April 21, 2024 • 9 mins
Dave Ross and Will Hill give a betting preview and possible plays for Sunday's NBA Playoff slate along with a sprinkle of MLB action as well.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
This is Fison's Daily Morning Bets. Here's your hosts, Dave
Ross and Will Hill.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
All right, we're getting that coffee.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
No sugar for Will and I in our coffees, that
is in fact fact, and we're going to get these
The table set here for the four games on the
docket today on a Sunday here in the NBA, starting
off early tip here, certainly in the West Coast and
also early on the East.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
That'll be the Celtics against the Heat. Right now.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
The seas fourteen point favorites in this one, with a
total sitting in about two oh nine moneyline.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
If you really think Miami's live.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Without Jimmy Butler plus seven fifty, the Celtics rested waiting
minus twelve hundred to just win the game, Will Hill,
fourteen feels heavy, no buckets, We get that anyway. Eric
Spolzer can junk this up because I think if you're
betting the Heat plus the fourteen, you're betting on coaching
(00:54):
more than the lack of talent, which is clearly evident
without Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Yep, you're betting and coaching, and you're betting on a
lack of focus from Boston You're not going to get
a lack of focus. The way Boston has Boston the
heat in the past, the way they lost last year
in that same building, they're gonna be in tomorrow. They're
gonna hear all week how you know the heat knocked
them out last year. They're gonna have that fresh in
their minds. And plus, Miami played Friday night with a
(01:19):
skeleton crew. Now they have a short turnaround to play
in Boston. Boston is going to bury the heat tomorrow.
I'll lay the points with Boston. And honestly, my favorite
bet is because you always worry about Hey, they're up
twenty too late and then they put the backups in
in Miami gets like a back door cover. Miami team
total under ninety six and a half, I don't see
how they score. They have no offense, no roads year,
no Butler. I don't know where the offense comes from.
(01:42):
Boston as good defenders everywhere. Unless Miami can just get
up a million threes and just shoot fifty percent with
the hot Canses of the world and Kevin loves which
who knows one game, anything's possible. I'll go under ninety
six and a half is my best bet here for
the team total for Miami. I think Boston absolutely rolls.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Does that wean need towards the overall under of two
oh nine?
Speaker 2 (02:00):
You concerned that Boston might get too many by themselves?
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Yeah, I don't like taking a fourteen point favorite and
the under just doesn't go together.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
I'd rather just.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Miami team total under and maybe lay the fourteen with Boston.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
All right, I love that play as well. Let's take
a look at game two on the docket. It's out
in La La Land. The Clipper is going to be
hosting the MAVs. We do not know officially the status
of Kawhi Leonard. I believe the numbers indicate that he's
not going to play. Crazier things have happened. MAVs are
two and a half point favorites here on the road
in game one, and that total right now is sitting
(02:32):
at two twenty three. MAVs on the money line minus
a dollar forty two. If you think the Clippers with
or without Kawhi are live to win the game, they
are plus a dollar twenty Will Hill, What say you?
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I like Dallas. I don't think we see Kawhi.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Last we heard he was practicing but not doing any contact. Well,
you know what, in basketball, home and playoff basketball, you
have to have contact.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
So if he's not doing contact yet, that's not a
good sign.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Dallas with Luca has pushed much better Clipper teams, much
worse mav teams to post thee. Now Dallas has Kyrie,
They've got a little better supporting cast, they got a
little better defense.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Meanwhile, La is just a little older, a little slower.
No Kawhi.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I think Dallas wins the game. I like Dallas to
win the series. I don't know when if we see Kahi.
Look if Dallas gets up three one and Kawai still
not back by game four, maybe Kay says, you know what,
I'll get ready for next year. The Clippers say all
they want. Hey, he works hard to get back all
this stuff.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
You know, he's never there when it counts.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
As great as he is, when he plays, as hard
as he works, he's never there when it counts. And
this is Look, it's doesn't matter what you do in life.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Whatever your job is, you need to be there.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
You need to show up. And he just he can't
seem to be there when the games count. So I
don't know how for the Clippers. You just keep going
go on with this. I guess you have no other option,
but I'll pick Dallas with the game.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
If he's officially ruled out, obviously we're gonna get some
sort of declaration before the game. Does this number move
or do you think it's already priced in at this point?
