April 17, 2024 • 26 mins
Kelley Bydlon and Wes Reynolds preview the first LPGA major of the year. It's the Chevron Championship at The Club at Calton Woods in Texas. Nelly Korda has won four straight events. Korda is looking for her second major championship. The guys also go through any additions on their cards for the Corales Puntacana Championship and the RBC Heritage.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Visaon's premiere golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlinch.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to long Shots Wednesday edition. Kelly Bedland, West Reynolds here,
coming back here on Wednesday. We're gonna try to mix
these in a little bit more. We've got an LPGA
event to discuss this week.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
A major, so we wanted to mix that in.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
West was doing a little bit of writing on it,
so we decided to get you at least a quick
pod on that and Wednesdays.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Again, we're gonna try to do these a little bit
more regularly.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Recap kind of all the bets that we've all landed
on for whatever PGA Tour event is going on.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Definitely for the bigger tournaments.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
The elevated events and majors, we'll make sure to do
these on Wednesdays. Might be a couple that we miss
on some other weeks when they're not quite as big
a tournaments, but we're gonna try to mix these in
a little bit more for you and we'll continue definitely
during the majors. We'll continue those Friday after the cuts
for you guys. I know we've gotten some positive feedback
West from so from some of the fans out there.
(01:01):
I know sometimes on Tuesday, it is tough when Tuesday
we say it all the time. It's always tough for
us to figure out when to even record long shots
because it takes Vegas so long to get everything posts
right betting.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Wise, that we don't even know fully know what bets
we make. So we appreciate everybody listen, you know, hit
the rate, hit the review, leave your comments.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
We always like to hear the feedback. But we're gonna
try to keep doing these a little bit more. We've
got a little bit of a special event to talk
about today, right, Yeah, we.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Do the Chevron Championship, as you mentioned, the first LPGA
major of the year. If you're not sure the lineage
of the Chevron Championship, it is the old Dinah Shore
event that was always the first major of the year
that used to be out in Mission Hills out in
southern California and actually started in nineteen seventy two, so
(01:50):
Dinah Shore, the former singer, actress, entertainer. It was her namesake.
The trophy is still called the Dinah Shore Trophy. Last
year it was the first it did move to the Woodlands,
which is just a little bit north of Houston because
of sponsor considerations for the Chevron Championships, so no longer
known as the Dinah Shore. But you've got you know,
(02:13):
obviously major championship field, a lot of pass major champions
I think thirty eight of the top forty and their
Rolex rankings, which is like their OWGR seven point nine
million dollar PERSE, which is actually increased by about one
hundred and fifty four percent.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Since twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
So yeah, I kind of miss it at the old
at the old course that they always had it out
in California. But in terms of the you know, sponsor considerations,
it's like, Okay, we're putting money into this event and
actually paying a big purse and that is a big
time PERSE. I know, it seems like small potatoes when
we talk about the twenty million dollar PGA events and
then live and all that stuff, but this is big
(02:50):
and you know, it's a good trend though, because we've
seen it with the WNBA, you know, trying to put
more money into women's sports and more exposures. So big
event this weekend. Head of the field, though we talk
about Scotti Scheffler's dominance on the PGA Tour. Yeah, he's
being tromped here by world number one Nellie Korda, who's
(03:12):
won four straight events on the LPGA Tour coming into
this week. She's won twelve times on the tour, just
twenty five years of age, only looking for just her
second major though, because she's had injuries over the years.
She's had a back issue last year, she had the
blood clot in her arm in twenty twenty two where
she missed well over half the year.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
So finished third here on this venue last year.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
So she is well the favorite because I had to
look at the odds board and I was like, okay,
what's the second choice, because you're thinking, okay, second choice
might be like ten to one or twelve to one,
kind of like what we saw at the Masters last
twenty five to one. You have to go all the
way down to find the second choice. And these are
good players too, and major champions Jin Young Co, Taia Titeicule,
(03:55):
Brooke Henderson, Lydiaco, Patty tabatanik at Rojiang.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
Who at the American Star.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
I remember she was the number one amateur and the
NCAA champion at Stanford's won a couple of times on
the LPGA Tour. So yeah, you had to go like
way down to find a second choice here on the
odds board. So Nelly Corda very much the woman to
beat this weekend.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Well, let's play the normal Scotti Sheffler game then here
with Nelly. It really is impressing for to row uh.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Four in a row and didn't she didn't she skip
a couple of weeks or something, two in the middle
in the ale of that, So it's it's not even
like she's just been rolling week after week.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It's almost even more impressive to me when when you
see someone do something like that. So four in a row,
fifth on deck, Okay, five to one of the outright market?
Speaker 3 (04:43):
How do you play this, Wes?
Speaker 2 (04:45):
I mean, I mean is she I mean we obviously
Scotty saw Scotty Scheffler a four to one takedown a
master's green jacket last week. So not a bad bet
on the men's side Is that a bat or a
good bet on the women's side here this week?
Speaker 4 (04:58):
Yeah? I don't think it's a bad bet.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I mean, look at you know, uh, she is well
the woman to be I mentioned she was third last
year behind uh, Lily Avou won this as in a playoff.
Lily Avoo, by the way, is number two in the
Rolex rankings. Kind of been slow to start this year
and she's thirty three to one. Uh, you know, she
just got one top ten this season. Comes in a
little out of form. But you know, you don't often
(05:21):
see that a gap between world number one and world
number two five to one to thirty three to one,
and that's what and that's what you're seeing. So uh,
you know, if you I'm surprised Nellie quarter maybe isn't
a little shorter. I thought she might be like three
to one or four to one. Is five to one, yeah,
So so I mean it's Bata ball.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Certainly?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Does that say more? I don't want to I don't
want to say this wrong though.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
We didn't see these same kind of odds stacked up
like this though on the Masters last last week, right,
we we dipped down to about the ten to one range,
not the twenty five to one range. So I does
it tell you more about I mean, is there really
that big a separation right now between Nelly Korda and
the rest of the rest of the LPGA tour.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
There might be.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
And look, the LPGA tour has gotten better, I mean
it's gotten deeper over the years. Like there's a lot
of really good players out there that have won major
championships of late. And you know, like Alison Corpus who
won the US Women's Open. I think I saw her
at seventy to one at one shop out there. So
(06:30):
these are like recent major champions within like the last year,
and they're that far priced down because last year I
think you did have a couple of dark horses at
least win major championships and first time major winners. Lily
Avou of course, Lily Avoo, by the way, we had
four wins last year and won the Player of the
(06:50):
Year and it's thirty three to one, but if you like,
and she won two majors too, by the way, won
the Chevron also won the a G Women's Open, so
she shared that honor with Selene Boutier who also won
her for her fourth major last year or fourth overall win.
