September 7, 2024 • 44 mins
Colin’s top takes of the week!
Colin reacts to the NFL season opener with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens by the length of a toe (3:00)! He explains why Lamar Jackson can’t get hit that much, why the Chiefs have solved their “weapons problem" and why he’s not selling his Ravens stock (6:00).
Then, Colin breaks down two of his favorite college football matchups of the weekend, Colorado vs Nebraska and Texas vs. Michigan and makes his picks for each (11:45)!
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a season opening edition of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for Week 1
26:00- Cardinals vs Bills
28:00 - Panthers vs Saints
32:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers
33:00 - Broncos vs Seahawks
34:45 - Jets vs 49ers
36:30 - Colts vs Texans
38:15 - Rams vs Lions
Finally, Colin talks ball with John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out”. They break down a huge opening win for USC over LSU (47:30), debate whether the Big Ten or SEC is the better conference after realignment (49:30) and weigh in on the restrictions Tom Brady faces as a broadcaster who is seeking an ownership stake in the Raiders (52:30).
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? If you
(00:50):
wonder why the NFL is king on television, twenty seven
to twenty tonight was a great example by that much
a doe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore was outplayed for
big chunks of this thing and almost almost tied it.
(01:11):
They almost certainly would have gone for two in the win.
And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. You know. Lamar
Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively,
nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes. Although
Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much
last year because it was one of the worst receiving
cores in the league. With Worthy, now that's a deep threat.
They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver Juju
(01:36):
Smith Schuster will become more productive over time. He just
got reacquired, so Watson Rice now where she Rice looks
like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget
guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy,
a nine to ten catch guy, but he adds an
element they didn't have. He's an over the top playmaker.
But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of
(01:59):
offensive penalty, especially early in the game. They don't throw
the ball down the field enough. And then you get
that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly,
he reminds me of like a great high school player
where he's just so much better than everybody else on
the field. He's like a high school football game and
there's one D one prospect and it's the quarterback and
(02:19):
he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar
Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic,
and that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes
and Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson
wasn't Tiger Woods, and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson
is so productive, he cares so much. Now, I thought,
(02:45):
my one real negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get
hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen
games in the regular season, two or three playoff games
played like that. Lamar's lost weight, he's thinner, and he
took a beating tonight. Now I think this game means
so much. Lamar not gonna slide, He's not gonna run
out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think
Lamar is going to play like this, this this sort
(03:06):
of physical football game on average. But he took a
beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense is fast and
physical that you have to reduce. You can't play like that.
But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He
is such a remarkable player, you know, he just he
(03:27):
doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. But he
finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah Likelely
is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that
that guy went down in the back of the end zone.
I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just
slammed down on the corner where it's not you know,
it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays.
(03:47):
What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes
over the course of the game. I think here's the
really good news for Kansas City. Last year. It's often
discussed right ad nauseum, that receiving course bad Rashi Rice
was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt
like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a
(04:10):
great one? Is he a top five to one? Is
he see the lamb? Is he Devontae Adams? No, but
he felt like a real, go to, high volume, thirteen targets,
nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
(04:31):
He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
don't think that he's going to lead them to the
Super Bowl. But he adds a dimension to an offense
that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
So you know, for the longest time of the game,
he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
(04:53):
Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
one in Rashi Rice, have a downfield threat. They have
multiple Watts and Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
(05:17):
It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
fourteenth player in the NBA draft, you're out of players.
Rock Perty's the last gun I taken. And Isaiah Pacheco
I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
on him. He's impossible to bring down, run so hard
he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
(05:39):
weapon he is? So Kansas City's weapons shortage, they're gonna
be fine there. And this is you're just looking at
two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And
there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes.
You know, they led twenty to ten at one point
(05:59):
at I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore
was just kind of trying to find its footing. They
weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas
City and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know,
if you watch that game, you could say Kansas City
controlled big chunks of it. And here comes Lamar just
putting the team on his back, taking too many shots,
(06:21):
running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just
an Alzheimer, just an absolute ald timer. But you know,
sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger
Woods out, think how many tour events Mickelson wins. I mean,
Philip he had to have over like forty five tour wins.
Didn't he take out one guy? Take out Barkley and
(06:42):
it changes take out MJ. It changes Barkley's career with titles,
take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady, There's so
many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing
because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that
on FS one today. God Lamar is just so unique
and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight and
(07:05):
you just can't play that way. A day with Baltimore
and Kansas City each to night, all the weapons, all
the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I
kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now
that Stefan Diggs is out? Like I'm watching all these
weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You
know who matches up in the AFC Houston. Houston's got
(07:28):
these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico'collins,
c J. Stroud, Like I'm both these teams tonight. I
mean it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys,
it's running backs, it's all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo
is I like cook a couple good tight ends, a
(07:50):
rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was
last year, and they may be weapons short. And that's
why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston.
I mean, at some point last year may have been
the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been
the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field,
They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had
(08:12):
the gate keep the games pretty close and low scoring.
Now this team's back to I mean again, this is
Worthy's first game. What's Xavi, You're Worthy going to do?
When we gate through thirteen? We ten through seventeen. So
last year may have been the year to get Kansas City.
(08:32):
What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro
gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around now.
I may be staring at the ceiling at one in
the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so
lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm
sitting there tonight. I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food,
and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean,
(08:53):
this is how good is this? Arrowhead? Mahomes Reed, Harball,
Lamar Jackson. I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play
particularly well and it was this close. So you can
sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't
think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played
that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense,
(09:16):
you know, because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense.
He'll just never get the love. It is so fast,
so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers
that move well. That's it where Baltimore probably goes for
two and has a chance to win. When you don't
play particularly well on the road and narrowhead and almost
(09:36):
beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried these two will meet again.
That's what it feels like to me. One of the
more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Deon Sanders
and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now,
Travis Hunter and Shader Sanders for the Buffaloes are the
two best players in the game, and they alone may
(09:59):
be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I
like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is,
if you go to last year, nobody lost more close
games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They
needed a couple of transfers, they needed to get a
little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if
(10:20):
it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it was Michigan State.
