November 1, 2023 • 25 mins
In our latest episode, we're diving deep into the dramatic Mexico Grand Prix, where emotions ran high and fortunes were won and lost on the track. Join us as we dissect the heartbreaking moment when Sergio Perez, the hometown hero, crashed out on the very first lap at Turn 1, leaving fans in disbelief.
We'll also discuss the impatience of Yuki Tsunoda, the young sensation in Formula 1, and the lessons to be learned from his race day antics.
But that's not all! We reveal our bold move – a futures bet on Lewis Hamilton for the remainder of the season. Get ready for an exciting recap of the Mexico Grand Prix and insights into the high-stakes world of Formula 1. Don't miss it! #MexicoGP #F1Recap #Hamilton #Perez #Tsunoda 🏁🎙️🏆
Subscribe!: https://www.vsin.com/podcast/vsin-f1-betting-podcast/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Ay Flight Down, Away we go.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
I'll check this.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Alegend absolutely animal the only F one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Michael right, find that chicken ship can already do.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michale Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
We're back.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
Everybody vs in Formula one Betting podcast with Michale Miranda
are technical analyst. I'm Ben Wilson. Really fun race weekend.
Michale was texting me as the race was going on.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
I was not watching live because I hosted live bet
Sunday on the NFL side.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
McHale, So I was trying to watch about thirteen NFL
games in real time and was dvring the race to
watch daty, but you were fired up. One of the
plays we gave out Mercedes double top six does get there.
It's also another race win for Max for Stappit in
the Red Bull, setting these single season record sixteen wins
now and so big weekend though for Mercedes. I want
(00:59):
to start there because the chief technical officer, Mike Elliot
announces as a recording today on Halloween he is leaving
the Mercedes team. So good weekend, but also some shakeups
there in the front office so to speak.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, Mercedes has been in this situation where they're trying
to figure out how can they keep the team motivation
and morale high because they start off twenty twenty one
on the back for twenty Sorry with that Lewis Samilton
not winning that championship in twenty one, that was a
big let out for them. Come into twenty two, Ferrari
and redbel were fighting for everything in the Constructors and
(01:33):
Drivers cover. Twenty three it has been completely red Bull right.
Mercedes has been out of the conversation. All we get
to see are glimpses every now and then that Lewis
is in this, George's in this, We're looking at this right.
They have not been in the conversation as holy have
they have been in the past couple of seasons. So
(01:57):
with this, with the chief technical officer Michaeliot leaving after
eleven years, he's the one I believe who bought in
Louis Ampton. He was getting started from McLaren into Mercedes.
This is going to be an interesting move. Here's why
we are having a lot of Mercedes personnel depart from
(02:18):
the team and go into teams that are up and coming. Right,
So we've seen James Vows move into their team principal
role at Williams. We're seeing a lot of BMW drivers
and old BMW analysts come in such as Mike crack
At Asthmas and everything, and we're seeing Mercedes depart. So
(02:43):
could we see Mike Elliott take his experiences knowledge and
assist James Vows in bringing back what Williams used to be? Maybe?
Or is he's just looking for a break. There's a
lot of things here that is still up in the
air that we need to see. But if I see
Mike Eli go down to Williams I think we can
(03:09):
keep betting Williams next year. I think they're going to
be a big powerhouse to come into next season, especially
for the midfield. I think they can taking the fight
a bit closer now.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
As far as actual Mercedes, though for the rule out
of the final three races this season, you're not really
believing though this will have any negative impact?
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Is that fair to say not too much of a
negative impact. I got to say Mercedes is a well
oiled machine. They know who they are, They've had their
brand arm for years. Yes, it sucks to lose many
many key players, but as you move forward, like sometimes
(03:47):
you have to cut off a limb to save the body.
And I think Mercedes are interesting where maybe they need
to upgrade something a part of them in order to
move forward. And I think Mike is like, I don't
think this for me because he just got Puns his
role after James Allison. They had a big swap over
in leadership at Mercedes, So looking at this, I think
(04:11):
he's looking for a bit of a change here moving forward.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
A big reason why we bring this up now coming
out of the race from Mexico and we now.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Go to Salpolo this week. We'll have the full.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Breakdown pod here later in the week in your podcast feed.
But there's some interesting futures opportunities out there, even though
the season has already been decided with Thread Bull and
Max verstapp and winning the Drivers' championship, Red Bull racing
through and taking the Constructor's title going away.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Interesting prop out there right now. I've seen a couple
of sportsbook offer this.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Mikhale I looked at this at Caesar's where I found
the best line here it is winner of the Drivers'
Championship without Max for stap and the rest of the season.
Sergio Perez your favorite minus one seventy five. He has
a twenty point lead over Lewis Hamilton. That gap was
just cutting half by Perez's DNF and last place finish
after the first lap and Lewis Hamilton getting second to
(05:02):
cut in with his twenty points. Hamilton is plus one
thirty five. That's a really intriguing bet. You now go
to a track in sal Paulo where Mercedes had a
lot of success last season. It was George Russell's first
ever career win. Down to the final three races. What
would you give a fair price on on Hamilton actually
catching Perez for second in the Driver's Championship And is
(05:24):
that worth a bet in your mind?
Speaker 1 (05:26):
So we spoke about those on beforegoings and I told
you jump on that right now because that's a good
bet right there. The books are not evaluating Perez effectively
and they are doing a right so we are in
this little limbo where they probably might get this correct
after Brazil. So for those if you listen to the
podcast on Tuesday, October thirty first or happy, how to
(05:49):
wain to everyone or tomorrow November first, right, be weary.
The books will start to overcorrect numbers, but they're always
going to be looking after futures markets for next season.
