, But yeah, a lot of those guys just
squeaking in two six over par. If you haven't been
watching the Masters, what have you been doing? You got
Max Holm of Scotty Scheffler, Brice and to Shamba all
at six under par through two rounds. Those are your
leaders tied atop the leaderboard Nikolai Hooyguard four under, Colin Moore, Kawa,

(01:28):
Cameron Davis, three under, Ludwig Obert two under par, and
then you got seven guys at one under of Note
today there were only eight golfers that shot under par
on their second round scores. That's how brutal the wind
was for most of the day. We was especially late
in the afternoon. Man, where do we even start this course?

(01:53):
This course seemed to eat everybody alive except for Scotti,
Scheffler and Max Hoba got off to a good start early.
But man, what were your were some of your biggest
takeaways from the day.

Speaker 3 (02:04):
Yeah, how difficult it was.

Speaker 2 (02:06):
It was a lot more difficult than I thought it
was going to be, because look, the weather cleared up.
Maybe not necessarily the wind, but the weather had certainly
cleared up. So look, just to watch this down the
stretch and you've got John rom and Rory McElroy and
all these guys patrick grinding to make the cut and
some that did not make the cut by the way,

(02:27):
Justin Thomas, Jordan sp Victor Hovelin Wyndham Clark, and Dustin Johnson. Meanwhile,
guys that did make the cut, Phil.

Speaker 3 (02:34):
Mickelson, VJ.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Singh, Jose Maria Ola Fovel makes the cut.

Speaker 3 (02:41):
Tiger Woods.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
Shipley, who wins Low Amateur with Lomprakta, did not make
the cut, So ship Neil Shipley, the Low Amateur will
play the weekend. So look, just just really tough conditions today, tough.
It played like a US Open, it really did.

Speaker 1 (02:59):
It felt that way. Man, I thought this was some
of the the toughest looking greens today I've seen at Augusta.
Like I I'm sure it's uh, you know, recency bias,
but man, West and it felt like an almost ever
like without uh with how how badly some of these
guys were missing putts was just incredible. I mean, the speed,

(03:19):
uh with with with with which these greens are playing
at with all the wind whipping around drying them out.
You got sand blowing around bunkers, causing like you know,
little little tornadoes out there blowing to these guys faces. Man,
it crazy conditions. Typically Captain Scottie Shaffler bricon to Shamba.
I I mean, I I think this was today was
a really really good example of what said Scotty Shuffler apart.

(03:43):
We we see him go uh, you know, we see
him go crazy on some of these easier courses and
easier tournaments. But then you look at it daylight today
where the conditions are so brutal, and you're seeing quality
golfer after quality golfer just plummet down leader board and
it just to grind out and even par seventy two.
You got you. I'll applaud anybody who did that today.

(04:04):
If Scotty, when everybody else seemed to be falling around him,
he was keeping up his level of play.

Speaker 3 (04:09):
Yeah, Scotty.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
Scheffler, by the way, number one in the field for
scrambling and also number two for strokes gaining around the green.
So the ball striking hasn't been poor for Scheffler. It
may be, you know, not at the top of the
board like we're used to, even though he's fifth in
strokes gaining ball striking, which is off the T plus approach,
of course, But yeah.

Speaker 3 (04:29):
He grinded it out. And that's the type of thing
you have to do to win a major.

Speaker 2 (04:32):
That was a major championship type of round today, because
that could have easily been a seventy four. Yeah, for
seventy five, and he gets a seventy two because he scrambles. Well,
he's right in the mix, and you know, right there
at favorite. Not quite odds on. I'm seeing him about
a dollar twenty dollars twenty five. But even though he's
not odds on, he's still much the man to beat
this weekend.

Speaker 1 (04:53):
Yeah, it definitely feels that way. Just of note, it
was just checking out weather forecast. Wind will be around
again tomorrow after noon. It won't be nearly as bad
though as what you just witnessed, at least as it
appears right now, I guess I should say that, But
it does look like it will be wins around ten
mile an hour is what you're gonna see later in
the afternoon, even even less than that in the morning.

