April 3, 2024 • 10 mins
Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds go around the world (all the way) to stateside Miami, Florida! That's where LIV Golf will be at Trump National Doral. Wes gives the course breakdown and stats that matter for the tournament. Also, best bets for LIV Golf Miami!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
This is long Shots. Here's Wes Reynolds. Hello and welcome
to long Shots here on the Vson Podcast Network Golf
Betting podcast, in which we are going to bring you
some live picks. Here it is around the World with
Wes Reynolds Kelly Bidlin joining as well. Wes, we are
not actually going around the world this week. We're just
(00:24):
heading over to the East Coast gonna get some tune
up for the Masters for some of these live guys
over there at a pretty difficult, pretty decent little course
over there in durou.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, it is the Blue Monster at Duau. Obviously, this
course was on the PGA Tour for many years as
the Duau Rider Open, and then they played the Cadillac Championship,
which is the WGC event, and now it is being
hosted at live The Blue Monster now known as Trump National.
Duau par seventy two, about seventy seven hundred yards from
(00:57):
the tips. It could play maybe it's probably gonna play
around seventy six, but seventy seven oh one was the
listed yardage here. So yeah, this course has been around
a long time. Fairly narrow fairways, it is super long.
As I mentioned, water really everywhere on this layout. You
can score here though, but you know, not exactly easy.
(01:18):
It depends on how difficult they want to make this
to give these guys a test before we have Augusta National.
So you know, looking at the odds board, same favorite
as it's been all four events so far in the
live season, that being John Rahm at six to one.
John ram is still seeking his first win on his
new tour, but he's got company near the top because
Joaquin Neeman is at seven to one right behind him.
(01:41):
He's actually won two of the first four events, one
for US at Maya Goba and then also one in
jet Over in Saudi Arabia. Bryson Deshambeau around ten to one,
Dustin Johnson around fourteen to one. He actually won the
Live Las Vegas event a few weeks ago, one back
on this course in Durrow in twenty fifteen. The other
four draw winner in this field Patrick Reid, who did
(02:02):
so the year before and twenty fourteen, but Patrick Reid's
about forty five to one. Cam Smith off that runner
up in Hong Kong is at fifteen to one. Brooks Koepka,
if you'll remember, won the event the week before the
Masters down in Orlando and what looked like kind of
a Muni course down there. But this draw is a
championship course, so should be at least a good test
(02:24):
for these guys.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, Wes, it's it's a course in which it looks
like link is going to be a pretty big factor
in this when we kind of look at some of
these previous winners, as you mentioned, you know, there's some
of these guys that are pretty long, you know, that
have had success here at this course. And so when
you were you know, as we always talk about with
the lip stuff, we don't have as much data as
we have from some of these other you know, other
(02:47):
these other tours whenever we're handicapping these deals. But did
you just go off of the players that you knew
that were a little bit longer, Like, how did you
whittle down the playing field here?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Yeah, that's what you have to do. They have like
a stat site on their website. This is not exactly
the most advanced website, by the way, for all the
money that is involved in this tour, it is a
fairly basic website. It looks like it was done like
on the CompuServe server in the early days of the Internet.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
But well that merger is coming West, Okay, the whole
mergers coming. Okay, why build a website when you're gonna merge? Okay?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Yeah, so maybe we'll get shot link for both tours.
That'd be a novel concept. But yeah, all you have
is like your basic data driving distance, greens and regulations,
so you don't have any advanced strokes gained or any
type of that data. So I went pretty basic, and look,
it's a long course. So who am I gonna take.
I'm gonna take the longest hitter, and that's Bryson. De'shamba
(03:45):
who ten to one is kind of the average. Maybe
he'll be a little bit higher when more of the
market's populated, but he leads live in driving distance, so
you know, it's not just been distance where he's actually
been good. He's fifth and greens in regulation almost seventy
five percent. And Bryson's played solid, you know, to start
the season. I believe he's got top tens in his
(04:06):
last three live events, so he actually has been playing solid.
He's in the mix in Las Vegas, just kind of
fell off in the final round when he was in
the final group with DJ so Bryson Deshambo certainly made
sense at ten to one, and I also went with
a Nuther guy who not exactly a long hit, but
a pretty accurate hitter and makes a lot of birdies.
