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July 20, 2025 43 mins

Derek Moore and Shane Skinner give their thoughts on the Fed, interest rates, and the Trump vs. Powell situation. Plus, looking at new data on how much revenue US companies derive from overseas markets. Later the talk about what many get wrong about where their stock market returns come from year over year plus those crazy surveys and inflation expectations. Finally, they talk about what the option market is expecting around TSLA earnings

 

How long are Fed Governor terms?

How long is the term of the Federal Reserve Chair?

Where returns come from changes in revenues, margins, EPS, buybacks, and dividends

Q2 Earnings Season kicks off 

Will earnings beat by more than people expect?

What percentage do S&P 500 Index companies revenues come from overseas?

What about the Mag 7 percentage of foreign earnings?

U of Michigan inflation survey still shows crazy disparity between democrats and republicans

Trump vs Powell debate

Fed interest rate probabilities

Will the Fed lower interest rates in July?

What the options market says about the TSLA earnings move this week

TSLA implied volatility

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Semper Augustus 2021 letter talking about where returns come from over longer periods https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/db64b928-53d6-43a9-a4d0-a9d2f69f76ba.pdf

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com 

 

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