April 10, 2024 • 21 mins
Kelley Bydlon and Wes Reynolds make their final points before The 2024 Masters get underway Thursday. There is a lot of rain in the forecast. How might that affect your handicapping? Any takeaways from the latest odds movement? Also a final check at our best bets for The 88th Masters.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Visan's premiere golf betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Welcome in. It's long Shots. Kelly Bidlin, west Reynolds Here.
Matt Brown not with us today on Wednesday afternoon as
we record this. You know why because he's on his
way to Augusta, Georgia. Doesn't that sound nice? West Reynolds.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
Yes, I'm watching the par three actually as we record.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
So you know, all the families.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
It's always kind of a fun event because you got
all the families out there and the little kids dressed
up as caddies.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
So currently watching that as we speak.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Yeah, I don't really understand why there's really like a
competitive need to it. To be honest, like you usually
I'm that guy that it's like, okay, if we're putting
a sporting event on TV, like I want a winner
and a loser. The part three contest I don't really
care about though.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Yeah, I don't really either, other than the fact that
nobody that's ever won the par three has went on
to win the tournam Man.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Right, is Ricky Fowler still on top of the leaderboard.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
I am not positive because I I just I just
tuned back in briefly here. But yeah, you know, seeing
these guys they'll play with each other that that are
still friendly, Like I think John Rahm, SA and Tony
fen Now are in a group together right now.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Okay, all right, who was it? Who was it? Who
did the was it last year? A couple of years ago?
It's probably like six years ago at this point. I
can't even remember who was it that like skipped the
ball across the water?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
It was John Rahm?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It was Okay, it was like the past couple of years, right, yeah, crazy, yeah, yeah, yeah,
a lot of guys are trying that shot now. Not
in competition though, Yeah, it's just the Part three contests,
all right.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Moving on from that to the real Masters that does
begin tomorrow. Quick little pod for you guys if you
did not see, we did have a I don't want
to say live an in studio show that we recorded.
It ran back last night. That is up on the
Vson YouTube page. I did tweet it out earlier today
at Kelly Bidlin, so you can go find that and
see the whole nice, fine, beautiful looking television product that
(02:10):
the crew put together. I was gonna say Matt, Wes
and myself, but that's not us at all. That was
why Tom check and find people we have working behind
the scenes at Vson. So go check that out there will.
If you found this episode, you've probably seen the couple
others that are also in the long Shots feed. We're
gonna be keep cranking these out for you guys during
the Masters. We'll be doing one today, Wes and I
(02:31):
will be back for an after the Cut pod as well,
so we'll talk about kind of where everything sits then.
And I guess that what leads nicely right into that
Wes is we don't really know exactly when that after
the Cut pod might be because of the weather that
we are seeing in August to Georgia. I wanted to
a couple of things we wanted to do on this podcast.
(02:51):
Wanted to make sure we reviewed all of our bets
for you guys as we are kind of finalized and
hear things you know about about what eighteen hours until
we tea off. I wanted kind of address a lot
of the questions that we've been getting and then also
talk about some of these golfers that have started to
slide down the odds board a bit whether though Wes
has been I feel like the number one thing that
(03:12):
I've heard talked about. I've heard a lot of people
ask me about. I've heard a lot of people, I think,
make statements on where there's an advantage and where there's
not an advantage that I don't necessarily agree with. I
think this is I try to say this almost every
week when when we're talking about when we're doing this
podcast and it's I bet a lot of first round
(03:33):
leader stuff. Weather is going to be so impactful with
a small with a small short term bet like that
that I usually wait as long as humanly possible, and
I have not put in a single first round leader
bet yet. For the Masters, I will be making at
least one that we'll get into here in a sec.
(03:54):
But the I'll be Frank. I'll be Frank Wes. The
only reason I'm even I'm even going to be putting
in one or two first round leader bets is because
of the long running trend that we know from the
Masters that you've got to be right near kind of
that top of the leaderboard and maybe you have the
note in front of you. I'll have to pull it
up if not of just you know, you got to
be really close to the lead here if you're gonna
(04:16):
go on and win this thing. So I think any
of those guys that you really do have outright tickets
on that you believe are gonna win this thing. That's
kind of the reason why I will be at least
a deck you'll be playing a first round leader on.
You need those guys to be right there. But just
real quick weather forecast. It is looking. It's a little
bit different from what we talked about last night. It
does look like the afternoon is clearing up a little bit,
(04:39):
but morning's still an absolute nightmare. A ton of rain.
You're seeing high nineties. I mean, this is ninety nine
percent rain, one hundred percent rain at six am tomorrow.
You're talking about wins fifteen fifteen to twenty mile an
hour range. That will be heavy betting wise for you.
What's your biggest takeaway from what you're seeing with the
(05:00):
yeah look.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
And and and I think if it's obviously the early wave,
the the order by the way of the tea times
does not change. So it's not like, Okay, the morning
got washed out, so we're gonna send out the afternoon guys.
So they're gonna send out the morning guys in the afternoon.
Now they get to play the course immediately with what
we would think would be softer conditions, and then the
days as the temperature obviously can creep up, then it
(05:25):
dries out a little bit more. So I wonder if
this is going to favor even the morning guys, even
though their session is getting washed out a little bit.
