May 14, 2024 • 44 mins
Matt Brown, Kelley Bydlon, and Wes Reynolds preview the PGA Championship from Valhalla Golf Course in Louisville. Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler is a sizable favorite to win his second major of the year. The guys give their course breakdown of Valhalla and their stats that matter for the PGA Championship. Also, best bets for the PGA Championship!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
This is long Shots, Vison's premier golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hello to a very special edition of long Shots here
on Vson. Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin, coming to
you man. Scotty Scheffler back in the field. Maybe that
makes this tournament a little less appealing, but we're going
to break it down top to bottom anyway. Whenever we
get going here, I mean, let's we'll look back just
a tad to look forward. Here, guys, we did get
(00:33):
a Scotti Chef Scheffler less field last week in which
Rory McElroy goes out and gets the win. And you know,
I think some narratives that are going to be coming
out of that tournament might be that, you know, here
we are again, Xander Shopley can't get it done. And
you know, Kelly, I look at that more along the
lines of everybody on the face of the planet not
(00:53):
named Scotty was just gonna get beat on Sunday when
you have Rory playing at the peak of his abilities
and goes out and he goes an officially six hunder.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
He took the seven hunder to the eighteenth.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
He took the eighteenth toll off because you knew he
could have quatted it to still win the to win
the tournament. So you know he took the bogee, no
big deal, played super conservatively, but you know, going any
shoots basically seven hunder, I understand officially six hunder. With that,
There's just sometimes in golf, you can you're just gonna
get beat and like yours, you're gonna get beaten.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Sometimes you're the.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
One who says it very often, Matt.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
There are every one of these golfers on tour is
very very good, and then when you talk about the
upper class of players like a Rory McElroy, sometimes they
just go nuclear.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
That's what happened.
Speaker 5 (01:35):
I think, like you said, I don't know that anybody
was really catching him there. I don't really care what
the name was. And look it's a it's at a
course that he's played pretty dang well at before, so
I ain't no surprise there. It's you know, I don't
know if I'm starting to feel bad for Xander or
just you know, it's it's just.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Kind of what you are, man.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
But like you're still really really really good and I'm
still gonna keep betting on you, just not to win.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
The thing is he could have gone four under West.
He's loses, you know, I mean, like play a great round.
I know he didn't, but I mean he still could
have gone for under him, still would have lost. It's just,
you know, sometimes really good golfers are just going to
play better than other good.
Speaker 6 (02:09):
Golf Yeah, seven top tens this year now for Xander.
Speaker 7 (02:12):
And just you know, hasn't been able to finish, but
you know, still a top ten player in the world.
But you guys mentioned, of course Scotty little Bennett apparently
has arrived.
Speaker 6 (02:22):
We found that out.
Speaker 7 (02:23):
I guess they kept it secret for for about a
week and then Bob Harry get ESPN wrote that he
the baby has been delivered. We expect Scotty to be
on the grounds of Valhalla and he currently is at Louisville.
Speaker 6 (02:34):
By the way, I got my Louisville Cardinals color go
right back today. But so Scotty is there, as is Rory.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
But we have two different narratives now this week, you know,
because we always talk about like nappy factor in terms
of you know, when you have a child, when you
get married, a seminal moment in your life. So Scotty
has baby nappy factor and Rory apparently now based on
the news today, has divorced nappy factors. So some things
that's a good thing. Some think that's a bad thing. So,
(03:03):
by the way, Scotty and Rory, they both come in
off win Scotty at the RBC Heritage, Rory at the
Wells Fargo. Also Brooks Kepka who won it lives Singapore.
So three at the top four on the odds board,
including a defending champion.
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Kopka come off a win. So can't ask for better
for him than that?
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Yeah, no, absolutely, So we do head to Louisville, Kentucky
for the PGA Championship over at Valhalla. Guys, looking at
this odds board, Scotti Scheffler at the top of the
odds board, as we would expect, he's four to one
to win the tournament. He's plus one O five to
top five. It's just like you basically even money for
him to top five.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Matt, can you sell me a sixteen hundred dollars for
a top forty on.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Him minus two hundred to top ten.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
I mean, it's just but that's the point that we've
gotten to here with Scotty Scheffer, Ory McElroy, as West
mentioned coming off of his win plus seven fifties, and
Or Shofley coming off second place finish fourteen to one,
John rom Now down to sixteen to one, Brooks Kepka
sixteen to one, Ludbig Over at DraftKings at twenty two
to one. Best price you're going to find in the
market over there on him, Bryson Shambeau twenty eight, Colin
(04:05):
Moore Kala at thirty, Homa thirty five, Woking Nieman thirty five,
Wyndham Clark all the way out to forty.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Can't lay with the big drift out to forty.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Victor Hovelin also big drift out to forty five, as
is cam Smith.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Everybody else fifty to one or longer. West.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
When you kind of take a look at this, at
this odds board, even with us, even with the influx
of the live players, even with Ludwig being back in
the field, even with Rory coming off of a win,
we still find Scotty at four to one, and it's
very very hard to poke a hole in that number.
I mean, you know, it's like we would like to
think oh okay, here comes John Rahman, and here comes
Cam Smith, and here comes We're certainly we're gonna get
(04:40):
a longer number on Scottish Shelfer. Now the books ain't
giving us money for free.
Speaker 6 (04:43):
No they're not.
Speaker 7 (04:44):
And despite the fact that Rory has won his last
two events now one was a team event in New
Orleans with Shane Lowry. Now at the zer A Classic
in New Orleans and then Wells Fargo. Of course last
week fourth time he's won at Quail Hollow, So Rory
got a little bit of a shortening. You know, if
he was fourteen to one, I think everybody'd be playing him.
But you know, at plus seven point fifty, that's probably
(05:06):
the right price. Here he's still the clear number two
player in the world. And then he got Xander in
between there at fourteen to one. In between these three
guys that have the lead in wins Brooks no surprise that,
you know, It's like you feel like you should get
a little bit bigger on Brooks. But he's the big
game hunter and he is trying to go back to
back at the PGA Championship for the second time in
his career.
Speaker 6 (05:26):
So you know, he did it last year.
Speaker 7 (05:28):
Of course I won at oak Hill, but remember when
he won at bell Reeve a couple of years ago,
and then one that won the next year, So he's
trying to do it twice, So no surprises. I think
really at the odds board, Ludvig has maybe gone up
a little bit because of a potential injury concern because
apparently he was like Stripe showing it at least a
little bit in the practice rounds, but he was holding
his knee and that's what he cided when he withdrew
(05:51):
from the Wells Fargo last week.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Kelly, when you looked at the odds board when all
the odds finally kind of came out and got a
little bit of action here, was there anything that jumped
off the page? G you, Was there any kind of
notable something? And you know, again, we'll get to all
of our bests a little bit later. But was there
anything that you just looked at and that right off
the bat right? Wow, that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I mean, I do.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Think we've got to the point with Scotty Scheffler of Hey,
if you want to tell me that's the only bet
you're gonna make this tournament.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I really can't push back on it, right, it is every.
Speaker 5 (06:16):
All the numbers we run, and we're gonna dive deep
into that as this as the show goes on, and
what we really look at stat wise for this course overall,
and now we view these guys, Look, he's number one,
he's number one, and everything we run, I can't argue
with anybody going in to put a bed in on him,
especially when he's racking up these wins like he is.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
However, I do think.
Speaker 5 (06:34):
It's at least slightly more wide open with I mean, look,
this is you guys know, I'm.
Speaker 4 (06:39):
Not the biggest roary guy.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
I can't deny back to back wins that he's coming
in with Brooks Koepka don't know fully know even what
to make him live tours still at this point.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
But okay, a win and win. I looked at putting numbers.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Where he putted the heck out of the ball.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Last week, so I can't argue that.
Speaker 5 (06:59):
And then there's John when we talk, you know, big
game hunters, who's always around.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Okay, he's there.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
Too, So I do feel like it's maybe a little
bit more open than some of these events we've talked about,
just even in the recent past.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
So those all jumped out to me.
Speaker 5 (07:12):
I mean, I think the Ludwig pricing continues to be
interesting to me.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
I mean, the guy, the guy just went drew with
an injury.
Speaker 6 (07:18):
He's coming back right away.
Speaker 7 (07:19):
He gets the benefit of the doubt and a lot
in the market because he's obviously super talented and he's
runner up at the Masters. But this is a guy
that gets priced like he's about a two or three
time major winner.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Well, I think Matt said this before.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
I think there's just a lot of I think, especially
from some of the sharper golf guys out there, there's
a lot of guys that just refuse, refuse to let
him win and not have a ticket on him.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Right.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
So that's why we keep seeing that price be driven down.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Maybe ad me to the list this week. We'll see
whenever that all goes down. So PJA Championship at val
Hollo that's in Louisville, Kentucky. Seventy six hundred and nine
yards par seventy one, our longest par seventy one on tour.
Got some bitgrass greens look like they're gonna be firm
and fast, pretty small in size. It looks like we
have some d rough and some bunkers out there west.
But you know they've made some changes to this course
(08:04):
since the last time that we did see it. So
I mean, I'm not saying course history means absolutely nothing here,
but it is going to be a different course than
you have seen in any of the prior iterations that
you may or may not be looking back on in
your research.
Speaker 7 (08:16):
Yeah, it's about one hundred yards longer than it played
in twenty fourteen. Fairways about thirty yards wide on average,
so not exactly wide, not totally narrow, so maybe wider
than some major championships, not quite us open narrow that
we see, but still on the narrower side. Get some
elevation here, so you get some shots with uneven lies,
seven water holes. There's a stream Floyd's Fork that meanders
(08:38):
throughout the course. You got to keep it in the
fairway though you do have four inch fescue bluegrass rough.
But the big change that you did to ease there
is really with the agronomy here, the fact that the
fairways used to be bent and grass.
Speaker 6 (08:52):
Now there's zoyser grass. Because the club Valhalla.
Speaker 7 (08:54):
Feels like it's easier to maintain in the summer So
those Zoysa fairways which you see at like East Lake
for the Tour Championship, in Atlanta, at South Wind and
Memphis for the FedEx Saint Jude Invitational.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
The Zoisia has a little.
Speaker 7 (09:06):
Bit more balance and it's going to be a little
firmer and faster, which is going to increase the distance.
But you may have some of these shots roll out
of the fairway and that's not what you want here,
especially if you get in that deeper cut greens. For
as big of a course as this is, these are
really small greens five thousand square feet, fifth smallest on tour,
thirteen to fourteen on the stimp. They're going to be
super fast, like they always are at a major championship.
Speaker 6 (09:28):
Front nine is a little bit easier.
Speaker 7 (09:29):
Back nine I think has kind of more the character
of this Jack Nicholas design.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, one of the interesting things we'll see, I think
from a choice standpoint that these guys come to make
Kelly is there's sixty two bunkers out there, and from
the last time we saw this course, there used to
be a little bit of a protective rim from rough
around the bunkers pill Maas they removed all of that,
and so now anything just you know, there were still
some of these shots that were making into these bunkers
(09:55):
and these faraway bunkers, but now there's no protection whatsoever.
If you are off at all on your head and
toward to one of these bunkers, it's gonna suck it
right up. And so there might be some choices of
either different lines to be taken or maybe less than
driver too.
Speaker 5 (10:08):
Yeah, I mean, I think from a couple of the
notes I read up on, right, we've had a little
bit hotter than usual. You know, springtime out there firmed
out some of these fair ways, right, so you need
even more of that runout. As you were talking about Wes,
you know what, we're looking at four inches worth of
rough but I've heard a couple of things. Oh but
it might even be a little longer than that, just
(10:28):
because of those that hot spring really let some of
that grass grow out.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
So gonna be interesting to watch that.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
I mean, we're gonna dive into everything that we looked
at modeling wise, stat wise, but.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
You gotta be long and you gotta be accurate off
the tee.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Both of those are going to go a long way.