But yeah, there is a separation I think right now,
(07:11):
And it's not that these other people, these other players
are bad, it's that she's just that good right now
and just that dialed in you mentioned you know, this
started back twelve weeks ago actually is when Nelly Corner
started this streak and then you know, had about a
month and a half or two months off because she won,
(07:31):
uh just looking at her events here, she won one
of the open she won the opening one of the
opening events in Bradenton back in in January, and then
in March she wins in La.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
She I don't I don't know if she played in
any of.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
The international events because usually LPGA they go international, they
go over to Asia early in the year, they go
over to Thailand, and they go over to China. I
don't know if she played that events. But she won
the Sayre Pak Championship at Wilshire Country Club in La
then won the four Championship down in Arizona, and then
actually came out here to Vegas a couple of weeks
(08:07):
ago and won the match play which is stroke play
and then they seed them accordingly. The match play was
held at Shadow Creek Golf Club MGM big sponsor of that.
MGM I believe is the owner of that course now
and and ends up winning that match play. Like that's
a tough grind, you know, when you can win a
match play event where you got to play all these
(08:27):
matches and all this golf over four or five days.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
You know, she's just she's just on it right now.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
And I don't know, I think I think it might
have been Karen Stupples, who is a former LPGA Tour
player who's the commentator on golf channels, Like, I haven't
seen anybody play any better, and you've had these runs.
Several different players over the years have had these runs Onika,
of course the Raino Shoa. But but she's Nellie Gordon
right now.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Just she looks unstoppable.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, this is five to one outright plus one forty,
top five, one fifty top ten over at Draftings sports
Book right now. The Yeah, I might, I might shop
around for a top a top ten price on her.
I mean you just you look back from what she did,
what she's done from about middle of August to this point.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
I mean, she's top ten in.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
I think my quick math says about half the event
she's teeing it up in.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
So maybe a little bit more. Now there's really hot
streak that she's on right now.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Man, Yeah, I might, I might be a shop around
a bit for me and check that out.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
The other one.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
The other one I don't even know how much you
look through is I'm just cycling through some of the
draftings markets right now.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Would you rather play her five to one or plus
two thirty? Is top North American?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Yeah, probably top because because she would be competing against uh,
against Brooke Henderson from Canada, she would be Rojiang lilya
vou as well. And then just going down to board
Allison Lee. He's actually played pretty well of.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Late, a lot of names out though.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
It does it does, so that might actually be a
better price because I was kind of looking to see, okay,
if I play a couple, and these would be obviously
very very minuscule and small bets, you know, kind of
just looking and you can't really go too far down
the board. But Patty t Patty Tavatani Kit from Thailand
twenty eight to one. She's already won a couple times
(10:23):
this year actually, both over in Asia. And she's a
really long, a long hitter too. And one of the
things I noticed just looking at this course, it's you
know about par seventy two, sixty eight seventy two, so
you know, the normal courses we talk about it's like, oh,
that's so short. That's actually the longest course on the
LPGA Tour. It's the club at Carlton Woods is where
(10:45):
they're playing this Jack Nicholas signature course, and Nicholas of
course designed this in twenty oh one, so you know,
link is really the main defense unless the wind picks up.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Fairways are you know, about thirty.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Yards wide on average, not exactly tight, but more on
the narrow side certainly than the wide side. Greens are
really big here about sixty eight hundred square feet roll
about twelve on the stamp, so you know, you got
to have some length here. I think when you're looking
at you know who can really drive the ball and
take advantage of par fives. Very common to what we
(11:20):
heard last week really at the Masters, you know, taking
advantage of those par fives. And Patty t is a
big hitter top ten and driving distance on the LPGA Tour.
And then another one I was looking at that you
could find I think at forty to one, I think
it's a bet. Three to sixty five is where the
best price is. Yucasaso out of Japan, also one of
the bigger hitters, So yeah, I want somebody that's going
(11:43):
to be able to hit it pretty long, like Nellie
Cord can hit it launch. He's not ranked that high
in terms of driving distance, you know, probably like thirtieth
or fortieth on the entire tour, but certainly has a
beautiful golf swing and really wins I think with their irons.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
I think that's really the best part of her game.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Kind of like it.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
So yeah, no, no bets in the account for you. Yeah,
but we're just review one more time the ones you
were eyeing up.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
Patty Tavatanikad at twenty eight to one, Yucasaso at forty
to one. Both are former major champions, so they got
some major pedigree. So that's probably as deep as I
go here. But this will certainly be a pretty cool
event though, and you know, to see if Nelly Cory
can keep adding to history.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Yep, yeah, absolutely, yeah, some I'll definitely have my eye
on this weekend.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
The Okay, and the other thing we're gonna start trying
to try.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
To be doing on these Wednesday podcasts is just roll
through all of our bets that we've made for whatever
PGA Tour event is going on. We do have two
this week though, let's start krals puntakana. Actually, Wes, if
you don't mind if you have that stuff pulled up
in front.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Of you, I know you're the only one that betted
I I know I mentioned it yesterday Around the World podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I'm gonna end up making a Burger bet. It's a
forty to one in this type of feel that I
like Daniel Berger too much to stay away from that number, So.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I've really got nothing to go off of that.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Dana Burger has not looked all that great since his
return return this season. I guess the best thing you
can say, Wes, right is he has played fairly consistency consistently,
so it's uh, I don't think he's had too many
gick ups, at least with the with the.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Yeah, and this is a downfield to you know, obviously,
you know most of the top guys are playing up
at the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, so yeah, yeah,
I could certainly sponsored it's one of those events. Because
it's the alternate event. It's tough to make an argument
against most players.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Right, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
It's very random, which is why I'm probably not going
to have many, if any like placement.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Markets on on this, I think call yep.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Because usually the placements can kind of help you, you know,
if you don't hit these outright, especially in a crapchewed
event like this, get money back. But it's like I'd
be willing to take the loss here if none of
my guys hit just it's so hard and it's so
random here.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I think with placement markets.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
I think that's a great call. We often talk about
it on long Shots, and we talk about it with
PGA Tour offense. Even if just the higher variance tournaments
those being we love, we love subscribe, endorse and promote
people betting into into those markets as a way to
really help build your bankroll and kind of keep it
alive in between outright hits. But some tournaments they make
(14:27):
way more sense that than others. And I think that
there if it's a tournament that whether it's whether it's weather,
whether it's water, water on the course, whether it's you know,
a whole lot of factors that can make it just
a higher variance result oriented course. It's something that I
tried a little bit more lightly than if I'm looking
(14:49):
at especially like top twenty, top forties, because it's just
you know, one bad round or something completely blows you up,
takes you out of it, and you know, could just
ruin that bet where you're probably gonna have sunk it
a little bit more money. So I got's a good
call for an event like this. I think it's a
good one, especially if you are focused more on the
RBC Heritage. Anyways, throw a couple outrights in, few outrights
(15:11):
in if they're guys. He got feels on, you know,
and that's that's a good way.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
To do it. So who did you end up landing
on again? I remember a couple of years from yesterday,
but roll through them for the audience.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Yeah, for the Corralsputtakana Nate Lashley twenty eight to one.
