April 17, 2024 • 9 mins
Ben Wilson and Wes Reynolds preview the two NBA Eastern Conference play-in games and take a look at the biggest MLB matchups for Wednesday's betting slate.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Feason's Daily Morning Best.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
And the Big Games for this Wednesday card. It's in
the NBA, of course, even though one game is maybe
a little bit less palatable than the Western Conference playing
turn of Big Games West. We'll start with a big
one though, battle to see who gets these seven seed
and faces of the New York Knicks in the Eastern
Conference as the Philadelphia seventy six or your West getting
a lot of market support against the Miami Heat. It's
not a surprise out of five point favorites, total is
(00:27):
down a point from two to eight and a half
to super seven and a half, and the question becomes,
at one point, does that tax on Philadelphia become too
much to pay here in the market for a team
that has been so hot.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, you are laying at the top of the market here.
I do think Philadelphia is gonna win the game, and
why not ten to one ATS over their last eleven
when Embiid has been on the floor since his return,
six and oh straight up in ATS. So look, Philadelphia
is the danger team. The fact that they're like the
third choice to win the Eastern Conference and they're the
seven seed, like they're not even in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami,
(00:59):
I think is like the fifth choice and they're not
even in the main drawl yet either. So yeah, I
think Miami that's a little bit on reputation. I think
Philadelphia it's on a little bit more reality. Since Embiid
has come back, I know that the schedule hasn't, as
you know, been a murderer's row down the stretch for Philadelphia,
but you know, he's been back and they and they've
(01:22):
been a totally different team. The Anthony Melton is going
to be questionable here, and he's a guy that's a
three and D guy that could really help him. But
Tyrese Maxi has dominated Miami in the regular season series
twenty seven points, six and a half rebounds, eight assists
a game. He and embid I believe in the last
meeting down in Miami scored sixty eight between them on
(01:43):
twenty six to forty shooting. So Spoe is probably going
to have to go to the zone out of necessity,
which more often than not as effective.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We'll see if it is here.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
But yeah, Miami, I think, you know, people are a
little bit scared necessarily to lay it against him because
of the reputation and because of what they did last year.
Obviously taking to the NBA Finals is the eight seed
out of the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
But I think Philadelphia wins here.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
So you know, money line of less than two dollars,
you know, might not be the worst bet necessarily in
the world.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Look, if you also wanted to attack it on the
player props side, Tyres Maxie, I mean thirty seven points,
eleven boards, nine assists the last time the two met.
Granted that these numbers, you always have to consider the
total in games like this where my foldals have been
getting bashed to the under. So I would say in general,
probably stay away from betting player props over unless you
find a really good angle. But the matchup has looked very,
(02:38):
very beneficial for a Maxi. He's at thirty three and
a half points, rebounds assist combo for a guy who
could potentially cover that on his own just with the point.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, yeah, because the look, I wonder what you know?
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Miami.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Of course, Terry Rougier not going to be in the
lineup for the Heat as well, So I think I
think Philadelphia gets by Miami here.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
As for game number two of the Eastern Conference playing
tournament card, that's game one is the early game, the
seven to eight matchup between the Philadelphia seventy six ers
at home against the Miami Heat. How about the nine
to ten a matchup. Everybody's going to be tuned in
for West Chicago Bulls Atlanta Hawks. This is not exactly
Dominique versus MJ.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
About this a late start on the East Coast for
these teams nine to thirty, even though it would be
played in Central Time in Chicago. But look, I feel
like this game, and I joked early that this should
be like in Dayton. This feels like one of the
Dayton eleven seeds basically against the eleven seed in the
NCAA tournament.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
Atlanta coming in zero.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
To six last six regular season contest one and seven
against the number last eight. Keep in mind, they already
knew what their seed was going to be, so they
slightly threw in the towel. I will say, you know,
maybe didn't play all their guys extended minute. Chicago has
been a little bit better lately, but high lean of
the Hawks here actually, and look, that's not inspiring to
(04:00):
take a team that just got beat by forty in
the season finale at Indiana. But the Pacers were trying
to obviously clinch that six seeds so that they didn't
have to drop into this playing tournament scenario seven through
ten seeds. Atlanta, Look, if you're Trey Young, you don't
want him shooting threes.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You want him getting to the basket.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Because they now are starting a more three point friendly
lineup with the John D. Murray and they put Bogdanovich in,
so they've been shooting a lot more threes and been shooting.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
It pretty well.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Chicago allows a lot from the three because they try
to prevent at the rim, you know, and help Vucevich
out a little bit down there.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Lean Atlanta plus three in this one.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
This, by the way, the only one of these four
playing games which are now I think twelve and two
all time to the under. This is the only one
that's moved to the over so far, and it's moved
a couple points.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Alrighty, That was one question I have for us in
this game. Where could this because it's not necessarily like
a traditional playoff type setting where you might get a
little bit more free wheeling type of game flow from
an Atlanta team that chucks threes at one of the
highest rates in the NBA. The Bulls who allow threes
just in general, not as far as efficiency, that's a
whole different story. But they allow opponents to shoot a
(05:10):
ton of threes as well. Could this be more of
an open game than we're maybe accustomed.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
To seeing a very well?