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Both it's priced in, but people, it's funny.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Even though it's priced in, you're gonna see You're gonna
see woes tweeted out, shams tweeted out, and then people
are gonna bet it even though it's.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Already I should say, oh, I got it. I gotta
get ahead of the number. What you're aready late getting
ahead of the number. But we will see it.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Sometimes you do see that a double move or something's
priced in, but then once official, you get that second move.
People just reacting, Oh now I'm gonna bet Dallas again
just because hey, I know for sure Kui's out.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So it is priced in. But I do think you'll
see probably a double move.
Speaker 4 (04:17):
He can maybe even say an overreaction because look, the
market doesn't think he's gonna play. But once it's official,
you'll see that. I think even tick up another point
point and a half higher.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
The third game of the day is in milwauk A.
It looks like Giannis Santekouba will not be playing.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
That's what all reports say.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Doc Rivers, just for the record, did say he's not
exactly counting him out just yet. Numbers haven't moved. It's
been Pacers once we all assumed Giannis would.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Not be going. I don't anticipate him playing.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
The total is also high at two thirty one and
a half in this one Pacers.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
It almost feels like a must win for the Pacers.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
If Jannis is in fact out and we don't know
how long, if he's coming back in this at all,
or if he really is, there's really visions of grangeur
that he could play sooner rather than later. How do
you handicap with that kind of uncertainty. Although I believe,
we believe Giannis is not gonna go, yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
I don't think there's any chance he on his plays.
I think it's interesting. Usually when you're the road team,
you're just happy with the split of the first two
and you go about your business and say, hey, we
did our job.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
The Pacers. I think there's.
Speaker 4 (05:23):
An impetus, a real emphasis on getting both of these,
and hey, let's not let Giannis get healthy and come
back to a series, whether they're up to one or
tied to to let's knock him out when we got
the chance. I don't quite trust Indiana. Milwaukee still has Liward,
they still have the experience, they still have home court.
I'll go with Indiana here. I do think they win
the game, but I don't. It's not something I feel
(05:44):
great about. I just Halburn hasn't been healthy again.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
This is a young team that's going to be a
loud building.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
I think people are just just from what I've heard,
people are kind of passing through Indiana saying, hey, Milwaukee
with no Jannest, they have no chance. I wouldn't go
that far. I think Indiana wins. I think they'll Probably
the most likely scenario is they do split the first
two games, So I think if Milwaukee lose Game one,
I think we'll probably get Game two or maybe vice versa.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
So I think we're looking at some sort of split.
I'll go Indiana game one, though two.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Thirty one and a and a half rather is the
highest total of the four games tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Can the Bucks make.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Up the points without Giannis or do you think this
might just be one way action Indiana.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
We know they can score, we just know they can't
defend either.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Yeah, it's tricky. I mean you figure the playoffs it
will slow down a little bit. But boy, sometimes these
Indiana lines, the total looks either the game starts and
you say, what have I done with my life?
Speaker 1 (06:33):
What have I done with my money?
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Here? I would lean towards an unders because it's the playoffs.
Maybe things slow down a little bit. Neither of these
teams has a lot of depth, but nothing I'm passionate
enough to bet on pellies.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
Okay, see last game of the day of the four
know Zion Williamson.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
That's for sure.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
They're getting eight and a half against the number one
seed here in the thunder total of two fourteen and
a half. If you think the Pelicans are live there
plus two eighty thunder and the money line US three
fifty five. Do we think the eight and a half's
in jeopardy? Or do you think this is going to
be one way traffic here for ok sing.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
The hell of a lot of points. It really is
a lot of points. But remember Oklahoma City's rested New
Orleans played Friday night the late game. So this is
two games in three days. And keep this in mind too,
we haven't seen it in a while. But when Oklahoma
City is good, that's a small little town.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
That building is loud.
Speaker 4 (07:24):
That building hasn't had a winner in a long time.
They lost a rant, they traded Westbrook, all this stuff.
They finally have a good team to cheer about. I
think New Orleans is walking into a buzz saw tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Again.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
The eight and a half does look a little heavy
just on paper, but the situation I think really favors
Oklahoma City. I'll lean towards laying it. How about this,
I got a tired New Orleans team. How about a
second half bet. You can't bet this. You gotta wait
till half time to bet it. Maybe wait till halftime,
and if it's four or five and a half, maybe
then you come in on.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Okay, so you figure New Orleans runs out of gas.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I do think that is going to be a buzz saw,
just a loud building tomorrow night. And just schematically, I
don't know how New Orleans scored. They just don't see
a lot of options. Oklahoma City's a good defensive team.
