August 23, 2023 • 25 mins
F1 is back from summer break and we could not be more excited. Let's start with the Pro Tip of the episode
The F1 Media timelines do not affect the betting strategy of the sport.
This is Pro Tip is important to remember. While Hamilton's contract talks are still going on it has no bearing on how we bet him. However, it is important to look at the team and see who might be a liability.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
A light sound away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michael, right, find the ship a ship, Get.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Already do what you're your hosts F one technical analyst
Mikail Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Hearing that music, you know what that means. We're back.
Summer break is over here on the VS and Formula
one Betting podcast. Michael, this year, I'm Ben. We're ready
to go, McHale. We have ten races left and we
go to the Dutch Grand previous weekend seems like from
these storylines it's just going to be yet another banner
weekend for the Dutch driver Max for stepping on his
(00:43):
home soil. But first off, it's great to actually have
a race week that we're back into. Have not had
this since the end of last month. It's SPA in Belgium,
so here we go. You know, as far as we
did a bunch of these podcasts, it was great, by
the way, Michael, listening to your episode with Michael Lombardi
just talking leadership and specifically with what's going on at
the Ferrari and alping teams right now here in the
(01:04):
summer break. But as we kind of get back into
it here, just to get people caught up to speed
first before we dive into the full track and what
you're looking for, what generally leads to success on this
track in particular, and then the bets. What you have
a number of bets already in pocket for this week
and at prices that are still very betable for our
listeners out there. What's the biggest thing that you feel
(01:24):
like from the summer break perspective is going to be
the main storyline actually worth paying attention to now heading
into this race outside of just the well Lewis Hamilton
doesn't signed a contract yet for Mercedes, which seems to
be dominating the headlines. I don't know how much that
really matters in the betting world, but what actually does
matter from what we've seen over the last month or so.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
So when we come to betting, right, whatever F one
media puts out sometimes is of no concern to F
one betting. That's going to be your approach chip. The
media will put out a bunch of things that don't
really in fact, the way you handicap race right, Lewis
Hamilton's contract is undecided. Oh, the same thing has happened
(02:06):
last year and the year before that when he lost
the championship to Maxi Stappin. There's all these things going on.
Will he come back to race and all this stuff.
It's not like Tom Brady in the NFL. We're like, hey,
I'm leaving and that Hey a couple months later, I'm back.
I'm throwing for Tampa Bay. Not the case here that
we know that Louis is going to get the contract Lewis.
We know what Lewis has in mind. He's chasing that
(02:29):
eighth World Championship title that no one has period. So
we know he's going to come back. Any other team
that he wants to race for absolutely not. Him and
Toto have a great dynamics. Take father's son, and Louis
is a prodigal son. He's going to race in Mercedes.
He believes in Mercedes. Done deal. That contract talk has
no effect at all, but it does affect someone in
(02:52):
the team, to be specific George Russell. And when we
talk about contracts, there's other drivers. So the way to
look at this if lows Hamilton's contract talks does not
affect us betting. What does it affect, Well, you're gonna
be looking at drivers with term contracts, I e. Daniel Ricardo,
He's only in for the rest of this season. He
(03:13):
does not have a contract for next year. Keep that
in mind. George Russell signed on for a couple of years.
Charles LaClair's contract is coming up to an end. There
are many drivers his contracts are coming up. There are
six seats still available for next season. But all that aside,
How does this effect in going to the Dutch Grand Prix. Well,
(03:35):
we know that George Russell has not had a great
run recently. He has been up in the points, but
he's gonna be looking all right. I had the summer break,
I had four weeks off to cool down, to refresh myself,
get back in the swing of things, come back out swinging,
and that's where we're gonna be looking. That's gonna be
your storylines, right, Everything now is gonna be storylines in
(03:56):
betting terms. So George Russell will be a major just
to a line coming in because he's going to be
wanting to prove himself again. He finished second at the
Dutch run Prix last season, so I do see him
carrying some momentum now having that refresh of the summer break.
He did his best everything. I think Mercedes is gonna
look to get some points as well in high points,
(04:18):
because they've actually been scoring some high points this time
actually getting on the podium. We saw Lewis Hamilton finish
on the podium back at spat so it's going to
be very interesting now moving forward. And George Russell is
going to want to prove himself to be a weathy
driver for the constructor otherwise they're not as ruthless as
Red boys. But his contract could be up and they
(04:38):
were like, yeah, we're not renewing it. Oh, we just
don't want your contract at all, and buy him out
the rest of his contract.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
George Russell podium at the Spanish Grand Prix. Since then
has not finished inside the top even just the top
four so far. The best finished since then was at
Silverstone when he took fifth for the Mercedes. But it
leads us into what we expected this track. Well, we
go to the Dutch Grand Prix and last year it
was really verstap in versus Smilton. Those two jousted went
back and forth, even though for Stappan had pole position,
(05:04):
Hamilton took the lead a couple of times, ultimately fell
off to fourth and the Mercedes each of them finished
in the top four. George Russell you mentioned on the
podium along with Charles Leclair and Ferrari. Last year Sergeio
Perez the second Red Bull driver fifth on the grid,
and then you had the two Alpines back then for
Andrew Alonzo and Estebanocon did finish sixth and ninth respective
Leorlando Norris was a seventh place finisher for McLaren, Carlos
(05:28):
Signs eighth, and then Lancetroll and Aston Martin that rounded
out the top ten. So when you looked just historically
at this track mchay looking at the Dutch Grand Prix,
first race in this term out of the summer break,
is what is a key characteristic or two here that
is either going to benefit some teams or hurt some
others based on what you've seen so far.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
So teams that it's going to hit teams that do
not like hide down force on their cars. Teams like
Williams do not like high down force tracks at all.