That number one, they get done first, and then obviously
the guys if they even get out in the afternoon
on Thursday, the second half wave, if they're gonna you know,
(05:47):
they're gonna have to play a lot more golf because
the morning guys are obviously gonna get done first, so
they're not gonna be on the bad end of the
draw in terms of having to play the more holes.
And you know, like we saw last here now John
Rahm overcame that and ended up winning the tournament because
John Ram was on the bad side where you had
to play like all of those holes on Saturday to
(06:08):
try to get this done on Sunday, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
And that so I just wanted to talk through that.
I don't know, I don't really know that there is
I'm going to be making some first round leader bets.
But that is really because of the historical trend with
where you need to be at kind of after the
first round to win the Masters. But this is I
agree with you from what we're seeing with the forecast
(06:30):
right now. And we had Kevin Roth on a numbers
game this morning, meteorologist from roto Grinders. Love talking sports, sports,
weather and betting with him and how it impacts stuff
he thought. He said he'd be shocked at this point
if start times were not delayed. And basically everything that
you just laid out west is what occurs right the way.
Ye the morning groups get pushed back and basically they
(06:53):
get to play, you know, on some softer conditions, and
with the later groups there's some that might start and
then they might not be able to finish, you know,
due to darkness and got to pick it up again
on Friday before they start their second round. I think
that's probably, as of right now, the most likely thing
to occur. I'm just I'm here to caution everybody of
(07:15):
if you are, you gotta be damn sure that you
know what's going on with this father if you're making
bets based off of it, I know it's something we
always talk about as handicappers, but it's not a just
because you know when rain, like you just said with
John rob just because you know what you know or
you think you know when rain's going to occur, doesn't
mean that you've got a lockdown winning bet, you know,
(07:38):
if you're betting around.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
There are thirty total groups by the way, one group
of two and then the rest are group of three.
So even if you look like, you know, just going
one through fifteen, which would be considered the morning flight,
you know you have like Wyndham Clark, Victor Hoblin, Cam Smith,
they're in the last group in the morning session, then Scheffler,
McElroy's before Rom Fitzpatrick, Dunlapp before Matt Siamasalatorus, Thomas before.
(08:05):
So I'm looking at some of the bigger names. Can't
Ley is in one in one of the early groups.
Niemen is one in one of the early groups female,
So of kind of some of the guys that we
think are gonna be contenders, they're early, but they're not
like the first off the tee or anything. So they're
still in the back end toward the middle. Because Augusta
likes to have a featured group there at the end. Like,
(08:26):
for instance, the last group to finish, assuming it would
be on time tomorrow, would be Dustin Johnson, Moricawa and
Tommy Fleetwood. So they always like to have name guys
in those final groups. So not maybe as huge of
an advantage, but still you'd probably rather be out in
the morning to at least get some soft conditions on Thursday,
depending on how much play we get in.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Yeah, and I think, you know, if I was if
I was looking, you know, if I had to pick
groups or tea times, and I was gonna target because
because of what I think is gonna happen to the weather,
might not be those first groups West. I did get
a tweet about this. I think it was a good point.
It was Paul Nelson that tweeted me. It's the it's
maybe those groups a few in right, because you don't
what I don't necessarily want the guys that might might
(09:09):
get out there right have to play through some terrible
conditions and the horn gets blown and you know, golfers
come off the course. You know, if that happens, you
don't really want those first group guys. Sure, if we
know there's gonna be a delay in start times, then
those guys make more sense to target. That's all of
this just is to say, keep your eye on the
weather and make sure if you're making bets based on that,
(09:30):
you know pretty sure, pretty you know pretty well what's
going to happen. And just because we're talking about bets
and stuff now doesn't mean you can't wait until very
early tomorrow morning to get this stuff in when you
do know what's gonna happen with those start times. Okay,
transition away from that. Wanted to mention a couple guys
(09:51):
that have drifted a bit in the betting odds and
just see if there is any more interest from us
and betting. Some of these guys Brown not with us today.
I know he did make a bet on Sam Byrns
though he has an affinity towards Sam Burns, he is
one of his favorite golfers. But he did text me
he said, all right, if someone's gonna give me eighty
to one on Sam Burns, I'm getting I'm getting in
(10:12):
on this guy. There's a few of these guys that
have drifted. I think there's some of the guys that
we talked about on shows already, but Sam Burns, Victor Howlin,
Patrick can't lay. All these guys drifted. I'm seeing Wyndham
Clark right now, even him at forty to one over
at draftings. Wyndam Clark, a guy that I have an
outright bet on Matt West. Was you that had one
(10:33):
or was it Matt that had window?
Speaker 2 (10:34):
I can't remember. I believe Matt does. I do not
have window.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
I feel like all three of us like crossed over
at each other's cards a little bit this masters, but
not all the way. So I do have a bet
on Window, but he's drifted a bit. Any any of
those guys are any outrights that you feel like you're
gonna add here between now and start a tournament.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
I am very tempted at fifty to one on Patrick
can't lay. I may resist temptation, though, but look, I
just think that that's a huge number. And I don't
think that he's like as off as like Victor Hoblin is,
because Victor Hovelin, I think, is on like his third
swing coach in three months, you know, and has had
the sports psychologists out there. Uh So, yeah, Victor Hoblin,
(11:14):
who I I could have sworn maybe several months ago,
I would have bet here easily and and been very
heavy on him.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
I'm gonna take a pass this week. But it's kind of.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Interesting, Kelly, because you have some of these players that
are getting faded, like in the UH in the outright market,
or or but but maybe not in the matchup market.
