May 3, 2024 • 44 mins
In hour three of Follow the Money, Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard are joined by Chris Mac to preview the Kentucky Derby and Jonathan Davis to preview the NHL playoff games.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Follow the Money. That's why I always say you always follow.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Paully Howard on VSON.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
It is Follow the Money here on VSON, the Sports
Betty Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings.
We have a very busy hour. Jonathan Davis in studio
coming up in a half an hour NHL with him
starting off this hour with Christmassarro, who is big into
the Ponies horse racing better better Also, you own a horse,
(00:31):
part of a horse as well. Thanks for popping in
studio here early on a Friday.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Problem up early, loving it, feeling good, Ready for a
big weekend a horse racing.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, you love betting this uh with the Ponies. Let's
start with this.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
I've heard so much coverage of the derby so far
this week, as always this week, but I've heard both
sides of the story. With fierceness people making the case
that he's at this horse is absolutely not in the
same case or category as a justified or an American pharaoh.
Other people are saying it does. He kind of has
triple crown written all over it. Which side of the
(01:02):
fencer you won?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
I would say, and as we were talking off air,
I think it's one of the worst derbies I've ever seen,
top to bottom. But there is the one horse that
does stand out is definitely Fierceness. His best race is
four lengths better than anyone in this field. Whether he's
gonna run his best race, obviously, is the big question.
He's thrown in. He romped and his maiden win at Saratoga,
(01:27):
came back to Aqueduct in a Grade one Champagne and
threw in a huge clunker at one to five. He
finished twenty lengths back seventh. Then he comes back and
wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at six at fourteen to
one by six lengths, which is like okay. And then
then he comes back for his first race of twenty
(01:49):
twenty four and in the Holy Bully finished, you know,
a disappointing third, so we're like, okay, here's the Florida Derbys.
You're gonna win. I remember watching it here and it
was a glorified workout. So this horse is either all
in or maybe all out. But his numbers and the
two things I use the most to thoroughgraph and optics thoroughgraph.
(02:09):
He ran a negative three last race, and you mentioned Justify.
He is a giant square in the first quadrant on optics,
in which that means is he's going to the lead
and he's not gonna quit. And he does have a
similar patent as Justify. I'm not saying he's justified, but
if this horse breaks, he's probably gonna win. But I
(02:30):
wouldn't bet him at two to one because what value
is in that. I would maybe obviously gonna use him
in supers tries exact as. But the horse I'm using
to bet to win, which I just bet here is
Forever Young. I locked it in and fixed odds at
plus eleven twenty five. This horse has done nothing wrong.
Five straight wins, five different tracks. Granted the Japanese horse
(02:51):
has never won before, but this horse is something a
little different. He's won with trouble trips, wide trips, and
when he gets in the he explodes. You just won
this UA Derby by like four lengths and the next
horse back was like fIF like twelve of the fifteen lengths.
So a very talented horse. Whether he can come over
(03:11):
from Japan, I'm not sure, but the value is there.
At plus eleven twenty five.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Okay, you're a super player. How you like to play this?
And it's life changing money if you can pop the
super How do you want to play how they want
to do this with the super or exotics?
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Here with the okay backstory again, I'll go back to
the Justify race. I wasn't one hundred percent sure Justify
was gonna win all day long, but when he got
closer to the race, I was one hundred percent sure
he's going to win. So I keyed Justify. And in
this case, if you want to key Fierceness or Forever Young,
you can key that horse in first. Now you could
(03:45):
just say I don't think there's more than five or
six horses that can win based on the numbers. That
would be Sierra Leone, catching Freedom, just a touch, Forever Young, Fierceness,
and maybe this just Steelhorse, which is a long shot,
d Way and Lucas. He ran a decent number last
time out, So you could say, I'm gonna put I
could box all six of those for a dollar. It's
three sixty. That's what makes it super so exciting. It's
(04:07):
a dollar bet, not a ten cent bet where everyone
can get in. You put a million horses in the
in the payoffs are kind of subdued. You have to
spend a dollar, so when you start boxing or adding
extra horses, it really jumps up in price. But what
I like to do is key horse for as second.
So maybe you key fiercest at first and second, then
you key the other five horses that you think might
have a chance, and second and third, and then maybe
(04:29):
you pop in an all and last. You get lucky
because I remember in the Justify race, He's coming down
the stretch and I'm like, I got it, and I
could see second and third I had as well, but
I'm like, who got fourth? Who got fourth? Because there's
so much dirt and you know, slop and kick up
and you can't see the silks. And then I look
back and someone's like, who got fourth? And I'll never
forget it. It was instilled regard and he was eighty five
(04:51):
to one, and I ended up having the super three
times for a dollar and ended up paying twenty. It
was like nineteen eight hundred, So that was like one
of my biggest scores on Derby Day. Yeah, just Justify win. Yeah,
So you gotta get a little you gotta get a
little lucky. Yeah, you were mentioned on Marie like there's
a couple closers with with big prices on a Marie
the seven horse, then the fifteen domestic product with Chad
(05:14):
Brown and Irad probably not gonna win. The numbers aren't
there to win, but the horse is a big closer
and it's not gonna quit, and it's not afraid of
the distance. He might get a piece in third and fourth,
so you have if you have an all in third
and fourth. When you Kia, you know your main horse
in first a second, you can get lucky and you
can have a huge, big, big payout.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
So I've also heard people horse racing betters who do
this all the time, probably on a day to day basis.
They've said this week on Viisen that I don't typically
do the exotics. I'm not gonna do a try, but
for the derby you have to twenty horse fields, so
much money is involved.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
You have to get involved with the exotics.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
You have to. It's mind blowing when there's like three
or four minutes to post and NBC is flashing the pools. Yeah,
and the amount of money and the exotic pools, the
exact pool, the tripool, the super pool, it's just insane.
And I'm also a pick five player to you know,
sometimes to my detriment, because you try to go for
the big score. Some of these pools are going to
(06:11):
be multimillion dollars. The late pick five on Derby day
will be you know, in the millions, and sometimes like
to Justified day, Justify was the big favorite. He wins
a derby. But there was a horse called Funny Duck
that no one had in the pat Damile in a
sloppy day that went off at like eighty to one,
and the pick five you know, was paying out, you know,
hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Oh with all question at that point is you know, if.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
You get one big one, big price, you get to
make a score.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
They also you can find matchups now betting the Derby,
of course, at several different shops and the two shorty
shots on the board Fierceness. You also mentioned Serial Leone
there uh here at circa anyway you could grab Seria
leone at like plus one oh five plus one ten
at last check. We ran that by Johnny Velo yesterday
from DraftKings. He said, I kind of liked the dog
(06:57):
in that matchup.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Yeah, the one. It's you can get it both ways.
There's gonna be a heck of a lot of speed
in this race. Door Knock has to go track, Phantom
is going, Fierceness goes even just the touch is going
to be close to the lead, so there's gonna be
a lot of pace. The last few half miles at
the Derby have been rocket ships, so that does set
up for Sierra Leone. But the problem is he's coming
(07:21):
from buried in the two hole and he's gonna have
to pass every single horse. It's just it's tough to
get to the He might, he might get I like
him to get into the super, but I'm not sure
he's gonna be able to get to the lead. He could,
but it's just he's gonna have to pass every single horse.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
There's so many different ways to bet this, and I
know humans had a guest on who made a great
case against him, Chris Filica also that I bet Doorknock
to finish in last place.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
There could be a cracked hoof angle here.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Yeah, apparently as a cracked hoof. I was at the
Fountain of Youth day at Gulfstream and I happen to
run into this ownership group, and they were just they
had won the Fount of Youth. It was a terrible
there's only five horses that were three scratches at the gate,
and I was like, I'm against this horse the rest
of the way. But this group was just like, we're
going the derby. We're going to the derby. We don't care.
(08:09):
We're in the derby. And it's just like, this horse
is all speed, he doesn't have the numbers, he's in
the worst possible spot in the one spot. He's gonna
go to the lead, and I think this horse has
a good chance to finish last. So any matchup that
you can you can find that's not you know, you
don't have to lay six dollars against them. I would,
I would advise. I haven't really gone through all the matchups.
(08:29):
I know Circa has a bunch posted. I guess, I
guess you can get them. You were saying last possibly
at twelve to one. It's I don't think it's an
awful bet because this horse has to go to the lead,
he's in the worst position in the one hole, and
he's he's gonna be speed and fade and I don't
see him. I don't see him finishing strong at all.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Okay, so which other horses in are you? I guess
to use the common phrase here with horse racing, drawing
a line through, or would actually have a chance to
compete with door knock to finish last?
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Oh, I would say that West Saratoga horse really has
no chance. It's a nice story, Larry. I think he
pronounced his last name Dermit or DRMIDI. He's had cancer
for a long time. He's finally got a Derby runner.
It's really cool. He's got Jesus casting on on the horse.
But the horse really has no shot. The other Japanese
horse I would throw a line through. Funny that the
(09:20):
horse that got in the epic ride twenty one when
Ensino scratch is also coming from Turfway, where Rich Strike
came from, so it's kind of a similar story. It
does have improving numbers. I wouldn't. I don't see it winning,
but you never know. It could be another one of
those crazy, you know, hot paces and a complete meltdown
and some horse from nowhere wins. But I don't see that.
(09:41):
I only think the six horses that could possibly win
would be Sierra Leone just a touch forevery young, catching freedom,
fierceness and maybe maybe outside shot just steal.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
You don't think Anam Marie can win?
Speaker 2 (09:53):
No, I think Anna Marie has a good chance to
get third or fourth because it's another deep closer into
a hot pain. The horse is improving on numbers, but
I just don't think that horse is good enough to
get into the top top two spots. But definitely a
spot third and fourth. But there's nothing wrong with having
fierceness forever young or for every young, fierceness with Autumn
(10:15):
ree third for a try that's gonna it's still gonna
pay well, try box.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I mean, yeah, why do you want to do that?
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Well? Considering I don't think on Marie would would be
able to hit the top two spots, I wouldn't necessarily
box it, okay, But I mean, if if you're playing
a super and you wanted to play, say fierceness in
one for every young and two Autumn maree third and
all and fourth, that's not gonna cost you anything. It's
gost you like twenty bucks, okay, not even eighteen dollars.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
How many bets that you're gonna have.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
I'm gonna have a lot of bets I'm gonna have.
I'm gonna probably play the majority of the pick five's.
I'm definitely gonna play the Oaks Derby double and I'll
be playing I'll be trying to be playing rolling doubles.
For races. I really like there's a horse today at Churchill, Trademark,
friend of mine owned it. Horse for Course. It's the
ten Uh shoot, what race will be end?
Speaker 1 (11:06):
You'll get Yeah, you're gonna.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
We'll find it. But yeah, Horse for Course at Churchill
he ran two zero's on the thoroughgraph. I really think
Trademark has a good shot. He's a decent price, he's
got a nice post. So we'll see.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
All right, we'll get that race.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
On the flip side here, let's follow the money on
vson d Sports Betting Network Professional Better Christmas Serro is
with us. Loves betting on the ponies as well. He
also is big into betting futures.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
He loves it. He dabbles in crossport parlays.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
He has a method to the madness and we will
discuss that next here on VSON.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
Norby time Get the Primer Samage picks, NBA NHL Playoffs,
best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, betting tools, every pick,
every host, every guest, vsen dot Com check it out today.
Race seven Trademark, the ten horse six to one, Chris
Maserro's pick.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
That's today.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
That is today, So get up and Eddi, you're right.
