5/9/24-Baseball Betting Show

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Breaking down every game, every day in Major League Baseball.
This is the Baseball Betting Show. Here is your host,
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
Welcome a loove be Las AGAs for the Baseball Betting
Shoe with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the BES
and Family Podcasts. We've got a great podcast for you
as joining me. In segment number two, we're gonna have
Sean's roller board. It does great workover at Action Network.
We're gonna break down everything that we have on the
slate for Thursday. Couple with that, we're gonna take a
look at a team or two that he thinks could

(00:30):
be able to get a little bit warm, that might
be at or below five hundred that he thinks is
gonna be able to pick up a little bit of
steam what he's made on the high amount of unders
thus far this season as well. In the final segment,
gonna get you guys picks in analysis on every game
on the betting board for this Baseball Thursday as we
touch them all. If you do have a question comment
segment of what have you for this podcast, you have

(00:51):
one of two ways vo far those in first one
is my Twitter slashacks timeline at you and n under
forty one. Keep in mind Leursium. Maybe he knows I'm
at our size er usual. Please you said these into
the line the other ways finding an Apple podcast review.
If you rate this podcast five starts, it is very
much appreciated. From there, they're able fire on whatever you'd
like here on this podcast. Five That five starview did
not get in any Twitter slash x questions today. But

(01:12):
we had a fun day baseball on Wednesday. Let's take
a look back at it. Tried to find some druns
and try to get to know these teams a little
bit better.

Speaker 3 (01:19):
Games for yesterday? Is Greg buzzing about? Here is the
rowdy recap.

Speaker 2 (01:23):
Yeah, he's in. Rangers split a pair in their double Edder.
First game goes to the Oakland A's nine to four
of the final. As for Michael Lorenzen, he just had
to eat it in this one. Six runs surrendered in
six innings, including a pair of bombs going deep for
the Oakland A's Shaye Bangs Shay Leanngelaires is ninth home
runs season. Then you know, home run number three of

(01:43):
the season for Brett Harrison, his third in the last
seven days, as Brent Rooker would go deep a little
bit later. That was home run number nine of the season.
As that comes off co winn he had to fill
two innings, gave up three runs along the way, and
for the Rangers they got a pair of home runs
of their own, both off of JP Series. As Series
gives one up to Lady Tavers his second home round
the campaign and Marcus Simmins seventh for mister Sears. He

(02:07):
gives up four runs in five to two thirds innings,
but enough to be able to get the w as
Mason Miller two scoreless settings with four punch outs. He
has been amazing this year in Austin Adams. He's got
a sub one fifty year. He's able to get four
outs out of the bullpen scoreless as well. And then
things got nutty in Game number two. The Texas Rangers win,
but it got close as the final in this one,

(02:28):
twelve to eleven is for both of these teams. They
both score either five or six runs in the final
two innings. Both went for five and five runs apiece
in those final two innings. As Jack later well, he
got lighted up. He gives up six runs, four of
which were earned over the course of four innings, including
a pair of home runs going to for Oakland, Shaye
Langelaires shape bangs first night home runs season. Then it

(02:51):
was home run number one of the season for Tyler Soderstrom.
From there, the beginning of the Rangers bullpouend was not bad.
Jordan lasts a squirrel of signing David Robertson two score
of settings with five strikeouts, and then ose La Clerk
gives up a run in anning. You had Kirby Yates
have to come in. He gives up a run in
an ning as Owen White did not get a single out.

(03:12):
He gave up three runs, and for the Rangers they
go nine to twenty with Bennett scoring position. As they
get to as Waldobdo starter in this game, gives up
four runs in two and two third sennings. Michael Kelly
gives up three runs two over turned in a third
of an A. TJ. McFarland two score of settings. But
you had Kyle Mueler from there give up three runs
in three innings, and Easton Lucas gives up two runs

(03:32):
over the course of his innings. So that was an
all over the place game. And for Oakland, all of
a sudden they're starting to play some overs, and we've
been seeing a lot of overs from the Milwaukee Brewers.
They are playing sixty percent of the games the over.
That is the highest rate in the big League. Sad
they fall to against the Royals by account of six
to four, but put up a pair in the ninth
ting to be able to cash hit over its carry.
Sanchez a little bit earlier on in this game, gets

(03:53):
home run number five of the season. As Brady Singer
was very solid in his start, gives up one run
in five and a third innings. From there, you have
Nick Anderson give up that home run. He goes two
thirds of a nine and giving up a solo run.
Will Smith and Alzetapa from there combined for a Squirrel
signing Chris Strand a squirrel signing, but Ty Duffy the
deaf Man, does not deliver. He gives up two runs
while getting just one out and then James McArthur gets

(04:15):
the final out of the game to be able to
get a save, and Bobby Wi Jr. He's able to
go deep off of Joe piamps his fifth home run
season as Joe Ross fills five innings but gives up
three runs along the way. In Piomps gives up three
runs as well, but got just one out of the
bullpen as you had Kevin Arroget get a pairabouts himself,
Brian Hudson two Squirrels signings, but for Piamps been a
little bit of a rough search to the season for him.

(04:37):
It's also been a very rough search to the season
for the Pirates offense, but they did enough to be
able to catch our t can over Corret to pick
from Wednesday. Of the over five to four, the Angels
are able to get it done as Jose Solertiano. He
gives up four runs in four and two thirds signings,
but bullpen from there was pretty solid. Adam Simber, Matt Moore,
they both go one and the third inning Squirrels, Lewis
carf See he gets a pair of outs on the

(04:57):
bullpen and Carlos Stevis Squirrels signing for him. Joe and
Ell sets fire to the rain. He is able to
get his fifth home run season that off of Martin Peetz,
who gives up four runs and five innings himself. Louis
Ortiz gives up a run in then ending from there,
gonnolder Man a role as Chapman hunter straight and they
both supply a squirrel setting, but damage by then had
been done, so we would gladly take that one. Cardinals

(05:20):
and Mets got postponed on Wednesday, but this did not
the outpers of runs up there a Coors Field the
San Francisco Giants. They get the win by account of
eight to six as dy Nicks not a bad start
considering his cours Field gives up three runs over the
course of five innings. From there, you did have Camellia
develop pitching on back to back days, does give up
a home run two runs a total in his enning
of work as it was Eliasis getting a start home

(05:43):
run season, but he also did have Taylor Rodgers getting
out out of the ballpen. Sean Hegel. He gives up
a run in two thirds of nightning, but Bryan Walker
and the other Rodgers and Ty Rodgers both supply a
squirrel setting. Michael Confardo, he supplies home run number six
of the season off of Peter Lambert, who did not
have a great day out there. Seven runs surrendered in

(06:03):
three innings, including that home run. Anthony Molino, who has
been awful this year, one under and run allowed in
three and two thirds innings, so he held it down
justin Lawrence's squirrel signing. Jake Bird far outside of the bullpen, scoreless,
but not enough to be able to get his team
to the window. The Atlanta Braves they completely shut out
the Boston Red Sox five to zero. Chris Sale against
his former team, he was dealing ten punch out six squirrels.

(06:25):
Settings did give up six. It says for Boston they
go oho of six with men in scoring position, they
leave nine men on base, and well, they gave Nick
nick Pavetta's first start in a little bit over a month.
And this Sinakoa was playing. Five runs surrendered in four innings,
including a trio of bombs Marcel Zuna home runs number
eleven and twelve. He now leads the Lake in home
runs of the campaign. In Orlando, Arcia, Oh I see

(06:47):
it with your third home run the season film, Lee
was able to fill two squirrel signings for Atlanta and
Ray Kerr squirrel setting in. From there, the Boston Red
Sox bullpen was actually quite good. Jase Anderson came boogier
along with Chris Martin Josh Binkowski all lne to scorel
Is setting, but Damage had already been done, and this
is damaging for the Houston answers. They are currently in
dead last in the Al West, twelve and twenty four

(07:10):
for the Houston Asters, says they fall by kind of
nine to four to the New York Yankees, and this
has just been a miserable run for Houston, who's now
thirteen and twenty three on the run line. Did have
Kyle Tucker go deep his eleventh home run season, and
Jeremy Pinya is fourth for Penia. He goes deep off
of Victor Gonzalez, gives up that home run in two
thirds of f nine in Ampleton, gives up a run

(07:31):
of one and the third innings as well, But for
Carlos Hoddan, despite the fact that he gives up that
home run to Kyle Tucker, still relatively Salizark gives up
two runs at six and a third innings. Cale Ferguson
parabouts out of the bullpen, score lesson for the New
York Yankees. The a tf On Spencer Arraghetty, who allows
three home runs in the first three innings of this game.
Aaron Judge John Carloson both with their eighth home run
of the campaign. One Soto is ninth for Aarraghedtty gives