Speaker 7 (10:43):
Typical Nicholas you know, it's always quote unquote second shot
golf course really at every Nicholas design that you see
played out on the tour, and this is no exception.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Keith Reese is the GM of Valhalla and has been
since twenty thirteen, and basically they were asking him about
some of the changes that been made to the course
out there, and he said, hey, if you hit good shots,
you can get rewarded out here. He's like, there are
some chances to score, but if you hit bad shots,
it can punish you in a hurry on each and
every hole. So he said, basically, there will be trouble
(11:13):
on each and every hole if you are too wayward
in all of this. And so that's some of the
stuff that we'll have to monitor. Really, we're full disclosure.
We are recording this on a Tuesday morning, so some
of this stuff is going to change up up to
tee off, and we will certainly try to keep you
informed of all of that over on the Twitter machine
as well. With all this, when we come back, we're
going to talk about the stats that matter. What did
(11:33):
our models look at here on long Shots?
Speaker 1 (11:40):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, West Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It is long Shots Golf Enting podcast here on the
Vson podcast Network special edition for the PGA Championship. Matt Brown,
West Reynolds, Kelly Beblin come and to you and just
looked at the odds boards, talked a little bit about
what the course looks like to make up the changes
that they put in over the course of the last instance.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
We saw this right.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
This was used to be a public course, then got
bought and then out it's private course. So you and
I can't go play it. We're not famous enough to
go play it. But you know, maybe there are some
people out there that know someone that have played it here.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
You know what, Matt, at some point in my life,
I'd like to just view a large piece of land
and be like, this would be a great part three
to go right over here in this little quails nest.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
But I don't know.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
All these guys give me five hundred acres of property
and I can maybe think of something I always talk about.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I always think of this whenever I'm like playing a
golf course and I'm kind of looking around and going like,
how did this guy think exactly, Yeah, this was this
was flat dirt that looked like nothing, and how did
he decide that this was going It.
Speaker 7 (12:46):
Was like like Will Hollow last week was on a
dairy farm originally. So I always liked these little stories
about the history and how these clubs get.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
The way it all goes down is wild and crazy.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
So guys, if you're just if you're new to shots,
you might be seeing us here on visa for the
first time. We will talk about modeling and and we
do run models, but with that, it's not models that
we did ourselves. So I just want to clear the air.
Neither none of the three of us are coders. We're
using someone else's uh we should call it like a
you know, the bones, and then we're kind of putting
(13:18):
in the meat of that and then it spits out
what it is. So we're we're putting the stats in,
we're putting we're waiting those stats as to how important
we think they are for any given week. But how
the algorithm forms, what things get spit out that has.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Nothing to do with us. So I just want to
clear that up.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Whenever we say are modeling and people are write about,
hey man, how do you start to how do you model,
I'm like, I have no idea, I don't have any clue,
no clue.
Speaker 5 (13:38):
And we use multiple sites I think are always worth
shouting out. I mean Fantasy National, betspursricrundgod dot Com just
a few of the ones that that we use.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I'm using bet the number a little bit now for me.
So yeah, so there's there's several of the.
Speaker 7 (13:53):
And the Rick run Good. I'll give special mention for
this week because that's where you're going to find a
lot of live data. You know, at least you know
it's not exact case live, doesn't you know, provide like
I think, really advanced stats to give like GIR and
driving distance and your basic boiler plate stuff. But uh yeah,
with all the live players that we do have in
the field this week, be careful because some of it
(14:15):
may not have the updated data at least for this seat.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Yeah, that is that is definitely worth pointing out. Some
of these some of the all modeling sides are not
created equals basically what we're saying, because you could come
out and why is I'm not getting a single one
of these dudes that I think I should be getting
and it's probably because the data isn't in there.
Speaker 7 (14:29):
Because usually, like on Fantasy National, I will use that
most weeks just for PGA Tour stuff because I know
that that's updated, so.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
I don't have to worry about Okay, I.
Speaker 7 (14:38):
Got to account for Keptcat or I gotta account for
Rom or Deshamba or any of these guys.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
So each and every week go in, we decide what
we want to plug into those models and just how
much we want to wait that, and then we get
the results, and that kind of starts to narrow our
playing player pool and how we end up making some
bets here. So, h Kelly, I'll start with you this week.
We've talked a ton about distance already, so get it.
We're gonna be talking a lot about distance. So outside
of distance, what were you looking at as far as
(15:05):
you're kind of building blocks here?
Speaker 7 (15:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (15:07):
I mean again, I think you know distance, and I
think accuracy is important this week, right too. I as
you broke down west, we're talking narrow fairways, not the narrowest,
but narrow fairways.
Speaker 4 (15:17):
And it's still gonna be a lot better hitting off.
Speaker 5 (15:19):
The fairway than in four inch fiveitch whatever you're going
to be dealing with with that ugly.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Rough So yeah, that's important. Stuff definitely looked at off
the tee, you know, pretty pretty dang important this week overall.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
So so so wes like I kind of want to
jump in on here because I how heavily did you
go into it? Guys, Because like so I did. I
did off the tee, I did, I did driving distance.
I also I also did.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Total drive driving.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Yeah, and like so I mean I I kind of
hit it from all different angles. Need to here with this,
like more than I normally ever would well dido for
me too.
Speaker 7 (15:52):
I think off the tea is going to be the
most important thing this week.
Speaker 6 (15:56):
Total driving.
Speaker 7 (15:57):
Of course, that means driving distance plus driving accuracy, Like
if you're looking at like the basic pgatour dot com,
that's what that means, the distance rank plus the accuracy rank,
and then other sides taken into account total driving. I
did strokes gained off the T as well. Rory, by
the way, when he won here in twenty fourteen was
first for strokes.
Speaker 6 (16:14):
Gained off the T.
Speaker 7 (16:14):
So you better be able to get it out there
a little bit and then you know, keep it in play.
And then I did use distance because I think that
this is a place I don't want to say bomb
and gouge, but this is a place where if you're long,
that's going to at least ameliorate some of the mistakes
that could potentially be made off.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
If there's a mistake that will be made for me
this week in the modeling, it will be over emphasizing
driving distance, and it might come to it might have
to be something that I have to pivot in the
middle of the tournament and make some in tournament bets
because if this does do what some people are saying
it could do, which is if this does dry out
a little bit, and if this does run out much
(16:53):
much further and stuff, it's going to take away some
of that advantage that these longer hitters have because it
they'll still be longer. But if a who's typically two
eighty five off the tee is now three hundred or
three oh five off the tee, that's an extra club
that he's gaining on the way in, And so I
might have to pivot there a little bit, because that
was one of the things that crossed my mind. I'm like, man,
I know I want to emphasize distance, but if this
(17:14):
is going to be much faster, like they're saying, that's
going to take some of that out of there.
Speaker 5 (17:18):
So the other part of that, I think that's interesting
too is it is the greens, right, because that the greens.
You're not talking huge greens, and if they firm out
a little bit, that's where it goes back to. You
want the guys that are longer so they can hit
thet higher loft wedges.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
And irons into those greens that they land a little softer.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
Weather Man, Kelly, real quick, it does look like right
as of right now, Friday is going to be your
day where you're going to get the most rain. Thursday
looking pretty clean for those first round leader bets. But
somebody keep in mind as you're there.
Speaker 7 (17:48):
Was a lot of rain today by the way, as
we record on Tuesday afternoon, so pretty much practice washed out.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Yeah, Wes.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
One of the things you mentioned about the Zoisa fairways,
which is a little bit interesting, just we have those
at a few courses out here in Vegas that I've
been able to go out on, and while I'm nowhere
near in the even same breath of any of these guys,
what I will say is this is the the ball
on that grass, so the grass a little bit, firmer
a little bit, it's almost like.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
It's sitting on it, almost on a tea.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Like I love playing off of those because it is
just like the way that the ball. So for these guys,
I think what we're gonna see too, is the extra
bonus of being in the fairway because they're gonna get
very very clean strokes off of this fairway and like
what they're gonna be able to do, I'm guessing with
these irons and the spin they're gonna be able to
(18:39):
get and all stuff like that. Like, I think we're
gonna see some special shots over the course of this tournament,
so long as guys are playing out the fair well.
Speaker 7 (18:45):
And one of the reasons I did still use a
proach here, which we're gonna use at least to some
extent almost every week, is because you do have potentially
for being in thicker rough and then you have elevated greens.
So that's gonna make it a little more unpredictable because
you're gonna have to really put the ball on the fairways.
And Nicholas always reiterate myself always likes the second shot
(19:05):
golf course. So when you're looking at these iron shots
to one seventy five to two hundred two hundred plus,
So that's what you're gonna want to look at. So
approach is still going to matter, but off the t
is obviously going to set everything up.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
So from a scoring standpoint, Kelly, did we did you
get to Bartie or better?
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Did you get to bo Gave? What did you get to?
You know what?
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Are maybe part five scoring? Was there anything from a
scoring standpoint look at this way?
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Absolutely?
Speaker 5 (19:30):
So I'm gonna say, like it's this is a major right,
Almost everything matters here.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Every part of the game matters to some degree.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
Right Where did I really emphasize though off the t
the stuff we just talked about, right, approach is always
going to matter. When you just brought that up those
proximity buckets, what you know, one seventy five to two
hundred two hundred plus, Yes, I looked at that heavily.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
I've factored in.
Speaker 5 (19:50):
Par five scoring almost as much here as I've ever done.
Speaker 4 (19:53):
Where you just look at who scores?
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Where do you score on this course?
Speaker 5 (19:57):
It comes on the par five So absolutely part five
I factored it heavily this week.
Speaker 4 (20:02):
And then yeah, and then some bogie avoidance, and then.
Speaker 5 (20:04):
The rest right, scrambling around the green play all that
just smaller because all that stuff's going to come into play.
Speaker 4 (20:10):
But those are the areas I focused on.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
The most mat Yeah, and then west. Is there anything
did you do scrambling around the green? Any of those
stuff like the sand saves? Did that make it into
the model?
Speaker 6 (20:20):
I did scrambling.
Speaker 7 (20:21):
I think that's going to be important this week because
there are some tricky chips. There is some rough around
the green here, so it's pretty lush, so you're gonna
have to be creative and you're gonna have to chip well,
I think around these greens because these greens are very small,
so you're going to miss some of them. So I
did scrambling game, I did bogie avoidance. I know you
guys are usually team no pot. I did do a
little bit of putting this week, just for context. It's
(20:43):
not going to ever be huge in terms of a percentage,
but strokes gain putting on fast greens because these are
going to be thirteen fourteen on the stimp on the weekend.
And then bent grass because you are getting pure bent grass,
you're not getting that bent poa mix that we see
so frequently on the PGA tour. So I did do
a little putting.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
I put in one percent of grass putting strictly to
have it in there to be able to look at
because what I what you do hear from these guys
and some guys the bent grass doesn't trick them and
it and they can just read it a lot better
than other guys. And there are other guys with the
way that that grass looks down there whenever they cut
it up, that it just sometimes just doesn't work well.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
Rather so obviously some guys.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Are just put so much better on bermuda than they
do on bent because bermuta just doesn't have that kind
of tricky grain to it.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
And so I didn't at least put that in there
as a tiebreaker.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
I did.
Speaker 5 (21:28):
I did putting on fast greense that that is what
I really looked at Wes.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
Otherwise I don't.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
Want to see them team no pupp But when you
look at my bets, it's gonna look like team no putt,
that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
But I did factor that in.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
You're right, they're gonna be fast fast greens. I think
you need to have some guys on there that it's.
Speaker 7 (21:45):
At least something your mind and then you can do
like the strokes gain total long courses or you know,
major I think that's a little misleading because you've got
some younger players here, like a Ludwig, so he's not
gonna have a lot of data for like strokes gain
major championships. So I went long core es I did too, obviously,
seventy six hundred is a big boy cort.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Yeah, I just went long courses and then again just
a tiny bit of sand save stuff because I think
at some point there will be someone in this tournament
that is going to have to make a shot from
the sand.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Yeah, make a shot from the sand.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
And again, maybe it was just something to kind of
push me over the edge when it all comes down
to it, Guys, we put in the stuff and models
told us what it likes.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Did those people make our card or not our place?
