The Anatomy of a Swing State – Harris vs. Trump – September 11th

What this illustrates is a tight race as of today with an election that could hinge on which direction Pennsylvania goes.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Faith Freedom to Florida. This is the Brian bud Show,
the anatomy of a swing state, the Heroes versus Trump matchup.
As we are now under eight weeks away from election
day and what is likely to be the last presidential
debate of this cycle, I know there's conversation out there
about potentially another one happening. We shall see nothing on

(00:21):
the calendar, and I personally would be surprised that's possible.
But we do and now have voting under way in
multiple states, starting with an important state in North Carolina,
and reactions to last night's presidential debate as they roll
in and as they turn into point results, we'll see
where the ball lands over the next week. That will
be really instructive. But meanwhile, in framing this series, I

(00:44):
do so by going back to election Day twenty twenty,
taking a look at the Real Clear Politics point average
nationally for the first kind of temperature check. On election
Day twenty twenty, Biden was shown with a seven point
two percent advantage over Trump. As of yesterday, Harris was
shown with a one point one percent advantage over Trump.
So a week ago I had suggested that the Kamala

(01:07):
Harris is consistent is sent in the polls appeared to
have peaked a week later. We saw that was the
case at least prior to last night's debate. Harris's lead
entering the debate was actually back to where it was
prior to the DNC. So the bit of a balance
you had to receive there was gone. And what we

(01:27):
have seen is that Trump has been running six point
one percent better off most recently than he had been
on election Day twenty twenty, and so that is that's meaningful.
If you take a look at the context of swing states,
you would expect, all right, well, Trump would hold on
to the states that he won four years ago if
he's running a lot better than he had been at

(01:49):
that point. And then the question is, all right, what
about the states that he lost within this margin that
he's he's running better? And these are the states that
Biden and Harris won by six point one points or
less in twenty twenty, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
So then I want to drill down a bit further

(02:11):
on those states and take a look at what's going
on within them. If you just straight up take the
real clear politics point average in those states. As of yesterday,
Harris was positioned with leads in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin,
with Trump showing leads in Arizona. In Georgia and Pennsylvania
shown as a tie, and there are two significant changes

(02:32):
over the past week. The first Nevada that have been
tied last week was most recently shown as a hold
for Harris. The much bigger move is that Pennsylvania, which
a week ago was showing a slight lead for Harris,
is exactly tied most recently and as a result, if
you just take again the straight up pulling in these states,

(02:52):
Trump was shown as of yesterday with a two sixty
two to two point fifty seven vote advantage in the
electoral college, with Pennsylvania's nineteen votes unallocated. Then, if you
take it one step further and you adjust for the
errors in the polls, we know the polls have been
off and a lot of these swing states with Trump
and vaults. Trump has performed over the prior to election

(03:13):
cycles in line with what the polls said would happen
said would happen in Arizona, he has underperformed his polling
in Georgia, and Nevada. He has outperformed his polling in Michigan, Pennsylvania,
and Wisconsin. So if you adjust for all the errors
within those states over the prior to cycles, what you
would come up with is a two ninety to two

(03:36):
forty eight vote advantage for Trump prior to that debate.
So what that illustrated is a very close race heading
into that debate, where a little movement can go a
long way. So again, this next week going to be
really significant in terms of what the results are coming
out of that debate, if it ended up moving the

(03:59):
race eificant lee or even just enough to be able
to show a different outcome. So we'll report back in
a week. All right.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
A couple of Florida headlines. Martin County commission wants to
renegotiate its deal with Brightline. That move yesterday came after
Stuart City Commissioner's Monday and I voted to rescind its
agreements with Brightline in the county to build a train station.
County commissioners, well, they made a motion to pull the
item off the agenda. And Florida paying tribute to those
killed on nine to eleven, twenty three years ago. Today

(04:29):
Governor D. Santis, directing flags fly at half staff, says,
our country stands united in remembrance of the lives lost
on that day, including many who demonstrated selfless courage and
responding to these evil acts. There a number of ceremonies
being held in the Palm beaches and Treasure coasts. You'll
find them at Florida News on our website. Brian