November 23, 2023 • 23 mins
In this gripping episode, we gear up for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix with a keen eye on the intense battle for 6th place in the constructors' championship. Join us as we analyze the thrilling prospects of Charles Leclerc securing a pole position, backed by high probabilities, while also examining Red Bull's strong chances of claiming a podium finish. Get ready for an exhilarating F1 betting preview that delves into the intricate dynamics of the upcoming race! 🏁🎙️🏎️ #AbuDhabiGP #F1BettingPreview #Leclerc #RedBull #PodcastDiscussion
Subscribe!: https://www.vsin.com/podcast/vsin-f1-betting-podcast/
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
No investigation necessary. Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast.
A light sound away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michael, right, find the chef A ship can already.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Do what you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michale
Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson. Well, we finally made it,
Michail Miranda. It is the final race, race number twenty
two of this twenty twenty three F one season. We're
back on the Vson F one Betting Podcast. One final
Race prevw to get to here we go, Michale. I
hope the card is robust. I don't know how much
(00:37):
Howard Busted will be because we're outside of a couple
of individual storylines here. This this season has been done
in Dustin, but I'll be curious to see how we
see a couple of recently improved teams performed, starting with Ferrari.
I don't know where you want to start, McHale, but
I've got my on the Ferrari this week. After a
very good performance by both Charlotclair and Carlos Signs in
Las Vegas. I'm curious where you're at on the Ferrari
(01:00):
because I'm in full play on mode there on the
Ferrari heading into this week.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
I agree with you. Thank Ferrari have got a good chance,
especially for a double top six at the pace that
they have and the recent form that Ferrari has been shown.
I think it's you will look good if you're looking
at Ferrari now. It just comes how you want to
look at Ferrari. And I have my how qualifying and
(01:29):
maybe a double top six, but as of right now
it's up in the air. But Ferrari is showing very
very good form right now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Charlie Claire plus three fifty fastest qualifier, you have Carlos
signs nine to one to finish on Paul. I really
wish I had been quick to the trigger when I
saw the odds posted on the Team Props mkil. There
were I believe it was minus one fifty when DraftKings
posted that on the double top six for Ferrari. That's
out now to minus one ninety. I still actually don't
(01:59):
hate that bet as much as you and I are
usually not in the business of laying big over minus
one fifty minus prices. I'm certainly inclined to believe. We
talked about it on the recap episode from Vegas, just
the mindset and general headspace Charlotte Clair is in. It
seems like finally, albeit a little bit too late in
the year, but finally Ferrari have figured out their general
(02:21):
racing strategy and the pace of the cars you talk
about has been on question now for some time. So
that's or I would want to go first. Are you
how confident would you be that Ferrari end up finishing
a head of Mercedes. That's the fight right now. Four
points separate those two for number two in the Constructors.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
I wouldn't be too surprised. But then again, it comes
down to Charles and Callers now not playing individual game,
but the team game as well as Mercedes. Now it
comes down to you have to play the team gay.
If there is one Ferrari behind two Mercedes in between,
if there's a Ferrari sandwich, George and Lou have to
(03:00):
work together, right whoever's ahead needs to keep the dors,
needs to keep the exact pace that they have because
the moment they drop them pace, whoever is behind in
the sandwich won't pounds and won't let them breathe a
little bit, right, So the team game is vital vital.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Here four point separation, Mercedes lead by four. The other interesting,
another interesting race I want to get your take on, mkill,
is in the drivers' championship standings, where you've got Carlo
signs for Into Alonso each tied for fourth, two hundred points,
Lando Norris five back, Charlotte Clair twelve back and quickly charging.
(03:42):
How would you power rate those four heading into this week, mckill.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
So when I look at it that way, I think
that the Astons are going to have some good double
top ten finish as what I'm looking at again, Lancetroll
showed great pace at Vegas. I think that's going to
carry forward, Yeah, into Yas Marina second as well Fernando.
We know what Fernande can do in that car. So
(04:07):
I have no doubt that you could see a double
top ten. Now I'm not looking at a high double
top ten, right, You're looking anywhere between tenth and around
seventh as well. I will see both cars finishing, just
because I see the Rebels up there, Mercedes up there
and Ferrari up there, and even McClaren above the As
(04:29):
and Martin as of right now, Well.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
We play the same game. Whenever we talk about those
teams in the midfield for double top tens, Aston Martin
plus one thirty five, you're essentially betting on faith in
Aston Martin over faith in Alpine. Who have been that
team who's been able to steal those places? Well, inconsistently right,
It's happened a lot throughout the season Alpen plus two
fifty on the double top ten. So where do you
(04:52):
stand on the Ocon ghastly combo here after a week
in Vegas? We talked about it in the recap episode.
Got off to them great start for Ghasy race went
horribly and not a great start for Ocon and qualifying
but had an unbelievable drive ends up finishing in the
top four.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
See I'm looking at per guess just because I know
what the Alpines can do now towards the end of
the season, I like the minus one ten. The only
issue is I want to see what the weekend shows me.
Right when it comes to Alpine, if you bet on
them early, at least in my case, if I take
(05:27):
the bet on them early, they don't do well at
the race. But if I wait, I might pay a
little bit more tax on the price, but it will
be well worth the bigcause I'm seeing I'm getting a
bit more data on the cars and the drivers and
how they ferried around the track.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Sure, and you look at the three drivers right now
who are projected to finish in that edge of the
points race Lancetrow up here, Gas, Yes, about ocon. They're
all minus one ten as the tenth drivers on the
odds board right now to finish in the point. So
it's really just to take your pick a situation. And
it's funny. As much as I've been super anti Lance
(06:03):
Stroll all year, this is it's been a broken record.