The car just does not performed that well. Another thing
to look at us when you do have high downfall stracks,
Mercedes becomes a key role because their car is built
(06:07):
for high downfall stracks over low downfalls or medium downfall stracks.
So you're gonna see Louis Sampton, George Russell come back
up take the fight, right. I mean know McLaren have
got some major upgrades. The car is working, Oskal Prstree
having a good run at the sprint races as well
as in the race time. Landon Or is seeing the
same as well. Right, So you're gonna have all these
(06:28):
teams now come into contentions. It's no longer just Reball
running away. Yes the car is absolutely blistering fast, but
we're not now looking at just the winner. We have
other concerns. There are other betting markets available to us
for Formula One, such as the podium finish is the
top six, top ten and much more so. I do
(06:50):
see Mercedes actually having a little bit more of an
advantage and a little bit coming back into this race.
Another team that do see being pulled back in the
fight for points to is Aston Martin, Fernando Orlonso will
try to remedy some of the pitfalls that Aston Martin
has made since they haven't been able to get that
many upgrades on the car to keep its performance from
(07:13):
the beginning of the season to where they finished before
with some break. So I do see Fernando Alonso want
to come back and fight back. However, the car is
not there to fight for the podium finish. But you
believe a top six finish is in the cars for
Fernando Alonso.
Speaker 3 (07:29):
And by the way, for Us Martin. Alonso has finished
no higher than fifth each of the last four races.
If you go back since his podium, his last podium
finished in Montreal and then lancetro it has been a
rough run of form, no finish higher than ninth over
the last five races. As we're looking at Aston Martin Mercedes,
which I have a feeling are going to be featured
in our second segment here, Mikhale on the full betting
(07:49):
card picks, want to take a few minutes though, because
this is a potentially big weekend just from a historical
F one perspective, and that revall revolves around the guy
who will win the drivers' championship, his team will win
the constructor championship. It's maxed for Stapping going for a
ninth consecutive win, basically unprecedented in Formula one history. He's
going to try to do that, and it's become a
(08:11):
talking point now mckail. Where the books, it's like every
week they kind of they tick up the odds. You
have to pay about twenty cents more juice. Basically every
single week went from for Stapping about a minus one
twenty favorite start of the year before even qualifying or
even before the first free practice started. I mean, now
he's well over three dollars, but if you've been betting
him every single week, you've won ten different times. And
(08:33):
the two races where he finished second and were so
early in the year where you only lost in the
know either one and a half or two units. If
you were just betting to win one unit, so you'd
be you'd basically be up seven and a half, not
eight units or so based on the full season. You're
just blindly betting for Stap in every single race week.
It is now the added factor that it's a race
he's won before defending champion, it is his home race
(08:54):
as well. So with that all being said here, Michail,
I know you always talk about value. I realize the
value is probably not there from a raw numbers perspective,
but still kind of feels at this point like you're
doing a disservice to yourself if you're betting this stuff
every week and you don't have for stepping on your
card in some form more fashion tied into something.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Absolutely. So there's a law of things when it comes
to Max with stepping. The major thing to take an
account here is red Bull is undefeated. Max is undefeated
in terms of track races and street races. Said your
parents is undefeated there, right, So it's been a Red
Bull win streak so far and Max has got a
(09:33):
really high chance, and you're going for the nine consecutive
win year, which is unprecedent. Yes, so is that going
to affect Max going forward? Is gonna How does an
effect a bets as well?
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Right?
Speaker 1 (09:42):
So that consecutive wins does not match at Max. All
Max cares about is winning period. There is nothing else.
If he wins another record, if you does something right
now with the way Red Bull and Max that's up,
it's like they're going to break records moving forward. Max
(10:04):
already broke a record with Red Bull when he first
signed on to be the youngest driver and no one
can break that record now ever, right it was, it
was foreseeable, this is going to happen, and we are
seeing happen. So if you're looking at Maxis Stapping to bet,
and you don't want to lay the minus four fifty
eight draftings right now, how do you bet them? Look
(10:25):
at the props market right now for the fastest lap
if you believe Max and do that, which again, high
down falls or low down force doesn't matter to red
bull red bulls really get it's his home ground, Brix.
He's gonna want to take maximum points coming out here.
Minus one thirty five not bad, right. If you're going
to keep searching for value here, you want to see
(10:46):
fastest qualifier and race winner. We've been betting that actually
quite quite frequently. Loocky at Maxis Stapplings. There's always value there.
That's not to minus two dollars for fastest qualified race winner.
What about fastest lap and race winner minus one twenty
five for maxiverstapp The books have adjusted. They know maxis
staff and is now dominant and not go. So if
(11:07):
you want to look at value, do I believe fust
slap and win the race. Maxistappen minus won twenty five
is to get bet absolutely I do he because while
again Max will disappear from the picture, it's going to
be who's fighting for podium, top six and points. That's
what the battle is going to be. It's gonna be
imperative moving forward, especially for McClaren, especially for Ferrari who
(11:31):
are just one point behind Aston Martin and asking about
looking to keep their position up their third and we
have Mercedes and second. That is vital now. So whatever
no one's going to try to contend against Max. What
they're going to try to contend is for the position
and the constructors and where they finished, because that gives
them allocation to CEFD running and to money. So going
(11:55):
back to Maxistappen, how do we bet them? Look for
value in other proper markets of bvailable to you? I
know over here in Vegas we have Caesars and William
hul coming out with a lot more props. Go on, bet,
look at other sports books if you need to get
that money.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
And for what is worth on that for stapp In
six different times out of the you know, we're looking
at twelve races, so far six times has held the
fastest lab moniker as far as pole position and winning
the race. That has happened at seven at different times
as well. So it's not like it like it hasn't
been as completely lucrative as the ten race wins. Not quite,
(12:31):
but still you're getting much better odds on something that
is still at the very least a fifty percent winning proposition,
any factor in a tract that has been very kind
to Max for stapping in the past. All right, that
is going to start the card there for one McHale Miranda.