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Could be neither these two teams really great defensively.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Or so I've been told.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Yes, Bolls and Hawks get ready, nine thirty Easter are
there to wrap up the play in tournament. That's the
first of the two rounds here of the play in tournament.
After last night, once again you talk about the twelve
and two under trend. I had the two unders each
cash in Lakers, Pelicans and the Warriors and the Kings.
(05:41):
Those are our big NBA games that we're focusing on
here for the Wednesday car there's also a lot of
baseball as well.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
West.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
It is getaway day for a bunch of teams. How
about this Diamondbacks cub series. Both games go to extra
innings to kick off the series, and now you get
the getaway game going on as a pretty much a
pick your price. The Dbacks in the minus one fifteen range,
West and a man a lot of pitchers have been
used so far after the d Backs came back. They
won twelve eleven and ten innings, got a homer from
(06:09):
Catl Marte to Foce extras in the bottom of the ninth,
and then walked off the Cubbies.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Yeah, it is Jordan Wicks and Brandon fought. Is it
fought or fat fought?
Speaker 2 (06:19):
It is fought, Okay, even though he does it a pee,
it would be yes, not not fat p h e
t yes.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Which would have been cooler, which would have been review.
But yeah, Jordan Wicks going on the mound. Wicks has
been pretty solid this season, so you know, would maybe
look because they're going to need him to go a
little bit longer because like you mentioned with the bullpen,
so might look at recorded outs or strikeout. It's with
(06:46):
Jordan Wicks. But I'm curious how you're going to play this,
and this.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Is a best bet for me.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
I played this Diamondbacks minus one fifteen. We are seeing
some market movement toward the d Backs up to minus
one twenty five and some shops as well. But this
is a great hitting matchup for the d Backs against Wicks,
who's a lefty, has really struggled with commands so far.
He has walked eight so far and twelve and two
thirds innings across three starts. D Backs are a very
(07:10):
patient and be very right handed heavy. It's not a
good combo against a lefty struggling with his command. The
Diamondbacks so far hitting three to zero two against lefties,
that leads major League Baseball. They're ninth in WRC plus
against left handers and their fifth in all of Major
League Baseball versus lefties and righties in walk rate as well.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Take a lot of pitches.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
A Wicks is a guy who really eliminated a lot
of his other secondary pitches. He stopped throwing his cutter
from last year, which he threw about ten percent of
the time. His four seam fastball rate has gone way
up from just over a quarter to near fifty percent.
And it's really not all that special of a fastball.
It's mid to low nineties topping out. It like ninety
three fastball. It doesn't miss a ton of bats, and
(07:52):
he struggled with command as well. I also like Brandon
Fott in a bounce back position here where he's got
a ton of positive aggression in his underlying metrics forty
eight eer west, but an expected fielding independent pitching of
three sixty three, and he is the number one pitcher
in Major League Baseball in walk rate. So far, he
throws a ton of strikes, He's just gotten unfortunate with
some batted bulllock.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
I'll go with one really quickly here a total. I'll
go under eight Angels and Rays. That is an early
evening start. Look, Zach Zach Lttel been pretty solid so
far this year, throws that slider debt. Merz has actually
gotten off to a really good start for the Angels.
You know, he kind of struggled a little bit, was
(08:33):
very up and down. Strikeout raid has been north of
forty percent. So look, I think low scoring here and
then the Rays.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
You know, the bats haven't really been going yet for Tampa.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
They're not getting off to the hot start clearly they
got off to last year.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Now you can.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Worry a little bit a little bit about the bullpens,
but I think the raised bullpen is actually better than
it certainly was last year, as is the Angel So
you can maybe split half in half, going under eight
on the full game total.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
And then when you look at the first.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Five here or and a half with some juice, about
minus a dollar twenty so sometimes I'll do that on
a total, I'll split half and half in first five.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
In full game, you would think the raised bullpen struggles
will certainly correct themselves from where they've started. I mean,
this is a team that certainly does not project to
be a bottom five bullpen based on the early numbers.