Who wants to give out a favorite? Let's go that's
what you gave out earlier as well. Who do you
like in the Oaks?
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Okay? So the Oaks is very interesting. It's almost more
exciting than the Derby. I think there's five horses that
are all pretty much pretty much the same. You have Thorpedo,
Anna Tarifa, Ways it means just Fyi and Leslie's Rose.
(12:47):
If it's it's supposed to rain today, I guess it's
raining now, so that would kind of upgrade the eight
Tarifa she won over a sloppy track and the Rachel
Alexandra at Fairgrounds early this year. So if we do
have a sloppy track, I mean you kind of have
to upgrade that horse a little. I was on I
was on Ways and Means, which is a Chad Brown
(13:09):
with Tyler Gaff. The owne horse had trouble trip last
time out. I really liked the post position. If you're
looking it's just a tough one. It's it's tough, I mean,
and you can make a case for any of these
five horses. Just FYI, is Bill Mott very impressive if
you've actually seen the horse race, she's you know, a
bigger horse. She had a tough trip last time as well.
(13:31):
So those were the two I was leaning to the
eleven in the thirteen. But if it does rain, you
kind of have to upgrade Jarifa. So if you're gonna
do an Oaks Derby double, maybe you do those three
and maybe with fierceness and forever young. You know, it's
for a dollar, that's six bucks. You can you know,
you can do as much as you want, ten, one
hundred dollar, whatever you want, whatever your whatever your risk
(13:51):
portfolio allows you to do. But I'm definitely gonna be
playing these doubles because the fields are so big, the
pools are so big, the payouts are a lot more
than they usually which it's just fantastic.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
So I gotta be a part of it for sure. Yeah,
so we're gonna get into betting futures here in a minute.
You're also a horse owner, right, Oh yeah, okay, so
can you explain this has it. How long have you
owned it? Has it been worth it so far? How
expensive is it to own a horse?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Well? I got into some you know groups of you know,
horse groups during my last probably like ten years since
I've been really going to Delmar a lot. I got
involved with a couple of different trainers, a couple of
different owners, a couple of different groups. We've had some
big successes, run some stakes races, been some Breeders Cup
races where I've had a piece of the horse and
then we sell, we make some money off them. Then
I got a little, uh you know, a little a
(14:36):
little bit too big for my bridges, and I'd say, yeah,
you know, let me go out of my own try
to you know, jump into some different syndicates and put
a little bit more stake in. So I ended up
with this horse right here. Oh yeah, that's that's Golden Owl,
the mother, and we bred her to blame who was
the two thousand shoot me at eleven or twenty ten
(14:57):
Breeders Cup Classic Champion. So that colt was born about
six weeks ago and standing fine, and they really like
her like him on the farm, and we're hoping either
next year we're gonna get him ready to run or
we're gonna end up, you know, running through the sale
and we're going to make a big profit on him,
which is the you know, naturally the goal. You want
(15:17):
to make money. But it's expensive. It's like a thousand
bucks a month just to keep that little guy fed
and housed and his mother as well.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
I'm sure it's not on the cheap.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
No, no, and remind telling you the story, it reminds me.
Did you watch Luck on HBO with Dustin Hoffman show?
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Yeah, Unfortunately there was a couple of dead tie they
had to end up canceling the show. But that was
a real, real, you know, realistic show. They're at Santa Anita,
use the real jockeys some you know, you know good lingos.
I liked it, Yeah, I liked it.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Okay, you love betting futures as well cross all sports,
and uh, you are still a little bit sour. I think,
I don't know what other word you want to use,
if we can actually use that on air or not.
Regarding career, kimberl and how he finished the month of
April for the Baltimore Orioles.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, on Friday night when he blew the first save,
I knew it was coming, and I just I'm just like,
oh my god, here it is and he he just
I'm texting my dad. I'm like, I'm like, he's gonna
blow it and sharing off. It's a double and no,
it's a you know, he actually walked. The first guy walked.
The next guy why it was somehow was bases loaded.
(16:24):
The only out he got was a wild pitch off
the brick wall, which is they somehow tagged the guy out.
They had to review it. If it's like six minutes.
So I'm like, oh, they're gonna take him out. No, no, no, no,
they leave him in and he you know, he blows.
He blows the save. So I'm like, I'm kind of done.
I'm out of it. And I'm like, well, maybe I can.
I can get back. As long as as long as
they went on Sunday, April most winds April March. As
(16:46):
long as they went on Sunday, I still have a chance.
So I'm going to my friend's his mother passed away.
We're going I'm going to this thing. I got the
thing on my phone. I'm watching it. I'm like, oh
my god, it's happening again. I was. I was just
so mad. I was just so mad that they just
kept putting him in the game. And it's the same
story over and over. He does the thing and he
throws like three balls, he throws one strike, and then
he walks him. Guy throws less than fifty percent strikes.
(17:09):
I was he a closer. So anyways, if he if
they had just not blown one of those saves, I
would have had Orioles most wins, either as a tie
or I don't know if they would have paid full,
but I would have had sixty thousand to Denver to
make the finals, which is you know, I would have
bet the no and just would have been.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
A sure take the money here to win.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Right, So what is your method then too, because you
like to do the cross sports stuff. You had Denver
tied in I think to Yukon winning the national title,
and you do this quite often.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, well right now, A nice ticket I have is
I have Yukon, which already won Denver to make the finals,
to the Orioles to win the division. What I like
to do is try to find value before the value decreases.
Everyone talks about closing line value in games like last night,
me and Polly had Milwaukee had eight and a half.
(17:55):
You know that does this no good, But in a
future parlay you have a lot more time to maneuver it. So,
for example, the other night, I was gonna bet over
JJ McCarty five and a half in draft position. I
really liked it, but like, how much am I really
going to bet on that to make? You know? I mean,
I'm not sure I would say, even take on some
of the apps. Sure, yeah, it's not even that much.
I'm like, I'm gonna bet Denver in the second half
(18:16):
against the Lakers I really like over JJ McCarthy. Let
me find some value on a team I think is
going to drop down in odds. And the night before
the Vancouver goalie had got injured, and I'm looking at
Edmonton's path to the Stanley Cup. Now, they might not
win the Stanley Cup, but if they get to the
Western Conference finals, their odds are going to be a
lot less than seven to one, which is what I got.
(18:38):
So Denver won the second half over JJ McCarty five
and a half, and now for fifteen hundred dollars, I
have Edmonton at plus seven hundred to win forty two thousand.
Now that gives me a lot of maneuverability moving forward.
And as long as you know, they beat the Kings
and as long as they beat Vancouver, I could probably
you know, get a cash out from you know, DraftKings
or whatever. Or I can come by and bet the
(18:59):
no or there's just a lot of a lot of
ways to you know, walk in.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
You can, Yeah, you can monetize the ticket.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
At that point, you're just trying to look for it.
So the ticket I have now Denver to make the finals,
with Yukon already in, with the Orioles to win the division.
The Orioles I have, it's like plus two hundred. I
think are one ninety five and it pays forty three
to one. Well, I thought, I looked at the schedule
and like Baltimore has an easy schedule. I didn't think
the Yankees going to get off to a great stop.
(19:26):
They did, but I go the Orioles are probably going
to be favored to win the division by the time
you know Denver is close to the Western Conference finals.
It gives you more options to take. So now Denver
is in a little bit of a battle. Everyone's on Minnesota,
which I like, Yeah, you must like that, Yeah, I do.
Because everyone is everyone's thinking that they's going to walk
through Denver like they walk through the Suns. Well, I mean,
(19:49):
Anthony Anthony Edwards's fantastic, but no one was really gotting
the guy. I mean, I think KCP is gonna put
a little bit of a stop on him.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Well, they're the champs and they're favorite here.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Yeah, they're on. Yeah, they have the home, they have
the home court, they don't lose there. They have the
altitude factor. I got a text from Matt Ewmans a
couple of nights ago. He's like, Jamal Murray, I'm getting
word that Jamal Murray's hurt and it might not be good.
And I'm just like, oh, don't say that. But then
he dropped over thirty the other nights and closed him out.
Speaker 4 (20:16):
So we met you through Scott Trabuco and Scott was
in studio and Scott hit one of these for two
hundred and twenty thousand dollars unbelievable. He had a golf
in Matsuyama sixty to one when he came out.
Speaker 5 (20:29):
That's so close it.
Speaker 4 (20:30):
Yeah, but this he likes to close with with the
strongest one or like a favorite, like a South Carolina
women to win it a no on Milwaukee, the East,
the yes on Denver, so.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
It's an easy finished.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Well, he had a great bet and it was one
of the best. I mean, obviously you gotta have a
little bit luck involved. But he played a bunch of
long shot golfers the day that Cantley was lee in
the Riviera, and I had I forget who came in second.
I had this guy who came in second, so I
didn't have it. But he he didn't like Cantley, which
is the guy's chokes a lot. So he played ten
different golfers, all its huge odds, and he got matsu Yama,
(21:03):
the longest shot, and he just put him with South
Carolina and Yukon, which ended up being no brainers. And
it pays a quarter million.
Speaker 5 (21:09):
Yeah, a thousand to win two hundred and twenty.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
How do you beat that? I know.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
He put it in for the writers ten bucks if
they'd like.
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Six grand, right or twelve, And then he put it
in for his friend and his friend cashed out.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Yeah, since friend cashed out early, I mean yeah, yeah,
I mean, but I mean how early?
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Like six grand?
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Oh? No, I think he I think he did good. No,
he did good. I think he had more than ten.
I think he was in the tent. I think he
made over ten.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
Okay, so but both you guys like to fire big
on this stuff. Let me let me flip for one
second though. If Ketley wins that thing, he stuck in
ten dimes.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Yeah no, no no no, oh yeah, no no no.
His bets were one hundred oh one hundred was crazy.
Oh for a hot thousand total, yeah, one hundred stand correct.
It's unbelievable. So that's why it's one of the best bets.
One hundred dollars bet. That's why the Future file sixty
six to one. Oh yeah, I said, we know that
the odds. I mean, these guys know what they're doing
to odds. Like it's not just like any anyone could
(22:02):
come and do it, but you gotta have some sort
of skill where you you see an idea where the
odds are going to drop down, like I think edmond
I think Edmondson is like the second favorite to win
the Cup. Now they're not seven to one anymore. And
we made that bet like ten days ago. So that bet,
I granted if Denver didn't cover a second half. You know,
I don't I'm not alive.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
But boy that thirty minutes flew by would get a
follower off you anytime. Christmas Erro with us here, Great stuff, man,
good luck this weekend with the Derby.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
All right, thanks guys, I appreciate it. Had a great time.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Jonathan Davis with us up in studio. Next series XM
covers the NHL. Who does he like tonight? Player props?
Find out who's betting coming up next?
Speaker 4 (22:45):
Get your subscription today, limited time. The annual subscription and
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Speaker 3 (23:16):
Action packed hour. Here to close up shop on a
very very busy week. Thanks to Christmasaro for the last
half an hour. And now we move into the NHL.
Jonathan Davis joins the program. Both guys in studio today.
By the way, PAULI a rarity. I can't thank them enough.
Jonathan has covered the NHL for a long time series XM.
Good to see it today in person.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
How are you?
Speaker 6 (23:36):
Oh great, it's the best time of the year.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
It is.