When we come back.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Biddliner.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Hey, guys, we give you specials all the time to
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(23:04):
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Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin, west Reynolds coming to you and listen.
We said, here's how we broke down the top of
hit the leader board and what jumped off the page
(23:25):
to us. Here's what this course looks like, and here's
the stats that matter. What did the model spit out
and what ended up making our betting card. West Reynolds,
Let's start with you, buddy, what ended up making it
into your accounting again. I want to leave the caveat
here recording this on a Tuesday morning, bets will be added.
I know people like to got that best get added
(23:45):
markets get added change, you know, like, yeah.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
So shops in Nevada haven't posted, yeah, you know, stuff
like that.
Speaker 7 (23:52):
So just like you could easily have somebody withdraw and
then it's like, okay, I'm gonna get refunded on that,
so I got to replace it.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
What you know, if you're a Visent Pro subscriber, like
we just mentioned, you go to the beson dot com
slash picks page and then you.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
See all the picks.
Speaker 6 (24:04):
It'll all be up there by one.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
You don't have to Twitter scream at us.
Speaker 7 (24:07):
Yes, yes, starting out my card. Look, you can make
arguments for all these favorites. By the way, I did
play Rory on a top ten, did not play him
to win here, But I'm kind of gonna play the
forgotten man. I don't know if I don't know if
that's fair to say forgotten man at the top of
the odds board or near the top of the odds board,
but I feel like he kind of is. And that's
(24:28):
John Rohm. I feel like he is a little bit
forgotten this week. He hasn't won yet on Live, but
he's never finished outside the top ten in any one
of those seven events. So you can say what you
want about that tour, and I have some of those guys.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
Are out there.
Speaker 7 (24:42):
Obviously they've got their money and they don't care. Rom
is still a competitor. This guy is still, you know,
in his late twenties and he's competing, and he cares
and he's trying no matter where he is. You know,
great ball striker, explosive short game, and especially for a
course like this, he's great on the proximity. I think
second from one seventy five to two hundred four from
(25:03):
two hundred plus on the PGA Tour last year for proximity.
So you look at his profile. He's won on very
similar courses. A two time major champion of course, the Masters,
in the US Open at Torrey Pines, He's won at
Mierfield Village, He's won an Olympia Fields, so has good
record on these long courses with some heavy rough and
also bent grass greens. So John Rahm at twenty to one,
(25:25):
he's now at eighteen. I still think that's playable in
the high teens as well. And then another live player
I did play Bryson Deshambeau at twenty eight to one,
who still leads the world in driving distance and can
still over power courses. He's also won on a Jack
Nicholas design won the Memorial at Mierfield Village back in
twenty eighteen. Nine of his ten career wins have come
(25:47):
on bent grass greens. He's won at Mirfield, He's won
at Wingfoot. You know, that's kind of a similar course.
A lot of these US Open and PGA Championship courses.
A lot of these PGA courses, by the way, some
more carryover to US Open courses.
Speaker 6 (26:00):
I think in recent years led.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
The field for the Masters and strokes gained off the
t top five last year at o'kill in the PGA.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
So he's got good recent form.
Speaker 7 (26:08):
Speaking of good recent form, maybe not so much in majors,
but I think that could turn around. Walking Neeman at
around forty to one drifted a little bit up. He's
been the best player on live this season with two victories,
six top tens, was a seventh in Singapore on this
Zoyge grass that of course the event brooks Kepta one
gained over eight strokes on approach, top fives at Mierfield Village,
top five at Olympia Fields, one at Riviera a couple
(26:30):
of years ago. So he's proven he can play well
on these long courses, difficult courses with bent grass greens.
Second to Deshambo in my model and driving distance and
first on approach over the last thirty six rounds. Patrick Cantley,
this was just playing on the drift. I found him
actually at Circa Sports here in Las Vegas at forty
six to one. The only thing he's not shown his
major championship pedigree. I think befitting of his ranking, but
(26:53):
maybe this could be it here. He's always been great
on Nicholas Designs, two time winner at Mierfield Village for
the Memorial. Six of the seven come on bent grass greens,
and then a couple of the long shots I played.
This was just on a number I played Tony fen
Out in ninety to one. And I know he's been
a mess with the putter. Oh he's been an absolute mess.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
You're gonna talk me into it West.
Speaker 7 (27:12):
But the Tita Green, he's tenth this season for total
driving in six on the last thirty six rounds. For approach,
it's like, why is this guy not winning well? Because
his round the green game has been a mess. But
he's a fit for a big boy golf course. Like
when I looked at that stroke, and on longer golf
courses he's only behind Rory, Rahm Scheffler and Xanderschoffle.
Speaker 6 (27:28):
It's a pree damn good company.
Speaker 7 (27:30):
Based on the odds board, I think that's for the
top five prices, so Tony Fee now I add that's
just a big number. And then the triple digit bombs,
I have two of them. Ox Shabatia one hundred and
twenty five to one won the Valero a couple months ago,
week before the Masters.
Speaker 6 (27:43):
Iron's been great.
Speaker 7 (27:44):
Second on approach in Houston, first at the Valero, second
at Harbor Town. He's also won on this course, won
the Junior PGA Championship in twenty eighteen. So maybe some
feel good here for ox Shay. And then Dean Burmester
one hundred and fifty to one, another previous winner this
year won the live event, beat Sergio Garcia in the
playoff at Drau and Miami. He is a big here.
You talk about driving distance, he's up there with those
(28:06):
guys with the Deshambo's and the Rory's, and you know,
all those guys motivated to perform here as all players
in a major championship are. But he didn't get invited
to the Masters. So look the world ranking points. You know,
to get in the US Open and to get in
an Open championship, you better have some really high finishes
and when you get a chance in a major championship.
So Burmester is one of those guys. And then I'll
(28:29):
have more placement markets as we get to Wednesday, Rory
top ten, Bryson can't lay Neman, who I beting out
right it's top twenty, and then Dean Burmester at a
top forty.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Yeah, and that's one of the things you'll notice about
again if you're new to long shots. Well, a lot
of guys sometimes we like in the outright market, but
we'll also kind of back it up with a if
they don't quite get there type, bet nobody out a
top ten, be that, a top twenty, something like that.
I do that with every single out right that I bet.
I'll have some sort of placement market bet on them
just to get if they played good but just not
good enough, you know, to get there with all that, Kelly,
(29:01):
and you might as well start with John Rohn because
I know he's on your card. Also ended up on
my card as well. So across the board here. You know,
it's kind of the same deal. If if Ron was
still on the PGA Tour, he's probably priced about where
Rory is, maybe a little bit longer. He's probably nine
to one as opposed to like plus seven or something,
(29:23):
but like certainly nowhere near twenty, which is what was
here yesterday in town and now now like as I
was mentioned, down to eighteen. But you know, he's gained
off the tee tee to green ball striking in twelve
straight tournaments, so that obviously predates his Live you know,
when he moved to Live and yeah, he had a
Masters that like wasn't very wasn't very good. But if
(29:44):
you look, he still gained off the tee. He gained approach,
he gained ball striking, he gained tee to green. He
was just atrocious short game, short game around the green
putting was all. I mean, he lost multiple multiple strokes
to the field on all of that. And so outside
of that, I mean, I still think that it's pretty
good if you're gaining in four of the major categories
across the board. So again just I think the price
(30:04):
is just a little bit too much, and you know,
we'll find out a lot about John ram I think
in this tournament, because if he goes out and doesn't
look like John Rahm anymore than whatever, he's not gonna
get my money.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
But like until I.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
See that that that that's not who he is, then
I'll take a twenty to one on him any day.
Speaker 5 (30:18):
Yeah, I mean, I think if we're just talking to
live guys overall, I mean, correct me if I'm wrong here, guys,
but it feels like recently bracingto Shamboos maybe sneakily been
like the.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Most consistent these past.
Speaker 5 (30:28):
Couple times we've seen them out there with the PGA
tour guys. So I you know, Brooks, Brooks and ram
I would say, I'm very interested to see what we
get out of them this week, because I think both
of them expressed frustration with what they did at the Masters,
thought they could do better.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And Boks is the guy that you have to have
the leap of faith that he's just gonna step up
in this Master because like, yeah, he won last time
out on the on that, but outside of that, none
of the stats, like look, sure he ain't gonna pop
in anybody's model, right, So it's kind of like.
Speaker 7 (30:56):
You're going on instincts and you're going on past experience
because this dude just finds a different level.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
And it's kind of like the.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Deal if you just is he gonna go out there
and just be Brooks at a major? Because again, if
you if you modeled, he didn't shown up anywhere.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
It was his one win last week.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
The reason he's priced shorter than genre.
Speaker 7 (31:15):
Has to be and part partially because he's the defending champion.
And it's like, man, is this is Brooks and Majors,
So you're already getting taxed on the Brooksy and Majors discount.
Speaker 6 (31:25):
Yeah, here, you're already getting taxes.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
Still some of your thunder there and I know you're
on on RAM, but like.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
But let's get girls, get let's get to another yell,
let's get to let's get to one or two others
and we'll hit.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
So how about that.
Speaker 5 (31:35):
I'm respecting the top of the board. I do think
between look, I like Rom, but you really I think
there's a big four here, right, Rom, Koepka, McElroy, Scheffler.
I am impressed with what Scheffler McRoy. Obviously with Scott
he's done, but McElroy, what he's done, I mean it
is one and a half wins in a row, two
wins maybe if you want to go there, uh for him,
and you got brooks Kepta with a win out, So
(31:57):
I went wrong. Mainly a number play, like you said, Matt,
only other guy. I bet it's still a number play
a little bit to me. It's your boy, Wyndom Clark.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I want him forty one.
Speaker 4 (32:06):
We gotta be long off the tee here.
Speaker 5 (32:07):
There are some areas of his game that might challenge
him a little bit on this course, But forty to
one compared to a lot of the other guys that
I saw above them, I think it's fairst guy's won
three times in the past year.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
I'll take it.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
If I'm looking for a guy who's going to go
out there and win a tournament in a major setting
like this, I need someone who I know it can
as one before in the past. Gimme Wyndam Clark, John Rahm.
That's in my entire outright card. I am heavy once
we go into finishing position work.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
Yeah, it's interesting on the windhom deal. Kind of an
interesting profile for him of late right, kind of a
decent amount of volatility with him, But at the end
of the day, the price now dictates that, and so you're,
you know, you're buying into a little bit of that volatility.
I have a guy in my card that I put in,
and I'm embracing the volatility, right and I think that
(32:53):
the odds reflect exactly just that. And sometimes with these
outright bets that that's kind of how we have to
go with all that. I'm gonna stick to an outright
bet on one of these dudes and not really go
into placement market stuff because it's either the best version
of them is going to be competing or the worst
version then probably misses the cut, you know. And so
that's how we have to deal with some of these
guys that we're going to be betting. When we come back,
we'll get into Kelly's placement market bets, we'll get into
(33:16):
my outright bets, and we'll talk about some of the
guys that didn't make our card and why did they
not make our card and should they make yours.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcast. Here's
Matt Brown, West Reynolds, Stan Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
It is long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the
Vson Podcast Network. Matt Brown, West Renolds, Kelly Bidlin coming
to you. And if you are a loyal listener and
if you are a new listener, you'll know now that
you can win this very Master's T shirt that I
got in Augusta, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (33:52):
This comes all the way.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
This is real authentic stuff that you can only get
in Augusta, Georgia. What you have to do though, we're
going to make you a subscriber to this podcast. You're
also gonna have to rate and review this podcast. And
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(34:14):
then you're gonna share it, and then with that someone's
gonna win this.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Hopefully you're a bigger fellow at the next self.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
That's a uh Master's T shirt. T shirt to pull up.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
No, it's it's it's a T shirt. It's a T shirt. Yeah,
so that's like a three hundred dollars T shirt.
