August 24, 2025 • 10 mins
Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat about footfall trends. July retail data shows positive signs with spending down only 1.4% compared to 8.5% in June, though footfall decreased by 1.7% as consumers remain cautious with their spending. The warm weather has encouraged more UK residents to holiday at home, redirecting spending into local economies rather than abroad.
• Five key retail sectors (fashion, food and drink, general retail, grocery, health and beauty) all showed improvement in July
• Fashion rebounded from being 10.8% down in June to just 3.2% down in July
• Employment is up 0.7% year-on-year to 4.7%, with youth unemployment rising 14.1%
• Interest rate reductions benefit mortgage holders but impact savers
• The approaching "Golden Quarter" (Halloween through Christmas) will be challenging but crucial
• Early and extended discounting is likely as retailers may over-order based on July's improved performance
• Weather continues to be a significant factor in retail performance
Looking ahead to August, if the good weather continues and staycations remain popular, we might see further improvements in retail spending figures
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
I'm delighted to be joined byDan Wells, CEO at Rendell
Intelligence and Insights, againfor our monthly chat.
Hi, Dan.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Simon, how are?
Speaker 1 (00:10):
you doing.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm very well.
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Good, thank you Good.
I enjoyed some at the time ofrecording some really nice
weather, so it always makes youfeel better, which is hopefully
what we'll find in the results.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yes, I do have some more positive news for you.
I know we've been waiting forit for a number of months, so
it's not we haven't turned thecorner, but we have seen some
more positive results on these,particularly on the spend side
this month, which is great news.
So I'll just quickly runthrough footfall, because
clearly you know, for mostbusinesses, if you don't have
(00:42):
the footfall you don't have thespend.
So footfall as reported bySensomatic, which is footfall,
you don't have the spend.
So footfall as reported bysensomatic, which is footfall
into stores, was 1.7 below july2024 last month.
So a drop in customers goinginto stores, which actually is
similar to the result frombeauclair, who tracks spending
in towns and cities, and theyreported a drop of 1.4 percent.
(01:06):
So slightly better on the spendside than on the football side,
which is interesting, and amuch better result than June
where sales in towns and citieswere down eight and a half
percent.
So we're not out the woods.
It's still negative, butactually it's it's.
You know it has bounced back alittle and what was interesting
was that the number of customersgoing in it's just because
(01:29):
they're quite cautious aboutspending.
So those customers who didspend would probably buy as much
.
The transaction numbers weredown, so they're just being a
(01:52):
little bit cautious, but much,much better result, much more
where we want it to be good.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
So we've finally got some positive news, but let's
not get carried away as ever.
Let's temper it with the realityof where we're at yeah so, as I
said at the start, weathermakes us feel better.
I mean, in fairness, we have agood run this year, haven't we?
There's yeah, and theseheadlines muted it's going to be
the hottest year on record, thedriest year on record, etc.
Etc.
Certainly for the for the uk,some conflicting stories, but
(02:22):
what I've been reading is lotsmore people stayed at home or
will stay at home, ie not traveloutside of the uk for holiday
this year, so that that musthave an immediate impact oh,
absolutely, because clearlyspend is going to go back into
towns, uk towns and cities,which, of course, is what both
claim measure.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
So we're going to see some of that positive spend
coming back into our economy andactually the five sectors that
that account for the majority ofspend, which are fashion, food
and drink aka hospitality,general retail, grocery and
health and beauty alsosignificant improvements in
spend in those categories injuly versus june, which is
(03:02):
really good and also better thanjuly last year, also better
than July last year.
I mean, july last year waspretty much a dance square.
It wasn't particularly great,it wasn't awful, awful, but it
wasn't like this year, with lotsof hot weather, hot, sunny
weather.
So we've seen much betterresults in food and drink
Clearly people can sit out andeat and it's pleasant and lovely
and also in fashion.
(03:23):
Actually it was 3.2% below July2024 last month, but in June it
was 10.8% below 2024.
