November 3, 2023 • 25 mins
In this exciting episode of our F1 betting podcast, we're gearing up for the Brazilian Grand Prix and the high-octane Grand Prix and Sprint Race weekend! Join us as we unravel the strategies behind Mercedes' quest for victory with Lewis Hamilton at the helm, and explore Ferrari's impressive pace in recent races, raising the possibility of a qualifying pole position. It's a thrilling preview of what promises to be an action-packed weekend in São Paulo. Tune in for insights, predictions, and all the buzz around this Formula 1 spectacle! 🏁🏎️💨 #BrazilGP #F1Sprint #Hamilton #Ferrari #BettingPreview
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:05):
A flight down Away we go check this alegend absolutely animal,
the only F one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 4 (00:13):
Michael is right, check and ship get alady do.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michail Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
We are back.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
It is the third straight week of racing in Formula
one here on the F one Betting Podcast. Michail Miranda
is here. Some of the drivers you know might be tired, McHale,
but you're not third leg at the triple header of
the Greats October and November race stretch. I'm Ben Wilson
and already you have some grievances. Michel, you're not happy
about the sprint race this late in the year.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Is that?
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Do I have that correct? You're not a fan of
more racing? Uh?
Speaker 1 (00:48):
I love more racing? Is just that? Wait? Now, at
the end, the hope we're spent was to allow drivers
and teams to catch up to each other, and now
we're just asking too much off team to just get
their cars going. Like I'm pretty sure there are a
lot especially if you're on a absolute loss of engines
(01:10):
and power units into the weekend, you probably are looking
at a lot of grid penalties. And as we have
said countlessly and I have reiterated this point multiple times,
is the fact that teams are still fighting for positions
in the Constructors Championship. It means a lot. It's the
difference between tens of millions of pounds coming to the
(01:33):
team to use for next year on developing the twenty
twenty four car. So, given the fact that we are
asking teams to risk their power units, take a lot
of grid penalties, even in controller electronics, like, yes, a
lot of teams aren't dealing with heavy reliability issues, but
teams that are are fighting for every single scrap of
(01:57):
position they can get. It is vital that they finish
where they want to. So having the sprint race is
more for a grievance than it is for a fan
to be like, yes, let's go racing. We just want
to be able to let them practice, use oldpower units,
see where they are going to qualifying, going to race.
Let's enjoy the last three races of the season.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
And it starts we're recording Thursday night here in Las Vegas.
But starts with the action packed weekend. We'll get the
qualifying Friday, sprint shootout, sprint race Saturday, the sal Polo
Grand Prix. We go to Brazil for Sunday, and this
was a race that had all sorts of chaos in
twenty twenty two. A lot of that was weather related.
In the latest forecast I'm seeing, we'll start with that Mchael.
(02:43):
Since any race it has a history there, we need
to do our due diligence first off and check that
there is rain in the forecast for the Friday qualifying session,
but should be pretty good to go for both Saturday
and Sunday. If you remember, this was the infamous Hostpol
last year, which was the same eventually, just the downpour
that was the pole in the sprint race. Kevin Magduson
(03:04):
in the haz ends up getting on poll for the
sprint race with a red flag coming out in all
sorts of chaos there, But honestly, Il McHale, this should
be outside of maybe some showers during qualifying Friday, should
be a pretty clean race weekend. The biggest thing I
look at is a race that is the third shortest
as far as total lap distance. You have to cover
(03:25):
behind only Monaco infamous short race that will have coming
up this weekend, as well as a couple of you know,
there's really only one of the track that's been shorter
as well, so it is interesting to think about it
from that perspective. You've got kind of a weird general
setup where you're kind of going in a reverse direction
than most tracks.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
You're kind of on a side hill.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
So when you've looked at this and taking the data
over the years, short track kind of a very unique
setup relative to a lot of the other Formula One
grids we watch. What is the main takeaway you have
as far as just witch drivers, which teams are set
up here to have some success down in Brazil.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
So we've gotta look at two things. We've gotta look
at qualifying trimp. We've gotta look at racetrip. These two
points are vital when it comes to looking at this track.
Now with the sprint race, it puts more of a
sprint race trim into question. Now, so let's talk about
qualifying trim. Because this is a short lap, it's a
(04:24):
little bit higher altitude but much lower than Mexico last week.
We're gonna see teams sort of be a little bit
more on the rocket ship end over here. It seems
are gonna be blistering fast, especially since its medium and
high paced corners. You're not gonna see to struggle around
this track too much, which means there's one team that
(04:47):
you and I were disappointed in the beginning of season
that we are now pretty okay with Ferrari. They are
good on one lap pace. So as we're going to
qualifying on Friday, our afternoon, right for into Largus's time,
it's going to be very very important towards the Ferraris
(05:08):
as they will be blistering quick. They're one on that pace.
It's just absolutely astonishing. I don't think Maxi, the stap
and redbul have been able to match it. Now we
are also high in Maxi Stapping because his race droom
and race conversion is much better than the Ferraris. In fact,
the Ferraris seem to drop down and on average two
(05:29):
three positions straight off the line. So you want to
look at Ferrari engine chair to do pretty good. So
you're gonna look at the house of Nika Harkinbak, Kevin
Maxim as Dick Pole last year, especially since the rain
is falling, you might be able to look at some
other teams come in, So you're gonna look at McLaren
and Mercedes. Now, these guys have been absolutely tremendous in
(05:51):
resolving issues with their cars and building up. Now we
do know that the Mercedes is a little bit more temperamental,
so you don't expect too much of the car. But
again this is a track that Louis Hamilton and George
Russell do absolutely love. Mercedes do love this track especially
it's a second home Grand Broot for Loui Sumpson as
he has been a citizen. Now he's been made so
(06:13):
this is going to be very very interesting track to
see for Louis Hamilton. In terms of McLaren, their pace
advantage has been absolutely amazing. We saw Landon Norris just
dominate the track and the last in Mexico. I expect
the same thing from the get go here McLaren. One
piece of advice watch out for your strategy. Please do
(06:35):
not try to build your car for Saturday's sprint shootout.