I know you were on Stroll McHale back in Canada
right in Montreal, but outside that, like I've just been
looking to fade him at every juncture. You have to
give the guy credit though, for going from p nineteen
to five in the last race. You talk about how
the upgrades it seems like have finally hit for Aston Martin,
(06:23):
maybe a bit later than expected after their late season adjustments.
So between the three, like I don't know, I kind
of look at Stroll and say, since that's obviously the
focal driver between the two instead of as much as
the price right, plus one thirty five for double top
ten is enticing because it's plus money. What you're really
betting on is Stroll to finish in the point, So
(06:45):
take away maybe the you know, the opportunity or the
chances you get a crash here and something happens to Alonso.
We've seen that happen so far this year. I believe
Alonzo was a casualty last year in this race when
he was at his old team Alpin. So I had
almost rather just if I like Aston Martin, I'd just
rather make a make a standard bet on Stroll minus
one ten points finish and you take away some of
(07:05):
the other variables out there. You agree with that logic.
Does that make sense?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
It does make sense. But I'm in the opposite of you,
just because I think that Stroll but there's nothing to
fight for now, so you can you can just relax.
Right once the driver are in this mindset of like,
there's no more need to attack as much, right, I
think they perform much better. And now that we're here,
(07:31):
I think Stroll is going to have some fun. I
think for now it's going to have some fun. And
because of that, because the driver's mindset's a little bit
more easied up. I'm going to look at the double
top ten andl plus one thirty five over your minus
one tent. Right, we both have the same thing, right,
We're both betting on Stroll to do well here. But
I think Stroll's going to carry that high P five
(07:52):
momentum because it was a great recovery drive, right, and
we now we know that Stroll can do good in
a world balanced car with the upgrades now on to
work with that of mine. Right, I'm holding him a
little bit high in regard as we're going into Apathaby
now this way in the middle of the season, I
would not do so, but because at the end of
(08:13):
the season and everything is started to die down a
little bit, I will take him. I'll give him a
little bit of the benefit of the.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Down max for Staping is your race favorite in case
you were unaware living under a rock the last six
months minus three ninety. I'm seeing him right now to
run the weight to win the race. And I'm glad
you brought up the whole motivation standpoint, because I think
that's a big question a lot of betters will have
this week. You have for staffing coming in. He's actually
won this race the season finale three straight years. Even
(08:41):
in a season like last year where the championship had
already been wrapped up, he still went out and won.
So for Stapping is sort of in his own little bubble, right,
He's a guy doesn't matter how early the championship has
been clinched. He's the ultimate competitor. He'll still want to
go out and win the race when it comes. No
more to the midfield and where you see a lot
of the betting variants happening, where there could be the
(09:02):
perceived value. How do you see these sorts of races?
McHale just from the standpoint of not only motivation, but
just maybe teams go a little bit more aggressive, Maybe
they try some new things that they wouldn't have been
so inclined to do. If we were saying at race
nine in the year, what have you seen just since
you filed this longer than I have over the last
five ten years, of how teams that are out of
(09:23):
it tend to approach the final race.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
So that's the thing. Teams aren't as of it as
you said. Mercedes and Ferrari fights in McLaren Aston Martin fighting,
and we also have Williams and Alpha Toro fighting because
theyres seven points between them, right, and that doesn't go
too far because there's about a five point different from
Alfa Romeo, right, So that's all just for P six,
(09:50):
So there are still battles going on. But I just
don't think that Alfa Romeo get enough pace in the car.
Alpha TOI seem to have this on and off day,
so I hope they can get it on. Williams here
are going to be fighting. Alex Alban needs to deliver
a top ten finish and now we're looking at Alex
Album plus one seventy five. I'm going to have him
(10:13):
in my betting slip just because I know that Williams
need to get someone in the points here, and I
don't trust Sergeant because he's at nine to one just
for a points finish. Sergeant just he couldn't deliver in
Vegas and he could deliver in qualifying, So I think
we might see something similar where they do really well
in qualifying and not to get in the race. But
(10:35):
Alex Album here because he's a senior driver, is more
experienced and just absolutely increases racecraft here at Williams. They
need him to finish the points above both the alphatris,
so there's gonna be a little bit moressure on Alex
album he needs to deliver. So my betting slip is
going to have Alex albin as a top ten Rebel
double podium at plus one five as the Martin double
(10:57):
top ten plus one thirty five. Charles Leclaire is the
first qualified because again he's got that pace in the
car at plus three fifty. I'm also taking a look
at a long shot on Charles Leclair for a race
winner at fourteen to one, just because I know that
Rebel no longer need to play the team game year,
so they might let the drivers race. In doing so,
(11:19):
they might just give a little bit of a sliver
of hope to Ferrari and Charles needs to switch it
on right. He needs to get this. So a little
sprinkle at fourteen to one for Charles like pizza money,
maybe about ten dollars on this one, just because.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
I know if there's one thing, if there's one thing
you love, Michailee, you've been enticed all year by the
ten to fourteen to one long shots to win the race.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
So sometimes you've got to take a little bit of shot,
especially now at the not a dependent worth the actual
ultimate race of the season.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Shoot your shot, man, Hey, I like it will what
we'll do too. I want to get your take just
on on this track as a whole, since this has
been a tract that I think a lot of casual
race fans have seen a lot more of than your
standard track just because it's always the final race of
the year in not every season, but we've had a
lot of races where there's been so much at stake
and so a lot more eyeballs I hear on this range.