When we come back the rest of McHale's card. As
we continue vsn F one Betting Podcast, we'll get the
rest of our Dutch grand pre plays right after this.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Welcome the Vison's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. Here're your hosts, F one
technical analystm Akale Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
As a reminded me of Mikale to fib and McHale
Range be here trucking all season long, every single week
on the Tennyson infla season now hard to beat the
tale and wrap it up to summer break well into
the second half of the season. So Max with staff
and he is leading off your card as and we'll
do the full recap here at the end you just explained,
I think a really good, really good angle for better
is to still try to take advantage of even as
(13:39):
books are adjusting. But let's go down to the bottom
end of the card, so to speak, as far as
points finishes here where it's been a you know, it's
been an interesting battle and release. I saw a shift
starting at spot where for the first time we had
several different drivers in the plus money at only you know,
in that plus you know one ten to one forty
range like actually legitimately good, where in the past there
(14:01):
were some races where he had twelve thirteen drivers minus
money to finish top ten, which is I've pointed out
many a time just ridiculous from a betting perspective, you know,
just as an overall outlook for what these books are doing.
But I've seen that switch, and a lot of that
is because there seems to be more parody and more
and more random outcomes in that eight through twelve range
so far. And part of the reason why is you
(14:23):
have Daniel Riccardo now back in the Formula One on
the grid among the twenty drivers. This will be his
third race here for Alpha TOWERI has not finished in
the points yet, but you've been intrigued in him in
the past. Are you going back to the well here
on mister Ricardo McHale.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Absolutely. As we said last segment, contract talks are going
to be important. We know Daniel Riccardo does not have
a seat for next year and he's going to be
wanting to have a seat for next it and on
a fully fledged contract. So that said, the second half
of the season is going to be Visa for Daniel
Ricardo to perform with Alpha Torri. He's also saying he's
getting the great feedback from the car that he requires
(14:58):
in order to drive, which it means the car is
suiting his driving style. He no longer has to feel
like a rookie in a car the same way he
did at Alpine previously known as Reynold when he was racing,
as well as McLaren when he was there last year,
which is a good thing given that I do believe
that Daniel Ricardo will look to get in the points here.
(15:19):
Hence why I've taken the plus three eighty on Daniel
Ricardo to finish top ten. Wow, it's a long shot
and people are gonna be looking at why is he
doing that. I'm doing this because Daniel Ricardo neither the
two races before to acclimate himself with the team, with
being on the grid and trying to find his pace.
The way he's running now, he is not finishing the points,
(15:42):
but he has had a positive start. This four weeks
off has helped him understand the car a bit more.
He's gonna have his notes he would have been taken
down and now who's ready to come back? And so
I think he's gonna come back really strong here because
again he did this when he was there at McLaren.
He took off and he won the race right and
Daniel Ricardo has got that mentality like all right, break
(16:03):
is done, now it's go time moving up. As I
did mention about Aston Martin and Fernando orlonso being in
the top six, you pointed out that he's been in
the top five in the last couple of races. I
believe that he's going to still carry this momentum on.
So I've taken Fernando Orlando top six plus one point fifty.
You will notice that a lot of my bets here
(16:25):
have plus money value. That's because the spokesbooks have not
caught on to what the storylines will be coming out
of the summer break. This is important. We can all jump.
It's like a refresh restart of the season. It's a
mini break that batters can go and get a little
bit more value. So that's that Fernando Lanso will want
to continue his streak of being in the points and
(16:49):
that three comes here with plus one fifty top six
finish amazing. I did mention briefly about Ferrari in the
last segments. Ferrari a sort of now stepping forward in
the right direction despite their leadership being questionable, and as
Michael Lobardi put it, there is no leadership there right now,
(17:11):
so no one knows who's to follow. But I do
believe that the cars have gotten a bit better and
they are more reliable now. With that said, Charles Leclair
finished on the podium this time last year at at Zanforth.
I think he's going to carry that again. There's certain
tracks that Charlie Clair does really well at the only
(17:32):
way he loses out here on the podium at plus
two sixty five, which is what I've gotten, man, is
if Ferrari stif the pitch stop and the strategy gets again.
If that does not happen, Charles is in a very
good position to finish on the podium, big kil.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
It's an Italian sized dif. Okay, let's just be honest
on that first and foremost. We've been burned by it
multiple times. But I mean you are right that the
at least the you know you think about the storylines
coming out of Summer Break, I mean, the tide seems
to have turned a little bit that My question is
is it enough of a sample size to really believe
in it long term when we know the issues are there,
(18:12):
you know, without with you know, without the actual the
driver himself, Charlotte Clair, because we've seen the evidence outstanding
as an individual, but seems like the issues are still
permeating throughout the team. So that's why I made a
little bit skeptical. But I mean it is clear that
the car itself, we watched the upgrades made and how
it performed at SPA with a pretty pretty clear podium
finished there for Leclaire, So I understand the thought process.
(18:33):
I just as always. You know, I'm here to just
temper the He's going.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
To be my one advice to Ferrari. If they are
listening in on the podcast, they are, I hope so Michael,
the body had got some pretty big things to say
about them. But here is my big thing moving forward
for the rest of this season. Stop worrying about the team.
Maximize the points wherever you can. Right if Carlos signed
(19:00):
is faster than Charles Leclair, Carlos sigence takes that position,
swap the cars around. If Charles is fast, if Charles
is ahead, if Charles is something, if Carlos is something.
