March 5, 2025 • 16 mins
March 5, 2025: Host Adam Kaufman (Twitter @adammkaufman) is joined by Dan Watkins (@danwatkinsradio) and guest Sean Zerillo (@seanzerillo) from the Action Network. Did you realize the Red Sox open their season in three weeks?! Time to talk turkey on the toast of the baseball betting community. Does Boston deserve this much hype? Should New York be favored to win the American League? Will Toronto trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr? We take a deep dive into the AL East with Zerillo for his top plays on the futures market.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambled
at for the end of the day. No way, I'll
give you three to one eyes five d.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here, get ahead of line movement, find in game value,
and hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
This is my gambling.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
If I win, we all win.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Tell your smart speaker to play that Gambler with Adam
Kaufman on w RKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
We are back with you here the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Great to hang out with you and of course sprinkle
a little bit of everything, I mean truly everything on
this show. I don't think we have any darts or
anything like that coming up, Dan, but we're gonna have
college basketball, and we already did NHL, we already did
golf with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, started the process and
(01:06):
giving out some plays. We're going to have some football conversation. Suddenly.
The wide receiver options for the New England Patriots, at
least in terms of guys that they are able to
go after. The list is growing a little bit with
the likes of you know, now DK Metcalf who was
requested a trade in Seattle. Tyler Lockett released by these
(01:29):
Seahawks or will be anyway. Christian kirk is available there
my guy. Oh yeah, absolutely huge fan Christian Kirk.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Well.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I invested in him last year as the show future
and he let me down. He's probably multiple times.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
I immediately thought of you when I heard the news today,
So go get him. Therefore, he's your guy.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
That's fair. So we'll mix in a little bit of
football later on too. But baseball season it's coming this month.
I mean I remember the days when it would start
like the first of April or early April. Now we
start even earlier in March. In fact, we start overseas.
This has been something that's been going on Dodgers Cubs.
(02:12):
That'll get going in a couple of weeks here while
other teams are still in spring training. We saw some
of this last year, so only fitting that we start
to get into a baseball betting primer here and division
by division. Maybe this next gentleman here who we have
not had on in too long will be kind enough
to join us for multiple divisions. But it starts now
(02:34):
with the American League East, our Red Sox in the
vicinity of plus four thirty ish, depending on the book
you're looking at. To win the American League East, the
Yankees are the favorite, followed by the Orioles, and then
no one is taking the rais or the Blue Jays seriously,
especially since there's the possibility Toronto could move on from
(02:56):
Vladimir Guerrero Junior. Could he find his way to another
team in the Al East if Toronto decides to deal him,
you know, go opposite the Angels show, Hey Otani, approach right,
deal him and actually get something for him, as opposed
to knowing that he is going to walk. But the
Red Sox, they've made some additions, some albeit injury plagued
(03:16):
historically editions, and there it just feels like now a
lot of people across the betting space when it comes
to baseball want to tell you why the Red Sox
are a good investment. Does Shan Zilla if the Action
Network agree, Sean, He's on Twitter at Shanzarello. Welcome back
to the show.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
Yeah, guys, thank you for having me. And with regard
to the Red Sox question, I think everything is already
factored in all the loves out there in the betting
markets for them. There's no value for me at this point.
I mean, I bet they're ale pen and odds at
fourteen to one. But with regard to the win total
the divisional odds, I think everything's been bet down by people. Accordingly,
(03:58):
I do want to push back on your comment about
the Rays and the Jays nobody taking them seriously. This
is one of two divisions of baseball. The ALI is
the and on central where any of the five teams
can win. You know, you will look at the projection market,
the win total market. There's about a fourteen win split
bet mean the top of the bottom of the Alias,
but the win total projection market is closer to eight
(04:19):
wins and some books closer to or some some projection
systems out there closer to five. So really that just
comes down to variants and who gets one hot streak
or one downstreak over the course of one hundred and
sixty two games. That could be the difference between finishing
at the top and bottom of the division. So the
ALI should be super competitive this year, and the Jays
added a bunch of pieces to their roster in the offseason.