They lost by a field goal, it felt like every week,
and they were shooting themselves in the foot with a
lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors,
five junior start and that matters a lot of starts
against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't
(10:43):
loved for the last couple of years. Again, Colorado's got
the two best players in this game, maybe the three
or four. Best depth experience I like Nebraska. The other
thing is that Colorado has by and large last three
matchups is at one Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I
(11:06):
tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
I think when you take over a program, first of all,
the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
and then the following year, if you have the right
(11:26):
coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
though it won't be a perfect game A Shadure Sanders,
he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
(11:49):
almost feel like if Shadure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
him just on football, he could be the number one
pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
moving pocket, moving left, moving moving forward. He has tremendous
ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
(12:09):
So I think Colorado is gonna score some points to
be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, is
a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion
maybe a better recruiter. But I mean Nebraska was I
looked it up this morning, top thirty and tackles for
loss last season and now this defense six seniors, five juniors,
is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Reyola.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
They like him.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Shugar Sanders,
but he's fine. Nebraska at home more experienced defense. Matt
Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm gonna take
him by about eight to ten points here, Litt thirty
three twenty four kind of feels like that to me.
(12:55):
I like the Huskers, all right, the game of the day,
it's on fock is Texas their first ever meeting in
the Big House against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about
two brands that big that have never faced in the
big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year.
I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were
(13:16):
hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters,
a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top
offensive lineman, and those were also in many instances leaders.
So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I
think the cultural vibe of the toughest physicality will remain
(13:36):
even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is,
I mean, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly,
but for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I
think there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan,
but they just lost too many leaders and too much
firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that
will be able to win a certain way. I think
(13:59):
Texas can win anyway, shootout, close, They're better at quarterback.
Now they lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
(14:21):
high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, a Lincoln Riley,
a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
even with big brands to get up to speed. So
you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that I think Texas
has a chance to play for the national championship. I
think they bring back more experience that offensive line for Texas.
Now that's some first and second round talent. That's a
lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, that's
a lot of starts and quinn ewers from diet to
His play on the field is a little bit more
(15:06):
structured to me last year than what I saw initially.
Was not a big fan initially, just played to loose
to J Cutler. To me, I like Texas here now again.
I think it's a pretty low scoring game. I think
Michigan has some top defenders are at home. Even good
college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at
(15:27):
this morning, get opened at Texas minus four. It's now
Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think
it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that
game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback,
I think you're gonna feel like Texas. They may stumble
a little early, intimidating big house. I think they pull
(15:47):
away late a little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio
State last couple of years. Physicality leaned on him late
third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team,
the better roster, the better chance of the National Championship
is Texas. I like the horns here by about six.
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Speaker 1 (17:38):
All right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
the Action Network. The Favorites, by the way, I have
one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
get to that later.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
All the one hundred thousandd thousand, Man, we're giving away
one hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Wow, thousand, one hundreds.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
We don't do a thousand On the Volume podcast network.
We're big time.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
a place out east, Yes, very close to where you live.
I played a lot of golf and during that time
a lot of time to think about odds. And I
almost did not do a first week of this. And
(18:35):
my take has been, the world's changed. All these sharps
pick at these line one odds. I have all summer
to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is
a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
be the best, but i got a couple I like
(18:56):
and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
end of last year. I think the last couple of
drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
(19:18):
nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
a half is not only the play. I think they
could win Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, like,
I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
(19:56):
They are really bullish on Arizona. This number action clicked down,
got down to six. It was much higher even during
the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I
think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. And
don't forget this is the kind of game that the
Bills historically not just cover, but dominate, right, And so
(20:20):
there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one
and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
back it up for folks, But this one is trickier.
I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget six
(20:41):
has become a lot more of a key number with
extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
give you a definitive. I can say, if I got
to play a side, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't
think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit
out here.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Goodlet's warm up.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
unit last year, worse than the league next to New England,
they've actually upgraded. So starters are now backups, and it's like, oh,
(21:25):
mingo can be a three or a four, not a
one or two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 4 (21:32):
Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
That is you have gone from kind of meh mid
as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network
we have been hammering all off season. We have been
(21:54):
hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
four and a half to five and a half. We
have been having hammering their odds to win the division.
Everything about this team last year, and you and I
talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do
this thing called luck rankings, So it basically takes all
of the randomness of football and puts it into a
(22:14):
formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year,
the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in
the NFL that is always bound to regress. In sort
of very analytic terms, they won about a game and
a half less than they should have based on the
stats and the randomness of games. So now all of
(22:36):
a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right, They've got
a couple of new guards, They've improved at receiver, They've
improved their coaching. Let's be very clear, Dave Canalis the
new head coach, he was the head coach. He was
the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from journeyman
to pro bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay
when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman to leading the team
(22:59):
to the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got
Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's
why this line is so inflated. This line was at
four and a half. It's gone down to four because
wise guys are betting it. And you cited about the Saints.
There was a survey before the seat, before we got
the preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about
their team. It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has
(23:22):
the shortest odds to be fired first Dennis Allen, who
is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr.
Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective positions as
head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against
the spread of any grouping for the past twenty years.
(23:42):
They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis
Allen is historically bad as a head coach with the
minimum seventy games, which is what he has. So you
are spot on one stat for you NFL Division underdogs
in Week one since twenty fourteen. So the Panthers as
underdogs to the Saints seventy one percent against the spread,
(24:04):
not only that they covered the spread by an average
of five points per game, which largely says I agree
with you. He could take a little bit of a
taste and I never mind this like a quarter unit
on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
Right, whether concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus
three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa
has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go
watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
(24:40):
I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
hired him, Steve Kin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
personnel's find Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
(25:02):
a team. This year, Tampa. I'm going to take Commanders
plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
This is probably seventh or eighth. Right, I will be
playing the Commanders. But this team right now, I just
talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers and you noted
there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
(25:30):
Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
in a higher than it should be point spread because
of perception. Right, the Commander's number two, number three overall.
Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
specifically Dave knallis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
(25:55):
career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
the command So the wise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (26:04):
An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
opening week, and I think Bo Nicks and Sean Payton
are going to be excellent together compared to what the
market predicts. I think they're a seven win team, not
a four win team. Do not like him here rookies
starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
(26:28):
Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark, two receivers, two tight ends,
two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
and I like Bonnicks. This is a rough opening week.
I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
on the road average eighteen point per game the past
ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They
(27:10):
loved the game plans he put together when he was
the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
here is just a little bit of a difference in
talent on the roster. Historically wise guys, they don't like
to bet against Sean Payton, like Sean Payton is their
(27:30):
favorite coach, right along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's
in the spot like they look at him not as
a rookie head coach, and a lot of ways the
way that people looked at Demiko Rans last year. They
got a lot of faith in what he can do.
So whise, guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half
against the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl.
But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do
worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost
huff to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much
about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line,
(28:04):
especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels
like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
but god, I don't get the line at all. I
would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Square, totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this colin
is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a
full point from three and a half to four and
a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public
betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this
(28:39):
line and Whilse guys are happy to take to four
and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to
the forty nine ers, that's the weakness of their team, right,
And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
the way he can move the ball around that they're
(28:59):
able to get away with having an offensive line that
is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact.
