November 16, 2023 • 53 mins
Get ready for the highly anticipated return of the Las Vegas Grand Prix! Join us for a special betting preview episode where we welcome F1 Capper Shady Sawas as our esteemed guest. Together, we delve into the exhilarating world of Formula 1 betting, analyzing the odds and strategies for the much-awaited race in Las Vegas. Don't miss this insightful discussion with Shady Sawas as we gear up for high-speed action and thrilling bets in the City of Lights! 🏁🎙️💡 #VegasGP #F1BettingPreview #ShadySawas #PodcastInterview
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:05):
Ay flight Down, Away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check for this allegend absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 4 (00:13):
Michael's ride find up Chef a ship.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Can already you're your hosts F one technical analyst Mikail
Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (00:24):
Well, the week is finally here. We have made it.
It is deep and ultimate weekend of the twenty twenty
three Formula One season and we're back on the Vison
F one Betting Podcast with Michail Miranda. I'm Bet Wilson,
the Las Vegas brand. Pre You can't believe I'm actually
saying those words with Kim, because because it is here,
there has been a whole lot of locally for us
being based in Vegas, a lot of negative publicity about
(00:45):
with how it is just a nightmare trying to get
around the city right now for those of us who
live here. But at the same time, we're really excited
for the racing and we actually will get into this.
Michael sounds like we'll actually get really lucky with the weather.
Are going to be a little bit warmer than originally
expected for some night rates on the street circuit, right
on the strip. So let's get into it, Michael. As
far as all these storylines, there's so much, so many
(01:07):
of them here coming into the race week. What's the
biggest one you're interested in? I would assume it's the track, right,
just how it that's actually going to set up here
on a track we have yet to see here in
modern Formula one.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
So here's one thing that I've heard. It's not the track,
it's Vegas themselves. That's the story around that I've heard
is that Vegas has hyped up this truck so much
that they have to deliver, because if they don't deliver,
people saying that they're not going to be interested in
this track. It's a little inconvenient for Vegas that there
(01:39):
is no title fight here. I think there was a
title fight that would have been even better to watch
if something was going on right here to the Penaltibo race.
But because it's a title fight and it's just the
teams fighting for second position and below that, Vegas has
to deliver here.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
I hope they do, because this is Vegas, it's part
of city, it's in city, it's entertainment capital of the world,
that's Vegas. I really hope that they did deliver. And
the reason why I say this is because I have
this take that I don't think everyone fully supports or understands.
(02:21):
My take is that Vegas has come in three years
too early. I don't think they had time to take
a look at what Miami was doing. They rushed it
last season to get it on for this season. I
think if they waited till the engine regulations where there
was no more home relegation, I think that would have
(02:42):
been better racing for Vegas, just like what we had
last year when the teams got all shaken and stirred up.
Because this season, Rebels ran away with it, Max ran
away with it. There was nothing there and as the
latter races got We're like, while watching the rest of
the season, now all right, And that fatigue of watching
(03:04):
formul one, I think has now led into Vegas.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Yping up to date.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Oh guys, start piping this up and now you'll deliver it.
So yeah, and that's what I'm looking at in terms
of story launch.
Speaker 5 (03:18):
Well, fortunately for us, like I was saying, whether not
going to be as big of an issue as far
as the cold that might have been perceived your latest forecast.
So I remember we have the very late nights Friday
night qualifying Saturday night race itself for the TV purposes
back in Europe. So Friday nights looks like McKay will
be at around sixty degrees for qualifying a Saturday night,
(03:41):
around fifty nine for the actual race. So it's not
bad whatsoever the original rumors with that, oh, this thing
might get into the low forties fahrenheit wise, but not
going to be that bad. I need your take though
on the actual circuit that we're seeing, because you know
there's a couple of This is a three point eighty
five miles street circuit. You've got a really long streets. Yeah,
(04:03):
look for you.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
I test drove the circuit. I got to it. I
got to meet Logan sergeants yesterday. While meeting him, Williams
had their sort of spots set up. So I got
to race the the F one circuit here for Vegas.
Speaker 5 (04:24):
That's my first question.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
I did, and it's not it's not a it's not
on a turn you expected, because I saw Logan sergeants
do the same thing as well. Now his steering wheel
have not been calibrated properly. To him, I saw that,
but everyone seems to have an issue with this specific turn,
(04:46):
turn number five. That that's the first DRS zone that's there,
and turn number five is the turn that gets you
into the MSD parabolica. We half sort of republica. The
reason why that one is so difficult is that's a
short straight, but the amount of speed that you carry
(05:06):
down that straight, it's very difficult to break. It's a
very tight right hander at that speed. Right if you
were at any if you had gear five, gear six,
it was easier to turn. But when I was down
that straight, it took me three laps before I figured
out where the breaking point needed to be, and that
front end for that car needs to be pinpoint to
(05:29):
turn in right. The other ten that I had a
little bit of issue was was they turned from seven,
eight and nine again on the MSc sphere part that
your cane is a little bit new. That's a left,
sweeping right and a tight left before you get around there.
That sort of it looks like it happened, but it's not.
(05:52):
That left. The last turn right there that was difficult
to turn in to turn now was a bit difficult.
The turn five turned like a little bit difficult on
teams g to be on that. But the greatest place
for overtaking ten fourteen fifteen sixteen If you can nail
that one right. There's a little bit run off there
so you can like make that turn. But if you
(06:14):
can nail that breaking legs into that corner, you can
overtake there. And ten one is another place for great overtaking.
This track is built for speed. When they said they
modeled the track after the Temple of Speed, oh my god,
was this track fast?
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Like I just.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
Couldn't believe that. I was on the limitter for the
car down the strip straight. It was amazing.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
I have to think the strip straight is what we're
going to see as far as overtaking and general action
because of just the length of it in general. And
you talk about that speed.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
The opposite, so you think you'll think so, I think
there won't be much overtaking there. I think we'll be
in the DRS train there and as we get into
that turn, footy, that's why you'll see a lot of
the overtaking. So I is who get the back end
of the strip take gain to this thought finished straight?
I think that little chicane sector three that we'll see
(07:11):
quite a bit of overtaking because once you get from
ten nine, ten, ten, twelve and eleven are not really
tight turns, so you can see some teams trying to
do something over there. But I think Sector three is
where you'll see mess of the overtaking once you pass
the strip straight.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
Okay, good to know on that front. And we've got
to make a show for you today because it is
the Las Vegas Grand Prix after all, we'll get our
full betting cards in. I am excited Mikhaie to talk
about all the different books now that are that have
gotten into this game and are offering tons of different
markets and prices, which is really nice for us as better.
So we've got a lot more options to choose from
than we have had for the majority of our weekly
(07:49):
races throughout the season. When we come back, though, we
will get into our very special guests for this episode,
Shaddy so us we'll join us here is F one
Capper part of a big F one money gang podcast network,
so welcome in. Shatty coming up next, and then we'll
get into our best bets for the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Michael,
(08:09):
I know you have a ton of them. We'll get
into all that. Really excited to bring you this special
episode of the Vson F one Betting Podcast. Shatty so
he joined us right after this that we'll come back
get our best bets for the race as you listen
here on.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Vson, Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only
(08:44):
F one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F
one technical analyst Mikail Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
As we're back. It is the Vson Formula one Betting
Podcast with Michale. I'm Ben, and we are really excited
now for this segment. We promised Michael we pull out
all the stops here for race week ahead of the
Las Vegas Grand Prix. I want to welcome in Shaddy
Sawas who joins us right now, the F one capper
that is where you find him on all the social
(09:14):
media platforms as his own podcast as well. Shaddy, thank
you so much for joining us here this week. Want
to start off just tell us little bit about what
you do, how your season is going from the overall
betting perspective, and just how things have developed for you
guys over the past calendar years.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
So yeah, no, I appreciate you guys having me on again.
Really excited to be on the show with you guys.
So yeah, So I'm F one capper. I had been
doing this now for two seasons, actually just posting it
on socials for two seasons. I actually work a brand
which we call F one Money Gang right now. So
(09:48):
we give out betting tips, fantasy tips, Daily Fantasy, and
some of the pick coms, and we actually dive into
indie car as well. There's about like twelve of us
where we collaborate, so all across the world, I guess
from UK, Norway, Canada and as far as performance performance,
I'm not gonna lie guys. This year has been a
(10:09):
little bit more challenging than years past, but we are
still profitable. I think I'm up thirty one units on
the season. Now, that's not compared to a few of
our tipsters who are actually up like fifty eight and
sixty eight units. So again, this year, the season has
just presented all sorts of challenges from different tires that
(10:31):
restrictions in certain races, and obviously the sprint races makes
it a little bit more challenging. But yeah, no, it's
been been solid so far.
Speaker 5 (10:39):
Hey man, thirty plus units, that's nothing to you know,
sniffing exactly well, I know Michael has a bunch of
questions about for you, specifically just how you handicapped this
race as we go forward. I'm curious before we get
into that, though, you talk about the challenges of this
year and anytime you're in a season where it has
been so shocky and in a championship market right where
(11:01):
you're now having to lay three four dollars every single
race week, something that most betters who are experienced are
no matter what the circumstance, No matter the circumstance, really
you're not going to do on a guy's dominant as
Max or Stapping. What have been the markets you've found
to have the most success When you're talking about a
season like this where it is really really hard thinking
about how j just everything is to actually find bets,
(11:21):
you can fall in love.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
Okay, so my bread and butter, hands down, the best
way you can find opportunities, even if you're laying, is
going to be in the head to head. So as
you get through a race weekend, as you see the
free practices, you get to see more of the data,
so you get to a better understanding because it's all
about the tires at the end of the day, and
how do these drivers protect their tires. Obviously performance of
(11:44):
the car as well, but head to head that's just
the way I leverage myself going into a race. Even
in free practices, we find that different trends and free
practices that allow us that opportunity to strike on some
odds before the books catch on started adjusting to them.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
So that's my style.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Now, some other people that I know will definitely be attacking,
like both cars in top tens, top six, it's been
successful in that way.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Example last year was Alpine.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
You could have just blindly bet them top ten at
plus one ten, plus one seventy five at points and
it would have just hit because you had two drivers
that were just attacking that midfield. But this year, the
reason why it's been more challenging is you've had more
diversity outside of course of Max for stap In, you
(12:34):
had McLaren and Aston Martin kind of enter the chat
between Mercedes and Ferrari, so that makes it a little
bit more challenging. And then how do you adjust that
to the odds and how are the books looking at
it as well, and then of course it goes back
to the track set up and everything. So I would
say those were like the key ones that I would
attack for sure.
Speaker 4 (12:56):
So normally when all like F one stuff all move
technically based, so I always look at how cars are
the performance space and how they seem to be coming
up throughout the season. Now our pane, they are running
the renold engines in the back of their cars, right
that power unit has been twenty kilometers slower on average
(13:17):
compared to the Rebel and to the Mercedes engine and
Ferrari engines. So when I look at Alpine, I take
that into consideration quite heavily because I know those cars
are rarely going to be in the top six. That
battle just isn't going to be there unless something crazy happens,
(13:38):
like we saw back in Australia where they were running
quite good in the top ten and in the restart
they both crash out from that. So I think that
in the Conspiracy also usban Arkhan seems to have this
wave in performance this year be a ghastly a little
bit more consistent. But when I look at Espanaca and performance.