The maximum amount of points you can get there is
eight to ten. Do not worry about that you're fighting
for twenty five points. This will be an important race
for Louis Hamilton, however, because as you and I both know,
we took a ticket on him to finish second in
the champions for the drivers. So if Louis Hamilton does
(06:58):
really well here has said you does not, we are
looking at a change in positions throughout the weekend. This
is going to be vital as we move forward. You
and I will be sweating our tickets because it's the
future ticket. So this is going to be important as
well as for Surgio Parish going back to Red Bull,
it is important to see how he fairs going because
(07:20):
he did not finish his home Grand Prix taking out
on lap one. He's gonna look to want to fight.
And we have been talking about Daniel Ricardo proving his
worth a little bit. We want to be able to
see is he able to carry that pace going into
INTI Lagos here because if he does, then next season
it might be a big question mark for the second
seat at Red Bull. And That's where I'm looking at
(07:43):
right now. I do have a little sprinkle on Williams
that I'm looking at Alex album again. Great drive in Mexico,
great drive out, So looking at that, I think the
Williams seem that are going to do something similarly here. Again,
I don't expect Alex album the points, even though I
am looking at a ticket for him. I believe at
(08:04):
plus one point fifty on drafting, so I do believe
that he'll finish around the points if he is lucky
enough to get their car in the right window and
the track is cool enough, because that's where william to
sort of add a downfall. When the track was cool
at the tires just work for them. In the car
was just absolutely quick, just rocket ship taking off. When
(08:28):
the tractors get a little bit warmer, it's a little
bit questionable for the Williams driver. But given that there's
going to be rain on qualifying, it's going to bring
a lot of things into question. Which teams will be
able to take full advantage of the wet or the
intermediate skills. Again, some drivers are just really good in
(08:49):
the rain. Let's talk about a driver that is, you
have Landon Norris pretty good, the Aston Martin Lance stroll
really good in the rain, So you might be able
to see Lancerow will do some great things in qualifying.
Hopefully they can convert that good qualifying pace into race space.
(09:09):
But again this is where I would see Lanceroll do
pretty get at So I hope that Lancero can qualify
pretty high and fight off anyone on the back end here.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Hey, I would love to see Scroll do unqualifying simply
so I could fade him on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
Mikhail, absolutely, and you've got to be able to watch
the boks is you might be able to take advantage
of the number that does pop up. You might see
drivers that you don't expect to be up there and
find some plus money value drivers like maybe ask a
pr Street. He might be unfortunate coming in here, because again,
anything can happen. We saw Landon Norris do absolutely phenomenal,
(09:46):
but he got his qualifying messed up in Mexico and
started seventeenth, went on to finish a tremendous fifth on
the grid. So I do see a podium here for
Landon Norris.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
In Intilago's You Do, I wanted to bring up McLaren
because some of the talk with in the paddock this
week with suggesting McClaren maybe playing down their chances a
little bit, just because the specific track. We go to
salth Paolo and there's a lot of medium, low speed corners.
We've seen that be somewhat of a bugaboo for McLaren,
even post upgrades where their pace has just been tremendous.
(10:17):
So what do you make of the comments from inside
the team room saying, yeah, this might not be our
race when you also look at the numbers and see
how great McLaren have been the past few months.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
That's a nice point that you bring up, and I
think that's it's not just them. I think it's everyone
who's running a Miss Cities engine is looking at that way.
I think to the fact that it's a very short track. Right,
Given it's a very short track, sometimes the Miss Cities
engine seems to not like short tracks, especially at this
sort of pace. I don't think it can keep up.
