June 12, 2025 • 12 mins
On Wednesday we received May’s consumer inflation rate which turned out to be lower than April’s inflation rate was only a third of what economists had predicted.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Brian Mundshow podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be to visit Braymanmotorcars dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to The Brian Munt Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Where is it? I don't see it. I thought it
was supposed.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
To be.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Everywhere, like the biggest thing in our lives. Where's the inflation, Joey,
have you seen the inflation?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Hang on? I think it's under the garbage. Can't hear?
That's about right?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It's about right, So yeah, where's the inflation?
Speaker 4 (00:43):
Done?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Deal with China? Trump's not tired of winning. I'm not either.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I'm not tired of winning even a little bit. My
top takeaway for you today is that Trump was right
about everything. It was right about everything.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
We had a good relationship, and I just wish him well.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
That was as Trump taking the high road there.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
That was Trump responding to his thoughts about Elon Musk.
We had a good relationship. I wish him. Elon has
backtracked to the point where he's essentially apologized for his
recent behavior towards President Trump posting on x I regret
some of my posts about President Donald Trump last week.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
They went too far.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Now I'm still not sure if he's ready to like
break out that Trump was right about everything hat once again,
but he should.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
There is a report that the two did speak on
Monday night for a little while.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Yeah, I'm not aware of that circumstance, So maybe it happened,
maybe it didn't. But regardless, if you remember back to
win Literation Day freaked everyone out. I watched old freak
ount led to economists saying inflation would get carried away, right,
(02:08):
it was gonna be terrible. You remember to what I
said just a few days after Liberation Day and my
top three takeaways from April seven. So this is the Monday.
Remember Liberation Day was a Wednesday. I walked you through
why this guy was not falling Thursday and Friday, and
(02:29):
then on Monday, during the peak of the stock markets
full fledged freak out, I offered this and explaining that
the immediate twenty percent so off in the stock market
was a historically great bind opportunity. By saying just these
few things, I asked, if you're a believer in this country,
(02:52):
and if you believe that this country will be better
off by the time that President Trump is done with
his presidency than it is today. And I mentioned that
if you answer those two questions with yes, the rest
is very easy to digest because there is this huge,
important fact that every major stock market sell off in
(03:15):
American history has proven to be a historically great time
to invest in American companies. And so it was with
that that I ended up all chips on the table.
It's very rare. There are only three times I have
made just ubiquitous calls in the market, and one of
(03:37):
them was right before the bottom fell out and the
financial crisis back in two thousand and eight. There are
very few times that I will go on and say, look,
the market is all wrong about this. This was one
of those times, and the stock market's complete recovery happened
(03:57):
even quicker than I thought it would. But it wasn't
just that we've kind of talked about this that aspect
of things previously.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
There's also this other part of it.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
I'm just illustrating how conventional wisdom immediately following the tariff
announcement was wrong.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
On inflation.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
That morning, April seventh, I mentioned this to you, I said,
I assure you this will be net deflationary.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And here's why.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
What is the biggest expense for almost all Americans? And
I asked you, Joel, I said, Joel, what is the
biggest expense for almost all Americans?
Speaker 3 (04:39):
And I don't think I had it, but today you did.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
You're right.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
It was housing.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Yes, you were right, and you don't even remember being right.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I'm not right often enough to try to.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Take your correct answer and make it wrong in retrospect.
And I'm setting you up for a win twice and
you're like, I got boyed this one. No, you're on it.
And then I also asked you this question. What's the
second biggest expense for almost all Americans?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
By the way, you were also right about this one.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
It was transportation, that's right.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Yeah, those are almost always the two biggest expenses for people,
the roof over your head and what it takes to
get from point A to point B. And I pointed
out that the cost of those things had already significantly declined,
and at that point, we're declining in real time along
(05:33):
with the financial markets. Talking about the mortgage rate for
a thirty year fix that was over seven percent, the
day that Trump became president, and the price of a
barrel of oil having declined by over twenty percent since the.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Time that Trump became president.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
And so when you have the cost of financing, we
have the cost of fuel, and fuel impacts the cost
of everything that's embedded in literally the cost of all products,
because even transportation costs to get goods to stores or
to deliver stuff to your home if you order online,
all that is embedded in the pricing. So you have
(06:14):
those big decreases that is going to more than offset
just about anything else is going to happen nominally with
the impact of the tariffs themselves, and so on that note,
My second takeaway for you today.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, so what inflation.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Here's your Labor Secretary Laurie Chavez Dreamer yesterday speaking about
the consumer price index report that came in exceedingly low.
Speaker 4 (06:44):
I can tell you that what's working is working now.
