Best bets for The Players

Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds preview The Players from The Players Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass. The guys give their course breakdown and stats that matter. Also, they give their best bets for the tournament. Will Scottie Scheffler's putting be there for him for a second tournament in a row?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vson's premiere golf betting podcasts.

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Here's Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Hello, welcome to Vson long Shots.

Speaker 1 (00:12):
Here on the Vson Podcast Network golf betting podcast Matt Brown,
Kelly Bidlin and Wes Reynolds coming to you for the
Players Championship. Can't wait for this on full field event
with a ton of interesting storylines as we head into
this one. But guys, as always, let's remind people what's
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(00:34):
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(00:56):
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Speaker 3 (00:58):
You get everything we do absolutely free over there.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
So guys, real quick as we as we start things off,
let's do a quick little recap and then we'll head
into what we're getting into this week. So I went
on this very podcast, and I'll put on my Dunce
cap and I said, man, I was real close to
just playing one bullet on Scotti Scheffler and just moving
on and not doing anything else other than playing one

(01:22):
bullet on Scotti Scheffler. And then I said, but I
decided not to. And so here's these four other outrights
that I ended up playing. What an idiot because Scott
Scheffler goes out and wins a tournament by five strokes.
And if I'd have just played the one bullet, like
I said, I would be sitting here all happy and Wes, listen,
We've been saying this for six months on this podcast,

(01:44):
and it's it just is what it is. And like
this got backed up by They talked to Wyndham Clark afterwards.
They talked to Shane Lowry afterwards. If Scotty Scheffler actually
has figured something out with the putter, it's it's game
over for these He's gonna win every third tournament, if
not every other tournament that he freaking teased it up on.

Speaker 3 (02:02):
It's just the way that it is.

Speaker 1 (02:03):
And they even said as much Wyndam Clark was like, dude,
if he can putt, like, it's just over. Shane Lowry
was like, he's better than all of us as it
is anyway, and like now if he putts, he's like,
I sure as hell can't beat him, you know, and
like so it's just you know, we see him.

Speaker 3 (02:19):
We'll talk about it in just a second.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
A very short odds this week, and it's very hard
to argue with it because he was already doing everything
better than everybody else except putt, and now he can
now again at least small sample size, but it looks
like he figured something out with the new putter that
he put in the bag this week. And if that's
the case, man, it's gonna be rough for those guys
out there.

Speaker 2 (02:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (02:38):
You know, the ironic thing about this whole thing is
that back at the Genesis Invitational at Riviera, Rory McElroy
was in the booth briefly on the CBS broadcast and
said that he'd like to see because he had been
through this before with some putting woes, and then he
switched to a mallet putter. He's like, I'd like to
see Scotty give the mallet a try. Well, that's what
he did. He showed up with the tailor made spider

(03:00):
tour ex mallet putter in the bag, ended up leading
the field on Sunday for strokes gain putting was fifth
overall for the week five stroke victory. And you know
that that's what's gonna happen. He's always near the top
tee to green or at the top really for all
the ball striking categories and.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
It's gonna be difficult for anybody to beat him.

Speaker 4 (03:17):
And you've seen it already reflected in the odds because
I think what was it last week, he was seven,
Rory was around nine or nine to fifty. Now you're
seeing Scotty Scheffler. Granted he's the defending champion, but he
was the defending champion well from two years ago for
the Arnold Palmer. So now he's like five point fifty
and Rory is up at fourteen to one. So just
that one week of difference seeing how he putted, and

(03:39):
there and there you go. There's a pretty widespread at
the top at the odds board. And you mentioned Wyndham
Clark was the runner up five back at two or
ten under. Shane Lowry was third. We I had Wills,
Alataorus T four just never really got there. And when
Scotty Scheffler putts like that, it's like, it doesn't matter
what you do, So you know, the clearer can census

(04:00):
number one player in the world right now in my opinion.

Speaker 1 (04:02):
Yeah, Kelly, when we when we look at this, it's
just it's we have a winner without market over at
DraftKings this week. That is just Scotti Scheffler. It's it's
like we used to get like three four golfers in
the winner without Mark. It's literally winner without just Scotti Scheffler.

Speaker 3 (04:16):
Like that's it.

Speaker 1 (04:17):
That's the only thing that just lets you know how
this guy is playing. And it's not just us, it's
all his peers on tour, it's all the announcers, it's
all everyone saying the exact same thing. He has been
the best golfer, the most consistent golfer as it was anyway,
with this giant hole in his game, and if he
is even somewhat plugged that he didn't he didn't have

(04:38):
to lead the field in putting, or he doesn't have
to be fifth overall for the tournament in putting, because
he won that by five strokes. If he can just
be level with everybody else, He's going to be right
there every single time, because he puts it twelve feet
from the cup every frigging hole. So I mean, it's
just like he starts making even half of those where
he was where he was, just leaving him short of

(04:59):
pushing over. It was, it's going to be rough on
these guys. Yeahes came over.

Speaker 5 (05:03):
I mean, it's really we were seeing him lose so
much to the field every single week, week in and
week out. So it's just I mean, it's so much
that we brought that up so much last season of
just you know, hey, if he was just around average
with the putter, how many of these how many more
tournaments would he have won? So uh yeah, I think
if you're anybody else on tour, your right to be

(05:23):
terrified from what you saw last week. I don't even
want to call it an overreaction from the books, you.

Speaker 3 (05:29):
Know, I think Wes laid it out well.

Speaker 5 (05:31):
Of what we saw, we could go to what we're
seeing this week with the pricing, I wouldn't call it
an overreaction. I'd be scared to book him at any
longer than what he's at right now.

Speaker 3 (05:39):
Too.

Speaker 5 (05:40):
After what you saw last week, No, especially knowing that
he did make an equipment change. He made an equipment change,
saw those results, Who the hell knows he really might
be able to start carrying that over week to week.

Speaker 4 (05:51):
Here he, by the way, is like two dollars over
Rory McElroy.

Speaker 2 (05:55):
That's who he's.

Speaker 4 (05:55):
Matched up against a lot of places on the odd screen,
shall we say. And he's like over two dollars just
against Rory. So you know that tells you if Rory
is the clear second choice, or at least tied for
the second choice, then what would he be in a
match up over everybody else? So there's the difference.

Speaker 5 (06:11):
Yeah, yeah, right, yeah, that's perfect. And I mean spoiler alert,
but this dude just keeps finishing top ten no matter
what if he's winning or not. I don't see any
reason to lay off that bed again this week.

Speaker 1 (06:23):
I know, yeah, I mean, even if you don't want
to play like I'm sitting here, you know, I at
least had him in one and done, so like I'm
now in the top, you know, in a big one
and done. I'm in the top you know twelve now,
which is great, But now I've burned him.

Speaker 3 (06:36):
So you know, what the hell do I do? You
know what the hell do I do now?

Speaker 1 (06:40):
As we move forward with all this, But I've got
to figure out a way to get exposure to because,
like as Wes mentioned, like you can't even really play
him in head to heads because the juice is so
ridiculously high on all this.

Speaker 3 (06:51):
So I got to figure out.

Speaker 1 (06:52):
I mean, this is where us not living in a
DFS state is is a bummer because at least with
DFS you can kind of hedge with that because you
can just go all in on him In DFS, you know,
have him in every single lineup and at least you
have some exposure to him there. But that's not the
case for us here. So we'll I will continue to
figure out how I can get some exposure to him
this week.

Speaker 3 (07:11):
I so I bet at top ten this week on him.

Speaker 2 (07:13):
I did.

Speaker 3 (07:14):
I went right back to it. It's been pretty regular
for me now.

Speaker 2 (07:18):
He'd be the only guy I'd play top ten this week. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (07:20):
Anyway too, because as we go throughout the podcast here,
if you're looking for form on players in the Players Championship,
look somewhere else, because everybody here has missed a cut
and everybody here has played bad at one point, but
Scotti Schffler is the only guy I would use in
the top ten this week.

Speaker 2 (07:36):
Everything else would be twenties, thirties, forties.

Speaker 5 (07:38):
Yeah, I was just gonna say, Wes, though, consider the
price I played him at, the more intelligent bet is
probably just laying two dollars against Rory McRoy.

Speaker 3 (07:46):
It's probably the bet I.

Speaker 2 (07:47):
Should be making until Rory gets those irons in shape.

Speaker 4 (07:51):
And I mean, he's so great off the t He's
the best in the world off the tea, and the
stats bear that out. But man, he's just been really
poor with these irons and.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
With how good Scheffler's been. And I mean you're talking.

Speaker 5 (08:03):
I mean I've laid one thirty five for him to
finish top ten, So you're talking about as two hundred
against one guy compared to one hundred and fifty guys.

Speaker 3 (08:12):
Yeah, it's probably not a bad bet. It's really probably not.

Speaker 1 (08:15):
But you know, if we look back, if we're just
trying to find I guess just some positives from last
week from other guys other than us just sitting here
and reaping praise on the number one player on the planet,
and who knows by the time this is all said
and done, who knows what we'll be saying about Scotti Scheffler.
This is like historic stuff he's doing with the ball
strike him. It's just it's and it's going on years now.

Speaker 2 (08:36):
You know.

Speaker 1 (08:37):
Look, Will's Alatorus showed well. Sam Burns showed well until
he just melted on Sunday. But there was a little
bit of pressing, I think from him because he knew
he had to go. He had to go like sixty
four to even have a shot at it. But he was,
you know, overall pretty good for.

Speaker 3 (08:54):
Him along the way. Obviously Shane Lowry pretty good along
the way.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
So there were some guys I think that despite the
fact that they got destroyed by Scotty Scheffler, who again
is the best player on the planet, that we might
can take a little bit from that as we kind
of move forward, mainly from the Saladori's standpoint, Wes, I
know you had him out right. I got in after
round one on him, and he's the first guy off
my card, and I saw everything I needed to get

(09:19):
in on him after round one. And the thing with
all of that is, I think he answered a bunch
of questions for us right, which was okay coming back
off this injury. He looks like he's getting rounded into form.
He looks like he's fully healthy. But is that going
to be the case? Is that going to stand the
test of time? How is he going to look after
he plays multiple weeks through etcetera, etcetera. Stuff like that,

(09:40):
And I think at least some of those questions got answered.
Makes me feel a lot better moving forward with Zalatoris.
I think he'll need to take some breaks here and there, obviously,
need to kind of make sure that he's not overworking himself.
But I mean, I do feel confident now putting in
tickets on Zaladoris. I'm not worried so much about that
health anymore.

