Why recession odds for 2023 are fifty-fifty

As the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to drive inflation lower this year and next, the ABA Economic Advisory Committee expects stalling economic growth in 2023, followed by a modest recovery in 2024. On the latest episode of the podcast — sponsored by xChange — EAC Chair Simona Mocuta shares the committee’s consensus forecast. The chief economist at State Street Global Advisors also discusses the committee’s 50/50 recession odds for 2023, their surprising forecast for a rate cut by the end of the year (signaling their confidence in the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation), how the economic outlook may affect loan demand and credit quality.