Speaker 4 (15:28):
Very good coastal form.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Actually won here on this course in twenty seventeen when
it was a corn ferry event. Victor Perez thirty three
to one, who just missed out getting a spot at
the RBC Heritage as part of that a on swing five.
He ended up number six third last month at the
alternate event in Puerto Rico, so he's got experience on
this paspalum type of greens. Sam Stevens thirty five to one.
(15:50):
Fifty four hole leader last year, eventually finished third. Maddy
Schmid fifty five to one, also a guy that goes
good in some of these coastal events. Third and Bermuda
late last year. Ten than Puerto Rico back in March.
Peter Quest sixty six to one. One of the longer
hitters and better putters in this field. I struggled a
little bit on the corn Ferry to start the season,
but two weeks ago tenth at the Valero and then
(16:13):
one kind of shot in the dark Alex Fitzpatrick eighty
to one. Of course, his brother Matt is defending the
RBC Heritage title there at Hilton Head, where they vacation
frequently as a family when they were young, so took
a shot with Alex Fitzpatrick at eighty to one.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
I feel like I'm all right, Okay, Well, first of all,
I'm gonna add on. I'm gonna I'm gonna tail West
this week on Sam Stevens Maddy Schmid. Yeah, we've bet
Maddie a couple times this year at different points in
PGA tour. I think that game's definitely there. Sam Stevens,
I think you just broke it down. Well, both those guys,
and they're guys we've touched in kind of main PGA
(16:51):
tour events already.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
We've played a couple times.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
So I'm gonna tell you on those two, I'm gonna
throw in Daniel Berger just small outright bets for me
this week. On those, I'm gonna tell West on a
couple I think those are smart selections for this course.
I'll tell you, Wes, did you tell you did you
ever take any regular like family vacations like that when
you were a kid. I don't know why that's this
story kind of drives me, Yeah, because I feel like
(17:16):
I feel like we heard about it like three year
two or three years ago, and like I'm already it's
like one of the most tiring tour like tour stories
every year. Like as the Fitzpatrick family, I.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Envy them because we did not take it take a
lot of those, especially.
Speaker 3 (17:33):
When you're coming from England. You know, that's a nice
little trip would come all the way over from England.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
We went to like King's Island like in Cincinnati from Indianapolis.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Like that's about. That's about it.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
No, like elaborate, nice, lovely holiday as they call it
over in Europe.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Yeah, I mean, I guess, I guess the closest thing
that I've got is, uh, when we were living overseas
when I was a kid, and we'd come back to
the United States like every summer in between cool semesters.
But like that was just to you know, like get
a few weeks of Americana back in our veins before
we shipped back around Russia or Caracas, Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
You know. I mean, I was like, just get back
to the States and need a damn.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Hit, a damn cheeseburger or something like that, you know.
So I guess that's the closest I I could get to.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
I didn't really have a special family vacation like that
every single year. And uh, sorry for the spoiler alert
for everybody who didn't know that, because I'm sure you're
going to hear about it eighteen times on the CBS
broadcast this we yeah, so CBS now right, ever since
The Masters takes over, right we start CBS, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Yeah, especially with Matt Fitzpatrick. I actually, uh on the RBC,
I did win that last year with mattah you to
sweat that out in a playoffs, so hopefully uh, going
back to back. Although fits Norah mister Speed, who is
the other playoff participant or not on my card this week.
Fits probably is a placement market play, like a top
twenty that I'm gonna add this afternoon.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Yeah, Wes, I lost it there for one sec. But yeah,
let's just roll right into the RBC heritage and everything.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
That you did. Bet.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I know, yeah, you hit on Fits last.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Year, so keep it rolling, buddy, Yeah, yeah, and I'm
going to have him obviously, I think like top twenty
placement market, but not from the outright So from the
outright perspective, Patrick can't Lay eighteen to one. Not great form,
but look course for the course here always good on.
Pete dies four top threes in his six appearance this year.
Tommy Fleetwood twenty two to one. I thought played very well.
(19:30):
He wasn't like right in the mix, like when you
look and say he finished third at Augusta. It's not
like he was a challenger. But he kept getting better
as the week went on, you know, just kind of
started out slow and then kept getting better.
Speaker 4 (19:41):
So Tommy Fleetwood I think really fits this course.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Cameron Young twenty eight to one, still looking for that
first PGA Tour win much like Tommy Fleetwood. Tom Kim
fifty to one low round of the Sunday at the Masters,
shot at six under sixty six. Maybe that's some positive momentum.
I actually hope the wind blows a little bit more
because I think that would be better for him, because
he's very good in the wind over in Europe last summer.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Yeah, Wes, you.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Did mention that yesterday when we were recording. I thought
that was an interesting note because it really does feel
like that ever since Tom Kim's kind of burst onto
the scene. I mean, you really have the.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
More notable events.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
It feels like with him, where he's had good performances
have kind of come with some gross weather conditions, and
I don't know what to read into that. I always
feel like it's I feel like it's unfair when sometimes
these guys get tagged with the you know, the label
of hell, yeah he plays great through rain, or sometimes
especially sometimes when it's really lazy analysis, sometimes we're like, hey,
(20:37):
he's an Australian, he clearly can play in the wind,
or like something like you know, or hey he's Scottish,
he must be great in the rain, And you're like okay,
but like I don't I don't know how many times
the guy's actually played in the rain, you know what
I mean. Like, so I feel like there's sometimes just
like that lazy go to golf analysis, but like it's
something when you bring you pick up something like that
(20:58):
on a younger guy like this, it's something to keep
your eye on. I'm not saying he's an auto bet
whenever there's bad conditions, but it's become a trend with him,
So something to keep an eye on. Because we've also
seen him have some rather poor performances, you know what
I mean, kind of mixed in throughout. So I don't
know interesting, but I'm with you that Sunday Masters's performance
(21:19):
caught my eye. I think he rolls in at least
with some momentum this week.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Yeah, and he also waited around at the end there.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
He's actually a very good buddy and probably one of
Scotti Schffler's closest friends on the PGA tour. So sometimes
it's like when your buddy wins, you tend to play well.