(10:46):
So you're trying to lift and coast as much to
cool the engine and the brakes a little bit more
so as you see the cause, I'm going to be
looking more on the latter movement because I believe it's
got some heavy level movements here. For yeah, it's it's
on a three for later, on three on breaking and
three on tires stress. So this is it's showing that
(11:08):
it's pretty even. But when you add all this up
on a little bit high altitude, it can seem to
take a little bit more from the ties and the
abrasion on the tires. They're looking at more stops, so
the draws will be looking at a get pit stop
strudgie here as well.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Yeah, it's just it's interesting when you think about the
Mercedes engine and then you also look at the Mercedes
team and how how great they have been even in
years where Mercedes have not been the top dog. Look
at last year George Russell, not only when's the sprint race,
but when's the entire Grand Prix, so he'll be looking
to defend. We'll get into the odds here in a
second and get through McHale's full card. But really fascinating
(11:46):
difference compared to a lot of weeks where you know,
where a lot of weeks we see we see things
pretty much evenly leveled out from you know, winner to
podium to top six to top ten. There's a little
bit more variance this week where you have some maybe
boom or bust type of guys. Charlo Leclair is a
great example. Leclaire is twenty five to one sixth on
the odds board. Yet he is second now in the
(12:07):
odds board to get on pole plus seven to fifty
Maxi stapp and obviously favored in every single market. The
top red bull has already won the world Championship, but
we'll get into that after a break, because I find
that interesting too. Leclair and that one lap pace, like
you mentioned, McHale and the Ferrari have been tremendous.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
We'll see. I'm curious what you think.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
About that plus seven to fifty to get a third
consecutive poll for one Charyl Leclaire.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
We'll get to McHale's full card.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
Let's hit a quick break, come back more breaking down
the Salpollo Grand Prix right here on the vs F
one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst McHale, Mourray and hand betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
As we get ready to roll into Michale's card.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
And if you missed it, we did a recap of
the last race from Mexico City. Michale, you and I
both made a little future sprinkle. We are in on
Lewis Hamilton to finish seconds in the Drivers' Championship. It's
basically winner without Max Restaff and that's the market we're
betting into.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
So we took a little plus one thirty five on
Lewis Hamilton.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Essentially it's Lewis versus Sergio Perez right now, and we've.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
Gotten a little line.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Move in our favor here, Michale, I don't know were
you you moving that line ten cents? It's down to
plus one twenty five now on Hamilton, twenty points down
with three races to go, but he's made up thirty
five points over the last five races.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Yes, well, I'm looking at this right as logos is
Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton's second. The mass of what we
try to do, it is their circuit. For some reason,
they seem to do well, even though in the car
it does not look like it's ready to perform. Lewis
Hamilton does put in hammettim here, so he's great this track.
The next rack Vegas, no one knows what's gonna happen.
But again, if it's gonna be in the Monico trim,
(14:04):
you're gonna look at Louis something to do pretty well. Here,
especially with the low down fast configuration, the car is
just gonna be absolutely speeding through every single corner of
the track, and last are gonna get to ABUW where
Louis Somemton has won multiple championships and we saw the
fight between him and Max this happened right. So seeing
(14:25):
that these are the next couple of tracks coming up,
and Sergio Preis's dismal run at finishing and the parting position,
so even the top six at times, it's gonna be
very hard for Sergia Barris to hold that second position.
And I think bookmakers are starting to finally catch on
that plus money evaluation on lou something still at a
(14:45):
good value. For me, I will still jump on the
plus one twenty five. That number should be even money
or minus one to five minus one of ten if
I was making that number, because I can see Louis
Hamilton catching up, especially if you have George Russell, I'll
say in fourth, a fifth, holding Sergio Paris outside the
top six with the sprint race. With the race, this
(15:10):
could be a change of fortune moving forward for Lewis
Hamilton anchored work in our favor at least that's the
way that I'm seeing it moving forward in the next
couple of races.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Yeah, well even just extrapolate this based on the odds, right,
Hamilton is second on the odds board, coming in Maxi
stap in your favorite minus four hundred to win this
week at the Soupollo Grand Prix Sergio Paris, dropping all
the way down to twenty to one the second Red Bull.
And so let's just say in the last three races
of the season, you know, McHale completely reflect the odds
as they as they stand now that hardly ever happens,
(15:42):
but let's just say it does. And you know, and
you look at where these drivers are at and you go,
you know, second, fifth, second fifth, second fifth. I mean
you just look at it from a pure odds relative
to point standpoint, how that all you know, how that
all is is correlated here? And you know, let's if
you just blindly do it that way, you're looking at
a position where and you know, and if you look
(16:03):
at the you know, the points in general here, you'd
be looking at making up eight points basically per race,
which is all you need on average. So the odds
are telling you as much as they are wont to
change week in week out odds are telling you that
this is about based on extrapolating that out, Michale, just
on a pure numbers perspective, It's about a coin flip, right,
And as you mentioned, we're getting plus one thirty five
(16:24):
and even betters now get plus one twenty five. So
I do like where. I like that you got me there.
I'm totally with you on that bet though. But to
start your card, where was the first place.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
You wanted to go? Here?
Speaker 3 (16:35):
Looking at the Grand Prix this weekend with we've got
qualifying Friday, sprint shootout, sprint race Saturday, then the big
old race coming up on Sunday, so.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Important thing here is I've got too faster qualifier bets
from DK. The reason why I got to is because
I do believe that the Ferrari will put in a nice, good,
tirely lap around the Insulago circuit. So first Charles Leclaire
a plus seven fifty and then Carlo Science at eleven
(17:07):
to one. Now I know betters out there asking this
is not a good strategy. I tried to find Ferrari
as fast as qualifier and I could not find that
number or that menu anywhere. So in order to match
the number I've just taken the plus seven fifty and
(17:28):
eleven to one. I don't mind losing either one of
both these bets because I know it's a little bit
of a long shot. But given the run that Ferrari
has been on, especially in Austin, Mexico, where they do
not expect to do well, and they've done really well
in qualifying, this is going to be a bet that
I'm going to be high on. The Next thing I'm
going to be looking at is a podium position for
(17:51):
Charles Leclair at plus two seventy five, again quick laps
around Racestrim. Ferrari does seem to pull back a little bit,
but I'm going to look at Charles Leclair here, and
then Lewis Hamilton and minus one seventy five. As I
have mentioned before, this is Lewis's track for some reason.
(18:12):
He can just flip on a switch and go, and
I love that about Louis, especially here in his lagos.
Last that I have is Alex Albin top ten and
plus one fifty. These are my single bets that I'm
looking at. I do have some parlays here that I
do love, so the first one is a three pick parlay.