Very good putter, very good scrambler. Top ten in all
(04:28):
those categories, by the way, on Live is Taylor Gooch
at eighteen to one. He's not in the Masters field
next week, unlike Bryson who is. And you know, Taylor
Gooch is known to run his mouth a little bit
about how the Masters should have an asterix because all
the best players are not there because he and I
guess Dean Burmester and a few others aren't there, so
the Masters, I guess doesn't mean anything. But nevertheless, look,
(04:50):
he's the type of guy though that gets motivated in
events like this, and he's won a few times out there,
and he is a good player, you know, maybe not
the smartest with some of the things he says and
puts out there in the press, but he can play
a little bit. So Taylor Gooch eighteen to one. And
then and then I went, because I only go with
three in this forty eight to fifty four player field event.
(05:12):
Paul Casey thirty to one who was runner up in
Hong Kong three weeks ago and then finished sixth in
Singapore where he was on my card. He actually had
a share of the lead at one point in that
final round. He is number one in greens and regulation
about seventy seven percent, fourth and fairways hit about sixty
four and a half percent. So he's still a really
good ball striker. He's still excellent with that. Now he'll
(05:34):
make some mistakes and sometimes the putting will make Paul
Casey par Casey, and that's not what you can be
if you're trying to win here. But I think he's
in pretty darn good for him right now.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Yeah, Wes like listen. Of course, everybody's familiar with like
you said, we've seen it for so many years on
the PGA Tour. I know we're going to talk about it.
I'm sure the subject will come up when we do
our PGA Tour podcast. How many how many of these
guys are you expecting to I don't know, throttle back
a little bit a week before the Masters. Is that
something you're concerned about at all for the guys that
rid it, or with this being live, you think there's
(06:06):
a little bit more of a push to hey, if
you're playing in this event, you better show up at play.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Well. The one thing about it is they have had
some time off. They haven't played for three weeks, so
you know, it's not like, okay, you've played four weeks
in a row and you're kind of grinding out here
and then you know, maybe getting a little war down.
So these guys all should be rested, you know, just eyeballing.
The guys that are going to be in the field
next week, Ram Nieman, Deshambeau, Cam Smith, Terrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Brooks,
(06:34):
Koepka in the field next week, Adrian moronk in the
field next week, Sergio Garcia, obviously all the former Masters winners, Garcia,
Bubba Watson, Patrick Reid. So most of the guys aren't
in the field though next week. So so this is
still going to be important. Of these guys, I think to,
you know, just get a win. Schwartzel another guy former
champion as well as Phil of course. So yeah, most
(06:57):
of these guys are not in the field next week,
so I'll be interest to see which Masters participants really
take it seriously. Remember, like I was saying, Brooks won
in Orlando the week before and then he ended up
finishing runner up. He actually led most of the Masters
last year. But the one thing about Masters prices too,
because I think maybe the odds makers learned their lesson.
You're not gonna get the huge drift on the LIV
(07:19):
guys that you did last year because so many of
them played well. Even Patrick Reid, who really hasn't been
in contention anytime in the last eighteen months to get
a victory, played well. Kepkat played well. Phil Mickelson shot
sixty five on Sunday and ended up finishing T. Two.
So yeah, these guys have have played well. Like Nieman
his he's drifted down. He wasn't even in the field.
(07:40):
He had to get a special indentation. And I think
maybe what he said after Maya Coble, He's like, yeah,
I'm not in any of the Majors, And look, he
absolutely should be because he's gone first, thirtieth, third, first,
and fourth in his five events he's played this year,
and that third I believe is over at Dubai and
the Dubai Desert Classics. So yeah, the top guys are
(08:01):
gonna be the ones that are gonna be in that
Masters field, but I don't think there's any lack of
motivation for any of these guys.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yeah, Matt, I think that's an interesting point by West.
