Colin reacts to the Jets upsetting the Texans on Thursday Night Football!
He breaks down why the game was a great spot for the Jets against a shorthanded Texans team and why the Jets could control their own destiny when it comes to winning a wild-card spot for the playoffs (3:00)
Then Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 9 of the NFL slate.
20:30 - Dolphins vs Bills
22:45 - Cardinals vs Bears
25:30 - Commanders vs Giants
27:00 - Rams vs Seahawks
30:00 - Vikings vs Colts
37:30 - Broncos vs Ravens
42:45 - Cowboys vs Falcons
43:45 - Chargers vs Browns
46:00 - Packers vs Lions
(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.)
Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!
#Volume #Herd
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, basketball season is here, and there's only one
place to go for tickets, and you know where that
is game Time. They have a new feature called game
Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only
incredible deals on great seats, so you don't have to
waste time searching through thousands of tickets. When I want
to go to a basketball game, football game, concert, comedy show,
just click on the event you want to attend. Game
Time gives me a seat preview, offers me a great deal.
(00:27):
I get the best bang for my buck. Game Time
also has the lowest prices guaranteed or they will credit
you one hundred and ten percent the difference. So take
the guestwork out of buying tickets with game Time Picks.
Download their app game Time App ninety seconds, create an account,
use the code colin that's me Coli in twenty bucks
off your first purchase again terms apply redeem codes Colin
(00:48):
Coli in twenty bucks off. Download game Time today. What
time is it? Game Time? Hi everybody, and welcome in.
In about ten minutes, we'll have Chad Millman, which we
do sharper square where I give him about seven or
eight of my picks and he chews him up and
spits him out. And I'm taking more and more favorites
(01:11):
these days, as I think you do get to a
point in the season where the better teams separate, the
better coaches separate. Everybody gets banged up. It's a war
of attrition at this point. You see all these players dropping.
Sometimes DeVante Adams, the player goes out, comes back in.
He did had a touchdown. So the Jets beat the
Texans twenty one to thirteen on Hallowing. The Jets dressed
up as a pretty good football team. Aaron Rodgers I
(01:32):
thought played especially, you know, in the second half. I
thought he played pretty well. I've seen that so many
times this year where a quarterback brought Purtty against the
Cowboys Russell Wilson a couple of times Aaron Rodgers tonight,
where it just they just can't get it right in
the first half and then they just they get warmed up.
And I thought Aaron played a really good second half.
(01:54):
You know, when you have Bresall, when you have Davonte Adams,
when you have Garrett Wilson, you know, those are real weapons,
you know, if you can get decent protection. Aaron had
a nice run tonight. It got called back because of
a holding on the rookie from Penn State, but that
was a really nice run. He had two hundred and
eleven yards, twenty two to thirty two, three tds, no picks.
I like the Jets tonight. It was one of my
(02:15):
stronger plays. It would have been my first or second
strongest play if it was on Sunday. And I think
the you know, the reality of this game. It was
a really bad spot for a beat up Texans team
that can't protect CJ. Stroud. So the Jets had eight
sacks tonight, which is about double what teams have beginning
against Houston. But they're you know, they're down to Tank
Dell and a bunch of third and fourth level receivers.
(02:38):
So it was a good spot for the Jets. And
what's interesting for the Jets, and this is why this
win matters. So, yeah, two of their wins a short
week at home Patriots and Texans. But now think about this,
it's an advantage because the Jets are not going to
win a division. We know the Bills are going to
win the division. The Ravens will eventually win their division,
the Chiefs will win their Division Colts, Texans will go
(02:59):
back and fourth. But this is key the teams. The
Jets only hope to get into the playoffs is as
a wild card team, and right now, unless they go
on a losing streak, Pittsburgh looks like it will be
one of those wild card teams. But there's two other
wild card spots. And the good news is the Jags
could be one of those teams the Jets play them.
The Colts could be one of those teams Jets host
(03:22):
them in a couple of weeks. The Texans could be
one of those teams. The Jets just beat them. So
it looks like to me the three playoff teams in
the AFC we know are Bills, Ravens will make it.
They're just too good unless Lamar got hurt, and the Chiefs,
and then you're going to be battling the Colts, the Jags,
the Texans, the Chargers, the Steelers for three wild card spots.
(03:47):
And you've already got a w over the Texans and
you get the Colts at home. You also get the
advantage when you play on Thursday night, you get four
days extra rest against your next opponent that's Arizona. So
they'll have to travel out to the desert in Arizona,
but you got extra rest. Arizona plays a very physical
Chicago Bears team, a really good defense for the Chicago
(04:08):
Bears off a humiliating loss. So I'm sure the Bears,
you know, that's gonna be a physical game against Arizona.
You're gonna be more rested, more prepared. With a veteran
quarterback and Aaron Rodgers coming off a very good outing.
The more he plays with the Vonte Adams, the veteran,
it's gonna work. So they've got the pieces. I don't
think they're a brilliantly coached team, but I've said this before.
(04:29):
There's three really good teams in the AFC. Then you
know it's pretty mushy in the wild card race. Miami's
not as good as we thought. Chargers just they have
very limited firepower. Unless they make a trade at the deadline,
the Chargers are going to be in a bunch of
close games. If they played the Jets tomorrow, it would
be a close game. I mean, the Chargers just can't
(04:49):
They can't beat anybody badly. They don't have any playmakers.
Lad mcconkee, the rookie is like a two. He's twitchy
and clever, but he's not a burner. He's not an
over the top guy. Doesn't have huge separation in the NFL.
So I mean, it's what do I think about the Jets. Well,
they ran for about one hundred yards tonight, Aaron was comfortable,
(05:10):
Aaron had time to throw, and the schedule works out
extra rest for Arizona, Colt Seattle at home, Rams later
at home. I mean, only one team the Jets play
the rest of the way right now has a winning record,
the Buffalo Bills, and they're not one of the divisions,
so they don't have to worry about Buffalo. So it's
all right in front of you.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
I like CJ. Stroud, but he's down to second and
third tier receivers. They can't protect him. Joe Mixon's a
hell of a player. That was his number one weapon tonight.
But the Jets win twenty one to thirteen. And you know,
I was thinking about this. I was talking to Jmack
on the phone tonight. He was out with kids doing Halloween.
So I live in a place without a lot of
kids coming up, So I went out for a walk
and saw the kids in the neighborhood out having a
(05:51):
good time. But when I came back, I was talking
to Jmac and you know, New York has just had
a really rough stretch for a decade in sport. I mean,
the Yankees, it really wasn't competitive against the Dodgers. It
really wasn't they won a single game. Both the Padres
and the Mets matched up better against the Dodgers than
the Yankees did. The Yankees won one game, and it
was a bullpen game by the Dodgers. They went on
(06:14):
and too in the games in which Garrett Cole pitched.
They're just they're just, you know again, they beat they
can beat the Guardians, but the Yankees, they just don't
match up to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were beat up.
They'll be a significantly better and healthier team next year.
The Giants and the Jets, at least one of them
has Aaron Rodgers and Quentin Williams. You know, the Knicks
(06:35):
are a nice story, but I don't think they're in
the class of the Celtics. So it's it's been rough.
I mean, it's it's you know, the Mets have a
rich owner and Francisco Lindoor is a remarkable player. But
they have good players and one great player, So I
mean they people. You know, you think to yourself, God,
why does anybody care about the Jets if you're in
New York? I mean because of Devonte Adams and and
(06:56):
and Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. You know, they have
their moments and like in the second half tonight, they
have their moments where they look competitive. So you know,
here's the good news for New York Colts, Jags, Texans,
all these teams that they can make up ground and
if they beat him head to head in the wild
(07:18):
card race and the AFC, I don't think they're going
to get there. I'll still stand by my prediction. I
think they're an eight or nine win team. But I
do think DeVante Adams like tonight in that second half,
and you can see the more he and Aaron play together.
And what I really liked about Aaron tonight is he
was really into it. He was really into it. He
had good energy in the second half. He was pumping
(07:38):
his fist, he was fired up. And that's what you
worry about with Aaron. He can be a very moody guy,
and I've said he I had an NFL coach tell
him a pretty famous NFL coach won't say he's just
Jay Cutler with talent, is that he's kind of a moody, prickly,
difficult guy. The difference is Aaron can really, when he
has time to throw, really can spin it. And tonight
(07:59):
he was in a groove. He had great energy, He
played inspired and it was fun to watch. The first
ALB wasn't fun, but twenty one to thirteen Jets win,
and it's something. Eight sacks ran the ball effectively. Aaron
had a good night. Now you have extra prep time
against the Arizona Cardinals. I love this time in the
NFL season because it does feel like the games get
(08:21):
a little bit easier to predict, just because it's statistically
defenses get hurt more than offenses, and you know, so
you get a separation. Now you get some finger pointing
in the bad locker rooms. The quarterbacks and the best
coaches feel like they separate. I don't think the Jets
have one of the better coach teams, but I do
(08:43):
think offensively, and that's what this lead. Nobody's stopping anybody defensively.
