5月中旬，中美两国在日内瓦的谈判，为一个多月来混乱、激烈的贸易战按下暂停键。但这并不意味着经济危机的阴影已经远去。
两年前，加州大学圣地亚哥分校教授Victor Shih曾经在我们的节目中指出过中国的地方债务危机。两年之后，中国的地方债问题是否更严峻了？在作为经济增长动力的出口可能面临下滑的背景下，贸易战会如何进一步影响中国的中央财政与地方财政？贸易战可能会引发中国的财政危机吗？
Victor Shih也在节目中分享了，中国当前处理地方债务问题的“会计游戏”，中国政府在新一轮贸易战发生前做了哪些准备，以及他如何看待贸易战在国家层面的输赢与普通人的关系。欢迎收听本期节目。
文字版：https://bit.ly/bmb-151-text
时间轴：
01:58 Victor Shih评价中美贸易战的第一回合
05:09 中国政府如何应对贸易战带来的企业破产与大规模失业？
07:14 当前关税水平对中国GDP增长的影响
10:17 “财政压力可能是贸易战对中国政府产生的唯一压力”
14:47 财政压力会影响地方政府的维稳能力吗？
15:33 两年过去了，地方债的整体情况有什么变化？
18:13 贸易战之后，中国哪些省份的债务危机可能更严重？
23:24 中国政府默许传统服务业衰退、只关心AI？
25:22 中国地方债问题和普通人之间的关系
30:43 中共经济政策的逻辑是什么？
33:12 国内需求疲软和更高关税带来的双重挑战
36:43 贸易战会是一个长期的状况吗？
41:28 当中国的经济数据越来越不透明，经济学家如何判断？
46:17 嘉宾推荐
嘉宾推荐：
《Rejuvenating Communism》Jérôme Doyon
《THE IMPACT OF U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS ON U.S. SCIENCE》
相关链接：
EP-035 Victor Shih：地方债会拖垮中国经济吗？
《A 10 Trillion RMB Accounting Exercise》
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