I asked rhetorically in a research piece I wrote last week...is Jerome Powell a "con man"?
Of course the answer is a resounding NO. Jay Powell has talked the talk and then walked the walk. He has told us what he thinks, he has told us what he will do, and then he does it, ever since 2018 and the publication of eleven Fed White Papers defining the "new monetary paradigm", which proposed to let inflation rise to whatever level it wanted to without "tolerance bands", to rise high enough to lift the eight-year average rate above 2%, and then if needed apply the Volcker playbook with draconian monetary tightening to bring inflation back down to their target.
I say, "con man" not because Powell has tried to "play us". Rather, he has been fully transparent. But now that is kind of the problem, because he has NO "confidence" that the Fed has tightened policy to a degree where it IS "restrictive enough to finish the job". The word CONFIDENCE was used in a negative way repeatedly during Powell’s most recent post-FOMC meeting press conference. Thus, my play on words, and "con man".
And rather than a dovish stance, he in fact clearly stated that IF the economy continued to grow at a rate above trend, it "could cause the Fed to tighten further".
But what if the economy is already IN a recession...AND...inflation rises again?
And if "stagflation" becomes the dominant macro-trend, what action should investors take to protect their money and wealth?
I discuss this, and SO MUCH MORE, in today's episode of "Money, Markets, and New Age Investing.”
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