I don't you know, I don't have any data to
back that up, but I've noticed that over the years,
and so I think Tom Kim could go okay this week,
and then finishing out the card Christian bezzeidenhout at sixty
(21:49):
six to one, Cepstraca sixty six to one, Taylor Moore
seventy to one.
Speaker 4 (21:53):
Mister consistency.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
He hadn't missed a cut this year on the PGA Tour,
made All ten runner up a couple weeks ago in Houston,
Fifteen in a row.
Speaker 4 (22:00):
He's actually made since the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, I like that He's on my card as well.
I was gonna roll through matts first, but that leads
me nicely into mind, so I'll just start with mine. Actually, yeah,
I did bet him. I'm going light on the outrights
again this week. With old Scottie Scheffler seemingly still in
the field, I follow up, you know, update from our
podcast yesterday if you listen to it, Scotty Shuffler not
(22:25):
breaking news, still in the field.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
The NBC average.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
We'll have to see if anything ends up happenated with that,
but yeah, I do have so. I in anticipation of
him withdrawing and pulling out of this tournament, I did
bet Cameron Young. I was kind of ran numbers quick
from last year, bet Cameron Young and Corey Connors.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Earlier in the week.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
I'm not necessarily sure I'd be a gung ho on
them now after looking at some stuff, but I, like
I said on the podcast yesterday, for anybody that listened
to Hey, Wes is on one of them, Matt's on
the others, that sure makes me feel a lot better
with Cameron Young, Corey Connors all.
Speaker 3 (22:59):
The other outr that I played was Akha Batilla.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
We talked a lot about him yesterday, but he really
spiked high and almost everything that I ran.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
So did play him in the outright market.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
At top twenty, and I've got a little bit more
matchup researcher. I gotta see if there's one out there.
I didn't see any yesterday that I really liked him in,
so I left him alone there. Taylor Moore I played
in the top twenty market as well as Seawou Kim.
I did at Seawou yesterday as after we had that
conversation on him, so top twenties on sea wou ox
(23:28):
Jay Taylor Moore played Taylor Moore in a matchup over
Chris Kirk and then Top ten on Xanders shoft Lee
at plus one oh five. I feel like that is
the bet I've heard kind of touted around the most
this week, which, look, I understand I've been betting Xander
top ten and seemingly every tournament here for the past
two months. It's one of the few things that's actually
(23:50):
worked out worked out okay for me betting on golf
here this season. So I'm gonna keep going back to that.
Got that at plus money. I would just watch the
move been on that if that goes all the way.
I think I saw that as low as minus win
thirty a and that price is starting to get a
little out of control, so I'd probably cut that off
at some point. As far as Matt Brown's bets at
(24:11):
all of ours, Matt's mine and West is all at
vson dot com.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
He is on.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Shoftley, I know outright he did mention he's got dialond
back Mount he's betting into outrights, but he basically does
bet outrights at least small and all these guys usually
grabs a pool players and then splits it up kind
of outright top five, top ten, or goes if their
longer roag'e top twenty, top forty. So he went Xander
outright top five, top ten, Sea Wu outright top five,
(24:39):
top ten, Shane Lowry outright top five, top ten, Corey
Connor's outright in a top ten, Aha Battilla outright in
the top ten, and then Nick Taylor outright in a
top twenty. So that is Matt Brown's bets. Again, get
all of Wes's mind and Matt's bets every single week
(24:59):
for every PGA to event up at Visa dot com.
I know I did mention yesterday West Uh looking at
that first round leader market, I haven't made Uh. I
haven't made any bets yet, which is bad on me. Sorry,
I should have been had those locked in ready to go.
I can tell you though, I'm going to play Xander
and ox Shay uh in that market, will be.
Speaker 3 (25:21):
Playing probably outright first round leader.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
But again, if you listen to the podcast yesterday, if
you didn't, I suggest you go back, uh and listen
to it, because what are you doing, man?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
You gotta you gotta listen to at least.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
The big Tuesday one. All these all these other ones
we we kind of sprinkling around. The Tuesday one is
the big one, though, I mean the Wednesday morning because
that's what it released Wednesday morning.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
Sorry, I should refer.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To it as that I will be playing Ox Shay Xander,
and I think see wu I'm gonna dabble in probably
those three definitely Auk Shane Sander, that I'll be playing
first round leader, and then again look around shop around
those first round leader, top five, top ten markets. I
think you have a lot of value in them in
these tournaments that you know are gonna be.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
A little tougher, tougher to scoring more of those.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Scores bunched up, and if ties pay in full, that
can be an extremely valuable bet. It's something that I've
been experimenting with more this year. Not gonna lie, not
that I've had I've had a ton of success with
it so far, but I think in certain tournaments with
smaller fields, where you know two scoring is a little tougher,
I think those those bets just just inherently have a
(26:26):
little bit more value value in them. So a little
bit new market for us out here in Vegas, but
it's one that I'm experimenting with, playing around with a
little bit more this year, and I think there's some
potential there at certain events for it to be a
very profitable market. So that is what I'm gonna be
dipping my toes in too. All Right, that'll do it
for this one. We started off strong, we faded at
(26:48):
the end.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
It's okay.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
It happens sometimes with technology.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
For West Reynolds. I'm Kelly Bedlin. Good luck with all
your golf bets this week.
This is long Shots, Visaon's premiere golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlinch.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Welcome to long Shots Wednesday edition. Kelly Bedland, West Reynolds here,
coming back here on Wednesday. We're gonna try to mix
these in a little bit more. We've got an LPGA
event to discuss this week.
Speaker 3 (00:22):
A major, so we wanted to mix that in.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
West was doing a little bit of writing on it,
so we decided to get you at least a quick
pod on that and Wednesdays.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Again, we're gonna try to do these a little bit
more regularly.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Recap kind of all the bets that we've all landed
on for whatever PGA Tour event is going on.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
Definitely for the bigger tournaments.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
The elevated events and majors, we'll make sure to do
these on Wednesdays. Might be a couple that we miss
on some other weeks when they're not quite as big
a tournaments, but we're gonna try to mix these in
a little bit more for you and we'll continue definitely
during the majors. We'll continue those Friday after the cuts
for you guys. I know we've gotten some positive feedback
West from so from some of the fans out there.