Or you have players that are getting faded in the
matchup market but not the outright market. A couple examples
of the ladder. Brooks Kepka is getting bet against pretty
heavy in some of the matchup markets that I see
against Monts Yama, against Jordan Spief. But yet you're not
(11:45):
seeing him drift in the futures market because he's got
a lot of action on him, because it's Brooks in
a major right right, and you're already being that discount.
So yeah, it's kind of curious that you're seeing him
get faded in the matchup market. A couple of other guys,
Will z aut Torus is getting faded. I've a lot
of love for Wills. Alatoris at least on you outright
and some of the placement markets. But yeah, even getting
(12:06):
faded against Hovlin, even getting faded against can't Ley, So yeah,
that was a little bit curious to me. And then
there's a couple of the players with the injury issues
Jordan Speef, Minwu Lee Minwu is certainly drifted up a
little bit too, about one hundred and fifty to one
in terms of an outright. But yeah, just eyeballing this
and looking at some of the players getting played against
(12:28):
in matchups, Max Homas getting played against a little bit,
So you know, you don't want to read too much
into that, but I do often find that it's curious
when a future price doesn't drift because there's a lot
more I think, I would say casual or public betters
that are going to bet the Masters, because it's a
masters that might not bet golf from a week to
week basis. So when you're seeing the little bit of
(12:49):
moves in the matchups but not in the outright, that
at least gives me pause on some of those guys
on the outrights, like a Brooks or somebody.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Like that, would I would say though, that that's probably
a bet. What movement that you're seeing in the matchups
is probably a better indicator of where where the actual
respected money's coming in. Then whatever movement you're seeing in
the outrights right, because of what you just talked about
the public, the average recreational better is gonna come in
and bet in the outright market far more than they're
gonna look anywhere else.
Speaker 4 (13:18):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
That is interesting. All right, We're gonna keep moving around,
but bouncing around here. Tiger Woods, I want to hit
on him real quick one more time. Here's my opinion
on Tiger. I do not think he's gonna have a
great week. I am not betting ever against Tiger Woods
at the Masters to miss the cut. It's not something
I'm interesting, right. I think that if you are in
the camp of I don't believe in Tiger's health that
(13:41):
he can make it in this tournament. I still suggest
betting against him in a tournament matchup. Give that give
that handicap a four fold, a full four rounds to
play out, instead of limiting yourself to a miscut bet
where you only got two days. Uh, where you're kind
of hoping, you know, some aches and pains can jump
with him. Wes. I don't think you bet anything with
(14:03):
Tiger but agree or disagree with that.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
No, I would totally agree with that assessment. And look,
you're seeing it a little bit. I know he's matched
up with Woodland at DraftKings, in a couple other places,
at a lot of shops. He's matched up against Phil,
and Tiger actually got the early action, and then he
did the press conference on Monday is like, yeah, I
heard everywhere, you know, So then all of a sudden
you started to see people come in on Phil Mickelson.
(14:28):
One of our guests on Vson goes by Indy Jeff.
Jeff Sealey was on with Matt Ewmans and I on
Vson a night on Monday night, just you know, a
quick calling segment, and he goes, yeah, I'm with Phil,
because Phil at least has been playing semi competitive golf.
He's not been playing great and he's not been contending
on a week to week basis, but competitive golf, whether
(14:48):
it's fifty four or seventy two holes, is better than nothing,
which is what essentially Tiger has basically been playing for
the last two or three years. So that's why you've
seen that.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
Phil.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I think that's move probably about thirty cent. Just eyeball
on the screen here, Yeah, it has.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
I don't know about you, but if you have the options,
I would I would much rather play Gary Woodland over
the Pickleson.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
But that's Sar Whitler, who, by the way, I had
a hole in one today in the Part three contest.
And you know, Gary obviously a great story with you know,
have an allsion removed from his brain. So yeah, and look,
Gary can bomb it. Gary can still hit it really
really long. I think distance does matter here.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Yeah, great story. Who is that Jeff Darlington? I think
did that on ESPN that that was a great piece
they produced. Typically cap to those guys. All right, well,
I know you've got to run here in a bit.
I don't want to go over our full cards. Everybody
can get those at Visa dot com for me and Wes.
Anything that you added though since yet yesterday when.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
We did the live show that you want to mention,
I did add a couple Top twenties. I basically played
all my futures in either top twenties or top thirties.
Xander played in a Top ten along with Rory, but
a couple of Top twenties I had it. I did
add Patrick Reid at two to one, and look, I
would even lean with him.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
And I'm debating if I want to.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
Add low live even though I already have Nieman in
pocket at maybe twelve to one, because I think Patrick
Reid is kind of going to be a little.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Surprise this week that maybe we don't expect.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
You've been bullish on it, and look, the form line
doesn't tell you he's going to play great, but you
know that's the case.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
I think.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
I think he plays solid here. Benny on I actually
added in the top twenty and you can get him
in the mid three dollars. I think even still for
that doesn't have a ton of success here, but man,
he hits it long off the tee and the fact
that he got in the Masters.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
He's in the top fifty in the world golf ranking.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
So it's like, Okay, I want to make a return
appearance because that's going to matter for some of these
guys unless they're otherwise qualified. You know, they want a major,
they want a PGA Tour event. I think if you
finish top twelve and ties, you get a return appearance.