New Orleans, they just they don't have great options offensively.
They will do a decent job on Shay with Herb Jones, Alvarado,
the or Pesti little defensive team, So maybe they keep
the scoring down enough to keep it close. But maybe
(08:14):
New Orleans team total under maybe Oklahoma City in the
second half. If I had to later take it, I'd
actually lay, even though it does look inflated.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Well, let me get your pick your brain on one
baseball game tomorrow here very quickly, the Rains in New
York against the Yanks. When he's Gills is going to
be on the bump, Aaron Savali is going to be
on the bump for the Rays. This is pretty tightly
lined here. Yanks small favorites, mindstyle at thirty Rays plus
a ar ten. They got to win today against New York.
What do you make of this here? With the Yankees
at home as small favorites.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
I will go with the Yankees. Yankees at home.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
They've hit Savali in the past, so I've always not
a guy that's overpowering, so I think they'll be able
to score some runs off. And they had a horrible
day offensively today where they just couldn't get anything done.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
But Damp is not very good on offense.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
He'll can struggle with his control, he can walk guys,
but I'll go with the better offense the home team
in the Yankee year.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Any concerns after that great start for the Yanks, you
thinks that are still on schedule. Numbers have come down
with the Orioles and that division price a little bit.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
I mean they're not great defensively either. Starting pitching is
not great. They do have a good offense, but again,
long season. I do think we're looking at a very
long season. Long kind of raised Yankees and Orioles probably
comes out of the last month, maybe even the last week,
last series or so.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yep, I totally agree with that as well.
This is Fison's Daily Morning Bets. Here's your hosts, Dave
Ross and Will Hill.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
All right, we're getting that coffee.
Speaker 3 (00:08):
No sugar for Will and I in our coffees, that
is in fact fact, and we're going to get these
The table set here for the four games on the
docket today on a Sunday here in the NBA, starting
off early tip here, certainly in the West Coast and
also early on the East.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
That'll be the Celtics against the Heat. Right now.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
The seas fourteen point favorites in this one, with a
total sitting in about two oh nine moneyline.
Speaker 2 (00:32):
If you really think Miami's live.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
Without Jimmy Butler plus seven fifty, the Celtics rested waiting
minus twelve hundred to just win the game, Will Hill,
fourteen feels heavy, no buckets, We get that anyway. Eric
Spolzer can junk this up because I think if you're
betting the Heat plus the fourteen, you're betting on coaching
(00:54):
more than the lack of talent, which is clearly evident
without Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 4 (00:59):
Yep, you're betting and coaching, and you're betting on a
lack of focus from Boston You're not going to get
a lack of focus. The way Boston has Boston the
heat in the past, the way they lost last year
in that same building, they're gonna be in tomorrow. They're
gonna hear all week how you know the heat knocked
them out last year. They're gonna have that fresh in
their minds. And plus, Miami played Friday night with a
(01:19):
skeleton crew. Now they have a short turnaround to play
in Boston. Boston is going to bury the heat tomorrow.
I'll lay the points with Boston. And honestly, my favorite
bet is because you always worry about Hey, they're up
twenty too late and then they put the backups in
in Miami gets like a back door cover. Miami team
total under ninety six and a half, I don't see
how they score. They have no offense, no roads year,
no Butler. I don't know where the offense comes from.
(01:42):
Boston as good defenders everywhere. Unless Miami can just get
up a million threes and just shoot fifty percent with
the hot Canses of the world and Kevin loves which
who knows one game, anything's possible. I'll go under ninety
six and a half is my best bet here for
the team total for Miami. I think Boston absolutely rolls.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Does that wean need towards the overall under of two
oh nine?
Speaker 2 (02:00):
You concerned that Boston might get too many by themselves?
Speaker 4 (02:03):
Yeah, I don't like taking a fourteen point favorite and
the under just doesn't go together.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
I'd rather just.
Speaker 4 (02:07):
Miami team total under and maybe lay the fourteen with Boston.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
All right, I love that play as well. Let's take
a look at game two on the docket. It's out
in La La Land. The Clipper is going to be
hosting the MAVs. We do not know officially the status
of Kawhi Leonard. I believe the numbers indicate that he's
not going to play. Crazier things have happened. MAVs are
two and a half point favorites here on the road
in game one, and that total right now is sitting
(02:32):
at two twenty three. MAVs on the money line minus
a dollar forty two. If you think the Clippers with
or without Kawhi are live to win the game, they
are plus a dollar twenty Will Hill, What say you?