(18:37):
So I'm going to take the Alex album top ten,
Charles Leclair podium position and this will be a Lewis
Hamilton winner for the race plus a fifty. I know
this is a long shot. The odds that's showing me
here in DK is plus eighty eighth six. Right this
(19:00):
is it's showing you it's a long shot right here.
And I do believe this is a long shot. But
here's the reason I do. Louis Hamilton finished second last
year behind George Russell, and that was the car that
did not look that good compared to the Red Bull.
So if Rebel don't seem to carry for anything over here,
(19:20):
this will work out in my favor. The next is
a two pick parlay Oscar Piastre top six at minus
one and five and Charles Leclara Perdium finished. This is
at a plus six thirty two, so a little bit
longer shot, but again still normal out there. And that's
all that I have for my bets for this weekend
(19:43):
here at the Insula August circuit for the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Well, I'm glad I set you up before the break
on thoughts on qualifying, I had no idea you were
betting Leclaiir. I you know one book I'm looking at
here in Las Vegas, I see Leclair nine to one
to finish as the fastest qualifier. So it's only natural,
right when you look at the one lap pace of
the Ferrari. How the as you mentioned how the Ferrari
engine tends to perform very well on these tighter circuits
(20:09):
where you have the you look at it in general,
and you're you're at are you're at a track that
has some more of the medium low speed corners. It
would make a lot of sense, right for Leclair to
keep this dynamite one lap pace going as much as
as much as that takes away the handicap of hal
Frederick Vassar, the team principal elects to handle the actual
race strategy. You're kind of throwing that out the window.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
Right, Yeah, absolutely, And it's I don't know if it's
interesting concerning to me that the books have Ferrari a
long shot on fastest qualifier. I'm trying to figure out why. Yes,
we get that Louis Hamilton and Maxi stapp And can
(20:51):
absolutely be dominant at this track, but odds off nine
to one eight to one seems too much. So either
the books know something that we don't, or the books
have not accounts it for Ferrari's one lap pace. So
this is a shot in the dark here. Again, anything
(21:12):
to do with betting is a shot in the dark.
We adjust, look at the nice evaluate opposition, but again
Ferrari has just been on this great pace of run
and qualifying. So an age nine, I think we're getting
value here. But we can't be too disappointed that we
(21:35):
see Lewis or Max pull out something from the bag because.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
We know it's just you know, just to think from
a pre a pure bet, from a pure betting standpoint,
mckil I mean I see books for stapping as sub
two to one, like you could throw let's just say
you throw I see minus one eighty seven, right, So
just from a pure betting standpoint, you're betting three point
six units to win two, and you could throw one
(22:01):
unit on Lewis Hamilton at seven and a half to one,
or I guess your best number at DraftKings right now,
actually even a little bit better than that plus eight fifty.
Let's say you throw one on Hamilton at plus eight fifty.
You're throwing one on Leclair at nine to one. If
ever Stapping in that realm takes fastest qualifier, you get
your money back. Essentially, you're betting to win two units.
(22:22):
You lose the one on Hamilton in Leclair, Hamilton wins,
and that's you know, you're getting eight and a half units.
Subtract the three point six, subtract the one from Leclair
and you're you know, you're you're basically at that point
you doing the math in my head. You're getting three
point nine units back and you're getting four point four
units if Leclair finished.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
Just fastest qualifier.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
Outside of those three, I don't see a world in
which anybody else is on ends up on poll unless
we get some insane monsoon has pole position from twenty
twenty two. I just don't see it. McHale and that,
you know, depending on your bank roll, that can be
a way to at least set yourself up to at
the very least get your money back and if not,
make a nice little splash with some insurance there as well.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Absolutely, so that's what we're looking at. But when I'm
looking at the odds, right, Lanton Norris at fourteen and
Oscar at twenty one, is saying that they are slower
than the Ferraris, and I disagree with that. I think
when the time comes Landa Norris can be just as quick,
(23:26):
if not faster, than the Red Bulls, who are the
fastest car on pace. Right, So the qualifying odds to
me are just absolutely baffling to me. And I'm trying
to figure out what's going on here. Why is maxis
happened minus two and then the next shortest odds on
(23:48):
there is Charles lecler A plus seven fifty. It's a
big discrepancy, which means you can jump on really good
numbers here. Because maxis happened to be this fastest qualify a,
Max has not been qualifying that great. He has been
P two, P three, P two, P three, P one,
he's been bouncing again. As I said, his average qualifying
(24:12):
position is one point seventy five, so he's been qualifying
within the top three.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hey, we've got we've got multiple opportunities to get some points,
make up some ground.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Baby.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
We only have twenty points to make up over three
races plus a sprint race, so let's go excited for
that this weekend, all right, Please, if you haven't done
so already. If you've got a second, give us a
little review, a little a little five star rating if
you don't mind doing so for this pot. It's been
a blast year covering every race in the F one
calendar throughout the twenty twenty three season. We have a
couple more races as well, because we'll have our full
(24:44):
recap reaction to the race weekend coming up early next week,
and we'll start to get your set for the race
that a lot of folks in the US have been
waiting for all year. It's the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Speaker 4 (24:53):
Only a couple weeks. Michale Away, McHale.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
It's coming up fast, so we have a lot to
look forward to, even though the vers in constructors Championships
have already been decided. So for Michael Miranda, I'm Ben Wilson.
We will catch you next time. Best of luck with
all your bets this weekend from the Soal Polo Grand Prix.
As we say so long on the v SIN Formula
One Betting Podcast.
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:05):
A flight down Away we go check this alegend absolutely animal,
the only F one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 4 (00:13):
Michael is right, check and ship get alady do.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
What you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michail Miranda
and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (00:24):
We are back.
