November 14, 2025 • 42 mins
We break down a light-cut USDA report, the surprise weight from “fringe” state yields, and why corn fell while soybeans slipped despite modest changes. We connect Brazil’s growing edge, cotton’s production jump, and lender warnings to policy pivots on tariffs and trade aid.
• Corn production trimmed, carryout still higher
• Fringe states offset I‑state cuts in corn
• Soybean exports ceded to Brazil and Argentina
• CONAB vs USDA gaps on Brazil output
• Cotton yield gains in Texas pressure prices
• Daily sales resume with big Mexico corn buy
• No repeat of a Great Grain Robbery scenario
• Lenders see rising credit stress and equity burn
• Cattle cycle tightness and policy signals
• Rates near 4 percent keep financing costly
• Tariff pivot on non‑produced imports eases inflation
• Trade aid likely, size and timing adjusted
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Thank you, Tommy G
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_00 (00:00):
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gersapi.
Eggbull Media, Egg Bull Trading.
The government's open.
The USDA, I don't know what theyreleased, a bomb of sorts, and
we got just the guy to break itall down.
Hope you have a little time tospend with us.
Let's bring him in the show witha proper introduction.
(00:57):
You traveled a little bit thisweek, my friend.
SPEAKER_02 (01:00):
I traveled a lot.
Charlotte, North Carolina, for areal good fertilizer institute
meeting, and then five almost afive-hour delay getting back.
And then I had to fly to St.
Louis and then drive down toColumbia, Missouri for the
Missouri Governor's Conference,which I always like to do
because uh, little secret, theyhave the best food buffet of any
(01:23):
meeting I go to.
They have they have steak, theyhave chicken, they have turkey,
lamb, pork.
I mean, you name it, and I hadit all.
SPEAKER_00 (01:33):
Let's uh bring that microphone a little closer to
your beautiful lips.
Oh, make love to the microphone,Mr.
Weeshmayer.
There you go.
All right, like a famous discjackey that you are.
Let's start spinning records.
And where do you suggest westart?
SPEAKER_02 (01:47):
I would suggest that we start with the USDA crop
production report.
Yeah, there we go.
You know, the farm media triedto kill that corn crop, but they
didn't succeed.
SPEAKER_00 (01:57):
What do you say by that?
SPEAKER_02 (01:58):
That's our yeah, it's down what?
It's only 64 uh 62 millionbushels, I think, in corn, and
uh soybeans wasn't down thatmuch either.
You saw the uh price reaction.
I think we have the pricereaction for corn.
Uh yeah, yeah.
Yeah, they didn't like it.
SPEAKER_00 (02:16):
That's a daily chart, folks, and we have a uh
some moving averages there.
I believe we have the uh 100 dayand 200 day, but big down bar
today in corn, one of the biggerdown days we've had in a while,
Mr.
Weesmayer.
SPEAKER_02 (02:28):
Yeah, well, that's they leaned into that report on
the bull side, and they'd youknow the old line, the bull
needs to eat every day, and theydidn't eat today.
SPEAKER_00 (02:37):
Not even a little bit, no, sir.
All right, let's hop right intothis one.
SPEAKER_02 (02:41):
You got some young those were the highlights that
that we've got corn production,just you know, actually, they
have a larger beginning stocksfrom from old crop last year, so
production is forecast at 16.8billion bushels.
That's down just 62 million fromSeptember.
Heck, we we lose that going toan elevator in uh over the
(03:03):
harvest season, so that's notmuch of a reduction.
Total use is up a hundredmillion bushels.
That's uh that reflects thathigher export forecast.
We have record corn exports, sowe don't have a trade issue with
corn.
We do with a great thing, yeah.
And and the bottom line is uhsupply is rising more than use,
(03:24):
and whenever you have carryovergoing up, you're not in a bull
market.
SPEAKER_00 (03:29):
Well, time will tell.
We still have to get throughsome South American weather.
SPEAKER_02 (03:35):
Yeah, there's uh we have a graphic showing the
November horn average yield inproduction, but we just went
through that.
But let's go to the next onebecause I can, yeah, look at the
the the uh traders and analystsand general farm media, as
usual, focused on the i states.
Well, they got the reductionsthat they hyped up, but look at
(03:56):
the so-called fringe states whoare no longer fringe states.
They more than more than made upfor the almost more than made up
for the downturn in the istates.
Uh, that's my bottom line there.
SPEAKER_00 (04:08):
Yeah, that's impressive.
SPEAKER_02 (04:12):
Yes.
Uh South look at South Dakota.
SPEAKER_00 (04:14):
Dakota a little creeper, yeah.
Yeah.
All right, moving along,soybeans, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (04:19):
Look at that price.
We've had a pretty good rally,but now with lack of
follow-through China sales andthat now that crop just went
down a little bit, but it's justthey they hammered it again
today.
SPEAKER_00 (04:32):
So yeah, let's break out those numbers very specific.
SPEAKER_02 (04:37):
Yeah, there's the there's the uh yield and uh in a
few states, but let's go to thenext chart because that shows it
by by state.
unknown (04:45):
Okay.
SPEAKER_02 (04:46):
Again, we didn't see really much change from
September.
Remember, they didn't do anOctober, although they put in
some uh some information fromOctober, but I think you have to
look at the the test weights andthings like that from the
November, but you can see theincreases in some states and
decreases for others.
(05:06):
It wasn't that much of a changefrom the September soybean
yield.
SPEAKER_00 (05:11):
So here's the facts on it right here.
Yeah, here's your uh verbage onit.
SPEAKER_02 (05:15):
Down only 48 million bushels, the uh yield uh was
down only half a bushel, half abushel an acre, and supplies are
projected to be 61 millionbushels lower than September,
and exports were down six weredown 50 million bushels from the
previous forecast.
Now, this is important to pointout USDA said that was due to
(05:39):
lower supplies and higherexports by Brazil and Argentina.
In September, you'll recallArgentina temporarily reduced
their export taxes.
That led to an influx of exportregistrations US during the peak
US export season.
And since the last report ofWASDI, the the US entered a
(06:01):
trade deal with China, whichUSDA says which led to higher US
prices, but narrowed the pricespread between the US and other
countries in competing withother destinations other than
China.
So that that was the conundrumthere for soybeans.
We got priced too high too soon,and uh those Argent when when we
(06:25):
uh gave that Argentina 20billion dollars, they
immediately sold China whatseven billion dollars?
SPEAKER_00 (06:33):
Yeah, two, three days.
Yeah, when they turned on the Iwant to pop my face in here.
Oh, congrats on the blue shirtFriday, you and I we got that uh
memo.
Uh yeah, remember how upset theAmerican farmer was?
They're like, holy cow, youtrash our market, yeah, and you
go to Argentina and you givethem this money, they flip off
the grains on sale light, theysell it all in three days, like
(06:54):
Kmart had a special, and thenall of a sudden, yeah, um crazy
times.
Hey, you brought some verbiageto back that up.
You got the Brazil stuff here.
SPEAKER_02 (07:02):
Yeah, the Brazil is going to be close to watch now
because they're the formidable,they're the supermarket to the
world.
We're we no longer are that, bythe way.
USDA expects Brazil farmers willproduce 175 million metric tons
in their new crop, 2526.
That's up from 171.5 milliontons last year, but yesterday,
(07:25):
CONAB, which is the equivalentof USDA in Brazil, Tommy, they
said their farmers would produce107 almost 178 million tons for
the new crop year.
So they're already ahead of USDAon soybeans.
But look at the corn.
USDA went up from 135 to 136million tons old crop for
(07:46):
Brazil.
Conab has taken it all the wayto uh call it 141 million tons.
Look at that, 5 million tonsmore than USDA.
Then on new crop, USDA callsBrazil farmer, said Brazil will
only produce 131 million tons,and conab is at uh almost 139
(08:09):
for 25-26.
So I don't know what what whyUSDA is doing what they're
doing.
They usually get serious onBrazil until February of the new
year.
So it may take them a while tocatch up.
But uh that means we could havesome negative news from Brazil
over the next few months withtheir production if if it's
(08:31):
verified, Tommy.
But in the case of Brazil, theyused to be a seasonal competitor
to us, but now they're producingso many soybeans that now
they're a formidable competitorthrough most of our year.
And and that's what got that'swhat has the soybeans in the in
the doldrums right now.
SPEAKER_00 (08:51):
Yeah.
Going back to the USDA, you eversee those mims where a farmer
says, I think I'm gonna ask theUSDA to be a pallbearer because
I want them to be the last tolet me down?
SPEAKER_01 (09:01):
Again, to let them down again.
Yep, they're there, it's fun.
And they're gonna go, they theylived in green and they're gonna
die in green.
SPEAKER_00 (09:09):
Okay, that's that just shows the passion for the
American farmer that they lovetheir green paint.
Big shout out to John Deere outthere.
All right, we got daily exportsales coming out.
Back to the show.
SPEAKER_02 (09:21):
Yeah, we we didn't get any X daily export sales
while the government was shutdown what 43 days.
But now that they're back, uhUSDA released all the daily
sales that would have beenannounced.
And uh for the for those peopleviewing this, I yellowed out
certain things.
Uh, China, we didn't get thatmany confirmed daily soybean
(09:44):
sales to China, but yet there'sa few undone destinations in
there uh for both corn andsoybeans that could uh could uh
potentially translate to Chinalater on.
But look at the big corn sale toMexico.
That was that's the biggest oneout of all the time USDA was
out, it was over a million tonson a daily sale, Tommy.
(10:05):
So corn's uh still very exportcompetitive there, and that's a
good thing.
SPEAKER_00 (10:10):
Yeah, and just to go, let's go full-blown
conspiracy wacko theory.
There was a bunch of jokers outthere, and they they could have
been right, they weren't theyweren't wrong to think it, but
it didn't happen.
And the conspiracy theory wasthat while we were close for
45-50 days, we were gonna havethe great grain robbery.
You're old enough to rememberthat that happened in 72.
(10:30):
I was born in 72, it actuallyhappened in June of 72.