Speaker 8 (34:26):
I mean, I mean, ain't she say it ain't like
I put the bag up there and the lady like
gave me the price, and I was like, uh, did
you wring everything up twice?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Like did you? Did you hit the thing too many times?
Speaker 4 (34:42):
Cocktail?
Speaker 6 (34:43):
They don't, they don't accept.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
Cue that's quite expensive.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
They're all right, all right, and then we just move
right on and then you hear like every single person
and all of their totals are the same, and you
realize why that thing makes three million dollars a day,
like just the uh, just the swag store there, and
it's pretty interesting.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
All right, Kelly, we just two outrights for you.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
But let's head to those placement markets, because again this
is where we really as golf betters. Either keep your
bank roll sustain it like just kind of even par,
or you can really try to grind these out and
try to make a lot of money on playing these.
I know, Kelly, you've kind of shifted your focus a
little bit more towards playing more of these top ten markets,
playing more of these head to heads and things like that,
and so really interesting to see what you got going
(35:23):
on here, because that's obviously how you're attacking this tournament.
Speaker 5 (35:26):
Yeah, it really is. I mean, look, I outrights have
not been my market this year. And then when you're
telling me it's a tournament, I'm walking into a Scotti
Scheffler Rory mcroyin books Kopka.
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Very easy for me to lay. It was land on
a couple guys.
Speaker 5 (35:37):
I thought I'm getting good numbers on and then I'm
focusing on finishing position markets here. So right away, first
bet I made top ten Xander Shoffley. I don't know
how many times I bet that already this year, six
or seven times, Wes. One of us is off on
our account. I've got eight of eleven starts this year.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
He's finished top ten.
Speaker 5 (35:54):
You could be right, we might be one off, but hey,
it's still a pretty good average for finishing in top ten.
I'll take the plus one fifty on him. Next guy,
I'll just keep going cruising down the graphic. This is
the guy I bet last week. He was a disaster.
But oh man, I keep running numbers, especially short term numbers,
and Tony fenw Wes, he keeps popping for me, and
(36:15):
then I go and dig in any even further and it's,
oh man, I don't know if I can bet this
guy with how absolutely atrocious.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
The putter is bet so I think when you got
a guy like this, it's I'm aiming high.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
I'm gonna aim high and go.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
You don't bet a top forty because if thet he
might like. It's like, if the putter's working, he's probably
gonna be competea.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
So I'm going big with a top ten.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
Bet on him five to one on that.
Speaker 4 (36:42):
And it's exactly what Matt said.
Speaker 5 (36:44):
That guy's by A guy might miss the cut or
he might be writing contention come Sunday. If that putter
is rolling top twenties, Benny on who I know you
guys have been on.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
Heavily this year, I bet way more than I have.
Speaker 6 (36:55):
I think that's a good top twenty bet.
Speaker 7 (36:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
I like him in the top twenty market.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
This this, I mean recent results, third of the Wells
Fargo T four at the Byron Nelson's a really coming
in some quality form these last couple of weeks, seven
top twenties in his thirteen thirteen starts. I think, just
like Wes's card, you're seeing one trade amongst a lot of.
Speaker 4 (37:14):
These guys long off the tee.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Right, he's twenty eighth off the t last twelve rounds first,
in driving distance thirteenth on approach, got everything you're looking
for there, Top twenty on him.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Adam Scott's a guy have kind of played lightly here
and there throughout the year.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
I just feel like he's always hanging around that ten
to twenty range in my models. Guys, I'm going back
to him here. I mean, he did finish T fifteen
here ten years ago. I don't know if that stuff
we should be going off of.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
But I'm gonna throw it out there.
Speaker 5 (37:41):
But last twelve rounds first and part five, scoring twenty
third and driving distance twenty six six and scrambling, got
a little bit of everything going on here. So I
like a top twenty bet on him again. I'm targeted
top twenties with some longer odds, guys. I think you
can play these in top forty markets as well, for sure.
So Adam Scott there, you know, ays know, I've bet
him a lot this year. Keith Mitchell, though he is,
(38:03):
was hovering around top five, top ten and almost every
model I ran. Obviously that's a lot because I'm emphasizing
a lot of off the t stuff, but off the
tee approach, like everything that he's done he's got seven
top twenties this season, ten and twelve starts, last twelve rounds,
fourth off the t fifteenth on approach ninth and Part
five scoring love Keith Mitchell this week five to one
(38:24):
on a top twenty plus one forty on a top
forty for him.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
And then get to Kurt Kitty Yama.
Speaker 5 (38:30):
This is a guy that, yeah, same thing was bounce
around kind of fifteen to twenty. He's been hovering around
that age range. You know he's good off the tee
decided to go just with a top forty bet here
at plus money.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
I thought was a good play on Kitty Yama.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
Who a guy.
Speaker 5 (38:42):
I played him there and then I played a matchup
over Denny McCarthy with him as well.
Speaker 4 (38:46):
Not I got him going heavy on. But I like
this week other matchups for me. Fenw over Jordan Speith.
Speaker 5 (38:52):
Jordan, I really like that one, even though we're talking
about the volatility and Fenw's game right now. Jordan Speeth,
I have no idea what to make of, so I
will take the top ten or the matchup.
Speaker 4 (39:01):
Bet on him. Patrick Kayley another guy Wes I know
you're on man, I got close. I bet him a
lot last year. Anybody that's been listening to this podcast
knows I like to bet, waste money and burn it on.
Speaker 5 (39:11):
Patrick Cantlay couldn't get through much more than a matchup,
but over Tyroll Hatton, I do like that.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
I think this is a.
Speaker 5 (39:16):
Good, great course for Cantla. Been playing a little bit
better recently, kiddie. I'm over to Demi McCarthy and Adam
Scott over Jason Day. Round out my matchups. That's everything
I got right now, be Adam some first round leaders.
Speaker 2 (39:27):
Tomorrow we can still Adam, we can still both win
on that. But I actually hadn't actually really popped in
my models. I actually have a top twenty bet end
on Yol Hatton this week. He is a dude that
if you kind of look at the stuff that I
plugged in, it was too much for me to ignore.
I mean, in multiple versions, Terroll Hatton was as high
(39:48):
as eleventh in the model, and that's you know, up
against a pretty stacked field here, So I couldn't ignore that.
I couldn't ignore where Saheatha Gala was continuing to show
up in the model. I don't think he has the
win equity to go and win a tournament with this
kind of depth. But I'll take a top twenty on him,
you know, a decent little payout on seat the Gala
on the top twenty, and then look, Xander top ten.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
It's it's just at this point.
Speaker 7 (40:12):
I probably have to add that again, that was one
of few winners last week.
Speaker 2 (40:15):
I mean, he's just one of the most He's just
one of the most consistent golfers out there. He just
doesn't have a ton of win equity. And I think
that's okay. And we talk about this a lot on
this podcast about win equity and listen, all these guys
might have zero win equity as long Ascotti, Schefler keeps
playing the way that he's playing.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
But you know, specifically, Xander is like he's just really
really really good.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
He just doesn't he's not awesome at anything, you know,
And with that, it's just he's an awesome top ten bet.
He's just going to be super, super consistent. So those
are the placement market bets for me. We already went
over rom I'm gonna go ahead and take the leap
here on Ludwig. He's great at the RBC, he was
awesome at the Masters. He ball struck his way to
a T fourteen at the Valero, even when he was
(40:54):
losing three plus strokes short game, three plus strokes putting,
still was able to be able to get a T
fourteen because he did everything else so incredibly well. Eighth
outright at the Players gained four strokes off the T
five point seven on approach twelve point three T to Green.
The kid is going to win. He's going to win
a major, He's going to win multiple majors.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
It's just win.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
And I like the fact that maybe there's a little
bit of this injury thing baked into this number. Maybe
it's because we did get the influx of the live
guys in here. But you know, I was not willing
to pull the trigger when we were talking about this
guys on the nine to one, ten to one, eleven,
twelve to one numbers we were seeing on him. But
now out of twenty two to one, I think it's
a little bit more fair and he can make the
(41:36):
card for me. Max Homa at thirty six to one.
Max on tough courses is basically just a mantra for me.
In golf betting. Quail Hollow T eight Augusta National T
three Bayhill T eight Tory Pines T thirteen. You look
at the Wells Fargo, he gained everywhere except off the
T and he only lost point one strokes off the
(41:58):
T on that so basically was neutral there and gained
everywhere else. Masters gained everywhere across the field. With all this,
something about Max's game really translates to these long, hard,
difficult courses. And that number attached to Max Homa too.
You just need him to be in contention come Sunday
and you can monetize that ticket for sure. At thirty
six to one, and this was a guy I talked
about that. I'm just gonna embrace the volatility here with
(42:20):
Justin Thomas out at fifty five to one. Look T
six at Pebble, T twelve at Waste Management, cut at
the Genesis, then T twelve at Bay Hill, cut again,
T sixty four cut, the next returns heads to the
PGA T five. It's just I'll take the volatility.
Speaker 7 (42:35):
I feel like he's been better this year than like
his form would suggests, of course, because he split with
the Bones Mackay and then brought in Matt Ministers, Patrick
Cantley's old bad guy before the Masters missed the cut
and then was very good at the RBC.
Speaker 6 (42:47):
Thomas was a potential ad. He was like the last
leave off for me.
Speaker 7 (42:50):
Of course, we know the hometown angle of Louisville Saint
Zavier High School graduate got honored in his hometown earlier
last week.
Speaker 6 (42:58):
So be a nice story.
Speaker 7 (43:01):
And look, two time PGA winner at Quail Hollow in
Southern Hills, very similar courses, I think to Valhallas, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
It's just for me.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
The number now has drifted so far on him that
now you can kind of embrace the volatility. Is he
just as likely to get cut as he is to
like being contentional on Sunday? I think with the way
that his game is right now, answers yes. But at
fifty five to one, that's okay. You don't do that
with a guy that's fifteen to one. You're like, no,
this guy better make the cut and better be in contention.
But at fifty five to one, I will take a
guy that's just as likely to be cut as he
(43:28):
is to be in contention come Sunday again, Like we said,
heading in here to the PGA T five at the
RBC T twenty one at the Wells Fargo where he
just couldn't get it figured out on the weekend, but
still was able to struggle there to a T twenty one,
So do like him with.
Speaker 3 (43:40):
All that, guys.
Speaker 2 (43:40):
Of course, any plays that get added you will find
at beson dot com slash picks. If you don't already
have a subscription, you can go ahead and get that
use of promo code Golf, and we'll give you fourteen
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(44:00):
you a T shirt here from the Masters for West,
for Kelly, I'm Matt.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
Good luck on all your PGA bets.
This is long Shots, Vison's premier golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Hello to a very special edition of long Shots here
on Vson. Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, Kelly Bidlin, coming to
you man. Scotty Scheffler back in the field. Maybe that
makes this tournament a little less appealing, but we're going
to break it down top to bottom anyway. Whenever we
get going here, I mean, let's we'll look back just
a tad to look forward. Here, guys, we did get
(00:33):
a Scotti Chef Scheffler less field last week in which
Rory McElroy goes out and gets the win. And you know,
I think some narratives that are going to be coming
out of that tournament might be that, you know, here
we are again, Xander Shopley can't get it done. And
you know, Kelly, I look at that more along the
lines of everybody on the face of the planet not
(00:53):
named Scotty was just gonna get beat on Sunday when
you have Rory playing at the peak of his abilities
and goes out and he goes an officially six hunder.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
He took the seven hunder to the eighteenth.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
He took the eighteenth toll off because you knew he
could have quatted it to still win the to win
the tournament. So you know he took the bogee, no
big deal, played super conservatively, but you know, going any
shoots basically seven hunder, I understand officially six hunder. With that,
There's just sometimes in golf, you can you're just gonna
get beat and like yours, you're gonna get beaten.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
Sometimes you're the.
Speaker 4 (01:22):
One who says it very often, Matt.
Speaker 5 (01:24):
There are every one of these golfers on tour is
very very good, and then when you talk about the
upper class of players like a Rory McElroy, sometimes they
just go nuclear.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
That's what happened.
