November 7, 2025 • 39 mins
We track a cascading week where a grinding shutdown hits flights and the economy, China’s soybean pledges collide with tariff math, and a Justice Department probe into meat packers meets a looming border reopening that could reshape beef supply. Markets swing on headlines as EPA biofuel exemptions, fertilizer policy shifts, and fresh crop data set the next moves while affordability becomes the political keyword.
• shutdown stalemate, filibuster pressure, and GDP risk
• FAA cuts to flights and airline delays
• market rebound into the close despite chaos
• China soybean commitments versus Brazil’s tariff edge
• waiver paths and competitiveness for U.S. beans
• pork’s 47 percent China tariff and lost share
• DOJ probe talk on meat packers and pricing
• screwworm, border closure, and phased reopening plans
• cattle futures at key moving averages and gaps
• EPA small refinery exemptions and soybean oil impact
• phosphate and potash added to critical minerals list
• upcoming WASDE, crop production, and Brazil old-crop estimates
• election takeaways and affordability as the core message
• food stamp payment updates and court actions
Please click like and subscribe. Tell a friend about this. This video is free and open to the public.
Please like and subscribe @agbullmedia
The Ag Bull website is Live www.agbull.com
Watch Us on U-Tube AG Bull Podcast
(105) AG Bull Podcast - YouTube
www.agbull.com
AG BULL Media
E-Mail tg@agbull.com
Thank you, Tommy G
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
SPEAKER_02 (00:01):
Welcome to the AGBO podcast.
Welcome to EggBow Media, AGBOTrading.
I'm here in Nashville, Tennesseeat Nasvik Trading Group, and my
head's still spinning.
I'm spinning.
I'm glad I don't have to talkmuch through this show.
We just had some breaking news,and we're really excited to tell
you about it.
Now, with that, I got to givethis guy the introduction he
deserves to.
(00:54):
Let's just hit it, brother.
Happy Friday.
SPEAKER_00 (00:57):
A lot to go through.
SPEAKER_02 (00:58):
Yes, sir.
All right.
We're still shut down.
Shut down continues, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (01:03):
Yeah, and it's going to affect me now because I
travel both Monday and Wednesdayon an airplane, and hopefully
they'll have a solution thisweekend, but don't hold your
breath on that because we havesome breaking news.
Uh Chuck Schumer, who's theminority leader in the Senate,
told the Republicans theyoffered they would come back and
(01:25):
vote to return the government ifthe Republicans would go along
with the one-year extension ofthe Obamacare subsidies.
That's the Affordable Care Act.
It didn't take a nanosecond forthe Republicans to reject that
offer.
So there we are now.
(01:46):
Now, what I would suggest is wehave to see whether Senator John
Thune, he's the Senate majorityleader, Republican from South
Dakota, John Thune.
Yes, whether or not he keeps theSenate working this weekend.
If he does, there's still achance that they can work out a
(02:07):
compromise.
If he sends them home, it couldbe another week or two before we
get a solution to this, whateverit will be, Tommy.
But uh both ends and stuff.
SPEAKER_02 (02:20):
Come on.
SPEAKER_01 (02:20):
We'll get into the elections later that happened
Tuesday, but it went very wellfor the Democrats.
And so that's made them dig ineven more to get what they want.
They want to extract a favor, inthis case, the Obamacare
subsidies.
But the Republicans are notgoing to go along.
(02:43):
And Trump is involved on thisbecause he wants to do away with
the Senate filibuster.
Now, the Senate filibuster is onmost legislation, not all, uh
Supreme Court justices onlyneeds a majority vote now.
But Trump wants them to waive orto do away with the filibuster.
Now that's significant, whereThune and others in the
(03:06):
Republican Party in the Senatedon't want to do that because
they know the Democrats willeventually come back in control
of the Senate chamber and coulddo all sorts of stuff, like
adding two states, Puerto Rico,DC.
They could uh increase thenumber of Supreme Court
justices, they could make allillegal immigrants uh legal, and
(03:27):
that would make Texas ademocratic state, things like
that.
So they don't want that.
So I I told a couple people onthe Hill they should just
partial waiver the filibusterfor the government shutdown.
So I don't know whether thatwould be that means that well,
you could write legislation thatonly needs a majority vote in
(03:47):
the Senate, by the way, thatthey could say a government
shutdown lasting more than Xdays, pick a day, 20, 30, or 38
days.
We're in the 38th day.
The uh the it would say thatCongress, uh it would say the
U.S.
government is reopened, youknow, pending further
appropriation debates.
(04:09):
But I don't know whether they'llgo that way or not, because
they're both at loggerheads, andnow we're seeing substantial
impacts uh starting to occur inthe airline industry for sure.
But you've got the FAA saying uh10% beginning today of flights
are going to be curtailed at 40major U.S.
(04:30):
airports, and in my case, it'sboth Washington National, Reagan
National, and Dulles Airport iswhat I use.
And I think you had 1,200 eitherdelayed or canceled flights
today alone.
And so here we go.
And it's affecting the economybecause National Economic
(04:50):
Council director Kevin Hassetton uh Fox Business yesterday, I
think oh no, that was thismorning, said that it could
reduce the U.S.
economy in the current quarterby 50% or more.
So it's having an impact uh onbusiness practices.
SPEAKER_02 (05:12):
And with that, what we're filming this right at
three o'clock central time, andthe stock market's closing, the
Dows up like 50, and the NasdaqDows up 60, and the Nasdaq's
only down 50.
Full disclosure, folks, theNASDAQ was down 500 earlier
today.
Hey, I have a question.
This might be for a later partof the show, but what about
people depending on this?
42 million Americans.
(05:33):
Are they getting what are theydoing?
SPEAKER_01 (05:35):
Well, they're starting uh the the recipients
are starting to get due to courtaction additional uh you know
funding of that, 65 percent ofwhat they normally get.
Now, the court ruled that USDAshould go to 100 level, but then
the the Trump administrationappealed that in a court request
(05:57):
this morning.
So that's still tied up in ininto the courts.
But this is all the emotion,emotionality of it, because
that's not good signal when youhave uh the over 40 million
people get food stamps and whenthey're cut off, that that's
that's bad.
SPEAKER_02 (06:16):
Yeah, and I I think the stock market's calling BS on
everything because the SP 500just closed green, Dow Green,
and the NASDAQ.
If uh given another two minutes,if it could open, still be open,
it would be green.
And there could be some reasonsto that, and I'll go with this
next headline.
We do have some form of a Chinatrade deal, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (06:34):
Yes, and remember last week when I ended it on an
upbeat move mood, watch this.
Now, we've got a lot ofnaysayers out this in the in the
ag sector because they want tosee China uh announce the same
thing that the US did relativeto the soybean amounts.
But the trade agreement clearlysays China has committed to
(06:57):
purchase 12 million metric tonsof soybeans between now and the
end of December, and 25 millionmetric tons of soybeans for
calendar years, 26, 27, and 28.
The problem, as we show in thisgraphic, the US is not
competitive in soybeans rightnow to Brazil, because uh
(07:19):
Brazil's uh import uh tariffstotal, including the VAT, with
both countries uh the uh youknow pay the value uh added tax,
that's VAT of 13.
But Brazil's import tariff isthree percent versus the United
States 13 percent.
So that's the equivalent of uh44 a metric ton or dollar forty
(07:47):
a uh dollar twenty a bushel.
That's big.
That's big.
So so what what the what thismeans now, and like you know, in
this chart again, which I alwayscome back to, look at Brazil's
production ever since the firstTrump administration's trade war
with China.
Look how much they've increasedrelative to the U.S.
(08:09):
and even Argentina.
They're a force to be reckonedwith.
We have to get the U.S.
soybean price competitive.
Now, either that 10% tariff as aresult of the fentanyl tariff
that still remains, and that'swhat China put on us.
Now, either that has to comeoff, or China has to offer
(08:30):
waivers to the Chinese buyers,whether or not they're state
trading companies or the privatesector buying for China.
Uh that's that's still to bedetermined.
We're we may know more Novemberthe 10th.
That's Monday, because that'swhen these take effect at one
o'clock Eastern Time, midnightChina time, okay, one o'clock
(08:55):
p.m.
Eastern time, and we're gonnasee some of these policies go
into effect, Tommy.
But many, some more than a fewpeople in the U.S.
ag trade, analysts or traders, Idon't know whether they're
talking their position or not,they've uh then been very jaded.
They're saying, uh, they don'tthink China's gonna commit to
(09:16):
the, you know, commit or followthrough on this because they
really didn't follow through allthat much in the phase one
agreement under Trump's firstadministration.
