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February 28, 2025 • 15 mins

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Validating Your Business Idea: The Decision Tree Framework

In this episode of 'The Market Message Show,' host Jonathan Milligan delves into Chapter 18 of his book 'Validate Your Offer.' The chapter focuses on the 'Business Validation Decision Tree,' a systematic approach to testing and improving business ideas before going all in. Using the story of Dropbox's early validation techniques, Jonathan emphasizes the importance of gathering feedback, experimenting, and iterating to achieve a product-market fit. Key insights include the importance of finding the right audience, pinpointing the critical problems your audience faces, and gathering actionable feedback to refine your offers. The episode also provides practical steps to put the Business Idea Decision Tree into action, making sure listeners can validate their ideas efficiently and effectively.

00:00 Welcome to the Market Show
00:11 Introduction to 'Validate Your Offer'
01:16 The Dropbox Story: A Lesson in Validation
02:59 Understanding the Business Validation Decision Tree
03:51 The Two Traps of Idea Validation
07:03 Three Steps to Validate Your Business Idea
11:45 Implementing the Business Validation Decision Tree
14:25 Key Takeaways and Final Thoughts

Mark as Played
Transcript

Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:00):
Hello and welcome to the market.

(00:01):
Your message show.
I'm your host, JonathanMilligan.
And we are going through thethird book in the series.
Validate your offer.
This is an important bookbecause a lot of people will
start their business online.
And then they're trying tofigure out how do I create

(00:21):
something that people will wantand how do I do it without
wasting time?
And that's what this third bookin my book series is all about.
Now as a thank you for being aloyal podcast listener, I am
making the audio book availableone chapter at a time every
single week.
And as you're listening to this,we are currently going through

(00:43):
that.
Validate your offer.
Now, if you ever want the audiobook or you want the book or the
workbook, you can go to platformgrowth, books.com again, it's
platform, growth books.com, andyou could order one of those.
And of course, listen, as you gothrough the book or use the
workbook to implement what youhear.

(01:06):
In each episode.
So with that being said, let'sjump right in to today's
chapter.

Speaker 61 (01:12):
Chapter 18, the business validation decision
tree.
Ever heard the story of howDropbox got started?
Back in 2007, MIT student, DrewHouston was fed up with
constantly losing his USB drive.
So he started coding a solution,a file storage system that would
sync his files across all hiscomputers.

(01:33):
Houston knew he was ontosomething, but when he tried to
get investors on board, no onewas biting.
You see, online storage, wasn'ta new idea.
Big players like Google andMicrosoft were already in the
game.
So why would anyone wantHouston's product?
Determined to prove thenaysayers wrong, he decided to
put out a minimum viableproduct.

(01:54):
A simple video demonstrating howDropbox worked.
And that's when things gotinteresting.
Overnight, the video went viral.
Houston's beta waiting listskyrocketed from 5, 000 to 75,
000 people.
All because he took a chance andput something out there to
validate his idea.

(02:15):
He learned that people reallydid want.
A simpler way to store and synctheir files.
Armed with that knowledge, hewas able to refine Dropbox into
the service millions rely ontoday.
Houston's story is a perfectexample of what this chapter is
all about.
Validating your business idea.
See, most people make one of twomistakes.

(02:37):
They either barrel ahead with anidea without ever testing the
market, or they put out aninitial offer but fail to really
evaluate the results anditerate.
Both roads lead to the samedestination.
A whole lot of wasted time andmoney.
So what's the solution?
It's simple.
You need a system to validateyour ideas and offers a way to

(02:57):
test the market before going allin.
And that's exactly what theBusiness Idea Decision Tree is
all about.
Think of it like a choose yourown adventure book for your
business.
At each step, you'll evaluate akey piece of the puzzle.
Your audience.
Your problem.
Your offer.
And based on the results, you'llknow exactly what to do next.

(03:17):
Launch a small beta group togauge interest.
Run a free challenge to validatethe problem you're solving.
Put out a paid workshop to testyour offer.
And at every turn, you'll begathering valuable feedback and
insights.
Business So, you can ditch theguesswork and make confident,
data driven decisions aboutwhere to take your business
next.

(03:38):
No more throwing spaghetti atthe wall and hoping something
sticks.
With the Business Idea DecisionTree, you'll have a clear
roadmap for turning your ideasinto viable, profitable
offerings.
Ready to dive in?
Let's get started.

