4/11/24-Baseball Betting Show

Greg recaps Wednesday's MLB results, talks to Matt Williams of VSIN about the prop markets he’s attacking this time of year, how he looks at data this time of year with such a small sample size & looks at Thursday’s games, & Greg picks & analyzes EVERY Thursday MLB Game!

Spreadsheet link: https://www.vsin.com/betting-resources/greg-petersons-daily-handicapped-mlb-lines/

Podcast Highlights

2:54-Recap of Tuesday’s MLB results

22:41-Interview with Matt Williams

41:02-Start of picks Mets vs Braves

44:56-Picks & analysis for Brewers vs Reds

48:02-Picks & analysis for Pirates vs Phillies

51:42-Picks & analysis for Twins vs Tigers

55:36-Picks & analysis for Astros vs Royals

59:19-Picks & analysis for Athletics vs Rangers

1:02:54-DK Network Pick Orioles vs Red Sox

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Hey Warmer, Brody Low. Welcome to love you Las Vegas
for the Baseball Betting Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now
part of the Vson Family Podcasts and we've gotten excellent
podcast for you as Joining me in segment number two
the newest member of v SIN Matt Williams. He does
a tremendous job taking a look at so many things
in terms of NBA, MLB, NFL. He is the originator

(00:31):
of volume, builds character as well. He is going to
be joining me in segment number two. We're going to
be talking about some of the bets and some of
the props that have been profitable for him the first
two weeks of the season, what he's been diving in
on on that front. Will take a look at a
few games for Thursday as well, and then in the
final segment, gonna give you guys picks and analysis on
all seven games on the betting board for this Baseball
Thursday as we touch them all. If you do have

(00:52):
a question, comment segment idea what I have you for
this podcast? You do have one of two ways we
have for those in first one is my Twitter slash
x sideline at you and Nard forty one keeps they
mean does that matter? So, as we usual, please to
send these into the timeline. And the other ways find
an Apple podcast review. If you rate this podcast five stars,
it is very much appreciated. From there, you're able to
fire on whatever you'd like to hear on this podcast
via that five star review to not get in any

(01:13):
Twitter slash checks questions today. But we had a fun
day baseball on Wednesday. Let's take a look back at it,
try to find some trends and try to get to
know these teams a little bit better.

Speaker 3 (01:22):
Games for yesterday is Greg buzzing about. Here is the
rowdy recap.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Unfortunately for myself, my DK network cry to pick did
not come through. I had the Yankees laying a run
and a half on the run line and go figure
the Miami Marlins, who had covered two run lines all
season long. They get their second straight up win of
the season, five to two. The finalist, Aaron Judge came
up three times with men in scoring position and went

(01:48):
oh for three. Non ideal to say the least is
Ryan weathers he does, whether it's the storm three walks
three it's allowed in five innings, but no runs. You
do have Brian Hoying give up a home run as
John Carlosan gets his fourth home the campaign. From there,
you did see he runs surrendered by Anthony Bender in
a third of an ending as well, but Andrew Nardi
is scoreless, setting Tanner Scott one in two thirds innings

(02:09):
scoreless as well for the New York Yankees. Not a
good start here for Marcus Strom and gives up four
runs over the course of five innings, including a home
run to Jake Berger on his birthday. The Burger Birthday
Boy was able to get home run number three of
the campaign. From there, the Yankees bullpends relatively slid. Dennis
Santana gives up a run in an ending, but Luke
Weaver two scoreles settings, Victor Gonzalez scoreless settings. So the Yankees,

(02:31):
who had entered in ten and two in the Mighty Marlins,
who had entered in one and eleven, play a little
bit of a hair bring game. And that's baseball for
you kids, And this is also baseball watching the Milwaukee
Brewers all of a sudden go ballistic with regards to
their offense. How about them putting up a seventy two
win over the Reds. They have now scored seven plus
runs in four straight games for the Brewers. Para home

(02:53):
runs in this one as you get home run number
one of the season for Blake Perkins, who's all of
a sudden enning four hundred and Christian yealish. He looks
to be an MVP form home run number five of
the campaign. Hunter Green gives up both of those bombs
and got destroyed seven runs, six of which earned in
his six innings. Meanwhile, Pluck Farmer comes in for a
scroirrel of setting and the former Brewer Brent Sooner, he
comes in for two scoreless as well, and then Eli

(03:14):
Dayla Cruz he was able to go deep for home
run number three of the campaign. As this was not
a long start for Wade Miley just fifty two pitches,
gives up just one run over the course of four innings,
and then from there Bryce Wilson pretty much piggybacked off
of him, giving up this home run to Daia Cruise
and three innings Hobie Milder j B. Bucakis. From there,
they're both able to lend a squirrel of setting. Not
often that you see a game go to extra ennings

(03:35):
and a team lose by five in extra innings, but
we had that. On Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays fall
to the Seattle Manners six to one. The finalist for
cal Rawley, Big Dumper. He was able to have a
home run in this one, number two of the campaign.
As for Toronto, they squandered what was a really nice
art from Usakacucci, nine strike cuts, one run allowed over
the course of six innings. From there in a Pierson

(03:57):
a squirrel of setting. V. Guarcia provides scroll as set
and then things turned into a calamity from there, as
you saw Tim Maza give up four runs three which
will earn including that home run in a third of
an ending, and Mitch White comes in from there, gets
a pair of bots out the bullpen allows and earn
run in lone form of offense for Toronto, Fliger Junior
Solim run off of Logan Gilbert at number three of

(04:19):
the campaign, as Gilbert was really good seventy two thirds innings,
allows just one run along the way. From there, Andre's
munnos one and a third endings scoreless and Ryan Stanek
is able to hold down the fourth. He's able to
supply a scoreless setting as well as for the Toronto
Blue Jays. They go in this game a nice hearty
zero of six with men in scoring position. And this
team has been very good to the under right now,
your top under team is actually the New York Yankee

(04:40):
signed under three unders and he push next best team
to the under Minnesota Twins. They take down the Lli
Dodgers by a count of three to two. As we
did see quite a few dogs barking on Wednesday, by
the way, but for Bobby Miller wasn't long for this game,
didn't necessarily get destroyed. Gives up two runs in four innings,
including home run, but just didn't lend a lot of length.
A is going to deep off of him at Ward
Julienn number two of the campaign. Then he goes zap

(05:01):
off of Alex Vesia for his third home run season
as Vessio gives up ace home run in two thirds finning.
Michael Grove from there looked really good in relief, four punchouts,
doing a third an scoreless show. Kelly a scoreless setting,
but he only Dodgers couldn't get a lot going on
offense himselves. Chris Paddock gives up home run two Max months,
the second home run season for Paddock, gives up two
runs in four and two thirds innings. But this Twins
bullpen has been rock solid thus far. He had a

(05:23):
Brock and Roll Stewart, Steven Okirkgiffin, Jacks. I'll give you
a scrorell A setting, and then Ode I'll call it
Cody Funderberg. They provided eight pairabouts out of the bullpen
scoreless as well. Yeah, sell the Washington Nationals after they've
had some triumphs earlier in the series against the San
Francisco Giants. We'll have anything but that with Patrick Corbin
on the mountain seven to one the final for Patrick Corben.
He's actually been profitable for you if you have bet

(05:45):
on his start since the beginning of the twenty twenty
three season. But it's not necessarily due to his great pitching.
It's typically gets lucky with the Washington Nationals popping out
for a bunch of runs. And I gave up quite
a few years. Seven runs surrendered in five and two
thirds hangs. Derek laugh third ninning, Squrels Tannerini a squirrel
is setting and you did have Joey Yell good deep off,
jord Nicks a third home run season. And for x

(06:06):
he's looked really good as a starter thus far, one
run surrendered over the course of six innings. And for
Jordan Nicks, he's made three starts and he's given up
two earned runs three runs in total. Had Eric Miller
provided score as signing along for Landon Rop and Ryan Walker,
they were able to all supply a squirrel is signing
to be able to get the job done out there,
also being able to get the job done the Tampa
Bay Rays four to two. They were able to take

(06:26):
down the Ali Angel says it was Ose Sodiano, who
has been a reliever throughout his career at the big
league level, getting the start. Went four innings, gave up
four runs, so not ideal here. He did a lot
of home run to Ose Calabreo his first home run campaign.
From there, the bullpen was actually really good. Matt Moore,
two Squirrels, Satings, LUs Carcia, Adam Simberg, a couple of
the sevens all supply squirrel Is signing, and Joe A.