But I say it's thecompetitiveness nature of that
price.
But we're early in the Trumpadministration's 2.0.
And if they don't fulfill theircommitment, then Trump could put
(09:39):
on tariffs later on, and thenwe're back into the soup all
over again.
But bottom line, this is earlyin the ball game.
We have to see whether or notChina's gonna uh initiate a
waiver, or we're gonna have tosee if that 10% tariff, if Trump
were to announce China'sfulfilling and being very
aggressive in helping us stopfentanyl coming into the United
(10:04):
States and their products thatmake it.
And if he lifts that 10% tariffthat remains on fentanyl on
China, the Chinese then wouldlift that 10% tariff on U.S.
soybeans and bingo, U.S.
soybean prices are competitive.
SPEAKER_02 (10:22):
Okay.
And on a morning meeting thismorning at Nasvic Trading Group,
our friend Dan Bossi from AgResource.
I think you've been at speakingengagements with Mr.
Uh D.
SPEAKER_00 (10:31):
Oh, yeah, know him.
SPEAKER_02 (10:32):
Yeah, and uh he joins our morning call and he
said, Listen, folks, China's atrader.
If Brazil's cheaper thanAmerica, they're buying Brazil,
regardless of what they saidthey're gonna do, they go buy
the cheapest soybeans in theworld.
That's just business.
SPEAKER_01 (10:46):
Can't blame them.
SPEAKER_02 (10:46):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (10:47):
And that's what they have that clause in the uh phase
phase one agreement.
And I know Dan, I don't knowwhether he told you that he and
some others think that China gotsome initial coverage in the
market by by the futures market,either soybeans or some people
say it, even maybe meal, youknow, soybean meal.
And I've got an email saying,well, if that's true, if it is
(11:09):
true, then what happens whenthey actually buy the physical
commodity?
Is that bullish or bearish?
Well, Tommy, you're the you'rethe trader.
I would think that would bebearish when they have to
offset, right?
SPEAKER_02 (11:21):
If they if they went long, yeah, we have had some big
down days here in meal thisweek.
We you'd come in at night andyou're like, wow, meal's down a
bunch.
We had that down 30 day inbeans, but we've had some nice
recoveries also.
Jim, you posted this next chartreal quick, and uh it's very
similar to the first green boxchart, but this is that's the
pork that tells me look at lookat the difference between the
(11:43):
U.S.
SPEAKER_01 (11:44):
tariff rate on pork and other countries.
We're we're still at look at theright hand side, the total
applied tariff rate is 47percent.
You know, we're not gonna sellmuch for U.S.
pork to China because unlikesome other commodities, China
put on a 25% tariff on U.S.
(12:07):
pork as a result of those steeland aluminum tariffs uh under
section 232 that that Trump puton them.
So I give a lot of pork industryspeeches, and I wish I had
better news for them, but boy,that's an albatross to go
through 47% tariff.
SPEAKER_02 (12:24):
Uh speaking of pork here on the futures market, it
was just a few weeks ago porkwas going up, up.
My hog producers were makingmargin calls, and uh pork has
had a big, big down move here.
The it went from really lookinggood to it's pulled back.
We're all the focus and talk ison cattle, but hogs have had a
large pullback here the lastthree, four weeks, Jim.
(12:46):
So maybe we get cheap enough, wewill become uh competitive
there.
I it's like you don't want theprice to go down so much, we
become no competitive.
Next headline, sir, speed roundno tenth loom large loom.
SPEAKER_01 (12:57):
Well, that's the November.
When we come into the office onMonday, I'll be gone.
I'll be in hopefully I'll be inin Charlotte uh talking to the
fertilizer institute.
But that's when the actualagreements between Trump and Xi
Jinping take effect about oneo'clock Eastern time.
And so now we're gonna seewhether or not there's some
(13:18):
follow-through on some otherpurchases, not just beans, but
wheat and sorghum.
We had some smaller amounts thisweek that were confirmed, and
maybe some other things.
And I will tell you, I'm gonnago up to my notes here because
remember that fair that wetalked about last week of that
China fair in Shanghai?
(13:39):
Well, one Chinese firm signedcontracts to import$5.2 billion
in soybeans, corn, cotton, andother agricultural products,
although the country of originis still not confirmed.
Now, that's that's Reuters onthat one.
But you know, then at the fair,I also saw a translation that a
(14:01):
Chinese official pushed forcooperation between Chinese and
overseas firms to buildprocessing facilities and
logistics hubs abroad to quotein ensure a stable, secure, and
resilient global ag industrychain.
Now that's interesting.
That's something I'm going topursue as the weeks and months
(14:23):
go on.
But they're showing commitmentshere of purchasing a chunk of uh
agricultural commodities.
Let's hope it's uh US products.
SPEAKER_02 (14:34):
I think we're getting to the breaking news
part.
This is uh a multifaceted uhpop-up here because upon well,
stage is yours.
SPEAKER_01 (14:42):
Well, we get we have the breaking news where Trump
wants more supply of beef and hewants lower prices.
He keeps saying that.
Uh he's a broken record now, andhe's not gonna stop.
Now, the breaking news, do wehave the uh true social quote?
SPEAKER_02 (14:58):
Yeah, I gotta play the uh breaking news reel.
I get full disclosure credit forthat beeping sound.
This just came out minutes ago.
SPEAKER_01 (15:12):
He's asked the Department of Justice to
immediately that begins now,begin an investigation into the
meat packing companies.
I would say anotherinvestigation over the years,
who are driving up the price ofbeef through illicit collusion.
This is Trump, price fixing andprice manipulation.
Uh, you know, you got to proveit first before you say it.
(15:33):
We will always protect ourAmerican ranchers, and they are
being blamed for what is beingdone by majority foreign-owned
meat packers who artificiallyinflate prices and jeopardize
the security of our nation'sfood supply.
Action must be taken immediatelyto protect consumers, combat
illegal monopolies, and ensurethese corporations are not
(15:56):
criminally profiting at theexpense of the American people.
I'm asking the Department ofJustice to act expeditiously.
Thank you for your attention tothis matter.
That's Trump word for word.
He is he's not stopping on onwanting beef prices to go down.
That brings us into thefollow-up story on this is the
(16:18):
screw worm and the closure ofyes, of the US-Mexico border.
I will tell you that Trump toldUSDA secretary Brooke Rollins,
he wants that border opened.
Now, Rollins is nobody's fool.
Uh, she wants to make sure thatthings are in place, such as
(16:39):
analysis, such as is Mexicofulfilling their terms, such as
working with Mexico to make suretheir their increase in the
number of flies to ward off thescrewworm are in place.
And but she wants economicanalysis too.
I my best sources that I haveover five decades of covering
(17:02):
USDA and the White House tell methat they're gearing up for a
January possible reopening ofthe border, but it would be
phased in with the Arizona firstand other states and other areas
following through.
And in fact, that's what they'vedone before, Tommy.
(17:23):
So you know, uh the the impact,I think we have a uh a bullet as
far as what they're looking aton the impacts of this uh of any
reopening the border that Ithink is just a matter of time.
The analysis shows that the U.S.
took it took one million headout of that pipeline.
(17:45):
Now, that's ultimately onebillion pounds of beef or more
due to the screw worm, andthat's contributed significantly
to prices increasing.
Trump knows that now.
He's been told the analysis.
So, you know, a phased reopeningwould eventually bring uh some
of that new supply back onlinewith a commensurate price
(18:06):
effect.
I'll tell you, the traders, uhlivestock trade, cattle traders
are telling me just get overthat, get get it announced one
way or the other so we can go onto other things.
That that's what I'm hearingfrom the majority.
But the border to me is going tobe reopened.
We don't know for sure when.
All I hear from Washington isthey're shooting for a January
(18:28):
reopening, a phased, a phased-inreopening with the consequences
that you're showing.
You want to bring in cattle,they have a lot of cattle to
bring in.
SPEAKER_02 (18:37):
And Jim, the markets are reacting.
That first chart, sir is uhfeeder cattle chart.
Red line is the hundred-daymoving average, folks, and the
blue line is the 200.
Anyone who knows trading knowsthat uh we have support and
resistance.
We blew through the hundred.
We still have a lot of gaps tofill.
I know if you're listening tothis on podcast forum, feel free
to go watch this video, butthere's some gaps.
(18:59):
And as you know, Jim, when youhave these gaps, markets like to
go film.
There's a it'd be I'm lookingforward to recording with you in
months to come to see what gaps,if any, we fill.
And that's a feeder.
This is a live now.