The actual week I was born, youmight have been a couple years
old, but I think you've heardabout it or read about it.
That did not happen by lookingat this list.
Mexico bought a healthy amountof corn, but there was no great
grain robbery.
Is that correct, Mr.
Weesmire?
SPEAKER_02 (10:50):
Absolutely, and I reported on it at the time I was
here.
SPEAKER_00 (10:54):
We're going through the show pretty quick.
Tell people about it.
But it's important to understandhistory, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (10:59):
That's actually because let's connect dots here.
That's why we have a dailyexport sales reporting system.
Oh, yeah, that was Congress hadhearings after the great
American grain robbery, and whatcame out of that is the export
daily sales reporting system.
I think it came out thefollowing year, but that's why
(11:19):
we started it so we could trackit.
So, yeah, absolutely.
We have a mechanism, and I thinkprobably somebody was looking at
those daily sales within USDA.
So if there would have beensomething awry, they would have
you know said something aboutit.
Very, very interesting.
I can't confirm that, but that'sprobably the case.
SPEAKER_00 (11:37):
Yeah, should we talk about the fabric of our life?
SPEAKER_02 (11:40):
Yes, yes, cotton, cotton, yes.
Look at this.
That was negative for cottonbecause they increased
production almost 900,000 bales.
And boy, we were low priced tobegin with.
I think it was around 62 centsthe last time I checked.
SPEAKER_00 (12:01):
62, 65 indeed's cotton around there, lower 60s
here for a long time.
SPEAKER_02 (12:05):
Yeah, what did we know what a closed today?
SPEAKER_00 (12:07):
Yeah, just down 50, which isn't that much.
I mean, it was up before, but uhwould you like this this chart
real quick?
SPEAKER_02 (12:14):
Yeah, that shows the acreage yield in production, and
look at the big increase, itjust shows the yield.
You know, you don't have to gomuch yield in Texas, you know,
go to the next one by six.
Oh, yes, sir, because you cansee Texas, that's where blue
means more yield, correct?
For uh the darker the blue, themore the yield increase.
But if you've got any blue inTexas, that's your big
cotton-producing state, you'regonna go uh uh up up in the U.S.
(12:38):
average total, and that'sexactly what happened.
See, this is why corn, I mean,cotton, rice, and sorghum or
milo really haven't seen theprice acceleration that we've
seen in corn and soybeans.
So even though we've had therun-up in soybeans, we'll get to
this later on, Tommy.
But a lot of people think, oh,well, will there even be a trade
(13:01):
aid program now that soybeanshave uh uh have have uh
increased?
Absolutely, you will, but theymay not get as much as before,
but I'll guarantee you cotton,rice, and sorghum will because
they haven't generated the pricerise that the other two you're
talking about this trademitigation aid programming aid
program, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (13:19):
It's coming up that in a little bit.
SPEAKER_02 (13:21):
Absolutely, we will later on because there's a
reason it may it will not likelybe announced this week.
SPEAKER_00 (13:28):
Should we talk about this what this ABA Farmer Mac
survey?
I understand you got a bunch ofclips from this.
SPEAKER_02 (13:34):
Yeah, I hate it came out uh Wednesday or Thursday.
ABA folks means American BankersAssociation and Farmer Mac
survey.
And you know, I you know, Idon't like negative news, but
this shows what's the dynamics,negative dynamics going on in
the business of agriculture.
And let's look at a few.
Only 52 percent of producersexpected to be profitable next
(13:58):
year.
That's the lowest in five years.
Row crop margins are squeezed byoversupply, wheat exports, and
high import input cost.
Most farmers know that, but nowthe world does.
Many operations now are burningequity to cover annual expenses.
And I hear and see thateverywhere I go, Tommy.
(14:18):
Next one.
SPEAKER_00 (14:19):
I don't like that.
I don't like that at all.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_02 (14:22):
Uh lenders are concerned about grain and cotton
growers.
Their concern jumped to around70%.
That's up from just 15% twoyears ago.
So the high anxiety isincreasing.
The pressures include uh flat tolower commodity prices as we uh
go into the latter part of 2025and into 2026.
(14:44):
Higher interest costs areeroding those profit margins,
operating margins, I should say,and elevated land, cash rents,
and fuel expenses.
I mean, those are all thereasons why I know a farmer
understands that, but this iswhat Congress needs to know.
SPEAKER_00 (14:58):
This one stings a little bit today.
SPEAKER_02 (15:00):
The well, the livestock has been mostly a uh
uh the bright spot.
Stronger domestic demand andfarm and firm beef and dairy
prices usually have supportedprofitability in those sectors.
Uh, we know tight cattlesupplies and protein sectors are
more resilient, and that's whatthe numbers show.
(15:23):
The widespread expectation ofrising credit stress, especially
for leveraged grain farms.
Uh, I think the biggest thing inthis coming aid package will be
farmers paying down debt, Tommy.
Okay, I really do.
That's what I think.
SPEAKER_00 (15:37):
They're not going to buy new green paint on this one.
SPEAKER_02 (15:39):
No, no.
You're gonna see continued uh uhtempered uh sales in the farm
equipment industry for sure.
I don't even have to do anysurvey for that one.
And then uh there are concernsfor 2025 and going into 2026,
persistent low crop prices,rising costs, high interest
rates, refinancing pressure,volatile land values, uncertain
(16:02):
cash rents, strained workingcapital, and liquidity and weak
grain export demand, other thancorn.
Now, I don't like to say thosethings, but I'll tell you,
Tommy, here's my biggest concernnow is that if we if we were to
make new lows and and we don'thave much of a bounce in into
2026, that's why you're gonnahave this bridge aid, not only
(16:24):
from the trade mitigationprogram, but from Congress.
If you start tilting the landmarket, you're gonna have more
than a few farmers sell aportion of land just to get by.
And that's where you couldcascade uh land prices more than
anyone thinks right now.
I saw that translate into the1980s, and I'm not predicting
(16:47):
it.
I hope it doesn't happen, but itcould.
SPEAKER_00 (16:50):
Yeah, real quick note on interest rates.
The tenure yield, everyone keepssaying interest rates are coming
down, coming down, coming down.
We had a big stock market godown this week.
We have things like Bitcointraded 95,000, big vicious moves
in both gold and silver.
Silver hit all-time highs andsold off.
But the tenure yield just theother day, 4.15.
(17:12):
It has been around 4% for thelast six months, regardless of
what the Fed does.
If you don't understand that,call or email us, we'll explain
to you more.
But the Fed could lower theshort end all they want, but the
long end has a mind of its own.
SPEAKER_02 (17:25):
Yeah, that says that there was a several Federal
Reserve governors or people onthe Federal Open Market
Committee got hawkish, as wesay, signaling that they don't
think we should cut uh interestrates in their early December
meeting at the Federal Reserve.
And that that hit the that hitthe stock market and it affected
the bond market as well.
(17:46):
That's why you had almost 800points down yesterday.
I didn't look today.
SPEAKER_00 (17:50):
Uh it was bad.
No, it was this morning.
Then it came back.
Then it came back.
So if that's why, you know, ifyou're a long-term investor, you
just don't look at this stuff.
No, just take a minute for uhstation identification.
If you'd like Mr.
Weismeyer's newsletters, he ispopping them out several a day.
He traveled a lot this week, butboy, has he been on fire.
Weismeyer at gmail.com, the oneand only Mr.
(18:13):
Jim Wiesmeyer.
You can find him here,Weissmeyer's Perspectives on the
Agble Podcast on Spotify, Apple,all the yummies, YouTube, of
course.
Now, with that, with that,folks, if you go to the you if
you go to the Agble website, asfast as he's putting out
stories, my brother Joe andmyself, we're posting them.
Now, Mr.
Weissmeyer, he's a generous man.
He gives us stuff out for free.
(18:34):
Why?
I have no idea.
But all the content I produce,I'm starting to lock down.
If you like what AgBull Media isdoing, subscribe there.
$25 a month,$250 annually,www.agbull.com.
Thank you to all the newsubscribers this week.
We appreciate it.
We're grateful.
We believe you will get yourmoney's worth.
SPEAKER_02 (18:55):
Now, with that, Tommy, let me give you a plug,
Tommy, myself.
Because I'm asked all the time.
Well, when I go out to uh givemy speeches, which I do a lot,
people who know me say, Hey, whydid you hook up quotes with
Tommy?
And I said, He's a he's a goodtrader, T-R-A-D-E-R, and I like
a person who knows marketsbecause it's a kind of a uh a
(19:18):
joint project between somebodywho knows markets and policy and
how they connect sometimes, andthat's why we chose each other,
actually.
SPEAKER_00 (19:28):
Well, thank you, thank you.
Thank you.
The markets are moving.
I have to say I'm having fun asa trader, as a broker, priority
number one to my clients, but Ilike to trade.
And boy, I made a few mistakesthis week.
I'm embarrassed to even tell youabout, but uh wrote it down in
my journal.
I gotta tell you, folks, whenyou have money into something
(19:49):
and they give you a chance totake your profit, take it.
Because when the market turns,whether it be feeder cattle or
the stock market or gold orsilver, when the market's just
bid, bid, bid, and you're longsomething, go ahead.
It's okay to pepper and get out.
Because when the market turns,you can't get out, and then that
that becomes a problem becausethese algorithms and everything
else, extremely powerful.
(20:10):
You know, I'm just a little guysitting in the basement trading
against these NVIDIA computersand everything else.
And the one thing I will saythat you I'm just loving is the
amount of information thatPresident Trump and the White
House and this USDA put out isamazing.
And the access to I mean, ourfriend Don Wick did an interview
(20:31):
with this guy this week.
My God, he was so generous withhis time.
He spent it's a 12-minuteinterview, and Don went through
all his questions, and hedidn't, you know, it was just he
got right to the point.
That boy's got some opinions.
SPEAKER_02 (20:46):
He's kind of Stephen Vane is one of the smarter
people at USD, if not thesmartest.
And he's very articulate, alawyer by training.
He knows Washington, D.C., andhe knows the issues, and he's
passionate.
So if you're passionate to me,that's that's number one.