(07:54):
up five runs of five innings, including three round trippers.
Now up to an eight forty four year Ash gives
up three runs in a nang Ralfio Monteto he's able
to end a squirrel setting, and Taylor Scott gives up
a run in an ning. So in a rough state
of affairs for the Houston Asters, it's some awesome way.
Their run line record is better than that of the
Miami Marlins, who they fall to the Ellie Dodgers by

(08:15):
count of three to one. For Miami, they had Ryan
Weathers giving not so bad stort. He gives up three
runs in six innings to allow home run to task Ernandez,
then th home run season from their Anthony Maldonado and
Ornardi both lend a squirrel is signing, but low and
form of offense for Miami. Brian Da La Cruz eighth
home run season that comes off of Gavin Stone, who
was pretty incredible, gives up that solme run in his

(08:36):
seven innings of work. Michael Grove Danny Hudson from there
both lended squirrel is setting him for the Eli Dodgers.
They win this game going two of two with men
in scoring position. You don't see that very often. You
haven't seen a whole lot of unders with regards to
the Cleveland Guardians either. They've been one of your best
over teams in all baseball. In ten innings they find
a way to persevere. Five to four they take down

(08:57):
to the Detroit Tigers. For the Guardians, by the way,
twenty over fifteen hundreds and two pushes thus far the season.
As ree Oulsen good start here for the Tigers. He
gives up two runs, one of which was earned in
six innings, only allowed one hit in total, so he
did his part. From there, Joey Wentz gives up an
underrun and one and a third inning says the repair
of vers out in the field that were costly Jason
Fully he gets a pareabouts out the bullpen, scoreless as

(09:19):
well Andrew Chafin from there, though does give up a
Soulom run going deep for the Cleveland Guardians, Dylan Frye
was able to get a second home run of the
season that led to extra innings and that led to
an unrivaling as for Alex Lang. He gets a pairabouts
out of the bullpen before allowing a game winning single
from Brian Roschio. And for the Cleveland Guardians, this is

(09:39):
not necessarily what they were hoping for out of danner
Bybee four runs given up in four innings, but the
bullpen had his back hunter gadd his two squirrel settings
sam andages Nick Samlin. They combined for three squirrel settings
in a man new class. A score is ten to
thy Veterans, sim will win. The Philadelphia Phillies had been
quite hot, as they had a home winning streak of
eleven games entering into Wednesday. That comes to an The

(10:00):
Toronto Blue Jays get a five to three win. As
Chris Pass said, Brady darn solid in this one. Gives
up two runs at six and a third. Nnings to
have George Romano give up a run in the ninth,
but hearns the save. And for the Blue Jays, this
bullpen has been suspect, to say the least. To Mason,
though pair of outside the bullpen's act pop he's able
to lend a squirrel of setting in for the Blue Jays.
They go five to fourteen with men in scoring position
and Aaron Nole right now looking like either a number

(10:22):
four number five option for the Phillies not necessary because
he's pitch horrible. It's not necessary to Aaron Nolas Sanders,
he gives up four runs in five to two thirds hangings.
That's just because the rest of rotation is looking really good.
Through an threw to mingez Os de Ruiz both fund
to squirrel is setting and Rdion Kirking. He gives up
a run in his ending of work Mats drump and
not out of the bullpen himself. But for the Phillies

(10:43):
that wins streak, it does come to a little bit
of an end. And this is a bunch has been
able to put together a relatively nice streak of losses,
but they snap that. On Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox
four to one, they take down the Tampa Bay Rays.
The White Socks are now four and two against the
Tampa Bay Rays and five and twenty against the rest
of the Legas Paul de Young is able to go
deep off of Aaron Saval his fifth home run season

(11:05):
for a Savali gives up two runs in four and
two thirds innings. From there, Ken mc kelly gives up
two runs in his one and a third innings. Edwards,
you said a two squirrel Senningsvan wal Rodriguez a squirrel setting,
but absolutely nothing doing for the Tampa Bay Ray says
it was a career night for Chris Flexen. He gets
eight strikeouts, gives up one run in six innings. From there,
John Brebia gets five outside the bullpen squirrel Steven Wilson

(11:26):
gets an out of his own before Michael Kopek comes in.
He's able to get his third save of the season.
With a squirrel of setting. You're able to have a
lot of squirrel of settings out there in the city
of Cincinnati as well as the Arizona Diamondbacks. They find
a way to persevere. Four to three, they're able to
take down the Red says for Arizona. They go just
two a twelve pen in scoring position, but Andreo Chinos

(11:46):
what is comes up big the former Cincinnati read third
home run season that comes off of Lucas Simms says.
For Cincinnati, Grant Ashcraft not really the start that they
were looking for. Three runs surroundered in five innings. From there,
Lucas Sims gives up a home run. It is senning work.
Fernando Cruz two score of Sennings. Brent Soonter gets a
squirrel sending himself and for the Red se coaches two
of eight with menon scoring position as well as Joan

(12:08):
Montgomery only strikes out two, but did a nice job
being able to keep the Reds off the board. Gives
up just two runs over the course of seven innings.
Ryan Thompson a Squirrels signing, and then from there Kevin
Ginkle does give up a run in a third of
niting Patroe Manicaply, he's able to come in get the
final two outs of the game to be able to
lend a save the Minnesota Twins they've been eating up recently.

(12:28):
This bunch has won all but one out of their
last fourteen games. Six to three. They're able to take
down the Seattle Manners as George Kirby gives up a
trio of bombs four runs a total over the course
of five innings, going dy for Minnesota. It was home
run number two of the season for Carlos Corea, Willie
Caster gets a certain Trevor Larnish his third and for
Chris Paddock, very nice startier ten strikeouts, gives up a

(12:49):
solim run in five and a third innings going d
for Seattle. Mitch Carver It's fourth home run in the campaign.
From there kill Theobard does give up a run and
an ENnie and Griffin Jackson does get jacks up. He
gives up a run and one two thirds ns, but
you wanted on squirrel senning. That's able to net them
a save and also being able to net a win
in a wild and crazy game, the Baltimore Orioles seven
to six, they take down the Washington Nationals. Tolon's game

(13:12):
was eight and a half and after nine innings it
was three to three, So feel free if you had
the under in this one. As for Baltimore, Kyle Bradish,
he's able to lend a relatively solid start nine strikeouts.
He gives up one on over course of five innings,
and then Craig Kimberl in the ninth. Then he made
things way more interesting than they needed to be. Gives
up two runs at two thirds of ben ending, including

(13:32):
home run going to for the Washington Nationals. Eddie Rosario
third home run season and he has been miserable this year,
by the way, but he near Canos Cenel Perez thank
you bye for two squirrels sayings, and then Danny Kaluma
squirrel sending Keegan akan ed to get the final out
of the Knights to be able to push things too
extra innings and then from there Albert Swarez two runs,
one of which was aren't given up in his two
innings of work by Jacob Webb. He's able to lend

(13:54):
an ending where he gives up the under and run
in the twelfth, but it's able to get the win
and for Baltimore, three home runs in this one as
Mitchell Parker give up a pair to Anthony Santander and
Gunner Anderson Anderson as leventh of the season and santanderra
is sixth, and then Ryan Mountcastle in the eleventh, thenning
off of Hunter Harvey gets his sixth home run season.
Frvey gives up two runs, one of which was turned

(14:16):
and is ending work and for Mitchell Parker, the two
home runs that he gave up both solo shots, all
that he would give up in five and two thirds innings.
Derek Laudough he gives up a run in two thirds
of n Enning, Robert Garcia what's pot litisen is two
thirds of vent enning, Jacob Barnes, still Flora, Kyle Finigan,
I'll land of Squirrels signing, but Jordan and wiens he
gives up two hundred runs and is ending the work,

(14:36):
and that turns out to be the difference in the game.
The difference in this one was the fact that the
Cubs just could not score three to zero. The San
Diego Padres find way to be able to shut out
the Cubs and get the job done. Don't cease what's
on it. Twelve strikeouts, seven squirrel settings. Jannie Peralta, Robert
Swarez both lend of Squirrels signing as a cup they
think get one total light in this one. Aiden Mizensky

(14:57):
gives up three runs and six innings from there, d
All's lay, Richard Lovelady goodbye for true Squirrel signings. Keegan
Thompson Squirrel signing wasn't the sharpest of performances from west Newski,
but even if he gave up one run, one run
would have been a one too many in this circumstance,
and in this circumstance of the MLB regular season, we
have been seeing a whole lot of things be underwhelming

(15:18):
overall for the season, but last seven days the overs
are starting to get a little bit warmer. Forty three overs,
forty three unders, few pushes along the way. Favorites have
really been able to clean use over the last seven
days fifty seven and thirty two straight up on the
money line. If you look at the last thirty days,
we have been noticing a big under Trent two hundred
and twelve unders, one undred and seventy overs with a
few pushes along the way. That's fifty five point five

(15:39):
percent to the under overall for the season. The under
hitting at just below fifty three percent two hundred and
eighty unders to two hundred and fifty one overs overall
for the season as well for favorites, he had about
fifty eight point nine percent three twenty four and two
twenty six on the money line, and we'll talk about
that a little bit more with our good friend Schun's
roll on the flip side. And we also did see
terms the action on Wednesday eight overs, six hunderds and

(16:02):
a push. So that's where we're all taking a look
at a baseball right now, and that's what we all
got on Wednesday. Coming up next, we are going to
be talking with Shawn's roll about the high amount of
unders that we've seen thus far this season. He's gonna
share a little bit on underdogs. We'll take a look
at the Thursday games as well. Right here on the
Baseball Betting Show with myself Greg Peterson, now a part
of the Beeson Family.

