Colin’s top takes of the week!
He starts with the Detroit Lions beating the LA Rams on SNF football and why the Rams still have a Super Bowl window with Matt Stafford at quarterback (4:00). THe also recaps the 49ers beatdown of the Jets on Monday Night Football and why the Jets lack the juice to compete with the AFC’s best (9:30).
Then, he’s joined by John Middlekauff, host of “3 and Out” to discuss the absolute disaster that DeShaun Watson has become for the Browns (23:30), Caleb Williams struggling in his debut (26:30) and why the Seahawks could be flying unde the radar (34:30).
Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice week two of the NFL season!
44:00 - Raiders vs. Ravens
46:00 - 49ers vs. Vikings
48:30 - Jets vs. Titans
52:00 - Broncos vs. Steelers
55:00 - Lions vs. Bucs
58:00 - Cowboys vs. Saints
59:00 - Packers vs. Colts
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.
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(01:09):
let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games
are insane. I mean you had over seven hundred yards
of offense tonight, over five hundred passing yards between the
Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff about
five and a half yards of play if you avered
(01:30):
the two teams. Let's see forty six first downs and
no fumbles. Each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession
was even. First of all, Sean McVay and Matt Stafford
and Cooper Cup. No Puka Nakua, he got hurt. Both
your offensive tackles are out makeshift offensive line to go
(01:52):
into Detroit Sunday night football against the super Bowl level
team in Detroit, and really I thought they had the
game one and regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper
Cup and Sean McVay, who's a rock star. And in
the end though I felt like Detroit when it went
to overtime, I'm like, Okay, now it's Detroit's game. The
Rams look tired sometimes at Chris Collinsworth made a great point,
(02:17):
you're not really built in week one to go to
overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just
only so much. I don't know who. I don't have
the betting lines next week, but I mean the Rams
and the Lions. They if they were a little off
next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is
the Rams. I mean, I wrote these numbers down. At
one point they had a twenty eight to twelve first
down advantage on the road, four hundred yards, three hundred
(02:41):
passing yard, dominating time of possession, and a seventy eight
to forty five total play advantage at one point in
this game. But credit a very deep, now experienced Lions team,
like they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay
is still young, the Rams are actually pretty young. San
Francisco is older, but the Detroit's got a veteran club
here and now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson
(03:03):
and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a
team like the Rams gave it everything they had, but
they they looked really shot in overtime, and to the
Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them.
They didn't f around at all. They went right at
the Rams interior D line and it worked. I think
(03:24):
one of the things I'm always taken by is how
good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good.
But I've said this before, if Matt Stafford and the Rams.
And remember what you saw from the Rams Night's impressive.
Poka Nakool will be back, They'll have both their offensive tackles,
their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be
a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side.
(03:44):
I mean they got two rookies starting on that defensive front.
Give those guys twelve to fifteen games. This Ram team
by the end of the year, you don't want any
part of This is a really good team. The difference
is the Lions are supposed to be good now and
they got out played for big chunks of this football game.
One of the things I worry about with the Lions
is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth,
so they got to keep amor On Saint Brown healthy.
(04:09):
They don't have a lot of depth there, and the
Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're
a better team in the back end. Rams, and maybe
it's just the Rams Cooper Cup can do that. Rams
kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that
football game. Again, the Rams had a seventy eight to
forty five play advantage at one point, and we're dominating
time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit
(04:30):
I didn't think played particularly well in the second half
and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant.
A heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on
the road, a great team on Sunday night football, and
you lose, that's a long flight back to LA But
I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams,
two teams that could meet again in the NFC Championship.
Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Would not be surprised
(04:53):
in the least. You know the other thing, the Rams,
and I wouldn't call this a problem. It's fascinating. So
there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up
last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford?
Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight.
He went thirty four for forty nine for three hundred
(05:13):
and seventeen yards and a touchdown, the pass rush in
his face. In the second half, he went eighteen to
twenty three for two hundred yards, and again he's under dress.
Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket, And I'm sitting
there watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the
Rams for the next couple of years, in the draft,
why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are
(05:36):
you going to get in the draft that's as good
as this guy. I know he's older, but when I
watched him tonight on the road pass rush, I mean,
it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higbee his
top tight end. He's banged up, he didn't have Pooka Nakua,
he didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic.
(05:56):
You're not going to face many pass rushes, certainly tonight.
You're not going to face many environments in this league
harder than that. And this guy's eighteen for twenty three
in the second half. So you know, I was sitting
as I watched the game, and I'm thinking, what I mean, move.
He's never been a big mover. He moves well enough
in the pocket, his arm's great. I mean, he's clearly
(06:19):
going a thousand miles an hour cognitively. Upstairs, he's got
an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. Now
they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in
Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off.
I think he was in Tampa at one point. He
had a huge play tonight. And I'm just saying, I'm
looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young.
(06:42):
Stafford's the old guy.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
If I draft a quarterback and find the Rams, I
would definitely draft to tackle. Robin Havenstein died in play
the night right tackle he's getting up there, and I
would get another wide receiver. But I mean, last year,
five of their six top picks or defense, so there's
no reason you know they they are close. I think
they could get to the super Bowl. I don't know
if they as good as Kansas City. I don't know
(07:05):
if there's good as Baltimore. I don't know, but they're
certainly in a group of four or five teams that
could get there, five or six teams maybe. So I
just you're watching Stafford. I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't
look close to retirement. He didn't look close. Only one
team in the AFC East did not win, the New
(07:27):
York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing, and I
understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one
year the Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball
at will on the Steelers defense. It was a complete blowout.
You know, you face the Andy Reids and you're you know,
I mean, look at what Sean mcvayh and Stafford did
(07:47):
in a losing effort, missing multiple starters Like these offensive
coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak
looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face.
But I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was
on the field was thirty eight minutes to nineteen. That's embarrassing.
That's what Will Levice would produce. The first downs when
(08:08):
Aaron was on the field, Jets had a twenty five
to eleven deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense.
This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime
off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you
can trust and Bresall I thought the old line was fine.
Aaron only sacked one time. They were fine that this
(08:32):
wasn't Aaron Rodgers running for his life. You know, let's
just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not
in his prime. He's not as big, strong an athletic
as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He's not
as he doesn't move like a Kyler, Murray Lamar or
Patrick Mahomes. And I watched them tonight and I think
we have overvalued how good Aaron Rodgers is now. It's
(08:53):
going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They
faced Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Kobe Brissett
in New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the
Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really
good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the
Jets defense is not going to face this team. But
(09:15):
I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws
a really pretty ball. Esthetically, it's fun to watch. It's
like that first big drive was great, but the only
other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when
the Niners' safeties were playing catch up because they paused.
Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL.
(09:38):
There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go
into detail, but I always feel like He loves the
free ball because even if he throws a pick, it
doesn't count. So he gets really hyper aggressive on the
free ball and more aggressive than he is normally. Loves
to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's
reluctant to do in my opinion, in other parts of
the game. So I just I look at that offense
(10:00):
and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine,
but it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend
plays like he used to. You know, they've got one receiver,
I like, Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the
first half. The tight ends are irrelevant, and Breese Hall's good.
But this is not a high powered offense. You've got
(10:21):
a defensive head coach, a quarterback passed his prime, and
Nt Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up.
Miami's offense is going to be better all year because
of Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's
the third best offense in their division. Let's be totally.
It's not a Houston, it's not Kansas City. I don't
think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on
this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So and that's
(10:44):
just it's not the Rams or the Niners. On the
other side, I don't think it's the Lions. I don't
think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense.
It's not Dallas. After week one, you know it's not
a top ten offense. So you're going to have to
rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to
the defense. They got pushed around Jesus Jordan Mason. They
had one hundred and eighty yards rushing. I mean, they
(11:07):
had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to. Now,
again it's Shanahan, it's the opener, but the San Francisco
forty nine Ers offensive line is the weakness of the team,
and with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp,
that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring.
I thought this was going to be played between the thirties.
(11:27):
I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up
chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean,
it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to.
It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could
run it with Deebo or Jordan Mason. It was Kittle,
it was Ayuk, I mean he dropped a touchdown. They
did whatever they wanted to for most of this game.
(11:49):
And again now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nicks.
It's not the same. I mean the Jets defense. In fact,
you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped
the following week because the Niners are so physical. I
think the Jets coming back were kind of physically humiliated
in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think
it would.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Look like that.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
I didn't think it would look like that. I thought
this thing had twenty three twenty written all over it.
I cannot believe what the Niners offensive line did. It
was chunk plays six eight eleven, six eight eleven.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
It was easy.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
It was just and they weren't doing a lot of tricks,
you know. I mean, the Rams and the Niners use
a lot of motion. I never felt Miami does as well.
I didn't feel it was terribly deceptive tonight. I didn't think.
I thought the Niners just kind of rare back, ran
to the perimeter and did whatever they wanted to outside
the tackles. It was easy stuff. Brock pretty I mean,
(12:42):
he wasn't squeezing the ball into tight windows. Jennings Debo
people were open. So this wasn't a very resilient effort
by the Jets. I take copious notes. You know, one
point twenty three to seven, Aaron gets picked. That's twenty
six to seven the free play. But you know Aaron's
(13:03):
a master at that. I guess the best news for
the Jets the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably.
But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to
point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would
be great tonight, flying cross country BOSA against an old
(13:25):
Tyron Smith, Like I thought it would be choppy. The
Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Reddick's absence.
That was a weak effort. That was a non competitive effort.
Jesus thirty eight to nineteen minutes time of possession when
Aaron Rodgers were on the field. That's an ass kicking.
That's like, you're not competitive, You're not extending drives at all.
(13:48):
I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it
without Christian McCaffrey, who is the engine to this offense.