But they have a stout defensive line. They will find
(29:21):
a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
it's Colts plus the points I know it's the Colt
plus the point is it, of course it is.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
I n yeah, it's one hundred percent the Colts plus
I think you can get them plus three some places
plus three and a half. Now this line was two
and a half forty eight hours ago. The public is
steaming in on the Texans, and the wise guys are
buying on the Colts, and look, it's a little tricky
(30:02):
Anthony and Richardson has basically played like seventeen games at
quarterback since high school, right, and then you got the
Texans who look like they are all world. But I
do want to give some context here. The Texans do
not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured.
The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing
(30:26):
the majority of the games last season. I think Shane
Steiken is a genius of the coach and what he
did with Minshew and what he was starting to do
with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level
of play that the Eagles had last year on offense
and what you saw from the Colts is a direct
correlation between Shane Steiken being an Indie and not being
(30:48):
with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there
also to repeat division underdogs thirty seven to fifteen and
one against the spread in week one since twenty fourteen seventy.
This is a really good spot for the Colts against
a overvalued Texans team.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
I want you to just give my audience something here,
just just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So
I think the Rams the last two years, last year
and this year are undervalued. But their old line is
a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and
Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense
(31:31):
feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
I don't like their old line Hutchison had, according to
you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just
tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
(31:52):
that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 4 (31:57):
Your instincts are spot on. And this was the artist game.
The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
the bet We know it's hard to make, but you
one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
(32:19):
a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
these trends. Fifty eight percent sixty one percent, What that
really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
to do here is thread the needle and catch a
(32:40):
falling knife where the other forty percent of the time, right,
it doesn't work right, right? And so look, I love
the Rams and we have made so much money on
the Rams the past couple of years because I do
think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the cover
(33:00):
of Top three, top four, and he should. If there
was a great video this fall this offseason of CJ.
Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
(33:23):
but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
Lions because the variant is so high when you're betting
on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
as it did in the NFC title game. And when
the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
(33:44):
they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
a few teams with top five offensive line top five
defensive line pines on one side. Then you mentioned Aiden Hutchinson.
I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to leave the
(34:05):
league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
he was dominant no matter what this situation was, no
matter how often he was being double team he consistently
got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
(34:27):
in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
nine against the spread in doors. Jared Goff the most
profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan
Campbell the most profitable coach against the spread the past
(34:49):
five years. I know, like it's hard to bet on
a more than a field goal favorite in a game
that ended as a very short win for the line
last year in the playoffs, I think the lines have
gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a
little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent
isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
So one of the things John that really jumped out
to me, and I said this to start my rant,
is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations,
no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a
sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational
football in the red zone, very good two minute drives,
(35:44):
handled timeouts well, no turnovers again, very few penalties, two
freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns. Alignments were great.
I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight,
really buttoned up John the whole off. It's his freshman
and sophomores. I thought they looked great.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the
next seven days, loud and clear pound that table. To me,
two things really stood out first and foremost the size
of the defenders. I would say over the last decade
they felt small. They've had a guy or two here
on defense, but for the most part, they've had too
(36:24):
many guys that look like me, you know, in the
Pete Carroll Heyday and all these SEC teams. The visual
they showed of the transformation of the body types during
the game, I mean guys going from two thirty to
two sixty in an offseason was evident. Because the LSU
team has they got a top fifteen tackle, they got
another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in
(36:45):
the top thirty. The wide receiver, the number two looks
like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys
everywhere USC tackled physically, they didn't get shoved around. And
I think what really changed is the last two years
with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he
was Steph Curry or Lebron James. Yeah, it was kind
of like an individual, not a team, and it worked
(37:06):
two years ago. Last year at Backfire because the defense
was totally terrible, didn't they feel like a team? Didn't
they just feel like a group of guys that there
wasn't one necessity. I mean everyone was making place that
they felt like a total unit. And listen, you were
hammering this. I didn't believe Miller. Moss clearly's pretty good.
He's definitely tough, and Lincoln had the boys ready and
(37:28):
they they could have folded there in the second half,
and it was LSU that folded in. This why Brian
Kelly kind of snapped after the game.
Speaker 1 (37:35):
So the Big Ten went seventeen and one. And this
is something I thought about Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC,
especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state.
It makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon
and USC to the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade.
(37:57):
I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harva
is gone, after Ohio State. If I said the next
five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams
in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington. Like,
I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three
(38:19):
of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah
always counts, I think in that foursome, but with the
right coach USC, Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams every
time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Neuheisel,
Chris Peterson, Kaitlin de boor they vy for a national championship.
(38:39):
So it's like, I don't think people understand it's Texas
Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any
given year top twelve programs to the Big Ten, may
it be a better overall conference?
Speaker 2 (38:55):
Now, I think over the course of time, I think
this year there's gonna be a lot of reaction to
to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin, I mean, I'm
gonna give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I
mean that game was really weird. They played boys. They
played boys. This week, they better kick their ass and
kind of get after it because that was that was bizarre.
The quarterback play. I didn't know that much about him.
(39:16):
I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from
Los Angeles. That's Tennessee's quarterback. I got loose for you.
That guy's pretty special. Jackson dart Ole, Miss. They're pretty
good obviously, the two quarterbacks. The quarterback Dylan Gabriels at
Oregon because they told him, you're not going to start.
Jackson Arnold's gonna start. He's pretty good too. Their high
end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty obviously Carson Beck
(39:39):
and Georgia. Over the course of time. I think, you know,
USC is only going to get better if they keep
looking like this over the next two or three years.
Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of
question marks about Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four or five,
six seven group. Penn State you feel pretty good at
Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting
(40:01):
scouts all week and long. I mean, they're front sevens
full of NFL guys, and if that quarterback takes a
big step, that game got like delayed for twenty five hours.
But they could be a serious factor, I mean a
serious factor this year. So I think the high end
of the Big ten in the sec. It's pretty clear
that though Miami, I would still kind of red flag
(40:21):
the quarterback and be up and down. But they're pretty talented.
Speaker 1 (40:24):
So I think that Tom Brady situation's fascinating. I had
people asking me in the airport about this. I went
golfing and I had a couple of people ask me
about the story that he's going to be. You know,
he's trying to be a raider's owner, and if you're
a raider's owner, there are limitations on what you can
do in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
And had you heard about that? Had you heard about
that before like in the Halls.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
House, No, and so, And it's one of those things
that that's above my pay grade. That's management. But so
for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he
can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think
the production meetings is a big deal. I think have
you been watching this stuff? That Brady is allowing people
(41:01):
to see the binders he has from every single season,
everybody he ever faced. His preparation is even compared to
people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally
next level. And he just got off the field. I
don't worry about any of that. The only part of
it that concerns me, and it only may happen once
(41:21):
every two weeks, eight times a year that you may
have to call the officials and go, that's a blown call.
