Luke & I on the Phillies Ep. 35: Skubal Shoves, Harper vs Ohtani for MVP -- 6/26/24

Luke Arcaini and Sean Brace recap a tough loss to Tarik Skubal and the Tigers on Tuesday night. Bryce Harper is going to win MVP, but the race vs Shohei Ohtani is going to be legendary. Brought to you by Fox Sports The Gambler. 

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
There's a right now, breaking shadowright going off Castiano's coming on Championship.

(00:31):
This is Luke and I on thePhillies, brought to you by Fox Sports
The Gambler. Hello everybody, andaway we go Buies Baseball, where every
one of the players will be startingin the All Star Game, much to
Mets fans disappointment across the board.Hello everybody, you got Luke Arcaney,

(00:55):
you got Sean Brace. This isa show by the name of Luke and
I on the philm He's very selfexplanatory there, Luke, are we doing
man? Glad to have you backup here in Pennsylvania. I was Florida.
Yeah, doing good. It definitelytook a little while to get back
up from from Florida to Pennsylvania.Original flight was supposed to take off at
two o'clock. Didn't get into aboutone o'clock last night. So it was

(01:19):
I gotta ask, gotta ask whatairline? Frontier. We went on the
little cheaper side, went on thecheaper side. But the see, the
issue was so it wasn't the itwasn't the airline. It was it was
We got on the plane and stormsrolled in for about two and a half
to three hours. So it wasthe plane was on, the storms were

(01:42):
in, then they had to refuelthe plane. It was, it was.
It was kind of a disaster.But the only issue is when you
get into the world that like spiritis way down here Frontier. I've flown
Frontier and I got screwed. Sothis is why I know. The only
issue is is they don't have alot of planes. Exactly if you do
go us Air or Delta, theyhave other planes, right, so,

(02:07):
like, you know, they'll makeit happen. Storms are storms. You
know, there's not much you cando about it. They're gonna landlock all
the planes. But that was theonly thing. So we flew Frontier one
time to Raleigh, North Carolina,smooth sailing down. Coming back there was
a snowstorm and next thing you know, that was like on a Sunday,
they're telling us the next flight outTuesday. That was like a decade ago.
Yeah. I was like, yeah, I'm good at that. So

(02:28):
we literally drove had to rent acar and we drove from Rolly, North
Carolina to Yeah, we were justwaiting honestly for them to say like a
hotel room or something. But butwe got up in the air. We
were we were good. It wasand then he texted the group chat and
he goes, wait a minute,the Nick's got who Yeah, dude,
I was like, what happened?So well? All thrown off is definitely

(02:55):
uh the way I felt after yesterday'sgame for the Phillies. And again,
you play one sixty two. You'renot gonna win every one of those games.
But just from Ranger and he gaveup nine hits, four earned.
He had a bad inning. Hehad three or four strikeouts heading into that
inning, which was the bottom ofthe fifth, and it was just a

(03:15):
disaster inning for him. He couldn'tget out of it. Gave up four
runs and that was all they needed. Four to one was your final score.
Bats went a little silent last nightfor the Fightings, fully expected,
except for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarberalso went one of three last night.
Maryfield also went one of three.So only four total hits for the Phillies

(03:38):
yesterday. But you wipe that awayonto the next one, and that's what
we're here to do today. Asone ten, first pitch coming your way.
Spencer Turnbull getting his turn on themound for the Fightings minus won sixty
six on DraftKings Sportsbook. Nine isyour total here, Tyler Holton on the
mound for the Detroit Tigers. Youcan at them on DK at plus one

(04:00):
forty money line. Again, nineis your total. First of all,
let's start with Rangers Suarez. Anythingfor you on his outing yesterday? Yeah,
I mean, I I obviously didn'tget to catch much of the game,
but seems like it was kind ofjust one bad inning. Seems like
it kind of just wasn't really flowand got knocked around a little bit that
ending. I mean, he'll finishthe day with allow nine hits one,