Speaker 3 (00:25):
It is the third straight week of racing in Formula
one here on the F one Betting Podcast. Michail Miranda
is here. Some of the drivers you know might be tired, McHale,
but you're not third leg at the triple header of
the Greats October and November race stretch. I'm Ben Wilson
and already you have some grievances. Michel, you're not happy
about the sprint race this late in the year.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Is that?
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Do I have that correct? You're not a fan of
more racing? Uh?
Speaker 1 (00:48):
I love more racing? Is just that? Wait? Now, at
the end, the hope we're spent was to allow drivers
and teams to catch up to each other, and now
we're just asking too much off team to just get
their cars going. Like I'm pretty sure there are a
lot especially if you're on a absolute loss of engines
(01:10):
and power units into the weekend, you probably are looking
at a lot of grid penalties. And as we have
said countlessly and I have reiterated this point multiple times,
is the fact that teams are still fighting for positions
in the Constructors Championship. It means a lot. It's the
difference between tens of millions of pounds coming to the
(01:33):
team to use for next year on developing the twenty
twenty four car. So, given the fact that we are
asking teams to risk their power units, take a lot
of grid penalties, even in controller electronics, like, yes, a
lot of teams aren't dealing with heavy reliability issues, but
teams that are are fighting for every single scrap of
(01:57):
position they can get. It is vital that they finish
where they want to. So having the sprint race is
more for a grievance than it is for a fan
to be like, yes, let's go racing. We just want
to be able to let them practice, use oldpower units,
see where they are going to qualifying, going to race.
Let's enjoy the last three races of the season.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
And it starts we're recording Thursday night here in Las Vegas.
But starts with the action packed weekend. We'll get the
qualifying Friday, sprint shootout, sprint race Saturday, the sal Polo
Grand Prix. We go to Brazil for Sunday, and this
was a race that had all sorts of chaos in
twenty twenty two. A lot of that was weather related.
In the latest forecast I'm seeing, we'll start with that Mchael.
(02:43):
Since any race it has a history there, we need
to do our due diligence first off and check that
there is rain in the forecast for the Friday qualifying session,
but should be pretty good to go for both Saturday
and Sunday. If you remember, this was the infamous Hostpol
last year, which was the same eventually, just the downpour
that was the pole in the sprint race. Kevin Magduson
(03:04):
in the haz ends up getting on poll for the
sprint race with a red flag coming out in all
sorts of chaos there, But honestly, Il McHale, this should
be outside of maybe some showers during qualifying Friday, should
be a pretty clean race weekend. The biggest thing I
look at is a race that is the third shortest
as far as total lap distance. You have to cover
(03:25):
behind only Monaco infamous short race that will have coming
up this weekend, as well as a couple of you know,
there's really only one of the track that's been shorter
as well, so it is interesting to think about it
from that perspective. You've got kind of a weird general
setup where you're kind of going in a reverse direction
than most tracks.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
You're kind of on a side hill.
Speaker 3 (03:46):
So when you've looked at this and taking the data
over the years, short track kind of a very unique
setup relative to a lot of the other Formula One
grids we watch. What is the main takeaway you have
as far as just witch drivers, which teams are set
up here to have some success down in Brazil.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
So we've gotta look at two things. We've gotta look
at qualifying trimp. We've gotta look at racetrip. These two
points are vital when it comes to looking at this track.
Now with the sprint race, it puts more of a
sprint race trim into question. Now, so let's talk about
qualifying trim. Because this is a short lap, it's a
(04:24):
little bit higher altitude but much lower than Mexico last week.
We're gonna see teams sort of be a little bit
more on the rocket ship end over here. It seems
are gonna be blistering fast, especially since its medium and
high paced corners. You're not gonna see to struggle around
this track too much, which means there's one team that
(04:47):
you and I were disappointed in the beginning of season
that we are now pretty okay with Ferrari. They are
good on one lap pace. So as we're going to
qualifying on Friday, our afternoon, right for into Largus's time,
it's going to be very very important towards the Ferraris
(05:08):
as they will be blistering quick. They're one on that pace.
It's just absolutely astonishing. I don't think Maxi, the stap
and redbul have been able to match it. Now we
are also high in Maxi Stapping because his race droom
and race conversion is much better than the Ferraris. In fact,
the Ferraris seem to drop down and on average two
(05:29):
three positions straight off the line. So you want to
look at Ferrari engine chair to do pretty good. So
you're gonna look at the house of Nika Harkinbak, Kevin
Maxim as Dick Pole last year, especially since the rain
is falling, you might be able to look at some
other teams come in, So you're gonna look at McLaren
and Mercedes. Now, these guys have been absolutely tremendous in
(05:51):
resolving issues with their cars and building up. Now we
do know that the Mercedes is a little bit more temperamental,
so you don't expect too much of the car. But
again this is a track that Louis Hamilton and George
Russell do absolutely love. Mercedes do love this track especially
it's a second home Grand Broot for Loui Sumpson as
he has been a citizen. Now he's been made so
(06:13):
this is going to be very very interesting track to
see for Louis Hamilton. In terms of McLaren, their pace
advantage has been absolutely amazing. We saw Landon Norris just
dominate the track and the last in Mexico. I expect
the same thing from the get go here McLaren. One
piece of advice watch out for your strategy. Please do
(06:35):
not try to build your car for Saturday's sprint shootout.