Speaker 4 (09:57):
Yeah, look, I think you're not getting the best number now,
obviously because now we've all seen what we needed to see.
But there are worse bets for the Masters. I think
I think you still get him in kind of like
the lowest twenty. I'd love to see him twenty five
or better. But you know, will zelataurs he's contented at
the Masters before. Of course, a couple of years ago,
when Matsiyama ended up winning, he was the runner up.

(10:19):
But yeah, I've seen what I need to see. I
think the I think the back is fine, the injury
concerns are done. He's maybe gonna be a little bit
more diligent and more prudent, I think with the scheduling,
as you mentioned, Matt, where he just you know, hey,
I'm only gonna play a couple weeks in a row.
I'm not gonna do the sun Jam or something like
that where I play five six events in a row
and you burn yourself out.

Speaker 2 (10:39):
So he's gonna be smart about it. But I like
the way he played.

Speaker 4 (10:42):
I know he didn't really make a move on Sunday,
but nobody was going to make a move on Sunday
except the leader, So you know, I thought he played
solid pretty much over the weekend.

Speaker 2 (10:51):
Boy looked.

Speaker 4 (10:52):
He looked really good on Saturday, though at one point
when he had a four shot lead, it reminded me
of having Victor Hovland a couple of years ago, and
he had a four shot lead at Turn on Saturday
and then it didn't end up winning. But that's Bayhill,
and that's what's gonna happen. You're gonna blow leads there
and then the weather's gonna pick up and if one
guy gets out ahead of it, like Scotty Scheffler did.

Speaker 1 (11:12):
There, you go, yeah it is and and listen, we'll
we'll we'll talk, you know, about other players other than
Scotty Scheffler. But it is it is worth noting that
it's if he putts like he did this past week,
we're probably gonna be looking at the leaderboard with Scotty
Scheffler at the top again. I mean, it's just there's
just there's very little evidence out there to say that

(11:33):
he won't be one of the top guys ball striking,
that he won't be one of the top guys driving,
that he won't be one of the top guys around
the grand There's just not a lot of evidence out
there that say that he's gonna that he's gonna slip up.
So we'll see how it all plays out.

Speaker 3 (11:47):
But let's go ahead.

Speaker 1 (11:48):
We move on to the Players Championship. This is at
TPC Sawgrass, probably the most famous course outside of Augusta
over in the United States, certainly the most famous hole
in all of golf, with the Island Green. You've seen
it a million times if you've ever watched any golf broadcast,
so you at least have that as far as TPC
Sawgrass reference for you as you head into this if

(12:10):
you aren't familiar other than that. But it is a
very dangerous course, as we just mentioned, volatility going to
be high, tons of water, tons of sand, and so
we're going to be putting emphasis, I imagine on a
lot of stuff that you know, we might be having
a consensus model this week, unlike last week where we
had guys all over the place with everything. But Wes,
let's go ahead and get into TPC Sawgrass and what

(12:31):
we're going to be looking at here from this course.

Speaker 4 (12:33):
Yeah, par seventy two, seventy two, seventy five, so not
one of the longer courses on the tour. It is
a peat dye design, so look some carryover if you
want to look at some of the other peat dies
Harbor Town, River Highlands, some of the other Florida courses
as well. So there's a few correlations here at TPC Sawgrass,

(12:54):
but not a very easy course. It's been hosting this,
by the way since nineteen eighty two, largest person tour
at twenty five million dollars. I don't know if you'd
call it the fifth Major because there are some great
players that aren't here in the field of course this week,
but still one of the best fields of the year,
And you get a lot of a erratic form here,
like I was saying, like Scotti, Scheffler won last year,

(13:15):
the year before he was fifty fifth, and then the
year before he missed the cut, So every player has
had a period of miss cuts here or bad finishes,
So you're not going to get that predictive form like
you get at some other events where it's like okay,
top twenty, top ten, third, thirty six, where they like
make the cut every single year, So you're not going
to get that. In terms of the layout, like I said,
Par seventy two seventy two to seventy five ninety two

(13:37):
bunkers fifth most on tour and the most water holes
on tour, sixteen on tour, of course, led by the
famous Island Green, the par three at seventeen, A lot
of waste areas. No holes, by the way, go in
the same direction. They all go in opposite directions. There's
left dog legs, there's right dog legs. The rough is
going to be about three and a half inches thick

(13:59):
over Rye. The greens used to be Bermuda here, but
the bremut is pretty dormant, so it's actually one hundred
percent POA and they're going to be fast thirteen on
the stemp. Now, the POA here, by the way, is
going to be different than what you see it like
Pebble Beach or at Tory Pines on the West coast
where it's really really bumpy. The East coast POA especially
in the northeast, But we just so happen to have
it in Florida here, very very smooth, So you know,

(14:22):
you get some undulations in the green, but no real bumps, no,
you know, because you'll have some of those putts that
look dead online, like at Tory Pines or Pebble and
all of a sudden it hits a bump and it
goes like five feet by the left, So you don't
really have that here. Par threes very short, but very difficult,
especially the seventeenth. The double bogie rate I read was

(14:43):
eight percent, which you know, that means a lot of
balls in the water there. Par four's three of them
are under four hundred, three of them are over four
to seventy. The longest five are also the toughest. Par
fives are actually relatively nondescript here. Three of them are
like around five forty five point fifty somewhere around there,
so reachable in two. But you do have water on

(15:05):
all these part five, so be wary. But you burdy
your better rates pretty high here. So when I looked
at correlated courses PG National, Nisbrook Bay Hill in Florida
obviously make a lot of sense. Any of the Pete
Dye designs PGA West Harbor Town, TBC River Highlands, a
little bit of TPC South Wind in Memphis. And you've

(15:27):
had some correlation too with Wilei, which hosts the Sony Open,
and also Sedgefield which hosts the Windom. So a lot
of different ways you can go in terms of a
course breakdown here.

Speaker 1 (15:37):
Yeah, it is as you mentioned pretty much all these guys.
You can kind of go down the list here. It's
you know, there are miscuts along the way right no
matter who it is.

Speaker 3 (15:47):
So you look.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
You mentioned Scotty who won and then was T fifty
five the year before the year before that he was cut.
And you can take a look at a guy like
Victor Hovelin who's had a lot of success here T
three last year ten down the year for the year
before that he was cut. You look at Rory's win
was bookended by cuts and so it's just you know,
it's just a very tough course, but it plays out very,
very tough. I will point this out as well, Wes.

(16:11):
You talk about the dormant dormancy of the Bermuda, there's
a lot of people out there. You're telling me, oh,
Pete die courses and Bermuda this. Yeah, I mean like
it's it's it doesn't grow this time of year. It's
poa trivialis which is different than that Poe nouwa that
we have out here on the West coast, and so
it's a different form of POA and guys that have
played the course over there this time of year whenever

(16:34):
the when the Bermuda is not out says it's basically
some of the best putting conditions you can possibly have,
which even is the playing field really when it comes
down to it, right.

Speaker 4 (16:42):
They're just fast, They're very fast greens and they get
faster over the weekend.

Speaker 1 (16:47):
So one of the things to consider there. Also, if
you're looking back over tournament history, I wouldn't really factor
in much before twenty nineteen, because that's when this this
when this tournament moved from being in.

Speaker 3 (16:57):
May to March.

Speaker 1 (16:59):
And that is a big deal because if you look,
as Kelly can tell you, we're talking about Florida, the
weather is different in May than it is in March. Also,
the whole reason that the Bermuda isn't grown up right
now is because it's it will be there in May,
it's not there in March. So there's all these different
factors here in which Kelly, you know, I don't know.

Speaker 3 (17:16):
I didn't.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
I didn't use course correlation like at all, Like I
don't care like you know, I mean just with the
way that the uniqueness of this course, the way that
the weather can come and go, all the stuff that
goes on with this, Like I didn't use any of
that stuff, like none whatsoever. And I didn't go back
further than twenty nineteen. And honestly I didn't really factor
in much like prior to twenty twenty one.

Speaker 5 (17:36):
Yeah, same here, there was very very little I looked at.
I don't I completely agree. I don't think you should
be looking at anything before before this moved to March
where we're at now, because I mean, you're talking different
green services. Like you guys talked about, it's completely different,
different grass and then I mean some I mean some
even for people that have beended this course or played

(17:57):
in Florida, or I mean something you just don't think
about in Florida, like the prevailing wind factor in direction
which just changed, it changes completely from Me to March,
and it makes it makes this play just incredibly differently
for these guys. And we've seen it be more difficult
since they you know, since they switched it to the
current dates. So yeah, I think if you're definitely, if

(18:18):
you're looking at that stuff, I wouldn't go back to
when it was being played in May. And yeah, like
like you guys both talked about, we've seen very little
correlation here between between winners and now they've done the past,
and you know, a lot of that has to do
with how much how much waters on the damn course,
And you're just gonna find it every now and then,
and that's gonna, you know, it's gonna skyrockets you right down.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
The leaderboard ever since.

Speaker 4 (18:40):
By the way, and you mentioned the move back from
May to March back in May, and when it was
in May, you had a few bombs hit here. You know,
you had Seawu Kim win here. You had Web Simpson
win here at Triple Dead Ditch, you had Tim Clark
win here, Martin Kaimer at big prices.

Speaker 2 (18:55):
Ever since it's gone to twenty nineteen.