Speaker 62 (03:51):
The two traps of idea validation.
Let's be real.
When it comes to validating abusiness idea, most people fall
into one of two traps.
First, there's the ready fireaim approach.
You know, the type they getstruck with a lightning bolt of
inspiration and charge fullsteam ahead without ever
stopping to test the waters.
They pour their heart and souland maybe their life savings

(04:13):
into an idea only to watch itfizzle out faster than a
firework in a rainstorm.
Then, there's the flip side.
The people who dip their toe inthe validation pool, but never
fully take the plunge.
They put out a half heartedoffer, get a lukewarm response,
and promptly throw in the towel.
Guess that idea was a dud, theyshrug, moving on to the next

(04:35):
shiny object.
Both of these approaches rarelywork.
You might get lucky and hit thejackpot, but chances are, you'll
end up watching your chipsdisappear faster than free
donuts in a break room.
The truth is that not properlyvalidating your ideas is like
setting out on a cross countryroad trip without a map.
You might have a vague idea ofwhere you want to end up, but

(04:57):
without a clear route, you'rebound to take a lot of costly
detours and dead ends.
You'll waste time and resources,you'll chase the wrong audience,
solve the wrong problems, oroffer the wrong solutions.
And here's the kicker.
Even if you do put out aninitial offer, failing to
carefully evaluate the results,Is just as dangerous.

(05:18):
It's like planting a seed andthen abandoning it after a day
because it hasn't bloomed yet.
Ideas take time and nurturing togrow.
If you don't take the time tounderstand why an offer fell
flat.
You might be missing out on agolden opportunity to refine and
improve.
So, what's the secret tosuccessful idea validation?

(05:39):
It's all about mindset.
Treat your initial offers asexperiments, not life or death
trials.
Think of it like you're a madscientist concocting different
formulas in your lab.
Some might blow up in your face,metaphorically, we hope, while
others could lead to a gamechanging discovery.
The key is to launch, thenlearn.

(05:59):
Put something out there, gatherfeedback, and use it to inform
your next move.
It's not about perfection, it'sabout progress.
And that's where the BusinessIdea Decision Tree comes in.
It's like a trusty roadmap fornavigating the validation
process.
At each fork in the road, you'llevaluate a key element of your
business.
Your audience, your problem,your offer.

(06:22):
Based on the results, the treewill guide you to your next
steps.
Think of it like playing a gameof hot or cold.
With each move, you're gettingwarmer, zeroing in on that sweet
spot of product market fit.
And the beauty of the decisiontree is that it takes the
guesswork out of the equation.
No more relying on gut feelingsor hunches.

(06:42):
Just clear, data driven actions.
To keep you on track.
So if you're ready to stopspinning your wheels and start
making real progress, it's timeto embrace the business idea
decision tree.
Get ready to experiment,iterate, and unlock the full
potential of your ideas.
Your breakthrough is just aroundthe corner.

Speaker 63 (07:03):
The three steps to validating your business idea
ready to put your business ideato the test.
It's time to break out thebusiness idea decision tree.
Think of it as your trustycompass for navigating the
uncharted waters of ideavalidation.
Step one, find your tribe.
First up, we need to make sureyou're barking up the right tree
when it comes to your audience.

(07:24):
After all, even the mostbrilliant idea will fall flat if
you're pitching it to the wrongcrowd.
So, how do you find your tribe?
It's all about starting smalland testing the waters.
Whip up a bite sized offer.
Maybe a mini course, a virtualworkshop, or a four week group
coaching program.
Nothing too fancy or timeconsuming.

(07:46):
resonates.
Then, put it out there and seewho bites.
Share it with your network, postabout it on social media, and
shout it from the rooftops.
Okay, maybe not that last one.
The goal is to gauge interestand engagement.
Think of it like trying tocomplete a puzzle.
You might have to try out a fewdifferent pieces before you find

(08:08):
the ones that fit just right.
And that's okay.
The key is to stay flexible andkeep iterating until you find
that perfect match.
Remember, this is just the firststep.
If you don't, hit the bullseyeright away.
Don't throw in the towel.
Keep tweaking your idea or youraudience until you start to gain
some traction.

(08:29):
Step two Pinpoint the pain.
All right, so you found yourpeople.
They're engaged.
They're interested.
They're ready to rock Now it'stime to dig a little deeper and
make sure you're solving theright problem Here's the deal
your audience could be veryengaged But if you're not
addressing a real pressing painyour offer will flop.

(08:50):
So how do you validate theproblem?
You Easy.
Run a free challenge related tothe issue you're trying to
solve.
Invite your audience to join inand see how they respond.
Are they eager to participate?
Are they asking questions,sharing their struggles and
really digging in?
Then congratulations, you're onthe right track.
But if you're hearing crickets,it might be time to go back to

(09:13):
the drawing board.
And that's where a littleresearch comes in handy.
Fun fact, according to CBInsights, the number one reason
startups fail is because there'sno market need.
In other words, they're tryingto solve a problem that people
don't really care about.
So, if your challenge isn'tgaining traction, don't be
afraid to ask your audiencewhat's really keeping them up at

(09:34):
night.
Send out a survey, hop on somecalls, and do a little digging.
The answers might surprise you.
And remember, this is allvaluable intel.
Even if you have to pivot,you're one step closer to
cracking the code on a problemthat really matters to your
people.
Step three, get the scoop.
Okay.
So you found your audience andzeroed in on a juicy problem.

