August 15, 2023 • 25 mins
Who are teams that need to improve on the back half of the formula 1 season? Can Daniel Ricciardo be able to revive Alpha Tauri? Everything is explored on this episode with Ben and Mikhail.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, flight down, Away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michaels right, find that ship a ship can.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Already you're your hosts F one technical analyst Mikail Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
It is so good to be back McHale on the
decent Formula one betting podcast. I know we're still in
summer break. Technically, we're basically one more week of just
trying to bite our time watch a bunch of meaningless
NFL preseason football, and then we're back with the final
home stretch of the twenty twenty three season Dutch Grand
Prix next weekend. But I'm Mikael glad to be back
for my own little mini vacation. We have an exciting
(00:45):
week of pods coming up. You're going to do one
solo with Michael Lombardi talking leadership, which I'm excited to
listen to. You guys are going to handle that later
in the week, but we're going to talk some second
half impressions. Teams you are looking who you hope can
do a little bit more on the Grid and have
number two McHale So fun week we've gotten in store
on the pod.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Absolutely, I'm just excited to finally be born now. I
just got to say these are the top three teams.
I should probably do a top five, but the last two, honestly,
it's just just we've had too much headaches with them.
It's just like, ah, guys, come on already, You've got
(01:24):
to get your act together, right. So we're just in
the top three who actually can make a difference and
can make it better through the second half of the season.
I just want to preface that before we go in
to further because there's a lot of teams we could
talk about, but these three teams I do honestly believe
could listen to us and make that change that we
do need.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Right Well, two of the teams have been complete afterthoughts
on the Grid so far, and I don't know anybody
who's really been betting them consistently. But I want to
start with the one that does not fit the bill
as far as just similarities between the three teams we're
talking about. So again, these are all your three top teams.
Are kille that need to make its second half of
the season. I want to start with Aston Martin because
they came out had a rocket ship of a car,
(02:06):
But it seems like as the competition has made their
own adjustments, their own upgrades, Aston Martin's been left a
little bit in the dust. Their own upgrades have not
hit the way that the offseason upgrades certainly made a
big splash at the start of the year, and we
went from betting Fernando Alonso pretty consistently at good value
to finish in the podium to not really having a
ton of confidence outside of certain spots for Aston Martin
(02:29):
to even get in the top six of the Fernando
and for Lancetrol, he's been fighting just to get in
the points here. So where are you at right now
with the Aston Martin now that we've had a little
bit of time to decompress get into this summer break.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I think the whole reason why Aston Martin got hypechap
Allah was just due to the fact that Mercedes were
underperforming by a lot, right, So the reason why Mercedes
underperformed was that they thought they concept from last year,
which was no side part, was a great way to
(03:01):
go for this season and realized that halfway through the
first half that it's not going to work. They thought
they could control the aerodynamics from the top, when everything
for this set of regulations, the aerodynamics has come from
the underfloor, right, So that's where Mercedes on the back
(03:23):
foot and Aston Martin saw that. They saw that with
the Red bull and they were like, all right, that's
doing something that we should be looking at.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Right.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And then the other thing was Ferrari was in the
talks last year when the regulations first came out, and
this year they dropped off. So when we saw a
team that was fighting with red Bulls and we saw
they could probably be the only team in contention currently,
but they dropped the ball. Everyone dropped the ball with
the regulations coming into this season, right, it was a
(03:55):
blank slate last year, so we don't know who was
going to do well and this year we sort of
had an idea. But everyone dropped the ball except Aston Martin,
where they're like, oh, we have to change this for
right now, and so they did. They adapted the right
way they were able to move forward. So what has
happened from the start of the season to right now.
(04:19):
That comes down to the fact that everyone played catch up.
Everyone caught up, and then we actually saw troop and
che sorry, true potential being released from the cast. Now,
so now that we're saying what other teams are able
to do, we can see that they can take the
fight further. Right, So the Aston Martin does not like
(04:42):
hide down full sacreds. It can do good with low
and medium. But the McLarens can They love a low
down fall soir because they're damn quick and short line,
so does the Williams. Right, So we're seeing teams who
are choosing certain area up the car to develop, and
(05:03):
for the second half of the first half it played
to that strength.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Sure at bottom line, seems like given the similarities and
strengths of cars, McLaren has clearly surpassed Aston Martin with
with whorthy strength is at And when you consider that
you have still an unproven really driver, I would argue
in Lance Stroll, who has just been mister you know,
mister nepotism and the Aston Martin car as a result,
that team is just weaker as opposed to a couple
(05:30):
of rising stars in Orlando Norris and then a rookie
and Oscar piastri as great as Fernando Alonso is is
the lead Aston Martin. That's why I'm kind of on
a and I you know, I gave you a hard
time for betting Fernando to finish in the top six
in our last race pod, just because I'm kind of
out on Aston until they can prove to me they've
made some sort of adjustments going forward. So I like
that you included them on your list because they have,
(05:51):
like the potential is there, it's got to make an
adjustment to get back to that early season form there
for Aston Martin. You know, the other two teams are
a completely on the opposite side here Mkale. That I mean,
I don't think you, I anybody has been touching with
a ten foot poll. I know you were interested in
backing Daniel Ricardo in his debut race for Alpha Tower
(06:12):
once Nick Devrees was very weirdly canned, just kind of
out of nowhere, no points in his rookie season, just
got the acts as at Alpha TOWERI the sister team
to Red Bull, maybe wanted to get Daniel Riccardo some
reps see if maybe Sergio Perez can continue to struggle
for the Red bullf Maybe Ricardo had a little little
oomph in his car. Maybe he could be an option
(06:32):
for next year in the Red Bull. Either way, Alpha
Tower have been very rare recording points on the grid.
