March 27, 2024 • 37 mins
Kelley Bydlon and Wes Reynolds preview the Texas Children's Houston Open. Scottie Scheffler is a significant favorite to win his third consecutive start. The guys give their course breakdown and stats that matter. Also, their best bets for the tournament.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Welcome in.
Speaker 4 (00:11):
It's long Shots, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Biblin, Matt Brown, He's
got the week off. You're just gonna get Kelly at
west this week break him down the Houston Open, Wes.
We know we already did Around the World with Wes.
A reminder, we have split up the podcast. If you
are looking for the DP World Tour podcast, check out
Around the World. Check out the long Shots feed. You'll
find that over there. We recorded that already. Westgate went
(00:33):
through all his picks there. You can get his right
up though vson dot Com. As usual with everything we
do for long Shots, picks write ups everything at vson
dot Com. Go there, Wes, my friend, how you been.
How'd you hit him last week.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
At the Vowsbar?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Not very well?
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Hit him very wayward off the t shall we say,
hit him out of bounds, basically not very good on
the placement markets.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Nobody close.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
It was probably one of the worst tournaments I've had
because so many of these guys missed the cut. But
it certainly was an exciting tournament though last week. Good
to you see Peter Malnatty, very good story. First time
in eight and a half years that he had won.
He won the Sanderson Farms in twenty fifteen. I believe
consensus he was two fifty one. I think it's circus
(01:18):
sports here in Las Vegas. He was three hundred and
twenty five to one. Mal Naughty, by the way, has
been very busy because he's one of the six player
directors on this new PGA Tour board, which obviously has
had a lot of issues in terms of pertaining to
the tour in the game of golf with all the
issues and divisions. But he ends up winning by two
strokes over once again the Bridesmaid, Cameron Young, Cameron Young.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Need.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
This guy just can't close it right now.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
He's got seven runner up finishes on the PGA Tour
without of victory. I think I was on him for
like three at least three of those. I know you
were probably off for a two. Yeah, yeah, exactly so.
Malnatty third in the field for strokes. Hean putting four
for gir four for strokes, Ean ball striking night for
approach does get an invitation to the Masters for the
first time in his fifteen year professional career. So it
(02:05):
was good to see him with his family and his
son and he was very emotional. So Malnatti first camerony.
On second, Chandler Phillips PGA Tour rookie tied for third
best career finish along with Mackenzie Hughes, and then the
rest of the top ten Xanderschofle a, Ryan Moore, carl
Ian Adam Adwin, cage Lee, Christian Bezaden Hut, which was
my only winner actually on the placement market. So now
(02:26):
we're done with the Florida Swing and we get the
Texas two Steps starting this week in Houston.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
Yeah, yeah, absolutely no, but not a not a great
tournament for us all around as a podcast. Keith Mitchell
did save me a bit with taking that lead.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Oh yeah, we probably should mention him too, because he
was the overnight leader on Saturday, ended up finishing I
think in the top twenty.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
He was eight over through thirteen holes on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, it was pretty gross.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
I did have an outright in the top twenty on him, luckily,
luckily with that eagle to close out Saturday.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
The back door.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
That's so that's so cruel, man, you got the overnight leader.
It's like, okay, even if he falls back a little bit,
I'm pretty safe here. And then fall's outside the top
twenty and then asked to back door to get his
way back in.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Luckily I was able to buy buy off on a
new price here at Circa on Saturday night. But that's
why that Eagle in eighteen was so huge on Saturday,
just to give me a decent price. So I was
able to squeeze out a small profit I had. I
got a backdoor top ten from Xander playing out of
his mind on.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
He's the master at that man, he's like the new coacher.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
He really is.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
So I was able to squeeze out a small profit,
but nothing to get too excited about. Overall, not exactly
our best tournament, but I mean vals part man, it's
an interesting tournament.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Really, it's it's very difficult.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
It really is. I like it. I like watching it.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
I do too kind of hate where it falls in
the new schedule, just because I think it gets I
think it's just kind of blown by when it's I
think all four of those tournaments and Florida are really exciting.
So it's just I kind of wish all of them
got a little bit more love. And obviously two of
them are elevated events now, but all four are so great.
It just kind of sucks when one gets buried in
(04:11):
between events.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
But we move on. We move on to the Houston Open.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Try to find a winner this week, the Texas Children's
Houston Open. Your odds board, we're down to I know
we have, we have rebounded. I saw Scotty Scheffer get
down as short as plus two fifty A DraftKings back
up to plus two sixty.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
At the moment of this recording, so check again. Yeah,
but that's.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
I don't know if that's because he shaved the beard.
You know what? What what is strokes gating beard shaving?
Because Scotty Scheffer, I'm sure probably number one in the category.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
I think I can speak for most athletes out there, Scottie.
Then yeah, you don't shave the playoff beard if it's
running hot.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I mean, what are you doing? Right?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
That's the worst devision he made.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
A he's tempting, he's tempting fate.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
But by the way, he set the course record here
on this course, just as an a side note with
around of sixty two and twenty twenty one where he
finished runner up. Because remember this event was held in
the fall for a couple of years, so we actually
did not have in a Houston Open last year. So
the last Houston Open we had was twenty twenty two
in November one one by Tony Finow. So now a
(05:23):
new sponsor here for the Houston Open back in its
customary spring spot.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Now two weeks before the Masters. It used to be
the week before.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Yep, So Scheffler plus two sixty at the top, and
we got Wyndham Clark twelve to one, Zalaturres and the
Gala eighteen to one.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Dip down to twenty five to one.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
That's where you're gonna find Tony Fenow, Jason Days he
who kim is twenty eight to one, and then Keith
Mitchell and everybody else thirty five to one or longer.
Wes give us a run through of what you saw
when you dug into the course here.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, it's a little bit different now we're in the spring.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Yeah, six of the top thirty Scheffler, Clark, feenw at
the Galasola Torsen Day headline this field this week I've
got the field updates in the right up at Visa
dot com. But the course we are at is actually
a municipal public course, memorial golf course, which started back
in twenty twenty. This used to be at TPC Woodlands
and I think another course before it settles here. The
(06:23):
Astros Foundation, which operates the tournament, committed thirty four million
dollars for the renovation and redesign. Tom Doak did the
redesign in twenty nineteen. Jim Crane, of course, the owner
of the Astros, kind of saved this tournament from extinction.
It now has a new sponsor. Remember it was the
Shell Houston Open for like a century and then they
dropped out a few years ago, so it is the
(06:44):
Texas Children's Hospital Open here in Houston Open rather par
seventy five, par threes, three par fives, ten par four
seventy four to thirty five. A lot of the trees
are gone, not very many bunkers on the course, fewest
actually have any course on the tour, and the water
is only in play in four holes because this is
a municipal course. So you want the general public to
be able to play this course, and they do a
(07:07):
lot of rounds played here due to the tournament. And
you mentioned the changes because it's been moved from the
fall in the spring. Really the agronomy and all the
horticulture whatever you want to call it, you know, very
different now here in the spring. It used to be
all Bermuda, you know, from tee to green, but now
it's overseated with poetriv on the greens. But the biggest
change though, I think, is the rough.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
It used to be that kind.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Of sticky, if you will, not necessarily high and thick,
even though it was a little higher and thicker than
it is now bermuda rough, but it kind of sticks
to the club a little bit. Well, now you got
that rye grass rough that's about half as thick and
it's kind of like resort style courses. So just by that,
it's going to play a little bit easier. Because the
average round over the last three events has been like
(07:50):
point eight strokes over par, which was the sixth most
difficult on tour. That doesn't mean I think this is
going to play like super easy, but it's going to
play a lot easier than it was just because of
the rye grass rough. Because players i think are a
little bit more confident and aggressive off the tee, whereas
last week at the Valaspar we talked about club and down.
You're not gonna take driver off this. You can take
driver now because you don't have fear of that rough here.
(08:13):
So you know, a couple of different changes up, you know,
around some of the holes. I think the seventeenth hole
got moved thirty yards farther back to kind of you know,
move it along the water because that makes you carry
the water. So they want a little more exciting finish here.
Potentially on the Sunday greens are going to be relatively
firm and fast twelve and a half on the Stimp meter.
(08:33):
In terms of the Hoole ranges, three of the five
threes or like two hundred yards are longer. The eight
par fours, they're either in the mid four one hundred range.
Five of them are actually five hundred yards or more.
Par Force is a long course, so you know you're
gonna have to get it out there, and it's a
par seventy two. It's not a par seventy two at
seventy four to thirty or whatever the yardage is. It
(08:55):
is a longer course, so you know, if you did
any compcourses Golf Club to Houston, which is a former,
and you maybe look at Southern Hills, quil Hollow, Congrey, Augusta, Colonial,
PG National, There's not really a direct correlation, but some
of those guys that have played well at those courses
have played well here. In terms of the most recent winner,
(09:15):
it was Tony Finow who was sixteen under in the
fall twenty twenty two. Jason Kokrak one here on this course,
Carlos Ortiz. Both those latter players now on the live tour.
So keep that in mind when you're looking at the
data twenty twenty and beyond, were the courses that were
or the events that were played on this course at
Memorial Park.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
Yeah, good note, Yeah, good note there. Yeah, five par
threes here, This is five par threes. And I'll bring
that up because basically outside of those, you're basically hitting
driver on every single t shot. So, like you said,
completely opposite of what we talked about last week with
we were not looking at driving distance last week, we
(09:56):
were looking heavily at accuracy. With the reduced rough and
how much you're gonna take driver here, this is turns
into a little bit more of a bum and gouge approach.