Speaker 6 (23:39):
We got Game six here in Vegas.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
I mean awesome once you'll get into in a minute
or a couple of minutes.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
Actually, your reaction to last night's game with how the
Bruins performed in a game six loss and moving into
a game seven now is they go back home and
this is just everything how it's aligned now where the
Maple Leafs can't win a game seven, they can't beat
this in the playoffs over the series, but this could
be back to back year's first time ever wore a
team blows a three to one series lead.
Speaker 6 (24:05):
It's mind bowing. You know, Game five, they're outshot eleven
to two in the first period, came out flat, they
look nervous, and then you follow that up in Game
one and it was twelve one, it was fifteen to
one at one point.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Shots.
Speaker 6 (24:18):
I don't understand what we're seeing from Boston. I mean,
they just they look like the scared team and with
a guy like Brad Marshawn leading the way. It's just
it's surprising to me.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
So how does that change for Game seven at home?
All the pressure is going to be on them.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
I don't know how it changes. And the scary thing
here's the thing with Toronto, Like we can talk about
what Boston is going through and their struggles, but Toronto's
DNA has been a team that just they're not playoff ready.
They're not a team that they don't They're not nasty.
They're playing like we've not seen them play in many years.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
At ow physical they were less n yeah.
Speaker 6 (24:53):
And they were physical. You know. Look Max Domi, the
son of Tidomi, you know, more skill than his dad,
but he has been beast since taken over for Austin
Matthews at center. It's they're a different team. And I
love William Melander like that to me that come playoff time,
he's been their best player last couple of years.
Speaker 4 (25:09):
No offense to speak of. The shots at fifteen to
one to start out, nothing, listless effort in the first
period can't do anything, especially if the Toronto stays out
of the box and they're not getting power play opportunities.
Montgomery called out poster knock after the game. What do
you think of that move?
Speaker 6 (25:24):
Well, he has no points in his last two games.
He's got just two goals in the series. This you know,
five on five come playoff time, guys, it's the teams
that have the best power play. For the top five
power play teams in the playoffs are already through. Boston
is the other one. Like, there's not a big difference.
So you look at you look at the game one,
Boston two for five in the power play, they win
(25:46):
Game two, one for two in the power play. They
win Game three, no game sorry, game two. They lost
Game three, they were two for three. Game four they
were one for three. They're zero for four in the
power play in their last two games. It's a big
difference for them. They've got to find a way.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Well, what do you make of the guy in net now?
Speaker 6 (26:03):
For the Maple Leafs, he's their best goal.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
Wall has been awesome, He's been awesome.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
And he's been there. He has been I've talked to
people who know this guy grew up in Saint Louis.
Joseph Wall did they said to me last year best
goal in the system? I said, I thought last year
if that, he would be their starter at some point.
If he was healthy at the beginning of the year,
he would have been their starter, and Samsonov would not
have been the guy he is. The guy looks infallible.
(26:26):
I mean as good as Swayman has been, Wall has
matched him.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Yeah, agreed with that. What do you make the number
now for Game seven?
Speaker 3 (26:33):
As the Bruins are right around minus one thirty five
higher than the series price before Game one actually started,
and the totals at five and a half poull you
bet the under on that number?
Speaker 6 (26:41):
Well, the under? I mean, look, you want to play
it safe. You're the two things that have you know,
death taxes and the under in the series and the
least team total under. I mean, they can't score more
than two goals, even when they win, they can't score
more than two. Now, Mike Palm, I thought, you know,
made a great point. I think on Thursday with you guys,
if you like the Leafs that serious price at plus
three twenty five, I mean, you got to be feeling
(27:03):
really good coming in to the game tonight, into that
Game seven, and if you want, you can still hedge
and come back at Boston at minus one thirty five
wouldn't be a bad way to go if you were
able to do that.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
Do you think this is a mini could be a
Bennington story again, with what he's able to do.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
I can't believe they're throwing him in there.
Speaker 4 (27:20):
The last couple of years and elimination games and he's
three and one with a one four to zero and
a nine to.
Speaker 5 (27:25):
Fifty save percentage.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
The people are is there something there that this could
be like Bennington Part two? If Wall gets hot at
the right time and carries a team to make a
deep run.
Speaker 6 (27:36):
He's just PAULI. He's a really good goalie. He's the
best goalie they have in their system. It could be
like a Bennington thing. It could be, but he's really good,
Like it's not a fluke that he's playing this well.
From the people that I've talked to, they've always said
best goalie in the system.
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Okay, but then why the Samsonov stuff though too, I
would say as well. But and then the thing if
they come back and do this without Matthews, this is
an all timer, Well, what do you think it's more
than an ill? And I know they were breaking it
down on Sportsnet, but that's another wrangle too. If Boston
blows this and Toronto comes back without their best player.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Well what it means to Boston. I you know, sure
Jim Montgomery could be he could be coaching for his job,
as you've been talking about show. Absolutely, it's it is
so surprising that the guy who is the best goalscorer
on the planet right now is not playing and they're
winning and they're winning without them, and they're winning without them.
So but look, I'll go to even what Johnny Lazarus
(28:29):
was saying with you guys in the in the in
the second hour of the show, I mean, is Boston
going back to where they were what we thought they
were going to be, because there's just they're not deep enough,
you know, we always felt like they're not deep down
the middle, and right now they're showing. But it's still
I mean the fact that Pasta has only two goals
in the series, and and he and marshadap and Blank
the last two games, those guys rise to the occasion
(28:52):
and so.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Credit to Toronto for pretty much he's having their careers.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Yeah yeah, but it could be back to back seasons
obviously where they go out like this. So moving forward,
the winner of the series. Do you give them much
of a chance at all against Florida?
Speaker 1 (29:06):
You're not the only one.
Speaker 6 (29:07):
Yeah, I mean, Florida just looks you know, they're so impressive.
I mean think about you know, really the margin of
victory between them and Tampa was pretty much one goal.
I mean until you got to until you got to
the elimination champs good, you know, I think the goals
were like thirteen to twelve something something like that. I mean,
it really wasn't a big difference. But god, Florida is
just so deep and the way that Bob has played,
(29:28):
and you know, the saves that he has made. You know,
I don't don't. I don't give much of a puncher's
chance to either team.
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Okay, now this is great because we talked to Johnny
earlier and everyone you talked to is shocked, and they
bring it up, how are the How's the Best team?
With Hall Mice an underdog gear, except, as Mitch pointed out,
one of the guys we had on Jeff Davis who
makes the number, and Jeff Davis here at CIRCA made Carolina.
Speaker 5 (29:54):
He wanted to go.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
As high as one to eighty in the series. So
he says he's got dollar sixty. Even the people were
one is outrageous. He went higher on the series. I
think the Rangers are gonna have a tough time scoring.
I bet under a game one on Sunday. What do
you think Carolina dollar forty here against the Rangers.
Speaker 6 (30:11):
I like Carolina in the series. I think they are
the better team. You know, look what Carolina has missed
guys in years past is they have not enough depth
up front. And there's three guys on this roster that
weren't on this playoff roster last year. Jake Denzil who
they acquired at the trade deadline, if Jenny kuznets Up
who they acquired at the trade deadline, and Andre Svetchnikov,
who's been a big part of this team for a
(30:32):
number of years. They're all added to this roster. They've
got twelve guys that have scored a goal in the playoffs.
They're deep as heck. And the other thing we have
even mentioned the guy who leads the team in scoring,
and that's Seth Jarvis. This kid, it's a breakout year
for Jarvis. He you know, he's got thirty scored thirty
one goals this year. He had thirty in his previous
two seasons. I think he's a good bet for By
(30:53):
the way, if you like Carolina con Smith, Oh.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
Really, that's the guy that you would go with right nowt.
Speaker 6 (30:58):
Here, right now, with the number you can get on
Jarvis at about plus twenty two hundred.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Absolutely, okay, he'd be the number one guy that you
would bet if you like Carolina right now?
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Yes, yeah, okay, followed by who, well for Carolina, Oh
for anybody?
Speaker 6 (31:11):
No, actually no, I mean they're look there, I got
a laundry list of guys depending on what team you like,
there are guys you know. Look, you've got Connor at
the top of the board at plus five fifty. I
would take Leon dry Title at plus twenty five hundred
right now, or zach Heiman you know, at plus two eighty.
I think dry Title has been the Oilers best player
this year.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
You have been all over him.
Speaker 5 (31:28):
Yeah, yeah, rops have been good.
Speaker 6 (31:29):
Yeah, yes.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
One more thing on this series. I'm concerned about Rangers
scoring offensively. You have the numbers to back it up.
I talked about it earlier. The two wins in the
regular season were two to one and one nothing. But
I was at times their play was lacking against Washington
might have been the worst playoff team ever.
Speaker 5 (31:47):
They were outscored by thirty.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
Seven goals on the season and made the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (31:51):
It's ever happened before.
Speaker 6 (31:52):
Yeah, no it I am concerned. The Rangers have always
been a team that's been top six heavy. Now you
know the addition of a guy like Zach Rosslovic who
came over from Columbus. This is the guy that was
former first round draft pick. He's helped this roster. Vincent
Trochek's been one of the Rangers' best players. But I
just think Carolina is way deeper. And if if Freddy
Anderson can be just good, you just have to be great.
(32:16):
I think I like Carolina.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
What's good? What's good enough?
Speaker 6 (32:20):
He's got to have like a nine oh five nine
ten save percentage, and if he can do that, I
mean he's been he's been phenomenal. I think he only
had like two losses regulation losses down the stretch when
he came back. He's been really good. He hasn't been
the Freddy Anderson that we're used to seeing.
Speaker 4 (32:34):
So the other side is they struggled against the Islanders
that was supposed to be a Cakewalk.
Speaker 6 (32:39):
It wasn't. But you know what, two teams that play
the same style. In my opinion, it's just the Carolina
has more skill. So all I think we're going to
see more of a wider open contest between the Rangers
and Gains than we did against you know, with the
Islanders and the Hurricanes.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
We'll get into the Western Conference coming up next. By
the way, would you call Carolina the best team in
hockey then as of right now? Or is their team
out west that matches them?
Speaker 6 (33:02):
I think Dallas, Dallas, Dallas like it really good.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Okay, we'll continue here. Follow the money on vson D
Sports Betting Network. Jonathan Davis from Series XAM talking NHL playoffs.
We will get into all player props that he likes
for tonight the Dallas Golden Knights Game six. What to
do with this Nashville Vancouver series in game six tonight
as well all next year on.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
DC All right, Sturby time. That's two minutes in sports.
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(33:45):
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only on the DK horse app. Mitch and Paul Jonathan
Davison Studio with the game out here tonight. We start
off with Vancouver and Nashville. And I said this earlier.
(34:06):
I thought Vancouver missed their opportunity when they had a
chance to close out Nashville up won nothing with less
than ten minutes left and they lose two to one.
Now they go on the road Nashville trying to force
a Game seven. Where's the offense coming from right? I
ran it down earlier, but the lack of shots on goals?
Speaker 5 (34:23):
So they win.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
Game one, they're down two to one with eight minutes left,
crazy comeback, they win. Then you get the bad news
on Demco. You lose him a new injury. They lose
Game two, listless performance for one. Game three they win
on the road twelve shots on goal. Game four you
get the miracle where you're down three to one with
two minutes left, you win in overtime. And then what
(34:46):
happened in Game five? I like I played under five
and a half. I got Nashville tickets coming out of
my ears I've been I got seven to one, six
to one, four Mitch, they think we can come back
and win this year, and I think they win tonight
and they force a game seven. What do you want
to do with this series tonight? And moving forward here?