So come Sunday, that's going to be something to look
for if you're maybe betting some live you know, like
a placement market live at some of these markets at
(17:03):
DraftKings or other stores, because that's gonna really matter for
some of these guys that are you know.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
You know, obviously for somebody like Rory, it's not gonna matter.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
He's gonna be exempt every year to be at Augusta
and get invited every year. But somebody like Benny On
it'll matter.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Yea, Yeah, I think that's that's a great tip for
some live Betty to look out for anything else that.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Yeah, I did, that is all I played.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
I'm gonna do some of the matchups here early on
Wednesday evening and you know, see if I find anything,
or see if I find any like three balls or something,
they'll have that up at visa dot Com slash picks
maybe some round one three balls or something like that,
but probably going to be smaller on the exposure just
because of the fact of the weather that we have
on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, a couple. So I think I brought this up
on the show. See who Kim though Top twenty did
add that for my card.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
Do Like, I'm kind of digging that a little bit
as more as I look into it too. I haven't
done it yet, but you know, see what was a
guy that's been like he like missed.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Her Top twenty here. Yeah, yeah, yeah, not a guy
that contends, but yeah, kind of.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Find under the radar this season like he does. But
you know, pretty solid recent form from him in good
Master's results over the years too.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
I mean I've been up there.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
So top twenty for him. I did go against your
boy Patrick Reed in a matchup Corey Connors. I laid
minus one thirty four with Overreid. I look, I'm not
gonna I'm not gonna be shocked if Patrick Reed does
show up with the Masters and put together a good tournament.
We know this is one of the places that he
plays well in. But Connors is a guy who was
looking looking to get some action in you.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
I have Connors as a top thirty, Okay, I like that,
so so, you know, because I think he's a consistent cuckmaker.
I know he didn't make it last year, but he
had added a couple back to back top ten finishes,
in one of them being a top five, So I
gotta think the Irons are gonna be The Irons are
gonna be as good as anybody with Corey Connor.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
So at least he got that going for you.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
I had. I added Tony Fenwe minus one twenty over
Tommy Fleetwood. I'm gonna guess Less will sign off on
that one since he's on Feino. And then I did
play Wills. I played Wills Alaturus in a matchup and
plus one forty over Ludwig Oberg. I not I think
Ludvig would be great here over the years, but I
you know, no experience really at discourse. I'll take a
(19:15):
plus one forty price.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
Yeah, that's the one I would lean too, even though
it's Ala Taurus who's not getting who a lot of
people like in the futures market. That's another one like
Brooks where like him in the futures market. But then
you see some of the matchups he's getting bet against.
Now I think that that's too big of a price
for Ludwig personally.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Yeah, that's it. I don't disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
Yeah, really just a price play for me. Okay, real quick,
I know you got to run. Okay, the one guy,
one guy that's maybe near the top of the betting
board where you've heard a lot of love for that
you believe doesn't stand a chance this.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Week, uh Lean Speith, you know.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
And I hate to say that because because Spife's been
known every time I bet against him, he shoves it
you know where, and you know, but but I just
don't see it. He's less than twenty five to one
at some places, and in the low twenties. I think
that wrist is really bothering him, and I don't think
it's gonna get better until maybe he shuts it down
and has a surgery on it. So you know, he
(20:10):
knows the chorus, and he's obviously got as impeccable of
a track record as anybody.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
But yeah, Spief, I'm not that high on this.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Week polarizing guy for me this week, But Rory, I'll
go with Rory there. I can't. I'm not betting against
the guy, but I'm not betting on him either. I
know he's on your card West obviously, you know, rooting
for you as much as I can, But he's the
guy I'm just not buying into at all. Okay, who
what is your favorite bet on your card?
Speaker 4 (20:37):
In terms of an outright Xander Schaffle, I just he
just hit on all the marks for me. He's behind
Scottie Scheffler as he's been all year. But Xander Schoffle,
I think he's in good stead. I think he looks
like he sounds like he's in good spirits too, and
very confident going into this week, So Xander Schoffle in
terms of the outright, for me, the longer shot would
(20:58):
be Cameron Young. I think Cameron Young is really gonna
show here. I can't believe he's fifty five to one
and double the price that he was last year when
he's actually in better form right now.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
I will say my favorite bet is my Matsuyama matchup
over Jordan's speeth, but that's kind of turned into one
since we've heard more right through his stuff, so I
will say that, But I Batsa Yama I almost anything,
Deki man I like, okay uh, and then real quick,
who wins the thing?
Speaker 4 (21:26):
I'm gonna say, stand by your bets.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
I'm gonna say, Deki Matzi Yama, we gotta go. We
got more content to do. That's Wes. I'm Kelly. We'll
be back on Friday. Good luck with all your bets
at the Masters.
This is long Shots, Visan's premiere golf betting podcast.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Welcome in. It's long Shots. Kelly Bidlin, west Reynolds Here.
Matt Brown not with us today on Wednesday afternoon as
we record this. You know why because he's on his
way to Augusta, Georgia. Doesn't that sound nice? West Reynolds.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
Yes, I'm watching the par three actually as we record.
Speaker 2 (00:29):
So you know, all the families.