I think for some of these guys, I'm really I
was really interested to see how how much they cut
down on that rough you know, when you're talking about
just the course defenses here, it's really these you know,
(10:19):
it's kind of these tricky green complexes, right, I mean
really heavy, heavy undulation on the greens. You're gonna see
elevated greens, So stuff's gonna run off.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
The win because be removed, so it is kind of exposed.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
And yeah, you've got yeah, what's see Last year, twenty
seven percent of strokes gained around came from around the green.
That was the highest rate on tour. So probably uh
the events you'll see us punch that stat in the
most for uh this week or one of the most
that you're gonna hear us talk about all year long.
So definitely some things to be aware of this week.
(10:55):
I just wanted to kick that around to you before
we get to the stats that you and I did
punch in models. Assuming you're you plugged it a lot
a lot of off the tee stats. Are you are
you more worried about a guy here though that's bad
off the tea or bad around the greens.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
A little bit of the ladder here just because of
the rough being cut down.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
So you know, that's three.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
That's why you know, I I went off the tee,
but I didn't go as heavy as.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I thought I was going to.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
I certainly think bombers can have an edge here, so
you certainly want to incorporate that. And one thing I
did do I did driving distance gained and not necessarily
strokes gained off the tee, you know, so driving distance,
you know, you get the guys that really grip it
and rip it here because the rough's just not all
that penal, right, and there's not a lot of bunkers
or water hazards off the tee that you've got to avoid.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So you know, even though the phariraways aren't that go ahead.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
But that around the green a little bit more important
to you. Yeah, right, those are two of the most
important things this way. We always talk about approach, but
this around the green and off the tea more important
this week. And then we usually factor in and definitely
around the green, I think it's his stuff that and scrambling.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
You need to factor in more this week than you usually.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Yeah, the fairways aren't like exactly. You know, super super
narrow or wide here they're kind of a little bit
of in the middle.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
But because that rough is.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
So light, these guys, I don't think, have to feel
like they're concerned off the tee like they were last week.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
Yeah, no, I completely agree.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Okay, before we get to the stats, we did plug
in nothing and wanted to talk to you about. See,
a couple of books are dealing Scheffler versus the Field
Scheffler plus two fifty Field minus four hundred West. If
you had to make a bet on one of those,
where would you bet a man?
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Yeah, because look, he could certainly win. He was a
runner up a couple of years ago. And you know, obviously,
you know he wants to win in his in his
adopted home state. He was originally born and raised in
New Jersey, but of course lives in Dallas. So yeah,
he always wants to win Texas and he's in great form.
But you know, I do wonder you know, the guy
(13:05):
he had, he had a week off, he didn't play
the vals bar after the players a successful players Championship defense.
So it's not like it's a guy you want to
get in front of right now, but you know there
are guys that are really playing for motivation here, not
that he's not motivated and doesn't want to win, But
keep in mind, you have this event and then you
(13:26):
have the Valero Texas Open next week. That's the last
chance for a lot of players to get into the Masters.
We saw and they saw Peter Malnay do it last
week at the Valves Bar getting the Masters. So there's
guys going to be grinding to win like they feel
like this is their season.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Really totally questions.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, I know I'm.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Around it.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
I am dodging here because I because I am a
little bit petrified that Scottie Schffler goes.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Ahead and wins his third event.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
I be one of those.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
But I did not bet Scheffler this week, so you
know i'd go to the field.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
Okay, I didn't bet Schuffier was week either. I'm just
saying if I had to bet one of those two,
I would I would bet Schuffler.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
In Well, we'll probably do our usual top ten on him.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
I think we probably have to, even though we're gonna
be laying money to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But it's like somehow, some.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Way he's gonna get there, Like even if he plays
like mediocre. I feel like Kelly when I'm watching this
on Sunday and you look at that little right portion
of the screen where they have the leaderboard, that even
if he's not at the top, he's gonna be at
the bottom where he's like gonna be. It's gonna say
like seventh or eight Scheffler, or he's gonna get a
top ten even if he plays like mediocre.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
To Okay, I agree with you, but are.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
You willing to lay minus two seventy five on that?
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Wow? It is up. It's up to seventy five now to.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Seventy five for a top ten Scheffler this week?
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Yeah, you know, maybe you just got to take a stand.
I know there are sometimes you do have to take
a stan. Yeah, I was looking at a matchup. I
know there's different matchups of different markets. He's against Wyndham
Clark mostly because they were been one too the last
two weeks at bay Hill, and then of course to
the players Scotti Scheffler. I'm looking at some places, is
(15:10):
minus three dollars in a matchup over Wyndham Clark plus
two forty is Wyndham Clark on the take back. Yeah,
that's you didn't bet it, No, No, I certainly did not.
Now now there are some places too where you can
bet strokes if you really want to get a little
crazy with the cheez whiz here where you can bet
plus like one and a half strokes. It's almost like
(15:31):
betting like a run line or in baseball, or a
puck line in the National Hockey League. So you can
do that with some of these shops on a matchup
if you don't feel comfortable with that man.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
That's an interesting way, and that's not really a market
we've ever talked about. I don't know if I'd ever
imagine myself betting that unless you're laying the strokes.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Yeah, I mean, like with how.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Vauda golf can be, I'd probably if you're gonna play
the plus money, I'd rather just play the plus money
on a match up.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
That would only be something Kelly where I'm laying it
where I would do it for like the fourth round,
Like if you have a class player against some greenhorn
that's never been in the final group on Sunday, you know,
and then all of a sudden he's going against he's
impaired with like Rory McElroy or somebody or some class
player where it's like, Okay, this guy, man, he's gonna
(16:17):
feel this pressure because more often than not, you get
to the chance to win your first time and you've
never been there before. It takes a little scar tissue.
So those guys are usually candidates to shoot a few overparts.
So that's when I would lay that you know, run
and a half, shall we say, or stroking a half
for this game in a fourth round matchup.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
All right, we're gonna run through our stats, the stats
we did plug into the model here quick.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Then we'll take a break and we'll run through our bets.
On the other side. I'm gonna talk Wes into a
bet this week. I can guarantee you.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
I know it's not on his card because I saw
a sneak preview of his article already, and I'm gonna talk.
I'm gonna talk Wes Reynolds into a bet this week.
It's a promise. But West, let's start. Let's start first,
stats that you looked at heavily this week. I know
we talked about it a little bit roughly, but would
you plug into the models.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
I think you have to plug in approach. This is
actually pretty difficult, as compared to most courses on the
tour because the greens are the greens are are not
exactly huge, and you have these runoff areas, so it's
kind of hard to hit some greens here. So strokes
gain approach in terms of like if you want to
go into like a little bit more detail of proximity,
(17:23):
About a third of the shots here last time, actually
a little over the third came from two hundred plus
yards because these are long holes, like these are five
hundred yard plus yard Part four, so you're going to
have to hit it from two hundred or more on
some of these approaches. That was the main proximity. You
could have also done one seventy five to two hundred
as well, because that would cover over half the approach shots.
(17:43):
Strokes gaining around the green, like you mentioned, twenty seven
percent and twenty twenty two came from around the greens
most on the tour. A lot of these greens, you know,
like I said, they have edges that they could fall
into those short grass runoff areas, and your short game
is going to be tested here, so you want to
do strokes gaining around the green heavier than you normally
would also did bogie avoidance, even though it's going to
(18:05):
be a little easier with that rye grass as opposed
to bermuda rough, but the greens are not easy to hit,
and it's difficult for proximity here. It is very difficult
to get it close. It's not just like you know,
where you're Scottie Scheffler and you're always hitting at twelve
feet or something. You're you're gonna have longer shots here,
and you know have to be a good lag putter
and take your two putt driving distance gained. I mentioned
(18:26):
that earlier stroke teeing par five. The par five is
a little bit longer and more challenging, but you got
to try to take advantage here.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
And then I always put birdier better gain.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Just because I want to see the context of how
guys are scoring as of late. Even though I don't
expect that twenty under is going to win this thing.
It's probably gonna be mid teens. But still looked at that.
I looked at I did look at strokes gained putting
a little bit this week, and I did just general
because sometimes you know, when you're at a bent grass course,
(18:56):
you can go stroke gain bent grass putting right or
you can go Bermuda, or you can go Paspalum or
whatever it is. This is Bermuda, but it's dormant with
the Poet trips. So I just went with the overall
putting stats because I think when you're using that POA,
if you use that as a parameter, that gets a
little tricky, right, Yeah, because West Coast POA, and we
talked about this before on long shots, West Coast POA
(19:16):
is a lot more bumpy East Coast POA like you
see in the Northeast at like the Travelers Championship for instance,
in the summer at River Highlands, a lot smoother than
it is. So that's why I don't like to do
a lot of strokes gaging POA because I think that's
really deceiving and you're really getting in the weeds there.
So I just did a little general strokes game putting,
and then I did general scoring stat like I always do,
(19:37):
strokes gaging total difficult scoring conditions. Scoring is still going
to be more difficult than an average event on the
PGA Tour, even though it is going to play easier
this year.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
M Yeah, yeah, that's yeah.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
You hit on mostly everything I had as well. Did
definitely did factor in. I'm glad you brought that off.