Speaker 4 (18:57):
Obviously, the twenty twenty was canceled due to COVID nineteen
after the first round. Twenty nineteen, Rory McElroy wins here
at fourteen to one. Twenty twenty one, Justin Thomas wins
here at about twenty to one consensus. Twenty twenty two,
Cameron Smith wins here at thirty to one. Last year,
Scottie Scheffler at ten to one. What does that tell you?
All class players and all major champions that have won here,

(19:18):
so you know, be a little wary. I mean that
doesn't mean maybe don't put one or two bombs at
the bottom, but more often not and certainly every ever
since it's moved back to March, it's been a world
class player that's won here.

Speaker 2 (19:30):
You know what.

Speaker 5 (19:30):
Yeah, yeah, we were talking before the show about how
it just I haven't had much success here. I forgot
twenty twenty I would have won.

Speaker 3 (19:38):
We went I had a winner there.

Speaker 2 (19:39):
Do you have maciama, I had Jakie.

Speaker 3 (19:41):
I forgot I had Dekey. He was clearly gonna win the.

Speaker 4 (19:44):
He was nine to under sixty three on Thursday, and
then the world went upside down.

Speaker 1 (19:49):
Yeah, I agree you you definitely would have gotten that.
On one last thing too, is just about the difference
between between March and May. Obviously also just the weather
there in Florida. Right, we're talking like highs in the
high seventies right now, but the lows get into kind
of like the low sixties, high fifties, whereas in May
it never gets that. We're talking like seventies for the low,

(20:10):
in mid eighties for the high. And so the course,
like you know, as we're talking about just is that's
different conditions as well, right, I mean, how much the
water evaporates, how quickly the water evaporates, all that are
so's so there's just tons that makes this much different.
So I wouldn't just go past twenty nineteen. So I
didn't even go past twenty twenty one honestly when we
were doing all of that stuff with everything all right,

(20:33):
So that's kind of a lead into what we always do,
which we're talking about the stats that mattered to us
here on this podcast. And you know, guys, I think
this is as we talked about with the water in
the sand, I think it's pretty obvious to all of
us that it was off the tea and off the
t accuracy probably was very high for for everyone. That's

(20:55):
why I said, like, I don't know if our models
are going to come out exactly the same this week,
but I imagine pretty much much all of the stuff
that you really point to to have success at this course,
you can't really zig and zag. I think you like
zig and zag with maybe how you want to bet
this tournament, but I don't know if you can really
zig and zag with how you you value you know

(21:15):
what's important at this course, because again with all that water,
with all those bunkers, with three and a half inch rough,
it's basically like keep the ball dry, don't spray it
into the three and a half inch rough. It's we
talk about second shot golf courses all the time. This
is not that at all, Like this is a first
shot golf course. Like you cannot be wet, you cannot
be in the three and a half inch rough, Like
this is very straightforward. Probably gonna see a lot of

(21:36):
less than driver here as well with some of these guys,
just to make sure that they do all of that
and so heavy emphasis on that. And then once you
get into the fairway, how close can you put it
to these very small greens? I mean, Kelly, Outside of that, yeah,
you sprinkle in the other stuff, the scrambling and the
around the green and all that, but like, really it's
kind of that, right, Yeah.

Speaker 5 (21:58):
I think there's uh, yeah, when we get to when
we get to my card, I will say there's there's
some stats that I think a matter here, you know,
kind of everywhere around the course. But yeah, I mean yeah,
for the most part of who's gonna win this who's
gonna win this event, it's the guy who's gonna do
that the best match. Yes, keep it out of the water,

(22:18):
put it in the fairway, and put that second shot
close to the pit. I'm with you there are I mean,
I do think you look off the t that's what
you're looking for. Approach matters here and so much we
talk about that every single week, Like around the green
does matter here. There's a lot of bunkers. We've seen
the scrambling around the green be important in the past.

(22:38):
But yeah, I mean, hey, if you I joke about off,
but if you get a guy who just puts in
the fairway and second shot you're on the green, like
you've got something going already.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
Well, I mean, as we're putting together the model, I
mean there are other things you can plug in. I
you know, in a mixed condition model. You can put
in hardcore, hard scoring condition courses, you can put in
short courses and all that, and that all played into
when I was going. So I don't want to like
oversimplify everything here, but I mean, at the end of
the day, all of that is fine and dandy, but
if you hit it in the water twice, it's over.

(23:08):
If you if you're if you're you know, six times
over in the three and a half inch rough over
the course of a round, it's over for you. And
so I think, as we look at this, it's really
just how we waited the stuff I think in our
model and how we went about it from the mis
mixed condition stuff because again like I yeah, I'm talking
about the tea stuff. I'm talking about approach stuff. But
I did do like super short term off the team

(23:30):
stuff to like kind of see who is like who's
coming in feeling really good off the tea right now,
right Like, so I kind of like did all of that.
I mean, that's really how I tried to zig as
opposed to you know, zig and zag where all these
people and maybe I can find some value, but that
is really all I did.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
Differently.

Speaker 4 (23:45):
Yeah, but the thing I think in terms of starting
with your base and you just hit on it there. Yeah,
of course, got to start with approach here. You got
to hit your irons really really well here. And everybody
that's won since this has moved back to March. As
we mentioned just a few minutes ago, they were six
or better in the field for their winning weeks.

Speaker 2 (24:03):
So you know, Rory Smith.

Speaker 4 (24:06):
Scheffler, these guys at Thomas, you know, hit the irons
really well this week.

Speaker 2 (24:10):
So I think approach obviously is a good place to start.

Speaker 4 (24:13):
I think maybe good drives gained also for an off
the tee could be another way to use it if
you don't want to use sg OTT because you don't
get a lot of drives over three hundred yards here
because the guys club down it's a little bit cooler
obviously in marchdown in Florida than it is in May,
so fairways could be a little softer. They're maybe not
as firm or fast necessarily, so you're gonna club down

(24:34):
a little bit. You're gonna take iron off the tee,
you're gonna take a three metal off the tee or
a hybrid. So the accuracy is actually, I think just
a little bit below sixty percent here, So good drives gained,
I felt was a good way to start.

Speaker 2 (24:49):
Big numbers. Do Look here.

Speaker 4 (24:50):
I know the winner is gonna be double digits under par,
but that doesn't mean you're gonna have circle. You're not
gonna have some some squares, shall we say on the scorecard,
because bogie avoidan I think is important here. It's twenty
four percent worse here in terms of bogies than it
is for the tour average.

Speaker 2 (25:07):
So you got these tight.

Speaker 4 (25:08):
Lines off the tee, you got the water, you got
the ruff, as you guys mentioned, so avoiding those bogies
I think very important. Keeping it in play. Did a
little bit of scrambling slash around the green combo because
you sometimes get some overlap there. But not easy to
scramble here either, because you've got some It's not like
Bayhill last week, where it's all like kind of thick

(25:29):
ruff excuse me, around the green. But you have that
thick rough, but you also have tight chipping lies here,
so it's very difficult. And plus the bunkers around there,
so you've got unpredictable lies. So I did do that
in term and then some stuff not really heavily modeled,
just looking at for context, par four scoring four fifty

(25:50):
to five hundred three of the last five holes or
of that variety, and that's what's going to decide this tournament.

Speaker 2 (25:55):
So I looked at that.

Speaker 4 (25:55):
I looked at strokesy and par five, who can take advantage?
Like I mentioned, par five a little bit shorter in
terms of putting. Excuse me because because it's poetryv like
you mentioned, and Bermuda is dormant, I didn't really go
specifically or it's like Strokes Gang Bermuda or Strokes Gang
bent Grass. I just went overall putting bass just to

(26:18):
see who's putting the ball well. But I didn't heavily
weight it. I never really do with putting. And then
a couple other contexts. I did a little pete dye
history just to see, you know, the guys, and it's
the usual suspect Scheffler can't lay Connor Schaffle, Harmon. I
think we're the top five over the last thirty six rounds.
And then you could do Sgott, you could do strokes,
game ball striking if you want to count approaching off

(26:41):
the tee.

Speaker 2 (26:41):
So that's basically where I went here.

Speaker 1 (26:44):
Yeah, Kelly, the cut last year one over, so it
over par will likely get you into the weekend on
this tournament. So don't freak out. If your guy is
you know, sitting even or you know, maybe just one
under something like that, that is likely going to get
him into the weekend. And if you have any sort
of placement, bet he can try to do something for

(27:05):
you over there on the weekend when it's all said
and done. But yeah, I mean, as as West mentioned,
just you know, the big scores are definitely there. You
had a guy in Taylor Pindrith just like, you know,
just to kind of bring into light what this course
could do five under and round one, eight over and
round four right like, so like you know, a a

(27:25):
thirteen stroke difference between his best round and his worst round,
and so that that's just lurking for anyone that ends
up hitting it in the water. And you know, it
can happen a couple of times around if you get
a little bit sloppy and so just uh, just to
embrace that as well as we head into it.

Speaker 5 (27:43):
Yeah, it is, it gets funky. I mean high variance
when we talk. We talked about the we talk about
the water, we talk about the weather. It's going to
lead to higher variance results. And this is uh, you know,
it's interesting to say if you're betting, if you've been
finishing positions, it's this is one of those few tournaments
I think where you're not you know, it's gonna be
as much as you rooting for your guy to go

(28:03):
low as some of the others are ahead of him
blowing up, right, which that is that is gonna happen.

Speaker 3 (28:08):
That that is.

Speaker 5 (28:09):
Something that will happen every single every single round. So yeah,
that that is definitely something to factory when you're doing
your handicapping this week. Just a couple other notes I
wanted to throw out there of the uh, you know weather,
you know, third week in a row, I'm gonna say it,
but weather, weather, weather, this this is a I yes,
I have bets on my account.

Speaker 3 (28:28):
There's a couple of others.

Speaker 5 (28:29):
I'm waiting to make a little bit just to see
what this Friday forecast looks like a little bit more.

Speaker 3 (28:33):
It does look like the wind.

Speaker 5 (28:35):
As of right now when we record on Tuesday evening,
it looks like this is gonna be a little bit
more gusty on Friday. So waiting to see on that
a little bit, uh, to see if that affects any
kind of you know, wave advantage or anything like that.

Speaker 3 (28:49):
Uh, that we get out of.