So race breakdown here with the track, Mikhail, as we
(12:18):
were talking about Agrid, that has gotten a lot of
eyeballs just from your general casual F one viewer and
better over the year. Since it is the final race
of the season. What have you noticed that has worked
well what hasn't for specific teams? In your race breakdown
here of the track.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So Mercedes going to talk about them very very draggy car.
So anytime there is times where they be at the
top speed, they don't seem to get it right. Ferrari,
anyone that's got a Ferrari engine seem to deliver really
good one lap pace you're in qualifying. We've seen that
with Ferrari themselves and the works team. We've seen that
(12:55):
with Has, with Niko Howkinba, We've had time seen it
from bost Us and Joe, and we've even seen it
right from everyone on the grid. It's just their one
lap pace to Ferrari is just phenomenal. Alpha Tori Alpine,
Alfa Romeo irrelevant at times just because there's too much
(13:16):
of the battle going on. Logan starts don't suddenly to
prove himself because he doesn't have a seat for next
year confirmed. But I think after Vegas preview he has
shown great development over the past year and I think
they may they'll retain him for the seat next year.
McLaren great Tennar round. They just have to work on
(13:37):
trying to figure out what works for the car. Just
because they bought upgrades and the car has now been
in the concept that they want, it does not mean
that they understand the car. They have ways to go
and to find the right balance at each and every track.
The sprint race throws everything off for all teams, right.
We've seen this in Brazil with Mercedes where they just
(13:58):
got everything horribly horribly wrong and one able to recover right,
red Bull dominant. That's it. There's nothing else you can say.
They've just been able to create a car that's just
fantastic all round. Right. Sojio Paris needs to work a
little bit on his qualifying position as well as his
(14:21):
race finished position, because again, when we saw the fight
in Vegas last week, it just showed that how all
prepared Sergio Paris is when it comes to having to
fight the battles, right, he needs to be able to
place their car in the perfect position. Now, this comes
with over time, as we saw with Fernando in Brazil
(14:41):
when he was able to let Sergio Paris through on
the lap and then fight it back and take Peak three.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Right.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So Bearers needs to get a little bit more race
craft in him. He needs to be able to get
a little bit more raci awareness as well. I think
that's my breakdown for the entire season so far, and.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
It brings up to me, what is maybe the bet
of the week to make from a over plus one
fifty per cent point right now? Because as much as
we are really high in landon Norris and the McLaren
last week it was a disaster, did not go well.
This is not me just looking for some revenge trying
to get back at Lando for what was a bad
week that cost us on the actual bets. But I
(15:22):
look at this and I go, clearly, Ferrari have found
the pace. It's a car that has done very well historically,
where Charlie Clair's at said multiple podium finishes at this
circuit in the past, and the Ferrari are, even though
they are going to finish well behind the Red Bull
or at least kicking it at a good time where
they feel really live to take that number two spot
(15:42):
in the constructors away from Mercedes. So I look at
Charlote Clair at plus one sixty five to finish on
the podium and go, how in the world can he
be ninety cents higher than Lando and Rris who's minus
one twenty five when you compare where the drivers are at. Admittedly,
it's been a great second half surge for McLaren, but
isn't that a little steep on the difference in pricing
McHale Because that's the first bet that jumped off the
(16:04):
page to me was Leclaire podium plus one sixty five.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
So when you look at that right, what it really
comes down to is I don't think McLaren have really
got a grip on their car. They've been very fortunate
at the tracks because they knew that they just didn't
understand how the car is going to work, so they
were fortunate enough to have be able to perform come
race day. Right. They've just been very racy, especially with
the two young drivers of Landon Oriss pr Street. They
(16:29):
have been taking a little bit more risk. Landon Ris
is a great driver, we know that, and so we've
seen a little bit more risky stup from him, but
he also knows how to place the car right now.
The reason why we're seeing Ferrari higher than McLaren, specifically
Charles over lando's due to the fact that even though
(16:50):
Ferrari seemed to have had their issues, they are a
bit more consistent in terms of form over McClaren. They
know how to get the balance right and complain. The
only issue that's come up with Ferrari is reliability, whether
that be on the pest and now department or whether
that be act of the hartware with the machinery that
they're driving. That's the only issue. Other than that, Ferrari
(17:12):
seemed to be well rounded competitive McLaren who are so
I'm gonna say they're reborn right there in the infancy
of trying to figure out what their legacy again will
be in Formula one. With these two drivers and this
great new concept, it's.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So easy to say, you know, if this, if X
hadn't happened, then what would the line be? But if
Charlot Leclair's car doesn't just take a giant crap and
the formation laugh a couple of races ago, and based
on what we then saw in Las Vegas and the
pace there, couldn't you argue that the price would almost
be flipped and Leclair be minus in that minus one
(17:50):
twenty five range to finish on the podium. I certainly do.
I don't know do you agree with me on that?