A did factor in the strokes gain on more difficult
courses and longer courses. I factored those into.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Well.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
It's kind of funny you brought up the putting because
we talked about off and most most. I think I
probably go less putter than anybody else on here.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
Compared to you and Matt. But I did the exact
same thing this week.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
It was a little bit, but I just wanted to
with these green complexes being so difficult, did want to
factor that in a little bit. But I just did
the basic strokes gain putting. It wasn't for much. I
just wanted to. I wanted to factor it in a
little bit and use it as a bit of a separator.
But yeah, everything else I did strokes tained off the
tea driving distance like you mentioned, and then approach opportunities
gained with these bigger green complexes. The guys that can
(20:31):
put it closer to the pin, the better it's going
to help.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
There.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
The proximity buckets you hit on I basically spread out
over a little bit. One hundred and fifty to one
to seventy five was a lot of the guys I
was looking at or longer off the tee, but then
did one seventy two hundred plus is where I focused
mainly at their strokes. Gain par five as well for me,
got to score. The par fives are tougher, but you
still got to score here, score here to go low
(20:55):
in this tournament around the green as much as I
factored in an A tournament this year, scrambling bogey avoidance
and then three put avoidance as well here on the
bigger creeds for me. Okay, that was everything we plugged in.
We're gonna take a quick break. When we come back.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
We'll go over all of our bets for the Houston Open.
Welcome back to long shots, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here all right, Wes. We went over the stats, we
went over the course. What made it onto your card
this week?
Speaker 3 (21:24):
My friend?
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Yeah, and Scotty Scheffler did not. I'm gonna take a
stand against him at less than three to one and
then probably be ready.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
To get hurt again.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
But that's that's just what you have to do at
this point. So didn't go that.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
Far down the board for me, and against him, you're
gonna be You're gonna bet against him.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I'm not gonna bet against him. I'm gonna stand against
him by not betting him. You're gonna stand, yes, stand away,
I guess probably the better phrasing. Yes yeah, I'm not
getting in front of him, but but not not back
in him either. One guy I did beck, though, and
it's not really all that far down the board. Smith
Agala twenty to one and three top tens in his
(22:01):
last four, was runner up at the Century earlier this year.
He can be a little bit loose off the tee,
as we know, but he's actually gained off the tee
if you look at strokes t ee and off the tee,
which I didn't really measure in the model this week,
but I looked for context, seven of eight starts this
season he's actually gained off the tee where last year
he ranked like one hundred and seventy fourth or something
(22:21):
on the PGA Tour. So at least this driver is
behaving a little bit more, and if it is, it's
a good sign because in other areas he is terrific.
Third and strokes he game putting over the last twenty
four and thirty six around the green, he's got a
real nifty short game because he gets himself so much
in trouble sometimes off the tee that he needs to
rely on it should thrive on these faster greens. And
(22:42):
by the way, a lot of people don't know see
he Figala is actually based here in Houston and lives
in Houston, even though he's originally from California, so he's
played this a lot. I'm sure this event means a
lot to him. I think he comes in as a
different player. Remember, he did win the fort Net last fall,
so it's not like he's that guy that has.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
That jitters trying to win it for his first time.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
So was he a guy west that had been on
your radar a little bit?
Speaker 3 (23:07):
This is a little bit of a h you know,
you know, whatever the hell the term is.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
But a spoiler, spoiler, he's also on my card. He's
also on my card, which will make it a pod play.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
I guess this. It's just me and you this week,
so I'll fire.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Oh, we do have it, Okay, I mean we do
have because I thought I was gonna have to try.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
To do that.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
But I think as I do, as I dug into
him more this week, I guess I don't. He wasn't
a guy been betting much this year and hadn't really
heavily considered him at any other tournament, So yeah, I don't.
The finish is snuck up on me a pit. I
was like, Wow, he's actually been.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Playing top ten at the Players, top ten at the
Bay Hill, and look those are those were elite fields,
you know, those were elevated fields. And now he got
a Houston, which has some good players in it. But
this is not you know that twenty million dollar plus
perse deal nine point one million by the way, for
this field of one forty four this week. But yeah,
he I I felt I was looking at him or
(24:01):
maybe Zalatorus because a lot of people do like Xalatorus
this week.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
But and I think his win is gonna come.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
I think so Tom at that tournament down in Augusta
in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
Right, Yeah, I already have a bet in on that.
I hope that happens.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Was the separator mainly for me, And I mean I
could have bet him both, but I chose not to.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
I left Vala Taurus off the card this week.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
I just the around the green game still concerns me
a little bit with Willy z is just is it
good enough to really, you know, really go out and
win here when I think that's going to be pretty
important this week. That's where the galla kind of checks
all the boxes this week. So I like that one
a lot of I'm let you finish your card. But
I wanted to jump in on that one because he
is my favor He's probably my favorite golf of this week.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
He's the guy who using him would have done.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
Yeah, I think this is a good week to use
him if you haven't already one. I don't like the price,
but I think I cannot kind of understand where it is.
But uh, Alex Nora in at forty to one seems
like a low price on on this guy who, while
he has ten victories on the DP World Tour, hasn't
won on the PGA Tour. He's now forty one, has
not won anywhere in nearly six years. And he always
(25:08):
has a really good short game, like if you ever
see him for strokes agatting around the green or strokes
again putting, he's always very much up there if you
ever model that stuff. But the driver in the irons
have been on an uptick of Lake because the ball
striking can be very hit and miss with this guy.
But over the last eight rounds he ranks fifth and
strokes gain total and thirteenth in strokes gained approach. So
(25:29):
you know, Nora, and I think is a guy that's
going to embrace the challenge off these greens, you know,
whereas some guys I think are going to get in trouble.
He is very good when when I think the around
the green stuff is tougher. So alex norin forty to
one for me, and then another guy who's still seeking
that first win that always seems to model really high,
but man just doesn't win, as Stephan Jaeger at fifty
(25:50):
to one, top ten here in twenty twenty two, missed
two of the three cuts in Florida, but before that
he was top three at Tory Pines, was top three
in Mexico. If you go back a little bit, last
thirty six rounds, tenth strokes he had total thirteenth off
the tee. So he's a guy if they could make it,
he can get right here. Even though he had a
little minor slump in Florida.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
Jake throwout Florida and he's been he's been playing well.
I did have I did land on him for a
ben as well.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
So yeah, it's uh throwout Florida, Yeah exactly, but it
has been gross the past few weeks.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
It is Jake Knapp sixty to one, just six weeks removed,
of course, from winning his maiden PGA Tour victory at
the Mexico Open, and then the following week he actually
was fourth that PGA PG National made the cut at
Bayhill and the players, even though he's never really in
the mix in those two events. Six on approach, fifteenth
on putting last twenty four rounds. Maybe this is like
(26:42):
what Darius van Driel is spoiler alert. He was on
my card for the Indian Open, which you can catch
on around the world with Wes Reynolds wherever you get
your podcast. You know who had just won several weeks
ago at Kenya. So I'm gonna try the same thing
with Jake Knapp here. Joel Damon eighty five to one,
fifth here in twenty twenty one, ninth year in twenty
twenty two, fifth on approach last twenty four rounds, third
(27:04):
last week at the Ballast Bar for both approach and
ball striking Woods we were like out of he finished
like T forty nine. Well it's because he didn't really
gain around the greens. But you know that's such variance.
Like whenever winning doubt, Kelly, I'm always like, okay, maybe
the ball striking stays true.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Oh yeah, and we brought it.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
I brought him up last week. Like his his iron
play has been so incredible and prochwise like I couldn't
he was. He was messing with my head last week
because it didn't I didn't end up making my card,
but it was what was it the players that his
like his stats were so good at the players it
was kind of skewing some of my models. But Jake
Knapp him, I kind of co s on him both.
(27:44):
They didn't bet either one of them, but I looked
at both of them pretty hard.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
Yeah, and Damon, look just the course experience here. I mean,
we don't have a lot of form to go on
because he've only played three years here, but two top
tens last two times he's played here.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
So I thought he made sense.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
A guy that Matt mentioned last week that I am
going to be on this week and somebody I really
like here. I think he could play very well and
it's one of my two bombs. Andrew Novak at one
hundred and ten to one, missed the cut at the Players,
but was t seventeen last week at the valast Bar.
He led the field for greens and regulation and was
fifth on approach. And if you look before, you know
(28:20):
they got the the you know, the start of the
Florida Swing, he had three top tens in a row
at Phoenix, at Mexico and at PGA National, So top
ten and strokes gained approach, top ten and strokes gained
around the green over the last twenty four rounds. So
I thought this was a big number. I know he's
not one, you know, pretty new to the tour, but
I think he could play well here. And then another
(28:41):
guy I did go with, like one real bomber because
I didn't want to go two bomber heavy, even though
I think, you know, with the with the rough being down,
bombers could have success here. A German player named Maddy
Schmid at one hundred and thirty to one eight for strokes,
gaining total ninth off the tee in seventeenth for putting
over the last eight rounds. If you look at the
Forum seven team twenty sixth and tenth in his last
(29:02):
three starts, so you know, I worry like this is
a sixth tournament in a row.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
But Matty Schmid is a guy.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Because I looked at some of those guys that were
like really good drivers in terms of distance, So I
was like, okay, well, who are you always going to
think of the Cameron Champs and the Chris Gottterups and
the Coodie brothers both in the field this week Johnny
Vegas Jake Knapp actually did qualify Wyndham Clark, but you know,
I went in and went with the gentleman Maddy Schmid
(29:33):
from Germany at one hundred and thirty to one, and
that's my card this week so far. For the Houston Open,
I'll have a few placement markets, maybe maybe maybe going
a little bit lighter on those because last week was
a very much a disaster for me at the vals bar.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
Yeah here you the Yeah, it's a pretty light cardiff
for me overall. Right now, West had actually mentioned a
bunch of guys that I was coming back and forth
on didn't end up playing nap probably the most the
closest of all of them. I know, I'm assuming you
haven't done your your your matchup shopping yet, right, No,
you usually wait for that. Okay, So my big all right,
(30:11):
all right, this is my this is my biggest, biggest
matchup better the year so far. How would you expect
Peter Baldotti to do this week? Who is in the
field after winning last week? Yeah, and and after and
after what eight years wins?