Right to pay attention to this. So when I hear
say your Paris is your favorite, Yes, he is leading
the championship above Hamilton, but you have got to look
(06:16):
at Paris where he's qualifying, where he's converting that qualifying
pace two Right. I spoke about this in the preview
episode for Mexico that his qualifying pace is at ten
point seventy one, which means on average he is qualifying
anywhere but between p. Twelve to P eight that's not great,
(06:39):
especially if you're in a rebel where maxistappened is qualifying
much higher that at one point seven Right, So anywhere
P three jipole position, that's where Max is qualifying in
recent TERMOI, especially after the Ferraris have got better qualifying
pace over one lap.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
If that's where Peris is now moving from qualifying to race,
his average raised finishing position is five point seventy one,
which means Paris is only making up five places, which
means the cars have veead of him. Even though they
are much slower technically on paper, the drivers are much
more consistent in keeping anything behind them right. Sergio banks
(07:22):
on a lot of things, and he's been making a
little bit more riskier moves, and I think this is
going to catch up to him, especially next year when
he's contracted up. Sergio Perez needs to be a little
bit more vigilant now as we move in and towards
the end of the season, going to next season, kids,
trust me, there's rumors around the paddock and everything. Look
(07:43):
at Daniel Riccardo. Not yet for me, not yet, but
again Sergio Perez is in the hot seat. After Yuki's
great performance. We see that consistently. Daniel Riccardo coming back
from his little early retirement that he had off on
the sidelines. Liam Lawson come and who did great. There
are many people in the driver can and driver pool
(08:05):
in f Formula TU and on the reserves where Sergia
Peers might lose. See we saw McClaren do this to
Daniel Ricardo. Do you get Oscar Pias Street. You can
cut someone's contract extremely short, buy them out of the
contract and focus on building your season.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
No seed hotter, certainly than Sergio pears right now, even
with the team principal Christian Horner coming out and saying
it wasn't his faults. That was the quote coming out
after the race for the first lap crash. But you're
you're totally right, and that it is a position where
this bet you're sort of fading pair as the horrible
run of form he's in for the final few races
and you can turn around and then also its front
(08:42):
of you and it's I know, I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Since Azerbaijan, that's what since like April April May of
this year, we're right now in November, right, We've got
to look at that this is not just a slip
in performance. This is an absolute just may of anything
that there is right. Either Sergia Paris needs to refamiliarize
(09:05):
himself with the car, or he needs to go and
tell Christian, hey, I don't know what you guys are
doing to the upgrades. It's either seeing Max more and
taking away my thing, or like I just don't understand
the car. But we need to sort this out right
now before we go into into winter testing, before we
get back next season, because if this is this does
all get sorted out rebel is more than happy to
(09:29):
take back Daniel Ricardo. Remember he has won multiple races,
he's been very consistent as the second driver when they
promoted max Is Stapping back in twenty eighteen. So we
got to look at this whole picture, and I don't
think the bugs are actually taking this into consideration. So
minus one thirty five I think we saw on minus
one twenty five somewhere as well.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
Plus that number, plus one thirty five way better than
minus plus one thirty five on Lewis Hamilton.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
No, so I'm talking about Sergia Paris.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
He's like minus one seventy five.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Yeah, very expensive price for a guy who was not
finished on the podium since Minza, which was.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
For a second driver who's not being a good second driver.
Color signs. George Russell asked a Pias through Landinoris that
one keep slipping back and forth. They are better second
drivers than Sergio Paris. This is very important because the
McLarens are showing great pace and if Fernando Alonso gets
that new upgrades working, he could keep say your prayers
even further back right. The only reason why Sergia Praiers
(10:29):
is stead of getting more and more positions in the race.
Is because as Martin is ffording further and further away,
McLaren seemed to throw away some of their strategies when
it comes to qualifying, as we said for Landonorris, so
it says being lucky for Sergio Paris. But if these
teams get everything situated right, that's going to be a
big difference moving forward, and lou Sampton is going to
(10:51):
take full advantage of this, and Mercedes is gonna take
for advanced because again all the teams are now scrapping
for positions in the Constructors. Yes, the title might be
wrapped up, but where you finished is important because you're
talking about tens of millions between PT and P two,
P three, P four. Where you finished in the Constructors
(11:11):
that could be life changing money for a lot and
we got when we come back from the break here,
we're going to talk about a team who sort of
is squandering this opportunity and we need to talk about
him really, really extensively. But the bucks right now for
Sergio Prayers are not looking at this with an objective eye.
They're just seeing red bull overpower of a Mercedes. But
(11:32):
they're not taking the consideration the driver, Sergio Perez, what
he's doing in the races, in qualifying, and.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
Your bet on that.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Again, it's Lewis Hamilton plus one thirty five the best
you can find to finish higher than Sergio Perez winner
without max for stapping in the Driver's Championship. It's just
that there will be consistency in that high level of
pace we've seen out of the Mercedes continues over the
last three races of the season. You mentioned the constructors
right now too, Mercedes trying to protect a twenty two
point lead over Ferrari with three races to go for
(12:03):
that P. Two position, red Bull only about three hundred
and sixty points up. Yeah, it's you know, just been
slightly lopsided this year. Anyway, I really like that bet though,
I'm glad we were able to look at that. I'll
bring up what the early future odds are for next
year because Draftkins is released it future odds for twenty
twenty four before the twenty.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Three season is even wrapped up.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
We'll see if there's anything worth getting a bet in
at this point, if you really are interested in having
your money.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Help for basically a year plus.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
We'll talk about that next get some other thoughts from Michale.