Speaker 1 (16:19):
Vacasts breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball.
Greg Peterson, Pepper.

Speaker 2 (16:33):
Rag You'll love you Las Vegas for the Baseball Betting
Show with myself Greg Peterson, now part of the Vison
Family podcast. And it is great to be driven by
this man of Shawn's roll. He does an absolutely tremendous
job overright action. Now we're taking a look at this
great game of baseball.

Speaker 3 (16:48):
On top of that, I know that he.

Speaker 2 (16:49):
Was very busy over the last week or so as
he also does a great job on the UFC front.
As you'll see three oh one out there Brazil was
a good time. Sewan does an amazing job on both fronts,
and ear will fall onto x at Sean's role. So
it's first and last name and that last name is
spelled Z E R I L O altogether and Sewan
always great to get your board.

Speaker 4 (17:09):
Thank you, yeah, Greg, thank you for Abby Always a
pleasure to join you and nice to get a little
break for the next UFC pay per view and before
the pre mistakes, you catch me here on a good week.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
Absolutely, it is a fun time and for those that
love horse racing, man that was an exciting Kentucky Derby
as well. You don't get too many photo finishes quite
like that. It is a good time of year for sports,
and it's been a good time of year if you've
liked unders as sean, thus far the season, entering into Wednesday,
the underrated baseball has been right around about fifty three

(17:40):
or so percent, And just what have you made out
of the last month or so where it feels like
unders have been very much a norm because a lot
of people like to talk about how bad the bullpens
are and everything like that. But if you've been betting unders,
you've been making money over the last three days.

Speaker 4 (17:55):
Yeah, it just seems like the relievers really weren't sharp
that first week of the season, and you know, over
were cashing pretty wildly during that first week, closer to
sixty percent. But then, as you mentioned, over the season
it's fifty three percent, and since four to one, since
April first, it's fifty five percent to the under to
six point six percent ROI if you just straight at
the under and every game, if you were placing one

(18:16):
hundred dollars units and just betting one hundred dollars flat
on every game, you'd be up nearly thirty two units
over the past month and a week just betting the
under on every game. So definitely been interesting to see
how the bullpens were struggling to start. Thought it might
have been the pitchclock, thought the balls might have been uced,
have good evidence or had good evidence pretty quickly that
it wasn't the baseball. It's just because the drag rates
lineup with previous seasons. Seemed like maybe there was an

(18:39):
adjustment period for the pitchers with the new pitchclock, runners
on base, Maybe they just weren't wound up or fully
ready for the season after spring training. You know, could
have been a lot of reasons why, could have just
been variants in that first week of the season. But yeah,
since then, hundreds have been doing pretty well, and I
would assume the overall total, the average total got inflated
for a little bit after that first week. People assuming

(19:01):
that the overs were going to keep hitting, and then
as a result the books just inflating totals up across
the board. It seems like everything has come back down
though over the past couple of weeks or so and
neutralized that the unders keep hitting. No real idea what
to make of it, aside from over adjustment for the
books and overreaction for the public after that first week
unders cashing for a little bit, but now that it's

(19:22):
been adjusted back, like, I don't really have a definitive
reason why they're continuing to cash at this clip, you know,
aside from like poor weather early in the season, you know,
maybe worse weather in the country than we're accustomed.

Speaker 3 (19:32):
To it this time of year.

Speaker 4 (19:33):
I feel like there has been a lot of games
we're've been betting the under with the windy and are
in cooler temperatures. And now for the coming days, for
the coming weekend, it seems like temperatures are finally getting
up into the seventies and the eighties around the country,
so it's maybe be getting a little bit more favorable
offensive weather coming up. So yeah, the under has definitely
been the story thus far, and also just the fact
that the underdogs are cashing like you would expect them

(19:55):
to last year around this time, we couldn't stop talking
about the fact that underdogs were getting de minus fourteen
percent ROI through April of last season. And again, if
you were one hundred dollars straight better flat better, you
would have been down fifty seven units in April of
last season. And this season they pretty much went dead
even in terms of expectations, and they've had a poor

(20:15):
start to May. But thus for our underdogs playing up
the expectations, whereas they fell on their face to start
last year and definitely put a number of US dog
betters in the hole.

Speaker 2 (20:23):
And I do think that taking a look at a
certain type of underdog as well, because there's three teams
that I feel like, if you take them out of
the fold, underdogs are doing very very well. And that
would be the three obvious ones, the Colrad Rockies, the
Chicago White Sax and the Miami Marlins. Three three teams.
It just feels like our head and shoulders below everyone else.
And I'm not sure if you feel the same way,

(20:44):
but you take those three teams out, the other underdogs
have been quite plucky. And if you take those three
teams out, underdogs have been quite profitable. Yeah, that's actually
very interesting points. I can go ahead and do that
on our action labs. Filter's going to.

Speaker 4 (20:57):
Check all the teams and then unchecked, as you said, Colorado, Miami,
and then who is the third the Chicago White Sox. Yes,
of course, how could I forget? So yeah, I mean
that's a very good point, Greig. So yeah, if I
filter out those three teams, underdogs hitting at a forty
six percent rate, turning at three point seven percent ROI
without those three teams included again one hundred dollars better

(21:18):
flat better would be up about sixteen units this point
in the season. So yeah, I made a very good
point made, and I've largely avoided betting on those teams
this season.

Speaker 3 (21:26):
You know, I sort of made a business decision.

Speaker 4 (21:27):
Whereas in past years have been trying to bet these
terrible teams like they are any other team. This year,
I kind of came in just saying to myself, I'm
not gonna bet the White Sox. I'm gonna find reasons
not to bet on them. There's other teams that I'm
going to find reasons not to bet on, and It's
definitely worked out in my favor not betting on the
White Sox a lot this year.

Speaker 3 (21:45):
And you know, I may have missed out.

Speaker 4 (21:48):
On teams like the Nationals who have overperformed, having low
on coming into the season, but you know, in the
same respect, I've had the trade off of not losing
all that money on the White Sox and on the Rockies.
Very good point made there and something interesting to think about,
you know, instead of taking the entire league as a sample, maybe.

Speaker 3 (22:04):
Filtering out for outliers, and we talked about some data points.

Speaker 2 (22:07):
Yeah, absolutely, and sure maybe once in a great while
you'll get that one cash here and there on the
Chicago White Sox, but you don't have to feel salty
about that one win when they go on these five
plus game losing streaks, as it has been a rough
year for those three teams.

Speaker 3 (22:22):
As Shawn's roller does absolutely amazing work. All right. Action
Nowork shoined me right here on the Baseball.

Speaker 2 (22:27):
Betting Show, and I do think that we've got an
interesting seven games slate that we're going to be getting
on Thursdays.

Speaker 3 (22:33):
We really don't have too many of those big underdogs
right now.

Speaker 2 (22:36):
The Rockies are the biggest underdog, and they're ironically enough
at home. But I am very fascinated by this Arizona
versus Cincinnati game with Harder Green going for them slats
and Sony on the bump for arizonas the red Star
bottom minus one twenty favorite and a total nine.

Speaker 3 (22:51):
What do you make out of this game?

Speaker 2 (22:53):
With two teams that there were some expectations for in
the National League. I don't think that there were a
lot of people saying that these would be like we're
series contenders or anything like that. But that's that both
of these seams are below five hundred and in my opinion,
could really use a win on Thursday.

Speaker 4 (23:07):
Yeah, the Diamondbacks, you know, obviously some pitching injuries, with Merrill, Kelly,
Zach Allen still showing declined stuff relative the last season.
I know he's pitched very well, but I do expect
like slight regression for him at some point. I'm actually
kind of on slates to Cony. He really pops up
on stuff plus later boards and seems to be a
pretty decent arm. But overall, like the corpor Carroll thing

(23:27):
is just a complete mystery. You know, he seems like
he's playing injured. His power has been severely depressed since
that swing that he took last season that seemed to
reinjure the shoulder injury or reaggurate the previous shoulder injury
that he had, so they're still putting the ball plays on.
They're going to be a very annoying team to play
against for a lot of pitching stots because they don't
strike out. Hudter Green, I think is an interesting matchup

(23:49):
because his entire profile is getting strikeouts against people. It's
sort of like unstoppable four sets a movable object with
Green trying to strike out this Diamondbacks lineup. They've sort
of binged runs and certain games and then really got
on cold streaks elsewhere. So it's been a tough to
gauge this Diamondbacks offense on the night that they're really
going to fire. But no value for me at current lines.