Same thing goes for Alfa Romeo or it's basically been
a valutri botus and that's about it. So with those
two teams, how do you how do you think a
path actually works to go forward as far as actually
getting into the points and being bettable, because I don't
think anybody has either of these teams even close to
(06:55):
their radar as far as actually wanted to make a
weekly bet.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
So we have some of readjust our views for Alvatore. Right,
they thought that their car was really good and that
they had a young driver pairing who could perform really well,
that's not the case. The car is very temperamental as
he gets into corners. They don't have a driver pairent,
(07:20):
but they didn't have driving payent that was able to
sort of give them the right feedback to the engineers, like, hey,
when I get into this corner, the car isn't doing
what I need, what I needed to do. Here, here's
how you fix this. They didn't have that experience because
Uisto has not performed as a winner right now, he
(07:42):
has performed as a person who's in Formula one as
a driver informed one, but no as a winner, so
he can't give that feedback. Nick de Reus was a rookie,
so he was unable to give that feedback because the
only car he's only tested has been the Williams as Martin,
and but that's in sort of practice conditions, it wasn't
really as a proper racing driver. So they thought that
(08:06):
they had their pairing, and they noticed that Nick Deveese
does not live up to the potential, so he's unable
to do that, and they saminated his contract defeated effective
immediately so that they could have twelve races to catch
up rather than ten. Right, I saw that. So they're like,
all right, so we can either have ten races to
catch up or we can have twelve. They chose to
(08:28):
do the twelve. They chose to get Daniel Ricardo in
as quickly as possible to help catch up on some
points because they potentially could catch up at points here. Right,
So if Daniel Ricardo could give them the feedback exactly
what the red Bull was doing because he was a
test driver out there, if he can give that benchmark
and be like, all right, this is what your parent
teams do, right, You need to hit these targets. Here's
(08:52):
what I'm feeling with this car. Here's how you change it.
It gives the engineering team a bit more time to
go and look at the car to be able to
do something. Now. I don't think they'll be able to
change the car entirely the season, but they might be
able to introduce some upgrade that allows the car to
perform on some sort of level closer to Red Bull
(09:13):
than where they started this season.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
And it's the issue is when you talk about a
temperamental car, it's the fact that you have a young
driver in Yuki Sinoda who is kind of a temperamental
driver in his own right, and so that has not
resulted in a great concoction of sorts. Sonoda's been able
to record a number of points finished as several, but
they've all been right in that ninth tenth range as well.
The Alpha Romeo storyline is that about valucri Botis comes
(09:37):
out during the summer break and said the team have
not hit any of their targets for the first half
as far as the upgrades go, and that's you know,
that is a driver with pedigree who is part of
a bunch of championship winning teams in the past with
the Mercedes, So you definitely take his word pretty whoheartedly
right Mkhale as far as a guy who he knows
when there's a car that is flying and to say
(09:57):
the least, Alfa Romeo is not a car that is
flying right now.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Absolutely, Alfa Romeyo have got to listen to Valfori bosses
and how on how the cars respond, because if you
go back to when you started, he was with Williams.
Williams is able to finish fifth in the constructors so
he's got points their total. Wolfs or something in him
call him up to Mercedes was number two to Lewis Hamilton.
He was the number two driver. He set the standard
(10:23):
for what a number two driver should be and he
did that over and over again. So I'm pretty sure
that he's he knows what feedback to give the race engineers.
So the question that comes down to why have Alfa
Romeo not hit their targets right? Where does the issue lie?
Because it's supposed to be a well balanced car all round,
(10:48):
Yet any of the upgrades that are bought to their car,
don't seem to be helping to make it faster. Where
is Aston Martin and Alfa Rome and Alfatari all looking
at in the grand scale of things, because we know
Aston Martain changed the car completely this season. Able to
get ahead, Alpha Tori just need the right amount of
(11:11):
feedback to come through, and then we have Valkri Botas
giving the right feedback, but nothing is happening, right. Is
that going to be a team thing? Is that a
driver apparent thing? Oh? What exactly is that thing? Needs
to be looked at? Because as far as I can see,
the car is well balanced. So what are their performance
(11:34):
targets as they head into the second half of the season.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And again we're talking about the two teams at least
in Alpha Tawi and Alfameo at the bottom of the grid.
Botas has recorded nine points on his own, Joe going
you yet to record a points finish, Yuki Sonoda three
different tenth place finishes, Alfa Tari plumb last in the table,
a whole five hundred points behind Red Bull. Not not
exactly where you want to be. But again they're not
going to win. It's all about I'm just just trying
(11:59):
to show a little bit of improvement to carry over
into next year. That's what we're trying to isolate. Here
in the back end of the twenty twenty three season,
we'll go into some of our news and notes. There's
one big headline, I want to get your take out
of Michale. We're gonna do that after a short break
as we wrap up our intermission summer break special here
on the VCON F one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts, F one
technical analyst Mikale Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
All Right, we're back. Time to talk Ferrari because we're
sort of like contractually applicated Michale as our last year.