You have to love what you'redoing, and he does.
SPEAKER_00 (21:04):
Yeah, I Googled him.
He comes from a little town inTennessee.
He's he gets it.
He gets it.
I look forward to meeting him.
I bet you we'll have him on thisshow here shortly.
I know you can't.
SPEAKER_02 (21:14):
Oh, I can get him on.
I can get him on.
SPEAKER_00 (21:16):
All righty.
Well, now let's get to whateveryone wants to talk about
cattle.
Where would you like to start incattle, sir?
SPEAKER_02 (21:21):
Well, let's show some uh charts.
I think we have some charts oncattle.
SPEAKER_00 (21:25):
Show people, case they don't know what we're
talking about.
How the West was one.
SPEAKER_02 (21:28):
That's that's the how the West was won for sure.
Then we have look at we the thethe we have record prices
because of the shrinking cattleherd.
This is 101.
Look at those prices for groundbeef, six dollars.
But there's a reason for that.
We have the lowest herd since1951, and what even our
president doesn't understand isthe cattle cycle.
(21:52):
It's gonna take two years ormore to build up those supplies,
and when you start rebuilding,you're gonna have a tighter
market until we get the theinventory up there, right?
So I don't care whether youimport more from Argentina or
import more hamburger fromBrazil, let the market work and
(22:12):
work itself out.
But they're they don't want todo that anytime in my history.
I don't care whether it's aDemocrat or a Republican, when
an administration tries to dealwith the market themselves, they
followed up.
SPEAKER_00 (22:27):
I want you to get a sip of water real quick because
you you you sound like you needone, and I'm gonna pull up the
chart.
Okay, you take a little break.
SPEAKER_02 (22:35):
There's a political one for that.
You can explain it right there.
SPEAKER_00 (22:39):
Okay, this looks like that game where you used to
put your dot your feet on thedots and twister.
This looks like twister.
And for you guys old enough toknow, half the crowd's freaking
laughing right now.
Listen to this, but all right,you got red dots and you got
blue dots.
And the red dots, I believe, arethe red states, and the blue
dots happen to be the bluestates.
(23:00):
You know what I really noticehere from top to bottom.
I guess I never really thoughtabout it, but look at Texas and
just go all the way up to NorthCoast, straight up straight up,
yeah.
But then you go to your eastcoast and your west coast,
that's where they always saythey're a little wild over
there.
And tell me about the blue dot,red dot, and how it gets cattle,
Jim.
SPEAKER_02 (23:17):
Well, that's where, like you said, from Texas, which
is the biggest circle therebecause of the cattle there, you
go straight north, all the wayup.
And this is why politically,some farm state lawmakers are
nervous to what Trump has beensaying, that he wants lower
cattle prices, because they knowwhere the cattlemen are and how
(23:40):
usually cattlemen vote, and theydon't like what Trump has been
saying about the cattle pricesthat he wants them lower.
And so that's just that's justone-on-one.
And and in the in the democraticstates, uh they have some, but
not nearly as many cattle.
And this shows you the gap thatthat going back that no, that's
(24:02):
all right.
You can do the next one.
SPEAKER_00 (24:03):
Well, the state of New York, where the hell are you
gonna put a cat on Manhattan,Jim?
SPEAKER_02 (24:07):
Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_00 (24:08):
You got the people.
SPEAKER_02 (24:09):
Yes, yeah, you got that's for the restaurant
industry, primarily, the cattlethat they do have.
Although northern New York, abeautiful country, by the way.
Yeah, I have some clients upthere actually.
Yeah, yeah, beautiful, beautifulcountry.
SPEAKER_00 (24:21):
Yes, dairy, old dairy country that the dairy's
going away, and they're justcorn farmers now.
SPEAKER_02 (24:26):
Yes, absolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (24:27):
All right, this chart, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (24:28):
Here's your gap as far as the beef deficit, and but
they they should know thisbecause of the cattle cycle, and
that's been caused by a periodof years of drought, high input
cost, and things like that.
That's your cattle inventory.
Again, it's we we keep sayingit's the lowest since 1951.
That equals a bull market if youhave cattle, and it gets harder
(24:50):
and harder to buy feeder cattlebecause you've got to have some
of that gold in order to buythem.
SPEAKER_00 (24:55):
So I want to take a little break for we'll walk our
way through and just talk aboutthis.
But the USDA did somethinginteresting this week, they
posted something on theirwebsite on Thursday and it it
made cattle go limit down.
Credit to Brooke Rollins andthem, they're working hard.
But holy smokes, when they putout that thing about screw worm
(25:15):
and the facility on theMexico-American border, did you
see the effect that had on themarkets?
SPEAKER_02 (25:22):
Absolutely, but it didn't surprise me the market
reaction.
You noted you noted that I thinklast week we said our sources
were telling us that they wannathey want to possibly partially
reopen the US-Mexico border inJanuary.
And I think the traders who hadheard that and other things,
(25:43):
they figured, oh my goodness,now this is a U.S.
uh fly area coming online.
That will add to the odds thatwould increase the odds that
they're going to announce apartial reopening of the border,
that they'll go by certainstates, maybe Arizona or New
Mexico first, and certain statesin Mexico.
(26:05):
I will tell you, Tommy, thatPresident Trump a few weeks ago,
I've been told, told USDASecretary Brooke Rollins he
wanted that border opened.
And I think uh she's uh probablytold him, well, we want to make
sure that we have action plansin place and further things that
we want to do to guard againstany screw worms coming into the
(26:30):
United States, and I thinkthat's the stage we're at.
But it's not a question of ifit's when, and more likely
January.
SPEAKER_00 (26:37):
Let me ask you a dumb question, and I'm being
serious.
I know you're gonna think I'mjoking.
But if you are an employee, anyform of employee for the federal
government, ultimately, is thisyour boss?
SPEAKER_02 (26:49):
Yeah, he's number one, he's your boss.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (26:52):
If Donald Trump wants the border open, we're
gonna work on getting the borderopen.
May not be the right thing todo, and he doesn't always do the
right thing, but he does what wego back to his picture.
SPEAKER_02 (27:01):
I wish I had I've got a picture that I can give
you for next week.
Okay, look at the top of hishair, it's a lot like the tassel
corn, right?
That's why he likes cornproducers.
SPEAKER_00 (27:12):
Yeah, yeah.
I I wonder if he's listening.
You said you said some folks inthe White House are actually
watching this video.
SPEAKER_01 (27:19):
They do, they do, they do.
SPEAKER_00 (27:20):
Well, I guess hey, if you're in the White House,
you're watching this video,you're more than welcome to come
on the Eggbowl podcast.
We could record somethinganytime you want.
And uh with that, let's justlook at folks in the White
House.
Look what you're doing to thecattle market.
Our young assistant Lindsay wasnice enough to pull up some
charts, folks.
These are daily charts livecattle.
(27:42):
Big down move.
We spiked up.
Jim, we had a limit up move.
When I talk about a mistake Imade this week, I got a butt
kicking on a limit up move.
Folks, that's called a bearmarket rally.
They're vicious, bear marketrally.
SPEAKER_02 (27:58):
Yeah, bear trap.
A bull trap.
Bull trap.
SPEAKER_00 (28:02):
Yeah, bear.
It's we're going straight down,but the rally back up, a short
covering rally, is vicious.
Happens in the stock market allthe time.
SPEAKER_02 (28:11):
They picked you off.
Well, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (28:14):
A fool and his money were lucky to get together in
the first place.
All right, that's live cattle.
Here's feeder cattle.
Same thing, Jim.
We have so many gaps to cover,but this is what everyone's
gonna be talking about.
See that hundred that uh redline?
Yeah, that's the hundred-daymoving average.
See the blue line, folks.
Yeah, that's the 200 day.
We traded below the 200.
I'm not quite sure.
I'd I'm gonna go with that.
We close real close to it.
(28:35):
And one more chart that youmight say, Tommy, Jim, why are
you looking at live cattle,feeder cattle in the NASDAQ?
Well, believe it or not, there'ssome major, major, major money
flows.
There's a talk of AI changing,blowing up.
People got a little frothy inthis, but who did we have some
volatility in the stock market,my friend?
Your 401k was it by 501k wentback to 401k.
(28:59):
401 and a half right now.
I'm sorry.
SPEAKER_02 (29:00):
Although we we're not down that much for the week,
actually.
SPEAKER_00 (29:03):
That that's an interesting way of looking at
it.
You know how I always tellpeople, Jim, if you want to
learn a little bit more abouttrading, don't look at the price
of something changed.
If if I remember at the Board ofTrade when the Dow Jones, we had
Dow Jones futures, they startedat the board, whereas the Merck
had the NASDAQ and the SP.
We had Dow Jones 10,000 hats.
If you are walking aroundtelling someone the Dow had a
(29:24):
bad day, it's down 500.
You need your head examined.
Yeah, it was down 1.2%.
Talk in percents.
Yeah, so when people say cattlehad a horrible day, folks, they
were down three percent.
These are commodity markets,they're allowed to move that
much.
Copper this year had an up 22%move in one day and a down 24%
(29:46):
move in one day.
That's a move, folks.
A one and a half percent moveisn't as big of a deal.
But the reason it matters iseveryone of all ages, life
savings, retirement, etc., iswrapped up.
We're probably over-leveraged,Jim, in the stock market.
We own too much stocks.
We're not diversified enough.
Would you agree?
SPEAKER_02 (30:07):
Uh, the most people are.
I'm not.
I'm I'm diversifying.
SPEAKER_00 (30:10):
Okay.
Well, if you likediversification, you're gonna
get a chance to buy some Bitcoinhere because it's on sale.
That is not a recommendation.
That is just a comment.
But I do have something for you,Jim.
A gift box of coffee is comingto your house.
I'm tired of listening tocomplain about it on the
internet.
What's going on with it?
SPEAKER_02 (30:25):
On the internet and my speeches, because that's
where you know, you'll recallour president Trump in April
when he came out with hisinitial trade plan.
If he would have stuck with theoriginal uh concept of uh
reciprocity, reciprocal, likewe're gonna treat you the way
you treat us.