(24:09):
If I got plus one ten or better on Arizona,
I probably played him. I make this game about even
money on either side, so plus one ten really for
either team would be a bet for me, and I
make the total about nine point one, so no better
on them totally either.

Speaker 2 (24:22):
I do think that that's gonna be one of the
more interesting games, as both of those teams are looking
to rise up and just when you take a look
like wide, is there a team that might be a
few games off the pace as of right now, much
like the Reds and the Diamondbacks are two teams that
they're a little bit below five hundred, but obviously they're
not getting like destroyed or anything like that that you
take a look at. Maybe they're off to a little

(24:43):
bit of a cold start to the season that you
could see picking it up and you can see getting
back into the playoff race.

Speaker 4 (24:48):
Yeah, I mean the same division the San Francisco Giants.
They're pitching once Lake Snell comes back, if he comes
back healthy, somewhere comparable to what he was last year,
even if he's, you know, ninety five five percent of
what he was season. I think they have a really
deep rotation with keep winning, Logan Web and Jordan Hicks.

Speaker 3 (25:05):
Like I'm really high on Kyle Harrison.

Speaker 4 (25:07):
I think there's gonna be ballparks that aren't favorable to
Kyle Harrison because he just throws a ton of four
steamed fastballs and gives up a high number of five balls.
So if the wind is blowing out or if he's
playing in a park, isn't going to be super favorable
to those five balls.

Speaker 3 (25:19):
I think he's gonna have tough nights, but he.

Speaker 4 (25:21):
Really lines up with well with the Oracle Park, and
I think he's going to continue to pitch extremely well
at home. He is some pretty big home road splits.
The one I guess concerned I would have his Logan
Web strikeout rate, and the strike up at his wall
grade is pretty far down in the season. He's still
getting a lot of weak contact and still getting a
number of innings, but I'm always concerned any time I
see that at the declining strikeout right it's just a
matter of what San Francisco gets out of their offense.

(25:41):
But they kind of remind me of a National League
version of the Mariners, where you're not one hundred percent
sure what you're going to get up from the offense.
Mariners offense might be a touch better, but the bullpen
of the pitching is just so deep. They have such
a high flour to kind of be a five hundred team. So,
sitting in sixteen and twenty or sixteen and twenty one
right now, I think Giants are much better than they've
played thus far. And once Blake Snell comes back and

(26:04):
they get that rotation turning every single day with the
legitimate starting pitcher in there, like a number three or
better starting pitcher in there on a daily basis, it
just gives them a very high floor as a team.
So I like the Giants if that rotation stays healthy
to kind of grind their way to a decent record
throughout the summer and maybe slip into the third wild
card spot.

Speaker 2 (26:23):
And I'm so glad that you did mention the San
Francisco Giants, as they are the biggest favorite on the board.
They're playing our good friends of the Coloride of Rockies,
which I'm going to go out here on the limb
and say that plus one thirty five, but plus one
forty not enough of a shot to be able to
take a shot on the col Ride Rockies. But what
I'm very interested in with regards to this game is
a total opens up at nine and a half at

(26:44):
corps Field. And want to get your thoughts here, because
with the Coloride of Rockies, typically it is a bunch
at the eight better at home rather than on the road,
and stale has been the cases here. But even at home,
the Colrad Rockies have been a below average offense. And
it just blows my mind as to us seeing nine
and a half totals that course field, where usually you're
seeing these totals more like eleven plus.

Speaker 3 (27:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (27:05):
Absolutely, I think it's just also been bad weather there too.
In terms of Thursdays like conditions, it's fifty one degrees
at first pitch with six to seven miles an hour
winds blowing in from center field. So that is enough
to knock down the course field park factor by at
least five percent, ten percent or so, and I think
that's how you get closer to a total projection around
nine point seven to five or ten. So maybe a
touch flow, but I probably need minus one oh five

(27:28):
even money if I'm going to bet an over nine
and a half, not as interested in a minus one ten.
So yeah, it does seem like a lot of these
totals for the Rockies have crept below ten this season
at Ovit Coursefield. I think a bunch of it though,
has been due to poor weather and poor conditions. I'm
sure as it warms up over the summer you'll see
those ten and a halfs and eleven and eleven halfs
and maybe even the twelves and thirteen's start popping up again.

(27:49):
But over the past few seasons, the Rockies are the
worst team by WRC plus against both left handed and
right handed pitching. There have been a little bit worse
against lefties than rightings, but they're just absolutely a busy offensively.
And unfortunately, it doesn't seem like it's a situation that's
going to fix itself anytime soon, or an organization that
is going to progress beyond fifth in the NL West

(28:09):
anytime soon.

Speaker 2 (28:11):
Yeah, I mean, man, the mismanagement of the Colorado Rockies,
it has certainly been there, to say the leaves.

Speaker 3 (28:17):
The fact that they did not cash in on.

Speaker 2 (28:18):
Hermar Marquezentrade him at the deadline a few years ago,
the Bizmo Chris Bryant deal trading Gway Nolan Aernado when
they did, I mean, you're able to go down the list.
It has just been a myriad of issues for them.
And that's going to be one to take a look
at for Thursday. And we've got five other games on
the board for Thursday. It's a shortest sweet slate that

(28:38):
we do have. Anything else that you're going to be
taking a look at, whether that be a game that
you're liking in terms of a little bit of value
or just a game in general that you want to
see a little bit more from that pitcher or team.

Speaker 4 (28:49):
So I have one side in one total that I've
already bet for Thursday slate. The Brewers at minus one twelve,
project them closer to minus one thirty five, so I
like them at minus one twenty five or better. Lanceln's
seems to have curtailed his home run issue this season.
He was allowing forty four in one hundred and eighty
three innings last year, which is amongst like the worst
home run performances I've ever seen from a starting pitcher,

(29:10):
but just five and thirty five innings this season. Throwing
his secondary stuff a little bit more, not going as
aggressively with the fastball, but across the board, he does
not assm to have a single above average pitches his arsenal,
and he seems to be a little bit of a
junk baller at this stage of his career. Strike up
at his walk right, fastball velocity all at their lowest
marks since twenty seventeen. And what happened to Lanceln in

(29:30):
twenty sixteen He had Tommy John surgery. I missed the
entire season, So he's showing indicators velocity stuff all at
its worst point since he was essentially pitching while recovering
from Tommy John surgery, which is typically a two year recovery.

Speaker 3 (29:45):
So Lancelyn had a late career.

Speaker 4 (29:47):
Spike, you know, the past few seasons or before last season,
he had to hit a three or four year spike
late in his career. It does seem like he's on
the wrong side of that curve and fully falling to
the depths of starting pitcher at the Dakota Hudson's of
the world. I mean, that's the lowest of the low
for me, is the Coda Hudson. Over the past three seasons,
the Coda Hudson is last and strike out minus wall
great amongst two hundred and thirty five starting pitchers. So

(30:09):
that is the replacement level cut line. Lanceln not quite
there yet, but definitely creeping closer to it. And really
the biggest difference I see between these two teams. Milwaukee
just much better defensively and on the base pass. They
were first across the board or first or second across
the board by all defensive metrics. Last season, the Cardinals
were a bottom twelve team everywhere. This year, both teams

(30:29):
have pushed closer to the league average, but I still
do project a bigger differential between these two teams defensively
and the base running stats. Certainly favorite of Milwaukee this year.
They're a top ten team. Saint Louis closer to a
below average team. So I definitely like the Brewers up
to about minus one twenty five, probably gonna like them
all series. I like the board than the Cardinals coming
into the year. Have BET's you know, reflecting that, and

(30:50):
we'll see if I keep betting them game to gain.
The other is the Yankees and Astros. The under nine
win blowing in here, sixty three degrees first pitch, seven,
one hour wins blowing in from left center. I projected
this total closer to eight. I'd make it closer to
eight point five eight point four on a weather neutral night,
but with the temperature is a little bit cooler, with
the wind blowing in, I definitely like this one a

(31:11):
little bit lower. Yankee Stadium is not, you know, an
offensive park. That's a common misconception that short porch is there,
but this part typically plays about four percent below league
average on a normal night. Now I'm not loving what
I'm seeing from either. Marcus Stroman or Reno Blanco. Stroman
strike up mix walk grade is that it's Lois Merksons
twenty eighteen. His walk RDE is at a career high,

(31:32):
so there's definitely some concerning signs in his profile. But
what Stroman and Blanco have in common is that they're
limiting hard contact. They've hard contact rate in the low
thirty percent, They've been closer to forty percent in recent seasons,
and both of them are using pitch mixes to try
to generate week contact. They're not necessarily hunting for strikeouts,
They're trying to generate week contact from their opponents.