But it's one of those things where maybe you talk
about reliability and odds makers better say they certainly remember
what a gaff and what an embarrassment that was for
Ferrari a couple of weeks ago. So to me, that's
maybe influencing the market too much on this Leclaire price.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
There's a lot when it comes to that, but I
just think that Leclaric is showing a little bit more
form in terms of fighting closer to his rebel over
the McLarens. To the rebel, the McLaren's will come close
in a couple of laps and then fade away, which
Ferrari seems to take the fight a little bit more
to it's the end and prove right. That's what we
(18:30):
saw with Carlos Signs. That's what we saw with Charles
Leclair fighting up there in Vegas and Carlos in the
midfield battle back there.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
So look, I was I was already sold on my
own bet McHale, your points. I have furthered it, so
I will have Leclaire as a podium finisher. I also
like the Ferrari. This is one of those weeks. I'm
just going to stack the Ferrari double top six minus
one ninety as well. You throw in Carlo Signs, who's
been in very solid form as well. So those are
those are the couple I like and what I want
(18:59):
to do to McHale since we were into the end
of the year and you are part of this, You're
part of the Vison family here, I'm part of this
Vson bets Giving, which if you're not familiar, we have
seven days. It started to recording Wednesday, day before Thanksgiving
started Wednesday. We have seven days to make as many
best as we want. We have to make at least
seven and we get a thousand dollars bankroll, we have
(19:21):
to spend at least five hundred and whoever gets the
most has the most bankroll at the end of the
seven days is the winner of your Vson Bets Giving.
So I am making a commitment here, mchaoe. I will
have it. I want your best bet. I want it
to be included. I will throw it in on my
personal card which you can follow. It's under my Ben
Wilson entry in the Vson Bets Giving. So I am
going to go Leclaire plus one sixty five podium finish,
(19:42):
and I'm also going to throw a pretty big bet
on that Ferrari double top six at minus one ninety
your best bet, McHale, because it will be included as
well on my f one card for bets giving. No pressure, man,
but this is this is your time to shine, all right.
I need to win, need that championship belt.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
So on turn between two of them, right, I like
the plus three fifty for Charles Leclair fastest qualifier, but
I also the rebel are really strong and this is
the first time that was seeing in a while red
Bull double podium plus one of five like, so when
it comes to that, it's hard to choose. I mean,
(20:21):
the fastest qualifying double podium. So take your choice from
one of those. All right, yes, Love, we're taking a
lot on Charles Leclaire, sprinkle a little bit on Red
Bull racing plus double.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
You you are a smart man kill We don't need
to get over exposed on the fryal and look and
there's a pretty realistic world and it happened last week
in which you see all those that's it. You see
Leclaire finishing the podium with the Red Bulls rounding out
the rest of the top three and extra staff and
Sergio Paris. All right, it's done. I'm going to do
that afore for the card. I'm really excited for this
(20:58):
final race weekend here. We're looking for a big finish
of the season as we wrap up, Michael, if you
can run through your full card, what you are all
on and why you like it. In short, it's your final,
your final mega breakdown of all your picks here in
this twenty twenty three season.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
So first one, we'll go qualifying fastest qualified Charles Leclair
plus three fifty again great one lap place from the
Ferraris and Charles now has been a little bit more
of a common mindset so he's looking more on form
as the Martin double top ten finish again, Lancetro carry
with a great momentum from Vegas to the five and
(21:33):
great recovery drive and Fernando Alonso just being Fernando Alonso,
so I believe that they both can get in the
top ten. Hence the plus one thirty five. Also, if
we go back to last year, Lancero finished eighth in
the race, so that's giving me a little bit more
confidence there. Rebel absolutely just rebel dominance again. So plus
(21:53):
one to five for double podium finish is something that
I like. I want to take a little sprinkle on
Alex alban top ten finish just because Williams need a
ten finished, the need points to cover Alpha Tori in
the championship or they both don't finish in the points right,
so there will be a lot of pressure here on
(22:14):
Alex Albin for a top ten finish up plus one
seventy five and then a very very tiny sprinkle on
Charles Leclaire to win the race at fourteen to one,
just because I think that Max and ser Jo will
be given the free reign to race a little bit.
I think they'll get caught up in that a little bit,
and hence Charles been just breeze on buy to win.
(22:35):
But again it's a long shot because everyone knows Max
will stapping when it comes downe he will just pull
out five seconds from the bat from nowhere. So that's
my bat for the Abba w Guan pri at thees
Marina se.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
If only it was that simple. Yeah, that's too rebel.
They get kind of tussle and here comes to Claire
in the back door wins. But I like the card.
I'm excited. I also am going to add that Acid
Martin double top ten the plus one thirty five into
that bets giving account play. So I'll make sure I've
got a couple from you there, Michaale all have a
couple for myself as well. I'm really excited for that contest,
(23:13):
excited for this week, and we'll come back next week.
We'll do our final not only race recap, but we'll
do our just final season recap as we go through
everything that happened and look ahead to some of the
storylines that will dominate the offseason. So excited for that.
I want to say Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Whenever you're
listening to this, I hope you're able to enjoy some
time with family and loved ones. Michael, it's been a pleasure. Man.
(23:34):
Can't believe we're already at the last race of the year.
Look forward to watching this and we will catch up
next week.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
All right, Absolutely, I have a great thanks you having
Ben and the listeners off the Beast in That Blank
Ben Podcast
No investigation necessary. Welcome to Vson's F one Betting Podcast.