But that's often where small sample size excuse it's a
little bit, and that has certainly been the case with
Tampa Bay so far. That does it for our edition
of Morning Daily Bed
This is Feason's Daily Morning Best.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
And the Big Games for this Wednesday card. It's in
the NBA, of course, even though one game is maybe
a little bit less palatable than the Western Conference playing
turn of Big Games West. We'll start with a big
one though, battle to see who gets these seven seed
and faces of the New York Knicks in the Eastern
Conference as the Philadelphia seventy six or your West getting
a lot of market support against the Miami Heat. It's
not a surprise out of five point favorites, total is
(00:27):
down a point from two to eight and a half
to super seven and a half, and the question becomes,
at one point, does that tax on Philadelphia become too
much to pay here in the market for a team
that has been so hot.
Speaker 3 (00:37):
Yeah, you are laying at the top of the market here.
I do think Philadelphia is gonna win the game, and
why not ten to one ATS over their last eleven
when Embiid has been on the floor since his return,
six and oh straight up in ATS. So look, Philadelphia
is the danger team. The fact that they're like the
third choice to win the Eastern Conference and they're the
seven seed, like they're not even in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Miami,
(00:59):
I think is like the fifth choice and they're not
even in the main drawl yet either. So yeah, I
think Miami that's a little bit on reputation. I think
Philadelphia it's on a little bit more reality. Since Embiid
has come back, I know that the schedule hasn't, as
you know, been a murderer's row down the stretch for Philadelphia,
but you know, he's been back and they and they've
(01:22):
been a totally different team. The Anthony Melton is going
to be questionable here, and he's a guy that's a
three and D guy that could really help him. But
Tyrese Maxi has dominated Miami in the regular season series
twenty seven points, six and a half rebounds, eight assists
a game. He and embid I believe in the last
meeting down in Miami scored sixty eight between them on
(01:43):
twenty six to forty shooting. So Spoe is probably going
to have to go to the zone out of necessity,
which more often than not as effective.
Speaker 1 (01:50):
We'll see if it is here.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
But yeah, Miami, I think, you know, people are a
little bit scared necessarily to lay it against him because
of the reputation and because of what they did last year.
Obviously taking to the NBA Finals is the eight seed
out of the Eastern Conference.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
But I think Philadelphia wins here.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
So you know, money line of less than two dollars,
you know, might not be the worst bet necessarily in
the world.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Look, if you also wanted to attack it on the
player props side, Tyres Maxie, I mean thirty seven points,
eleven boards, nine assists the last time the two met.
Granted that these numbers, you always have to consider the
total in games like this where my foldals have been
getting bashed to the under. So I would say in general,
probably stay away from betting player props over unless you
find a really good angle. But the matchup has looked very,
(02:38):
very beneficial for a Maxi. He's at thirty three and
a half points, rebounds assist combo for a guy who
could potentially cover that on his own just with the point.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Yeah, yeah, because the look, I wonder what you know?
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Miami.
Speaker 3 (02:50):
Of course, Terry Rougier not going to be in the
lineup for the Heat as well, So I think I
think Philadelphia gets by Miami here.
Speaker 2 (02:59):
As for game number two of the Eastern Conference playing
tournament card, that's game one is the early game, the
seven to eight matchup between the Philadelphia seventy six ers
at home against the Miami Heat. How about the nine
to ten a matchup. Everybody's going to be tuned in
for West Chicago Bulls Atlanta Hawks. This is not exactly
Dominique versus MJ.
Speaker 3 (03:18):
About this a late start on the East Coast for
these teams nine to thirty, even though it would be
played in Central Time in Chicago. But look, I feel
like this game, and I joked early that this should
be like in Dayton. This feels like one of the
Dayton eleven seeds basically against the eleven seed in the
NCAA tournament.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
Atlanta coming in zero.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
To six last six regular season contest one and seven
against the number last eight. Keep in mind, they already
knew what their seed was going to be, so they
slightly threw in the towel. I will say, you know,
maybe didn't play all their guys extended minute. Chicago has
been a little bit better lately, but high lean of
the Hawks here actually, and look, that's not inspiring to
(04:00):
take a team that just got beat by forty in
the season finale at Indiana. But the Pacers were trying
to obviously clinch that six seeds so that they didn't
have to drop into this playing tournament scenario seven through
ten seeds. Atlanta, Look, if you're Trey Young, you don't
want him shooting threes.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
You want him getting to the basket.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Because they now are starting a more three point friendly
lineup with the John D. Murray and they put Bogdanovich in,
so they've been shooting a lot more threes and been shooting.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
It pretty well.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
Chicago allows a lot from the three because they try
to prevent at the rim, you know, and help Vucevich
out a little bit down there.
Speaker 1 (04:37):
Lean Atlanta plus three in this one.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
This, by the way, the only one of these four
playing games which are now I think twelve and two
all time to the under. This is the only one
that's moved to the over so far, and it's moved
a couple points.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Alrighty, That was one question I have for us in
this game. Where could this because it's not necessarily like
a traditional playoff type setting where you might get a
little bit more free wheeling type of game flow from
an Atlanta team that chucks threes at one of the
highest rates in the NBA. The Bulls who allow threes
just in general, not as far as efficiency, that's a
whole different story. But they allow opponents to shoot a
(05:10):
ton of threes as well. Could this be more of
an open game than we're maybe accustomed.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
To seeing a very well?