(01:01):
I know sometimes on Tuesday, it is tough when Tuesday
we say it all the time. It's always tough for
us to figure out when to even record long shots
because it takes Vegas so long to get everything posts
right betting.
Speaker 3 (01:13):
Wise, that we don't even know fully know what bets
we make. So we appreciate everybody listen, you know, hit
the rate, hit the review, leave your comments.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
We always like to hear the feedback. But we're gonna
try to keep doing these a little bit more. We've
got a little bit of a special event to talk
about today, right, Yeah, we.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Do the Chevron Championship, as you mentioned, the first LPGA
major of the year. If you're not sure the lineage
of the Chevron Championship, it is the old Dinah Shore
event that was always the first major of the year
that used to be out in Mission Hills out in
southern California and actually started in nineteen seventy two, so
(01:50):
Dinah Shore, the former singer, actress, entertainer. It was her namesake.
The trophy is still called the Dinah Shore Trophy. Last
year it was the first it did move to the Woodlands,
which is just a little bit north of Houston because
of sponsor considerations for the Chevron Championships, so no longer
known as the Dinah Shore. But you've got you know,
(02:13):
obviously major championship field, a lot of pass major champions
I think thirty eight of the top forty and their
Rolex rankings, which is like their OWGR seven point nine
million dollar PERSE, which is actually increased by about one
hundred and fifty four percent.
Speaker 4 (02:27):
Since twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
So yeah, I kind of miss it at the old
at the old course that they always had it out
in California. But in terms of the you know, sponsor considerations,
it's like, Okay, we're putting money into this event and
actually paying a big purse and that is a big
time PERSE. I know, it seems like small potatoes when
we talk about the twenty million dollar PGA events and
then live and all that stuff, but this is big
(02:50):
and you know, it's a good trend though, because we've
seen it with the WNBA, you know, trying to put
more money into women's sports and more exposures. So big
event this weekend. Head of the field, though we talk
about Scotti Scheffler's dominance on the PGA Tour. Yeah, he's
being tromped here by world number one Nellie Korda, who's
(03:12):
won four straight events on the LPGA Tour coming into
this week. She's won twelve times on the tour, just
twenty five years of age, only looking for just her
second major though, because she's had injuries over the years.
She's had a back issue last year, she had the
blood clot in her arm in twenty twenty two where
she missed well over half the year.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
So finished third here on this venue last year.
Speaker 1 (03:34):
So she is well the favorite because I had to
look at the odds board and I was like, okay,
what's the second choice, because you're thinking, okay, second choice
might be like ten to one or twelve to one,
kind of like what we saw at the Masters last
twenty five to one. You have to go all the
way down to find the second choice. And these are
good players too, and major champions Jin Young Co, Taia Titeicule,
(03:55):
Brooke Henderson, Lydiaco, Patty tabatanik at Rojiang.
Speaker 4 (03:59):
Who at the American Star.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
I remember she was the number one amateur and the
NCAA champion at Stanford's won a couple of times on
the LPGA Tour. So yeah, you had to go like
way down to find a second choice here on the
odds board. So Nelly Corda very much the woman to
beat this weekend.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Well, let's play the normal Scotti Sheffler game then here
with Nelly. It really is impressing for to row uh.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
Four in a row and didn't she didn't she skip
a couple of weeks or something, two in the middle
in the ale of that, So it's it's not even
like she's just been rolling week after week.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It's almost even more impressive to me when when you
see someone do something like that. So four in a row,
fifth on deck, Okay, five to one of the outright market?
Speaker 3 (04:43):
How do you play this, Wes?
Speaker 2 (04:45):
I mean, I mean is she I mean we obviously
Scotty saw Scotty Scheffler a four to one takedown a
master's green jacket last week. So not a bad bet
on the men's side Is that a bat or a
good bet on the women's side here this week?
Speaker 4 (04:58):
Yeah? I don't think it's a bad bet.
Speaker 1 (05:00):
I mean, look at you know, uh, she is well
the woman to be I mentioned she was third last
year behind uh, Lily Avou won this as in a playoff.
Lily Avoo, by the way, is number two in the
Rolex rankings. Kind of been slow to start this year
and she's thirty three to one. Uh, you know, she
just got one top ten this season. Comes in a
little out of form. But you know, you don't often
(05:21):
see that a gap between world number one and world
number two five to one to thirty three to one,
and that's what and that's what you're seeing. So uh,
you know, if you I'm surprised Nellie quarter maybe isn't
a little shorter. I thought she might be like three
to one or four to one. Is five to one, yeah,
So so I mean it's Bata ball.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
Certainly?
Speaker 3 (05:41):
Does that say more? I don't want to I don't
want to say this wrong though.
Speaker 2 (05:46):
We didn't see these same kind of odds stacked up
like this though on the Masters last last week, right,
we we dipped down to about the ten to one range,
not the twenty five to one range. So I does
it tell you more about I mean, is there really
that big a separation right now between Nelly Korda and
the rest of the rest of the LPGA tour.
Speaker 4 (06:08):
There might be.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
And look, the LPGA tour has gotten better, I mean
it's gotten deeper over the years. Like there's a lot
of really good players out there that have won major
championships of late. And you know, like Alison Corpus who
won the US Women's Open. I think I saw her
at seventy to one at one shop out there. So
(06:30):
these are like recent major champions within like the last year,
and they're that far priced down because last year I
think you did have a couple of dark horses at
least win major championships and first time major winners. Lily
Avou of course, Lily Avoo, by the way, we had
four wins last year and won the Player of the
(06:50):
Year and it's thirty three to one, but if you like,
and she won two majors too, by the way, won
the Chevron also won the a G Women's Open, so
she shared that honor with Selene Boutier who also won
her for her fourth major last year or fourth overall win.
But yeah, there is a separation I think right now,
(07:11):
And it's not that these other people, these other players
are bad, it's that she's just that good right now
and just that dialed in you mentioned you know, this
started back twelve weeks ago actually is when Nelly Corner
started this streak and then you know, had about a
month and a half or two months off because she won,
(07:31):
uh just looking at her events here, she won one
of the open she won the opening one of the
opening events in Bradenton back in in January, and then
in March she wins in La.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
She I don't I don't know if she played in
any of.