If you are looking forward to the Master, the Master's odds,
I mean, like this is I just said it right West,
They're not gonna be caught by surprised this year. That's
not gonna happen. I would even argue, I think some
of these numbers have gotten way too short. Like I
love Nieman, love I loved him on PGA Tour. I
was a little worried about guys like him, and specifically him,
(08:29):
going to live because you just didn't know if that
if you were gonna be competitive, but with the competitive
nature of the PGA Tour drive you would you get
the same feel on live. I was always unsure that
now he's had a couple of good performances all the
way down to twenty five to one to win the Masters,
to me, that's gotten way too short on it. It
was short on a guy like Neiman who we haven't
seen play in these full PGA Tour events.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yeah, exactly, And you look at you know, I bet
him after he won that second event here in town,
A couple places. He was at fifty to one and
obviously he's nowhere near that right now. And then some
of these guys, I understand why they're the prices they are,
but if you look at like Dustin Johnson, he's not
he's so erratic a little bit with this form and
to see him actually has now been put back up
(09:12):
at thirty five to one. But I understand Brooks be
you know, maybe Brooks should be in the twenties, but
he's like eighteen to one. But it's Brooks in a
major and he does have a major championship currently on
his trophy case from last year at the PGA, So
you couldn't really get too generous on Brooks here. But yeah,
some of these guys that really haven't been I guess
(09:33):
in the most consistent form like a Deshambo or like
a Dustin Johnson, you wonder if they are a little
bit too short. But they don't want to give these
generous numbers for these guys. Cameron Smith, another guy twenty
eight to one. It's not like he's in because when
I compare him to like the guys that are twenty
eight to one, like Can't Lay and Thomas, it's like
I think those guys have played a little bit better
(09:55):
and maybe more consistent. But Cam Smith, we know, has
a really good rec here at Agusta guys.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
One of the other things also with all Florida courses,
whether it can also be a factor. Just doing some
quick little googling here now we are recording this on Tuesday.
Doesn't look like it's going to be all that bad there,
So I think we're going to get a pretty straightforward
fifty four holes if you remember, fifty four holes as
opposed to seventy two holes for this tournament. And of
course you can get all the right up over atvson
(10:22):
dot com and a little sneak peek here, we are
going to be releasing our early, very early Masters betting
primer that will be over on vson dot com as well,
so be sure and check that out this week as well.
For Wes. For Kelly, I'm Att. Good luck on all
your live Miami bets.
This is long Shots. Here's Wes Reynolds. Hello and welcome
to long Shots here on the Vson Podcast Network Golf
Betting podcast, in which we are going to bring you
some live picks. Here it is around the World with
Wes Reynolds Kelly Bidlin joining as well. Wes, we are
not actually going around the world this week. We're just
(00:24):
heading over to the East Coast gonna get some tune
up for the Masters for some of these live guys
over there at a pretty difficult, pretty decent little course
over there in durou.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Yeah, it is the Blue Monster at Duau. Obviously, this
course was on the PGA Tour for many years as
the Duau Rider Open, and then they played the Cadillac Championship,
which is the WGC event, and now it is being
hosted at live The Blue Monster now known as Trump National.
Duau par seventy two, about seventy seven hundred yards from
(00:57):
the tips. It could play maybe it's probably gonna play
around seventy six, but seventy seven oh one was the
listed yardage here. So yeah, this course has been around
a long time. Fairly narrow fairways, it is super long.
As I mentioned, water really everywhere on this layout. You
can score here though, but you know, not exactly easy.
(01:18):
It depends on how difficult they want to make this
to give these guys a test before we have Augusta National.
So you know, looking at the odds board, same favorite
as it's been all four events so far in the
live season, that being John Rahm at six to one.
John ram is still seeking his first win on his
new tour, but he's got company near the top because
Joaquin Neeman is at seven to one right behind him.
(01:41):
He's actually won two of the first four events, one
for US at Maya Goba and then also one in
jet Over in Saudi Arabia. Bryson Deshambeau around ten to one,
Dustin Johnson around fourteen to one. He actually won the
Live Las Vegas event a few weeks ago, one back
on this course in Durrow in twenty fifteen. The other
four draw winner in this field Patrick Reid, who did
(02:02):
so the year before and twenty fourteen, but Patrick Reid's
about forty five to one. Cam Smith off that runner
up in Hong Kong is at fifteen to one. Brooks Koepka,
if you'll remember, won the event the week before the
Masters down in Orlando and what looked like kind of
a Muni course down there. But this draw is a
championship course, so should be at least a good test
(02:24):
for these guys.
Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yeah, Wes, it's it's a course in which it looks
like link is going to be a pretty big factor
in this when we kind of look at some of
these previous winners, as you mentioned, you know, there's some
of these guys that are pretty long, you know, that
have had success here at this course. And so when
you were you know, as we always talk about with
the lip stuff, we don't have as much data as
we have from some of these other you know, other
(02:47):
these other tours whenever we're handicapping these deals. But did
you just go off of the players that you knew
that were a little bit longer, Like, how did you
whittle down the playing field here?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Yeah, that's what you have to do. They have like
a stat site on their website. This is not exactly
the most advanced website, by the way, for all the
money that is involved in this tour, it is a
fairly basic website. It looks like it was done like
on the CompuServe server in the early days of the Internet.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
But well that merger is coming West, Okay, the whole
mergers coming. Okay, why build a website when you're gonna merge? Okay?
Speaker 2 (03:23):
Yeah, so maybe we'll get shot link for both tours.
That'd be a novel concept. But yeah, all you have
is like your basic data driving distance, greens and regulations,
so you don't have any advanced strokes gained or any
type of that data. So I went pretty basic, and look,
it's a long course. So who am I gonna take.
I'm gonna take the longest hitter, and that's Bryson. De'shamba
(03:45):
who ten to one is kind of the average. Maybe
he'll be a little bit higher when more of the
market's populated, but he leads live in driving distance, so
you know, it's not just been distance where he's actually
been good. He's fifth and greens in regulation almost seventy
five percent. And Bryson's played solid, you know, to start
the season. I believe he's got top tens in his
(04:06):
last three live events, so he actually has been playing solid.
He's in the mix in Las Vegas, just kind of
fell off in the final round when he was in
the final group with DJ so Bryson Deshambo certainly made
sense at ten to one, and I also went with
a Nuther guy who not exactly a long hit, but
a pretty accurate hitter and makes a lot of birdies.
Very good putter, very good scrambler. Top ten in all
(04:28):
those categories, by the way, on Live is Taylor Gooch
at eighteen to one. He's not in the Masters field
next week, unlike Bryson who is. And you know, Taylor
Gooch is known to run his mouth a little bit
about how the Masters should have an asterix because all
the best players are not there because he and I
guess Dean Burmester and a few others aren't there, so
the Masters, I guess doesn't mean anything. But nevertheless, look,
(04:50):
he's the type of guy though that gets motivated in
events like this, and he's won a few times out there,
and he is a good player, you know, maybe not
the smartest with some of the things he says and
puts out there in the press, but he can play
a little bit. So Taylor Gooch eighteen to one. And
then and then I went, because I only go with
three in this forty eight to fifty four player field event.
(05:12):
Paul Casey thirty to one who was runner up in
Hong Kong three weeks ago and then finished sixth in
Singapore where he was on my card. He actually had
a share of the lead at one point in that
final round. He is number one in greens and regulation
about seventy seven percent, fourth and fairways hit about sixty
four and a half percent. So he's still a really
good ball striker. He's still excellent with that. Now he'll
(05:34):
make some mistakes and sometimes the putting will make Paul
Casey par Casey, and that's not what you can be
if you're trying to win here. But I think he's
in pretty darn good for him right now.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Yeah, Wes like listen. Of course, everybody's familiar with like
you said, we've seen it for so many years on
the PGA Tour. I know we're going to talk about it.
I'm sure the subject will come up when we do
our PGA Tour podcast. How many how many of these
guys are you expecting to I don't know, throttle back
a little bit a week before the Masters. Is that
something you're concerned about at all for the guys that
rid it, or with this being live, you think there's
(06:06):
a little bit more of a push to hey, if
you're playing in this event, you better show up at play.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Well. The one thing about it is they have had
some time off. They haven't played for three weeks, so
you know, it's not like, okay, you've played four weeks
in a row and you're kind of grinding out here
and then you know, maybe getting a little war down.
So these guys all should be rested, you know, just eyeballing.