Prices have gone down. We're seeing gas prices go down,
We're seeing grocery prices go down. People are able to
keep more of their hard earned dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Sure enough.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So yesterday we did receive the May consumer inflation rate,
which turned out to be lower than April's inflation raight.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So here it is.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
You got the ramp up in tariffs, right, and what happens.
The inflation rate was lower in May than it was
in April, and it was only a third, only one third.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Of what economists had predicted.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
In other words, the economists that scared everybody, that freaked
everybody out, that your GSS news media put everywhere. They
were two thirds wrong about this. Two thirds again really,
only you know a batter in baseball can be right
(07:41):
thirty three percent of the time, can get a hit
thirty three percent of the time, and be a good player. Economists,
it's some remarkable these people have jobs. Let me break
this down for you in a way that you will
not get or hear or have percented anywhere else. But
is one hundred percent the story on the ground. Here
(08:02):
are the monthly inflation rates. Okay, so not the annualized
rate when you average twelve the trailing twelve months together,
but just the trend three months is considered a trend
in financial markets anytime you have a quarter, right, So
the final three months of the Biden administration, the inflation
rate was point three percent, than point four percent, than
(08:24):
point five percent, By the way, do you notice a
trend there?
Speaker 2 (08:27):
The inflation was getting.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Worse save one up, Yes.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Every single month on Biden's way out of the office.
So one it was higher than we would want because
I'll mean to make this overly complicated, but what are
we trying to get to?
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Two percent or lower inflation?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Right?
Speaker 1 (08:44):
And even the lowest of those point three, you multiply
that by twelve months when you get three point six.
So we went from there up to where it was
at six percent pacing by the time Biden left office again.
But anyway, the annualized inflation rate the final three months
(09:05):
of Biden came out to four point eight percent.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
That's where the trend was.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Now here is the rate through the first four months
of the Trump administration. Remember Biden was point three point
four point five Trump point two negative point one point
two point one last month. Do you know what that
averages out to the four month trend of the Trump
(09:31):
administration an annualized inflation rate of one point two percent
one point two When was the last time that inflation
was bulow two percent? When Trump was last president of
the United States In January twenty twenty one, the overall
annualized inflation rate is still pacing two point four percent
(09:53):
currently because you still have eight of those Biden months
that are factored in with the four of the Trump
and the trailing twelve month average. But what's been clear
is in the early going of Trump two point zero,
once again, economists have been dead wrong, dead wrong about Trump,
his policies, the impact the economy. Trump is demonstrably right
(10:18):
in making America great again. And as I like to say,
I've also not made a career out of being wrong.
And so when I made those two calls that particular day,
I knew the ramification I'm saying that it was a
historically great time to be binding stocks. I knew the
ramifications of saying I assure you this will be net deflationary.
(10:41):
Here we are my third takeaway for you today. Done deal,
done deal. Treasury Secretary's got present.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yesterday.
Speaker 5 (10:49):
I have just returned to the middle of last night
from successful negotiations in London with a Chinese delegation that
will not only stabilize the economic relationship between our two
economies but make it more balanced.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Right, So, yesterday, following several consecutive days and trade negotiations
with China China. President Trump posted this on Truth all Caps.
Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval
with President She and me full magnets. Any necessary rare
(11:24):
earths will be supplied upfront by China. Likewise, we will
provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students
using our colleges and universities, which has always been good
with me. We are getting a total of fifty five
percent tariffs. China is getting ten percent. Relationship is excellent.
(11:45):
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Okay, So
shortly thereafter China confirmed Trump's truth Cover Secretary Howard Latnek
later confirmed that tariff levels will not change from here,
and explaining the fifty five percent that Trump menchem there
is a thirty percent across the board tariff and Chinese goods,
with an additional twenty five percent that for the products
(12:07):
that already had that twenty five percent tariff in place
from the first Trump administration. So the pieces are falling
in place perfectly, and aside from working out some of
the additional trade deals which will likely be coming rather
quickly from here, all that is left is putting the
finishing touches on the OBBB.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Are you down with the OBBB?
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Joel sometimes okay,
The Brian Mundshow podcast is driven by Brayman Motor Cars.
My family is a Brayman Motor Cars family. Your family
should be to visit Braymanmotorcars dot com.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Welcome to The Brian Munt Show and thank you for listening.
It's time for today's top three takeaways. Helpful, useful, repeatable.
Where is it? I don't see it. I thought it
was supposed.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
To be.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Everywhere, like the biggest thing in our lives. Where's the inflation, Joey,
have you seen the inflation?