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Because that's that guy.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
That guy ain't partying for a day or two after
that win.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Oh boy, emotional drain. And we saw him in tears
Greenside and you know, and I mentioned the fact that
he's doing that that you know, he's part of that
player board that Jordan Spieve and Tiger and Adam Scott
a couple others six player boards.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
So he was actually, i believe recently.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Down in the Bahamas meeting with the PIFF guy because
they're still doing those those talks with the guys that
obviously Piff owns owns that tour, so they're still doing
those communications, you know, the peace talks, like like Camp
David Accords or something between these guys. But you know,
so he's been busy, he's had a lot on his
(31:12):
plate besides playing, and now he's like Hey, I got
the Masters man, I won, so I got a two
year exemption also on the PGA Tour and and all
that and all the perks that come with it. So yeah,
I'd be interested more in fading him than backing him.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Right exactly.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
So would you be interested in Andrew Novak minus one
oh five over Peter malnaughty because I hammered it?
Speaker 2 (31:33):
I would?
Speaker 1 (31:33):
I would because look, you know, when you look at
like an odd screen, like the don Best screen you know,
or or or the spank odds or whatever you look at,
he's matched up a lot against Joe Bramlett, uh where
Joe Bramlet's like about minus a dollar thirty And I
think that price about right. Bramlett, by the way, another
one of those bomber guys. If you want to look
at him a little bit, if you want to put
(31:55):
a bomber on the card, he's gonna be able to
grip it and rip it off the tee. So I
would lean Bramlet at that price, But that Andrew Novak
price very very.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Stations, buddy, Yeah, go get it. I liked I like that.
Speaker 4 (32:07):
I like I like that way better than I liked
Ramble with this week, I like you just said, I
would still lean to that minus one thirty on Bramlet,
but I'll take minus one o five on a guy
I like a lot better this week in a heartbeat.
So I just wanted to start you off with that one.
That's the only Urnament matchup I half in my bat
in my on my card so far the start. But yeah,
it was I'm I'm hammering that one, trusting that I'm
(32:30):
thinking Aboutnott. He's not going to show up for another
week after that, but we'll see. It's a we're gambling there.
I don't have one single pure outright on my card
West Reynolds. What I did is to attack the winner
without market this week. I want Scottie Scheffler far and
away from me. So I did start with the Galla.
I do have a Thigala bet, but it is at
sixteen to one without Scheffler in there. And then the
(32:52):
only other one that I played this week for an
outright but not an outright without Toddy Scheffler is Kurt
Kadi Yama. He was kind of popping. I don't want
to say he was a pure top ten model. Play
kind of across all the ones I did. He was
probably anywhere from five to twentiest range for me, but
spiked in a couple of him.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
T nineteen at the Players.
Speaker 4 (33:14):
He's got some up and down results this year miscut
at the API T thirty nine, Genesis T eight at Phoenix.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
I like his game for this course too.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
I think he's going to be able to hit it
vomb it off the tee a bit. You know, he's
not a terrible round the green game. So kitty Yama
did play forty five to one in the winner with Scotty.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
There are some people out there that I do respect
that actually had Kurt kitty Yama on the card. So
I did take a look at him, and you know
that will likely be I'm guessing like a placement market
type of thing for me. But he's really good with
long irons too, which I think would serve him well
here the first time ever playing here. I don't think
that's that big of a deal. He's only missed one
(33:54):
cut in seven starts too, so you know, because he
had kind of fallen off after he on the Arnold
Palmer of course at like two hundred and one and
held off all those elite players.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
But you know, maybe, yeah.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
This would be This would be like a top twenty,
top thirty type of guy for me at least, because
I think he's starting to kind of, you know, find
a little bit of form.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
Yeah, so those two in the winner without Shuffer market
Figala and Kida Yama, and then I moved down to
the finishing position markets top twenty that I have a
top twenty bet on Figala pretty heavily. I went back
to Keith Mitchell in the top twenty market two to
one on Keith Mitchell.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (34:33):
I think Matt might have nailed it last week when
he brought up about Doug Gimmer. We worried about these
guys playing so many events in a row, and Keith
Mitchell falls into that category now coming over to play.
Speaker 1 (34:43):
Yeah, it's kind of hard to back him to win,
even though there's a couple of notables out there in
the golf betting market that did. But yeah, you know,
I don't want to necessarily fade him, but I wouldn't
back him like on an outright. I think the best
way to play him would be placements, because this guy
can hit it off the t too, and you think
would be a pretty darn good fit on this course.
Speaker 4 (35:05):
Yeah, so top twenty at two to one for him
again recent results, he's been living in that range. T
seventeen last week he was seventy third the players, but
then T nineteen at the Cognisant ten nineteen in Mexico,
T seventeen at Phoenix, had it finished T nine here
last year. So I'm going back with back with Keith
Mitchell for another week. I think this is the fourth
week in a row with met Keith Mitchell. So top
(35:26):
twenty two to one on him at Jager, then I
split bets. I played a two to one on him
on the top twenty, and then I played minus one
twenty on a top forty for Yeager. Same kind of
a little bit of the same story here as Kiddy Yama.
He was a little bit all over all over the
place of my models from you know, kind of ranging
bottom top ten into into the teams for me and
(35:49):
the models. But T nine finish here last year again
you talked about it, he kind of throwout Florida, kind
of willing to give him a break. I think at
these prices, at least a top forty bet, I think
it's pretty alid on him this week.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
So that's everything I have y now.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
I don't really don't really expect I'm going to be
adding too much more, A little bit of a lighter
card for me this week.
Speaker 3 (36:08):
I do think there's a.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Lot of win equity at the top this week with Scheffler,
with Wyndham Clark the way he's been playing, and possibly
with zal Taurus as well. He does scare me. So
just a recap real quick winner without Scheffler market. I
played Figala in Kitty Yama and then top twenties on Figala,
Keith Mitchell.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
And Jager, a top forty on Yaeger, and.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Then one tournament matchup for me so far Novak over Mad,
naughty Wes recap all your stuff real quick.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
Yeah, and one guy.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
I also want to mention I'll probably have an a
placement market because he did, you know, really jumped off
the page for all the around the green stuff and
the putting stuff. Aaron Baddeley, who played pretty solid last week.
He might be one I have on a placement. Maybe
not in and out right, but the out right card.
I siff Figala twenty to one, Alex and Orn forty
to one, Stephan Yeger fifty to one, Jake Knap sixty
(36:59):
to one, Ungel Damen eighty five to one in the
Two Bombs, Andrew Novak one hundred and ten to one,
Matty Schmid one hundred and thirty to one.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
All Right, I like it.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
It's got a winner this week, or you know, or
Scottie Shuffler you can.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Win for me.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
But then I need uh see you than to finish second,
and uh, then Wes is gonna.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
Be you need him in the window Clark, you need
him in the Windom Clark spot.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
And then I'm gonna be like, man, you were really
smart and I was a complete dope.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Go ahead under your breath, Yeah exactly. Yeah, all right,
let's see, let's try to get one home this week.
Thanks for listening to everybody again. Get all the around
the world stuff uh from yesterday. You can find that
in the podcast feed all of Wes's course breakdowns at
vson dot com. Get all our bets at vson dot com.
For Wes, I'm Kelly. We'll talk to you next week.
This is long Shots, Vison's premiere golf betting podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
Welcome in.
Speaker 4 (00:11):
It's long Shots, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Biblin, Matt Brown, He's
got the week off. You're just gonna get Kelly at
west this week break him down the Houston Open, Wes.
We know we already did Around the World with Wes.
A reminder, we have split up the podcast. If you
are looking for the DP World Tour podcast, check out
Around the World. Check out the long Shots feed. You'll
find that over there. We recorded that already. Westgate went
(00:33):
through all his picks there. You can get his right
up though vson dot Com. As usual with everything we
do for long Shots, picks write ups everything at vson
dot Com. Go there, Wes, my friend, how you been.
How'd you hit him last week.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
At the Vowsbar?
Speaker 2 (00:48):
Not very well?
Speaker 1 (00:49):
Hit him very wayward off the t shall we say,
hit him out of bounds, basically not very good on
the placement markets.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
Nobody close.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
It was probably one of the worst tournaments I've had
because so many of these guys missed the cut. But
it certainly was an exciting tournament though last week. Good
to you see Peter Malnatty, very good story. First time
in eight and a half years that he had won.
He won the Sanderson Farms in twenty fifteen. I believe
consensus he was two fifty one. I think it's circus
(01:18):
sports here in Las Vegas. He was three hundred and
twenty five to one. Mal Naughty, by the way, has
been very busy because he's one of the six player
directors on this new PGA Tour board, which obviously has
had a lot of issues in terms of pertaining to
the tour in the game of golf with all the
issues and divisions. But he ends up winning by two
strokes over once again the Bridesmaid, Cameron Young, Cameron Young.