I still think the Jets miss Robert saw on that end.
But offensively, you got to be able to score. And
you start looking at the Jets pieces. If Aaron's healthy,
it's something that it's better than the Giants. I mean,
there are a lot of teams in worse shape than
Aaron Rodgers, Breese Hall, a decent backup, Alan the Kid
(09:08):
from Wisconsin, Garrett Wilson, and Davontae Adams. There are a
lot of teams in much worse shape than that. And
and this point forward, the offenses winning this league. I mean,
you go look at January and February the last three
or four years, it's the offenses that separate. Nobody's stopping
anybody late. Everybody's all thinged up on that side of
(09:29):
the ball. Listen, don't bail on CJ.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Stroud.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
His last three games, he has a seventy six passer rating.
You're dealing with second tier wide receivers and there's no protection.
And this is like it's like Sam Donald. You look
at him with the Jets and you're like he's terrible,
and then you're like, oh, he goes to Minnesota and
he has a good coach, and he has good protection,
and he has weapons and got Sam Donald's pretty good.
It's amazing how it looks. You go watch Brock Prudy
(09:55):
without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel's banged up, and you're like, ah,
what is he? Well, you know, all of a sudden
second half last week, he's moving. You know, you watch
Brock pretty Now as Jennings gets healthy and McCaffrey comes back,
you're gonna look at him and go, oh, he's pretty Folks.
There's like one or two guys in this league. Lamar Jackson,
(10:16):
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes are about it where it doesn't
really matter who's healthy and who's not. That's about it.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Stroud He hasn't reached his peak yet. He'll probably reaches
he'll go into his prime after next season. This is
year two, next year, year three, year four to year
nine to ten, six years prime, won't have many surgeries
at that point. Still fresh now knows the game, knows
(10:45):
the coverages. He hadn't even reached this prime yet. So
you've got like second and third tier receivers, terrible protection,
and it's a defensive head coach. So you know he's
got a coordinator. But if that coordinator leaves that's not
ideal Bobby Slowick. So you know, I just there's three
guys in the world that it doesn't really matter. They're
just going to be wildly productive Mahomes Alan Lamar. For
(11:08):
guys like c J. Stroud, he's closer to a Sam Donald.
I think he's a better thrower with the football than
Sam Darnold, and he's a better athlete and a bigger,
stronger version of Rock Purty. But in the end, there's
the three greats and then a lot of these guys.
It's just circumstantial, and he'll be fine when they get
Nico Collins back. Nico Collins is uncoverable and they get
(11:31):
their offensive line straightened out. But don't sell any stock.
We've seen this kid when he has support and he's
really good. Everybody in this league. You know, Baker Mayfield
has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Oh, he's pretty good,
and they get hurt. He's not as good. He just
lost to Atlanta. That's the way it works for ninety
percent of the quarterbacks in this league. Does your favorite
(11:54):
NBA player have what it takes to be crowned King
of the Court? Find out at DraftKings Sportsbook. And officials.
Betting partner of the NBA DraftKings is offering one million
a day in bonus bets for the first ten days
of the NBA season. That's ten million in bonus bets.
Here's how to shoot your shot. Opt in get a
daily NBA Profit Boost token. You pick a pregame NBA
(12:15):
player prop to boost. If that player leads the league
that night in points, rebounds assists, you win a share
of a million bucks in bonus bets. Just download the
DraftKings sportsbook app. The code is colin coli in to
want a share of a million dollars in bonus bets.
If your player is King of the Court only on DraftKings,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler In New York
call eight seven seven eight hope and WY or text
hope and Y four six seven three six nine in Connecticut.
Help is available for problem gambling Call eight eight eight
seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG
dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill casino
when resorting Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies
(12:55):
by jurisdiction. VOYD in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred
and sixty eight hours after issuings. Four additional terms and
responsible gaming resources see dkng Don Coe slash b Ball.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Time for an ender edition of Sharper Square with Chad Millman,
the co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
I felt pretty good about my picks, I said in
week six or seven, I start to just go with quarterbacks.
I think defenses get statistically more beat up, more injured.
Quarterbacks are even more important. Teams in locker rooms move
off players, more finger pointing. The better cultures win, the
(13:28):
better coaches win, the better quarterbacks win. So there's a
couple of big favorites I like this weekend, and they
don't normally do that. Let's go to the underdogs though,
Dolphins plus six at the Bills. I like Miami. Okay,
So this has been a series dominated by Buffalo, no question,
but they've played very good. They're really feeling themselves. They
(13:49):
travel cross country. Now it's back Miami. Two is the
first game back off of concussion. They actually controlled that game,
led by ten in the fourth. Usually quarterbacks off concussions
don't play great in the first week, second week, third week,
fourth week. You see improvement division rival game really like
Miami plus the point sharper square.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Look, it's flipped. It opened at six, moved up to
six and a half. The wise guys liked Buffalo at
six and a half, and there's been a lot of
wise guy money moving this back down to six. It
might even get down to five and a half before kickoff.
So wise guys are on your side here. They like Miami,
they like two where they want to fade the Bills
(14:33):
because they've been playing so well. I will tell you,
I'll give you the other side of that argument, because
I've bet Buffalo at minus six, I will be against
the wise guys. I might be against you two. I
want to give everybody the opportunity to hear both sides.
Tua is terrible against teams that are good that are
on the road, Okay, two and ten straight up, three
(14:56):
eight to one against the spread away from home versus
winning teams. In his NFL career with the Dolphins. Also,
the Bills offense has been top three in the league
across the majority of metrics, superficial, advanced metrics, whatever you
want to do when it comes to rushing the ball.
The Dolphins are a terrible tackling team. So from a
(15:19):
matchup perspective and a history perspective, I think the Bills
have an advantage. But the Wise guys, they like what
they saw. They feel like two of the second game
back after the concussion, he's going to be better. They
feel like this Buffalo team it's a little bit too high.
It's inflated because of how well the Bills have been playing.
(15:39):
So wise guys are with you, Colin, but I'm not okay.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
So I like Arizona minus one and a half at home.
First of all, Matt eber Flus is the worst road
coach in the league. Terrible. Secondly, Arizona is better. Their
personnel offensively is the best kept secret in the league.
I love Connor the back, McBride the tight end. Harrison
now is getting more consistent. He's a dog kyler Murray
(16:07):
in the second half was outstanding. And I never trust
this team's consistency and maturity. But I like the staff.
I like their fight Chicago. If you start looking at Chicago,
they unraveled last week. They really did. They were lucky
to be in a position to lose by hail Mary.
(16:28):
Arizona's a good home team. Eber Flu's awful on the road.
Arizona minus one and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Yeah, it's sharp ish, like if the wise guys are
playing anything here, they're playing Arizona, but it's not primary
in the games. They're betting. A lot of wise guys
I talked to, they kind of want to pass on
this game. In a perfect world, in a vacuum, they
bet on the Bears. The Bears are more talented offensively.
(16:56):
They're a really good defensive team, and they're really good
at rushing the passer, and they're really good in coverage.
Now the challenge for the Bears is Montes Sweat didn't
practice on Wednesday. Has an injured shin. We don't know
what his status will be. They're ten and five with
Montes Sweat since he joined the team. Okay, number one,
that's really good for pass rush. Number two, Braxton Jones
(17:19):
there left tackle. He probably isn't going to play. Did
not practice this week. They were terrible when he left
the game last week. Caleb was running for his life,
and then they got worse when Braxton Jones backup came
in and Braxton Jones backup is not going to be
playing this week, so they're scraping the bottom of the
barrel there. But here's what's interesting about Kyler. Kyler is
great in the chaos and what the Bears would create
(17:42):
and what their strength is is creating chaos for quarterbacks
because they are so good at rushing the passer and
so good in coverage. So kyler strengths actually plays to
the Bear strength, which is another reason why the wise
guys aren't quite looking to rush to bet this game.