(05:14):
So should be it should be a bit easier in
the morning tomorrow in round three. Yeah, I want to
hit on that on the odds board real quickly, you,
said Scotty Scheffler over at Draftings plus one twenty to
win this outright, Bryson Deshamba plus four fifty, Max Home
of five to one, Colin Morikawa fourteen to one, ludvig

(05:36):
Obert twenty to one, Hooyguard twenty two to one, Cam
Smith thirty to one, everybody else thirty five to one
or longer. I did make a bet on Max Homa
when this was man Scotty was probably still on the
front nine Home was oh my god, a couple holes left.
I did make a bet on him. I only got
plus six fifty, so not far off from where it

(05:57):
was at now. But honestly, West, I made that bet
just because the conditions were looking so brutal. I thought, man,
if Homa can get in the clubhouse here at six
under part, he might actually end up having a stroke
lead or a two stroke lead. Now I didn't end
up being the case again. Applaud to Shambo, applied to
Scheffler for sticking around, So that bet not looking as
great right now. Any interest for you overnight here in

(06:21):
round two and of adding any positions to the outright marketing.

Speaker 2 (06:24):
Boy and it history tells us that it's tough to
come down the board. And I'll give you a couple
of trends that support that. Since nineteen ninety six, only
one Masters winner has been outside the top eleven through
thirty six holes.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
That was Charles Schwartzel.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
He was twelve when he won several years ago when
he birdied the last four holes overcame a six shot deficit,
just like Tiger did in twenty oh five. And then
only three winners have been three plus shots back at halfway.
Adam Scott in twenty thirteen was three back, Danny Willett
was four back in twenty sixteen. Matsuyama was three back

(06:59):
in twenty twenty one. So when you're eyeballing this and
looking down and looking down the board, here a little
bit of course six under being our try leaders home
a Deshambeau and Scheffler top ten stops at one under par.
I believe that there are seven of those guys, including
one that I have Cameron Young at one under. So

(07:20):
like you know, maybe somebody like a Xander, because I
gotta tell you Xander, who started off like two over
I think through five holes on Thursday, played the rest
at two under par, which is hell of a score
based on these conditions. So maybe somebody like Xander can
pull a miracle and at least get closer. But boy,
it's hard for me to look. It's hard for me

(07:40):
to even look past the top seven, and that would
be lud big Obert, who is all by his lonesome
there in seventh at two under par. So yeah, yeah, yeah,
tough for me. Tough for me to add any of
out of those top seven.

Speaker 1 (07:53):
Yeah with the I mean, I'm not gonna I don't
want to put any disrespect on Bryson shit Max Homa,
because I do think they are, you know, at least
live in this. But man, Scottie Shuffler is that good
at this point right now in this season in his career?
Uh that it sure feels like between him and then
those other two at the top, I don't I don't

(08:14):
even know if we're gonna get further than that, but
who knows it does Again, it looks like this wind
will calm down a little bit tomorrow, so maybe you
can get with somebody on a you know put put it,
put together a couple of hot rounds here. But man,
I think I think that's what it's gonna require. So
many times we've seen in masters past, right, maybe that
one round can kind of get you into contention or
get you uh into that lead and take you to

(08:37):
the win. I don't know if anybody's gonna be able
to do that. That's not one of those three West though.
I I think it might require two pretty damn good
rounds here over the weekend if you're actually come steal.

Speaker 2 (08:46):
Nobody really went and caught these guys up up at
six under either nobody? You know, because you're kind of
waiting for one of these guys to make a move.
You you were waiting to see, Okay, is Can'tley gonna
make a move and then he ends up shooting forty
on them and taking himself out of it? Is who
leads by the way in strokes he ain't approach. That
just shows you what a Messi's been on the greens.
But anyway, you were waiting kind of for is Cameron

(09:09):
Young gonna make a move, and every time he would
make one, he would give one back. Is Cameron Smith
gonna make a move or some of these other guys,
and you just never really saw Matt Fitzpatrick, who ends
up at even par He was two under seemingly through
the whole day. It's like, if you could just make
one or two, he's like right there. But nobody really
was able to make a move. It was a lot

(09:30):
of the guys that ended up playing the morning session,
you know, like Nikolai Hoygard gets in with the seventy three,
but that's only two back.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
He's right in this thing, you know.