That uh every it was easy tounderstand, it made logical
(30:49):
sense.
Then they started to get complexand increase uh tariffs on our
allies, uh Canada and Mexico,beyond the USMCA agreement.
They got into Brazil where wehad a trade surplus and still
and put a 50% tariff on Brazil,and they didn't differentiate.
(31:10):
Any ag person should have toldTrump, you know, if you do this,
you're gonna have sticky foodinflation because we get uh all
of our coffee imported.
SPEAKER_00 (31:24):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (31:24):
Now they did a waiver early on for orange
juice, but not coffee.
Why was that?
I I don't know.
But now they should, I don'tknow whether they're out
officially, but they're gonnaannounce today, they meaning the
Trump administration with U.S.
trade rep Jameis and Greer, thatthey're uh taking off the
tariffs for certain commoditiesthat the U.S.
(31:46):
doesn't produce.
Well, that should have been tobegin with, and I think it's
their admission, they'll neveradmit it publicly, that tariffs
are tax increases.
SPEAKER_00 (31:58):
And I want to talk about that because I heard Chip
Flory say something.
He said he was saying thattariffs are a tax, it creates
inflation, and then he he backedoff, and then the government's
now like, hey, we're gonna giveyou two thousand dollars because
these tariffs, which chip issaying, and credit to him,
that's just a give you the moneyback without turning over,
(32:20):
right?
SPEAKER_02 (32:20):
Yeah, and I don't know whether they'll get the two
thousand, they can't announcethat administratively, I don't
think that has to come throughCongress, and it's a hard thing
to get anything throughCongress, but it is an admission
that tariffs, at least the waythey worked on it after the
increasing it beyond the uh youknow reciprocal trade you know
(32:42):
policy, absolutely it increasedprices, and that's why you have
sticky inflation, that's why youhave uh uh lumber prices with
the Canadian tariffs.
You're gonna have higher housingprices, uh uh coffee, the
fruits, uh bananas.
We don't produce bananas, butyet they put those tariffs on.
SPEAKER_00 (33:01):
Hey, I'll tell you what we do produce in America
some nuts.
Have you read the blogs and thecomments on some of this stuff?
Oh, you should see these cattlepeople fighting amongst
themselves.
This group against that group.
Real quick, I got a picture ofthat's Jamison Greer, the U.S.
SPEAKER_02 (33:15):
trade rap.
A good guy, knowledgeable guy,very aggressive on China.
He helped write the first uhUS-China phase one agreement.
He wrote a lot of the languagein the US Mexico-Canada
agreement.
He knows his stuff, but now hethey're going, they're having to
acknowledge, as we keep saying,you know, we've got to fine-tune
(33:37):
this uh trade policy we havebecause it's starting to hurt
Americans.
Thank goodness they they theyhave the ability to admit uh a
mistake, not overtly, butthey're admitting it today.
SPEAKER_00 (33:48):
I'm about to the end of the show, but I do want to go
back and touch on this on yourpop-up headlines.
We had governments reopen.
Yes, we are.
Trust tariff pivot.
Anything you want to add tothat, Mr.
Wees?
SPEAKER_02 (33:58):
Well, yeah, I want to talk about the U.S.
government reopening.
Oh, well, the tariff, let'sfirst start at the top.
SPEAKER_00 (34:04):
U.S.
SPEAKER_02 (34:04):
government reopens 43 days we were shut down.
Now, most of the questions I'mgetting, Tommy, is will they
shut it down again?
Because they only have acontinuing resolution until
January 30th, but not for USDA.
The good news is that theyapproved a full fiscal year
through next September USDAfunding.
(34:26):
That means we have all the foodstamp funding that they need,
all the WIC money.
They put they replenish theCommodity Credit Corporation
funding back to its$30 billionborrowing authority.
So we won't have to worry aboutanother shutdown if and when it
happens.
I don't think it will, but if itwere to happen, USDA will still
(34:47):
operate.
Okay, that's a good thing.
Now, what will happen to most ofthe agencies?
I think they only had threeappropriation bills in this
legislation that passed both theuh House and the Senate,
including USDA.
That means nine.
So I'm not going to predict howJanuary 30th is going to go
(35:08):
because December is going to bevery important.
We're going to watch how manybills, individual bills, the
appropriation committees in boththe House and Senate can get
done before January 30th.
That's when the latestcontinuing resolution goes
through, you know, January 30th.
Two, is that by mid-December,Senate Majority Leader John
(35:30):
Thune promised the Democratsthat he would bring up a vote on
extending the COVID-relatedincreases in Obamacare or the
Affordable Care Act.
We're going to have to see howthat goes and see what can
happen.
It'll be curious if theRepublicans ever offer an
(35:50):
alternative for health carereform.
Trump wants to give actual uh uhthose eligible for Obamacare
payments that he wants to put ameans test on, by the way, and
he should, that he wants to givethem a tax incentive or our a
check so they can go into theprivate insurance money.
(36:11):
He wants to take all that money,Tommy, billions of dollars,
going to insurance companies inthe uh in the uh uh Affordable
Care Act, uh Obamacare.
So we're gonna see that, how howit plays out in December.
So, but the bottom line, I don'tthink neither political party
wants to have another shutdowncome January 30th.
(36:33):
We learned again, this time itwas the Democrats, the
Republicans learned it beforethat.
You do not shut down thegovernment to get what you want
from a policy perspective.
It just doesn't work.
It just doesn't work, and so theDemocrats uh I think lost this
battle, but other ones say,well, we're gonna see in
December.
(36:53):
So that's where I say on that.
That uh most of the USDA officesare fully staffed now.
They're coming back, they'recoming back to work uh in
physical offices at USDA Southbuilding, and your FSA offices
and NRDS should be fullystaffed, and we're gonna have
that food stamp money totallyout to those states by Monday,
(37:13):
Secretary Rollins said the otherday.
SPEAKER_00 (37:16):
Very good.
Okay, I didn't understand thispop-up Trump tariff pivot.
What's that mean?
SPEAKER_02 (37:20):
Well, that's the pivot.
That's why they're acknowledgingthat they're coming out with
different agreements with theCentral and Latin America to
remove some of those tariffs onthose crops that we don't
produce here, or for those farmproducts, I should say, that we
don't produce here.
That's a pivot.
SPEAKER_00 (37:37):
Coffee, banana.
We can't get in the coffeebusiness, we can't get in the
banana.
Well enough said.
SPEAKER_02 (37:41):
Okay, again, a logical common sense person
would have known that.
So you look at all those smartpeople they have in there,
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson,who says he's got a soybean farm
out in I think South Dakota,North Dakota, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (37:56):
Like, come on, have you ever font?
Oh, he's got a lot of land, he'sgot a lot of land, and they
asked him why didn't you sellthat farm ground?
I thought you had to liquidateyour assets, and you know what
he said was it was a beautifulquote.
Oh, I liquidated my stockportfolio, but I didn't have
time to liquidate my land beforeI became nor should he.
It's a great asset.
The man uh has every right toown land, and yes, God bless
(38:19):
him.
I I love him.
Is he gonna be our next Fedgovernor?
No, he won't.
SPEAKER_02 (38:22):
He doesn't want the Fed.
It's down to about four or fivepeople.
One of the possibilities is uhuh the National Economic Council
director Kevin Hassett.
The other one, I think who willbe, I forget Ken Walsh,
W-A-R-S-H.
Look him up.
I think he's gonna be the nextFed chairman.
SPEAKER_00 (38:40):
We'll talk about it next week and we'll do a round
robin uh see what the Betty's.
Our clients, our listeners, fansof Weissmeier, are Trump bucks
still coming?
What's going on?
SPEAKER_02 (38:51):
They're still coming, but you saw, remember
just a few weeks ago, uh USDASecretary Brooke Rollins said,
just as soon as the governmentopens up, we're gonna announce
the trade mitigation aid tradeaid program.
And so did Senate Senator JohnHolman from North Dakota.
Well, I don't think it's comingout today.
Now, why is that?
(39:11):
Well, I think they wanted tolook at the USDA report today,
they have it now to see how itwould affect prices, to see how
they factored in those potentialChina sales.
I think they they were offset,as USDA said, by decreased
soybean exports to othernations.
And I think the White Houseplayed a role saying, well, wait
(39:32):
a minute, we maybe Trump wantsto be part of that coming
announcement.
And so that means they have tohave the right logistics in
place, or maybe SecretaryRollins wants to announce it as
uh at a specific uh speech in ina in a in a state where she
wants to.
So, but it's coming.
We're not going to we're goingto have a trade aid program, but
(39:56):
it's probably going to change asa result of the recent run-up in
prices for some commodities,corn and soybeans.
But that doesn't mean farmersdon't need it because of the
numbers.
Let's connect dots, Tommy, thatthat ABA and Farmer Mac survey
showed.
We need a bridge into 2026 andnot just trade aid.
(40:20):
House Ag Committee Chairman GTThompson, Republican from
Pennsylvania, says this tradeaid is just a down payment.
This is the first tranche.
Additional farmer aid is goingto come later this year in a
must-passed uh spending bill.
I don't know what level, butit'll be similar to the$10
billion that uh they inked forfarm aid on December 21st last
(40:44):
year.
And it's needed because of thefertilizer, high fertilizer, and
the debt repayment.
Uh yeah, absolutely.
Debt repayment, higher inputcost, etc.
SPEAKER_00 (40:55):
Higher health insurance, higher life
insurance, higher everythinginsurance.
Trump bucks, we still think areon the way.
Mr.
Weissmeyer, we're at the end ofthe show.
You are the star.
This is your show.
And of course, you get to finishit.
But you better stay optimistic,my friend.
SPEAKER_02 (41:09):
I'm still optimistic, and I will not call
uh farmer and rancher aid anegative.
To me, it's positive becausewhy?
Food is security, it's nationalsecurity, it's needed.
If you want to have a cheaperfood policy, not cheap, a
cheaper food policy, you pay itone for one way or the other at
(41:30):
the supermarket, which we don'tlike, those prices going up too
high, or a combination of pricesand taxpayer uh assistance, and
that's what we're going to have.