Speaker 1 (02:44):
I like Dallas. I don't think we see Kawhi.
Speaker 4 (02:46):
Last we heard he was practicing but not doing any contact. Well,
you know what, in basketball, home and playoff basketball, you
have to have contact.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
So if he's not doing contact yet, that's not a
good sign.
Speaker 4 (02:55):
Dallas with Luca has pushed much better Clipper teams, much
worse mav teams to post thee. Now Dallas has Kyrie,
They've got a little better supporting cast, they got a
little better defense.
Speaker 1 (03:06):
Meanwhile, La is just a little older, a little slower.
No Kawhi.
Speaker 4 (03:10):
I think Dallas wins the game. I like Dallas to
win the series. I don't know when if we see Kahi.
Look if Dallas gets up three one and Kawai still
not back by game four, maybe Kay says, you know what,
I'll get ready for next year. The Clippers say all
they want. Hey, he works hard to get back all
this stuff.
Speaker 1 (03:22):
You know, he's never there when it counts.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
As great as he is, when he plays, as hard
as he works, he's never there when it counts. And
this is Look, it's doesn't matter what you do in life.
Speaker 1 (03:29):
Whatever your job is, you need to be there.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
You need to show up. And he just he can't
seem to be there when the games count. So I
don't know how for the Clippers. You just keep going
go on with this. I guess you have no other option,
but I'll pick Dallas with the game.
Speaker 3 (03:41):
If he's officially ruled out, obviously we're gonna get some
sort of declaration before the game. Does this number move
or do you think it's already priced in at this point?
Speaker 1 (03:49):
Both it's priced in, but people, it's funny.
Speaker 4 (03:52):
Even though it's priced in, you're gonna see You're gonna
see woes tweeted out, shams tweeted out, and then people
are gonna bet it even though it's.
Speaker 1 (03:59):
Already I should say, oh, I got it. I gotta
get ahead of the number. What you're aready late getting
ahead of the number. But we will see it.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Sometimes you do see that a double move or something's
priced in, but then once official, you get that second move.
People just reacting, Oh now I'm gonna bet Dallas again
just because hey, I know for sure Kui's out.
Speaker 1 (04:14):
So it is priced in. But I do think you'll
see probably a double move.
Speaker 4 (04:17):
He can maybe even say an overreaction because look, the
market doesn't think he's gonna play. But once it's official,
you'll see that. I think even tick up another point
point and a half higher.
Speaker 3 (04:26):
The third game of the day is in milwauk A.
It looks like Giannis Santekouba will not be playing.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
That's what all reports say.
Speaker 3 (04:34):
Doc Rivers, just for the record, did say he's not
exactly counting him out just yet. Numbers haven't moved. It's
been Pacers once we all assumed Giannis would.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
Not be going. I don't anticipate him playing.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
The total is also high at two thirty one and
a half in this one Pacers.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
It almost feels like a must win for the Pacers.
Speaker 3 (04:55):
If Jannis is in fact out and we don't know
how long, if he's coming back in this at all,
or if he really is, there's really visions of grangeur
that he could play sooner rather than later. How do
you handicap with that kind of uncertainty. Although I believe,
we believe Giannis is not gonna go, yeah.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
I don't think there's any chance he on his plays.
I think it's interesting. Usually when you're the road team,
you're just happy with the split of the first two
and you go about your business and say, hey, we
did our job.
Speaker 1 (05:22):
The Pacers. I think there's.
Speaker 4 (05:23):
An impetus, a real emphasis on getting both of these,
and hey, let's not let Giannis get healthy and come
back to a series, whether they're up to one or
tied to to let's knock him out when we got
the chance. I don't quite trust Indiana. Milwaukee still has Liward,
they still have the experience, they still have home court.
I'll go with Indiana here. I do think they win
the game, but I don't. It's not something I feel
(05:44):
great about. I just Halburn hasn't been healthy again.
Speaker 1 (05:47):
This is a young team that's going to be a
loud building.