Three to two Vancouver, Game six in Nashville.
Speaker 6 (35:06):
I think the only thing you do is you play
under and you hope that you don't get a bad
break like you did in what in game three?
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Well, the one in Nashville where they do the game,
I mean that was just devastating on both sides.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Yeah, yeah, so that that's the one. Yeah, the game
four that that was, that's the game. Yeah. So I
think under is the only way to go. I mean,
I can't trust either team. There's just so I would
play under and just yeah and hope you don't get
a bad break.
Speaker 3 (35:31):
It's one of those things that if you bet the
under and you lose, it's like, okay, so what because
it's like me last night, I had the under first
half nicks and seventy six ers. It took seventeen points
in the second quarter from Buddy Healed. Okay, he's blazing hot.
Nothing you can do about that, right, It just happens
and I lost a bet, I'll move on.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
Edmonton should take out the winner.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
No, yeah, absolutely, this team, this team is on a mission.
You know, I remember the postgame interviews after they lost
to Vegas last year. I've saved them because I want
to use them for my radio show. Dry Title is
crying like he's he's fighting back tears when they got eliminated.
McDavid is talking about how it's unacceptable, like you're gonna
(36:10):
go through it, but we're not going through it again.
They're on a mission. And they played that series against
Los Angeles. They had no respect for the Kings. You
think about the one nothing game, but they won game
in game four, they went up one nothing, and after
that they didn't even try to score again. Yeah, they
didn't try. Every time they got the puck, just dump
it out and because they kind of felt like if
(36:32):
if LA scores, we'll go up to one. It was
the same thing in game in game five. They just
don't care, like they know they're better.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
Also, what do they file away from earlier this year
when Vancouver really took it to them.
Speaker 6 (36:43):
Oh my god, Dry Title and McDavid have talked about,
you know, they circled those games. They they were humiliated
and if they get Vancouver, Vancouver's in big trouble. And
I think, look, they've dominated Nashville. McDavid and dry title
have feasted on Nashville over the years. This is this
Oilers team. The thing with Edmonton is they're built so
(37:04):
much better than they've been in years past. They've got
guys that will be nasty and Dreycidle to me, I
think he's been Edmonton's best player at both ends of
the ice. He has been relentless, just absolutely relent and you've.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
Been playing his points prop over one and a half
every game.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
And it started off at like plus one seventy five
ninety five you got okay, very good, and then it
was it came but it was still like plus one
fifty five. And he's going over every game. But I
think won so far.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
Every game but one. Yeah, so sh don't say it
too loud.
Speaker 3 (37:34):
So you would expect them then to win and defeat
the winner, like Paul said of Vancouver and Nashville and
the other first of all, like tonight is game six
out here Dallas and the Golden Knights. It was basically
a pick him when we got here this morning, money
coming in the stars. You called him the best team
in maybe hockey or earlier in this interview. Do you
(37:55):
like him to finish him off tonight?
Speaker 6 (37:57):
You know, I'll tell you this is kind of hard
for me because I'm a big Vegas fan. Like it's hard,
but I just think Vegas is Look this Vegas team again.
The problem with Vegas for me, guys is that they've
been a forty minute team. I think in this series,
for the most part, Dallas wears them down. I don't
want to think that Vegas can go away because I
just think there's so much talent and I love the
way that Jack Eigel has played. But I would probably
(38:21):
just again bet the under, although you know it's interesting.
You know you're seeing that the over is getting hammered.
At least I was looking at the bets before he
came on. Sixty nine percent bets, ninety percent money on
the over. But it hasn't moved off five and a
half because I don't think. I don't think the oddsmakers
want to move it off five and a half and
go to six. They get crushed on the under.
Speaker 4 (38:40):
I think elimination games always scary as you see goalie
comes out, he stays out. But I didn't understand the
goalie change by Cassidy in the last game. And the
ice has been tilted here. I mean the total domination
of Dow. The home team's only won one game in
the series, but the domination in game three. Thompson stand
on his head, and then you lose the other home
game after that, and then Stone scores right away on
(39:02):
the power play in game five, and they get one
goal the rest of the way, and then the ridiculous
penalty as well. So I think Dallas takes them out
tonight as well and sends them home, and then we
get that Dallas Colorado matchup.
Speaker 5 (39:14):
What do you want to do with an eicle prop?
Speaker 6 (39:15):
All right, So Ikele over a half points got points
in every game, but you can't bet it on its
own because it's like minus two something. So I think
if you take Ikele over a half point and combine
that with over three and a half shots on goal,
you can get that at plus money. I think that's
a good way to go. Michael's been their best player.
He's gonna do everything in his power for this team
not to lose and force a Game seven and the
(39:37):
other prop is why Johnston the kid for Dallas over
half a point? Yeah? I mean this. You know, here's
the thing with Dallas. You take a look, talk about
a team that's kind of blended in youth and veterans
because you're young. You've got guys like Johnston, and you've
got Jason Robertson, You've got Stankhovin, and then you've got
Ben and Sagan and the Vets are still there and
(39:59):
it's a great common But I love why Johnson three goals,
five points leads the team in score.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
What is your level of confidence with Ottinger in net?
Mike Paul was saying the other day he likes Dallas,
but he has to really question Ottinger.
Speaker 6 (40:12):
But you can't after the first game, I don't think
I think he's kind of third period.
Speaker 5 (40:16):
Yeah, he shut him down to the third.
Speaker 6 (40:18):
Yeah, I mean the safety he made a big save
on Stevenson on the breakaway. That was a groin pull save. Paul,
You you ever tried one of those?
Speaker 5 (40:24):
Yes, plenty of issues, right, What.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Are the Knights to win net? Then tonight is it
gonna Is it gonna be Hilligan?
Speaker 6 (40:31):
I would think it will. I mean why would he
do that? I don't know. It was baffling because Logan
people will.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
People who cover the team that I follow on X
were like, well, here you go. It looks like it's
gonna and then just the responses were like, are you
kidding me?
Speaker 1 (40:46):
What is going on here? And nobody had an answer
for it.
Speaker 6 (40:48):
Well, you think about Logan Hill or Logan Logan Hill. Aiden.
Hill's last game before the playoffs was a stinker against
Anaheim that forced him to play Dallas in round one,
So it's like, you know, Vegas did everything they could
all season long to get this guy to be number one.
I don't know, but look, it wasn't the only move
that Cassidy made. He put all of his lines in
a blender for Game five. So overall, should we be
(41:11):
surprised that he went to Hill? I guess not. And
and he wasn't the reason why they lost game game
five either. He played, He played well, probably played his
best game in two months.
Speaker 4 (41:19):
We'd timing what are you hearing on demco if Vancouver advances?
Speaker 6 (41:23):
You know, it's double secret probation on that one. There.
I have no idea. I mean, he's traveling with the
team and my understanding is part of that is also
due to the fact that he and de Smith have
a really good relationship. Now, I don't know if the
Smith plays, I wouldn't I wouldn't go off to sleeve Off's
the way he's played.
Speaker 5 (41:40):
It wouldn't play the Smith tonight.
Speaker 6 (41:42):
No, wow, Okay, the kids played. Siels has played really well.
There's no reason. You know, you got to score, like
if you're Vancouver score you know, you think about it,
the lose to one the guy that scores in the
key to Zadoroff not you know, we're not talking about
Peterson or Miller. You know they've got to find a way,
like you know, you talked about it. They've had Vancouver,
they had just you know, two power play goals in
(42:03):
one game to win a game. They can't score five
on five.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
Bitch is big on Colorado and I hope we get
Colorado Edmonton. Beautiful call by you on hellabuck who was
just awful. And that's going back like a one in
eight record. Now was last nine playoff games? Did you
see what he said in his exit interview?
Speaker 1 (42:19):
I did? Did you see that? I did?
Speaker 5 (42:20):
I didn't see most of the goals he said, Yeah,
So what you're.
Speaker 3 (42:23):
Doing that to be honest, he goes, I was playing,
I was playing my best hockey in my career.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Yeah, and then I couldn't see any of the goals.
Speaker 5 (42:30):
They're a freight train.
Speaker 4 (42:31):
I mean, that is that's an unbelievable comment. He said, Well,
by what they did and they scored five goals on
him in every game, He's gonna win to Vestna.
Speaker 6 (42:38):
He will. And McKinnon talked about the fact that when
they got eliminated, he did his he was doing his
on ice interview and he said, that's seven to nothing
game absolutely humiliated them and from that point on, he said,
that was a real kick in the butt and it
was interesting. Pete de Boorr referenced it. He said he
watched them play against Vegas the next day and he said,
that's a different team, and they are a different team.
(42:58):
You know, you think about like Vala Chushkin's got seven
goals to lead the team. This is a guy that
back in twenty eighteen didn't score a goal in fifty
seven games. You know, it's it's not you know, he's
got seven. Leknon's got five, McKinnon, mccarr and rant and
all have two.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
All right, So as we close up here, your best
bet like tonight or tomorrow moving forward would be what.
Speaker 6 (43:19):
Uh, well, best bet would be Toronto Boston under five.
That's that's the best. Okay, I agree?
Speaker 1 (43:24):
And the best Stanley Cup final would.
Speaker 6 (43:26):
Be would be Dallas Carolina.
Speaker 1 (43:29):
That would be the best one.
Speaker 6 (43:30):
Well, I shouldn't say that.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
Well, I don't know entertainment.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
What's no er to me? I get it.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Dallas is awesome. I think Colorado Edmonton would be the
absolute nuts.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Well Western Conference, That's what I'm saying. To go to
the to go to the Cup.
Speaker 6 (43:44):
Yeah, that would be yeah from oh yeah, back and forth.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
What if Edmonton plays Toronto in the Cup? Canada finally
ends it? What's what grade did you give? And Diamo
the steakhouse at the Deep oh a plus a plush
the station and the Zip sace.
Speaker 6 (43:57):
Zip sauce. You gotta have the Zip sauce.
Speaker 1 (43:59):
Go to college. Depend on X he's at West Coast
h k Y. That'll do it. Stay tuned.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
A numbers game is next. You can listen to decent
dot com prush it this weekend.
Speaker 4 (44:06):
We'll see you
Follow the Money. That's why I always say you always follow.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Yeah, this is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and
Paully Howard on VSON.
Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome in.
Speaker 3 (00:10):
It is Follow the Money here on VSON, the Sports
Betty Network. This show is brought to you by DraftKings.
We have a very busy hour. Jonathan Davis in studio
coming up in a half an hour NHL with him
starting off this hour with Christmassarro, who is big into
the Ponies horse racing better better Also, you own a horse,
(00:31):
part of a horse as well. Thanks for popping in
studio here early on a Friday.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Problem up early, loving it, feeling good, Ready for a
big weekend a horse racing.
Speaker 1 (00:38):
Yeah, you love betting this uh with the Ponies. Let's
start with this.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
I've heard so much coverage of the derby so far
this week, as always this week, but I've heard both
sides of the story. With fierceness people making the case
that he's at this horse is absolutely not in the
same case or category as a justified or an American pharaoh.
Other people are saying it does. He kind of has
triple crown written all over it. Which side of the
(01:02):
fencer you won?
Speaker 2 (01:03):
I would say, and as we were talking off air,
I think it's one of the worst derbies I've ever seen,
top to bottom. But there is the one horse that
does stand out is definitely Fierceness. His best race is
four lengths better than anyone in this field. Whether he's
gonna run his best race, obviously, is the big question.