Speaker 4 (00:31):
It's always kind of a fun event because you got
all the families out there and the little kids dressed
up as caddies.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
So currently watching that as we speak.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Yeah, I don't really understand why there's really like a
competitive need to it. To be honest, like you usually
I'm that guy that it's like, okay, if we're putting
a sporting event on TV, like I want a winner
and a loser. The part three contest I don't really
care about though.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
Yeah, I don't really either, other than the fact that
nobody that's ever won the par three has went on
to win the tournam Man.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Right, is Ricky Fowler still on top of the leaderboard.
Speaker 4 (01:05):
I am not positive because I I just I just
tuned back in briefly here. But yeah, you know, seeing
these guys they'll play with each other that that are
still friendly, Like I think John Rahm, SA and Tony
fen Now are in a group together right now.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Okay, all right, who was it? Who was it? Who
did the was it last year? A couple of years ago?
It's probably like six years ago at this point. I
can't even remember who was it that like skipped the
ball across the water?
Speaker 2 (01:31):
It was John Rahm?
Speaker 1 (01:33):
It was Okay, it was like the past couple of years, right, yeah, crazy, yeah, yeah, yeah,
a lot of guys are trying that shot now. Not
in competition though, Yeah, it's just the Part three contests,
all right.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
Moving on from that to the real Masters that does
begin tomorrow. Quick little pod for you guys if you
did not see, we did have a I don't want
to say live an in studio show that we recorded.
It ran back last night. That is up on the
Vson YouTube page. I did tweet it out earlier today
at Kelly Bidlin, so you can go find that and
see the whole nice, fine, beautiful looking television product that
(02:10):
the crew put together. I was gonna say Matt, Wes
and myself, but that's not us at all. That was
why Tom check and find people we have working behind
the scenes at Vson. So go check that out there will.
If you found this episode, you've probably seen the couple
others that are also in the long Shots feed. We're
gonna be keep cranking these out for you guys during
the Masters. We'll be doing one today, Wes and I
(02:31):
will be back for an after the Cut pod as well,
so we'll talk about kind of where everything sits then.
And I guess that what leads nicely right into that
Wes is we don't really know exactly when that after
the Cut pod might be because of the weather that
we are seeing in August to Georgia. I wanted to
a couple of things we wanted to do on this podcast.
(02:51):
Wanted to make sure we reviewed all of our bets
for you guys as we are kind of finalized and
hear things you know about about what eighteen hours until
we tea off. I wanted kind of address a lot
of the questions that we've been getting and then also
talk about some of these golfers that have started to
slide down the odds board a bit whether though Wes
has been I feel like the number one thing that
(03:12):
I've heard talked about. I've heard a lot of people
ask me about. I've heard a lot of people, I think,
make statements on where there's an advantage and where there's
not an advantage that I don't necessarily agree with. I
think this is I try to say this almost every
week when when we're talking about when we're doing this
podcast and it's I bet a lot of first round
(03:33):
leader stuff. Weather is going to be so impactful with
a small with a small short term bet like that
that I usually wait as long as humanly possible, and
I have not put in a single first round leader
bet yet. For the Masters, I will be making at
least one that we'll get into here in a sec.
(03:54):
But the I'll be Frank. I'll be Frank Wes. The
only reason I'm even I'm even going to be putting
in one or two first round leader bets is because
of the long running trend that we know from the
Masters that you've got to be right near kind of
that top of the leaderboard and maybe you have the
note in front of you. I'll have to pull it
up if not of just you know, you got to
be really close to the lead here if you're gonna
(04:16):
go on and win this thing. So I think any
of those guys that you really do have outright tickets
on that you believe are gonna win this thing. That's
kind of the reason why I will be at least
a deck you'll be playing a first round leader on.
You need those guys to be right there. But just
real quick weather forecast. It is looking. It's a little
bit different from what we talked about last night. It
does look like the afternoon is clearing up a little bit,
(04:39):
but morning's still an absolute nightmare. A ton of rain.
You're seeing high nineties. I mean, this is ninety nine
percent rain, one hundred percent rain at six am tomorrow.
You're talking about wins fifteen fifteen to twenty mile an
hour range. That will be heavy betting wise for you.
What's your biggest takeaway from what you're seeing with the
(05:00):
yeah look.
Speaker 4 (05:02):
And and and I think if it's obviously the early wave,
the the order by the way of the tea times
does not change. So it's not like, Okay, the morning
got washed out, so we're gonna send out the afternoon guys.
So they're gonna send out the morning guys in the afternoon.
Now they get to play the course immediately with what
we would think would be softer conditions, and then the
days as the temperature obviously can creep up, then it
(05:25):
dries out a little bit more. So I wonder if
this is going to favor even the morning guys, even
though their session is getting washed out a little bit.
That number one, they get done first, and then obviously
the guys if they even get out in the afternoon
on Thursday, the second half wave, if they're gonna you know,
(05:47):
they're gonna have to play a lot more golf because
the morning guys are obviously gonna get done first, so
they're not gonna be on the bad end of the
draw in terms of having to play the more holes.
And you know, like we saw last here now John
Rahm overcame that and ended up winning the tournament because
John Ram was on the bad side where you had
to play like all of those holes on Saturday to
(06:08):
try to get this done on Sunday, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
And that so I just wanted to talk through that.
I don't know, I don't really know that there is
I'm going to be making some first round leader bets.