Now replay helps reverse a lot of miscalls. So again,
it's not the seventies eighties. But when I read all
the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility
(41:42):
dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip,
but be question officiating.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
Listen. I like my announcers. I think once everyone started
getting on Romo, Troyikman kind of got a swag back
and he'll light into somebody and I like that. Now
some people may be like more rosier. But here's the
one thing, there's twenty thirty million people watching this game.
When stuff screwed up. Now, at football, you have a
pretty good idea, and people don't like to hear rose
(42:10):
colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought, it's not
only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams.
To me, the restrictions that I read feel like god
part of my big question mark with Tom because turn
him on your show. He's he's awesome. I mean his
ability to speak complicated stuff, but I was like, let
his true personality come out. That he's known as a
(42:32):
great teammate. Part of that is being one of the
guys obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult.
It will not be difficult for him to get the
coaches and the players on the phone, right, that's call
him back.
Speaker 1 (42:44):
That doesn't feel like a deal, That doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
That's Peyton talks about that sometimes. On Monday night. I
talked to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. They can
go to him and Peyton get anybody on the phone
in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him
not being able to do that. If that's really serious,
can you argue and listen. I'm as pro capitalism as anybody,
but this feels like it's going to be pretty tough
if you one day. Actually, he's just never allowed to
(43:08):
do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job
if there are legit restrictions. Because it's easy this year,
but what about five years from now when you have
some coaches you know nothing about. Those production meetings do
hold some value, right, Y's one thing I'm not saying
to like divest from the Raiders, because that's pretty good
investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult.
Fox has given them almost four hundred million dollars.
Speaker 1 (43:29):
Yeah, and again, I rent all the restrictions and listen.
I'm I'm a corporate opinionist, so essentially, I have strong
opinions for companies ESPN and Fox that have rights with everybody.
And my take has always been I can say pretty
much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal.
(43:49):
I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or
Adam Silver, even now that we don't have the NBA.
I try to be fair with people, even when I'm
critical of people, like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield.
I've said he is a top twenty quarterback. I think
he's a great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people.
(44:10):
I root for the guy. I thought he was immature
when he came into the league. So I try to
qualify stuff I don't want to. I don't want to
be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil
because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners,
I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk.
I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or
an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to
me was the officiating because, and again Tom's such a
(44:34):
prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff, but
that one I think. I think what it would be.
It wouldn't affect him, but it would mean a lot
of bad press for him and Fox, and I think
corporations don't like that the volume. Thanks so much for listening.
If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and
(44:56):
review
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Time today. What time is it? Game Time? If you
(00:50):
wonder why the NFL is king on television, twenty seven
to twenty tonight was a great example by that much
a doe decides the game. Listen. Baltimore was outplayed for
big chunks of this thing and almost almost tied it.
(01:11):
They almost certainly would have gone for two in the win.
And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous. You know. Lamar
Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively,
nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes. Although
Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much
last year because it was one of the worst receiving
cores in the league. With Worthy, now that's a deep threat.
They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver Juju
(01:36):
Smith Schuster will become more productive over time. He just
got reacquired, so Watson Rice now where she Rice looks
like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget
guy early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy,
a nine to ten catch guy, but he adds an
element they didn't have. He's an over the top playmaker.
But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of
(01:59):
offensive penalty, especially early in the game. They don't throw
the ball down the field enough. And then you get
that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where I mean, honestly,
he reminds me of like a great high school player
where he's just so much better than everybody else on
the field. He's like a high school football game and
there's one D one prospect and it's the quarterback and
(02:19):
he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar
Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic,
and that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes
and Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady, you know, and Mickelson
wasn't Tiger Woods, and Barkley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson
is so productive, he cares so much. Now, I thought,
(02:45):
my one real negative with Lamar Jackson you can't get
hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last seventeen
games in the regular season, two or three playoff games
played like that. Lamar's lost weight, he's thinner, and he
took a beating tonight. Now I think this game means
so much. Lamar not gonna slide, He's not gonna run
out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think
Lamar is going to play like this, this this sort
(03:06):
of physical football game on average. But he took a
beating tonight, and that Kansas City defense is fast and
physical that you have to reduce. You can't play like that.
But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He
is such a remarkable player, you know, he just he
(03:27):
doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently. But he
finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah Likelely
is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that
that guy went down in the back of the end zone.
I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just
slammed down on the corner where it's not you know,
it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays.
(03:47):
What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes
over the course of the game. I think here's the
really good news for Kansas City. Last year. It's often
discussed right ad nauseum, that receiving course bad Rashi Rice
was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt
like a one tonight. You know, now, is he a
(04:10):
great one? Is he a top five to one? Is
he see the lamb? Is he Devontae Adams? No, but
he felt like a real, go to, high volume, thirteen targets,
nine catch guy for them they have now, Noah, great,
they've got a second tight end. Watson's around, Juju Smith,
Schuster and again Xavi are worthy. You know, I joked
when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy.
(04:31):
He's one hundred and sixty five pounds. You know, I
don't think that he's going to lead them to the
Super Bowl. But he adds a dimension to an offense
that since Tyreek Hill left, they don't have a downfield threat.
So you know, for the longest time of the game,
he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but
blown coverage later he gets a second touchdown and you
have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line.
(04:53):
Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody
scared you down the field. Well, now they have a
one in Rashi Rice, have a downfield threat. They have
multiple Watts and Noah Gray, Travis Kelcey. They've solved their
weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pichecko?
What did he drop to the seventh round? How did
they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane.
(05:17):
It's just it's amazing to me. You get to the
fourteenth player in the NBA draft, you're out of players.
Rock Perty's the last gun I taken. And Isaiah Pacheco
I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how
did all these gms watch film and just keep passing
on him. He's impossible to bring down, run so hard
he can catch it out of the backfield. What a
(05:39):
weapon he is? So Kansas City's weapons shortage, they're gonna
be fine there. And this is you're just looking at
two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And
there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes.
You know, they led twenty to ten at one point
(05:59):
at I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore
was just kind of trying to find its footing. They
weren't throwing the ball down the field. Second half, Kansas
City and that screen game pulls away. I thought, you know,
if you watch that game, you could say Kansas City
controlled big chunks of it. And here comes Lamar just
putting the team on his back, taking too many shots,
(06:21):
running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just
an Alzheimer, just an absolute ald timer. But you know,
sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger
Woods out, think how many tour events Mickelson wins. I mean,
Philip he had to have over like forty five tour wins.