He's thrown in. He romped and his maiden win at Saratoga,
(01:27):
came back to Aqueduct in a Grade one Champagne and
threw in a huge clunker at one to five. He
finished twenty lengths back seventh. Then he comes back and
wins the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at six at fourteen to
one by six lengths, which is like okay. And then
then he comes back for his first race of twenty
(01:49):
twenty four and in the Holy Bully finished, you know,
a disappointing third, so we're like, okay, here's the Florida Derbys.
You're gonna win. I remember watching it here and it
was a glorified workout. So this horse is either all
in or maybe all out. But his numbers and the
two things I use the most to thoroughgraph and optics thoroughgraph.
(02:09):
He ran a negative three last race, and you mentioned Justify.
He is a giant square in the first quadrant on optics,
in which that means is he's going to the lead
and he's not gonna quit. And he does have a
similar patent as Justify. I'm not saying he's justified, but
if this horse breaks, he's probably gonna win. But I
(02:30):
wouldn't bet him at two to one because what value
is in that. I would maybe obviously gonna use him
in supers tries exact as. But the horse I'm using
to bet to win, which I just bet here is
Forever Young. I locked it in and fixed odds at
plus eleven twenty five. This horse has done nothing wrong.
Five straight wins, five different tracks. Granted the Japanese horse
(02:51):
has never won before, but this horse is something a
little different. He's won with trouble trips, wide trips, and
when he gets in the he explodes. You just won
this UA Derby by like four lengths and the next
horse back was like fIF like twelve of the fifteen lengths.
So a very talented horse. Whether he can come over
(03:11):
from Japan, I'm not sure, but the value is there.
At plus eleven twenty five.
Speaker 4 (03:15):
Okay, you're a super player. How you like to play this?
And it's life changing money if you can pop the
super How do you want to play how they want
to do this with the super or exotics?
Speaker 2 (03:25):
Here with the okay backstory again, I'll go back to
the Justify race. I wasn't one hundred percent sure Justify
was gonna win all day long, but when he got
closer to the race, I was one hundred percent sure
he's going to win. So I keyed Justify. And in
this case, if you want to key Fierceness or Forever Young,
you can key that horse in first. Now you could
(03:45):
just say I don't think there's more than five or
six horses that can win based on the numbers. That
would be Sierra Leone, catching Freedom, just a touch, Forever Young, Fierceness,
and maybe this just Steelhorse, which is a long shot,
d Way and Lucas. He ran a decent number last
time out, So you could say, I'm gonna put I
could box all six of those for a dollar. It's
three sixty. That's what makes it super so exciting. It's
(04:07):
a dollar bet, not a ten cent bet where everyone
can get in. You put a million horses in the
in the payoffs are kind of subdued. You have to
spend a dollar, so when you start boxing or adding
extra horses, it really jumps up in price. But what
I like to do is key horse for as second.
So maybe you key fiercest at first and second, then
you key the other five horses that you think might
have a chance, and second and third, and then maybe
(04:29):
you pop in an all and last. You get lucky
because I remember in the Justify race, He's coming down
the stretch and I'm like, I got it, and I
could see second and third I had as well, but
I'm like, who got fourth? Who got fourth? Because there's
so much dirt and you know, slop and kick up
and you can't see the silks. And then I look
back and someone's like, who got fourth? And I'll never
forget it. It was instilled regard and he was eighty five
(04:51):
to one, and I ended up having the super three
times for a dollar and ended up paying twenty. It
was like nineteen eight hundred, So that was like one
of my biggest scores on Derby Day. Yeah, just Justify win. Yeah,
So you gotta get a little you gotta get a
little lucky. Yeah, you were mentioned on Marie like there's
a couple closers with with big prices on a Marie
the seven horse, then the fifteen domestic product with Chad
(05:14):
Brown and Irad probably not gonna win. The numbers aren't
there to win, but the horse is a big closer
and it's not gonna quit, and it's not afraid of
the distance. He might get a piece in third and fourth,
so you have if you have an all in third
and fourth. When you Kia, you know your main horse
in first a second, you can get lucky and you
can have a huge, big, big payout.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
So I've also heard people horse racing betters who do
this all the time, probably on a day to day basis.
They've said this week on Viisen that I don't typically
do the exotics. I'm not gonna do a try, but
for the derby you have to twenty horse fields, so
much money is involved.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
You have to get involved with the exotics.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
You have to. It's mind blowing when there's like three
or four minutes to post and NBC is flashing the pools. Yeah,
and the amount of money and the exotic pools, the
exact pool, the tripool, the super pool, it's just insane.
And I'm also a pick five player to you know,
sometimes to my detriment, because you try to go for
the big score. Some of these pools are going to
(06:11):
be multimillion dollars. The late pick five on Derby day
will be you know, in the millions, and sometimes like
to Justified day, Justify was the big favorite. He wins
a derby. But there was a horse called Funny Duck
that no one had in the pat Damile in a
sloppy day that went off at like eighty to one,
and the pick five you know, was paying out, you know,
hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Oh with all question at that point is you know, if.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
You get one big one, big price, you get to
make a score.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
They also you can find matchups now betting the Derby,
of course, at several different shops and the two shorty
shots on the board Fierceness. You also mentioned Serial Leone
there uh here at circa anyway you could grab Seria
leone at like plus one oh five plus one ten
at last check. We ran that by Johnny Velo yesterday
from DraftKings. He said, I kind of liked the dog
(06:57):
in that matchup.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
Yeah, the one. It's you can get it both ways.
There's gonna be a heck of a lot of speed
in this race. Door Knock has to go track, Phantom
is going, Fierceness goes even just the touch is going
to be close to the lead, so there's gonna be
a lot of pace. The last few half miles at
the Derby have been rocket ships, so that does set
up for Sierra Leone. But the problem is he's coming
(07:21):
from buried in the two hole and he's gonna have
to pass every single horse. It's just it's tough to
get to the He might, he might get I like
him to get into the super, but I'm not sure
he's gonna be able to get to the lead. He could,
but it's just he's gonna have to pass every single horse.
Speaker 4 (07:36):
There's so many different ways to bet this, and I
know humans had a guest on who made a great
case against him, Chris Filica also that I bet Doorknock
to finish in last place.
Speaker 5 (07:46):
There could be a cracked hoof angle here.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
Yeah, apparently as a cracked hoof. I was at the
Fountain of Youth day at Gulfstream and I happen to
run into this ownership group, and they were just they
had won the Fount of Youth. It was a terrible
there's only five horses that were three scratches at the gate,
and I was like, I'm against this horse the rest
of the way. But this group was just like, we're
going the derby. We're going to the derby. We don't care.
(08:09):
We're in the derby. And it's just like, this horse
is all speed, he doesn't have the numbers, he's in
the worst possible spot in the one spot. He's gonna
go to the lead, and I think this horse has
a good chance to finish last. So any matchup that
you can you can find that's not you know, you
don't have to lay six dollars against them. I would,
I would advise. I haven't really gone through all the matchups.
(08:29):
I know Circa has a bunch posted. I guess, I
guess you can get them. You were saying last possibly
at twelve to one. It's I don't think it's an
awful bet because this horse has to go to the lead,
he's in the worst position in the one hole, and
he's he's gonna be speed and fade and I don't
see him. I don't see him finishing strong at all.
Speaker 3 (08:48):
Okay, so which other horses in are you? I guess
to use the common phrase here with horse racing, drawing
a line through, or would actually have a chance to
compete with door knock to finish last?
Speaker 2 (08:58):
Oh, I would say that West Saratoga horse really has
no chance. It's a nice story, Larry. I think he
pronounced his last name Dermit or DRMIDI. He's had cancer
for a long time. He's finally got a Derby runner.
It's really cool. He's got Jesus casting on on the horse.
But the horse really has no shot. The other Japanese
horse I would throw a line through. Funny that the
(09:20):
horse that got in the epic ride twenty one when
Ensino scratch is also coming from Turfway, where Rich Strike
came from, so it's kind of a similar story. It
does have improving numbers. I wouldn't. I don't see it winning,
but you never know. It could be another one of
those crazy, you know, hot paces and a complete meltdown
and some horse from nowhere wins. But I don't see that.
(09:41):
I only think the six horses that could possibly win
would be Sierra Leone just a touch forevery young, catching freedom,
fierceness and maybe maybe outside shot just steal.
Speaker 1 (09:51):
You don't think Anam Marie can win?
Speaker 2 (09:53):
No, I think Anna Marie has a good chance to
get third or fourth because it's another deep closer into
a hot pain. The horse is improving on numbers, but
I just don't think that horse is good enough to
get into the top top two spots. But definitely a
spot third and fourth. But there's nothing wrong with having
fierceness forever young or for every young, fierceness with Autumn
(10:15):
ree third for a try that's gonna it's still gonna
pay well, try box.
Speaker 1 (10:20):
I mean, yeah, why do you want to do that?
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Well? Considering I don't think on Marie would would be
able to hit the top two spots, I wouldn't necessarily
box it, okay, But I mean, if if you're playing
a super and you wanted to play, say fierceness in
one for every young and two Autumn maree third and
all and fourth, that's not gonna cost you anything. It's
gost you like twenty bucks, okay, not even eighteen dollars.
Speaker 1 (10:43):
How many bets that you're gonna have.
Speaker 2 (10:44):
I'm gonna have a lot of bets I'm gonna have.
I'm gonna probably play the majority of the pick five's.
I'm definitely gonna play the Oaks Derby double and I'll
be playing I'll be trying to be playing rolling doubles.
For races. I really like there's a horse today at Churchill, Trademark,
friend of mine owned it. Horse for Course. It's the
ten Uh shoot, what race will be end?
Speaker 1 (11:06):
You'll get Yeah, you're gonna.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
We'll find it. But yeah, Horse for Course at Churchill
he ran two zero's on the thoroughgraph. I really think
Trademark has a good shot. He's a decent price, he's
got a nice post. So we'll see.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
All right, we'll get that race.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
On the flip side here, let's follow the money on
vson d Sports Betting Network Professional Better Christmas Serro is
with us. Loves betting on the ponies as well. He
also is big into betting futures.
Speaker 1 (11:29):
He loves it. He dabbles in crossport parlays.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
He has a method to the madness and we will
discuss that next here on VSON.
Speaker 4 (11:59):
Norby time Get the Primer Samage picks, NBA NHL Playoffs,
best bets, betting splits, exclusive articles, betting tools, every pick,
every host, every guest, vsen dot Com check it out today.
Race seven Trademark, the ten horse six to one, Chris
Maserro's pick.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
That's today.
Speaker 4 (12:18):
That is today, So get up and Eddi, you're right.
Who wants to give out a favorite? Let's go that's
what you gave out earlier as well. Who do you
like in the Oaks?
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Okay? So the Oaks is very interesting. It's almost more
exciting than the Derby. I think there's five horses that
are all pretty much pretty much the same. You have Thorpedo,
Anna Tarifa, Ways it means just Fyi and Leslie's Rose.
(12:47):
If it's it's supposed to rain today, I guess it's
raining now, so that would kind of upgrade the eight
Tarifa she won over a sloppy track and the Rachel
Alexandra at Fairgrounds early this year. So if we do
have a sloppy track, I mean you kind of have
to upgrade that horse a little. I was on I
was on Ways and Means, which is a Chad Brown
(13:09):
with Tyler Gaff. The owne horse had trouble trip last
time out. I really liked the post position. If you're
looking it's just a tough one. It's it's tough, I mean,
and you can make a case for any of these
five horses. Just FYI, is Bill Mott very impressive if
you've actually seen the horse race, she's you know, a
bigger horse. She had a tough trip last time as well.