But that is really because of the historical trend with
where you need to be at kind of after the
first round to win the Masters. But this is I
agree with you from what we're seeing with the forecast
(06:30):
right now. And we had Kevin Roth on a numbers
game this morning, meteorologist from roto Grinders. Love talking sports, sports,
weather and betting with him and how it impacts stuff
he thought. He said he'd be shocked at this point
if start times were not delayed. And basically everything that
you just laid out west is what occurs right the way.
Ye the morning groups get pushed back and basically they
(06:53):
get to play, you know, on some softer conditions, and
with the later groups there's some that might start and
then they might not be able to finish, you know,
due to darkness and got to pick it up again
on Friday before they start their second round. I think
that's probably, as of right now, the most likely thing
to occur. I'm just I'm here to caution everybody of
(07:15):
if you are, you gotta be damn sure that you
know what's going on with this father if you're making
bets based off of it, I know it's something we
always talk about as handicappers, but it's not a just
because you know when rain, like you just said with
John rob just because you know what you know or
you think you know when rain's going to occur, doesn't
mean that you've got a lockdown winning bet, you know,
(07:38):
if you're betting around.
Speaker 2 (07:40):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
There are thirty total groups by the way, one group
of two and then the rest are group of three.
So even if you look like, you know, just going
one through fifteen, which would be considered the morning flight,
you know you have like Wyndham Clark, Victor Hoblin, Cam Smith,
they're in the last group in the morning session, then Scheffler,
McElroy's before Rom Fitzpatrick, Dunlapp before Matt Siamasalatorus, Thomas before.
(08:05):
So I'm looking at some of the bigger names. Can't
Ley is in one in one of the early groups.
Niemen is one in one of the early groups female,
So of kind of some of the guys that we
think are gonna be contenders, they're early, but they're not
like the first off the tee or anything. So they're
still in the back end toward the middle. Because Augusta
likes to have a featured group there at the end. Like,
(08:26):
for instance, the last group to finish, assuming it would
be on time tomorrow, would be Dustin Johnson, Moricawa and
Tommy Fleetwood. So they always like to have name guys
in those final groups. So not maybe as huge of
an advantage, but still you'd probably rather be out in
the morning to at least get some soft conditions on Thursday,
depending on how much play we get in.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Yeah, and I think, you know, if I was if
I was looking, you know, if I had to pick
groups or tea times, and I was gonna target because
because of what I think is gonna happen to the weather,
might not be those first groups West. I did get
a tweet about this. I think it was a good point.
It was Paul Nelson that tweeted me. It's the it's
maybe those groups a few in right, because you don't
what I don't necessarily want the guys that might might
(09:09):
get out there right have to play through some terrible
conditions and the horn gets blown and you know, golfers
come off the course. You know, if that happens, you
don't really want those first group guys. Sure, if we
know there's gonna be a delay in start times, then
those guys make more sense to target. That's all of
this just is to say, keep your eye on the
weather and make sure if you're making bets based on that,
(09:30):
you know pretty sure, pretty you know pretty well what's
going to happen. And just because we're talking about bets
and stuff now doesn't mean you can't wait until very
early tomorrow morning to get this stuff in when you
do know what's gonna happen with those start times. Okay,
transition away from that. Wanted to mention a couple guys
(09:51):
that have drifted a bit in the betting odds and
just see if there is any more interest from us
and betting. Some of these guys Brown not with us today.
I know he did make a bet on Sam Byrns
though he has an affinity towards Sam Burns, he is
one of his favorite golfers. But he did text me
he said, all right, if someone's gonna give me eighty
to one on Sam Burns, I'm getting I'm getting in
(10:12):
on this guy. There's a few of these guys that
have drifted. I think there's some of the guys that
we talked about on shows already, but Sam Burns, Victor Howlin,
Patrick can't lay. All these guys drifted. I'm seeing Wyndham
Clark right now, even him at forty to one over
at draftings. Wyndam Clark, a guy that I have an
outright bet on Matt West. Was you that had one
(10:33):
or was it Matt that had window?
Speaker 2 (10:34):
I can't remember. I believe Matt does. I do not
have window.
Speaker 3 (10:37):
I feel like all three of us like crossed over
at each other's cards a little bit this masters, but
not all the way. So I do have a bet
on Window, but he's drifted a bit. Any any of
those guys are any outrights that you feel like you're
gonna add here between now and start a tournament.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
I am very tempted at fifty to one on Patrick
can't lay. I may resist temptation, though, but look, I
just think that that's a huge number. And I don't
think that he's like as off as like Victor Hoblin is,
because Victor Hovelin, I think, is on like his third
swing coach in three months, you know, and has had
the sports psychologists out there. Uh So, yeah, Victor Hoblin,
(11:14):
who I I could have sworn maybe several months ago,
I would have bet here easily and and been very
heavy on him.
Speaker 2 (11:20):
I'm gonna take a pass this week. But it's kind of.
Speaker 4 (11:23):
Interesting, Kelly, because you have some of these players that
are getting faded, like in the UH in the outright market,
or or but but maybe not in the matchup market.
Or you have players that are getting faded in the
matchup market but not the outright market. A couple examples
of the ladder. Brooks Kepka is getting bet against pretty
heavy in some of the matchup markets that I see
against Monts Yama, against Jordan Spief. But yet you're not
(11:45):
seeing him drift in the futures market because he's got
a lot of action on him, because it's Brooks in
a major right right, and you're already being that discount.