We have our second segment of the VC Formula one
Racing Podcast. It's coming up right after this.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst Michael Mourray and hand betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
All right, Michael, hard to believe, but futures for twenty
twenty four already out. We haven't even finished this season,
even though, as we just mentioned, the title is Red
Bulls and Max for Stappins, but DraftKings odds are out
Max for Stappin minus three sixty favorite. No discount here
if you are looking to bet Max or Stappin, at
least the DraftKings. First book I've seen to post twenty
twenty four World Championship ods Rebel to win the Constructors
(13:25):
minus two fifty.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Now, what were your first thoughts?
Speaker 4 (13:28):
You're Makae looking at the rest of the odds boards,
with the two McLaren's tied for seconds on your Driver's
Championship odds board Piastrian Norris each nine to one.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
I think we are betting a little bit more optimistic there,
especially that we have Lewis Hamilton at twelve to one.
The one that does surprise me that they have Daniel
Riccardo higher at twenty to one over George Russell twenty two.
I'm sorry to say, but Daniel Ricardo has been absent
for most of the season, given that he came in late,
(14:00):
broke his hand during a quote fine crash and then
has just come back. We've only seen gannet ricarded for
three races, and the books are really hard on them.
I don't think that's the right price. So if you
believe in George Russell, twenty two to one looks interesting,
and then they have Charles the twenty two, Carlos to
twenty two, Sergio A twenty eight.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Isn't so Michail isn't. On the the Ricardo v. Paris
side of it. Isn't that basically with the rumblings of
maybe Perez gets replaced, you mentioned he's still under contract
for next year, so isn't. Essentially the bet on either
Ricardo or Perez is that they are going to be
the number two Red Bull driver, and basically just by
how great that car is, automatically, whichever one ends up
(14:42):
being that guy is automatically going to have their price
cut well short, to the point they'll likely be the
second favorite. Am I overlooking something here? Isn't that basically
what we're breaking down on that front.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
That's basically war breaking down. And again we keep saying
that Rappo have a contract with Sergio Paris, right, but
you forget if Tory don't have a contract with Daniel Riccardo.
Daniel Ricardo has a contract with Red Bull, who was
on loan South for Tori. Remember that, so Redbook will
still have the contract for Sergia Parros and swap them around.
(15:14):
Be like, hey, we're going to learn new Sergia Peis.
We're taking back Daniel Ricardo and the story that could
happen mid season They kicked out Nick de Reeves with
no warning whatsoever. Yes, Audios, anything can happen here. But
looking at this, the one number that's popped out to
me that I'm going to try to find here in
(15:36):
Vegas to bet lowis Amilton World Championship twenty four at
twelve to one. Now, the reason why I'm going to
go on bet this is I'm going to sprinkle a
little bit, maybe ten twenty dollars because what you can
do is throughout the season. It's going to be very
difficult to hedge in the futures market, but you could
(15:56):
hedge against your bets every race and you can still
make your money back. Right because if Lows starts performing
and Mercedes says performing really well, that number is going
to drop and drop and drop. And you're in a
great position because look at what Louis is doing now,
especially with the new floor upgrades and changes. Mercedes need
to get any upgrades to do during the winter break
(16:19):
right coming into next season. If they get this right, oh,
it's going to be a three way battle, four way
battle upon me with McLaren and then once Aston Martin
figures out their issues, who a battle of the teams.
It's going to be interesting. So I'm sprinkling a little
bit right now on Louis Hamilton at twelve to one.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
File that one away for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
By the way, rest of the constructor's sides McLaren five
to one, Mercedes six to one, Ferrari seven to ones.
You talk about optimism already as we look kind of
with one eye still on the three races this year,
one eye toward next year. Tons of optimism for McLaren
that the great second half of the season they've had
in twenty twenty three will carry over, and you think
maybe maybe we're putting the car before the horse and
(17:09):
it's a little.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
Bit Look at this, one hundred and thirty one for
Williams equaling with Alpine over Alfa, Alfa, Romeo and Hals.
That has got to show you just how far Williams
have come. I also think that number will get longer
but shorter, if that makes any sense. Like it will
(17:29):
still be a pretty long shot that in the hundreds
to they are winning. But yeah, but that number could
significantly drop down from one hundred and thirty to maybe
one hundred and ten, even ninety to one, just because
of the upbraidge of the bringing in the consistency from
Alex album just scoring up there with Hass. The drivers
(17:50):
do great on one pace during the race, it just
falls away alf for Romeo, the balance of the car
is perfect just but not up to par so you
keep seeing them fight below and just barely get into points.
Alpha Tory going to be question marks for next season.
Alpine very inconsistent. They keep trying to get points and
something keeps happening. It's either bad faith, the bat coma
(18:14):
coming through, or just the drivers being absolutely riskier than
they should be. So with those four teams back down there,
I see why Williams is up there. I can see
why it's below Aston Martin, why it's that long shot.
It makes sense.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Just don't go ahead and running to the window to
bet Williams one thirty to one. But maybe if we
get like team and I really hope that now that
Formula One it's getting popular more popular every year, we
start to get some team head to head points in
the constructors bets, we can make season long next year.
Because if that was the case, Williams and Alpine would
be a pick them based on where they have those
(18:53):
lines set. And it sounds like little lean for you,
Michaeale or the Williams with all the positivity coming out
of that team this year.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
We also, especially if Mike Elliott goes there before next season,
if they say Mike Elliots moving over as a chieftainical
officer at Williams, that could increase morale and upgrade and
just the vision of the future for the team.