(04:40):
Santander Andre Kimdez, Max Schurs are there now, so overlook
the Jays and the Rays at your peril is what
I'd say, Sean.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
Should the Yankees be such a heavy favorite in this
division right now with how this team is currently constituted,
with the injuries that are kind of starting to pop
up here in spring training, Louise heel He's going to
be shut down for a little bit. Sounds like Stanton's
going to be on the aisle to start the season. Obviously,
the Yankees lose Soto, they bring in Max Freed, but
the lineup, I feel like they added some more guys
(05:10):
that are, you know, kind of on their last legs
here and Paul Goldschmidt. We'll see what Cody Bellinger does.
Yankees at plus one to ten on DraftKings. Baltimore is
the next closest at two eighty five. I just feel
like that's too big. The Yankees are just a little
bit too big of a favorite here.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah. Absolutely, And because of that, I think there is
justifiable betting value divisionally for the Orioles. And then, as
I said, the two teams that brought up with the division,
I think the red thoughts was there. It just got
back down to where it should be accordingly, So absolutely
I'm finding ways to bet against the Yankees this season.
You mentioned the injuries. They already have the two guys
who are going to be on the ale to start
(05:44):
the season, but then you have jash Chismo is basically
never stayed healthy throughout his career until last year. He
is a tour in UCL may may need to get
moved off of a third base go back to second base.
All their pitchers Max Freed, Derrett Cole Artoles Verdon have
an armin injuries and prior seasons of this time. They're
all basically fifty to fifty bets to hit the il
(06:04):
again this season. So you know, the Aaron Judge like injury.
Question two really comes into play for me as well
with regard to not only the Al East and the Yankees,
but every betting category stat leader's home run later RBI leader,
because if he plays a full season, he probably wins those.
But Aaron Judge two years ago missed a lot of
time with the tow injury, and he said that that's
an injury he's going to ask the manager throughout the
(06:26):
rest of his career. He was final last year, but
it could crop up again this season, and the Yankees
just have a lot of injury risks throughout their rosters.
So throughout the projection market, you know this division how
competitive it is. Everybody likes them to go under ninety
two and a half. I would bet that all the
way down to about ninety. I view this is an
eighty nine win team in a very very competitive vision.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Yeah, I mean, it's really both East, and we'll do
the National League East another time, but just for the
sake of mentioning this, you know, obviously the Dodgers the
defending champs. They're at the top of the World Series,
but within the top eight in terms of World Series odds.
You have three NL East teams, and you have three
AL East teams and the top American League team. The
(07:09):
second overall team is that Yankee squad, who I agree
with everything you guys just said. I mean, I get it,
I guess to some degree. But this is a team
that you know, has questions throughout that lineup. The Orioles,
who are ahead of the Red Sox at fifteen to one,
have questions throughout their rotation. The Red Sox, who I'm
not as bullish on them as a lot of people
around here, certainly, although I would go over on eighty
(07:32):
six and a half wins for them. They've got all
sorts of can they stay healthy questions, especially in that rotation,
So I guess I just I wonder if it's is
it talent or is it just reputation that has these
teams so close to the top.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I'm really concerned about Devers this year. You know, those doubles,
shoulder juries, the way he tanks in the second half,
won sixty WRC boss in the first half, so about
sixty percent better than league average, and even a below
average hit in the second half of the season, while
dealing with that shoulder soreness. It's still there this year.
It didn't really go away after an offseason. So you
bring in Bregman. Yoshida has had a little bit of
(08:11):
trouble staying healthy. Cassis has like this over rotation thing
when he swings that you're worried is going to reinjure
his ribs to Duran had as good of a season
as he had last year. But you know, in terms
of player development, I really trust this team. Like if
anybody's going to make their internal resources better throughout a season,
improve their guys, I really trust what the Red Sox
(08:31):
have going on with all the drive line former drive
line staff that they have there. I think if you
want to bet Crochet thirteen to one for strikeout leader,
that's a fun way to bet some Red Sox upside
this season. I make him the strikeout leader twelve percent
of the time the way I A simulated it out.