One hundred and eighty plus rushing yards, but no Christian
McCaffrey wide open receivers twenty five to eleven first down
edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm I'm
I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had
(14:09):
eight straight scoring drives. I you can Trent Williams held
out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives. That's
like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean,
it's Week one. It's not like you have a litany
of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives like Robert Salah that
(14:30):
that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is this
is your culture, this is your team. I mean, would
you have guessed that, I mean McCatty once you heard
McCaffrey wasn't gonna play. If I said to you, they'll
score in eight straight scoring drives, you would have said, oh,
come on, you're an Aaron Rodgers hater. That's bad. TD
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Speaker 2 (16:21):
All Right, Former NFL Scout three and out podcaster John
Middelkoff of the Volume Week one reaction presented by Uber
Eats get almost almost anything for Game Day. All right,
let's start with Tom Brady's debut. Good God, Cleveland a disaster.
You know, I was sitting there thinking as I'm watching
that game, if you're going to sign a contract to
(16:41):
a quarterback, to a guaranteed contract, which you you know
Kirk Cousins got one and and DeShawn Watson. I not
only want a great player, I want a great leader.
I want great health, I want an ascending player. He's
virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland.
What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better
(17:01):
quarterback today, John than Deshaun Watson. I mean, Baker was
a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like,
we know it's not Stefanski. We know he's a really
bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I
don't even know what Deshaun Watson is. I mean changing uniforms.
He's a bottom ten quarterback.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
You know.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
As funny as I had on the Redskins or the
Commander's game on a little TV and I wrote down
about ten minutes before we jumped on, Baker's in a
different universe. Not just as a thrower, his touch, I
mean Deshaun's throwing balls into the stands constantly, but his swag,
the way he carries himself, the way his teammates, and
(17:42):
even as a playmaker. I mean it's not like Baker's
some elite athlete, but moving around. Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott
signed the same contract, essentially two hundred and thirty million
dollars guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has
character question marks and who has a short resume. I mean,
I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has
to go down immediately as one of the worst deals
(18:04):
in the history of pro sports. You look at Dak
has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player,
super smart guy, yeah, high character leader. Everyone that knows
him like him. Deshaun Watson. I was out on him
last year. Today, what an embarrassment? Where's the playmaking? Colin?
He doesn't make any play well.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
And he was never a hyper athletic or he was
never a hyper accurate thrower. That was always the beat
on him. I can remember his first year, everybody liked him.
He would skip throws. He's not a pretty thrower, he's
not an easy thrower. Everything looks like it's a struggle downfield.
You know, he was a wildly dynamic athlete. You take
(18:45):
that out and I mean, he's no more athletic today
than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of
a b athlete and a b arm But I was
watching Daxon and I'm like, oh, Dak's a much much
better player than Deshaun Watson. And the thing about Dak,
Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults,
you do feel like he is the soul of the organization.
(19:07):
He's the soul for sure. Deshaun Watson, if you went
through that locker room and a half the guy asked
half the guys and you go, you could move off
the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think
desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You
can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I
want to talk about the Bears game. First of all,
(19:29):
the fact that they won a game and passed for
sixty four yards, so it was interesting. Belichick said something
last week. I took the Titans to win that game,
and basically I was on the right side. I felt
for almost the entire game. But Belichick said something this
week and I took it to heart. Belichick said, I
wasn't impressed. He was like ten for twenty. And I
(19:51):
went back and I text somebody who is I know
who's in the NFL who's been critical of him. And
the big question with Caleb is high school. In college,
he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy,
he can really get into the high grass. And if
you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in
(20:11):
his first three years and then Andy would pull him
back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done
that in his career where it's so easy for Mahomes
and Stafford they start side arming two out of three throws,
the mechanics get sloppy, and I thought with Caleb, he's
got a defensive coach, So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at
(20:33):
one point had an offensive coordinator he really connected with.
Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is
when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on
the fairway? Because I thought today he struggled at times
to see things. You know, I thought his decision making
late in the game and not making mistakes and taking
(20:54):
what was given for him was fine. But I mean
all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good
as any bud and he threw two picks. What did
you make of Caleb overall today?
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Well, I think if you go back to Bill's comments,
He's like, listen, I'm not being a hater, but I
don't put anything in the preseason. And when you're inaccurate
in the preseason. Do you know what hit me today?
Watching about ten games in the morning on different TVs
and screens. You know how the NBA. Once the playoffs start,
You're like, what we just witnessed for the last six
months doesn't even look like the same sport. That's kind
of the preseason. I mean, the first ten minutes of
(21:28):
like ten am to like ten thirty, You're watching the
Steeler game, the Houston Indie game. Guys are flying around.
I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right, So,
the defensive game plans. All these defensive coordinators, even the
average ones, are making one and a half two million dollars.
They're paid a lot of money to do this. The
physicality of the game rams up the question on Caleb
(21:50):
he is going to be able to make spectacular throws
though he wasn't doing that today. He was I think
he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot.
But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket,
whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw.
And it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on
him fast. Now. The tight Jeffrey Simmons is probably one
of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know
(22:10):
that much about because he plays for the Titans. You
put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something.
He'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass
hard and he was he was thrown off and will
Levis bailed their team out. Because if will Levis does
n't self implode, the Titans not only easily should have covered,
they should win the game. I mean, he looked like
Daniel Jones there, but Caleb was He was atrocious today.
(22:32):
I mean he really was, which is fair because this
is what Bill and Bill's an old school guy, Sean Payton's,
all these guys that come from the eighties, the nineties,
the Bill Parcells. They hate hype, you know you and
I like some hype, Yeah, I enjoy it. Those guys
do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once
you kick off week one, and all that hype was
(22:52):
meaningless today if on third and seven he's skipping a
ball and he was, and it unraveled fast. The arm strength,
all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said,
it gets back to Jayden Daniels. Beside his running didn't
look great. Bo Nicks, who has an offensive play caller now,
he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot
of the time. Yeah, it's hard. This is really really.
(23:14):
This is why I've said pump the breaks, especially on
Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright
picked him to win the Super Bowl. A lot of
people are hot, you know, he threw that out. I
don't know if he actually picked. But my point is
he could make serious strides as the year goes on
and they could win seven games. This is really Look
at Sam Darnolly, He's been the league for like seven years.
Has taken him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no,
(23:35):
it's not easy.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
No, I said this. I did a piece for Fox
Sunday and I said, be careful on Caleb Williams. This
is one of the best divisions. This is a franchise
that ran Trubisky out of town and he made the
playoffs twice with Aaron Rodgers and Stafford in their prime.
This media is rough, the weather gets rough by Thanksgiving.
(23:58):
If they win eight games and he gets better, take it.
If you could take that today and say he's significantly better,
we win at games we finished third, take it, because
what success looks like to Dak is not what success
looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew
up the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now,
(24:18):
that's still really hard. Yeah, it's still really hard. But
quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a
run centric league. It's a sixty forty sixty two to
thirty eight passing league. And I mean it's even Gino Smith,
a veteran today his best play was a run. Like
(24:40):
this stuff is hard, and I think we just have
to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I
thought bow Nicks had a little rhythm at one point
in the game where he felt like I felt like
bow seeing the game. It wasn't doing much, but he
was seeing the game, he was seeing the field, and
he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all
(25:02):
twenty four points today were scored by defense and special teams.
Will Levis to me, is done. He's baked. I don't
think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't
see the field. Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to
be fine, But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And
I think the other thing is if you opened up
(25:23):
on the road, it's different, dude. He opened up in Chicago.
The weather was perfect, that a buddy at the game,
like there was a lot of fricking heat on Caleb today,
Like a.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Lot of pressure on Caleb. Well, that's where if you
you know, if you take bo Nicks, you take Caleb.
Bo Nix is in Seattle where the place is really
loud and he can barely hear himself. Think Caleb gets
a pretty BP fastball of twelve o'clock kickoff in Chicago.
I'm a huge believer in two things. For young people,
whether you're a professional athlete or just a normal person
(25:51):
in society, confidence can be lost really quickly, and it
can be hard to gain. I would say, you know
in your early twenties and when you are everyone's looking
at you. When you start losing confidence, it can spiral
and the only thing you ever have to go back
on is your experience. But as a young player, you
don't have any experience. Like Geno today, you're watching early on,
You're like gott Seattle looks weird, he's been through it.
(26:13):
Dak today. All these guys have so much experience that
they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak
out over a bad quarter. And you just watched Caleb.
You just felt it snowballing, and what does he have
to go back on?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Right?
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Nothing? And it's not like he can look over there
and Bill Walsh's on the sideline and be like, listen,
I've been doing this for thirty years, won a couple
Super Bowls. I'm gonna call three plays, get you a
couple of layups. And they were just they were very scattered. Yes,
they felt very I mean there was one point in
time in that game before Will Levis just pooped down
(26:46):
his own leg where You're like, are they gonna lose
twenty eight to ten? Yeah, and just be the number
one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears
and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think,
because that I really think that you can defensive turnovers,
like if they're playing a top, if they're playing just
(27:07):
Baker Mayfield or Ge they have blown out, they get killed.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
Yeah, So I mean they get killed.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And I'm not jumping on Caleb here, which I would
imagine is going to happen a lot this week. I
just think everyone this is so much more difficult at
the NFL level than college, even if you're playing at
a high level of college and Caleb was playing a
lot of good teams in college. But the level of athlete,
the level of speed, he just did the rhythm. I mean,
(27:34):
it was just it was glaring.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I want to talk about the Broncos and Seahawks, because
again I thought Bo had his moments. I'm watching Seattle
and I say this respectively to Pete Carroll. I think
Seattle has elite talent. I just don't think people know
the players. But Walker, they're wide receivers. They have tremendous
(27:58):
young corners they got to consider to pass rush. They
got the Murphy kid in the draft, the top defensive tackle.
A fan left today. It's Gino is what he is, like,
he's a really solid he's a great story. He is
what he is. He's not gonna lose you a lot
of games. He's not gonna win you a lot of games.
But I'm watching that game today and Sean Payton coached
his ass off for a half. He got them. I
(28:20):
mean a lot of this was Seattle do it getting safeties,
and it was quirky, and then all of a sudden,
by the second half, you're like, Okay, now we're off script,
and now Bo Nicks is a rookie quarterback, and he
just you know, that's the difference between a veteran dak
in the second half and bow Knicks in the second half.
Both's like, Okay, now they adjusted, So I got the
everything on the script. I figured out. Now it's all
off script, and I'm watching that Seattle team. John, But
(28:43):
I think you called him one of the surprise teams.