Didn't he take out one guy? Take out Barkley and
(06:42):
it changes take out MJ. It changes Barkley's career with titles,
take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady, There's so
many great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing
because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that
on FS one today. God Lamar is just so unique
and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight and
(07:05):
you just can't play that way. A day with Baltimore
and Kansas City each to night, all the weapons, all
the talented players on the perimeter and running backs, I
kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now
that Stefan Diggs is out? Like I'm watching all these
weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks. You
know who matches up in the AFC Houston. Houston's got
(07:28):
these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico'collins,
c J. Stroud, Like I'm both these teams tonight. I
mean it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys,
it's running backs, it's all time quarterbacks. You know Buffalo
is I like cook a couple good tight ends, a
(07:50):
rookie receiver. You know, Buffalo maybe what Kansas City was
last year, and they may be weapons short. And that's
why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston.
I mean, at some point last year may have been
the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been
the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field,
They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had
(08:12):
the gate keep the games pretty close and low scoring.
Now this team's back to I mean again, this is
Worthy's first game. What's Xavi, You're Worthy going to do?
When we gate through thirteen? We ten through seventeen. So
last year may have been the year to get Kansas City.
(08:32):
What a night. I chewed two pieces of my neuro
gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around now.
I may be staring at the ceiling at one in
the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so
lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm
sitting there tonight. I ordered door Dash, eating some Mexican food,
and I'm sitting there watching that and I'm like, I mean,
(08:53):
this is how good is this? Arrowhead? Mahomes Reed, Harball,
Lamar Jackson. I'll just say it again, Baltimore didn't play
particularly well and it was this close. So you can
sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't
think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played
that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense,
(09:16):
you know, because of Reid and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense.
He'll just never get the love. It is so fast,
so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers
that move well. That's it where Baltimore probably goes for
two and has a chance to win. When you don't
play particularly well on the road and narrowhead and almost
(09:36):
beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried these two will meet again.
That's what it feels like to me. One of the
more interesting games this weekend is Colorado and Deon Sanders
and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now,
Travis Hunter and Shader Sanders for the Buffaloes are the
two best players in the game, and they alone may
(09:59):
be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I
like Nebraska for a lot of reasons. Number one is,
if you go to last year, nobody lost more close
games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They
needed a couple of transfers, they needed to get a
little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if
(10:20):
it was Iowa, it was Maryland, it was Michigan State.
They lost by a field goal, it felt like every week,
and they were shooting themselves in the foot with a
lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors,
five junior start and that matters a lot of starts
against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't
(10:43):
loved for the last couple of years. Again, Colorado's got
the two best players in this game, maybe the three
or four. Best depth experience I like Nebraska. The other
thing is that Colorado has by and large last three
matchups is at one Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I
(11:06):
tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.
I think when you take over a program, first of all,
the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing
the gap. Nebraska last year close losses. Generally those kind
of teams the following year start turning those into close wins,
and then the following year, if you have the right
(11:26):
coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I
don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet
against the better teams on their schedule, but I don't
think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule.
I like Nebraska by ten points. I think their defense,
though it won't be a perfect game A Shadure Sanders,
he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I
(11:49):
almost feel like if Shadure Sanders, if you're gonna judge
him just on football, he could be the number one
pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball,
moving pocket, moving left, moving moving forward. He has tremendous
ball placement, and he's kind of what everybody's looking for.
He can win in the pocket, he can win off script.
(12:09):
So I think Colorado is gonna score some points to
be a handful. But I think Matt Ruhle situationally, is
a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger presence. Dion
maybe a better recruiter. But I mean Nebraska was I
looked it up this morning, top thirty and tackles for
loss last season and now this defense six seniors, five juniors,
is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Reyola.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
They like him.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Shugar Sanders,
but he's fine. Nebraska at home more experienced defense. Matt
Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm gonna take
him by about eight to ten points here, Litt thirty
three twenty four kind of feels like that to me.
(12:55):
I like the Huskers, all right, the game of the day,
it's on fock is Texas their first ever meeting in
the Big House against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about
two brands that big that have never faced in the
big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year.
I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines are not They were
(13:16):
hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of eleven offensive starters,
a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top
offensive lineman, and those were also in many instances leaders.
So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I
think the cultural vibe of the toughest physicality will remain
(13:36):
even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is,
I mean, Mark Helfrich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly,
but for a year you couldn't tell the difference. I
think there's a lot of momentum program momentum for Michigan,
but they just lost too many leaders and too much
firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that
will be able to win a certain way. I think
(13:59):
Texas can win anyway, shootout, close, They're better at quarterback.
Now they lost three receivers to the NFL, but it's Texas,
it's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked
to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him
to differentiate in some instances starters from backups with Texas,
and we tend to rush to a judgment with these
(14:21):
high profile coaches A Kiffin, A Sark, a Lincoln Riley,
a Harbaugh, you can't. This stuff takes two and three years,
even with big brands to get up to speed. So
you're in the Ohio state class, you're in the Georgia
and Alabama class. This is the first time I look
at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to
toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
Last year.
Speaker 1 (14:44):
Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that I think Texas
has a chance to play for the national championship. I
think they bring back more experience that offensive line for Texas.
Now that's some first and second round talent. That's a
lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, that's
a lot of starts and quinn ewers from diet to
His play on the field is a little bit more
(15:06):
structured to me last year than what I saw initially.
Was not a big fan initially, just played to loose
to J Cutler. To me, I like Texas here now again.
I think it's a pretty low scoring game. I think
Michigan has some top defenders are at home. Even good
college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at
(15:27):
this morning, get opened at Texas minus four. It's now
Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think
it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that
game and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback,
I think you're gonna feel like Texas. They may stumble
a little early, intimidating big house. I think they pull
(15:47):
away late a little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio
State last couple of years. Physicality leaned on him late
third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team,
the better roster, the better chance of the National Championship
is Texas. I like the horns here by about six.
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Speaker 1 (17:38):
All right, it's time for another season of Sharp or Square.
After quite a sabbatical, I am now working again on
almost a full time basis. Chad Milman, C COO of
the Action Network. The Favorites, by the way, I have
one thousand dollars pick them contests free to play. We'll
get to that later.
Speaker 4 (17:57):
All the one hundred thousandd thousand, Man, we're giving away
one hundred thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
Wow, thousand, one hundreds.