The markets uh were closed uponthat true social tweet of
President Trump and the livecattle.
(19:19):
This is the most activecontract, closed right on the
200-day moving average.
I felt like that was a powerfuluh true social, and that wasn't
against the ranchers now.
Let's just post that tweet onemore time.
Yeah, I'm asking the Departmentof Justice to immediately begin.
That sounds like strong talk.
That's more than pick up yoursocks and underwear in your
(19:41):
bedroom.
That's like, you know, this isserious.
SPEAKER_01 (19:43):
This is an that's more of a popular.
See, that's where Trump is apopulist, it's not necessarily a
conservative Republican, believeit or not.
That's more of the populist typeof a an approach.
It's something you would hearfrom Elizabeth Warren, who's
always against the Packers,things like that.
And that's Trump when it when itcomes to potential involvement
(20:05):
of some uh portions of the youknow the beef industry.
And then it's got that foreignovertone that you saw in there.
But uh, I I personally I don'tthink you can say those things
without proof, but that's Trump.
That's Trump.
Yeah.
Oh, and then we add into it thateventually Brazil's president
Lula is uh he may even come tothe United States to try to
(20:29):
convince uh Trump to lift thatadditional 40% tariff on US uh
on Brazilian beef, and thatwould bring in obviously more
hamburger because the Brazilianuh beef would you know come in
uh eventually.
Oh, absolutely.
Right, and I'm just hoping forcoffee because I I drink a lot
(20:49):
of coffee and I don't I stilldon't understand why we didn't
put a waiver on Brazilian coffeebecause they put a waiver on
orange juice, but not coffee.
So there's a lot of illogic.
Someone asked me before, I don'tunderstand that policy.
I said, Well, that's what that'sthe definition of Washington.
(21:10):
You you you don't understand it,you just got to go with it.
SPEAKER_02 (21:14):
And I will tell you from the trading standpoint,
large cattle traders I know havea coffee ladder, you know, a
ticket right next to the cattle,because if there is news out of
Brazil, coffee prices justrecently hit a record high.
That's what traders do, theylook for correlations.
Absolutely.
There was news today that uhwe'll get to it about the EPA.
I was watching soybean oil, Iwas watching canola futures, I
(21:37):
was watching soybeans, andthat's what traders do, and
these markets react instantly.
SPEAKER_01 (21:42):
Speaking of marketing, yeah, because you
asked me early this morning whyis soybean oil prices down, and
I said it could be.
We'll get to it, what EPAeventually announced relative to
the SREs, but we'll get to thatlater.
Crop production and WASDIreports are coming back next
Friday, November the 14th.
Now, we're going and they've gotthe crop surveys.
(22:04):
People have been out there, sothis will be the estimate of
corn, soybeans, major crops asof November 1.
Uh, so we'll get uh finallyupdated information.
Some people have asked me, well,why did they all of a sudden
come back?
This was farm service agencyoriented, uh, Tommy.
I was told, because they needthat information for some farm
(22:26):
programs.
The milk production reports arecoming back because of the dairy
program that you need thatinformation for some farm
programs.
So this report's going to comeout.
It'll be interesting to see thepre-report estimates or
forecast.
We had the two big Stonex and SPGlobal come out this week
(22:48):
without much change in thecorner soybean estimates, where
you've had all sorts of reportsin the general ag media about
the disease problems in corn.
So it'll be curious to see thatpre-report uh estimate forecast
next week.
But this is not the only thingthat USDA is going to do.
(23:08):
We're going to have the supplyand demand estimates.
The demand is going to becurious for two reasons, I
think.
Brazil.
Many people are telling meBrazil's soybean crop, their old
crop, not the new crop, not thecrop going in, is still too low
by three to five million metrictons.
That'll put more pressure on theon the bean market, in my
(23:29):
judgment.
And the second one is now thatwe have an announced 12 million
metric tons of soybeans to Chinafor the rest of this year and 25
million for the next three yearson a calendar year basis.
How will USDA plug that intotheir balance sheets?
(23:51):
We're going to see whether ornot there's an increase in
soybean exports in the in theWASDI report next week.
Nash will, I mean, not Nash, theWorld Board will probably have a
box on that report uh indicatinghow they handled that situation.
(24:11):
So we're going to have to lookclosely at that paragraph.
SPEAKER_02 (24:15):
Yeah, unbelievable.
Let's take a little break herefor uh station identification.
If you're enjoying the show,hey, head over to our new
website, www.agbull.com.
Wiesmeyer show is uh free.
Compliments to Mr.
Wiesmeyer working so hardputting out this great content.
We have his own column overthere.
You can go over Agbol Intel andyou can see breaking news and
(24:37):
all his writings there on the uhAgBull Intel.
That is free.
But if you enjoy content, texton breaking news, we got the
premium service$25 a month,$250annually.
I think that's a fair price forpeople to get as much
information.
We have some Nesvik researchcoming out.
We have all types of goodies.
Now, with that, how do you get ahold of the one and only Mr.
Wiesmeyer?
He's an easy guy to get a holdof.
(24:58):
Right there.
Sign up for Jim's newsletter,Wiesmeyer at gmail.com.
Now back to the show.
All right.
We are about two-thirds of theway through, and this is where
it gets really interesting.
SCOTUS.
SPEAKER_01 (25:14):
The Supreme Court of the United States had a November
5th hearing, initial hearing onthe Trump tariffs.
Now, most of the reports thatlisteners or viewers probably
saw was that the tone of thejustices' questioning and
comments signaled that theywould likely vote negative
(25:35):
relative to Trump's tariffs.
In other words, he would nothave the ability to do what he
announced in a major way.
I think that that's premature.
You cannot, there's nocorrelation between those
hearings, at least, and that youcan accurately predict what a
SCOTUS ruling is going to be.
And we're probably going to getit either late December or early
(25:59):
in 2026.
But even if Trump were to losethat, he has a pulpourie of
other programs, Tommy, that hecan use.
They won't be as easy as theirexisting emergency declaration
of the use of these tariffs.
But it is an important decision.
Now, as a backstop, U.S.
(26:21):
trade rep Jameson Greer came outyesterday and said that, yeah,
they have they're looking into asituation where if they were to
lose that case, the Trumpadministration, of how much and
and who would get refunds ofthose billions of dollars in
tariffs that they've alreadygenerated.
(26:43):
But he was quick to point outthat he still thinks that the
Trump administration will winthat case in the Supreme Court.
So there you have it.
The betting markets are, Ithink, a little above 50% that
Trump will lose it.
But I'm starting to look atthose betting markets, Tommy,
because they were they were moreaccurate on these uh Tuesday
(27:06):
elections than the politicalpolls were, by the way.
SPEAKER_02 (27:09):
Yeah, they're and uh we could talk about on a
different show, but thesebetting markets are starting to
be a lot more respected, they'restarting to become regulated.
I don't want to misspeak, but Ido I want to get my facts
straight on how they'reregulated by the CFTC, and I
don't want to talk about ittoday without having uh sure
proper stuff.
But this is a fact this did comeout today, EPA SRE, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (27:30):
Yeah, at 10 o'clock Eastern time, we got the word
earlier in the morning that EPAwas going to announce the SREs.
And I think we have a bulletsaying what they announced.
And initially it wasn't good forthe soybean oil market because
I'd have to go back.
I think we had a a I'd have togo back.
(27:52):
Oh, there it is, there it is,there it is.
SPEAKER_02 (27:53):
Thanks, Joe.
SPEAKER_01 (27:54):
Full ex full exemptions were granted for two
petitions, one for 2023 and onefor 2024.
50 were granted for 12, four for21, two for 2022, and four for
2023.
Though though that thoseportions were negative to
soybean oil because the biofuelsgroups, pro ethanol groups, came
(28:16):
out and said, you're hurting thecorn market on that one.
And they had two for 2024, andtwo petitions were denied, one
each for 23 and 24.
But at least we have those.
There are just a few remaining.
I think there's five remainingthat they have to go through.
But at least we know that onenow, Tommy.
(28:36):
And that was initially negativeas as far as the soybean oil.
SPEAKER_02 (28:40):
I gotta ask you a silly question.
What what determines who getsapproved, who doesn't get
approved?
Who how's this work?
SPEAKER_01 (28:47):
Kind of a black box within the EPA, probably.
Yeah, they go through, they haveI hopefully they have a formula
and things like that, but thatit's an internal decision.
SPEAKER_02 (28:58):
And I do have the chart of uh soybean oil.
We've been going pretty tightrange in between the uh hundred
and two hundred day for quite awhile, Jim.