(06:47):
Dell does indeed set fire to the ragin first home
run of the season. That one comes off of Kevin
Kelly with Lase Solim run in one and two third settings.
For Zach Little, he only gives up one run in
four and third ninings, but allowed a lot of traffic
three walks says in that time span. For the l Angels,
they just couldn't do anything with it. They strain nine
men on base, but one of nying with men in
scoring position. And then Jason Adams, Philmton, Pete Fairbanks. They're

(07:09):
all able to supply a squirrel setting for the Rays
to be able to get back online. And for the
San Diego Padres. Spend an up and downcert to the
season for them, but they had a big time up
on Wednesday, they take down the Chicago Cubs by a
count of ten to two. Is don't cease against his
old city. It's a pitch for the White Sox. He
gives up two hundred and runs over the course of
six innings. Her By Halsung Kim Fielding eires. You had

(07:29):
the Cubs get a home run off the bat of
Michael Bush, second home run the campaign, and that's about
all they got. As a professor, Kyle Hendricks, he's getting
schooled right now twelve O eight e aary for the season.
Seven runs surrendered in five innings, including a pair of
home runs. He Rickson Profar and Jake Croninworth both get
home runs number two of the season. From there, you
had ose Qross come in for an ending giving up
a run, and Danielle Palencia he gives up two runs

(07:52):
over the course of two innings for the Padres, bullpen
holds down the ford as Yuki mat Suiy and Yo
de Los Santos and Jandy Peralta are able to supply
a score setting. It has been very interesting to watch
his Cubs team with their overs eight overs to four
hundreds as far the season. Right now, your top over
team is he Atlanta Braves, but they got washed out
against the New York Metropolitans yesterday, so we shall see

(08:12):
them in action today. And we have seen the Cleveland
Guardians actually play quite a few overs as far as well,
which they are not too much of a home run team,
but they are a team that moves the line. And
after they got down early against the Chicago White Sox,
they finded a way to be able to get the
job done, this by kind of seven to six as
they got down five to zero very early on. But
for the Chicago White Sox the bullpen is not so

(08:34):
great and Eric Fetty he was getting wopped late in
this one five runs, four of which were earned, giving
up in five innings, including a trial home runs. Josh
and Bow Naylor the Brother Act get in on it
bo's second home run season. Josh Naylor is sirt. Stephen
Kwan gets his second home run of the campaign. From there,
you had Tanner Banks, Dominique Leone along with Debbie Garcia

(08:54):
all on the squirrel setting, along Steven Wilson as well.
But then Brian Shaw gives up two runs, one of
which was earned in the heenning to blow the game,
and Gavin cheats second home run in the campaign that
comes off of one. Mister tayner Byby for Bibby gives
up five runs over the course of four and the
third innings, but his guardian's bullpen right now leads the
leg in era and they were tremendous in this one.
Kate Smith, Tim Aaron Tyler, Beattie, Emmanuel class A, Eli Morgan,

(09:17):
I'll land a scroll of setting and Nick Sandlin bairbouns
oide the bullpen scrore Is, so Cleveland Guardians find a
way to get the job done and for the White
Sox areable to cover the run line in this one,
but they have now started the season two and ten,
so that has been very much less than savory for them.
The Oakland A's had covered seven out of their last
eight run lines, not to be on Wednesday, the six

(09:37):
to two the Texas Rangers are able to get the
job done as Roster Uplin gets destroyed six runs undered
in six innings, a lot eleven hits along the way,
TJ McFarlan, Dani Ameniz, they both d his scrorell Is setting,
and Zach Deloff was able to get home round number
two of the campaign. That comes off of Yuri Rodriguez
who gives up that home run and it's ending of work,
but another good surf. Cody Bradford, who is quite unlucky
last season right now posting up a book forty year

(09:59):
a through three starts in two thirds innings, allows an
unearned run as he was hurt by a Josh Schmith
throwing air. But you did have Jordan Latz provide a
squirrel signing David Robertson he gets it out on of
the bullpen. And for the Texas Rangers, very good start
for them. They're off to a seven and five start,
so do you like to see that? And the blown
lead of the night goes to the Boston Red Sacks.
They were up five to zero against the Baltimore Orioles

(10:21):
and then they make like your buddy at the bar
and cannot close seven to five. The Orioles are able
to get the win as Jordan Westburg was able to
go deep for a three run shot off of Chris Martin.
That was his second home run of the campaign. As
for Boston, got a feel for Cutter Crawford. You'd like
to see a little bit more length here as he
walked for but five squirrel settings and then from there
Isaya Campbell gives up three runs at an ending. You

(10:41):
had Martin give up that home run, four runs, three
of which were earned given up in his ending of
work before Brendan Bernardino comes in allows nothing in his
two endings of work and Tristian Cossas he was able
to get a home run off of Cole Irvin, second
home run season as Irvin allows all five runs in
this one, five runs given up in five innings before
the bullpen holds it down. Craig Kim got a little
bit dicey, but squirrel Is signing out of him Keegan

(11:03):
Ake and two squirrels settings, so Mike Bowman was able
to provide his scirrel Is setting as well, so the Orioles,
they are able to get the job done. And for
the Boston Red Sox still about five hundred. But I
have to wonder how much of that start was due
to a little bit of a shall we say, favorable
schedule to begin the season. And it was very favorable
to you if you bet on the Philadelphia Phillies on
the money line. On Wednesday as well, they take down

(11:24):
the Saint Louis Cardinals by kind of four to three.
As for lanceln honestly not a bad start here. He
does walk forward, but he gives up just one two
hundred and runs over the course of five innings. And
then Andre Polani he gives up two runs without getting
it out of the bullpen. Zach Thompson has to come
in in long relief three and a third dining scrolls
before Andrew Kinchrich gets a pair of outside of the bullpen.
And for Saint Louis. They did have a pair of
home runs, as you had Brandon Donovan be able to

(11:46):
get home run number two of the season and their
catcher Ivon Herrero was able to go deep for a
third arm run the campaign. Those both come off of
Aaron Supernola gives up two sol runs over the course
of six innings. He did have Gregorysota get a little bit.
Dicey gave up a run in two thirds, but Matt
Trom Jeff Hoffman both supply at squirrel setting and sar
Anon do mingus he's able to get an out out
of the bullpen as well. And in terms of the

(12:07):
action that we did see on Wednesday, I was talking
about it the underdogs. They were certainly a barking as
you saw underdogs straight up on the money line goes
six and seven. With those plus prices, you were able
to make some nice coin and we did see the
undergo eight and five yesterday, so you still have more
overs than unders, but it started iron out ninety one
overs to eighty four unders with quite a few pushes

(12:28):
along the way. That's a fifty two percent hit rate
to the over end. If you're looking at favorites, overall
this season, think at just fifty twenty percent one oh
four and seventy six straight up. All road teams continued
to b rock solid as well, ninety eight and eighty
five straight up. So that's where we're seeing in baseball
right now, and that's what we all got on Wednesday.
Coming next, let's take a look at the games for
Thursday with Matt Williams along with the props and the markets.

(12:49):
They've been training him quite well to begin the season.
That's some next right here on the Baseball Betting Show
with myself Craig Peterson now apart to be Sammy.

Speaker 1 (12:55):
Buckets, breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (13:07):
Comberbank here love me Las Vegas, but the Baseball Betting
Show with myself Greg Peterson now part of the Vson
Family podcast. Always great to be joined by this man.
Matt Williams is doing absolutely excellent work taking a look
at the game of baseball, some NBA, NFL and so
much more over at volume builds character and along with
that the newest member of Vison As he's going to

(13:29):
be helping us out throughout the baseball season. Very good
to have him on the team as he's been used
out there in the northeast part of the country year.
It will fall on Twitter at his name Matt Williams.
But you want to substitute out the els the Els
and said are two seven, So Matt Williams with seven's
are placed for the Els and Matt. Always great to
have you a board.