Speaker 4 (01:40):
Need.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
This guy just can't close it right now.
Speaker 1 (01:42):
He's got seven runner up finishes on the PGA Tour
without of victory. I think I was on him for
like three at least three of those. I know you
were probably off for a two. Yeah, yeah, exactly so.
Malnatty third in the field for strokes. Hean putting four
for gir four for strokes, Ean ball striking night for
approach does get an invitation to the Masters for the
first time in his fifteen year professional career. So it
(02:05):
was good to see him with his family and his
son and he was very emotional. So Malnatti first camerony.
On second, Chandler Phillips PGA Tour rookie tied for third
best career finish along with Mackenzie Hughes, and then the
rest of the top ten Xanderschofle a, Ryan Moore, carl
Ian Adam Adwin, cage Lee, Christian Bezaden Hut, which was
my only winner actually on the placement market. So now
(02:26):
we're done with the Florida Swing and we get the
Texas two Steps starting this week in Houston.
Speaker 4 (02:31):
Yeah, yeah, absolutely no, but not a not a great
tournament for us all around as a podcast. Keith Mitchell
did save me a bit with taking that lead.
Speaker 1 (02:41):
Oh yeah, we probably should mention him too, because he
was the overnight leader on Saturday, ended up finishing I
think in the top twenty.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
He was eight over through thirteen holes on Sunday.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
Yeah, it was pretty gross.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
I did have an outright in the top twenty on him, luckily,
luckily with that eagle to close out Saturday.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
The back door.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
That's so that's so cruel, man, you got the overnight leader.
It's like, okay, even if he falls back a little bit,
I'm pretty safe here. And then fall's outside the top
twenty and then asked to back door to get his
way back in.
Speaker 3 (03:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (03:14):
Luckily I was able to buy buy off on a
new price here at Circa on Saturday night. But that's
why that Eagle in eighteen was so huge on Saturday,
just to give me a decent price. So I was
able to squeeze out a small profit I had. I
got a backdoor top ten from Xander playing out of
his mind on.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
He's the master at that man, he's like the new coacher.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
He really is.
Speaker 4 (03:35):
So I was able to squeeze out a small profit,
but nothing to get too excited about. Overall, not exactly
our best tournament, but I mean vals part man, it's
an interesting tournament.
Speaker 2 (03:45):
Really, it's it's very difficult.
Speaker 3 (03:47):
It really is. I like it. I like watching it.
Speaker 4 (03:50):
I do too kind of hate where it falls in
the new schedule, just because I think it gets I
think it's just kind of blown by when it's I
think all four of those tournaments and Florida are really exciting.
So it's just I kind of wish all of them
got a little bit more love. And obviously two of
them are elevated events now, but all four are so great.
It just kind of sucks when one gets buried in
(04:11):
between events.
Speaker 3 (04:12):
But we move on. We move on to the Houston Open.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
Try to find a winner this week, the Texas Children's
Houston Open. Your odds board, we're down to I know
we have, we have rebounded. I saw Scotty Scheffer get
down as short as plus two fifty A DraftKings back
up to plus two sixty.
Speaker 3 (04:32):
At the moment of this recording, so check again. Yeah,
but that's.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
I don't know if that's because he shaved the beard.
You know what? What what is strokes gating beard shaving?
Because Scotty Scheffer, I'm sure probably number one in the category.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
I think I can speak for most athletes out there, Scottie.
Then yeah, you don't shave the playoff beard if it's
running hot.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
I mean, what are you doing? Right?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
That's the worst devision he made.
Speaker 2 (04:59):
A he's tempting, he's tempting fate.
Speaker 1 (05:01):
But by the way, he set the course record here
on this course, just as an a side note with
around of sixty two and twenty twenty one where he
finished runner up. Because remember this event was held in
the fall for a couple of years, so we actually
did not have in a Houston Open last year. So
the last Houston Open we had was twenty twenty two
in November one one by Tony Finow. So now a
(05:23):
new sponsor here for the Houston Open back in its
customary spring spot.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
Now two weeks before the Masters. It used to be
the week before.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
Yep, So Scheffler plus two sixty at the top, and
we got Wyndham Clark twelve to one, Zalaturres and the
Gala eighteen to one.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
Dip down to twenty five to one.
Speaker 4 (05:42):
That's where you're gonna find Tony Fenow, Jason Days he
who kim is twenty eight to one, and then Keith
Mitchell and everybody else thirty five to one or longer.
Wes give us a run through of what you saw
when you dug into the course here.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
Yeah, it's a little bit different now we're in the spring.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Yeah, six of the top thirty Scheffler, Clark, feenw at
the Galasola Torsen Day headline this field this week I've
got the field updates in the right up at Visa
dot com. But the course we are at is actually
a municipal public course, memorial golf course, which started back
in twenty twenty. This used to be at TPC Woodlands
and I think another course before it settles here. The
(06:23):
Astros Foundation, which operates the tournament, committed thirty four million
dollars for the renovation and redesign. Tom Doak did the
redesign in twenty nineteen. Jim Crane, of course, the owner
of the Astros, kind of saved this tournament from extinction.
It now has a new sponsor. Remember it was the
Shell Houston Open for like a century and then they
dropped out a few years ago, so it is the
(06:44):
Texas Children's Hospital Open here in Houston Open rather par
seventy five, par threes, three par fives, ten par four
seventy four to thirty five. A lot of the trees
are gone, not very many bunkers on the course, fewest
actually have any course on the tour, and the water
is only in play in four holes because this is
a municipal course. So you want the general public to
be able to play this course, and they do a
(07:07):
lot of rounds played here due to the tournament. And
you mentioned the changes because it's been moved from the
fall in the spring. Really the agronomy and all the
horticulture whatever you want to call it, you know, very
different now here in the spring. It used to be
all Bermuda, you know, from tee to green, but now
it's overseated with poetriv on the greens. But the biggest
change though, I think, is the rough.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
It used to be that kind.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Of sticky, if you will, not necessarily high and thick,
even though it was a little higher and thicker than
it is now bermuda rough, but it kind of sticks
to the club a little bit. Well, now you got
that rye grass rough that's about half as thick and
it's kind of like resort style courses. So just by that,
it's going to play a little bit easier. Because the
average round over the last three events has been like
(07:50):
point eight strokes over par, which was the sixth most
difficult on tour. That doesn't mean I think this is
going to play like super easy, but it's going to
play a lot easier than it was just because of
the rye grass rough. Because players i think are a
little bit more confident and aggressive off the tee, whereas
last week at the Valaspar we talked about club and down.
You're not gonna take driver off this. You can take
driver now because you don't have fear of that rough here.
(08:13):
So you know, a couple of different changes up, you know,
around some of the holes. I think the seventeenth hole
got moved thirty yards farther back to kind of you know,
move it along the water because that makes you carry
the water. So they want a little more exciting finish here.
Potentially on the Sunday greens are going to be relatively
firm and fast twelve and a half on the Stimp meter.
(08:33):
In terms of the Hoole ranges, three of the five
threes or like two hundred yards are longer. The eight
par fours, they're either in the mid four one hundred range.
Five of them are actually five hundred yards or more.
Par Force is a long course, so you know you're
gonna have to get it out there, and it's a
par seventy two. It's not a par seventy two at
seventy four to thirty or whatever the yardage is. It
(08:55):
is a longer course, so you know, if you did
any compcourses Golf Club to Houston, which is a former,
and you maybe look at Southern Hills, quil Hollow, Congrey, Augusta, Colonial,
PG National, There's not really a direct correlation, but some
of those guys that have played well at those courses
have played well here. In terms of the most recent winner,
(09:15):
it was Tony Finow who was sixteen under in the
fall twenty twenty two. Jason Kokrak one here on this course,
Carlos Ortiz. Both those latter players now on the live tour.
So keep that in mind when you're looking at the
data twenty twenty and beyond, were the courses that were
or the events that were played on this course at
Memorial Park.
Speaker 4 (09:35):
Yeah, good note, Yeah, good note there. Yeah, five par
threes here, This is five par threes. And I'll bring
that up because basically outside of those, you're basically hitting
driver on every single t shot. So, like you said,
completely opposite of what we talked about last week with
we were not looking at driving distance last week, we
(09:56):
were looking heavily at accuracy. With the reduced rough and
how much you're gonna take driver here, this is turns
into a little bit more of a bum and gouge approach.
I think for some of these guys, I'm really I
was really interested to see how how much they cut
down on that rough you know, when you're talking about
just the course defenses here, it's really these you know,
(10:19):
it's kind of these tricky green complexes, right, I mean
really heavy, heavy undulation on the greens. You're gonna see
elevated greens, So stuff's gonna run off.
Speaker 2 (10:28):
The win because be removed, so it is kind of exposed.
Speaker 4 (10:33):
And yeah, you've got yeah, what's see Last year, twenty
seven percent of strokes gained around came from around the green.
That was the highest rate on tour. So probably uh
the events you'll see us punch that stat in the
most for uh this week or one of the most
that you're gonna hear us talk about all year long.
So definitely some things to be aware of this week.
(10:55):
I just wanted to kick that around to you before
we get to the stats that you and I did
punch in models. Assuming you're you plugged it a lot
a lot of off the tee stats. Are you are
you more worried about a guy here though that's bad
off the tea or bad around the greens.