Speaker 4 (18:06):
We don't do a thousand On the Volume podcast network.
We're big time.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
All of our odds provided by DraftKings. I spent a
lot of time this summer in uh, you know, in
a place out east, Yes, very close to where you live.
I played a lot of golf and during that time
a lot of time to think about odds. And I
almost did not do a first week of this. And
(18:35):
my take has been, the world's changed. All these sharps
pick at these line one odds. I have all summer
to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is
a terrible week to bet. And then I look at
the numbers this week and I'm like, they may not
be the best, but i got a couple I like
(18:56):
and I'm gonna start with one of them that I'm
being warned about. Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo.
I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the
end of last year. I think the last couple of
drafts they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray.
I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for He's like
(19:18):
nobody else in the league. He's like to me, he's
a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and
Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and
a half is not only the play. I think they
could win Sharper square.
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Ish like of all the games they just I'm with you, brother, like,
I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in Week one.
Arizona is a team. I'm not gonna lie to you.
Wise guys love they think that in the NFC West.
They love Seattle, they love Mike McDonald as a coach.
(19:56):
They are really bullish on Arizona. This number action clicked down,
got down to six. It was much higher even during
the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I
think there was some over exuberance on the Cardinals. And
don't forget this is the kind of game that the
Bills historically not just cover, but dominate, right, And so
(20:20):
there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters.
They are going to lean towards underdogs in Week one
and that's going to be a theme for everything we're
talking about. And I've got a lot of numbers to
back it up for folks, But this one is trickier.
I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it
goes back down to six, probably, No, don't forget six
(20:41):
has become a lot more of a key number with
extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't
give you a definitive. I can say, if I got
to play a side, I'm playing Arizona, but I don't
think it's blazon by any means.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit
out here.
Speaker 2 (21:00):
Goodlet's warm up.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
Let's just warm up.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
The one I really like is Carolina plus three and
a half of the Saints. I think New Orleans is
poorly quarterbacked and poorly coached. I think they'll be the
first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina
massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver
unit last year, worse than the league next to New England,
they've actually upgraded. So starters are now backups, and it's like, oh,
(21:25):
mingo can be a three or a four, not a
one or two. I look at Carolina, I'd go money line.
I think they win this game straight out.
Speaker 4 (21:32):
Sharper square, dude, you are insu knife sharp right now.
That is you have gone from kind of meh mid
as the kids like to say, to full on super sharp.
Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network
we have been hammering all off season. We have been
(21:54):
hammering their season win total over that jumped up from
four and a half to five and a half. We
have been having hammering their odds to win the division.
Everything about this team last year, and you and I
talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do
this thing called luck rankings, So it basically takes all
of the randomness of football and puts it into a
(22:14):
formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year,
the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in
the NFL that is always bound to regress. In sort
of very analytic terms, they won about a game and
a half less than they should have based on the
stats and the randomness of games. So now all of
(22:36):
a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right, They've got
a couple of new guards, They've improved at receiver, They've
improved their coaching. Let's be very clear, Dave Canalis the
new head coach, he was the head coach. He was
the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from journeyman
to pro bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay
when Baker Mayfield went from journeyman to leading the team
(22:59):
to the playoffs. Now, all of a sudden, he's got
Bryce Young, who there's a lot of negativity about. That's
why this line is so inflated. This line was at
four and a half. It's gone down to four because
wise guys are betting it. And you cited about the Saints.
There was a survey before the seat, before we got
the preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about
their team. It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has
(23:22):
the shortest odds to be fired first Dennis Allen, who
is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now Derek Carr.
Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in their respective positions as
head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against
the spread of any grouping for the past twenty years.
(23:42):
They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis
Allen is historically bad as a head coach with the
minimum seventy games, which is what he has. So you
are spot on one stat for you NFL Division underdogs
in Week one since twenty fourteen. So the Panthers as
underdogs to the Saints seventy one percent against the spread,
(24:04):
not only that they covered the spread by an average
of five points per game, which largely says I agree
with you. He could take a little bit of a
taste and I never mind this like a quarter unit
on the underdog to win outright, all.
Speaker 1 (24:18):
Right, whether concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus
three and a half at the bucks. I think Tampa
has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go
watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are.
Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn
was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator.
(24:40):
I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that
hired him, Steve Kin. He said, Cliff is great. He said,
I don't know if he's an NFL head coach, the
discipline is an issue, but as an NFL coordinator or
a college coach, he said, I would back him forever.
This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's
personnel's find Tampa's guessing. I think they pull back as
(25:02):
a team. This year, Tampa. I'm going to take Commanders
plus three and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
Yeah, it's sharp. I mean it's not the favorite. Like
if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend.
This is probably seventh or eighth. Right, I will be
playing the Commanders. But this team right now, I just
talked about the luck rankings the Buccaneers and you noted
there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst
the luckiest teams in the NFL last year and the
(25:30):
Commanders were one of the ten most unlucky. So just
the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think
in a higher than it should be point spread because
of perception. Right, the Commander's number two, number three overall.
Pick the Buccaneers. They made the playoffs, they had a
good run. They have lost important aspects of that team,
specifically Dave knallis Baker fourteen and twenty six in his
(25:55):
career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take
the command So the wise guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (26:04):
An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the
opening week, and I think Bo Nicks and Sean Payton
are going to be excellent together compared to what the
market predicts. I think they're a seven win team, not
a four win team. Do not like him here rookies
starting Week one on the road against a very sharp
maybe the next Demko Ryan's defensive coach Seattle. I like
(26:28):
Pete Carroll last two years they underwhelmed. They have better talent.
I mean offensively, it's Noah's Ark, two receivers, two tight ends,
two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think
Seattle minus six is to play. This is a rough spot,
and I like Bonnicks. This is a rough opening week.
I take Seattle minus six.
Speaker 4 (26:48):
Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks
on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks
on the road average eighteen point per game the past
ten years. It is not a good spot. There is
a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald's. They
(27:10):
loved the game plans he put together when he was
the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much
better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing
here is just a little bit of a difference in
talent on the roster. Historically wise guys, they don't like
to bet against Sean Payton, like Sean Payton is their
(27:30):
favorite coach, right along with Mike Tomlin. But Mike McDonald's
in the spot like they look at him not as
a rookie head coach, and a lot of ways the
way that people looked at Demiko Rans last year. They
got a lot of faith in what he can do.
So whise, guys, you're with you.
Speaker 1 (27:43):
I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half
against the Niners. It's a noisy game the Baggage Bowl.
But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do
worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they lost
huff to the Eagles, but I don't worry too much
about pass rush. I don't like the Niners offensive line,
(28:04):
especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels
like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win,
but god, I don't get the line at all. I
would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper.