Speaker 4 (19:14):
Hi on Williams, You're high on Mercedes as well, like
I am, at least in the interim here for the
final three races of the season, yep. Coming out of Mexico, Man,
there were some tough breaks for the betters out there.
One that really stung you was the Yuki Sonoda looked great,
the great position to finish in the points twelfth. I
(19:34):
did not want to wrap up this pot before we
let you air some grievances and kills. So what do
you want to say about Yuki and the Alpha.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Tari Here's what I want to say. Be patient. Oh
my god, you don't have to You had Oscar Piastre.
You were in a great position in p eight for
your points. Do you not understand how important it is
for you to score points now? But Danny Ricardo scoring
as high as he did and you bring in points.
You could have made ten points. Do you understand where
(20:02):
that would have gotten you? If you scored ten points
right there, that's twenty six that could get you closer
to Williams write one position higher from eighth. Come on, Yuki,
you cannot be doing stupid mistakes like this. You got
to be more patient. Yes, we keep saying he's working
on that, he's working. How much is he working that
(20:23):
if he can't like understand, yes, that was turn one,
you got to turn four. When that happens, be patient.
Take him on the next lap. It shows you you
have more pace. And ask a Piastree his tires were
much older than yours. Be patient in that car. I
understand that hopes are high. Your pressure is high, but
pressure from who. No one on the radio came on
(20:47):
and told you, Yuki watches what it was all you bullock.
Stop stop being in your ars like I love. I'd
love to see that he can't get this.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
I'd love to seek front you can sit on every
every time they go to.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
The they go to the radio, it's just bleep bleep.
It's like I don't even need to go to the radio.
You just know it's gonna be an f bound the nesticket,
bleep out. Anyway, you want to let.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Me down and get a little brief as Aston Martin,
I don't know what's going on with They just didn't
have a great weekend and they say Austin was not
that great as well. There's just so much going on
in that team. I don't understand what they're trying to
accomplish it and I think they're understanding that now that
they can do great things off season, but during the
(21:34):
season they don't know what progress they're looking for the car.
So this is gonna be very interesting where Aston Martin,
Fernande Alonzo, lancetro Lo and trow all sit down and
go all right, what we look to get out of
this car. So that's gonna be interesting. That was heartbreaking too,
But I'm all right on that one because I know
there's regression on Aston Martin. Again, there were a team
that just came out of nowhere at the beginning of
the season, so we expect this kind of regression from
(21:55):
someone who over corrected. It has to balance out during
the season. That's okay. Heartbreak, heartbreak, heartbreak for Sajo Paris
at his home ground Prix Tough Ye. He keeps saying
that he had to risk it all and he Sergio
Paris got off the line pretty well from p five
to fighting for the lead there against Charles and Max
(22:17):
Maxis on the inside. We had Charles in the middle.
It was three wide going to ten one. Yes, it's
a racing incident, but I also I saw a little
glimpse where if Sergio backed off Carlo Science had backed
up enough that he could have taken the corner been
P three, taken a little bit of slipstream from MAXI
(22:38):
step And yes, I understand that the slipstreen and BRS
does not have that great effect here in Mexico given
the altitude. But if you just follow that, follow that line,
he would have been outside for ten two, ten three
and been inside for ten four and overtaking Charles Leclair.
At least when I was looking at it, that's how
I was seeing the trajectory going said your prayers did
(23:01):
want Nick? When it's your own Grand Prix, emotions are high,
so the highs are really high, the lows are significantly low.
It's absolutely heartbreak and taken away. So there's a lot
that can be looked at over here, but I think
when it comes down to this, it's just heartbreak racing incidents.
(23:22):
Let go same bit. I believe part of us and
lancetroll racing incident there. Yuki Sonata absolute dismal bomb but
great great form, great pace. And you know who I'm
talking about because we've spoken about him before, We've spoken
about the steam before. McClaren and Landon Norris, Oh my god,
(23:42):
that last stint was absolutely phenomenal. I don't know where
that pace came from in that car, but Landon was
absolutely beautiful. A master class of overtaking when it's very
difficult to overtake and find the slipstream and to find
that pocket of fair to get the car working right.
Whatever McLaren and Landon Norris had in that car was
(24:06):
just beautiful. Was that a ballerina proancing around every single corner?
Masterclass of racecraft. We've seen Landon Norris bring this up
every single time and I'm very excited she had to
see what's coming up for McLaren and Aladinos.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Tala drive most overtakes in his career in a single
race for Lando Norris and has finished no worse than
eighth in every race the last eleven dating back to
the Austrian Grand Prix first weekend of July. Pretty amazing
and we didn't even mention Ferrari on the show today.
But a very good showing go one two on the grid.
(24:41):
Don't it can't turn that into a race? Women still
Charlie Clair on the podium. Carlos science Forth not a
bad weekend again.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
As I was listening to the first race, interviews. Ferrari
overall very happy with their pace individuity. They were not,
so they're going to be working on that. So we
kept saying irrelevance last this episode. I think irrelevance is
becoming a bit more relevant now and I'm happy for
var already seeing where they are at right now.
Speaker 4 (25:06):
Just a little too little too late, maybe like twenty
races almost twenty races too late. Now.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
Progress is progressive, it is, it is some progress. All right.
Speaker 4 (25:15):
We are done on our race recap episode for today,
but stay tuned. We've got a full breakdown of the
Brazilian Grand Prix coming up later on in your feed.
For Michael Miranda, I'm Ben Wilson. Please, if you haven't
done so already, give us a five star rating. If
you would, please do so little review as well of
our pod and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts here.