And like you, eberflus Man, and I can't imagine you
(18:03):
don't have a theory on this, but as a Bears fan,
why draft Kaleb Williams and then keep a coach who's
a defensive coach who if he doesn't do well this year,
you know you're going to get rid of then you're
going to bring in a new coach. And you've basically
wasted a year and created bad habits for Caleb Williams. Right,
So now all of a sudden, ebra flus is basically
throwing his team under the bus, saying we practiced this
play the Hail Mary every single week. I don't know
(18:26):
why the guys didn't do it right. That hasn't sat well,
so people don't know what they're going to get with
the Bears this week.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Okay, you know I love the magic number four, four
and a half and five. I take the favorites. Washington
thoroughly outplayed Chicago, and Chicago's a pretty decent team. The Giants, now,
as we talked about no Andrew Thomas Daniel Jones visibly
frustrated during the week two point conversion against the Steelers.
They're off him. Everybody in the building knows that. It
(18:54):
just feels like a horrible environment. The owner has supported
the GM and the coach, the quarterback. I think Washington's
a really good team. I think they're for real. I
think now Jaden Daniels is healthier. I didn't feel he
was at one hundred percent last weekend. I would take
Washington minus four. I know it's a division rivalry game.
Sharper Square.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
No, the wise guys are with you. They're they're betting
on Washington and it's a Normally they wouldn't right a
division game. Right, You're getting a home dog at more
than a field goal, you want to bet the home dog.
And we've got other games in which that is a
scenario this week, but right now, like three and a
half for a team that has lost its left tackle.
(19:35):
He was the only reason that you ever felt comfortable
betting on this team because he was so good at
stabilizing that line. And now Tyrone Tracy, who has really
been an offensive weapon out of the backfield for them,
the running back out of Purdue, he had a concussion,
not likely to play. You're right about Daniel Jones. I
think it's only a matter of time before they give
him the hook because they owe him, you know, twenty
(19:56):
three million dollars if he gets injured next season. So
I think pretty soon this experiment with Danny Dimes is
going to end.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Okay, I think the Rams are really a good football
team when healthy. In fact, if you go back to
last year when Stafford, Kyron Williams, Pooka, and Cooper Cup
play their seven and three in their losses at Detroit
and overtime at Baltimore in overtime, offensive coach and Matt
Stafford played on Thursday extra time to prepare. They only
(20:28):
have to give up one at Seattle. This is a
coach and a quarterback mismatch. They are now healthier and
like the Packers offensively. The Rams defensively are crazy young
young teams grow. They become better and better every few weeks.
The Packers offense just getting better every two games. This
(20:51):
Rams defense is high draft picks, hungry, no stars, fast, young,
and collectively very good. The Rams put away the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Here Sharper Square, Colin, You and I right now are
going into the foxhold on the Los Angeles Rams. The
wise guys hate this bet. The Rams opened it as
one and a half point underdogs. They are now almost
two and a half point favorites. The wise guys they
love Seattle at two and a half. I'm with you
(21:25):
and Simon Hunter and my co host, he's with you,
like we feel like we are alone in the foxhol
betting this game, and we don't see what other people
are seeing in Seattle. You've said this before. Sean McVay.
For all the bells and whistles, all the motion on
this team, he likes to run the ball. And Kyen
Williams has been a top five running back in the
(21:47):
NFL the past season and the half and he has
been amazing since this season began, especially against team like Seattle,
which are bottom third in all the rushing staff that matter.
They're total rushing yards yards per carry EPA per rush
like they are not a very good rush defense, They're
(22:07):
still a team that's developing its talent. Hookah's back. He's
a great run blocker. You saw that last week. He's
just so freaking big Cooper cup back. Stafford is great
in these situations. He's a quarterback at the end of
the day. Like you've said, there are quarterbacks that you
just don't want to bet against. And sometimes I make
my decisions about who I want to bet on based
(22:28):
on how uncomfortable am I going to be if I
am betting the other side and this quarterback has the
ball in the last two minutes. Matthew Stafford's top five
on that list. So you and I brother, if it's
in the blazon, you're going to be in a foxhole.
I'm going to be in the foxhole. Will be in
it together.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
There's a couple of games that are fascinating to me.
First of all, I don't know if it's a stay
away game. I think I would take the Vikings at
home minus five against the Colts because they're making a
quarterback change. Also, I think the Vikings I think the
Rams on the road and the Lions, those offenses and
(23:10):
those coaching staffs can make teams look very bad. And
I think Minnesota's defense, if you go back three weeks,
we thought it was pretty good. I think they need
to redeem themselves before they get into division play. I
think this is a good spot for them. I think
they have a quarterback advantage. I think both coaches are
really good, but in this spot with a quarterback change,
(23:33):
I think Minnesota has to get right. There's real urgency
here before they get to the Green Bays, the Detroit's,
the Chicago's in their schedule. I would take the Vikings
minus five sharper square.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, the wise guys have been betting the Colts. They
bet them at six, they bet them at five and
a half. If it's down to five, it means they
bet them again. The Colt situation is incredibly confusing. Shane
Steken kind of intimated that this was coming from ownership, right,
Like you look at Anthony Richardson, Completion percentage is not
(24:08):
a very good way to judge developing quarterback. And there's
been a lot of great analysis this week about if
you analyze each one of his throws. He's making the
choices that are the lower percentage throw but the higher
ROI if they're completed versus eight yard outs that won't
get you the first down, or twenty yard outs that
will get you the first down. And so there's decisions
(24:31):
being made there. And Shane Steichen, I'm a huge fan
as a coach. The wise guys are on this game
because when it became Flacco, they sort of felt a
little bit more comfortable that he can manage Brian Flores
defense and anything this guy throws at him. And don't forget,
the Colts have an elite rushing game. And we talked
about this last week. It's why I like the Colts
against the Texans last week. If you have a really
(24:53):
good coach who's a good play caller, and you have
an elite unit and you're a decent sized underdog, I'm
going to make that play. And that game played out
exactly as we expected it to play out with the Colts.
They dominated on the ground right and they had so
that Jonathan Taylor had more than one hundred yards rushing
in his first game back. They ran six point two
(25:14):
yards per carry. Like they will rely on the running
game they'll find ways to potentially keep this game close.
So feels a little bit trappy to bet the Vikings.
It's not going to be a game that I'm invested
in it all.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Okay, here's a game that I would never bet. You know,
I take the big number off the board. People try
to talk to me in the Lions Titans should have
won't do it. Ravens at home minus nine and a
half now, Lamar has taken a couple practices off the
Ravens by adding another receiver are telling you, listen, we
don't have Kansas City's defense or Buffalo's. We're going to
(25:55):
win by scoring. They want to ramp up this offense.
Their weakness is the back end, over the top. You
can beat them and Mahomes and Josh Allen might, Herbert might.
Bo Nicks isn't. That's not how they're built. He's not
a big deep ball thrower. He's more agile, mobile underneath.
(26:16):
Raven's weakness is not going to be exploited by Denver.
This is a tough spot. Raven's off a loss again.
Baltimore on most Sundays the last two years has been
the knockout artist in this league, blasting teams at home,
not beating them, blasting Niners Miami like Detroit. This is
(26:39):
a number, all swallow Ravens nine and a half. I
know I am as square as a lego.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Right, Not this week, brother, not this week. Like last week.
I tried to get you on the Lions. I love
the Lions, and like that was a no brainer from
the get go. It didn't matter what the number was
going to be. We were betting Lions the Ravens. The
wise guys are coming in on the Ravens. And it's
a little bit tricky because Denver's defense is peers, right,
(27:09):
get great pass rush, great pass rush, great against the run,
like their front four is phenomenal. But you can also
look at it and say they've played not very good teams.
They've had a relatively easy schedule, weaker quarterbacks, weaker quarterbacks. Right,
you can look at you can look at the Ravens
and say, okay, they should be dominating, but they laid
(27:32):
every they let every team back into it. And look
at what Jamis did last week. Look at what Jaden Daniels.
The Ravens were up by ten, they spread was seven
and a half. The Commanders lost that game by seven
because the Ravens let Jaden Daniels get back into it.
We've seen it week after week after week. The Ravens
give up seventeen point three points per game in the
(27:54):
second half this year. That is the worst in the NFL.
Only the Titans are at thirty one. It's like those
two and last week they were tied, and so the
Raven's number got worse this week and the Titans number,
after giving fifty two points, got better. That's how bad
the Ravens back end has been. If you watched that
game last week, Ross Tucker, who's a great broadcaster and
(28:16):
really good podcaster, he talked about like you look on
film and every single week this Ravens defense, the back end,
they look confused and they're communicating and trying to get
it right while the play is being called and while
the ball is being snapped. So it's a huge gamble
literally to take the Ravens at this big in number.