I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore.
I think they are really talented. They really they fly
around the field defensively.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
I actually was kind of on the other side, well,
their talent. My issue with them is they've been they
were poorly coached, but they've been winning nine games. You know,
it's not like they've been winning five and a good division. Yeah,
that's why I'm fanseled. How do they go from? Do
you think they could win eleven? I still think their
offensive line has some question mark Today safety got punked.
(29:19):
Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker,
there's a chance at the end of the year he's
a top five running back. How about the catch Lockett
made to seal the game. He's their third wide receiver.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
And he's been there Jesus, he's been great for ten years.
Speaker 1 (29:33):
He's got to be one of the more underappreciated players
of his generation. Might not even be close. I think
I could play for my team any day now. If
their defense is better, they still might be a nine
ish win team. But could they beat the forty nine
ers in again, because they haven't beat the forty nine
ers in five games now, Gina, they play him two
years ago in the playoffs now, so they if they
can play at a more physical brand. My question marks
(29:55):
you never know what the coordinator going to a head coach.
He's young. I think he's thirty seven years old. And
their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who
was to bors right him, had never coached in the NFL.
They showed his resume to day. He was a Sioux
Falls not that long ago. It's a pretty quick jump.
Now he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their
coaching staff might just be better. I saw watch John
(30:16):
Schnyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You
can tell he thinks they got something. Not he knows
their team is talented, but like he thinks the coaching
staff's pretty good. So like can they beat McVeigh and Kyle,
can they split? Can they go to and two? Because
if they can, then maybe they're not nine and eight,
they're ten and seven and they're like the six or
seven seed. I would say that's possible. I'm not going
(30:38):
to overreact to playing Denver who. It's just you could
tell they're a little talent devision still with with a
rookie quarterback. But yeah, I mean it's hard not to.
He's an easy guy to root for. G know's an
easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday
night Monday Night games and Tom Brady calling it if
you're both four and one or however the schedule and
(30:58):
you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners, are
you I'm not picking Gino Smith Homer Away?
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Yeah, all right? Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman CEO,
Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I was
a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two and one.
So I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean I
(31:23):
was wrong on the Carolina side, but other than that,
I felt pretty good about it. I could go in
an order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
I am above going in order. I just give you
my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
City Arrowhead, and I think the Chiefs are a better
version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
(31:47):
the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
They beat them at the only game. I think Baltimore's
really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
(32:08):
It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Baltimore's pissed. I'm gonna swallow the eight and a half
Sharper square. So it's square.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
But you're not going to find a ton of guys who,
when they're doing this, are excited about betting the Raiders.
You mentioned Carolina, right, I was on Carolina last week too.
The wise guys will be on Carolina again this week
at six and a half point underdogs, in the same
way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started
at nine and a half got up to ten and
(32:37):
then was bet down to nine and a half, than nine,
and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer
to a number that I think at some point the
wise guys will come back in on Baltimore. But at
this big of a number, they're just betting the number,
And this early in the season, everything tells you that
you are playing against the over reaction. Right, everyone saw
the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a
(32:59):
toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive
game against the Chiefs team that looks like you can
break every rule of betting that exists in the universe. Right,
the Raiders people were high on. They got crushed and
they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Peers
made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the Athletic that
(33:20):
that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory,
it was the first time a coach had been down
in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted
in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls
that has been made in the past eight years. And
you could see him on camera. There's the videos of
him saying should I be going for this right now.
(33:40):
So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the
bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by
the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to
be on the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
good a the Niners. That's very hard to do back
to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
(34:14):
I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
If they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
place team in the history of the league. They've got
a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
he's operating at a different level. This was at six
at one point. I think I take the Vikings five
(34:34):
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half,
they took them at six. They still like the Vikings.
I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
(34:56):
he's also been very good on short weeks on the
road eight and two during his career, one of the
four best coaches in the past five years on short
weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
(35:17):
Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck
for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams
that were excellent in one score games they played each
other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota, Brian
dave Ball wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more
credit as the best coach, right, and Kevin O'Connell had
a similar year and then last year did wonders when
(35:37):
Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Daball's team is cratering
when their top quarterback goes down. Then we see what
happens last week. A bad quarterback for the Giants, a
historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a
Cinderella like first half ten for ten on his first
ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety nine yard touchdown
drive that ends with a fourth down pass like touchdown
(35:58):
pass to Jehin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach,
and I think that's another reason why the why these
guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
So there's two things that I look at with the
Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game
and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, Like the Jets
were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That
(36:26):
was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
one of the worst offenses in the league. For a
quarterback I don't think can play. I don't think Will
Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I
think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on
the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is
San Francisco makes everybody, So does Andy Reid and McVeigh.
(36:47):
They make a lot of people look bad. In the
week one, I think the Jets are actually a pretty
good football team. When this number got up to four.
Now I sound like such a square on this, but
four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four.
I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want
to create force. They'd rather you be three to three
and a half. When the market has to go to four,
their signaling. Look, it is just a better team. This
(37:10):
started for the Jets for a better team. They're pissed.
I don't think Will Levis can play home Field's never
met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take
the Jets minus three and a half.
Speaker 4 (37:22):
Well, otherwise, guys like the Titans and they're kind of
holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
you bring it up, and we'll do that. In the
last part of my soliloquy. Here the Jets had were
physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
(37:44):
supposed to be their strength, as you noted, h straight
scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Callahan
showed last week that he can do something really interesting
with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective. You know,
(38:08):
Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach,
left the Browns this past season to go work with
his son revamp the Titans offensive line. The Titans defense
did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right
like the Bears were scoring on special teams and they
were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said,
(38:29):
is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the
number here. The four is key. Teams that open at
four or higher at home in weeks one and two
sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years. Teams
that opened at four or higher at home after losing
their last game against the spread, which the text with
(38:50):
the Titans did sixty four percent since twenty twenty one
more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated
on Monday night, and now of a defense that was
on the field for a ton of plays going back
short week to be against another really physical team. That's
what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than
(39:11):
twenty five minutes of possession in Week one six and
twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen
percent the jedal. So look, I'm with you, like, this
isn't going to be one of my five best plays
because I don't trust Will Levis. It's and it's it's
becoming clear in this league there is such a delta
(39:33):
between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not it's
becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite
all these numbers that go back, you're gonna have to
play the quarterback in some situations. And this, to me
is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They
bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
I want to take Denver plus two and a half
against the Steelers. And here's what, Thank god, I thought
it was a really tough spot for bow Knicks. In
the opener, loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
(40:14):
to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
not be the best year, two three, four, he's going
to have the best year. The rest of them have
defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
(40:36):
good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers, his dogs,
not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper Square.
Speaker 4 (40:45):
One, ding Ding Ding ding Ding. Wise guys love the Broncos.
Here's probably going to take a little piece of the
Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for
bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys they love Seattle.
They're really impressed with Seattle defense. So love Mike McDonald
and what he can do with that team. And I
think the Wise guys were also really impressed with how
(41:07):
much better the Broncos played last year this last week
as a team versus what they looked like a year ago.
And defensively true, but I think they were excited about
bo Nicks. And if you watch the game back and
we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
(41:31):
was still getting to know the pace of the game.
They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
moved from three to two and a half, and I
will say you excited about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest
underdog coach possibly in the history of the game the
(41:53):
past twenty years.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
For sure.
Speaker 4 (41:54):
Not just great as an underdog, great as an underdog
winning outright, he is just as bad when he is
a favorite. Forty one twenty eight and one against spread
as a road dog in his career, thirty two forty
and two as a road favorite, so it's almost completely
flipped right. And when he opens as a favorite of
three or more on the road, thirty eight percent against
(42:18):
the spread, So I would say you're on the right side. Also,
we've talked about this on the show. You know, we
do this thing called the luck Rankings at Action that
sort of takes the noise out of all the games
and tells you what the expected score would have been
based on the stats and if you didn't have the
flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when
there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that
(42:40):
has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky
in the Steelers in the and the Broncos. So we
like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:47):
Here, okay, a game every week. I want you to
teach me and the audience a lesson. I don't get
the number. So the Lions go to overtime. That's not good. Generally,
I stay away for teams that go to overtime. You know,
seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
his best game as a pro. This line is seven
(43:11):
and a half. I still think without Poka Nakua and
three backup offensive linemen. The Rams moved the ball up
and down the field in the second half, did everything
they wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higby.
Their tight end is out. They were It was just
Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups. I think
of up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers.
(43:34):
I don't understand the number. You know to me before,
Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half? What's
the side here?
Speaker 4 (43:44):
Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
power ratings, should be bigger favorites, Like I love the
Lions in this spot, and that is a massive number
to that it is as quarterback in Baker it is. Well,
here's the thing. I think that there's a couple of
(44:04):
things going on. Number One, on the Buck side, they
are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that
opening game, right, But you were great against a rebuilding team,
and the expectations for the Bucks for a lot of
people were kind of low, and from a public point
of view, they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable.
(44:28):
But he played against the team with a defensive line
that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that
doesn't have great defensive backs, so he could kind of
have his way. The Rams are like their game plan,
which they had five months to build coming off a
playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were
(44:52):
still losing seventeen to three, and they needed a couple
penalties to get themselves back in a position. And yes,
they were moving the ball up and down the field
because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really
passing the ball and what they did the Rams was brilliant.
Matthew Stafford one step drop first rethrow. Aden Hutchinson was
(45:13):
in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford
was throwing it with after about a second and a
half right. Baker is not that kind of player. Baker
is not as sort of efficient with when he drops
back and getting to his first receiver. And I think
the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they
(45:34):
are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell
is the best coach against the spread the past five years.
Jared Goff twenty six and nine against the spread indoors
like this is a. This is a really good team.
I think this is the second best roster in the NFC.
(45:56):
You could argue the Niners are the best. The line
showed something physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
like the Lions here. I think they are gonna blow
this team away.
Speaker 2 (46:14):
Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
with the Giants in Washington, So what say you?