So we've seen an improvementthere, which is really good news
for the fashion industrybecause they, as we know, very
weather dependent and very shortseasons.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Yeah, absolutely Absolutely.
And again in the news you'vegot, at the time of recording
River Island play, ofaccessories to all those really
difficult trading environments,again starting to to flush out,
unfortunately, some of thosethat have struggled yes, and I
mean it's sad, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:59):
but you know, I suppose, the longer you're in
this industry and you know I'vebeen in it now for 35 years- too
many, too many years to mention.
I know, I know, but you do seeretailers which were stalwarts
in my teenage years river island.
You know all of those guys whoI used to shop at.
You see them come and go and Ithink it's you have to accept
(04:19):
that if you don't stay on top ofthings, it is the nature of
retail.
It is very, very dangerous outthere in that market the tell.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
The tell there was used to shop at so yes, you know
that we all love woolies, butwe all stopped shopping there,
didn't we?
So we're, we're a nation ofshopkeepers.
I've said it before, but wealso work with our feet, don't
we?
Oh, absolutely, you're notrelevant.
You don't survive,unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
No, absolutely.
And you know, in this new erawhere everything is immediate
and digital and you know it'svery transient, it is very much
harder to stay relevant, and soI'm not surprised that some I
mean, if you look at claire'saccessories, you know you can
get what is in claire'saccessories in every supermarket
(05:04):
in the uk.
Home bargains sell it,everywhere, sells it and it's
low margin and it needs highvolume and they're in very
highly rented store locations inshopping centers.
So I'm not surprised.
It isn't the first time they'vebeen through this.
No, and it, you know it comes,comes through eventually it does
.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
You can't.
You can't keep avoiding theinevitable, unfortunately, but I
suppose to temper the the goodnews that we we've had little of
in the last probably 18 months.
I'll talk a bit of doom andgloom.
So you know, interest rateshave gone down.
Good news if you've got amortgage and it's not a fair
trade.
Good news if you're buyingstuff.
Not great if you're saving.
(05:40):
So double-edged sword.
Employment is half a percent upyear on year.
So it's 4.7%, highest in fouryears, which we kind of
predicted a while ago, if yourecall that some of these
government changes, that wouldbe one of the outcomes,
unfortunately and it's very trueand interesting in youth
unemployment.
So by 14.1 percent, which Ikind of put down, having just
(06:04):
seen my son go through some ofthis.
A lot less apprenticeshipscoming out of college, a lot
less casual jobs.
You know there's talk again ofrecord numbers of people going
to uni.
Is that a consequence of therebeing fewer options, etc.
So one to keep an eye on.
I'd unfortunately predict thatnumber's going to keep growing
(06:25):
and as ever, you know, retail,the golden quarter that we come
into, will will mean that maybeeven grows further for some,
unfortunately.
So there's still somesignificant headwind on the way,
but we're I suppose we're kindof turning into that home
straight now, aren't we where,if you're one of the grocers and
you rely on this goal for aquarter, you can kind of start
(06:46):
to see halloween.
You can start to see thatfriday, cyber monday, week,
month, whatever it is now youcan.
You know, I spoke to somebodythis morning and they were just
finishing their christmascampaign, so all of that's
coming into view.
Isn't it starting to come intofocus where it's been a long way
off?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
absolutely, yeah, I mean I'm I work with beauclair,
as you know, and we're planninga webinar on the 25th of
september to you know, sort ofreally wrap up the three
quarters and start to forecastwhat's happening in the fourth
quarter of the year.
So we're, you know, and that'sonly a few weeks away, and so we
really are on the cusp of, youknow, the most important trading
period.
(07:23):
I mean, you know, the good newsis that these five sectors have
done better and groceryactually was sort of just just
below where we were last year,last month, so that's good.
Health and beauty was flat orjust slightly above.
So that's, people are clearlybuying sun, cream and makeup.
You know, clearly that isn'tdiscretionary, but you know
(07:43):
discretionary items, you knowthey're the ones, especially
when they're high margin, highcost, like fashion, are going to
, you know, be in there for thecut for many people.