Speaker 3 (31:53):
So even though I.

Speaker 4 (31:54):
Don't love the overall profiles from either starter, both of
low average pitch modeling metrics, I do think there's a
case to make the week contact and the weather's going
to keep this total low, So made this total closer
to eight and I like the under eight and a
half two about minus one fifteen.

Speaker 2 (32:08):
And then I do have one follow up with the
guards of Brewers versus Cardinals. It's looking like Sonny Gray
might get an opportunity to start because there was that
radout in Saint Louis. Would that push you off the
game a little bit more because I am right there
with you. If Lancelyn gets to start, I am all
a word operation fade lance Lim. But I do feel
like it would be a little bit different for me
if they do decide to push back Sonny Gray after

(32:29):
the rain out on Wednesday.

Speaker 4 (32:31):
Yeah, absolutely, I bet it with listed pitcher, with lance Lynn,
that's an important thing to qualify. So yes, absolutely, if
Sonny ends up getting pushed back to that game, I
would probably make this line about minus one to five for.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
Milwaukee if Sonny Gray were pitching, So I'd.

Speaker 4 (32:44):
Need plus one ah five for Milwaukee or about plus
one fifteen about the Cardinals in that instance.

Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah, absolutely, because I'm in agreement with you if we
can get lance Lynn all board fading him.

Speaker 3 (32:55):
But Sonny Gray has been very, very good.

Speaker 2 (32:57):
I believe he's given up three earned runs for fear
all but three of it starts since beginning part of
the twenty twenty three seasons. So certainly something to monitor.
And Sean, I know you're doing an amazing job. Take
a look at this great game of baseball. You do
also tremendous work on the UFC front, and you're looking
to do it a little bit before as well, but
doing a great job playing the ponies as well.

Speaker 3 (33:16):
So love to get people at home.

Speaker 2 (33:17):
Know it's all on TAF for you, and I'll people
are able fall on on social media and other platforms.

Speaker 4 (33:21):
Yeah, you can find my column opening Pitch Monday through
Thursday up on Auction network dot com. I cover UFC
primarily on the weekends, and you can find all of
my bets for free in the Action Network app.

Speaker 3 (33:31):
So thank you for having me. Greg is always great
talking to you.

Speaker 4 (33:34):
Hopefully the bets keep cashing throughout the month of May
and the underdogs keep playing fair, and maybe we continue
to catch these unders, because I do tend to bet
more unders than over, so I'm fine if this under
trend continues.

Speaker 2 (33:45):
Absolutely, one of my favorite songs as a kid was
by the Baha Men who Let the Dogs Out, So
hopefully that could be the theme of the month of May,
and Sean, I'm sure is what one of that thev
a theme song for this month as well. It's been
very good to be able to take a look at
these underdogs. Sean does a tremendous job handicapping and modeling
this great game of baseball, and we always learned something

(34:06):
every single time he joins the show. So big thanks
to Sean for joining me right here on the Baseball
Betting Show now part of the Visa Family podcast coming
next to it is that time of the podcast they
give you picks, it and analysis and every game on
the betting board for this Baseball Thursday, as we toutr Moon.

Speaker 1 (34:25):
Breaking down every game every day in Major League Baseball.
Greg Peterson.

Speaker 2 (34:33):
I'm a right to love me Las Vegas for the
Baseball Betting chew with myself, Greg Peterson, now part of
the Visa Family Podcasts. Always great to be joined by
Sean's really does tremendous workover at Action Network taking a
look at this great game that we all know love
of baseball. Top of that, doing great work on the
UFC front, taking a look at everything that we're getting
in terms of the race for a possible triple crown

(34:55):
out there with the Ponies as well. So big thanks
to Sean for joining me in the last segment. Now
it is that time in the podcast to give you
picks and analysis and every game on the betting board
for this Baseball Thursday, as we touch them all.

Speaker 3 (35:07):
If a game is listed on the betting board, Greg
has a side and the total on it, so it
is time to touch them all.

Speaker 2 (35:12):
Do you know that, as per usual, any changes that
are made to these plays, we'll be listened up on
my Twitter slash x feed at you and a R
forty one gonna be going on Last vegasitation or this
is where we go to the National League games first
in the American League games. If we would have interleague games,
those would be at the bottom, but we do not
have any inter league games. So let's start out with
my DK network. Right I pick this is nine to
one nine o two on the betting board. Tiar's at

(35:34):
of Diamondbacks are on the road facing up against the
Cincinnati Reds. And as we are onto Cincinnati and they're
on a one hundred green and getting the surf for them,
Slat says Sony is on the bump for the Diamondbacks.
Dimonbacks find themselves as slight underdogs between even money and
plus one oh eight minus one eighteen minus one twenty
two is at number on Cincinnati. Nine is a total
over and under both at minus one ten Right up

(35:54):
here is going to be on the Reds. Money line.
I did set them as a favorite of minus one
forty three. Absolutely love what I've seen out of Hunter
Green this far this season, a three twelve ERA and
a fielding dependent even lower than that. If I do
have a little bit of trepidation with utter Green, it
is that he's got a career ERA that is higher
at home rather than on the road. And big reason
why he said when he's been at home he has

(36:15):
given up north of two home runs per nine ennings
throughout his career, but he's spent a different man here
in twenty twenty four. He's getting ten and a half
strikeouts and zero point four home runs per nine and ennings.
Walks are still aid about three and a half walks
per nine and nnings. But ah in all, Green has
been tremendous going against someone in SACONI who's been able
to do a good job, will be able to keep
the walks down one point seven walks pern and nnings,

(36:35):
but is giving up quite a bit of our contact
one point seven home runs per nine and nnings posting
up in the ERA that's hovering right around about four
ninety six. Who has cried his fielding dependent is about
a half a point lower, but he has to go
up against it. Since a Red's lineup that I do
think is going to be able to do a relatively
solid job a belt Pat Toball. It's been a little
bit of an inconsistent Reds lineup this far this season,
but Jonathan India is starting to come around. He Spencer Steer,

(36:59):
Tyler Stevenson all with at least a three twenty on
base as La day La Cruz has been really the
man that has been carrying things for this are for
this Cincinnati line up, three sixty five on base, eight
home runs as far this season. If you can get
a little bit more out of the legs of TJ Fridell,
Jamiir kender Lario, these guys at the bottom, that'd be
big for them. And we were alluding to it with

(37:20):
her good friend Sean Corbin. Carrol just has not been himself.
Had a home run a few days ago, but providing
about a three hundred on base just has not been
the man that we saw a season ago. You've got
Lordus Courriel who's been really starting to slide a little
bit as well, though he's got five home runs that's
far the season. The duo of Christian Walker Jock Peterson
both give you North a three eighty five on base
has been pretty rock solid, with Christian Walker being able

(37:41):
to sply quite a bit of boom. You need to
get del Marte both seven plus home runs. As far
as the season when you've had Bleez Alexander out there,
he's been able to do a relatively solid job as well,
but he's been a little bit in and out of
the fold after wonder if he's dealing with a little
bit of an injury himself. And for both of these teams,
both pen's very comparable. The Diamondbacks for sixty Bullpenny Ray
entering into Wednesday four fifty ninety RA for the Reds

(38:04):
and with the Arizona Diamondbacks, you've got a few long
guys like Logan Allen that are relatively solid. They get
Pulsey well back unfold that should help, but him coming
off the end list probably gonna take him a little
bit of time to be able to get things set,
like Kevin Ginko, I like Ryan Thompson, and then on
the flip side for the Reds, they've gotten Sam moleback.
He's been able to help out this bullpen. Other than
one bad appearance. Fernando Cruz has been relatively solid. Lexisis

(38:28):
has been a little bit rough, but I do think
that he's going to be able to pick it up.
And by the way, for Fernando Cruz seventeen point three
strikeouts for nine unnings, that I will certainly play for
him as well. But I do think that for the
Reds they're going to be able to get to Seconi
like the way that Hunter Green has been able to roll,
and I'm going to be willing to trust an under
Green in this radio. It's at Arizona Diamondbacks, team that
entered into yesterday fifth of the league in terms of

(38:48):
runs per game overall, but eleventh on the road, so
they do struggle a little bit more way from Arizona.
DKA network right to pick that is going to be
on the Reds money line, and any time I told
it at eight point nine, with the way that Green
has been able to pitch, so here at the nine,
I like the under My right up is on the
Reds money line nine three, nine to four on the
betting board. The San Francisco Giants are on the road.
They're facing up against the Colorado Rockies as Calquantro goes

(39:09):
for the Rockies and Keaton Win is on the bump
for San Francisco. San Francisco a pretty good sized favorite
between minus one forty eight minus one sixty two between
plus one thirty six plus one forty one as your
number on Colorado. Total is between nine and a half
and ten on the ten, the unders vice will twenty
two overs even on the nine and a half over
his minus one fifteen and the under is minus one
of five. If you're looking to lay a run half

(39:30):
with the San Francisco Giants, you're getting even money. I
was one of the lay up to a minus one
of five with the Giants. I wouldn't want to go
too much further than that because Keaton won Win is
a little bit more of a pitch of contact guy.
But as we were talking about with Sean, the conditions
in Colorado have not necessary been the world's greatest hitting conditions.
Wind has been blowing in a little bit, it's not
necessarily the warmest of tempts, so that should be able

(39:51):
to help out a guy and Keaton Win who's only
getting about seven ham straight cuts per nine ennings but
has been able to do a very solid job in
terms of his command. He's been giving up about three
bucks Bernie Ennings giving up less at home run per
ninon Ennings. And you've got a guy in cal Quantrell
that I want to talk about someone that's not getting
a lot of strikeouts, that'd be cal Quantrell. He's getting
about six strikeouts Berni and Ennings has been giving up
well north of one point three home runs per nine Ennings.