Not a ton of news and notes. This is a cary,
so to speak, of the F one season, but here
you go. Charles Leclair officially admits Ferrari had to quote
reset their expectations in twenty twenty three after the first
(13:08):
race of the year. And that is just an interesting
quote because it is in start contrast to the team
boss Frederick Vesser insisting that now the team you know,
they only need to find a few tentsive lap time
and they'll be challenging for wins again. So who is
right who is wrong here?
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Mckil could both be right and both be wrong.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
No, that would be very Ferrari aske would it not?
Speaker 1 (13:32):
It would be But let's look at this from Fred's
point of view. Frederick came to the team that was
challenging Red Bull last season, right he let He's like,
all right, we can do this. Ferrari just dropped the
ball when he came through. There was a lot to
do with driver errors and reliability issues, so they were
(13:57):
working on trying to fix those issues, which they did.
Then k the performance standard, which is where Charles the
Cloak comes and we have not hit our targets. Well,
of course, charge you won't hit your target because the
car was unreliable. So what Frederick Vasa was focusing on
was making sure is that your car is reliable. You
(14:17):
want to know how we know that is because after
the first race you took it tab a grid penalty.
Have you taken a g penalty since then? When it
came to all parts, you have not. Frederick Versuau looked
and said, we have reliability issue. We have solved that.
Now it's something like at the performance issue which they
(14:40):
are looking at. So they had to they had to
revise everything they had when they had the the issues
due to durability, right. And the whole reason why that
that's there were that's important is all those issues were
focused on the IC, the internal combustion engine, the tire
(15:00):
engine project, the powertrain right has been holded till twenty
twenty six. We're in a whole alligation period, so you
can't make any upgrades to the power unit. So they
had to focus on fixing that issue because the FIA
just say, if you guys have any issues with the
(15:22):
durability and the engine, you can go back and revise
it to make that it is good. So that's why
they focus most of their departments on able to fix
that issue. And now notice that there is a drop
and performance, they need to get that back, and we
are seeing some of that performance come back right this look,
it's just that we have drive errors, we have strategy errors,
(15:44):
and I think we have leadership errors as well. And
I'm going to talk about Ferrari a little bit more
in depth in terms of leadership with Michael Lombardi on
Wednesday's episode. So you guys get a leadership point of
view on how the team ship be operating and how
it is operating. But from my perspective, when I'm looking
(16:06):
at the team, I see a big, big gap in
leadership out there.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
That's a nice tease, by the way for Wednesday show,
very professionally done to kill. But yeah, I mean anybody watching,
and remember, let's go back to the start of the year,
our first episode. I mean, you and I both like
Charlo leclair as as a pretty compelling longer shot to
win the drivers Championship, which seems just insane and stupid
in retrospect, but we really really thought, with where Ferrari
(16:37):
was at from a leadership perspective last year, bringing in
Frederick Besser would be the it would be the boost
they need. I mean, I have I have leclair I
have leclair in pocket five to one to win the Drivers' Championship.
He should be. He's about a million to one at
least he should be. He's not winning the Driver's Championship.
He's been the team has not been good. So it
just sort of shows you, yeah, relative expectations. It's it's
been bad. That's that's why as we wrap up today,
(16:58):
I want to get your thoughts. So we know red
Bull is going to win the win both the drivers
and the constructors. But if you had a handicap right now,
your picks two through four. In the constructors you have
Mercedes on two hundred and forty seven points, Aston Martin
on one ninety six, Ferrari on one ninety one, and
then McLaren trying to chase with their their last three
races being excellent at one oh three, does McLaren crash
(17:20):
into the top four? Where does Ferrari finish? Where are
your second half predictions lying there? McHale on our on our,
our best of the rest. Basically you know that second
tier of the pack after the dominant force, which is
red Bull at the top.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
So I tease this on the On the Rise episode
last week. So if you have a list of that,
do go and listen to On the Rise. It will
be linked in the description as well. But so where
do I see McLaren coming up in that battle bit
two through four? Here's how I see it, right, Mercedes
are a bit too high up, They're going to take
(17:56):
second Ruth. There you have Aston and for fighting they
have one point difference. I think that Accent have some
upgrades to bring. That is the upward's going to work
in relative to the cars that's coming up with the tracks,
it's going to be fifty to fifty. It's going to
(18:18):
be a swing. It's going to come down to the
driver eventually. So I don't see aston Martins going that
high because I cannot trust Lancerol to score points consistently
for as Martin. So I do see Asthena Martins sort
of taking a bit a bit more dive in terms
of points. Ferrari seem to be finding some pace a
(18:41):
lot more. They're fighting up their top six consistently with
both drivers. The issue then comes down to strategy. They
always seem to get buff just as we think that
they're doing really well. They're up there, they go well,
they go well, they go well, coming pet and now
you're finishing tenth and eleventh? Why why did you get
(19:01):
them into the pets for what reason? Just let them
drive the race. So if these strategy errors keep occurring,
we could see Ferrari sort of stagnate as well. But
the team that does seem to be on a track
to fighting for third in the constructors is McLaren. Oh yeah,
(19:24):
that's and it's if you look at their pace, it's
a complete one eighty right. They were fighting for seventeenth
through nineteenth the start of the season, and now they're
fighting for P two. Oscar Piostree is talented. Landon Norris
is talented, right, and I think Oscar Piastre is a
(19:48):
good wake up call for Landon Norris as well. Look
at his talent. It's going to be a threat now
for Lando. Landon needs to bring it up. Now. He's
going to be like, all right, I'm the leader of
the steam and I have my number two drivers scoring
second insprent races and coming pretty close in the points.