Speaker 3 (13:49):
Thank you, hey, Greg, thanks for having me ready to
talk some baseball. So excited to have it back. I
tried to go to a game last week. I bought
tickets in advance because it looked like a week out
it was gonna be nice, mid sixties and sunny. It
was the film in Cincinnati that day where it got
moved from like one to seven and they basically ended
at midnight. So yeah, I didn't luck out with the weather,
but eventually I'll get to a game live this year.

Speaker 2 (14:09):
Absolutely. And what have you been making out the first
few weeks of the season, Because there's been a lot
of strange weather games have been going on, and despite that,
we have noticed quite a few overs. But over the
last we're gonna call it four five days, we have
been noticing those unders starting to come through as well
as weather has gotten just a gad bit worse.

Speaker 3 (14:26):
It's been really weird. Usually hitchers are ahead of hitters
in the beginning of the year. There's always some people
you'll love to fade, like your Tyler Anderson's or your
Marco Gonzalez and you know, guys like that. I've actually
been pitching really well so far. So it's been a
slow start as far as, like, you know, some of
the consistencies you'd hope for, but again, the season's just
getting started, so you don't try not to read anything

(14:46):
into too much. The data, as far as any advanced statistics,
doesn't even normalize until a month, month and a half,
sometimes even two months for some of the stats. Yeah,
it's been good so far, but some weird up and
down things. I guess the big thing besides the weather
is just the These are constant. But you know, as
far as betting goes, it's a daily thing, so that
doesn't really impact us much because it does like season
long fantasy or something. But it's been as somewhat of

(15:08):
a roller coaster. But hopefully it'll normalize soon as it
starts to warm up a bit yeap.

Speaker 2 (15:12):
Hopefully things will normalize a little bit. We've been seeing
some ups and downs for some of these teams, and
I do want to ask you just how you've been
gauging some of these lesser teams. As we did see
the Miami Merlins get the job done on Wednesday, but
they've been miserable. These have quite frankly, I actually have
been very good on the run line thus far the season.
If you've been taking a look at that, but you
got teams like the Colrad Rockies in company, how do

(15:33):
you gauge those sorts of teams, because I think that
if you do it right, you're able to get some
cheap prices. Meanwhile, if you've been doing things like fait
in the Oklones run line, it's been a rough search
of the season.

Speaker 3 (15:43):
Yeah, a lot of people like to go that direction.
But like, yeah, if you did nothing but bet against
the A's last year, as bad as they were the
run line, you still lose money because see odds dictate that,
like you know, you cannot make up for your losses
for the amount of wins you get, and that's just
always a bad thing to do. As far as the
lesser teams, I know, you're a full game guy completely.
I do love F five's like crazy, just because I
bet volume, so I like to cut down variants as

(16:04):
much as possible, at least earlier in the year. I
know who the pitchers are going to be, I know
what the lineup's going to be for the first five innings.
I go there, and that is actually a great spot
to pick on some of these underdogs, especially if you
have a decent pitcher on the mound. I bet the
White Sox F five with Eric Fetti on the mound
didn't work out for them for the full game because
they're an inferior team, But over five innings you can
try to, like you know, give away a half a run.

(16:26):
You can even win those bets in F five run
line with a tie. Yeah, those are good to look
at for the underdogs. I hate playing much with the
full game or online early in the year just because
it's just so many weird things happen as far as like,
you know, you don't know if some of these offenses
can get up to give you the kind of run support.
You don't know if the bullpens will break down and
give it away. I try to stay away from some

(16:47):
of the full game run lines earlier in the year,
especially with some of the lesser teams. But I do
like taking advantage in some of the short game bets.

Speaker 2 (16:54):
Yep. Absolutely, and I do think that you just need
to find what works out well for you. For me,
taking a look at these bullpens, being able to take
a look at just the full game works out. If
you're having a lot of success on the first five,
absolutely continue to roll with it. As Matt Williams, who
does tremendous work over here at Vson, is going to
be right here on the Baseball Betting Show. And what
have been some of the angles that you've been taking

(17:14):
a look at this season? Because I know that you
and I know that Frank Carmarante, who does great work
as well in this front of you guys do a
lot of player props where you're taking a look at
things like walks props. I know that you're someone that
you're going to dive in on a few strikeout props,
take a little bit of plus money in terms of
the home run front. What have been some of the
best for you this far this season?

Speaker 3 (17:32):
The most successful things I've been the walk props and
the strikeout props are always great or both of those
have been have been have been solid. The first three
and first five team totals attacking, starting pitching, sometimes, especially
earlier in the year, you know it hasn't warmed up yet.
Books tend to put the some of the team totals
at a lower number. You know, you can go for
the whole game total, but I do like to target

(17:53):
specific teams, especially in those first five or even first
three innings for example, Like I've been doing that with
the Diamondbacks a lot, or the Dodgers. If they're in
there against the starting pitcher, you know you're gonna do
some damage. Again, sometimes you can get some like one
and a half numbers in on some pretty decent offenses
and not pay a ton of juice maybe, like you know,
even for the Dodgers Arizona, sometimes you get a one
and a half in the first three for like you know,
minus one twenty or plus money. For the first five,

(18:15):
you can usually get around a two and a half.
Those have been working out for me really well, a
lot of like different interesting props. The just started getting
into the hitting props a little more. I always start
the year betting a little lower units as far as
the full menu of props. I do because I feel
more confident the data as we go along. But the
last couple of days, yeah, we've actually hit a few
home run props. I don't advise anyone to bet full

(18:37):
units on those. I love to pair them with a
either total basis or my favorite is HR hits runs RBIs.
You can find that at MGM, ESPN or DraftKings. You
can get those a lot at one and a half
and you know that's hits runs and RBIs combined. And
you can get those a lot of the time on
like five six hitters and high scoring teams where they
can maybe plus money a lot of the times, or
even star players. You can get them like minus one

(18:59):
ten has win fifteen sometimes and I'll pair that with
a home run prop like today we dging Carlos Stanton
yesterday he missed a home run by just like a
hare and of course he had a great matchup again.
And yeah, those are nice. We'll probably try to hit
on them more and more as a heats up. But yeah,
my main thing is if five in pitcher of props
are fantastic.

Speaker 2 (19:17):
Yep, they certainly are. And how do you take a
look at the data to begin the season because you
did just mention it. This can be one of the
most difficult times a year to be able to take
a look at baseball because you don't want an end all,
be all, twelve games sample size or anything like that.
The season is very fresh, Teams get out, teams will
get cold, mostly starting pitchers. They've only gotten two starts
as far, and that's just such a small sample size.

(19:39):
If you look on a scale to utilize football, for example,
like most starning pictures, if they stay healthy, that's thirty
two starts for them, that's essentially one week of the
NFL season. And if you watch one week in the
NFL season, try to utilize that data, people will be
calling you nuts. So how do you go about the
data this point of the year. Do you look a
lot at what we saw in twenty twenty three, try

(20:00):
to marry twenty twenty three, combined it with twenty twenty four,
just use a little bit of a different approach all the.

Speaker 3 (20:05):
Other Now right now, twenty twenty three, especially for pitchers,
is a lot better data than anything we have now
and less there's a tangible change if someone is heightened velocity,
if they've added a new pitch, if they change their mechanics.
That's why I say about tangible change. If there is
something they are doing that's different, that is making the
results drastically different than you, you have to take that
into account. Then you look at what they're doing right now,

(20:25):
you have to look at how the offenses is doing.
You know, you can rather than target pitchers that are
doing well to start this year, it's better to attack
offenses that are off to a poor start. Like Seattle
was striking out like crazy. You could got off the
hump and then they're still striking out. So attacking offenses
is a lot better. You look at the data this
year more and more, Like I said, the tangible change,
you want to kind of look at it starts to

(20:46):
weigh more and more this year. But right now, yeah,
you're still looking it the second half of twenty twenty
three and twenty twenty three as a whole, as your base,
as far as how a pitcher goes, and then as
far as who they're facing. You know, you'll see, like
you know who, different teams if they've added certain players.
You look at splits and how they perform versus certain
pitches in the arsenal of certain pitchers, how often they

(21:06):
throw those pitches, stuff like that, which you know, that's
a lot to get into, but yeah, most of the
data of that you're going off of last year still YEP.