Speaker 5 (28:50):
There, and then you know, just as as for as
much as we talk about our modeling and stuff like that,
just you know, I think we narrowed some stuff down
last week. This was really the first, like you kind
of hit on it there, This is really the first
week that I was really leaning more on a last
twelve round, last twelve round model than anything.

Speaker 3 (29:10):
I do think that is a little.

Speaker 5 (29:12):
Bit core specific in what we see what we're seeing here,
especially with the off the t stuff that you mentioned,
But I think just all around this is this is
the time of year where I start to lean more
on the last twelve, last twenty four than further back
in the last thirty six, last fifty round models.

Speaker 1 (29:28):
Yeah, it's however you want to I did sixteen, you
can do twelve, you can do whatever. Yeah, it just
like a little bit more short term stuff for me.
I actually just did sixteen because I wanted one tournament
before they got to Florida to kind of see like, hey,
is this guy like is this guy doing it everywhere?

Speaker 2 (29:45):
Right?

Speaker 3 (29:46):
Like I just I wanted to mix in just a
little bit of that.

Speaker 1 (29:48):
But yeah, I mean if you went to twelve, then
you're basically you're hyper focused on the Florida sow English.
Also is a strategy here with this as well. All right,
guys are gonna take a quick break. When we come back,
we will tell you what our models spit out. Also
a new little segment here on the podcast. We're talking
about like this guy or that guy who We're going
to talk about some of the guys that maybe we

(30:08):
didn't end up on our card, but maybe we like
them a little bit better than some other guy and
maybe that interests you in your betting market or from
a DFS perspective as well. Stick around, coming back, Welcome
out to long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the
Vson Podcast Network. Guys, a reminder Vson dot Com slash
champ Week c h A mp W E E K.

(30:31):
It's gonna get you Vson Pro access every single thing
we do. So you get all that best bet stuff,
you get the betting split stuff, you get all of
the articles that everybody's writing for every single sport out there,
you get the college basketball stuff, and as we know,
very important as we head up through Championship Week. Here
you get all of that through the end of Championship
Week absolutely free. It is our free preview for the

(30:52):
vsonprosubscription VSA dot com slash champ Week if you want
to take advantage of that very special announcement here on
the podcast. This is where normally we'd be heading around
well with Wes Reynolds.

Speaker 3 (31:07):
But guess what we are one there's not a tournament
to do that anyway.

Speaker 2 (31:11):
Yeah, Wes is grounded this week.

Speaker 1 (31:13):
Yes, yes, not a nothing. Nothing happening this week with
that anyway. However, an exciting new announcement here. We are
all we are. We're here for you guys, We're here
for the people. We're getting feedback from you out there
saying like, hey, listen, actually like betting these alternate tournaments.
So can we let go a little bit more in
depth of that and then some of you say, hey,
I'll leave at the PGA tour. I don't care about

(31:35):
what's going on in Dubai or South Africa or all
that or whatever. So guess what We're gonna please both
of you because we are now going to pop that out,
make a separate podcast for Wes and his around the
world ventures here so live stuff, DP World Tour stuff,
any of the other stuff that ends up getting on
his betting card this week is going to be a
separate podcast for all of you that are interested in

(31:57):
all of that. And hey, if you're not interested in that,
you just want to be GA stuff, well this is
the podcast for you.

Speaker 3 (32:02):
So looking forward to that, and Wes, you go a
little bit deeper.

Speaker 1 (32:05):
Listen, We're not gonna take up a ton of people's
time with all of this, but you'll go a little
bit deeper than we have been with all of that.
And of course they can always head to besta dot
com for the full full breakdown of everything.

Speaker 4 (32:16):
Yeah, because one thing I will say with a lot
of these, of course, alternate tour events, alternative PGA tour,
it's a little bit harder. And you guys know this too,
incorporating like some of the stuff from the DP World Tour,
it's harder to get data. So a lot of betting
that is a little bit of gut and a little
bit of market reading and maybe reading previous form because

(32:37):
you have a lot of new players on these tours.
You have some got times where guys from the PGA
Tour are going to go over and play and you know,
and whatnot. On the DP World Tour, and then with
live you just don't have a lot of like course
history necessarily because they're always adding new events. So when
you look when you find stats for that tour, by
the way, it's really amazing. It's just like your basic

(32:59):
stuff like in regulation or how many fair ways you
hit or something like that. And you know, I I
guess shot link is proprietary to the PGA Tour. But
when you have an eight hundred billion dollar fun maybe
you can create your own shot link.

Speaker 2 (33:11):
I don't know that just a suggestion, just a suggestion.

Speaker 1 (33:15):
It seems like you should be able to do it better, right, literally,
seem like you should be able to do it better.

Speaker 2 (33:20):
I mean, it's.

Speaker 4 (33:22):
Hard, It is hard finding data for that stuff. So
a lot of my live betting, I'll give I'll let
the listeners know and the viewers know.

Speaker 2 (33:28):
It's gut. It's basically gut, you know on some of
these things.

Speaker 4 (33:32):
And sometimes the gut pays off, and sometimes the gut
your way down in the standings stepping up.

Speaker 3 (33:37):
P I. F. West just called you out. Shout out
those those dollars we need, we need some stacks on tours.

Speaker 4 (33:42):
Come on, I won't I won't be going over there
anytime soon, so I'm not as worried about my safe Yeah,
I mean.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
Listen, can't throw a couple of satellites in the sky
like like have the most accurate ball thing in the
history of the world whatever, Like you know, you.

Speaker 3 (33:58):
The sky launched them with a rock.

Speaker 1 (34:00):
You know where the ball is going before the club
even hits, like you're like like latellite predicts it.

Speaker 2 (34:04):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (34:04):
I was watching the playoff, of course, when we had
Neiman down in Maya Coba, that thing that went the
distance with Sergio and they're given like, okay, he's this
far from you know, from the green or whatever, but
they didn't have it like exact, and one of the
core supporters like, yeah, I walked it off. He's about
fifty yards behind like usually with that data. You know,
we're so used to watching PJ Tour and like jim

(34:26):
Nant's going, what's he got, Dottie one to the front gym,
two hundred and two to the flag?

Speaker 1 (34:32):
Yeah, right there, yeah, right there, exactly you know exactly
what club he's pulling. Like they're talking it over. They're
going between a seven iron and a six yeah, you know,
like all the stuff.

Speaker 4 (34:42):
And this one they're just guessing. I'm like, it's kind
of important information.

Speaker 3 (34:46):
Well, Bobby's roughly about forty paces off of the bars there.

Speaker 1 (34:51):
They're they're sitting there like they're like, oh shit, that's
not even his ball. That's like, oh, never mind, go
that's that's not even his ball. Oh man, he's playing
it completely my bad guys, you know.

Speaker 5 (35:01):
And for the fans out there, don't worry with around
the world. With Wes Reynolds continuing, the power ranking of
where we will do, future remotes will also continue. I'm
looking at you out, yeah, looking at you.

Speaker 4 (35:13):
Yeah, I know, we're looking at Mauritius is later in
the year, and then of course our favorite over there
in the in the Swiss Alps. So and yeah, next
week they are back. They are back in Singapore next
week Community Peed World Tour.

Speaker 1 (35:27):
I love it all right, guys, So we talked about
what ended up on our board. Listen, Scotty Cheff were
just a ridiculously high favorite plus five fifty. Next guy
at r is Rory over at DraftKings at twelve to one,
then a big jump to Xander at twenty, Hoveland at
twenty two, jt Is at twenty two, Max homa is
at twenty five, Can't Lay is at twenty eight, as
is Marikala, and then everybody is thirty here longer after

(35:50):
that over at DraftKings, and we're talking some big names.
We're talking Zalad, Taurus and Speed and Matsuyama, Fleetwood, Lowry, Burns, Handley,
all these guys out there at at thirty or longer.
So it will be interesting to see how these players
ended up working their way into our betting card, or
if they did not at all. So, Kelly Biblin, why
don't we go ahead kick things off with you here,

(36:11):
my friend who ended up making your betting card.

Speaker 5 (36:14):
Yeah, we talked about this last week, Matt of You know,
we use all these different sites around our different models,
and last week it was a little peculiar. I thought
of just how many different names were kind of landing,
you know, in my top fifteen, top twenty range, depending
on the site, depending on the site, and a lot
of stuff was lined up. Oh man, do I got

(36:35):
a whole lot of consensus names across the board this week.
So hopefully that means good things. But you know, with
the players being the players, you know, we might just
be it might just be riding some outrights. Nope, but
we can get a dart home more outrages for me
this week than you normally see. I think the water
involved it makes it a little bit tougher for me
to sink a lot of money into the finishing position marks,

(36:56):
just because it's so tough to watch these guys blow
up sometimes. But you know, taser own, I think there's
some longer I think there are some long shots that
you can you could play in those markets to a
little safer if you're worried about the win equity. And
that's what I did with a couple of these guys.
I will start it off with a guy that I
have bet a lot this season.

Speaker 3 (37:13):
That would be one Xander Schoffley.

Speaker 5 (37:15):
He was a top three bottle play every time all round,
and I don't I don't really know if that's gonna
change anytime soon. The way he's a way he's hitting
the irons, and the way that we factor in approach
into our models as heavily as we do. I mean,
it was Scotti Scheffer number one all round. I think
that's probably safe to save for everybody on this podcast,
and Hander Schoffley was two or three on every everything

(37:37):
else that I ran.

Speaker 3 (37:38):
So playing really well recently t.

Speaker 5 (37:41):
I mean, I don't even have to go through a
T twenty five API, T three Genesis.

Speaker 3 (37:44):
It's a lot.

Speaker 5 (37:44):
There's one two tournaments he's finished outside the top ten
in this tur this season, ten nineteen here last year
then it was three straight misscuts and a second and
twenty eighteen. So I think he's a perfect example of
what we talked about earlier, where you can have some
success here and then you could go through a drought
of three years of missing the cut.

Speaker 1 (38:02):
So let's let's see the season on Zander for a second,
because as you're you're right, like, I mean, if I
look at my models, and I imagine it's gonna be
the same with Wes. I mean, he is third in
one of the models. I ran second in one of
the other models, second in one of the other and
these are all on different sites, and so this is
all you know, coming out like that, Wes.