So it is, it's, it's, it'sgoing to be challenging.
Again, it's going to bechallenging if the younger
people are feeling the pinchmore than you know, us oldies,
then that may be good forchristmas, because actually us
(08:05):
oldies are the ones oftencontrol majority of the purse,
particularly around grocery.
So we'll have to wait and see.
But yeah it's.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
It's not going to be a q4 without its challenges,
that's for sure no, and it neveris just supposed to be better
to be balanced and and pragmatic.
Again, as a consumer, you hopeit means that there's better
deals.
I mean again, if we talked alot about the one of last year
and then post the golden quarterevent, lots of discounting
(08:34):
brought forward.
If I remember rightly, therewas kind of a real blur from
black friday onwards, wasn'tthere?
People were discounting anddiscounting pretty much all the
way from that point in Novemberonwards.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, absolutely, and it happens every year.
To be fair and this, I don'tknow, this may actually give a
bit of a false dawn for someretailers and they may buy too
much stock, thinking that theseresults here are starting to get
back to where we were and be alittle bit more optimistic,
which may mean that we've gotsome more severe discounting
(09:08):
coming through short of four.
The food and drink industry isgoing to have a tough time
because wages, as we've talkedabout, have gone up through
labour shortages and salaryincreases, so that's going to be
tough for a lot of people.
Actually, it's continuing to betough and fashion I think we
may see some real bargains ifthey've bought too much summer
(09:28):
stock and haven't managed toshift it.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Yeah, yeah, now's the time to get it, I think,
because we've stopped to turninto the darker evenings.
So from a consumer point ofview, again, as per last year,
it could be a really goodopportunity to get some early
bargains, get some earlychristmas presents and other
bits.
But yeah, it'd be interestingto see how those again january
sale type organizationscertainly your furniture and
(09:52):
your bedding and those bigconsidered purchases fair,
because those are the thingswe'll potentially pull back on
yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
I mean, the good news is that we're sitting in July
with a result that isn't tooshocking, because June was
pretty dire, which isencouraging.
So we just have to wait forAugust and see what that
delivers, really, because againwe've had a good month
weather-wise and if people havestayed home, hopefully that will
have boosted spend.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Perfect.
Well, on that positive note,for a long time in many of our
chats we will pause thereFingers crossed.
July to August looks good andwe'll speak next month.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Brilliant Thanks, Simon.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Thank you.
Welcome to the Productivity Podcast.
I'm delighted to be joined byDan Wells, CEO at Rendell
Intelligence and Insights, againfor our monthly chat.
Hi, Dan.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
Simon, how are?
Speaker 1 (00:10):
you doing.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
I'm very well.
How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Good, thank you Good.
I enjoyed some at the time ofrecording some really nice
weather, so it always makes youfeel better, which is hopefully
what we'll find in the results.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yes, I do have some more positive news for you.
I know we've been waiting forit for a number of months, so
it's not we haven't turned thecorner, but we have seen some
more positive results on these,particularly on the spend side
this month, which is great news.
So I'll just quickly runthrough footfall, because
clearly you know, for mostbusinesses, if you don't have
(00:42):
the footfall you don't have thespend.
So footfall as reported bySensomatic, which is footfall,
you don't have the spend.
So footfall as reported bysensomatic, which is footfall
into stores, was 1.7 below july2024 last month.
So a drop in customers goinginto stores, which actually is
similar to the result frombeauclair, who tracks spending
in towns and cities, and theyreported a drop of 1.4 percent.
(01:06):
So slightly better on the spendside than on the football side,
which is interesting, and amuch better result than June
where sales in towns and citieswere down eight and a half
percent.
So we're not out the woods.
It's still negative, butactually it's it's.
You know it has bounced back alittle and what was interesting
was that the number of customersgoing in it's just because
(01:29):
they're quite cautious aboutspending.
So those customers who didspend would probably buy as much
.
The transaction numbers weredown, so they're just being a
(01:52):
little bit cautious, but much,much better result, much more
where we want it to be good.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
So we've finally got some positive news, but let's
not get carried away as ever.