And I and I don't think anyfarmer should say, of course
they want trade and not aid, butuntil we get there, uh we have
to have that bridge assistance,and it's coming.
SPEAKER_00 (41:52):
Mr.
Jim Weiss Mayor.
Thank you, sir.
See you next week.
Happy Friday, everyone.
Tom Gersapi.
Eggbull Media, Egg Bull Trading.
The government's open.
The USDA, I don't know what theyreleased, a bomb of sorts, and
we got just the guy to break itall down.
Hope you have a little time tospend with us.
Let's bring him in the show witha proper introduction.
(00:57):
You traveled a little bit thisweek, my friend.
SPEAKER_02 (01:00):
I traveled a lot.
Charlotte, North Carolina, for areal good fertilizer institute
meeting, and then five almost afive-hour delay getting back.
And then I had to fly to St.
Louis and then drive down toColumbia, Missouri for the
Missouri Governor's Conference,which I always like to do
because uh, little secret, theyhave the best food buffet of any
(01:23):
meeting I go to.
They have they have steak, theyhave chicken, they have turkey,
lamb, pork.
I mean, you name it, and I hadit all.
SPEAKER_00 (01:33):
Let's uh bring that microphone a little closer to
your beautiful lips.
Oh, make love to the microphone,Mr.
Weeshmayer.
There you go.
All right, like a famous discjackey that you are.
Let's start spinning records.
And where do you suggest westart?
SPEAKER_02 (01:47):
I would suggest that we start with the USDA crop
production report.
Yeah, there we go.
You know, the farm media triedto kill that corn crop, but they
didn't succeed.
SPEAKER_00 (01:57):
What do you say by that?
SPEAKER_02 (01:58):
That's our yeah, it's down what?
It's only 64 uh 62 millionbushels, I think, in corn, and
uh soybeans wasn't down thatmuch either.
You saw the uh price reaction.
I think we have the pricereaction for corn.
Uh yeah, yeah.
Yeah, they didn't like it.
SPEAKER_00 (02:16):
That's a daily chart, folks, and we have a uh
some moving averages there.
I believe we have the uh 100 dayand 200 day, but big down bar
today in corn, one of the biggerdown days we've had in a while,
Mr.
Weesmayer.
SPEAKER_02 (02:28):
Yeah, well, that's they leaned into that report on
the bull side, and they'd youknow the old line, the bull
needs to eat every day, and theydidn't eat today.
SPEAKER_00 (02:37):
Not even a little bit, no, sir.
All right, let's hop right intothis one.
SPEAKER_02 (02:41):
You got some young those were the highlights that
that we've got corn production,just you know, actually, they
have a larger beginning stocksfrom from old crop last year, so
production is forecast at 16.8billion bushels.
That's down just 62 million fromSeptember.
Heck, we we lose that going toan elevator in uh over the
(03:03):
harvest season, so that's notmuch of a reduction.
Total use is up a hundredmillion bushels.
That's uh that reflects thathigher export forecast.
We have record corn exports, sowe don't have a trade issue with
corn.
We do with a great thing, yeah.
And and the bottom line is uhsupply is rising more than use,
(03:24):
and whenever you have carryovergoing up, you're not in a bull
market.
SPEAKER_00 (03:29):
Well, time will tell.
We still have to get throughsome South American weather.
SPEAKER_02 (03:35):
Yeah, there's uh we have a graphic showing the
November horn average yield inproduction, but we just went
through that.
But let's go to the next onebecause I can, yeah, look at the
the the uh traders and analystsand general farm media, as
usual, focused on the i states.
Well, they got the reductionsthat they hyped up, but look at
(03:56):
the so-called fringe states whoare no longer fringe states.
They more than more than made upfor the almost more than made up
for the downturn in the istates.
Uh, that's my bottom line there.
SPEAKER_00 (04:08):
Yeah, that's impressive.
SPEAKER_02 (04:12):
Yes.
Uh South look at South Dakota.
SPEAKER_00 (04:14):
Dakota a little creeper, yeah.
Yeah.
All right, moving along,soybeans, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (04:19):
Look at that price.
We've had a pretty good rally,but now with lack of
follow-through China sales andthat now that crop just went
down a little bit, but it's justthey they hammered it again
today.
SPEAKER_00 (04:32):
So yeah, let's break out those numbers very specific.
SPEAKER_02 (04:37):
Yeah, there's the there's the uh yield and uh in a
few states, but let's go to thenext chart because that shows it
by by state.
unknown (04:45):
Okay.
SPEAKER_02 (04:46):
Again, we didn't see really much change from
September.
Remember, they didn't do anOctober, although they put in
some uh some information fromOctober, but I think you have to
look at the the test weights andthings like that from the
November, but you can see theincreases in some states and
decreases for others.
(05:06):
It wasn't that much of a changefrom the September soybean
yield.
SPEAKER_00 (05:11):
So here's the facts on it right here.
Yeah, here's your uh verbage onit.
SPEAKER_02 (05:15):
Down only 48 million bushels, the uh yield uh was
down only half a bushel, half abushel an acre, and supplies are
projected to be 61 millionbushels lower than September,
and exports were down six weredown 50 million bushels from the
previous forecast.
Now, this is important to pointout USDA said that was due to
(05:39):
lower supplies and higherexports by Brazil and Argentina.
In September, you'll recallArgentina temporarily reduced
their export taxes.
That led to an influx of exportregistrations US during the peak
US export season.
And since the last report ofWASDI, the the US entered a
(06:01):
trade deal with China, whichUSDA says which led to higher US
prices, but narrowed the pricespread between the US and other
countries in competing withother destinations other than
China.
So that that was the conundrumthere for soybeans.
We got priced too high too soon,and uh those Argent when when we
(06:25):
uh gave that Argentina 20billion dollars, they
immediately sold China whatseven billion dollars?
SPEAKER_00 (06:33):
Yeah, two, three days.
Yeah, when they turned on the Iwant to pop my face in here.
Oh, congrats on the blue shirtFriday, you and I we got that uh
memo.
Uh yeah, remember how upset theAmerican farmer was?
They're like, holy cow, youtrash our market, yeah, and you
go to Argentina and you givethem this money, they flip off
the grains on sale light, theysell it all in three days, like
(06:54):
Kmart had a special, and thenall of a sudden, yeah, um crazy
times.
Hey, you brought some verbiageto back that up.
You got the Brazil stuff here.
SPEAKER_02 (07:02):
Yeah, the Brazil is going to be close to watch now
because they're the formidable,they're the supermarket to the
world.
We're we no longer are that, bythe way.
USDA expects Brazil farmers willproduce 175 million metric tons
in their new crop, 2526.
That's up from 171.5 milliontons last year, but yesterday,
(07:25):
CONAB, which is the equivalentof USDA in Brazil, Tommy, they
said their farmers would produce107 almost 178 million tons for
the new crop year.
So they're already ahead of USDAon soybeans.
But look at the corn.
USDA went up from 135 to 136million tons old crop for
(07:46):
Brazil.
Conab has taken it all the wayto uh call it 141 million tons.
Look at that, 5 million tonsmore than USDA.
Then on new crop, USDA callsBrazil farmer, said Brazil will
only produce 131 million tons,and conab is at uh almost 139
(08:09):
for 25-26.
So I don't know what what whyUSDA is doing what they're
doing.
They usually get serious onBrazil until February of the new
year.
So it may take them a while tocatch up.
But uh that means we could havesome negative news from Brazil
over the next few months withtheir production if if it's
(08:31):
verified, Tommy.
But in the case of Brazil, theyused to be a seasonal competitor
to us, but now they're producingso many soybeans that now
they're a formidable competitorthrough most of our year.
And and that's what got that'swhat has the soybeans in the in
the doldrums right now.
SPEAKER_00 (08:51):
Yeah.
Going back to the USDA, you eversee those mims where a farmer
says, I think I'm gonna ask theUSDA to be a pallbearer because
I want them to be the last tolet me down?
SPEAKER_01 (09:01):
Again, to let them down again.
Yep, they're there, it's fun.
And they're gonna go, they theylived in green and they're gonna
die in green.
SPEAKER_00 (09:09):
Okay, that's that just shows the passion for the
American farmer that they lovetheir green paint.
Big shout out to John Deere outthere.
All right, we got daily exportsales coming out.
Back to the show.
SPEAKER_02 (09:21):
Yeah, we we didn't get any X daily export sales
while the government was shutdown what 43 days.
But now that they're back, uhUSDA released all the daily
sales that would have beenannounced.
And uh for the for those peopleviewing this, I yellowed out
certain things.
Uh, China, we didn't get thatmany confirmed daily soybean
(09:44):
sales to China, but yet there'sa few undone destinations in
there uh for both corn andsoybeans that could uh could uh
potentially translate to Chinalater on.
But look at the big corn sale toMexico.
That was that's the biggest oneout of all the time USDA was
out, it was over a million tonson a daily sale, Tommy.
(10:05):
So corn's uh still very exportcompetitive there, and that's a
good thing.
SPEAKER_00 (10:10):
Yeah, and just to go, let's go full-blown
conspiracy wacko theory.
There was a bunch of jokers outthere, and they they could have
been right, they weren't theyweren't wrong to think it, but
it didn't happen.
And the conspiracy theory wasthat while we were close for
45-50 days, we were gonna havethe great grain robbery.
You're old enough to rememberthat that happened in 72.
(10:30):
I was born in 72, it actuallyhappened in June of 72.
The actual week I was born, youmight have been a couple years
old, but I think you've heardabout it or read about it.
That did not happen by lookingat this list.
Mexico bought a healthy amountof corn, but there was no great
grain robbery.
Is that correct, Mr.
Weesmire?
SPEAKER_02 (10:50):
Absolutely, and I reported on it at the time I was
here.
SPEAKER_00 (10:54):
We're going through the show pretty quick.
Tell people about it.
But it's important to understandhistory, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (10:59):
That's actually because let's connect dots here.
That's why we have a dailyexport sales reporting system.