You gotta believe that boon Nicks won't be able to
(28:39):
go over the top in the same way. And you
know Sean Payton is going to have him sling it
like he's he's playing him like he's a fourth year pro.
So it's risky, but the wise guys are on it.
If you want to be on it, I can't walk
you off it.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Okay. So the game that's most interesting to me every game.
Every week, I pick a game and I want you
to convince me. So my natural thing is even off
of bye, Dallas just doesn't deliver much to the field
off of by against the San Francisco defense without Dray
green Law not really playing particularly well, some top starters out,
(29:14):
they couldn't generate much offense and they were dominated once
you went off script in the third quarter and adjusted
by the Niners. So I just don't like Dallas. Every
part of my being loves Atlanta minus two and a
half three every part. But Atlanta is off a very
very competitive divisional game, highly emotional game, and I can
(29:35):
see them coming back down the earth. I can see Dallas. Remember,
Atlanta offers no pressure. Guys like Dak and Gino Smith
with time to throw are usually really effective. So my
gut feeling is Atlanta's the side. I picked Atlanta to
be the number one seed in the NFC with twelve
to thirteen wins. I love them, but something tells me
(29:57):
Dallas is the side.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Here Dallas is where the wise guys are. And this
number gets to three, it gets bet down to two
and a half, it gets bet back up to three,
goes down to two and a half. The wise guys
definitely like the Cowboys here. It's a little strange, you know,
the Falcons. Kirk Cousins is basically run up his numbers
(30:18):
thrown against the Buccaneers and the Panthers. That's how he's
made had such a good year, and like he's played,
honest to guy, He's throwing like eight touchdowns and thrown
for eight hundred yards against the Buccaneers, and so you
look at those numbers, you're like, oh my god, he's
a Maybe he finally made Kyle Pitts look like what
everyone has been drooling about from a fantasy point of
(30:40):
view for the past three or four years. But against
regular teams, they're generally mediocre, and so the question becomes,
especially against teams that can cover and they can rush
the passer. So the question you have to ask yourself
is is Micah Parsons going to play? Because without Micah Parsons,
the Cowboys can't rush the passer. That is, you know,
(31:01):
part of the phrase and Achilles Heel for Kirk Cousins.
He's not very good against coverage right now. Is Deron
Bland going to play? He practiced this week the Cowboys cornerback.
If so, the Cowboys are much much better in coverage.
Dak Prescott is basically a mal Santa at this point.
Like he does not move inside the pocket, right he
(31:21):
just sits for four hours. The guy's just sitting there
giving away gifts to Cede Lamb. If he is able
to do that against a team like the Falcons they
can't get any pressure, then yeah, he's gonna slice them up.
Cowboys have no running game. They can't stop their run.
It is so ugly, it will be so uncomfortable. Everything
(31:42):
about these teams says fraud. So you're really just deciding
I'm betting on the underdog as a fraud.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Okay, there's always a game or two I missed. I
have a feeling Chargers Browns could be one of them.
I would be prone to bet against Cleveland after a win.
That would be my gut feeling. Is that one of
the games I missed.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Well, certainly, it's a game that a lot of wise
guys are talking about, and they have been betting on Cleveland.
This number has moved down. I think it was at
two and a half and no, down to two, now
down to one and a half. I'm with you, man,
I don't get it. And this is what makes betting
so interesting, right because you have to decide when are
(32:23):
you selling. It's like the market. Are you selling? Are
you going to hold on for one week too long?
Are you going to lose ten to twenty percent of
your value? Or are you getting out at the peak.
Let's break down the Ravens and the Chargers as competition
for Jamis. Let's break down Jamis as he played the
Ravens last week. He was great, sliced him up. Also
(32:46):
had a fumble at the end of the first half
that put the Ravens in position to score the go
ahead touchdown. Instead of being down six three, they're up
ten to six. The play before he threw that dime
to Cedric Tilman to win the game for the Ravens,
he threw a gimme interception to Kyle Hamilton. The Kyle
Hamilton dropped and there were three of those in that game, right,
(33:06):
So now you go look at the Chargers. The Chargers
have an elite run defense, they have a great playmaker
and Justin Herbert, who doesn't turn the ball over, you
know they are going to run the ball. Is Jameis
Winston going to get away with the same mistakes. That
is my concern in betting on the Browns. The wise
(33:28):
guys are betting that Jamis will continue to find a
way to be Jamis, and that because this offensive line
is getting healthier, because this defense is getting healthier, because
the game is in Cleveland, there's an upswing, there's still momentum.
I'm not buying it. So if you want to pass
on it, I get it. If you want to take
the Chargers, I get it. The Charger's number is getting lower.
(33:49):
It's a little trappy to take sort of the road dog,
the road favorite in this spot. So it's not a
huge play for me. But I will bet the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Anything else I missed.
Speaker 1 (33:59):
Yeah, I'll talk about the Lions and the Packers.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Well, because I don't know if Jordan Love is gonna play.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
Doesn't matter. Don't care. As Jay Cutler says in the
Urinal in Chicago, when someone tells them they went to Vanderbilt,
don't care. I don't care. I'm betting the Packers at
plus three and a half. And by the way, if
Jordan Love isn't playing and it's Malik Willison, the number
goes up to four four and a half. I'm still
playing the Packers. Matt Lafleur is an elite, elite schemer.
(34:32):
He has been amazing this season. Matt lefloor seventy percent
against the spread when he is an underdog, and by
the way, when he's an underdog of three or more
points eighteen and four, you got Jared Goff who has
a bocky ankle. You've got Jared Goff playing outdoors. You've
got the Lions at peak value right now. You've got
(34:57):
the Lions going against a Packers offensive line that is
a fantastic pass blocking unit. And this will be the
first time we really see the impact of not having
Aiden Hutchinson to rush the passer. And by the way,
Lake willis what has he done badly to not give
us confidence? He Mett with fluor understands what he is
(35:19):
getting into with that quarterback. This is a smash the
smash spot for the Packers. I love the Packers here.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
Well, that's why you're a professional gambler, and I'm a radioshmuck.
Speaker 1 (35:31):
By the way. By the way, nobody knows nothing until
the game is over. But I am definitely my toughest
loss of the year I took. You know, I love
the number four. I took green Bay against Jacksonville and
they kneel before rushing in. That was rough, right, that
was rough. I think I told you to take Jacksonville
(35:53):
at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
I know, but I honestly green Bay led. I felt
like I was in the wrong. I felt like I
was on the right. But the way I lost. I
remember last year I lost a doint on the Saints.
They like hit the crossbar maybe twice in that game.
I felt like about once a year. I laugh. I
don't get angry. I feel like you got to be
(36:14):
kidding me. They led by I think ten At one
point in the second half, they're going in running for
the touchdown and the guy doesn't die of the two
and I thought, well, okay, the experts, that's right.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
Yeah, that's how it works out. By the way, that
Jacksonville game was a joke. I was joking on the
podcast this week. I hated the Jacksonville bet. I didn't
want to make it. I thought it was a bad idea.
I hate that team. I'm not impressed with them. Everything
that we needed to go right in that game went right.
It was a lucky, lucky win. But then you got
(36:48):
to look at the Colts against the Texans, and either
I got lucky, we got we got either we got
really lucky with the Colts because the Texans were going
to the very least kick a field goal late in
the game. If Joe Mixon is ce J Shroud, don't
botch the snap, don't botch the handoff, and the Colts
recover and then you know they can go down and
(37:08):
do their thing or the game ends at three. It
wasn't going to go like that, But everything that leading
led up to that made it feel like a great handicap.
Everything with Jacksonville felt like a bad handicap, and we
just got lucky in the end. But you sort of
have to say to yourself, did I get lucky in
both games? Or were both games a great handicap? So
I'm going with they were genius ideas and I am
(37:29):
hoping the same thing happens with the Packers.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Sharper Square Chad Milman, co host of the Favorites All
Odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Thanks Buddy, see you Buddy, Joey Halloween.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Thanks the volume, Thanks so much for listening. If you've
enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review
The volume.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
All right, basketball season is here, and there's only one
place to go for tickets, and you know where that
is game Time. They have a new feature called game
Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only
incredible deals on great seats, so you don't have to
waste time searching through thousands of tickets. When I want
to go to a basketball game, football game, concert, comedy show,
just click on the event you want to attend. Game
Time gives me a seat preview, offers me a great deal.