Speaker 4 (05:50):
I think people are just just from what I've heard,
people are kind of passing through Indiana saying, hey, Milwaukee
with no Jannest, they have no chance. I wouldn't go
that far. I think Indiana wins. I think they'll Probably
the most likely scenario is they do split the first
two games, So I think if Milwaukee lose Game one,
I think we'll probably get Game two or maybe vice versa.
Speaker 1 (06:07):
So I think we're looking at some sort of split.
I'll go Indiana game one, though two.
Speaker 3 (06:10):
Thirty one and a and a half rather is the
highest total of the four games tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
Can the Bucks make.
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Up the points without Giannis or do you think this
might just be one way action Indiana.
Speaker 2 (06:20):
We know they can score, we just know they can't
defend either.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
Yeah, it's tricky. I mean you figure the playoffs it
will slow down a little bit. But boy, sometimes these
Indiana lines, the total looks either the game starts and
you say, what have I done with my life?
Speaker 1 (06:33):
What have I done with my money?
Speaker 4 (06:34):
Here? I would lean towards an unders because it's the playoffs.
Maybe things slow down a little bit. Neither of these
teams has a lot of depth, but nothing I'm passionate
enough to bet on pellies.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
Okay, see last game of the day of the four
know Zion Williamson.
Speaker 2 (06:49):
That's for sure.
Speaker 3 (06:50):
They're getting eight and a half against the number one
seed here in the thunder total of two fourteen and
a half. If you think the Pelicans are live there
plus two eighty thunder and the money line US three
fifty five. Do we think the eight and a half's
in jeopardy? Or do you think this is going to
be one way traffic here for ok sing.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
The hell of a lot of points. It really is
a lot of points. But remember Oklahoma City's rested New
Orleans played Friday night the late game. So this is
two games in three days. And keep this in mind too,
we haven't seen it in a while. But when Oklahoma
City is good, that's a small little town.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
That building is loud.
Speaker 4 (07:24):
That building hasn't had a winner in a long time.
They lost a rant, they traded Westbrook, all this stuff.
They finally have a good team to cheer about. I
think New Orleans is walking into a buzz saw tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Again.
Speaker 4 (07:35):
The eight and a half does look a little heavy
just on paper, but the situation I think really favors
Oklahoma City. I'll lean towards laying it. How about this,
I got a tired New Orleans team. How about a
second half bet. You can't bet this. You gotta wait
till half time to bet it. Maybe wait till halftime,
and if it's four or five and a half, maybe
then you come in on.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Okay, so you figure New Orleans runs out of gas.
Speaker 4 (07:52):
I do think that is going to be a buzz saw,
just a loud building tomorrow night. And just schematically, I
don't know how New Orleans scored. They just don't see
a lot of options. Oklahoma City's a good defensive team.
New Orleans, they just they don't have great options offensively.
They will do a decent job on Shay with Herb Jones, Alvarado,
the or Pesti little defensive team, So maybe they keep
the scoring down enough to keep it close. But maybe
(08:14):
New Orleans team total under maybe Oklahoma City in the
second half. If I had to later take it, I'd
actually lay, even though it does look inflated.
Speaker 3 (08:20):
Well, let me get your pick your brain on one
baseball game tomorrow here very quickly, the Rains in New
York against the Yanks. When he's Gills is going to
be on the bump, Aaron Savali is going to be
on the bump for the Rays. This is pretty tightly
lined here. Yanks small favorites, mindstyle at thirty Rays plus
a ar ten. They got to win today against New York.
What do you make of this here? With the Yankees
at home as small favorites.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
I will go with the Yankees. Yankees at home.
Speaker 4 (08:42):
They've hit Savali in the past, so I've always not
a guy that's overpowering, so I think they'll be able
to score some runs off. And they had a horrible
day offensively today where they just couldn't get anything done.
Speaker 1 (08:52):
But Damp is not very good on offense.
Speaker 4 (08:54):
He'll can struggle with his control, he can walk guys,
but I'll go with the better offense the home team
in the Yankee year.
Speaker 3 (09:00):
Any concerns after that great start for the Yanks, you
thinks that are still on schedule. Numbers have come down
with the Orioles and that division price a little bit.
Speaker 4 (09:08):
I mean they're not great defensively either. Starting pitching is
not great. They do have a good offense, but again,
long season. I do think we're looking at a very
long season. Long kind of raised Yankees and Orioles probably
comes out of the last month, maybe even the last week,
last series or so.
Speaker 2 (09:20):
Yep, I totally agree with that as well.
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