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Hang on? I think it's under the garbage. Can't hear?
That's about right?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
It's about right, So yeah, where's the inflation?
Speaker 4 (00:43):
Done?
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Deal with China? Trump's not tired of winning. I'm not either.
Speaker 1 (00:49):
I'm not tired of winning even a little bit. My
top takeaway for you today is that Trump was right
about everything. It was right about everything.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
We had a good relationship, and I just wish him well.
Speaker 2 (01:03):
That was as Trump taking the high road there.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
That was Trump responding to his thoughts about Elon Musk.
We had a good relationship. I wish him. Elon has
backtracked to the point where he's essentially apologized for his
recent behavior towards President Trump posting on x I regret
some of my posts about President Donald Trump last week.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
They went too far.
Speaker 1 (01:29):
Now I'm still not sure if he's ready to like
break out that Trump was right about everything hat once again,
but he should.
Speaker 3 (01:37):
There is a report that the two did speak on
Monday night for a little while.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
Yeah, I'm not aware of that circumstance, So maybe it happened,
maybe it didn't. But regardless, if you remember back to
win Literation Day freaked everyone out. I watched old freak
ount led to economists saying inflation would get carried away, right,
(02:08):
it was gonna be terrible. You remember to what I
said just a few days after Liberation Day and my
top three takeaways from April seven. So this is the Monday.
Remember Liberation Day was a Wednesday. I walked you through
why this guy was not falling Thursday and Friday, and
(02:29):
then on Monday, during the peak of the stock markets
full fledged freak out, I offered this and explaining that
the immediate twenty percent so off in the stock market
was a historically great bind opportunity. By saying just these
few things, I asked, if you're a believer in this country,
(02:52):
and if you believe that this country will be better
off by the time that President Trump is done with
his presidency than it is today. And I mentioned that
if you answer those two questions with yes, the rest
is very easy to digest because there is this huge,
important fact that every major stock market sell off in
(03:15):
American history has proven to be a historically great time
to invest in American companies. And so it was with
that that I ended up all chips on the table.
It's very rare. There are only three times I have
made just ubiquitous calls in the market, and one of
(03:37):
them was right before the bottom fell out and the
financial crisis back in two thousand and eight. There are
very few times that I will go on and say, look,
the market is all wrong about this. This was one
of those times, and the stock market's complete recovery happened
(03:57):
even quicker than I thought it would. But it wasn't
just that we've kind of talked about this that aspect
of things previously.
Speaker 2 (04:05):
There's also this other part of it.
Speaker 1 (04:07):
I'm just illustrating how conventional wisdom immediately following the tariff
announcement was wrong.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
On inflation.
Speaker 1 (04:19):
That morning, April seventh, I mentioned this to you, I said,
I assure you this will be net deflationary.
Speaker 2 (04:29):
And here's why.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
What is the biggest expense for almost all Americans? And
I asked you, Joel, I said, Joel, what is the
biggest expense for almost all Americans?
Speaker 3 (04:39):
And I don't think I had it, but today you did.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
You're right.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
It was housing.
Speaker 1 (04:44):
Yes, you were right, and you don't even remember being right.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
I'm not right often enough to try to.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
Take your correct answer and make it wrong in retrospect.
And I'm setting you up for a win twice and
you're like, I got boyed this one. No, you're on it.
And then I also asked you this question. What's the
second biggest expense for almost all Americans?
Speaker 2 (05:07):
By the way, you were also right about this one.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
It was transportation, that's right.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Yeah, those are almost always the two biggest expenses for people,
the roof over your head and what it takes to
get from point A to point B. And I pointed
out that the cost of those things had already significantly declined,
and at that point, we're declining in real time along
(05:33):
with the financial markets. Talking about the mortgage rate for
a thirty year fix that was over seven percent, the
day that Trump became president, and the price of a
barrel of oil having declined by over twenty percent since the.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Time that Trump became president.
Speaker 1 (05:51):
And so when you have the cost of financing, we
have the cost of fuel, and fuel impacts the cost
of everything that's embedded in literally the cost of all products,
because even transportation costs to get goods to stores or
to deliver stuff to your home if you order online,
all that is embedded in the pricing. So you have
(06:14):
those big decreases that is going to more than offset
just about anything else is going to happen nominally with
the impact of the tariffs themselves, and so on that note,
My second takeaway for you today.
Speaker 2 (06:29):
Yeah, so what inflation.
Speaker 1 (06:31):
Here's your Labor Secretary Laurie Chavez Dreamer yesterday speaking about
the consumer price index report that came in exceedingly low.
Speaker 4 (06:44):
I can tell you that what's working is working now.