Speaker 3 (38:23):
But he didn't end up on my car? Did he
end up on your card?

Speaker 2 (38:25):
He did so.

Speaker 4 (38:27):
Two thirds of a pod play because I was I
was down. I was like, Okay, one of these three
is gonna end up. It's gotta be Xander, It's gonna
be Can't Layer, It's gonna be Hoveland. Xander was higher
on the model, but I considered all three. But look,
I think for what Kelly said for top tens to
start this year, solid record on Pete Dye, and I

(38:47):
just think he's been a little bit more consistent than
those other two guys that I mentioned. I was considering
kind of near below that Scheffler Rory Tier, if you will.

Speaker 1 (38:57):
So are we not at all worried about the win
equity because like for me, I can't put him on
the card until I see the dude win. Like at
these it's like, so I'm fine with the top five,
I'm fine with the top ten. I'm fine with playing
him in head to heads because most likely he's gonna
be lurking in that top ten whatever, but like the
dude just can't close, and like I it it pains

(39:20):
me that I can't put him on the card when
I said, literally three different sites, he's no lower than
third in three different algorithms that I with different data
points that are that are being put in. But like,
I just don't know. I feel like I'm I feel
like I'm lighting money on fire.

Speaker 3 (39:35):
I feel I.

Speaker 4 (39:37):
Totally get it, Matt, because I actually had this conversation
with Mitch Moss vson, host of a co host of
Follow the Money, and we were just talking because we
were you know, we both in dad Zala Taurus and
Ed Bayhill and just kind of updating we're down for
that blackjack event, and you know, we were saying, you know,
like Rory, he's just priced so high for a guy

(39:58):
that doesn't win as much as he should.

Speaker 2 (40:00):
And we dealt with this.

Speaker 4 (40:01):
Was Xander Schoffle too, because you know, Mitch Boss finally
came out and said, hey, I'm done with Shafley, you know,
like last year, Like I'm done, he just doesn't win enough.
I'm starting to get that too, because I even had
that I gotta quit Cameron young maybe until he wins
once and you know, some win equity does matter. I think,
I think to a lot of people, and I actually
have a couple other guys on my card that do

(40:22):
have better win equity, but I did. I did go
with showfle at twenty four to one this week.

Speaker 1 (40:27):
Yeah, And this isn't to like, this isn't to like
pooh pooh, y'all's pig. I'm just curious because like again
for me, it's a it's a mental exercise for me
every week when I go through this, because like I
am arguing with like every single thing that I said
is important.

Speaker 2 (40:41):
If you feel like the numbers are lying, yeah.

Speaker 1 (40:43):
Yeah, yeah, Like I'm arguing like because of just antecgodal
stuff and all of that. It's just I don't know,
it's like it's I think it's good to kind of
talk through like this. I mean, there's other things that
just like shouldn't bother me, but like you know, coaching change,
he moved now, he living, he made the move to Florida,
which honestly you think would be better, but like why

(41:04):
did he There's just all kinds of stuff.

Speaker 2 (41:05):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (41:06):
It's just like for me with with all that. So anyway,
that's my that's it's a good conversation to have, though, Yeah, no.

Speaker 5 (41:11):
It is, And I think that's the I think that
backs up the reason of why we stress the importance
of playing the finishing positions and matchup markets and stuff
like that.

Speaker 3 (41:19):
Now did I do that this week?

Speaker 2 (41:20):
No?

Speaker 5 (41:20):
I only played it out right now, But just because
the ball could be getting wet.

Speaker 3 (41:24):
Here, I will.

Speaker 5 (41:25):
And this is not a I don't think it's a
counter argument at all, because look, you guys, you guys
are right. I mean, the win equity is just is
not what it should be with the guy as as
skilled as he is. The I do think when I
look at this course though, like this has got Morikawa
Shoftley kind of written all over it, of like what
is a design of course that these guys should win at?

(41:46):
Like these this is the one right like where it's okay,
you don't don't have to be super long off the team,
but you gotta be accurate off the team. You've gotta
be great on approach, you gotta have a solid all
around game. And both of those guys kind of fit
that mold. And we I mean, you know, neither one
really had a ton of success here. But no, I
hear you on the way, you know, on the win equity,

(42:07):
But no, he's on the card. And if you're up,
if you don't like that one, oh boy, wait like
to get to some of the other ones I have
want Shane Lowry this week he has been tearing up Florida.

Speaker 2 (42:19):
He is.

Speaker 3 (42:20):
I am on him outright only as well.

Speaker 5 (42:23):
He was a top ten bottle play like I said,
did a lot shorter tar models, so I shouldn't be
much of a surprise. He's been tearing it up in Florida.
Third at the API, T four at the Cognizant, playing
really well there. Look past few years here T thirty five,
thirteen eight, so you know, actually some pretty consistent finishes
out of him recently. Now let's get back to that

(42:43):
win equity, guys, Tom Hogy, he's on the card this week.
He's on the card seventy to one. Look, man, he
was often we often bring him up with just the
approach stats big an outlier, so so much with him,
but man, he's putting it together recent four wise here
as well, A T twelve, API T twenty eight of
the Cottons and the eighth of the Genesis T He's

(43:04):
seventeen of the Phoenix T six that the crazy Pebble
this year, like that, he's been playing well this year,
And I actually think I've probably cost myself money ignoring
him a little bit this year, Matt, because we've talked
about those outlier approach stats kind of skewing on models
sometimes and man sitting down to in and actually seeing

(43:27):
what he's done this season made me have that recrediting
feeling of man I should have been springing to memoir.

Speaker 1 (43:33):
Yeah, I mean, just so people don't have to hear us, like,
you know, say the same stuff over and over again.
So I don't have outright, but I have, like I am.
I told you, I'm I actually went a different route
this week. I'm trying something new and so I invested
barely heavily in placement market stuff based on upside of guys,
and so so I'm not playing Tom Hogy top forty

(43:54):
because like, if Tom Hogy plays good, then like I'm
playing Tom Hogy top ten and our top twenty, right
like whatever, And so so I went that route with
So I'm taking these guys where I think there's volatility,
and I'm just playing that in a placement market as
opposed to an outright deal.

Speaker 3 (44:09):
And so I have a top ten on Hoki. And
it's a lot for the stuff that you said.

Speaker 1 (44:13):
But you start to go if you just look at
super recent form, like we're talking about like last sixteen rounds,
which should be most people's last four tournaments, Like if
you make it the cut, if you made the cut,
should be their last four tournaments. You look at Tom Hogy.
He is eighth in this field in strokes gain total.
He is seventh in this field in tea green, forty
fourth off the tee, first in approach, third in ball striking.

Speaker 3 (44:36):
So like all of those things.

Speaker 1 (44:38):
Now he's terrible around the green, but hopefully the approach
and all the other stuff like keeps it toward the
ball's not off the green, and so we don't have
to worry with all of that. And so you know,
it's there's all that. So yeah, that just to say
I'm on the same play. I understand when it comes
to like, yeah, there's stuff we don't like around the green.
He's one hundred and eighteenth in this field the last

(44:58):
sixteen rounds, right, its one hundred and fifth and short name,
I get it. We know the weaknesses, but the other
streaks are so high that if he can avoid even
having to do that stuff, or having to do it
very very few times over the course of the rounds,
then I think Togi could spike.

Speaker 5 (45:12):
Yeah, this is so it just to clear up my bets.
It is I Look, I did play an outright on him.
I think in most tournaments I wouldn't and would just
play a top twenty on him. What I did was
sprinkle a little on the outright. I played a top
twenty on him pretty heavily. I was thinking the same
way you were, though, mad of the it's HOGI and
then one name I'm about to get to, which you
might have in your.

Speaker 3 (45:30):
Card as well.

Speaker 5 (45:32):
It was that same thinking I decided to go top
twenty instead of top ten, but completely understanding it's the
you know, the guys that you're not really sure can win,
but if they spike, you know, put putter gets put together,
maybe they have a pretty good short game. Week could
be right there. Doug Gimbs, the other one falls right
in line. We've got we talked about him the past
couple weeks on the pod, but him actually putting together

(45:54):
you know what, four straight top twenty finishes.

Speaker 3 (45:56):
Now for him, we've often.

Speaker 5 (45:59):
Talked about him being an out liar on the models
as well, but now he's putting together the results that
you want to see. So same sort of thing here,
Sprinkle on the outright for me in a pretty big
top twenty bet at plus three fifty for me on
Doug Yet is.

Speaker 3 (46:12):
Wes Is he on your cart either one of these guys?

Speaker 2 (46:14):
He is not.

Speaker 4 (46:17):
Debating what I want to do at the placements, because
certainly Tom Hogy did pop in terms of the in
terms of the recent especially the ball striking stats, he's
always up there near the top though on approach, so
neither did one other guy for the last name of
h actually two of them that did make the card.
Max Holmer did make my card this week at twenty

(46:39):
eight to one. Usually you don't think of Max Holma
in Floridy seems to be a better West Coast player
because he's from California. But like the way he did
play last week at Bayhill, ended up T eight.

Speaker 2 (46:51):
He was third for putting.

Speaker 4 (46:52):
So when the putters go and look, Max holm is
a guy can get red hot with the putter and
then he's tough to beat, you know, one of the
tougher guys to beat out there, thirteenth and six over
the last two years at Salgrass. I don't think you
should put too much into that necessarily, like we mentioned,
because of form.

Speaker 2 (47:07):
So uh.

Speaker 4 (47:10):
Yes, it helps us, it does, absolutely, so we got
to have something out there.

Speaker 2 (47:15):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (47:17):
I guess somebody commented to about on his wife's TikTok
about that his wife or his wife and son are
holding him back from winning majors, and he goes, I
guess he hasn't seen my record before having a kid.
It's even worse, so, you know, so maybe Max Holma
he played, He plays a lot on social media and
he's very good at it, so maybe a little motivation

(47:39):
though you never know. So Holma is one of the
other guys with the last name of h I have
and I actually have a couple more. I thought I
had just one more. I have two more.