(13:31):
So those were the two I was leaning to the
eleven in the thirteen. But if it does rain, you
kind of have to upgrade Jarifa. So if you're gonna
do an Oaks Derby double, maybe you do those three
and maybe with fierceness and forever young. You know, it's
for a dollar, that's six bucks. You can you know,
you can do as much as you want, ten, one
hundred dollar, whatever you want, whatever your whatever your risk
(13:51):
portfolio allows you to do. But I'm definitely gonna be
playing these doubles because the fields are so big, the
pools are so big, the payouts are a lot more
than they usually which it's just fantastic.
Speaker 3 (14:01):
So I gotta be a part of it for sure. Yeah,
so we're gonna get into betting futures here in a minute.
You're also a horse owner, right, Oh yeah, okay, so
can you explain this has it. How long have you
owned it? Has it been worth it so far? How
expensive is it to own a horse?
Speaker 2 (14:14):
Well? I got into some you know groups of you know,
horse groups during my last probably like ten years since
I've been really going to Delmar a lot. I got
involved with a couple of different trainers, a couple of
different owners, a couple of different groups. We've had some
big successes, run some stakes races, been some Breeders Cup
races where I've had a piece of the horse and
then we sell, we make some money off them. Then
I got a little, uh you know, a little a
(14:36):
little bit too big for my bridges, and I'd say, yeah,
you know, let me go out of my own try
to you know, jump into some different syndicates and put
a little bit more stake in. So I ended up
with this horse right here. Oh yeah, that's that's Golden Owl,
the mother, and we bred her to blame who was
the two thousand shoot me at eleven or twenty ten
(14:57):
Breeders Cup Classic Champion. So that colt was born about
six weeks ago and standing fine, and they really like
her like him on the farm, and we're hoping either
next year we're gonna get him ready to run or
we're gonna end up, you know, running through the sale
and we're going to make a big profit on him,
which is the you know, naturally the goal. You want
(15:17):
to make money. But it's expensive. It's like a thousand
bucks a month just to keep that little guy fed
and housed and his mother as well.
Speaker 1 (15:24):
I'm sure it's not on the cheap.
Speaker 4 (15:26):
No, no, and remind telling you the story, it reminds me.
Did you watch Luck on HBO with Dustin Hoffman show?
Speaker 2 (15:35):
Yeah, Unfortunately there was a couple of dead tie they
had to end up canceling the show. But that was
a real, real, you know, realistic show. They're at Santa Anita,
use the real jockeys some you know, you know good lingos.
I liked it, Yeah, I liked it.
Speaker 3 (15:49):
Okay, you love betting futures as well cross all sports,
and uh, you are still a little bit sour. I think,
I don't know what other word you want to use,
if we can actually use that on air or not.
Regarding career, kimberl and how he finished the month of
April for the Baltimore Orioles.
Speaker 2 (16:03):
Yeah, on Friday night when he blew the first save,
I knew it was coming, and I just I'm just like,
oh my god, here it is and he he just
I'm texting my dad. I'm like, I'm like, he's gonna
blow it and sharing off. It's a double and no,
it's a you know, he actually walked. The first guy walked.
The next guy why it was somehow was bases loaded.
(16:24):
The only out he got was a wild pitch off
the brick wall, which is they somehow tagged the guy out.
They had to review it. If it's like six minutes.
So I'm like, oh, they're gonna take him out. No, no, no, no,
they leave him in and he you know, he blows.
He blows the save. So I'm like, I'm kind of done.
I'm out of it. And I'm like, well, maybe I can.
I can get back. As long as as long as
they went on Sunday, April most winds April March. As
(16:46):
long as they went on Sunday, I still have a chance.
So I'm going to my friend's his mother passed away.
We're going I'm going to this thing. I got the
thing on my phone. I'm watching it. I'm like, oh
my god, it's happening again. I was. I was just
so mad. I was just so mad that they just
kept putting him in the game. And it's the same
story over and over. He does the thing and he
throws like three balls, he throws one strike, and then
he walks him. Guy throws less than fifty percent strikes.
(17:09):
I was he a closer. So anyways, if he if
they had just not blown one of those saves, I
would have had Orioles most wins, either as a tie
or I don't know if they would have paid full,
but I would have had sixty thousand to Denver to
make the finals, which is you know, I would have
bet the no and just would have been.
Speaker 1 (17:24):
A sure take the money here to win.
Speaker 2 (17:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
Right, So what is your method then too, because you
like to do the cross sports stuff. You had Denver
tied in I think to Yukon winning the national title,
and you do this quite often.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Yeah, well right now, A nice ticket I have is
I have Yukon, which already won Denver to make the finals,
to the Orioles to win the division. What I like
to do is try to find value before the value decreases.
Everyone talks about closing line value in games like last night,
me and Polly had Milwaukee had eight and a half.
(17:55):
You know that does this no good, But in a
future parlay you have a lot more time to maneuver it. So,
for example, the other night, I was gonna bet over
JJ McCarty five and a half in draft position. I
really liked it, but like, how much am I really
going to bet on that to make? You know? I mean,
I'm not sure I would say, even take on some
of the apps. Sure, yeah, it's not even that much.
I'm like, I'm gonna bet Denver in the second half
(18:16):
against the Lakers I really like over JJ McCarthy. Let
me find some value on a team I think is
going to drop down in odds. And the night before
the Vancouver goalie had got injured, and I'm looking at
Edmonton's path to the Stanley Cup. Now, they might not
win the Stanley Cup, but if they get to the
Western Conference finals, their odds are going to be a
lot less than seven to one, which is what I got.
(18:38):
So Denver won the second half over JJ McCarty five
and a half, and now for fifteen hundred dollars, I
have Edmonton at plus seven hundred to win forty two thousand.
Now that gives me a lot of maneuverability moving forward.
And as long as you know, they beat the Kings
and as long as they beat Vancouver, I could probably
you know, get a cash out from you know, DraftKings
or whatever. Or I can come by and bet the
(18:59):
no or there's just a lot of a lot of
ways to you know, walk in.
Speaker 1 (19:03):
You can, Yeah, you can monetize the ticket.
Speaker 2 (19:05):
At that point, you're just trying to look for it.
So the ticket I have now Denver to make the finals,
with Yukon already in, with the Orioles to win the division.
The Orioles I have, it's like plus two hundred. I
think are one ninety five and it pays forty three
to one. Well, I thought, I looked at the schedule
and like Baltimore has an easy schedule. I didn't think
the Yankees going to get off to a great stop.
(19:26):
They did, but I go the Orioles are probably going
to be favored to win the division by the time
you know Denver is close to the Western Conference finals.
It gives you more options to take. So now Denver
is in a little bit of a battle. Everyone's on Minnesota,
which I like, Yeah, you must like that, Yeah, I do.
Because everyone is everyone's thinking that they's going to walk
through Denver like they walk through the Suns. Well, I mean,
(19:49):
Anthony Anthony Edwards's fantastic, but no one was really gotting
the guy. I mean, I think KCP is gonna put
a little bit of a stop on him.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
Well, they're the champs and they're favorite here.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Yeah, they're on. Yeah, they have the home, they have
the home court, they don't lose there. They have the
altitude factor. I got a text from Matt Ewmans a
couple of nights ago. He's like, Jamal Murray, I'm getting
word that Jamal Murray's hurt and it might not be good.
And I'm just like, oh, don't say that. But then
he dropped over thirty the other nights and closed him out.
Speaker 4 (20:16):
So we met you through Scott Trabuco and Scott was
in studio and Scott hit one of these for two
hundred and twenty thousand dollars unbelievable. He had a golf
in Matsuyama sixty to one when he came out.
Speaker 5 (20:29):
That's so close it.
Speaker 4 (20:30):
Yeah, but this he likes to close with with the
strongest one or like a favorite, like a South Carolina
women to win it a no on Milwaukee, the East,
the yes on Denver, so.
Speaker 2 (20:40):
It's an easy finished.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
Yes.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Well, he had a great bet and it was one
of the best. I mean, obviously you gotta have a
little bit luck involved. But he played a bunch of
long shot golfers the day that Cantley was lee in
the Riviera, and I had I forget who came in second.
I had this guy who came in second, so I
didn't have it. But he he didn't like Cantley, which
is the guy's chokes a lot. So he played ten
different golfers, all its huge odds, and he got matsu Yama,
(21:03):
the longest shot, and he just put him with South
Carolina and Yukon, which ended up being no brainers. And
it pays a quarter million.
Speaker 5 (21:09):
Yeah, a thousand to win two hundred and twenty.
Speaker 2 (21:12):
How do you beat that? I know.
Speaker 5 (21:13):
He put it in for the writers ten bucks if
they'd like.
Speaker 4 (21:16):
Six grand, right or twelve, And then he put it
in for his friend and his friend cashed out.
Speaker 2 (21:21):
Yeah, since friend cashed out early, I mean yeah, yeah,
I mean, but I mean how early?
Speaker 5 (21:27):
Like six grand?
Speaker 2 (21:28):
Oh? No, I think he I think he did good. No,
he did good. I think he had more than ten.
I think he was in the tent. I think he
made over ten.
Speaker 3 (21:34):
Okay, so but both you guys like to fire big
on this stuff. Let me let me flip for one
second though. If Ketley wins that thing, he stuck in
ten dimes.
Speaker 2 (21:41):
Yeah no, no no no, oh yeah, no no no.
His bets were one hundred oh one hundred was crazy.
Oh for a hot thousand total, yeah, one hundred stand correct.
It's unbelievable. So that's why it's one of the best bets.
One hundred dollars bet. That's why the Future file sixty
six to one. Oh yeah, I said, we know that
the odds. I mean, these guys know what they're doing
to odds. Like it's not just like any anyone could
(22:02):
come and do it, but you gotta have some sort
of skill where you you see an idea where the
odds are going to drop down, like I think edmond
I think Edmondson is like the second favorite to win
the Cup. Now they're not seven to one anymore. And
we made that bet like ten days ago. So that bet,
I granted if Denver didn't cover a second half. You know,
I don't I'm not alive.
Speaker 3 (22:19):
But boy that thirty minutes flew by would get a
follower off you anytime. Christmas Erro with us here, Great stuff, man,
good luck this weekend with the Derby.
Speaker 2 (22:25):
All right, thanks guys, I appreciate it. Had a great time.
Speaker 3 (22:27):
Jonathan Davis with us up in studio. Next series XM
covers the NHL. Who does he like tonight? Player props?
Find out who's betting coming up next?
Speaker 4 (22:45):
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(23:07):
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Speaker 3 (23:16):
Action packed hour. Here to close up shop on a
very very busy week. Thanks to Christmasaro for the last
half an hour. And now we move into the NHL.
Jonathan Davis joins the program. Both guys in studio today.
By the way, PAULI a rarity. I can't thank them enough.
Jonathan has covered the NHL for a long time series XM.
Good to see it today in person.
Speaker 1 (23:35):
How are you?
Speaker 6 (23:36):
Oh great, it's the best time of the year.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
It is.
Speaker 6 (23:39):
We got Game six here in Vegas.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
I mean awesome once you'll get into in a minute
or a couple of minutes.
