With the eyes of Finance Twitter fixed on Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell coolly reminded the investing public that a pivot is not in the offing. And if there is no self evident pivot, then the fever dream that was this summer's bear market rally might right and truly be over.
Of course no one really knows as yet whether we're actually in a bear market or a bull market. Such is the divide in opinion around the Fed's actual willingness or ability to remain hawkish. Inflation might be the dragon of our time, in need of slaying at all costs. But is that even possible at the pinnacle of a generational debt cycle? Can the debt burden even coexist with a properly hawkish Fed.
Either way, volatility looks poised to increase. But will it be a garden variety oscillation higher, or a proper capitulation and puke that sends the VIX to 40? The fabled next leg down? We discuss.
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