Oh, yeah, that was Congress hadhearings after the great
American grain robbery, and whatcame out of that is the export
daily sales reporting system.
I think it came out thefollowing year, but that's why
(11:19):
we started it so we could trackit.
So, yeah, absolutely.
We have a mechanism, and I thinkprobably somebody was looking at
those daily sales within USDA.
So if there would have beensomething awry, they would have
you know said something aboutit.
Very, very interesting.
I can't confirm that, but that'sprobably the case.
SPEAKER_00 (11:37):
Yeah, should we talk about the fabric of our life?
SPEAKER_02 (11:40):
Yes, yes, cotton, cotton, yes.
Look at this.
That was negative for cottonbecause they increased
production almost 900,000 bales.
And boy, we were low priced tobegin with.
I think it was around 62 centsthe last time I checked.
SPEAKER_00 (12:01):
62, 65 indeed's cotton around there, lower 60s
here for a long time.
SPEAKER_02 (12:05):
Yeah, what did we know what a closed today?
SPEAKER_00 (12:07):
Yeah, just down 50, which isn't that much.
I mean, it was up before, but uhwould you like this this chart
real quick?
SPEAKER_02 (12:14):
Yeah, that shows the acreage yield in production, and
look at the big increase, itjust shows the yield.
You know, you don't have to gomuch yield in Texas, you know,
go to the next one by six.
Oh, yes, sir, because you cansee Texas, that's where blue
means more yield, correct?
For uh the darker the blue, themore the yield increase.
But if you've got any blue inTexas, that's your big
cotton-producing state, you'regonna go uh uh up up in the U.S.
(12:38):
average total, and that'sexactly what happened.
See, this is why corn, I mean,cotton, rice, and sorghum or
milo really haven't seen theprice acceleration that we've
seen in corn and soybeans.
So even though we've had therun-up in soybeans, we'll get to
this later on, Tommy.
But a lot of people think, oh,well, will there even be a trade
(13:01):
aid program now that soybeanshave uh uh have have uh
increased?
Absolutely, you will, but theymay not get as much as before,
but I'll guarantee you cotton,rice, and sorghum will because
they haven't generated the pricerise that the other two you're
talking about this trademitigation aid programming aid
program, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (13:19):
It's coming up that in a little bit.
SPEAKER_02 (13:21):
Absolutely, we will later on because there's a
reason it may it will not likelybe announced this week.
SPEAKER_00 (13:28):
Should we talk about this what this ABA Farmer Mac
survey?
I understand you got a bunch ofclips from this.
SPEAKER_02 (13:34):
Yeah, I hate it came out uh Wednesday or Thursday.
ABA folks means American BankersAssociation and Farmer Mac
survey.
And you know, I you know, Idon't like negative news, but
this shows what's the dynamics,negative dynamics going on in
the business of agriculture.
And let's look at a few.
Only 52 percent of producersexpected to be profitable next
(13:58):
year.
That's the lowest in five years.
Row crop margins are squeezed byoversupply, wheat exports, and
high import input cost.
Most farmers know that, but nowthe world does.
Many operations now are burningequity to cover annual expenses.
And I hear and see thateverywhere I go, Tommy.
(14:18):
Next one.
SPEAKER_00 (14:19):
I don't like that.
I don't like that at all.
Here we go.
SPEAKER_02 (14:22):
Uh lenders are concerned about grain and cotton
growers.
Their concern jumped to around70%.
That's up from just 15% twoyears ago.
So the high anxiety isincreasing.
The pressures include uh flat tolower commodity prices as we uh
go into the latter part of 2025and into 2026.
(14:44):
Higher interest costs areeroding those profit margins,
operating margins, I should say,and elevated land, cash rents,
and fuel expenses.
I mean, those are all thereasons why I know a farmer
understands that, but this iswhat Congress needs to know.
SPEAKER_00 (14:58):
This one stings a little bit today.
SPEAKER_02 (15:00):
The well, the livestock has been mostly a uh
uh the bright spot.
Stronger domestic demand andfarm and firm beef and dairy
prices usually have supportedprofitability in those sectors.
Uh, we know tight cattlesupplies and protein sectors are
more resilient, and that's whatthe numbers show.
(15:23):
The widespread expectation ofrising credit stress, especially
for leveraged grain farms.
Uh, I think the biggest thing inthis coming aid package will be
farmers paying down debt, Tommy.
Okay, I really do.
That's what I think.
SPEAKER_00 (15:37):
They're not going to buy new green paint on this one.
SPEAKER_02 (15:39):
No, no.
You're gonna see continued uh uhtempered uh sales in the farm
equipment industry for sure.
I don't even have to do anysurvey for that one.
And then uh there are concernsfor 2025 and going into 2026,
persistent low crop prices,rising costs, high interest
rates, refinancing pressure,volatile land values, uncertain
(16:02):
cash rents, strained workingcapital, and liquidity and weak
grain export demand, other thancorn.
Now, I don't like to say thosethings, but I'll tell you,
Tommy, here's my biggest concernnow is that if we if we were to
make new lows and and we don'thave much of a bounce in into
2026, that's why you're gonnahave this bridge aid, not only
(16:24):
from the trade mitigationprogram, but from Congress.
If you start tilting the landmarket, you're gonna have more
than a few farmers sell aportion of land just to get by.
And that's where you couldcascade uh land prices more than
anyone thinks right now.
I saw that translate into the1980s, and I'm not predicting
(16:47):
it.
I hope it doesn't happen, but itcould.
SPEAKER_00 (16:50):
Yeah, real quick note on interest rates.
The tenure yield, everyone keepssaying interest rates are coming
down, coming down, coming down.
We had a big stock market godown this week.
We have things like Bitcointraded 95,000, big vicious moves
in both gold and silver.
Silver hit all-time highs andsold off.
But the tenure yield just theother day, 4.15.
(17:12):
It has been around 4% for thelast six months, regardless of
what the Fed does.
If you don't understand that,call or email us, we'll explain
to you more.
But the Fed could lower theshort end all they want, but the
long end has a mind of its own.
SPEAKER_02 (17:25):
Yeah, that says that there was a several Federal
Reserve governors or people onthe Federal Open Market
Committee got hawkish, as wesay, signaling that they don't
think we should cut uh interestrates in their early December
meeting at the Federal Reserve.
And that that hit the that hitthe stock market and it affected
the bond market as well.
(17:46):
That's why you had almost 800points down yesterday.
I didn't look today.
SPEAKER_00 (17:50):
Uh it was bad.
No, it was this morning.
Then it came back.
Then it came back.
So if that's why, you know, ifyou're a long-term investor, you
just don't look at this stuff.
No, just take a minute for uhstation identification.
If you'd like Mr.
Weismeyer's newsletters, he ispopping them out several a day.
He traveled a lot this week, butboy, has he been on fire.
Weismeyer at gmail.com, the oneand only Mr.
(18:13):
Jim Wiesmeyer.
You can find him here,Weissmeyer's Perspectives on the
Agble Podcast on Spotify, Apple,all the yummies, YouTube, of
course.
Now, with that, with that,folks, if you go to the you if
you go to the Agble website, asfast as he's putting out
stories, my brother Joe andmyself, we're posting them.
Now, Mr.
Weissmeyer, he's a generous man.
He gives us stuff out for free.
(18:34):
Why?
I have no idea.
But all the content I produce,I'm starting to lock down.
If you like what AgBull Media isdoing, subscribe there.
$25 a month,$250 annually,www.agbull.com.
Thank you to all the newsubscribers this week.
We appreciate it.
We're grateful.
We believe you will get yourmoney's worth.
SPEAKER_02 (18:55):
Now, with that, Tommy, let me give you a plug,
Tommy, myself.
Because I'm asked all the time.
Well, when I go out to uh givemy speeches, which I do a lot,
people who know me say, Hey, whydid you hook up quotes with
Tommy?
And I said, He's a he's a goodtrader, T-R-A-D-E-R, and I like
a person who knows marketsbecause it's a kind of a uh a
(19:18):
joint project between somebodywho knows markets and policy and
how they connect sometimes, andthat's why we chose each other,
actually.
SPEAKER_00 (19:28):
Well, thank you, thank you.
Thank you.
The markets are moving.
I have to say I'm having fun asa trader, as a broker, priority
number one to my clients, but Ilike to trade.
And boy, I made a few mistakesthis week.
I'm embarrassed to even tell youabout, but uh wrote it down in
my journal.
I gotta tell you, folks, whenyou have money into something
(19:49):
and they give you a chance totake your profit, take it.
Because when the market turns,whether it be feeder cattle or
the stock market or gold orsilver, when the market's just
bid, bid, bid, and you're longsomething, go ahead.
It's okay to pepper and get out.
Because when the market turns,you can't get out, and then that
that becomes a problem becausethese algorithms and everything
else, extremely powerful.
(20:10):
You know, I'm just a little guysitting in the basement trading
against these NVIDIA computersand everything else.
And the one thing I will saythat you I'm just loving is the
amount of information thatPresident Trump and the White
House and this USDA put out isamazing.
And the access to I mean, ourfriend Don Wick did an interview
(20:31):
with this guy this week.
My God, he was so generous withhis time.
He spent it's a 12-minuteinterview, and Don went through
all his questions, and hedidn't, you know, it was just he
got right to the point.
That boy's got some opinions.
SPEAKER_02 (20:46):
He's kind of Stephen Vane is one of the smarter
people at USD, if not thesmartest.
And he's very articulate, alawyer by training.
He knows Washington, D.C., andhe knows the issues, and he's
passionate.
So if you're passionate to me,that's that's number one.
You have to love what you'redoing, and he does.
SPEAKER_00 (21:04):
Yeah, I Googled him.
He comes from a little town inTennessee.
He's he gets it.
He gets it.
I look forward to meeting him.
I bet you we'll have him on thisshow here shortly.
I know you can't.
SPEAKER_02 (21:14):
Oh, I can get him on.
I can get him on.
SPEAKER_00 (21:16):
All righty.
Well, now let's get to whateveryone wants to talk about
cattle.
Where would you like to start incattle, sir?