Speaker 4 (46:26):
Well, look, I do like another favorite. It's a little
choky for me, But I do like the Cowboys against
the Saints. I think you know Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott,
they are juggernauts during the regular season, they are juggernauts
as big favorites at home. I am not a fan
of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina
team and got in the exact right position. But Dak
(46:49):
is a favorite at home fifteen to nine against the spread.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
H he's a good yeah.
Speaker 4 (46:56):
Past three years as a favorite of six or more
in his career thirty one, thirteen and one.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
That's sev.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
Right, Like he's just great in this spot. And so
I like to I am on the side of the
cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting a
good number. Here's the game that a lot of wise
guys have been talking about and has had one of
the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to my stomach,
But we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (47:27):
What if Malik Willis plays.
Speaker 4 (47:29):
I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
this game was at three and a half. It went
down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
and a half. That is not the squares coming in
and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
(47:52):
couple of things. One the swing. The Packers were in
what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
set before last week's games. The Packers were four and
a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
(48:13):
Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
And the way that guy has figured this out is
they take how much better is he than his backup?
It's not just about what would the line be if
he's not playing, it's what would the line be if
his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
(48:37):
of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
think there was a little bit of inflation in the
way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
which is why I got that down. But also there
are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
if he knows anybody, it's the Colts.
Speaker 1 (48:53):
Right.
Speaker 4 (48:54):
For the past couple of years, he's had to prepare
for the Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in
their first game fift against the spread the past three seasons.
There is some sort of overreaction in the market that
it offers a little bit of value. And then just
(49:15):
look on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is
in trouble. They were not great this past week against
the Texans. They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and
their twenty five points or twenty five minutes of possession.
The other team that this applies to from the past
week the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at.
(49:37):
Matt Lafleur. I just said Dan Campbell best coach past
five years against spread. Matt Lafleur second best spread against
the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are
leading people to bet the packers. To hold your nose,
bet the number kind of thing. If you can get
the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and
(49:57):
a half.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
Milman c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
He's an Oxford, Mississippi, now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson.
So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
I can validate that I did have a bunch of
bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
us were at Wright's house hanging out. And you know
you've interviewed right. He is the quintessential Southern personality. Great
voice drips accent like, and he is a Mississippian and
(50:39):
he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out
his house and starts with barbecue dinner, and then it's
a few drinks, and then it's a few more drinks,
and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting
in the same place, and it's beautiful outside and we're
sitting on bourbons. And I get back to my hotel
and you know how in hotels, like there's eight different
lights and eight different lights switching. Yeah, you're not used
(51:01):
to like the layout, right, maddening. And so when I
take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like I can't
see anything. I need to feel the room. And I
realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned
off all the lights. So I had to get like
nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found
the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch
(51:21):
for the light behind the TV, found the light switch
for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the
desk lights, the the side table lights by the bed.
Could not find the light switch for the overhead light,
Like I'm in the wall, cannot find out. I go
back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them
up and down, cannot find it. I had to do
(51:41):
the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like,
I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm
not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this. In the morning,
I cannot find the light switch for my overhead light,
and he goes, Okay, what do you need to do.
I'm like, do you have any idea where the light
(52:01):
switches are in my room? He goes, what room are
you in? I go three twenty five? He goes, all right,
let me think about it. He goes now, and I
don't have anything down here that maps it. I was
about to say to him again, it's after midnight. There's
only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but
I'm about to see him. Any chance you can come
up to my room and check out with the lights aar.
(52:21):
And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say.
After midnight, see where God work? In the front desk.
I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
it out. I put the phone down and I say
to myself, I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have
to sleep with the light on, like I don't know
what else to do. And then I gave myself.
Speaker 2 (52:42):
A newt Rockney.
Speaker 4 (52:43):
I'm like, Milman, you're going to find this light switch.
You can find this light switch. Again, I'm hands on
the wall, feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get
to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat.
It looks like the thermostat found the light switch, turn
it off. Felt full relief. Tripped on my way to
(53:03):
the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I
did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody
on the way.
Speaker 2 (53:10):
And that's that would have been a woman at the
front desk. That's a lawsuit. Yeah, I come to my room. Good,
ye ever, burn spread clearly, it's so good. I cannot
find a light switch. All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Good see anybody.
Speaker 4 (53:27):
Good seeing you too, brother, I'll see you later.
Speaker 2 (53:32):
The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
the podcast, take a moment rate and review
The volume.
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(01:09):
let's start with the Rams Lions. These standalone NFL games
are insane. I mean you had over seven hundred yards
of offense tonight, over five hundred passing yards between the
Lions and the Rams, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff about
five and a half yards of play if you avered
(01:30):
the two teams. Let's see forty six first downs and
no fumbles. Each quarterback threw a pick. Time of possession
was even. First of all, Sean McVay and Matt Stafford
and Cooper Cup. No Puka Nakua, he got hurt. Both
your offensive tackles are out makeshift offensive line to go
(01:52):
into Detroit Sunday night football against the super Bowl level
team in Detroit, and really I thought they had the
game one and regulation. What a performance by Stafford, Cooper
Cup and Sean McVay, who's a rock star. And in
the end though I felt like Detroit when it went
to overtime, I'm like, Okay, now it's Detroit's game. The
Rams look tired sometimes at Chris Collinsworth made a great point,
(02:17):
you're not really built in week one to go to
overtime in a game that's a track meet. It's just
only so much. I don't know who. I don't have
the betting lines next week, but I mean the Rams
and the Lions. They if they were a little off
next week, you'd understand it. But my first take is
the Rams. I mean, I wrote these numbers down. At
one point they had a twenty eight to twelve first
down advantage on the road, four hundred yards, three hundred
(02:41):
passing yard, dominating time of possession, and a seventy eight
to forty five total play advantage at one point in
this game. But credit a very deep, now experienced Lions team,
like they're not new kids on the block. Green Bay
is still young, the Rams are actually pretty young. San
Francisco is older, but the Detroit's got a veteran club
here and now a veteran coaching staff with Ben Johnson
(03:03):
and Dan Campbell. So I think it was just a
team like the Rams gave it everything they had, but
they they looked really shot in overtime, and to the
Lions credit, they just ran the ball right at them.
They didn't f around at all. They went right at
the Rams interior D line and it worked. I think
(03:24):
one of the things I'm always taken by is how
good Matt Stafford is. And we all know he's good.
But I've said this before, if Matt Stafford and the Rams.
And remember what you saw from the Rams Night's impressive.
Poka Nakool will be back, They'll have both their offensive tackles,
their guard will go back to playing center. They'll be
a better team. Plus, they're incredibly young on the defensive side.
(03:44):
I mean they got two rookies starting on that defensive front.
Give those guys twelve to fifteen games. This Ram team
by the end of the year, you don't want any
part of This is a really good team. The difference
is the Lions are supposed to be good now and
they got out played for big chunks of this football game.
One of the things I worry about with the Lions
is they don't have a ton of wide receiver depth,
so they got to keep amor On Saint Brown healthy.
(04:09):
They don't have a lot of depth there, and the
Rams did pick them apart, even though I think they're
a better team in the back end. Rams, and maybe
it's just the Rams Cooper Cup can do that. Rams
kind of picked them apart for long stretches in that
football game. Again, the Rams had a seventy eight to
forty five play advantage at one point, and we're dominating
time of possession. So it's one of those things. Detroit
(04:30):
I didn't think played particularly well in the second half
and they won the game. I thought the Rams were brilliant.
A heartbreaking loss. When you really outplayed a team on
the road, a great team on Sunday night football, and
you lose, that's a long flight back to LA But
I think what you're looking at is two excellent teams,
two teams that could meet again in the NFC Championship.
Wouldn't be surprised in the least. Would not be surprised
(04:53):
in the least. You know the other thing, the Rams,
and I wouldn't call this a problem. It's fascinating. So
there's a lot of discussion because he's gotten nicked up
last couple of years. What do you do with Stafford?
Do you draft another quarterback? But you're watching Stafford tonight.
He went thirty four for forty nine for three hundred
(05:13):
and seventeen yards and a touchdown, the pass rush in
his face. In the second half, he went eighteen to
twenty three for two hundred yards, and again he's under dress.
Jared Goff had a much cleaner pocket, And I'm sitting
there watching Matt Stafford, and I'm thinking, if you're the
Rams for the next couple of years, in the draft,
why draft the quarterback? Just stack the roster. Who are
(05:36):
you going to get in the draft that's as good
as this guy. I know he's older, but when I
watched him tonight on the road pass rush, I mean,
it's basically Cooper Cup. He didn't have Tyler Higbee his
top tight end. He's banged up, he didn't have Pooka Nakua,
he didn't have his tackles. He's putting on a clinic.
(05:56):
You're not going to face many pass rushes, certainly tonight.
You're not going to face many environments in this league
harder than that. And this guy's eighteen for twenty three
in the second half. So you know, I was sitting
as I watched the game, and I'm thinking, what I mean, move.
He's never been a big mover. He moves well enough
in the pocket, his arm's great. I mean, he's clearly
(06:19):
going a thousand miles an hour cognitively. Upstairs, he's got
an incredible relationship with Cooper Cup and Puka Nakua. Now
they got Jordan Winningham, this other receiver they bring in
Tyler Johnson, who I thought was kind of a cast off.
I think he was in Tampa at one point. He
had a huge play tonight. And I'm just saying, I'm
looking at this team and I'm thinking the defense is young.
(06:42):
Stafford's the old guy.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
But I don't know.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
If I draft a quarterback and find the Rams, I
would definitely draft to tackle. Robin Havenstein died in play
the night right tackle he's getting up there, and I
would get another wide receiver. But I mean, last year,
five of their six top picks or defense, so there's
no reason you know they they are close. I think
they could get to the super Bowl. I don't know
if they as good as Kansas City. I don't know
(07:05):
if there's good as Baltimore. I don't know, but they're
certainly in a group of four or five teams that
could get there, five or six teams maybe. So I
just you're watching Stafford. I'm watching Stafford. That guy doesn't
look close to retirement. He didn't look close. Only one
team in the AFC East did not win, the New
(07:27):
York Jets. But I think it's fairly disturbing, and I
understand Kyle Shanahan in openers is rough. Go back one
year the Niners went to Pittsburgh and moved the ball
at will on the Steelers defense. It was a complete blowout.