That's over ten thousand simulations of the season, so twelve
percent of the time. You can bet that down to
(08:51):
about nine to one. He was the strikeout rate leader
in MLB last season. He also had the fewest pitches
for strikeout recorded last year. He is just a very
efficient guy, and I know they're going to add some
things his arsenal coming over from Chicago. So my one
concern with Crochet is just injury as well, you know,
like any of the Yankees guys. For Crochet, his previous
(09:12):
career high in innings prior to last year was sixty
five at Tennessee, and he seemed to fade a little
bit down the stretch. But I think there was a
little bit of bad luck involved there as well. So
Crochet k later. The one bet I have on the
Red Sox this season. I didn't bet anything negative on them.
As I said that those pen and odds that I like,
they are pretty well gone. But my one issue with
the Red Sox it's just the same as the issue
(09:33):
with the Orioles. It's roster consolidation. You have all these
great pieces, all these great prospects that are really exciting,
but you can only play nine guys on the field
at once, and unfortunately, they're going to have to make
some decisions with regard to people they may want to
move on from.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
So I'm glad you brought up the Baltimore oriole Sean.
We saw Baltimore finish with ninety one wins last year,
they had one hundred and two years ago. Corvin Burns
is gone, he went to Arizona. Do we see the
Oriols take another step back this season? I know the
hitting in the lineup is awesome. We all love these
guys that Baltimore's brought up positionally, but I feel like
they might not have the pitching this year to get
(10:09):
to their win total of eighty eight or eighty seven
and a half on DraftKings right now.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
So I would stay away from the win total. If
you like the Orioles, just bet their Division odds, consider
betting their odds to get a round one. Buy that
there's not a huge discrepancy between the round one by
and the division odds. That you know, same recommendation for
the Red Sox. Really, whoever wins the AL East is
very likely to get a by ahead of the team
in the ANA or the AL Central. So if you
(10:36):
get significantly better odds on the team they get a
round one by the division odds, that could be worth
a pope for anybody. But Baltimore's bullpen, I know the
starting pitching should take a step back. Must a little
worried about Grayson Rodriguez because this lasta was down in
spring training today, But the bullpen should be much better
than it was last year. Felix Batista coming back. They said,
Andrew Kittrich, you should be a big piece for them.
(10:58):
They have all the pieces that they added at the
trade deadline last season. So I think that bullpen should
be much more stable and the lineup should improve relatives
last year. All these guys are starting to get now
into their mid twenties. Twenty five, twenty six, Rutchman's twenty seven,
Gunners twenty four. I think Gunner's a really fun runs
leader bet. Gunner was the runs leader for the first
(11:19):
half of last season until the offense basically got unhealthy.
Rutchman is really dinged up in the second half. They're
moving defences in there as well too, so the Oriols
should score more runs this season. Gunner was the runs
leader in the first half last year. He's sixteen to
one to lead the league and runs this year I
make him about eight percent in that market. So eleven
to one are better than Gunner runs leader, I think
(11:41):
is a good bet. I would hold off on giving
out the Grays and Cyum bet right now, but he
still looks like he should be back to opening days.
So Blatista saves leader twenty twenty to one or better
looks like a decent bet as well. And if you
like Baltimore in this division, I like their offense. I
think it has a very high four to carry them throughout.
I think three to one are better divisionally is fine
as well.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Crochet is sitting second in the cy Young market behind
Tarik Schooball. And this is someone who, as we remember,
was just micromanaged to the end degree in the latter
couple of months last season by the White Sox, knowing
full well they didn't want to risk injury or further setback.
He was going to be on his way out the door,
but and we never saw him going more than four innings.