(00:27):
I get the best bang for my buck. Game Time
also has the lowest prices guaranteed or they will credit
you one hundred and ten percent the difference. So take
the guestwork out of buying tickets with game Time Picks.
Download their app game Time App ninety seconds, create an account,
use the code colin that's me Coli in twenty bucks
off your first purchase again terms apply redeem codes Colin
(00:48):
Coli in twenty bucks off. Download game Time today. What
time is it? Game Time? Hi everybody, and welcome in.
In about ten minutes, we'll have Chad Millman, which we
do sharper square where I give him about seven or
eight of my picks and he chews him up and
spits him out. And I'm taking more and more favorites
(01:11):
these days, as I think you do get to a
point in the season where the better teams separate, the
better coaches separate. Everybody gets banged up. It's a war
of attrition at this point. You see all these players dropping.
Sometimes DeVante Adams, the player goes out, comes back in.
He did had a touchdown. So the Jets beat the
Texans twenty one to thirteen on Hallowing. The Jets dressed
up as a pretty good football team. Aaron Rodgers I
(01:32):
thought played especially, you know, in the second half. I
thought he played pretty well. I've seen that so many
times this year where a quarterback brought Purtty against the
Cowboys Russell Wilson a couple of times Aaron Rodgers tonight,
where it just they just can't get it right in
the first half and then they just they get warmed up.
And I thought Aaron played a really good second half.
(01:54):
You know, when you have Bresall, when you have Davonte Adams,
when you have Garrett Wilson, you know, those are real weapons,
you know, if you can get decent protection. Aaron had
a nice run tonight. It got called back because of
a holding on the rookie from Penn State, but that
was a really nice run. He had two hundred and
eleven yards, twenty two to thirty two, three tds, no picks.
I like the Jets tonight. It was one of my
(02:15):
stronger plays. It would have been my first or second
strongest play if it was on Sunday. And I think
the you know, the reality of this game. It was
a really bad spot for a beat up Texans team
that can't protect CJ. Stroud. So the Jets had eight
sacks tonight, which is about double what teams have beginning
against Houston. But they're you know, they're down to Tank
Dell and a bunch of third and fourth level receivers.
(02:38):
So it was a good spot for the Jets. And
what's interesting for the Jets, and this is why this
win matters. So, yeah, two of their wins a short
week at home Patriots and Texans. But now think about this,
it's an advantage because the Jets are not going to
win a division. We know the Bills are going to
win the division. The Ravens will eventually win their division,
the Chiefs will win their Division Colts, Texans will go
(02:59):
back and fourth. But this is key the teams. The
Jets only hope to get into the playoffs is as
a wild card team, and right now, unless they go
on a losing streak, Pittsburgh looks like it will be
one of those wild card teams. But there's two other
wild card spots. And the good news is the Jags
could be one of those teams the Jets play them.
The Colts could be one of those teams Jets host
(03:22):
them in a couple of weeks. The Texans could be
one of those teams. The Jets just beat them. So
it looks like to me the three playoff teams in
the AFC we know are Bills, Ravens will make it.
They're just too good unless Lamar got hurt, and the Chiefs,
and then you're going to be battling the Colts, the Jags,
the Texans, the Chargers, the Steelers for three wild card spots.
(03:47):
And you've already got a w over the Texans and
you get the Colts at home. You also get the
advantage when you play on Thursday night, you get four
days extra rest against your next opponent that's Arizona. So
they'll have to travel out to the desert in Arizona,
but you got extra rest. Arizona plays a very physical
Chicago Bears team, a really good defense for the Chicago
(04:08):
Bears off a humiliating loss. So I'm sure the Bears,
you know, that's gonna be a physical game against Arizona.
You're gonna be more rested, more prepared. With a veteran
quarterback and Aaron Rodgers coming off a very good outing.
The more he plays with the Vonte Adams, the veteran,
it's gonna work. So they've got the pieces. I don't
think they're a brilliantly coached team, but I've said this before.
(04:29):
There's three really good teams in the AFC. Then you
know it's pretty mushy in the wild card race. Miami's
not as good as we thought. Chargers just they have
very limited firepower. Unless they make a trade at the deadline,
the Chargers are going to be in a bunch of
close games. If they played the Jets tomorrow, it would
be a close game. I mean, the Chargers just can't
(04:49):
They can't beat anybody badly. They don't have any playmakers.
Lad mcconkee, the rookie is like a two. He's twitchy
and clever, but he's not a burner. He's not an
over the top guy. Doesn't have huge separation in the NFL.
So I mean, it's what do I think about the Jets. Well,
they ran for about one hundred yards tonight, Aaron was comfortable,
(05:10):
Aaron had time to throw, and the schedule works out
extra rest for Arizona, Colt Seattle at home, Rams later
at home. I mean, only one team the Jets play
the rest of the way right now has a winning record,
the Buffalo Bills, and they're not one of the divisions,
so they don't have to worry about Buffalo. So it's
all right in front of you.
Speaker 3 (05:30):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
I like CJ. Stroud, but he's down to second and
third tier receivers. They can't protect him. Joe Mixon's a
hell of a player. That was his number one weapon tonight.
But the Jets win twenty one to thirteen. And you know,
I was thinking about this. I was talking to Jmack
on the phone tonight. He was out with kids doing Halloween.
So I live in a place without a lot of
kids coming up, So I went out for a walk
and saw the kids in the neighborhood out having a
(05:51):
good time. But when I came back, I was talking
to Jmac and you know, New York has just had
a really rough stretch for a decade in sport. I mean,
the Yankees, it really wasn't competitive against the Dodgers. It
really wasn't they won a single game. Both the Padres
and the Mets matched up better against the Dodgers than
the Yankees did. The Yankees won one game, and it
was a bullpen game by the Dodgers. They went on
(06:14):
and too in the games in which Garrett Cole pitched.
They're just they're just, you know again, they beat they
can beat the Guardians, but the Yankees, they just don't
match up to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were beat up.
They'll be a significantly better and healthier team next year.
The Giants and the Jets, at least one of them
has Aaron Rodgers and Quentin Williams. You know, the Knicks
(06:35):
are a nice story, but I don't think they're in
the class of the Celtics. So it's it's been rough.
I mean, it's it's you know, the Mets have a
rich owner and Francisco Lindoor is a remarkable player. But
they have good players and one great player, So I
mean they people. You know, you think to yourself, God,
why does anybody care about the Jets if you're in
New York? I mean because of Devonte Adams and and
(06:56):
and Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. You know, they have
their moments and like in the second half tonight, they
have their moments where they look competitive. So you know,
here's the good news for New York Colts, Jags, Texans,
all these teams that they can make up ground and
if they beat him head to head in the wild
(07:18):
card race and the AFC, I don't think they're going
to get there. I'll still stand by my prediction. I
think they're an eight or nine win team. But I
do think DeVante Adams like tonight in that second half,
and you can see the more he and Aaron play together.
And what I really liked about Aaron tonight is he
was really into it. He was really into it. He
had good energy in the second half. He was pumping
(07:38):
his fist, he was fired up. And that's what you
worry about with Aaron. He can be a very moody guy,
and I've said he I had an NFL coach tell
him a pretty famous NFL coach won't say he's just
Jay Cutler with talent, is that he's kind of a moody, prickly,
difficult guy. The difference is Aaron can really, when he
has time to throw, really can spin it. And tonight
(07:59):
he was in a groove. He had great energy, He
played inspired and it was fun to watch. The first
ALB wasn't fun, but twenty one to thirteen Jets win,
and it's something. Eight sacks ran the ball effectively. Aaron
had a good night. Now you have extra prep time
against the Arizona Cardinals. I love this time in the
NFL season because it does feel like the games get
(08:21):
a little bit easier to predict, just because it's statistically
defenses get hurt more than offenses, and you know, so
you get a separation. Now you get some finger pointing
in the bad locker rooms. The quarterbacks and the best
coaches feel like they separate. I don't think the Jets
have one of the better coach teams, but I do
(08:43):
think offensively, and that's what this lead. Nobody's stopping anybody defensively.
I still think the Jets miss Robert saw on that end.
But offensively, you got to be able to score. And
you start looking at the Jets pieces. If Aaron's healthy,
it's something that it's better than the Giants. I mean,
there are a lot of teams in worse shape than
Aaron Rodgers, Breese Hall, a decent backup, Alan the Kid
(09:08):
from Wisconsin, Garrett Wilson, and Davontae Adams. There are a
lot of teams in much worse shape than that. And
and this point forward, the offenses winning this league. I mean,
you go look at January and February the last three
or four years, it's the offenses that separate. Nobody's stopping
anybody late. Everybody's all thinged up on that side of
(09:29):
the ball. Listen, don't bail on CJ.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Stroud.