Let's temper it with the realityof where we're at yeah so, as I
said at the start, weathermakes us feel better.
I mean, in fairness, we have agood run this year, haven't we?
There's yeah, and theseheadlines muted it's going to be
the hottest year on record, thedriest year on record, etc.
Etc.
Certainly for the for the uk,some conflicting stories, but
(02:22):
what I've been reading is lotsmore people stayed at home or
will stay at home, ie not traveloutside of the uk for holiday
this year, so that that musthave an immediate impact oh,
absolutely, because clearlyspend is going to go back into
towns, uk towns and cities,which, of course, is what both
claim measure.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
So we're going to see some of that positive spend
coming back into our economy andactually the five sectors that
that account for the majority ofspend, which are fashion, food
and drink aka hospitality,general retail, grocery and
health and beauty alsosignificant improvements in
spend in those categories injuly versus june, which is
(03:02):
really good and also better thanjuly last year, also better
than July last year.
I mean, july last year waspretty much a dance square.
It wasn't particularly great,it wasn't awful, awful, but it
wasn't like this year, with lotsof hot weather, hot, sunny
weather.
So we've seen much betterresults in food and drink
Clearly people can sit out andeat and it's pleasant and lovely
and also in fashion.
(03:23):
Actually it was 3.2% below July2024 last month, but in June it
was 10.8% below 2024.
So we've seen an improvementthere, which is really good news
for the fashion industrybecause they, as we know, very
weather dependent and very shortseasons.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Yeah, absolutely Absolutely.
And again in the news you'vegot, at the time of recording
River Island play, ofaccessories to all those really
difficult trading environments,again starting to to flush out,
unfortunately, some of thosethat have struggled yes, and I
mean it's sad, isn't it?
Speaker 2 (03:59):
but you know, I suppose, the longer you're in
this industry and you know I'vebeen in it now for 35 years- too
many, too many years to mention.
I know, I know, but you do seeretailers which were stalwarts
in my teenage years river island.
You know all of those guys whoI used to shop at.
You see them come and go and Ithink it's you have to accept
(04:19):
that if you don't stay on top ofthings, it is the nature of
retail.
It is very, very dangerous outthere in that market the tell.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
The tell there was used to shop at so yes, you know
that we all love woolies, butwe all stopped shopping there,
didn't we?
So we're, we're a nation ofshopkeepers.
I've said it before, but wealso work with our feet, don't
we?
Oh, absolutely, you're notrelevant.
You don't survive,unfortunately.
Speaker 2 (04:42):
No, absolutely.
And you know, in this new erawhere everything is immediate
and digital and you know it'svery transient, it is very much
harder to stay relevant, and soI'm not surprised that some I
mean, if you look at claire'saccessories, you know you can
get what is in claire'saccessories in every supermarket
(05:04):
in the uk.
Home bargains sell it,everywhere, sells it and it's
low margin and it needs highvolume and they're in very
highly rented store locations inshopping centers.
So I'm not surprised.
It isn't the first time they'vebeen through this.
No, and it, you know it comes,comes through eventually it does
.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
You can't.
You can't keep avoiding theinevitable, unfortunately, but I
suppose to temper the the goodnews that we we've had little of
in the last probably 18 months.
I'll talk a bit of doom andgloom.
So you know, interest rateshave gone down.
Good news if you've got amortgage and it's not a fair
trade.
Good news if you're buyingstuff.
Not great if you're saving.
(05:40):
So double-edged sword.
Employment is half a percent upyear on year.
So it's 4.7%, highest in fouryears, which we kind of
predicted a while ago, if yourecall that some of these
government changes, that wouldbe one of the outcomes,
unfortunately and it's very trueand interesting in youth
unemployment.
So by 14.1 percent, which Ikind of put down, having just
(06:04):
seen my son go through some ofthis.
A lot less apprenticeshipscoming out of college, a lot
less casual jobs.
You know there's talk again ofrecord numbers of people going
to uni.
Is that a consequence of therebeing fewer options, etc.