(12:23):
Seems like it just made betting him and k props
and all of that really tricky every five days. You
already mentioned Crochet as you know, a potential strikeout leader,
bet that type of thing. But when you see plus
three seventy as a cy young number on him, is
this just a case where I don't know, like the
numbers too short, Like it just feels like there's the
(12:46):
value has been sapped out of it at this point.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Absolutely, Yeah, three seventy is way too short. I really
don't bet any awards or stat leader markets below eight
to one. That's about as low as I'll go on anything.
Because over the course season, once you factor in the
probability that even the guys who are least likely to
get hurt, the guys who if you rated everybody on
a health rating A through F, even the guys who
(13:10):
are a grade health ratings still have like a twenty
percent chance of just randomly getting hurt throughout the season,
which if you're betting into stat Leader markets. If you
miss a week, that could be enough, you know, to
lose in that market. If you're betting MVP, losing two
weeks three weeks be enough to take you out of
the top of that le or so losing any time
(13:31):
is very detrimental. That's why, you know, with regard to
all the fading, the Yankees best fading, the Aaron Judge
best and his home run RBI leader market stuff like that.
Aaron Judge, if you rate health ratings A through F,
he's probably a C. You know, Cole Freed, Rodan, those
guys are anywhere between c's and F. So there is
a lot of downside of that Yankees roster, as I mentioned.
(13:53):
And Garrett Crochet is probably an F great health rating,
which is why I could never recommend betting him at
plus three twenty five for Cy Young. But I do
factor in that very heavily into my stat Leader market projections,
and that's why I'd rather take a much juicier number
on that upside stab with the K Leader.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Sean, I got one more for you. Vladdie Junior is
in a contract year. Obviously, he's trying to get paid
in twelve months from now. Less than that. I see
in your futures portfolio. You have taken a few stabs
and some different leader markets with him. What are you
looking at with Vlad Junior?
Speaker 3 (14:27):
Yeah, Vlad hits leader. He was first in the second
half of the season. Last year. He had ninety one
hits in sixty three games. I believe he had more
hits than fewer games than Bobby Wood Junior. He only
finished twelve behind what on the years. The one problem
betting a number two hitter or anybody below the leadoff
spot to be the hits leader over the course of
(14:48):
one hundred and sixty two games, you're losing about fifteen
to twenty played appearances every spot in the lineup that
you moved down. So betting guys who are number two
hitters or number three hitters to lead the league and
runs or lead the league and hits be a little difficult.
That is the one guy who I think is an
exception to that. I'd take his hits leader prop down
to about eleven to one. I think he's interesting as
(15:08):
a poke for MVP at eighteen to one. The one
problem is is you guys talked about at the top.
He could get traded out of the American League, and
you would lose that ticket automatically at the moment he
gets traded. Unfortunately, the Hits leader Popter just counts for
the entire season regardless of what league you play in.
So definitely a much more safeway to in less than
blave Junior on. Just with regard to the Jays, you know,
I bet they're over early at one up like a
(15:29):
couple of wins, and then the Red Socks added Gregman.
You know, this division sort of got a little bit
more competitive on paper elsewhere, and I'm neutralized with the
market there, but yeah, I think the Jays can be
a competitive team early and actually put themselves in a
position where they're sort of, you know, sitting around five hundred,
not sure if they should buy or sell, and you know,
forced to make a decision whether they should go over
(15:52):
the playoffs or not. And yeah, we'll see if Flag
gets shop. There's gonna be other guys here like Sandial
Contra on the block. I think that could be a
good addition for the Orioles, Dylan see could be a
good addition for them. So there could be a lot
of trade activity in this division as well.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Sean Zarrella from the Action Network on Twitter at Sean Zarrillo.
He is invested in a bunch of futures. Make sure
you check out his Action Network page and you will
see them all listed there. Sewn always appreciate your time.
I'm sure we'll bug you again because as mentioned, we
got six divisions to roll through before the season gets here.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Yes.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Absolutely.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
If you want some more divisions, check out the Payoff
pitch feed. We're starting to go through our divisional bridges
as well. But as always, guys, thank you for having me.
