China Deal, USDA Data, And Cattle Volatility

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We unpack the week’s swirl: China’s commitments, a reopened USDA, cattle volatility, a soybean basis snapback, and record corn chatter across the Upper Midwest. Stephen Vaden’s interview frames aid expectations and trade confidence as we look toward fast-moving data and holiday demand.

• China honoring ag purchase commitments and why it matters
• SNAP restart timing and near-term demand signals
• Cattle market volatility and producer risk management
• Screwworm risks and opposition to reopening the border
• Soybean basis recovery in North Dakota and cautious optimism
• Strong local corn yields versus national disease challenges
• Aid payments tied to current market conditions and high inputs

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Thank you, Tommy G

Episode Transcript

SPEAKER_00 (00:13):
How are we doing everyone?
Tom Grasafi, Agbo Media, AgboTrading, joined by the one and
only Jamie Dickerman.
He's up in Grand Forks, NorthDakota, Red River Farm Network.
Jamie, we've got a lot talkedabout.
We got pre-USDA jitters.
We have the government open.
We're going to be hit with moredata than any geek could ever
handle.

(00:33):
We have cattle trading downpretty hard today.
And you guys had an exclusiveinterview.
It's about 10 minutes long.
I encourage everyone to go toyour website and listen to it.
But let's start off there.
Tell us what the great Mr.
Don uh talked about with thisyoung fellow right here.

SPEAKER_01 (00:50):
Well, uh, yeah, and great to be here, Tommy.
You know, and uh yeah, our ourown Don Wick had a chance to
talk with Deputy Ag SecretaryStephen Vaden and great
interview with him.
He was very, very forthcomingwith a lot of good information
in there and talked a lot aboutuh different things, including,
you know, one of the bigquestions, I guess, that
everybody's asking, and and andwe've seen the market kind of

(01:11):
wonder this is you know, thewhole deal with China.
When that first came out,everybody was so excited about
the fact that we finally havethis deal with China, they're
gonna buy X amount of beans,they're really gonna do it.
We've got, you know, so this isgreat news for everybody.
Everybody was so excited, andthen all of a sudden, we haven't
really seen anything, haven'tseen much movement, and the

(01:31):
markets are kind of going, hey,what gives here?
Why, you know, what what'shappening?
And and and talking with Mr.
Vaden about that, he says, look,the Chinese are gonna honor that
agreement.
And basically saying if if theydon't, they know that they know
who they're dealing with, andhe's referring to President
Trump and saying that, you know,you know, they don't want to
they don't want to go back onthe deal that that they made

(01:52):
with with President Trumpbecause that won't go well for
them.
So uh he's very confident thatthe Chinese will honor that
agreement, and so I thought thatwas very interesting that he
would say that.

SPEAKER_00 (02:02):
Yeah, he seemed uh he seemed very confident.
Let's just go that.
We we gotta encourage everyonego to Red River Farm Network and
search that story.
What was that story called underyour uh website?

SPEAKER_01 (02:14):
Uh he's got well, there's actually uh several
different versions of it upthere.
If you just go to the uhrrfn.com uh website right now
and you see there's there'sdifferent different stories and
different headlines.
Uh Vaden uh Beijing expected onor the deal, you know, the
changing market conditions toinfluence aid package.
There's a lot of differentheadlines there because we broke

(02:35):
it up into several differentstories because there was so
much information in thatinterview, but because he
covered basically everything.
Uh it was good.
It was really good.

SPEAKER_00 (02:45):
I just laughed at that.
I texted down, I'm like, thatwas good stuff, and uh it was
very uh important because it wason the eve of the government
opening up.
Now we're open.
A little headline I heard fromjust uh noticed a headline from
uh Rollin Snap folks will berecharged, she thinks by this
weekend.
Friday, Saturday, Snap cardswill be going.

(03:05):
I imagine it's gonna get busy atthe stores.
People need food, they need tostart preparing for
Thanksgiving.
We're we're gonna see a littlerun on the old grocery market,
and that's great for peoplebecause it's getting cold out
there, and we got to take uhcare of the good folks.
And I think they'll get alltheir money back and more, but
there is definitely a lag, andit's probably affecting our meat
market.
Speaking of that, let's jumpright into cattle, cattle market

(03:27):
in the sellers position today.
And that bull market looking ata chart, it's still long-term
over five years trending up, butboy, in the short short term,
has it come down.
Feeder cattle about a$45 rangein the last 30 days.
What are you hearing from peoplewhen you talk cattle, Jim?