All right, guys, let's step it up. Hand me the ball,
(20:09):
let's step it up to get this stuff going. And
I think they're going to do that coming up, especially
with low downface tracks coming up for the in the
second half of the season, McLaren are going to score
some really good points that they're going to catch up
really quickly because I don't see them having many strategy
errors in terms of race stage. They have their strategy
(20:30):
errors when it comes down to weather. They just still
don't know how to navigate that. And that's all right,
all right, because we know that once they have what
have strategy going in through the weekend, their racist strategies
are really good. They'll pit Lando when he needs to
put and get him out when he needs to get out.
So that's what I love about McLaren. As we go
(20:53):
through here in terms of Ashton and Ferrari and Mercedes, right,
Mercedes seem to sort of pick it up, but Aston
Martin is sort of fighting Ferrari now for that place.
There's going to be that battle. I'm McLaren are just
going to sneak in and be like, hey, guys, you
said that the Papyo cloud was out here, we are
and we're going past you. Guys while they're fighting for
(21:17):
scraps in around P ten to p six for Acidon
and Ferrari, McLaren will be like, you know what, let's
take the fight to Red Bull. I do believe that
they could be the team to take the fight red
Bull in the coming years.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
See I mean, based on the trajectory, it would make
make a lot of sense. I mean, we've been high,
especially now that the proof is in the pudding on McLaren,
I mean no reason why the steps. The steps are there,
the progression should be right in front of them. Ten
races left, by the way, two more in Europe, Dutch
Grand Prix next weekend, then we go to Mansa and
then the Asians swing in the fall back to this,
we still have the two races left in the States.
(21:51):
Of course, everybody here in Vegas Mchael excited for the
Las Vegas Grand Prix in November, so a very exciting stretch.
This has been that brief down time. I'll be fascinated
to see you know, You'll be You'll be digging through
all the all the data, all the practice reports as
soon as the teams come back out onto the grid
next week in preparation for the Dutch Grand Prix.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Just before we sign off, Ben, just before we signed off, right,
If you remember in the very first episode this season,
of course you don't, I gave out a draft kings
Parlay that looked very interesting to me. I want to
know if you recorded.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
It, wasn't it Leclair to win the drivers? And uh.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
No, no, that that was a bet that I was
looking at. And I jumped on Charles Leclare same as you.
But I jumped on at one race Lake because I
got sixteen to one. I was looking at that, but
there was one a parlay that really looked good.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Do you happened to win nine straight races?
Speaker 1 (22:55):
No, it was Max forst happened to win the drivers
and Red Bull to win the constructors. Do you remember
what the odds were for that?
Speaker 3 (23:05):
I mean you're getting you're getting plus money on that.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
That was even money.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
That was a plus one hundred even money.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Yeah, that was that was even money.
Speaker 3 (23:13):
Does that seem like a steal now? I mean it's
always easy in retrospect.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
But yeah, I'm so I take that because again, given
what was happening last year. But I still say Charles
laclur on his on his own ticket, which let me
down completely. But I did say that there was a
reason when I was looking at any of the testing
that went on in Barcelona and Borrain. Right, A lot
(23:40):
of people think that looking at the testing that it
doesn't allow you to make any decisions come for the
season because a lot of teams would be holding back performance,
especially error wise. They'll be hiding a lot of things.
They were taking older engines that are worn out and
just crunning that this is going to be your pro
(24:05):
tip right, start paying attention to your preseason runs. It's
going to help you handicap pro tip and any features
in the Formula one market.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Yeah. No, I think that's a very good way to
look at It's been very beneficial this year, especially with
how the preseason, especially Ashton Martin as well as Red
Bull has translated into twenty twenty three. So that's great.
Thanks for reminding me of that. Now I feel bad
I didn't get I did not make that bet, as
I'm sure anybody who didn't is also wondering the same thing.