A light sound away we go.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
I'll check this A legend, absolutely animal, the only F
one handicap you'll ever need.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Michael, right, find the chef A ship can already.
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Do what you're your hosts F one technical analyst Michale
Miranda and betting expert Ben Wilson. Well, we finally made it,
Michail Miranda. It is the final race, race number twenty
two of this twenty twenty three F one season. We're
back on the Vson F one Betting Podcast. One final
Race prevw to get to here we go, Michale. I
hope the card is robust. I don't know how much
(00:37):
Howard Busted will be because we're outside of a couple
of individual storylines here. This this season has been done
in Dustin, but I'll be curious to see how we
see a couple of recently improved teams performed, starting with Ferrari.
I don't know where you want to start, McHale, but
I've got my on the Ferrari this week. After a
very good performance by both Charlotclair and Carlos Signs in
Las Vegas. I'm curious where you're at on the Ferrari
(01:00):
because I'm in full play on mode there on the
Ferrari heading into this week.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
I agree with you. Thank Ferrari have got a good chance,
especially for a double top six at the pace that
they have and the recent form that Ferrari has been shown.
I think it's you will look good if you're looking
at Ferrari now. It just comes how you want to
look at Ferrari. And I have my how qualifying and
(01:29):
maybe a double top six, but as of right now
it's up in the air. But Ferrari is showing very
very good form right now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Charlie Claire plus three fifty fastest qualifier, you have Carlos
signs nine to one to finish on Paul. I really
wish I had been quick to the trigger when I
saw the odds posted on the Team Props mkil. There
were I believe it was minus one fifty when DraftKings
posted that on the double top six for Ferrari. That's
out now to minus one ninety. I still actually don't
(01:59):
hate that bet as much as you and I are
usually not in the business of laying big over minus
one fifty minus prices. I'm certainly inclined to believe. We
talked about it on the recap episode from Vegas, just
the mindset and general headspace Charlotte Clair is in. It
seems like finally, albeit a little bit too late in
the year, but finally Ferrari have figured out their general
(02:21):
racing strategy and the pace of the cars you talk
about has been on question now for some time. So
that's or I would want to go first. Are you
how confident would you be that Ferrari end up finishing
a head of Mercedes. That's the fight right now. Four
points separate those two for number two in the Constructors.
Speaker 1 (02:39):
I wouldn't be too surprised. But then again, it comes
down to Charles and Callers now not playing individual game,
but the team game as well as Mercedes. Now it
comes down to you have to play the team gay.
If there is one Ferrari behind two Mercedes in between,
if there's a Ferrari sandwich, George and Lou have to
(03:00):
work together, right whoever's ahead needs to keep the dors,
needs to keep the exact pace that they have because
the moment they drop them pace, whoever is behind in
the sandwich won't pounds and won't let them breathe a
little bit, right, So the team game is vital vital.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
Here four point separation, Mercedes lead by four. The other interesting,
another interesting race I want to get your take on, mkill,
is in the drivers' championship standings, where you've got Carlo
signs for Into Alonso each tied for fourth, two hundred points,
Lando Norris five back, Charlotte Clair twelve back and quickly charging.
(03:42):
How would you power rate those four heading into this week, mckill.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
So when I look at it that way, I think
that the Astons are going to have some good double
top ten finish as what I'm looking at again, Lancetroll
showed great pace at Vegas. I think that's going to
carry forward, Yeah, into Yas Marina second as well Fernando.
We know what Fernande can do in that car. So
(04:07):
I have no doubt that you could see a double
top ten. Now I'm not looking at a high double
top ten, right, You're looking anywhere between tenth and around
seventh as well. I will see both cars finishing, just
because I see the Rebels up there, Mercedes up there
and Ferrari up there, and even McClaren above the As
(04:29):
and Martin as of right now, Well.
Speaker 2 (04:31):
We play the same game. Whenever we talk about those
teams in the midfield for double top tens, Aston Martin
plus one thirty five, you're essentially betting on faith in
Aston Martin over faith in Alpine. Who have been that
team who's been able to steal those places? Well, inconsistently right,
It's happened a lot throughout the season Alpen plus two
fifty on the double top ten. So where do you
(04:52):
stand on the Ocon ghastly combo here after a week
in Vegas? We talked about it in the recap episode.
Got off to them great start for Ghasy race went
horribly and not a great start for Ocon and qualifying
but had an unbelievable drive ends up finishing in the
top four.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
See I'm looking at per guess just because I know
what the Alpines can do now towards the end of
the season, I like the minus one ten. The only
issue is I want to see what the weekend shows me.
Right when it comes to Alpine, if you bet on
them early, at least in my case, if I take
(05:27):
the bet on them early, they don't do well at
the race. But if I wait, I might pay a
little bit more tax on the price, but it will
be well worth the bigcause I'm seeing I'm getting a
bit more data on the cars and the drivers and
how they ferried around the track.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
Sure, and you look at the three drivers right now
who are projected to finish in that edge of the
points race Lancetrow up here, Gas, Yes, about ocon. They're
all minus one ten as the tenth drivers on the
odds board right now to finish in the point. So
it's really just to take your pick a situation. And
it's funny. As much as I've been super anti Lance
(06:03):
Stroll all year, this is it's been a broken record.