SPEAKER_01 (03:46):
Well, it's interesting, you know, and and
we when you take a look at whatthe sale barns have been doing
around here and in the region,you know, the tri-state area,
North Dakota, Minnesota, SouthDakota.
When you look at those salebarns and you look at numbers
for over the past month, andyou've seen how much it just is
such a variation, you know,between where it was, where it
went to, and it didn't take longfor it to go there either.

(04:08):
So a lot of guys real con realconscientious of that, uh real
real cautious of that.
You know, it's a great time inthe cattle market.
We've seen the you know greatnumbers and and and things were
good, but it's also a little bitscary of how volatile it is.
And there's there's a lot ofguys that are a little concerned
about that.
And and then, of course, whenyou throw in the mix of what you

(04:30):
know the president had said andand making his comments about
you know getting the price ofbeef down, that certainly made
everybody you know run for theexits a little bit.
And that uh unfortunately causedsome some things to drop.
And that's really why we've seensuch such such volatility here
lately.
But just a volatile market, justa volatile time.
It's you know, uh, one guy, Ithink uh when I was talking to

(04:53):
him yesterday said, What a timeto be alive, is what he said.
Absolutely you know, just just acrazy, unprecedented time in the
cattle world right now.

SPEAKER_00 (05:03):
Yeah, and keep an eye focused on coffee, the price
of coffee that's tied to Braziland the Brazil tariffs.
I don't know if I've ever tradeda coffee contract ever in my
life.
That may be one of the fewcommodities I've never traded.
We've traded a few orange juice,a few lumber.
I don't know if I've ever donecoffee, and I'll just watch it
from a distance from here.
Love drinking the stuff though.

(05:25):
Um but uh if Trump was to takeoff those uh tariffs from
Brazil, that would have effect.
I believe Rollins is down inMexico or going to Mexico or
talk of going to Mexico with thebig group, and as it gets cold,
they could let people let thecattle back in, and you know,
they need to get colder to uhhelp alleviate some of that

(05:45):
screw worm.
But screw worm sounds prettyserious in Mexico, James, and I
don't think we want that stuffhere yet.
We're used to taking in over amillion head of cattle a year
from Mexico.

SPEAKER_01 (05:55):
Yeah, it's uh it's something that uh when you talk
to anybody in the industry, theydon't they don't want it.
They don't want they don't wantthat border to be open right
now.
They they don't they don't feelcomfortable with it, and they
certainly don't want to dealwith the screwworm issues.
So I think I think you're gonnahear from anybody in the
industry.
I don't I don't think anybody'sgonna say, yeah, open that thing

(06:15):
up.
And I I feel like USDA has beenpretty uh cautious with it up to
this point, and the way the waySecretary Rollins has talked
about it, it doesn't appear likeuh she's in any big hurry to
open that thing up, and that'sand that's I think a good thing
for everybody in the industry.
They don't they don't want tosee it open right now, not until

(06:36):
there's a much better handle onthings with this screw warm
issue.
Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 (06:42):
Okay, we went through we got the AC Secretary,
we talked about the USDAtomorrow.
You talked to a lot of peopleover there at Red River Farm
Network.
Some people think yields couldgo up a little bit, some people
think they can go down.
The market's trading, like we'rerunning out of soybeans, or we
sold a bunch to China.
North Dakota is the hub hub ofall that because the you had the

(07:05):
poorest cash basis of anywherein the country this fall.
$1.7500 to possibly no bid wasthe talk.
Now all of a sudden, I have alot of clients.
Matter of fact, the second weget done recording, I gotta get
back to work because folks aretrading beans today on this
massive rally we've had last fewmonths.
What are you hearing, my friend?

SPEAKER_01 (07:26):
I'm hearing that too.
That uh a lot of guys are realreal happy with what's
happening, uh, at least uh inthat uh regard.
And and you know, it's it's it'samazing.
The the bean crop itself, whenyou talk to guys uh growing the
beans, they'll tell you that itwas a very much a variable year
around here.
There's some areas that didreally, really well, and then

(07:46):
some areas that did not do thatwell.
There's some disease concerns,uh mold, and certain things like
that.
So, I mean, there was there weredifferent things that they had
to put up with.
Of course, there was some uhhorrible weather situations here
with some really bad uh storms,you know, uh duratios,
tornadoes, you name it, takingthings out.
There was an early frost to dealwith.
So different things there thatthat caused that crop to be very

(08:09):
variable around here.
But that being said, uh theother part of that, of course,
is the the uncertainty aroundthe prices.
And you mentioned the basis andeverything, and in, you know, it
just a real, real uncertaintime, and it's good to to see
some movement finally, somethings happening and seeing some
seeing some things going up inthe right direction.