SPEAKER_00 (29:06):
Yeah, okay.
SPEAKER_02 (29:08):
All right, moving along here on the banners.
Here we have we got throughthat.
This is a big deal.
This is what all this fightingkind of started about.
SPEAKER_01 (29:15):
Actually, it it was it's a longer term deal, but I'm
not gonna say it's a negativebecause the addition of
phosphate and potash to thecritical minerals list will give
you investment money, okay?
Uh, because they get various taxincentives and things like that
to maybe increase the productioninto the US.
(29:38):
But from they tell me forfarmers it's it's more of a
muted impact because, as youwell know, potash and and and
phosphate prices, they're mainlyprimarily influenced by uh
global production, uh, Canada,Mexico.
I mean, I should have saidCanada, Morocco, and Russia.
(29:59):
They they did.
Determine the prices short term.
But longer term, this is goodbecause it it puts those those
key fertilizer materials intothe critical minerals market
that gives the signal to themarketplace hey, if you want to
increase production, now you geta tax incentive.
And we know that fertilizerplants are not cheap to build.
(30:20):
So they they need thatinvestment help.
SPEAKER_02 (30:24):
Lots of lots of moving parts here.
This is wild how this show cametogether today with all the news
here.
A little earlier news in theweek would be uh the election,
and I don't think it turned outwell for the Republicans.
This is a little bit of awake-up call.
SPEAKER_01 (30:37):
A bloodbath.
It was not good at all.
There are some people, the CookPolitical Report with Amy Walter
had a story this morning thatsaid this is a potential uh blue
wave.
I think that was a bit of anexaggeration and in my point uh
and from from what I could tell.
I'm trying to find out here toget you back on my uh list here.
(31:01):
You may have to read it becauseI've lost you.
Hold on.
SPEAKER_02 (31:04):
Let's oh, on the uh Tuesday election.
SPEAKER_01 (31:07):
Yeah, on uh yeah.
This is the quote that I wantyou to read, Tommy, because I
want me to read it?
I can see it in your down belowis the best election guru that I
have, and this is what he sentme on his analysis of what
happened Tuesday.
SPEAKER_02 (31:25):
You want me to read it?
Yes.
Okay.
On the outcome of Tuesday'selection, the argument that the
Democrats predictably won inDemocratic states, and that this
is not necessarily Harbinger forthe next year's midterm
elections.
It is not without merit, but themore compelling argument is that
the people are discontent,particularly over the economy
(31:48):
and rising cost of living, whichwe're talking about a lot on
today's show.
Just as people had thought theywere voting in 2020 to put a to
put a moderate Democratpresident in office to calm the
waters, people thought they werevoting in 2024, 2024, and had
prior to put a Republicanpresident in office who would
(32:08):
make the good times roll again,just as they had in prior
events.
So I think what he's saying hereis we keep having a flip-flop.
Oh, put this person in, they'llfix it, put this person in,
they'll fix it prior to theevents of 2020.
The tariffs, even for Americanswho recognize that the balance
of trade must be addressed, theice rates, and even for
(32:29):
Americans who believe that theborders must be enforced and
that the government shutdownonly add to anxiety.
And since Republicans controlall of our government, at least
according to the polls, thatthey are receiving the brunt of
voters' displeasure.
Congressional Democrats knowthis, hence doubling down.
SPEAKER_01 (32:50):
How they do, then they're doubling down, and they
won by big margins in New Jerseyand now my home state of
Virginia.
I mean, it was it was bad.
Now, the key word that theDemocrats are using,
affordability.
And Republicans now, you'regonna hear them say that word.
And and you see, Trump is outthere.
(33:10):
Trump chastised his Republicanmembers in Congress that went
for elections and say, youdidn't talk the marketplace, you
didn't talk about what we'redoing to lower the prices.
And then he mentioned the energyprices.
Now he didn't mention electricprices, they're they're gone up.
So I think you're gonna see arevision here of how the
(33:33):
Republicans gear up for themidterm 2026 elections.
History tells me that theserecent elections will give no
signal to what's gonna happen inmidterm elections, despite what
the Cook political report withAmy Walter says.
I just don't buy it.
I think that the Republicans, ifthey can get their act together,
(33:54):
and that's a big question, Mark,if this the interest rates
continue to go down and if theeconomy picks up.
But as we began the show sayingthis uh shutdown is gonna
probably cause the grossdomestic product, GDP, which
equals the economy, to be cut inhalf for the current quarter
we're in.
(34:15):
So that that's a big hurdle tohave to go through.
So, bottom line, uh, bothpolitical parties are gonna have
to fight amongst themselves asfar as the affordability angle.
SPEAKER_02 (34:27):
Unbelievable.
Well, here's someone who won'tbe fighting in Congress anymore.
And what a career! Andhonorably, uh, this is someone
who made it in Washington as awoman, and that there's a lot to
be said for that, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (34:38):
Oh, absolutely.
38 years she was in in power inin Washington.
And I remember as a beatreporter covering her, and she
was born and raised inBaltimore, Maryland, by the way.
And her father, her father wasthe mayor of Baltimore, and she
took it she would tell the storyhow she kept the books of favors
(35:00):
for her father.
So when somebody came to thedoor asking for a favor, she
looked up and see what you knowwhat did they do to help her
father get re-elected.
So she she learned early onpower politics.
And in an in a DC, which isstill a borderline sexist, she's
a woman who made it to apowerful office.
(35:22):
So I tip my hat off to her forthat.
Uh she was a formidablecompetitor.
SPEAKER_02 (35:27):
Nancy Pelosi retiring at 84.
SPEAKER_01 (35:31):
Yes.
SPEAKER_02 (35:31):
With that, all right, let's get to the end of
the show, and then we'll let youfinish it on the uh positive
note.
We do really have some positiveshere today.
SPEAKER_01 (35:39):
Uh food stamps.
Yeah, well, we're it looks likewe're heading to full benefits,
at least this court challengedirecting USDA to go 100%, find
money somehow, somehow, withinUSDA.
And as we've said before,there's billions floating around
here or there.
What whatever.
Now, the administration hasappealed it, so they could win
an appeal, but uh at least we'vegot uh 65% of the November food
(36:06):
stamp payments uh you know goingout.
And as far as the needy people,I think that's a good thing.
SPEAKER_02 (36:13):
I I agree with you.
This is uh really creating uhtrouble for people.
Okay, folks, if you like thisshow, you got Mr.
Wiesmeyer's email down there,Wiesmeyer at Gmail.
I always let Jim finish on apositive note.
And I don't know why there'd beany reason to not finish on a
positive note.
This is America, it's the bestcountry in the world.
We've had lots of breaking news.
Even upon filming on this, Iknow how I would finish the
(36:36):
show, but it's not my show.
It's Wiesmeyer's perspectives.
How would you like to close theshow, sir?
SPEAKER_01 (36:41):
Well, at least we have information coming out next
Friday on the size of the U.S.
corn and soybean crops, on thedemand cycle we're gonna see, as
we talked about before.
We're going to see on November10th, Monday, whether or not uh
China gives a waiver to that 10%tariff on U.S.
soybeans.
(37:02):
And if so, that's very good newsbecause it makes uh U.S.
soybeans quite competitive.
On the meat side, we've got towatch policy, Tommy, because of
what we we uh you know, wementioned what Trump said in his
True Social thing, as far aschallenging the packers and the
companies they're in.
(37:23):
And then on the cattle side, wealso have to watch the screw
worm development and theeventual reopening.
As far as the government, Ithink reason will eventually
prevail.
I just don't know how they'regoing to get this country, at
least the U.S.
government, uh, you know, youknow, back to work.
But as you saw intramarket todayin the equities market, when
(37:45):
they thought that the that therewas a solution to this, you saw
the equity market shoot up froma 500 downturn initially, as you
said, in the NASDAQ in themorning uh to only down 100 or
so.
I don't know how they ended uhdown 50 in the Nasdaq.
Wow.
See that that shows you therethey must sense well it is at
(38:08):
least they're talking, andthat's a good thing.
So that that's where we're at.
If you want to add somepositives, come you know, you
you know, come at it.
SPEAKER_02 (38:17):
I think the positive is that this country's free, and
that the fact that you and I getto do this every week is really
awesome.
Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer coming to you fromWashington, D.C.
Time Grassafi, I'm at NesvicTrading here in Nashville.
Everyone, thanks for watching.
Please click like and subscribe.
Tell a friend about this.
This video is free and open tothe public.
Have a great week, everyone.
Welcome to the AGBO podcast.
Welcome to EggBow Media, AGBOTrading.