The maximum amount of points you can get there is
eight to ten. Do not worry about that you're fighting
for twenty five points. This will be an important race
for Louis Hamilton, however, because as you and I both know,
we took a ticket on him to finish second in
the champions for the drivers. So if Louis Hamilton does
(06:58):
really well here has said you does not, we are
looking at a change in positions throughout the weekend. This
is going to be vital as we move forward. You
and I will be sweating our tickets because it's the
future ticket. So this is going to be important as
well as for Surgio Parish going back to Red Bull,
it is important to see how he fairs going because
(07:20):
he did not finish his home Grand Prix taking out
on lap one. He's gonna look to want to fight.
And we have been talking about Daniel Ricardo proving his
worth a little bit. We want to be able to
see is he able to carry that pace going into
INTI Lagos here because if he does, then next season
it might be a big question mark for the second
seat at Red Bull. And That's where I'm looking at
(07:43):
right now. I do have a little sprinkle on Williams
that I'm looking at Alex album again. Great drive in Mexico,
great drive out, So looking at that, I think the
Williams seem that are going to do something similarly here. Again,
I don't expect Alex album the points, even though I
am looking at a ticket for him. I believe at
(08:04):
plus one point fifty on drafting, so I do believe
that he'll finish around the points if he is lucky
enough to get their car in the right window and
the track is cool enough, because that's where william to
sort of add a downfall. When the track was cool
at the tires just work for them. In the car
was just absolutely quick, just rocket ship taking off. When
(08:28):
the tractors get a little bit warmer, it's a little
bit questionable for the Williams driver. But given that there's
going to be rain on qualifying, it's going to bring
a lot of things into question. Which teams will be
able to take full advantage of the wet or the
intermediate skills. Again, some drivers are just really good in
(08:49):
the rain. Let's talk about a driver that is, you
have Landon Norris pretty good, the Aston Martin Lance stroll
really good in the rain, So you might be able
to see Lancerow will do some great things in qualifying.
Hopefully they can convert that good qualifying pace into race space.
(09:09):
But again this is where I would see Lanceroll do
pretty get at So I hope that Lancero can qualify
pretty high and fight off anyone on the back end here.
Speaker 3 (09:19):
Hey, I would love to see Scroll do unqualifying simply
so I could fade him on Sunday.
Speaker 1 (09:24):
Mikhail, absolutely, and you've got to be able to watch
the boks is you might be able to take advantage
of the number that does pop up. You might see
drivers that you don't expect to be up there and
find some plus money value drivers like maybe ask a
pr Street. He might be unfortunate coming in here, because again,
anything can happen. We saw Landon Norris do absolutely phenomenal,
(09:46):
but he got his qualifying messed up in Mexico and
started seventeenth, went on to finish a tremendous fifth on
the grid. So I do see a podium here for
Landon Norris.
Speaker 3 (09:55):
In Intilago's You Do, I wanted to bring up McLaren
because some of the talk with in the paddock this
week with suggesting McClaren maybe playing down their chances a
little bit, just because the specific track. We go to
salth Paolo and there's a lot of medium, low speed corners.
We've seen that be somewhat of a bugaboo for McLaren,
even post upgrades where their pace has just been tremendous.
(10:17):
So what do you make of the comments from inside
the team room saying, yeah, this might not be our
race when you also look at the numbers and see
how great McLaren have been the past few months.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
That's a nice point that you bring up, and I
think that's it's not just them. I think it's everyone
who's running a Miss Cities engine is looking at that way.
I think to the fact that it's a very short track. Right,
Given it's a very short track, sometimes the Miss Cities
engine seems to not like short tracks, especially at this
sort of pace. I don't think it can keep up.
(10:46):
So you're trying to lift and coast as much to
cool the engine and the brakes a little bit more
so as you see the cause, I'm going to be
looking more on the latter movement because I believe it's
got some heavy level movements here. For yeah, it's it's
on a three for later, on three on breaking and
three on tires stress. So this is it's showing that
(11:08):
it's pretty even. But when you add all this up
on a little bit high altitude, it can seem to
take a little bit more from the ties and the
abrasion on the tires. They're looking at more stops, so
the draws will be looking at a get pit stop
strudgie here as well.
Speaker 3 (11:23):
Yeah, it's just it's interesting when you think about the
Mercedes engine and then you also look at the Mercedes
team and how how great they have been even in
years where Mercedes have not been the top dog. Look
at last year George Russell, not only when's the sprint race,
but when's the entire Grand Prix, so he'll be looking
to defend. We'll get into the odds here in a
second and get through McHale's full card. But really fascinating
(11:46):
difference compared to a lot of weeks where you know,
where a lot of weeks we see we see things
pretty much evenly leveled out from you know, winner to
podium to top six to top ten. There's a little
bit more variance this week where you have some maybe
boom or bust type of guys. Charlo Leclair is a
great example. Leclaire is twenty five to one sixth on
the odds board. Yet he is second now in the
(12:07):
odds board to get on pole plus seven to fifty
Maxi stapp and obviously favored in every single market. The
top red bull has already won the world Championship, but
we'll get into that after a break, because I find
that interesting too. Leclair and that one lap pace, like
you mentioned, McHale and the Ferrari have been tremendous.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
We'll see. I'm curious what you think.
Speaker 3 (12:25):
About that plus seven to fifty to get a third
consecutive poll for one Charyl Leclaire.
Speaker 4 (12:30):
We'll get to McHale's full card.