(04:25):
two, three, four. Fiveof them came in that inning, So
that's seems like just kind of gotknocked around. And I mean, the
front end of this this Tigers lineupisn't isn't the worst. Matt Feelings having
a really good year. Riley Greenhas been hitting the ball really well this
year, So I mean that frontthat front end of the Tigers lineup can

(04:46):
definitely do a little bit of damageagainst lefties, especially, but just kind
of seems just like a it's oneof those innings you kind of just have
to got to crumble it up,toss the away and move on. I
mean, his era rose up toa whopping two point oh one after that
game. So definitely not worried aboutRanger at all. Just just just one

(05:11):
of those innings. Really, Ican't even say one of those games because
it doesn't even seem like it wasone of those games. It was really
just just one of those innings thatjust sometimes just doesn't go your way when
you're out there. Well again,I guess more from yesterday's game, we
got to talk about Bryce Harper.It's definitely a hot button topic for us
in the group chat and you know, look like let's just take the wagering

(05:34):
out of it, and who's goingto win. This is gonna be pretty
special. It has the vibe rightnow. Forgive me because it's just a
lack of a better example in mymind, but like the Sosa MacGuire right
where they're going head to head andthey're not hitting bombs like that, listen
to what I'm saying. Just thefact that all eyes on baseball were on

(05:57):
those two. I really do believethat come August September, if these two
show hey and Bryce Harper continue todo what they're doing, like we're trading
taxibizers in our group chat where we'rehaving fun with each other. I have
a four to one ticket on ShowioTani, so of course I'm pulling for
a little old tiny. However,if I lose that wager, that means
Bryce Harper has absolutely smashed the baseballto oblivion from here and to the end

(06:19):
of the season. That means thePhillies continue to win. So I am
fine with losing that wager. Trustme when I say that, I mean
it one hundred percent. But we'retrading taximisers. I'm like, well,
show Hey, just went yard,and then all of a sudden, Roy's
checking in. Well, Harper justwent yard and of course had the big
game the day before, had twohome runs over the weekend. These two
players are simply in a stratosphere totheir own. Yeah, and it's it's

(06:45):
gonna be one. It's gonna bea really awesome battle the rest of the
year, especially with the Dodgers losingMookie because Mooki was kind of up there
as well. So I think Mookiebeing up there could have taken a bit
away from Show Hey. But nowit's I mean, it's it's it's it
is one. It is it isthose guys are are the only two right

(07:09):
now that that are gonna win thataward, right and and it's going to
come down to just obviously, Ithink we know Tany will probably finish with
more homers, and he'll probably finishwith the better offensive stats mostly. Uh
but I mean, I mean,Harper's slugging one eleven hundred over the last

(07:30):
seven games. His his ops isnow up the nine to ninety two.
He has fifty seven RBIs already,twenty home runs, eighty five hits.
He's and he's also hitting three ofsix like he's he's not doing this with
a some two seventy five average likehe's, he's, he's, he's,
he's hitting like over three hundred rightnow. I mean, last thirty games,

(07:51):
he's hitting three forty two with asix sixty seven slugging percentage is twenty
one RBIs over the last thirty games. He has twelve RBIs over the last
fifteen games, and he has elevenRBIs over the last seven games. Like
it's what he's doing right now.He's just on one of those Price Harper
tears where he the ball to himlooks like a beach ball right now,

(08:13):
coming In, it's it's it's gonnabe awesome. It's gonna be a really
awesome race over these next few months. My my Harper twelve to one ticket
is pushing and I believe he's nowdown to like plus one seventy to win.
But it's it's gonna be a really, really awesome race over the next
few months. Yeah, Justin didpoint out on the chat here that there

(08:37):
was a turner air that was ruleda hit would have been an easy double
play. He is right about that. Look, you know, like we
said, yeah, we're not,We're not. That's that's how you could
say, like again, we getcaught up in this right where you know,
John and I, John Jensen andI were doing the show yesterday.
It's like, okay, give usa winning player from the Phillies. You
know immediately they are a much betterteam than Detroit. Detroit's not on the