The guys that are going to be in the field
next week, Ram Nieman, Deshambeau, Cam Smith, Terrell Hatton, Dustin Johnson, Brooks,
(06:34):
Koepka in the field next week, Adrian moronk in the
field next week, Sergio Garcia, obviously all the former Masters winners, Garcia,
Bubba Watson, Patrick Reid. So most of the guys aren't
in the field though next week. So so this is
still going to be important. Of these guys, I think to,
you know, just get a win. Schwartzel another guy former
champion as well as Phil of course. So yeah, most
(06:57):
of these guys are not in the field next week,
so I'll be interest to see which Masters participants really
take it seriously. Remember, like I was saying, Brooks won
in Orlando the week before and then he ended up
finishing runner up. He actually led most of the Masters
last year. But the one thing about Masters prices too,
because I think maybe the odds makers learned their lesson.
You're not gonna get the huge drift on the LIV
(07:19):
guys that you did last year because so many of
them played well. Even Patrick Reid, who really hasn't been
in contention anytime in the last eighteen months to get
a victory, played well. Kepkat played well. Phil Mickelson shot
sixty five on Sunday and ended up finishing T. Two.
So yeah, these guys have have played well. Like Nieman
his he's drifted down. He wasn't even in the field.
(07:40):
He had to get a special indentation. And I think
maybe what he said after Maya Coble, He's like, yeah,
I'm not in any of the Majors, And look, he
absolutely should be because he's gone first, thirtieth, third, first,
and fourth in his five events he's played this year,
and that third I believe is over at Dubai and
the Dubai Desert Classics. So yeah, the top guys are
(08:01):
gonna be the ones that are gonna be in that
Masters field, but I don't think there's any lack of
motivation for any of these guys.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
Yeah, Matt, I think that's an interesting point by West.
If you are looking forward to the Master, the Master's odds,
I mean, like this is I just said it right West,
They're not gonna be caught by surprised this year. That's
not gonna happen. I would even argue, I think some
of these numbers have gotten way too short. Like I
love Nieman, love I loved him on PGA Tour. I
was a little worried about guys like him, and specifically him,
(08:29):
going to live because you just didn't know if that
if you were gonna be competitive, but with the competitive
nature of the PGA Tour drive you would you get
the same feel on live. I was always unsure that
now he's had a couple of good performances all the
way down to twenty five to one to win the Masters,
to me, that's gotten way too short on it. It
was short on a guy like Neiman who we haven't
seen play in these full PGA Tour events.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Yeah, exactly, And you look at you know, I bet
him after he won that second event here in town,
A couple places. He was at fifty to one and
obviously he's nowhere near that right now. And then some
of these guys, I understand why they're the prices they are,
but if you look at like Dustin Johnson, he's not
he's so erratic a little bit with this form and
to see him actually has now been put back up
(09:12):
at thirty five to one. But I understand Brooks be
you know, maybe Brooks should be in the twenties, but
he's like eighteen to one. But it's Brooks in a
major and he does have a major championship currently on
his trophy case from last year at the PGA, So
you couldn't really get too generous on Brooks here. But yeah,
some of these guys that really haven't been I guess
(09:33):
in the most consistent form like a Deshambo or like
a Dustin Johnson, you wonder if they are a little
bit too short. But they don't want to give these
generous numbers for these guys. Cameron Smith, another guy twenty
eight to one. It's not like he's in because when
I compare him to like the guys that are twenty
eight to one, like Can't Lay and Thomas, it's like
I think those guys have played a little bit better
(09:55):
and maybe more consistent. But Cam Smith, we know, has
a really good rec here at Agusta guys.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
One of the other things also with all Florida courses,
whether it can also be a factor. Just doing some
quick little googling here now we are recording this on Tuesday.
Doesn't look like it's going to be all that bad there,
So I think we're going to get a pretty straightforward
fifty four holes if you remember, fifty four holes as
opposed to seventy two holes for this tournament. And of
course you can get all the right up over atvson
(10:22):
dot com and a little sneak peek here, we are
going to be releasing our early, very early Masters betting
primer that will be over on vson dot com as well,
so be sure and check that out this week as well.
For Wes. For Kelly, I'm Att. Good luck on all
your live Miami bets.
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