(08:31):
And and I think I think there'sa little more optimism around
here when it comes to uh thesoybeans when first of all, when
they when they announced thatdeal a couple of weeks ago, and
and there was actual talk aboutokay, look, the the the wheel is
starting to turn here with thedeal with China, things are
gonna turn around a little bit,we're gonna start seeing some
things happening, and then uh westarted seeing those basis

(08:53):
levels a little bit changing.
So that is, I think, you know, Ithink there's some cautious
optimism when it comes to that.
Man, talk about crops, the blethe beans variable, but I'll
tell you what, I don't know whatthey're gonna do about the the
corn numbers in the reporttomorrow.
But any guy I talk to aroundhere that grows corn, 90% of
them have said this is one forthe books around here.

(09:15):
And so, I mean, at least wherewe're sitting, the corn could be
a record crop for a lot of guysthis year up in this part of the
world.
You know, I know that there wasuh issues in some parts of the
country, obviously, withsouthern rust and everything,
but here locally in our littlebubble, there's there's a lot of
corn.
There's a lot of corn out here.

SPEAKER_00 (09:37):
Yeah, absolutely.
All right, my friend, before weend here, explain so well how in
that interview yesterday, arethere going to be Trump bucks or
not, and how much?

SPEAKER_01 (09:51):
Yeah, that's uh that's a great question.
And uh, we talked a lot aboutthat with uh Stephen Vaden, and
he basically saying, you know,they have to take into account
uh current market conditions.
And so Don had a chance to talkwith him earlier in the summer,
and that was at uh MinnesotaFarm Fest, and and Stephen Vaden
kind of made reference to thatsaying, you know, back when I

(10:13):
talked to you earlier, thesoybean price was uh much
different than it is right now.
So hitting those 15-month highsin the soybean prices, they have
to take that into account.
And so, anyway, that being said,the aid payment may not be as
much as what originally waspossibly promised or talked

(10:34):
about.
So they're looking at it fromthe price of commodities
changing a little bit.
That may change how much aidcomes out, of course.
That that's great that theprices have come up, but the
inputs haven't gone down.
So, really, that that'ssomething to be considered.
And he did say that they allalso are considering that.

(10:56):
So I guess we'll wait and seewhat really happens.
But he's he's you know, it doessound very promising that
something will be coming.
There will be something coming.
Sounds good.

SPEAKER_00 (11:08):
All right, Jamie Dickerman, Red River Farm
Network coming to us frombeautiful Grand Forks, North
Dakota.
Time of Grossafi, Eggbo Media,Eggbo Trading.
I'm in Valparaiso, Indianatoday.
We have a big bad USDA reporttomorrow.
We got a lot of news.
The government is back open.
They finally got it done.
I don't know what they got donewhile they were closed.
Like one of those songs of whatwhat were we fighting for?

(11:30):
What are we fighting over?
Who knows?
I gotta tell you, I didn't mindthe government being shut down.
I actually enjoyed it, but it itbut it's nice to see it open.
Phones are ringing.
I'm gonna get this bundled upand I'm gonna stream it out on X
and everywhere else.
Folks, if you're watching this,uh typically the video of the
Red River Farm Network is lockeddown because it's for premium

(11:51):
subscribers.
But we had the beautiful youngface of Jamie Dickerman on
today, and we didn't want tohold him back.
But if you want to subscribe topremium,$25 a month,$250 a year,
www.agbull.com.
Mr.
Jamie, you finish it up.
How do people get a hold of you?
What are you and then what areyou optimistic about in
agriculture, my friend?

SPEAKER_01 (12:11):
I am check out our website, by the way, rrfn com.
We're there.
Uh you can uh find all oursocials and everything right
there at that website.
That's the best place to go findme.
But I I'm excited about the factthat you know the government's
back open, things are gonnamove, we're gonna see a deal,
we're gonna see some thingsgoing on with China.
I feel like things are gonnapick up, and I think there's a

(12:31):
little bit of optimism, at leastwith the guys that I talk to on
a regular basis.
They feel like, you know what,uh the this this this two shall
pass, we'll turn it around,things will get better, and just
uh just hang on.
And so I think that's how Ifeel.
I feel the same way.
Just just hang on, things willturn, we'll see a turn, and uh
it's coming sooner than later,hopefully.

(12:52):
Sounds good, Jamie Dickerman.
Till next time.

SPEAKER_00 (12:54):
See ya, my friend.
Thank you.