Focus on the individual driver and their races. Do not
worry about the team. That's the only way they can
eliminate any strategy mess ups, because if they do anything
(19:22):
to worry about the team, it is going to trip
them up a lot. They need their own separate garages
to worry about their own cars. In doing so, it
will be beneficial for them moving up. The next one
that I have again is another podium finish and at
big odds as that as well. George Russell plus four hundred.
(19:45):
Now we know that George Russell has been able to
perform on the podium as well, and so struggling to
get in points position. I'm talking about high points position,
not low points position, and that high points position is
anywhere top six, sorry pudon top six plus. This is
vital because George russ is gonna want to secure his
contract with Mercedes. He's gonna want to keep that drive going.
(20:08):
Mixed su market has been doing incredibly well in the simulators.
Can that track over to the cars on race day? Maybe?
Maybe not. No way of knowing until we put it.
It's gonna be basically shorting his cat at that moment.
But right now, what we do know is George Russell
is being a phenomenal second driver to Lewis Hamilton. So
(20:30):
with that said, we wanted to keep his seat next
year and for full seable food chair. He's gonna want
to perform here and the rest of the season. So
plus four hundred podium finish, I think that's gonna be
a long shot value bet right there, I am saying
long shot value bet, but I do trust that George
Russe will want to carry his momentum, especially with the
(20:50):
refresh of the summer break again. He has finished on
the podium here last year, so I still see him
do that and the top of it all off, I
gotta have orang jemy. I have to burn. You know
this maxis Stap and minus four fifty, I will bite
the bullet. I want a win. I want to win.
I don't see anyone else to take for a win,
(21:10):
and I want to win. And as I pointed out,
there are other markets that you can bet maxis Stap
in mole value where you can do fastest lap and
racement at minus one twenty five. So I know I
have minus four fifty yet, but I might swap that
out for a minus one twenty five on that market.
I pay less of attacks on it for sure, and
(21:31):
there is one more thing to be wary about. But again,
Maxstappen for the win. I don't see anything happening now.
I know a lot of you will probably be saying, you,
guys haven't mentioned Sergio Paris. What's happening there?
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Well, I was saying, because your best essentially or indicating
a for stap in Leclair Russell podium and Fernando Alonso
in the top six, so I naturally go, all right, well, checko,
not not in your top three? Where do you have
him this week.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Actually, my best do not indicate a Max Russell and Charles.
What it does indicate is the Max and Charles with
maybe Russell coming up in there. We know Sergio Prayers
has had a drought in finishing in the top three,
and he's been hurried up by Christian Hornet to actually
get up there, and he has been doing well. I
think the summer break will help him reset and how
(22:24):
do you see him finishing on the podium. But the
reason I do not take Sergio on the podium is,
let me tell you what is odds for the podium
minus one ninety compared to a long shot bet of
George Russell, which I do believe he's going to want
to prove more than Sergio Prayers, because again everyone was
behind Alex Albert and Pierre Ghastly. We are behind them,
(22:45):
we are behind them, and then they get acts for
someone else. Right, I see Red Bull doing the same
thing here, we are behind Paris. We are behind Paris.
Oh goodbye, checker Audios were signing someone else near or
maybe Daniel Ricardo proved himself and comes back into Red Bull.
That's the reason why I'm staying away from Sergia Peis
right now, I need to see if this refresher worked
(23:06):
for him, if he's going to be come back in
the podium. That third position on the podium is up
for grabs by Lewis, by Lando, by Perez, by George
and even Oscar and maybe saying maybe here Carlos signs,
but I do believe Max Charles are on the podium,
(23:28):
and I like the long shot bet of fall to
one on Georgia Russell. That's the way I'm looking at it,
and that's my bets for the Dutch Grand Price.
Speaker 3 (23:37):
Go be sure, by the way, folks, give us a
pause right now if you have a second, give us
a little thumbs up, five star review if you don't mind,
and in some comments whatever you want to see a
home stretch of the betting season here in Formula One
last thought from you, McHale before we wrap up, because
you've not until you just dropped Oscar piastres name have
not really mentioned McLaren. I had piastre Go down involved
(23:59):
in the crash lap one at SPA last race out.
A bit of a dip for Orlando Norris after back
to back podium finishes, finished seventh. It's at spot to
Belgian Grand Prix. So you have McLaren Alpine amidst a
bunch of turmoil with not a lot of leadership there
and basically interim management around the boards. He did not
mention those two teams at all. Those have been teams
(24:19):
who've at least been in the points at the very
least you're over the last month or so when they've
been able to finish their full races. So expecting a
down week there as we close the show.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
I don't expect a down week for Alpine and for McLaren.
What I do expect is that Alpine have no idea
what they want. All they want is Akay, Pierre, Hey Aestebon,
do the best you can. I'm sorry, I'm not down
with that. I'm here putting my money where my mouth is.
I cannot deal with Hey, just race on. In terms
(24:50):
of McLaren, where I see them is McLaren have now
finally found their footing. NASA's going to come. What are
the goosts? As I said in previous episodes, Claren have
now been unleashed onto the rest off the grid above them,
which is Aston, Martin Ferrari, Mercedes right, Red Bull is
out but they need to figure out what their main
(25:13):
goal is. Until then, I'm gonna sort of be concious
about McLaren.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
That's a make a fair approach coming out because this
is again we'll see where drivers are at. Could you
see a little rust? It is the first race after
the summer break and we're into the home stretch. McHale
so excited for this. You will update everybody with any
bets you add at Mikhale, Miranda be as we wrap up,
So for Michaele and Ben, best of look with your
bets Dutch Grand Free. We go to Monsa next week.