I'm here in Nashville, Tennesseeat Nasvik Trading Group, and my
head's still spinning.
I'm spinning.
I'm glad I don't have to talkmuch through this show.
We just had some breaking news,and we're really excited to tell
you about it.
Now, with that, I got to givethis guy the introduction he
deserves to.
(00:54):
Let's just hit it, brother.
Happy Friday.
SPEAKER_00 (00:57):
A lot to go through.
SPEAKER_02 (00:58):
Yes, sir.
All right.
We're still shut down.
Shut down continues, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (01:03):
Yeah, and it's going to affect me now because I
travel both Monday and Wednesdayon an airplane, and hopefully
they'll have a solution thisweekend, but don't hold your
breath on that because we havesome breaking news.
Uh Chuck Schumer, who's theminority leader in the Senate,
told the Republicans theyoffered they would come back and
(01:25):
vote to return the government ifthe Republicans would go along
with the one-year extension ofthe Obamacare subsidies.
That's the Affordable Care Act.
It didn't take a nanosecond forthe Republicans to reject that
offer.
So there we are now.
(01:46):
Now, what I would suggest is wehave to see whether Senator John
Thune, he's the Senate majorityleader, Republican from South
Dakota, John Thune.
Yes, whether or not he keeps theSenate working this weekend.
If he does, there's still achance that they can work out a
(02:07):
compromise.
If he sends them home, it couldbe another week or two before we
get a solution to this, whateverit will be, Tommy.
But uh both ends and stuff.
SPEAKER_02 (02:20):
Come on.
SPEAKER_01 (02:20):
We'll get into the elections later that happened
Tuesday, but it went very wellfor the Democrats.
And so that's made them dig ineven more to get what they want.
They want to extract a favor, inthis case, the Obamacare
subsidies.
But the Republicans are notgoing to go along.
(02:43):
And Trump is involved on thisbecause he wants to do away with
the Senate filibuster.
Now, the Senate filibuster is onmost legislation, not all, uh
Supreme Court justices onlyneeds a majority vote now.
But Trump wants them to waive orto do away with the filibuster.
Now that's significant, whereThune and others in the
(03:06):
Republican Party in the Senatedon't want to do that because
they know the Democrats willeventually come back in control
of the Senate chamber and coulddo all sorts of stuff, like
adding two states, Puerto Rico,DC.
They could uh increase thenumber of Supreme Court
justices, they could make allillegal immigrants uh legal, and
(03:27):
that would make Texas ademocratic state, things like
that.
So they don't want that.
So I I told a couple people onthe Hill they should just
partial waiver the filibusterfor the government shutdown.
So I don't know whether thatwould be that means that well,
you could write legislation thatonly needs a majority vote in
(03:47):
the Senate, by the way, thatthey could say a government
shutdown lasting more than Xdays, pick a day, 20, 30, or 38
days.
We're in the 38th day.
The uh the it would say thatCongress, uh it would say the
U.S.
government is reopened, youknow, pending further
appropriation debates.
(04:09):
But I don't know whether they'llgo that way or not, because
they're both at loggerheads, andnow we're seeing substantial
impacts uh starting to occur inthe airline industry for sure.
But you've got the FAA saying uh10% beginning today of flights
are going to be curtailed at 40major U.S.
(04:30):
airports, and in my case, it'sboth Washington National, Reagan
National, and Dulles Airport iswhat I use.
And I think you had 1,200 eitherdelayed or canceled flights
today alone.
And so here we go.
And it's affecting the economybecause National Economic
(04:50):
Council director Kevin Hassetton uh Fox Business yesterday, I
think oh no, that was thismorning, said that it could
reduce the U.S.
economy in the current quarterby 50% or more.
So it's having an impact uh onbusiness practices.
SPEAKER_02 (05:12):
And with that, what we're filming this right at
three o'clock central time, andthe stock market's closing, the
Dows up like 50, and the NasdaqDows up 60, and the Nasdaq's
only down 50.
Full disclosure, folks, theNASDAQ was down 500 earlier
today.
Hey, I have a question.
This might be for a later partof the show, but what about
people depending on this?
42 million Americans.
(05:33):
Are they getting what are theydoing?
SPEAKER_01 (05:35):
Well, they're starting uh the the recipients
are starting to get due to courtaction additional uh you know
funding of that, 65 percent ofwhat they normally get.
Now, the court ruled that USDAshould go to 100 level, but then
the the Trump administrationappealed that in a court request
(05:57):
this morning.
So that's still tied up in ininto the courts.
But this is all the emotion,emotionality of it, because
that's not good signal when youhave uh the over 40 million
people get food stamps and whenthey're cut off, that that's
that's bad.
SPEAKER_02 (06:16):
Yeah, and I I think the stock market's calling BS on
everything because the SP 500just closed green, Dow Green,
and the NASDAQ.
If uh given another two minutes,if it could open, still be open,
it would be green.
And there could be some reasonsto that, and I'll go with this
next headline.
We do have some form of a Chinatrade deal, correct?
SPEAKER_01 (06:34):
Yes, and remember last week when I ended it on an
upbeat move mood, watch this.
Now, we've got a lot ofnaysayers out this in the in the
ag sector because they want tosee China uh announce the same
thing that the US did relativeto the soybean amounts.
But the trade agreement clearlysays China has committed to
(06:57):
purchase 12 million metric tonsof soybeans between now and the
end of December, and 25 millionmetric tons of soybeans for
calendar years, 26, 27, and 28.
The problem, as we show in thisgraphic, the US is not
competitive in soybeans rightnow to Brazil, because uh
(07:19):
Brazil's uh import uh tariffstotal, including the VAT, with
both countries uh the uh youknow pay the value uh added tax,
that's VAT of 13.
But Brazil's import tariff isthree percent versus the United
States 13 percent.
So that's the equivalent of uh44 a metric ton or dollar forty
(07:47):
a uh dollar twenty a bushel.
That's big.
That's big.
So so what what the what thismeans now, and like you know, in
this chart again, which I alwayscome back to, look at Brazil's
production ever since the firstTrump administration's trade war
with China.
Look how much they've increasedrelative to the U.S.
(08:09):
and even Argentina.
They're a force to be reckonedwith.
We have to get the U.S.
soybean price competitive.
Now, either that 10% tariff as aresult of the fentanyl tariff
that still remains, and that'swhat China put on us.
Now, either that has to comeoff, or China has to offer
(08:30):
waivers to the Chinese buyers,whether or not they're state
trading companies or the privatesector buying for China.
Uh that's that's still to bedetermined.
We're we may know more Novemberthe 10th.
That's Monday, because that'swhen these take effect at one
o'clock Eastern Time, midnightChina time, okay, one o'clock
(08:55):
p.m.
Eastern time, and we're gonnasee some of these policies go
into effect, Tommy.
But many, some more than a fewpeople in the U.S.
ag trade, analysts or traders, Idon't know whether they're
talking their position or not,they've uh then been very jaded.
They're saying, uh, they don'tthink China's gonna commit to
(09:16):
the, you know, commit or followthrough on this because they
really didn't follow through allthat much in the phase one
agreement under Trump's firstadministration.
But I say it's thecompetitiveness nature of that
price.
But we're early in the Trumpadministration's 2.0.
And if they don't fulfill theircommitment, then Trump could put
(09:39):
on tariffs later on, and thenwe're back into the soup all
over again.
But bottom line, this is earlyin the ball game.
We have to see whether or notChina's gonna uh initiate a
waiver, or we're gonna have tosee if that 10% tariff, if Trump
were to announce China'sfulfilling and being very
aggressive in helping us stopfentanyl coming into the United
(10:04):
States and their products thatmake it.
And if he lifts that 10% tariffthat remains on fentanyl on
China, the Chinese then wouldlift that 10% tariff on U.S.
soybeans and bingo, U.S.
soybean prices are competitive.
SPEAKER_02 (10:22):
Okay.
And on a morning meeting thismorning at Nasvic Trading Group,
our friend Dan Bossi from AgResource.
I think you've been at speakingengagements with Mr.
Uh D.
SPEAKER_00 (10:31):
Oh, yeah, know him.
SPEAKER_02 (10:32):
Yeah, and uh he joins our morning call and he
said, Listen, folks, China's atrader.
If Brazil's cheaper thanAmerica, they're buying Brazil,
regardless of what they saidthey're gonna do, they go buy
the cheapest soybeans in theworld.
That's just business.
SPEAKER_01 (10:46):
Can't blame them.
SPEAKER_02 (10:46):
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_01 (10:47):
And that's what they have that clause in the uh phase
phase one agreement.