Speaker 3 (12:32):
Let's hit a quick break, come back more breaking down
the Salpollo Grand Prix right here on the vs F
one Betting Podcast.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst McHale, Mourray and hand betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 4 (13:04):
As we get ready to roll into Michale's card.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
And if you missed it, we did a recap of
the last race from Mexico City. Michale, you and I
both made a little future sprinkle. We are in on
Lewis Hamilton to finish seconds in the Drivers' Championship. It's
basically winner without Max Restaff and that's the market we're
betting into.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
So we took a little plus one thirty five on
Lewis Hamilton.
Speaker 3 (13:25):
Essentially it's Lewis versus Sergio Perez right now, and we've.
Speaker 4 (13:28):
Gotten a little line.
Speaker 3 (13:29):
Move in our favor here, Michale, I don't know were
you you moving that line ten cents? It's down to
plus one twenty five now on Hamilton, twenty points down
with three races to go, but he's made up thirty
five points over the last five races.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
Yes, well, I'm looking at this right as logos is
Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton's second. The mass of what we
try to do, it is their circuit. For some reason,
they seem to do well, even though in the car
it does not look like it's ready to perform. Lewis
Hamilton does put in hammettim here, so he's great this track.
The next rack Vegas, no one knows what's gonna happen.
But again, if it's gonna be in the Monico trim,
(14:04):
you're gonna look at Louis something to do pretty well. Here,
especially with the low down fast configuration, the car is
just gonna be absolutely speeding through every single corner of
the track, and last are gonna get to ABUW where
Louis Somemton has won multiple championships and we saw the
fight between him and Max this happened right. So seeing
(14:25):
that these are the next couple of tracks coming up,
and Sergio Preis's dismal run at finishing and the parting position,
so even the top six at times, it's gonna be
very hard for Sergia Barris to hold that second position.
And I think bookmakers are starting to finally catch on
that plus money evaluation on lou something still at a
(14:45):
good value. For me, I will still jump on the
plus one twenty five. That number should be even money
or minus one to five minus one of ten if
I was making that number, because I can see Louis
Hamilton catching up, especially if you have George Russell, I'll
say in fourth, a fifth, holding Sergio Paris outside the
top six with the sprint race. With the race, this
(15:10):
could be a change of fortune moving forward for Lewis
Hamilton anchored work in our favor at least that's the
way that I'm seeing it moving forward in the next
couple of races.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
Yeah, well even just extrapolate this based on the odds, right,
Hamilton is second on the odds board, coming in Maxi
stap in your favorite minus four hundred to win this
week at the Soupollo Grand Prix Sergio Paris, dropping all
the way down to twenty to one the second Red Bull.
And so let's just say in the last three races
of the season, you know, McHale completely reflect the odds
as they as they stand now that hardly ever happens,
(15:42):
but let's just say it does. And you know, and
you look at where these drivers are at and you go,
you know, second, fifth, second fifth, second fifth. I mean
you just look at it from a pure odds relative
to point standpoint, how that all you know, how that
all is is correlated here? And you know, let's if
you just blindly do it that way, you're looking at
a position where and you know, and if you look
(16:03):
at the you know, the points in general here, you'd
be looking at making up eight points basically per race,
which is all you need on average. So the odds
are telling you as much as they are wont to
change week in week out odds are telling you that
this is about based on extrapolating that out, Michale, just
on a pure numbers perspective, It's about a coin flip, right,
And as you mentioned, we're getting plus one thirty five
(16:24):
and even betters now get plus one twenty five. So
I do like where. I like that you got me there.
I'm totally with you on that bet though. But to
start your card, where was the first place.
Speaker 4 (16:34):
You wanted to go? Here?
Speaker 3 (16:35):
Looking at the Grand Prix this weekend with we've got
qualifying Friday, sprint shootout, sprint race Saturday, then the big
old race coming up on Sunday, so.
Speaker 1 (16:45):
Important thing here is I've got too faster qualifier bets
from DK. The reason why I got to is because
I do believe that the Ferrari will put in a nice, good,
tirely lap around the Insulago circuit. So first Charles Leclaire
a plus seven fifty and then Carlo Science at eleven
(17:07):
to one. Now I know betters out there asking this
is not a good strategy. I tried to find Ferrari
as fast as qualifier and I could not find that
number or that menu anywhere. So in order to match
the number I've just taken the plus seven fifty and
(17:28):
eleven to one. I don't mind losing either one of
both these bets because I know it's a little bit
of a long shot. But given the run that Ferrari
has been on, especially in Austin, Mexico, where they do
not expect to do well, and they've done really well
in qualifying, this is going to be a bet that
I'm going to be high on. The Next thing I'm
going to be looking at is a podium position for
(17:51):
Charles Leclair at plus two seventy five, again quick laps
around Racestrim. Ferrari does seem to pull back a little bit,
but I'm going to look at Charles Leclair here, and
then Lewis Hamilton and minus one seventy five. As I
have mentioned before, this is Lewis's track for some reason.
(18:12):
He can just flip on a switch and go, and
I love that about Louis, especially here in his lagos.
Last that I have is Alex Albin top ten and
plus one fifty. These are my single bets that I'm
looking at. I do have some parlays here that I
do love, so the first one is a three pick parlay.
(18:37):
So I'm going to take the Alex album top ten,
Charles Leclair podium position and this will be a Lewis
Hamilton winner for the race plus a fifty. I know
this is a long shot. The odds that's showing me
here in DK is plus eighty eighth six. Right this
(19:00):
is it's showing you it's a long shot right here.