Speaker 3 (23:44):
Actually, your reaction to last night's game with how the
Bruins performed in a game six loss and moving into
a game seven now is they go back home and
this is just everything how it's aligned now where the
Maple Leafs can't win a game seven, they can't beat
this in the playoffs over the series, but this could
be back to back year's first time ever wore a
team blows a three to one series lead.
Speaker 6 (24:05):
It's mind bowing. You know, Game five, they're outshot eleven
to two in the first period, came out flat, they
look nervous, and then you follow that up in Game
one and it was twelve one, it was fifteen to
one at one point.
Speaker 2 (24:17):
Shots.
Speaker 6 (24:18):
I don't understand what we're seeing from Boston. I mean,
they just they look like the scared team and with
a guy like Brad Marshawn leading the way. It's just
it's surprising to me.
Speaker 1 (24:27):
So how does that change for Game seven at home?
All the pressure is going to be on them.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
I don't know how it changes. And the scary thing
here's the thing with Toronto, Like we can talk about
what Boston is going through and their struggles, but Toronto's
DNA has been a team that just they're not playoff ready.
They're not a team that they don't They're not nasty.
They're playing like we've not seen them play in many years.
Speaker 1 (24:51):
At ow physical they were less n yeah.
Speaker 6 (24:53):
And they were physical. You know. Look Max Domi, the
son of Tidomi, you know, more skill than his dad,
but he has been beast since taken over for Austin
Matthews at center. It's they're a different team. And I
love William Melander like that to me that come playoff time,
he's been their best player last couple of years.
Speaker 4 (25:09):
No offense to speak of. The shots at fifteen to
one to start out, nothing, listless effort in the first
period can't do anything, especially if the Toronto stays out
of the box and they're not getting power play opportunities.
Montgomery called out poster knock after the game. What do
you think of that move?
Speaker 6 (25:24):
Well, he has no points in his last two games.
He's got just two goals in the series. This you know,
five on five come playoff time, guys, it's the teams
that have the best power play. For the top five
power play teams in the playoffs are already through. Boston
is the other one. Like, there's not a big difference.
So you look at you look at the game one,
Boston two for five in the power play, they win
(25:46):
Game two, one for two in the power play. They
win Game three, no game sorry, game two. They lost
Game three, they were two for three. Game four they
were one for three. They're zero for four in the
power play in their last two games. It's a big
difference for them. They've got to find a way.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
Well, what do you make of the guy in net now?
Speaker 6 (26:03):
For the Maple Leafs, he's their best goal.
Speaker 1 (26:05):
Wall has been awesome, He's been awesome.
Speaker 6 (26:06):
And he's been there. He has been I've talked to
people who know this guy grew up in Saint Louis.
Joseph Wall did they said to me last year best
goal in the system? I said, I thought last year
if that, he would be their starter at some point.
If he was healthy at the beginning of the year,
he would have been their starter, and Samsonov would not
have been the guy he is. The guy looks infallible.
(26:26):
I mean as good as Swayman has been, Wall has
matched him.
Speaker 1 (26:29):
Yeah, agreed with that. What do you make the number
now for Game seven?
Speaker 3 (26:33):
As the Bruins are right around minus one thirty five
higher than the series price before Game one actually started,
and the totals at five and a half poull you
bet the under on that number?
Speaker 6 (26:41):
Well, the under? I mean, look, you want to play
it safe. You're the two things that have you know,
death taxes and the under in the series and the
least team total under. I mean, they can't score more
than two goals, even when they win, they can't score
more than two. Now, Mike Palm, I thought, you know,
made a great point. I think on Thursday with you guys,
if you like the Leafs that serious price at plus
three twenty five, I mean, you got to be feeling
(27:03):
really good coming in to the game tonight, into that
Game seven, and if you want, you can still hedge
and come back at Boston at minus one thirty five
wouldn't be a bad way to go if you were
able to do that.
Speaker 4 (27:14):
Do you think this is a mini could be a
Bennington story again, with what he's able to do.
Speaker 5 (27:19):
I can't believe they're throwing him in there.
Speaker 4 (27:20):
The last couple of years and elimination games and he's
three and one with a one four to zero and
a nine to.
Speaker 5 (27:25):
Fifty save percentage.
Speaker 4 (27:26):
The people are is there something there that this could
be like Bennington Part two? If Wall gets hot at
the right time and carries a team to make a
deep run.
Speaker 6 (27:36):
He's just PAULI. He's a really good goalie. He's the
best goalie they have in their system. It could be
like a Bennington thing. It could be, but he's really good,
Like it's not a fluke that he's playing this well.
From the people that I've talked to, they've always said
best goalie in the system.
Speaker 4 (27:50):
Okay, but then why the Samsonov stuff though too, I
would say as well. But and then the thing if
they come back and do this without Matthews, this is
an all timer, Well, what do you think it's more
than an ill? And I know they were breaking it
down on Sportsnet, but that's another wrangle too. If Boston
blows this and Toronto comes back without their best player.
Speaker 6 (28:08):
Well what it means to Boston. I you know, sure
Jim Montgomery could be he could be coaching for his job,
as you've been talking about show. Absolutely, it's it is
so surprising that the guy who is the best goalscorer
on the planet right now is not playing and they're
winning and they're winning without them, and they're winning without them.
So but look, I'll go to even what Johnny Lazarus
(28:29):
was saying with you guys in the in the in
the second hour of the show, I mean, is Boston
going back to where they were what we thought they
were going to be, because there's just they're not deep enough,
you know, we always felt like they're not deep down
the middle, and right now they're showing. But it's still
I mean the fact that Pasta has only two goals
in the series, and and he and marshadap and Blank
the last two games, those guys rise to the occasion
(28:52):
and so.
Speaker 1 (28:53):
Credit to Toronto for pretty much he's having their careers.
Speaker 3 (28:56):
Yeah yeah, but it could be back to back seasons
obviously where they go out like this. So moving forward,
the winner of the series. Do you give them much
of a chance at all against Florida?
Speaker 1 (29:06):
You're not the only one.
Speaker 6 (29:07):
Yeah, I mean, Florida just looks you know, they're so impressive.
I mean think about you know, really the margin of
victory between them and Tampa was pretty much one goal.
I mean until you got to until you got to
the elimination champs good, you know, I think the goals
were like thirteen to twelve something something like that. I mean,
it really wasn't a big difference. But god, Florida is
just so deep and the way that Bob has played,
(29:28):
and you know, the saves that he has made. You know,
I don't don't. I don't give much of a puncher's
chance to either team.
Speaker 4 (29:34):
Okay, now this is great because we talked to Johnny
earlier and everyone you talked to is shocked, and they
bring it up, how are the How's the Best team?
With Hall Mice an underdog gear, except, as Mitch pointed out,
one of the guys we had on Jeff Davis who
makes the number, and Jeff Davis here at CIRCA made Carolina.
Speaker 5 (29:54):
He wanted to go.
Speaker 4 (29:55):
As high as one to eighty in the series. So
he says he's got dollar sixty. Even the people were
one is outrageous. He went higher on the series. I
think the Rangers are gonna have a tough time scoring.
I bet under a game one on Sunday. What do
you think Carolina dollar forty here against the Rangers.
Speaker 6 (30:11):
I like Carolina in the series. I think they are
the better team. You know, look what Carolina has missed
guys in years past is they have not enough depth
up front. And there's three guys on this roster that
weren't on this playoff roster last year. Jake Denzil who
they acquired at the trade deadline, if Jenny kuznets Up
who they acquired at the trade deadline, and Andre Svetchnikov,
who's been a big part of this team for a
(30:32):
number of years. They're all added to this roster. They've
got twelve guys that have scored a goal in the playoffs.
They're deep as heck. And the other thing we have
even mentioned the guy who leads the team in scoring,
and that's Seth Jarvis. This kid, it's a breakout year
for Jarvis. He you know, he's got thirty scored thirty
one goals this year. He had thirty in his previous
two seasons. I think he's a good bet for By
(30:53):
the way, if you like Carolina con Smith, Oh.
Speaker 1 (30:56):
Really, that's the guy that you would go with right nowt.
Speaker 6 (30:58):
Here, right now, with the number you can get on
Jarvis at about plus twenty two hundred.
Speaker 3 (31:02):
Absolutely, okay, he'd be the number one guy that you
would bet if you like Carolina right now?
Speaker 1 (31:06):
Yes, yeah, okay, followed by who, well for Carolina, Oh
for anybody?
Speaker 6 (31:11):
No, actually no, I mean they're look there, I got
a laundry list of guys depending on what team you like,
there are guys you know. Look, you've got Connor at
the top of the board at plus five fifty. I
would take Leon dry Title at plus twenty five hundred
right now, or zach Heiman you know, at plus two eighty.
I think dry Title has been the Oilers best player
this year.
Speaker 1 (31:27):
You have been all over him.
Speaker 5 (31:28):
Yeah, yeah, rops have been good.
Speaker 6 (31:29):
Yeah, yes.
Speaker 4 (31:31):
One more thing on this series. I'm concerned about Rangers
scoring offensively. You have the numbers to back it up.
I talked about it earlier. The two wins in the
regular season were two to one and one nothing. But
I was at times their play was lacking against Washington
might have been the worst playoff team ever.
Speaker 5 (31:47):
They were outscored by thirty.
Speaker 4 (31:49):
Seven goals on the season and made the playoffs.
Speaker 5 (31:51):
It's ever happened before.
Speaker 6 (31:52):
Yeah, no it I am concerned. The Rangers have always
been a team that's been top six heavy. Now you
know the addition of a guy like Zach Rosslovic who
came over from Columbus. This is the guy that was
former first round draft pick. He's helped this roster. Vincent
Trochek's been one of the Rangers' best players. But I
just think Carolina is way deeper. And if if Freddy
Anderson can be just good, you just have to be great.
(32:16):
I think I like Carolina.
Speaker 1 (32:18):
What's good? What's good enough?
Speaker 6 (32:20):
He's got to have like a nine oh five nine
ten save percentage, and if he can do that, I
mean he's been he's been phenomenal. I think he only
had like two losses regulation losses down the stretch when
he came back. He's been really good. He hasn't been
the Freddy Anderson that we're used to seeing.
Speaker 4 (32:34):
So the other side is they struggled against the Islanders
that was supposed to be a Cakewalk.
Speaker 6 (32:39):
It wasn't. But you know what, two teams that play
the same style. In my opinion, it's just the Carolina
has more skill. So all I think we're going to
see more of a wider open contest between the Rangers
and Gains than we did against you know, with the
Islanders and the Hurricanes.
Speaker 3 (32:54):
We'll get into the Western Conference coming up next. By
the way, would you call Carolina the best team in
hockey then as of right now? Or is their team
out west that matches them?
Speaker 6 (33:02):
I think Dallas, Dallas, Dallas like it really good.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Okay, we'll continue here. Follow the money on vson D
Sports Betting Network. Jonathan Davis from Series XAM talking NHL playoffs.
We will get into all player props that he likes
for tonight the Dallas Golden Knights Game six. What to
do with this Nashville Vancouver series in game six tonight
as well all next year on.
Speaker 4 (33:22):
DC All right, Sturby time. That's two minutes in sports.
Saddle up with DK horse Official DraftKings Affiliate. New customers
(33:45):
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only on the DK horse app. Mitch and Paul Jonathan
Davison Studio with the game out here tonight. We start
off with Vancouver and Nashville. And I said this earlier.
(34:06):
I thought Vancouver missed their opportunity when they had a
chance to close out Nashville up won nothing with less
than ten minutes left and they lose two to one.