(40:14):
He's just not a guy that, in my opinion, that
Carride Rocky should have signed. He just doesn't really play
well to the ballpark out there in Colorado for thirty
one RA thus far for cal Quantrell, but a fielding
dependent closer to five. And got a pair of bullpens
there in the bottom ten the big leagues with regards
to their era. But there is a lot of reason
to be very tipid and very bearish on this corrad

(40:34):
Rocky's bullpen, as they've had Victor Vadnick honestly be very
solid out there in the bullpen. But like some of
Anthony Bellina, Jake Berd, Justin Lawrence providing well north of
a five era and Tyler Kinley completely going down the
toilet bowl, that's not great while the Giants do still
have a lockdown closer as Camilion of all when you
get to him, he's been able to do a very
nice job be able to lock things down. Taylor and

(40:55):
Tyler Rodgers both providing a sub three seventy five ra
and now they get Luke Jackson back. Took him a
little bit of time to be able to pick it up,
but he's starting to pitch much better. And for the Giants,
even though the just offense in general has been a
little bit up and down, I like the approach of
Jungle Lee at the play. It feels like he's hit
better than the two sixty five that he has as
far this season. Got the ariushrowded Mike al confordo match

(41:16):
Hadman all with between four and five home runs, Raceleira
as well. These guys have not really moved the line.
These guys have a three hundred on base or lower.
But Cal Quantrill it's also been giving up right around
about three point two walks for nine and he's being
a pitch of contact guy. That's not amazing. And for
the Rockies, this team is still hitting about twenty five
points higher when they're at home rather than on the road.
But they just haven't been able to anywhere. You've got

(41:37):
a pair of guys in Elias Is Ryan mcmahonitting right
around at three hundred. But I find to be very
striking about the Colorado Rockies is if you take a
look at the Baseball Savon numbers, they've actually been relatively
the most lucky team in all of baseball in terms
of their offense. They're expected batting average versus their actual
batting average. They're actually hitting about twenty points higher some

(41:58):
one is expected, which is really scary because they have
been a pretty big disappointment thus far this season. So
that's a little bit of an issue. You really don't
have a lot of power in the line of twenty
seven home runs in their first thirty five games of
the season. Michael Deglia it's right now number two on
the team and home runs, and he hasn't seen in
that bad in three weeks. Ryan McMahon has been able
to supply five home runs. I do think that the
San Francisco Giants should be able to go into Colorado

(42:19):
and should be able to dominate this one. I'm going
to be willing to lay up to a minus one
of five with that run line, and I do think
that we're going to get a little bit more offense
with the way that cal Quantrell has given up quite
a few walks, in the way that both of these
bullpens have not for performing so well, did sep I
tell the eleven point two. I like the over, and
I do like the Giants laying a run and a
half nine of five, nine of six. On the betting board,
it is the Saint Louis Cardinals on the road against

(42:41):
the Milwaukee Burs. At first we were looking at Lion Slam,
but with the rainout on Wednesday, it is going to
be Sunny Gray getting the start for Saint Louis, and
it's Tobias Myers who's on the bump for the Milwaukee Burs.
For the Burs, you're getting them any between even money
to plus one o five between minus one seventeen minus
one twenty five is your number on Saint Louis. We're
earlier on at a plus number, and the total on

(43:03):
this game it is eight. And I'll tell you right now,
in turns of my personal bets, I was able to
get a plus number on the Saint Louis Cardinals because
they were very, very slow to change it over, I'd
be willing to lay up to a minus one eleven
with the Saint Louis Cardinals. If it gets to a
plus one twelve or higher, it's going to be a
take for me on the Brewers. But like I said,
I Ray took this one on the money line of

(43:23):
the Saint Louis Cardinals because bus we're unaware that Sonny
Gray was going to be getting to start in this one.
But if you're looking to lay a run half with
the San Louis Cardinals, you're getting that right around about
a plus one thirty five to a plus one forty.
And if I absolutely had to bet this as of
right now, I would probably be just trying to be
able to get a PUS one twelve or higher right
now with the Milwaukee Brewers. But that said, with Sonny Gray,

(43:44):
this guy has been absolutely tremendous. He has given up
three earned runs or fewer in all but three of
it starts since the beginning of the twenty twenty three campaign.
I believe that he has had in that time span
thirty eight total starts. Might actually be thirty nine total starts,
but this guy's been stational this year, posting up a
zero eighty ninety R. Now, I do think that there's
gonna be a little bit of regression with this, but

(44:06):
levee with that he's been able to post up north
of eleven strikeouts for nine innings, has given up just
five walks over the course of his starts as far
this season. He's made five internals, so he has been
absolutely on point there. Fielding independent is a little bit
higher than a zero eighty nine, but he's below a
two to fifty with that regard as well. And then
for Debias, Myers has been a little bit of are
off go event for him. Since getting up to the

(44:27):
big league level, he has actually been a little bit
fortunate on balls and play at two to zero six
betting average on balls and play six twenty three ERA
seven to sixty one fielding dependent, as he's just given
up the deep pal too much. Five home runs and
thirteen innings, I do think that there should be a
lot of positivity coming for him against a Saint Louis
Cardinals line up that flat out just is not cutting
it thus far this season for Saint Louis, you've had

(44:48):
Wilson Teris be able to supply six on runs but
he's now on the injured list, which means that Nolan Gorman,
Brandon Donovan, with their four home runs apiece or right
now leading the way in terms of total home runs
among guys, are going to be active in this game.
And when it comes to the San Louis Cardinals, among
guys that I've seen at least eighty eight bats as
far this season, you've got, i believe now two separate

(45:09):
guys that are currently in a above a two twenty three.
So that's a little bit of an issue. As Alec Burlson,
you can lump him in there as well, eighty four
total of bats. He's setting more around at two to sixty.
But although this team is not a move the line
Paul Goldschmid has had a rough time of it. Doan Gorman,
Lars Zopar. They seem to be regretted saying they had
to send Jordan Walker down to the minor league level.
They got nothing out of Victor Scott whatsoever. I'm pretty

(45:30):
sure he's at the minors now as well. And for
the Milwaukee Brewers, I do think that we're going to
see this young lineup start to have a few struggles.
But for Bryce Ryan, he continues it above a three
to ten, it's been able to give you about a
three eighty five on base. You now get back in
the full. Christian yell at Chew prior to getting hurt,
he had five home runs in his first eleven games
of the season, has been able hit for about a
three eighty on base. William Contres has been one of

(45:53):
the best hitters in the league this far, with north
of four on base five home runs. Will you adamas
give you about a three forty five on base as well?
I will say this about the Burrs, They've always had
their problems against lefties over the last few seasons. Fortunately
for them. Sonny Gray, he is a right handed pitcher.
But ex definitely saying those Cardinals they do have a
few lefties in the bullpen, so they're gonna need to
be alert of that. Jojo Romero and John King are

(46:15):
both lefties, so that's something to take note of. But
it's been a Cardinals bullpen that has been relatively league average.
Due to the rain out yesterday, they're going to be
a little bit more well rested. Ryan Elslie has been
rock solid for the team. They've been able to get
some good endings on Nick Robertson as well, and for
the Burrs, it's been a little bit of an up
and down bullpen. But you do have guys like Hoby Milner,
Elvis pierro Joel Piomps that all had a sub three
three ERA last season. Piomps sat a rough go of it,

(46:37):
but he was used up yesterday. We shouldn't see him.
Should see Trevor mcgil though, who's posting up right around
about a one er. And I do think that the
Burrs are going to be able to generate like a
run or two off of Sonny Gray and then from there,
I do think that they dive in on this bullpen.
I do think that this is going to be a
low scoring slog of a game. So I told at
some point at at Sony Gray deserves a lot of respect.
I'm gonna be looking at the under and like I said,