Speaker 1 (07:45):
The international events because usually LPGA they go international, they
go over to Asia early in the year, they go
over to Thailand, and they go over to China. I
don't know if she played that events. But she won
the Sayre Pak Championship at Wilshire Country Club in La
then won the four Championship down in Arizona, and then
actually came out here to Vegas a couple of weeks
(08:07):
ago and won the match play which is stroke play
and then they seed them accordingly. The match play was
held at Shadow Creek Golf Club MGM big sponsor of that.
MGM I believe is the owner of that course now
and and ends up winning that match play. Like that's
a tough grind, you know, when you can win a
match play event where you got to play all these
(08:27):
matches and all this golf over four or five days.
Speaker 4 (08:31):
You know, she's just she's just on it right now.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
And I don't know, I think I think it might
have been Karen Stupples, who is a former LPGA Tour
player who's the commentator on golf channels, Like, I haven't
seen anybody play any better, and you've had these runs.
Several different players over the years have had these runs Onika,
of course the Raino Shoa. But but she's Nellie Gordon
right now.
Speaker 4 (08:51):
Just she looks unstoppable.
Speaker 2 (08:54):
Yeah, this is five to one outright plus one forty,
top five, one fifty top ten over at Draftings sports
Book right now. The Yeah, I might, I might shop
around for a top a top ten price on her.
I mean you just you look back from what she did,
what she's done from about middle of August to this point.
Speaker 3 (09:14):
I mean, she's top ten in.
Speaker 2 (09:18):
I think my quick math says about half the event
she's teeing it up in.
Speaker 3 (09:21):
So maybe a little bit more. Now there's really hot
streak that she's on right now.
Speaker 2 (09:27):
Man, Yeah, I might, I might be a shop around
a bit for me and check that out.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
The other one.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
The other one I don't even know how much you
look through is I'm just cycling through some of the
draftings markets right now.
Speaker 3 (09:38):
Would you rather play her five to one or plus
two thirty? Is top North American?
Speaker 4 (09:43):
Uh?
Speaker 1 (09:44):
Yeah, probably top because because she would be competing against uh,
against Brooke Henderson from Canada, she would be Rojiang lilya
vou as well. And then just going down to board
Allison Lee. He's actually played pretty well of.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Late, a lot of names out though.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
It does it does, so that might actually be a
better price because I was kind of looking to see, okay,
if I play a couple, and these would be obviously
very very minuscule and small bets, you know, kind of
just looking and you can't really go too far down
the board. But Patty t Patty Tavatani Kit from Thailand
twenty eight to one. She's already won a couple times
(10:23):
this year actually, both over in Asia. And she's a
really long, a long hitter too. And one of the
things I noticed just looking at this course, it's you
know about par seventy two, sixty eight seventy two, so
you know, the normal courses we talk about it's like, oh,
that's so short. That's actually the longest course on the
LPGA Tour. It's the club at Carlton Woods is where
(10:45):
they're playing this Jack Nicholas signature course, and Nicholas of
course designed this in twenty oh one, so you know,
link is really the main defense unless the wind picks up.
Speaker 4 (10:55):
Fairways are you know, about thirty.
Speaker 1 (10:57):
Yards wide on average, not exactly tight, but more on
the narrow side certainly than the wide side. Greens are
really big here about sixty eight hundred square feet roll
about twelve on the stamp, so you know, you got
to have some length here. I think when you're looking
at you know who can really drive the ball and
take advantage of par fives. Very common to what we
(11:20):
heard last week really at the Masters, you know, taking
advantage of those par fives. And Patty t is a
big hitter top ten and driving distance on the LPGA Tour.
And then another one I was looking at that you
could find I think at forty to one, I think
it's a bet. Three to sixty five is where the
best price is. Yucasaso out of Japan, also one of
the bigger hitters, So yeah, I want somebody that's going
(11:43):
to be able to hit it pretty long, like Nellie
Cord can hit it launch. He's not ranked that high
in terms of driving distance, you know, probably like thirtieth
or fortieth on the entire tour, but certainly has a
beautiful golf swing and really wins I think with their irons.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
I think that's really the best part of her game.
Speaker 3 (12:00):
Kind of like it.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
So yeah, no, no bets in the account for you. Yeah,
but we're just review one more time the ones you
were eyeing up.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
Patty Tavatanikad at twenty eight to one, Yucasaso at forty
to one. Both are former major champions, so they got
some major pedigree. So that's probably as deep as I
go here. But this will certainly be a pretty cool
event though, and you know, to see if Nelly Cory
can keep adding to history.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Yep, yeah, absolutely, yeah, some I'll definitely have my eye
on this weekend.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
The Okay, and the other thing we're gonna start trying
to try.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
To be doing on these Wednesday podcasts is just roll
through all of our bets that we've made for whatever
PGA Tour event is going on. We do have two
this week though, let's start krals puntakana. Actually, Wes, if
you don't mind if you have that stuff pulled up
in front.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Of you, I know you're the only one that betted
I I know I mentioned it yesterday Around the World podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:54):
I'm gonna end up making a Burger bet. It's a
forty to one in this type of feel that I
like Daniel Berger too much to stay away from that number, So.
Speaker 3 (13:04):
I've really got nothing to go off of that.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Dana Burger has not looked all that great since his
return return this season. I guess the best thing you
can say, Wes, right is he has played fairly consistency consistently,
so it's uh, I don't think he's had too many
gick ups, at least with the with the.
Speaker 1 (13:20):
Yeah, and this is a downfield to you know, obviously,
you know most of the top guys are playing up
at the RBC Heritage in Hilton Head, so yeah, yeah,
I could certainly sponsored it's one of those events. Because
it's the alternate event. It's tough to make an argument
against most players.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Right, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (13:41):
It's very random, which is why I'm probably not going
to have many, if any like placement.
Speaker 4 (13:46):
Markets on on this, I think call yep.
Speaker 1 (13:50):
Because usually the placements can kind of help you, you know,
if you don't hit these outright, especially in a crapchewed
event like this, get money back. But it's like I'd
be willing to take the loss here if none of
my guys hit just it's so hard and it's so
random here.
Speaker 4 (14:03):
I think with placement markets.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
I think that's a great call. We often talk about
it on long Shots, and we talk about it with
PGA Tour offense. Even if just the higher variance tournaments
those being we love, we love subscribe, endorse and promote
people betting into into those markets as a way to
really help build your bankroll and kind of keep it
alive in between outright hits. But some tournaments they make
(14:27):
way more sense that than others. And I think that
there if it's a tournament that whether it's whether it's weather,
whether it's water, water on the course, whether it's you know,
a whole lot of factors that can make it just
a higher variance result oriented course. It's something that I
tried a little bit more lightly than if I'm looking
(14:49):
at especially like top twenty, top forties, because it's just
you know, one bad round or something completely blows you up,
takes you out of it, and you know, could just
ruin that bet where you're probably gonna have sunk it
a little bit more money. So I got's a good
call for an event like this. I think it's a
good one, especially if you are focused more on the
RBC Heritage. Anyways, throw a couple outrights in, few outrights
(15:11):
in if they're guys. He got feels on, you know,
and that's that's a good way.
