Alf is Italian but is coming today from the Netherlands. He and Jason talk about some of the factors that contributed to the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank, the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. They discuss the moral hazard involved, mismanaged portfolios and the lack of proper risk management- factors that culminated on the banks demise, making investors question whether this will spark a broader banking meltdown.
Key Takeaways:
Jason’s editorial
1:21 Hope you enjoyed last episode
2:03 Listen to Jason’s “10 commandments of successful investing”: Thou shalt maintain control!
4:38 Housing inventory keeps falling- where’s the crash?
7:10 Almost 25% of mortgages are 3% or lower
8:19 On to our guest with a deep dive into the current banking crisis
Alfonso Peccatiello interview
9:14 Alf, coming from the Netherlands
10:03 3 Bank collapses; a summary of what really happened
13:42 US Banks loan-to-deposit ratios
16:06 Moral Hazard and a mismanaged portfolio
19:16 Big banks hedge interest rate risks- NOT SVB
22:28 Lax regulatory and accounting laws in the US for small banks
23:34 Who benefited from the collapse
24:36 Securities portfolio mix as of December 31, 2022; distinguishing between small and highly regulated banks
29:29 SVB ‘woke’ programs and the lack of proper risk management
30:39 Bank failures 2001 to 2023; are more bank collapses coming
31:56 At risk: the real estate market; unaffordable housing leads to more renters
34:50 Compared to what
37:43 The booming labor market
39:02 Credibility & central banks; Blackstone & KKR, Jerome Powell & Paul Volcker
44:25 There is no distressed home owner
48:10 Institutional investors- what their capital stack or debt structure is like
49:32 Step up your macro game https://www.themacrocompass.com
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