I know you were on Stroll McHale back in Canada
right in Montreal, but outside that, like I've just been
looking to fade him at every juncture. You have to
give the guy credit though, for going from p nineteen
to five in the last race. You talk about how
the upgrades it seems like have finally hit for Aston Martin,
(06:23):
maybe a bit later than expected after their late season adjustments.
So between the three, like I don't know, I kind
of look at Stroll and say, since that's obviously the
focal driver between the two instead of as much as
the price right, plus one thirty five for double top
ten is enticing because it's plus money. What you're really
betting on is Stroll to finish in the point, So
(06:45):
take away maybe the you know, the opportunity or the
chances you get a crash here and something happens to Alonso.
We've seen that happen so far this year. I believe
Alonzo was a casualty last year in this race when
he was at his old team Alpin. So I had
almost rather just if I like Aston Martin, I'd just
rather make a make a standard bet on Stroll minus
one ten points finish and you take away some of
(07:05):
the other variables out there. You agree with that logic.
Does that make sense?
Speaker 1 (07:10):
It does make sense. But I'm in the opposite of you,
just because I think that Stroll but there's nothing to
fight for now, so you can you can just relax.
Right once the driver are in this mindset of like,
there's no more need to attack as much, right, I
think they perform much better. And now that we're here,
(07:31):
I think Stroll is going to have some fun. I
think for now it's going to have some fun. And
because of that, because the driver's mindset's a little bit
more easied up. I'm going to look at the double
top ten andl plus one thirty five over your minus
one tent. Right, we both have the same thing, right,
We're both betting on Stroll to do well here. But
I think Stroll's going to carry that high P five
(07:52):
momentum because it was a great recovery drive, right, and
we now we know that Stroll can do good in
a world balanced car with the upgrades now on to
work with that of mine. Right, I'm holding him a
little bit high in regard as we're going into Apathaby
now this way in the middle of the season, I
would not do so, but because at the end of
(08:13):
the season and everything is started to die down a
little bit, I will take him. I'll give him a
little bit of the benefit of the.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
Down max for Staping is your race favorite in case
you were unaware living under a rock the last six
months minus three ninety. I'm seeing him right now to
run the weight to win the race. And I'm glad
you brought up the whole motivation standpoint, because I think
that's a big question a lot of betters will have
this week. You have for staffing coming in. He's actually
won this race the season finale three straight years. Even
(08:41):
in a season like last year where the championship had
already been wrapped up, he still went out and won.
So for Stapping is sort of in his own little bubble, right,
He's a guy doesn't matter how early the championship has
been clinched. He's the ultimate competitor. He'll still want to
go out and win the race when it comes. No
more to the midfield and where you see a lot
of the betting variants happening, where there could be the
(09:02):
perceived value. How do you see these sorts of races?
McHale just from the standpoint of not only motivation, but
just maybe teams go a little bit more aggressive, Maybe
they try some new things that they wouldn't have been
so inclined to do. If we were saying at race
nine in the year, what have you seen just since
you filed this longer than I have over the last
five ten years, of how teams that are out of
(09:23):
it tend to approach the final race.
Speaker 1 (09:25):
So that's the thing. Teams aren't as of it as
you said. Mercedes and Ferrari fights in McLaren Aston Martin fighting,
and we also have Williams and Alpha Toro fighting because
theyres seven points between them, right, and that doesn't go
too far because there's about a five point different from
Alfa Romeo, right, So that's all just for P six,
(09:50):
So there are still battles going on. But I just
don't think that Alfa Romeo get enough pace in the car.
Alpha TOI seem to have this on and off day,
so I hope they can get it on. Williams here
are going to be fighting. Alex Alban needs to deliver
a top ten finish and now we're looking at Alex
Album plus one seventy five. I'm going to have him
(10:13):
in my betting slip just because I know that Williams
need to get someone in the points here, and I
don't trust Sergeant because he's at nine to one just
for a points finish. Sergeant just he couldn't deliver in
Vegas and he could deliver in qualifying, So I think
we might see something similar where they do really well
in qualifying and not to get in the race. But
(10:35):
Alex Album here because he's a senior driver, is more
experienced and just absolutely increases racecraft here at Williams. They
need him to finish the points above both the alphatris,
so there's gonna be a little bit moressure on Alex
album he needs to deliver. So my betting slip is
going to have Alex albin as a top ten Rebel
double podium at plus one five as the Martin double
(10:57):
top ten plus one thirty five. Charles Leclaire is the
first qualified because again he's got that pace in the
car at plus three fifty. I'm also taking a look
at a long shot on Charles Leclair for a race
winner at fourteen to one, just because I know that
Rebel no longer need to play the team game year,
so they might let the drivers race. In doing so,
(11:19):
they might just give a little bit of a sliver
of hope to Ferrari and Charles needs to switch it
on right. He needs to get this. So a little
sprinkle at fourteen to one for Charles like pizza money,
maybe about ten dollars on this one, just because.
Speaker 3 (11:36):
I know if there's one thing, if there's one thing
you love, Michailee, you've been enticed all year by the
ten to fourteen to one long shots to win the race.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I love it.
Speaker 1 (11:48):
So sometimes you've got to take a little bit of shot,
especially now at the not a dependent worth the actual
ultimate race of the season.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Shoot your shot, man, Hey, I like it will what
we'll do too. I want to get your take just
on on this track as a whole, since this has
been a tract that I think a lot of casual
race fans have seen a lot more of than your
standard track just because it's always the final race of
the year in not every season, but we've had a
lot of races where there's been so much at stake
and so a lot more eyeballs I hear on this range.