Speaker 5 (01:35):
I think, like you said, I don't know that anybody
was really catching him there. I don't really care what
the name was. And look it's a it's at a
course that he's played pretty dang well at before, so
I ain't no surprise there. It's you know, I don't
know if I'm starting to feel bad for Xander or
just you know, it's it's just.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
Kind of what you are, man.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
But like you're still really really really good and I'm
still gonna keep betting on you, just not to win.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
The thing is he could have gone four under West.
He's loses, you know, I mean, like play a great round.
I know he didn't, but I mean he still could
have gone for under him, still would have lost. It's just,
you know, sometimes really good golfers are just going to
play better than other good.
Speaker 6 (02:09):
Golf Yeah, seven top tens this year now for Xander.
Speaker 7 (02:12):
And just you know, hasn't been able to finish, but
you know, still a top ten player in the world.
But you guys mentioned, of course Scotty little Bennett apparently
has arrived.
Speaker 6 (02:22):
We found that out.
Speaker 7 (02:23):
I guess they kept it secret for for about a
week and then Bob Harry get ESPN wrote that he
the baby has been delivered. We expect Scotty to be
on the grounds of Valhalla and he currently is at Louisville.
Speaker 6 (02:34):
By the way, I got my Louisville Cardinals color go
right back today. But so Scotty is there, as is Rory.
Speaker 7 (02:41):
But we have two different narratives now this week, you know,
because we always talk about like nappy factor in terms
of you know, when you have a child, when you
get married, a seminal moment in your life. So Scotty
has baby nappy factor and Rory apparently now based on
the news today, has divorced nappy factors. So some things
that's a good thing. Some think that's a bad thing. So,
(03:03):
by the way, Scotty and Rory, they both come in
off win Scotty at the RBC Heritage, Rory at the
Wells Fargo. Also Brooks Kepka who won it lives Singapore.
So three at the top four on the odds board,
including a defending champion.
Speaker 6 (03:15):
Kopka come off a win. So can't ask for better
for him than that?
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Yeah, no, absolutely, So we do head to Louisville, Kentucky
for the PGA Championship over at Valhalla. Guys, looking at
this odds board, Scotti Scheffler at the top of the
odds board, as we would expect, he's four to one
to win the tournament. He's plus one O five to
top five. It's just like you basically even money for
him to top five.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Matt, can you sell me a sixteen hundred dollars for
a top forty on.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
Him minus two hundred to top ten.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
I mean, it's just but that's the point that we've
gotten to here with Scotty Scheffer, Ory McElroy, as West
mentioned coming off of his win plus seven fifties, and
Or Shofley coming off second place finish fourteen to one,
John rom Now down to sixteen to one, Brooks Kepka
sixteen to one, Ludbig Over at DraftKings at twenty two
to one. Best price you're going to find in the
market over there on him, Bryson Shambeau twenty eight, Colin
(04:05):
Moore Kala at thirty, Homa thirty five, Woking Nieman thirty five,
Wyndham Clark all the way out to forty.
Speaker 3 (04:11):
Can't lay with the big drift out to forty.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Victor Hovelin also big drift out to forty five, as
is cam Smith.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Everybody else fifty to one or longer. West.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
When you kind of take a look at this, at
this odds board, even with us, even with the influx
of the live players, even with Ludwig being back in
the field, even with Rory coming off of a win,
we still find Scotty at four to one, and it's
very very hard to poke a hole in that number.
I mean, you know, it's like we would like to
think oh okay, here comes John Rahman, and here comes
Cam Smith, and here comes We're certainly we're gonna get
(04:40):
a longer number on Scottish Shelfer. Now the books ain't
giving us money for free.
Speaker 6 (04:43):
No they're not.
Speaker 7 (04:44):
And despite the fact that Rory has won his last
two events now one was a team event in New
Orleans with Shane Lowry. Now at the zer A Classic
in New Orleans and then Wells Fargo. Of course last
week fourth time he's won at Quail Hollow, So Rory
got a little bit of a shortening. You know, if
he was fourteen to one, I think everybody'd be playing him.
But you know, at plus seven point fifty, that's probably
(05:06):
the right price. Here he's still the clear number two
player in the world. And then he got Xander in
between there at fourteen to one. In between these three
guys that have the lead in wins Brooks no surprise that,
you know, It's like you feel like you should get
a little bit bigger on Brooks. But he's the big
game hunter and he is trying to go back to
back at the PGA Championship for the second time in
his career.
Speaker 6 (05:26):
So you know, he did it last year.
Speaker 7 (05:28):
Of course I won at oak Hill, but remember when
he won at bell Reeve a couple of years ago,
and then one that won the next year, So he's
trying to do it twice, So no surprises. I think
really at the odds board, Ludvig has maybe gone up
a little bit because of a potential injury concern because
apparently he was like Stripe showing it at least a
little bit in the practice rounds, but he was holding
his knee and that's what he cided when he withdrew
(05:51):
from the Wells Fargo last week.
Speaker 2 (05:53):
Kelly, when you looked at the odds board when all
the odds finally kind of came out and got a
little bit of action here, was there anything that jumped
off the page? G you, Was there any kind of
notable something? And you know, again, we'll get to all
of our bests a little bit later. But was there
anything that you just looked at and that right off
the bat right? Wow, that's interesting.
Speaker 3 (06:07):
I mean, I do.
Speaker 5 (06:08):
Think we've got to the point with Scotty Scheffler of Hey,
if you want to tell me that's the only bet
you're gonna make this tournament.
Speaker 4 (06:13):
I really can't push back on it, right, it is every.
Speaker 5 (06:16):
All the numbers we run, and we're gonna dive deep
into that as this as the show goes on, and
what we really look at stat wise for this course overall,
and now we view these guys, Look, he's number one,
he's number one, and everything we run, I can't argue
with anybody going in to put a bed in on him,
especially when he's racking up these wins like he is.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
However, I do think.
Speaker 5 (06:34):
It's at least slightly more wide open with I mean, look,
this is you guys know, I'm.
Speaker 4 (06:39):
Not the biggest roary guy.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
I can't deny back to back wins that he's coming
in with Brooks Koepka don't know fully know even what
to make him live tours still at this point.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
But okay, a win and win. I looked at putting numbers.
Speaker 4 (06:54):
Where he putted the heck out of the ball.
Speaker 3 (06:56):
Last week, so I can't argue that.
Speaker 5 (06:59):
And then there's John when we talk, you know, big
game hunters, who's always around.
Speaker 4 (07:03):
Okay, he's there.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
Too, So I do feel like it's maybe a little
bit more open than some of these events we've talked about,
just even in the recent past.
Speaker 3 (07:10):
So those all jumped out to me.
Speaker 5 (07:12):
I mean, I think the Ludwig pricing continues to be
interesting to me.
Speaker 3 (07:15):
I mean, the guy, the guy just went drew with
an injury.
Speaker 6 (07:18):
He's coming back right away.
Speaker 7 (07:19):
He gets the benefit of the doubt and a lot
in the market because he's obviously super talented and he's
runner up at the Masters. But this is a guy
that gets priced like he's about a two or three
time major winner.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Well, I think Matt said this before.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
I think there's just a lot of I think, especially
from some of the sharper golf guys out there, there's
a lot of guys that just refuse, refuse to let
him win and not have a ticket on him.
Speaker 3 (07:39):
Right.
Speaker 4 (07:39):
So that's why we keep seeing that price be driven down.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Maybe ad me to the list this week. We'll see
whenever that all goes down. So PJA Championship at val
Hollo that's in Louisville, Kentucky. Seventy six hundred and nine
yards par seventy one, our longest par seventy one on tour.
Got some bitgrass greens look like they're gonna be firm
and fast, pretty small in size. It looks like we
have some d rough and some bunkers out there west.
But you know they've made some changes to this course
(08:04):
since the last time that we did see it. So
I mean, I'm not saying course history means absolutely nothing here,
but it is going to be a different course than
you have seen in any of the prior iterations that
you may or may not be looking back on in
your research.
Speaker 7 (08:16):
Yeah, it's about one hundred yards longer than it played
in twenty fourteen. Fairways about thirty yards wide on average,
so not exactly wide, not totally narrow, so maybe wider
than some major championships, not quite us open narrow that
we see, but still on the narrower side. Get some
elevation here, so you get some shots with uneven lies,
seven water holes. There's a stream Floyd's Fork that meanders
(08:38):
throughout the course. You got to keep it in the
fairway though you do have four inch fescue bluegrass rough.
But the big change that you did to ease there
is really with the agronomy here, the fact that the
fairways used to be bent and grass.
Speaker 6 (08:52):
Now there's zoyser grass. Because the club Valhalla.
Speaker 7 (08:54):
Feels like it's easier to maintain in the summer So
those Zoysa fairways which you see at like East Lake
for the Tour Championship, in Atlanta, at South Wind and
Memphis for the FedEx Saint Jude Invitational.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
The Zoisia has a little.
Speaker 7 (09:06):
Bit more balance and it's going to be a little
firmer and faster, which is going to increase the distance.
But you may have some of these shots roll out
of the fairway and that's not what you want here,
especially if you get in that deeper cut greens. For
as big of a course as this is, these are
really small greens five thousand square feet, fifth smallest on tour,
thirteen to fourteen on the stimp. They're going to be
super fast, like they always are at a major championship.
Speaker 6 (09:28):
Front nine is a little bit easier.
Speaker 7 (09:29):
Back nine I think has kind of more the character
of this Jack Nicholas design.
Speaker 2 (09:33):
Yeah, one of the interesting things we'll see, I think
from a choice standpoint that these guys come to make
Kelly is there's sixty two bunkers out there, and from
the last time we saw this course, there used to
be a little bit of a protective rim from rough
around the bunkers pill Maas they removed all of that,
and so now anything just you know, there were still
some of these shots that were making into these bunkers
(09:55):
and these faraway bunkers, but now there's no protection whatsoever.
If you are off at all on your head and
toward to one of these bunkers, it's gonna suck it
right up. And so there might be some choices of
either different lines to be taken or maybe less than
driver too.
Speaker 5 (10:08):
Yeah, I mean, I think from a couple of the
notes I read up on, right, we've had a little
bit hotter than usual. You know, springtime out there firmed
out some of these fair ways, right, so you need
even more of that runout. As you were talking about Wes,
you know what, we're looking at four inches worth of
rough but I've heard a couple of things. Oh but
it might even be a little longer than that, just
(10:28):
because of those that hot spring really let some of
that grass grow out.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
So gonna be interesting to watch that.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
I mean, we're gonna dive into everything that we looked
at modeling wise, stat wise, but.
Speaker 4 (10:39):
You gotta be long and you gotta be accurate off
the tee.
Speaker 3 (10:42):
Both of those are going to go a long way.
Speaker 7 (10:43):
Typical Nicholas you know, it's always quote unquote second shot
golf course really at every Nicholas design that you see
played out on the tour, and this is no exception.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
Keith Reese is the GM of Valhalla and has been
since twenty thirteen, and basically they were asking him about
some of the changes that been made to the course
out there, and he said, hey, if you hit good shots,
you can get rewarded out here. He's like, there are
some chances to score, but if you hit bad shots,
it can punish you in a hurry on each and
every hole. So he said, basically, there will be trouble
(11:13):
on each and every hole if you are too wayward
in all of this. And so that's some of the
stuff that we'll have to monitor. Really, we're full disclosure.
We are recording this on a Tuesday morning, so some
of this stuff is going to change up up to
tee off, and we will certainly try to keep you
informed of all of that over on the Twitter machine
as well. With all this, when we come back, we're
going to talk about the stats that matter. What did
(11:33):
our models look at here on long Shots?
Speaker 1 (11:40):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, West Reynolds and Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It is long Shots Golf Enting podcast here on the
Vson podcast Network special edition for the PGA Championship. Matt Brown,
West Reynolds, Kelly Beblin come and to you and just
looked at the odds boards, talked a little bit about
what the course looks like to make up the changes
that they put in over the course of the last instance.