(46:58):
when this was a plus number, I took shot on
the Cardinals. If I had to play it right now,
we'll be looking at a plus one twelve or higher
on the Emperor's money line, nine of seven, nine to
eight on the betting board. The Minnesota Twins, they play
a se Seattle Mariners Pablo Lopez is on the bump
for the Twins, and Logan Gilbert goes for the Mariners.
Mariners find themselves as underdogs. Any between plus one ten
to ae plus one sixteen between minus one twenty one

(47:21):
minus one thirty is at number on Minnesota. Six a
half to seven is the total on these six a
half overs, minus twenty d underceiven on the seventh, the
unders between minus one twenty to minus one twenty eight.
The overs anywhere between even at plus one oh eight
did sell my total at some point three. I'm gonna
be looking at you over. This is one of those
rare cases where I'd rather lay a little bit more
juice for a six a half rather than take even

(47:41):
money or a plus nummer on a seven, because if
you have a spot where it's like three to three
going into ninth th eighty, that next run gives you
a win rather than a push, and I do think
that that's critical in this sort of circumstances. You've got
two of the better bullpens that you're gonna find in
the big leagues for the Minnesota Twins, these guys have
been absolutely remarkable all season long. You on total, who
was back in the fold for the seam Cody Funderberg

(48:02):
along Cole Sands. These are guys applying a sub three
to three era where the Twins are currently eleventh in
the big leagues in terms of bullpen area and the
Mariners are even better at AD two sixty four. Now,
the Mariners have dealt with a few injuries. Taylor Cicado
is someone that left the game a few days ago.
But oh no, I take a look at this bullpen
with the likes of Gabe Spyer being able to step up.
Andre's Munjos so a relatively solid closer. And they've been

(48:24):
doing this all season one without Matt Brash and I've
been very impressed by them and for Seattle and has
been a little bit up and down in terms of
the lineup, but Seattle even last year was a much
better team on the road with regards their offense rather
than at home. They do play in one of the
most pitcher frontly ballparks in the big leagues. Say, we've
been noticing that thus far this season, you haven't necessarily
had a lot of guys being able to move the
line for the Secene Willio Rodriguez a two sixty seven,

(48:46):
but he's supplied just one home run thus far this season,
and everyone else with at least one hundred at Pats,
and I believe that you've got six guys in total.
Nobody else is sitting above a two fifteen for this seam.
But that said, for the Seattle maners been able to
get some nice hour out of Cal Rawly, big dumpers
up to nine home runs as far as the season,
or A Polanko is starting to supply the deep as well.
He Mitchaneger both with five home runs piece. So both

(49:08):
of these guys a sub three hundred on base, but
Josh ROAs has really been able to give the seam
and night spark for twenty on base, thinking about a
three to fifty in on the flip side. For the
Minnesota Twins, this is a very very hot team. They
have won thirteen out of their last fourteen games, much
of that game against the La Angels. Much of that
came against the Chicago White Sox as well, and so
I'll make question marks with this offense. Ryan Jeffers Edward
Julienne both with seven home runs piece, and Jeffers has

(49:31):
really been able to breathe some life into this lineup.
Three point eighty one on base. He is one of
just two players has seen at least seventy five at
bad SO for this team, and I believe that there
are six in total with an on base percent. Angelbove
A three to twenty three. You've had cartless Korea come
back in the fold, and he's looked much better this
year when he's been out there on the field rather
than past years. Mackscupler has been able to give you
a little bit of production as well. But I do

(49:52):
think that Logan Gilbert is going to continue to be
absolutely sensational. He's been able to get a little bit
north of nine straight cuts per nine and Ennis. The
walks aren't too bad, a factor two and a half
walks per nin and nnings. He is giving up about
a home run for nine and nnings. So his fielding
independent is quite a bit higher than his buck sixty
nine era, but of love what I've seen it out
of him. And for Pablo Lopez, this guy has just
been snake bitten ever since getting to Minnesota. For Pabula Lopez,

(50:14):
he's right now supplying a four thirty e RA. His
fielding independent is much better than this. As for Pabla Lopez.
Ever since he has gotten to Minnesota, he has been
able to generate a little bit north of ten Strikekous
Bernie Nnings. As a matter of fact, for this season
ten point eight strike Cus, Berni and Ennings. His fielding
independent is a full point lower then as the ARA.
He has given up one point four home runs Bernin
and Nnings as far this season. But I do think

(50:34):
that he's going to be able to figure it out.
I think that you get a nice pitcher's tool, but
I do think that we went a little bit too
low in terms of total. Both of these bullpens have
had some heavy use here in the series. So did
somebody told at some point three. I like the overran
for Logan Gilbert. I think that he's able to keep
this going at a plus one to seven or higher.
I'm going to be taking a little shot on the
Seattle Manners on the money line, nine to nine, nine
to ten on the benning board, the Easton Asters. It

(50:54):
throw it the face off against the New York Yankees.
Marcus Roman is on the bump for the Yankees and
Ronald le Blunk is on the bump for Houston. Houston
is an underdog, you're gonna be geting them between plus
one ten to a plus one seventeen. Meanwhile, between minus
one twenty four to a minus one thirty five is
your number on the Yankees. Eight and a half is
the total. Overs between minus one tend to a minus
one twenty the unders any between even a minus one
ten semi total it at eight point seven. I'm gonna

(51:16):
be looking at you over for Rono Blanco, he's really
been the most reliable pitcher that's far this season for
the Houston Aster. It says the bullpen is currently in
the bottom in the big leagues in terms of VRA
as Ryan Presley, Josh Hader have been at disaster, Brian
Obray who hasn't been great as a matter of fact,
it's been guys like Taylor Scott and Seth Martinez who
have really been able to ply in the bullpen. But

(51:36):
that's d for Blanco. Two ninety RA backed up by
a three ninety five fielding dependent though three point seven
walks Berni and he says kept the ball in the yard,
giving up just one over run Berni and innings. But
on the flip side, you do have a guy Marcus
Stroman that he's sort of cume from the same cloth
as well. Marcus Strowman three forty one e ari about
a four to seventy nine fielding a pend giving up
there near five walks per nine and nnings. So now

(51:58):
that we went from a nine to an eight and
a half, I'm going to be taking a look at
the over. But the Yankees have such a better bullpen
than the ass currently number one in the Big Leagues
with regards to their Bullpenny Aray, they did have to
use up Ian Hamilton yesterday, but Ron Benonaccio over the
last two seasons has been able to fly a sub
three two era. Victory Grounds also seen some sporadic use,
but he's supplying a sub three era. Does feel like
Cale Ferguson is starting to figure it out as well.

(52:20):
Luke Weaver has actually been solid in a long roll,
and I do think that the Askers are going to
be able to get their runs despite the fact that
it's a little bit chillier in New York at this
time of the year. As you've got Kyle Tucker Oseael
two by Jordan Overrez, I'll give you least seven home
runs as far this season in the case of Kyle Tucker,
although Joseel two Bay both right around about a three
to ninety on base percent. Of Jeremy Panya, he's starting
to rake. He's hitting a three twenty five four home runs.

(52:42):
Love what I'm seeing out of him. The power at
the bottom of the fold isn't say there, but Racio
Oban is hitting a three hundred. You've been able to
have on yourdeas be able to do a slaid jobbing
it about a two seventy five. And for the New
York Yankees, Aaron Judge has finally gotten hot. He was
able to home run yesterday. This entire Yankees lineup is
really starting to match as well. John Carlos san One Sodo,
Both of these guys eight or nine over runs a piece.

(53:03):
For Stanton not really hitting for a lot of average,
but Sodo north of a four to thirty on base
Anthony Volpe a lot as well to Corbrera been able
to step up as young guys as well. I do
think that it's gonna be a little bit of a
rough one for Ronel Blanco and Marcus Serrolman. He's just
so much better supported than Blanco in the spot. So
I did Seth the Yankees head of minus one forty two,
like them on the money line, and here at the
eight and a half, I do like the over as well,

(53:23):
nine to eleven, nine to twelve on the banking board.
The Cleveland Guardians, you throw out their facing up against
the Chicago White Sox. Eric Fetty Wapp is on the
bump for the Socks and Ben Lively is on the
bump for Cleveland. Cleveland is a favorite of between minus
one forty two minus one forty eight plus one twenty
four to plus one thirty one. It's your number on
the White Sox. Eight is the total in a lot
of spots seeing a straight seven half as well on
the seven a half overs minus one fifteen the unders

(53:45):
minus one to five on the unders minus one twenty five,
the overs plus one o five and I did sell
my total add an eight point one. This open up
at an eight with juice on the over. So now
that we've dipped down this low, I'm gonna be taking
a look at the over for the Guardians. This has
been a top five team with a yard as a
bullpenning area, but they did have to go to extra
endings yesterday. They'll some of these arms are certain to
get just a little bit used up. Punter Gadis might

(54:07):
not be able to be used in this one, but
tim Aron, Scott, Barlow, Kate Smith, these are all guys
that have been very good in this Guardian's bullpen. They're
gonna be on calling for the Chicago White Sucks. The
team has been relatively league average in terms of a bullpen.
It's the one thing that they haven't done just an
objectively bad job of at this point, though, is still
to have a few untrustworthy guys. Sim L has been
relatively rough this season. Brian Keller, He's been a long guy,

(54:30):
He's been a starter. He has stunk on both fronts,
but some Mike John Brebby has been able to give
you about a sub three five ar. Michael Kopek gives
up bombs, but when he's not giving up bombs, he's
actually half way okay. Going up against a Cleveland Guardians
team that still is not necessarily the world's greatest power
rainning team, but after being deadlines in the big leagues
with regards to home runs eight season ago, they're much
better now. They do have Stephen Kuwan on the injured list.