(13:59):
It seems to be Bay something that has been shifting
like a pendulum back and forth. Some races you can
get the car turned on most of the races he doesn't.
So I tend to look at drive a mentality, drive
performance in that way. Is that something that you look
at as well? When you try to look at teams
and draws.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You're spot on.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
And that was the reason why I've I've avoided Alpine
this year is because of those inconsistencies you would see
in Oconn in Ghastly too in the early season. Was
you didn't understand where it was he going to be
ahead of his teammate, was he going to be below?
And then yes, absolutely going back to the car performance, Uh,
you know driver performance too at a specific track, you
(14:41):
always have to factor those things going in.
Speaker 5 (14:43):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
It does make it challenging and that's why this year
I go back to my first statement, why it's been
challenging this year is because it's been kind of hard
to predict where are these guys going to be Like
last week, you know you're supposed to be on a
low downforce or a high downforce track like that should
be that should level the midfield a little bit more,
and you know, versus you have a track like this
(15:05):
weekend that's going to be super low downforce. I expect
Alpine is not going to be as competitive because of
those long straits compared to a Williams, who will outperform them.
They just have the better track set up for it.
So there's lots of factors even beyond that. But absolutely
on we always look at the driver, We look at
(15:26):
the car performance and how it's set up. And thanks
to Perelli too, you know, they put that out early
in the week and they let you know which is
going to be the lowest and highest downforce, which we
already know by now. But and then we always look historically.
So I personally did the newer cars. I don't like
to go beyond last twenty twenty two because we're in
(15:47):
a new regulated car, so I want to that's my
benchmark is the past two years. Next year I expected
even be better because now we have two years of
data on these these drivers in these cars as well,
So yeah, of that goes factor into it.
Speaker 5 (16:02):
Yep. But it's a great point you make. I mean,
there's so much to you know, to break down on
that and so that's how we honestly, you know, start
to start the show most weeks, right, Michael, It's like, yeah,
the game of whack them all you play, right, McHale.
The way the season has gone on, I mean, and
Alpe you have probably been really the kind of the
chief team for that starting when they fired everybody, and
it's like you have no idea what you're getting week
(16:23):
after week, and that obviously, as we've talked about, as
a huge impact on who's rounding out those points positions.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Yeah, absolutely, Like I think Ben and I have taken
some tames completely out of consideration for betting. Two of
this tams though, Alpha Romeo and Alpha Tori before Daniel
Ricardo came in, both Ben and I deemed them as
just irrelevant, right, because every time we see Alpha Romeo
try to do something, their changes aren't significant enough to
(16:55):
consider them to be top ten or even like to
take them head to head, because they just don't seem
to be relevant enough for us to bet. There's nothing
coming out from that garage, and every time we try
to see something make changes, it's like, yeah, but you
get your car to where everyone else had that car
(17:15):
to start the season, so you do not much for us,
and recently Alpha Tori have been coming back in the
talks just because of Danny Ricardo's amazing performance, especially after
breaking his wrist. He has done great, great racing and
bringing back and feeling like more himself in the Rebel
compared to when he was at McLaren or even when
(17:37):
he was there at the Rentald alping scene back then.
So are those teams that you look at a little
bit more now that you're seeing that we're coming to
a track like this where the championship's already wrapped up right,
everyone's scrapping out for positions because that means where they
finish it's tens and millions of pounds different for where
(17:59):
they can actually developed the connext year? Do you look
it up for Romeo and Alfatari and a little bit
different line and have a little bit more focused to
see if you can make some more money off.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
That, you know, I try to keep an open mind
and I'm gonna stick to Alfa Romeo since you are
on that topic. But quite honestly, I am the same
way they're in in betting jail for me like I
won't touch them. And last week is a great example.
I said, you know what, I'm going to take one
of them out of betting jail, which was Joe over
Sergeant I. That was the one head to head I
(18:32):
did not hit in the race last week, and this
is this is the reason why. And I'm only I'm
the only person to blame for that.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
I just can't.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
I will keep an open mind though every week I
will look into it.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
But to your point, I don't.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
I can't just back inconsistency or inconsistent drivers. And yeah,
you brought up another good point, like when is it
a buy buy low situation? And I've said this many
times with my guys. Perez is a great example of
this while he's had his mid season shambles. Do you
really want to try to catch a falling knife? Even
(19:09):
though the odds are there and they look juicy and
it's a red bull car? Do you want to catch
a falling knife? Because every time that's just going to
ding your profits in the end. And I'm more I
want to think long term and I want to make
sure that I'm profitable long term, so.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
I got to be very careful.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
I would rather take a consistent odds and driver and
put more money and even lay than I would taking
like a you know, plus two hundred on an alpha
romea like botas to get top ten.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Right, I just I can't do it. I just can't
get myself to do it.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
But I do try to find the opportunities because again,
books are a lot sharper with F one definitely hands
down in the past year. So you do have to
try to keep an open mind, but also keep that
in the back of your mind, mind of inconsistencies. You
got to just stay away from that.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Yeah, the open mind, because I mean Mikhale knows I've
I've given him crap many many an episode about anytime
he's he's like, oh you know, hus, might you know
one lap pace and Mchael's it's very interesting.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
I'm not I'm not gonna like.
Speaker 4 (20:22):
He's done. Nico Hockenberg is great at one one pace.
He's he gets that car into the top three. Right.
I wish they gave a market, like do you think
Nico Holckenberg will make it into Q three of qualifying?
Like that will be a great market because now you
can make some money. Like then if you take him
head to head qualifying against Kevin Magnuson, Yeah, you can
(20:43):
make some money again, but like those markets are those
markets are there. So then you try to look, Okay,
if Nico Hockenberg starts here and someone who's got a
greater pace than Nico Hockenberg over a race distance, you
try to see, all right, now, who is plus money
after quality because they just had a bad qualifying Landon
Norris sometimes ends up in that position. He just did
(21:05):
that a couple of weeks ago, right, so that's where
you can make some money. Way, oh, look at Nico
Hockenberg to do this, but something out of the bad.
But what you're doing secretly is hoping that the bug
stone cats that you're eyeing someone else who just had
a bad run at qualifying cat a nice good plus
(21:26):
money number on him, and you take that that's happened
to Maxim staff and last year multiple times where he
qualified around p ten and they had him at plus
one twenty. I'm like, take him, Bet him as much
as possible because you know he's gonna win the race
no matter what people do.
Speaker 5 (21:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
No, And just going back to the open mind comment,
like with the reason why I keep that open mind,
that goes back to I have a strict way of
approaching a weekend. Now, let's throw away sprint weekends for
out of the equation for a second.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Those are challenging on its own.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
You only have one FP session, But like if you
have a traditional three FP sessions, I get to pull
in all the data. I get to pull in and
see like consistency. I can easily put up the quality
sim pace. I can see everything race pace, I do
sector times. So then if I see that discrepancy in
(22:18):
any way, I will then consider it. But for the
most part, when you approach a weekend, I just there's
times where I won't be able to do it.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
And yeah, like has I just rarely bet them.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
But you know, most people on my in my group,
they love to attack like hulkover Magnuson even at like
minus two fifty odds because they know it's just clear
Magnizon is not going to be there up there. So
and Alfatari here Actually recently, Aston Martin is a great
example of how that came back to bite us a
(22:54):
few times because we're like, WHOA, what happened? They dropped
off significantly. I had to put him in temporary betting jail,
as I would say, just because I was like, I'm
not going to try to catch the falling knife. Until
I see what they're doing and they're producing, I'm willing
to pay in the premium to know that, yes I can,
(23:14):
I will have that advantage.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
So it's challenging for sure.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
I just got to say this, right. I know, as
the Martin, everyone's looking at them as they dropped off
significantly throughout the season, but I don't look at it
that way. Here's how I look at it. I think
Acid Martin finally found the car that they needed and
they spent all their research and dev work on building
(23:45):
that solid base. Because even now the Mercedes still isn't
as strong as the Acid Martin. There's no they have
a better driver parent, but they are not stronger than
Acid Martin. Just on looking at it on paper and
looking at it in sim quality and race day simulations. Right,
What's happened here is that they are working at next
(24:09):
year's car, and I know coming out from next year
that they will be better than what they were at
the end, and I think that's what they wanted. That's
where Laurencetrow, That's where Lancetrow, That's where Fernande Lando and
Mike Crack were looking at the call like, let's build
a phenomenal base that can fight in the top six
(24:29):
and we will move on from there because we know
that Laurenstrow came out very very eloquently and just sternly saying, hey,
we want to be a championship winning team. Now everyone
in the community is like, you guys, and you you
guys just got penalized for being the pink Mercedes. You
(24:49):
really think to be a championship team? Just you rebranded
as Aston Martin. Wow, we know as Martin was there
sixty years ago in F one, but are you really
thinking gonna be championship? And then they backed up that
statement this year like, oh okay, all right, they are
coming out swinging. So I think what we're gonna look
(25:10):
at as Martin is long term picture and not short yeah,
and upgrades. So when you look at it that way, yeah,
So it's when you look at it with that perspective,
they have not regressed. What they have is just a
little bit drop in performance. To focus on the cars
next year and keep building off of that because the
(25:30):
more they can focus on next year's car, the stronger
they will be. Now we already know that Red Bull
did not take their wind tunnel penalty that they got
from twenty twenty two this year that will be moved
on to the RB twenty car. So we're going to
see a little bit drop off and performance from Red
Bull coming out of next year. Already, that's that's gonna
be a given, right, So maybe McLaren and ASA Martin
(25:54):
and if Ferrari can get their winter season and winter
testing right, that will be a big swing coming out.
And that's the way that I look at as smart
and look at these teams coming up. Mercedes, to me,
I still feel like they have a long way to go.
They that that car is so dragging a straight line, right,
And as we talk about Vegas in the coming minutes here,
(26:16):
I don't trust Mercedes for the next two races as
we get to depend ultimate race, yeah, Vegas.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Yeah, I kind of agree. They're on Mercedes.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
They definitely had taken a step back, definitely a draggy car.
I mean, it's just been a weird project, wild project,
I guess you can say, from the W thirteen to
the fourteen, and they even admitted it. They know that
there's issues and you can hear it in the tones
of the drivers at times on weekends like they have to.
They're setting up the car just for the race, and
(26:47):
they can't even qualify high enough at times, so that's
just a big tell for them. And I agree, I
don't know. I don't expect them to do well here. Listen,
this straight is long. It is going to be fair
very long. So they've never had that straight line speed.
I just can't see how they're going to be challenging
(27:07):
in that. And there's not a lot of turns right,
so I can't see how they're gonna That's where they
take advantage in all the races in the past, is
where they're like a little bit low and mid speed
turns and corners, that's where they attack. Unfortunately, they're just
they've been struggling and it did not look good last
week for sure, But yeah.