So race breakdown here with the track, Mikhail, as we
(12:18):
were talking about Agrid, that has gotten a lot of
eyeballs just from your general casual F one viewer and
better over the year. Since it is the final race
of the season. What have you noticed that has worked
well what hasn't for specific teams? In your race breakdown
here of the track.
Speaker 1 (12:33):
So Mercedes going to talk about them very very draggy car.
So anytime there is times where they be at the
top speed, they don't seem to get it right. Ferrari,
anyone that's got a Ferrari engine seem to deliver really
good one lap pace you're in qualifying. We've seen that
with Ferrari themselves and the works team. We've seen that
(12:55):
with Has, with Niko Howkinba, We've had time seen it
from bost Us and Joe, and we've even seen it
right from everyone on the grid. It's just their one
lap pace to Ferrari is just phenomenal. Alpha Tori Alpine,
Alfa Romeo irrelevant at times just because there's too much
(13:16):
of the battle going on. Logan starts don't suddenly to
prove himself because he doesn't have a seat for next
year confirmed. But I think after Vegas preview he has
shown great development over the past year and I think
they may they'll retain him for the seat next year.
McLaren great Tennar round. They just have to work on
(13:37):
trying to figure out what works for the car. Just
because they bought upgrades and the car has now been
in the concept that they want, it does not mean
that they understand the car. They have ways to go
and to find the right balance at each and every track.
The sprint race throws everything off for all teams, right.
We've seen this in Brazil with Mercedes where they just
(13:58):
got everything horribly horribly wrong and one able to recover right,
red Bull dominant. That's it. There's nothing else you can say.
They've just been able to create a car that's just
fantastic all round. Right. Sojio Paris needs to work a
little bit on his qualifying position as well as his
(14:21):
race finished position, because again, when we saw the fight
in Vegas last week, it just showed that how all
prepared Sergio Paris is when it comes to having to
fight the battles, right, he needs to be able to
place their car in the perfect position. Now, this comes
with over time, as we saw with Fernando in Brazil
(14:41):
when he was able to let Sergio Paris through on
the lap and then fight it back and take Peak three.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Right.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
So Bearers needs to get a little bit more race
craft in him. He needs to be able to get
a little bit more raci awareness as well. I think
that's my breakdown for the entire season so far, and.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
It brings up to me, what is maybe the bet
of the week to make from a over plus one
fifty per cent point right now? Because as much as
we are really high in landon Norris and the McLaren
last week it was a disaster, did not go well.
This is not me just looking for some revenge trying
to get back at Lando for what was a bad
week that cost us on the actual bets. But I
(15:22):
look at this and I go, clearly, Ferrari have found
the pace. It's a car that has done very well historically,
where Charlie Clair's at said multiple podium finishes at this
circuit in the past, and the Ferrari are, even though
they are going to finish well behind the Red Bull
or at least kicking it at a good time where
they feel really live to take that number two spot
(15:42):
in the constructors away from Mercedes. So I look at
Charlote Clair at plus one sixty five to finish on
the podium and go, how in the world can he
be ninety cents higher than Lando and Rris who's minus
one twenty five when you compare where the drivers are at. Admittedly,
it's been a great second half surge for McLaren, but
isn't that a little steep on the difference in pricing
McHale Because that's the first bet that jumped off the
(16:04):
page to me was Leclaire podium plus one sixty five.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
So when you look at that right, what it really
comes down to is I don't think McLaren have really
got a grip on their car. They've been very fortunate
at the tracks because they knew that they just didn't
understand how the car is going to work, so they
were fortunate enough to have be able to perform come
race day. Right. They've just been very racy, especially with
the two young drivers of Landon Oriss pr Street. They
(16:29):
have been taking a little bit more risk. Landon Ris
is a great driver, we know that, and so we've
seen a little bit more risky stup from him, but
he also knows how to place the car right now.
The reason why we're seeing Ferrari higher than McLaren, specifically
Charles over lando's due to the fact that even though
(16:50):
Ferrari seemed to have had their issues, they are a
bit more consistent in terms of form over McClaren. They
know how to get the balance right and complain. The
only issue that's come up with Ferrari is reliability, whether
that be on the pest and now department or whether
that be act of the hartware with the machinery that
they're driving. That's the only issue. Other than that, Ferrari
(17:12):
seemed to be well rounded competitive McLaren who are so
I'm gonna say they're reborn right there in the infancy
of trying to figure out what their legacy again will
be in Formula one. With these two drivers and this
great new concept, it's.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
So easy to say, you know, if this, if X
hadn't happened, then what would the line be? But if
Charlot Leclair's car doesn't just take a giant crap and
the formation laugh a couple of races ago, and based
on what we then saw in Las Vegas and the
pace there, couldn't you argue that the price would almost
be flipped and Leclair be minus in that minus one
(17:50):
twenty five range to finish on the podium. I certainly do.
I don't know do you agree with me on that?