So yeah, it's kind of curious that you're seeing him
get faded in the matchup market. A couple of other guys,
Will z aut Torus is getting faded. I've a lot
of love for Wills. Alatoris at least on you outright
and some of the placement markets. But yeah, even getting
(12:06):
faded against Hovlin, even getting faded against can't Ley, So yeah,
that was a little bit curious to me. And then
there's a couple of the players with the injury issues
Jordan Speef, Minwu Lee Minwu is certainly drifted up a
little bit too, about one hundred and fifty to one
in terms of an outright. But yeah, just eyeballing this
and looking at some of the players getting played against
(12:28):
in matchups, Max Homas getting played against a little bit,
So you know, you don't want to read too much
into that, but I do often find that it's curious
when a future price doesn't drift because there's a lot
more I think, I would say casual or public betters
that are going to bet the Masters, because it's a
masters that might not bet golf from a week to
week basis. So when you're seeing the little bit of
(12:49):
moves in the matchups but not in the outright, that
at least gives me pause on some of those guys
on the outrights, like a Brooks or somebody.
Speaker 3 (12:58):
Like that, would I would say though, that that's probably
a bet. What movement that you're seeing in the matchups
is probably a better indicator of where where the actual
respected money's coming in. Then whatever movement you're seeing in
the outrights right, because of what you just talked about
the public, the average recreational better is gonna come in
and bet in the outright market far more than they're
gonna look anywhere else.
Speaker 4 (13:18):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (13:19):
That is interesting. All right, We're gonna keep moving around,
but bouncing around here. Tiger Woods, I want to hit
on him real quick one more time. Here's my opinion
on Tiger. I do not think he's gonna have a
great week. I am not betting ever against Tiger Woods
at the Masters to miss the cut. It's not something
I'm interesting, right. I think that if you are in
the camp of I don't believe in Tiger's health that
(13:41):
he can make it in this tournament. I still suggest
betting against him in a tournament matchup. Give that give
that handicap a four fold, a full four rounds to
play out, instead of limiting yourself to a miscut bet
where you only got two days. Uh, where you're kind
of hoping, you know, some aches and pains can jump
with him. Wes. I don't think you bet anything with
(14:03):
Tiger but agree or disagree with that.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
No, I would totally agree with that assessment. And look,
you're seeing it a little bit. I know he's matched
up with Woodland at DraftKings, in a couple other places,
at a lot of shops. He's matched up against Phil,
and Tiger actually got the early action, and then he
did the press conference on Monday is like, yeah, I
heard everywhere, you know, So then all of a sudden
you started to see people come in on Phil Mickelson.
(14:28):
One of our guests on Vson goes by Indy Jeff.
Jeff Sealey was on with Matt Ewmans and I on
Vson a night on Monday night, just you know, a
quick calling segment, and he goes, yeah, I'm with Phil,
because Phil at least has been playing semi competitive golf.
He's not been playing great and he's not been contending
on a week to week basis, but competitive golf, whether
(14:48):
it's fifty four or seventy two holes, is better than nothing,
which is what essentially Tiger has basically been playing for
the last two or three years. So that's why you've
seen that.
Speaker 2 (14:57):
Phil.
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I think that's move probably about thirty cent. Just eyeball
on the screen here, Yeah, it has.
Speaker 3 (15:03):
I don't know about you, but if you have the options,
I would I would much rather play Gary Woodland over
the Pickleson.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
But that's Sar Whitler, who, by the way, I had
a hole in one today in the Part three contest.
And you know, Gary obviously a great story with you know,
have an allsion removed from his brain. So yeah, and look,
Gary can bomb it. Gary can still hit it really
really long. I think distance does matter here.
Speaker 3 (15:27):
Yeah, great story. Who is that Jeff Darlington? I think
did that on ESPN that that was a great piece
they produced. Typically cap to those guys. All right, well,
I know you've got to run here in a bit.
I don't want to go over our full cards. Everybody
can get those at Visa dot com for me and Wes.
Anything that you added though since yet yesterday when.
Speaker 4 (15:48):
We did the live show that you want to mention,
I did add a couple Top twenties. I basically played
all my futures in either top twenties or top thirties.
Xander played in a Top ten along with Rory, but
a couple of Top twenties I had it. I did
add Patrick Reid at two to one, and look, I
would even lean with him.
Speaker 2 (16:08):
And I'm debating if I want to.
Speaker 4 (16:09):
Add low live even though I already have Nieman in
pocket at maybe twelve to one, because I think Patrick
Reid is kind of going to be a little.
Speaker 2 (16:15):
Surprise this week that maybe we don't expect.
Speaker 4 (16:19):
You've been bullish on it, and look, the form line
doesn't tell you he's going to play great, but you
know that's the case.
Speaker 2 (16:25):
I think.
Speaker 4 (16:25):
I think he plays solid here. Benny on I actually
added in the top twenty and you can get him
in the mid three dollars. I think even still for
that doesn't have a ton of success here, but man,
he hits it long off the tee and the fact
that he got in the Masters.
Speaker 2 (16:39):
He's in the top fifty in the world golf ranking.
Speaker 4 (16:42):
So it's like, Okay, I want to make a return
appearance because that's going to matter for some of these
guys unless they're otherwise qualified. You know, they want a major,
they want a PGA Tour event. I think if you
finish top twelve and ties, you get a return appearance.
