The Trump vs. Harris Presidential Debate (Probably) Matters More Than Most...Again – Top 3 Takeaways

It’s go time...for real this time.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
These are Brian Mudd's Top three takeaways and what a day.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
The Trump versus Harris presidential debate probably matters more than
most again. You know, it was the headline to my
Top three Takeaways on June twenty seventh, the original debate day,
that the Biden versus Trump presidential debate probably mattered more

(00:31):
than most historically had Holy count that ever turn out
to be true, right, So my top takeaway for today
is that it's go time for real this time.

Speaker 1 (00:44):
Yeah.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
So what I did in kind of setting up for
today is I did go back through everything from the
first presidential debate, and one of the things I found
I was ahead of my time. You know how Tim
Walls ended up making everything about this election weird, right

(01:07):
because JD. Vans is weird and and and Donald Trump
is weird. The fact that I hosted the white Dudes
for Harris thing that that's not weird. My ties to
the commies in China over a long window, that's no weird.

Speaker 1 (01:25):
I'm not just kind of like a goof guy jont
not none of that.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
No. But now, in my Top three takeaways, before Tim
Walls was even on the radars, being a part of
the conversation about the presidential race this year, I said this,
I said, how weird is it that it's not even
Independent Independence Day and we're having a presidential debate.

Speaker 1 (01:48):
It's very weird.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
How odd is it that we've not had the political
conventions where each party's candidate is actually decided prior to
having a presidential debate?

Speaker 1 (01:59):
It's very odd.

Speaker 2 (02:00):
How strange is it that Joe Biden showered with his daughter,
By the way, that is still awfully strange, And that's
aside from the point. But anyway, the answer to this
question is that the whole thing so weird, so odd
that we were having the debate back then, because no

(02:21):
debate had ever taken place before the fourth of July.
The political conventions were actually before September twenty first. September
twenty first, prior to the cycle. The earliest presidential debate
that was the first Reagan Carter debate in eighty So
tonight's presidential debate the earliest in American history by eighty

(02:43):
six days. Okay, So that was then, and here we
are now with the ability to add to the rundown
of weirdness and oddities of this election season. How weird
is it that Donald Trump is set to debate a
second Democrat presidential candidate in the cycle.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
It's extremely weird. Ever happened? How odd is it.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
That the Democrats presidential nominee in two presidential campaigns no less,
never won a single state in a primary. Boy, that
is very odd. It had never happened since the major
political parties opened the nomination process to voters.

Speaker 1 (03:19):
How strange is Kamlo's cackle?

Speaker 2 (03:22):
Fine, it's pretty strange.

Speaker 1 (03:28):
That shows Joel's depiction of it. Let it be known,
Brian wants me to do.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
That, So I'll let you decide, and you can decide
whether Joel's depiction of Kamo's cackle is weirder or stranger
than the Kamo's actual cackle. But anyway, that could be
the drinking game tonight because you know, think about the
Kamala cackle. What is the Kamala cackle? That's what she
does when she's like, oh crap, what do I say here?

(03:55):
Like when she somebody asked her something, she has no
idea what to answer back with. So it'll be interesting.
You know how prepared she is. You know whether Donald Brazil,
who now works for ABC, fed her at the questions
in have answer to this thing. It'll be interesting to
see if she cackles. If she does, you know that
she's uncomfortable and she's trying to buy time.

Speaker 1 (04:17):
So I think there's actually a chance to go either way.

Speaker 2 (04:19):
You could be stone cold sober at the end of
this debate, or you could be hammered inside the first
half hour. That could happen if you do the drinking
game with Kamalo's cackle. But anyway, since the first debate
with the first candidate and the second debate with the
second candidate, something else happened that has never happened in
American presidential history. Yeah, Donald Trump shot an assassination attempt,

(04:44):
and tonight's presidential debate, which is the second of this cycle,
is still happening eleven days earlier than the earliest presidential
debate to have happened prior to this cycle. But nevertheless,
no matter how weird Tim Walls, Tamala Harris and this
election cycle, maybe it is go time for real time