SPEAKER_02 (21:21):
Well, let's show some uh charts.
I think we have some charts oncattle.
SPEAKER_00 (21:25):
Show people, case they don't know what we're
talking about.
How the West was one.
SPEAKER_02 (21:28):
That's that's the how the West was won for sure.
Then we have look at we the thethe we have record prices
because of the shrinking cattleherd.
This is 101.
Look at those prices for groundbeef, six dollars.
But there's a reason for that.
We have the lowest herd since1951, and what even our
president doesn't understand isthe cattle cycle.
(21:52):
It's gonna take two years ormore to build up those supplies,
and when you start rebuilding,you're gonna have a tighter
market until we get the theinventory up there, right?
So I don't care whether youimport more from Argentina or
import more hamburger fromBrazil, let the market work and
(22:12):
work itself out.
But they're they don't want todo that anytime in my history.
I don't care whether it's aDemocrat or a Republican, when
an administration tries to dealwith the market themselves, they
followed up.
SPEAKER_00 (22:27):
I want you to get a sip of water real quick because
you you you sound like you needone, and I'm gonna pull up the
chart.
Okay, you take a little break.
SPEAKER_02 (22:35):
There's a political one for that.
You can explain it right there.
SPEAKER_00 (22:39):
Okay, this looks like that game where you used to
put your dot your feet on thedots and twister.
This looks like twister.
And for you guys old enough toknow, half the crowd's freaking
laughing right now.
Listen to this, but all right,you got red dots and you got
blue dots.
And the red dots, I believe, arethe red states, and the blue
dots happen to be the bluestates.
(23:00):
You know what I really noticehere from top to bottom.
I guess I never really thoughtabout it, but look at Texas and
just go all the way up to NorthCoast, straight up straight up,
yeah.
But then you go to your eastcoast and your west coast,
that's where they always saythey're a little wild over
there.
And tell me about the blue dot,red dot, and how it gets cattle,
Jim.
SPEAKER_02 (23:17):
Well, that's where, like you said, from Texas, which
is the biggest circle therebecause of the cattle there, you
go straight north, all the wayup.
And this is why politically,some farm state lawmakers are
nervous to what Trump has beensaying, that he wants lower
cattle prices, because they knowwhere the cattlemen are and how
(23:40):
usually cattlemen vote, and theydon't like what Trump has been
saying about the cattle pricesthat he wants them lower.
And so that's just that's justone-on-one.
And and in the in the democraticstates, uh they have some, but
not nearly as many cattle.
And this shows you the gap thatthat going back that no, that's
(24:02):
all right.
You can do the next one.
SPEAKER_00 (24:03):
Well, the state of New York, where the hell are you
gonna put a cat on Manhattan,Jim?
SPEAKER_02 (24:07):
Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_00 (24:08):
You got the people.
SPEAKER_02 (24:09):
Yes, yeah, you got that's for the restaurant
industry, primarily, the cattlethat they do have.
Although northern New York, abeautiful country, by the way.
Yeah, I have some clients upthere actually.
Yeah, yeah, beautiful, beautifulcountry.
SPEAKER_00 (24:21):
Yes, dairy, old dairy country that the dairy's
going away, and they're justcorn farmers now.
SPEAKER_02 (24:26):
Yes, absolutely.
SPEAKER_00 (24:27):
All right, this chart, sir.
SPEAKER_02 (24:28):
Here's your gap as far as the beef deficit, and but
they they should know thisbecause of the cattle cycle, and
that's been caused by a periodof years of drought, high input
cost, and things like that.
That's your cattle inventory.
Again, it's we we keep sayingit's the lowest since 1951.
That equals a bull market if youhave cattle, and it gets harder
(24:50):
and harder to buy feeder cattlebecause you've got to have some
of that gold in order to buythem.
SPEAKER_00 (24:55):
So I want to take a little break for we'll walk our
way through and just talk aboutthis.
But the USDA did somethinginteresting this week, they
posted something on theirwebsite on Thursday and it it
made cattle go limit down.
Credit to Brooke Rollins andthem, they're working hard.
But holy smokes, when they putout that thing about screw worm
(25:15):
and the facility on theMexico-American border, did you
see the effect that had on themarkets?
SPEAKER_02 (25:22):
Absolutely, but it didn't surprise me the market
reaction.
You noted you noted that I thinklast week we said our sources
were telling us that they wannathey want to possibly partially
reopen the US-Mexico border inJanuary.
And I think the traders who hadheard that and other things,
(25:43):
they figured, oh my goodness,now this is a U.S.
uh fly area coming online.
That will add to the odds thatwould increase the odds that
they're going to announce apartial reopening of the border,
that they'll go by certainstates, maybe Arizona or New
Mexico first, and certain statesin Mexico.
(26:05):
I will tell you, Tommy, thatPresident Trump a few weeks ago,
I've been told, told USDASecretary Brooke Rollins he
wanted that border opened.
And I think uh she's uh probablytold him, well, we want to make
sure that we have action plansin place and further things that
we want to do to guard againstany screw worms coming into the
(26:30):
United States, and I thinkthat's the stage we're at.
But it's not a question of ifit's when, and more likely
January.
SPEAKER_00 (26:37):
Let me ask you a dumb question, and I'm being
serious.
I know you're gonna think I'mjoking.
But if you are an employee, anyform of employee for the federal
government, ultimately, is thisyour boss?
SPEAKER_02 (26:49):
Yeah, he's number one, he's your boss.
Yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (26:52):
If Donald Trump wants the border open, we're
gonna work on getting the borderopen.
May not be the right thing todo, and he doesn't always do the
right thing, but he does what wego back to his picture.
SPEAKER_02 (27:01):
I wish I had I've got a picture that I can give
you for next week.
Okay, look at the top of hishair, it's a lot like the tassel
corn, right?
That's why he likes cornproducers.
SPEAKER_00 (27:12):
Yeah, yeah.
I I wonder if he's listening.
You said you said some folks inthe White House are actually
watching this video.
SPEAKER_01 (27:19):
They do, they do, they do.
SPEAKER_00 (27:20):
Well, I guess hey, if you're in the White House,
you're watching this video,you're more than welcome to come
on the Eggbowl podcast.
We could record somethinganytime you want.
And uh with that, let's justlook at folks in the White
House.
Look what you're doing to thecattle market.
Our young assistant Lindsay wasnice enough to pull up some
charts, folks.
These are daily charts livecattle.
(27:42):
Big down move.
We spiked up.
Jim, we had a limit up move.
When I talk about a mistake Imade this week, I got a butt
kicking on a limit up move.
Folks, that's called a bearmarket rally.
They're vicious, bear marketrally.
SPEAKER_02 (27:58):
Yeah, bear trap.
A bull trap.
Bull trap.
SPEAKER_00 (28:02):
Yeah, bear.
It's we're going straight down,but the rally back up, a short
covering rally, is vicious.
Happens in the stock market allthe time.
SPEAKER_02 (28:11):
They picked you off.
Well, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (28:14):
A fool and his money were lucky to get together in
the first place.
All right, that's live cattle.
Here's feeder cattle.
Same thing, Jim.
We have so many gaps to cover,but this is what everyone's
gonna be talking about.
See that hundred that uh redline?
Yeah, that's the hundred-daymoving average.
See the blue line, folks.
Yeah, that's the 200 day.
We traded below the 200.
I'm not quite sure.
I'd I'm gonna go with that.
We close real close to it.
(28:35):
And one more chart that youmight say, Tommy, Jim, why are
you looking at live cattle,feeder cattle in the NASDAQ?
Well, believe it or not, there'ssome major, major, major money
flows.
There's a talk of AI changing,blowing up.
People got a little frothy inthis, but who did we have some
volatility in the stock market,my friend?
Your 401k was it by 501k wentback to 401k.
(28:59):
401 and a half right now.
I'm sorry.
SPEAKER_02 (29:00):
Although we we're not down that much for the week,
actually.
SPEAKER_00 (29:03):
That that's an interesting way of looking at
it.
You know how I always tellpeople, Jim, if you want to
learn a little bit more abouttrading, don't look at the price
of something changed.
If if I remember at the Board ofTrade when the Dow Jones, we had
Dow Jones futures, they startedat the board, whereas the Merck
had the NASDAQ and the SP.
We had Dow Jones 10,000 hats.
If you are walking aroundtelling someone the Dow had a
(29:24):
bad day, it's down 500.
You need your head examined.
Yeah, it was down 1.2%.
Talk in percents.
Yeah, so when people say cattlehad a horrible day, folks, they
were down three percent.
These are commodity markets,they're allowed to move that
much.
Copper this year had an up 22%move in one day and a down 24%
(29:46):
move in one day.
That's a move, folks.
A one and a half percent moveisn't as big of a deal.
But the reason it matters iseveryone of all ages, life
savings, retirement, etc., iswrapped up.
We're probably over-leveraged,Jim, in the stock market.
We own too much stocks.
We're not diversified enough.
Would you agree?
SPEAKER_02 (30:07):
Uh, the most people are.
I'm not.
I'm I'm diversifying.
SPEAKER_00 (30:10):
Okay.
Well, if you likediversification, you're gonna
get a chance to buy some Bitcoinhere because it's on sale.
That is not a recommendation.
That is just a comment.
But I do have something for you,Jim.
A gift box of coffee is comingto your house.
I'm tired of listening tocomplain about it on the
internet.
What's going on with it?
SPEAKER_02 (30:25):
On the internet and my speeches, because that's
where you know, you'll recallour president Trump in April
when he came out with hisinitial trade plan.
If he would have stuck with theoriginal uh concept of uh
reciprocity, reciprocal, likewe're gonna treat you the way
you treat us.
That uh every it was easy tounderstand, it made logical
(30:49):
sense.
Then they started to get complexand increase uh tariffs on our
allies, uh Canada and Mexico,beyond the USMCA agreement.
They got into Brazil where wehad a trade surplus and still
and put a 50% tariff on Brazil,and they didn't differentiate.
(31:10):
Any ag person should have toldTrump, you know, if you do this,
you're gonna have sticky foodinflation because we get uh all
of our coffee imported.