Speaker 1 (47:47):
I love it, got it?

Speaker 2 (47:48):
Yeah?

Speaker 4 (47:50):
How about Russell Henley at forty five to one this week,
already two top fives in twenty twenty four, Wiley Sony,
Open Bayhill, the Arnold Palmer. I think both those courses,
even if you don't do course correlations, you've seen guys
that have played well at those courses that have played
well and vice versa. Here second with the putter last
week in Orlando, missed the cut here on debut in

(48:12):
twenty twenty three, but ever since then he's been in
zop twenty five four times each of the last two years.
Also a win at the Sony Open, second and a
fifth at the Windom at Sedgefield, top tens at the
valspard Innisbrook copper Head Course, which they'll be at their
next week Travelers RBC Heritage. So plays well on a
lot of these pete dye designs. You know, that's not

(48:33):
something necessary to just stake it all on, but certainly
good for context of Russell Henley forty five to one.

Speaker 2 (48:39):
Brian Harmon at sixty six to one.

Speaker 4 (48:42):
That was the other ball striker that I think is
getting a lot of play this week, much like Tom
Hogy T twelve last week at bay Hill, fourth on
approach in the field, second last year at the Travelers,
seventh at the RBC Heritage last year. So Brian Harmon look,
and this is a course that's not a really long course,
not a Bombers course. You know, Brian Harmon hits it
dead straight, but doesn't hit it dead long. But if

(49:05):
you can hit it straight here, you've got a really
good opportunity. And I don't think length is really going
to hurt him, or the lack of length. So Brian
Harmon sixty six to one, another guy that's a ball
striker that doesn't seem to win as much as he
should based on the numbers. How about Corey Connors at
sixty to one, always near the top for approach, good
drives gain as well this week no exception, only one

(49:28):
top ten here in four starts.

Speaker 2 (49:29):
That was seventh back in twenty twenty one.

Speaker 4 (49:31):
But he's really good on all these Die courses, and
I think why that does maybe matter a little bit more,
even though you don't want to put too much weight
into it, is because Die in his designs, I think,
even though this is a unique course, but he basically
has a lot of the same principles where he's going
to emphasize precision, particularly with iron shots and particularly fairways.

(49:52):
You know, it sounds so simple and maybe oversimplifying it,
but it's fairways and greens and that's what it is,
and that's what it's always been on Pete Ye, and
I think even with sawgrass, even though there's more places
to get in trouble here than certainly some of those
other designs, especially at the water. Connors, if you know,
if he can make some putts, that's always That's always
the bugaboo with Cory Connors is that he can be

(50:13):
a horror show on the greens. But he's not a
horror show with those irons on his second shot. So
Corey Connor sixty six and then the two longer shots
to finish it up.

Speaker 2 (50:21):
Son JM ninety to one.

Speaker 4 (50:23):
It's been a long time since we gotten Sonja at
that number, and I know the form doesn't exactly pop off.
He was fifth the century in the opener, but top
twenty at the API last week, gain strokes in all
areas off the tee approach around the green, also putting
six here last year, strong record on You know, this
is just kind of like a gut play because the

(50:44):
numbers don't tell me that son Jam is going to
play well here. But it's more going with my gut
and that's what I did here as well with Keegan
Bradley at one hundred and ten to one. That's now
I think about one hundred or somewhere in the nineties,
but two top tens in his last five or top
sevens rather in his last five appearances here, one at
TPC River Highlands last summer, which is a die track

(51:07):
that's geared toward good ball strikers, much like Keegan Bradley is.
Also look should have won at Wili this year when
I was on him and then lost that Sony Open
playoff to Grayson Murray.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
Benny On was the third participant. So those are my.

Speaker 4 (51:21):
Seven for the outrights in terms of I think how
I'm going to attack some of the placements if Scheffler,
but like I said, it'd be a top ten, I
mean that'd be the only one I would play.

Speaker 2 (51:32):
Top ten.

Speaker 4 (51:32):
I would go the twenties though with Max Homer, I
think JT certainly fits there, Victor Hovland, and then you
know some.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
Guys in the forties.

Speaker 4 (51:43):
I know, Matt, you're taking a different approach with like
a HOGI and trying to get a bigger price at
a top ten or a top twenty rather than the
top forty where you're getting plus one ten plus one fifteen.
But that's what I think I'm gonna do, at least
for us. Some of the placement markets. Maybe a little
lesser volume though, because this course that's such a high volatility.

Speaker 1 (52:02):
I don't share a single outright with you guys this week,
so that'd be good for you. Suck it, Echo chamber
people out there. It's yeah, So don't share a single
outright with you guys this week. First on my car,
Justin Thomas. I hit it as soon as it came out.
It apparently everybody wants to bet Justin Thomas this week
because that number has been pounded down at this point.

(52:25):
But you run the models, specifically the short term stuff,
and Justin Thomas is just popping all over the place.
Like every single thing that I'm looking for this week,
Justin Thomas is right up there. And if you take
a look, I mean we're going across a guy here
that around the green. First in the field over the
last you know, over the last thirty six rounds. If

(52:48):
you go in approach, he's twelfth in the field over
the last thirty six rounds.

Speaker 3 (52:52):
He's third in par five.

Speaker 1 (52:53):
Scoring, which is incredibly important here to go out and
take advantage of those par fives. Bogie avoidance, which used
to be a bugaboo for him again recency, top thirteen
in this field, top thirteen in scrambling, all these different
little things where he's inside the top fifteen equals a
play for you know, Justin Thomas. I think he's gonna win.
I don't know if it'll be this week, he's gonna
win pretty soon.

Speaker 2 (53:14):
I agree with that. Yeah, he is.

Speaker 4 (53:16):
He is a much different player right now than he
was this time last year. He was totally lost and if.

Speaker 1 (53:22):
The weather gets bad, like I mean, granted, I'm a
prisoner to like, I only follow about twenty golfers on Instagram,
so like, you know, he's one of the twenty. But
but like I see him hitting the like two iron
stingers all the time and stuff like if you have
to like keep it low and you just got to
do like craziness and and all that. And so uh,
knowing that that's at least in his bag at least

(53:42):
does give me a little bit of confidence with all
that with Justin Thomas, So do have him on the card.

Speaker 3 (53:48):
I will say this, he might be a bad for me, Matt.
He was, he was really high up there.

Speaker 4 (53:52):
I considered him too. He's certainly gonna be a placement
guy for me.

Speaker 1 (53:55):
So one of the other things I did this week
is so I did diversification in AM and PM start
times because of the potential for weather, and so like
JT's a PM start, my next guy is Sam Burns.
He's an AM start. Sam Burns was, like I said,
he was in control until he wasn't in control last week.
And if you want to talk about volatility, that's actually

(54:18):
what I'm embracing here. Say you know who made the
most birdies in that tournament last week, Not Scotty Scheffler.

Speaker 3 (54:23):
It was Sam Burns.

Speaker 1 (54:24):
It was just the problem is he made two triples
as well along the way with Scotty Scheffler doesn't do
But if you don't talk about a dude that goes
out and scores like Sam Burns scores right, and if
he can keep it out of the water, then I
think that there is a pretty good chance that he
could give this thing a run. And because he had
such a crappy Sunday, his number is really attractive. Like

(54:47):
you're getting over forty to one on Sam Burns right now.
And if you talk about win equity, a guy that
has won multiple times on tour, I will embrace the variants.
He might hit five in the water and be done
on day one. I'll take it like I don't care, right,
you know, like a guy that can go out and
make the most verdices in a tournament and does so
well on par five scoring and it's so good around

(55:08):
the green typically, and that's kind of been just the
downfall to him right now, which is something I think
he'll be able to get back. I'll I'll go ahead
and embrace the volatility for them. So PM start with
Justin Thomas, AM, start with Sam Burns, AM, start with
Seawoo Kim. If we're talking about just dudes that can
be short and can just hit greens, then I always

(55:28):
kind of gravitate towards Seawoo Kim and things like this.
Says nothing to do with him being a pass winner here.
This before I even cared about like this. That was
in the previous version of the course or whatever. But honestly,
if you just go in, you run the models. You
look at the dudes who play well on short courses,
who can get through hard courses when they're short, and
just do very very well as far as like that
good drive percentage at Wes was talking about that, you

(55:50):
plug into models Seawoo just pops when it comes to
all of that.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
And so seaw Kim for me actually eighth overall.

Speaker 1 (55:58):
In one of the models that I ran this week,
and so the odds just don't, you know, dictate a
guy that's eighth overall in the model for me. So
had to put an outright on see you last one
a guy that I feel like I'm stealing from you here, Wes,
I can't believe you don't have Keith Mitchell on your
card this week. And I was positive you were going
to have him. But Keith Mitchell for me, how about

(56:19):
this fifth overall in one of my models, third overall
in one of the others, and then in the one
where he was down he was eighth overall. This is
three different sites, three different algorithms, all love Keith Mitchell
this week. So good off the T, so so good
on approach. And so if you look in the one

(56:42):
model that I ran, so I did, like I said,
the long term and short term off the T stuff.
Put in some long term short term approach stuff as well.
Keith Mitchell second overall, last fifty rounds off the T
oh by the way, last sixteen rounds also second overall
in this field eighth overall and approach last sixteen rounds.
So he's coming in hitting the irons very very well.
Good drive percentage ninth overall in this field of last

(57:03):
twenty four rounds, and if you look at total driving
second overall last twenty four rounds as well. If we're
talking about driving the ball, it's the first step for
this golf course and go from there. Keith Mitchell give
it to me in spades here. So and he is
a PM. So I have two ams, two pms. If
the weather happens to be a factor, at least I
have both sides of the draw here. And I'm not

(57:25):
dead on arrival right when it comes to all of that.

Speaker 4 (57:29):
Yeah, because I don't think you want to wait it
too heavily. I know the numbers will indicate that AMPM
draw Thursday AM Friday PM usually gets the better end
of the draw here, at least historically. But you know,
I never want I never get too crazy with that though,
because I think that that can backfire.

