Crowd Size Matters – Trump's Record Setting Rally in New Jersey - Top 3 Takeaways

We have historically seen a connection between outsized enthusiasm for presidential candidates resulting in outsized victories.

Episode Transcript

(00:01):
These are Brian Mudds top three takeaways. Yeah, happy Monday, as we
get going this week, and thenews today is likely to be dominated by
Michael Cohen that will be testifying begintestifying at the Trump trial in New York.
So yeah, so a lot we'llcome out of that. But my

(00:22):
top takeaways today have to do withTrump, but nothing to do with Cohen.
Crowd size matters. Crowd size matters, talk about Trump's record setting rally
in New Jersey for a moment.My top takeaway for you today is twenty
sixteen. What happened in New Jerseyover the weekend felt a lot like twenty

(00:47):
sixteen. Eighty two one hundred thousandpeople showing up for a political rally,
virtually unheard of. Eighty two onehundred thousand people, and this is according
to the apestimate. It's not Trump'steam, it's the apes cemate. Some
have said the actual number could haveexceeded one hundred thousand. But anyway,

(01:10):
somewhere in that vicinity, at avenue that the city's mayor said could only
hold forty thousand, that's remarkable.Eighty to one hundred thousand people showing up
for a political rally for Trump inthe blue state of New Jersey amid Trump's
New York state documents case. That'sa potentially defining statement in this election year

(01:38):
and perhaps is the sign of what'sto come in November. In twenty sixteen,
Donald Trump said a political record witha total of three hundred and twenty
three campaign rally events across the countrywithin his first year as a presidential candidate.
Got to go back and take alook at that. I knew it
was a lot. In sixty fivedays, three hundred and twenty three campaign

(02:01):
rally events. I mean, that'squite the schedule. Talk about endurance,
each seemingly building down the next.What were those campaign rally events? So
here's my I've got a few triviaquestions of my takeaways for you today.
Here's the first one. How manypeople attended Trump's first ever campaign rally?

(02:25):
Got anything here, Joel? Firstever campaign rally for Trump? This is
in twenty fifteen, just after heget announced. Thirty five thousand. Just
a shot in the dark. Thatis a shot in the dark. Yeah,
you've been pretty good at your guessesfrom I just figured it would be
lower than what we're talking about now. I don't know why Yeah, but

(02:47):
that's a big number for a veryfirst thing, you know, but it's
Trump. I don't know. Iguess recency bias. What's the number?
Three hundred? Trump's first ever camppain rally three hundred people at the Manchester
Community College of Manchester, New Hampshirein July of twenty fifteen. Things change

(03:08):
a bit from there. Still,the largest crowd estimated of that primary season
topped out of twenty nine thousand inCleveland. So one of the things you
mentioned, recency bias stole. Oneof the things that does tend to cloud
the imagination a bit is how unusualit is to get tens of thousands of

(03:30):
people at a campaign event. Someof it has to do with venue size
and other factors, but nevertheless it'snot the easiest thing to do. I
mean, I asked the Marlins abouttrying to get tens of thousands of people
to a sporting event. I meana lot of teams have struggled to do
that, let alone political candidates.So yes, the single biggest rally we

(03:53):
started at three hundred in the primaryseason in twenty fifteen, we ended at
twenty nine thousand. When Trump hadwrapped up the nomination in twenty sixteen.
By the general election cycle in twentysixteen, fifteen thousand plus had become the

(04:13):
norm. That was what a normalTrump rally looks like en route to the
victory. That didn't shock his supporters, that did shock the political establishment,
media establishment, most of the world. So here is my second trivia question
for you. What was the largestTrump rally recorded during the twenty sixteen election

(04:36):
cycle for Trump? See Joel shakinghis head. Now, I'm not feeling
dejected after the first go round here. I just can't remember a time where
there didn't look like there were tensof thousands of people in the crowd.
It's probably just by the time youstarted paying attention to maybe. Yeah.
So, if twenty nine thousand wasthe biggest of the pri mary season for

(05:00):
Trump, what was the biggest ofthat twenty sixteen general election cycle. I'm
gonna go with forty. Okay,this is this is pretty good. Your
conservative approach serves you better here,fifty thousand. The largest gathering at a
Trump rally in the twenty sixteen cyclewas fifty thousand. Now, it is