So that'll do us for us today again. Stay tuned
(24:40):
later on in the podfeed this week, Michale with Michael
Lombardi talk in some general performance and leadership based topics,
talking Red Bull and Mercedes in particular. When we come
back next week in our full normal episode will resume
with the full breakdown Dutch Grand Prix coming up next weekend,
so really excited for that. As we now sign up
for Michael, I'm ben We'll catch you next time right
(25:02):
here on the Visa in Formula one Betting Podcast
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Hey, flight down, Away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michaels right, find that ship a ship can.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Already you're your hosts F one technical analyst Mikail Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
It is so good to be back McHale on the
decent Formula one betting podcast. I know we're still in
summer break. Technically, we're basically one more week of just
trying to bite our time watch a bunch of meaningless
NFL preseason football, and then we're back with the final
home stretch of the twenty twenty three season Dutch Grand
Prix next weekend. But I'm Mikael glad to be back
for my own little mini vacation. We have an exciting
(00:45):
week of pods coming up. You're going to do one
solo with Michael Lombardi talking leadership, which I'm excited to
listen to. You guys are going to handle that later
in the week, but we're going to talk some second
half impressions. Teams you are looking who you hope can
do a little bit more on the Grid and have
number two McHale So fun week we've gotten in store
on the pod.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
Absolutely, I'm just excited to finally be born now. I
just got to say these are the top three teams.
I should probably do a top five, but the last two, honestly,
it's just just we've had too much headaches with them.
It's just like, ah, guys, come on already, You've got
(01:24):
to get your act together, right. So we're just in
the top three who actually can make a difference and
can make it better through the second half of the season.
I just want to preface that before we go in
to further because there's a lot of teams we could
talk about, but these three teams I do honestly believe
could listen to us and make that change that we
do need.
Speaker 3 (01:44):
Right Well, two of the teams have been complete afterthoughts
on the Grid so far, and I don't know anybody
who's really been betting them consistently. But I want to
start with the one that does not fit the bill
as far as just similarities between the three teams we're
talking about. So again, these are all your three top teams.
Are kille that need to make its second half of
the season. I want to start with Aston Martin because
they came out had a rocket ship of a car,
(02:06):
But it seems like as the competition has made their
own adjustments, their own upgrades, Aston Martin's been left a
little bit in the dust. Their own upgrades have not
hit the way that the offseason upgrades certainly made a
big splash at the start of the year, and we
went from betting Fernando Alonso pretty consistently at good value
to finish in the podium to not really having a
ton of confidence outside of certain spots for Aston Martin
(02:29):
to even get in the top six of the Fernando
and for Lancetrol, he's been fighting just to get in
the points here. So where are you at right now
with the Aston Martin now that we've had a little
bit of time to decompress get into this summer break.
Speaker 1 (02:40):
I think the whole reason why Aston Martin got hypechap
Allah was just due to the fact that Mercedes were
underperforming by a lot, right, So the reason why Mercedes
underperformed was that they thought they concept from last year,
which was no side part, was a great way to
(03:01):
go for this season and realized that halfway through the
first half that it's not going to work. They thought
they could control the aerodynamics from the top, when everything
for this set of regulations, the aerodynamics has come from
the underfloor, right, So that's where Mercedes on the back
(03:23):
foot and Aston Martin saw that. They saw that with
the Red bull and they were like, all right, that's
doing something that we should be looking at.
Speaker 3 (03:32):
Right.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
And then the other thing was Ferrari was in the
talks last year when the regulations first came out, and
this year they dropped off. So when we saw a
team that was fighting with red Bulls and we saw
they could probably be the only team in contention currently,
but they dropped the ball. Everyone dropped the ball with
the regulations coming into this season, right, it was a
(03:55):
blank slate last year, so we don't know who was
going to do well and this year we sort of
had an idea. But everyone dropped the ball except Aston Martin,
where they're like, oh, we have to change this for
right now, and so they did. They adapted the right
way they were able to move forward. So what has
happened from the start of the season to right now.
(04:19):
That comes down to the fact that everyone played catch up.
Everyone caught up, and then we actually saw troop and
che sorry, true potential being released from the cast. Now,
so now that we're saying what other teams are able
to do, we can see that they can take the
fight further. Right, So the Aston Martin does not like
(04:42):
hide down full sacreds. It can do good with low
and medium. But the McLarens can They love a low
down fall soir because they're damn quick and short line,
so does the Williams. Right, So we're seeing teams who
are choosing certain area up the car to develop, and
(05:03):
for the second half of the first half it played
to that strength.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
Sure at bottom line, seems like given the similarities and
strengths of cars, McLaren has clearly surpassed Aston Martin with
with whorthy strength is at And when you consider that
you have still an unproven really driver, I would argue
in Lance Stroll, who has just been mister you know,
mister nepotism and the Aston Martin car as a result,
that team is just weaker as opposed to a couple
(05:30):
of rising stars in Orlando Norris and then a rookie
and Oscar piastri as great as Fernando Alonso is is
the lead Aston Martin. That's why I'm kind of on
a and I you know, I gave you a hard
time for betting Fernando to finish in the top six
in our last race pod, just because I'm kind of
out on Aston until they can prove to me they've
made some sort of adjustments going forward. So I like
that you included them on your list because they have,
(05:51):
like the potential is there, it's got to make an
adjustment to get back to that early season form there
for Aston Martin. You know, the other two teams are
a completely on the opposite side here Mkale. That I mean,
I don't think you, I anybody has been touching with
a ten foot poll. I know you were interested in
backing Daniel Ricardo in his debut race for Alpha Tower
(06:12):
once Nick Devrees was very weirdly canned, just kind of
out of nowhere, no points in his rookie season, just
got the acts as at Alpha TOWERI the sister team
to Red Bull, maybe wanted to get Daniel Riccardo some
reps see if maybe Sergio Perez can continue to struggle
for the Red bullf Maybe Ricardo had a little little
oomph in his car. Maybe he could be an option
(06:32):
for next year in the Red Bull. Either way, Alpha
Tower have been very rare recording points on the grid.