Speaker 2 (21:13):
I agree with you there, and you don't want to
like completely ignore the twenty twenty four data at this point.
But if you're trying to base everything off of like
two starts worth of data, and I don't think that
that's the best way to go about it. As well
as you can get some very favorable slash unfavorable matchups
this early on during the season, as Matt Williams, who
does tremendous workover year at VSA, is showing to me

(21:34):
right here on the Baseball Betting Show. And when it
does come to what we've all got on the board
for Thursday, a little bit of a smaller card, you're
always going to get that with a little bit of
a travel day. But we do have some interesting circumstances
and I do want to dive in on this one
with you. It's see Baltimore Oriols taking on the Boston
Red Sox with graycier Rondriguez going for Baltimore. Garret Woodlock
for Boston. This is right round about minus one fifteen

(21:55):
that you're laying with Baltimore with a total between eight
and a half and nine. How do you engage your
matchup like this where we saw Boston just completely up
chuck the game yesterday and a guy and Grayson Rodriguez
is now who they have to go up against who
has been absolutely rolling since the back half of last season.

Speaker 3 (22:09):
Yeah, I love this matchup Grayson versus Garrett will Lock.
I mean I love Whitlock. He's someone that I'll look
to for like under one and a half walks. That'll
be up probably tomorrow morning, juiced to high heaven, So
you'll probably have to pair that with like a high
probability money line or something like Grayson love him right
now opened to over five and a half strikeouts for
his prop. I'm definitely all over that. It opened at
one thirty six. I think it's probably north to like

(22:31):
one sixty now if you like to pay juice that.
I actually think that's okay because I think this is
going to move to six and a half of strikeouts
instead of five and a half, So five and a
half's nice. But as far as the game goes, yeah,
When I first saw this, I thought it was a
little low for Baltimore as far as like the minus
one point fifteen, I'd have him as a heavier favorite
than that. This is a game where I'd actually be
fine going full game because Baltimore has such a nice

(22:52):
bullpen and it's not like there's a distinct offensive advantage
for either team. So go on the full Orioles money line.
I actually locked that in or when it was minus
one ten, which is beautiful. But for anyone betting, you know,
when they're hearing the show, it'll be more like one fifteen,
one twenty. That's fine too. If you want to cut
out the bullpen, you can get very similar numbers for
the F five money line that I think that you

(23:14):
can go the entire game and Baltimore can take advantage
of like kind of a poor Red Sox pen that
you can get the advantage there. So yeah, I like
Rodriguez over five and a half strikeouts, and I like
the Orioles money line here.

Speaker 2 (23:24):
Yep, I'm right there with you. I do like the
way that Grayson Rodriguez is rolling in. Certain they could
tick up a little bit more, but I would say
that as long as this can say below one thirty,
You've got a relatively good value there. And I know
that you take a look at walks props quite a bit.
How do you take a look at a guy that well,
he does offer a few more walks in someone like
a Hunter Brown who he's after a little bit of

(23:46):
a rough start of the season, going up against Brady Singer,
Andy Cancery Ross and with the Royals they're about plus
one fifteen to plus one twenty or so. And I
do think that this is an interesting one just because
with under Brown I'm just a little bit out on him.
Really good sell but just didn't know how to control it.
And I looked at Brady singierliset year as one of
the most unlucky pitchers in all baseball.

Speaker 3 (24:05):
Yeah, and Brady Singer is off to a great star.
I mean, he's been kind of lights out. Was fourteen
strikeouts and thirteen and a third. He allowed just one
run on five hits, albeit that was to the White
Sox and Twins. The Astros are not them, but the
Astros I don't think should be as favorite as they are,
except I don't think this is a game I necessarily
want to touch when I first saw this, like Houston
was like, I think it opened around one minus one

(24:26):
thirty five ish something like that. For the money line,
I was like, all right, I'm going to try to
see if I can grab the Royals here and give
up a half a run in the first five, But
that was already like minus one thirty five. I don't
want to do that because I think this will be,
you know, still relatively close. Brady Singer's good, the Astros
offense is still pretty dangerous. The only thing I find
here that entices me, and none of the lines are

(24:48):
out yet for it, I think possibly I was talking
about team totals, Kansas City's first five innings team total.
There's a chance they give us one and a half
the out auto take that. If it's too and a half,
we'll see what the the odds are. But if it's
anything like around even money, I go there. But yeah,
I'm hoping that maybe we get like a slightly juiced
up one and a half. Because the Royals appost to

(25:09):
the twelfth best weighted runs created plus versus right handed
pitchers this season, their narrative is there to take a
shot on the Royals here for sure, But I think
I'm gonna stay away for the time being and maybe
focus just on the Royals offense versus Hunter Brown. But yeah,
I do agree with you. This is very interesting. I
don't know how I'm gonna land as far as what
I officially do, but that's the least the way I'm
leaning at the moment.

Speaker 2 (25:29):
Absolutely, And then when it comes to just the restless
light for Thursdays or anything else that is catching your attention,
because we do have eight games on Thursday, which not great,
not terrible for a travel day. Sometimes you'll get a
few more, sometimes you'll get a few less. But I
think that you're taking a look at on a little
bit of a small slight for Thursday.

Speaker 3 (25:46):
The Pirates and Phillies. You get Jared Jones, Hichus, Ranger Suarez.
Everyone's all over Jared Jones. It was over five and
a half strikeouts earlier. It's already jumped over six and
a half, which is like plus one twenty five or something.
I'd be okay there going that I may even do
a little ladder with Jared Jones the Phillies. He's been
off to like a great start. He's facing Ranger Suarez,
which is who hasn't been overly fantastic. Pittsburgh isn't like

(26:06):
tearing the cover off the ball, but they've started off hot.
They've been very consistent. I think Jones can really do
a number on the Phillies early as far as strikeouts.
So this is another one with the first five giving
up a half run again plus oh five. That means
you can actually win your bet if its game is
tied after five, So plus point five in the first
five or minus one twenty. I love that. I don't
think I would probably go full game here because once

(26:29):
Jones is out of the game, Man, that Pittsburgh bullpen
has been somewhat disappointing. I don't think we want to
touch that necessarily. But the Pirates, I believe in Jared Jones,
and I think that is maybe a potential spot to
look at. And then the Brewers too. Starting is Freddy
Peralta versus Nick Martinez. You can get again my first
five innings is my thing. You can get the Brewers
money line right now, it's somewhere around like minus one

(26:50):
point fifteen. They have an obvious advantage on the pitching mound.
The Reds lineup is very nice there, but you're talking
about Nick Martinez versus Freddy Peralta. If you can give
me a push F five money lineup, if it's tied
to get a push, and that's like a big deal
as opposed to like a full game where you can't
that get that kind of thing. So if you can
get the Brewers for like minus one fifteen or minus
one twenty minus one twenty five even for a money
line at five, I love that.

Speaker 2 (27:11):
I do like that look as well. I'm going to
be on the Milwaukee Brewers myself with Freddy Perolta at
a pretty nice price, and I total between eight and
a half and nine out there in Cincinnati with Nick
Martinez on the mountain with Whey that the Brewers have
been hitting as well, might not be the world's worst
look as well. And something that is always a great
look is getting you a board. Matt. You're the newest
member here at vsin you're doing a great job covering

(27:32):
the great game of baseball. I know on top of that,
you're doing a nice job on the NBA front getting
set for football season as well. So love you get
people at home, you know what's all on to that
for you and how people can fall along on social
media and all the platforms.

Speaker 3 (27:44):
Sir, like you said, the newest member of the team
of Vson. You can find my MLB work I'm doing
on the weekends right now and on every Thursday afternoon,
I'll be on the Smart Money podcast, and then you
can find my work over at substack Matt Williams m
at t W I seven seven iams, Substa dot com,
and then over on Twitter. I always post plays and
betting advice over there as well. Again, METTWI seven to

(28:06):
seven Iams, thank you for having me on. Greg always
love talking baseball with you.