Fund the stretch here on the F one calendar. As
(25:39):
we say so long on this edition of the Decent
Formula One Betting Podcast
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
A light sound away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michael, right, find the ship a ship, Get.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Already do what you're your hosts F one technical analyst
Mikail Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Hearing that music, you know what that means. We're back.
Summer break is over here on the VS and Formula
one Betting podcast. Michael, this year, I'm Ben. We're ready
to go, McHale. We have ten races left and we
go to the Dutch Grand previous weekend seems like from
these storylines it's just going to be yet another banner
weekend for the Dutch driver Max for stepping on his
(00:43):
home soil. But first off, it's great to actually have
a race week that we're back into. Have not had
this since the end of last month. It's SPA in Belgium,
so here we go. You know, as far as we
did a bunch of these podcasts, it was great, by
the way, Michael, listening to your episode with Michael Lombardi
just talking leadership and specifically with what's going on at
the Ferrari and alping teams right now here in the
(01:04):
summer break. But as we kind of get back into
it here, just to get people caught up to speed
first before we dive into the full track and what
you're looking for, what generally leads to success on this
track in particular, and then the bets. What you have
a number of bets already in pocket for this week
and at prices that are still very betable for our
listeners out there. What's the biggest thing that you feel
(01:24):
like from the summer break perspective is going to be
the main storyline actually worth paying attention to now heading
into this race outside of just the well Lewis Hamilton
doesn't signed a contract yet for Mercedes, which seems to
be dominating the headlines. I don't know how much that
really matters in the betting world, but what actually does
matter from what we've seen over the last month or so.
Speaker 1 (01:43):
So when we come to betting, right, whatever F one
media puts out sometimes is of no concern to F
one betting. That's going to be your approach chip. The
media will put out a bunch of things that don't
really in fact, the way you handicap race right, Lewis
Hamilton's contract is undecided. Oh, the same thing has happened
(02:06):
last year and the year before that when he lost
the championship to Maxi Stappin. There's all these things going on.
Will he come back to race and all this stuff.
It's not like Tom Brady in the NFL. We're like, hey,
I'm leaving and that Hey a couple months later, I'm back.
I'm throwing for Tampa Bay. Not the case here that
we know that Louis is going to get the contract Lewis.
We know what Lewis has in mind. He's chasing that
(02:29):
eighth World Championship title that no one has period. So
we know he's going to come back. Any other team
that he wants to race for absolutely not. Him and
Toto have a great dynamics. Take father's son, and Louis
is a prodigal son. He's going to race in Mercedes.
He believes in Mercedes. Done deal. That contract talk has
no effect at all, but it does affect someone in
(02:52):
the team, to be specific George Russell. And when we
talk about contracts, there's other drivers. So the way to
look at this if lows Hamilton's contract talks does not
affect us betting. What does it affect, Well, you're gonna
be looking at drivers with term contracts, I e. Daniel Ricardo,
He's only in for the rest of this season. He
(03:13):
does not have a contract for next year. Keep that
in mind. George Russell signed on for a couple of years.
Charles LaClair's contract is coming up to an end. There
are many drivers his contracts are coming up. There are
six seats still available for next season. But all that aside,
How does this effect in going to the Dutch Grand Prix. Well,
(03:35):
we know that George Russell has not had a great
run recently. He has been up in the points, but
he's gonna be looking all right. I had the summer break,
I had four weeks off to cool down, to refresh myself,
get back in the swing of things, come back out swinging,
and that's where we're gonna be looking. That's gonna be
your storylines, right, Everything now is gonna be storylines in
(03:56):
betting terms. So George Russell will be a major just
to a line coming in because he's going to be
wanting to prove himself again. He finished second at the
Dutch run Prix last season, so I do see him
carrying some momentum now having that refresh of the summer break.
He did his best everything. I think Mercedes is gonna
look to get some points as well in high points,
(04:18):
because they've actually been scoring some high points this time
actually getting on the podium. We saw Lewis Hamilton finish
on the podium back at spat so it's going to
be very interesting now moving forward. And George Russell is
going to want to prove himself to be a weathy
driver for the constructor otherwise they're not as ruthless as
Red boys. But his contract could be up and they
(04:38):
were like, yeah, we're not renewing it. Oh, we just
don't want your contract at all, and buy him out
the rest of his contract.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
George Russell podium at the Spanish Grand Prix. Since then
has not finished inside the top even just the top
four so far. The best finished since then was at
Silverstone when he took fifth for the Mercedes. But it
leads us into what we expected this track. Well, we
go to the Dutch Grand Prix and last year it
was really verstap in versus Smilton. Those two jousted went
back and forth, even though for Stappan had pole position,
(05:04):
Hamilton took the lead a couple of times, ultimately fell
off to fourth and the Mercedes each of them finished
in the top four. George Russell you mentioned on the
podium along with Charles Leclair and Ferrari. Last year Sergeio
Perez the second Red Bull driver fifth on the grid,
and then you had the two Alpines back then for
Andrew Alonzo and Estebanocon did finish sixth and ninth respective
Leorlando Norris was a seventh place finisher for McLaren, Carlos
(05:28):
Signs eighth, and then Lancetroll and Aston Martin that rounded
out the top ten. So when you looked just historically
at this track mchay looking at the Dutch Grand Prix,
first race in this term out of the summer break,
is what is a key characteristic or two here that
is either going to benefit some teams or hurt some
others based on what you've seen so far.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
So teams that it's going to hit teams that do
not like hide down force on their cars. Teams like
Williams do not like high down force tracks at all.
The car just does not performed that well. Another thing
to look at us when you do have high downfall stracks,
Mercedes becomes a key role because their car is built
(06:07):
for high downfall stracks over low downfalls or medium downfall stracks.