(09:01):
same playing field as as the Philliesare. This is a team that got
swept by. They just lost twoor three to the White Sox. They
got swept by. I think theBraves before that, which you know,
Braves are a good squad. Iwant to give them their credit, but
the Phillies are a much better team. And I was saying, was like,
oh, Rangers gonna go up thereand mow them down. I'm looking
at the six to seventy eight strikeoutsand sometimes you just got to take a

(09:24):
step back and say it's not thateasy. And that's clearly the case from
yesterday and when they have their aceon the mound. If if if you
don't know about tik schoolbl then thenyou could call yeahau the dude is an
absolute monster. Hey total was seven? Seven? Should that should have been
the the eye opener right there,It's like, wait, seven is your

(09:46):
total? Like okay, yeah,yeah, he I mean he's just he's
just been absolutely absurd this year.I believe still the leader to win the
cy Young. I do have acy Young ticket eleven to one. No,
I think we had we had somewe had some switch on that.
I know DraftKings Hadhee Lern in frontof him heading into that game because we
were talking about it yesterday in theshow. Yeah, I mean, I

(10:09):
mean one seven e r a atnine and three record, I mean he
has one hundred and twelve strikeouts.All right, you're talking about screwball.
Sorry, I think you're talking onehundred and twelve strikeouts already, uh an
e r a under two, five, a whip under one. He's just
he's just been cross. I'm pullingfor you. But you can get him
at plus one seventy. That's adecent number. Up. The only thing

(10:33):
I would say is Burns Baltimore.Yeah, I I I think I'd still
lean towards towards Schooble there though,I think I I do like that one
seventy number. Now that you said, yeah, it's a good number.
The only thing that hits me isyou just you know, these voters get
caught up in the team atmosphere,the team standings in Baltimore's a beast man,
they're so good. If these guysgo into October with with basically even

(10:58):
stats, and you have one teamwho's possibly the one seed in the playoffs
and one team who's not gonna probablymake the playoffs, maybe try and fight
for a last wild card spot.I think it's pretty obvious who they would
give it to. But I mean, right now, if you had to
hand it to somebody, it's absolutelyToxico. All right, let's talk a
little bit about today's ball game,and like you said, we discussed this

(11:22):
a little earlier and very interesting.We understand how it came about. But
Spencer Turnbull, come on down.You're getting your start here this evening,
former Detroit Tiger this afternoon and Turnbullto the rotation. What does that mean
to you, Luke? Yeah,So obviously with the Walker injury, right

(11:43):
now, we think it's it's it'smostly an injury, did you, guys,
I don't think there's any I thinkeverybody knows that the Phillies aren't happy
with how Walker has been pitching.I don't think Walker is happy with hell
he's been pitching. I would atleast hope he's not happy with how he's
been pitching. But now they geta guy like that back in Spencer Turnbull,

(12:09):
who obviously had had a really awesomestart to the beginning of his season
when he was in the lineup orin this rotation. I mean he's started
off the year. I mean hehad a one six seven ERA in April,
and I mean until he moved tothe bullpen, he was he was
like one of the best starters onthe team the first month of the season.

(12:31):
The issue is now can he getstretched back out, can he get
used to kind of getting back intothat starter role after being in the bullpen
for the last month and a half. I believe he'll be on some sort
of a pitch count today, I'dsay probably around seventy seventy five. But
I'm very confident in him sort ofgetting back because if he's any bit of
what he was the first month orso of the season, I think it'll

(12:54):
be definitely an upgrade from what Walkerwas giving them since he returned. But
no, I'm definitely excited to seeTurnbull out there again because he's He's talked
a lot about how he's he's,he's, he's he loves being here and
he and he he he loves pitchingas a as a starter, So I
I think it's it's gonna be areally awesome, nice little comeback for him.