Now they go on the road Nashville trying to force
a Game seven. Where's the offense coming from right? I
ran it down earlier, but the lack of shots on goals?
Speaker 5 (34:23):
So they win.
Speaker 4 (34:24):
Game one, they're down two to one with eight minutes left,
crazy comeback, they win. Then you get the bad news
on Demco. You lose him a new injury. They lose
Game two, listless performance for one. Game three they win
on the road twelve shots on goal. Game four you
get the miracle where you're down three to one with
two minutes left, you win in overtime. And then what
(34:46):
happened in Game five? I like I played under five
and a half. I got Nashville tickets coming out of
my ears I've been I got seven to one, six
to one, four Mitch, they think we can come back
and win this year, and I think they win tonight
and they force a game seven. What do you want
to do with this series tonight? And moving forward here?
Three to two Vancouver, Game six in Nashville.
Speaker 6 (35:06):
I think the only thing you do is you play
under and you hope that you don't get a bad
break like you did in what in game three?
Speaker 3 (35:12):
Well, the one in Nashville where they do the game,
I mean that was just devastating on both sides.
Speaker 6 (35:15):
Yeah, yeah, so that that's the one. Yeah, the game
four that that was, that's the game. Yeah. So I
think under is the only way to go. I mean,
I can't trust either team. There's just so I would
play under and just yeah and hope you don't get
a bad break.
Speaker 3 (35:31):
It's one of those things that if you bet the
under and you lose, it's like, okay, so what because
it's like me last night, I had the under first
half nicks and seventy six ers. It took seventeen points
in the second quarter from Buddy Healed. Okay, he's blazing hot.
Nothing you can do about that, right, It just happens
and I lost a bet, I'll move on.
Speaker 5 (35:47):
Edmonton should take out the winner.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
No, yeah, absolutely, this team, this team is on a mission.
You know, I remember the postgame interviews after they lost
to Vegas last year. I've saved them because I want
to use them for my radio show. Dry Title is
crying like he's he's fighting back tears when they got eliminated.
McDavid is talking about how it's unacceptable, like you're gonna
(36:10):
go through it, but we're not going through it again.
They're on a mission. And they played that series against
Los Angeles. They had no respect for the Kings. You
think about the one nothing game, but they won game
in game four, they went up one nothing, and after
that they didn't even try to score again. Yeah, they
didn't try. Every time they got the puck, just dump
it out and because they kind of felt like if
(36:32):
if LA scores, we'll go up to one. It was
the same thing in game in game five. They just
don't care, like they know they're better.
Speaker 3 (36:39):
Also, what do they file away from earlier this year
when Vancouver really took it to them.
Speaker 6 (36:43):
Oh my god, Dry Title and McDavid have talked about,
you know, they circled those games. They they were humiliated
and if they get Vancouver, Vancouver's in big trouble. And
I think, look, they've dominated Nashville. McDavid and dry title
have feasted on Nashville over the years. This is this
Oilers team. The thing with Edmonton is they're built so
(37:04):
much better than they've been in years past. They've got
guys that will be nasty and Dreycidle to me, I
think he's been Edmonton's best player at both ends of
the ice. He has been relentless, just absolutely relent and you've.
Speaker 1 (37:16):
Been playing his points prop over one and a half
every game.
Speaker 3 (37:19):
And it started off at like plus one seventy five
ninety five you got okay, very good, and then it
was it came but it was still like plus one
fifty five. And he's going over every game. But I
think won so far.
Speaker 6 (37:29):
Every game but one. Yeah, so sh don't say it
too loud.
Speaker 3 (37:34):
So you would expect them then to win and defeat
the winner, like Paul said of Vancouver and Nashville and
the other first of all, like tonight is game six
out here Dallas and the Golden Knights. It was basically
a pick him when we got here this morning, money
coming in the stars. You called him the best team
in maybe hockey or earlier in this interview. Do you
(37:55):
like him to finish him off tonight?
Speaker 6 (37:57):
You know, I'll tell you this is kind of hard
for me because I'm a big Vegas fan. Like it's hard,
but I just think Vegas is Look this Vegas team again.
The problem with Vegas for me, guys is that they've
been a forty minute team. I think in this series,
for the most part, Dallas wears them down. I don't
want to think that Vegas can go away because I
just think there's so much talent and I love the
way that Jack Eigel has played. But I would probably
(38:21):
just again bet the under, although you know it's interesting.
You know you're seeing that the over is getting hammered.
At least I was looking at the bets before he
came on. Sixty nine percent bets, ninety percent money on
the over. But it hasn't moved off five and a
half because I don't think. I don't think the oddsmakers
want to move it off five and a half and
go to six. They get crushed on the under.
Speaker 4 (38:40):
I think elimination games always scary as you see goalie
comes out, he stays out. But I didn't understand the
goalie change by Cassidy in the last game. And the
ice has been tilted here. I mean the total domination
of Dow. The home team's only won one game in
the series, but the domination in game three. Thompson stand
on his head, and then you lose the other home
game after that, and then Stone scores right away on
(39:02):
the power play in game five, and they get one
goal the rest of the way, and then the ridiculous
penalty as well. So I think Dallas takes them out
tonight as well and sends them home, and then we
get that Dallas Colorado matchup.
Speaker 5 (39:14):
What do you want to do with an eicle prop?
Speaker 6 (39:15):
All right, So Ikele over a half points got points
in every game, but you can't bet it on its
own because it's like minus two something. So I think
if you take Ikele over a half point and combine
that with over three and a half shots on goal,
you can get that at plus money. I think that's
a good way to go. Michael's been their best player.
He's gonna do everything in his power for this team
not to lose and force a Game seven and the
(39:37):
other prop is why Johnston the kid for Dallas over
half a point? Yeah? I mean this. You know, here's
the thing with Dallas. You take a look, talk about
a team that's kind of blended in youth and veterans
because you're young. You've got guys like Johnston, and you've
got Jason Robertson, You've got Stankhovin, and then you've got
Ben and Sagan and the Vets are still there and
(39:59):
it's a great common But I love why Johnson three goals,
five points leads the team in score.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
What is your level of confidence with Ottinger in net?
Mike Paul was saying the other day he likes Dallas,
but he has to really question Ottinger.
Speaker 6 (40:12):
But you can't after the first game, I don't think
I think he's kind of third period.
Speaker 5 (40:16):
Yeah, he shut him down to the third.
Speaker 6 (40:18):
Yeah, I mean the safety he made a big save
on Stevenson on the breakaway. That was a groin pull save. Paul,
You you ever tried one of those?
Speaker 5 (40:24):
Yes, plenty of issues, right, What.
Speaker 1 (40:28):
Are the Knights to win net? Then tonight is it
gonna Is it gonna be Hilligan?
Speaker 6 (40:31):
I would think it will. I mean why would he
do that? I don't know. It was baffling because Logan
people will.
Speaker 3 (40:39):
People who cover the team that I follow on X
were like, well, here you go. It looks like it's
gonna and then just the responses were like, are you
kidding me?
Speaker 1 (40:46):
What is going on here? And nobody had an answer
for it.
Speaker 6 (40:48):
Well, you think about Logan Hill or Logan Logan Hill. Aiden.
Hill's last game before the playoffs was a stinker against
Anaheim that forced him to play Dallas in round one,
So it's like, you know, Vegas did everything they could
all season long to get this guy to be number one.
I don't know, but look, it wasn't the only move
that Cassidy made. He put all of his lines in
a blender for Game five. So overall, should we be
(41:11):
surprised that he went to Hill? I guess not. And
and he wasn't the reason why they lost game game
five either. He played, He played well, probably played his
best game in two months.
Speaker 4 (41:19):
We'd timing what are you hearing on demco if Vancouver advances?
Speaker 6 (41:23):
You know, it's double secret probation on that one. There.
I have no idea. I mean, he's traveling with the
team and my understanding is part of that is also
due to the fact that he and de Smith have
a really good relationship. Now, I don't know if the
Smith plays, I wouldn't I wouldn't go off to sleeve Off's
the way he's played.
Speaker 5 (41:40):
It wouldn't play the Smith tonight.
Speaker 6 (41:42):
No, wow, Okay, the kids played. Siels has played really well.
There's no reason. You know, you got to score, like
if you're Vancouver score you know, you think about it,
the lose to one the guy that scores in the
key to Zadoroff not you know, we're not talking about
Peterson or Miller. You know they've got to find a way,
like you know, you talked about it. They've had Vancouver,
they had just you know, two power play goals in
(42:03):
one game to win a game. They can't score five
on five.
Speaker 4 (42:06):
Bitch is big on Colorado and I hope we get
Colorado Edmonton. Beautiful call by you on hellabuck who was
just awful. And that's going back like a one in
eight record. Now was last nine playoff games? Did you
see what he said in his exit interview?
Speaker 1 (42:19):
I did? Did you see that? I did?
Speaker 5 (42:20):
I didn't see most of the goals he said, Yeah,
So what you're.
Speaker 3 (42:23):
Doing that to be honest, he goes, I was playing,
I was playing my best hockey in my career.
Speaker 1 (42:27):
Yeah, and then I couldn't see any of the goals.
Speaker 5 (42:30):
They're a freight train.
Speaker 4 (42:31):
I mean, that is that's an unbelievable comment. He said, Well,
by what they did and they scored five goals on
him in every game, He's gonna win to Vestna.
Speaker 6 (42:38):
He will. And McKinnon talked about the fact that when
they got eliminated, he did his he was doing his
on ice interview and he said, that's seven to nothing
game absolutely humiliated them and from that point on, he said,
that was a real kick in the butt and it
was interesting. Pete de Boorr referenced it. He said he
watched them play against Vegas the next day and he said,
that's a different team, and they are a different team.
(42:58):
You know, you think about like Vala Chushkin's got seven
goals to lead the team. This is a guy that
back in twenty eighteen didn't score a goal in fifty
seven games. You know, it's it's not you know, he's
got seven. Leknon's got five, McKinnon, mccarr and rant and
all have two.
Speaker 3 (43:13):
All right, So as we close up here, your best
bet like tonight or tomorrow moving forward would be what.
Speaker 6 (43:19):
Uh, well, best bet would be Toronto Boston under five.
That's that's the best. Okay, I agree?
Speaker 1 (43:24):
And the best Stanley Cup final would.
Speaker 6 (43:26):
Be would be Dallas Carolina.
Speaker 1 (43:29):
That would be the best one.
Speaker 6 (43:30):
Well, I shouldn't say that.
Speaker 5 (43:32):
Well, I don't know entertainment.
Speaker 1 (43:35):
What's no er to me? I get it.
Speaker 3 (43:37):
Dallas is awesome. I think Colorado Edmonton would be the
absolute nuts.
Speaker 1 (43:41):
Well Western Conference, That's what I'm saying. To go to
the to go to the Cup.
Speaker 6 (43:44):
Yeah, that would be yeah from oh yeah, back and forth.
Speaker 4 (43:46):
What if Edmonton plays Toronto in the Cup? Canada finally
ends it? What's what grade did you give? And Diamo
the steakhouse at the Deep oh a plus a plush
the station and the Zip sace.
Speaker 6 (43:57):
Zip sauce. You gotta have the Zip sauce.
Speaker 1 (43:59):
Go to college. Depend on X he's at West Coast
h k Y. That'll do it. Stay tuned.
Speaker 3 (44:03):
A numbers game is next. You can listen to decent
dot com prush it this weekend.
Speaker 4 (44:06):
We'll see you
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