If there are games to be played, there are bets
to be made.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
I'll bet you twenty bucks I can get you gambled
at for the end of the day. No way, I'll
give you three to one eyes five d.
Speaker 1 (00:14):
Here, get ahead of line movement, find in game value,
and hear the latest insights from your favorite industry experts.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
This is my gambling.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
If I win, we all win.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
Tell your smart speaker to play that Gambler with Adam
Kaufman on w RKO on iHeartRadio.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
We are back with you here the Gambler with Adam Kaufman.
Great to hang out with you and of course sprinkle
a little bit of everything, I mean truly everything on
this show. I don't think we have any darts or
anything like that coming up, Dan, but we're gonna have
college basketball, and we already did NHL, we already did
golf with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, started the process and
(01:06):
giving out some plays. We're going to have some football conversation. Suddenly.
The wide receiver options for the New England Patriots, at
least in terms of guys that they are able to
go after. The list is growing a little bit with
the likes of you know, now DK Metcalf who was
requested a trade in Seattle. Tyler Lockett released by these
(01:29):
Seahawks or will be anyway. Christian kirk is available there
my guy. Oh yeah, absolutely huge fan Christian Kirk.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Well.
Speaker 2 (01:40):
I invested in him last year as the show future
and he let me down. He's probably multiple times.
Speaker 4 (01:45):
I immediately thought of you when I heard the news today,
So go get him. Therefore, he's your guy.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
That's fair. So we'll mix in a little bit of
football later on too. But baseball season it's coming this month.
I mean I remember the days when it would start
like the first of April or early April. Now we
start even earlier in March. In fact, we start overseas.
This has been something that's been going on Dodgers Cubs.
(02:12):
That'll get going in a couple of weeks here while
other teams are still in spring training. We saw some
of this last year, so only fitting that we start
to get into a baseball betting primer here and division
by division. Maybe this next gentleman here who we have
not had on in too long will be kind enough
to join us for multiple divisions. But it starts now
(02:34):
with the American League East, our Red Sox in the
vicinity of plus four thirty ish, depending on the book
you're looking at. To win the American League East, the
Yankees are the favorite, followed by the Orioles, and then
no one is taking the rais or the Blue Jays seriously,
especially since there's the possibility Toronto could move on from
(02:56):
Vladimir Guerrero Junior. Could he find his way to another
team in the Al East if Toronto decides to deal him,
you know, go opposite the Angels show, Hey Otani, approach right,
deal him and actually get something for him, as opposed
to knowing that he is going to walk. But the
Red Sox, they've made some additions, some albeit injury plagued
(03:16):
historically editions, and there it just feels like now a
lot of people across the betting space when it comes
to baseball want to tell you why the Red Sox
are a good investment. Does Shan Zilla if the Action
Network agree, Sean, He's on Twitter at Shanzarello. Welcome back
to the show.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
Yeah, guys, thank you for having me. And with regard
to the Red Sox question, I think everything is already
factored in all the loves out there in the betting
markets for them. There's no value for me at this point.
I mean, I bet they're ale pen and odds at
fourteen to one. But with regard to the win total
the divisional odds, I think everything's been bet down by people. Accordingly,
(03:58):
I do want to push back on your comment about
the Rays and the Jays nobody taking them seriously. This
is one of two divisions of baseball. The ALI is
the and on central where any of the five teams
can win. You know, you will look at the projection market,
the win total market. There's about a fourteen win split
bet mean the top of the bottom of the Alias,
but the win total projection market is closer to eight
(04:19):
wins and some books closer to or some some projection
systems out there closer to five. So really that just
comes down to variants and who gets one hot streak
or one downstreak over the course of one hundred and
sixty two games. That could be the difference between finishing
at the top and bottom of the division. So the
ALI should be super competitive this year, and the Jays
added a bunch of pieces to their roster in the offseason.