So come Sunday, that's going to be something to look
for if you're maybe betting some live you know, like
a placement market live at some of these markets at
(17:03):
DraftKings or other stores, because that's gonna really matter for
some of these guys that are you know.
Speaker 2 (17:08):
You know, obviously for somebody like Rory, it's not gonna matter.
Speaker 4 (17:10):
He's gonna be exempt every year to be at Augusta
and get invited every year. But somebody like Benny On
it'll matter.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
Yea, Yeah, I think that's that's a great tip for
some live Betty to look out for anything else that.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
Yeah, I did, that is all I played.
Speaker 4 (17:24):
I'm gonna do some of the matchups here early on
Wednesday evening and you know, see if I find anything,
or see if I find any like three balls or something,
they'll have that up at visa dot Com slash picks
maybe some round one three balls or something like that,
but probably going to be smaller on the exposure just
because of the fact of the weather that we have
on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (17:45):
Yeah, a couple. So I think I brought this up
on the show. See who Kim though Top twenty did
add that for my card.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
Do Like, I'm kind of digging that a little bit
as more as I look into it too. I haven't
done it yet, but you know, see what was a
guy that's been like he like missed.
Speaker 2 (18:01):
Her Top twenty here. Yeah, yeah, yeah, not a guy
that contends, but yeah, kind of.
Speaker 3 (18:06):
Find under the radar this season like he does. But
you know, pretty solid recent form from him in good
Master's results over the years too.
Speaker 2 (18:13):
I mean I've been up there.
Speaker 3 (18:14):
So top twenty for him. I did go against your
boy Patrick Reed in a matchup Corey Connors. I laid
minus one thirty four with Overreid. I look, I'm not
gonna I'm not gonna be shocked if Patrick Reed does
show up with the Masters and put together a good tournament.
We know this is one of the places that he
plays well in. But Connors is a guy who was
looking looking to get some action in you.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
I have Connors as a top thirty, Okay, I like that,
so so, you know, because I think he's a consistent cuckmaker.
I know he didn't make it last year, but he
had added a couple back to back top ten finishes,
in one of them being a top five, So I
gotta think the Irons are gonna be The Irons are
gonna be as good as anybody with Corey Connor.
Speaker 2 (18:52):
So at least he got that going for you.
Speaker 3 (18:54):
I had. I added Tony Fenwe minus one twenty over
Tommy Fleetwood. I'm gonna guess Less will sign off on
that one since he's on Feino. And then I did
play Wills. I played Wills Alaturus in a matchup and
plus one forty over Ludwig Oberg. I not I think
Ludvig would be great here over the years, but I
you know, no experience really at discourse. I'll take a
(19:15):
plus one forty price.
Speaker 4 (19:16):
Yeah, that's the one I would lean too, even though
it's Ala Taurus who's not getting who a lot of
people like in the futures market. That's another one like
Brooks where like him in the futures market. But then
you see some of the matchups he's getting bet against.
Now I think that that's too big of a price
for Ludwig personally.
Speaker 2 (19:31):
Yeah, that's it. I don't disagree with that.
Speaker 3 (19:33):
Yeah, really just a price play for me. Okay, real quick,
I know you got to run. Okay, the one guy,
one guy that's maybe near the top of the betting
board where you've heard a lot of love for that
you believe doesn't stand a chance this.
Speaker 2 (19:46):
Week, uh Lean Speith, you know.
Speaker 4 (19:49):
And I hate to say that because because Spife's been
known every time I bet against him, he shoves it
you know where, and you know, but but I just
don't see it. He's less than twenty five to one
at some places, and in the low twenties. I think
that wrist is really bothering him, and I don't think
it's gonna get better until maybe he shuts it down
and has a surgery on it. So you know, he
(20:10):
knows the chorus, and he's obviously got as impeccable of
a track record as anybody.
Speaker 2 (20:14):
But yeah, Spief, I'm not that high on this.
Speaker 3 (20:17):
Week polarizing guy for me this week, But Rory, I'll
go with Rory there. I can't. I'm not betting against
the guy, but I'm not betting on him either. I
know he's on your card West obviously, you know, rooting
for you as much as I can, But he's the
guy I'm just not buying into at all. Okay, who
what is your favorite bet on your card?
Speaker 4 (20:37):
In terms of an outright Xander Schaffle, I just he
just hit on all the marks for me. He's behind
Scottie Scheffler as he's been all year. But Xander Schoffle,
I think he's in good stead. I think he looks
like he sounds like he's in good spirits too, and
very confident going into this week, So Xander Schoffle in
terms of the outright, for me, the longer shot would
(20:58):
be Cameron Young. I think Cameron Young is really gonna
show here. I can't believe he's fifty five to one
and double the price that he was last year when
he's actually in better form right now.
Speaker 3 (21:07):
I will say my favorite bet is my Matsuyama matchup
over Jordan's speeth, but that's kind of turned into one
since we've heard more right through his stuff, so I
will say that, But I Batsa Yama I almost anything,
Deki man I like, okay uh, and then real quick,
who wins the thing?
Speaker 4 (21:26):
I'm gonna say, stand by your bets.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
I'm gonna say, Deki Matzi Yama, we gotta go. We
got more content to do. That's Wes. I'm Kelly. We'll
be back on Friday. Good luck with all your bets
at the Masters.
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