You know, you face the Andy Reids and you're you know,
I mean, look at what Sean mcvayh and Stafford did
(07:47):
in a losing effort, missing multiple starters Like these offensive
coaches in openers are really good. Mike McCarthy and Dak
looked flawless. So Shanahan's not an easy guy to face.
But I mean, the time of possession when Aaron was
on the field was thirty eight minutes to nineteen. That's embarrassing.
That's what Will Levice would produce. The first downs when
(08:08):
Aaron was on the field, Jets had a twenty five
to eleven deficit. Let's just talk about the Jets offense.
This is a defensive head coach. Aaron's past his prime
off surgery, and Nat Hackett is suboptimal. One receiver you
can trust and Bresall I thought the old line was fine.
Aaron only sacked one time. They were fine that this
(08:32):
wasn't Aaron Rodgers running for his life. You know, let's
just be honest about this. Aaron right now is not
in his prime. He's not as big, strong an athletic
as a Josh Allen or a Justin Herbert. He's not
as he doesn't move like a Kyler, Murray Lamar or
Patrick Mahomes. And I watched them tonight and I think
we have overvalued how good Aaron Rodgers is now. It's
(08:53):
going to get much easier for the Jets defense. They
faced Will Levis and Tennessee next, followed by Kobe Brissett
in New England's offense, followed by Bo Nix and the
Denver offense, followed by Sam Darnold, who had a really
good opening week. But in the next four weeks, the
Jets defense is not going to face this team. But
(09:15):
I think the offense is concerning. It's just Aaron throws
a really pretty ball. Esthetically, it's fun to watch. It's
like that first big drive was great, but the only
other touchdown they produced was off a free ball when
the Niners' safeties were playing catch up because they paused.
Aaron's a great free ball quarterback, best ever in the NFL.
(09:38):
There's a variety of reasons for it. I won't go
into detail, but I always feel like He loves the
free ball because even if he throws a pick, it
doesn't count. So he gets really hyper aggressive on the
free ball and more aggressive than he is normally. Loves
to throw the ball down the field, which sometimes he's
reluctant to do in my opinion, in other parts of
the game. So I just I look at that offense
(10:00):
and I think, you know, the offensive line was fine,
but it wasn't very creative. Aaron's not going to extend
plays like he used to. You know, they've got one receiver,
I like, Mike Williams took almost no snaps in the
first half. The tight ends are irrelevant, and Breese Hall's good.
But this is not a high powered offense. You've got
(10:21):
a defensive head coach, a quarterback passed his prime, and
Nt Hackett. I mean, I think we're building this up.
Miami's offense is going to be better all year because
of Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense will be better. So it's
the third best offense in their division. Let's be totally.
It's not a Houston, it's not Kansas City. I don't
think it's Indianapolis. So we've got to slow down on
this thing. I don't think it's Baltimore. So and that's
(10:44):
just it's not the Rams or the Niners. On the
other side, I don't think it's the Lions. I don't
think it's the Eagles. So you start looking at this offense.
It's not Dallas. After week one, you know it's not
a top ten offense. So you're going to have to
rely very much on this defense. And let's pivot to
the defense. They got pushed around Jesus Jordan Mason. They
had one hundred and eighty yards rushing. I mean, they
(11:07):
had multiple drives where they were doing whatever they wanted to. Now,
again it's Shanahan, it's the opener, but the San Francisco
forty nine Ers offensive line is the weakness of the team,
and with Trent Williams holding out for most of camp,
that's why I thought the game would be so low scoring.
I thought this was going to be played between the thirties.
(11:27):
I was shocked at how easily the Niners picked up
chunk plays on the ground and in the air. I mean,
it was pretty much they did whatever they wanted to.
It could be Debo, it could be Jennings, they could
run it with Deebo or Jordan Mason. It was Kittle,
it was Ayuk, I mean he dropped a touchdown. They
did whatever they wanted to for most of this game.
(11:49):
And again now it's Will Levis, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nicks.
It's not the same. I mean the Jets defense. In fact,
you know, teams that play San Francisco usually get thumped
the following week because the Niners are so physical. I
think the Jets coming back were kind of physically humiliated
in this game. I mean, be honest, you didn't think
it would.
Speaker 1 (12:08):
Look like that.
Speaker 2 (12:09):
I didn't think it would look like that. I thought
this thing had twenty three twenty written all over it.
I cannot believe what the Niners offensive line did. It
was chunk plays six eight eleven, six eight eleven.
Speaker 1 (12:20):
It was easy.
Speaker 2 (12:21):
It was just and they weren't doing a lot of tricks,
you know. I mean, the Rams and the Niners use
a lot of motion. I never felt Miami does as well.
I didn't feel it was terribly deceptive tonight. I didn't think.
I thought the Niners just kind of rare back, ran
to the perimeter and did whatever they wanted to outside
the tackles. It was easy stuff. Brock pretty I mean,
(12:42):
he wasn't squeezing the ball into tight windows. Jennings Debo
people were open. So this wasn't a very resilient effort
by the Jets. I take copious notes. You know, one
point twenty three to seven, Aaron gets picked. That's twenty
six to seven the free play. But you know Aaron's
(13:03):
a master at that. I guess the best news for
the Jets the quarterback play and the schedule lightens up considerably.
But that was a disheartening effort. If I had to
point to one thing, I didn't think their offense would
be great tonight, flying cross country BOSA against an old
(13:25):
Tyron Smith, Like I thought it would be choppy. The
Jets defense, I mean, and it's not just Hassan Reddick's absence.
That was a weak effort. That was a non competitive effort.
Jesus thirty eight to nineteen minutes time of possession when
Aaron Rodgers were on the field. That's an ass kicking.
That's like, you're not competitive, You're not extending drives at all.
(13:48):
I mean, and the other thing tonight, they did it
without Christian McCaffrey, who is the engine to this offense.
One hundred and eighty plus rushing yards, but no Christian
McCaffrey wide open receivers twenty five to eleven first down
edge when Aaron was on the field. Wow, I'm I'm
I'm surprised by the ease of it. The Niners had
(14:09):
eight straight scoring drives. I you can Trent Williams held
out and no Christian McCaffrey. Eight straight scoring drives. That's
like what the Saints did yesterday to Carolina. I mean,
it's Week one. It's not like you have a litany
of injuries. Eight straight scoring drives like Robert Salah that
(14:30):
that's not good enough. There's no excuses. This is this
is your culture, this is your team. I mean, would
you have guessed that, I mean McCatty once you heard
McCaffrey wasn't gonna play. If I said to you, they'll
score in eight straight scoring drives, you would have said, oh,
come on, you're an Aaron Rodgers hater. That's bad. TD
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Speaker 2 (16:21):
All Right, Former NFL Scout three and out podcaster John
Middelkoff of the Volume Week one reaction presented by Uber
Eats get almost almost anything for Game Day. All right,
let's start with Tom Brady's debut. Good God, Cleveland a disaster.
You know, I was sitting there thinking as I'm watching
that game, if you're going to sign a contract to
(16:41):
a quarterback, to a guaranteed contract, which you you know
Kirk Cousins got one and and DeShawn Watson. I not
only want a great player, I want a great leader.
I want great health, I want an ascending player. He's
virtually none of those. I mean, it's just typical Cleveland.
What's ironic after watching Baker today? Baker's a much better
(17:01):
quarterback today, John than Deshaun Watson. I mean, Baker was
a rock star today. I'm sitting there and I'm like,
we know it's not Stefanski. We know he's a really
bright guy and a good play caller. I mean, I
don't even know what Deshaun Watson is. I mean changing uniforms.
He's a bottom ten quarterback.
Speaker 4 (17:21):
You know.
Speaker 1 (17:21):
As funny as I had on the Redskins or the
Commander's game on a little TV and I wrote down
about ten minutes before we jumped on, Baker's in a
different universe. Not just as a thrower, his touch, I
mean Deshaun's throwing balls into the stands constantly, but his swag,
the way he carries himself, the way his teammates, and
(17:42):
even as a playmaker. I mean it's not like Baker's
some elite athlete, but moving around. Deshaun Watson Dak Prescott
signed the same contract, essentially two hundred and thirty million
dollars guaranteed. How could you pay a player who has
character question marks and who has a short resume. I mean,
I'm getting text constantly. I'm sure you are. It has
to go down immediately as one of the worst deals
(18:04):
in the history of pro sports. You look at Dak
has his flaws in January, very consistent regular season player,
super smart guy, yeah, high character leader. Everyone that knows
him like him. Deshaun Watson. I was out on him
last year. Today, what an embarrassment? Where's the playmaking? Colin?
He doesn't make any play well.
Speaker 2 (18:25):
And he was never a hyper athletic or he was
never a hyper accurate thrower. That was always the beat
on him. I can remember his first year, everybody liked him.
He would skip throws. He's not a pretty thrower, he's
not an easy thrower. Everything looks like it's a struggle downfield.
You know, he was a wildly dynamic athlete. You take
(18:45):
that out and I mean, he's no more athletic today
than Dak Prescott. And I've always thought Dak's sort of
a b athlete and a b arm But I was
watching Daxon and I'm like, oh, Dak's a much much
better player than Deshaun Watson. And the thing about Dak,
Dak is a guy that even when he has his faults,
you do feel like he is the soul of the organization.
(19:07):
He's the soul for sure. Deshaun Watson, if you went
through that locker room and a half the guy asked
half the guys and you go, you could move off
the contract. So I look at Cleveland and I think
desperate franchises, desperate owners do dumb things. They're sunk. You
can't go anywhere in the AFC with Deshaun Watson. I
want to talk about the Bears game. First of all,
(19:29):
the fact that they won a game and passed for
sixty four yards, so it was interesting. Belichick said something
last week. I took the Titans to win that game,
and basically I was on the right side. I felt
for almost the entire game. But Belichick said something this
week and I took it to heart. Belichick said, I
wasn't impressed. He was like ten for twenty. And I
(19:51):
went back and I text somebody who is I know
who's in the NFL who's been critical of him. And
the big question with Caleb is high school. In college,
he can really get in the weeds with his accuracy,
he can really get into the high grass. And if
you recall, Mahomes could do that a little bit in
(20:11):
his first three years and then Andy would pull him
back in. Mahomes would get really off mechanically. Stafford's done
that in his career where it's so easy for Mahomes
and Stafford they start side arming two out of three throws,
the mechanics get sloppy, and I thought with Caleb, he's
got a defensive coach, So Mahomes has Andy. Stafford at
(20:33):
one point had an offensive coordinator he really connected with.