Speaker 3 (15:16):
To do it. So who did you end up landing
on again? I remember a couple of years from yesterday,
but roll through them for the audience.
Speaker 1 (15:22):
Yeah, for the Corralsputtakana Nate Lashley twenty eight to one.
Speaker 4 (15:28):
Very good coastal form.
Speaker 1 (15:29):
Actually won here on this course in twenty seventeen when
it was a corn ferry event. Victor Perez thirty three
to one, who just missed out getting a spot at
the RBC Heritage as part of that a on swing five.
He ended up number six third last month at the
alternate event in Puerto Rico, so he's got experience on
this paspalum type of greens. Sam Stevens thirty five to one.
(15:50):
Fifty four hole leader last year, eventually finished third. Maddy
Schmid fifty five to one, also a guy that goes
good in some of these coastal events. Third and Bermuda
late last year. Ten than Puerto Rico back in March.
Peter Quest sixty six to one. One of the longer
hitters and better putters in this field. I struggled a
little bit on the corn Ferry to start the season,
but two weeks ago tenth at the Valero and then
(16:13):
one kind of shot in the dark Alex Fitzpatrick eighty
to one. Of course, his brother Matt is defending the
RBC Heritage title there at Hilton Head, where they vacation
frequently as a family when they were young, so took
a shot with Alex Fitzpatrick at eighty to one.
Speaker 2 (16:30):
I feel like I'm all right, Okay, Well, first of all,
I'm gonna add on. I'm gonna I'm gonna tail West
this week on Sam Stevens Maddy Schmid. Yeah, we've bet
Maddie a couple times this year at different points in
PGA tour. I think that game's definitely there. Sam Stevens,
I think you just broke it down. Well, both those guys,
and they're guys we've touched in kind of main PGA
(16:51):
tour events already.
Speaker 3 (16:52):
We've played a couple times.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
So I'm gonna tell you on those two, I'm gonna
throw in Daniel Berger just small outright bets for me
this week. On those, I'm gonna tell West on a
couple I think those are smart selections for this course.
I'll tell you, Wes, did you tell you did you
ever take any regular like family vacations like that when
you were a kid. I don't know why that's this
story kind of drives me, Yeah, because I feel like
(17:16):
I feel like we heard about it like three year
two or three years ago, and like I'm already it's
like one of the most tiring tour like tour stories
every year. Like as the Fitzpatrick family, I.
Speaker 1 (17:28):
Envy them because we did not take it take a
lot of those, especially.
Speaker 3 (17:33):
When you're coming from England. You know, that's a nice
little trip would come all the way over from England.
Speaker 1 (17:38):
We went to like King's Island like in Cincinnati from Indianapolis.
Speaker 4 (17:42):
Like that's about. That's about it.
Speaker 1 (17:44):
No, like elaborate, nice, lovely holiday as they call it
over in Europe.
Speaker 2 (17:49):
Yeah, I mean, I guess, I guess the closest thing
that I've got is, uh, when we were living overseas
when I was a kid, and we'd come back to
the United States like every summer in between cool semesters.
But like that was just to you know, like get
a few weeks of Americana back in our veins before
we shipped back around Russia or Caracas, Venezuela.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
You know. I mean, I was like, just get back
to the States and need a damn.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
Hit, a damn cheeseburger or something like that, you know.
So I guess that's the closest I I could get to.
Speaker 3 (18:20):
But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
I didn't really have a special family vacation like that
every single year. And uh, sorry for the spoiler alert
for everybody who didn't know that, because I'm sure you're
going to hear about it eighteen times on the CBS
broadcast this we yeah, so CBS now right, ever since
The Masters takes over, right we start CBS, Yeah.
Speaker 1 (18:39):
Yeah, especially with Matt Fitzpatrick. I actually, uh on the RBC,
I did win that last year with mattah you to
sweat that out in a playoffs, so hopefully uh, going
back to back. Although fits Norah mister Speed, who is
the other playoff participant or not on my card this week.
Fits probably is a placement market play, like a top
twenty that I'm gonna add this afternoon.
Speaker 2 (19:00):
Yeah, Wes, I lost it there for one sec. But yeah,
let's just roll right into the RBC heritage and everything.
Speaker 3 (19:06):
That you did. Bet.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
I know, yeah, you hit on Fits last.
Speaker 1 (19:08):
Year, so keep it rolling, buddy, Yeah, yeah, and I'm
going to have him obviously, I think like top twenty
placement market, but not from the outright So from the
outright perspective, Patrick can't Lay eighteen to one. Not great form,
but look course for the course here always good on.
Pete dies four top threes in his six appearance this year.
Tommy Fleetwood twenty two to one. I thought played very well.
(19:30):
He wasn't like right in the mix, like when you
look and say he finished third at Augusta. It's not
like he was a challenger. But he kept getting better
as the week went on, you know, just kind of
started out slow and then kept getting better.
Speaker 4 (19:41):
So Tommy Fleetwood I think really fits this course.
Speaker 1 (19:44):
Cameron Young twenty eight to one, still looking for that
first PGA Tour win much like Tommy Fleetwood. Tom Kim
fifty to one low round of the Sunday at the Masters,
shot at six under sixty six. Maybe that's some positive momentum.
I actually hope the wind blows a little bit more
because I think that would be better for him, because
he's very good in the wind over in Europe last summer.
Speaker 3 (20:04):
Yeah, Wes, you.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Did mention that yesterday when we were recording. I thought
that was an interesting note because it really does feel
like that ever since Tom Kim's kind of burst onto
the scene. I mean, you really have the.
Speaker 3 (20:15):
More notable events.