Speaker 1 (11:14):
A little bit of the ladder here just because of
the rough being cut down.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
So you know, that's three.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
That's why you know, I I went off the tee,
but I didn't go as heavy as.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
I thought I was going to.
Speaker 1 (11:26):
I certainly think bombers can have an edge here, so
you certainly want to incorporate that. And one thing I
did do I did driving distance gained and not necessarily
strokes gained off the tee, you know, so driving distance,
you know, you get the guys that really grip it
and rip it here because the rough's just not all
that penal, right, and there's not a lot of bunkers
or water hazards off the tee that you've got to avoid.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
So you know, even though the phariraways aren't that go ahead.
Speaker 4 (11:50):
But that around the green a little bit more important
to you. Yeah, right, those are two of the most
important things this way. We always talk about approach, but
this around the green and off the tea more important
this week. And then we usually factor in and definitely
around the green, I think it's his stuff that and scrambling.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
You need to factor in more this week than you usually.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
Yeah, the fairways aren't like exactly. You know, super super
narrow or wide here they're kind of a little bit
of in the middle.
Speaker 2 (12:17):
But because that rough is.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
So light, these guys, I don't think, have to feel
like they're concerned off the tee like they were last week.
Speaker 3 (12:24):
Yeah, no, I completely agree.
Speaker 4 (12:26):
Okay, before we get to the stats, we did plug
in nothing and wanted to talk to you about. See,
a couple of books are dealing Scheffler versus the Field
Scheffler plus two fifty Field minus four hundred West. If
you had to make a bet on one of those,
where would you bet a man?
Speaker 1 (12:43):
Yeah, because look, he could certainly win. He was a
runner up a couple of years ago. And you know, obviously,
you know he wants to win in his in his
adopted home state. He was originally born and raised in
New Jersey, but of course lives in Dallas. So yeah,
he always wants to win Texas and he's in great form.
But you know, I do wonder you know, the guy
(13:05):
he had, he had a week off, he didn't play
the vals bar after the players a successful players Championship defense.
So it's not like it's a guy you want to
get in front of right now, but you know there
are guys that are really playing for motivation here, not
that he's not motivated and doesn't want to win, But
keep in mind, you have this event and then you
(13:26):
have the Valero Texas Open next week. That's the last
chance for a lot of players to get into the Masters.
We saw and they saw Peter Malnay do it last
week at the Valves Bar getting the Masters. So there's
guys going to be grinding to win like they feel
like this is their season.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
Really totally questions.
Speaker 2 (13:43):
Yeah, I know I'm.
Speaker 3 (13:46):
Around it.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
I am dodging here because I because I am a
little bit petrified that Scottie Schffler goes.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Ahead and wins his third event.
Speaker 3 (13:53):
I be one of those.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
But I did not bet Scheffler this week, so you
know i'd go to the field.
Speaker 4 (14:01):
Okay, I didn't bet Schuffier was week either. I'm just
saying if I had to bet one of those two,
I would I would bet Schuffler.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
In Well, we'll probably do our usual top ten on him.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
I think we probably have to, even though we're gonna
be laying money to do it.
Speaker 2 (14:14):
But it's like somehow, some.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
Way he's gonna get there, Like even if he plays
like mediocre. I feel like Kelly when I'm watching this
on Sunday and you look at that little right portion
of the screen where they have the leaderboard, that even
if he's not at the top, he's gonna be at
the bottom where he's like gonna be. It's gonna say
like seventh or eight Scheffler, or he's gonna get a
top ten even if he plays like mediocre.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
To Okay, I agree with you, but are.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
You willing to lay minus two seventy five on that?
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Wow? It is up. It's up to seventy five now to.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
Seventy five for a top ten Scheffler this week?
Speaker 1 (14:49):
Yeah, you know, maybe you just got to take a stand.
I know there are sometimes you do have to take
a stan. Yeah, I was looking at a matchup. I
know there's different matchups of different markets. He's against Wyndham
Clark mostly because they were been one too the last
two weeks at bay Hill, and then of course to
the players Scotti Scheffler. I'm looking at some places, is
(15:10):
minus three dollars in a matchup over Wyndham Clark plus
two forty is Wyndham Clark on the take back. Yeah,
that's you didn't bet it, No, No, I certainly did not.
Now now there are some places too where you can
bet strokes if you really want to get a little
crazy with the cheez whiz here where you can bet
plus like one and a half strokes. It's almost like
(15:31):
betting like a run line or in baseball, or a
puck line in the National Hockey League. So you can
do that with some of these shops on a matchup
if you don't feel comfortable with that man.
Speaker 4 (15:41):
That's an interesting way, and that's not really a market
we've ever talked about. I don't know if I'd ever
imagine myself betting that unless you're laying the strokes.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Yeah, I mean, like with how.
Speaker 4 (15:52):
Vauda golf can be, I'd probably if you're gonna play
the plus money, I'd rather just play the plus money
on a match up.
Speaker 1 (15:57):
That would only be something Kelly where I'm laying it
where I would do it for like the fourth round,
Like if you have a class player against some greenhorn
that's never been in the final group on Sunday, you know,
and then all of a sudden he's going against he's
impaired with like Rory McElroy or somebody or some class
player where it's like, Okay, this guy, man, he's gonna
(16:17):
feel this pressure because more often than not, you get
to the chance to win your first time and you've
never been there before. It takes a little scar tissue.
So those guys are usually candidates to shoot a few overparts.
So that's when I would lay that you know, run
and a half, shall we say, or stroking a half
for this game in a fourth round matchup.
Speaker 4 (16:36):
All right, we're gonna run through our stats, the stats
we did plug into the model here quick.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Then we'll take a break and we'll run through our bets.
On the other side. I'm gonna talk Wes into a
bet this week. I can guarantee you.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
I know it's not on his card because I saw
a sneak preview of his article already, and I'm gonna talk.
I'm gonna talk Wes Reynolds into a bet this week.
It's a promise. But West, let's start. Let's start first,
stats that you looked at heavily this week. I know
we talked about it a little bit roughly, but would
you plug into the models.
Speaker 1 (17:01):
I think you have to plug in approach. This is
actually pretty difficult, as compared to most courses on the
tour because the greens are the greens are are not
exactly huge, and you have these runoff areas, so it's
kind of hard to hit some greens here. So strokes
gain approach in terms of like if you want to
go into like a little bit more detail of proximity,
(17:23):
About a third of the shots here last time, actually
a little over the third came from two hundred plus
yards because these are long holes, like these are five
hundred yard plus yard Part four, so you're going to
have to hit it from two hundred or more on
some of these approaches. That was the main proximity. You
could have also done one seventy five to two hundred
as well, because that would cover over half the approach shots.
(17:43):
Strokes gaining around the green, like you mentioned, twenty seven
percent and twenty twenty two came from around the greens
most on the tour. A lot of these greens, you know,
like I said, they have edges that they could fall
into those short grass runoff areas, and your short game
is going to be tested here, so you want to
do strokes gaining around the green heavier than you normally
would also did bogie avoidance, even though it's going to
(18:05):
be a little easier with that rye grass as opposed
to bermuda rough, but the greens are not easy to hit,
and it's difficult for proximity here. It is very difficult
to get it close. It's not just like you know,
where you're Scottie Scheffler and you're always hitting at twelve
feet or something. You're you're gonna have longer shots here,
and you know have to be a good lag putter
and take your two putt driving distance gained. I mentioned
(18:26):
that earlier stroke teeing par five. The par five is
a little bit longer and more challenging, but you got
to try to take advantage here.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
And then I always put birdier better gain.
Speaker 1 (18:35):
Just because I want to see the context of how
guys are scoring as of late. Even though I don't
expect that twenty under is going to win this thing.
It's probably gonna be mid teens. But still looked at that.
I looked at I did look at strokes gained putting
a little bit this week, and I did just general
because sometimes you know, when you're at a bent grass course,
(18:56):
you can go stroke gain bent grass putting right or
you can go Bermuda, or you can go Paspalum or
whatever it is. This is Bermuda, but it's dormant with
the Poet trips. So I just went with the overall
putting stats because I think when you're using that POA,
if you use that as a parameter, that gets a
little tricky, right, Yeah, because West Coast POA, and we
talked about this before on long shots, West Coast POA
(19:16):
is a lot more bumpy East Coast POA like you
see in the Northeast at like the Travelers Championship for instance,
in the summer at River Highlands, a lot smoother than
it is. So that's why I don't like to do
a lot of strokes gaging POA because I think that's
really deceiving and you're really getting in the weeds there.
So I just did a little general strokes game putting,
and then I did general scoring stat like I always do,
(19:37):
strokes gaging total difficult scoring conditions. Scoring is still going
to be more difficult than an average event on the
PGA Tour, even though it is going to play easier
this year.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
M Yeah, yeah, that's yeah.
Speaker 4 (19:48):
You hit on mostly everything I had as well. Did
definitely did factor in. I'm glad you brought that off.
A did factor in the strokes gain on more difficult
courses and longer courses. I factored those into.
Speaker 3 (19:57):
Well.
Speaker 4 (19:57):
It's kind of funny you brought up the putting because
we talked about off and most most. I think I
probably go less putter than anybody else on here.
Speaker 3 (20:05):
Compared to you and Matt. But I did the exact
same thing this week.
