Q&A of the Day – How Will the Presidential Debate Impact the Presidential Race?

Kamala Harris needs to gain at least 1.5% in the polls coming out of this debate to potentially be positioned to win this race.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Well, I'm going to question modest answers to questions you
won't here anywhere else. The Q and A of the
day reaction from our government to Brian mus show, I
don't get that. Today's Q and a how will the
presidential debate impact the presidential race? This is brought to
you by Melissa and Ashes. Check our collections. Each day
I feature a listener question that is sent by one

(00:23):
of these methods. You may email me Brian Mudd at
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or question for a future Q and A. Today's note

(00:45):
is this Brian. I'm the teacher who asked you about
the impact of the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump.
He addressed my question and the Q and A when
you mentioned Joe Biden would have needed a minimum of
five additional points of support coming out of the debate.
Tap be on track to win the election, which obviously
wasn't going to happen. I would love it if you
were to address the question again with Kamala Harris having

(01:06):
been installed as a Democrat's candidate. And so, the first
debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump turned out to
be arguably the most important in American history, and that
is because it's the first time a presidential debate effectively
ended the presidential campaign of a candidate who had clinched
their party's nomination. For that reason, it is safe to

(01:28):
say the last night's presidential debate between Kamala Harris and
Donald Trump won't prove to have been as significant. You know,
it's safe to say that both Kamala Harris and Donald
Trump will still be their party's presidential nominees a month
from today. But with that said, we did enter the
debate with enhanced stakes for one candidate, in particular, Kamala Harris.

(01:48):
Point has consistently showed large numbers of voters haven't felt
that they know enough about the current Vice president and
her positions on the issues. Butt's, of course, due in
part to her late entrance into the race after the
primary season, and due to our campaign strategy to not
hold press conferences and conduct interviews. Safety One canned CNN
interview which also came with her running made Tim Walls. So,

(02:14):
if we take a look at the range of impact
in the polls of a first presidential debate historically, what
we have seen the impact of those debates be is
this the smallest impact on record? Nineteen ninety two, that
debate the first debate with Bush and Clinton pro was
also in the mix there, but the change in the
polls was only zero point six percent, very little movement there.

(02:38):
The largest impact we have ever seen from a presidential
debate and moving the polls was five percent. It wasn't
this year's debate. It was the Obama Romney debate that
moved the polls five percent after the first debate. So
your range all time has been point six to five percent.

(03:01):
This probably will surprise him, folks. How big was the
impact in the polls coming out of the Biden Trump debate?
Actually only one point one percent, So yeah, Somewhat interestingly,
despite that debate having been the most significant arguably in history,
knocking by now the race, the actual polling impact was
below average. The average impact of a first presidential debate

(03:24):
has been two and a half percent two and a
half percent, so the Trump Biden debate had less than
half that impact, although the unique circumstances of that matchup
probably were the contributing reasons. Most Americans already had firm
opinions of the current and former president, making a little
room for movement. Additionally, Trump had already been pulling higher

(03:45):
than he had ever pulled heading into the debate, meaning
that he was already close to his ceiling in support.
At the time that Biden exited the race, Trump was
pacing a three point thirty eight to two hundred win
in the electoral college. So you fast forward to where
we are today and what's in play coming out of
the debate. My anatomy of his wing state series is

(04:05):
designed to account for all the specifics in this race,
and I will cover that in a separate story today,
But as of today's update, Trump is shown with a
two sixty two to two fifty seven voted advantage if
you just take a look at the real clear Politics
pulling average in individual states and take those polls at
face value. By the way, Pennsylvania now shown as being tied. However,

(04:29):
when adjusting for the errors within these swing state polls
over the prior to elections, that lead grows to a
two ninety to two forty eight voted advantage for Trump.
So Kamala Harris is currently pulling one point worse than
Hillary Clinton when she lost to Trump in twenty sixteen.
Given that context, broadly speaking, Kamala Harris needs to gain

(04:51):
a minimum of one and a half percent in the
polls coming out of this debate to potentially be positioned
to win this race. Likely or especially when we started
taking a look at the individual states and what's happened,
but a minimum of one and a half towards Harris's
favor Now again, the historic average has been two and
a half percent, and with perception being that she had

(05:13):
the better night, this is possible. So we will see
how this plays in the coming days. One number that
is worth watching as well, not just that, but also
what we are seeing in individual swing states for example,
another important consideration. Many of these states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania,
and Virginia are or within the next week will have

(05:36):
voting underway. And so what that means is where we
stand today as we are under eight weeks away, is
actually far more relevant than it had been in previous
presidential elections. Historically, people continue to vote earlier than they
had historically, many of the people sampled in polls going forward,

(05:56):
they're just going to be telling pollsters who they intend
to vote for, but actually a candidate that they've already
voted for him. And so that makes the timing of
last night's debate at the onset of what has become
an election season far more important in terms of momentum
heading into election day. So we shall see, I mean,
for now, that may be the last major catalyst of

(06:17):
this debate. You know, obviously a lot of time for
things that could still happen, but in terms of the nomes,
there are no other knowns on a calendar right now
that could meaningfully move this Rice