Speaker 5 (27:29):
I know what did not. Maybe that's a part of
the reason why mister Toto Wolf is not allowing his
employees to partake in any of the Las Vegas festivities
this week. I don't know if there's a there's a
correlation there. If had they been front runners, they'd be like, yeah,
you guys can hit the hit the craft, get to work,
feeling show something good. Right, it is all yes, it
is all business, all business for the Mercedes this week,
(27:51):
so shaddy from that perspective. Now we turn it forward
here to the two race week and so many different
storylines to talk about, whether how the tires we'll look against,
you know, in a backdrop where we might have sub
fifty degree fahrenheit temperatures in a night race in Las Vegas,
and the FIA openly admitting they were not really considering
the weather this time of year when they decided to
(28:14):
schedule the race and bring F one back to Las Vegas.
From a just a general sense, you're early in the
race week here with the odds, Now, who were you
gravitating towards? And I really believing, like should we set
up for success coming into the weekend.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
I mean, I can't stop gravitating to Ferrari as much
as they pain painfully are sometimes most of the time.
You saw it last week with Leclair or even before
formation lap which actually screwed up one of my bets.
I'm gravitating towards that. And you know one odd that
really just struck out to me was, you know, they
(28:49):
got Ferrari as an underdog to McLaren's meaning you know,
one or the other drivers got to just pass the
other McLaren driver. So for anyone that may not know that,
So Ferrari over McLaren, Like, there's odds on that they're
superior on straights, right, they should be the ones that
are one of the fastest on the straits. I think
(29:11):
that you cannot overlook Ferrari, and the odds are are
reflecting it too. The odds are getting pretty low on
what Leclaire's I think he's what three hundred now to
win the race, I think or something like that.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
I'm checking right now. I actually know he's sixteen hundred.
He's forty fourteen to one.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
He was qualifying that I was looking at earlier, but
it was qualifying his qualifying odds were low, and.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
He's yeah, he's plus ful fifty yeah draftings for a yeah,
so for a Foster qualifier and there we like.
Speaker 5 (29:48):
To say, yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
I mean it's you know how it is with Ferrari.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
I mean we always see it every weekend, right, Ferrari
gets maybe the top qualifying spot and then we just
see Max win it because they're so good with their tires.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
But you know, if you're looking at something like that.
But if hey, listen, it's Vegas. If you want to
have a little fun, why not shoot for the stars.
If you really want to throw a little little change here,
I mean, don't obviously do huge units. You might be
able to find something with like fastest qualify and win
the race with the signs. Even so, here's the thing
(30:20):
with this weekend. We don't know what to expect. No
one knows what to expect. They I think they overreacted
a little bit to the weather. They were calling it
like it was supposed to be five degrees celsius in
forty one degrees fahrenheit for our US guys. Now now
we're seeing it's going to be like fifteen degrees. And
(30:40):
you guys are local, so you guys can tell me
it doesn't seem as bad as they made it to be. However,
with the long straights, it is still cold. Breaking is
going to be an issue. Drivers are going to go
off track wherever they have the off track limits are at,
so you're gonna see mistakes. It wouldn't be me if
(31:01):
someone binds it and you know, you see that one
driver in the top ten.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Right.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
You don't know what to expect, but it's going to
be very interesting. Going back to McHale and what he's
saying earlier in the segment, which is let's look at
the car's performance and let's just let's base ourselves. There
a Williams right great on with top speed, you know
they're going to do well. So other odds you can
(31:27):
you can tackle. There's Williams over Alfatari. They're at even
odds against each other. So album might be the best
midfield driver if that's what I'm expecting, so he could
be top ten. The books are also adjusting to that,
So that's kind of where I'm looking. As far as
like we've talked about Mercedes, I'm not going to be
(31:48):
really putting my backing on them yet. I want to
see what they do in practices and then yeah, McLaren
in Red Bull, I expect that they might be competitive,
but McLaren is going to have some issues with top
end speed as well.
Speaker 4 (32:01):
So so here's I bet that I am loving right now,
and that is Carlo Sign's fastest qualer of plus six fifty.
But I'm also looking at Lando Norris at nine to one.
Now here's the reason why I'm looking at these two
over Max or anyone rebel. Rebel have at Achilles heel
(32:24):
that no one's really picked out, and that is that
they can never get their tires right like they get
Maxing whip it up at the end of qualifying, but
it takes them forever to get those tires turned on.
Given the lower temperatures here, I believe that Ferrari can
come out swinging and snatch that up early and just
(32:48):
hinder Max enough towards the end of qualifying to do that.
Or Lando Norris can come in because when I was
looking at the simulations of the top speed of the
cars down the straight, McClaren have been top, with Ferrari
second third, red Bull fourth. This is going to be
hard to believe being Williams at the top speed. So
(33:14):
how do you how do you see that bat right there?
Either Landos or call a science call signs plus six
fifty lands at nine to one for the fastest quality.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
I mean, right there, you called that's That's what I'm
looking for.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Right there is that edge you just called it?
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Red Bull has I don't want to say a problem,
but I want to say certain discrepancies with their tires
right with warming up, and that's going to be a
challenge for everyone, but it seems like it's more so
with Red Bull and we we have seen that a
few times where they've struggled to nail it on that qualifying.
(33:51):
And you don't have to sell me on Lando Norris.
I mean that guy is one of my favorite drivers
on the grid. I actually do dig it and actually
one of my books, I can get it eleven to
one as fast as qualifiers, so I can. You know
what I said, I wanted to do some long shots
and I thought, maybe let me wait until I get
in the conversation with you guys. I'm almost tempted to
(34:12):
throw a little bit down on that just because we
aren't we expecting a little chaos and why not landover right?
Speaker 1 (34:20):
Good driver?
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I am. I'm going to be sprinkling a little bit
on Carlos and Lando because I think they are so close.
And the book or DraftKings, Yeah, has Charles Leclair at
plus full fifty over Carlo Science.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Now.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
The reason why I'm not looking at Charles Leclair is
because Charles has had this sort of mentality where he
needs to prove that he's championship worthy and when he
has that, and the pressure is on at times this
season he could get it on and at times he
could not. So he's given me that inconsistency there, whereas
(34:58):
Carlo Science has been very very consistent where he's like,
I know what I got to do, Leave me be,
And you want to know what a great example of
that is, Let's go back to Singapore where he started
bringing Landon Norris into the DRS and the teams like
what Landon Norris and DRS like, I know I need
him there to stop anyone's going to come get me.
You know, went on to win the race. So I
(35:20):
don't trust Charles declared to be the fastest qualifier. I
trust Carlos signs a little bit more, but signs that
Norris pretty evenly paced on one lap pace. I just
have the McClaren edging them a little bit more, just
because that top end on the McLaren should be down
that straight as you get to the strip straight and
as well as you get to the MSG sphere. I
(35:40):
think McLaren just going to be right on top of that.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
So I got a question for you, how much how much?
How much do you think Leclaire? Like what do you
think Leclaire is a great driver? Not a good driver
a great driver.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Uh, I'll let me ask you this back and I'll
I'll be able to give it. Who would you consider
to be a great driver That way, I know your benchmark.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Okay, I'm gonna say, I mean, obviously great driver. Let's
put Tier one. It's going to be a Lewis Hamilton
and Alonso Max for stap In.
Speaker 4 (36:23):
Okay, So I don't think Leclaire is a great driver.
Here's why I know that. The last time Ferrari have
been in this position was when Michael Schumacher came to
the team and he's like, we're going to rebuild the
entire team's morale and rebuild this car. And it took
(36:45):
him almost two years to do that before we started
winning the championship with before it got passed on to
Rubens Barrichello, Kimmi Ryking in for When Fernando gave the team,
it was not good. Ferrari was deemed this team that
is so elite that it's great drive for Ferrari. But
that's where your career went to die. In the last
(37:07):
couple of years, like we've seen performance drop off. This
is the first time we've had the youngest driver pairing
with Charles Leclair and Carlo Science. So in terms of
great driver, Charles Leclair needs to bring something to the
team where it can be like, we need to fix
this right. And when you say, louse something that's a
great driver he pointed out to Mercedes, until it's wolf like, hey,
(37:29):
this car is undriveable with this concept. It's the whole
reason why they had to rush to get that new concept,
the new floor out was because lose something like I
can pinpoint to you exactly what this car is not
doing compared to our competitors. I don't think Charles Leclair
has a mentality and can set up that car and
be like the team is wrong here, Like in certain
(37:51):
times it can be your strategy is wrong. You're there,
But I mean Carlo Science says that in the car
that's because they don't trust the Ferrari strategists. But in
terms of the team, where they can be leaders to
the team and not the team principal and Frederick Stoor
leading the team, that's something different. That's where I think
comes a great leader and a great driver where and
(38:14):
this is going to be a controversial of them, I say,
I don't think Maxive Stappin is a great driver. I
think he's a very good driver. Just Red Bull hack
he had.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
I love these takes, by the way, I'm sorry, I
love it, Okay.
Speaker 5 (38:31):
Go on.
Speaker 4 (38:31):
Maxis Stappins is a very aggressive driver. He is not
a great driver. Like when the pressure comes down, Max
can only whip it in because the car is doing that.
Put him in the AffA Tory and let's see what
he does. Put him in the Ferrari, Let's see what
he does. You cannot move him to different teams, right.
Everyone knows that the greatest driver of all time is
(38:54):
one popular Fangio, and he won multiple championships with different teams.
In fact, he did it in different cars as well.
There were times where he jumped into his teammates car
that still won the race. Right. I don't think you
can do that with Max vs. Stappin. Loui Samplon is
also a great driver. But again keep this in mind.
All the championships that he's won has been with a
(39:14):
Mercedes engine in the back of the car, so he
knows Mercedes really well. If you were to put Louis
Amilson in a Ferrari or an AVATARO or has can
he still be that great driver. I have so many
questions for the modern day drivers that don't have for
previous drivers like Fernando or Alonso, because he drove it
multiple different teams, won championships. Maybe it's just one team,
(39:37):
but he was able to prove his wordth in different teams.
Like look at him right now at the age of
forty one, forty two years old. Look at where he's qualifying,
look at the fights that he's saying, and look at
his racecraft. That's a that's that's a great driver. Can
Max Vstappen retire, come back at the age of forty
(39:58):
two and do that? I don't think so. Maxis Stepan
is a good driver. He's got the youngness, the aggressiveness
right now, well, I think that will fade and we
will see that happen the next couple of years.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
I love this these takes, and I've been one that's
been very highly critical of Charles Leclair going back a while,
and I've always been saying Signs should be gifted the
opportunity to be the number one driver over Leclair, and
I've been bashed about it. I don't care what people
think about it, but I just I think he's like
(40:34):
you said, he's very inconsistent. He has his moments where
he does flash of you know, I can be good,
I can be great, but that's any driver on the grid.
Speaker 1 (40:43):
Let's just be real.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
So kind of going back to the bet, you were
just calling out, what was the signs over Leclair? What
four to one? I think it was, Uh, whatever it is.
I think that is something I will definitely be eyeing
this weekend. Is I like to do those teammates head
to head because same car teammates like this, you almost
(41:08):
have to benchmark them at the same level. So if
you're gonna tell me signs is four to one to
Leclaire and they're about the same performance level, that's that's value.
At the same time, I know some of my guys
on my crew will be laughing at me, but it's true.