We'll see you next time later this week for the
full brazil breakdown here on the VC will be the
(25:36):
One Betting Podcast
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one betting podcast.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Ay Flight Down, Away we go.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
I'll check this.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Alegend absolutely animal the only F one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 3 (00:13):
Michael right, find that chicken ship can already do.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michale Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
We're back.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
Everybody vs in Formula one Betting podcast with Michale Miranda
are technical analyst. I'm Ben Wilson. Really fun race weekend.
Michale was texting me as the race was going on.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
I was not watching live because I hosted live bet
Sunday on the NFL side.
Speaker 4 (00:37):
McHale, So I was trying to watch about thirteen NFL
games in real time and was dvring the race to
watch daty, but you were fired up. One of the
plays we gave out Mercedes double top six does get there.
It's also another race win for Max for Stappit in
the Red Bull, setting these single season record sixteen wins
now and so big weekend though for Mercedes. I want
(00:59):
to start there because the chief technical officer, Mike Elliot
announces as a recording today on Halloween he is leaving
the Mercedes team. So good weekend, but also some shakeups
there in the front office so to speak.
Speaker 1 (01:11):
Yeah, Mercedes has been in this situation where they're trying
to figure out how can they keep the team motivation
and morale high because they start off twenty twenty one
on the back for twenty Sorry with that Lewis Samilton
not winning that championship in twenty one, that was a
big let out for them. Come into twenty two, Ferrari
and redbel were fighting for everything in the Constructors and
(01:33):
Drivers cover. Twenty three it has been completely red Bull right.
Mercedes has been out of the conversation. All we get
to see are glimpses every now and then that Lewis
is in this, George's in this, We're looking at this right.
They have not been in the conversation as holy have
they have been in the past couple of seasons. So
(01:57):
with this, with the chief technical officer Michaeliot leaving after
eleven years, he's the one I believe who bought in
Louis Ampton. He was getting started from McLaren into Mercedes.
This is going to be an interesting move. Here's why
we are having a lot of Mercedes personnel depart from
(02:18):
the team and go into teams that are up and coming. Right,
So we've seen James Vows move into their team principal
role at Williams. We're seeing a lot of BMW drivers
and old BMW analysts come in such as Mike crack
At Asthmas and everything, and we're seeing Mercedes depart. So
(02:43):
could we see Mike Elliott take his experiences knowledge and
assist James Vows in bringing back what Williams used to be? Maybe?
Or is he's just looking for a break. There's a
lot of things here that is still up in the
air that we need to see. But if I see
Mike Eli go down to Williams I think we can
(03:09):
keep betting Williams next year. I think they're going to
be a big powerhouse to come into next season, especially
for the midfield. I think they can taking the fight
a bit closer now.
Speaker 4 (03:19):
As far as actual Mercedes, though for the rule out
of the final three races this season, you're not really
believing though this will have any negative impact?
Speaker 1 (03:27):
Is that fair to say not too much of a
negative impact. I got to say Mercedes is a well
oiled machine. They know who they are, They've had their
brand arm for years. Yes, it sucks to lose many
many key players, but as you move forward, like sometimes
(03:47):
you have to cut off a limb to save the body.
And I think Mercedes are interesting where maybe they need
to upgrade something a part of them in order to
move forward. And I think Mike is like, I don't
think this for me because he just got Puns his
role after James Allison. They had a big swap over
in leadership at Mercedes, So looking at this, I think
(04:11):
he's looking for a bit of a change here moving forward.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
A big reason why we bring this up now coming
out of the race from Mexico and we now.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Go to Salpolo this week. We'll have the full.
Speaker 4 (04:22):
Breakdown pod here later in the week in your podcast feed.
But there's some interesting futures opportunities out there, even though
the season has already been decided with Thread Bull and
Max verstapp and winning the Drivers' championship, Red Bull racing
through and taking the Constructor's title going away.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
Interesting prop out there right now. I've seen a couple
of sportsbook offer this.
Speaker 4 (04:40):
Mikhale I looked at this at Caesar's where I found
the best line here it is winner of the Drivers'
Championship without Max for stap and the rest of the season.
Sergio Perez your favorite minus one seventy five. He has
a twenty point lead over Lewis Hamilton. That gap was
just cutting half by Perez's DNF and last place finish
after the first lap and Lewis Hamilton getting second to
(05:02):
cut in with his twenty points. Hamilton is plus one
thirty five. That's a really intriguing bet. You now go
to a track in sal Paulo where Mercedes had a
lot of success last season. It was George Russell's first
ever career win. Down to the final three races. What
would you give a fair price on on Hamilton actually
catching Perez for second in the Driver's Championship And is
(05:24):
that worth a bet in your mind?
Speaker 1 (05:26):
So we spoke about those on beforegoings and I told
you jump on that right now because that's a good
bet right there. The books are not evaluating Perez effectively
and they are doing a right so we are in
this little limbo where they probably might get this correct
after Brazil. So for those if you listen to the
podcast on Tuesday, October thirty first or happy, how to
(05:49):
wain to everyone or tomorrow November first, right, be weary.
The books will start to overcorrect numbers, but they're always
going to be looking after futures markets for next season.
Right to pay attention to this. So when I hear
say your Paris is your favorite, Yes, he is leading
the championship above Hamilton, but you have got to look
(06:16):
at Paris where he's qualifying, where he's converting that qualifying
pace two Right. I spoke about this in the preview
episode for Mexico that his qualifying pace is at ten
point seventy one, which means on average he is qualifying
anywhere but between p. Twelve to P eight that's not great,
(06:39):
especially if you're in a rebel where maxistappened is qualifying
much higher that at one point seven Right, So anywhere
P three jipole position, that's where Max is qualifying in
recent TERMOI, especially after the Ferraris have got better qualifying
pace over one lap.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Right.