Speaker 3 (12:08):
We saw this right.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
This was used to be a public course, then got
bought and then out it's private course. So you and
I can't go play it. We're not famous enough to
go play it. But you know, maybe there are some
people out there that know someone that have played it here.
Speaker 5 (12:20):
You know what, Matt, at some point in my life,
I'd like to just view a large piece of land
and be like, this would be a great part three
to go right over here in this little quails nest.
Speaker 3 (12:29):
But I don't know.
Speaker 7 (12:30):
All these guys give me five hundred acres of property
and I can maybe think of something I always talk about.
Speaker 2 (12:36):
I always think of this whenever I'm like playing a
golf course and I'm kind of looking around and going like,
how did this guy think exactly, Yeah, this was this
was flat dirt that looked like nothing, and how did
he decide that this was going It.
Speaker 7 (12:46):
Was like like Will Hollow last week was on a
dairy farm originally. So I always liked these little stories
about the history and how these clubs get.
Speaker 3 (12:55):
The way it all goes down is wild and crazy.
Speaker 2 (12:57):
So guys, if you're just if you're new to shots,
you might be seeing us here on visa for the
first time. We will talk about modeling and and we
do run models, but with that, it's not models that
we did ourselves. So I just want to clear the air.
Neither none of the three of us are coders. We're
using someone else's uh we should call it like a
you know, the bones, and then we're kind of putting
(13:18):
in the meat of that and then it spits out
what it is. So we're we're putting the stats in,
we're putting we're waiting those stats as to how important
we think they are for any given week. But how
the algorithm forms, what things get spit out that has.
Speaker 3 (13:30):
Nothing to do with us. So I just want to
clear that up.
Speaker 2 (13:31):
Whenever we say are modeling and people are write about,
hey man, how do you start to how do you model,
I'm like, I have no idea, I don't have any clue,
no clue.
Speaker 5 (13:38):
And we use multiple sites I think are always worth
shouting out. I mean Fantasy National, betspursricrundgod dot Com just
a few of the ones that that we use.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I'm using bet the number a little bit now for me.
So yeah, so there's there's several of the.
Speaker 7 (13:53):
And the Rick run Good. I'll give special mention for
this week because that's where you're going to find a
lot of live data. You know, at least you know
it's not exact case live, doesn't you know, provide like
I think, really advanced stats to give like GIR and
driving distance and your basic boiler plate stuff. But uh yeah,
with all the live players that we do have in
the field this week, be careful because some of it
(14:15):
may not have the updated data at least for this seat.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Yeah, that is that is definitely worth pointing out. Some
of these some of the all modeling sides are not
created equals basically what we're saying, because you could come
out and why is I'm not getting a single one
of these dudes that I think I should be getting
and it's probably because the data isn't in there.
Speaker 7 (14:29):
Because usually, like on Fantasy National, I will use that
most weeks just for PGA Tour stuff because I know
that that's updated, so.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
I don't have to worry about Okay, I.
Speaker 7 (14:38):
Got to account for Keptcat or I gotta account for
Rom or Deshamba or any of these guys.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
So each and every week go in, we decide what
we want to plug into those models and just how
much we want to wait that, and then we get
the results, and that kind of starts to narrow our
playing player pool and how we end up making some
bets here. So, h Kelly, I'll start with you this week.
We've talked a ton about distance already, so get it.
We're gonna be talking a lot about distance. So outside
of distance, what were you looking at as far as
(15:05):
you're kind of building blocks here?
Speaker 7 (15:06):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (15:07):
I mean again, I think you know distance, and I
think accuracy is important this week, right too. I as
you broke down west, we're talking narrow fairways, not the narrowest,
but narrow fairways.
Speaker 4 (15:17):
And it's still gonna be a lot better hitting off.
Speaker 5 (15:19):
The fairway than in four inch fiveitch whatever you're going
to be dealing with with that ugly.
Speaker 4 (15:25):
Rough So yeah, that's important. Stuff definitely looked at off
the tee, you know, pretty pretty dang important this week overall.
Speaker 2 (15:31):
So so so wes like I kind of want to
jump in on here because I how heavily did you
go into it? Guys, Because like so I did. I
did off the tee, I did, I did driving distance.
I also I also did.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
Total drive driving.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Yeah, and like so I mean I I kind of
hit it from all different angles. Need to here with this,
like more than I normally ever would well dido for
me too.
Speaker 7 (15:52):
I think off the tea is going to be the
most important thing this week.
Speaker 6 (15:56):
Total driving.
Speaker 7 (15:57):
Of course, that means driving distance plus driving accuracy, Like
if you're looking at like the basic pgatour dot com,
that's what that means, the distance rank plus the accuracy rank,
and then other sides taken into account total driving. I
did strokes gained off the T as well. Rory, by
the way, when he won here in twenty fourteen was
first for strokes.
Speaker 6 (16:14):
Gained off the T.
Speaker 7 (16:14):
So you better be able to get it out there
a little bit and then you know, keep it in play.
And then I did use distance because I think that
this is a place I don't want to say bomb
and gouge, but this is a place where if you're long,
that's going to at least ameliorate some of the mistakes
that could potentially be made off.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
If there's a mistake that will be made for me
this week in the modeling, it will be over emphasizing
driving distance, and it might come to it might have
to be something that I have to pivot in the
middle of the tournament and make some in tournament bets
because if this does do what some people are saying
it could do, which is if this does dry out
a little bit, and if this does run out much
(16:53):
much further and stuff, it's going to take away some
of that advantage that these longer hitters have because it
they'll still be longer. But if a who's typically two
eighty five off the tee is now three hundred or
three oh five off the tee, that's an extra club
that he's gaining on the way in, And so I
might have to pivot there a little bit, because that
was one of the things that crossed my mind. I'm like, man,
I know I want to emphasize distance, but if this
(17:14):
is going to be much faster, like they're saying, that's
going to take some of that out of there.
Speaker 5 (17:18):
So the other part of that, I think that's interesting
too is it is the greens, right, because that the greens.
You're not talking huge greens, and if they firm out
a little bit, that's where it goes back to. You
want the guys that are longer so they can hit
thet higher loft wedges.
Speaker 4 (17:33):
And irons into those greens that they land a little softer.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
Weather Man, Kelly, real quick, it does look like right
as of right now, Friday is going to be your
day where you're going to get the most rain. Thursday
looking pretty clean for those first round leader bets. But
somebody keep in mind as you're there.
Speaker 7 (17:48):
Was a lot of rain today by the way, as
we record on Tuesday afternoon, so pretty much practice washed out.
Speaker 3 (17:53):
Yeah, Wes.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
One of the things you mentioned about the Zoisa fairways,
which is a little bit interesting, just we have those
at a few courses out here in Vegas that I've
been able to go out on, and while I'm nowhere
near in the even same breath of any of these guys,
what I will say is this is the the ball
on that grass, so the grass a little bit, firmer
a little bit, it's almost like.
Speaker 3 (18:15):
It's sitting on it, almost on a tea.
Speaker 2 (18:17):
Like I love playing off of those because it is
just like the way that the ball. So for these guys,
I think what we're gonna see too, is the extra
bonus of being in the fairway because they're gonna get
very very clean strokes off of this fairway and like
what they're gonna be able to do, I'm guessing with
these irons and the spin they're gonna be able to
(18:39):
get and all stuff like that. Like, I think we're
gonna see some special shots over the course of this tournament,
so long as guys are playing out the fair well.
Speaker 7 (18:45):
And one of the reasons I did still use a
proach here, which we're gonna use at least to some
extent almost every week, is because you do have potentially
for being in thicker rough and then you have elevated greens.
So that's gonna make it a little more unpredictable because
you're gonna have to really put the ball on the fairways.
And Nicholas always reiterate myself always likes the second shot
(19:05):
golf course. So when you're looking at these iron shots
to one seventy five to two hundred two hundred plus,
So that's what you're gonna want to look at. So
approach is still going to matter, but off the t
is obviously going to set everything up.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
So from a scoring standpoint, Kelly, did we did you
get to Bartie or better?
Speaker 3 (19:23):
Did you get to bo Gave? What did you get to?
You know what?
Speaker 2 (19:26):
Are maybe part five scoring? Was there anything from a
scoring standpoint look at this way?
Speaker 3 (19:29):
Absolutely?
Speaker 5 (19:30):
So I'm gonna say, like it's this is a major right,
Almost everything matters here.
Speaker 4 (19:34):
Every part of the game matters to some degree.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
Right Where did I really emphasize though off the t
the stuff we just talked about, right, approach is always
going to matter. When you just brought that up those
proximity buckets, what you know, one seventy five to two
hundred two hundred plus, Yes, I looked at that heavily.
Speaker 3 (19:49):
I've factored in.
Speaker 5 (19:50):
Par five scoring almost as much here as I've ever done.
Speaker 4 (19:53):
Where you just look at who scores?
Speaker 3 (19:55):
Where do you score on this course?
Speaker 5 (19:57):
It comes on the par five So absolutely part five
I factored it heavily this week.
Speaker 4 (20:02):
And then yeah, and then some bogie avoidance, and then.
Speaker 5 (20:04):
The rest right, scrambling around the green play all that
just smaller because all that stuff's going to come into play.
Speaker 4 (20:10):
But those are the areas I focused on.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
The most mat Yeah, and then west. Is there anything
did you do scrambling around the green? Any of those
stuff like the sand saves? Did that make it into
the model?
Speaker 6 (20:20):
I did scrambling.
Speaker 7 (20:21):
I think that's going to be important this week because
there are some tricky chips. There is some rough around
the green here, so it's pretty lush, so you're gonna
have to be creative and you're gonna have to chip well,
I think around these greens because these greens are very small,
so you're going to miss some of them. So I
did scrambling game, I did bogie avoidance. I know you
guys are usually team no pot. I did do a
little bit of putting this week, just for context. It's
(20:43):
not going to ever be huge in terms of a percentage,
but strokes gain putting on fast greens because these are
going to be thirteen fourteen on the stimp on the weekend.
And then bent grass because you are getting pure bent grass,
you're not getting that bent poa mix that we see
so frequently on the PGA tour. So I did do
a little putting.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
I put in one percent of grass putting strictly to
have it in there to be able to look at
because what I what you do hear from these guys
and some guys the bent grass doesn't trick them and
it and they can just read it a lot better
than other guys. And there are other guys with the
way that that grass looks down there whenever they cut
it up, that it just sometimes just doesn't work well.
Speaker 3 (21:20):
Rather so obviously some guys.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Are just put so much better on bermuda than they
do on bent because bermuta just doesn't have that kind
of tricky grain to it.
Speaker 3 (21:26):
And so I didn't at least put that in there
as a tiebreaker.
Speaker 6 (21:28):
I did.
Speaker 5 (21:28):
I did putting on fast greense that that is what
I really looked at Wes.
Speaker 4 (21:33):
Otherwise I don't.
Speaker 5 (21:34):
Want to see them team no pupp But when you
look at my bets, it's gonna look like team no putt,
that's for sure.
Speaker 3 (21:38):
But I did factor that in.
Speaker 5 (21:40):
You're right, they're gonna be fast fast greens. I think
you need to have some guys on there that it's.
Speaker 7 (21:45):
At least something your mind and then you can do
like the strokes gain total long courses or you know,
major I think that's a little misleading because you've got
some younger players here, like a Ludwig, so he's not
gonna have a lot of data for like strokes gain
major championships. So I went long core es I did too, obviously,
seventy six hundred is a big boy cort.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
Yeah, I just went long courses and then again just
a tiny bit of sand save stuff because I think
at some point there will be someone in this tournament
that is going to have to make a shot from
the sand.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
Yeah, make a shot from the sand.
Speaker 2 (22:17):
And again, maybe it was just something to kind of
push me over the edge when it all comes down
to it, Guys, we put in the stuff and models
told us what it likes.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Did those people make our card or not our place?
When we come back.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcasts. Here's
Matt Brown, Wes Reynolds, and Kelly Biddliner.