But it's one of those things where maybe you talk
about reliability and odds makers better say they certainly remember
what a gaff and what an embarrassment that was for
Ferrari a couple of weeks ago. So to me, that's
maybe influencing the market too much on this Leclaire price.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
There's a lot when it comes to that, but I
just think that Leclaric is showing a little bit more
form in terms of fighting closer to his rebel over
the McLarens. To the rebel, the McLaren's will come close
in a couple of laps and then fade away, which
Ferrari seems to take the fight a little bit more
to it's the end and prove right. That's what we
(18:30):
saw with Carlos Signs. That's what we saw with Charles
Leclair fighting up there in Vegas and Carlos in the
midfield battle back there.
Speaker 2 (18:38):
So look, I was I was already sold on my
own bet McHale, your points. I have furthered it, so
I will have Leclaire as a podium finisher. I also
like the Ferrari. This is one of those weeks. I'm
just going to stack the Ferrari double top six minus
one ninety as well. You throw in Carlo Signs, who's
been in very solid form as well. So those are
those are the couple I like and what I want
(18:59):
to do to McHale since we were into the end
of the year and you are part of this, You're
part of the Vison family here, I'm part of this
Vson bets Giving, which if you're not familiar, we have
seven days. It started to recording Wednesday, day before Thanksgiving
started Wednesday. We have seven days to make as many
best as we want. We have to make at least
seven and we get a thousand dollars bankroll, we have
(19:21):
to spend at least five hundred and whoever gets the
most has the most bankroll at the end of the
seven days is the winner of your Vson Bets Giving.
So I am making a commitment here, mchaoe. I will
have it. I want your best bet. I want it
to be included. I will throw it in on my
personal card which you can follow. It's under my Ben
Wilson entry in the Vson Bets Giving. So I am
going to go Leclaire plus one sixty five podium finish,
(19:42):
and I'm also going to throw a pretty big bet
on that Ferrari double top six at minus one ninety
your best bet, McHale, because it will be included as
well on my f one card for bets giving. No pressure, man,
but this is this is your time to shine, all right.
I need to win, need that championship belt.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
So on turn between two of them, right, I like
the plus three fifty for Charles Leclair fastest qualifier, but
I also the rebel are really strong and this is
the first time that was seeing in a while red
Bull double podium plus one of five like, so when
it comes to that, it's hard to choose. I mean,
(20:21):
the fastest qualifying double podium. So take your choice from
one of those. All right, yes, Love, we're taking a
lot on Charles Leclaire, sprinkle a little bit on Red
Bull racing plus double.
Speaker 2 (20:36):
You you are a smart man kill We don't need
to get over exposed on the fryal and look and
there's a pretty realistic world and it happened last week
in which you see all those that's it. You see
Leclaire finishing the podium with the Red Bulls rounding out
the rest of the top three and extra staff and
Sergio Paris. All right, it's done. I'm going to do
that afore for the card. I'm really excited for this
(20:58):
final race weekend here. We're looking for a big finish
of the season as we wrap up, Michael, if you
can run through your full card, what you are all
on and why you like it. In short, it's your final,
your final mega breakdown of all your picks here in
this twenty twenty three season.
Speaker 1 (21:13):
So first one, we'll go qualifying fastest qualified Charles Leclair
plus three fifty again great one lap place from the
Ferraris and Charles now has been a little bit more
of a common mindset so he's looking more on form
as the Martin double top ten finish again, Lancetro carry
with a great momentum from Vegas to the five and
(21:33):
great recovery drive and Fernando Alonso just being Fernando Alonso,
so I believe that they both can get in the
top ten. Hence the plus one thirty five. Also, if
we go back to last year, Lancero finished eighth in
the race, so that's giving me a little bit more
confidence there. Rebel absolutely just rebel dominance again. So plus
(21:53):
one to five for double podium finish is something that
I like. I want to take a little sprinkle on
Alex alban top ten finish just because Williams need a
ten finished, the need points to cover Alpha Tori in
the championship or they both don't finish in the points right,
so there will be a lot of pressure here on
(22:14):
Alex Albin for a top ten finish up plus one
seventy five and then a very very tiny sprinkle on
Charles Leclaire to win the race at fourteen to one,
just because I think that Max and ser Jo will
be given the free reign to race a little bit.
I think they'll get caught up in that a little bit,
and hence Charles been just breeze on buy to win.
(22:35):
But again it's a long shot because everyone knows Max
will stapping when it comes downe he will just pull
out five seconds from the bat from nowhere. So that's
my bat for the Abba w Guan pri at thees
Marina se.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
If only it was that simple. Yeah, that's too rebel.
They get kind of tussle and here comes to Claire
in the back door wins. But I like the card.
I'm excited. I also am going to add that Acid
Martin double top ten the plus one thirty five into
that bets giving account play. So I'll make sure I've
got a couple from you there, Michaale all have a
couple for myself as well. I'm really excited for that contest,
(23:13):
excited for this week, and we'll come back next week.
We'll do our final not only race recap, but we'll
do our just final season recap as we go through
everything that happened and look ahead to some of the
storylines that will dominate the offseason. So excited for that.
I want to say Happy Thanksgiving to everybody. Whenever you're
listening to this, I hope you're able to enjoy some
time with family and loved ones. Michael, it's been a pleasure. Man.
(23:34):
Can't believe we're already at the last race of the year.
Look forward to watching this and we will catch up
next week.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
All right, Absolutely, I have a great thanks you having
Ben and the listeners off the Beast in That Blank
Ben Podcast
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Nikki Glaser Podcast
Every week comedian and infamous roaster Nikki Glaser provides a fun, fast-paced, and brutally honest look into current pop-culture and her own personal life.