Speaker 1 (06:56):
If that's where Peris is now moving from qualifying to race,
his average raised finishing position is five point seventy one,
which means Paris is only making up five places, which
means the cars have veead of him. Even though they
are much slower technically on paper, the drivers are much
more consistent in keeping anything behind them right. Sergio banks
(07:22):
on a lot of things, and he's been making a
little bit more riskier moves, and I think this is
going to catch up to him, especially next year when
he's contracted up. Sergio Perez needs to be a little
bit more vigilant now as we move in and towards
the end of the season, going to next season, kids,
trust me, there's rumors around the paddock and everything. Look
(07:43):
at Daniel Riccardo. Not yet for me, not yet, but
again Sergio Perez is in the hot seat. After Yuki's
great performance. We see that consistently. Daniel Riccardo coming back
from his little early retirement that he had off on
the sidelines. Liam Lawson come and who did great. There
are many people in the driver can and driver pool
(08:05):
in f Formula TU and on the reserves where Sergia
Peers might lose. See we saw McClaren do this to
Daniel Ricardo. Do you get Oscar Pias Street. You can
cut someone's contract extremely short, buy them out of the
contract and focus on building your season.
Speaker 4 (08:21):
No seed hotter, certainly than Sergio pears right now, even
with the team principal Christian Horner coming out and saying
it wasn't his faults. That was the quote coming out
after the race for the first lap crash. But you're
you're totally right, and that it is a position where
this bet you're sort of fading pair as the horrible
run of form he's in for the final few races
and you can turn around and then also its front
(08:42):
of you and it's I know, I'm saying.
Speaker 1 (08:45):
Since Azerbaijan, that's what since like April April May of
this year, we're right now in November, right, We've got
to look at that this is not just a slip
in performance. This is an absolute just may of anything
that there is right. Either Sergia Paris needs to refamiliarize
(09:05):
himself with the car, or he needs to go and
tell Christian, hey, I don't know what you guys are
doing to the upgrades. It's either seeing Max more and
taking away my thing, or like I just don't understand
the car. But we need to sort this out right
now before we go into into winter testing, before we
get back next season, because if this is this does
all get sorted out rebel is more than happy to
(09:29):
take back Daniel Ricardo. Remember he has won multiple races,
he's been very consistent as the second driver when they
promoted max Is Stapping back in twenty eighteen. So we
got to look at this whole picture, and I don't
think the bugs are actually taking this into consideration. So
minus one thirty five I think we saw on minus
one twenty five somewhere as well.
Speaker 4 (09:50):
Plus that number, plus one thirty five way better than
minus plus one thirty five on Lewis Hamilton.
Speaker 1 (09:56):
No, so I'm talking about Sergia Paris.
Speaker 3 (09:57):
He's like minus one seventy five.
Speaker 4 (09:59):
Yeah, very expensive price for a guy who was not
finished on the podium since Minza, which was.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
For a second driver who's not being a good second driver.
Color signs. George Russell asked a Pias through Landinoris that
one keep slipping back and forth. They are better second
drivers than Sergio Paris. This is very important because the
McLarens are showing great pace and if Fernando Alonso gets
that new upgrades working, he could keep say your prayers
even further back right. The only reason why Sergia Praiers
(10:29):
is stead of getting more and more positions in the race.
Is because as Martin is ffording further and further away,
McLaren seemed to throw away some of their strategies when
it comes to qualifying, as we said for Landonorris, so
it says being lucky for Sergio Paris. But if these
teams get everything situated right, that's going to be a
big difference moving forward, and lou Sampton is going to
(10:51):
take full advantage of this, and Mercedes is gonna take
for advanced because again all the teams are now scrapping
for positions in the Constructors. Yes, the title might be
wrapped up, but where you finished is important because you're
talking about tens of millions between PT and P two,
P three, P four. Where you finished in the Constructors
(11:11):
that could be life changing money for a lot and
we got when we come back from the break here,
we're going to talk about a team who sort of
is squandering this opportunity and we need to talk about
him really, really extensively. But the bucks right now for
Sergio Prayers are not looking at this with an objective eye.
They're just seeing red bull overpower of a Mercedes. But
(11:32):
they're not taking the consideration the driver, Sergio Perez, what
he's doing in the races, in qualifying, and.
Speaker 3 (11:39):
Your bet on that.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
Again, it's Lewis Hamilton plus one thirty five the best
you can find to finish higher than Sergio Perez winner
without max for stapping in the Driver's Championship. It's just
that there will be consistency in that high level of
pace we've seen out of the Mercedes continues over the
last three races of the season. You mentioned the constructors
right now too, Mercedes trying to protect a twenty two
point lead over Ferrari with three races to go for
(12:03):
that P. Two position, red Bull only about three hundred
and sixty points up. Yeah, it's you know, just been
slightly lopsided this year. Anyway, I really like that bet though,
I'm glad we were able to look at that. I'll
bring up what the early future odds are for next
year because Draftkins is released it future odds for twenty
twenty four before the twenty.
Speaker 3 (12:22):
Three season is even wrapped up.
Speaker 4 (12:23):
We'll see if there's anything worth getting a bet in
at this point, if you really are interested in having
your money.
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Help for basically a year plus.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
We'll talk about that next get some other thoughts from Michale.
We have our second segment of the VC Formula one
Racing Podcast. It's coming up right after this.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst Michael Mourray and hand betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
All right, Michael, hard to believe, but futures for twenty
twenty four already out. We haven't even finished this season,
even though, as we just mentioned, the title is Red
Bulls and Max for Stappins, but DraftKings odds are out
Max for Stappin minus three sixty favorite. No discount here
if you are looking to bet Max or Stappin, at
least the DraftKings. First book I've seen to post twenty
twenty four World Championship ods Rebel to win the Constructors
(13:25):
minus two fifty.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Now, what were your first thoughts?