I just I just believe that Leclair has and especially
(41:30):
on a track like this weekend, it would not surprise
me if you've bend it, if he messed up on
a turn, if he does something wrong, because that's what
he does, that's been his mo. So that was the
reason why I brought up that question, just because I'm
interested to see other perspective, personalities perspectives on Leclaire.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
So yeah, no doubt, and I've even seen money has
come into on signs and something that mchai and I
are talking about this episode, especially for the for us
being based in Las Vegas. This is like finally the
one week where we got a nice robust menu of
different options and so I see signs even money against
Leclaire in the actual race matchup. So I mean the
(42:11):
books here have certainly adjusted as much as as much
as they might not have been offering a lot of
things throughout the year, and so that's what makes it
really fascinating too. It just kind of from the natural
betting perspective, and so this was awesome though. Just to
get the kind of the insights the deeper dive here
from shatty Sewash joining us on the Vson F one
Betting podcastle check out the F one Money Gang podcast
(42:31):
and give Shaddy a follow at F one Kapper Again,
shatty Sewash joining us here on the VS and Formula
one Betting podcast. We will take a quick break our
final segment coming up next we get McHale's best bets
for the race. I've got a couple I'm eyeing here
books are giving us some good price, McHale. We'll talk
about it next right after this.
Speaker 2 (43:04):
Welcome to Vson's F one Vetting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst Mikaale, Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (43:16):
All Right, thanks again to Shaddy for joining us. Just
a really insightful and formative conversation. Looking forward to having
him back on the podcast at some point. I have
you been to join this, Please make sure pause for
a second if you don't mind leaving us a review,
give us a little five star rating. I had a
really nice, helpful review from Majeski two four four eight,
saying more insight longer episodes to be my suggestion as
(43:38):
we get close to the end of the year. Also
said he does like both of us, mchael, so that's good.
So we're trying to pay that off. Here we have
a nice long, nearly hour long episode for you here
as we go into the final two races of the season,
this one will be nearly an hour or so, but
it is that time. Mikayl. Let's get into the best
bets I've got two I'm eyeing want to tea up
first though, amidst the all this speed talk and how
(44:00):
these tires will hold up, amidst a brand new track
with no data in the past year in Las Vegas.
Where are you starting your card aths for this weekend?
Speaker 4 (44:08):
So as I said that Shaddley carl of Signs Landon
is going to sprinkle a little bit over there for
fastest qualifier, So at plus six fifty for Carla Signs
Fastest Qualify and Landon Norris ninety one. The next that
I'm looking are the top ten. I have Alex Alder
alban at minus one fifty and Daniel Ricardo at plus
two thirty. I think the Red Bull here and the
(44:30):
Hound of Power units are going to do pretty well
here just because of where we're at and the top speed.
I think the Red Bull and the Hound of Power
unit can hold much to top speed more than any
of the other teams that are there. So Daniel Ricardo
plus two thirty, Alex Album minus one fifty the next
will do top six, Fernando Alonso in the Ascent at
(44:51):
plus one fifteen and Oscar Pia Street at plus one ten,
and then my podium finished Sergio Paris at plus one forty.
I need to point this out and then get a
challenge to point this out. With that shadow before Lewis Hamilton,
his odds have been shifted. I got to speak with
(45:12):
Spurtsberg director of operations, Johnny Yovello last episode, and I
was talking to him about Louis Hamilton, saying that I
think those odds aren't right. They have corrected that. Charles
Leclaric got pushed up to plus one forty. Lewis Hamilton
bought down longer shot at plus one seventy five. His
(45:32):
odds before were plus one ten ahead of Sergio Paris,
and now we are seeing some corrections made. Same goes
with George Russell. Georgeorge, who was around plus four fifty
now at plus five point fifty on equal grounding against
Oscar pr straight. So there are some line changes already
(45:54):
as we head into the Vegas Grand Prix just about
the week apart.
Speaker 5 (45:59):
Fascinating. I have to think, with your conversation with our
friend Johnny Vello at DraftKings, maybe you had some sort
of influence there.
Speaker 4 (46:07):
I was, I was Johnny after I was begging John like, hey,
please take another look at Lose. I don't think those
odds are right. I think that one needs to be
a longer shot. Like the Mercedes isn't good top and
straight line speed. Mercedes does not do good in low
down folk circuits. That is their biggest achilles he the
(46:27):
drag on that car is just too much to place
a one ten bet on Loose Hamilton.
Speaker 5 (46:33):
It's almost like you feel like we're maybe drawing dead
on our Hamilton winner. Without Max re staff and Drivers'
Championship wader MChE are you ready to go?
Speaker 4 (46:43):
I think I think that Sergia Prayers will feel the pressure,
feel the heat and crash out, especially as I was
saying at the circuit where ten five and round turn fourteen,
when you get into that straight I think Sergia Prayers
is going to make some errors this if he is
frushed by Fernando Alonso again, he might stip up make
(47:04):
some errors that could cost him the race.
Speaker 5 (47:07):
Well, speaking too of line moves and how numbers have
really been have been changing, especially over the last week
week and a half or so. The other really nice
impact of having this race in Las Vegas, McHale is
that we have so many different books now that are
offering odds, whether that is across country, East coast books,
(47:27):
older books like in Vegas, where we're at a lot
of different opportunities. So for example, Circa here in Las
Vegas we have a partnership with them at Visen they
have offered odds and for the race, and we haven't
had odds really all season on f one from Circa,
but really advantageous odds. I can get and this is
my favorite bet of the weekend, McHale, I can get
Lando Norris podium finish at minus one forty five at Circa.
Speaker 4 (47:50):
OO podium finished on DK is minus one ninety. Great
odds right there, and there's some nice money take down there.
Speaker 5 (47:58):
I know, I know, Michaell, I know how to get
your fired up. We're getting a forty five second this cup.
And looking shop around, there are other books where I
see Lando and the minus one fifty range, So there
are a lot more books. Because this has been such
a hyped up, as you were talking about mchail earlier
in the episode, such a hyped up race TV wise,
this has been just sort of jammed down everybody's throats
for the for the last couple of weeks, trying to
(48:19):
get as many people involved to watch. As a result,
you will see I would think mchail more favorable betting
odds for the consumer as opposed to some of these
races where we've really just been price gouged by a
lot of the drivers. So I love Norris. Anything sub
one fifty to finish on the podium, that is my
favorite bet as well. And I am actually tailing you.
(48:39):
I was already on this driver anyway, but I'm talking
to Chatty and talking to you. The Alex alban points
finish where I can find him also at circa minus
one forty five, two bets that I really like. Again,
we're talking about drivers in cars who SHO should set
up favorably. You talk about the straight line speed combined
with recent form for both drivers. It is certainly a
(49:01):
situation I'm wanting to get behind each of those guys.
I certainly like Norris a little bit more. You know
in some of the books in Vegas, McHale, I mean
for Stappens down to like minus two twenty to win
the race. So a lot of long shot money coming
in just in the race winter market in general.
Speaker 4 (49:17):
Yes, and I think that's due to the fact that
everyone thinks that Max does not need to race anymore.
Now I know Max a little bit from Wemsing, and
he has no intention of slowing down for people, so
he will just be like a rocket chip. So I
(49:38):
don't expect that number to stay there because a DK,
he's minus six fifty. If you find Max Vsappen at
a minus two dollars price or a minus three dollars
price jump on that number, you will not get those
odds again.
Speaker 5 (49:54):
Yeah, and I think I'm seeing minus four hundred at
DK right now understaping. It's still way more expensive than
what you're paying at some of the other shops around
the country. So it'll be one of those things. It
does vary by jurisdiction, by state where you're in. For example,
CIRCA those odds are available. I believe it's Nevada, Colorado, Illinois.
So again that's a smaller part of our audience. But
(50:15):
there are other books out there too that we don't
have access to that have much more favorable odds. So
I want to make sure we mention that, Mikail, because
this is the one race, so we're getting that set
this year.
Speaker 4 (50:24):
Yep, here's a long shot that I am on Sergio
Paris at twenty to one to win the race. He
is why Sergia Prais has got a good standing when
he comes to street races. I believe there's only two
street races that he's lost. I think he's doing two
this season and the other two winners Max Forstapman hold
out there and Carlos Signs. Given the odds, looking there,
(50:45):
at those numbers, right, Sergia Prais looks to have a
better chance. But again I don't trust Sedjia prayers given
the fact that he's under immense pressure for his seats. Yes,
it's confirmed for next year, but it's not confirmed fully
for next year. He just confirmed that he will start
it in Red Bull next year. Doesn't mean that he
will finish in Red Bull next year.
Speaker 5 (51:06):
That is a big storyline to follow. It's something we've
been talking about. It feels like McHale the better half
of a month or two as far as deeper bets
down in the midfield or any of the we're talking
about the longer shots here. Anything else you're looking to
make your car that might not be as sexy as
these these podium top six finishes.
Speaker 4 (51:27):
No, as we are getting closer to the end of
the twenty twenty three season, I'm looking at teams and
drivers that I trust now, so I don't mind laying
the minus money, but I'm going to be looking at
arts closer to the even even money more in the
minus money now, like as I said, Oskar Piastre plus
one ten closer to even money, Fernando Orlando plus one
(51:48):
fifteen closer to even money. The only ones that is
a little bit longer shot is Daniel Ricardo plus two
thirty and any of my fastest qualifier bets.
Speaker 5 (51:58):
We've seen with all those drivers you talked about, though,
even ones that are not in not in teams you
would consider to be superstar groups, you know, like an Alphatawi.
In the case of Daniel Ricardo, you can at least
point to recent form being really really positive as a
way to get behind those individual bets. So for me,
I'll give out my two Lando Norris podium finished minus
one forty five, and I will say market wide available
(52:23):
at minus one fifty. But I can find some minus
one forty five's out there on the points finished for
Alex Albon in the Williams. I'm tailing you there Michale,
those are my two plays. Your your card is well,
nice and robust here, big guy, ready to go. I'm
excited for this weekend. I know you are as well
as someone who's already been out there, been on the
grounds for the majority of this week leading up to
(52:44):
the race.
Speaker 4 (52:45):
Yes, sir, that I've got two more bets then I
normally put in to am who try to do five
bets and on a weekend. But I have no regrets
with any of the bets that I'm doing.
Speaker 5 (52:56):
No regrets. That is a great that's a great theme
and way to describe our our overall race philosophy heading
into the Las Vegas Grand Prix. All right, that does
it for us. We hope you enjoyed this mega episode.
We'll come back early next week before Thanksgiving recap at all,
because then we go to our final race weekend of
this twenty twenty three Formula One season. So still a
(53:17):
lot for us to get through, even though the championship
has already been decided. So for McHale, I'm ben we
will catch you next time. Enjoy this week weekend. It
is going to be a lot of fun and then
so we'll come back early next week's out and see
how it all breaks down when you tune in. Next
to us right here feasts in Formula one Betting Podcast.
See you next week, Best to pluck, all you
No investigation necessary.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to Vson's F one Betting podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:05):
Ay flight Down, Away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check for this allegend absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 4 (00:13):
Michael's ride find up Chef a ship.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Can already you're your hosts F one technical analyst Mikail
Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (00:24):
Well, the week is finally here. We have made it.
It is deep and ultimate weekend of the twenty twenty
three Formula One season and we're back on the Vison
F one Betting Podcast with Michail Miranda. I'm Bet Wilson,
the Las Vegas brand. Pre You can't believe I'm actually
saying those words with Kim, because because it is here,
there has been a whole lot of locally for us
being based in Vegas, a lot of negative publicity about
(00:45):
with how it is just a nightmare trying to get
around the city right now for those of us who
live here. But at the same time, we're really excited
for the racing and we actually will get into this.