Same thing goes for Alfa Romeo or it's basically been
a valutri botus and that's about it. So with those
two teams, how do you how do you think a
path actually works to go forward as far as actually
getting into the points and being bettable, because I don't
think anybody has either of these teams even close to
(06:55):
their radar as far as actually wanted to make a
weekly bet.
Speaker 1 (06:58):
So we have some of readjust our views for Alvatore. Right,
they thought that their car was really good and that
they had a young driver pairing who could perform really well,
that's not the case. The car is very temperamental as
he gets into corners. They don't have a driver pairent,
(07:20):
but they didn't have driving payent that was able to
sort of give them the right feedback to the engineers, like, hey,
when I get into this corner, the car isn't doing
what I need, what I needed to do. Here, here's
how you fix this. They didn't have that experience because
Uisto has not performed as a winner right now, he
(07:42):
has performed as a person who's in Formula one as
a driver informed one, but no as a winner, so
he can't give that feedback. Nick de Reus was a rookie,
so he was unable to give that feedback because the
only car he's only tested has been the Williams as Martin,
and but that's in sort of practice conditions, it wasn't
really as a proper racing driver. So they thought that
(08:06):
they had their pairing, and they noticed that Nick Deveese
does not live up to the potential, so he's unable
to do that, and they saminated his contract defeated effective
immediately so that they could have twelve races to catch
up rather than ten. Right, I saw that. So they're like,
all right, so we can either have ten races to
catch up or we can have twelve. They chose to
(08:28):
do the twelve. They chose to get Daniel Ricardo in
as quickly as possible to help catch up on some
points because they potentially could catch up at points here. Right,
So if Daniel Ricardo could give them the feedback exactly
what the red Bull was doing because he was a
test driver out there, if he can give that benchmark
and be like, all right, this is what your parent
teams do, right, You need to hit these targets. Here's
(08:52):
what I'm feeling with this car. Here's how you change it.
It gives the engineering team a bit more time to
go and look at the car to be able to
do something. Now. I don't think they'll be able to
change the car entirely the season, but they might be
able to introduce some upgrade that allows the car to
perform on some sort of level closer to Red Bull
(09:13):
than where they started this season.
Speaker 3 (09:16):
And it's the issue is when you talk about a
temperamental car, it's the fact that you have a young
driver in Yuki Sinoda who is kind of a temperamental
driver in his own right, and so that has not
resulted in a great concoction of sorts. Sonoda's been able
to record a number of points finished as several, but
they've all been right in that ninth tenth range as well.
The Alpha Romeo storyline is that about valucri Botis comes
(09:37):
out during the summer break and said the team have
not hit any of their targets for the first half
as far as the upgrades go, and that's you know,
that is a driver with pedigree who is part of
a bunch of championship winning teams in the past with
the Mercedes, So you definitely take his word pretty whoheartedly
right Mkhale as far as a guy who he knows
when there's a car that is flying and to say
(09:57):
the least, Alfa Romeo is not a car that is
flying right now.
Speaker 1 (10:00):
Absolutely, Alfa Romeyo have got to listen to Valfori bosses
and how on how the cars respond, because if you
go back to when you started, he was with Williams.
Williams is able to finish fifth in the constructors so
he's got points their total. Wolfs or something in him
call him up to Mercedes was number two to Lewis Hamilton.
He was the number two driver. He set the standard
(10:23):
for what a number two driver should be and he
did that over and over again. So I'm pretty sure
that he's he knows what feedback to give the race engineers.
So the question that comes down to why have Alfa
Romeo not hit their targets right? Where does the issue lie?
Because it's supposed to be a well balanced car all round,
(10:48):
Yet any of the upgrades that are bought to their car,
don't seem to be helping to make it faster. Where
is Aston Martin and Alfa Rome and Alfatari all looking
at in the grand scale of things, because we know
Aston Martain changed the car completely this season. Able to
get ahead, Alpha Tori just need the right amount of
(11:11):
feedback to come through, and then we have Valkri Botas
giving the right feedback, but nothing is happening, right. Is
that going to be a team thing? Is that a
driver apparent thing? Oh? What exactly is that thing? Needs
to be looked at? Because as far as I can see,
the car is well balanced. So what are their performance
(11:34):
targets as they head into the second half of the season.
Speaker 3 (11:38):
And again we're talking about the two teams at least
in Alpha Tawi and Alfameo at the bottom of the grid.
Botas has recorded nine points on his own, Joe going
you yet to record a points finish, Yuki Sonoda three
different tenth place finishes, Alfa Tari plumb last in the table,
a whole five hundred points behind Red Bull. Not not
exactly where you want to be. But again they're not
going to win. It's all about I'm just just trying
(11:59):
to show a little bit of improvement to carry over
into next year. That's what we're trying to isolate. Here
in the back end of the twenty twenty three season,
we'll go into some of our news and notes. There's
one big headline, I want to get your take out
of Michale. We're gonna do that after a short break
as we wrap up our intermission summer break special here
on the VCON F one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts, F one
technical analyst Mikale Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (12:48):
All Right, we're back. Time to talk Ferrari because we're
sort of like contractually applicated Michale as our last year.