(09:56):
You're feeling pretty good aboutthis whole validation thing, but
before you break out the bubbly,there's one more step, it's time
to gather some feedback.
Maybe you're not quite sure ifyou're targeting the right folks
or you've nailed the audience,but you're still not 100 percent
clear on the problem.
Or maybe just maybe you've gotthe audience and the problem on

(10:18):
lock, but your offer isn't quitehitting the mark.
Never fear.
The survey is here.
Seriously though, this is wherethe magic happens.
It's time to go straight to thesource and ask your people what
they really think.
Not sure about your audience?
Float a new idea out there andsee how it lands.
Struggling to pinpoint the rightproblem?

(10:41):
Ask your email list or socialmedia followers about their
biggest challenges.
Offer falling flat?
Reach out to those who didn'tbuy and find out why.
The key is to gather as muchdata as you can.
Once you have that preciousfeedback in hand, you'll be
ready to take your offer to thenext level.
Just look at Uber.
When they first launched theirinitial offer was a total flop,

(11:04):
but did they give up?
No way.
They listened to their users,made some tweaks and kept on
iterating.
And now, well, you know, therest.
So don't be afraid to ask forfeedback.
Even if it stings a little,every piece of input is a clue,
a breadcrumb leading you closerto that pot of gold at the end
of the validation rainbow.

(11:26):
And once you've got all thatjuicy data.
Well, that's where the real funbegins.
But we'll save that for the nextchapter.
For now, just remember,validate, iterate, and always,
always keep your ear to theground.
Your audience holds the key tounlocking your idea's full
potential.
All you have to do is listen.

Speaker 64 (11:45):
Today's exercise, implement the business
validation decision tree.
All right, it's time to get ourhands dirty and put the business
idea decision tree to work.
This is where the rubber meetsthe road folks, where we
separate the validation prosfrom the entrepreneurs.
So block off the next 10 to 15minutes, silence your phone and

(12:05):
put on your thinking cap.
It's time to give yourvalidation offer a good hard
look.
First, pull up the business ideadecision tree.
Now, take a stroll through eachstep and evaluate how your offer
stacks up.
Question 1.
Were you able to generateexcitement about your topic
idea?
If the answer is yes, go toquestion 2.
If no, then give it a few weeksand try a new topic or different

(12:29):
audience, after you survey yourlist and social for more topic
ideas.
Question 2.
Did you tackle a problem peoplewere willing to pay for?
If the answer is yes, go toquestion 3.
If no, ask people what theirbiggest challenges are when it
comes to the topic.
Question three, did you get adecent amount of sales?
If yes, congrats.

(12:51):
If no, send an email to all thenon buyers.
Ask them to reply to your emailand share with them why they
decided not to buy at this time.
Collect what they mentioned toyou.
Did you find your tribe or areyou still searching for that
perfect audience match?
Did your free challenge strike achord or did it fall on deaf
ears?
Are people whipping out theirwallets for your paid offer?

(13:13):
Or is your checkout pagegathering virtual cobwebs?
Be honest with yourself.
This isn't the time for rosecolored glasses or wishful
thinking.
The more brutally honest youare, the better equipped you'll
be to make smart, strategicmoves.
Now here's where it gets juicy.
Look at where you're gettingstuck on the tree.
Is it the audience branch?

(13:33):
The problem branch?
The offer branch.
Wherever you're hitting a snag,that's where you'll want to
focus your energy.
It's time to get creative.
Brainstorm at least threeexperiments you could run to
unstick yourself and level upyour validation game.
And don't be afraid to thinkoutside the box.
Maybe you need to test out a newaudience by partnering with an

(13:54):
influencer in a different niche.
Or perhaps you could run aseries of polls to uncover the
problems that really keep yourpeople up at night.
Or, what if you tweaked youroffer to include a juicy bonus
or a payment plan?
So take a deep breath, roll upyour sleeves, and get ready to
experiment like a mad scientist.
The Business Idea Decision Treeis your trusty sidekick, and

(14:16):
those three experiments are yoursecret weapons.
Now, go forth and validate likea boss.
Your breakthrough is waiting.
Key takeaways.
Validation isn't a one timeevent, but an ongoing process.
Keep iterating based on feedbackuntil you reach product market
fit.

(14:37):
Use the Business ValidationDecision Tree framework.
Use it to methodically diagnoseissues with the audience,
problem, or offer.
Then Use it to determine theright adjustments to make.
You launch and then you learn.
The key to successful validationis maintaining an experimenter's
mindset.
Treat everything as a learningopportunity to refine and

(14:59):
improve.
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