Speaker 4 (13:28):
You're Makae looking at the rest of the odds boards,
with the two McLaren's tied for seconds on your Driver's
Championship odds board Piastrian Norris each nine to one.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
I think we are betting a little bit more optimistic there,
especially that we have Lewis Hamilton at twelve to one.
The one that does surprise me that they have Daniel
Riccardo higher at twenty to one over George Russell twenty two.
I'm sorry to say, but Daniel Ricardo has been absent
for most of the season, given that he came in late,
(14:00):
broke his hand during a quote fine crash and then
has just come back. We've only seen gannet ricarded for
three races, and the books are really hard on them.
I don't think that's the right price. So if you
believe in George Russell, twenty two to one looks interesting,
and then they have Charles the twenty two, Carlos to
twenty two, Sergio A twenty eight.
Speaker 4 (14:20):
Isn't so Michail isn't. On the the Ricardo v. Paris
side of it. Isn't that basically with the rumblings of
maybe Perez gets replaced, you mentioned he's still under contract
for next year, so isn't. Essentially the bet on either
Ricardo or Perez is that they are going to be
the number two Red Bull driver, and basically just by
how great that car is, automatically, whichever one ends up
(14:42):
being that guy is automatically going to have their price
cut well short, to the point they'll likely be the
second favorite. Am I overlooking something here? Isn't that basically
what we're breaking down on that front.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
That's basically war breaking down. And again we keep saying
that Rappo have a contract with Sergio Paris, right, but
you forget if Tory don't have a contract with Daniel Riccardo.
Daniel Ricardo has a contract with Red Bull, who was
on loan South for Tori. Remember that, so Redbook will
still have the contract for Sergia Parros and swap them around.
(15:14):
Be like, hey, we're going to learn new Sergia Peis.
We're taking back Daniel Ricardo and the story that could
happen mid season They kicked out Nick de Reeves with
no warning whatsoever. Yes, Audios, anything can happen here. But
looking at this, the one number that's popped out to
me that I'm going to try to find here in
(15:36):
Vegas to bet lowis Amilton World Championship twenty four at
twelve to one. Now, the reason why I'm going to
go on bet this is I'm going to sprinkle a
little bit, maybe ten twenty dollars because what you can
do is throughout the season. It's going to be very
difficult to hedge in the futures market, but you could
(15:56):
hedge against your bets every race and you can still
make your money back. Right because if Lows starts performing
and Mercedes says performing really well, that number is going
to drop and drop and drop. And you're in a
great position because look at what Louis is doing now,
especially with the new floor upgrades and changes. Mercedes need
to get any upgrades to do during the winter break
(16:19):
right coming into next season. If they get this right, oh,
it's going to be a three way battle, four way
battle upon me with McLaren and then once Aston Martin
figures out their issues, who a battle of the teams.
It's going to be interesting. So I'm sprinkling a little
bit right now on Louis Hamilton at twelve to one.
Speaker 3 (16:43):
File that one away for twenty twenty four.
Speaker 4 (16:46):
By the way, rest of the constructor's sides McLaren five
to one, Mercedes six to one, Ferrari seven to ones.
You talk about optimism already as we look kind of
with one eye still on the three races this year,
one eye toward next year. Tons of optimism for McLaren
that the great second half of the season they've had
in twenty twenty three will carry over, and you think
maybe maybe we're putting the car before the horse and
(17:09):
it's a little.
Speaker 1 (17:09):
Bit Look at this, one hundred and thirty one for
Williams equaling with Alpine over Alfa, Alfa, Romeo and Hals.
That has got to show you just how far Williams
have come. I also think that number will get longer
but shorter, if that makes any sense. Like it will
(17:29):
still be a pretty long shot that in the hundreds
to they are winning. But yeah, but that number could
significantly drop down from one hundred and thirty to maybe
one hundred and ten, even ninety to one, just because
of the upbraidge of the bringing in the consistency from
Alex album just scoring up there with Hass. The drivers
(17:50):
do great on one pace during the race, it just
falls away alf for Romeo, the balance of the car
is perfect just but not up to par so you
keep seeing them fight below and just barely get into points.
Alpha Tory going to be question marks for next season.
Alpine very inconsistent. They keep trying to get points and
something keeps happening. It's either bad faith, the bat coma
(18:14):
coming through, or just the drivers being absolutely riskier than
they should be. So with those four teams back down there,
I see why Williams is up there. I can see
why it's below Aston Martin, why it's that long shot.
It makes sense.
Speaker 4 (18:31):
Just don't go ahead and running to the window to
bet Williams one thirty to one. But maybe if we
get like team and I really hope that now that
Formula One it's getting popular more popular every year, we
start to get some team head to head points in
the constructors bets, we can make season long next year.
Because if that was the case, Williams and Alpine would
be a pick them based on where they have those
(18:53):
lines set. And it sounds like little lean for you,
Michaeale or the Williams with all the positivity coming out
of that team this year.
Speaker 1 (18:59):
We also, especially if Mike Elliott goes there before next season,
if they say Mike Elliots moving over as a chieftainical
officer at Williams, that could increase morale and upgrade and
just the vision of the future for the team.
Speaker 4 (19:14):
Hi on Williams, You're high on Mercedes as well, like
I am, at least in the interim here for the
final three races of the season, yep. Coming out of Mexico, Man,
there were some tough breaks for the betters out there.