Speaker 2 (28:11):
It is always great to be able to get mad
at board. He's one of the best minds when it
comes to taking a look at this great game of baseball.
Every single time he joins this show, I feel like
we get just a little bit smarter. So big thanks
to Matt for joining me right here on the Baseball
Betting Show, now part of the VS. And Family Podcast
and coming next it is that time in the podcast
I give you pick something analysis on every game on
the betting board for this Baseball Thursday, as we catch them.

Speaker 1 (28:32):
Off, breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson, and.

Speaker 2 (28:45):
We're right your love me Blas Vegas for the Baseball
Betting Show with myself, Greg Peterson, now part of the
VS and Family podcast. Always great to be joined by
Matt Williams, who does an amazing job take you a
look at this great game that we all know and
love of baseball. Every single time he joins this show,
feel like we get a little bit smarter as he
takes a look at baseball from so many different angles
and does so all so well, so big thanks them

(29:07):
for joining me in the last segment. Now it is
that time the podcast. They give you picks and analysis
on every game on the betting board for this Baseball Thursday,
as we touch them all.

Speaker 3 (29:15):
If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg
has a side and a total on it, so it
is time to touch them all.

Speaker 2 (29:21):
Do you know if that, as per usual, any changes
are made to these plays gonna be listed up on
my Twitter slash checks feed at Juna underscoredy one. Very
simple in terms of the order goes National League games
first in time order and then the American League games
in time order. If we did have interleague games those
would be at the bottom, but we do not. And
I lied when we were talking with Matt, I said
we had eight games on the board. Unfortunately we've only

(29:41):
got seven games on the board, but still not a
bad board. And let's sivee in on a game that
we were only supposed to get yesterday, but we're going
to be getting today instead. Nine to one, I know
two on the betting board, the New York Mets they
have to road their facing gob against the online of Braves.
Alan Wynus is on the bump for the Braves, that
Osei Kitana is on the bump for the Metropolitans. Pretty
much the numbers that we had when this game was
pulled off the board yesterday is what we're getting right now.

(30:03):
The Braves are between minus one fifty four to minus
one seventy favorites plus one forty to plus one forty five,
then am around the Metropolitans. Nine and a half is
the total juices all over the place anywhere between minus
one fifteen to even money as he over unders between
minus one five two a minus one twenty eight. I'm
gonna be taking a look at the over did somebody
total at nine point eight bullpens are gonna have a
chance to be able to adjust a little bit. They're

(30:23):
gonna be able to have a chance to be able
to catch your breath after not having to play yesterday.
But still I do think that ose Kitana is doing
for a little bit of a rough year this year.
He had a north of fort era when he was
on the road last season, and he very much has
a pitch of contact guy. Last season he only got
right around about some point two strikeouts per nine innings,
did a nice job being able to keep the ball

(30:43):
in the yard. But now he has to go up
against a unit in the Atlanta Braves that they just
absolutely pound the snot out of it. And for ose
Kitana's a very small sample size of two starts. But
if you got Jude sixty one or in a fielding
depended out of five ninety four, so that doesn't have
to have you concerned. The command has been a little
bit off. And now if a face off against an
utline of Braves, even at then one through nine, this

(31:05):
team is absolutely locked and loaded. Marcel Soon has already
been able to ply five home runs, and then Matt Olson,
Austin Riley, Ozzie Alby's Michael Harris. They've all provided multiple
home runs already this season. At every single one of
those five guys are all leaving at least at Q
eighty six like you trying to spot the weak link
in this lineup. Brets Jadwick Trump, who's gotten six at bats.
He might be when he's out there, but even Jared

(31:26):
Kullnick what he's gotten his opportunity, he says, been able
to provide north of a five on our base. It's
just absolutely incredible with his braves. Lineup back Ronald the
good New Juniors right now, your biggest struggling piece is
that he won the MVP last year. Meanwhile, for the
New York Mets, it has been a struggle for this
Buncho Pete a Lonzo. You though he's not hitting for average,
he has been able to ply three home runs as
far this season and has been one of the best
players in all baseball last few seasons and home runs

(31:48):
on the road. Right now, it's Brett Eddy along with
the likes of Francisco Alvres, We're carrying this lineup. They
are all out of sorts. You've had DJ turn it up. Stewart,
Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor Alli below the sign of tourner.
But if you look at Lindor on Baseball Savan in
terms of expected batting average, he's gotten the most unlucky
this year. Is expected banging averages at two forty five.

(32:09):
He's sitting at zero eighty nine. I do think that
it's gonna come around from a little bit. I do
think that there's gonna be some positivity there. But I
think for the Mets, they're just gonna have a tough
time with this one. As the bullpend with guys like Ada, Mondavino,
Ode Lopez and company. It's not great, it's not terrible.
You've got Edwin Diez is one of the best closers
out there in all of baseball, and for the Alanta Braves,
they've done a nice job. I'll be able to couple
up some nice bullpend pieces. Pierce Johnson says, joining the

(32:31):
team last season, has been one of the better relievers
out there in all of baseball. He's been a little
bit up and down this season, but like what he's
able to provide for this team. It's been a little
bit tough for the Blakes of Teddler mansk Brazi Iglesias.
But these are good relievers that I do think are
gonna be able to find it here. But I do
think that for the Mets, they're gonna get a little
bit warmer with their offense. But I do think that
Kitana is gonna be giving it up. And then for

(32:52):
Allen went Onis, he posted up a five to twenty
nine yarra in it starts last season, and he did
have a lot of starts against lesser competition against the Bets,
why against Washington National swice, But this guy does have
some relatively good swinging miss stuff. I do think that
moving forward, he is gonna be a guy that is
going to be trusted and looked upon for the Atlanta Braves.
He's still a little bit young in terms of his

(33:12):
baseball career, not young in terms of years at twenty
eight years old, but at the minor league level was
getting about nine and a half straight counts to two
point two bucks ber nine and nining seven. When he
was at the big league level last year, was not
giving out a lot of walks. Has some decent swinging
miss stuff, so I do think that the Bets get
to him a little bit. But I do think that
in the end, the Atlanta Braves power the way to victory.
I was willing to take up to a minus one
o five on this run line. Right now, you're finding

(33:34):
a plus price on it in a lot of places.
It's right around about a plus one ten plus one
fifteen or so. So gonna be looking at the Braves
lane run and a half to go along this little
over down a three nine to four on the betting board.
It is the Milwaukee Brewers they throw. They're facing off
against HEAs Cincinnati Reds. Yes, we are on the Cincinnati
and they're on too. Nick martinezkinn to serve for them.
Freddie Beralta is on the bump for the brew crew
and the Birds between minus one twenty to minus one

(33:55):
twenty five favorites in between plus one oh five plus
one ten is that number? Since the eight and a
half to nine is the trouble on the nine the
under his minus won fifteen to minus one twenty the
overs any between even a minus one and five on
the e and af or just one fifteen minus one
twenty unders between even a minus one and five. This
time I told a nine point two I'm gonna be
looking at you over the Brewers all of a sudden
are pounding the tara on the ball. They were able

(34:17):
to get seven plus runs in each other last four games.
I don't know how long lasting is going to be end.
I don't think that Nick Martinez is the world's worst pitcher.
But at the same time, for mister Martinez, he's gotten
dead dude quite a bit. As far this season. He
has allowed eight runs in his first sent innings of
the season. Not bad with regards to command, not necessarily tremendous,
not going to give you a whole bunch of swings

(34:38):
and misses, as we saw that in his time with
the San Diego Padres and then for Priory Peralta. He's
always had his struggles in the months of March slash
April a north of fort Era throughout his career. In
the early goings, coming off of giving up three runs
in five and two thirds tanks against the Seattle Manners,
both the swings and missus, they're certainly their fifteenth streakouts
at eleven and two thirds tanks. Always has been a

(34:59):
very good pitcher in terms of being able to get
punch outs, but for the Milwaukee Burs it is very
much appearing that Christian Yellwich is the Christian Yealwich of old.
Five home runs already thus far as the season with
a four hundred on base. Just take a look at
this burs Unit, Bryce Terrang Sell for you, like Jackson Chario,
all these young guys are providing north of a two
eighty batting average, in the case of Freedlick and Terrang