Speaker 2 (57:49):
Maybe that's something.

Speaker 4 (57:49):
You could do for something like an open and Open championship,
but I think trying to do that week to week
can kind of be a little bit feudal. So I
just went, you know, with who I went with, and
I think I ended up with like half and half myself.

Speaker 1 (58:03):
H two guys that I don't have outrights on. I'm
trying to decide between one of the two. And the
reason I'm only doing five outrights this week is because
all these guys I've been talking about in my placement market,
Kelly I did kind of like they're all super long
shots and so like I have like you know, a
quarter of a unit, like you know whatever on them
for an outright. But the main, the bulk of the
money is on the Bulkan mondies. On the placement market.

(58:24):
It's either gonna be Zaladurus or it's gonna be Feenale,
and both of those dudes very high.

Speaker 3 (58:31):
In the models.

Speaker 1 (58:32):
For me, I'm a little worried as to why Feenale
didn't play this past week.

Speaker 3 (58:37):
Yeah, like it was. I was also shocked at how
highly he rated in my models.

Speaker 1 (58:43):
It's a I mean like it's a it's a sixty
nine person field with a twenty million dollar prize pool
and only eleven people didn't make the cut and he
chose to skip it as like almost free money. So
that's at least a little worrisome to me. So that
be the reason I haven't pulled the trig yet. But guys,
female sixty to what you're getting sixty?

Speaker 4 (59:05):
Yeah, yeah, I looked at that too. I was like, man, yeah,
I if am I gonna pass this up? And I
eventually did. But yeah, but I don't I don't think
he's really all that far removed from good form.

Speaker 2 (59:17):
I know, you know, when he won in Mexico, he
never was really in it. But he's played okay.

Speaker 4 (59:22):
He was in the mix at Tory Pine, so it's
not like he's played poorly. Yeah, he just hasn't been
right there, you know.

Speaker 1 (59:28):
Yeah, I just I can't figure out Hammers. Salad Turus
one of the two. I just don't want to miss.
I don't want to miss Aladaurus's win, which is coming
as well. I'd rather it be at the Masters because
I put in that Master's ticket a long time ago
on him, so I have forty nine to one on
him to win the Masters. So i'd rather be the Masters.
But I kind of don't want to miss out on
that win. So I don't know it's gonna be Saladrus

(59:49):
or fenwe one of the two and then place with
market stuff already mentioned. I'm on HOGI, I'm on Gim.
I'm really really heavy on Gim. I'm probably has a
bad week. It could be a bad week for me, But.

Speaker 3 (01:00:03):
You go in.

Speaker 1 (01:00:03):
It's like, again, you want to ride these heaters with
these dudes that aren't like class players like all the time.
And if you want to talk about a heater, Doug
Gim last sixteen rounds, last four tournaments. By the way,
He's made every cut, so it is only four turns.
Listen heading into this tournament. Second overall strokes gain total
six t de green, twenty sixth off the te sixth approach,

(01:00:25):
six ball striking, twenty fourth putting, and twenty fifth short game.
Like Doug Gim is inside the top twenty six and
basically every single strokes gain category over the last four
tournaments heading into this thing, let's ride the heater. Throw
him in there yet again. So Gim, HOGI wes you
have an outright on Connors. I have a placement market

(01:00:47):
on Connors. So Connor's for all the same reasons that
you said. So all of that last two guys longer
shot guys, if they get home on these placement market bets,
it's gonna be a winning week for me. So EVR
is bare very high in all of the stuff for
me as well this week. If you kind of look
at Evr's form, you got to ride it while he's

(01:01:07):
doing good, because we know EVR can fall apart. EVR
is inside the top forty seven in this field in
every single stroke game strokes game category over the last
twenty rounds. Also, he's inside the top twenty two in
total Tita Green putting short game, and he's thirty thirty

(01:01:29):
first in ball striking. So you're just getting the best
version of EVR right now. So I'm just gonna try
to ride the hot hand. And then the last guy's
Aaron Rye. I don't really like Aaron Rye. I know
y'all have bet him multiple different times. This might be
the first time I've ever met him, but I was
shocked as how high he was coming in in these
models that I was.

Speaker 4 (01:01:46):
Good on shorter courses because he's not very long off
the tee. But he's a pretty good iron player, pretty
accurate driver. So you know places like another Pete Die,
like a harder down or some of those places that's
where I think playing Aaron right is more prudent, not
these like seventy five seventy six yard beasts.

Speaker 1 (01:02:04):
Yeah, and so he was just way way high in
the models for me, and so I was like, all right, well,
I mean I can't ignore this. I'm gonna have to
end up playing Aaron Rye here. And so Aaron Rye
as well on the card for everything. Wes just said
to me that it was shocking to me. I mean,
the dude is like, especially on these short courses, whenever
you shrink it down to just the short course stuff,
he's like he's inside the top ten in some of

(01:02:26):
these categories actually, like on these short courses. And so,
shockingly enough, Aaron Rye ended up on the card for
me this week, Kelly, did we get through all your picks?

Speaker 5 (01:02:36):
And I got a couple a couple more, a couple
of notes just on on a couple of guys.

Speaker 3 (01:02:41):
You guys brought up as well. JT almost played. I
might still add him. I only have one.

Speaker 5 (01:02:46):
Outright that's short of forty two to one right now,
and that Xander, So I still might add JT also
might look to get involved live. That's where I brought
up I completely understand what you guys are doing with
kind of split splitting the AMPM starts. I'm gonna wait
a little bit, probably into tomorrow, see if I know
a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (01:03:06):
I have some numbers on that.

Speaker 4 (01:03:07):
By the way, just interject here, Yeah, what you got
since it's moved back from from May to March. I
think it's fifty seven percent of the top ten finishers
were in the Thursday morning Friday afternoon side of the draw,
So not as dramatic the winners trend. I think they
had this on Golf Channel this morning. Uh, there's only
been two champions since seven that went late early Thursday,

(01:03:30):
late Friday early and that was Tiger Woods and thirteen
Martin Kaimer and fourteen. However, you got to take some
of that date out, at least a little bit, so
that winners trends got a little bit of a bias
because most of those events, of course, were in May
and not in March.

Speaker 2 (01:03:43):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (01:03:44):
Yeah, so I do like like JT. I think the
other one because I brought that, I brought this up
around the hond A cognizant West Sunjay. It's even at
that point it was the Yes, the recent form might
not be great, but the number that you're playing on
that guy, it's just it's gotten.

Speaker 2 (01:04:01):
To a point where he's being a course too.

Speaker 4 (01:04:04):
Yeah, like this would be this seems like a perfect
course for a son JM to win because you have
a lot of international players, even though he plays mostly
here in the States.

Speaker 2 (01:04:12):
A lot of international players have won this event.

Speaker 4 (01:04:15):
It hasn't just been an American American American American that
win this thing.

Speaker 5 (01:04:19):
And then the uh the other one that I mean,
you guys both played him. I mean, maybe I'll add
a finishing position mark play on him or something. I
was surprised because I feel like I was surprised didn't
rate out a little bit higher for me, just because Wes.
I feel like we've been taking turns betting on this guy,
you know, past month, and it was it was Connor's
I mean Connors. I feel like I better, I think
a better in the past two weeks. Didn't make the

(01:04:39):
car yet. But you guys are maybe maybe convincing me.
And I will say it now. Uh if see Wu
Kim or Keegan fricking Bradley getting the mix to win
this tournament, I will be involved live on those guys.
Uh in celebrating with you, because I will not be
missing out on that. Even if I got a live
bet them at a quarter of the price of what

(01:05:00):
you guys got, I will not be missing out on
that celebration come next Tuesday, because I will be very
angry about that. Yeah, just to finish up my card
real quick. The only ones I didn't get to was
that Scheffler Top ten. I did bet pretty heavily.

Speaker 4 (01:05:14):
There.

Speaker 5 (01:05:14):
I'm with you on on Gim this week, Mattic. It's
that he has the greatest amount of exposure for me
so far. So let's go Dug Gim and then the
one guy, No, the the the person you're matched with
with Keith Mitchell this week is me, not Wes. So
I'm on on Mitchell as well because he was way
up there for me on everything as well. Say yeah,

(01:05:35):
just run through my real quick outright Xander, Shane Lowry,
Tom Hogy, Doug Gim, Keith Mitchell top twenties, then longer
on Hogy, Gim and Mitchell, and then that top ten
on chef A.

Speaker 1 (01:05:47):
All right, so guys, let's do a quick little this
guy or that guy for some guys that we didn't
talk about here on the card, just so that people
who might be interested can get our quick thoughts on
all that this is a head to head that you
can play over at DraftKings. Right now, Patrick can't Lay
versus Ludwig Aberg. This is can't lay a slight whit
minus one twenty favorite even money on Ludwig. As much

(01:06:08):
as I don't like can't ley, and I don't know
if he's in the best forum right now, I think
I'd still have to go that way because again, we've
seen Ludwig do it wes elsewhere.

Speaker 3 (01:06:16):
We hadn't seen him do it here yet. And honestly,
for all the talent.

Speaker 1 (01:06:21):
He's been okay, he's just been meh, like you know,
I mean like and yeah, we don't we like really
want him on a course where he can feature that driver.
He might be the best driver of the golf ball
like on the planet right now outside of Rory.

Speaker 3 (01:06:33):
So it's like, don't we want that big driver to
play in here? I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:06:37):
To me, it seems like it would be can't especially
those pretty short odds.

Speaker 2 (01:06:41):
Yeah, it would be can't lay for me.

Speaker 4 (01:06:42):
By the way, uh, since the Players Championship, Not that
I'm you know, I don't not did any of us
have Ludwig to win necessarily? Some do out there, probably,
but there has never been a debutante win here. Only
twice that it's happened, how Sutton in eighty three, Craig
Perks in two thousand and two. So Ludwig and that
that's the thing. Like you and I think we all
believe in his talent, and we believe this guy's got

(01:07:03):
the goods and he's gonna win. He's gonna win big
at some point. But this is the first time he's
looking at these courses. Yeah, and I think that that
really matters. So yeah, I would go can't lay here,
can't lay by the way, kind of a erratic form here.
He only has a one Top twenty here, and that's
what kind of kept me off of him. But I
do think Can't Ay is gonna win a big one,
but it might be more towards the summer.