And I know Dan, I don't knowwhether he told you that he and
some others think that China gotsome initial coverage in the
market by by the futures market,either soybeans or some people
say it, even maybe meal, youknow, soybean meal.
And I've got an email saying,well, if that's true, if it is
(11:09):
true, then what happens whenthey actually buy the physical
commodity?
Is that bullish or bearish?
Well, Tommy, you're the you'rethe trader.
I would think that would bebearish when they have to
offset, right?
SPEAKER_02 (11:21):
If they if they went long, yeah, we have had some big
down days here in meal thisweek.
We you'd come in at night andyou're like, wow, meal's down a
bunch.
We had that down 30 day inbeans, but we've had some nice
recoveries also.
Jim, you posted this next chartreal quick, and uh it's very
similar to the first green boxchart, but this is that's the
pork that tells me look at lookat the difference between the
(11:43):
U.S.
SPEAKER_01 (11:44):
tariff rate on pork and other countries.
We're we're still at look at theright hand side, the total
applied tariff rate is 47percent.
You know, we're not gonna sellmuch for U.S.
pork to China because unlikesome other commodities, China
put on a 25% tariff on U.S.
(12:07):
pork as a result of those steeland aluminum tariffs uh under
section 232 that that Trump puton them.
So I give a lot of pork industryspeeches, and I wish I had
better news for them, but boy,that's an albatross to go
through 47% tariff.
SPEAKER_02 (12:24):
Uh speaking of pork here on the futures market, it
was just a few weeks ago porkwas going up, up.
My hog producers were makingmargin calls, and uh pork has
had a big, big down move here.
The it went from really lookinggood to it's pulled back.
We're all the focus and talk ison cattle, but hogs have had a
large pullback here the lastthree, four weeks, Jim.
(12:46):
So maybe we get cheap enough, wewill become uh competitive
there.
I it's like you don't want theprice to go down so much, we
become no competitive.
Next headline, sir, speed roundno tenth loom large loom.
SPEAKER_01 (12:57):
Well, that's the November.
When we come into the office onMonday, I'll be gone.
I'll be in hopefully I'll be inin Charlotte uh talking to the
fertilizer institute.
But that's when the actualagreements between Trump and Xi
Jinping take effect about oneo'clock Eastern time.
And so now we're gonna seewhether or not there's some
(13:18):
follow-through on some otherpurchases, not just beans, but
wheat and sorghum.
We had some smaller amounts thisweek that were confirmed, and
maybe some other things.
And I will tell you, I'm gonnago up to my notes here because
remember that fair that wetalked about last week of that
China fair in Shanghai?
(13:39):
Well, one Chinese firm signedcontracts to import$5.2 billion
in soybeans, corn, cotton, andother agricultural products,
although the country of originis still not confirmed.
Now, that's that's Reuters onthat one.
But you know, then at the fair,I also saw a translation that a
(14:01):
Chinese official pushed forcooperation between Chinese and
overseas firms to buildprocessing facilities and
logistics hubs abroad to quotein ensure a stable, secure, and
resilient global ag industrychain.
Now that's interesting.
That's something I'm going topursue as the weeks and months
(14:23):
go on.
But they're showing commitmentshere of purchasing a chunk of uh
agricultural commodities.
Let's hope it's uh US products.
SPEAKER_02 (14:34):
I think we're getting to the breaking news
part.
This is uh a multifaceted uhpop-up here because upon well,
stage is yours.
SPEAKER_01 (14:42):
Well, we get we have the breaking news where Trump
wants more supply of beef and hewants lower prices.
He keeps saying that.
Uh he's a broken record now, andhe's not gonna stop.
Now, the breaking news, do wehave the uh true social quote?
SPEAKER_02 (14:58):
Yeah, I gotta play the uh breaking news reel.
I get full disclosure credit forthat beeping sound.
This just came out minutes ago.
SPEAKER_01 (15:12):
He's asked the Department of Justice to
immediately that begins now,begin an investigation into the
meat packing companies.
I would say anotherinvestigation over the years,
who are driving up the price ofbeef through illicit collusion.
This is Trump, price fixing andprice manipulation.
Uh, you know, you got to proveit first before you say it.
(15:33):
We will always protect ourAmerican ranchers, and they are
being blamed for what is beingdone by majority foreign-owned
meat packers who artificiallyinflate prices and jeopardize
the security of our nation'sfood supply.
Action must be taken immediatelyto protect consumers, combat
illegal monopolies, and ensurethese corporations are not
(15:56):
criminally profiting at theexpense of the American people.
I'm asking the Department ofJustice to act expeditiously.
Thank you for your attention tothis matter.
That's Trump word for word.
He is he's not stopping on onwanting beef prices to go down.
That brings us into thefollow-up story on this is the
(16:18):
screw worm and the closure ofyes, of the US-Mexico border.
I will tell you that Trump toldUSDA secretary Brooke Rollins,
he wants that border opened.
Now, Rollins is nobody's fool.
Uh, she wants to make sure thatthings are in place, such as
(16:39):
analysis, such as is Mexicofulfilling their terms, such as
working with Mexico to make suretheir their increase in the
number of flies to ward off thescrewworm are in place.
And but she wants economicanalysis too.
I my best sources that I haveover five decades of covering
(17:02):
USDA and the White House tell methat they're gearing up for a
January possible reopening ofthe border, but it would be
phased in with the Arizona firstand other states and other areas
following through.
And in fact, that's what they'vedone before, Tommy.
(17:23):
So you know, uh the the impact,I think we have a uh a bullet as
far as what they're looking aton the impacts of this uh of any
reopening the border that Ithink is just a matter of time.
The analysis shows that the U.S.
took it took one million headout of that pipeline.
(17:45):
Now, that's ultimately onebillion pounds of beef or more
due to the screw worm, andthat's contributed significantly
to prices increasing.
Trump knows that now.
He's been told the analysis.
So, you know, a phased reopeningwould eventually bring uh some
of that new supply back onlinewith a commensurate price
(18:06):
effect.
I'll tell you, the traders, uhlivestock trade, cattle traders
are telling me just get overthat, get get it announced one
way or the other so we can go onto other things.
That that's what I'm hearingfrom the majority.
But the border to me is going tobe reopened.
We don't know for sure when.
All I hear from Washington isthey're shooting for a January
(18:28):
reopening, a phased, a phased-inreopening with the consequences
that you're showing.
You want to bring in cattle,they have a lot of cattle to
bring in.
SPEAKER_02 (18:37):
And Jim, the markets are reacting.
That first chart, sir is uhfeeder cattle chart.
Red line is the hundred-daymoving average, folks, and the
blue line is the 200.
Anyone who knows trading knowsthat uh we have support and
resistance.
We blew through the hundred.
We still have a lot of gaps tofill.
I know if you're listening tothis on podcast forum, feel free
to go watch this video, butthere's some gaps.
(18:59):
And as you know, Jim, when youhave these gaps, markets like to
go film.
There's a it'd be I'm lookingforward to recording with you in
months to come to see what gaps,if any, we fill.
And that's a feeder.
This is a live now.
The markets uh were closed uponthat true social tweet of
President Trump and the livecattle.
(19:19):
This is the most activecontract, closed right on the
200-day moving average.
I felt like that was a powerfuluh true social, and that wasn't
against the ranchers now.
Let's just post that tweet onemore time.
Yeah, I'm asking the Departmentof Justice to immediately begin.
That sounds like strong talk.
That's more than pick up yoursocks and underwear in your
(19:41):
bedroom.
That's like, you know, this isserious.
SPEAKER_01 (19:43):
This is an that's more of a popular.
See, that's where Trump is apopulist, it's not necessarily a
conservative Republican, believeit or not.
That's more of the populist typeof a an approach.
It's something you would hearfrom Elizabeth Warren, who's
always against the Packers,things like that.
And that's Trump when it when itcomes to potential involvement
(20:05):
of some uh portions of the youknow the beef industry.
And then it's got that foreignovertone that you saw in there.
But uh, I I personally I don'tthink you can say those things
without proof, but that's Trump.
That's Trump.
Yeah.
Oh, and then we add into it thateventually Brazil's president
Lula is uh he may even come tothe United States to try to
(20:29):
convince uh Trump to lift thatadditional 40% tariff on US uh
on Brazilian beef, and thatwould bring in obviously more
hamburger because the Brazilianuh beef would you know come in
uh eventually.
Oh, absolutely.
