Q&A of the Day – The ’Key’ to Allan Lichtman's Prediction of a Kamala Harris Win

Now there’s something that might have stood out to you. The room for subjectivity within his keys.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
I'm going to quick motest answers to questions you won't
here anywhere else. The Q and A of the day,
reaction from our government, the Brian musshow I don't get that.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
Today's Q and A the key to Alan Lichtmann's prediction
of a Kamala Harris win. This is brought to you
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You may email me Brian Mudd at iHeartMedia dot com,
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(00:36):
to w JNO or viro Patriot. Inside of the iHeartRadio app,
follow us. Look for the little microphone button. See it,
tap it. You may lay down a message right there,
maybe something for future Q and A. Today's note is
actually something that has been asked me by several people.
I've had numerous people come up to me for the

(00:58):
past few days, right down to my wife, and asked
me about American University professor Alan Lichtman's prediction of a
Kamala Harris win this year's presidential election. So let's get
to it as we are on the precipice of what
appears likely to be the first and final presidential debate

(01:18):
on Tuesday, of course, after the other first and final
for Joe Biden's career, one of the most widely sided
election prognosticators has decided it effectively doesn't matter, because, after all,
it isn't one of his thirteen keys to determining who
he believes the next president of the United States will be.

(01:39):
Following Lickman's calling of the race for Harris last week,
the story spread like wildfire, and that's for two reasons.
First is that, in fact, Lickman has been accurate in
predicting presidential election outcomes, about as accurate as anybody who's
been doing it over the past forty years. And the
prediction of a Harris win is precisely what the mainstream

(02:01):
news media over ninety percent of whom are Democrats ninety
six percent, to be direct, It's what they wanted to hear.
Lickman has correctly, so let's just talk about him for
a second. He has correctly predicted nine of the prior
ten presidential elections, including Donald Trump's twenty sixteen win. The

(02:23):
one he missed was the closest of the bunch George W.
Bush's win over al Gore in two thousand. So is
the election a faa complete as Lickman and the news
media might have you think. Has always got two sides
of stories one side of fact. So let's evaluate the facts,
starting with Licmin's methodology. Al Linchmn's methodology based on his

(02:43):
premise that there are thirteen keys and determining which candidate
will win the presidency whichever candidate holds the most keys,
they went. The way this works is that the keys
are true false answers. If the answers are true, the
candidate of the incumbent president wins. If they're false, the
challenger wins. These are the keys, along with whom he

(03:06):
thinks holds them. The first is party mandate. After the
midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the
US House of Representatives than it did after the prior
midterm elections. That is false, which means that is a
key for Trump. According to like them, Okay, the contest.

(03:27):
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
That is true according to Lakeman, which is a key
for Harris in the incumbent NeXT's incumbency. The incumbent party

(03:48):
candidate is the sitting president. That is false, So that
is a key for Trump.

Speaker 1 (03:58):
Next up.

Speaker 2 (03:59):
Third party There is no significant third party or independent
campaign that is true. That is a key for Harris.
Now again, I'm giving you Lickdin's answers on these. Short
term economy, the economy is not in recession during the
election campaign. This is cited as true and a key

(04:24):
for Harris. Long term economy, real per capita economic growth
during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the
previous two terms. That is cited as true and a
key for Harris. Policy change the incumbent administration affects major

(04:47):
changes in national policy. That is cited by Lickdin as
being true and a key for Harris. Next up. Social
unrest is no sustained social unrest during the term. That
is cited as true and a key for Harris. Joel's

(05:09):
reaction says I'm doing this or classic by the way.
The next key scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by
major scandal. That is cited as true and a key
for Harris. Joel is now all right cracking up? Are
you saying you might answer some of these different than

(05:30):
Litman died. I can't say what I'm thinking, just that
you might not agree with his own keys. Safe to
go with that, Okay, all right, very good. So next
key incumbent charisma. The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or

(05:51):
a national hero that is cited as false. So it's
a key for Trump. Yeah, you did not go.

Speaker 1 (06:00):
Sure about where that one was going, Harris Man, what
charisma she's got?