(13:16):
Today. We got a line upyet, we do. We do
have a lineup just about everything normalHorber, Troy Harper, Bom Castianos,
Top Marsh uh and then you haveleft field David Doll and behind the play
guard stuffs. So nothing really crazyon that end, Pretty pretty simple.

(13:37):
Uh. The Tigers sort of liningup same as well, Velin Keith Green
Marcanna, Perez, Malloy, Badoo, Kelly, and Kraedler. So just
about all the same things for bothteams as well. Very interesting game.
Of course, Turnbul of a coupleof seasons, had a no hitter with
the Detroit Tigers. Definitely will havethe blood pumping. Look, I think

(14:01):
he's a really good pitcher. Ithink he's really turned it around. And
I guess revived would be a wordof Like, I didn't think he'd be
on this level, you know.I know he had a couple of relief
spots a couple of starts as wellfor the Phillies, So I do,
like Turnbull, I'm a little concernedmaybe that, like you know, the
extra juice might get him, Like, hey, I'm intrigued with the fact

(14:22):
that you brought up that, hey, he could be on a pitch count,
should be on a pitch count somethingto keep our minds there. But
again, strength of this team Bullpen, So yeah, to me, I
just think it's a matter of factthat the Phillies go out one o'clock today
in Detroit and come away with theseries. And I don't think it's a
bad wager for you to say,Okay, let's go ahead and take him

(14:43):
right here at minus one sixty six, a little pricey if you're feeling froggy
at minus one oh five. Atthe minus one and a half, I
don't have an issue with that ninetotal, though I might look at the
underdoll Luke where he's standing this game. Yeah, I'm kind of shaky about
the over on just because the Tigersare sort of throwing like a bullpen game.

(15:03):
There's kind of an opener going outthere, so I don't really love
looking at the side of the total. I would probably lean under though,
just because that number is pretty highfor for your average baseball game. But
I would probably lean under. Ithink I am gonna go Philly's minus one
and a half though. I mean, I think Harper is just like rolling

(15:30):
and honestly, I think Harper canpush this offense to the minus one and
a half by himself right now.So I'm gonna probably look at the minus
one and a half. I'm gonnalook at all harper props, bases,
hits, sort of everything on theirhits runs RBIs it just just if Harper's
hot, you have to ride thehot streak, right because he when Harper

(15:50):
goes he he goes and he doesn'tlook in the rearview mirror, and he
just goes one hundred and forty deadstraight. So I'm gonna look at the
Phillies minus one and a half Philliesmoney line, and basically any sort of
Harper props I can I can find. Probably gonna look at another home run.
I mean, it's just the dude'sjust just on a freaking tear right

(16:11):
Yeah, ten game hitting streak,really seeing the ball clear. Of course,
had a double in a home runyesterday, the previous game, had
the first inning double where he playedit. Two things are rolling right now,
coming off the big weekend at homeand against the Diamondbacks, So I
have no issues there. The oneplayer that I would look at a little
bit more too, to continue toget his get on base Boem, who

(16:37):
was coming off at over four performance. You know, look, he's dialed
in this season hitting three h nine. I would definitely look at his total
bases as I'm trying to pull upright now on DK. Bom is a
guy I would look at here.Of course, as you said, with
Harper, when he's dialed in,what about anybody's sneaky? Is there a
name are we looking at Stubs fora possible appearance. I feel like he

(17:00):
weird to say this, but Ifeel like he always has like a good
game in the afternoon. Yeah.No, I and because most of the
time he does catch those day games. Yeah, you are, You're absolutely
correct. I believe Stubbs has ahit in nine of his last eleven games,
so I would I would look maybeat a hit there for Stubbs today.