So one to keep an eye on.
I'd unfortunately predict thatnumber's going to keep growing
(06:25):
and as ever, you know, retail,the golden quarter that we come
into, will will mean that maybeeven grows further for some,
unfortunately.
So there's still somesignificant headwind on the way,
but we're I suppose we're kindof turning into that home
straight now, aren't we where,if you're one of the grocers and
you rely on this goal for aquarter, you can kind of start
(06:46):
to see halloween.
You can start to see thatfriday, cyber monday, week,
month, whatever it is now youcan.
You know, I spoke to somebodythis morning and they were just
finishing their christmascampaign, so all of that's
coming into view.
Isn't it starting to come intofocus where it's been a long way
off?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
absolutely, yeah, I mean I'm I work with beauclair,
as you know, and we're planninga webinar on the 25th of
september to you know, sort ofreally wrap up the three
quarters and start to forecastwhat's happening in the fourth
quarter of the year.
So we're, you know, and that'sonly a few weeks away, and so we
really are on the cusp of, youknow, the most important trading
period.
(07:23):
I mean, you know, the good newsis that these five sectors have
done better and groceryactually was sort of just just
below where we were last year,last month, so that's good.
Health and beauty was flat orjust slightly above.
So that's, people are clearlybuying sun, cream and makeup.
You know, clearly that isn'tdiscretionary, but you know
(07:43):
discretionary items, you knowthey're the ones, especially
when they're high margin, highcost, like fashion, are going to
, you know, be in there for thecut for many people.
So it is, it's, it's, it'sgoing to be challenging.
Again, it's going to bechallenging if the younger
people are feeling the pinchmore than you know, us oldies,
then that may be good forchristmas, because actually us
(08:05):
oldies are the ones oftencontrol majority of the purse,
particularly around grocery.
So we'll have to wait and see.
But yeah it's.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
It's not going to be a q4 without its challenges,
that's for sure no, and it neveris just supposed to be better
to be balanced and and pragmatic.
Again, as a consumer, you hopeit means that there's better
deals.
I mean again, if we talked alot about the one of last year
and then post the golden quarterevent, lots of discounting
(08:34):
brought forward.
If I remember rightly, therewas kind of a real blur from
black friday onwards, wasn'tthere?
People were discounting anddiscounting pretty much all the
way from that point in Novemberonwards.
Speaker 2 (08:46):
Yeah, absolutely, and it happens every year.
To be fair and this, I don'tknow, this may actually give a
bit of a false dawn for someretailers and they may buy too
much stock, thinking that theseresults here are starting to get
back to where we were and be alittle bit more optimistic,
which may mean that we've gotsome more severe discounting
(09:08):
coming through short of four.
The food and drink industry isgoing to have a tough time
because wages, as we've talkedabout, have gone up through
labour shortages and salaryincreases, so that's going to be
tough for a lot of people.
Actually, it's continuing to betough and fashion I think we
may see some real bargains ifthey've bought too much summer
(09:28):
stock and haven't managed toshift it.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
Yeah, yeah, now's the time to get it, I think,
because we've stopped to turninto the darker evenings.
So from a consumer point ofview, again, as per last year,
it could be a really goodopportunity to get some early
bargains, get some earlychristmas presents and other
bits.
But yeah, it'd be interestingto see how those again january
sale type organizationscertainly your furniture and
(09:52):
your bedding and those bigconsidered purchases fair,
because those are the thingswe'll potentially pull back on
yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
I mean, the good news is that we're sitting in July
with a result that isn't tooshocking, because June was
pretty dire, which isencouraging.
So we just have to wait forAugust and see what that
delivers, really, because againwe've had a good month
weather-wise and if people havestayed home, hopefully that will
have boosted spend.
Speaker 1 (10:17):
Perfect.
Well, on that positive note,for a long time in many of our
chats we will pause thereFingers crossed.
July to August looks good andwe'll speak next month.
Speaker 2 (10:30):
Brilliant Thanks, Simon.
Speaker 1 (10:31):
Thank you.
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