Speaker 2 (09:39):
Same with Cam Davis, who I think was one of
the first groups to finish in the morning. So, yeah,
there are some surprises, you know, to see these guys
so far down the board, to see Rory T thirty five,
John Ram T forty, Matziama making the cut on the number.
Tony fen Now really had a bad second nine, he's
T forty four walking Neeman up with a seventy eight

(10:00):
because I thought, man, he's in really good position after
round one. He finishes. T thirty five does make the weekend,
but a lot of names really struggled in the afternoon.

Speaker 1 (10:10):
Yeah, seventy seven for Zala Taurus. I know he's somebody
that we a lot of us had bets on Rory
right seventy seven for him. Yeah yeah, some real, really
tough scores want to bring up Tiger I mean this
is I caught this note from Justin Ray. How about
Tiger Woods has hit eleven or more fairways in each

(10:30):
of the first two rounds of the Masters only twice
as a pro nineteen ninety nine and twenty twenty four.

Speaker 2 (10:37):
You know, I gave him credit though, because he ends
up making the cut easy.

Speaker 3 (10:40):
He's t twenty two.

Speaker 2 (10:41):
Yes, like he's not gonna yeah, he's not gonna win,
but man, yeah he didn't end up having to sweat this,
and he was really good. I think around the green
man just showed a really really delicate touch. Now, the
whole thing with Tiger is can he physically take the
pounding through four rounds?

Speaker 3 (10:58):
He was able to do it for two.

Speaker 2 (11:00):
I think the weather being what it is is actually
because last year is kind of cold and rainy and damp,
and you know, he was feeling it towards the end there.
So that's absolutely amazing though that Tiger Woods easily makes
it hit some very good shots, I thought, especially around
the green. So isn't it something in the first round

(11:21):
of the Masters, Tiger's first masters here in nineteen ninety five.
Who is he paired with hose Maria Olthobo and they
both make the cut almost thirty years later.

Speaker 1 (11:29):
That's incredible. I'm glad you brought up the temperature too,
because that was the other weather note. It was supposed
to get a little bit warmer tomorrow, you know, which
probably not going to be seeing those sweaters and stuff
busted out that you did see this morning. Tigers odds
as of right now at DraftKings one hundred and eighty
to one to win the whole damn thing, plus one

(11:50):
twenty five for a top twenty. I'll be honest, Wes,
I was raising that top twenty marker to see what
he was because I want to have something on Tiger
to right, but I can't bet it at plus one
twenty five.

Speaker 2 (12:03):
Yeah, I was hoping. I was like maybe if that's
like one seventy five or.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
One, that's I was like, maybe if you give me
two to one, I will bite them so and have
some rooting interest on Tiger Woods.

Speaker 2 (12:12):
Is because because if he shoots one over combined for
the weekend, plus two is gonna be in the top twenty.

Speaker 3 (12:20):
I think pretty damn easily.

Speaker 1 (12:21):
Yeah, So that.

Speaker 2 (12:23):
Don't despair in terms of some of your placement markets
because some of these guys that you know are deep
back in the field. You always see it, Kelly, if
you of these guys, they're gonna shoot three four under
tomorrow and then you're gonna wonder why the leaders can't
do it.

Speaker 1 (12:36):
Yeah. Yeah, So in the West, that's the big one, right,
Like I think for the I think if you're talking
about one of these guys coming to me at least
coming back and coming and winning this thing from behind,
it's gonna take two great rounds. But for you, if
you've got top twenty, top ten bets that you're sweating,
you just need that one good round. You just see
that one good round from I mean, what from what
are we talking about? Guys that are plus four, plus five,

(12:57):
plus six. Yeah, even at the cutline, you if you
get a hot round in some of these better conditions,
I mean, you know, some of those bets are still live.
I wouldn't, like you said, I wouldn't be tearing up
some tickets on finishing.

Speaker 2 (13:09):
Positions like what it shack us if Rory shot like
a sixty eight tomorrow, No, No, no, absolutely not. So, yeah,
that's something you know, if you can't find anything that
you want to add, like on an InPlay from an outright,
there are still some top tens in top twenties at
DraftKings and some other shops that maybe you could still
get involved, because it's hard for me to add an

(13:31):
outright that's going to challenge these leaders.