Now he has McVeigh. But I think with Caleb is
when he gets sloppy mechanically, who brings him back on
the fairway? Because I thought today he struggled at times
to see things. You know, I thought his decision making
late in the game and not making mistakes and taking
(20:54):
what was given for him was fine. But I mean
all these guys struggled today. Bo Nix was as good
as any bud and he threw two picks. What did
you make of Caleb overall today?
Speaker 1 (21:04):
Well, I think if you go back to Bill's comments,
He's like, listen, I'm not being a hater, but I
don't put anything in the preseason. And when you're inaccurate
in the preseason. Do you know what hit me today?
Watching about ten games in the morning on different TVs
and screens. You know how the NBA. Once the playoffs start,
You're like, what we just witnessed for the last six
months doesn't even look like the same sport. That's kind
of the preseason. I mean, the first ten minutes of
(21:28):
like ten am to like ten thirty, You're watching the
Steeler game, the Houston Indie game. Guys are flying around.
I'm like, this doesn't even resemble what we just witnessed. Right, So,
the defensive game plans. All these defensive coordinators, even the
average ones, are making one and a half two million dollars.
They're paid a lot of money to do this. The
physicality of the game rams up the question on Caleb
(21:50):
he is going to be able to make spectacular throws
though he wasn't doing that today. He was I think
he was really rattled and his confidence was all shot.
But can he just make basic throws from in the pocket,
whether it's a fastball or whether it's a layered throw.
And it kind of unraveled on him and unraveled on
him fast. Now. The tight Jeffrey Simmons is probably one
of the better players that the casual fan doesn't know
(22:10):
that much about because he plays for the Titans. You
put him on the Cowboys or the Eagles or something.
He'd be a star. And they were hitting his ass
hard and he was he was thrown off and will
Levis bailed their team out. Because if will Levis does
n't self implode, the Titans not only easily should have covered,
they should win the game. I mean, he looked like
Daniel Jones there, but Caleb was He was atrocious today.
(22:32):
I mean he really was, which is fair because this
is what Bill and Bill's an old school guy, Sean Payton's,
all these guys that come from the eighties, the nineties,
the Bill Parcells. They hate hype, you know you and
I like some hype, Yeah, I enjoy it. Those guys
do not like it because it doesn't mean anything once
you kick off week one, and all that hype was
(22:52):
meaningless today if on third and seven he's skipping a
ball and he was, and it unraveled fast. The arm strength,
all the talent doesn't mean shit. And like you said,
it gets back to Jayden Daniels. Beside his running didn't
look great. Bo Nicks, who has an offensive play caller now,
he was on the road, granted, looked overwhelmed a lot
of the time. Yeah, it's hard. This is really really.
(23:14):
This is why I've said pump the breaks, especially on
Caleb and the Bears. I don't know, like Nick Wright
picked him to win the Super Bowl. A lot of
people are hot, you know, he threw that out. I
don't know if he actually picked. But my point is
he could make serious strides as the year goes on
and they could win seven games. This is really Look
at Sam Darnolly, He's been the league for like seven years.
Has taken him forever to figure it out. Yeah, no,
(23:35):
it's not easy.
Speaker 2 (23:36):
No, I said this. I did a piece for Fox
Sunday and I said, be careful on Caleb Williams. This
is one of the best divisions. This is a franchise
that ran Trubisky out of town and he made the
playoffs twice with Aaron Rodgers and Stafford in their prime.
This media is rough, the weather gets rough by Thanksgiving.
(23:58):
If they win eight games and he gets better, take it.
If you could take that today and say he's significantly better,
we win at games we finished third, take it, because
what success looks like to Dak is not what success
looks like. You know, years ago, you and I grew
up the hardest thing to do was hit a baseball. Now,
(24:18):
that's still really hard. Yeah, it's still really hard. But
quarterback now has entered that space because it's not a
run centric league. It's a sixty forty sixty two to
thirty eight passing league. And I mean it's even Gino Smith,
a veteran today his best play was a run. Like
(24:40):
this stuff is hard, and I think we just have
to understand. I thought all the quarterbacks looked overwhelmed. I
thought bow Nicks had a little rhythm at one point
in the game where he felt like I felt like
bow seeing the game. It wasn't doing much, but he
was seeing the game, he was seeing the field, and
he was facing a new defensive head coach. So all
(25:02):
twenty four points today were scored by defense and special teams.
Will Levis to me, is done. He's baked. I don't
think his college game looks like his pro game. Doesn't
see the field. Terrible judgment. I think Caleb's going to
be fine, But to your point, he looked overwhelmed. And
I think the other thing is if you opened up
(25:23):
on the road, it's different, dude. He opened up in Chicago.
The weather was perfect, that a buddy at the game,
like there was a lot of fricking heat on Caleb today,
Like a.
Speaker 1 (25:31):
Lot of pressure on Caleb. Well, that's where if you
you know, if you take bo Nicks, you take Caleb.
Bo Nix is in Seattle where the place is really
loud and he can barely hear himself. Think Caleb gets
a pretty BP fastball of twelve o'clock kickoff in Chicago.
I'm a huge believer in two things. For young people,
whether you're a professional athlete or just a normal person
(25:51):
in society, confidence can be lost really quickly, and it
can be hard to gain. I would say, you know
in your early twenties and when you are everyone's looking
at you. When you start losing confidence, it can spiral
and the only thing you ever have to go back
on is your experience. But as a young player, you
don't have any experience. Like Geno today, you're watching early on,
You're like gott Seattle looks weird, he's been through it.
(26:13):
Dak today. All these guys have so much experience that
they don't freak out over one drive. They don't freak
out over a bad quarter. And you just watched Caleb.
You just felt it snowballing, and what does he have
to go back on?
Speaker 2 (26:26):
Right?
Speaker 1 (26:26):
Nothing? And it's not like he can look over there
and Bill Walsh's on the sideline and be like, listen,
I've been doing this for thirty years, won a couple
Super Bowls. I'm gonna call three plays, get you a
couple of layups. And they were just they were very scattered. Yes,
they felt very I mean there was one point in
time in that game before Will Levis just pooped down
(26:46):
his own leg where You're like, are they gonna lose
twenty eight to ten? Yeah, and just be the number
one story of the day tomorrow morning that the Bears
and Caleb specifically are not nearly as good as we think,
because that I really think that you can defensive turnovers,
like if they're playing a top, if they're playing just
(27:07):
Baker Mayfield or Ge they have blown out, they get killed.
Speaker 2 (27:11):
Yeah, So I mean they get killed.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
And I'm not jumping on Caleb here, which I would
imagine is going to happen a lot this week. I
just think everyone this is so much more difficult at
the NFL level than college, even if you're playing at
a high level of college and Caleb was playing a
lot of good teams in college. But the level of athlete,
the level of speed, he just did the rhythm. I mean,
(27:34):
it was just it was glaring.
Speaker 2 (27:36):
I want to talk about the Broncos and Seahawks, because
again I thought Bo had his moments. I'm watching Seattle
and I say this respectively to Pete Carroll. I think
Seattle has elite talent. I just don't think people know
the players. But Walker, they're wide receivers. They have tremendous
(27:58):
young corners they got to consider to pass rush. They
got the Murphy kid in the draft, the top defensive tackle.
A fan left today. It's Gino is what he is, like,
he's a really solid he's a great story. He is
what he is. He's not gonna lose you a lot
of games. He's not gonna win you a lot of games.
But I'm watching that game today and Sean Payton coached
his ass off for a half. He got them. I
(28:20):
mean a lot of this was Seattle do it getting safeties,
and it was quirky, and then all of a sudden,
by the second half, you're like, Okay, now we're off script,
and now Bo Nicks is a rookie quarterback, and he
just you know, that's the difference between a veteran dak
in the second half and bow Knicks in the second half.
Both's like, Okay, now they adjusted, So I got the
everything on the script. I figured out. Now it's all
off script, and I'm watching that Seattle team. John, But
(28:43):
I think you called him one of the surprise teams.
I'll just say it right now. Maybe they're not Baltimore.
I think they are really talented. They really they fly
around the field defensively.
Speaker 1 (28:57):
I actually was kind of on the other side, well,
their talent. My issue with them is they've been they
were poorly coached, but they've been winning nine games. You know,
it's not like they've been winning five and a good division. Yeah,
that's why I'm fanseled. How do they go from? Do
you think they could win eleven? I still think their
offensive line has some question mark Today safety got punked.
(29:19):
Gino has his limitations. But you're right. I mean, Kenneth Walker,
there's a chance at the end of the year he's
a top five running back. How about the catch Lockett
made to seal the game. He's their third wide receiver.
Speaker 2 (29:30):
And he's been there Jesus, he's been great for ten years.
Speaker 1 (29:33):
He's got to be one of the more underappreciated players
of his generation. Might not even be close. I think
I could play for my team any day now. If
their defense is better, they still might be a nine
ish win team. But could they beat the forty nine
ers in again, because they haven't beat the forty nine
ers in five games now, Gina, they play him two
years ago in the playoffs now, so they if they
can play at a more physical brand. My question marks
(29:55):
you never know what the coordinator going to a head coach.
He's young. I think he's thirty seven years old. And
their offensive coordinator, who we all loved in college, who
was to bors right him, had never coached in the NFL.
They showed his resume to day. He was a Sioux
Falls not that long ago. It's a pretty quick jump.
Now he clearly knows what he's doing, and so their
coaching staff might just be better. I saw watch John
(30:16):
Schnyder's press conference at the end of training camp. You
can tell he thinks they got something. Not he knows
their team is talented, but like he thinks the coaching
staff's pretty good. So like can they beat McVeigh and Kyle,
can they split? Can they go to and two? Because
if they can, then maybe they're not nine and eight,
they're ten and seven and they're like the six or
seven seed. I would say that's possible. I'm not going
(30:38):
to overreact to playing Denver who. It's just you could
tell they're a little talent devision still with with a
rookie quarterback. But yeah, I mean it's hard not to.