Speaker 4 (28:18):
Square, totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this colin
is since Trent Williams signed, the line has moved a
full point from three and a half to four and
a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public
betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this
(28:39):
line and Whilse guys are happy to take to four
and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to
the forty nine ers, that's the weakness of their team, right,
And even with Trump Williams, who is probably the best
left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask
that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in
the way he can move the ball around that they're
(28:59):
able to get away with having an offensive line that
is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of
the best defensive lines in the NFL, and I agree
with you about Hassan Raddick. The guy hasn't played for
the Jets at all, so they don't really know what
they're missing. And obviously Bryce hoff being gone is an impact.
But they have a stout defensive line. They will find
(29:21):
a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line.
The wise guys love love the Jets in this spot.
Speaker 1 (29:30):
Okay, finally a game I missed. I am betting you
it's Colts plus the points I know it's the Colt
plus the point is it, of course it is.
Speaker 4 (29:39):
I n yeah, it's one hundred percent the Colts plus
I think you can get them plus three some places
plus three and a half. Now this line was two
and a half forty eight hours ago. The public is
steaming in on the Texans, and the wise guys are
buying on the Colts, and look, it's a little tricky
(30:02):
Anthony and Richardson has basically played like seventeen games at
quarterback since high school, right, and then you got the
Texans who look like they are all world. But I
do want to give some context here. The Texans do
not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured.
The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew playing
(30:26):
the majority of the games last season. I think Shane
Steiken is a genius of the coach and what he
did with Minshew and what he was starting to do
with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level
of play that the Eagles had last year on offense
and what you saw from the Colts is a direct
correlation between Shane Steiken being an Indie and not being
(30:48):
with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there
also to repeat division underdogs thirty seven to fifteen and
one against the spread in week one since twenty fourteen seventy.
This is a really good spot for the Colts against
a overvalued Texans team.
Speaker 1 (31:08):
I want you to just give my audience something here,
just just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So
I think the Rams the last two years, last year
and this year are undervalued. But their old line is
a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVeagh and
Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense
(31:31):
feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot.
I don't like their old line Hutchison had, according to
you know, all the Lion news. They're like, he's now
the best defensive rush end in the league. He's just
tearing it up. I look at this line, I think
McVeigh Stafford plus three and a half. But there's something
(31:52):
that tells me, stay away, educate me.
Speaker 4 (31:57):
Your instincts are spot on. And this was the artist game.
The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's
called our Big Balls Bet of the Week, and it's
the bet We know it's hard to make, but you
one hundred percent have to have the courage to make it.
This week it is the Detroit Lions minus three and
(32:19):
a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes
to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've
given you all these trends. But here's the thing about
these trends. Fifty eight percent sixty one percent, What that
really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an
edge if you bet at long term. What I'm trying
to do here is thread the needle and catch a
(32:40):
falling knife where the other forty percent of the time, right,
it doesn't work right, right? And so look, I love
the Rams and we have made so much money on
the Rams the past couple of years because I do
think Matthew Stafford is probably the most, if it's possible,
the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the cover
(33:00):
of Top three, top four, and he should. If there
was a great video this fall this offseason of CJ.
Shaud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch, it was
Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer.
And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was
out and turned Puka Nakua into an all world receiver.
He is brilliant and I really want to bet the Rams,
(33:23):
but here's the problem, and I want to fade the
Lions because the variant is so high when you're betting
on a Dan Campbell team, because of the way he
goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you,
as it did in the NFC title game. And when
the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good. And
when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet,
(33:44):
they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line,
they look at the defensive line. That's where they start.
They don't start on the edges, they don't start with
the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of
a few teams with top five offensive line top five
defensive line pines on one side. Then you mentioned Aiden Hutchinson.
I bet Ada Hutchinson fourteen to one to leave the
(34:05):
league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how
this guy has gotten better and better. And last year
he was dominant no matter what this situation was, no
matter how often he was being double team he consistently
got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.
So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait
a second. Aaron Donald retired offensive line for the Rams
(34:27):
in trouble. Jared Goff undefeated against the spread to start
the season in his career, Jared Goff twenty five to
nine against the spread in doors. Jared Goff the most
profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan
Campbell the most profitable coach against the spread the past
(34:49):
five years. I know, like it's hard to bet on
a more than a field goal favorite in a game
that ended as a very short win for the line
last year in the playoffs, I think the lines have
gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a
little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent
isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines.
Speaker 1 (35:22):
So one of the things John that really jumped out
to me, and I said this to start my rant,
is that unlike the NFL, these are young kids, practice limitations,
no preseason. I would be completely okay to watch a
sloppy first half. I thought USC six penalties, great situational
football in the red zone, very good two minute drives,
(35:44):
handled timeouts well, no turnovers again, very few penalties, two
freshmen on the offensive line, no real breakdowns. Alignments were great.
I thought USC more than anything. I thought they looked tight,
really buttoned up John the whole off. It's his freshman
and sophomores. I thought they looked great.
Speaker 2 (36:03):
Colin, you get to take a victory lap for the
next seven days, loud and clear pound that table. To me,
two things really stood out first and foremost the size
of the defenders. I would say over the last decade
they felt small. They've had a guy or two here
on defense, but for the most part, they've had too
(36:24):
many guys that look like me, you know, in the
Pete Carroll Heyday and all these SEC teams. The visual
they showed of the transformation of the body types during
the game, I mean guys going from two thirty to
two sixty in an offseason was evident. Because the LSU
team has they got a top fifteen tackle, they got
another guy who's pretty raw, who's going to go in
(36:45):
the top thirty. The wide receiver, the number two looks
like an NFL guy. I mean, they had NFL guys
everywhere USC tackled physically, they didn't get shoved around. And
I think what really changed is the last two years
with Caleb and rightfully so they wrote him like he
was Steph Curry or Lebron James. Yeah, it was kind
of like an individual, not a team, and it worked
(37:06):
two years ago. Last year at Backfire because the defense
was totally terrible, didn't they feel like a team? Didn't
they just feel like a group of guys that there
wasn't one necessity. I mean everyone was making place that
they felt like a total unit. And listen, you were
hammering this. I didn't believe Miller. Moss clearly's pretty good.
He's definitely tough, and Lincoln had the boys ready and
(37:28):
they they could have folded there in the second half,
and it was LSU that folded in. This why Brian
Kelly kind of snapped after the game.
Speaker 1 (37:35):
So the Big Ten went seventeen and one. And this
is something I thought about Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC,
especially Texas and the way they can recruit that state.