Speaker 1 (13:33):
Yeah, I'm not interested in that at all. One I
did circle. I know he's a guy you have a
bet on already, and you brought him up earlier about
it is it is can't a live top twenty at
a plus at plus money on Patrick can't lay? I
think is a pretty good bet you're getting. You're talking
about the guy. He's leading the field and approach. He's
struggling on the greens. If he just if conditions calm down,

(13:55):
he can drain a few few more putts. I think
this guy's right right back in the thing. So I
think that that that's a pretty good bet if you
are looking to add something. That was one that just
jumped out to me immediately. Not a lot of other
markets posted right now West and I recorded this right
after the cut here was made, So make sure to
check vson dot Com. Tonight we'll add any of our
bets there that we'll have going into the borrow. I

(14:16):
don't know about us. I'm personally waiting to see what
third round matchups get plays. Yeah, exactly, wonders anybody wonders.
I know we've done a couple of these Friday podcasts,
but we don't do them every week. I usually never
add anything in the second round. I kind of want
to get to pass the cut have a couple of
days where I've seen action, especially especially in a major,
especially at the Masters, especially in weather like this. I

(14:39):
really didn't bet anything today except for that live Max
home outright. But tonight I'm definitely gonna be scoping out
the board and seeing if there's something third round that
I like as a matchup play.

Speaker 3 (14:49):
Yeah, sure thing, That's exactly what I'm going to be doing.

Speaker 2 (14:52):
And I know we'll be right in little pieces and
sending some of our thoughts to our CEO, Bill Ady,
will make it nice and pretty in a nice column
for you here late night on Friday night and into
Saturday morning.

Speaker 1 (15:04):
Yeah exactly. Yeah, I'm gonna probably write up something right now,
but yes, I will include bets over at Vison dot Com.
Hopefully there's a couple couple that stick out to me. Honestly,
when it comes to comes to these live finishing position markets,
I don't know how aggressive I'm gonna be there. Yes,
I have some guys that are kind of on the
outside looking in west, but like we just talked about,

(15:26):
they're I think a lot of these guys are really
still live at this point in the tournament, So I'm
not so I'm not like, I'm not gonna go adding
bets in those markets just to add. I think the
bet the round to round matchups are always good places
to look. But you know, live live top twenty, live
top tens. If I see a type of number like
that on can't Lay, I'll probably jump on that one.
But outside of that, I really don't know if there's

(15:47):
anything else I'll be adding.

Speaker 3 (15:48):
Yeah, it's tough.

Speaker 2 (15:49):
Would just wait and see and maybe these leaders come
back and we get it bunched up and then it's
anybody's game to win this thing. But uh, I do
think our world number one is in very position, not
that this is a lock because Bryson to Shamba, I thought,
has played really good golf, as did Max Holma, and
Max Holma was kind of really under the radar this

(16:10):
week and now very firmly on the radar heading to
the weekend.

Speaker 1 (16:14):
Yeah, yeah, I'm glad you brought that up. There's a
lot of those guys that I don't know about you,
but you know I personally rode off like you know,
like him, like Calmorecaw, guys that we just really haven't seen,
you know, put together great week after week play on
the PGA Tour this season so far. And give him credit,
you know, Max Omas share of the leader right now,
Calin Moore cow at three under par definitely not out

(16:36):
of this thing. Yeah, I've got to give tip of
the cap to those guys for kind of putting it
together here. Well again, go to Viston dot com tonight
you get all the write ups from myself, Wes, maybe
one for Matt Humans, maybe even one from Matt Brown
over a Vista dot com tonight. In any of our
plays that we'll be adding heading into the weekend, We'll

(16:57):
be there as well for Wes. I'm Kelly. Make sure
to check us out on Twitter X. You can tweet
away some questions. I know I've been tweeting, tweeting back
and forth with a lot of listeners today at Wes Reynolds,
one at Kelly Midlin on X give us follow, hit
us up. We will talk to you soon. Good luck
with all your bets at the Masters.
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