He's an easy guy to root for. G know's an
easy guy to root for. I just wonder in Sunday
night Monday Night games and Tom Brady calling it if
you're both four and one or however the schedule and
(30:58):
you're playing the Rams or you're playing the Niners, are
you I'm not picking Gino Smith Homer Away?
Speaker 2 (31:03):
Yeah, all right? Time for Sharper Square, Chad Millman CEO,
Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings. So I was
a Will Levis bonehead play from going two, two and one.
So I was overjoyed. I actually thought, I mean I
(31:23):
was wrong on the Carolina side, but other than that,
I felt pretty good about it. I could go in
an order of importance, but I was thinking about this.
I am above going in order. I just give you
my plays and you dissect them. So let's just start
with a team that is this close to beating Kansas
City Arrowhead, and I think the Chiefs are a better
version of last year's Super Bowl champ Baltimore. I think
(31:47):
the Raiders are bad, and I don't think they're terribly
well coached. I mean the fact that the only way
they'll win this physicality, and the Chargers were more physical.
They beat them at the only game. I think Baltimore's
really good. I don't think Lamar will run sixteen times
on average. I think Kansas City brings that out of him.
(32:08):
It's a huge number. I hate doing that. I think
Baltimore's pissed. I'm gonna swallow the eight and a half
Sharper square. So it's square.
Speaker 4 (32:16):
But you're not going to find a ton of guys who,
when they're doing this, are excited about betting the Raiders.
You mentioned Carolina, right, I was on Carolina last week too.
The wise guys will be on Carolina again this week
at six and a half point underdogs, in the same
way they're going to be on the Raiders, which started
at nine and a half got up to ten and
(32:37):
then was bet down to nine and a half, than nine,
and now eight and a half. So it's getting closer
to a number that I think at some point the
wise guys will come back in on Baltimore. But at
this big of a number, they're just betting the number,
And this early in the season, everything tells you that
you are playing against the over reaction. Right, everyone saw
the same thing you did. The Ravens come within a
(32:59):
toenail of tying the Chiefs at Arrowhead in a massive
game against the Chiefs team that looks like you can
break every rule of betting that exists in the universe. Right,
the Raiders people were high on. They got crushed and
they didn't look very good doing it. And Antonio Peers
made terrible, terrible decisions. I read in the Athletic that
(33:20):
that decision he made on fourth down in his own territory,
it was the first time a coach had been down
in his own territory in the fourth quarter and punted
in eight years. It's one of the most cowardly calls
that has been made in the past eight years. And
you could see him on camera. There's the videos of
him saying should I be going for this right now.
(33:40):
So there's a sentiment that people are overreacting to the
bad coaching, the bad play, and the great play by
the Ravens. So yes, the wise guys are going to
be on the Raiders.
Speaker 2 (33:51):
So let me take an underdog. Minnesota at home against
the forty nine ers San Francisco in a short week,
played virtually a perfect football game. Even when you're as
good a the Niners. That's very hard to do back
to back. Pretty always feels like he's better at home.
Minnesota will negate some of the pass rush because they're
great at left tackle. They're also good at running back,
tight end, wide receiver, and they can bring a little heat.
(34:14):
I think Minnesota is actually I said this before the season.
If they finish fourth, they will be the greatest fourth
place team in the history of the league. They've got
a lot of good players. They have a brilliant coach,
really really sharp guy. He reminds me of Kevin Stefanski
before he started winning Coach of the Year. He's just
he's operating at a different level. This was at six
at one point. I think I take the Vikings five
(34:34):
and a half sharper square.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
Wise guys are taking the Vikings at five and a half,
they took them at six. They still like the Vikings.
I got to tell you I was leaning Niners in
this game. And part of it is Kyle Shanahan is
so good. You and I have talked about this, like,
he does not get concerned when he's missing pieces. It
actually I think inspires him to be more creative. And
(34:56):
he's also been very good on short weeks on the
road eight and two during his career, one of the
four best coaches in the past five years on short
weeks when he's a favorite on the road. That said,
I think Kevin O'Connell is starting to get a lot
more credit as a coach than people wanted to give him.
You know, two years ago, three years ago, it was
(35:17):
Brian Dayball and Kevin O'Connell. They were neck and neck
for Rookie of the Year coaching. They both had teams
that were excellent in one score games they played each
other in the playoffs. The Giants win in Minnesota, Brian
dave Ball wins Coach of the Year. He's getting more
credit as the best coach, right, and Kevin O'Connell had
a similar year and then last year did wonders when
(35:37):
Kirk Cousins went down, and Brian Daball's team is cratering
when their top quarterback goes down. Then we see what
happens last week. A bad quarterback for the Giants, a
historically bad quarterback in Sam Darnold, and he has a
Cinderella like first half ten for ten on his first
ten passes with a touchdown, a ninety nine yard touchdown
drive that ends with a fourth down pass like touchdown
(35:58):
pass to Jehin Jefferson. Kevin O'Connell is a very good coach,
and I think that's another reason why the why these
guys are in their vikings.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
So there's two things that I look at with the
Jets in this heightens when you play a standalone game
and the feeling is you're humiliated physically, Like the Jets
were pushed around the field eight straight scoring drives by
San Francisco. That is so embarrassing for Robert Sala. That
(36:26):
was an embarrassing physical performance. Now they go to potentially
one of the worst offenses in the league. For a
quarterback I don't think can play. I don't think Will
Levis can play. I don't think he's fluid enough. I
think his judgment's bad. This is what I saw on
the SEC. That's the first part. The second part is
San Francisco makes everybody, So does Andy Reid and McVeigh.
(36:47):
They make a lot of people look bad. In the
week one, I think the Jets are actually a pretty
good football team. When this number got up to four.
Now I sound like such a square on this, but
four is an interesting number. Here's how I view four.
I like favorites at four because the market doesn't want
to create force. They'd rather you be three to three
and a half. When the market has to go to four,
their signaling. Look, it is just a better team. This
(37:10):
started for the Jets for a better team. They're pissed.
I don't think Will Levis can play home Field's never
met anything in Nashville. I know it's square. I take
the Jets minus three and a half.
Speaker 4 (37:22):
Well, otherwise, guys like the Titans and they're kind of
holding their nose here. There's a couple things in play,
and that number four is really important, and I'm glad
you bring it up, and we'll do that. In the
last part of my soliloquy. Here the Jets had were
physically dominated totally. Not just that their defense, which is
(37:44):
supposed to be their strength, as you noted, h straight
scoring drives. Their defensive line was destroyed by Shanahan's blocking
scheme and their run scheme, and they could not get
to Purty, who's just incredibly nifty in the pocket. Callahan
showed last week that he can do something really interesting
with this Titans offensive line from a running perspective. You know,
(38:08):
Bill Callahan, who is Brian Callahan's father, legendary offensive line coach,
left the Browns this past season to go work with
his son revamp the Titans offensive line. The Titans defense
did not give up a touchdown to the Bears, right
like the Bears were scoring on special teams and they
were scoring on defense because Will Levis, as you said,
(38:29):
is a terrible quarterback. The wise guys are betting the
number here. The four is key. Teams that open at
four or higher at home in weeks one and two
sixty percent against the spread the last twenty years. Teams
that opened at four or higher at home after losing
their last game against the spread, which the text with
(38:50):
the Titans did sixty four percent since twenty twenty one
more stat that is very interesting. The Jets were dominated
on Monday night, and now of a defense that was
on the field for a ton of plays going back
short week to be against another really physical team. That's
what the Titans want to be. Teams with fewer than
(39:11):
twenty five minutes of possession in Week one six and
twenty five against the spread in Week two. That's nineteen
percent the jedal. So look, I'm with you, like, this
isn't going to be one of my five best plays
because I don't trust Will Levis. It's and it's it's
becoming clear in this league there is such a delta
(39:33):
between competent quarterbacking and really good quarterbacking and not it's
becoming too much of a hindrance for teams where despite
all these numbers that go back, you're gonna have to
play the quarterback in some situations. And this, to me
is a scary spot. The wise guys aren't scared. They
bet the Titans. I'm a little scared.
Speaker 2 (39:53):
I want to take Denver plus two and a half
against the Steelers. And here's what, Thank god, I thought
it was a really tough spot for bow Knicks. In
the opener, loud stadium. You don't really know the defense.
You have to go watch Baltimore. Mike McDonald also, Seattle's
got elite corners, and you're a rookie. They asked him
(40:14):
to throw forty two times. He had one terrible pick.
He's more mobile and anybody thinks. And I had another
another ex player who I respect, tell me this week
he's going to be the best rookie quarterback. He may
not be the best year, two three, four, he's going
to have the best year. The rest of them have
defensive coaches. I think Denver wins here. They've always been
(40:36):
good at home. I think it's a coaching mismatch. I
think Peyton's a brilliant coach. I like the Steelers, his dogs,
not his favorites. Denver plus the point Sharper Square.
Speaker 4 (40:45):
One, ding Ding Ding ding Ding. Wise guys love the Broncos.
Here's probably going to take a little piece of the
Broncos on the money line as well. Great spot for
bow Nicks. I think the Wise guys they love Seattle.
They're really impressed with Seattle defense. So love Mike McDonald
and what he can do with that team. And I
think the Wise guys were also really impressed with how
(41:07):
much better the Broncos played last year this last week
as a team versus what they looked like a year ago.
And defensively true, but I think they were excited about
bo Nicks. And if you watch the game back and
we heard this on the favorites from scouts and from
professionals who all watch a lot of film, bo Nicks
recognizes he missed some easy throws and that's because he
(41:31):
was still getting to know the pace of the game.
They liked the way he was a gamer. They liked
the way the Broncos stayed in that game. They basically
made the game a push. They backdoor pushed in that game.