Michael sounds like we'll actually get really lucky with the weather.
Are going to be a little bit warmer than originally
expected for some night rates on the street circuit, right
on the strip. So let's get into it, Michael. As
far as all these storylines, there's so much, so many
(01:07):
of them here coming into the race week. What's the
biggest one you're interested in? I would assume it's the track, right,
just how it that's actually going to set up here
on a track we have yet to see here in
modern Formula one.
Speaker 4 (01:18):
So here's one thing that I've heard. It's not the track,
it's Vegas themselves. That's the story around that I've heard
is that Vegas has hyped up this truck so much
that they have to deliver, because if they don't deliver,
people saying that they're not going to be interested in
this track. It's a little inconvenient for Vegas that there
(01:39):
is no title fight here. I think there was a
title fight that would have been even better to watch
if something was going on right here to the Penaltibo race.
But because it's a title fight and it's just the
teams fighting for second position and below that, Vegas has
to deliver here.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Now.
Speaker 4 (02:00):
I hope they do, because this is Vegas, it's part
of city, it's in city, it's entertainment capital of the world,
that's Vegas. I really hope that they did deliver. And
the reason why I say this is because I have
this take that I don't think everyone fully supports or understands.
(02:21):
My take is that Vegas has come in three years
too early. I don't think they had time to take
a look at what Miami was doing. They rushed it
last season to get it on for this season. I
think if they waited till the engine regulations where there
was no more home relegation, I think that would have
(02:42):
been better racing for Vegas, just like what we had
last year when the teams got all shaken and stirred up.
Because this season, Rebels ran away with it, Max ran
away with it. There was nothing there and as the
latter races got We're like, while watching the rest of
the season, now all right, And that fatigue of watching
(03:04):
formul one, I think has now led into Vegas.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
Yping up to date.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Oh guys, start piping this up and now you'll deliver it.
So yeah, and that's what I'm looking at in terms
of story launch.
Speaker 5 (03:18):
Well, fortunately for us, like I was saying, whether not
going to be as big of an issue as far
as the cold that might have been perceived your latest forecast.
So I remember we have the very late nights Friday
night qualifying Saturday night race itself for the TV purposes
back in Europe. So Friday nights looks like McKay will
be at around sixty degrees for qualifying a Saturday night,
(03:41):
around fifty nine for the actual race. So it's not
bad whatsoever the original rumors with that, oh, this thing
might get into the low forties fahrenheit wise, but not
going to be that bad. I need your take though
on the actual circuit that we're seeing, because you know
there's a couple of This is a three point eighty
five miles street circuit. You've got a really long streets. Yeah,
(04:03):
look for you.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
I test drove the circuit. I got to it. I
got to meet Logan sergeants yesterday. While meeting him, Williams
had their sort of spots set up. So I got
to race the the F one circuit here for Vegas.
Speaker 5 (04:24):
That's my first question.
Speaker 4 (04:26):
I did, and it's not it's not a it's not
on a turn you expected, because I saw Logan sergeants
do the same thing as well. Now his steering wheel
have not been calibrated properly. To him, I saw that,
but everyone seems to have an issue with this specific turn,
(04:46):
turn number five. That that's the first DRS zone that's there,
and turn number five is the turn that gets you
into the MSD parabolica. We half sort of republica. The
reason why that one is so difficult is that's a
short straight, but the amount of speed that you carry
(05:06):
down that straight, it's very difficult to break. It's a
very tight right hander at that speed. Right if you
were at any if you had gear five, gear six,
it was easier to turn. But when I was down
that straight, it took me three laps before I figured
out where the breaking point needed to be, and that
front end for that car needs to be pinpoint to
(05:29):
turn in right. The other ten that I had a
little bit of issue was was they turned from seven,
eight and nine again on the MSc sphere part that
your cane is a little bit new. That's a left,
sweeping right and a tight left before you get around there.
That sort of it looks like it happened, but it's not.
(05:52):
That left. The last turn right there that was difficult
to turn in to turn now was a bit difficult.
The turn five turned like a little bit difficult on
teams g to be on that. But the greatest place
for overtaking ten fourteen fifteen sixteen If you can nail
that one right. There's a little bit run off there
so you can like make that turn. But if you
(06:14):
can nail that breaking legs into that corner, you can
overtake there. And ten one is another place for great overtaking.
This track is built for speed. When they said they
modeled the track after the Temple of Speed, oh my god,
was this track fast?
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Like I just.
Speaker 4 (06:33):
Couldn't believe that. I was on the limitter for the
car down the strip straight. It was amazing.
Speaker 5 (06:41):
I have to think the strip straight is what we're
going to see as far as overtaking and general action
because of just the length of it in general. And
you talk about that speed.
Speaker 4 (06:49):
The opposite, so you think you'll think so, I think
there won't be much overtaking there. I think we'll be
in the DRS train there and as we get into
that turn, footy, that's why you'll see a lot of
the overtaking. So I is who get the back end
of the strip take gain to this thought finished straight?
I think that little chicane sector three that we'll see
(07:11):
quite a bit of overtaking because once you get from
ten nine, ten, ten, twelve and eleven are not really
tight turns, so you can see some teams trying to
do something over there. But I think Sector three is
where you'll see mess of the overtaking once you pass
the strip straight.
Speaker 5 (07:28):
Okay, good to know on that front. And we've got
to make a show for you today because it is
the Las Vegas Grand Prix after all, we'll get our
full betting cards in. I am excited Mikhaie to talk
about all the different books now that are that have
gotten into this game and are offering tons of different
markets and prices, which is really nice for us as better.
So we've got a lot more options to choose from
than we have had for the majority of our weekly
(07:49):
races throughout the season. When we come back, though, we
will get into our very special guests for this episode,
Shaddy so us we'll join us here is F one
Capper part of a big F one money gang podcast network,
so welcome in. Shatty coming up next, and then we'll
get into our best bets for the Las Vegas Grand Prix. Michael,
(08:09):
I know you have a ton of them. We'll get
into all that. Really excited to bring you this special
episode of the Vson F one Betting Podcast. Shatty so
he joined us right after this that we'll come back
get our best bets for the race as you listen
here on.
Speaker 2 (08:21):
Vson, Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast, the only
(08:44):
F one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F
one technical analyst Mikail Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (08:53):
As we're back. It is the Vson Formula one Betting
Podcast with Michale. I'm Ben, and we are really excited
now for this segment. We promised Michael we pull out
all the stops here for race week ahead of the
Las Vegas Grand Prix. I want to welcome in Shaddy
Sawas who joins us right now, the F one capper
that is where you find him on all the social
(09:14):
media platforms as his own podcast as well. Shaddy, thank
you so much for joining us here this week. Want
to start off just tell us little bit about what
you do, how your season is going from the overall
betting perspective, and just how things have developed for you
guys over the past calendar years.
Speaker 3 (09:28):
So yeah, no, I appreciate you guys having me on again.
Really excited to be on the show with you guys.
So yeah, So I'm F one capper. I had been
doing this now for two seasons, actually just posting it
on socials for two seasons. I actually work a brand
which we call F one Money Gang right now. So
(09:48):
we give out betting tips, fantasy tips, Daily Fantasy, and
some of the pick coms, and we actually dive into
indie car as well. There's about like twelve of us
where we collaborate, so all across the world, I guess
from UK, Norway, Canada and as far as performance performance,
I'm not gonna lie guys. This year has been a
(10:09):
little bit more challenging than years past, but we are
still profitable. I think I'm up thirty one units on
the season. Now, that's not compared to a few of
our tipsters who are actually up like fifty eight and
sixty eight units. So again, this year, the season has
just presented all sorts of challenges from different tires that
(10:31):
restrictions in certain races, and obviously the sprint races makes
it a little bit more challenging. But yeah, no, it's
been been solid so far.
Speaker 5 (10:39):
Hey man, thirty plus units, that's nothing to you know,
sniffing exactly well, I know Michael has a bunch of
questions about for you, specifically just how you handicapped this
race as we go forward. I'm curious before we get
into that, though, you talk about the challenges of this
year and anytime you're in a season where it has
been so shocky and in a championship market right where
(11:01):
you're now having to lay three four dollars every single
race week, something that most betters who are experienced are
no matter what the circumstance, No matter the circumstance, really
you're not going to do on a guy's dominant as
Max or Stapping. What have been the markets you've found
to have the most success When you're talking about a
season like this where it is really really hard thinking
about how j just everything is to actually find bets,
(11:21):
you can fall in love.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
Okay, so my bread and butter, hands down, the best
way you can find opportunities, even if you're laying, is
going to be in the head to head. So as
you get through a race weekend, as you see the
free practices, you get to see more of the data,
so you get to a better understanding because it's all
about the tires at the end of the day, and
how do these drivers protect their tires. Obviously performance of
(11:44):
the car as well, but head to head that's just
the way I leverage myself going into a race. Even
in free practices, we find that different trends and free
practices that allow us that opportunity to strike on some
odds before the books catch on started adjusting to them.
Speaker 1 (12:01):
So that's my style.
Speaker 3 (12:03):
Now, some other people that I know will definitely be attacking,
like both cars in top tens, top six, it's been
successful in that way.
Speaker 1 (12:12):
Example last year was Alpine.
Speaker 3 (12:14):
You could have just blindly bet them top ten at
plus one ten, plus one seventy five at points and
it would have just hit because you had two drivers
that were just attacking that midfield. But this year, the
reason why it's been more challenging is you've had more
diversity outside of course of Max for stap In, you
(12:34):
had McLaren and Aston Martin kind of enter the chat
between Mercedes and Ferrari, so that makes it a little
bit more challenging. And then how do you adjust that
to the odds and how are the books looking at
it as well, and then of course it goes back
to the track set up and everything. So I would
say those were like the key ones that I would
attack for sure.
Speaker 4 (12:56):
So normally when all like F one stuff all move
technically based, so I always look at how cars are
the performance space and how they seem to be coming
up throughout the season. Now our pane, they are running
the renold engines in the back of their cars, right
that power unit has been twenty kilometers slower on average
(13:17):
compared to the Rebel and to the Mercedes engine and
Ferrari engines. So when I look at Alpine, I take
that into consideration quite heavily because I know those cars
are rarely going to be in the top six. That
battle just isn't going to be there unless something crazy happens,
(13:38):
like we saw back in Australia where they were running
quite good in the top ten and in the restart
they both crash out from that. So I think that
in the Conspiracy also usban Arkhan seems to have this
wave in performance this year be a ghastly a little
bit more consistent. But when I look at Espanaca and performance.
(13:59):
It seems to be Bay something that has been shifting
like a pendulum back and forth. Some races you can
get the car turned on most of the races he doesn't.
So I tend to look at drive a mentality, drive
performance in that way. Is that something that you look
at as well? When you try to look at teams
and draws.
Speaker 1 (14:18):
You're spot on.
Speaker 3 (14:19):
And that was the reason why I've I've avoided Alpine
this year is because of those inconsistencies you would see
in Oconn in Ghastly too in the early season. Was
you didn't understand where it was he going to be
ahead of his teammate, was he going to be below?
