Tariffs | Market Fragility | Mortgage Rate Spread to Treasuries | Analysts Estimates Are Pretty Accurate

Derek Moore previews Palantir, Amazon, and Google earnings implied volatility expectations based on the option market. Plus, how currency movements may or may not mute new tariffs. Later, Derek answers a listener question on why mortgage rates (and bonds) have a spread between their rate and the 10 Year Treasury yield. Plus, digging into new data that shows analysts producing earnings estimates on the S&P 500 Index are pretty accurate as it turns out. Finally, what is market fragility and are we in a fragility period right now?

 

What is market fragility?

Analyst estimates vs actuals show analysts might know what they are doing

30-year mortgage rates vs the 10-year treasury

Why is there a spread above treasuries

What is reinvestment risk on mortgage bonds?

Tariffs impact on markets

How currency moves on the Canadian Dollar, Mexican Peso, and Chinese Yuan may blunt tariffs

Will tariffs cause more onshoring and manufacturing in the US?

Sentiment was tariffs would be used as a threat, then they’ll be short lived, so now what?

 

Mentioned in this Episode

 

Analysts are pretty good at predicting earnings from Sam Ro https://www.tker.co/p/analysts-earnings-estimates-accuracy

 

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

 

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

 

Derek’s book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

 

Contact Derek [e-mail]