So you're gonna see Louis Sampton, George Russell come back
up take the fight, right. I mean know McLaren have
got some major upgrades. The car is working, Oskal Prstree
having a good run at the sprint races as well
as in the race time. Landon Or is seeing the
same as well. Right, So you're gonna have all these
(06:28):
teams now come into contentions. It's no longer just Reball
running away. Yes the car is absolutely blistering fast, but
we're not now looking at just the winner. We have
other concerns. There are other betting markets available to us
for Formula One, such as the podium finish is the
top six, top ten and much more so. I do
(06:50):
see Mercedes actually having a little bit more of an
advantage and a little bit coming back into this race.
Another team that do see being pulled back in the
fight for points to is Aston Martin, Fernando Orlonso will
try to remedy some of the pitfalls that Aston Martin
has made since they haven't been able to get that
many upgrades on the car to keep its performance from
(07:13):
the beginning of the season to where they finished before
with some break. So I do see Fernando Alonso want
to come back and fight back. However, the car is
not there to fight for the podium finish. But you
believe a top six finish is in the cars for
Fernando Alonso.
Speaker 3 (07:29):
And by the way, for Us Martin. Alonso has finished
no higher than fifth each of the last four races.
If you go back since his podium, his last podium
finished in Montreal and then lancetro it has been a
rough run of form, no finish higher than ninth over
the last five races. As we're looking at Aston Martin Mercedes,
which I have a feeling are going to be featured
in our second segment here, Mikhale on the full betting
(07:49):
card picks, want to take a few minutes though, because
this is a potentially big weekend just from a historical
F one perspective, and that revall revolves around the guy
who will win the drivers' championship, his team will win
the constructor championship. It's maxed for Stapping going for a
ninth consecutive win, basically unprecedented in Formula one history. He's
going to try to do that, and it's become a
(08:11):
talking point now mckail. Where the books, it's like every
week they kind of they tick up the odds. You
have to pay about twenty cents more juice. Basically every
single week went from for Stapping about a minus one
twenty favorite start of the year before even qualifying or
even before the first free practice started. I mean, now
he's well over three dollars, but if you've been betting
him every single week, you've won ten different times. And
(08:33):
the two races where he finished second and were so
early in the year where you only lost in the
know either one and a half or two units. If
you were just betting to win one unit, so you'd
be you'd basically be up seven and a half, not
eight units or so based on the full season. You're
just blindly betting for Stap in every single race week.
It is now the added factor that it's a race
he's won before defending champion, it is his home race
(08:54):
as well. So with that all being said here, Michail,
I know you always talk about value. I realize the
value is probably not there from a raw numbers perspective,
but still kind of feels at this point like you're
doing a disservice to yourself if you're betting this stuff
every week and you don't have for stepping on your
card in some form more fashion tied into something.
Speaker 1 (09:11):
Absolutely. So there's a law of things when it comes
to Max with stepping. The major thing to take an
account here is red Bull is undefeated. Max is undefeated
in terms of track races and street races. Said your
parents is undefeated there, right, So it's been a Red
Bull win streak so far and Max has got a
(09:33):
really high chance, and you're going for the nine consecutive
win year, which is unprecedent. Yes, so is that going
to affect Max going forward? Is gonna How does an
effect a bets as well?
Speaker 3 (09:42):
Right?
Speaker 1 (09:42):
So that consecutive wins does not match at Max. All
Max cares about is winning period. There is nothing else.
If he wins another record, if you does something right
now with the way Red Bull and Max that's up,
it's like they're going to break records moving forward. Max
(10:04):
already broke a record with Red Bull when he first
signed on to be the youngest driver and no one
can break that record now ever, right it was, it
was foreseeable, this is going to happen, and we are
seeing happen. So if you're looking at Maxis Stapping to bet,
and you don't want to lay the minus four fifty
eight draftings right now, how do you bet them? Look
(10:25):
at the props market right now for the fastest lap
if you believe Max and do that, which again, high
down falls or low down force doesn't matter to red
bull red bulls really get it's his home ground, Brix.
He's gonna want to take maximum points coming out here.
Minus one thirty five not bad, right. If you're going
to keep searching for value here, you want to see
(10:46):
fastest qualifier and race winner. We've been betting that actually
quite quite frequently. Loocky at Maxis Stapplings. There's always value there.
That's not to minus two dollars for fastest qualified race winner.
What about fastest lap and race winner minus one twenty
five for maxiverstapp The books have adjusted. They know maxis
staff and is now dominant and not go. So if
(11:07):
you want to look at value, do I believe fust
slap and win the race. Maxistappen minus won twenty five
is to get bet absolutely I do he because while
again Max will disappear from the picture, it's going to
be who's fighting for podium, top six and points. That's
what the battle is going to be. It's gonna be
imperative moving forward, especially for McClaren, especially for Ferrari who
(11:31):
are just one point behind Aston Martin and asking about
looking to keep their position up their third and we
have Mercedes and second. That is vital now. So whatever
no one's going to try to contend against Max. What
they're going to try to contend is for the position
and the constructors and where they finished, because that gives
them allocation to CEFD running and to money. So going
(11:55):
back to Maxistappen, how do we bet them? Look for
value in other proper markets of bvailable to you? I
know over here in Vegas we have Caesars and William
hul coming out with a lot more props. Go on, bet,
look at other sports books if you need to get
that money.
Speaker 3 (12:11):
And for what is worth on that for stapp In
six different times out of the you know, we're looking
at twelve races, so far six times has held the
fastest lab moniker as far as pole position and winning
the race. That has happened at seven at different times
as well. So it's not like it like it hasn't
been as completely lucrative as the ten race wins. Not quite,
(12:31):
but still you're getting much better odds on something that
is still at the very least a fifty percent winning proposition,
any factor in a tract that has been very kind
to Max for stapping in the past. All right, that
is going to start the card there for one McHale Miranda.