SPEAKER_00 (31:24):
Yeah.
SPEAKER_02 (31:24):
Now they did a waiver early on for orange
juice, but not coffee.
Why was that?
I I don't know.
But now they should, I don'tknow whether they're out
officially, but they're gonnaannounce today, they meaning the
Trump administration with U.S.
trade rep Jameis and Greer, thatthey're uh taking off the
tariffs for certain commoditiesthat the U.S.
(31:46):
doesn't produce.
Well, that should have been tobegin with, and I think it's
their admission, they'll neveradmit it publicly, that tariffs
are tax increases.
SPEAKER_00 (31:58):
And I want to talk about that because I heard Chip
Flory say something.
He said he was saying thattariffs are a tax, it creates
inflation, and then he he backedoff, and then the government's
now like, hey, we're gonna giveyou two thousand dollars because
these tariffs, which chip issaying, and credit to him,
that's just a give you the moneyback without turning over,
(32:20):
right?
SPEAKER_02 (32:20):
Yeah, and I don't know whether they'll get the two
thousand, they can't announcethat administratively, I don't
think that has to come throughCongress, and it's a hard thing
to get anything throughCongress, but it is an admission
that tariffs, at least the waythey worked on it after the
increasing it beyond the uh youknow reciprocal trade you know
(32:42):
policy, absolutely it increasedprices, and that's why you have
sticky inflation, that's why youhave uh uh lumber prices with
the Canadian tariffs.
You're gonna have higher housingprices, uh uh coffee, the
fruits, uh bananas.
We don't produce bananas, butyet they put those tariffs on.
SPEAKER_00 (33:01):
Hey, I'll tell you what we do produce in America
some nuts.
Have you read the blogs and thecomments on some of this stuff?
Oh, you should see these cattlepeople fighting amongst
themselves.
This group against that group.
Real quick, I got a picture ofthat's Jamison Greer, the U.S.
SPEAKER_02 (33:15):
trade rap.
A good guy, knowledgeable guy,very aggressive on China.
He helped write the first uhUS-China phase one agreement.
He wrote a lot of the languagein the US Mexico-Canada
agreement.
He knows his stuff, but now hethey're going, they're having to
acknowledge, as we keep saying,you know, we've got to fine-tune
(33:37):
this uh trade policy we havebecause it's starting to hurt
Americans.
Thank goodness they they theyhave the ability to admit uh a
mistake, not overtly, butthey're admitting it today.
SPEAKER_00 (33:48):
I'm about to the end of the show, but I do want to go
back and touch on this on yourpop-up headlines.
We had governments reopen.
Yes, we are.
Trust tariff pivot.
Anything you want to add tothat, Mr.
Wees?
SPEAKER_02 (33:58):
Well, yeah, I want to talk about the U.S.
government reopening.
Oh, well, the tariff, let'sfirst start at the top.
SPEAKER_00 (34:04):
U.S.
SPEAKER_02 (34:04):
government reopens 43 days we were shut down.
Now, most of the questions I'mgetting, Tommy, is will they
shut it down again?
Because they only have acontinuing resolution until
January 30th, but not for USDA.
The good news is that theyapproved a full fiscal year
through next September USDAfunding.
(34:26):
That means we have all the foodstamp funding that they need,
all the WIC money.
They put they replenish theCommodity Credit Corporation
funding back to its$30 billionborrowing authority.
So we won't have to worry aboutanother shutdown if and when it
happens.
I don't think it will, but if itwere to happen, USDA will still
(34:47):
operate.
Okay, that's a good thing.
Now, what will happen to most ofthe agencies?
I think they only had threeappropriation bills in this
legislation that passed both theuh House and the Senate,
including USDA.
That means nine.
So I'm not going to predict howJanuary 30th is going to go
(35:08):
because December is going to bevery important.
We're going to watch how manybills, individual bills, the
appropriation committees in boththe House and Senate can get
done before January 30th.
That's when the latestcontinuing resolution goes
through, you know, January 30th.
Two, is that by mid-December,Senate Majority Leader John
(35:30):
Thune promised the Democratsthat he would bring up a vote on
extending the COVID-relatedincreases in Obamacare or the
Affordable Care Act.
We're going to have to see howthat goes and see what can
happen.
It'll be curious if theRepublicans ever offer an
(35:50):
alternative for health carereform.
Trump wants to give actual uh uhthose eligible for Obamacare
payments that he wants to put ameans test on, by the way, and
he should, that he wants to givethem a tax incentive or our a
check so they can go into theprivate insurance money.
(36:11):
He wants to take all that money,Tommy, billions of dollars,
going to insurance companies inthe uh in the uh uh Affordable
Care Act, uh Obamacare.
So we're gonna see that, how howit plays out in December.
So, but the bottom line, I don'tthink neither political party
wants to have another shutdowncome January 30th.
(36:33):
We learned again, this time itwas the Democrats, the
Republicans learned it beforethat.
You do not shut down thegovernment to get what you want
from a policy perspective.
It just doesn't work.
It just doesn't work, and so theDemocrats uh I think lost this
battle, but other ones say,well, we're gonna see in
December.
(36:53):
So that's where I say on that.
That uh most of the USDA officesare fully staffed now.
They're coming back, they'recoming back to work uh in
physical offices at USDA Southbuilding, and your FSA offices
and NRDS should be fullystaffed, and we're gonna have
that food stamp money totallyout to those states by Monday,
(37:13):
Secretary Rollins said the otherday.
SPEAKER_00 (37:16):
Very good.
Okay, I didn't understand thispop-up Trump tariff pivot.
What's that mean?
SPEAKER_02 (37:20):
Well, that's the pivot.
That's why they're acknowledgingthat they're coming out with
different agreements with theCentral and Latin America to
remove some of those tariffs onthose crops that we don't
produce here, or for those farmproducts, I should say, that we
don't produce here.
That's a pivot.
SPEAKER_00 (37:37):
Coffee, banana.
We can't get in the coffeebusiness, we can't get in the
banana.
Well enough said.
SPEAKER_02 (37:41):
Okay, again, a logical common sense person
would have known that.
So you look at all those smartpeople they have in there,
Treasury Secretary Scott Besson,who says he's got a soybean farm
out in I think South Dakota,North Dakota, yeah.
SPEAKER_00 (37:56):
Like, come on, have you ever font?
Oh, he's got a lot of land, he'sgot a lot of land, and they
asked him why didn't you sellthat farm ground?
I thought you had to liquidateyour assets, and you know what
he said was it was a beautifulquote.
Oh, I liquidated my stockportfolio, but I didn't have
time to liquidate my land beforeI became nor should he.
It's a great asset.
The man uh has every right toown land, and yes, God bless
(38:19):
him.
I I love him.
Is he gonna be our next Fedgovernor?
No, he won't.
SPEAKER_02 (38:22):
He doesn't want the Fed.
It's down to about four or fivepeople.
One of the possibilities is uhuh the National Economic Council
director Kevin Hassett.
The other one, I think who willbe, I forget Ken Walsh,
W-A-R-S-H.
Look him up.
I think he's gonna be the nextFed chairman.
SPEAKER_00 (38:40):
We'll talk about it next week and we'll do a round
robin uh see what the Betty's.
Our clients, our listeners, fansof Weissmeier, are Trump bucks
still coming?
What's going on?
SPEAKER_02 (38:51):
They're still coming, but you saw, remember
just a few weeks ago, uh USDASecretary Brooke Rollins said,
just as soon as the governmentopens up, we're gonna announce
the trade mitigation aid tradeaid program.
And so did Senate Senator JohnHolman from North Dakota.
Well, I don't think it's comingout today.
Now, why is that?
(39:11):
Well, I think they wanted tolook at the USDA report today,
they have it now to see how itwould affect prices, to see how
they factored in those potentialChina sales.
I think they they were offset,as USDA said, by decreased
soybean exports to othernations.
And I think the White Houseplayed a role saying, well, wait
(39:32):
a minute, we maybe Trump wantsto be part of that coming
announcement.
And so that means they have tohave the right logistics in
place, or maybe SecretaryRollins wants to announce it as
uh at a specific uh speech in ina in a in a state where she
wants to.
So, but it's coming.
We're not going to we're goingto have a trade aid program, but
(39:56):
it's probably going to change asa result of the recent run-up in
prices for some commodities,corn and soybeans.
But that doesn't mean farmersdon't need it because of the
numbers.
Let's connect dots, Tommy, thatthat ABA and Farmer Mac survey
showed.
We need a bridge into 2026 andnot just trade aid.
(40:20):
House Ag Committee Chairman GTThompson, Republican from
Pennsylvania, says this tradeaid is just a down payment.
This is the first tranche.
Additional farmer aid is goingto come later this year in a
must-passed uh spending bill.
I don't know what level, butit'll be similar to the$10
billion that uh they inked forfarm aid on December 21st last
(40:44):
year.
And it's needed because of thefertilizer, high fertilizer, and
the debt repayment.
Uh yeah, absolutely.
Debt repayment, higher inputcost, etc.
SPEAKER_00 (40:55):
Higher health insurance, higher life
insurance, higher everythinginsurance.
Trump bucks, we still think areon the way.
Mr.
Weissmeyer, we're at the end ofthe show.
You are the star.
This is your show.
And of course, you get to finishit.
But you better stay optimistic,my friend.
SPEAKER_02 (41:09):
I'm still optimistic, and I will not call
uh farmer and rancher aid anegative.
To me, it's positive becausewhy?
Food is security, it's nationalsecurity, it's needed.
If you want to have a cheaperfood policy, not cheap, a
cheaper food policy, you pay itone for one way or the other at
(41:30):
the supermarket, which we don'tlike, those prices going up too
high, or a combination of pricesand taxpayer uh assistance, and
that's what we're going to have.
And I and I don't think anyfarmer should say, of course
they want trade and not aid, butuntil we get there, uh we have
to have that bridge assistance,and it's coming.
SPEAKER_00 (41:52):
Mr.
Jim Weiss Mayor.
Thank you, sir.
See you next week.
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