Speaker 4 (20:08):
It was a little bit, but I just wanted to
with these green complexes being so difficult, did want to
factor that in a little bit. But I just did
the basic strokes gain putting. It wasn't for much. I
just wanted to. I wanted to factor it in a
little bit and use it as a bit of a separator.
But yeah, everything else I did strokes tained off the
tea driving distance like you mentioned, and then approach opportunities
gained with these bigger green complexes. The guys that can
(20:31):
put it closer to the pin, the better it's going
to help.
Speaker 2 (20:33):
There.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
The proximity buckets you hit on I basically spread out
over a little bit. One hundred and fifty to one
to seventy five was a lot of the guys I
was looking at or longer off the tee, but then
did one seventy two hundred plus is where I focused
mainly at their strokes. Gain par five as well for me,
got to score. The par fives are tougher, but you
still got to score here, score here to go low
(20:55):
in this tournament around the green as much as I
factored in an A tournament this year, scrambling bogey avoidance
and then three put avoidance as well here on the
bigger creeds for me. Okay, that was everything we plugged in.
We're gonna take a quick break. When we come back.
Speaker 3 (21:11):
We'll go over all of our bets for the Houston Open.
Welcome back to long shots, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 4 (21:19):
Here all right, Wes. We went over the stats, we
went over the course. What made it onto your card
this week?
Speaker 3 (21:24):
My friend?
Speaker 1 (21:25):
Yeah, and Scotty Scheffler did not. I'm gonna take a
stand against him at less than three to one and
then probably be ready.
Speaker 2 (21:31):
To get hurt again.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
But that's that's just what you have to do at
this point. So didn't go that.
Speaker 3 (21:37):
Far down the board for me, and against him, you're
gonna be You're gonna bet against him.
Speaker 1 (21:40):
I'm not gonna bet against him. I'm gonna stand against
him by not betting him. You're gonna stand, yes, stand away,
I guess probably the better phrasing. Yes yeah, I'm not
getting in front of him, but but not not back
in him either. One guy I did beck, though, and
it's not really all that far down the board. Smith
Agala twenty to one and three top tens in his
(22:01):
last four, was runner up at the Century earlier this year.
He can be a little bit loose off the tee,
as we know, but he's actually gained off the tee
if you look at strokes t ee and off the tee,
which I didn't really measure in the model this week,
but I looked for context, seven of eight starts this
season he's actually gained off the tee where last year
he ranked like one hundred and seventy fourth or something
(22:21):
on the PGA Tour. So at least this driver is
behaving a little bit more, and if it is, it's
a good sign because in other areas he is terrific.
Third and strokes he game putting over the last twenty
four and thirty six around the green, he's got a
real nifty short game because he gets himself so much
in trouble sometimes off the tee that he needs to
rely on it should thrive on these faster greens. And
(22:42):
by the way, a lot of people don't know see
he Figala is actually based here in Houston and lives
in Houston, even though he's originally from California, so he's
played this a lot. I'm sure this event means a
lot to him. I think he comes in as a
different player. Remember, he did win the fort Net last fall,
so it's not like he's that guy that has.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
That jitters trying to win it for his first time.
Speaker 4 (23:02):
So was he a guy west that had been on
your radar a little bit?
Speaker 3 (23:07):
This is a little bit of a h you know,
you know, whatever the hell the term is.
Speaker 4 (23:14):
But a spoiler, spoiler, he's also on my card. He's
also on my card, which will make it a pod play.
Speaker 3 (23:18):
I guess this. It's just me and you this week,
so I'll fire.
Speaker 1 (23:21):
Oh, we do have it, Okay, I mean we do
have because I thought I was gonna have to try.
Speaker 2 (23:25):
To do that.
Speaker 4 (23:25):
But I think as I do, as I dug into
him more this week, I guess I don't. He wasn't
a guy been betting much this year and hadn't really
heavily considered him at any other tournament, So yeah, I don't.
The finish is snuck up on me a pit. I
was like, Wow, he's actually been.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Playing top ten at the Players, top ten at the
Bay Hill, and look those are those were elite fields,
you know, those were elevated fields. And now he got
a Houston, which has some good players in it. But
this is not you know that twenty million dollar plus
perse deal nine point one million by the way, for
this field of one forty four this week. But yeah,
he I I felt I was looking at him or
(24:01):
maybe Zalatorus because a lot of people do like Xalatorus
this week.
Speaker 2 (24:06):
But and I think his win is gonna come.
Speaker 1 (24:09):
I think so Tom at that tournament down in Augusta
in a couple of weeks.
Speaker 3 (24:13):
Right, Yeah, I already have a bet in on that.
I hope that happens.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
Was the separator mainly for me, And I mean I
could have bet him both, but I chose not to.
Speaker 3 (24:23):
I left Vala Taurus off the card this week.
Speaker 4 (24:24):
I just the around the green game still concerns me
a little bit with Willy z is just is it
good enough to really, you know, really go out and
win here when I think that's going to be pretty
important this week. That's where the galla kind of checks
all the boxes this week. So I like that one
a lot of I'm let you finish your card. But
I wanted to jump in on that one because he
is my favor He's probably my favorite golf of this week.
Speaker 3 (24:44):
He's the guy who using him would have done.
Speaker 1 (24:46):
Yeah, I think this is a good week to use
him if you haven't already one. I don't like the price,
but I think I cannot kind of understand where it is.
But uh, Alex Nora in at forty to one seems
like a low price on on this guy who, while
he has ten victories on the DP World Tour, hasn't
won on the PGA Tour. He's now forty one, has
not won anywhere in nearly six years. And he always
(25:08):
has a really good short game, like if you ever
see him for strokes agatting around the green or strokes
again putting, he's always very much up there if you
ever model that stuff. But the driver in the irons
have been on an uptick of Lake because the ball
striking can be very hit and miss with this guy.
But over the last eight rounds he ranks fifth and
strokes gain total and thirteenth in strokes gained approach. So
(25:29):
you know, Nora, and I think is a guy that's
going to embrace the challenge off these greens, you know,
whereas some guys I think are going to get in trouble.
He is very good when when I think the around
the green stuff is tougher. So alex norin forty to
one for me, and then another guy who's still seeking
that first win that always seems to model really high,
but man just doesn't win, as Stephan Jaeger at fifty
(25:50):
to one, top ten here in twenty twenty two, missed
two of the three cuts in Florida, but before that
he was top three at Tory Pines, was top three
in Mexico. If you go back a little bit, last
thirty six rounds, tenth strokes he had total thirteenth off
the tee. So he's a guy if they could make it,
he can get right here. Even though he had a
little minor slump in Florida.
Speaker 3 (26:10):
Jake throwout Florida and he's been he's been playing well.
I did have I did land on him for a
ben as well.
Speaker 4 (26:16):
So yeah, it's uh throwout Florida, Yeah exactly, but it
has been gross the past few weeks.
Speaker 1 (26:21):
It is Jake Knapp sixty to one, just six weeks removed,
of course, from winning his maiden PGA Tour victory at
the Mexico Open, and then the following week he actually
was fourth that PGA PG National made the cut at
Bayhill and the players, even though he's never really in
the mix in those two events. Six on approach, fifteenth
on putting last twenty four rounds. Maybe this is like
(26:42):
what Darius van Driel is spoiler alert. He was on
my card for the Indian Open, which you can catch
on around the world with Wes Reynolds wherever you get
your podcast. You know who had just won several weeks
ago at Kenya. So I'm gonna try the same thing
with Jake Knapp here. Joel Damon eighty five to one,
fifth here in twenty twenty one, ninth year in twenty
twenty two, fifth on approach last twenty four rounds, third
(27:04):
last week at the Ballast Bar for both approach and
ball striking Woods we were like out of he finished
like T forty nine. Well it's because he didn't really
gain around the greens. But you know that's such variance.
Like whenever winning doubt, Kelly, I'm always like, okay, maybe
the ball striking stays true.
Speaker 3 (27:20):
Oh yeah, and we brought it.
Speaker 4 (27:23):
I brought him up last week. Like his his iron
play has been so incredible and prochwise like I couldn't
he was. He was messing with my head last week
because it didn't I didn't end up making my card,
but it was what was it the players that his
like his stats were so good at the players it
was kind of skewing some of my models. But Jake
Knapp him, I kind of co s on him both.
(27:44):
They didn't bet either one of them, but I looked
at both of them pretty hard.
Speaker 1 (27:47):
Yeah, and Damon, look just the course experience here. I mean,
we don't have a lot of form to go on
because he've only played three years here, but two top
tens last two times he's played here.
Speaker 2 (27:57):
So I thought he made sense.
Speaker 1 (27:59):
A guy that Matt mentioned last week that I am
going to be on this week and somebody I really
like here. I think he could play very well and
it's one of my two bombs. Andrew Novak at one
hundred and ten to one, missed the cut at the Players,
but was t seventeen last week at the valast Bar.
He led the field for greens and regulation and was
fifth on approach. And if you look before, you know
(28:20):
they got the the you know, the start of the
Florida Swing, he had three top tens in a row
at Phoenix, at Mexico and at PGA National, So top
ten and strokes gained approach, top ten and strokes gained
around the green over the last twenty four rounds. So
I thought this was a big number. I know he's
not one, you know, pretty new to the tour, but
I think he could play well here. And then another
(28:41):
guy I did go with, like one real bomber because
I didn't want to go two bomber heavy, even though
I think, you know, with the with the rough being down,
bombers could have success here. A German player named Maddy
Schmid at one hundred and thirty to one eight for strokes,
gaining total ninth off the tee in seventeenth for putting
over the last eight rounds. If you look at the
Forum seven team twenty sixth and tenth in his last
(29:02):
three starts, so you know, I worry like this is
a sixth tournament in a row.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
But Matty Schmid is a guy.