(17:22):
Any there's there's not some some bitof a juicy odds Garrett Stubbs.
If you want to get crazy,Garrett Subs home run plus eleven hundreds,
Kyle Schwarber home run plus two seventy. I mean I've seen that number at
like one forty the past few days, So yep, if you want to
compare value over the last few weeks, I mean, Schwarber two seventy,

(17:44):
I think could be maybe a numberto look at, but I would I
would really lean Harper. Uh.I am looking at the Stubbs hit is
minus one thirty, So that's prettygood value for a guy that has been
getting on base when he's when he'sbeen on the field. So I am
gonna go one hit for Stubbs minusone thirty and then basically just all the

(18:06):
Harper pops and I am gonna goSchwerver home run as so I think that's
pretty good number. Today, I'mlooking at Boom. I'm gonna take Bomb
here. I like his total basesat over one and a half at minus
one twenty, so I'm boomed upHarper. I have no issues at over
one and a half as well atminus one oh five. If you're gonna
look at Bomb, you should lookat Harper as well. Those are two

(18:26):
easy plays in my mind. Again, anything from Turnbull from the pitching prop
standpoint, I wouldn't touch much justbecause of the pitch count. I can
look at the strackdout pop It's overthree and a half minus one ten.
I mean, if I had tomake a wager on that, I would
probably lean towards the over. Hestruck out a pretty good amount of batters

(18:52):
per inning, like compared to leagueaverage, so I would probably look at
the over three and a half.I wouldn't go any higher than that,
but I would take the over threeand a half in hopes of him maybe
four or five. I'm just alittle worried about the pitch count hits allowed,
this is kind of a kind ofa weird one, but over three

(19:14):
and a half feels a little crazyfor a guy just coming back to the
rotation. I would maybe look atthe over there at minus one fifty,
not saying or hoping that he's gonnaget shelled, but I think expecting a
guy to come back into the rotationand allow under three and a half hits
is a bit of an ask.So I mean, maybe over that over

(19:37):
three and a half hits. Atat minus one fifty, there's really no
props up for the Tigers pitchers justbecause they're kind of sort of running an
opener today, so really just turnableprops up there. But I would I'm
gonna look at that over three anda half strikeouts. I think as long
as he just gets to four,I'm not expecting six, seven, eight,
Just get to the four or fivemark, I think we'll be good

(19:59):
there. Yeah you were, I'mlooking at Turnbulls. He's got three in
his last ten appearances, three outingswhere he pitched three innings. He had
a total of zero strikeouts against theMets. Back on May to fifteenth,
he was roughed up. He gaveup nine hits the other one was back
against Saint Louis on June the first, struck out six and three innings.

(20:22):
And then back on June twenty firstagainst the Diamondbacks, just a short couple
of days ago, three innings andyou know, struck out two in that
game. And I will say this, every one of his starts in April
he hit at least six strikeouts otherthan one. So he when he was
a starter, he was striking guysout. It's just a matter of,

(20:45):
you know, getting him back intothe rotation now with the pitch counts sort
of a sort of a little bitof an adjustment. But I would I
would look at the over three anda half, all right, Yeah,
Phil's right now holding fifty two andtwenty seven with the second best record in
basebust only behind Arden. Ah.Wow, Guardians, Guardians what the biggest

(21:11):
of the entire season so far?The Cleveland Gardens have to be, have
to be absolutely guardians up there.Uh, Mariners playing a lot, a
lot better than and honestly, theBoston Red Sox just have played way better
than my expectations were for them thisyear. But I mean the Cleveland the

(21:32):
Guardians having the best winning percentage ofbaseball right now. It's just absolutely wild.
Yeah, and they took the lasttwo. They got the Orioles,
So just outing the Orioles how greatthey are, and they are. But
that's a series that has that's prettysignificant for both teams, but at the
end of the day, a littlebit bigger for Cleveland because I'm sure there's

(21:53):
a lot of doubters out there.And the Guardians go on the road and
take the first two games in thatthree game set against the Orioles yesterday ten
to eight, in game one,three to two. So got to give
props to the Cleveland Guardian's definitely asurprise when you have a guy like I
like Jose Ramirez right now, who'sjust out on a freaking tear. I
mean, I think he has seventytwo RBIs this season already. I mean