(04:40):
Santander Andre Kimdez, Max Schurs are there now, so overlook
the Jays and the Rays at your peril is what
I'd say, Sean.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
Should the Yankees be such a heavy favorite in this
division right now with how this team is currently constituted,
with the injuries that are kind of starting to pop
up here in spring training, Louise heel He's going to
be shut down for a little bit. Sounds like Stanton's
going to be on the aisle to start the season. Obviously,
the Yankees lose Soto, they bring in Max Freed, but
the lineup, I feel like they added some more guys
(05:10):
that are, you know, kind of on their last legs
here and Paul Goldschmidt. We'll see what Cody Bellinger does.
Yankees at plus one to ten on DraftKings. Baltimore is
the next closest at two eighty five. I just feel
like that's too big. The Yankees are just a little
bit too big of a favorite here.
Speaker 3 (05:23):
Yeah. Absolutely, And because of that, I think there is
justifiable betting value divisionally for the Orioles. And then, as
I said, the two teams that brought up with the division,
I think the red thoughts was there. It just got
back down to where it should be accordingly, So absolutely
I'm finding ways to bet against the Yankees this season.
You mentioned the injuries. They already have the two guys
who are going to be on the ale to start
(05:44):
the season, but then you have jash Chismo is basically
never stayed healthy throughout his career until last year. He
is a tour in UCL may may need to get
moved off of a third base go back to second base.
All their pitchers Max Freed, Derrett Cole Artoles Verdon have
an armin injuries and prior seasons of this time. They're
all basically fifty to fifty bets to hit the il
(06:04):
again this season. So you know, the Aaron Judge like injury.
Question two really comes into play for me as well
with regard to not only the Al East and the Yankees,
but every betting category stat leader's home run later RBI leader,
because if he plays a full season, he probably wins those.
But Aaron Judge two years ago missed a lot of
time with the tow injury, and he said that that's
an injury he's going to ask the manager throughout the
(06:26):
rest of his career. He was final last year, but
it could crop up again this season, and the Yankees
just have a lot of injury risks throughout their rosters.
So throughout the projection market, you know this division how
competitive it is. Everybody likes them to go under ninety
two and a half. I would bet that all the
way down to about ninety. I view this is an
eighty nine win team in a very very competitive vision.
Speaker 2 (06:48):
Yeah, I mean, it's really both East, and we'll do
the National League East another time, but just for the
sake of mentioning this, you know, obviously the Dodgers the
defending champs. They're at the top of the World Series,
but within the top eight in terms of World Series odds.
You have three NL East teams, and you have three
AL East teams and the top American League team. The
(07:09):
second overall team is that Yankee squad, who I agree
with everything you guys just said. I mean, I get it,
I guess to some degree. But this is a team
that you know, has questions throughout that lineup. The Orioles,
who are ahead of the Red Sox at fifteen to one,
have questions throughout their rotation. The Red Sox, who I'm
not as bullish on them as a lot of people
around here, certainly, although I would go over on eighty
(07:32):
six and a half wins for them. They've got all
sorts of can they stay healthy questions, especially in that rotation,
So I guess I just I wonder if it's is
it talent or is it just reputation that has these
teams so close to the top.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
I'm really concerned about Devers this year. You know, those doubles,
shoulder juries, the way he tanks in the second half,
won sixty WRC boss in the first half, so about
sixty percent better than league average, and even a below
average hit in the second half of the season, while
dealing with that shoulder soreness. It's still there this year.
It didn't really go away after an offseason. So you
bring in Bregman. Yoshida has had a little bit of
(08:11):
trouble staying healthy. Cassis has like this over rotation thing
when he swings that you're worried is going to reinjure
his ribs to Duran had as good of a season
as he had last year. But you know, in terms
of player development, I really trust this team. Like if
anybody's going to make their internal resources better throughout a season,
improve their guys, I really trust what the Red Sox
(08:31):
have going on with all the drive line former drive
line staff that they have there. I think if you
want to bet Crochet thirteen to one for strikeout leader,
that's a fun way to bet some Red Sox upside
this season. I make him the strikeout leader twelve percent
of the time the way I A simulated it out.