Speaker 2 (20:17):
It feels like with him, where he's had good performances
have kind of come with some gross weather conditions, and
I don't know what to read into that. I always
feel like it's I feel like it's unfair when sometimes
these guys get tagged with the you know, the label
of hell, yeah he plays great through rain, or sometimes
especially sometimes when it's really lazy analysis, sometimes we're like, hey,
(20:37):
he's an Australian, he clearly can play in the wind,
or like something like you know, or hey he's Scottish,
he must be great in the rain, And you're like okay,
but like I don't I don't know how many times
the guy's actually played in the rain, you know what
I mean. Like, so I feel like there's sometimes just
like that lazy go to golf analysis, but like it's
something when you bring you pick up something like that
(20:58):
on a younger guy like this, it's something to keep
your eye on. I'm not saying he's an auto bet
whenever there's bad conditions, but it's become a trend with him,
So something to keep an eye on. Because we've also
seen him have some rather poor performances, you know what
I mean, kind of mixed in throughout. So I don't
know interesting, but I'm with you that Sunday Masters's performance
(21:19):
caught my eye. I think he rolls in at least
with some momentum this week.
Speaker 4 (21:22):
Yeah, and he also waited around at the end there.
Speaker 1 (21:26):
He's actually a very good buddy and probably one of
Scotti Schffler's closest friends on the PGA tour. So sometimes
it's like when your buddy wins, you tend to play well.
I don't you know, I don't have any data to
back that up, but I've noticed that over the years,
and so I think Tom Kim could go okay this week,
and then finishing out the card Christian bezzeidenhout at sixty
(21:49):
six to one, Cepstraca sixty six to one, Taylor Moore
seventy to one.
Speaker 4 (21:53):
Mister consistency.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
He hadn't missed a cut this year on the PGA Tour,
made All ten runner up a couple weeks ago in Houston,
Fifteen in a row.
Speaker 4 (22:00):
He's actually made since the Open Championship.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, I like that He's on my card as well.
I was gonna roll through matts first, but that leads
me nicely into mind, so I'll just start with mine. Actually, yeah,
I did bet him. I'm going light on the outrights
again this week. With old Scottie Scheffler seemingly still in
the field, I follow up, you know, update from our
podcast yesterday if you listen to it, Scotty Shuffler not
(22:25):
breaking news, still in the field.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
The NBC average.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
We'll have to see if anything ends up happenated with that,
but yeah, I do have so. I in anticipation of
him withdrawing and pulling out of this tournament, I did
bet Cameron Young. I was kind of ran numbers quick
from last year, bet Cameron Young and Corey Connors.
Speaker 3 (22:45):
Earlier in the week.
Speaker 2 (22:46):
I'm not necessarily sure I'd be a gung ho on
them now after looking at some stuff, but I, like
I said on the podcast yesterday, for anybody that listened
to Hey, Wes is on one of them, Matt's on
the others, that sure makes me feel a lot better
with Cameron Young, Corey Connors all.
Speaker 3 (22:59):
The other outr that I played was Akha Batilla.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
We talked a lot about him yesterday, but he really
spiked high and almost everything that I ran.
Speaker 3 (23:06):
So did play him in the outright market.
Speaker 2 (23:08):
At top twenty, and I've got a little bit more
matchup researcher. I gotta see if there's one out there.
I didn't see any yesterday that I really liked him in,
so I left him alone there. Taylor Moore I played
in the top twenty market as well as Seawou Kim.
I did at Seawou yesterday as after we had that
conversation on him, so top twenties on sea wou ox
(23:28):
Jay Taylor Moore played Taylor Moore in a matchup over
Chris Kirk and then Top ten on Xanders shoft Lee
at plus one oh five. I feel like that is
the bet I've heard kind of touted around the most
this week, which, look, I understand I've been betting Xander
top ten and seemingly every tournament here for the past
two months. It's one of the few things that's actually
(23:50):
worked out worked out okay for me betting on golf
here this season. So I'm gonna keep going back to that.
Got that at plus money. I would just watch the
move been on that if that goes all the way.
I think I saw that as low as minus win
thirty a and that price is starting to get a
little out of control, so I'd probably cut that off
at some point. As far as Matt Brown's bets at
(24:11):
all of ours, Matt's mine and West is all at
vson dot com.
Speaker 3 (24:15):
He is on.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
Shoftley, I know outright he did mention he's got dialond
back Mount he's betting into outrights, but he basically does
bet outrights at least small and all these guys usually
grabs a pool players and then splits it up kind
of outright top five, top ten, or goes if their
longer roag'e top twenty, top forty. So he went Xander
outright top five, top ten, Sea Wu outright top five,
(24:39):
top ten, Shane Lowry outright top five, top ten, Corey
Connor's outright in a top ten, Aha Battilla outright in
the top ten, and then Nick Taylor outright in a
top twenty. So that is Matt Brown's bets. Again, get
all of Wes's mind and Matt's bets every single week
(24:59):
for every PGA to event up at Visa dot com.
I know I did mention yesterday West Uh looking at
that first round leader market, I haven't made Uh. I
haven't made any bets yet, which is bad on me. Sorry,
I should have been had those locked in ready to go.
I can tell you though, I'm going to play Xander
and ox Shay uh in that market, will be.
Speaker 3 (25:21):
Playing probably outright first round leader.
Speaker 2 (25:24):
But again, if you listen to the podcast yesterday, if
you didn't, I suggest you go back, uh and listen
to it, because what are you doing, man?
Speaker 3 (25:30):
You gotta you gotta listen to at least.
Speaker 2 (25:31):
The big Tuesday one. All these all these other ones
we we kind of sprinkling around. The Tuesday one is
the big one, though, I mean the Wednesday morning because
that's what it released Wednesday morning.
Speaker 3 (25:40):
Sorry, I should refer.
Speaker 2 (25:41):
To it as that I will be playing Ox Shay Xander,
and I think see wu I'm gonna dabble in probably
those three definitely Auk Shane Sander, that I'll be playing
first round leader, and then again look around shop around
those first round leader, top five, top ten markets. I
think you have a lot of value in them in
these tournaments that you know are gonna be.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
A little tougher, tougher to scoring more of those.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
Scores bunched up, and if ties pay in full, that
can be an extremely valuable bet. It's something that I've
been experimenting with more this year. Not gonna lie, not
that I've had I've had a ton of success with
it so far, but I think in certain tournaments with
smaller fields, where you know two scoring is a little tougher,
I think those those bets just just inherently have a
(26:26):
little bit more value value in them. So a little
bit new market for us out here in Vegas, but
it's one that I'm experimenting with, playing around with a
little bit more this year, and I think there's some
potential there at certain events for it to be a
very profitable market. So that is what I'm gonna be
dipping my toes in too. All Right, that'll do it
for this one. We started off strong, we faded at
(26:48):
the end.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
It's okay.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
It happens sometimes with technology.
Speaker 3 (26:50):
For West Reynolds. I'm Kelly Bedlin. Good luck with all
your golf bets this week.
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