(05:04):
this time. Just as Donald Trump, not Joe Biden now
the presidential race during the first debate, he's entering this
debate in the position to effectively be able to do
so with a strong showing against the Democrats backup candidate
in this debate. As for the vice president and two
presidential campaigns, Kamala Harris has never won so much as

(05:27):
a single state in the presidential primary, let alone a
presidential debate. Since being handed the Democrat party nomination, She's
not done any press conferences. Only one can't interview with CNN,
and that included her emotional support animal. As CNN's Scott
Jennings said, many Americans just either aren't familiar with her

(05:47):
positions on the issues because while she's done her level
best to avoid addressing any issues, and or they're confused
about what her position on the issues is today and
whether she's changed her position on them since like yesterday,
since flip flopping on everything from building the border wall
to banning plastic straws, you name it. Rasmussen's most recent

(06:08):
point on her positions is interesting. Rasmussen asked voters about
Kamala Harris's flip flop positions, like which do you believe
of you know her stances on these issues. Nearly two

(06:32):
thirds of voters believe that what her position was prior
to becoming the Democrats nominee is her real position on
the issues. Think about this for a moment. How interesting
is it She's out there, you know, so I'm going
to ban plastic straws, or I'm now in favor of
the border wall, or whatever it is that she makes
up Today, two thirds of voters say, no, I don't

(06:58):
believe what she's saying today. I believe that she really
stands for what she said before she was the Democrat
Party nominee. Tells you that two thirds of Americans are
not buying it, speaking of the polls and the issues, which,
by the way, part of this is if there's any
kind of credibility in the moderation of the debate, they're
going to hammer home on this whole thing about you

(07:20):
used to be here, you are now here? Which is
it and why? And I mean that should be most
of the line of questioning. At her second takeaway today,
let's look at what changed since the first debate Other
than the Democrats presidential candidate. On June twenty seventh, the
dates of the first presidential debate, Donald Trump averaged a

(07:43):
national point lead and the Real Clear Politics point average
of one and a half percent entering today's debate. That's
one to an advantage for Kamala Harris of one point
three percent. So broadly, the Democrats game of switcherou has
worked to tilt the race by two point eight percent
in their But what we know about the presidential polls
in Donald Trump's third presidential election is twofold one. Donald

(08:07):
Trump doesn't need to win the national popular vote to
win the most electoral College votes. Two of the last
three Republican presidential wins, including Trump's in twenty sixteen, came
without winning the popular vote. Two most polls commonly undersampled
Donald Trump's support, So on that note, in the real
Clear Average Politics average of polls, Trump is running six

(08:27):
point two points better today against Harrs than he was
against Joe Biden four years ago, and one point four
points better than he was against Hillary Clinton eight years ago.
If Donald Trump is running substantially better than he was
when he narrowly lost, which he is, and consistently better

(08:50):
than he was win he won, which he is, in reality,
he's already positioned to win. Donald Trump right now is
positioned to win. Trump puts in a strong debate performance
tonight that cements the level of support the polls suggest
that he already has, he's probably going to win. Conversely,
given how Kamala is currently running compared to her predecessors,

(09:13):
but she's in need of hitting a home run. So
this is really the bait landscape here. Trump needs to
not make mistakes, needs to not step in it, needs.

Speaker 1 (09:24):
To have a solid performance.

Speaker 2 (09:26):
If he has a good or better performance, then I
mean great for him. Kamala pretty much needs his swing
for the fences here. She's really got to move with
the needle. An awful lot has changed since the first debate,
including the Democrats candidate. What hasn't is that Trump remains
the favorite to win, literally in the betting markets. I

(09:47):
think this is fascinating for everything that has changed, because
it feels like half a lifetime ago, almost like it
was a different election cycle when the first debate took
place and Joe Biden was the candidate and everything else
now right. Trump's odds winning heading into the first debate
with Joe Biden were shown to be fifty one point
seven percent. Today they're at fifty one.

Speaker 1 (10:09):
And a half. Isn't that interesting?