That's over ten thousand simulations of the season, so twelve
percent of the time. You can bet that down to
(08:51):
about nine to one. He was the strikeout rate leader
in MLB last season. He also had the fewest pitches
for strikeout recorded last year. He is just a very
efficient guy, and I know they're going to add some
things his arsenal coming over from Chicago. So my one
concern with Crochet is just injury as well, you know,
like any of the Yankees guys. For Crochet, his previous
(09:12):
career high in innings prior to last year was sixty
five at Tennessee, and he seemed to fade a little
bit down the stretch. But I think there was a
little bit of bad luck involved there as well. So
Crochet k later. The one bet I have on the
Red Sox this season. I didn't bet anything negative on them.
As I said that those pen and odds that I like,
they are pretty well gone. But my one issue with
the Red Sox it's just the same as the issue
(09:33):
with the Orioles. It's roster consolidation. You have all these
great pieces, all these great prospects that are really exciting,
but you can only play nine guys on the field
at once, and unfortunately, they're going to have to make
some decisions with regard to people they may want to
move on from.
Speaker 4 (09:48):
So I'm glad you brought up the Baltimore oriole Sean.
We saw Baltimore finish with ninety one wins last year,
they had one hundred and two years ago. Corvin Burns
is gone, he went to Arizona. Do we see the
Oriols take another step back this season? I know the
hitting in the lineup is awesome. We all love these
guys that Baltimore's brought up positionally, but I feel like
they might not have the pitching this year to get
(10:09):
to their win total of eighty eight or eighty seven
and a half on DraftKings right now.
Speaker 3 (10:15):
So I would stay away from the win total. If
you like the Orioles, just bet their Division odds, consider
betting their odds to get a round one. Buy that
there's not a huge discrepancy between the round one by
and the division odds. That you know, same recommendation for
the Red Sox. Really, whoever wins the AL East is
very likely to get a by ahead of the team
in the ANA or the AL Central. So if you
(10:36):
get significantly better odds on the team they get a
round one by the division odds, that could be worth
a pope for anybody. But Baltimore's bullpen, I know the
starting pitching should take a step back. Must a little
worried about Grayson Rodriguez because this lasta was down in
spring training today, But the bullpen should be much better
than it was last year. Felix Batista coming back. They said,
Andrew Kittrich, you should be a big piece for them.
(10:58):
They have all the pieces that they added at the
trade deadline last season. So I think that bullpen should
be much more stable and the lineup should improve relatives
last year. All these guys are starting to get now
into their mid twenties. Twenty five, twenty six, Rutchman's twenty seven,
Gunners twenty four. I think Gunner's a really fun runs
leader bet. Gunner was the runs leader for the first
(11:19):
half of last season until the offense basically got unhealthy.
Rutchman is really dinged up in the second half. They're
moving defences in there as well too, so the Oriols
should score more runs this season. Gunner was the runs
leader in the first half last year. He's sixteen to
one to lead the league and runs this year I
make him about eight percent in that market. So eleven
to one are better than Gunner runs leader, I think
(11:41):
is a good bet. I would hold off on giving
out the Grays and Cyum bet right now, but he
still looks like he should be back to opening days.
So Blatista saves leader twenty twenty to one or better
looks like a decent bet as well. And if you
like Baltimore in this division, I like their offense. I
think it has a very high four to carry them throughout.
I think three to one are better divisionally is fine
as well.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Crochet is sitting second in the cy Young market behind
Tarik Schooball. And this is someone who, as we remember,
was just micromanaged to the end degree in the latter
couple of months last season by the White Sox, knowing
full well they didn't want to risk injury or further setback.
He was going to be on his way out the door,
but and we never saw him going more than four innings.