One that really stung you was the Yuki Sonoda looked great,
the great position to finish in the points twelfth. I
(19:34):
did not want to wrap up this pot before we
let you air some grievances and kills. So what do
you want to say about Yuki and the Alpha.
Speaker 1 (19:40):
Tari Here's what I want to say. Be patient. Oh
my god, you don't have to You had Oscar Piastre.
You were in a great position in p eight for
your points. Do you not understand how important it is
for you to score points now? But Danny Ricardo scoring
as high as he did and you bring in points.
You could have made ten points. Do you understand where
(20:02):
that would have gotten you? If you scored ten points
right there, that's twenty six that could get you closer
to Williams write one position higher from eighth. Come on, Yuki,
you cannot be doing stupid mistakes like this. You got
to be more patient. Yes, we keep saying he's working
on that, he's working. How much is he working that
(20:23):
if he can't like understand, yes, that was turn one,
you got to turn four. When that happens, be patient.
Take him on the next lap. It shows you you
have more pace. And ask a Piastree his tires were
much older than yours. Be patient in that car. I
understand that hopes are high. Your pressure is high, but
pressure from who. No one on the radio came on
(20:47):
and told you, Yuki watches what it was all you bullock.
Stop stop being in your ars like I love. I'd
love to see that he can't get this.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
I'd love to seek front you can sit on every
every time they go to.
Speaker 4 (21:03):
The they go to the radio, it's just bleep bleep.
It's like I don't even need to go to the radio.
You just know it's gonna be an f bound the nesticket,
bleep out. Anyway, you want to let.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
Me down and get a little brief as Aston Martin,
I don't know what's going on with They just didn't
have a great weekend and they say Austin was not
that great as well. There's just so much going on
in that team. I don't understand what they're trying to
accomplish it and I think they're understanding that now that
they can do great things off season, but during the
(21:34):
season they don't know what progress they're looking for the car.
So this is gonna be very interesting where Aston Martin,
Fernande Alonzo, lancetro Lo and trow all sit down and
go all right, what we look to get out of
this car. So that's gonna be interesting. That was heartbreaking too,
But I'm all right on that one because I know
there's regression on Aston Martin. Again, there were a team
that just came out of nowhere at the beginning of
the season, so we expect this kind of regression from
(21:55):
someone who over corrected. It has to balance out during
the season. That's okay. Heartbreak, heartbreak, heartbreak for Sajo Paris
at his home ground Prix Tough Ye. He keeps saying
that he had to risk it all and he Sergio
Paris got off the line pretty well from p five
to fighting for the lead there against Charles and Max
(22:17):
Maxis on the inside. We had Charles in the middle.
It was three wide going to ten one. Yes, it's
a racing incident, but I also I saw a little
glimpse where if Sergio backed off Carlo Science had backed
up enough that he could have taken the corner been
P three, taken a little bit of slipstream from MAXI
(22:38):
step And yes, I understand that the slipstreen and BRS
does not have that great effect here in Mexico given
the altitude. But if you just follow that, follow that line,
he would have been outside for ten two, ten three
and been inside for ten four and overtaking Charles Leclair.
At least when I was looking at it, that's how
I was seeing the trajectory going said your prayers did
(23:01):
want Nick? When it's your own Grand Prix, emotions are high,
so the highs are really high, the lows are significantly low.
It's absolutely heartbreak and taken away. So there's a lot
that can be looked at over here, but I think
when it comes down to this, it's just heartbreak racing incidents.
(23:22):
Let go same bit. I believe part of us and
lancetroll racing incident there. Yuki Sonata absolute dismal bomb but
great great form, great pace. And you know who I'm
talking about because we've spoken about him before, We've spoken
about the steam before. McClaren and Landon Norris, Oh my god,
(23:42):
that last stint was absolutely phenomenal. I don't know where
that pace came from in that car, but Landon was
absolutely beautiful. A master class of overtaking when it's very
difficult to overtake and find the slipstream and to find
that pocket of fair to get the car working right.
Whatever McLaren and Landon Norris had in that car was
(24:06):
just beautiful. Was that a ballerina proancing around every single corner?
Masterclass of racecraft. We've seen Landon Norris bring this up
every single time and I'm very excited she had to
see what's coming up for McLaren and Aladinos.
Speaker 4 (24:20):
Tala drive most overtakes in his career in a single
race for Lando Norris and has finished no worse than
eighth in every race the last eleven dating back to
the Austrian Grand Prix first weekend of July. Pretty amazing
and we didn't even mention Ferrari on the show today.
But a very good showing go one two on the grid.
(24:41):
Don't it can't turn that into a race? Women still
Charlie Clair on the podium. Carlos science Forth not a
bad weekend again.
Speaker 1 (24:48):
As I was listening to the first race, interviews. Ferrari
overall very happy with their pace individuity. They were not,
so they're going to be working on that. So we
kept saying irrelevance last this episode. I think irrelevance is
becoming a bit more relevant now and I'm happy for
var already seeing where they are at right now.
Speaker 4 (25:06):
Just a little too little too late, maybe like twenty
races almost twenty races too late. Now.
Speaker 3 (25:11):
Progress is progressive, it is, it is some progress. All right.
Speaker 4 (25:15):
We are done on our race recap episode for today,
but stay tuned. We've got a full breakdown of the
Brazilian Grand Prix coming up later on in your feed.
For Michael Miranda, I'm Ben Wilson. Please, if you haven't
done so already, give us a five star rating. If
you would, please do so little review as well of
our pod and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts here.
We'll see you next time later this week for the
full brazil breakdown here on the VC will be the
(25:36):
One Betting Podcast
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.