(05:23):
well known that the former and perhapsfuture president of the United States has a
pension for exaggeration, right, suchas saying that during the twenty sixteen presidential
election cycle he had drawn larger crowdsthan any presidential candidate had ever drawn.
Now, had you added them together, that most certainly would have been the
case across all those rallies I justtalked about and estimated one point four million

(05:46):
Americans attended a Trump rally during thattwenty sixteen cycle. That is more than
any any prior presidential candidate. However, at a single venue, Trump had
not drawn the most of all timeat a single event, he was number
three all time. This takes meto the final trivia question that I have

(06:06):
for you and my takeaways today,Which two presidential candidates had drawn a larger
crowd than Donald Trump prior to thisweekend's event. I see Joel shaking his
head. The only two that cometo mind is Kennedy and Reagan. Those
are good choices, but no,okay, FDR and Barack Obama. So

(06:32):
FDR drew one hundred and twenty thousand, also in New Jersey, by the
way, in nineteen thirty two.And who was number two? I gave
it away two thousand and eight,which is my second takeaway today. The
Big O in two thousand and eight. In Saint Louis in late October,
just prior to the presidential election,Barack Obama drew a crowd that attracted and

(06:54):
estimated eighty to one hundred thousand people. Now, obviously, when it comes
to presidential politics, size matters whenit comes to votes being cast, not
campaign rallies. While we'll never knowhow many people would have shown up at
Trump rallies in twenty twenty had itnot been for the pandemic, it is
safe to say that Trump would havehad crowds that would have been multiples larger

(07:15):
than say, Joe Biden would havehad. But then again, it's also
probably safe to say that had itnot been for the pandemic, Trump would
have been reelected as well. Buthere's the point. While crowd size at
a campaign event in May only mattersto the extent that a lot of people
are excited to show up to aTrump rally in New Jersey and May,

(07:38):
we have historically seen a connection betweenoutsized enthusiasm for presidential candidates result in outsized
victories. This is my third takeawayfor you today. We have seen the
connection I'll explain here. In nineteenthirty two, when FDR drew what still
remains as the largest crowd for acampaign event in history. He went on

(08:01):
to win the election over incumbent PresidentHerbert Hoover four seventy two to fifty nine
in the electoral College. In twothousand and eight, when Barack Obama drew
would have been the second largest crowdsin political history, he went on to
win the election three sixty five twoone seventy three. In twenty sixteen,
when Donald Trump drew the third largestknown crowds in presidential history, he won

(08:22):
three oh four to two twenty seven. Is commonality across three presidential election cycles
a small sample size? Yeah,it is. It's three elections. But
has crowd size within those three cyclesbeen predictive of the election outcome? Yeah?
And actually they have. And wasit the case that in each of

(08:43):
those margins of victories in the threeexamples, that they corresponded to the rank
of the crowd size? Yes?Yes, So in the context of twenty
twenty four, that's at least interesting. So is this as of my most
recent anatomy have a swing state upday? Last Wednesday I showed Trump appearing
to have a current three to twelveto twenty six vote advantage, a margin

(09:07):
of victory that is slightly larger thanhis twenty sixteen win. As I'm showing
the former and perhaps future president ofthe United States in a position to carry
the states he did in twenty sixteenplus Nevada. That's also interesting to me
because what we've seen historically and whatwe're seeing currently are all conngruing. Everything
is concruing here. Election Day isnow under six months away, which also

(09:31):
makes the enthusiasm for Trump a bitmore irrelevant as well. History suggests that
Donald Trump is well positioned to turnhis historic crown size into historic votes in
November. And if Donald Trump canturn out close to one hundred thousand in
New Jersey, a state that lostby sixteen points in the previous election,
imagine what that might mean. Trumpsaid at the at the rally, We're

(09:54):
going to officially play in the stateof New Jersey. We're going to win
New Jersey. If that comes evenclose to happening, Trump will win this
election bigly. And if he wereto actually carry New Jersey, he would
be staring at a win that wouldlikely come somewhere between Obama's two thousand and
eight win and FDRs nineteen thirty twowin, just as the crowd size would

(10:18):
suggest as possible, could be historyin the making.