Seattle was a six point favorite, So there's a lot
of sentiment that this is the right side. The line
moved from three to two and a half, and I
will say you excited about Tomlin. Tomlin is the greatest
underdog coach possibly in the history of the game the
(41:53):
past twenty years.
Speaker 2 (41:54):
For sure.
Speaker 4 (41:54):
Not just great as an underdog, great as an underdog
winning outright, he is just as bad when he is
a favorite. Forty one twenty eight and one against spread
as a road dog in his career, thirty two forty
and two as a road favorite, so it's almost completely
flipped right. And when he opens as a favorite of
three or more on the road, thirty eight percent against
(42:18):
the spread, So I would say you're on the right side. Also,
we've talked about this on the show. You know, we
do this thing called the luck Rankings at Action that
sort of takes the noise out of all the games
and tells you what the expected score would have been
based on the stats and if you didn't have the
flukiness and things like that, which there's always regression when
there's flukiness. Broncos are one of the three games that
(42:40):
has the highest sort of delta between lucky and unlucky
in the Steelers in the and the Broncos. So we
like the Broncos.
Speaker 2 (42:47):
Here, okay, a game every week. I want you to
teach me and the audience a lesson. I don't get
the number. So the Lions go to overtime. That's not good. Generally,
I stay away for teams that go to overtime. You know,
seven to ten more plays the Lions. Clearly Baker played
his best game as a pro. This line is seven
(43:11):
and a half. I still think without Poka Nakua and
three backup offensive linemen. The Rams moved the ball up
and down the field in the second half, did everything
they wanted to do. Blake Korham didn't even play Tyler Higby.
Their tight end is out. They were It was just
Cooper Cup, Matt Stafford and McVeigh and backups. I think
of up and down the field. Baker's got legitimate receivers.
(43:34):
I don't understand the number. You know to me before,
Why explain how Detroit is seven and a half? What's
the side here?
Speaker 4 (43:44):
Well, look that the Lions, according to a lot of
power ratings, should be bigger favorites, Like I love the
Lions in this spot, and that is a massive number
to that it is as quarterback in Baker it is. Well,
here's the thing. I think that there's a couple of
(44:04):
things going on. Number One, on the Buck side, they
are getting overvalued because Baker was so good in that
opening game, right, But you were great against a rebuilding team,
and the expectations for the Bucks for a lot of
people were kind of low, and from a public point
of view, they've now exceeded them. And Baker looked unbeatable.
(44:28):
But he played against the team with a defensive line
that is basically starting from scratch against a defense that
doesn't have great defensive backs, so he could kind of
have his way. The Rams are like their game plan,
which they had five months to build coming off a
playoff game. They were so tuned in and they were
(44:52):
still losing seventeen to three, and they needed a couple
penalties to get themselves back in a position. And yes,
they were moving the ball up and down the field
because their offensive line was terrible, but it was really
passing the ball and what they did the Rams was brilliant.
Matthew Stafford one step drop first rethrow. Aden Hutchinson was
(45:13):
in his grill every single play, even when Matthew Stafford
was throwing it with after about a second and a
half right. Baker is not that kind of player. Baker
is not as sort of efficient with when he drops
back and getting to his first receiver. And I think
the Lions, and we saw this in the overtime, they
(45:34):
are so physically dominant. They're playing at home. Dan Campbell
is the best coach against the spread the past five years.
Jared Goff twenty six and nine against the spread indoors
like this is a. This is a really good team.
I think this is the second best roster in the NFC.
(45:56):
You could argue the Niners are the best. The line
showed something physically dominant team. It is not about the edges,
It is not about Dan Campbell and sort of going
for it. Their offensive defensive line are fierce. So I
like the Lions here. I think they are gonna blow
this team away.
Speaker 2 (46:14):
Okay, I always ask you for a game I missed
a game you feel strongly about. It's often an unwatchable,
egregiously bad television product. But I already gave you that
with the Giants in Washington, So what say you?
Speaker 4 (46:26):
Well, look, I do like another favorite. It's a little
choky for me, But I do like the Cowboys against
the Saints. I think you know Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott,
they are juggernauts during the regular season, they are juggernauts
as big favorites at home. I am not a fan
of the Saints. I think they played a bad Carolina
team and got in the exact right position. But Dak
(46:49):
is a favorite at home fifteen to nine against the spread.
Speaker 2 (46:54):
H he's a good yeah.
Speaker 4 (46:56):
Past three years as a favorite of six or more
in his career thirty one, thirteen and one.
Speaker 2 (47:01):
That's sev.
Speaker 4 (47:03):
Right, Like he's just great in this spot. And so
I like to I am on the side of the
cowboys here. I think anything under seven you're getting a
good number. Here's the game that a lot of wise
guys have been talking about and has had one of
the biggest moves, and it makes me sick to my stomach,
But we're going to bet it. Green Bay Packers.
Speaker 2 (47:27):
What if Malik Willis plays.
Speaker 4 (47:29):
I know, I know, I don't know what to tell you,
but like, that's that's the game everybody is talking about. Look,
this game was at three and a half. It went
down to three. Now there's some places where it's two
and a half. That is not the squares coming in
and betting on the Packers. That is the wise guys
coming in. And like I think, I think there's a
(47:52):
couple of things. One the swing. The Packers were in
what's called the look aheadline, so the line that was
set before last week's games. The Packers were four and
a half point favorites with Malik Willis, they opened US
three and a half point underdogs. That's an eight point swing.
(48:13):
Patrick Mahomes is worth eight points against the point spread.
And the way that guy has figured this out is
they take how much better is he than his backup?
It's not just about what would the line be if
he's not playing, it's what would the line be if
his backup is playing? Right, So, Jordan Love, as good
as he is, is not an eight point swing kind
(48:37):
of generator when it comes to quarterback play. So they
think there was a little bit of inflation in the
way that they reopen the line from three and a half,
which is why I got that down. But also there
are some on the field elements here. Number one, Malik Willis,
if he knows anybody, it's the Colts.
Speaker 1 (48:53):
Right.
Speaker 4 (48:54):
For the past couple of years, he's had to prepare
for the Colts backup quarterbacks when they are playing in
their first game fift against the spread the past three seasons.
There is some sort of overreaction in the market that
it offers a little bit of value. And then just
(49:15):
look on the field, like the Colts defensive secondary is
in trouble. They were not great this past week against
the Texans. They're banged up. I mentioned the Jets and
their twenty five points or twenty five minutes of possession.
The other team that this applies to from the past
week the Indianapolis Colts. So that's another factor to look at.
(49:37):
Matt Lafleur. I just said Dan Campbell best coach past
five years against spread. Matt Lafleur second best spread against
the spread. So a lot of indicators here that are
leading people to bet the packers. To hold your nose,
bet the number kind of thing. If you can get
the three, I wouldn't say take it at two and
(49:57):
a half.
Speaker 2 (50:00):
Milman c CEO Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
He's an Oxford, Mississippi, now celebrating a friend's new book, right, Thompson.
So it's supposed to be a bourbon town. That's what
I'm not a bourbon drinker. It's supposed to be a
bourbon town. Can you validate that or verify that.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
I can validate that I did have a bunch of
bourbons last night. I'll tell you a funny story. I
got back to my hotel. We were a bunch of
us were at Wright's house hanging out. And you know
you've interviewed right. He is the quintessential Southern personality. Great
voice drips accent like, and he is a Mississippian and
(50:39):
he's got this town wired. And so we're hanging out
his house and starts with barbecue dinner, and then it's
a few drinks, and then it's a few more drinks,
and then it's like after midnight and we're still sitting
in the same place, and it's beautiful outside and we're
sitting on bourbons. And I get back to my hotel
and you know how in hotels, like there's eight different
lights and eight different lights switching. Yeah, you're not used
(51:01):
to like the layout, right, maddening. And so when I
take out my contacts, I'm legally blind, Like I can't
see anything. I need to feel the room. And I
realized I took out my contacts and I hadn't turned
off all the lights. So I had to get like
nose to the wall to find the light switches. Found
the light switch for the hallway, found the light switch
(51:21):
for the light behind the TV, found the light switch
for the bathroom, like felt around and got to the
desk lights, the the side table lights by the bed.
Could not find the light switch for the overhead light,
Like I'm in the wall, cannot find out. I go
back to all the other light switches. I'm putting them
up and down, cannot find it. I had to do
(51:41):
the most embarrassing thing. I called the front desk. I'm like,
I know, Oxford's a crazy town. I promise you, I'm
not so far gone. I'm gonna forget this. In the morning,
I cannot find the light switch for my overhead light,
and he goes, Okay, what do you need to do.
I'm like, do you have any idea where the light
(52:01):
switches are in my room? He goes, what room are
you in? I go three twenty five? He goes, all right,
let me think about it. He goes now, and I
don't have anything down here that maps it. I was
about to say to him again, it's after midnight. There's
only one guy in the desk. He can't leave, but
I'm about to see him. Any chance you can come
up to my room and check out with the lights aar.
(52:21):
And then as I was about to say it, I'm like,
that's the most sketchy thing that you could possibly say.
After midnight, see where God work? In the front desk.
I put the I said, you know what, I'll figure
it out. I put the phone down and I say
to myself, I'm like, I'm just I'm just gonna have
to sleep with the light on, like I don't know
what else to do. And then I gave myself.
Speaker 2 (52:42):
A newt Rockney.
Speaker 4 (52:43):
I'm like, Milman, you're going to find this light switch.
You can find this light switch. Again, I'm hands on
the wall, feeling it around, feeling around. Finally I get
to the thermostat. It is directly next to the thermostat.
It looks like the thermostat found the light switch, turn
it off. Felt full relief. Tripped on my way to
(53:03):
the bed because I couldn't see anything anymore. But I
did find that light switch. And I didn't insult anybody
on the way.
Speaker 2 (53:10):
And that's that would have been a woman at the
front desk. That's a lawsuit. Yeah, I come to my room. Good,
ye ever, burn spread clearly, it's so good. I cannot
find a light switch. All right, I'm gonna bounce back.
Good see anybody.
Speaker 4 (53:27):
Good seeing you too, brother, I'll see you later.
Speaker 2 (53:32):
The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed
the podcast, take a moment rate and review
Host
Colin Cowherd
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