Speaker 1 (29:09):
Because I looked at some of those guys that were
like really good drivers in terms of distance, So I
was like, okay, well, who are you always going to
think of the Cameron Champs and the Chris Gottterups and
the Coodie brothers both in the field this week Johnny
Vegas Jake Knapp actually did qualify Wyndham Clark, but you know,
I went in and went with the gentleman Maddy Schmid
(29:33):
from Germany at one hundred and thirty to one, and
that's my card this week so far. For the Houston Open,
I'll have a few placement markets, maybe maybe maybe going
a little bit lighter on those because last week was
a very much a disaster for me at the vals bar.
Speaker 4 (29:48):
Yeah here you the Yeah, it's a pretty light cardiff
for me overall. Right now, West had actually mentioned a
bunch of guys that I was coming back and forth
on didn't end up playing nap probably the most the
closest of all of them. I know, I'm assuming you
haven't done your your your matchup shopping yet, right, No,
you usually wait for that. Okay, So my big all right,
(30:11):
all right, this is my this is my biggest, biggest
matchup better the year so far. How would you expect
Peter Baldotti to do this week? Who is in the
field after winning last week? Yeah, and and after and
after what eight years wins?
Speaker 2 (30:29):
Because that's that guy.
Speaker 3 (30:31):
That guy ain't partying for a day or two after
that win.
Speaker 1 (30:34):
Oh boy, emotional drain. And we saw him in tears
Greenside and you know, and I mentioned the fact that
he's doing that that you know, he's part of that
player board that Jordan Spieve and Tiger and Adam Scott
a couple others six player boards.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
So he was actually, i believe recently.
Speaker 1 (30:52):
Down in the Bahamas meeting with the PIFF guy because
they're still doing those those talks with the guys that
obviously Piff owns owns that tour, so they're still doing
those communications, you know, the peace talks, like like Camp
David Accords or something between these guys. But you know,
so he's been busy, he's had a lot on his
(31:12):
plate besides playing, and now he's like Hey, I got
the Masters man, I won, so I got a two
year exemption also on the PGA Tour and and all
that and all the perks that come with it. So yeah,
I'd be interested more in fading him than backing him.
Speaker 3 (31:26):
Right exactly.
Speaker 4 (31:27):
So would you be interested in Andrew Novak minus one
oh five over Peter malnaughty because I hammered it?
Speaker 2 (31:33):
I would?
Speaker 1 (31:33):
I would because look, you know, when you look at
like an odd screen, like the don Best screen you know,
or or or the spank odds or whatever you look at,
he's matched up a lot against Joe Bramlett, uh where
Joe Bramlet's like about minus a dollar thirty And I
think that price about right. Bramlett, by the way, another
one of those bomber guys. If you want to look
at him a little bit, if you want to put
(31:55):
a bomber on the card, he's gonna be able to
grip it and rip it off the tee. So I
would lean Bramlet at that price, But that Andrew Novak
price very very.
Speaker 3 (32:03):
Stations, buddy, Yeah, go get it. I liked I like that.
Speaker 4 (32:07):
I like I like that way better than I liked
Ramble with this week, I like you just said, I
would still lean to that minus one thirty on Bramlet,
but I'll take minus one o five on a guy
I like a lot better this week in a heartbeat.
So I just wanted to start you off with that one.
That's the only Urnament matchup I half in my bat
in my on my card so far the start. But yeah,
it was I'm I'm hammering that one, trusting that I'm
(32:30):
thinking Aboutnott. He's not going to show up for another
week after that, but we'll see. It's a we're gambling there.
I don't have one single pure outright on my card
West Reynolds. What I did is to attack the winner
without market this week. I want Scottie Scheffler far and
away from me. So I did start with the Galla.
I do have a Thigala bet, but it is at
sixteen to one without Scheffler in there. And then the
(32:52):
only other one that I played this week for an
outright but not an outright without Toddy Scheffler is Kurt
Kadi Yama. He was kind of popping. I don't want
to say he was a pure top ten model. Play
kind of across all the ones I did. He was
probably anywhere from five to twentiest range for me, but
spiked in a couple of him.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
T nineteen at the Players.
Speaker 4 (33:14):
He's got some up and down results this year miscut
at the API T thirty nine, Genesis T eight at Phoenix.
Speaker 3 (33:21):
I like his game for this course too.
Speaker 4 (33:23):
I think he's going to be able to hit it
vomb it off the tee a bit. You know, he's
not a terrible round the green game. So kitty Yama
did play forty five to one in the winner with Scotty.
Speaker 1 (33:33):
There are some people out there that I do respect
that actually had Kurt kitty Yama on the card. So
I did take a look at him, and you know
that will likely be I'm guessing like a placement market
type of thing for me. But he's really good with
long irons too, which I think would serve him well
here the first time ever playing here. I don't think
that's that big of a deal. He's only missed one
(33:54):
cut in seven starts too, so you know, because he
had kind of fallen off after he on the Arnold
Palmer of course at like two hundred and one and
held off all those elite players.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
But you know, maybe, yeah.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
This would be This would be like a top twenty,
top thirty type of guy for me at least, because
I think he's starting to kind of, you know, find
a little bit of form.
Speaker 4 (34:16):
Yeah, so those two in the winner without Shuffer market
Figala and Kida Yama, and then I moved down to
the finishing position markets top twenty that I have a
top twenty bet on Figala pretty heavily. I went back
to Keith Mitchell in the top twenty market two to
one on Keith Mitchell.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (34:33):
I think Matt might have nailed it last week when
he brought up about Doug Gimmer. We worried about these
guys playing so many events in a row, and Keith
Mitchell falls into that category now coming over to play.
Speaker 1 (34:43):
Yeah, it's kind of hard to back him to win,
even though there's a couple of notables out there in
the golf betting market that did. But yeah, you know,
I don't want to necessarily fade him, but I wouldn't
back him like on an outright. I think the best
way to play him would be placements, because this guy
can hit it off the t too, and you think
would be a pretty darn good fit on this course.
Speaker 4 (35:05):
Yeah, so top twenty at two to one for him
again recent results, he's been living in that range. T
seventeen last week he was seventy third the players, but
then T nineteen at the Cognisant ten nineteen in Mexico,
T seventeen at Phoenix, had it finished T nine here
last year. So I'm going back with back with Keith
Mitchell for another week. I think this is the fourth
week in a row with met Keith Mitchell. So top
(35:26):
twenty two to one on him at Jager, then I
split bets. I played a two to one on him
on the top twenty, and then I played minus one
twenty on a top forty for Yeager. Same kind of
a little bit of the same story here as Kiddy Yama.
He was a little bit all over all over the
place of my models from you know, kind of ranging
bottom top ten into into the teams for me and
(35:49):
the models. But T nine finish here last year again
you talked about it, he kind of throwout Florida, kind
of willing to give him a break. I think at
these prices, at least a top forty bet, I think
it's pretty alid on him this week.
Speaker 3 (36:01):
So that's everything I have y now.
Speaker 4 (36:03):
I don't really don't really expect I'm going to be
adding too much more, A little bit of a lighter
card for me this week.
Speaker 3 (36:08):
I do think there's a.
Speaker 4 (36:09):
Lot of win equity at the top this week with Scheffler,
with Wyndham Clark the way he's been playing, and possibly
with zal Taurus as well. He does scare me. So
just a recap real quick winner without Scheffler market. I
played Figala in Kitty Yama and then top twenties on Figala,
Keith Mitchell.
Speaker 3 (36:27):
And Jager, a top forty on Yaeger, and.
Speaker 4 (36:30):
Then one tournament matchup for me so far Novak over Mad,
naughty Wes recap all your stuff real quick.
Speaker 2 (36:37):
Yeah, and one guy.
Speaker 1 (36:38):
I also want to mention I'll probably have an a
placement market because he did, you know, really jumped off
the page for all the around the green stuff and
the putting stuff. Aaron Baddeley, who played pretty solid last week.
He might be one I have on a placement. Maybe
not in and out right, but the out right card.
I siff Figala twenty to one, Alex and Orn forty
to one, Stephan Yeger fifty to one, Jake Knap sixty
(36:59):
to one, Ungel Damen eighty five to one in the
Two Bombs, Andrew Novak one hundred and ten to one,
Matty Schmid one hundred and thirty to one.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
All Right, I like it.
Speaker 4 (37:07):
It's got a winner this week, or you know, or
Scottie Shuffler you can.
Speaker 3 (37:11):
Win for me.
Speaker 4 (37:11):
But then I need uh see you than to finish second,
and uh, then Wes is gonna.
Speaker 2 (37:16):
Be you need him in the window Clark, you need
him in the Windom Clark spot.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
And then I'm gonna be like, man, you were really
smart and I was a complete dope.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Go ahead under your breath, Yeah exactly. Yeah, all right,
let's see, let's try to get one home this week.
Thanks for listening to everybody again. Get all the around
the world stuff uh from yesterday. You can find that
in the podcast feed all of Wes's course breakdowns at
vson dot com. Get all our bets at vson dot com.
For Wes, I'm Kelly. We'll talk to you next week.
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