When we come back the rest of McHale's card. As
we continue vsn F one Betting Podcast, we'll get the
rest of our Dutch grand pre plays right after this.
Speaker 2 (13:03):
Welcome the Vison's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. Here're your hosts, F one
technical analystm Akale Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (13:17):
As a reminded me of Mikale to fib and McHale
Range be here trucking all season long, every single week
on the Tennyson infla season now hard to beat the
tale and wrap it up to summer break well into
the second half of the season. So Max with staff
and he is leading off your card as and we'll
do the full recap here at the end you just explained,
I think a really good, really good angle for better
is to still try to take advantage of even as
(13:39):
books are adjusting. But let's go down to the bottom
end of the card, so to speak, as far as
points finishes here where it's been a you know, it's
been an interesting battle and release. I saw a shift
starting at spot where for the first time we had
several different drivers in the plus money at only you know,
in that plus you know one ten to one forty
range like actually legitimately good, where in the past there
(14:01):
were some races where he had twelve thirteen drivers minus
money to finish top ten, which is I've pointed out
many a time just ridiculous from a betting perspective, you know,
just as an overall outlook for what these books are doing.
But I've seen that switch, and a lot of that
is because there seems to be more parody and more
and more random outcomes in that eight through twelve range
so far. And part of the reason why is you
(14:23):
have Daniel Riccardo now back in the Formula One on
the grid among the twenty drivers. This will be his
third race here for Alpha TOWERI has not finished in
the points yet, but you've been intrigued in him in
the past. Are you going back to the well here
on mister Ricardo McHale.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
Absolutely. As we said last segment, contract talks are going
to be important. We know Daniel Riccardo does not have
a seat for next year and he's going to be
wanting to have a seat for next it and on
a fully fledged contract. So that said, the second half
of the season is going to be Visa for Daniel
Ricardo to perform with Alpha Torri. He's also saying he's
getting the great feedback from the car that he requires
(14:58):
in order to drive, which it means the car is
suiting his driving style. He no longer has to feel
like a rookie in a car the same way he
did at Alpine previously known as Reynold when he was racing,
as well as McLaren when he was there last year,
which is a good thing given that I do believe
that Daniel Ricardo will look to get in the points here.
(15:19):
Hence why I've taken the plus three eighty on Daniel
Ricardo to finish top ten. Wow, it's a long shot
and people are gonna be looking at why is he
doing that. I'm doing this because Daniel Ricardo neither the
two races before to acclimate himself with the team, with
being on the grid and trying to find his pace.
The way he's running now, he is not finishing the points,
(15:42):
but he has had a positive start. This four weeks
off has helped him understand the car a bit more.
He's gonna have his notes he would have been taken
down and now who's ready to come back? And so
I think he's gonna come back really strong here because
again he did this when he was there at McLaren.
He took off and he won the race right and
Daniel Ricardo has got that mentality like all right, break
(16:03):
is done, now it's go time moving up. As I
did mention about Aston Martin and Fernando orlonso being in
the top six, you pointed out that he's been in
the top five in the last couple of races. I
believe that he's going to still carry this momentum on.
So I've taken Fernando Orlando top six plus one point fifty.
You will notice that a lot of my bets here
(16:25):
have plus money value. That's because the spokesbooks have not
caught on to what the storylines will be coming out
of the summer break. This is important. We can all jump.
It's like a refresh restart of the season. It's a
mini break that batters can go and get a little
bit more value. So that's that Fernando Lanso will want
to continue his streak of being in the points and
(16:49):
that three comes here with plus one fifty top six
finish amazing. I did mention briefly about Ferrari in the
last segments. Ferrari a sort of now stepping forward in
the right direction despite their leadership being questionable, and as
Michael Lobardi put it, there is no leadership there right now,
(17:11):
so no one knows who's to follow. But I do
believe that the cars have gotten a bit better and
they are more reliable now. With that said, Charles Leclair
finished on the podium this time last year at at Zanforth.
I think he's going to carry that again. There's certain
tracks that Charlie Clair does really well at the only
(17:32):
way he loses out here on the podium at plus
two sixty five, which is what I've gotten, man, is
if Ferrari stif the pitch stop and the strategy gets again.
If that does not happen, Charles is in a very
good position to finish on the podium, big kil.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
It's an Italian sized dif. Okay, let's just be honest
on that first and foremost. We've been burned by it
multiple times. But I mean you are right that the
at least the you know you think about the storylines
coming out of Summer Break, I mean, the tide seems
to have turned a little bit that My question is
is it enough of a sample size to really believe
in it long term when we know the issues are there,
(18:12):
you know, without with you know, without the actual the
driver himself, Charlotte Clair, because we've seen the evidence outstanding
as an individual, but seems like the issues are still
permeating throughout the team. So that's why I made a
little bit skeptical. But I mean it is clear that
the car itself, we watched the upgrades made and how
it performed at SPA with a pretty pretty clear podium
finished there for Leclaire, So I understand the thought process.
(18:33):
I just as always. You know, I'm here to just
temper the He's going.
Speaker 1 (18:37):
To be my one advice to Ferrari. If they are
listening in on the podcast, they are, I hope so Michael,
the body had got some pretty big things to say
about them. But here is my big thing moving forward
for the rest of this season. Stop worrying about the team.
Maximize the points wherever you can. Right if Carlos signed
(19:00):
is faster than Charles Leclair, Carlos sigence takes that position,
swap the cars around. If Charles is fast, if Charles
is ahead, if Charles is something, if Carlos is something.