Speaker 2 (09:32):
His last three games, he has a seventy six passer rating.
You're dealing with second tier wide receivers and there's no protection.
And this is like it's like Sam Donald. You look
at him with the Jets and you're like he's terrible,
and then you're like, oh, he goes to Minnesota and
he has a good coach, and he has good protection,
and he has weapons and got Sam Donald's pretty good.
It's amazing how it looks. You go watch Brock Prudy
(09:55):
without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo, Samuel's banged up, and you're like, ah,
what is he? Well, you know, all of a sudden
second half last week, he's moving. You know, you watch
Brock pretty Now as Jennings gets healthy and McCaffrey comes back,
you're gonna look at him and go, oh, he's pretty Folks.
There's like one or two guys in this league. Lamar Jackson,
(10:16):
Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes are about it where it doesn't
really matter who's healthy and who's not. That's about it.
Speaker 1 (10:23):
CJ.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Stroud He hasn't reached his peak yet. He'll probably reaches
he'll go into his prime after next season. This is
year two, next year, year three, year four to year
nine to ten, six years prime, won't have many surgeries
at that point. Still fresh now knows the game, knows
(10:45):
the coverages. He hadn't even reached this prime yet. So
you've got like second and third tier receivers, terrible protection,
and it's a defensive head coach. So you know he's
got a coordinator. But if that coordinator leaves that's not
ideal Bobby Slowick. So you know, I just there's three
guys in the world that it doesn't really matter. They're
just going to be wildly productive Mahomes Alan Lamar. For
(11:08):
guys like c J. Stroud, he's closer to a Sam Donald.
I think he's a better thrower with the football than
Sam Darnold, and he's a better athlete and a bigger,
stronger version of Rock Purty. But in the end, there's
the three greats and then a lot of these guys.
It's just circumstantial, and he'll be fine when they get
Nico Collins back. Nico Collins is uncoverable and they get
(11:31):
their offensive line straightened out. But don't sell any stock.
We've seen this kid when he has support and he's
really good. Everybody in this league. You know, Baker Mayfield
has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Oh, he's pretty good,
and they get hurt. He's not as good. He just
lost to Atlanta. That's the way it works for ninety
percent of the quarterbacks in this league. Does your favorite
(11:54):
NBA player have what it takes to be crowned King
of the Court? Find out at DraftKings Sportsbook. And officials.
Betting partner of the NBA DraftKings is offering one million
a day in bonus bets for the first ten days
of the NBA season. That's ten million in bonus bets.
Here's how to shoot your shot. Opt in get a
daily NBA Profit Boost token. You pick a pregame NBA
(12:15):
player prop to boost. If that player leads the league
that night in points, rebounds assists, you win a share
of a million bucks in bonus bets. Just download the
DraftKings sportsbook app. The code is colin coli in to
want a share of a million dollars in bonus bets.
If your player is King of the Court only on DraftKings,
the crown is yours.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler In New York
call eight seven seven eight hope and WY or text
hope and Y four six seven three six nine in Connecticut.
Help is available for problem gambling Call eight eight eight
seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or visit CCPG
dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of Boothill casino
when resorting Kansas twenty one and over. Agent eligibility varies
(12:55):
by jurisdiction. VOYD in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one hundred
and sixty eight hours after issuings. Four additional terms and
responsible gaming resources see dkng Don Coe slash b Ball.
Speaker 2 (13:06):
Time for an ender edition of Sharper Square with Chad Millman,
the co host of the Favorites. All odds provided by DraftKings.
I felt pretty good about my picks, I said in
week six or seven, I start to just go with quarterbacks.
I think defenses get statistically more beat up, more injured.
Quarterbacks are even more important. Teams in locker rooms move
off players, more finger pointing. The better cultures win, the
(13:28):
better coaches win, the better quarterbacks win. So there's a
couple of big favorites I like this weekend, and they
don't normally do that. Let's go to the underdogs though,
Dolphins plus six at the Bills. I like Miami. Okay,
So this has been a series dominated by Buffalo, no question,
but they've played very good. They're really feeling themselves. They
(13:49):
travel cross country. Now it's back Miami. Two is the
first game back off of concussion. They actually controlled that game,
led by ten in the fourth. Usually quarterbacks off concussions
don't play great in the first week, second week, third week,
fourth week. You see improvement division rival game really like
Miami plus the point sharper square.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Look, it's flipped. It opened at six, moved up to
six and a half. The wise guys liked Buffalo at
six and a half, and there's been a lot of
wise guy money moving this back down to six. It
might even get down to five and a half before kickoff.
So wise guys are on your side here. They like Miami,
they like two where they want to fade the Bills
(14:33):
because they've been playing so well. I will tell you,
I'll give you the other side of that argument, because
I've bet Buffalo at minus six, I will be against
the wise guys. I might be against you two. I
want to give everybody the opportunity to hear both sides.
Tua is terrible against teams that are good that are
on the road, Okay, two and ten straight up, three
(14:56):
eight to one against the spread away from home versus
winning teams. In his NFL career with the Dolphins. Also,
the Bills offense has been top three in the league
across the majority of metrics, superficial, advanced metrics, whatever you
want to do when it comes to rushing the ball.
The Dolphins are a terrible tackling team. So from a
(15:19):
matchup perspective and a history perspective, I think the Bills
have an advantage. But the Wise guys, they like what
they saw. They feel like two of the second game
back after the concussion, he's going to be better. They
feel like this Buffalo team it's a little bit too high.
It's inflated because of how well the Bills have been playing.
(15:39):
So wise guys are with you, Colin, but I'm not okay.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
So I like Arizona minus one and a half at home.
First of all, Matt eber Flus is the worst road
coach in the league. Terrible. Secondly, Arizona is better. Their
personnel offensively is the best kept secret in the league.
I love Connor the back, McBride the tight end. Harrison
now is getting more consistent. He's a dog kyler Murray
(16:07):
in the second half was outstanding. And I never trust
this team's consistency and maturity. But I like the staff.
I like their fight Chicago. If you start looking at Chicago,
they unraveled last week. They really did. They were lucky
to be in a position to lose by hail Mary.
(16:28):
Arizona's a good home team. Eber Flu's awful on the road.
Arizona minus one and a half. Sharper square.
Speaker 1 (16:36):
Yeah, it's sharp ish, like if the wise guys are
playing anything here, they're playing Arizona, but it's not primary
in the games. They're betting. A lot of wise guys
I talked to, they kind of want to pass on
this game. In a perfect world, in a vacuum, they
bet on the Bears. The Bears are more talented offensively.
(16:56):
They're a really good defensive team, and they're really good
at rushing the passer, and they're really good in coverage.
Now the challenge for the Bears is Montes Sweat didn't
practice on Wednesday. Has an injured shin. We don't know
what his status will be. They're ten and five with
Montes Sweat since he joined the team. Okay, number one,
that's really good for pass rush. Number two, Braxton Jones
(17:19):
there left tackle. He probably isn't going to play. Did
not practice this week. They were terrible when he left
the game last week. Caleb was running for his life,
and then they got worse when Braxton Jones backup came
in and Braxton Jones backup is not going to be
playing this week, so they're scraping the bottom of the
barrel there. But here's what's interesting about Kyler. Kyler is
great in the chaos and what the Bears would create
(17:42):
and what their strength is is creating chaos for quarterbacks
because they are so good at rushing the passer and
so good in coverage. So kyler strengths actually plays to
the Bear strength, which is another reason why the wise
guys aren't quite looking to rush to bet this game.
And like you, eberflus Man, and I can't imagine you
(18:03):
don't have a theory on this, but as a Bears fan,
why draft Kaleb Williams and then keep a coach who's
a defensive coach who if he doesn't do well this year,
you know you're going to get rid of then you're
going to bring in a new coach. And you've basically
wasted a year and created bad habits for Caleb Williams. Right,
So now all of a sudden, ebra flus is basically
throwing his team under the bus, saying we practiced this
play the Hail Mary every single week. I don't know
(18:26):
why the guys didn't do it right. That hasn't sat well,
so people don't know what they're going to get with
the Bears this week.
Speaker 2 (18:33):
Okay, you know I love the magic number four, four
and a half and five. I take the favorites. Washington
thoroughly outplayed Chicago, and Chicago's a pretty decent team. The Giants, now,
as we talked about no Andrew Thomas Daniel Jones visibly
frustrated during the week two point conversion against the Steelers.