(35:19):
north of a three seventy on base. William Domas has
been a little bit up and down again this season.
He just has never been the world's greatest in terms
of being able to get on base. Reee Hoskins is
supplying some boom, not necessarily getting on base a ton,
but already has a pair of home runs to his name,
and they go up against the since an Red Steam
then was a little bit dry at the plate yesterday.
But Gott Spencer sears off to a really nice season.
He and Elie day La Cruz both have three home runs,

(35:41):
both inning above three, and that is what you'd like
to see. But the guys that you rely upon to
get on base, so you need to pick it up
will Benson, Christian and Carnassio and Strange Johnson India callowing
a two to forty four lower India actually does have
a three ninety two on base, just has not necessarily
been able to give you like tangible hits. It's been
just finding away on base for him. But I do
think that that's going to be at a key. And
for the Reds it's an okay bullpen. It's not amazing,

(36:03):
it's not terrible. You can expect Martinez most likely to
give you five. And then you've got Fernando Cruz, who
two seasons ago was amazing. Last year was a little
bit rough for him. Lucas Simms is always the guy
that I've liked in the bullpen. Justin Wilson, he should
be able to give you somewere eltil he saw at
Ennings moving forward, but he's off to a rough start.
And then for the Milwaukee Burs this is one of
the best bullpens in the big leagues, despite the fact
that have been Williams is currently not in the full

(36:24):
Elvis Burero, Joe Pyops, these are really good setup men.
You've got Hobe Milner back in the fold. Love what
Ebner your rebate is being able to provide as well.
So I do think that the Birds should be able
to get out there and get the job done. End
for the Burrs, they are a white hot team and
one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball.
So I did something I told at nine point two.
I like the over one with the Burs something out
of minus one twenty six on the money line. Don't
want to go run line, but I'm going to lay

(36:45):
up to minus one twenty five with the Burrs to
go long with the over nine to five nine of
six on the bank board, the Philadelphia Phillies play still.
Pittsburgh priorates Jaror Jones goes for the Black Goes Rangers,
Warrez is on the bump for the Phillis. Phillies are
between minus one forty two minus one forty eight favorites
between plus one twenty four to plus one thirty is
your number on the buck of nine is a total
hundreds between minus one ten to a minus one twenty five,

(37:07):
and the overs any between minus one to five seeing
as good as a minus one ten and I'm seeing
one straight eight and a half out there as well
overs minus one twenty two under his even and I'm
gonna be taking a look at the under on nine
trying to get as good as use as eemaly possible
as I did something total and at eight point eight,
I actually really like what I've seen out of Jared
Jones as far this season. He was a solid swinging
this guy at the minor league level last season, but

(37:29):
thirteen strikecouts in his first two starts, actually leading qualifying
starts in the National League in terms of strikecouts as
of right now. Certainly I think that that's going to
fade to the abyss towards the back half of the season,
but on all, he's got a really good approach. He's
going to give up some more contact, but he's done
a nice job at Jersey command, which has been a
little bit of an issue throughout his career going up
against someone in Rangers for as who if you looked

(37:49):
at him from late May on, he had a few
starts early on during the season because he started out
the year on the injured lists that were a relatively rough,
but from like May thirtieth on from Memorial Day he
was able to post up a sub three fifty. Era
had a few struggles at home, but he has come
out of the gates relatively strong this far. This season.
Eleven strikecouts at eleven innings. Not known too much as

(38:10):
a swing and miss guy, but command has been great.
Just one walk in these first two starts. Now the
key for the Phillies. They need the bass get online.
You had Bryce Harper get that three home run game
about a week or so ago. Other than that, he's
done a big, giant nothing Burger Nicostianos, Kyle Schwarber, Harper,
I just mentioned Bryson Satt. All these guys are hitting
a two twenty or lower. Ewan Ross is very much

(38:31):
out there for his love and not necessarily for providing
outfense right turners off to a relatively solid start as
yet to ad a home run, but it's providing about
a three sixty on base. But Phillies are just not
approaching things very well at the plate end. With the
temperature and the overall weather that we're getting out there
in the northeast part of the country, it's not eating
conditions right now. Don't tell that to the Pittsburgh Priates.

(38:52):
Right now, You've got, I believe, seven different guys with
at least eleven hits. They have been absolutely just killing
the ball right now. Cabrian nas North of a four
hundred on base. Able to get some good production as
well out of Brian Reynolds about three fifty on base,
bare home runs for him. Onela Cruz he's hitting nearly
a threnner with a pair of bombs as well. Now,
you do need some of the guys at the bottom
of the fold, like Henry Davis to be able to
step up. Andrew McCutcheon is out there as a little

(39:13):
bit more of a veteran presence, but he hasn't been
able to very well. Rowdy Tell has has been able
to give you a nice approach o at the plate
right around about three d five on base, and I'd
like both of these bullpens for the Philadelphia Phillies. Typically
they do start out rough towards the being part of
the season. I do think that they're going to run
into Foreman. Bradta series against the Saint Louis Cardinals was
able to help them out straight through Domingos Ose Alvarado.
They've been in rough form thus far this season, but

(39:35):
you and your Marte since the back half of last
season has been a sneaky good reliever for the seamat strump.
He seems to be figuring it out as well. And
for the Pittsburgh Prayers, they are deal with an injury
to Ryan BARRICKI, barol as Chatman David Bennar in the
eighth and ninth inning. I do like them now. Bennar
had a little bit of a off COVID a bit
earlier in the week, but still with having some like
a hundred strand and with having ose Ornandez in the bullpen,

(39:56):
I do like the approach, Aaron. I do think that
this is going to be a little bit of a
Loris in game. Recognized the Rangers wars and in the
area that hovered ride around five at home during the
season last year. But I do think that things are
gonna be a little bit better here. Things are starting
to warm up in Philadelphia, but that's that. I do
think that we are still gonna see a little bit
of a lower scoring game with for Us doing a
nice job being able to keep them all in the

(40:16):
yard and the ross souff of Jaron Jones. But I
do think that in the end, the Phillies they figured
out a little bit more at the plate to be
able to get the job done. Set the Phillies out
of minus one forty seven. I'd like them on the
money line, and so I told it at eight point eight,
so year to nine. Looking at the hundred nine of
seven nine to eight down the bank board, the Detroit
Tigers playoffs to the Minnesota Twins. Bablo Lopez goes for
the Twins and Dreeks. Google's on the bump for Detroit,

(40:37):
and Detroit is a mid size favorite. Any between minus
one nineteen though minus one thirty between plus one ten
plus one fifteen is that number on the Twins. Seven
is total underds between minus one fifteen and minus one
twenty five overs between minus one five to one plus
one o five. I'm gonna be taking a look at
the over now. The question is can we get this
down to a six and a half overnight? That would

(40:57):
be very very nice, And I'm seeing one or two
six half popped up there. Typically I am not one
for laying like minus one twenty minus one twenty five
juice on totals. I would rather take like if I'm
between two totals, where I'm gonna be taking a look
at the over either way, like in an eight and
a half slash nine scenario, I would rather take the
over of nine at even money plus one oh five
rather than the eight and a half. I'd like a

(41:18):
minus one twenty. The exception is six and a half
to seven because when you go from a six a
half to a seven three to three, so you just
seed both teams to score three runs, you win your bet.
I think that that is just very very key. When
you get down that low, it is worth paying a
little bit more on the juice, so I said in
terms of the side, I did set the Tigers out
of minus one twenty eight as well, So I'm gonna
be looking there with this bunch. As Pablo Lopez, he's

(41:41):
been one of the most unlucky pitchers in all of
baseball last two seasons. Has gone out there and has
pitched relatively well this year five runs, four of which
earned in twelve and two thirds, sayings fielding did not
help him out in that game against the Cleveland Guardians,
but he's been able to control the hard contact, got
more than ten strikeouts per nine any say season, go
on treeks Google. They treated them with kids' gloves a
little bit more last season. And he is coming off
a rough start against the Oakland A's where he gave

(42:03):
up four runs and six and the third innings. But
you take a look at what Tarik Skouble has been
able to do when he's been pitching in the city
of Detroit, and he has been very, very good, to
say the least last year had a sub two fifty
ERA when he was pitching in Detroit. As a matter
of fact, you just take a look at his entire career.
So this band's all the way from the beginning of
his career in twenty twenty when he's been at home
three thirteen earra compared to a four to sixty one

(42:25):
ERA away from home, giving up about one point one
home runs per nine and innings has always been about
a ten strikeouts for nine. Enny guy and both of
these bullpens, they don't necessarily have flash, especially with you
on don On currently being out of the fold for
the Minnesota Twins. But that said, the Tigers, they just
have a bunch of guys are reliable. Shelby Miller, Andrew Chafin,
Alex Lang, Tyler Holten, Will Vest. These are all guys

(42:45):
I expect to have a sub three to five YARI.
And for the Twins, it's all about Brock and Roll
Stewart being able to give you some good endings. They
pick up Michael Tonkin, a nice long guy who was
with the team for the beginning part of his career
before being with Atlanta last season, Oreo College, Jay Jackson,
Cody Funderberg very deep and both of these lineups having
their issues now For the Minnesota Twins, five home runs
in their last two games, perhaps that wakes them up.