Speaker 2 (10:12):
And in that respect, it's a case of the more
that this race has changed, the more it's remained the
same that takes us to the rules of the debate
third takeaway. Much like the first debate, there will be
no studio audience. There will be only a pen, paper
and water allowed on stage. No pre written notes will
be allowed, nor any sitting. The debate is scheduled for

(10:35):
ninety minutes. There will be two commercial breaks, though neither
candidate will be allowed to consult their political teams. And
then there's the rule that was the biggest point of
contention for Tamala Harris's team. A candidate's microphone will only
be turned on when it's their time to speak. While
it was in play during the first debate, Harris's team
attempted to get rid of that already agreed upon rule

(10:56):
for the ABC News debate and hopes that Kamala could
interrupt and try to get under his skin. During the debate,
answers will be limited to two minutes each, with two
minute rebuttals and an additional minute for follow ups. Only
the moderators will be able to ask questions and about them.
The moderators they are David Muir, he of good Hair.

(11:18):
So Joel, your your preference is still newsome. It's close,
but I was I'm still going to go with something
and the.

Speaker 1 (11:23):
Battle of hair. You're going with Gavin over Muir.

Speaker 2 (11:26):
All right, okay, me, I do think that you have
to put more time and product into the news and
do so just as long as you know that going on,
So David Muir of good hair, which, by the way,
I would side with me your's hair over Newsom's just
but anyway. He said this following Joe Biden's speech announcing

(11:46):
that he was exiting the presidential race tonight. Gratitude is
the word for so many people in this country pointing
to Joe Biden now and calling him a patriot who
stepped in when democracy needed it.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
What.

Speaker 2 (12:09):
I don't know about you, but that was what I
was thinking when Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Gratitude,
patriot who stepped in when democracy needed it? What But
that was mrs take on the news of Biden dropping out,
and now he's moderating a debate featuring the candidate that

(12:30):
he implied democracy was rescued from.

Speaker 1 (12:34):
That's fun.

Speaker 2 (12:35):
And then there's Lindsay Davis, who has repeatedly over the
year suggested through her lineup questioning that Donald Trump is
a racist. During the twenty twenty election cycle, when she
asked Stacy Abrams whether this is the quote President Trump
is a white supremacist or a racist.

Speaker 1 (12:54):
That's not fair and balance to you, Brian Well, she
did offer two choices.

Speaker 2 (13:03):
Because I mean, that is naturally an appropriate question to ask,
especially Stacy Abrams, I mean, please, or just last month,
just last month that the DNC, when Lindsay asked Michigan
Governor Gretchen Whitmer this, she said, many people are aware
that a month ago in how Howl, Michigan, KKK protesters

(13:24):
marched in the streets with white robes on and suggested
that they support Donald Trump. I'm curious if you make
anything about that connection in him Trump going in particularly
to Howell tomorrow. Oh okay, So clearly it's Lindsay who
wanted to try to make something out of that.

Speaker 1 (13:45):
At the same time, Lindsay.

Speaker 2 (13:47):
On air called Kamala Harris's VP win in twenty twenty
profound and powerful. That's what she had to say, is
that her becoming Kamala hair Is becoming the vice president
was profound and powerful. But then again, this is all
part for the course of ABC News. According to the
Media Research Center, ABC World News Tonight. That program has

(14:11):
provided the most biased news coverage of any network in
the MRC's study from July twenty first, when Kamala Harris
entered the race, through September sixth, one hundred percent of
ABC News of their coverage of Kamala Harris was positive
one hundred percent. During the same time, ninety three percent

(14:32):
of the news coverage of Donald Trump was negative. A good, good,
solid news organization, right there, ABC News. Uh huh, but hey,
CNN's debate moderators tapperan Bash had previously like in Trump
to Hiller and actually managed to moderate a credible debate,
So maybe all hope is not lost, although you could
also go with the idea that they really were just

(14:54):
trying to throw Joe overboard, which is the reason that
they did so credibly manage that first to anyway, Donald Trump,
he won the debate coin toss for tonight. He opted
to provide the final closing statement to the debate, and
Kamala Harris chose to stand on the right side of
the debate stage, which means she will be on the

(15:16):
left of your screen.