They're off him. Everybody in the building knows that. It
(18:54):
just feels like a horrible environment. The owner has supported
the GM and the coach, the quarterback. I think Washington's
a really good team. I think they're for real. I
think now Jaden Daniels is healthier. I didn't feel he
was at one hundred percent last weekend. I would take
Washington minus four. I know it's a division rivalry game.
Sharper Square.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
No, the wise guys are with you. They're they're betting
on Washington and it's a Normally they wouldn't right a
division game. Right, You're getting a home dog at more
than a field goal, you want to bet the home dog.
And we've got other games in which that is a
scenario this week, but right now, like three and a
half for a team that has lost its left tackle.
(19:35):
He was the only reason that you ever felt comfortable
betting on this team because he was so good at
stabilizing that line. And now Tyrone Tracy, who has really
been an offensive weapon out of the backfield for them,
the running back out of Purdue, he had a concussion,
not likely to play. You're right about Daniel Jones. I
think it's only a matter of time before they give
him the hook because they owe him, you know, twenty
(19:56):
three million dollars if he gets injured next season. So
I think pretty soon this experiment with Danny Dimes is
going to end.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
Okay, I think the Rams are really a good football
team when healthy. In fact, if you go back to
last year when Stafford, Kyron Williams, Pooka, and Cooper Cup
play their seven and three in their losses at Detroit
and overtime at Baltimore in overtime, offensive coach and Matt
Stafford played on Thursday extra time to prepare. They only
(20:28):
have to give up one at Seattle. This is a
coach and a quarterback mismatch. They are now healthier and
like the Packers offensively. The Rams defensively are crazy young
young teams grow. They become better and better every few weeks.
The Packers offense just getting better every two games. This
(20:51):
Rams defense is high draft picks, hungry, no stars, fast, young,
and collectively very good. The Rams put away the Seahawks.
Speaker 1 (21:01):
Here Sharper Square, Colin, You and I right now are
going into the foxhold on the Los Angeles Rams. The
wise guys hate this bet. The Rams opened it as
one and a half point underdogs. They are now almost
two and a half point favorites. The wise guys they
love Seattle at two and a half. I'm with you
(21:25):
and Simon Hunter and my co host, he's with you,
like we feel like we are alone in the foxhol
betting this game, and we don't see what other people
are seeing in Seattle. You've said this before. Sean McVay.
For all the bells and whistles, all the motion on
this team, he likes to run the ball. And Kyen
Williams has been a top five running back in the
(21:47):
NFL the past season and the half and he has
been amazing since this season began, especially against team like Seattle,
which are bottom third in all the rushing staff that matter.
They're total rushing yards yards per carry EPA per rush
like they are not a very good rush defense, They're
(22:07):
still a team that's developing its talent. Hookah's back. He's
a great run blocker. You saw that last week. He's
just so freaking big Cooper cup back. Stafford is great
in these situations. He's a quarterback at the end of
the day. Like you've said, there are quarterbacks that you
just don't want to bet against. And sometimes I make
my decisions about who I want to bet on based
(22:28):
on how uncomfortable am I going to be if I
am betting the other side and this quarterback has the
ball in the last two minutes. Matthew Stafford's top five
on that list. So you and I brother, if it's
in the blazon, you're going to be in a foxhole.
I'm going to be in the foxhole. Will be in
it together.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
There's a couple of games that are fascinating to me.
First of all, I don't know if it's a stay
away game. I think I would take the Vikings at
home minus five against the Colts because they're making a
quarterback change. Also, I think the Vikings I think the
Rams on the road and the Lions, those offenses and
(23:10):
those coaching staffs can make teams look very bad. And
I think Minnesota's defense, if you go back three weeks,
we thought it was pretty good. I think they need
to redeem themselves before they get into division play. I
think this is a good spot for them. I think
they have a quarterback advantage. I think both coaches are
really good, but in this spot with a quarterback change,
(23:33):
I think Minnesota has to get right. There's real urgency
here before they get to the Green Bays, the Detroit's,
the Chicago's in their schedule. I would take the Vikings
minus five sharper square.
Speaker 1 (23:45):
Yeah, the wise guys have been betting the Colts. They
bet them at six, they bet them at five and
a half. If it's down to five, it means they
bet them again. The Colt situation is incredibly confusing. Shane
Steken kind of intimated that this was coming from ownership, right,
Like you look at Anthony Richardson, Completion percentage is not
(24:08):
a very good way to judge developing quarterback. And there's
been a lot of great analysis this week about if
you analyze each one of his throws. He's making the
choices that are the lower percentage throw but the higher
ROI if they're completed versus eight yard outs that won't
get you the first down, or twenty yard outs that
will get you the first down. And so there's decisions
(24:31):
being made there. And Shane Steichen, I'm a huge fan
as a coach. The wise guys are on this game
because when it became Flacco, they sort of felt a
little bit more comfortable that he can manage Brian Flores
defense and anything this guy throws at him. And don't forget,
the Colts have an elite rushing game. And we talked
about this last week. It's why I like the Colts
against the Texans last week. If you have a really
(24:53):
good coach who's a good play caller, and you have
an elite unit and you're a decent sized underdog, I'm
going to make that play. And that game played out
exactly as we expected it to play out with the Colts.
They dominated on the ground right and they had so
that Jonathan Taylor had more than one hundred yards rushing
in his first game back. They ran six point two
(25:14):
yards per carry. Like they will rely on the running
game they'll find ways to potentially keep this game close.
So feels a little bit trappy to bet the Vikings.
It's not going to be a game that I'm invested
in it all.
Speaker 2 (25:33):
Okay, here's a game that I would never bet. You know,
I take the big number off the board. People try
to talk to me in the Lions Titans should have
won't do it. Ravens at home minus nine and a
half now, Lamar has taken a couple practices off the
Ravens by adding another receiver are telling you, listen, we
don't have Kansas City's defense or Buffalo's. We're going to
(25:55):
win by scoring. They want to ramp up this offense.
Their weakness is the back end, over the top. You
can beat them and Mahomes and Josh Allen might, Herbert might.
Bo Nicks isn't. That's not how they're built. He's not
a big deep ball thrower. He's more agile, mobile underneath.
(26:16):
Raven's weakness is not going to be exploited by Denver.
This is a tough spot. Raven's off a loss again.
Baltimore on most Sundays the last two years has been
the knockout artist in this league, blasting teams at home,
not beating them, blasting Niners Miami like Detroit. This is
(26:39):
a number, all swallow Ravens nine and a half. I
know I am as square as a lego.
Speaker 1 (26:45):
Right, Not this week, brother, not this week. Like last week.
I tried to get you on the Lions. I love
the Lions, and like that was a no brainer from
the get go. It didn't matter what the number was
going to be. We were betting Lions the Ravens. The
wise guys are coming in on the Ravens. And it's
a little bit tricky because Denver's defense is peers, right,
(27:09):
get great pass rush, great pass rush, great against the run,
like their front four is phenomenal. But you can also
look at it and say they've played not very good teams.
They've had a relatively easy schedule, weaker quarterbacks, weaker quarterbacks. Right,
you can look at you can look at the Ravens
and say, okay, they should be dominating, but they laid
(27:32):
every they let every team back into it. And look
at what Jamis did last week. Look at what Jaden Daniels.
The Ravens were up by ten, they spread was seven
and a half. The Commanders lost that game by seven
because the Ravens let Jaden Daniels get back into it.
We've seen it week after week after week. The Ravens
give up seventeen point three points per game in the
(27:54):
second half this year. That is the worst in the NFL.
Only the Titans are at thirty one. It's like those
two and last week they were tied, and so the
Raven's number got worse this week and the Titans number,
after giving fifty two points, got better. That's how bad
the Ravens back end has been. If you watched that
game last week, Ross Tucker, who's a great broadcaster and
(28:16):
really good podcaster, he talked about like you look on
film and every single week this Ravens defense, the back end,
they look confused and they're communicating and trying to get
it right while the play is being called and while
the ball is being snapped. So it's a huge gamble
literally to take the Ravens at this big in number.
You gotta believe that boon Nicks won't be able to
(28:39):
go over the top in the same way. And you
know Sean Payton is going to have him sling it
like he's he's playing him like he's a fourth year pro.
So it's risky, but the wise guys are on it.
If you want to be on it, I can't walk
you off it.
Speaker 2 (28:51):
Okay. So the game that's most interesting to me every game.