Speaker 2 (06:08):
Challenger charisma the challenging party candidate is not charismatic or
a national hero that is cited as true. In a
key for Harris the foreign and then get the last
two keys. He has not issued a determination on foreign

(06:30):
and military failure, says the administration suffers no major failure
in foreigner military affairs. Lickman has not provided an answer
to that. I know, Joel, I know what you're thinking,
like Afghanistan didn't happen and everything subsequent to it. I
understand this is Alan Lickman. I manage see what I'm

(06:51):
doing by simply explaining his process and his answers is
answering everybody whoever asked this question of me, and Joel
was one of them. But we really don't have to
go in correct, it's self explanatory at this point. And
the final one foreign and military success. The incumbent administration
achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. That

(07:14):
is also cited as not being determined by Lickman. But
it doesn't matter because he gave so many keys to
Harris that Trump couldn't win anyway at this point. Okay,
So even with yes, those two keys beyond undecided, Harris
has eight keys, according to Lickman, and thus the presidency.
Now here's the thing that that stood out to Joel

(07:38):
probably stood out to you. The room is there for
extensive subjectivity within his keys, right, extensive subjectivity. His methodology
is interesting, and again it's been highly predictive of outcomes.
But not all the answers this cycle are as cut
and dried as they have been in the past.

Speaker 1 (07:57):
Right.

Speaker 2 (07:58):
In fact, almost every one of Harris's keys are questionable.
For example, it's true that Harris didn't have serious competition
for the nomination, but why was that? It wasn't because
she won with voters? Was it that? One of all
the absurdities, and they're all absurd, Nothing to me is

(08:21):
more absurd than that one because she gets a key
for not even winning a single vote with a single
primary voter. That's a win. There's nobody she'd not even
want a state, and she gets a key over Trump
for that, who just waxed the entire Republican field seriously

(08:47):
in two presidential bids. She's not even won a state.
But that's a key. So we're an unprecedented territory with
how Harris became the Democrat nomine How he could give
Harris credit for that is absurd on its face. Lickman
should just throw that key out in the cycle. Regarding

(09:08):
the key with the lack of a serious third party challenger,
I think this one is almost as absurd. Litman hands
that to Harris, right, But think about this, why is
there not a serious third party challenger. There's not a
significant third party challenger because this significant third party challenger

(09:36):
recently dropped out of the race and endorsed Donald Trump.
And that's a win for Harris. Not the fact that
there was somebody who was pulling in a significant amount
of the vote sufficient to meaningfully impact the outcome of
this presidential race. But there's not now because he endorsed
in his campaigning for Donald Trump, and that goes to

(09:58):
Harris universe and yes, then there's the economy. Have we
been in by the definition of recession? No, although it's
possible that we're at the onset of one currently, does
the average American think we are? Yes, fifty six percent

(10:20):
of Americans think the US economy is in a recession,
fifty six percent. Linckman's awarding the Pikita Harris on this
is technically correct, what also ignores the reality of the
average Americans perception If perception is reality, and look, it's
the perception of voters, and now LINKMN who will decide
this thing. He's dead wrong. Harris is awarded both keys

(10:42):
related to the economy due to the performance of the
Biden Harris administration. Only thirty nine percent of voters approve
of the economy under this administration. It is hard to
emphasize the extent of the absurdity of Harris winning both
economic keys over Trump. So the perception with voters is
the exact opposite, and it's not even close. So in

(11:04):
other words, I could take Lickman's keys right now come
up with a different result than he did. And it's
notable that the one time that Linckman has been wrong
was when it was when he aired in favor of
the Democrat beating out a Republican right, so that potentially
hits at some implicit biases coming through, whether it is
subjectivity and the answers to his keys. As always, you

(11:27):
got two sides of stories, one side of facts, and
those happened to be the facts on this integrity, honesty
facts the Brian Mutt Show.

Speaker 1 (11:40):
What do you have for some local headlines of FAU
beginning it's series of in person listening sessions to hear
from students, faculty, in staff regarding its search for a
permanent president. You're going to have some in person hearings
today in Boca Jupiter and Davy. I've got the tails
up at Florida News on our website and SpaceX planning
the launch of a story commission for early tomorrow morning

(12:01):
Polaris dawn. It is expected from Kennedy Space Center three
thirty eight am.