(22:15):
he's on, he's on, he'son pace for like nearly one hundred and
fifty rb eyes. He could behe could be a sneaky I know the
race right now is really judges tolose. Yeah, but if you want
to get if you want to findsome good odds, I think he's probably
been the third best player in theAmerican League this season, and he's twenty

(22:37):
five to one to win MV period, so that that that could be a
number that could be a little bitof a sprinkle right now. I mean
I think it is. It isdefinitely Aaron Aaron Judges Award to lose,
but I mean anything can happen.It's baseball. I mean, Ramirez has
been on an absolute tear. Ifyou're on pace for forty home runs and
one hundred and forty five RBIs,I think twenty five to one on a

(23:00):
great number right now. Well,I would also say that, look,
Judge, forgive me for floating usout there, but definitely catches an injury
or two from time to time,and if he gets if he goes down
for a decent amount of time,Gunnar Henderson is the real deal. So
that's tough and especially what we discussed, but we're talking about a team coming

(23:21):
out of nowhere. Of course,Ramirez is the big offensive stud in that
lineup. So I think, youknow, like you said, twenty five
to one, we look for thevalue. There's definitely value at a twenty
five to one play right now,Judge minus one eighty to lead the charge,
Bobby Wit in between those guys andJuan so do it plus five to
fifty Yeah, I mean, nowthat I'm looking at it, that,
I mean, that's absolutely the bestvalue between almost all awards. Even though

(23:45):
I do think that I don't seeAaron Judge losing this award. I mean
that twenty five to one for aguy who's on pace to hit forty home
runs and have one hundred and fiftyRBIs that that's a little nuts right now
for me. Excellent stuff. Anyfinal thoughts on today's game, And then
of course got a four game seriescoming up against the Fish at home,

(24:07):
the old Fish. Now I gotnothing. Just get out of here with
a series win, sweep the Fish, and we're right back in at best
record in baseball. Will be good. But that's what I'm talking about.
This team's a wagon, and Ireally do think Harper's gonna win the MVP.
I just something about it. It'sit's going to be a an a
a race that I don't think weforget for a while. But I think

(24:30):
Harper's gonna come out on top ofthe end. We'll see. It should
be fun. I am excited,you know. Look, just like I
said, if these two teams continueto do what they're doing, you know,
putting up the numbers two players.Excuse me, it's gonna be a
hell of a race. And thencome August, it's September, it's going

(24:51):
to be one of those that catcheseverybody's attention. You got two of the
biggest names to ever play the game. And that's the reality of where we're
at right now with Show Hey andBryce Harper. It's funny. I was
watching I was reading some things onthe timeline yesterday and they were like,
take us back a few years agowhen Harper was with the Washington Nationals.
Remember, there were a lot ofpeople that weren't really high on Bryce Harper

(25:11):
when he was with the Nats andwould say foolish things like, oh,
he's the most overrated player I think, hell, even players in the league.
Gzar Man. He was such ahated just crap, like just everything.
Just nobody liked him like it was. It was bizarre. But I
will tell you what. July ninth, tenth, and eleventh, Phillies Dodgers

(25:34):
in Philly. It sucks that it'sa Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. No,
it does not. That's great,even better. Yeah, gives me
an opportunity to get one of thosegames. That's there, we go,
there, we go, all right, Luke, one final play, one
winning play before we get out ofhere where we got winning play? Oh,
you threw me on the spot.I'm gonna take Harper two bases.

(25:55):
But at another game around the league, real quick on he pull these up.
I was talking Phillies. Just onewinning play for the Phillies. I'm
gonna take Harper two plus bases.Harper, Harper two plus bases, and
I am gonna go shorter home runas well. I think that's a pretty
good number right now. I'm goingboom to get off the schneid with his
over four performance. Give me overone and a half total basis. Everybody,
good luck on all your plays.Luke and I if you miss anything.

(26:19):
Always can be found at foxphl gamblerdot com. Be sure to follow
Luke at Arcandie Luke on socials andLuke and I Phills on socials as well.
Everybody, enjoy the rest of yourday, Go Phils.