Every week, I pick a game and I want you
to convince me. So my natural thing is even off
of bye, Dallas just doesn't deliver much to the field
off of by against the San Francisco defense without Dray
green Law not really playing particularly well, some top starters out,
(29:14):
they couldn't generate much offense and they were dominated once
you went off script in the third quarter and adjusted
by the Niners. So I just don't like Dallas. Every
part of my being loves Atlanta minus two and a
half three every part. But Atlanta is off a very
very competitive divisional game, highly emotional game, and I can
(29:35):
see them coming back down the earth. I can see Dallas. Remember,
Atlanta offers no pressure. Guys like Dak and Gino Smith
with time to throw are usually really effective. So my
gut feeling is Atlanta's the side. I picked Atlanta to
be the number one seed in the NFC with twelve
to thirteen wins. I love them, but something tells me
(29:57):
Dallas is the side.
Speaker 1 (29:58):
Here Dallas is where the wise guys are. And this
number gets to three, it gets bet down to two
and a half, it gets bet back up to three,
goes down to two and a half. The wise guys
definitely like the Cowboys here. It's a little strange, you know,
the Falcons. Kirk Cousins is basically run up his numbers
(30:18):
thrown against the Buccaneers and the Panthers. That's how he's
made had such a good year, and like he's played,
honest to guy, He's throwing like eight touchdowns and thrown
for eight hundred yards against the Buccaneers, and so you
look at those numbers, you're like, oh my god, he's
a Maybe he finally made Kyle Pitts look like what
everyone has been drooling about from a fantasy point of
(30:40):
view for the past three or four years. But against
regular teams, they're generally mediocre, and so the question becomes,
especially against teams that can cover and they can rush
the passer. So the question you have to ask yourself
is is Micah Parsons going to play? Because without Micah Parsons,
the Cowboys can't rush the passer. That is, you know,
(31:01):
part of the phrase and Achilles Heel for Kirk Cousins.
He's not very good against coverage right now. Is Deron
Bland going to play? He practiced this week the Cowboys cornerback.
If so, the Cowboys are much much better in coverage.
Dak Prescott is basically a mal Santa at this point.
Like he does not move inside the pocket, right he
(31:21):
just sits for four hours. The guy's just sitting there
giving away gifts to Cede Lamb. If he is able
to do that against a team like the Falcons they
can't get any pressure, then yeah, he's gonna slice them up.
Cowboys have no running game. They can't stop their run.
It is so ugly, it will be so uncomfortable. Everything
(31:42):
about these teams says fraud. So you're really just deciding
I'm betting on the underdog as a fraud.
Speaker 2 (31:49):
Okay, there's always a game or two I missed. I
have a feeling Chargers Browns could be one of them.
I would be prone to bet against Cleveland after a win.
That would be my gut feeling. Is that one of
the games I missed.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Well, certainly, it's a game that a lot of wise
guys are talking about, and they have been betting on Cleveland.
This number has moved down. I think it was at
two and a half and no, down to two, now
down to one and a half. I'm with you, man,
I don't get it. And this is what makes betting
so interesting, right because you have to decide when are
(32:23):
you selling. It's like the market. Are you selling? Are
you going to hold on for one week too long?
Are you going to lose ten to twenty percent of
your value? Or are you getting out at the peak.
Let's break down the Ravens and the Chargers as competition
for Jamis. Let's break down Jamis as he played the
Ravens last week. He was great, sliced him up. Also
(32:46):
had a fumble at the end of the first half
that put the Ravens in position to score the go
ahead touchdown. Instead of being down six three, they're up
ten to six. The play before he threw that dime
to Cedric Tilman to win the game for the Ravens,
he threw a gimme interception to Kyle Hamilton. The Kyle
Hamilton dropped and there were three of those in that game, right,
(33:06):
So now you go look at the Chargers. The Chargers
have an elite run defense, they have a great playmaker
and Justin Herbert, who doesn't turn the ball over, you
know they are going to run the ball. Is Jameis
Winston going to get away with the same mistakes. That
is my concern in betting on the Browns. The wise
(33:28):
guys are betting that Jamis will continue to find a
way to be Jamis, and that because this offensive line
is getting healthier, because this defense is getting healthier, because
the game is in Cleveland, there's an upswing, there's still momentum.
I'm not buying it. So if you want to pass
on it, I get it. If you want to take
the Chargers, I get it. The Charger's number is getting lower.
(33:49):
It's a little trappy to take sort of the road dog,
the road favorite in this spot. So it's not a
huge play for me. But I will bet the Chargers.
Speaker 2 (33:57):
Anything else I missed.
Speaker 1 (33:59):
Yeah, I'll talk about the Lions and the Packers.
Speaker 2 (34:03):
Well, because I don't know if Jordan Love is gonna play.
Speaker 1 (34:06):
Doesn't matter. Don't care. As Jay Cutler says in the
Urinal in Chicago, when someone tells them they went to Vanderbilt,
don't care. I don't care. I'm betting the Packers at
plus three and a half. And by the way, if
Jordan Love isn't playing and it's Malik Willison, the number
goes up to four four and a half. I'm still
playing the Packers. Matt Lafleur is an elite, elite schemer.
(34:32):
He has been amazing this season. Matt lefloor seventy percent
against the spread when he is an underdog, and by
the way, when he's an underdog of three or more
points eighteen and four, you got Jared Goff who has
a bocky ankle. You've got Jared Goff playing outdoors. You've
got the Lions at peak value right now. You've got
(34:57):
the Lions going against a Packers offensive line that is
a fantastic pass blocking unit. And this will be the
first time we really see the impact of not having
Aiden Hutchinson to rush the passer. And by the way,
Lake willis what has he done badly to not give
us confidence? He Mett with fluor understands what he is
(35:19):
getting into with that quarterback. This is a smash the
smash spot for the Packers. I love the Packers here.
Speaker 2 (35:27):
Well, that's why you're a professional gambler, and I'm a radioshmuck.
Speaker 1 (35:31):
By the way. By the way, nobody knows nothing until
the game is over. But I am definitely my toughest
loss of the year I took. You know, I love
the number four. I took green Bay against Jacksonville and
they kneel before rushing in. That was rough, right, that
was rough. I think I told you to take Jacksonville
(35:53):
at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (35:54):
I know, but I honestly green Bay led. I felt
like I was in the wrong. I felt like I
was on the right. But the way I lost. I
remember last year I lost a doint on the Saints.
They like hit the crossbar maybe twice in that game.
I felt like about once a year. I laugh. I
don't get angry. I feel like you got to be
(36:14):
kidding me. They led by I think ten At one
point in the second half, they're going in running for
the touchdown and the guy doesn't die of the two
and I thought, well, okay, the experts, that's right.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
Yeah, that's how it works out. By the way, that
Jacksonville game was a joke. I was joking on the
podcast this week. I hated the Jacksonville bet. I didn't
want to make it. I thought it was a bad idea.
I hate that team. I'm not impressed with them. Everything
that we needed to go right in that game went right.
It was a lucky, lucky win. But then you got
(36:48):
to look at the Colts against the Texans, and either
I got lucky, we got we got either we got
really lucky with the Colts because the Texans were going
to the very least kick a field goal late in
the game. If Joe Mixon is ce J Shroud, don't
botch the snap, don't botch the handoff, and the Colts
recover and then you know they can go down and
(37:08):
do their thing or the game ends at three. It
wasn't going to go like that, But everything that leading
led up to that made it feel like a great handicap.
Everything with Jacksonville felt like a bad handicap, and we
just got lucky in the end. But you sort of
have to say to yourself, did I get lucky in
both games? Or were both games a great handicap? So
I'm going with they were genius ideas and I am
(37:29):
hoping the same thing happens with the Packers.
Speaker 2 (37:34):
Sharper Square Chad Milman, co host of the Favorites All
Odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1 (37:38):
Thanks Buddy, see you Buddy, Joey Halloween.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Thanks the volume, Thanks so much for listening. If you've
enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and review
Host
Colin Cowherd
Popular Podcasts
Good Game with Sarah Spain
Good Game is your one-stop shop for the biggest stories in women’s sports. Every day, host Sarah Spain gives you the stories, stakes, stars and stats to keep up with your favorite women’s teams, leagues and athletes. Through thoughtful insight, witty banter, and an all around good time, Sarah and friends break down the latest news, talk about the games you can’t miss, and debate the issues of the day. Don’t miss interviews with the people of the moment, whether they be athletes, coaches, reporters, or celebrity fans.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Crime Junkie
If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people.