Speaker 2 (22:44):
Hey, guys, we give you specials all the time to
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(23:04):
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Matt Brown, Kelly Bidlin, west Reynolds coming to you and listen.
We said, here's how we broke down the top of
hit the leader board and what jumped off the page
(23:25):
to us. Here's what this course looks like, and here's
the stats that matter. What did the model spit out
and what ended up making our betting card. West Reynolds,
Let's start with you, buddy, what ended up making it
into your accounting again. I want to leave the caveat
here recording this on a Tuesday morning, bets will be added.
I know people like to got that best get added
(23:45):
markets get added change, you know, like, yeah.
Speaker 5 (23:48):
So shops in Nevada haven't posted, yeah, you know, stuff
like that.
Speaker 7 (23:52):
So just like you could easily have somebody withdraw and
then it's like, okay, I'm gonna get refunded on that,
so I got to replace it.
Speaker 2 (23:58):
What you know, if you're a Visent Pro subscriber, like
we just mentioned, you go to the beson dot com
slash picks page and then you.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
See all the picks.
Speaker 6 (24:04):
It'll all be up there by one.
Speaker 3 (24:06):
You don't have to Twitter scream at us.
Speaker 7 (24:07):
Yes, yes, starting out my card. Look, you can make
arguments for all these favorites. By the way, I did
play Rory on a top ten, did not play him
to win here, But I'm kind of gonna play the
forgotten man. I don't know if I don't know if
that's fair to say forgotten man at the top of
the odds board or near the top of the odds board,
but I feel like he kind of is. And that's
(24:28):
John Rohm. I feel like he is a little bit
forgotten this week. He hasn't won yet on Live, but
he's never finished outside the top ten in any one
of those seven events. So you can say what you
want about that tour, and I have some of those guys.
Speaker 6 (24:41):
Are out there.
Speaker 7 (24:42):
Obviously they've got their money and they don't care. Rom
is still a competitor. This guy is still, you know,
in his late twenties and he's competing, and he cares
and he's trying no matter where he is. You know,
great ball striker, explosive short game, and especially for a
course like this, he's great on the proximity. I think
second from one seventy five to two hundred four from
(25:03):
two hundred plus on the PGA Tour last year for proximity.
So you look at his profile. He's won on very
similar courses. A two time major champion of course, the Masters,
in the US Open at Torrey Pines, He's won at
Mierfield Village, He's won an Olympia Fields, so has good
record on these long courses with some heavy rough and
also bent grass greens. So John Rahm at twenty to one,
(25:25):
he's now at eighteen. I still think that's playable in
the high teens as well. And then another live player
I did play Bryson Deshambeau at twenty eight to one,
who still leads the world in driving distance and can
still over power courses. He's also won on a Jack
Nicholas design won the Memorial at Mierfield Village back in
twenty eighteen. Nine of his ten career wins have come
(25:47):
on bent grass greens. He's won at Mirfield, He's won
at Wingfoot. You know, that's kind of a similar course.
A lot of these US Open and PGA Championship courses.
A lot of these PGA courses, by the way, some
more carryover to US Open courses.
Speaker 6 (26:00):
I think in recent years led.
Speaker 7 (26:02):
The field for the Masters and strokes gained off the
t top five last year at o'kill in the PGA.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
So he's got good recent form.
Speaker 7 (26:08):
Speaking of good recent form, maybe not so much in majors,
but I think that could turn around. Walking Neeman at
around forty to one drifted a little bit up. He's
been the best player on live this season with two victories,
six top tens, was a seventh in Singapore on this
Zoyge grass that of course the event brooks Kepta one
gained over eight strokes on approach, top fives at Mierfield Village,
top five at Olympia Fields, one at Riviera a couple
(26:30):
of years ago. So he's proven he can play well
on these long courses, difficult courses with bent grass greens.
Second to Deshambo in my model and driving distance and
first on approach over the last thirty six rounds. Patrick Cantley,
this was just playing on the drift. I found him
actually at Circa Sports here in Las Vegas at forty
six to one. The only thing he's not shown his
major championship pedigree. I think befitting of his ranking, but
(26:53):
maybe this could be it here. He's always been great
on Nicholas Designs, two time winner at Mierfield Village for
the Memorial. Six of the seven come on bent grass greens,
and then a couple of the long shots I played.
This was just on a number I played Tony fen
Out in ninety to one. And I know he's been
a mess with the putter. Oh he's been an absolute mess.
Speaker 4 (27:10):
You're gonna talk me into it West.
Speaker 7 (27:12):
But the Tita Green, he's tenth this season for total
driving in six on the last thirty six rounds. For approach,
it's like, why is this guy not winning well? Because
his round the green game has been a mess. But
he's a fit for a big boy golf course. Like
when I looked at that stroke, and on longer golf
courses he's only behind Rory, Rahm Scheffler and Xanderschoffle.
Speaker 6 (27:28):
It's a pree damn good company.
Speaker 7 (27:30):
Based on the odds board, I think that's for the
top five prices, so Tony Fee now I add that's
just a big number. And then the triple digit bombs,
I have two of them. Ox Shabatia one hundred and
twenty five to one won the Valero a couple months ago,
week before the Masters.
Speaker 6 (27:43):
Iron's been great.
Speaker 7 (27:44):
Second on approach in Houston, first at the Valero, second
at Harbor Town. He's also won on this course, won
the Junior PGA Championship in twenty eighteen. So maybe some
feel good here for ox Shay. And then Dean Burmester
one hundred and fifty to one, another previous winner this
year won the live event, beat Sergio Garcia in the
playoff at Drau and Miami. He is a big here.
You talk about driving distance, he's up there with those
(28:06):
guys with the Deshambo's and the Rory's, and you know,
all those guys motivated to perform here as all players
in a major championship are. But he didn't get invited
to the Masters. So look the world ranking points. You know,
to get in the US Open and to get in
an Open championship, you better have some really high finishes
and when you get a chance in a major championship.
So Burmester is one of those guys. And then I'll
(28:29):
have more placement markets as we get to Wednesday, Rory
top ten, Bryson can't lay Neman, who I beting out
right it's top twenty, and then Dean Burmester at a
top forty.
Speaker 2 (28:38):
Yeah, and that's one of the things you'll notice about
again if you're new to long shots. Well, a lot
of guys sometimes we like in the outright market, but
we'll also kind of back it up with a if
they don't quite get there type, bet nobody out a
top ten, be that, a top twenty, something like that.
I do that with every single out right that I bet.
I'll have some sort of placement market bet on them
just to get if they played good but just not
good enough, you know, to get there with all that, Kelly,
(29:01):
and you might as well start with John Rohn because
I know he's on your card. Also ended up on
my card as well. So across the board here. You know,
it's kind of the same deal. If if Ron was
still on the PGA Tour, he's probably priced about where
Rory is, maybe a little bit longer. He's probably nine
to one as opposed to like plus seven or something,
(29:23):
but like certainly nowhere near twenty, which is what was
here yesterday in town and now now like as I
was mentioned, down to eighteen. But you know, he's gained
off the tee tee to green ball striking in twelve
straight tournaments, so that obviously predates his Live you know,
when he moved to Live and yeah, he had a
Masters that like wasn't very wasn't very good. But if
(29:44):
you look, he still gained off the tee. He gained approach,
he gained ball striking, he gained tee to green. He
was just atrocious short game, short game around the green
putting was all. I mean, he lost multiple multiple strokes
to the field on all of that. And so outside
of that, I mean, I still think that it's pretty
good if you're gaining in four of the major categories
across the board. So again just I think the price
(30:04):
is just a little bit too much, and you know,
we'll find out a lot about John ram I think
in this tournament, because if he goes out and doesn't
look like John Rahm anymore than whatever, he's not gonna
get my money.
Speaker 3 (30:12):
But like until I.
Speaker 2 (30:12):
See that that that that's not who he is, then
I'll take a twenty to one on him any day.
Speaker 5 (30:18):
Yeah, I mean, I think if we're just talking to
live guys overall, I mean, correct me if I'm wrong here, guys,
but it feels like recently bracingto Shamboos maybe sneakily been
like the.
Speaker 4 (30:26):
Most consistent these past.
Speaker 5 (30:28):
Couple times we've seen them out there with the PGA
tour guys. So I you know, Brooks, Brooks and ram
I would say, I'm very interested to see what we
get out of them this week, because I think both
of them expressed frustration with what they did at the Masters,
thought they could do better.
Speaker 2 (30:43):
And Boks is the guy that you have to have
the leap of faith that he's just gonna step up
in this Master because like, yeah, he won last time
out on the on that, but outside of that, none
of the stats, like look, sure he ain't gonna pop
in anybody's model, right, So it's kind of like.
Speaker 7 (30:56):
You're going on instincts and you're going on past experience
because this dude just finds a different level.
Speaker 3 (31:01):
And it's kind of like the.
Speaker 2 (31:02):
Deal if you just is he gonna go out there
and just be Brooks at a major? Because again, if
you if you modeled, he didn't shown up anywhere.
Speaker 3 (31:09):
It was his one win last week.
Speaker 4 (31:12):
The reason he's priced shorter than genre.
Speaker 7 (31:15):
Has to be and part partially because he's the defending champion.
And it's like, man, is this is Brooks and Majors,
So you're already getting taxed on the Brooksy and Majors discount.
Speaker 6 (31:25):
Yeah, here, you're already getting taxes.
Speaker 3 (31:27):
Still some of your thunder there and I know you're
on on RAM, but like.
Speaker 2 (31:30):
But let's get girls, get let's get to another yell,
let's get to let's get to one or two others
and we'll hit.
Speaker 3 (31:35):
So how about that.
Speaker 5 (31:35):
I'm respecting the top of the board. I do think
between look, I like Rom, but you really I think
there's a big four here, right, Rom, Koepka, McElroy, Scheffler.
I am impressed with what Scheffler McRoy. Obviously with Scott
he's done, but McElroy, what he's done, I mean it
is one and a half wins in a row, two
wins maybe if you want to go there, uh for him,
and you got brooks Kepta with a win out, So
(31:57):
I went wrong. Mainly a number play, like you said, Matt,
only other guy. I bet it's still a number play
a little bit to me. It's your boy, Wyndom Clark.
Speaker 3 (32:05):
I want him forty one.
Speaker 4 (32:06):
We gotta be long off the tee here.
Speaker 5 (32:07):
There are some areas of his game that might challenge
him a little bit on this course, But forty to
one compared to a lot of the other guys that
I saw above them, I think it's fairst guy's won
three times in the past year.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
I'll take it.
Speaker 5 (32:18):
If I'm looking for a guy who's going to go
out there and win a tournament in a major setting
like this, I need someone who I know it can
as one before in the past. Gimme Wyndam Clark, John Rahm.
That's in my entire outright card. I am heavy once
we go into finishing position work.
Speaker 2 (32:32):
Yeah, it's interesting on the windhom deal. Kind of an
interesting profile for him of late right, kind of a
decent amount of volatility with him, But at the end
of the day, the price now dictates that, and so you're,
you know, you're buying into a little bit of that volatility.
I have a guy in my card that I put in,
and I'm embracing the volatility, right and I think that
(32:53):
the odds reflect exactly just that. And sometimes with these
outright bets that that's kind of how we have to
go with all that. I'm gonna stick to an outright
bet on one of these dudes and not really go
into placement market stuff because it's either the best version
of them is going to be competing or the worst
version then probably misses the cut, you know. And so
that's how we have to deal with some of these
guys that we're going to be betting. When we come back,
we'll get into Kelly's placement market bets, we'll get into
(33:16):
my outright bets, and we'll talk about some of the
guys that didn't make our card and why did they
not make our card and should they make yours.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
This is long Shots, Vison's premiered golf betting podcast. Here's
Matt Brown, West Reynolds, Stan Kelly Bidlin.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
It is long Shots Golf Betting podcast here on the
Vson Podcast Network. Matt Brown, West Renolds, Kelly Bidlin coming
to you. And if you are a loyal listener and
if you are a new listener, you'll know now that
you can win this very Master's T shirt that I
got in Augusta, Georgia.