It makes it a better conference. But adding Washington, Oregon
and USC to the Big Ten is not a slight upgrade.
(37:57):
I could argue that after Ohio State, now that Harva
is gone, after Ohio State. If I said the next
five years, the second, third, fourth, and fifth best teams
in the Big Ten were Oregon, USC, Michigan, Washington. Like,
I don't think it's crazy to suggest that adding three
(38:19):
of the best four programs in the conference, if Utah
always counts, I think in that foursome, but with the
right coach USC, Oregon, Washington, those are playoff teams every
time Washington's had a good coach, Don James, Rick Neuheisel,
Chris Peterson, Kaitlin de boor they vy for a national championship.
(38:39):
So it's like, I don't think people understand it's Texas
Oklahoma make the SEC thicker. You added three on any
given year top twelve programs to the Big Ten, may
it be a better overall conference?
Speaker 2 (38:55):
Now, I think over the course of time, I think
this year there's gonna be a lot of reaction to
to the SEC. Their quarterback play, Colin, I mean, I'm
gonna give Oregon a little bit of a pass. I
mean that game was really weird. They played boys. They
played boys. This week, they better kick their ass and
kind of get after it because that was that was bizarre.
The quarterback play. I didn't know that much about him.
(39:16):
I'm sure you heard his name, the Nico kid from
Los Angeles. That's Tennessee's quarterback. I got loose for you.
That guy's pretty special. Jackson dart Ole, Miss. They're pretty
good obviously, the two quarterbacks. The quarterback Dylan Gabriels at
Oregon because they told him, you're not going to start.
Jackson Arnold's gonna start. He's pretty good too. Their high
end teams with their quarterbacks are pretty obviously Carson Beck
(39:39):
and Georgia. Over the course of time. I think, you know,
USC is only going to get better if they keep
looking like this over the next two or three years.
Oregon's not going anywhere. But I got a lot of
question marks about Wisconsin, about Minnesota, like the four or five,
six seven group. Penn State you feel pretty good at
Penn State could be a major problem. I was texting
(40:01):
scouts all week and long. I mean, they're front sevens
full of NFL guys, and if that quarterback takes a
big step, that game got like delayed for twenty five hours.
But they could be a serious factor, I mean a
serious factor this year. So I think the high end
of the Big ten in the sec. It's pretty clear
that though Miami, I would still kind of red flag
(40:21):
the quarterback and be up and down. But they're pretty talented.
Speaker 1 (40:24):
So I think that Tom Brady situation's fascinating. I had
people asking me in the airport about this. I went
golfing and I had a couple of people ask me
about the story that he's going to be. You know,
he's trying to be a raider's owner, and if you're
a raider's owner, there are limitations on what you can
do in the NFL.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
And had you heard about that? Had you heard about
that before like in the Halls.
Speaker 1 (40:41):
House, No, and so, And it's one of those things
that that's above my pay grade. That's management. But so
for people that don't know, he can't criticize officials, he
can't be in certain meetings, production meetings. I don't think
the production meetings is a big deal. I think have
you been watching this stuff? That Brady is allowing people
(41:01):
to see the binders he has from every single season,
everybody he ever faced. His preparation is even compared to
people who spend a lot of time preparing, is literally
next level. And he just got off the field. I
don't worry about any of that. The only part of
it that concerns me, and it only may happen once
(41:21):
every two weeks, eight times a year that you may
have to call the officials and go, that's a blown call.
Now replay helps reverse a lot of miscalls. So again,
it's not the seventies eighties. But when I read all
the stuff, I thought, do you view it as credibility
(41:42):
dinged if he can't rip officials? And I'm not saying rip,
but be question officiating.
Speaker 2 (41:48):
Listen. I like my announcers. I think once everyone started
getting on Romo, Troyikman kind of got a swag back
and he'll light into somebody and I like that. Now
some people may be like more rosier. But here's the
one thing, there's twenty thirty million people watching this game.
When stuff screwed up. Now, at football, you have a
pretty good idea, and people don't like to hear rose
(42:10):
colored glasses when stuff's pretty obvious. I thought, it's not
only officials. This isn't like certain things like with teams.
To me, the restrictions that I read feel like god
part of my big question mark with Tom because turn
him on your show. He's he's awesome. I mean his
ability to speak complicated stuff, but I was like, let
his true personality come out. That he's known as a
(42:32):
great teammate. Part of that is being one of the
guys obviously ribbing some people. I think that's pretty difficult.
It will not be difficult for him to get the
coaches and the players on the phone, right, that's call
him back.
Speaker 1 (42:44):
That doesn't feel like a deal, That doesn't matter at all.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
That's Peyton talks about that sometimes. On Monday night. I
talked to Sean McVeigh on his drive home. They can
go to him and Peyton get anybody on the phone
in the NFL in five minutes. I do think him
not being able to do that. If that's really serious,
can you argue and listen. I'm as pro capitalism as anybody,
but this feels like it's going to be pretty tough
if you one day. Actually, he's just never allowed to
(43:08):
do that. It is pretty difficult to do your job
if there are legit restrictions. Because it's easy this year,
but what about five years from now when you have
some coaches you know nothing about. Those production meetings do
hold some value, right, Y's one thing I'm not saying
to like divest from the Raiders, because that's pretty good
investment invested in the NFL, but it feels pretty difficult.
Fox has given them almost four hundred million dollars.
Speaker 1 (43:29):
Yeah, and again, I rent all the restrictions and listen.
I'm I'm a corporate opinionist, so essentially, I have strong
opinions for companies ESPN and Fox that have rights with everybody.
And my take has always been I can say pretty
much everything and anything, but I don't make it personal.
(43:49):
I'm not going to go after Roger Goodell personally or
Adam Silver, even now that we don't have the NBA.
I try to be fair with people, even when I'm
critical of people, like for a year, even with Baker Mayfield.
I've said he is a top twenty quarterback. I think
he's a great guy. He and Emily are wonderful people.
(44:10):
I root for the guy. I thought he was immature
when he came into the league. So I try to
qualify stuff I don't want to. I don't want to
be a sledgehammer. I don't want to be an anvil
because I'm in these relationships too. I see these commissioners,
I see these coaches. I don't want to be a jerk.
I want to be somewhat respected as a generalist or
an opinionist. But the one that did jump out to
me was the officiating because, and again Tom's such a
(44:34):
prep monster. I don't worry about the other stuff, but
that one I think. I think what it would be.
It wouldn't affect him, but it would mean a lot
of bad press for him and Fox, and I think
corporations don't like that the volume. Thanks so much for listening.
If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate and
(44:56):
review
Host
Colin Cowherd
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