Barons Contrarian Cover | Negative GDP Details | Fed Rate Cuts? | Unemployment Was Fine | Sell in May? | S&P 500 After Near Bear Markets 1-Year Later

Derek Moore talks through what caused the negative GDP number and compares it to 2022 Q1’s more negative print. Hint, it’s those darn imports and exports. Should you sell in May and go away? Plus, whether the Fed may do anything at the May meeting. Unemployment was ok while inflation hasn’t gone back up so why won’t they cut? What happens 1-year later after an almost bear market (less than -20% drawdown)? All that plus some volatility talk.

 

Components of GDP

Net exports calculation

When markets have a near bear market how much on average is the market higher 1-year later?

What is an almost bear market?

Unemployment review after Friday’s release

Will the Fed cut rates at the May meeting?

Scott Bessent says the 2-year treasury is telling the Fed to cut

Comparing various CPI inflation rates in March

AAII investors still mega bearish

Barrons polls market people who are most bearish in 30 years

Is the Barrons cover a contrarian signal?

Why the Fed didn’t end inflation in 2022, and their rate increases didn’t do anything

Sell in May and go away?

Best historical time periods for returns

 

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Scott Bessent US Treasury Secretary says the Fed needs to cut https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-secretary-scott-bessent-says-225359048.html

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [e-mail]