And then yes, absolutely going back to the car performance, Uh,
you know driver performance too at a specific track, you
(14:41):
always have to factor those things going in.
Speaker 5 (14:43):
Uh.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
It does make it challenging and that's why this year
I go back to my first statement, why it's been
challenging this year is because it's been kind of hard
to predict where are these guys going to be Like
last week, you know you're supposed to be on a
low downforce or a high downforce track like that should
be that should level the midfield a little bit more,
and you know, versus you have a track like this
(15:05):
weekend that's going to be super low downforce. I expect
Alpine is not going to be as competitive because of
those long straits compared to a Williams, who will outperform them.
They just have the better track set up for it.
So there's lots of factors even beyond that. But absolutely
on we always look at the driver, We look at
(15:26):
the car performance and how it's set up. And thanks
to Perelli too, you know, they put that out early
in the week and they let you know which is
going to be the lowest and highest downforce, which we
already know by now. But and then we always look historically.
So I personally did the newer cars. I don't like
to go beyond last twenty twenty two because we're in
(15:47):
a new regulated car, so I want to that's my
benchmark is the past two years. Next year I expected
even be better because now we have two years of
data on these these drivers in these cars as well,
So yeah, of that goes factor into it.
Speaker 5 (16:02):
Yep. But it's a great point you make. I mean,
there's so much to you know, to break down on
that and so that's how we honestly, you know, start
to start the show most weeks, right, Michael, It's like, yeah,
the game of whack them all you play, right, McHale.
The way the season has gone on, I mean, and
Alpe you have probably been really the kind of the
chief team for that starting when they fired everybody, and
it's like you have no idea what you're getting week
(16:23):
after week, and that obviously, as we've talked about, as
a huge impact on who's rounding out those points positions.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Yeah, absolutely, Like I think Ben and I have taken
some tames completely out of consideration for betting. Two of
this tams though, Alpha Romeo and Alpha Tori before Daniel
Ricardo came in, both Ben and I deemed them as
just irrelevant, right, because every time we see Alpha Romeo
try to do something, their changes aren't significant enough to
(16:55):
consider them to be top ten or even like to
take them head to head, because they just don't seem
to be relevant enough for us to bet. There's nothing
coming out from that garage, and every time we try
to see something make changes, it's like, yeah, but you
get your car to where everyone else had that car
(17:15):
to start the season, so you do not much for us,
and recently Alpha Tori have been coming back in the
talks just because of Danny Ricardo's amazing performance, especially after
breaking his wrist. He has done great, great racing and
bringing back and feeling like more himself in the Rebel
compared to when he was at McLaren or even when
(17:37):
he was there at the Rentald alping scene back then.
So are those teams that you look at a little
bit more now that you're seeing that we're coming to
a track like this where the championship's already wrapped up right,
everyone's scrapping out for positions because that means where they
finish it's tens and millions of pounds different for where
(17:59):
they can actually developed the connext year? Do you look
it up for Romeo and Alfatari and a little bit
different line and have a little bit more focused to
see if you can make some more money off.
Speaker 3 (18:09):
That, you know, I try to keep an open mind
and I'm gonna stick to Alfa Romeo since you are
on that topic. But quite honestly, I am the same
way they're in in betting jail for me like I
won't touch them. And last week is a great example.
I said, you know what, I'm going to take one
of them out of betting jail, which was Joe over
Sergeant I. That was the one head to head I
(18:32):
did not hit in the race last week, and this
is this is the reason why. And I'm only I'm
the only person to blame for that.
Speaker 1 (18:40):
I just can't.
Speaker 3 (18:41):
I will keep an open mind though every week I
will look into it.
Speaker 1 (18:47):
But to your point, I don't.
Speaker 3 (18:49):
I can't just back inconsistency or inconsistent drivers. And yeah,
you brought up another good point, like when is it
a buy buy low situation? And I've said this many
times with my guys. Perez is a great example of
this while he's had his mid season shambles. Do you
really want to try to catch a falling knife? Even
(19:09):
though the odds are there and they look juicy and
it's a red bull car? Do you want to catch
a falling knife? Because every time that's just going to
ding your profits in the end. And I'm more I
want to think long term and I want to make
sure that I'm profitable long term, so.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
I got to be very careful.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
I would rather take a consistent odds and driver and
put more money and even lay than I would taking
like a you know, plus two hundred on an alpha
romea like botas to get top ten.
Speaker 1 (19:42):
Right, I just I can't do it. I just can't
get myself to do it.
Speaker 3 (19:46):
But I do try to find the opportunities because again,
books are a lot sharper with F one definitely hands
down in the past year. So you do have to
try to keep an open mind, but also keep that
in the back of your mind, mind of inconsistencies. You
got to just stay away from that.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
Yeah, the open mind, because I mean Mikhale knows I've
I've given him crap many many an episode about anytime
he's he's like, oh you know, hus, might you know
one lap pace and Mchael's it's very interesting.
Speaker 1 (20:19):
I'm not I'm not gonna like.
Speaker 4 (20:22):
He's done. Nico Hockenberg is great at one one pace.
He's he gets that car into the top three. Right.
I wish they gave a market, like do you think
Nico Holckenberg will make it into Q three of qualifying?
Like that will be a great market because now you
can make some money. Like then if you take him
head to head qualifying against Kevin Magnuson, Yeah, you can
(20:43):
make some money again, but like those markets are those
markets are there. So then you try to look, Okay,
if Nico Hockenberg starts here and someone who's got a
greater pace than Nico Hockenberg over a race distance, you
try to see, all right, now, who is plus money
after quality because they just had a bad qualifying Landon
Norris sometimes ends up in that position. He just did
(21:05):
that a couple of weeks ago, right, so that's where
you can make some money. Way, oh, look at Nico
Hockenberg to do this, but something out of the bad.
But what you're doing secretly is hoping that the bug
stone cats that you're eyeing someone else who just had
a bad run at qualifying cat a nice good plus
(21:26):
money number on him, and you take that that's happened
to Maxim staff and last year multiple times where he
qualified around p ten and they had him at plus
one twenty. I'm like, take him, Bet him as much
as possible because you know he's gonna win the race
no matter what people do.
Speaker 5 (21:41):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (21:41):
No, And just going back to the open mind comment,
like with the reason why I keep that open mind,
that goes back to I have a strict way of
approaching a weekend. Now, let's throw away sprint weekends for
out of the equation for a second.
Speaker 1 (21:56):
Those are challenging on its own.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
You only have one FP session, But like if you
have a traditional three FP sessions, I get to pull
in all the data. I get to pull in and
see like consistency. I can easily put up the quality
sim pace. I can see everything race pace, I do
sector times. So then if I see that discrepancy in
(22:18):
any way, I will then consider it. But for the
most part, when you approach a weekend, I just there's
times where I won't be able to do it.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
And yeah, like has I just rarely bet them.
Speaker 3 (22:31):
But you know, most people on my in my group,
they love to attack like hulkover Magnuson even at like
minus two fifty odds because they know it's just clear
Magnizon is not going to be there up there. So
and Alfatari here Actually recently, Aston Martin is a great
example of how that came back to bite us a
(22:54):
few times because we're like, WHOA, what happened? They dropped
off significantly. I had to put him in temporary betting jail,
as I would say, just because I was like, I'm
not going to try to catch the falling knife. Until
I see what they're doing and they're producing, I'm willing
to pay in the premium to know that, yes I can,
(23:14):
I will have that advantage.
Speaker 1 (23:16):
So it's challenging for sure.
Speaker 4 (23:19):
I just got to say this, right. I know, as
the Martin, everyone's looking at them as they dropped off
significantly throughout the season, but I don't look at it
that way. Here's how I look at it. I think
Acid Martin finally found the car that they needed and
they spent all their research and dev work on building
(23:45):
that solid base. Because even now the Mercedes still isn't
as strong as the Acid Martin. There's no they have
a better driver parent, but they are not stronger than
Acid Martin. Just on looking at it on paper and
looking at it in sim quality and race day simulations. Right,
What's happened here is that they are working at next
(24:09):
year's car, and I know coming out from next year
that they will be better than what they were at
the end, and I think that's what they wanted. That's
where Laurencetrow, That's where Lancetrow, That's where Fernande Lando and
Mike Crack were looking at the call like, let's build
a phenomenal base that can fight in the top six
(24:29):
and we will move on from there because we know
that Laurenstrow came out very very eloquently and just sternly saying, hey,
we want to be a championship winning team. Now everyone
in the community is like, you guys, and you you
guys just got penalized for being the pink Mercedes. You
(24:49):
really think to be a championship team? Just you rebranded
as Aston Martin. Wow, we know as Martin was there
sixty years ago in F one, but are you really
thinking gonna be championship? And then they backed up that
statement this year like, oh okay, all right, they are
coming out swinging. So I think what we're gonna look
(25:10):
at as Martin is long term picture and not short yeah,
and upgrades. So when you look at it that way, yeah,
So it's when you look at it with that perspective,
they have not regressed. What they have is just a
little bit drop in performance. To focus on the cars
next year and keep building off of that because the
(25:30):
more they can focus on next year's car, the stronger
they will be. Now we already know that Red Bull
did not take their wind tunnel penalty that they got
from twenty twenty two this year that will be moved
on to the RB twenty car. So we're going to
see a little bit drop off and performance from Red
Bull coming out of next year. Already, that's that's gonna
be a given, right, So maybe McLaren and ASA Martin
(25:54):
and if Ferrari can get their winter season and winter
testing right, that will be a big swing coming out.
And that's the way that I look at as smart
and look at these teams coming up. Mercedes, to me,
I still feel like they have a long way to go.
They that that car is so dragging a straight line, right,
And as we talk about Vegas in the coming minutes here,
(26:16):
I don't trust Mercedes for the next two races as
we get to depend ultimate race, yeah, Vegas.
Speaker 1 (26:22):
Yeah, I kind of agree. They're on Mercedes.
Speaker 3 (26:25):
They definitely had taken a step back, definitely a draggy car.
I mean, it's just been a weird project, wild project,
I guess you can say, from the W thirteen to
the fourteen, and they even admitted it. They know that
there's issues and you can hear it in the tones
of the drivers at times on weekends like they have to.
They're setting up the car just for the race, and
(26:47):
they can't even qualify high enough at times, so that's
just a big tell for them. And I agree, I
don't know. I don't expect them to do well here. Listen,
this straight is long. It is going to be fair
very long. So they've never had that straight line speed.
I just can't see how they're going to be challenging
(27:07):
in that. And there's not a lot of turns right,
so I can't see how they're gonna That's where they
take advantage in all the races in the past, is
where they're like a little bit low and mid speed
turns and corners, that's where they attack. Unfortunately, they're just
they've been struggling and it did not look good last
week for sure, But yeah.
Speaker 5 (27:29):
I know what did not. Maybe that's a part of
the reason why mister Toto Wolf is not allowing his
employees to partake in any of the Las Vegas festivities
this week. I don't know if there's a there's a
correlation there. If had they been front runners, they'd be like, yeah,
you guys can hit the hit the craft, get to work,
feeling show something good. Right, it is all yes, it
is all business, all business for the Mercedes this week,
(27:51):
so shaddy from that perspective. Now we turn it forward
here to the two race week and so many different
storylines to talk about, whether how the tires we'll look against,
you know, in a backdrop where we might have sub
fifty degree fahrenheit temperatures in a night race in Las Vegas,
and the FIA openly admitting they were not really considering
the weather this time of year when they decided to
(28:14):
schedule the race and bring F one back to Las Vegas.