Right, and I'm just hoping forcoffee because I I drink a lot
(20:49):
of coffee and I don't I stilldon't understand why we didn't
put a waiver on Brazilian coffeebecause they put a waiver on
orange juice, but not coffee.
So there's a lot of illogic.
Someone asked me before, I don'tunderstand that policy.
I said, Well, that's what that'sthe definition of Washington.
(21:10):
You you you don't understand it,you just got to go with it.
SPEAKER_02 (21:14):
And I will tell you from the trading standpoint,
large cattle traders I know havea coffee ladder, you know, a
ticket right next to the cattle,because if there is news out of
Brazil, coffee prices justrecently hit a record high.
That's what traders do, theylook for correlations.
Absolutely.
There was news today that uhwe'll get to it about the EPA.
I was watching soybean oil, Iwas watching canola futures, I
(21:37):
was watching soybeans, andthat's what traders do, and
these markets react instantly.
SPEAKER_01 (21:42):
Speaking of marketing, yeah, because you
asked me early this morning whyis soybean oil prices down, and
I said it could be.
We'll get to it, what EPAeventually announced relative to
the SREs, but we'll get to thatlater.
Crop production and WASDIreports are coming back next
Friday, November the 14th.
Now, we're going and they've gotthe crop surveys.
(22:04):
People have been out there, sothis will be the estimate of
corn, soybeans, major crops asof November 1.
Uh, so we'll get uh finallyupdated information.
Some people have asked me, well,why did they all of a sudden
come back?
This was farm service agencyoriented, uh, Tommy.
I was told, because they needthat information for some farm
(22:26):
programs.
The milk production reports arecoming back because of the dairy
program that you need thatinformation for some farm
programs.
So this report's going to comeout.
It'll be interesting to see thepre-report estimates or
forecast.
We had the two big Stonex and SPGlobal come out this week
(22:48):
without much change in thecorner soybean estimates, where
you've had all sorts of reportsin the general ag media about
the disease problems in corn.
So it'll be curious to see thatpre-report uh estimate forecast
next week.
But this is not the only thingthat USDA is going to do.
(23:08):
We're going to have the supplyand demand estimates.
The demand is going to becurious for two reasons, I
think.
Brazil.
Many people are telling meBrazil's soybean crop, their old
crop, not the new crop, not thecrop going in, is still too low
by three to five million metrictons.
That'll put more pressure on theon the bean market, in my
(23:29):
judgment.
And the second one is now thatwe have an announced 12 million
metric tons of soybeans to Chinafor the rest of this year and 25
million for the next three yearson a calendar year basis.
How will USDA plug that intotheir balance sheets?
(23:51):
We're going to see whether ornot there's an increase in
soybean exports in the in theWASDI report next week.
Nash will, I mean, not Nash, theWorld Board will probably have a
box on that report uh indicatinghow they handled that situation.
(24:11):
So we're going to have to lookclosely at that paragraph.
SPEAKER_02 (24:15):
Yeah, unbelievable.
Let's take a little break herefor uh station identification.
If you're enjoying the show,hey, head over to our new
website, www.agbull.com.
Wiesmeyer show is uh free.
Compliments to Mr.
Wiesmeyer working so hardputting out this great content.
We have his own column overthere.
You can go over Agbol Intel andyou can see breaking news and
(24:37):
all his writings there on the uhAgBull Intel.
That is free.
But if you enjoy content, texton breaking news, we got the
premium service$25 a month,$250annually.
I think that's a fair price forpeople to get as much
information.
We have some Nesvik researchcoming out.
We have all types of goodies.
Now, with that, how do you get ahold of the one and only Mr.
Wiesmeyer?
He's an easy guy to get a holdof.
(24:58):
Right there.
Sign up for Jim's newsletter,Wiesmeyer at gmail.com.
Now back to the show.
All right.
We are about two-thirds of theway through, and this is where
it gets really interesting.
SCOTUS.
SPEAKER_01 (25:14):
The Supreme Court of the United States had a November
5th hearing, initial hearing onthe Trump tariffs.
Now, most of the reports thatlisteners or viewers probably
saw was that the tone of thejustices' questioning and
comments signaled that theywould likely vote negative
(25:35):
relative to Trump's tariffs.
In other words, he would nothave the ability to do what he
announced in a major way.
I think that that's premature.
You cannot, there's nocorrelation between those
hearings, at least, and that youcan accurately predict what a
SCOTUS ruling is going to be.
And we're probably going to getit either late December or early
(25:59):
in 2026.
But even if Trump were to losethat, he has a pulpourie of
other programs, Tommy, that hecan use.
They won't be as easy as theirexisting emergency declaration
of the use of these tariffs.
But it is an important decision.
Now, as a backstop, U.S.
(26:21):
trade rep Jameson Greer came outyesterday and said that, yeah,
they have they're looking into asituation where if they were to
lose that case, the Trumpadministration, of how much and
and who would get refunds ofthose billions of dollars in
tariffs that they've alreadygenerated.
(26:43):
But he was quick to point outthat he still thinks that the
Trump administration will winthat case in the Supreme Court.
So there you have it.
The betting markets are, Ithink, a little above 50% that
Trump will lose it.
But I'm starting to look atthose betting markets, Tommy,
because they were they were moreaccurate on these uh Tuesday
(27:06):
elections than the politicalpolls were, by the way.
SPEAKER_02 (27:09):
Yeah, they're and uh we could talk about on a
different show, but thesebetting markets are starting to
be a lot more respected, they'restarting to become regulated.
I don't want to misspeak, but Ido I want to get my facts
straight on how they'reregulated by the CFTC, and I
don't want to talk about ittoday without having uh sure
proper stuff.
But this is a fact this did comeout today, EPA SRE, sir.
SPEAKER_01 (27:30):
Yeah, at 10 o'clock Eastern time, we got the word
earlier in the morning that EPAwas going to announce the SREs.
And I think we have a bulletsaying what they announced.
And initially it wasn't good forthe soybean oil market because
I'd have to go back.
I think we had a a I'd have togo back.
(27:52):
Oh, there it is, there it is,there it is.
SPEAKER_02 (27:53):
Thanks, Joe.
SPEAKER_01 (27:54):
Full ex full exemptions were granted for two
petitions, one for 2023 and onefor 2024.
50 were granted for 12, four for21, two for 2022, and four for
2023.
Though though that thoseportions were negative to
soybean oil because the biofuelsgroups, pro ethanol groups, came
(28:16):
out and said, you're hurting thecorn market on that one.
And they had two for 2024, andtwo petitions were denied, one
each for 23 and 24.
But at least we have those.
There are just a few remaining.
I think there's five remainingthat they have to go through.
But at least we know that onenow, Tommy.
(28:36):
And that was initially negativeas as far as the soybean oil.
SPEAKER_02 (28:40):
I gotta ask you a silly question.
What what determines who getsapproved, who doesn't get
approved?
Who how's this work?
SPEAKER_01 (28:47):
Kind of a black box within the EPA, probably.
Yeah, they go through, they haveI hopefully they have a formula
and things like that, but thatit's an internal decision.
SPEAKER_02 (28:58):
And I do have the chart of uh soybean oil.
We've been going pretty tightrange in between the uh hundred
and two hundred day for quite awhile, Jim.
SPEAKER_00 (29:06):
Yeah, okay.
SPEAKER_02 (29:08):
All right, moving along here on the banners.
Here we have we got throughthat.
This is a big deal.
This is what all this fightingkind of started about.
SPEAKER_01 (29:15):
Actually, it it was it's a longer term deal, but I'm
not gonna say it's a negativebecause the addition of
phosphate and potash to thecritical minerals list will give
you investment money, okay?
Uh, because they get various taxincentives and things like that
to maybe increase the productioninto the US.
(29:38):
But from they tell me forfarmers it's it's more of a
muted impact because, as youwell know, potash and and and
phosphate prices, they're mainlyprimarily influenced by uh
global production, uh, Canada,Mexico.
I mean, I should have saidCanada, Morocco, and Russia.
(29:59):
They they did.
Determine the prices short term.
But longer term, this is goodbecause it it puts those those
key fertilizer materials intothe critical minerals market
that gives the signal to themarketplace hey, if you want to
increase production, now you geta tax incentive.
And we know that fertilizerplants are not cheap to build.
(30:20):
So they they need thatinvestment help.
SPEAKER_02 (30:24):
Lots of lots of moving parts here.
This is wild how this show cametogether today with all the news
here.
A little earlier news in theweek would be uh the election,
and I don't think it turned outwell for the Republicans.
This is a little bit of awake-up call.
SPEAKER_01 (30:37):
A bloodbath.
It was not good at all.