Speaker 3 (33:52):
This comes all the way.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
This is real authentic stuff that you can only get
in Augusta, Georgia. What you have to do though, we're
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(34:14):
then you're gonna share it, and then with that someone's
gonna win this.
Speaker 3 (34:17):
Hopefully you're a bigger fellow at the next self.
Speaker 4 (34:18):
That's a uh Master's T shirt. T shirt to pull up.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
No, it's it's it's a T shirt. It's a T shirt. Yeah,
so that's like a three hundred dollars T shirt.
Speaker 8 (34:26):
I mean, I mean, ain't she say it ain't like
I put the bag up there and the lady like
gave me the price, and I was like, uh, did
you wring everything up twice?
Speaker 3 (34:39):
Like did you? Did you hit the thing too many times?
Speaker 4 (34:42):
Cocktail?
Speaker 6 (34:43):
They don't, they don't accept.
Speaker 3 (34:45):
Cue that's quite expensive.
Speaker 2 (34:46):
They're all right, all right, and then we just move
right on and then you hear like every single person
and all of their totals are the same, and you
realize why that thing makes three million dollars a day,
like just the uh, just the swag store there, and
it's pretty interesting.
Speaker 3 (34:59):
All right, Kelly, we just two outrights for you.
Speaker 2 (35:02):
But let's head to those placement markets, because again this
is where we really as golf betters. Either keep your
bank roll sustain it like just kind of even par,
or you can really try to grind these out and
try to make a lot of money on playing these.
I know, Kelly, you've kind of shifted your focus a
little bit more towards playing more of these top ten markets,
playing more of these head to heads and things like that,
and so really interesting to see what you got going
(35:23):
on here, because that's obviously how you're attacking this tournament.
Speaker 5 (35:26):
Yeah, it really is. I mean, look, I outrights have
not been my market this year. And then when you're
telling me it's a tournament, I'm walking into a Scotti
Scheffler Rory mcroyin books Kopka.
Speaker 4 (35:35):
Very easy for me to lay. It was land on
a couple guys.
Speaker 5 (35:37):
I thought I'm getting good numbers on and then I'm
focusing on finishing position markets here. So right away, first
bet I made top ten Xander Shoffley. I don't know
how many times I bet that already this year, six
or seven times, Wes. One of us is off on
our account. I've got eight of eleven starts this year.
Speaker 3 (35:53):
He's finished top ten.
Speaker 5 (35:54):
You could be right, we might be one off, but hey,
it's still a pretty good average for finishing in top ten.
I'll take the plus one fifty on him. Next guy,
I'll just keep going cruising down the graphic. This is
the guy I bet last week. He was a disaster.
But oh man, I keep running numbers, especially short term numbers,
and Tony fenw Wes, he keeps popping for me, and
(36:15):
then I go and dig in any even further and it's,
oh man, I don't know if I can bet this
guy with how absolutely atrocious.
Speaker 4 (36:22):
The putter is bet so I think when you got
a guy like this, it's I'm aiming high.
Speaker 3 (36:28):
I'm gonna aim high and go.
Speaker 2 (36:29):
You don't bet a top forty because if thet he
might like. It's like, if the putter's working, he's probably
gonna be competea.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
So I'm going big with a top ten.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
Bet on him five to one on that.
Speaker 4 (36:42):
And it's exactly what Matt said.
Speaker 5 (36:44):
That guy's by A guy might miss the cut or
he might be writing contention come Sunday. If that putter
is rolling top twenties, Benny on who I know you
guys have been on.
Speaker 4 (36:52):
Heavily this year, I bet way more than I have.
Speaker 6 (36:55):
I think that's a good top twenty bet.
Speaker 7 (36:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:57):
I like him in the top twenty market.
Speaker 5 (36:59):
This this, I mean recent results, third of the Wells
Fargo T four at the Byron Nelson's a really coming
in some quality form these last couple of weeks, seven
top twenties in his thirteen thirteen starts. I think, just
like Wes's card, you're seeing one trade amongst a lot of.
Speaker 4 (37:14):
These guys long off the tee.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Right, he's twenty eighth off the t last twelve rounds first,
in driving distance thirteenth on approach, got everything you're looking
for there, Top twenty on him.
Speaker 4 (37:25):
Adam Scott's a guy have kind of played lightly here
and there throughout the year.
Speaker 5 (37:28):
I just feel like he's always hanging around that ten
to twenty range in my models. Guys, I'm going back
to him here. I mean, he did finish T fifteen
here ten years ago. I don't know if that stuff
we should be going off of.
Speaker 4 (37:39):
But I'm gonna throw it out there.
Speaker 5 (37:41):
But last twelve rounds first and part five, scoring twenty
third and driving distance twenty six six and scrambling, got
a little bit of everything going on here. So I
like a top twenty bet on him again. I'm targeted
top twenties with some longer odds, guys. I think you
can play these in top forty markets as well, for sure.
So Adam Scott there, you know, ays know, I've bet
him a lot this year. Keith Mitchell, though he is,
(38:03):
was hovering around top five, top ten and almost every
model I ran. Obviously that's a lot because I'm emphasizing
a lot of off the t stuff, but off the
tee approach, like everything that he's done he's got seven
top twenties this season, ten and twelve starts, last twelve rounds,
fourth off the t fifteenth on approach ninth and Part
five scoring love Keith Mitchell this week five to one
(38:24):
on a top twenty plus one forty on a top
forty for him.
Speaker 4 (38:28):
And then get to Kurt Kitty Yama.
Speaker 5 (38:30):
This is a guy that, yeah, same thing was bounce
around kind of fifteen to twenty. He's been hovering around
that age range. You know he's good off the tee
decided to go just with a top forty bet here
at plus money.
Speaker 4 (38:39):
I thought was a good play on Kitty Yama.
Speaker 3 (38:42):
Who a guy.
Speaker 5 (38:42):
I played him there and then I played a matchup
over Denny McCarthy with him as well.
Speaker 4 (38:46):
Not I got him going heavy on. But I like
this week other matchups for me. Fenw over Jordan Speith.
Speaker 5 (38:52):
Jordan, I really like that one, even though we're talking
about the volatility and Fenw's game right now. Jordan Speeth,
I have no idea what to make of, so I
will take the top ten or the matchup.
Speaker 4 (39:01):
Bet on him. Patrick Kayley another guy Wes I know
you're on man, I got close. I bet him a
lot last year. Anybody that's been listening to this podcast
knows I like to bet, waste money and burn it on.
Speaker 5 (39:11):
Patrick Cantlay couldn't get through much more than a matchup,
but over Tyroll Hatton, I do like that.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
I think this is a.
Speaker 5 (39:16):
Good, great course for Cantla. Been playing a little bit
better recently, kiddie. I'm over to Demi McCarthy and Adam
Scott over Jason Day. Round out my matchups. That's everything
I got right now, be Adam some first round leaders.
Speaker 2 (39:27):
Tomorrow we can still Adam, we can still both win
on that. But I actually hadn't actually really popped in
my models. I actually have a top twenty bet end
on Yol Hatton this week. He is a dude that
if you kind of look at the stuff that I
plugged in, it was too much for me to ignore.
I mean, in multiple versions, Terroll Hatton was as high
(39:48):
as eleventh in the model, and that's you know, up
against a pretty stacked field here, So I couldn't ignore that.
I couldn't ignore where Saheatha Gala was continuing to show
up in the model. I don't think he has the
win equity to go and win a tournament with this
kind of depth. But I'll take a top twenty on him,
you know, a decent little payout on seat the Gala
on the top twenty, and then look, Xander top ten.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
It's it's just at this point.
Speaker 7 (40:12):
I probably have to add that again, that was one
of few winners last week.
Speaker 2 (40:15):
I mean, he's just one of the most He's just
one of the most consistent golfers out there. He just
doesn't have a ton of win equity. And I think
that's okay. And we talk about this a lot on
this podcast about win equity and listen, all these guys
might have zero win equity as long Ascotti, Schefler keeps
playing the way that he's playing.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
But you know, specifically, Xander is like he's just really
really really good.
Speaker 2 (40:33):
He just doesn't he's not awesome at anything, you know,
And with that, it's just he's an awesome top ten bet.
He's just going to be super, super consistent. So those
are the placement market bets for me. We already went
over rom I'm gonna go ahead and take the leap
here on Ludwig. He's great at the RBC, he was
awesome at the Masters. He ball struck his way to
a T fourteen at the Valero, even when he was
(40:54):
losing three plus strokes short game, three plus strokes putting,
still was able to be able to get a T
fourteen because he did everything else so incredibly well. Eighth
outright at the Players gained four strokes off the T
five point seven on approach twelve point three T to Green.
The kid is going to win. He's going to win
a major, He's going to win multiple majors.
Speaker 3 (41:14):
It's just win.
Speaker 2 (41:16):
And I like the fact that maybe there's a little
bit of this injury thing baked into this number. Maybe
it's because we did get the influx of the live
guys in here. But you know, I was not willing
to pull the trigger when we were talking about this
guys on the nine to one, ten to one, eleven,
twelve to one numbers we were seeing on him. But
now out of twenty two to one, I think it's
a little bit more fair and he can make the
(41:36):
card for me. Max Homa at thirty six to one.
Max on tough courses is basically just a mantra for me.
In golf betting. Quail Hollow T eight Augusta National T
three Bayhill T eight Tory Pines T thirteen. You look
at the Wells Fargo, he gained everywhere except off the
T and he only lost point one strokes off the
(41:58):
T on that so basically was neutral there and gained
everywhere else. Masters gained everywhere across the field. With all this,
something about Max's game really translates to these long, hard,
difficult courses. And that number attached to Max Homa too.
You just need him to be in contention come Sunday
and you can monetize that ticket for sure. At thirty
six to one, and this was a guy I talked
about that. I'm just gonna embrace the volatility here with
(42:20):
Justin Thomas out at fifty five to one. Look T
six at Pebble, T twelve at Waste Management, cut at
the Genesis, then T twelve at Bay Hill, cut again,
T sixty four cut, the next returns heads to the
PGA T five. It's just I'll take the volatility.
Speaker 7 (42:35):
I feel like he's been better this year than like
his form would suggests, of course, because he split with
the Bones Mackay and then brought in Matt Ministers, Patrick
Cantley's old bad guy before the Masters missed the cut
and then was very good at the RBC.
Speaker 6 (42:47):
Thomas was a potential ad. He was like the last
leave off for me.
Speaker 7 (42:50):
Of course, we know the hometown angle of Louisville Saint
Zavier High School graduate got honored in his hometown earlier
last week.
Speaker 6 (42:58):
So be a nice story.
Speaker 7 (43:01):
And look, two time PGA winner at Quail Hollow in
Southern Hills, very similar courses, I think to Valhallas, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (43:07):
It's just for me.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
The number now has drifted so far on him that
now you can kind of embrace the volatility. Is he
just as likely to get cut as he is to
like being contentional on Sunday? I think with the way
that his game is right now, answers yes. But at
fifty five to one, that's okay. You don't do that
with a guy that's fifteen to one. You're like, no,
this guy better make the cut and better be in contention.
But at fifty five to one, I will take a
guy that's just as likely to be cut as he
(43:28):
is to be in contention come Sunday again, Like we said,
heading in here to the PGA T five at the
RBC T twenty one at the Wells Fargo where he
just couldn't get it figured out on the weekend, but
still was able to struggle there to a T twenty one,
So do like him with.
Speaker 3 (43:40):
All that, guys.
Speaker 2 (43:40):
Of course, any plays that get added you will find
at beson dot com slash picks. If you don't already
have a subscription, you can go ahead and get that
use of promo code Golf, and we'll give you fourteen
months for the price of twelve over there. And if
you haven't already subscribe to the long Shots podcast, subscribe,
rate review and then share it and we might give
(44:00):
you a T shirt here from the Masters for West,
for Kelly, I'm Matt.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
Good luck on all your PGA bets.
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