From a just a general sense, you're early in the
race week here with the odds, Now, who were you
gravitating towards? And I really believing, like should we set
up for success coming into the weekend.
Speaker 3 (28:27):
I mean, I can't stop gravitating to Ferrari as much
as they pain painfully are sometimes most of the time.
You saw it last week with Leclair or even before
formation lap which actually screwed up one of my bets.
I'm gravitating towards that. And you know one odd that
really just struck out to me was, you know, they
(28:49):
got Ferrari as an underdog to McLaren's meaning you know,
one or the other drivers got to just pass the
other McLaren driver. So for anyone that may not know that,
So Ferrari over McLaren, Like, there's odds on that they're
superior on straights, right, they should be the ones that
are one of the fastest on the straits. I think
(29:11):
that you cannot overlook Ferrari, and the odds are are
reflecting it too. The odds are getting pretty low on
what Leclaire's I think he's what three hundred now to
win the race, I think or something like that.
Speaker 1 (29:24):
I'm checking right now. I actually know he's sixteen hundred.
He's forty fourteen to one.
Speaker 3 (29:31):
He was qualifying that I was looking at earlier, but
it was qualifying his qualifying odds were low, and.
Speaker 4 (29:38):
He's yeah, he's plus ful fifty yeah draftings for a yeah,
so for a Foster qualifier and there we like.
Speaker 5 (29:48):
To say, yeah.
Speaker 1 (29:48):
I mean it's you know how it is with Ferrari.
Speaker 3 (29:51):
I mean we always see it every weekend, right, Ferrari
gets maybe the top qualifying spot and then we just
see Max win it because they're so good with their tires.
Speaker 1 (29:59):
Right.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
But you know, if you're looking at something like that.
But if hey, listen, it's Vegas. If you want to
have a little fun, why not shoot for the stars.
If you really want to throw a little little change here,
I mean, don't obviously do huge units. You might be
able to find something with like fastest qualify and win
the race with the signs. Even so, here's the thing
(30:20):
with this weekend. We don't know what to expect. No
one knows what to expect. They I think they overreacted
a little bit to the weather. They were calling it
like it was supposed to be five degrees celsius in
forty one degrees fahrenheit for our US guys. Now now
we're seeing it's going to be like fifteen degrees. And
(30:40):
you guys are local, so you guys can tell me
it doesn't seem as bad as they made it to be. However,
with the long straights, it is still cold. Breaking is
going to be an issue. Drivers are going to go
off track wherever they have the off track limits are at,
so you're gonna see mistakes. It wouldn't be me if
(31:01):
someone binds it and you know, you see that one
driver in the top ten.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Right.
Speaker 3 (31:06):
You don't know what to expect, but it's going to
be very interesting. Going back to McHale and what he's
saying earlier in the segment, which is let's look at
the car's performance and let's just let's base ourselves. There
a Williams right great on with top speed, you know
they're going to do well. So other odds you can
(31:27):
you can tackle. There's Williams over Alfatari. They're at even
odds against each other. So album might be the best
midfield driver if that's what I'm expecting, so he could
be top ten. The books are also adjusting to that,
So that's kind of where I'm looking. As far as
like we've talked about Mercedes, I'm not going to be
(31:48):
really putting my backing on them yet. I want to
see what they do in practices and then yeah, McLaren
in Red Bull, I expect that they might be competitive,
but McLaren is going to have some issues with top
end speed as well.
Speaker 4 (32:01):
So so here's I bet that I am loving right now,
and that is Carlo Sign's fastest qualer of plus six fifty.
But I'm also looking at Lando Norris at nine to one.
Now here's the reason why I'm looking at these two
over Max or anyone rebel. Rebel have at Achilles heel
(32:24):
that no one's really picked out, and that is that
they can never get their tires right like they get
Maxing whip it up at the end of qualifying, but
it takes them forever to get those tires turned on.
Given the lower temperatures here, I believe that Ferrari can
come out swinging and snatch that up early and just
(32:48):
hinder Max enough towards the end of qualifying to do that.
Or Lando Norris can come in because when I was
looking at the simulations of the top speed of the
cars down the straight, McClaren have been top, with Ferrari
second third, red Bull fourth. This is going to be
hard to believe being Williams at the top speed. So
(33:14):
how do you how do you see that bat right there?
Either Landos or call a science call signs plus six
fifty lands at nine to one for the fastest quality.
Speaker 3 (33:24):
I mean, right there, you called that's That's what I'm
looking for.
Speaker 1 (33:28):
Right there is that edge you just called it?
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Red Bull has I don't want to say a problem,
but I want to say certain discrepancies with their tires
right with warming up, and that's going to be a
challenge for everyone, but it seems like it's more so
with Red Bull and we we have seen that a
few times where they've struggled to nail it on that qualifying.
(33:51):
And you don't have to sell me on Lando Norris.
I mean that guy is one of my favorite drivers
on the grid. I actually do dig it and actually
one of my books, I can get it eleven to
one as fast as qualifiers, so I can. You know
what I said, I wanted to do some long shots
and I thought, maybe let me wait until I get
in the conversation with you guys. I'm almost tempted to
(34:12):
throw a little bit down on that just because we
aren't we expecting a little chaos and why not landover right?
Speaker 1 (34:20):
Good driver?
Speaker 4 (34:23):
I am. I'm going to be sprinkling a little bit
on Carlos and Lando because I think they are so close.
And the book or DraftKings, Yeah, has Charles Leclair at
plus full fifty over Carlo Science.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Now.
Speaker 4 (34:36):
The reason why I'm not looking at Charles Leclair is
because Charles has had this sort of mentality where he
needs to prove that he's championship worthy and when he
has that, and the pressure is on at times this
season he could get it on and at times he
could not. So he's given me that inconsistency there, whereas
(34:58):
Carlo Science has been very very consistent where he's like,
I know what I got to do, Leave me be,
And you want to know what a great example of
that is, Let's go back to Singapore where he started
bringing Landon Norris into the DRS and the teams like
what Landon Norris and DRS like, I know I need
him there to stop anyone's going to come get me.
You know, went on to win the race. So I
(35:20):
don't trust Charles declared to be the fastest qualifier. I
trust Carlos signs a little bit more, but signs that
Norris pretty evenly paced on one lap pace. I just
have the McClaren edging them a little bit more, just
because that top end on the McLaren should be down
that straight as you get to the strip straight and
as well as you get to the MSG sphere. I
(35:40):
think McLaren just going to be right on top of that.
Speaker 3 (35:43):
So I got a question for you, how much how much?
How much do you think Leclaire? Like what do you
think Leclaire is a great driver? Not a good driver
a great driver.
Speaker 4 (36:00):
Uh, I'll let me ask you this back and I'll
I'll be able to give it. Who would you consider
to be a great driver That way, I know your benchmark.
Speaker 3 (36:09):
Okay, I'm gonna say, I mean, obviously great driver. Let's
put Tier one. It's going to be a Lewis Hamilton
and Alonso Max for stap In.
Speaker 4 (36:23):
Okay, So I don't think Leclaire is a great driver.
Here's why I know that. The last time Ferrari have
been in this position was when Michael Schumacher came to
the team and he's like, we're going to rebuild the
entire team's morale and rebuild this car. And it took
(36:45):
him almost two years to do that before we started
winning the championship with before it got passed on to
Rubens Barrichello, Kimmi Ryking in for When Fernando gave the team,
it was not good. Ferrari was deemed this team that
is so elite that it's great drive for Ferrari. But
that's where your career went to die. In the last
(37:07):
couple of years, like we've seen performance drop off. This
is the first time we've had the youngest driver pairing
with Charles Leclair and Carlo Science. So in terms of
great driver, Charles Leclair needs to bring something to the
team where it can be like, we need to fix
this right. And when you say, louse something that's a
great driver he pointed out to Mercedes, until it's wolf like, hey,
(37:29):
this car is undriveable with this concept. It's the whole
reason why they had to rush to get that new concept,
the new floor out was because lose something like I
can pinpoint to you exactly what this car is not
doing compared to our competitors. I don't think Charles Leclair
has a mentality and can set up that car and
be like the team is wrong here, Like in certain
(37:51):
times it can be your strategy is wrong. You're there,
But I mean Carlo Science says that in the car
that's because they don't trust the Ferrari strategists. But in
terms of the team, where they can be leaders to
the team and not the team principal and Frederick Stoor
leading the team, that's something different. That's where I think
comes a great leader and a great driver where and
(38:14):
this is going to be a controversial of them, I say,
I don't think Maxive Stappin is a great driver. I
think he's a very good driver. Just Red Bull hack
he had.
Speaker 1 (38:27):
I love these takes, by the way, I'm sorry, I
love it, Okay.
Speaker 5 (38:31):
Go on.
Speaker 4 (38:31):
Maxis Stappins is a very aggressive driver. He is not
a great driver. Like when the pressure comes down, Max
can only whip it in because the car is doing that.
Put him in the AffA Tory and let's see what
he does. Put him in the Ferrari, Let's see what
he does. You cannot move him to different teams, right.
Everyone knows that the greatest driver of all time is
(38:54):
one popular Fangio, and he won multiple championships with different teams.
In fact, he did it in different cars as well.
There were times where he jumped into his teammates car
that still won the race. Right. I don't think you
can do that with Max vs. Stappin. Loui Samplon is
also a great driver. But again keep this in mind.
All the championships that he's won has been with a
(39:14):
Mercedes engine in the back of the car, so he
knows Mercedes really well. If you were to put Louis
Amilson in a Ferrari or an AVATARO or has can
he still be that great driver. I have so many
questions for the modern day drivers that don't have for
previous drivers like Fernando or Alonso, because he drove it
multiple different teams, won championships. Maybe it's just one team,
(39:37):
but he was able to prove his wordth in different teams.
Like look at him right now at the age of
forty one, forty two years old. Look at where he's qualifying,
look at the fights that he's saying, and look at
his racecraft. That's a that's that's a great driver. Can
Max Vstappen retire, come back at the age of forty
(39:58):
two and do that? I don't think so. Maxis Stepan
is a good driver. He's got the youngness, the aggressiveness
right now, well, I think that will fade and we
will see that happen the next couple of years.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
I love this these takes, and I've been one that's
been very highly critical of Charles Leclair going back a while,
and I've always been saying Signs should be gifted the
opportunity to be the number one driver over Leclair, and
I've been bashed about it. I don't care what people
think about it, but I just I think he's like
(40:34):
you said, he's very inconsistent. He has his moments where
he does flash of you know, I can be good,
I can be great, but that's any driver on the grid.
Speaker 1 (40:43):
Let's just be real.
Speaker 3 (40:46):
So kind of going back to the bet, you were
just calling out, what was the signs over Leclair? What
four to one? I think it was, Uh, whatever it is.