(43:06):
Edward Julienne as three home runs, but Julianne's also six
total hits, so half of his hits have flown over
the fence. You don't have a lot of guys other
than Alex Kurloff and Carlos Carea will been able to
do a solid job, will be able to move line.
Both of these guys hitting at three twenty four, and
then among other players that have at least three at
bats to their name, nobody else is hitting above a
two thirty seven. That's a big giant issue by your

(43:27):
bucks and has been a little bit out of Sourts
as yet to get a home run himself. We got
the lakes of Carlos Santana, Willie Casro, Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner,
Max Coupler, allending a one twenty five or lower forget
the Mendoz line of two hundred, they're well below that. Meanwhile,
for the Detroit Tigers, Spencer Troklesen, off to a rough
start to the season, inting just a two hundred, has
yet to get one to go over the fence. Though
Riley Green has been able to give you three home

(43:48):
runs as an essay resulted in a great average out
a two of five. But he's supplying a little bit
of power. Markana, yes, he can give you about a
three seventy two on base pair of home runs as well,
but they're in a little bit of rough form other
than j Rochelle who's made at about a three eighty seven.
But I do think that both of these teams are
gonna have their best wake up. And again I'm not
asking for these teams to do a ton on offense.
These are two teams are very much based around their pitching.

(44:08):
But I think that both teams can be able to
reach three runs in the spot so here at a
seven like MC mostly will be willing to go over,
being able to get right around like even money plus
one oh five with like a six half a little
bit more though, and for the Tigers one to layup
to a minus one twenty seven on that money line
nine nine nine ten on the banking board, they can't
say Royles players to the easton Astros on Brown is
on the bump for the Astros, and Brady Singer hopes

(44:28):
I have the Astros singing the blues for the Royals,
or Royals are an underdog any between plus one fourteen
plus one twenty four between the minus one thirty to
minus one thirty five, then number on Houston nine is
a total unders ninus one fifteen, the overs minus one
of five sircas a straight eight and a half out
there the overs minus one fifteen. The under is minus
one oh five. Personally, the widely accepted number right now

(44:49):
of nine. I would be taking a look at the
under on, but I would rather have that eight and
a half at minus one fifteen over as of right now,
just looking at the board. With Brady Singer, he was
one of the more unlucky pitchers in all baseball season.
I do think that he's going to be set up
for some success this year. He had a fielding dependent
that was about a half point lower than his actual
era and first Singer he has come out and he

(45:09):
has been tremendous a season. I combined thirteen and a
third innings at his first two starts, has given up
just one run. Now, those two starts came against the
Chicago White SACKX in the Minnesota Twins, so I'm going
to take that with a little bit of a grain
of sealt. But he's been able to work on the
walks the last few seasons. I like his approach, and
for Hunter Brown, he's just in bad form right now. Now,
I will say this about Hunter Brown. He actually pitched
significantly worse at home last year rather than on the road.

(45:31):
I have no idea how. I have no idea why.
Because the Houston Astros they were just unable to hit
at home last season, so they just had all sorts
of problems when they were at home. But for Hunter Brown,
he was able to post up an ERA about two
points lower when he was away from home rather than
when he was at home, and his command was a
whole act a lot better six fifty six home. He
ra three eighty ERA on the road in terms of

(45:54):
walks per nine when he was away from home about
two point three pots for nine innings. Meanwhile, at home
that ballooned up to north of four. So I have
no idea what to make out of that, but he
is a relatively good swinging miss guy going because say
he can't say, Rals seem that they are up and
coming with reguards to a lineup. Bobby Witt junr is
off to a tremendous start to the season. But it's
not just him. You've been able to have he salvad

(46:14):
Our Perez or on their, Mike Calgarcia, MJ. Melendez, Nelson Alaskaz,
I'll be able to give you multiple home runs for
Alaskas is a nice power hitter that's right now giving
you nearly a four run base. Chursey has not a
necessary move line a lot. He's been to provide a
lot of power. And then Salva Our Paris hitting above
a three. I really like these guys. And if you
could give Vinnie Pascantino going, he missed the back half
of the last season due to injury, looked very good

(46:35):
prior to injury. That's gonna be big for the team
as well. And Jordan Alvarez, he's he's back online. He's
been able to give the team four home runs. North
Over four, arm Bas Joseel two, Bay three home runs
north of four arm base. These guys are rock solid,
but Alex Bragman having once again a relatively slow start.
Nolan runs. He's starting to get on base a little
bit more, but it's been a rough start to the
season for him, and it's been a top heavy asters Steve.
The guys in the middle have been tremendous, but like Josebrau,

(46:59):
Chans mccorm, Jake Myers, Mauricio Dubal, John Singleton, these are
all guys hitting below two twenty not necessarily providing a
lot of poppend This Astros bullpen just is not the
same as it was a few seas ago. You've got
Brian Obrad, whois relatively solid. You've got the eighth and
ninth inning of Ryan Presley, a loon, Josh Hater, who
I like both of these guys. Feels like both of
these guys might be a little bit overrated. But whereas

(47:19):
you had someone like a Ryan Stannic Ector Harrison past years,
now you're lying pomped guys like Taylor Scott and he's
throw a lot of money at Josh Hater, who I
think he's gonna be able to get online, but he
hasn't been great this far. Meanwhile, for the cancer roles,
this is a terrible bullpen. I wish I could put
it in any other way, but James MacArthur is not trustworthy. Honestly.
I like John River coming over from the Boston Red Sox,
but Will Smith gets way too jiggy with it. Nick

(47:41):
Anderson has washed up. You've got Chris Trandon who's not
necessary too tremendous. But I do think that Brady Singer
delivers a little bit better start than under Brown. I
saw my total in they need point nine, which is
why I was saying I would rather have the eight
and a half over rather than the nine under, because
I do think that the Royals bullpen could very easily
gas can this game, but I'm gonna be willing to
trust in them at a plus place anything of a
plus one h nine or higher. I like the Royals

(48:02):
on the money line, and taking a look at the
eight and a half that I'm seeing at circa over
nine eleven, nine to twelve on the betting board. The
Oakland Triple A's that throwad face off against any Texas Rangers,
fifty five shades of John Gray's on the bump for
Texas and JP Sears is going for the A's and
the A's to find themselves as underdogs and between plus
one fifty two same signs a plus one sixty. Meanwhile,

(48:22):
for the old Texas Rangers, seeing as low as a
minus one seventy as high as a minus one eighty,
the Ons game is nine and a half unders minus
one fifteen, the overs minus one oh five. And if
you're looking at the run line in there for a
deal to lay a run and a half with the
Texas Rangers, you're only getting about plus one oh five
to plus one ten. And I just need to be
getting a little bit of a better price in general
on this one. Now, I don't want to lay a

(48:44):
minus one twenty five to take a run and a
half with the Oakland A's. Personally, I'm just gonna play
the Texas Rangers out of minus one seventy or less
on the money line. I typically don't lay this sort
of juice, but with the Oakland A's, they've honestly been
able to do a good job and be able to
cover the run line seven and two on the run
line in last nine games. A lot of those were
one run losses. Now, and a few straight up wins
along the way as well, so you're on that risk.