Not a ton of news and notes. This is a cary,
so to speak, of the F one season, but here
you go. Charles Leclair officially admits Ferrari had to quote
reset their expectations in twenty twenty three after the first
(13:08):
race of the year. And that is just an interesting
quote because it is in start contrast to the team
boss Frederick Vesser insisting that now the team you know,
they only need to find a few tentsive lap time
and they'll be challenging for wins again. So who is
right who is wrong here?
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Mckil could both be right and both be wrong.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
No, that would be very Ferrari aske would it not?
Speaker 1 (13:32):
It would be But let's look at this from Fred's
point of view. Frederick came to the team that was
challenging Red Bull last season, right he let He's like,
all right, we can do this. Ferrari just dropped the
ball when he came through. There was a lot to
do with driver errors and reliability issues, so they were
(13:57):
working on trying to fix those issues, which they did.
Then k the performance standard, which is where Charles the
Cloak comes and we have not hit our targets. Well,
of course, charge you won't hit your target because the
car was unreliable. So what Frederick Vasa was focusing on
was making sure is that your car is reliable. You
(14:17):
want to know how we know that is because after
the first race you took it tab a grid penalty.
Have you taken a g penalty since then? When it
came to all parts, you have not. Frederick Versuau looked
and said, we have reliability issue. We have solved that.
Now it's something like at the performance issue which they
(14:40):
are looking at. So they had to they had to
revise everything they had when they had the the issues
due to durability, right. And the whole reason why that
that's there were that's important is all those issues were
focused on the IC, the internal combustion engine, the tire
(15:00):
engine project, the powertrain right has been holded till twenty
twenty six. We're in a whole alligation period, so you
can't make any upgrades to the power unit. So they
had to focus on fixing that issue because the FIA
just say, if you guys have any issues with the
(15:22):
durability and the engine, you can go back and revise
it to make that it is good. So that's why
they focus most of their departments on able to fix
that issue. And now notice that there is a drop
and performance, they need to get that back, and we
are seeing some of that performance come back right this look,
it's just that we have drive errors, we have strategy errors,
(15:44):
and I think we have leadership errors as well. And
I'm going to talk about Ferrari a little bit more
in depth in terms of leadership with Michael Lombardi on
Wednesday's episode. So you guys get a leadership point of
view on how the team ship be operating and how
it is operating. But from my perspective, when I'm looking
(16:06):
at the team, I see a big, big gap in
leadership out there.
Speaker 3 (16:13):
That's a nice tease, by the way for Wednesday show,
very professionally done to kill. But yeah, I mean anybody watching,
and remember, let's go back to the start of the year,
our first episode. I mean, you and I both like
Charlo leclair as as a pretty compelling longer shot to
win the drivers Championship, which seems just insane and stupid
in retrospect, but we really really thought, with where Ferrari
(16:37):
was at from a leadership perspective last year, bringing in
Frederick Besser would be the it would be the boost
they need. I mean, I have I have leclair I
have leclair in pocket five to one to win the Drivers' Championship.
He should be. He's about a million to one at
least he should be. He's not winning the Driver's Championship.
He's been the team has not been good. So it
just sort of shows you, yeah, relative expectations. It's it's
been bad. That's that's why as we wrap up today,
(16:58):
I want to get your thoughts. So we know red
Bull is going to win the win both the drivers
and the constructors. But if you had a handicap right now,
your picks two through four. In the constructors you have
Mercedes on two hundred and forty seven points, Aston Martin
on one ninety six, Ferrari on one ninety one, and
then McLaren trying to chase with their their last three
races being excellent at one oh three, does McLaren crash
(17:20):
into the top four? Where does Ferrari finish? Where are
your second half predictions lying there? McHale on our on our,
our best of the rest. Basically you know that second
tier of the pack after the dominant force, which is
red Bull at the top.
Speaker 1 (17:33):
So I tease this on the On the Rise episode
last week. So if you have a list of that,
do go and listen to On the Rise. It will
be linked in the description as well. But so where
do I see McLaren coming up in that battle bit
two through four? Here's how I see it, right, Mercedes
are a bit too high up, They're going to take
(17:56):
second Ruth. There you have Aston and for fighting they
have one point difference. I think that Accent have some
upgrades to bring. That is the upward's going to work
in relative to the cars that's coming up with the tracks,
it's going to be fifty to fifty. It's going to
(18:18):
be a swing. It's going to come down to the
driver eventually. So I don't see aston Martins going that
high because I cannot trust Lancerol to score points consistently
for as Martin. So I do see Asthena Martins sort
of taking a bit a bit more dive in terms
of points. Ferrari seem to be finding some pace a
(18:41):
lot more. They're fighting up their top six consistently with
both drivers. The issue then comes down to strategy. They
always seem to get buff just as we think that
they're doing really well. They're up there, they go well,
they go well, they go well, coming pet and now
you're finishing tenth and eleventh? Why why did you get
(19:01):
them into the pets for what reason? Just let them
drive the race. So if these strategy errors keep occurring,
we could see Ferrari sort of stagnate as well. But
the team that does seem to be on a track
to fighting for third in the constructors is McLaren. Oh yeah,
(19:24):
that's and it's if you look at their pace, it's
a complete one eighty right. They were fighting for seventeenth
through nineteenth the start of the season, and now they're
fighting for P two. Oscar Piostree is talented. Landon Norris
is talented, right, and I think Oscar Piastre is a
(19:48):
good wake up call for Landon Norris as well. Look
at his talent. It's going to be a threat now
for Lando. Landon needs to bring it up. Now. He's
going to be like, all right, I'm the leader of
the steam and I have my number two drivers scoring
second insprent races and coming pretty close in the points.