(12:23):
Seems like it just made betting him and k props
and all of that really tricky every five days. You
already mentioned Crochet as you know, a potential strikeout leader,
bet that type of thing. But when you see plus
three seventy as a cy young number on him, is
this just a case where I don't know, like the
numbers too short, Like it just feels like there's the
(12:46):
value has been sapped out of it at this point.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Absolutely, Yeah, three seventy is way too short. I really
don't bet any awards or stat leader markets below eight
to one. That's about as low as I'll go on anything.
Because over the course season, once you factor in the
probability that even the guys who are least likely to
get hurt, the guys who if you rated everybody on
a health rating A through F, even the guys who
(13:10):
are a grade health ratings still have like a twenty
percent chance of just randomly getting hurt throughout the season,
which if you're betting into stat Leader markets. If you
miss a week, that could be enough, you know, to
lose in that market. If you're betting MVP, losing two
weeks three weeks be enough to take you out of
the top of that le or so losing any time
(13:31):
is very detrimental. That's why, you know, with regard to
all the fading, the Yankees best fading, the Aaron Judge
best and his home run RBI leader market stuff like that.
Aaron Judge, if you rate health ratings A through F,
he's probably a C. You know, Cole Freed, Rodan, those
guys are anywhere between c's and F. So there is
a lot of downside of that Yankees roster, as I mentioned.
(13:53):
And Garrett Crochet is probably an F great health rating,
which is why I could never recommend betting him at
plus three twenty five for Cy Young. But I do
factor in that very heavily into my stat Leader market projections,
and that's why I'd rather take a much juicier number
on that upside stab with the K Leader.
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Sean, I got one more for you. Vladdie Junior is
in a contract year. Obviously, he's trying to get paid
in twelve months from now. Less than that. I see
in your futures portfolio. You have taken a few stabs
and some different leader markets with him. What are you
looking at with Vlad Junior?
Speaker 3 (14:27):
Yeah, Vlad hits leader. He was first in the second
half of the season. Last year. He had ninety one
hits in sixty three games. I believe he had more
hits than fewer games than Bobby Wood Junior. He only
finished twelve behind what on the years. The one problem
betting a number two hitter or anybody below the leadoff
spot to be the hits leader over the course of
(14:48):
one hundred and sixty two games, you're losing about fifteen
to twenty played appearances every spot in the lineup that
you moved down. So betting guys who are number two
hitters or number three hitters to lead the league and
runs or lead the league and hits be a little difficult.
That is the one guy who I think is an
exception to that. I'd take his hits leader prop down
to about eleven to one. I think he's interesting as
(15:08):
a poke for MVP at eighteen to one. The one
problem is is you guys talked about at the top.
He could get traded out of the American League, and
you would lose that ticket automatically at the moment he
gets traded. Unfortunately, the Hits leader Popter just counts for
the entire season regardless of what league you play in.
So definitely a much more safeway to in less than
blave Junior on. Just with regard to the Jays, you know,
I bet they're over early at one up like a
(15:29):
couple of wins, and then the Red Socks added Gregman.
You know, this division sort of got a little bit
more competitive on paper elsewhere, and I'm neutralized with the
market there, but yeah, I think the Jays can be
a competitive team early and actually put themselves in a
position where they're sort of, you know, sitting around five hundred,
not sure if they should buy or sell, and you know,
forced to make a decision whether they should go over
(15:52):
the playoffs or not. And yeah, we'll see if Flag
gets shop. There's gonna be other guys here like Sandial
Contra on the block. I think that could be a
good addition for the Orioles, Dylan see could be a
good addition for them. So there could be a lot
of trade activity in this division as well.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Sean Zarrella from the Action Network on Twitter at Sean Zarrillo.
He is invested in a bunch of futures. Make sure
you check out his Action Network page and you will
see them all listed there. Sewn always appreciate your time.
I'm sure we'll bug you again because as mentioned, we
got six divisions to roll through before the season gets here.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
Yes.
Speaker 4 (16:21):
Absolutely.
Speaker 3 (16:22):
If you want some more divisions, check out the Payoff
pitch feed. We're starting to go through our divisional bridges
as well. But as always, guys, thank you for having me.
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