There are some people, the CookPolitical Report with Amy Walter
had a story this morning thatsaid this is a potential uh blue
wave.
I think that was a bit of anexaggeration and in my point uh
and from from what I could tell.
I'm trying to find out here toget you back on my uh list here.
(31:01):
You may have to read it becauseI've lost you.
Hold on.
SPEAKER_02 (31:04):
Let's oh, on the uh Tuesday election.
SPEAKER_01 (31:07):
Yeah, on uh yeah.
This is the quote that I wantyou to read, Tommy, because I
want me to read it?
I can see it in your down belowis the best election guru that I
have, and this is what he sentme on his analysis of what
happened Tuesday.
SPEAKER_02 (31:25):
You want me to read it?
Yes.
Okay.
On the outcome of Tuesday'selection, the argument that the
Democrats predictably won inDemocratic states, and that this
is not necessarily Harbinger forthe next year's midterm
elections.
It is not without merit, but themore compelling argument is that
the people are discontent,particularly over the economy
(31:48):
and rising cost of living, whichwe're talking about a lot on
today's show.
Just as people had thought theywere voting in 2020 to put a to
put a moderate Democratpresident in office to calm the
waters, people thought they werevoting in 2024, 2024, and had
prior to put a Republicanpresident in office who would
(32:08):
make the good times roll again,just as they had in prior
events.
So I think what he's saying hereis we keep having a flip-flop.
Oh, put this person in, they'llfix it, put this person in,
they'll fix it prior to theevents of 2020.
The tariffs, even for Americanswho recognize that the balance
of trade must be addressed, theice rates, and even for
(32:29):
Americans who believe that theborders must be enforced and
that the government shutdownonly add to anxiety.
And since Republicans controlall of our government, at least
according to the polls, thatthey are receiving the brunt of
voters' displeasure.
Congressional Democrats knowthis, hence doubling down.
SPEAKER_01 (32:50):
How they do, then they're doubling down, and they
won by big margins in New Jerseyand now my home state of
Virginia.
I mean, it was it was bad.
Now, the key word that theDemocrats are using,
affordability.
And Republicans now, you'regonna hear them say that word.
And and you see, Trump is outthere.
(33:10):
Trump chastised his Republicanmembers in Congress that went
for elections and say, youdidn't talk the marketplace, you
didn't talk about what we'redoing to lower the prices.
And then he mentioned the energyprices.
Now he didn't mention electricprices, they're they're gone up.
So I think you're gonna see arevision here of how the
(33:33):
Republicans gear up for themidterm 2026 elections.
History tells me that theserecent elections will give no
signal to what's gonna happen inmidterm elections, despite what
the Cook political report withAmy Walter says.
I just don't buy it.
I think that the Republicans, ifthey can get their act together,
(33:54):
and that's a big question, Mark,if this the interest rates
continue to go down and if theeconomy picks up.
But as we began the show sayingthis uh shutdown is gonna
probably cause the grossdomestic product, GDP, which
equals the economy, to be cut inhalf for the current quarter
we're in.
(34:15):
So that that's a big hurdle tohave to go through.
So, bottom line, uh, bothpolitical parties are gonna have
to fight amongst themselves asfar as the affordability angle.
SPEAKER_02 (34:27):
Unbelievable.
Well, here's someone who won'tbe fighting in Congress anymore.
And what a career! Andhonorably, uh, this is someone
who made it in Washington as awoman, and that there's a lot to
be said for that, Jim.
SPEAKER_01 (34:38):
Oh, absolutely.
38 years she was in in power inin Washington.
And I remember as a beatreporter covering her, and she
was born and raised inBaltimore, Maryland, by the way.
And her father, her father wasthe mayor of Baltimore, and she
took it she would tell the storyhow she kept the books of favors
(35:00):
for her father.
So when somebody came to thedoor asking for a favor, she
looked up and see what you knowwhat did they do to help her
father get re-elected.
So she she learned early onpower politics.
And in an in a DC, which isstill a borderline sexist, she's
a woman who made it to apowerful office.
(35:22):
So I tip my hat off to her forthat.
Uh she was a formidablecompetitor.
SPEAKER_02 (35:27):
Nancy Pelosi retiring at 84.
SPEAKER_01 (35:31):
Yes.
SPEAKER_02 (35:31):
With that, all right, let's get to the end of
the show, and then we'll let youfinish it on the uh positive
note.
We do really have some positiveshere today.
SPEAKER_01 (35:39):
Uh food stamps.
Yeah, well, we're it looks likewe're heading to full benefits,
at least this court challengedirecting USDA to go 100%, find
money somehow, somehow, withinUSDA.
And as we've said before,there's billions floating around
here or there.
What whatever.
Now, the administration hasappealed it, so they could win
an appeal, but uh at least we'vegot uh 65% of the November food
(36:06):
stamp payments uh you know goingout.
And as far as the needy people,I think that's a good thing.
SPEAKER_02 (36:13):
I I agree with you.
This is uh really creating uhtrouble for people.
Okay, folks, if you like thisshow, you got Mr.
Wiesmeyer's email down there,Wiesmeyer at Gmail.
I always let Jim finish on apositive note.
And I don't know why there'd beany reason to not finish on a
positive note.
This is America, it's the bestcountry in the world.
We've had lots of breaking news.
Even upon filming on this, Iknow how I would finish the
(36:36):
show, but it's not my show.
It's Wiesmeyer's perspectives.
How would you like to close theshow, sir?
SPEAKER_01 (36:41):
Well, at least we have information coming out next
Friday on the size of the U.S.
corn and soybean crops, on thedemand cycle we're gonna see, as
we talked about before.
We're going to see on November10th, Monday, whether or not uh
China gives a waiver to that 10%tariff on U.S.
soybeans.
(37:02):
And if so, that's very good newsbecause it makes uh U.S.
soybeans quite competitive.
On the meat side, we've got towatch policy, Tommy, because of
what we we uh you know, wementioned what Trump said in his
True Social thing, as far aschallenging the packers and the
companies they're in.
(37:23):
And then on the cattle side, wealso have to watch the screw
worm development and theeventual reopening.
As far as the government, Ithink reason will eventually
prevail.
I just don't know how they'regoing to get this country, at
least the U.S.
government, uh, you know, youknow, back to work.
But as you saw intramarket todayin the equities market, when
(37:45):
they thought that the that therewas a solution to this, you saw
the equity market shoot up froma 500 downturn initially, as you
said, in the NASDAQ in themorning uh to only down 100 or
so.
I don't know how they ended uhdown 50 in the Nasdaq.
Wow.
See that that shows you therethey must sense well it is at
(38:08):
least they're talking, andthat's a good thing.
So that that's where we're at.
If you want to add somepositives, come you know, you
you know, come at it.
SPEAKER_02 (38:17):
I think the positive is that this country's free, and
that the fact that you and I getto do this every week is really
awesome.
Mr.
Jim Weesmeyer coming to you fromWashington, D.C.
Time Grassafi, I'm at NesvicTrading here in Nashville.
Everyone, thanks for watching.
Please click like and subscribe.
Tell a friend about this.
This video is free and open tothe public.
Have a great week, everyone.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Ruthie's Table 4
For more than 30 years The River Cafe in London, has been the home-from-home of artists, architects, designers, actors, collectors, writers, activists, and politicians. Michael Caine, Glenn Close, JJ Abrams, Steve McQueen, Victoria and David Beckham, and Lily Allen, are just some of the people who love to call The River Cafe home. On River Cafe Table 4, Rogers sits down with her customers—who have become friends—to talk about food memories. Table 4 explores how food impacts every aspect of our lives. “Foods is politics, food is cultural, food is how you express love, food is about your heritage, it defines who you and who you want to be,” says Rogers. Each week, Rogers invites her guest to reminisce about family suppers and first dates, what they cook, how they eat when performing, the restaurants they choose, and what food they seek when they need comfort. And to punctuate each episode of Table 4, guests such as Ralph Fiennes, Emily Blunt, and Alfonso Cuarón, read their favourite recipe from one of the best-selling River Cafe cookbooks. Table 4 itself, is situated near The River Cafe’s open kitchen, close to the bright pink wood-fired oven and next to the glossy yellow pass, where Ruthie oversees the restaurant. You are invited to take a seat at this intimate table and join the conversation. For more information, recipes, and ingredients, go to https://shoptherivercafe.co.uk/ Web: https://rivercafe.co.uk/ Instagram: www.instagram.com/therivercafelondon/ Facebook: https://en-gb.facebook.com/therivercafelondon/ For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iheartradio app, apple podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com