Speaker 3 (05:16):
Could be neither these two teams really great defensively.
Speaker 1 (05:20):
Or so I've been told.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
Yes, Bolls and Hawks get ready, nine thirty Easter are
there to wrap up the play in tournament. That's the
first of the two rounds here of the play in tournament.
After last night, once again you talk about the twelve
and two under trend. I had the two unders each
cash in Lakers, Pelicans and the Warriors and the Kings.
(05:41):
Those are our big NBA games that we're focusing on
here for the Wednesday car there's also a lot of
baseball as well.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
West.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
It is getaway day for a bunch of teams. How
about this Diamondbacks cub series. Both games go to extra
innings to kick off the series, and now you get
the getaway game going on as a pretty much a
pick your price. The Dbacks in the minus one fifteen range,
West and a man a lot of pitchers have been
used so far after the d Backs came back. They
won twelve eleven and ten innings, got a homer from
(06:09):
Catl Marte to Foce extras in the bottom of the ninth,
and then walked off the Cubbies.
Speaker 3 (06:13):
Yeah, it is Jordan Wicks and Brandon fought. Is it
fought or fat fought?
Speaker 2 (06:19):
It is fought, Okay, even though he does it a pee,
it would be yes, not not fat p h e
t yes.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
Which would have been cooler, which would have been review.
But yeah, Jordan Wicks going on the mound. Wicks has
been pretty solid this season, so you know, would maybe
look because they're going to need him to go a
little bit longer because like you mentioned with the bullpen,
so might look at recorded outs or strikeout. It's with
(06:46):
Jordan Wicks. But I'm curious how you're going to play this,
and this.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Is a best bet for me.
Speaker 2 (06:50):
I played this Diamondbacks minus one fifteen. We are seeing
some market movement toward the d Backs up to minus
one twenty five and some shops as well. But this
is a great hitting matchup for the d Backs against Wicks,
who's a lefty, has really struggled with commands so far.
He has walked eight so far and twelve and two
thirds innings across three starts. D Backs are a very
(07:10):
patient and be very right handed heavy. It's not a
good combo against a lefty struggling with his command. The
Diamondbacks so far hitting three to zero two against lefties,
that leads major League Baseball. They're ninth in WRC plus
against left handers and their fifth in all of Major
League Baseball versus lefties and righties in walk rate as well.
Speaker 1 (07:29):
Take a lot of pitches.
Speaker 2 (07:31):
A Wicks is a guy who really eliminated a lot
of his other secondary pitches. He stopped throwing his cutter
from last year, which he threw about ten percent of
the time. His four seam fastball rate has gone way
up from just over a quarter to near fifty percent.
And it's really not all that special of a fastball.
It's mid to low nineties topping out. It like ninety
three fastball. It doesn't miss a ton of bats, and
(07:52):
he struggled with command as well. I also like Brandon
Fott in a bounce back position here where he's got
a ton of positive aggression in his underlying metrics forty
eight eer west, but an expected fielding independent pitching of
three sixty three, and he is the number one pitcher
in Major League Baseball in walk rate. So far, he
throws a ton of strikes, He's just gotten unfortunate with
some batted bulllock.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
I'll go with one really quickly here a total. I'll
go under eight Angels and Rays. That is an early
evening start. Look, Zach Zach Lttel been pretty solid so
far this year, throws that slider debt. Merz has actually
gotten off to a really good start for the Angels.
You know, he kind of struggled a little bit, was
(08:33):
very up and down. Strikeout raid has been north of
forty percent. So look, I think low scoring here and
then the Rays.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
You know, the bats haven't really been going yet for Tampa.
Speaker 3 (08:45):
They're not getting off to the hot start clearly they
got off to last year.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
Now you can.
Speaker 3 (08:50):
Worry a little bit a little bit about the bullpens,
but I think the raised bullpen is actually better than
it certainly was last year, as is the Angel So
you can maybe split half in half, going under eight
on the full game total.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
And then when you look at the first.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Five here or and a half with some juice, about
minus a dollar twenty so sometimes I'll do that on
a total, I'll split half and half in first five.
Speaker 2 (09:13):
In full game, you would think the raised bullpen struggles
will certainly correct themselves from where they've started. I mean,
this is a team that certainly does not project to
be a bottom five bullpen based on the early numbers.
But that's often where small sample size excuse it's a
little bit, and that has certainly been the case with
Tampa Bay so far. That does it for our edition
of Morning Daily Bed
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