(49:06):
And for John Gray, he certainly has not been the
world's greatest pitcher. To begin the season, he gave up
five runs against the Chicago Cubs, got his act together
in that start against the Houston Astros, but only lasted
three and two thirds dyings because he was walking the
world Now. I do like the Texas Rangers and what
they're able to provide in the bullpen much more than
a season ago before they were dealing with Chris Drant
and Will Smith. Guys like that. They bring it in

(49:26):
the offseason, Kirby Yates. They also bring in David Robertson.
That really fortifies a bullpen that has a guy in
Jake goob Lapps who's relatively saw was able to clark
at his issues towards the beginning part of the series.
But I do like what they're able to provide, and
there's a lot about it. The sexist Rangers team is
able to outslug the old Oakland Triple A says, you've
got a Rangers team that has at the top of
the fold a trio of guys that are probably gonna

(49:48):
provide twenty five plus home runs this season. Adulas Garcia,
Marcus Simeon, Corey Seeger. For Garcia, he's providing nearly a
three arm batting average. Simon and Seeger both in the
north of a four hundred in terms of their on
base and then the middle of the full so relatively sawid.
Travis Jankowski has been very good at being able to
get on base. Jared Walsh coming over from the Angels
about a three eighty five on base. He's got some
nice pop in the bat. You do need to get

(50:09):
Evan Carter a little bit more online, but all now,
this team has been very solid there. And for the
Oakland A's, they've done an okay job of mixing a
match Zach a Loft JJ Blayday. They've got a little
bit of a upside. Shavee Langelaire has had a three
home run game a little bit earlier in the season.
And Abraham Torro is a guy that has just been
passed around with with the Astros, was with the Seattle Mariners.
I've always believe he's had a little bit of upside.

(50:29):
And for the A's right now, the shining part of
this team and the reason why They've had a lot
of won round losses, and I've been able to say
in it the bullpen is supplying a sub to fifty era.
Mason Miller, I believe should still be a starter, but
he's actually turned into a really nice eighth and ninth
inning piece. Lucas Sersage has not been terrible in the bullpen.
He actually began his career in the infield of the

(50:50):
Milwaukee Brewers. Has had a nice second Stanza. Danny Ameniz
has relatively solid as well. But JP Sears He's given
up nearly one point nine one runs for nine. I
think's a very strange with JP Sears. He pitches in
a very pitcher friendly ballpark out there in Oakland. His
ERA was about a half a point lower when he
was away from home rather than when he was at home.
He got more swings of missus last year with about
eight punchouts for nine ennings. But I do think that

(51:10):
the Rangers are going to be able to get to him.
I do think that this is going to be a
highest scoring game with John Gray. Just stop finding it
right now, said I total to nine point six. I
do like the over, but with the Rangers at a
minus one seventy or less. I'm going to be trusting
in the money line just because I don't want to
lay a run and a half with the way that
the Oakland A's have been performing thus far, and I
really don't want to bet the a's money line as
well in this sort of an ordeal, So looking at
a chalkier money line and this total over which once

(51:33):
again do that very rarely, but we always have to
be just looking for the profit where it is, and
this will lead to the DK network right to pick
to wrap things up. Nine thirteen, nine fourteen. On the
banking board, the Baltimore Orioles are on the road facing
off against the Boston Red Sox. Garrett Woodlock is on
the bump for the Sucks Good race and Rodriguez is
on the bump for Baltimore and Baltimore and he were
between a minus one oh seven to a minus one
fifteen favorite, and we're between a plus one oh two

(51:56):
slash plus one of five see as bad as minus
one of five out there on bosted eight to nine
is a total on the eight and a half over
his minds one eighteen the unders minus one oh two
on the nine. The unders minds one twenty and the
over it is even, and I'm gonna be taking a
look at the under in the spots that might total
an eight point six, but by right up here is
on the Orioles would be willing to go up to
a minus one thirty three, and I would not doubt
it if this goes off the opener of a ride

(52:17):
around about minus one oh eight to minus one fifteen
or so. So it's something to take a look at.
Because the Boston Red Sox completely up chuck the game yesterday.
They had to use up a whole bunch of bullpen pieces,
and typically you'll see the team come in against a
team that completely gascan the game a day ago, and
that's something to watch out for. Both of these teams
entered into Wednesday with relatively similar bullpenny areas, but this

(52:39):
is the Boston Red Sox bullpen that is unreliable, to
say the least. Having to use up Chris Martin Isaiah
Campbell for sixteen plus pitches yesterday, that's less than ideal.
Those are two of their better pieces. They've got ken
Lee Chansons stilling the bullpen. Josh Minkowski is able to
deliver a little bit of length, but you have to
have your concerns with Garrett Woblock going deep in this game.
For Garrett Woodlock, he's put together two relatively nice starts

(53:00):
in terms of not giving up runs. He's only given
up one in run in his first two starts, but
he's only completed nine and a third innings as well.
He is by trade a little bit more of a
reliever and he just take a look at what he's
done coming out of the bullpen as compared to as
a starter. It's nine day for his career. Would Lock
four forty one era as a starter, eight point seven
strike cuts, one point four home runs allowed, bern and

(53:20):
Nnings on the bullpen, ten point two strikeouts for nine
Ennis two sixty five Yarra with just one home run
allowed Bernie and Ennings and Grays Rodriguez and is turning
into a cy On candidate. He had a really rough
go of at the first time he was called up
from the minor league level, but ever since he got
called up that second time around last fourteen starts spent
days back to July of two thousand and twenty three
to twenty five. Yar with a fielding independent below three

(53:42):
zero point six home runs to two point four walks
allowed pernin and innings. He faces off against the Red
Sox lineup that was certing the American League in runs
per game last season when they were at home, but
just a turner Adam Devaal two of their top four
home run hitters from eight season Togo are gone and
shock Shocks a prize surprise. Trevor's story's back on the
injurless who have seen that coming. But you've had a

(54:02):
up and down Red Sox team, to say the least.
Raphael Devers has not been great, to say the least
this season, hitting below the Medel's line of a two
hundred mouths to Tako Yoshida. He doesn't provide a lot
of power, and I mean know he's providing a two
twenty five banning average that's not honceessarily too tremendous. And
then the young guys Emmanuel Valdez, a DNA Rafael, they're
not producing now. Jared Duran has been good at moving

(54:22):
line about a three seventy five on base, but they
just don't have the same power that they had a
season ago. Sands Tyler O'Neal, who's been amazing. Six home
runs for Tyler O'Neal that is towards the top of
the big leagues right now. But for the Oriols, they
just have more balance. In general, you got a lot
of guys that I think are going to be resulting
this season with about twenty to twenty five home runs.
Other than Anthony Santander, I don't think that a lot
of guys are going to be breaking twenty five, though

(54:43):
Ryan Mountcastle might have something to say about that. But
Gunnar Henderson, Atlie Rushman, Jordan Westberg, Ryan O'Hearn, these are
all guys that do a nice job be able to
go yard for you. Cedric Mullins is off to a
rough start to the season two fifty five on base,
but we saw him a few seasons go be one
of the most consistententors in all baseball. I think that
he's going to be able to pick it up. Ali
Rushman is just really good at being able to move line.
And for the multiple Orioles, because they used Craig Kimberl yesterday,

(55:06):
that means that they're probably not going to go to
them today. That's actually a nice added bonus, and I
mean that is worth like five to ten cents to me.
In my opinion, you don't have to deal with them
because now you get Danny Columbi and your cano, Dylan Tate,
Jacob Webb. These are all usworthy guys other than Tate.
Everyone's supplied to sub three five year last season, and
Tate when he was fully healthy two seasons ago was

(55:26):
as well. And then for the boss of Red Sox,
they are a bullpend that they used up quite a
few of their pieces yesterday. And I do have faith
here Grace and Rodriguez to be able to get the
job done. So my DK network try to pick that's
on the Oriols on the money line, won't delay up
to the minus one thirty three there and you're at
the nine going to be looking at the owner. And
now we're wrap things up for the Thursday edition of
The Baseball Betting Show, now part of the VS and
Family podcast. If you do like fearing from this fine podcast,
The Baseball Betting Show, you're up to subscribe werver your podcast,

(55:49):
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(56:10):
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