I think that is something I will definitely be eyeing
this weekend. Is I like to do those teammates head
to head because same car teammates like this, you almost
(41:08):
have to benchmark them at the same level. So if
you're gonna tell me signs is four to one to
Leclaire and they're about the same performance level, that's that's value.
At the same time, I know some of my guys
on my crew will be laughing at me, but it's true.
I just I just believe that Leclair has and especially
(41:30):
on a track like this weekend, it would not surprise
me if you've bend it, if he messed up on
a turn, if he does something wrong, because that's what
he does, that's been his mo. So that was the
reason why I brought up that question, just because I'm
interested to see other perspective, personalities perspectives on Leclaire.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
So yeah, no doubt, and I've even seen money has
come into on signs and something that mchai and I
are talking about this episode, especially for the for us
being based in Las Vegas. This is like finally the
one week where we got a nice robust menu of
different options and so I see signs even money against
Leclaire in the actual race matchup. So I mean the
(42:11):
books here have certainly adjusted as much as as much
as they might not have been offering a lot of
things throughout the year, and so that's what makes it
really fascinating too. It just kind of from the natural
betting perspective, and so this was awesome though. Just to
get the kind of the insights the deeper dive here
from shatty Sewash joining us on the Vson F one
Betting podcastle check out the F one Money Gang podcast
(42:31):
and give Shaddy a follow at F one Kapper Again,
shatty Sewash joining us here on the VS and Formula
one Betting podcast. We will take a quick break our
final segment coming up next we get McHale's best bets
for the race. I've got a couple I'm eyeing here
books are giving us some good price, McHale. We'll talk
about it next right after this.
Speaker 2 (43:04):
Welcome to Vson's F one Vetting Podcast, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need. You're your hosts F one
technical analyst Mikaale, Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson.
Speaker 5 (43:16):
All Right, thanks again to Shaddy for joining us. Just
a really insightful and formative conversation. Looking forward to having
him back on the podcast at some point. I have
you been to join this, Please make sure pause for
a second if you don't mind leaving us a review,
give us a little five star rating. I had a
really nice, helpful review from Majeski two four four eight,
saying more insight longer episodes to be my suggestion as
(43:38):
we get close to the end of the year. Also
said he does like both of us, mchael, so that's good.
So we're trying to pay that off. Here we have
a nice long, nearly hour long episode for you here
as we go into the final two races of the season,
this one will be nearly an hour or so, but
it is that time. Mikayl. Let's get into the best
bets I've got two I'm eyeing want to tea up
first though, amidst the all this speed talk and how
(44:00):
these tires will hold up, amidst a brand new track
with no data in the past year in Las Vegas.
Where are you starting your card aths for this weekend?
Speaker 4 (44:08):
So as I said that Shaddley carl of Signs Landon
is going to sprinkle a little bit over there for
fastest qualifier, So at plus six fifty for Carla Signs
Fastest Qualify and Landon Norris ninety one. The next that
I'm looking are the top ten. I have Alex Alder
alban at minus one fifty and Daniel Ricardo at plus
two thirty. I think the Red Bull here and the
(44:30):
Hound of Power units are going to do pretty well
here just because of where we're at and the top speed.
I think the Red Bull and the Hound of Power
unit can hold much to top speed more than any
of the other teams that are there. So Daniel Ricardo
plus two thirty, Alex Album minus one fifty the next
will do top six, Fernando Alonso in the Ascent at
(44:51):
plus one fifteen and Oscar Pia Street at plus one ten,
and then my podium finished Sergio Paris at plus one forty.
I need to point this out and then get a
challenge to point this out. With that shadow before Lewis Hamilton,
his odds have been shifted. I got to speak with
(45:12):
Spurtsberg director of operations, Johnny Yovello last episode, and I
was talking to him about Louis Hamilton, saying that I
think those odds aren't right. They have corrected that. Charles
Leclaric got pushed up to plus one forty. Lewis Hamilton
bought down longer shot at plus one seventy five. His
(45:32):
odds before were plus one ten ahead of Sergio Paris,
and now we are seeing some corrections made. Same goes
with George Russell. Georgeorge, who was around plus four fifty
now at plus five point fifty on equal grounding against
Oscar pr straight. So there are some line changes already
(45:54):
as we head into the Vegas Grand Prix just about
the week apart.
Speaker 5 (45:59):
Fascinating. I have to think, with your conversation with our
friend Johnny Vello at DraftKings, maybe you had some sort
of influence there.
Speaker 4 (46:07):
I was, I was Johnny after I was begging John like, hey,
please take another look at Lose. I don't think those
odds are right. I think that one needs to be
a longer shot. Like the Mercedes isn't good top and
straight line speed. Mercedes does not do good in low
down folk circuits. That is their biggest achilles he the
(46:27):
drag on that car is just too much to place
a one ten bet on Loose Hamilton.
Speaker 5 (46:33):
It's almost like you feel like we're maybe drawing dead
on our Hamilton winner. Without Max re staff and Drivers'
Championship wader MChE are you ready to go?
Speaker 4 (46:43):
I think I think that Sergia Prayers will feel the pressure,
feel the heat and crash out, especially as I was
saying at the circuit where ten five and round turn fourteen,
when you get into that straight I think Sergia Prayers
is going to make some errors this if he is
frushed by Fernando Alonso again, he might stip up make
(47:04):
some errors that could cost him the race.
Speaker 5 (47:07):
Well, speaking too of line moves and how numbers have
really been have been changing, especially over the last week
week and a half or so. The other really nice
impact of having this race in Las Vegas, McHale is
that we have so many different books now that are
offering odds, whether that is across country, East coast books,
(47:27):
older books like in Vegas, where we're at a lot
of different opportunities. So for example, Circa here in Las
Vegas we have a partnership with them at Visen they
have offered odds and for the race, and we haven't
had odds really all season on f one from Circa,
but really advantageous odds. I can get and this is
my favorite bet of the weekend, McHale, I can get
Lando Norris podium finish at minus one forty five at Circa.
Speaker 4 (47:50):
OO podium finished on DK is minus one ninety. Great
odds right there, and there's some nice money take down there.
Speaker 5 (47:58):
I know, I know, Michaell, I know how to get
your fired up. We're getting a forty five second this cup.
And looking shop around, there are other books where I
see Lando and the minus one fifty range, So there
are a lot more books. Because this has been such
a hyped up, as you were talking about mchail earlier
in the episode, such a hyped up race TV wise,
this has been just sort of jammed down everybody's throats
for the for the last couple of weeks, trying to
(48:19):
get as many people involved to watch. As a result,
you will see I would think mchail more favorable betting
odds for the consumer as opposed to some of these
races where we've really just been price gouged by a
lot of the drivers. So I love Norris. Anything sub
one fifty to finish on the podium, that is my
favorite bet as well. And I am actually tailing you.
(48:39):
I was already on this driver anyway, but I'm talking
to Chatty and talking to you. The Alex alban points
finish where I can find him also at circa minus
one forty five, two bets that I really like. Again,
we're talking about drivers in cars who SHO should set
up favorably. You talk about the straight line speed combined
with recent form for both drivers. It is certainly a
(49:01):
situation I'm wanting to get behind each of those guys.
I certainly like Norris a little bit more. You know
in some of the books in Vegas, McHale, I mean
for Stappens down to like minus two twenty to win
the race. So a lot of long shot money coming
in just in the race winter market in general.
Speaker 4 (49:17):
Yes, and I think that's due to the fact that
everyone thinks that Max does not need to race anymore.
Now I know Max a little bit from Wemsing, and
he has no intention of slowing down for people, so
he will just be like a rocket chip. So I
(49:38):
don't expect that number to stay there because a DK,
he's minus six fifty. If you find Max Vsappen at
a minus two dollars price or a minus three dollars
price jump on that number, you will not get those
odds again.
Speaker 5 (49:54):
Yeah, and I think I'm seeing minus four hundred at
DK right now understaping. It's still way more expensive than
what you're paying at some of the other shops around
the country. So it'll be one of those things. It
does vary by jurisdiction, by state where you're in. For example,
CIRCA those odds are available. I believe it's Nevada, Colorado, Illinois.
So again that's a smaller part of our audience. But
(50:15):
there are other books out there too that we don't
have access to that have much more favorable odds. So
I want to make sure we mention that, Mikail, because
this is the one race, so we're getting that set
this year.
Speaker 4 (50:24):
Yep, here's a long shot that I am on Sergio
Paris at twenty to one to win the race. He
is why Sergia Prais has got a good standing when
he comes to street races. I believe there's only two
street races that he's lost. I think he's doing two
this season and the other two winners Max Forstapman hold
out there and Carlos Signs. Given the odds, looking there,
(50:45):
at those numbers, right, Sergia Prais looks to have a
better chance. But again I don't trust Sedjia prayers given
the fact that he's under immense pressure for his seats. Yes,
it's confirmed for next year, but it's not confirmed fully
for next year. He just confirmed that he will start
it in Red Bull next year. Doesn't mean that he
will finish in Red Bull next year.
Speaker 5 (51:06):
That is a big storyline to follow. It's something we've
been talking about. It feels like McHale the better half
of a month or two as far as deeper bets
down in the midfield or any of the we're talking
about the longer shots here. Anything else you're looking to
make your car that might not be as sexy as
these these podium top six finishes.
Speaker 4 (51:27):
No, as we are getting closer to the end of
the twenty twenty three season, I'm looking at teams and
drivers that I trust now, so I don't mind laying
the minus money, but I'm going to be looking at
arts closer to the even even money more in the
minus money now, like as I said, Oskar Piastre plus
one ten closer to even money, Fernando Orlando plus one
(51:48):
fifteen closer to even money. The only ones that is
a little bit longer shot is Daniel Ricardo plus two
thirty and any of my fastest qualifier bets.
Speaker 5 (51:58):
We've seen with all those drivers you talked about, though,
even ones that are not in not in teams you
would consider to be superstar groups, you know, like an Alphatawi.
In the case of Daniel Ricardo, you can at least
point to recent form being really really positive as a
way to get behind those individual bets. So for me,
I'll give out my two Lando Norris podium finished minus
one forty five, and I will say market wide available
(52:23):
at minus one fifty. But I can find some minus
one forty five's out there on the points finished for
Alex Albon in the Williams. I'm tailing you there Michale,
those are my two plays. Your your card is well,
nice and robust here, big guy, ready to go. I'm
excited for this weekend. I know you are as well
as someone who's already been out there, been on the
grounds for the majority of this week leading up to
(52:44):
the race.
Speaker 4 (52:45):
Yes, sir, that I've got two more bets then I
normally put in to am who try to do five
bets and on a weekend. But I have no regrets
with any of the bets that I'm doing.
Speaker 5 (52:56):
No regrets. That is a great that's a great theme
and way to describe our our overall race philosophy heading
into the Las Vegas Grand Prix. All right, that does
it for us. We hope you enjoyed this mega episode.
We'll come back early next week before Thanksgiving recap at all,
because then we go to our final race weekend of
this twenty twenty three Formula One season. So still a
(53:17):
lot for us to get through, even though the championship
has already been decided. So for McHale, I'm ben we
will catch you next time. Enjoy this week weekend. It
is going to be a lot of fun and then
so we'll come back early next week's out and see
how it all breaks down when you tune in. Next
to us right here feasts in Formula one Betting Podcast.
See you next week, Best to pluck, all you
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