And I do believe this is a long shot. But
here's the reason I do. Louis Hamilton finished second last
year behind George Russell, and that was the car that
did not look that good compared to the Red Bull.
So if Rebel don't seem to carry for anything over here,
(19:20):
this will work out in my favor. The next is
a two pick parlay Oscar Piastre top six at minus
one and five and Charles Leclara Perdium finished. This is
at a plus six thirty two, so a little bit
longer shot, but again still normal out there. And that's
all that I have for my bets for this weekend
(19:43):
here at the Insula August circuit for the Brazilian Grand Prix.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
Well, I'm glad I set you up before the break
on thoughts on qualifying, I had no idea you were
betting Leclaiir. I you know one book I'm looking at
here in Las Vegas, I see Leclair nine to one
to finish as the fastest qualifier. So it's only natural,
right when you look at the one lap pace of
the Ferrari. How the as you mentioned how the Ferrari
engine tends to perform very well on these tighter circuits
(20:09):
where you have the you look at it in general,
and you're you're at are you're at a track that
has some more of the medium low speed corners. It
would make a lot of sense, right for Leclair to
keep this dynamite one lap pace going as much as
as much as that takes away the handicap of hal
Frederick Vassar, the team principal elects to handle the actual
race strategy. You're kind of throwing that out the window.
Speaker 1 (20:30):
Right, Yeah, absolutely, And it's I don't know if it's
interesting concerning to me that the books have Ferrari a
long shot on fastest qualifier. I'm trying to figure out why. Yes,
we get that Louis Hamilton and Maxi stapp And can
(20:51):
absolutely be dominant at this track, but odds off nine
to one eight to one seems too much. So either
the books know something that we don't, or the books
have not accounts it for Ferrari's one lap pace. So
this is a shot in the dark here. Again, anything
(21:12):
to do with betting is a shot in the dark.
We adjust, look at the nice evaluate opposition, but again
Ferrari has just been on this great pace of run
and qualifying. So an age nine, I think we're getting
value here. But we can't be too disappointed that we
(21:35):
see Lewis or Max pull out something from the bag because.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
We know it's just you know, just to think from
a pre a pure bet, from a pure betting standpoint,
mckil I mean I see books for stapping as sub
two to one, like you could throw let's just say
you throw I see minus one eighty seven, right, So
just from a pure betting standpoint, you're betting three point
six units to win two, and you could throw one
(22:01):
unit on Lewis Hamilton at seven and a half to one,
or I guess your best number at DraftKings right now,
actually even a little bit better than that plus eight fifty.
Let's say you throw one on Hamilton at plus eight fifty.
You're throwing one on Leclair at nine to one. If
ever Stapping in that realm takes fastest qualifier, you get
your money back. Essentially, you're betting to win two units.
(22:22):
You lose the one on Hamilton in Leclair, Hamilton wins,
and that's you know, you're getting eight and a half units.
Subtract the three point six, subtract the one from Leclair
and you're you know, you're you're basically at that point
you doing the math in my head. You're getting three
point nine units back and you're getting four point four
units if Leclair finished.
Speaker 4 (22:39):
Just fastest qualifier.
Speaker 3 (22:41):
Outside of those three, I don't see a world in
which anybody else is on ends up on poll unless
we get some insane monsoon has pole position from twenty
twenty two. I just don't see it. McHale and that,
you know, depending on your bank roll, that can be
a way to at least set yourself up to at
the very least get your money back and if not,
make a nice little splash with some insurance there as well.
Speaker 4 (23:04):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (23:04):
Absolutely, so that's what we're looking at. But when I'm
looking at the odds, right, Lanton Norris at fourteen and
Oscar at twenty one, is saying that they are slower
than the Ferraris, and I disagree with that. I think
when the time comes Landa Norris can be just as quick,
(23:26):
if not faster, than the Red Bulls, who are the
fastest car on pace. Right, So the qualifying odds to
me are just absolutely baffling to me. And I'm trying
to figure out what's going on here. Why is maxis
happened minus two and then the next shortest odds on
(23:48):
there is Charles lecler A plus seven fifty. It's a
big discrepancy, which means you can jump on really good
numbers here. Because maxis happened to be this fastest qualify a,
Max has not been qualifying that great. He has been
P two, P three, P two, P three, P one,
he's been bouncing again. As I said, his average qualifying
(24:12):
position is one point seventy five, so he's been qualifying
within the top three.
Speaker 4 (24:17):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (24:18):
Hey, we've got we've got multiple opportunities to get some points,
make up some ground.
Speaker 4 (24:21):
Baby.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
We only have twenty points to make up over three
races plus a sprint race, so let's go excited for
that this weekend, all right, Please, if you haven't done
so already. If you've got a second, give us a
little review, a little a little five star rating if
you don't mind doing so for this pot. It's been
a blast year covering every race in the F one
calendar throughout the twenty twenty three season. We have a
couple more races as well, because we'll have our full
(24:44):
recap reaction to the race weekend coming up early next week,
and we'll start to get your set for the race
that a lot of folks in the US have been
waiting for all year. It's the Las Vegas Grand Prix.
Speaker 4 (24:53):
Only a couple weeks. Michale Away, McHale.
Speaker 3 (24:55):
It's coming up fast, so we have a lot to
look forward to, even though the vers in constructors Championships
have already been decided. So for Michael Miranda, I'm Ben Wilson.
We will catch you next time. Best of luck with
all your bets this weekend from the Soal Polo Grand Prix.
As we say so long on the v SIN Formula
One Betting Podcast.
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