Prices have gone down. We're seeing gas prices go down,
We're seeing grocery prices go down. People are able to
keep more of their hard earned dollars.
Speaker 2 (06:55):
Sure enough.
Speaker 1 (06:55):
So yesterday we did receive the May consumer inflation rate,
which turned out to be lower than April's inflation raight.
Speaker 2 (07:03):
So here it is.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
You got the ramp up in tariffs, right, and what happens.
The inflation rate was lower in May than it was
in April, and it was only a third, only one third.
Speaker 2 (07:18):
Of what economists had predicted.
Speaker 1 (07:21):
In other words, the economists that scared everybody, that freaked
everybody out, that your GSS news media put everywhere. They
were two thirds wrong about this. Two thirds again really,
only you know a batter in baseball can be right
(07:41):
thirty three percent of the time, can get a hit
thirty three percent of the time, and be a good player. Economists,
it's some remarkable these people have jobs. Let me break
this down for you in a way that you will
not get or hear or have percented anywhere else. But
is one hundred percent the story on the ground. Here
(08:02):
are the monthly inflation rates. Okay, so not the annualized
rate when you average twelve the trailing twelve months together,
but just the trend three months is considered a trend
in financial markets anytime you have a quarter, right, So
the final three months of the Biden administration, the inflation
rate was point three percent, than point four percent, than
(08:24):
point five percent, By the way, do you notice a
trend there?
Speaker 2 (08:27):
The inflation was getting.
Speaker 3 (08:28):
Worse save one up, Yes.
Speaker 1 (08:30):
Every single month on Biden's way out of the office.
So one it was higher than we would want because
I'll mean to make this overly complicated, but what are
we trying to get to?
Speaker 2 (08:42):
Two percent or lower inflation?
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Right?
Speaker 1 (08:44):
And even the lowest of those point three, you multiply
that by twelve months when you get three point six.
So we went from there up to where it was
at six percent pacing by the time Biden left office again.
But anyway, the annualized inflation rate the final three months
(09:05):
of Biden came out to four point eight percent.
Speaker 2 (09:08):
That's where the trend was.
Speaker 1 (09:10):
Now here is the rate through the first four months
of the Trump administration. Remember Biden was point three point
four point five Trump point two negative point one point
two point one last month. Do you know what that
averages out to the four month trend of the Trump
(09:31):
administration an annualized inflation rate of one point two percent
one point two When was the last time that inflation
was bulow two percent? When Trump was last president of
the United States In January twenty twenty one, the overall
annualized inflation rate is still pacing two point four percent
(09:53):
currently because you still have eight of those Biden months
that are factored in with the four of the Trump
and the trailing twelve month average. But what's been clear
is in the early going of Trump two point zero,
once again, economists have been dead wrong, dead wrong about Trump,
his policies, the impact the economy. Trump is demonstrably right
(10:18):
in making America great again. And as I like to say,
I've also not made a career out of being wrong.
And so when I made those two calls that particular day,
I knew the ramification I'm saying that it was a
historically great time to be binding stocks. I knew the
ramifications of saying I assure you this will be net deflationary.
(10:41):
Here we are my third takeaway for you today. Done deal,
done deal. Treasury Secretary's got present.
Speaker 2 (10:48):
Yesterday.
Speaker 5 (10:49):
I have just returned to the middle of last night
from successful negotiations in London with a Chinese delegation that
will not only stabilize the economic relationship between our two
economies but make it more balanced.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Right, So, yesterday, following several consecutive days and trade negotiations
with China China. President Trump posted this on Truth all Caps.
Our deal with China is done, subject to final approval
with President She and me full magnets. Any necessary rare
(11:24):
earths will be supplied upfront by China. Likewise, we will
provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students
using our colleges and universities, which has always been good
with me. We are getting a total of fifty five
percent tariffs. China is getting ten percent. Relationship is excellent.
(11:45):
Thank you for your attention to this matter. Okay, So
shortly thereafter China confirmed Trump's truth Cover Secretary Howard Latnek
later confirmed that tariff levels will not change from here,
and explaining the fifty five percent that Trump menchem there
is a thirty percent across the board tariff and Chinese goods,
with an additional twenty five percent that for the products
(12:07):
that already had that twenty five percent tariff in place
from the first Trump administration. So the pieces are falling
in place perfectly, and aside from working out some of
the additional trade deals which will likely be coming rather
quickly from here, all that is left is putting the
finishing touches on the OBBB.
Speaker 2 (12:26):
Are you down with the OBBB?
Speaker 3 (12:28):
Joel sometimes okay,
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