(54:50):
That's a little bit. Raw Fee was hitting about a
three fifty at the top, but got Josh Naylor Ose
Ramirez combining for about sixteen home runs. Now with Ramirez
nothting for a lot of average, but he's been able
to help out Naylor in terms of the power department.
Who's given you about a three sixty on base and
then you've got some like and Andres Menez, Will Brandon.
Both of these guys came between about a two forty
two two fifty five. He could use a little bit

(55:11):
more out of Brian Raschil, but he had that game
winning it yesterday. Perhaps it's sartained to chuck along for
him and against the Chicago White Socks he should be
able to rack up some runs. Even though Eric Fetty
has actually been very very good for the team now.
Eric Fetty was able to help the team get a
win in his last start against the Tampa Bay Race
that really wasn't a result of Eric Fetti, though, yeah
give it up. I believe it was five runs in

(55:32):
that start, might have been four, but he certainly got
lit up a little bit there. I do like the
row stuff of Eric Vetti. Though he has come back
from the KBO and he's swinging his stuff his way up.
Throughout his career with with the Washington Nationals, he was
providing about seven point two strikeouts for nine innings. That's
up to about nine and a half strikeouts per nine
nings this season, but three forty six four fifty three
field the Independence, he has given up about one point

(55:53):
six home runs per nine and Enningson backed up by
a White Sox lineup that is by far dead last
in the big leagues with regards to run creation. Paul
the Young has been able to give you five home
runs as far this season, and Eloy and Menez is
starting to pick it up with four home runs. But
you just take a look at this entire lineup and
you currently have two guys that have seen north of
forty five at best. They're ainting above at two thirty.
Like it is just really really bad. To say the

(56:16):
least likes of Andrew ben Attendee, Nikki Lopez, Eloy Amenez,
Andrew Vaughn, Martine Moldonado, all these guys ranging at two
fifteen or lower. I think that that is going to
be their unrivaling. It's been lively. I do think it's
doing for a little bit of regression, but he has
been pretty superb thus far this season. As for mister Lively,
he has been living up to that name, as he's

(56:36):
getting about ten strikeouts for nine and endings a two
and a half walks bernine to eight or a two
ninety six field independent. If you look at the barrel raiate,
it's a little bit higher than.

Speaker 3 (56:44):
You'd like it to be.

Speaker 2 (56:45):
But on all he's been able to do a nice job,
and I think that he should be able to sign
me the Chicago White Sox. If you're looking to lay
a run and a half year, as I did sell
my money line more of minus one fifty eight, I
was willing to take pretty much even money or better.
Right now you're getting a plus one fifteen. I'm going
to be willing to lay that run half with the
Cleve Guardians. And here with this total, I'm gonna be
looking at the totals over as I said by told
it at eight point one, and we wrap things up

(57:05):
with nine thirteen, nine fourteen on the bank board, the
can See Royals, the throw out your face off can
see La Angels. Reed Demers is on the bump for
the Halos and Michael Waka and if he gets lit up,
he becomes Michael Waca Waca Waca Waka what dying pac
band voys for the Kancity Royals, and the Royals are
slight favorites. Any between minus one ten too a minus
one fifteen between minus one of five to plus one
O three is your number on the Halos. Eight to

(57:27):
eight and a half is the total on the eight overs,
mince one fifteen the unders, minus one five on the
eight and a half hundreds, between minus one fifteen and
minus one twenty the oversenty between even and minus one
oh five. I'm gonna lay it with the Angels. As
a matter of fact, I'm getting a little bit of
plus number, so we're gonna be riding with them. For
Reed Demers swinging itself has been very good as far
as the season nine and a half s right, guess,
Bernie and Ennings has been a tab unlucky on the

(57:49):
balls in play four twenty four year three sixty nine
Field League pen giving up a little bit earth of
a home run Berni and Nings, But on all I
do like what he's been able to do for this team.
Did get completely lit up in his last start again
the Cleveland Guardians, But I do think that we're gonna
see a little bit of versal here against a Royal
team that for one, they're a little bit of an
all or nothing line up, and for two, they are
generating more than a full run per game, more when

(58:10):
they're at home rather than away. For mom on the
road they're only getting about four runs per contest. You've
had Bobby with Juniors Alva or pair Rise be really
good table centers for the team, both guys hitting about
a three twenty five for Paris up to eight home
runs as far the season with Junior as five. And
then you have I'm jab Alendez, MIKEL Garcia, Vinnie Pascantino
all four home runs as far the season and for
pass Contino about a three forty on base, MIKEL Garcia

(58:32):
two ninety five on base, I'm Jave Melendez just at
two forty four. And then the likes of Hunter Renfro, Kyle,
Isabelle Nelson, Alaskas and I do think that they're upside
with Alaskaz, but they're all leading a two twenty or lower. Meanwhile,
for the La Angels, we're seeing some signs of life
from this lineup. You've had Logan O hop you do
a nice job, I'll be able to find a way
on He and Taylor Ward hitting between a two seventy

(58:52):
two two eighty. Ward has seven home runs as far
of the season, though he's been stuck on seven for
quite a while. Mickey Moniac, Brandon Drury Aaron, I'm pretty
sure that they d fade. I mean, these are guys
that are hitting below the mido sign of two hundred.
But with the fang Aaron Hicks, they've been able to
give more bats of guys like it. Joe Elli is
now giving you about a three fifteen on base. He's
been able to supply five home runs Zacnetto even though

(59:14):
he's still not necessarily drawing a lot of walks, he's
finding way to be able to get on base as well.
The biggest thing for the La Angels is they need
to hold up in the bullpen. This Angel's bullpen is
in the bottom meet in the big leagues with reguards
to bullpen are the just reclamation projects of Hunter Strickland,
Adam Simber, Emir Garrett are not working out. But then
Moore Carlos to sevens. They've got a track record of
being solid in the eighth and ninth inning has been

(59:34):
a little bit wobbly thus far the season. But for
the Royals, they dad fifty US. I believe it was
five different bullpen pieces yesterday against the Milwaukee Bers. They're
going to be a little bit less than rested, and
we are starting to see some of these guys for
you guys a little bit, Tai Duffy, James MacArthur, Chris
Stranton along with Will Smith, these are all guys applying
north of forty are really gotten some good production off

(59:55):
Onalzerapa along with John Treiber, but too still have some
trepidations with his bullpen and the for Michael walka five
point fifty U fielding dependent is a little bit better
than that, but in the years twenty twenty two and
twenty three it was really over performing his metrics. If
you take a look at the last three years. As
a matter of fact, fielding depend is about a half
point higher than his ra skipping up just one home
run per nine nunings, but he's been leaving balls out

(01:00:16):
over the plate. He's only getting about seven a half
raightcuts per nine innings. I do think that the Angels
should be able to get to him, I did somebody
totlet at eight point six, so I do like the
over and I do like the angels on the winning line. Stuff.
I'm out of minus one sixteen and that wrap things
up for the Thursday edition of The Baseball Betting Show,
now part of the VS and Family Podcasts. A big
thanks to Shawn's Bill of Action Network for joining me
and live segment. If you do like for heeering from

(01:00:38):
this time podcast Baseball Betting Show, You're able to subscribe
wherever you year podcasts Apple Podcasts, Google by Spotify, cit
Terre and tune And if you have a question comment
segment idea what have you for this podcast? You have
one of two a'svo fur those in first one is
my Twitter slash x simeline at you and Underscorty one.
Keep in mind letters em they mean it does not matters,
so it's prett usual. Please send these into the timeline
other ways find an Apple podcast review. If you rate

(01:00:58):
this podcast night sarahs it is very much appreciate it.
From there, you're able fire on whatever you'd like here
on this podcast. Five the five star review coming at
you guys every single day throughout the baseball season, so
I'll be back with you once get tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (01:01:07):
Thank you so much for doing

All Episodes

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

The Nikki Glaser Podcast

.css-15opob5{left:0;position:absolute;top:0.8rem;} All Episodes

.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}5/9/24-Baseball Betting Show

Episode Transcript

Popular Podcasts

.css-r6mb8g{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:1;overflow:hidden;}Dateline NBC

Stuff You Should Know

The Nikki Glaser Podcast

All Episodes

5/9/24-Baseball Betting Show

Dateline NBC