Focus on the individual driver and their races. Do not
worry about the team. That's the only way they can
eliminate any strategy mess ups, because if they do anything
(19:22):
to worry about the team, it is going to trip
them up a lot. They need their own separate garages
to worry about their own cars. In doing so, it
will be beneficial for them moving up. The next one
that I have again is another podium finish and at
big odds as that as well. George Russell plus four hundred.
(19:45):
Now we know that George Russell has been able to
perform on the podium as well, and so struggling to
get in points position. I'm talking about high points position,
not low points position, and that high points position is
anywhere top six, sorry pudon top six plus. This is
vital because George russ is gonna want to secure his
contract with Mercedes. He's gonna want to keep that drive going.
(20:08):
Mixed su market has been doing incredibly well in the simulators.
Can that track over to the cars on race day? Maybe?
Maybe not. No way of knowing until we put it.
It's gonna be basically shorting his cat at that moment.
But right now, what we do know is George Russell
is being a phenomenal second driver to Lewis Hamilton. So
(20:30):
with that said, we wanted to keep his seat next
year and for full seable food chair. He's gonna want
to perform here and the rest of the season. So
plus four hundred podium finish, I think that's gonna be
a long shot value bet right there, I am saying
long shot value bet, but I do trust that George
Russe will want to carry his momentum, especially with the
(20:50):
refresh of the summer break again. He has finished on
the podium here last year, so I still see him
do that and the top of it all off, I
gotta have orang jemy. I have to burn. You know
this maxis Stap and minus four fifty, I will bite
the bullet. I want a win. I want to win.
I don't see anyone else to take for a win,
(21:10):
and I want to win. And as I pointed out,
there are other markets that you can bet maxis Stap
in mole value where you can do fastest lap and
racement at minus one twenty five. So I know I
have minus four fifty yet, but I might swap that
out for a minus one twenty five on that market.
I pay less of attacks on it for sure, and
(21:31):
there is one more thing to be wary about. But again,
Maxstappen for the win. I don't see anything happening now.
I know a lot of you will probably be saying, you,
guys haven't mentioned Sergio Paris. What's happening there?
Speaker 3 (21:47):
Well, I was saying, because your best essentially or indicating
a for stap in Leclair Russell podium and Fernando Alonso
in the top six, so I naturally go, all right, well, checko,
not not in your top three? Where do you have
him this week.
Speaker 1 (22:02):
Actually, my best do not indicate a Max Russell and Charles.
What it does indicate is the Max and Charles with
maybe Russell coming up in there. We know Sergio Prayers
has had a drought in finishing in the top three,
and he's been hurried up by Christian Hornet to actually
get up there, and he has been doing well. I
think the summer break will help him reset and how
(22:24):
do you see him finishing on the podium. But the
reason I do not take Sergio on the podium is,
let me tell you what is odds for the podium
minus one ninety compared to a long shot bet of
George Russell, which I do believe he's going to want
to prove more than Sergio Prayers, because again everyone was
behind Alex Albert and Pierre Ghastly. We are behind them,
(22:45):
we are behind them, and then they get acts for
someone else. Right, I see Red Bull doing the same
thing here, we are behind Paris. We are behind Paris.
Oh goodbye, checker Audios were signing someone else near or
maybe Daniel Ricardo proved himself and comes back into Red Bull.
That's the reason why I'm staying away from Sergia Peis
right now, I need to see if this refresher worked
(23:06):
for him, if he's going to be come back in
the podium. That third position on the podium is up
for grabs by Lewis, by Lando, by Perez, by George
and even Oscar and maybe saying maybe here Carlos signs,
but I do believe Max Charles are on the podium,
(23:28):
and I like the long shot bet of fall to
one on Georgia Russell. That's the way I'm looking at it,
and that's my bets for the Dutch Grand Price.
Speaker 3 (23:37):
Go be sure, by the way, folks, give us a
pause right now if you have a second, give us
a little thumbs up, five star review if you don't mind,
and in some comments whatever you want to see a
home stretch of the betting season here in Formula One
last thought from you, McHale before we wrap up, because
you've not until you just dropped Oscar piastres name have
not really mentioned McLaren. I had piastre Go down involved
(23:59):
in the crash lap one at SPA last race out.
A bit of a dip for Orlando Norris after back
to back podium finishes, finished seventh. It's at spot to
Belgian Grand Prix. So you have McLaren Alpine amidst a
bunch of turmoil with not a lot of leadership there
and basically interim management around the boards. He did not
mention those two teams at all. Those have been teams
(24:19):
who've at least been in the points at the very
least you're over the last month or so when they've
been able to finish their full races. So expecting a
down week there as we close the show.
Speaker 1 (24:28):
I don't expect a down week for Alpine and for McLaren.
What I do expect is that Alpine have no idea
what they want. All they want is Akay, Pierre, Hey Aestebon,
do the best you can. I'm sorry, I'm not down
with that. I'm here putting my money where my mouth is.
I cannot deal with Hey, just race on. In terms
(24:50):
of McLaren, where I see them is McLaren have now
finally found their footing. NASA's going to come. What are
the goosts? As I said in previous episodes, Claren have
now been unleashed onto the rest off the grid above them,
which is Aston, Martin Ferrari, Mercedes right, Red Bull is
out but they need to figure out what their main
(25:13):
goal is. Until then, I'm gonna sort of be concious
about McLaren.
Speaker 3 (25:18):
That's a make a fair approach coming out because this
is again we'll see where drivers are at. Could you
see a little rust? It is the first race after
the summer break and we're into the home stretch. McHale
so excited for this. You will update everybody with any
bets you add at Mikhale, Miranda be as we wrap up,
So for Michaele and Ben, best of look with your
bets Dutch Grand Free. We go to Monsa next week.
Fund the stretch here on the F one calendar. As
(25:39):
we say so long on this edition of the Decent
Formula One Betting Podcast
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