Speaker 2 (01:07:24):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:07:24):
I don't know about you, Kelly, but like for me,
like I as far as like models go, though, like
can't like still in the top I don't know whatever
fifteen of all the versions, like even Top twelve or whatever.
But like I'm typically used to seeing him inside the
top five for everything, but.

Speaker 5 (01:07:40):
Yeah, that didn't happen this week after No, no, no,
no no, I'm just kind of I'm kind of looking
as as I you know, as I scale back in time,
you know, where he's at in twelve, I can't see
him anywhere.

Speaker 3 (01:07:50):
Where's he at? Last twenty four, I don't see him anywhere?

Speaker 5 (01:07:52):
Okay, last thirty six he pops up, pops up into
the top fifteen. So but yeah, I would make it
three for three. Still, it would still be Cantley for me.

Speaker 3 (01:08:02):
It's west. I think you said it perfect.

Speaker 5 (01:08:04):
As much as we talked about, of course, history not
factoring in as much here. Okay, it's still freaking scary
as hell to looking an island green and fire after fire.

Speaker 3 (01:08:13):
Hue, fire shot in there opened again.

Speaker 4 (01:08:15):
With guys like Ludvig could choot like a sixty four,
but he's a prime candidate for maybe a seventy seven
or seventy eight to just the lack of experience.

Speaker 1 (01:08:23):
Here, here's a tournament matchup you can make Jordan's Speith
and cam Young Kelly Speith a slight minus one twenty favorite.

Speaker 3 (01:08:31):
Okay, you know I hate Jordan Speed I was.

Speaker 5 (01:08:33):
He was another guy that was kind of shocked that
didn't what wasn't rated out higher in the models. I ran,
I think I would go with him. And I have
bet cam and Young the past couple. You say Cam
and Young, Right, Yeah, I got all excited about Jordan Speed.

Speaker 3 (01:08:45):
So Cameron Young's guy. I mean, I've bet the past
couple of weeks West. Yeah, think you you kind of
have too.

Speaker 2 (01:08:51):
We've been on it.

Speaker 3 (01:08:52):
He's another guy.

Speaker 5 (01:08:53):
I feel like we've either been alternating or on together
another you know. I think it's another kind of cantlay example.
It's just he's fallen, fallen, falling, And yeah, I would
still take it would be more of a gut thing,
but I'd go.

Speaker 4 (01:09:05):
I'd go speak over Cameran Young agreed. Here make it
two for two because look, this is a course too.
I think he Speed's only been in contention maybe like
once here, Like this is a place you would think
he would win because he's not a big hitter, and man,
he can hit really good irons and get hot with
the putter. He's one on on some Pete dies before

(01:09:25):
one at the RBC Heritage a couple of years ago,
over the aforementioned Patrick can't lay in the playoffs, so
he's one on these type of shorter courses, but just
never gotten it done here yet.

Speaker 1 (01:09:37):
If I can find that one in town, I'm actually
going to bet this one because look, the thing that
we talked about that we value so much on this
is like dudes being able to make sure they keep
it in the fairway, and like Cam Young is a
great guy for a bomb and gouage type course and
he can launch it as far as he would like
good drive percentage. If you look at him last thirty
six rounds, he's he is literally eightieth in this fiel

(01:10:00):
from a good drive percentage aspect. And so for me,
uh yeah, I make that three for three there on
Jordan Speed. Honestly, I think that's a good matchup. I
would play Speed over over Young in this tournament.

Speaker 3 (01:10:11):
Keep going, we gotta find one we disagree on.

Speaker 1 (01:10:13):
Will sal will Zalatoris versus Wyndham Clark Xalatoris.

Speaker 5 (01:10:18):
I'm just a little bit of rapid fire answers until
we find well we disagree on.

Speaker 2 (01:10:22):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (01:10:23):
Yeah, I mean I would think so too, and and
and I left off Sala Tauris this week.

Speaker 2 (01:10:28):
I'm thinking to win is coming.

Speaker 4 (01:10:29):
Maybe maybe you're kind of playing the game of like, Okay,
guess when it's gonna happen, because it's gonna happen soon.

Speaker 2 (01:10:34):
So I didn't play him this week?

Speaker 4 (01:10:36):
Uh uh I would I would lean a little bit
Xalatorus and Wyndam.

Speaker 2 (01:10:41):
Clark you know, had him earlier in the year at
Pebble Beach.

Speaker 4 (01:10:44):
Like he gets bet against too in the matchup markets
a lot, because I think I'm seeing one. A lot
of books have Shane Lowry against him, and Shane Lowry
is taking the money. That might be a recency bias though,
being third and fourth over the last two weeks.

Speaker 3 (01:10:56):
Yeah, I I'll tell you this.

Speaker 1 (01:11:00):
As horrible as he was at the Genesis, he was
really really really good uh at the Arnold Palmer Wyndham is.

Speaker 3 (01:11:09):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:11:09):
I I that's a tough one for me. As much
as I like Willie Z. You look, last week he did,
he did everything well. Last week Wyndham did. And then
like remember it's we're only three tournaments removed from him
winning over a public, right, right, so.

Speaker 3 (01:11:26):
Oh less remembers?

Speaker 2 (01:11:27):
Yeah, I do.

Speaker 3 (01:11:30):
On Oh you're you're going Xalatorius here, Matt, I don't know, man, Like,
how about this? How about this?

Speaker 1 (01:11:35):
As as Wes says, we still have a lot of
time for for xalators to get bet in this market.
And if we start getting like plus one twenty on
Wyndam Clark or whatever like that, that that changes the
calculus on this a lot, you know, when it all
comes down to it. So I think that that's at
least something to that the the price does come into
uh to play here on this.

Speaker 3 (01:11:55):
All right, So let's talk about two other guys real quick.

Speaker 1 (01:11:57):
We won't do the head head stuff because I just
want I know people are going to be wondering what
we think about Victor Hoblin this week he is twenty
two to one. He is fourth on the odds board,
same price as Justin Thomas over at DraftKings. Wes, Victor
just doesn't look right out there to me, Like he
plays like five good holes and then he has plays
two terrible holes, and like, I just don't know if
that's going to translate to this course, Like maybe you

(01:12:19):
can get away with that somewhere else, but I don't
know if that's going to translate here. So I actually
was thinking about fading Victor. I actually was thinking about
looking at head to heads to target him.

Speaker 4 (01:12:28):
Yeah, and I think maybe people are convincing themselves because
he finished third here last year and then was ninth
the year before. He's only made three appearances here. But
don't put too much stock into that necessarily, because guys
are in peak form at different times.

Speaker 2 (01:12:43):
And look, I.

Speaker 4 (01:12:44):
Thought maybe Bayhill was a good spot for him to
kind of get off the boil here a little bit,
and he didn't.

Speaker 2 (01:12:49):
And look, he's got time to figure it out.

Speaker 4 (01:12:52):
And he's certainly talented enough to win him any single
week on the PGA Tour. And you know, I still
feel he's a prime candidate to win a major this year.

Speaker 2 (01:12:58):
It just might not.

Speaker 4 (01:12:59):
Come, might not come in the first one, might come
later in the summer. But yeah, he's not looking he's
he's definitely not in his peak form that he was.

Speaker 5 (01:13:09):
Yeah, I would say that, uh yeah, no real interest
for me. I mean, it's not like he's a recent
forum baut whack. You guys talked about it. He didn't
really spike anywhere for me, I would say, though, for
guy for him and Tony Finow, they're both guys that
you were talking Matt earlier about kind of riding the
hot hand with some of these guys that don't have
as much experience, not as much uh you know, not

(01:13:31):
as many great finishes over the years and stuff. For
whatever reason, I feel like Hoblin and fen Now are
both like when they get hot for me is usually
when I'm on them, even if it means Bettenham at
shorter numbers, And when I see either hiccups and kind
of either of their games, it scares me off and
scares me off completely. I'm fine with with with letting
them go a week even if I miss you know,

(01:13:52):
miss out on something.

Speaker 3 (01:13:53):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:13:54):
So for me, the big thing about Hoblin again, I
was on him last week and and I think I'm
gonna be off until I see some change here. We
just we mentioned it. Guys like these are small greens,
They're likely gonna be several times where you're gonna have
to try and scramble to say par You're gonna have
to try and chip up there and do it. Guys,
remember his big thing that we were always that we
hated about Victor Hovelin was he was so terrible around

(01:14:16):
the green. He was so horrible. He has now lost
around the green in four straight tournaments. He has now
lost short game for the last five tournaments. Two point
seven down last week around the Green at the API,
one point seven at the Genesis, two point two at
Pebble Beach. Like, I'm wondering if the yips around the

(01:14:36):
Green have gotten back to him. And if that's the case,
this is not the place that it's gonna na.

Speaker 2 (01:14:43):
He's working with a new site where he has been.

Speaker 4 (01:14:45):
It's not new like this week, but it's new for
the season, has a new swing coach, so sometimes that
takes time.

Speaker 1 (01:14:52):
Yeah, So for me, you're losing around the Green four
straight tournaments, losing short game for the last five, this
probably ain't the place you're gonna get straight. So I'll
fade Victor on this one as well. Guys, all of
our picks you can find over at vson dot com,
so be sure go in there, and by.

Speaker 3 (01:15:09):
The way, you get them absolutely free if.

Speaker 2 (01:15:11):
You miss it.

Speaker 1 (01:15:12):
Whatever, Everything we do absolutely free this week, So go
in and take advantage of Vison dot com slash Champ
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Speaker 3 (01:15:22):
You get all of the hockey stuff that's going on
over there, all.

Speaker 1 (01:15:26):
Of the tennis stuff that's going on right now, because
we've got a nice little tennis tournament going down in
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For Kelly, I'm Matt. Good luck on all your players

(01:15:49):
championship bets.