All right, guys, let's step it up. Hand me the ball,
(20:09):
let's step it up to get this stuff going. And
I think they're going to do that coming up, especially
with low downface tracks coming up for the in the
second half of the season, McLaren are going to score
some really good points that they're going to catch up
really quickly because I don't see them having many strategy
errors in terms of race stage. They have their strategy
(20:30):
errors when it comes down to weather. They just still
don't know how to navigate that. And that's all right,
all right, because we know that once they have what
have strategy going in through the weekend, their racist strategies
are really good. They'll pit Lando when he needs to
put and get him out when he needs to get out.
So that's what I love about McLaren. As we go
(20:53):
through here in terms of Ashton and Ferrari and Mercedes, right,
Mercedes seem to sort of pick it up, but Aston
Martin is sort of fighting Ferrari now for that place.
There's going to be that battle. I'm McLaren are just
going to sneak in and be like, hey, guys, you
said that the Papyo cloud was out here, we are
and we're going past you. Guys while they're fighting for
(21:17):
scraps in around P ten to p six for Acidon
and Ferrari, McLaren will be like, you know what, let's
take the fight to Red Bull. I do believe that
they could be the team to take the fight red
Bull in the coming years.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
See I mean, based on the trajectory, it would make
make a lot of sense. I mean, we've been high,
especially now that the proof is in the pudding on McLaren,
I mean no reason why the steps. The steps are there,
the progression should be right in front of them. Ten
races left, by the way, two more in Europe, Dutch
Grand Prix next weekend, then we go to Mansa and
then the Asians swing in the fall back to this,
we still have the two races left in the States.
(21:51):
Of course, everybody here in Vegas Mchael excited for the
Las Vegas Grand Prix in November, so a very exciting stretch.
This has been that brief down time. I'll be fascinated
to see you know, You'll be You'll be digging through
all the all the data, all the practice reports as
soon as the teams come back out onto the grid
next week in preparation for the Dutch Grand Prix.
Speaker 1 (22:08):
Just before we sign off, Ben, just before we signed off, right,
If you remember in the very first episode this season,
of course you don't, I gave out a draft kings
Parlay that looked very interesting to me. I want to
know if you recorded.
Speaker 3 (22:29):
It, wasn't it Leclair to win the drivers? And uh.
Speaker 1 (22:33):
No, no, that that was a bet that I was
looking at. And I jumped on Charles Leclare same as you.
But I jumped on at one race Lake because I
got sixteen to one. I was looking at that, but
there was one a parlay that really looked good.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
Do you happened to win nine straight races?
Speaker 1 (22:55):
No, it was Max forst happened to win the drivers
and Red Bull to win the constructors. Do you remember
what the odds were for that?
Speaker 3 (23:05):
I mean you're getting you're getting plus money on that.
Speaker 1 (23:08):
That was even money.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
That was a plus one hundred even money.
Speaker 1 (23:11):
Yeah, that was that was even money.
Speaker 3 (23:13):
Does that seem like a steal now? I mean it's
always easy in retrospect.
Speaker 1 (23:17):
But yeah, I'm so I take that because again, given
what was happening last year. But I still say Charles
laclur on his on his own ticket, which let me
down completely. But I did say that there was a
reason when I was looking at any of the testing
that went on in Barcelona and Borrain. Right, A lot
(23:40):
of people think that looking at the testing that it
doesn't allow you to make any decisions come for the
season because a lot of teams would be holding back performance,
especially error wise. They'll be hiding a lot of things.
They were taking older engines that are worn out and
just crunning that this is going to be your pro
(24:05):
tip right, start paying attention to your preseason runs. It's
going to help you handicap pro tip and any features
in the Formula one market.
Speaker 3 (24:20):
Yeah. No, I think that's a very good way to
look at It's been very beneficial this year, especially with
how the preseason, especially Ashton Martin as well as Red
Bull has translated into twenty twenty three. So that's great.
Thanks for reminding me of that. Now I feel bad
I didn't get I did not make that bet, as
I'm sure anybody who didn't is also wondering the same thing.
So that'll do us for us today again. Stay tuned
(24:40):
later on in the podfeed this week, Michale with Michael
Lombardi talk in some general performance and leadership based topics,
talking Red Bull and Mercedes in particular. When we come
back next week in our full normal episode will resume
with the full breakdown Dutch Grand Prix coming up next weekend,
so really excited for that. As we now sign up
for Michael, I'm ben We'll catch you next time right
(25:02):
here on the Visa in Formula one Betting Podcast
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